In coverage of the global economic downturn Hungary is
cited as an example by numerous international news outlets of a
once-prosperous country that has turned into a crisis-stricken mess in
just a decade. Having returned to Hungary during Kádár’s “soft
dictatorship”, Alex Bandy, the Hungary correspondent for the Associated
Press, has first-hand experience of what has transpired.
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The Reform Alliance, a loose association of employers
and academics, for weeks has been trying to convince Hungary’s
gridlocked political elite of the need for fundamental reforms. Former
finance minister (1989-90 and 1994-95) and leader of the alliance’s
working group on economic policy, László Békesi, spoke to The Budapest
Times about why he is confident that the alliance’s set of proposals
will be put into practice sooner or later.
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A complex cocktail of absurd monetary policies and
dangerous investment practices has staggered the world’s economies, but
the root cause of plunging stock indexes, a paralysing global credit
crunch, and terrifying economic indicators can ultimately be traced,
according to Lászlo György, University Lecturer on Economics at
Budapest University of Technology and Economic Sciences, to a pervasive
psychology of debt and a misunderstanding of what money is and who
controls it.
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By the beginning of 2009 it has become obvious that the
Roma policy pursued in the past decades, and especially that of the
left-liberal government of the last seven years, cannot be continued.
The need for a change in direction is clearly reflected by the degree,
and intensity, of popular protests in relation to crimes committed by
Roma people in two important county seats, Miskolc and Veszprém.
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The publisher of The Budapest Sun, the Győr-based Lapcom
Kiadó, neither confirmed nor denied last week that its Thursday issue
was to be the paper’s last. Last Friday phone lines to the newspaper
did not work.
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As has been the custom for nearly eight decades, the new
President of the United States was inaugurated on 20 January. The
significance of this momentous event was revealed when the US
Ambassador to Hungary April H. Foley almost broke down in tears during
her speech.
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The financial crisis, which is now hitting the new member states severely,
highlights the shortcomings of the existing institutional architecture in Europe. Current strains reflect a revaluation of risks
but they also result from policy mistakes. For many years, growth in the new
member states has relied on massive inflows of foreign capital that are now
being called into question. Some of the non euro-area new member states suffer
from serious vulnerabilities, to which policy has been slow to respond.
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The Budapest Mayor's Office issued a full-scale smog
warning on 11 January as air pollution levels, exacerbated by power
stations that had switched from gas to oil amid the ongoing gas supply
crisis, rocketed to several times the EU's safety limit.
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Russian gas supplies running into Hungary were
completely cut off last Tuesday after Ukraine reduced the scheduled
supply of 38 million cubic metres per day by a quarter last Monday. The
same day, the amount of Russian gas delivered via Slovakia and Austria
to western Hungary was halved, leaving Hungary with just a trickle of
gas imports. With Central Europe in the grip of a winter freeze, gas
consumption in Hungary was about 70 billion cubic metres a day when the
effects of the Ukraine-Russia gas row hit home.
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Against analysts’ expectations, the rate-setting
Monetary Council of the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) decided to lower
the base interest rate by 50 basis points to 11% last Monday. The last
time the council changed the base rate was on 22 October, before a
four-day weekend, when consensus was reached in an extraordinary
session to raise it by 300 points to 11.5%, in order to fight off
speculation on the national currency. Despite the recent decrease, the
Hungarian base rate remains one of the highest in the European Union.
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The employees of the Komárom and Debrecen-based
electronic parts manufacturer Foxconn will be part of the biggest
layoff the country has seen since the global financial crisis began to
take its toll on Hungary. CEO Péter Tálos announced last Friday that
some 1,500 employees of one of the biggest global suppliers of Nokia
will be fired before the end of the year.
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As a direct result of the economic crisis jobs are being
lost, therefore enterprises will receive HUF 1.4 trillion (EUR 5.25
billion) over the course of the next two years, Economy Minister Gordon
Bajnai announced at last Thursday’s Economic Summit. Before any company
manager had the chance to spontaneously hug everyone around them, the
minister added that there will not be any new spending associated with
the stimulus package, but instead a rearrangement of EU funds and
government-guaranteed bank loans can be expected.
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The worst
chapter began with the 1919 Trianon treaty and the latest, but definitely not
the last, in the book of Slovak-Hungarian relations was written on 1 November
in Dunajska Streda, at a football game between DAC, the team of ethnic
Hungarian city Dunaszerdahely and Slovan Bratislava. Local policemen stormed
Hungarian nationals, who were at the game to support the home team and to
protest the burning of a Hungarian flag at an earlier game.
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Hungary's
vulnerability is not exceptional, either within the region or in comparison
with other emerging markets. We can easily find an example of a country at
greater risk, despite having a developed market, in Denmark.
