From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 01:11:39 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 01:11:39 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1864zr-0004qg-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 01:11:39 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1864zb-00058L-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 01:11:23 -0700 Received: from imo-r08.mx.aol.com ([152.163.225.104]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1856EP-00060u-00 for ; Fri, 25 Oct 2002 09:18:37 -0600 Received: from Waistline2@aol.com by imo-r08.mx.aol.com (mail_out_v34.13.) id w.97.2fa927be (17079) for ; Fri, 25 Oct 2002 11:18:04 -0400 (EDT) From: Waistline2@aol.com Message-ID: <97.2fa927be.2aeabaac@aol.com> Subject: Re: [A-List] US imperialism: Iraq To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="part1_97.2fa927be.2aeabaac_boundary" X-Mailer: AOL 8.0 for Windows US sub 180 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 11:18:04 EDT Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 11:18:04 EDT --part1_97.2fa927be.2aeabaac_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit In a message dated 10/23/02 4:27:10 AM Pacific Daylight Time, markjones011@tiscali.co.uk writes: > Interesting insights as ever. But the real house-to-house fight is going on > in the UN Security Council right now where the French, Russians, Chinese > and others have not caved in when the script said they oughta. I'd say > Saddam's defences in depth begin in the outskirts of Manhattan, not > Baghdad, > and so far they are holding up pretty good. > > I have a lot to say about this and about just why the Russians have > surprised some people by their refusal to bend over an drop their pants > when > told to (not me though because I said all along they wouldn't, and it's not > just because the comprador clique of sell-out oligarchs who run the Kremlin > have suddenly found a real bone of contention with the US because of > Lukoil's Iraq oilfields. No, it's deeper than that.) > > > But I'm biding my time. I personally don't think that Bush can go it alone > except on one condition and cannot get his UN mandate to invade either, > because the French, China, Russia and after December, Germany too which > becomes a Security Council member, won't agree to do it. They won't agree > to > do it because US imperialism is now too weak, vulnerable and exposed to > make > its writ run even among its allies. This is therefore a true moment of > truth > in the history of US world hegemony. Hold your breath, folks. > > The one condition on which Bush will do it? Because he decides to rewrite > the political map not only of the Middle East but of the whole world, and > to > rip up the entire post-1945 world order. He hasn't decided to do that yet, > because the consequences will be awesome, cataclysmic, well, just call it > WW3 for short (coming our way any time now). Therefore the Bush regime > wants to give its own allies, satraps and colonies one last chance to > knuckle down voluntarily before the shooting war really begins. The Bushies > are already amazed, disillusioned and fed up that yelling doesn't work, > threatening nukes doesn't work, holding a gun to British and German heads > doesn't work, that Tony Blair is actually good ole Perfidious Albion > reborn, > tricky, duplicitous and devious and by far his worst enemy, the one who is > inside the tent pissing on the canteen, the real speedbump on the road to > war which is what the Brits have become-- a sleeping secret policeman in > cahoots with Chirac and Putin and desperate to block Bush. What is WRONG > with these people, don't they know this is a GUN at their heads and Bush is > NOT kidding? Tsk, tsk, evidently they just don't believe he'll do it, which > is why in the end he may have to. Because if Bush doesn't face off his > allies now (and they are his real enemies, not the cheap gangster in > Baghdad) then it's the big Finito to the American Empire; no war=dollar > collapse=slump=the end. > > Mark > > > I of course concur with the above and especially the second paragraph. 9/11 provided the political and ideological basis to reconfigure the American landscape and launch the most intense propaganda campaign by the bourgeoisie I have experienced. This sniper thing and the arrest of a black man - who happened to have changed his name to Muhammad a year ago, is being used to reconfigure the bourgeois approach to the national-colonial question and fight for war unity on a different basis in the country. In the past period the primary ideological basis to sustain the internal cohesion of US society has been anti-communism combined with Great nation chauvinism whose cutting edge was white chauvinism. The ideological shape has radically changed and is being consolidated. "My country right or wrong" and "support our troops" - not the administration or big government, is the watchword of the fascist offensive. The belief that war can bring prosperity to the working class is rooted in the specific of our history and the epoch of capital expansion. All the previous wars perpetrated by Yankee imperialism have taken place in the context of the fundamental expansion of the world market and the completion of the industrial infrastructure with the US as the leader economic and political entity. Capital can not longer be reformed - reformulated, to ensure expansion. Every and any political reconfiguration of the world map cannot but intensify the polarization within the working class between those who can and cannot sell their labor power for enough means to reproduce themselves - and the family. The fascist ideological offensive cannot be strategically sustained - but this cannot be quantified at this point. The peoples want improvement in their material well being and have been aroused by the Bush administration reckless squandering of the national wealth. He is promising to do something about the economy but can't and won't. The narrow basis of support of the bourgeoisie as a class in our country is being revealed. Social revolution and counterrevolution proceed together as a unity. Melvin P --part1_97.2fa927be.2aeabaac_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit In a message dated 10/23/02 4:27:10 AM Pacific Daylight Time, markjones011@tiscali.co.uk writes:

Interesting insights as ever. But the real house-to-house fight is going on
in the UN Security Council right now where  the French, Russians, Chinese
and others have not caved in when the script said they oughta. I'd say
Saddam's defences in depth begin in the outskirts of Manhattan, not Baghdad,
and so far they are holding up pretty good.

