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What is the central political system? |
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Written by Vision Consulting
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Friday, 07 August 2009 |
Fidesz chairman Viktor Orbán has been giving programmatic speeches and writing programmatic articles during the summer heatwave. His thoughts on the arrival of the right-wing period and the development of the central party system can be interpreted as a political message and not simply as a situation analysis.
Told you so
A year ago Orbán said in his traditional speech at the summer university organised by Fidesz in Transylvania that the neo-liberal economic course and social policy thinking were in crisis. It is logical that this was reinforced in his speech this year in Bálványos: the world economic crisis has in fact necessitated large-scale corrections.
Tarred with same brush
An important and longstanding element of Fidesz’s rhetoric is connecting the errors and crimes of the period before the change of regime with its political criticism of the MSZP (and the liberals) after the change of regime. Fidesz places state socialism and the neoliberal period on one platform, using as ammunition the legal and personnel continuity between the Socialist-era MSZMP and the current day MSZP.
Third Way debate
Neoliberal has not become a left-wing invention, of course, since its emblematic representatives were such anti-communists as Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. It is true that the essence of the European leftwing’s “Third Way” was that it tried to adapt left-wing concepts to the requirements of global capitalism (the neoliberal order). There are intense ongoing debates on the success of the experiment. The aim was precisely what Orbán is now claiming to be the exclusive preserve of the right wing: saving the welfare state under global capitalism.
It is mistaken, however, to expect explanations of political philosophy. Theory is often used by politicians as an “illustration” of practice in a very vague fashion.
Bad for world, bad for Hungary
The essence of Orbán’s analysis is that a certain political course had failed on a world scale, so it is a “historical necessity” for that change to also occur in Hungary. The clear political aim of Fidesz – and any opposition party – is to make the transfer of power appear to be of greater symbolic significance. What is really important in what Orbán has to say, therefore, is not the analysis of world processes, but what is happening in Hungary. Orbán is primarily interested in the arrival of the Hungarian right-wing period, rather than the European one.
No need to compromise
The right-wing period refers to Fidesz’s expectation of a sweeping victory at the 2010 general elections. The party is anticipating a radical change to the political system. Based on current levels of support, Fidesz would gain an absolute majority in the new parliament, allowing it to form either a one-party or a coalition government, and could even gain a constitutional majority. Orbán described this constellation as a central political system.
There would be no reason or need for Fidesz to govern together with anyone else. A future Orbán government would not have members from either Jobbik or the MSZP, said the former – and most probably future – premier.
Ideology of arguments
The basis of favourable European opinion of Fidesz is that it does not have any official relationship with Jobbik. Only the development of an openly confrontational rhetorical relationship between them could be better than that. It is no longer possible to claim that votes for Jobbik are lost votes, because Jobbik looks almost certain to clear the five per cent threshold to enter parliament, but an argument can be made that in a central party system it is not worth voting for parties incapable of forming a government. Fidesz therefore is using arguments of power, rather than ideology, against Jobbik.
Far-right risk
A further part of Orbán’s line of thought is that the strengthening of Jobbik serves the interests of the MSZP, because former MSZP-SZDSZ voters alarmed by the far right will run back to those parties.
Orbán warned that a weakening of Fidesz from any side could lead to the MSZP retaining some of its power. The “central political system” theory therefore is largely Fidesz’s response to the challenge posed by Jobbik. In addition, Fidesz’s politics are so flexible that it is capable of lifting any issue that becomes popular (including those introduced by Jobbik) into its programme and communications, so Fidesz as the only catch-all party still standing will tower above all its rivals in the current political landscape.
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