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“Hungary is in the middle of the storm”, and
“the Anglo-Saxon financial model will disappear” were just two of the opinions
voiced at a conference in Budapest last Wednesday, where the global economic
upheaval was on the agenda. Across town, as if any further proof were needed
that Hungary is well and truly reaping the whirlwind, the National Bank of
Hungary was announcing a base rate hike from 8.5% to 11.5% in a bid to protect
the vulnerable forint from speculative attacks.
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In less
than 48 hours after the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) left the base interest
rate unchanged at 8.5%, the Monetary Council found itself back around the table
last Wednesday at an extraordinary session, hiking the rate by 300 base points
to 11.5% in a bid to defend the floundering forint and attract investors T-bill
auctions, after several cancellations due to lack of interest.
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A high
level crisis summit was held in Budapest last Saturday to discuss the threat to
Hungary from international financial chaos.
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Four people
were killed and another three, one of them a young German girl, were in
critical condition after a train crash 30km southeast of Budapest last Monday.
Signal failure was initially blamed for the disaster, which prompted the
resignation of the chairman of the board of state railway company MÁV and the
transport minister.
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The most
recent wave of the ongoing global financial crisis has hit Hungary along with the whole of Europe. Gábor Békés, research fellow at the Institute of Economics
of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (MTA) and former
analyst at Lehman Brothers (2001-03), says in his summary of the impacts while
looking down the uncertain road ahead.
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Many people
regard Hungary’s past as closed and are unwilling to talk about it. Historian
Krisztián Ungváry, by contrast, stands accused of slander in two court cases
because he openly criticised the political past of two public figures. “As a
historian it is not my duty just to bury myself in books. Instead I have to
take a public stance and use my knowledge in the fight for democratic values,”
Ungváry said. The determination with which he answers reflects the fact that he
has already withstood many public battles. |
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I grew up
surrounded by animals. In the ’50s in the village we kept rabbits, chickens,
pigs, sheep, geese and ducks, which were allowed to move around relatively
freely in our yard and garden. I was only at war with the geese: barely a day
went by without bruises and cuts, and on many occasions my father had to rescue
me from the attackers with purposeful steps. Some of the miscreants were
sentenced to a premature death in the oven.
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István
Kocsis, who became CEO of Budapest Transport Company (BKV) at the start of
September, is optimistic about its future. He contends that BKV is not loss-making because it operates
badly, and believes that predictable conditions, rather than greater state
support, represent the solution to the problems of the company which treats
Budapesters to 1.3 billion journeys each year.
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Keith C.
Smith of Center for Strategic & International Studies believes corruption,
and not dependence, is the threat to Western Europe
from Russian energy trade. He criticised the EU for what he sees as its
pusillanimous reluctance to stand up to Russia. |
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It has
almost become a cliché that the current political gridlock in Hungary may be resolved in three different ways: the dissolution of
parliament and early elections; setting up a new “caretaker” or expert
government; or securing a majority for the Socialists’ programme. In reality,
there are more possible scenarios than that – especially from an economic point
of view – because what happens and when is of vital importance.
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Russia was
isolated but defiant at the end of last week as the diplomatic storm raged over
its military intervention in Georgia and its recognition last Tuesday of the
independence of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
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The
government has finally ended months of speculation by revealing its ideas on
tax reform. Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány released last Wednesday a plan in
which he envisaged cuts of HUF 1.2 trillion (EUR 5.05 billion) over four years.
The streamlining would begin next year with cuts totalling HUF 300 billion (EUR
1.26 billion) – the best indication yet of what the 2009 budget could contain.
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A former
equities broker at the Hungarian K & H bank was sentenced to eight years in
prison by a Budapest court last Thursday after being found guilty of massive
embezzlement and misuse of over HUF 20 billion (EUR 84.57 billion) of
investors’ money.
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The city of New
Orleans, Louisiana - part of a metropolitan area of some one million
people - is preparing for the arrival on Monday of Hurricane Gustav,
which could be as devastating as Hurricane Katrina that three years ago
flooded much of the city and left at least 1400 people dead. VOA's
Barry Wood has the latest on how New Orleans is preparing for the storm.
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I was in
Somogy County in December 2007 when Hungary entered the Schengen agreement. The
photo coverage in the news provided some food for thought. Seeing politicians
dismantling border barriers reminded me of pictures of the German attack on
Poland on 1st September 1939 – at that time, doing away with borders by armed
force. Today, European borders are dismantled by common accord. The following
is a personal interpretation by a foreigner of a sensitive Hungarian issue.
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Hungary opposes several points of the Common
Agricultural Policy (CAP) "health check" and some sharp disputes are
expected this autumn between Hungary and the European Commission.
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