One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

Few House seats at risk in 2000

By Stuart Rothenberg/CNN

WASHINGTON CNN) -- The Democrats need to pick up just a handful of House seats to retake control of that chamber for the first time since the 1994 GOP landslide. But that won't be a piece of cake, since relatively few seats are at risk this year.

The Democrats need a net gain of six seats to hold a majority, (assuming Independents Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Virgil Goode of Virginia hold their seats). The party picked up seats in 1996 and 1998, and the Republicans were on the defensive nationally both times. But the presidential race provides a much less certain political environment. Since the party capturing the White House normally, but not always, gains seats in the House of Representatives, both parties worry about the top of the ticket.

Unlike 1994, when an anti-incumbent mood helped push Democrats out of power, 2000 looks to be more favorable to incumbents. Voters still distrust politicians, but they aren't showing the anger that they did early in the 1990s. A strong economy is part of the reason.

But incumbents have another advantage in 2000 that they didn't have in 1992 or 1994. Congressional districts haven't been redrawn since the 1992 elections, so incumbents have had time to get to know their districts and their voters. In addition, any Democrat who won in 1994 is a proven survivor, as is any Republican who made it through 1996 and 1998.

Finally, add in the fact that few districts with clear partisan tendencies are currently represented by members of the "wrong" party, and it's easy to see why major changes aren't expected in the House in the 2000 elections.

But the Democrats don't need a major wave to re-take the House, and the prospect of the Democrats cherry-picking a six-seat gain has both parties, political action committees and interest groups focused in on the battle for control of the House.

Much of the attention is on the 34 open seats -- nine Democratic and 25 Republican -- and particularly those dozen or so that are competitive. The GOP open seats have occurred because two House Republicans are running for governor, four are in Senate races, and 18 are retiring. By contest, only three House Democrats are retiring, while three are running for the Senate and one is running for governor. One Democrat and one Republican have been defeated for renomination.

At least two seats held by Republicans who are abiding by a three-term limit pledge, one in Washington and one in Oklahoma, are at risk of falling to the Democrats. But more than a half dozen other GOP open seats also are likely to see competitive contests.

Republicans have reason to be concerned about a handful of normally Republican districts that are open this year and that could fall to strong Democratic challengers. The seats include John Kasich's in Ohio, John Porter's in Illinois, Bill McCollum's in Florida and Bob Franks' in New Jersey.

The Democrats have a handful of their own open seats that are particularly strong Republican targets. The list includes Owen Pickett's in Virginia, Ron Klink's in Pennsylvania and Debbie Stabenow's in Michigan.

In addition to the open seats in play this year, both parties have had to turn their attention toward a couple of dozen potentially vulnerable incumbents. Narrow 1998 victors like Don Sherwood, R-Pennsylvania, and Jim Maloney, D-Connecticut, are facing tough re-matches this year; but other incumbents, including, Jay Dickey, R-Arkansas, party-switcher Mike Forbes, D-New York, Jim Rogan, R-California, and freshman Rush Holt, D-New Jersey, are also top targets.

Two popular former Democratic members of Congress, Scotty Baesler of Kentucky and Jane Harman of California are trying to win back their old House seats after failing in statewide bids in 1998. Also attempting a comeback is former Republican Rep. Dick Zimmer of New Jersey. All three left the House to seek statewide office.

Democrats have more opportunities to make Election Night gains than do Republicans, but at this point the fight for control of the House is too close to call.

With relatively few seats in play in 2000, both parties, as well as "outside" groups, are likely to throw their resources into a couple of dozen of the most competitive contests. That outlook, combined with the Republicans' narrow majority, guarantees a fight for the House that will be more than spirited -- it will be brutal.