I have a lot to say about this and about just why the Russians have
surprised some people by their refusal to bend over an drop their pants when
told to (not me though because I said all along they wouldn't, and it's not
just because the comprador clique of sell-out oligarchs who run the Kremlin
have suddenly found a real bone of contention with the US because of
Lukoil's Iraq oilfields. No, it's deeper than that.)


But I'm biding my time. I personally don't think that Bush can go it alone
except on one condition and cannot get his UN mandate to invade either,
because the French, China, Russia and after December, Germany too which
becomes a Security Council member, won't agree to do it. They won't agree to
do it because US imperialism is now too weak, vulnerable and exposed to make
its writ run even among its allies. This is therefore a true moment of truth
in the history of US world hegemony. Hold your breath, folks.

The one condition on which Bush will do it? Because he decides to rewrite
the political map not only of the Middle East but of the whole world, and to
rip up the entire post-1945 world order. He hasn't decided to do that yet,
because the consequences will be awesome, cataclysmic, well, just call it
WW3 for short (coming our way any time now).   Therefore the Bush regime
wants to give its own allies, satraps and colonies one last chance to
knuckle down voluntarily before the shooting war really begins. The Bushies
are already amazed, disillusioned and fed up that yelling doesn't work,
threatening nukes doesn't work, holding a gun to British and German heads
doesn't work, that Tony Blair is actually good ole Perfidious Albion reborn,
tricky, duplicitous and devious and by far his worst enemy, the one who is
inside the tent pissing on the canteen, the real speedbump on the road to
war which is what the Brits have become-- a sleeping secret policeman in
cahoots with Chirac and Putin and desperate to block Bush. What is WRONG
with these people, don't they know this is a GUN at their heads and Bush is
NOT kidding? Tsk, tsk, evidently they just don't believe he'll do it, which
is why in the end he may have to. Because if Bush doesn't face off his
allies now (and they are his real enemies, not the cheap gangster in
Baghdad) then it's the big Finito to the American Empire; no war=dollar
collapse=slump=the end.

Mark




I of course concur with the above and especially the second paragraph.

9/11 provided the political and ideological  basis to reconfigure the American landscape and launch the most intense propaganda campaign by the bourgeoisie I have experienced. This sniper thing and the arrest of a black man - who happened to have changed his name to Muhammad a year ago, is being used to reconfigure the bourgeois approach to the national-colonial question and fight for war unity on a different basis in the country.

In the past period the primary ideological basis to sustain the internal cohesion of US society has been anti-communism combined with Great nation chauvinism whose cutting edge was white chauvinism. The ideological shape has radically changed and is being consolidated.

"My country right or wrong" and "support our troops" - not the administration or big government, is the watchword of the fascist offensive. The belief that war can bring prosperity to the working class is rooted in the specific of our history and the epoch of capital expansion. All the previous wars perpetrated by Yankee imperialism have taken place in the context of the fundamental expansion of the world market and the completion of the industrial infrastructure with the US as the leader economic and political entity.

Capital can not longer be reformed - reformulated, to ensure expansion. Every and any political reconfiguration of the world map cannot but intensify the polarization within the working class between those who can and cannot sell their labor power for enough means to reproduce themselves - and the family. The fascist ideological offensive cannot be strategically sustained - but this cannot be quantified at this point.

The peoples want improvement in their material well being and have been aroused by the Bush administration reckless squandering of the national wealth. He is promising to do something about the economy but can't and won't. The narrow basis of support of the bourgeoisie as a class in our country is being revealed.

Social revolution and counterrevolution proceed together as a unity.

