As with most rumors, there is little hard evidence backing up the theory that Microsoft will miss it's fall launch, and Microsoft itself has said that the Xbox is right on schedule if not slightly ahead of production goals. However, we've been lied to many times in the past by console makers (*coff* Nintendo), so we can't put too much faith in Microsoft's denials.

What we can trust, on the other hand, are the simple truths of the console business. And the hard facts of this industry dictate that Microsoft simply cannot afford to push back the launch of it's new multi-billion dollar foray into the console business. Here are the 7 main reasons why Microsoft simply cannot afford a significant Xbox delay.

7: Sony Has Too Much of A Head Start Already

Sony has already sold 10 Million PS2 units worldwide and the company could easily double that number by the fall. Even though they are interested in the power of the Xbox, developers must eventually look at the bottom line when they make games, and Sony already has a massive head start with its installed base of PS2 owners.

Microsoft needs to close this gap as quickly as possible if it wants to continue to lure developers to the Xbox. Pushing the Xbox launch back (even a few months) could make Sony's lead insurmountable in the minds of developers. And without their support, there is no chance that the Xbox would ever catch up.

6: Nintendo May Actually Launch the Gamecube This Fall

Although it would be a surprise to many in the industry if Nintendo actually was able to deliver the Gamecube within a year of it's actual proposed launch date, it could happen. Nintendo competes on its own playing field (The Gamecube is targeted to children rather than the typical early adopter gamer market), but its release could cause problems for the Xbox.

If the Gamecube launches this fall and the Xbox doesn't, Microsoft automatically becomes the number 2 console and Microsoft will be forced to play catch up in order to stay out of third place. For years, the videogame industry has proven that it can support two consoles, but rarely if ever three. If Microsoft starts out in third place it will have a more difficult time wooing developers, gamers, and even some retailers.

5: Early Adopters Need Hands-On Experience in Order to Evangelize a Product

No matter what happens during the Xbox launch, there will be a community of early adopters who will claim that it's the greatest console ever invented. This has happened with every console on earth (except Nuon of course), and will certainly happen during the Xbox launch. These rabid fans are often the best evangelists of a new gaming platform and can deliver millions of dollars of free advertising for a company.

They need one thing, however. They need hands-on experience. If Microsoft drags out the launch of the Xbox too long the company will begin to lose the support and the interest of this valuable community.

4: History Has Shown Timing is Everything In the Console Business

Timing is a crucial factor for those who want to be successful in the console business. Take the Dreamcast, for instance, even though it was a solid system supported by great games, it launched between two console generations. Sega's last console wasn't a big enough leap over the PlayStation generation of console hardware and it wasn't as exciting as the hardware that was coming.

If the Xbox is delayed, it will be in a similar situation. The PS2 and Gamecube will be supported by developers who have already broken the ice on those systems, and because of that, those games will look as good or better than the majority of the titles playing on the more powerful Xbox. Plus, if the Xbox is pushed into next year, it would suffer a few years from now. When Sony debuts the PS3, the Xbox will be two years behind the PS2 in software sales and market penetration, and at that point it will be hard to maintain momentum.

3: The Technology Needs To Debut While It's Still Fresh

One of the Xbox's greatest advantages is that it is the most powerful console in existence. Many of the features that the Xbox supports will make the games developed for this console look better than games on any other system. However, this advantage can quickly dissipate.

Microsoft's partner, Nvidia, has already introduced many (if not all) of the Xbox GPU's best features into its line of consumer video cards. It won't be long until PS2 and Gamecube developers are able to introduce many of the same effects into their games using software techniques. A delay could virtually eliminate any technological advantage the Xbox has over its console competition.

2: First Generation Xbox Games Will Not Be Able to Compete With Third Generation PS2 Games

A developer's time and experience with a console usually shows up in the quality of its game. We are already beginning to see incredible PS2 second generation games such as Metal Gear Solid 2 and Devil May Cry, and who knows what's coming after these titles?

Xbox developers can conceivably catch up if they only trail a single generation, but if their first generation games go head to head with Sony's third generation titles, it could be a slaughter.

1: A Delay Would Damage Microsoft's Corporate Pride

Ever since this year's Game Developers Conference, Microsoft has been adamant about the fact that it is on or ahead of its production schedule. The company has constantly trumpeted the fact that its console would ship this fall without any Nitendoesque hedging its bets.

Unless the company has insurmountable production problems, it will do everything possible to make good on that word. Otherwise it may do serious harm to it relationships with gamers, retailers and perhaps most important at this point... third party developers.

The bottom line is that Microsoft cannot afford to push the Xbox launch past this fall. The Xbox may ship with less units than expected (ala Sony) or launch later in the season than expected, but unless major unforeseen problems hit Microsoft, we'll see the Xbox in stores this fall.