CONTACT: Ned Leonard

(703) 907-6159 or

info@co2andclimate.org

GREENING EARTH SOCIETY TO EPA: PUT YOUR GREAT LAKES STUDY ON ICE

(Arlington, VA — April 27, 1999) In a special report to Greening Earth Society, science advisor Robert C. Balling, Jr., reviews data concerning ice coverage on the Great Lakes. Balling, who is director of the Arizona State University Office of Climatology, finds that, over the course of 31 years, the number of days with "some ice coverage" has increased at a statistically significant rate. This finding is contrary to predictions from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency-sponsored research summarized by EPA’s Joel Smith in 1991 and which found a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide would "reduce ice cover by 1 to 2½ months."

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates nineteen ice-observation stations on the Great Lakes shoreline within the United States. Three are on the south shore of Lake Superior, four on the western shore of Lake Michigan, five on the western shore of Lake Huron, five on the southern shore of Lake Erie, and two are on the southern shore of Lake Ontario. Although some of the stations were operational in the 1950s, virtually all of have been in operation since 1967. During the Great Lakes ice season spanning November to April, observers record the number of days ice is visible on the water and the number of days solid ice covers the entire field of view.

Assembling the data into monthly summaries, Balling computed the number of days in the ice season when any ice is visible and the percentage with total ice coverage. The seasonal data were averaged for all 19 stations and show an average of 41 percent of the days with some visible ice and 24 percent with ice covering the entire view. While there is no trend in the percentage of days with total ice coverage, the number of days with some ice coverage has increased from 35 percent in the 1960s to a mean value of over 45 percent within the last decade.

"Once again we find that the predictions from the numerical models of climate are not supported by the empirical data," Balling writes. "Scientists predict a decrease in Great Lakes ice and the historical record shows an increase. Many may choose to believe the theoretical predictions of the models, but in this case (and in many other cases) the facts get in the way. The captain of the Titanic had a little problem with ice, and his ship sunk. Could the same happen to the global warming juggernaut?"

Click Here to review the study.