Melvin P --part1_97.2fa927be.2aeabaac_boundary-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 01:12:29 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 01:12:29 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18650f-0004qr-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 01:12:29 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18650M-00058j-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 01:12:10 -0700 Received: from f186.law9.hotmail.com ([64.4.9.186] helo=hotmail.com) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 185xAQ-00028N-00 for ; Sun, 27 Oct 2002 16:50:02 -0700 Received: from mail pickup service by hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC; Sun, 27 Oct 2002 15:49:31 -0800 Received: from 160.36.66.165 by lw9fd.law9.hotmail.msn.com with HTTP; Sun, 27 Oct 2002 23:49:31 GMT X-Originating-IP: [160.36.66.165] From: "John Gulick" To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Bcc: Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed Message-ID: X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Oct 2002 23:49:31.0817 (UTC) FILETIME=[7EE46190:01C27E13] Subject: [A-List] Has China Become an Ally? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 15:49:31 -0800 Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 15:49:31 -0800 I posted this to WSN and I thought it might be of interest to the A-list crowd: Regarding the Liberthal article posted by Boris Stremlin, what do WSN list members think of the following set of (very crudely formulated and very hastily scripted) propositions ? 1) More and more, the U.S. foreign policy establishment recognizes that the EU (most notably the continental EU countries) poses the greatest threat to the sustenance of its global pre-eminence. The Euro currency bloc presents the biggest challenge to U.S. seignorage privileges. France and Germany are the leading opponents of the U.S. Defense Department's muscular interpretation of the full spectrum dominance doctrine (epitomized by its stance on regime change in Iraq). The EU states are playing hardball on various trade and investment disputes (US steel tarrifs, agricultural subsidies, tax breaks for overseas TNC affiliates, etc.). The EU states still embrace models of social market capitalism and corporate governance somewhat at odds with the U.S. neo-liberal and shareholder value models. The left wing of the political class in the EU states (unlike the Democrats in the U.S.) is sympathetic to the anti-Washington Consensus claims advanced by non-core NGO's, social movements, and electoral parties (in fora such as Porto Alegre). 2) The softening, post-911 position of the U.S. toward the PRC is driven by the growing awareness of 1). To oversimplify, the hegemonic power has decided to extend its cooperative ties w/one of its putative "strategic competitors" (the PRC) in order to outflank the EU states which are no longer behaving like pliant junior partners (moreso than since deGaulle ?). All in all, this makes a lot of sense, for both the CCP elites and the U.S. The fate of the CCP elites depends in large part upon social stability in China, which in turn depends in large part on continued high rates of economic growth, which in turn depends (at least for now) in large part on 1) guaranteed access to U.S. markets, 2) continued high rates of FDI (much of it U.S. FDI), 3) predictable and cheap flows of Persian Gulf oil, for which only the U.S. Navy can supply "security." The U.S. knows just how dependent the CCP elites are on U.S markets, U.S. FDI, and the global reach of the U.S. military, and hence feel comfortable engaging China as a hedge against souring relations with the EU states. Also, the U.S. realizes that because of the historic antagonism b/w China and Japan, it need not fear a self-contained currency, trade, and investment bloc intertwining China and Japan. It can continue to deal with each of them bilaterally, rather than having to deal with an undiplomatic united front (contra the case of the EU minus the UK). At the same time, just to assure the complicity of the CCP elites, the US has to apply a certain amount of pressure: it must maintain its ambiguous stance on Taiwan, hew to its position on national missile defense, present itself as the "solution" to the "problem" of North Korean nuclear capability, and so on. 3) As these reshuffled geopolitical and geoeconomic contours in the world system take shape, Russia is the wild card. The eastward expansion of NATO was about driving a wedge between the EU and Russia, reinforcing both the EU's reliance on U.S. military protection, and the post-Soviet ruling class' reliance on the Wall Street/Treasury complex for concessionary loans, a place to stash ill-begotten money from the privatization plunder, and so on. But just as the US tried to use NATO expansion as a means for interrupting a horizontal alliance between the EU and Russia, Putin today is attempting to take advantage of the widening U.S.-EU rift as a lever to secure favors from both. I suspect that the likely invasion of Iraq will push Russia more decisively into the EU camp (a preview of this, of course, is French-Russian collaboration over the wording of the UN resolution). 4) Here is a novel contribution I have to make: the deepening of relations b/w the U.S. and the PRC will be one of the factors further pushing Russia into the EU camp. The novelty of my argument is this: the deepening of U.S.-PRC ties is predicated on the commitment of CCP elites to the deepening of neo-liberal economic restructuring. While the latter may continue to yield the GDP growth necessary for the CCP's political legitimacy, it will also exacerbate the uprooting of the peasantry, and the joblessness of the state-owned enterprise labor force. These effects may not be severe enough to undermine social stability in the country as a whole, but they will be experienced most acutely in Northeast China, because of the predominance of "inefficient" (by capitalist market standards) grain growers and heavy industry in this region. Far East Russia borders Northeast China and will absorb heavy migration streams of displaced peasants and SOE workers, piquing local resentment about the "Chinese threat," resentment that will be transmitted westward to Moscow. To speculate wildly, I suspect that Bush naming North Korea as a member of the "axis of evil" and the recent leak about developments in the North Korean nuclear program has something to do with justifying enhanced U.S. military presence in the region, such that coming cross-border tensions between China and Russia can be steered in the direction of U.S.-Chinese and hence U.S. interests. 5) The prospect of a nation-wide insurgence by Chinese peasants and workers exceeds the prospect of an EU-Russian alliance as a threat to U.S. hegemony (just as a successful Taiping Rebellion might have hastened the end of British hegemony 150 years ago). It is impossible to know if this will or will not happen, but what is relatively certain is that the current model of Chinese development (to which the CCP elites and increasingly U.S. ruling groups are wedded) is riven with fundamental environmental contradictions that will eventually stem increases in the mean standard of living (measured both quantitatively and qualitatively), which may or may not translate into mass social and political upheaval. John Gulick _________________________________________________________________ Internet access plans that fit your lifestyle -- join MSN. http://resourcecenter.msn.com/access/plans/default.asp From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 03:01:39 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:01:39 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1866iJ-0005Iy-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:01:39 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1866i0-0005n3-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:01:20 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1866h6-0005ms-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:00:24 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SA0Tp14977 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:00:29 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SA0RA14914 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:00:27 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:02:10 +0200 Message-ID: <022201c27e68$a38fbd00$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: References: <4.3.2.7.1.20021025143327.00b9cb70@hsoak01a.ebay.sun.com> <4.3.2.7.1.20021025150228.00b9f700@hsoak01a.ebay.sun.com> Subject: Re: [A-List] "The Late '90s Never Happened" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 10:02:10.0561 (UTC) FILETIME=[14CF9710:01C27E69] Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 11:59:00 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 11:59:00 +0200 Joanna writes in response to Max: No, what I'm trying to get accross is that it's the same story. The first part of the story had to do with suckering the suckers or outright theft/fraud. In the second part, the insiders took off and everyone else got left holding the bag. ----- I'm glad someone was around to say this, although a few other things need to be said also. Foremost, concerning the occupational risk that appears to hoodwink economists almost every time, in which they reify theoretical relationships which are, at best, analogues and which themselves are of varying applicability over time and space. The notion that a low unemployment rate per se is somehow indicative of increased prosperity across the board might have applied during the 1960s, but in an age of multi-job households in which low wage-earners have to hold down maybe three different jobs in order to secure a comparable level of income to that enjoyed prior to the 1973 slump it is, at the very least, misleading to suggest that a 3.9 per cent *official* rate of unemployment is, in and of itself, *a good thing*. The casual acceptance of this ahistorical reification by supposedly progressive economists is not only disturbing, but has the practical effect of legitimating what has been going on over the last decade especially -- something Marxists would call intensified surplus value extraction, but something that Clintonites like Brad DeLong call "a productivity miracle" -- which, by the way, is promised for Europe, believe it or not... See http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2002w30/msg00046.htm Especially good is the infomercial "Amazing Discoveries"-like exclamation that "The second half of the 1990s saw an astonishingly large productivity boom in America. Moreover, the boom did not end when the recession began: the unemployment rate has risen by 2 percentage points over the past six quarters, yet production has risen by 2.4 per cent." That's amazing! Frederick Winslow Taylor would be proud. Actually 10 years ago economists were commenting on similar phenomena as evidence of a "new era" of jobless growth. Meanwhile what is it that the US is "producing" at a time of a record trade deficit? See http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2002w43/msg00033.htm It seems to be the case that, for Brad DeLong and other "progressives", it's a wonderful thing that Schröder, Berlusconi, Raffarin, Persson and Aznar are going to implement "labour market reform" along lines pioneered by Thatcher and followed by Blair, because it will improve productivity, and thereby we will all be prosperous. What absolute drivel. There is copious research published strongly suggesting that all that investment in IT had, at best, a marginal effect in real productivity -- something covered amply in the "New economy bull" series begun on PEN-L and transferred to the A-list: See, for instance http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2001/msg04556.htm http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2001/msg04546.htm http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2001/msg04702.htm http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2001/msg03412.htm http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2001/msg03771.htm http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2001/msg05101.htm ...ad nauseam. Will Hutton argues that France and Germany, among other EU members states, already have higher per man-hour output than the US. See http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2001/msg03412.htm Meanwhile, now that the Clinton welfare "reforms" are in place we shall see just how effective are the "incentives" in place driving workers to work ever harder and thereby secure even greater "prosperity" in the "miracle" that is the US economy. I'm sorry if this sounds overly curmudgeon-like, but not having hung around PEN-L and like forums of late I've gotten used to the apologism-free atmosphere of forums like this. Michael Keaney From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 03:02:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:02:36 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1866jE-0005J9-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:02:36 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1866ix-0005nS-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:02:19 -0700 Received: from [218.4.51.134] (helo=localhost) by lists.econ.utah.edu with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18656a-0005CL-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 01:18:37 -0700 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2288.300 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2288.300 Message-ID: X-Server: (host.lusobrasileira.net [192.168.0.221]) by localhost@diretorialusobrasileira.pt Received: Sept 27, 2008 From: =?iso-8859-1?Q?Actualidad_Brasile=F1a:?= To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_000D_01C27DFA.48DAF3C0" Subject: [A-List] TFP interpela a Lula y Serra Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 20:49:03 -0200 Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 20:49:03 -0200 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C27DFA.48DAF3C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable InEnglish,Please EmPortugu=EAs,PorFavor Estimados amigos: Les enviamos una noticia sobre las elecciones = presidenciales brasile=F1as, publicada en el Diario Las Am=E9ricas, de = Miami (Oct. 26, 2002), que nos parece de inter=E9s para diversos = pa=EDses iberoamericanos. Aguardamos vuestros valiosos comentarios. = Cordialmente, Ricardo Vieira de Melo Peixoto - Luso-Brasileira de = Not=EDcias (LBN) - Lisboa=20 Brasil: TFP interpela a candidatos presidenciales La entidad constata que la "inmensa masa centrista y conservadora" se ve = reducida a escoger entre dos "opciones de izquierda" y pide definiciones = en lo que respecta a la familia cristiana y a la propiedad privada S=C3O PAULO (LBN) - La organizaci=F3n no-gubernamental TFP -Tradici=F3n, = Familia, Propiedad- entreg=F3 hoy una carta a los candidatos = presidenciales Jos=E9 Serra (PSDB) y Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva (PT) = donde manifiesta que "la inmensa masa centrista y conservadora" de los = brasile=F1os, "teniendo que comparecer a las urnas debido a la = obligatoriedad del voto", se ve reducida a escoger entre dos "opciones = meramente de izquierda". Por ello, TFP expresa "aprensi=F3n y temor" = ante la posibilidad de que el futuro presidente de Brasil pueda = impulsar, especialmente en lo que respecta a la familia cristiana y a la = propiedad privada, pol=EDticas y leyes que atenten gravemente contra la = Ley de Dios".=20 TFP a=F1ade que "uno de los requisitos fundamentales para la = autenticidad de un r=E9gimen democr=E1tico es la definici=F3n = program=E1tica de los candidatos"; pero que, "lamentablemente, en varios = puntos de fundamental importancia, el actual proceso electoral no se ha = caracterizado por la claridad de las posiciones, y s=ED por la falta de = definici=F3n ideol=F3gica y hasta por la confusi=F3n". Delante de ello, = la entidad -constituida por laicos cat=F3licos, que act=FAan en el campo = temporal "bajo la exclusiva responsabilidad de sus miembros"- hace a los = dos candidatos presidenciales 10 preguntas cuyas respuestas pueden = contribuir a aclarar "las dudas y recelos" de la "gran corriente = conservadora" de los brasile=F1os, cuyos votos ser=E1n decisivos el = pr=F3ximo d=EDa 27 de octubre.=20 Entre otras preguntas, TFP solicita una n=EDtida posici=F3n de los = candidatos Serra y Lula da Silva sobre si apoyar=E1n o no la = aprobaci=F3n de leyes que legitimen el llamado "casamiento homosexual" y = lleven a la legalizaci=F3n del aborto, condenados por la doctrina de la = Iglesia; si reprimir=E1n o no "las invasiones y dem=E1s actividades de = =EDndole criminal promovidas por el denominado Movimiento de los = Sin-Tierra (MST)"; si pretenden llevar adelante el agro-igualitarismo = demag=F3gico y socialista, promoviendo la Reforma Agraria; si = respetar=E1n o no el derecho de los brasile=F1os de adquirir, poseer y = portar armas debidamente registradas, para el ejercicio de su leg=EDtima = defensa; si incentivar=E1n o no la aplicaci=F3n de la Reforma Urbana, de = perfil socialista y confiscatorio; si, en el caso de ser electos, se = comprometen o no a "denunciar las violaciones a la libertad y las = persecuciones de =EDndole pol=EDtica y religiosa llevadas a cabo por el = r=E9gimen comunista" del dictador Fidel Castro; etc. La carta constata, finalmente, el "silencio enigm=E1tico" de gran parte = de los obispos y sacerdotes brasile=F1os respecto "de estos asuntos de = importancia capital para el futuro cristiano de nuestra Naci=F3n". Hasta el cierre de esta edici=F3n, los candidatos presidenciales Lula y = Serra a=FAn no hab=EDan respondido la solicitud de nuestra agencia para = que manifiesten sus opiniones. LBN / Luso-Brasileira de Not=EDcias TFP:TextoCompleto Participe en nuestra encuesta. Simplemente env=EDe su voto y, en caso = que as=ED lo desee, a=F1ada su valiosa opini=F3n: TFP:Concuerdo TFP:Discrepo TFP:Depende Subscribir SubscribirAmigos (con el previo consentimiento de =E9stos). Retirar a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Gracias por vuestra atenci=F3n y paciencia. ------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C27DFA.48DAF3C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

           &nbs= p;     =20 InEnglish,Please   EmPortugu=EAs,PorFavor

Estimados amigos: Les enviamos una noticia sobre las = elecciones=20 presidenciales brasile=F1as, publicada en el Diario Las Am=E9ricas, de = Miami (Oct.=20 26, 2002), que nos parece de inter=E9s para diversos pa=EDses = iberoamericanos.=20 Aguardamos vuestros valiosos comentarios. Cordialmente, Ricardo Vieira = de Melo=20 Peixoto - Luso-Brasileira de Not=EDcias (LBN) - Lisboa =

Brasil: TFP interpela a candidatos=20 presidenciales

La entidad constata que la "inmensa masa centrista y=20 conservadora" se ve reducida a escoger entre dos "opciones de izquierda" = y pide=20 definiciones en lo que respecta a la familia cristiana y a la propiedad=20 privada

S=C3O PAULO (LBN) - La organizaci=F3n no-gubernamental TFP = -Tradici=F3n,=20 Familia, Propiedad- entreg=F3 hoy una carta a los candidatos = presidenciales Jos=E9=20 Serra (PSDB) y Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva (PT) donde manifiesta que "la = inmensa=20 masa centrista y conservadora" de los brasile=F1os, "teniendo que = comparecer a las=20 urnas debido a la obligatoriedad del voto", se ve reducida a escoger = entre dos=20 "opciones meramente de izquierda". Por ello, TFP expresa "aprensi=F3n y = temor"=20 ante la posibilidad de que el futuro presidente de Brasil pueda = impulsar,=20 especialmente en lo que respecta a la familia cristiana y a la propiedad = privada, pol=EDticas y leyes que atenten gravemente contra la Ley de = Dios".

TFP a=F1ade que "uno de los requisitos fundamentales para la = autenticidad de un=20 r=E9gimen democr=E1tico es la definici=F3n program=E1tica de los = candidatos"; pero que,=20 "lamentablemente, en varios puntos de fundamental importancia, el actual = proceso=20 electoral no se ha caracterizado por la claridad de las posiciones, y = s=ED por la=20 falta de definici=F3n ideol=F3gica y hasta por la confusi=F3n". Delante = de ello, la=20 entidad -constituida por laicos cat=F3licos, que act=FAan en el campo = temporal "bajo=20 la exclusiva responsabilidad de sus miembros"- hace a los dos candidatos = presidenciales 10 preguntas cuyas respuestas pueden contribuir a aclarar = "las=20 dudas y recelos" de la "gran corriente conservadora" de los = brasile=F1os, cuyos=20 votos ser=E1n decisivos el pr=F3ximo d=EDa 27 de octubre.

Entre otras preguntas, TFP solicita una n=EDtida posici=F3n de los = candidatos=20 Serra y Lula da Silva sobre si apoyar=E1n o no la aprobaci=F3n de leyes = que=20 legitimen el llamado "casamiento homosexual" y lleven a la = legalizaci=F3n del=20 aborto, condenados por la doctrina de la Iglesia; si reprimir=E1n o no = "las=20 invasiones y dem=E1s actividades de =EDndole criminal promovidas por el = denominado=20 Movimiento de los Sin-Tierra (MST)"; si pretenden llevar adelante el=20 agro-igualitarismo demag=F3gico y socialista, promoviendo la Reforma = Agraria; si=20 respetar=E1n o no el derecho de los brasile=F1os de adquirir, poseer y = portar armas=20 debidamente registradas, para el ejercicio de su leg=EDtima defensa; si=20 incentivar=E1n o no la aplicaci=F3n de la Reforma Urbana, de perfil = socialista y=20 confiscatorio; si, en el caso de ser electos, se comprometen o no a = "denunciar=20 las violaciones a la libertad y las persecuciones de =EDndole pol=EDtica = y religiosa=20 llevadas a cabo por el r=E9gimen comunista" del dictador Fidel Castro; = etc.

La carta constata, finalmente, el "silencio enigm=E1tico" de gran = parte de los=20 obispos y sacerdotes brasile=F1os respecto "de estos asuntos de = importancia=20 capital para el futuro cristiano de nuestra Naci=F3n".

Hasta el cierre de esta edici=F3n, los candidatos presidenciales Lula = y Serra=20 a=FAn no hab=EDan respondido la solicitud de nuestra agencia para que = manifiesten=20 sus opiniones.

LBN / Luso-Brasileira de Not=EDcias

TF= P:TextoCompleto

Participe en nuestra encuesta. Simplemente env=EDe su voto y, en caso = que as=ED=20 lo desee, a=F1ada su valiosa opini=F3n:

TFP:Concuer= do    =20  TFP:Discrepo=      =20 TFP:Depende

Subscribir=

Subscrib= irAmigos  (con=20 el previo consentimiento de =E9stos).

Retirar=20 a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu

Gracias por vuestra atenci=F3n y paciencia.

------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C27DFA.48DAF3C0-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 03:05:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:05:33 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1866m5-0005JQ-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:05:33 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1866lr-0005o8-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:05:19 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1866lO-0005nz-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:04:51 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SA4t820335 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:04:55 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SA4rA20203 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:04:53 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:06:36 +0200 Message-ID: <023201c27e69$4246d780$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 10:06:36.0811 (UTC) FILETIME=[B3821DB0:01C27E69] Subject: [A-List] UK state: New Labour reshuffle Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:03:26 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:03:26 +0200 Labour's new firefighter Tony Blair has been caught with his eye off the ball several times, but now he's found a new right-hand man. Westminster Editor James Cusick reports The Sunday Herald, 27 October 2002 It was a fairly routine Thursday, April 18. There was still residual excitement around from Gordon Brown's budget. Inside Downing Street, Tony Blair and Alastair Campbell agreed all Labour MPs should push the message that the new tax rises were the only way forward for the country. That was the home agenda. But at the back of the Prime Minister's mind would have been another agenda: the quietly released details from the Pentagon that the US was to ''assist'' in building a £90 million new airbase in Oman, with runways long enough to handle strategic bombers and transport aircraft. The Iraq agenda was moving. What Blair may have missed was the outcome of a meeting in London of representatives from every fire brigade in the UK. The gathering unanimously ratified a call for firefighters and emergency fire control staff to be paid £30,000 a year. The wage demand for a 40% rise should have at least caused a few ripples in Downing Street. But how could the Fire Brigades Union (FBU) compete against movements in the Pentagon? On May 28, the National Joint Council for Local Authority Fire Brigades effectively the firefighters' employers, acknowledged the FBU's formal claim for the huge pay demand. The national employers' secretary, Phil White, said he was looking forward to ''sensible and sound negotiations'' and that his organisation was committed to a national pay formula for the future. Andy Gilchrist, FBU general secretary was 'pleased' employers took such a view. Negotiations would take place on June 6. Downing Street might have missed all that. On the same day, besieged transport secretary Stephen Byers finally resigned. Tony Blair was busy with an unexpected Cabinet reshuffle. By June 11, when 12,000 firefighters marched through London in support of their pay claim, and made it clear they would ballot for strike action, there were again matters further afield to divert the PM's attention. Detailed reports in US newspapers at the same time began speculating that President George W Bush would shortly be announcing a new ''first strike'' policy in the continuing war against al-Qaeda. The target: Saddam Hussein's Iraq. On June 17, Gilchrist said: ''We have made it clear time and time again that we don't want confrontation over this issue.'' The issue of European Union immigration and asylum was confronting Downing Street ahead of a summit in Seville a few days later. Discussions on what Blair would tell newly re-elected French President Jacques Chirac, after his landslide victory, were also uppermost in the PM's agenda. Blair would be flying to Paris for talks with Chirac in a day. The evidence points in one direction: the last six months for Tony Blair have seen intense political battles on numerous fronts. Was he juggling too many? Unlike with other Prime Ministers, where Cabinet ministers operated with authority and their decisions were respected, Blair's centralised administration and his Downing Street 'White House-style' team process everything themselves. All Cabinet Office ministers report to Blair directly. Lord Macdonald, minister for the Cabinet Office, reports direct to Blair. The pressure at the very centre of Britain's political system is now as intense as it has ever been. Cabinet Office ministers at one time reported direct to deputy prime minister John Prescott. But now no one reports directly to him, except his own small team of five junior ministers. At the beginning of July, the simmering fire brigades dispute was being handled by the deputy PM, whose job it was to fix it. An FBU source close to Gilchrist said: ''Before a key meeting scheduled for July 9, we were given details of a pay offer that would be put on the table by the national employers -- 16%. But Prescott's office intervened and no offer materialised.'' It is understood that Prescott had told the employers they should not be discussing pay. A few months earlier Prescott's office had been telling anyone who was interested that the fire brigade pay dispute was nothing to do with central government. The FBU source said: ''We've had to deal with these contradictions all over the place. When our pay talks with the employers are supposedly failing, Prescott's office come back and say it can't be solved and the matter must now go to an independent review.' When the FBU announced it would not co-operate with Professor Sir George Bain's review, the fire-alarm bells in Downing Street should have been going off, but there were fires to put out elsewhere. With the unilateral/multilateral debate on UN involvement on any conflict with Iraq heating up, Blair was preparing to head into the hostile territory of the TUC's annual conference in Blackpool. He would also have been preparing for the crucial summit in Camp David with George Bush, ahead of Bush's own crucial address in New York to the UN. When Labour's own conference began in Blackpool, with Blair facing potential trouble over Labour's policy on PFI and on Iraq, what barely made headlines was that the ballot papers on the FBU's strike action began coming back. A potential 'winter of discontent' crisis was emerging, but emerging quietly. The first strike dates were announced on October 8, the same day Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble gave Downing Street an ultimatum that if Sinn Fein were not kicked out of the Northern Ireland assembly within six days -- following the revelations of a republican spy ring operating inside Stormont -- the UUP would quit the assembly. In the Cabinet reshuffle that followed the resignation of Estelle Morris from the department of education and skills, John Reid has the new job of chairman of the Labour Party. As Blair's homefront super-chairman, he will have to ensure the debacle over the FBU pay claim -- and other trouble-intensive issues-in- waiting -- do not again sneak upon the government. The Blair presidency and his devaluation of the cabinet since his election in 1997, now means the PM is vulnerable to simmering ''events'' that require attention at their beginning, not once they have caught fire. A senior party source said: ''John [Prescott] might have eased this chaos some time ago if the significance of the problem had been understood. But a dispute with us for months is being treated like it has just arrived, which is far from the truth and we understand that.'' Reid, the Cabinet's safest pair of hands, multi-skilled and unquestioning in delivering the New Labour message across all its departments, will be expected to carry out the firefighting duties once expected of Prescott. Or as another party source put it: 'What the PM is hoping John Reid will assist him on is to use his ability not to deal with problems, but to prevent such problems emerging in the first place.'' Reid's closeness to Blair, his loyalty and his skills as an articulate and informed messenger -- especially on television -- stand in stark contrast to Prescott. If the raison d'?tre of John Prescott's presence within Blair's Cabinet was his evolutionary links between Old and New Labour, then Reid's elevation to party chairman ends Prescott's monopoly immediately. Reid is New Labour's new deputy PM in-waiting. Labour's spin machine, anxious to emphasise the positive aspects of the reshuffle following Morris's departure, focused on Reid's Old Labour credentials, such as his links with Neil Kinnock, all essentially his relationship with 'the party'. Reid himself, as ever understanding the message with perfect clarity, went into his favourite territory, BBC Radio, and said: 'The Labour Party and the people who work for the Labour Party, as well as its supporters and those with whom we have dialogue, are the engine of this government.' Was this the beginning of Reid's charm offensive on the Labour Party? And if so, buttering them up in preparation for what? If war with Iraq is coming, against the wishes of many in Labour's ranks , Reid will have the unenviable task of trying to maintain a semblance of order amid those calling for an internal revolution. Iraq and other international issues over the horizon will continue to take Blair's attention away from home. He has become an international politician and as such cannot now simply choose to stay home when he wants. What the post-Morris reshuffle has allowed him to do is to reshape his team, to reflect on what may be required in the run up to a third term. And although the reality last week was an emergency reshuffle, Blair has managed to successfully deliver the message that his Cabinet is now stronger than it was. And a key figure in that perceptional strength is John Reid. Charles Clarke, the tough-talking former chairman, may find his direct manner -- which upset many a trade union boss and did no favours for the health of the Labour-union axis -- ideally suited to his new role as education secretary. Paul Murphy, already experienced in the politics of Northern Ireland, will be a useful neutral politician at another difficult junction in the turbulent peace process. And although Peter Hain has left his post as Europe minister to become secretary of state for Wales, he will still retain his role in liaising with the European Convention which looks at the future shape of the EU. Hain was, is still, regarded as a key ally to Blair when planning for a referendum on the euro begins in earnest. That Hain has been plucked out of the Foreign Office, points to the heat being off the euro debate -- for the time being. Does that mean another issue more important is now to be addressed? By accident or with an intuitive sense of political timing, Blair's unexpected reshuffle -- alongside the realisation that a union pay dispute could have been avoided if handled better and earlier -- has resulted in a stronger- looking, tailor-made line-up. If the task ahead is indeed war with Iraq, this new Cabinet, stronger or not, will be tested to breaking point. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 03:16:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:16:36 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1866wm-0005MA-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:16:36 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1866wa-0005sD-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:16:24 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1866wA-0005s4-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:15:58 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SAG3G00690 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:16:03 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SAG2A00608 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:16:02 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:17:45 +0200 Message-ID: <024a01c27e6a$d0b437a0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 10:17:45.0311 (UTC) FILETIME=[41F71EF0:01C27E6B] Subject: [A-List] Italy: another Berlusconi scandal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:14:35 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:14:35 +0200 Phantom votes to save PM's lawyer Hilary Clark reports from Rome as Berlusconi's 'piano players' get the bird in multiple-voting and corruption scandal The Sunday Herald, 27 October 2002 Legislation allegedly designed solely to keep Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's former lawyer out of jail met an unexpected hitch after senators of his ruling party were filmed voting on behalf of absent friends as the bill went through the upper house. Several senior members of the multi-billionaire's Forza Italia and the far-right Alleanza Nazionale, dubbed the 'piano players', pressed the electronic voting buttons not only of their own seats but of those of absent colleagues next to their own. The official video footage catching them in the act was passed to opposition politicians, who claim that between 26 and 50 phantom votes were cast in Thursday night's division, which the government parties won. It is also thought the session may have been inquorate. Politicians to the left of the right-wing coalition say the Italian constitution 'tacitly' requires MPs to be physically present to vote. 'This time they have gone over the top,' said opposition senator Willer Bordon, who says the opposition could now appeal to the Constitutional Court. The leader of the house, Marcello Pera -- a member of Forza Italia -- denied any wrongdoing in a brief note to the press. The centre-left opposition boycotted the vote in protest against the new law, which would enable the defendant in a court case to have the trial moved to another court if he had a reasonable belief that the judge was politically biased against him. Opponents say the so-called Cerami Bill has been tailor-made to protect former def ence minister Cesare Previti -- a Forza Italia MP and former lawyer to Silvio Berlusconi's Fininvest holding company -- from a long prison sentence for corruption. Berlusconi wants Previti's trial moved out of Milan, home of the anti-corruption campaigns of the early 1990s, because, he claims, prosecuting magistrate Ilda Boccassini is politically motivated. Last week Boccassini, a veteran anti-mafia investig-ator and anti-corruption campaigner, called for a 13-year prison sentence for Previti, the maximum sentence for such charges, a demand she said was based on evidence 'that weighs a ton'. Previti and two other law yers, Attilio Pacifico and Giovanni Acampora, are accused of receiving around Û33 million from the former owners of the oil company SIR to bribe three Court of Cassation judges -- Renato Squillante, one of the most senior judges in Rome, Filippo Verde and Vittorio Metta -- to allow the takeover of SIR by the public financial holding company IMI. Under the judges' ruling, IMI was forced to pay the Rovelli family, the heirs of SIR founder Nino Rovelli, a settlement of Û490m, a bill that eventually went to the Italian taxpayer. Previti has admitted to owning a sum of more than Û10m found in a Swiss bank account, but he maintains it was not a bribe. It represents, he claims, fees he had received from his Rovelli clients as a lawyer in the early 1970s, which he had deposited in the Swiss bank to avoid paying Italian taxes on it. Silvio Berlusconi has been footing Previti's legal bills, the news-paper La Repubblica has reported. Last January the IMI-SIR case was bundled together with another judge-bribing trial involving Fininvest. In the latter case Previti is accused of having bribed judges in order that Fininvest could win control of Italy's biggest publishing house, Mon dadori, in 1991. Berlusconi was able to avoid appearing at this trial because the period within which the case should have been filed by state prosecutors had expired. Indeed, according to Boccassini, Previti and his associates ran a bribery operation upon the High Court that amounted to 'a military-style organisation', a charge which has led another group of MPs close to Berlusconi to call to have her disciplined and taken off the case for disrespect. If the Cerami law, otherwise known as the 'Save Previti law', should be passed, the case would probably be moved to another court where the judge would be more sympathetic to Previti, or it could be thrown out of court altogether. Public opposition to the Cerami law has been vociferous and emotional. It was the subject of a 400,000-strong demonstration in Rome last month, led by the film-maker Nanni Moretti. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 03:24:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:24:37 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18674X-0005QG-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:24:37 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18674F-0005vV-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:24:19 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18673h-0005vM-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:23:45 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SANo308189 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:23:50 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SANmA08127 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:23:48 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:25:31 +0200 Message-ID: <025201c27e6b$e694b120$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 10:25:31.0514 (UTC) FILETIME=[57D80DA0:01C27E6C] Subject: [A-List] UK state: Scotland and New Labour turf wars Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:22:21 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:22:21 +0200 Interesting little snippet concerning "Dr" Reid and the late Donald Dewar, a man not usually noted for pugilism... There is also the faint implication that of Reid's involvement in the downfall of Henry McLeish, something I strongly suspect and which would point to the symbiotic links between the Blairite circle and public relations firm Beattie Media. Also, McWhirter forgets to mention what is really the most significant outcome of this, which is the weakening of Gordon Brown, whose bailiwick was always Scotland, until Blair et al started to notice how this meant Brown's position was enhanced at their expense. Powerplay: Will The Big Guns Always Be Men? Iain Macwhirter on the neutralising effect of a political culture soaked in testosterone The Sunday Herald, 27 October 2002 THE bruisers are back: the big beasts, the big guns. Funny how we always fall back on violent and vaguely phallic imagery when we talk about senior politicians. The big guns are of course John Reid, Charles Clarke and Paul Murphy, who have won promotion in Cabinet over the broken body of education secretary Estelle Morris. The last of the babes, they're calling her. Mind you, nothing became her better than her leaving. She cited poor relations with the media as one of the reasons she resigned, but Morris's handling of her departure was a real coup. Suddenly she was a heroine. The minister whose demeanour had been compared to that of a primary-school teacher facing a class she couldn't control suddenly emerged as a champion of quiet competence and decency in a cynical profession. In the Commons, she was extravagantly lauded for her honesty, integrity, humanity. MP after MP rose to express his or her shock, respect and even love for her. The tributes were so effusive that Speaker Martin had to order a halt before the House dissolved in tears. Such praise for one who has fallen is not so much a sincere expression of concern as a celebration of casualty. A politician often feels a twinge of relief at seeing a colleague fall; it reminds him that he is still standing. The press heaped praise on Morris to mitigate its sense of guilt about the way some papers had pried into her private life. Unmarried at 50, wasn't very good at school, etc. We British don't like seeing people kicked when they're down, so the press responds by elevating the politician they have helped to destroy. It was pretty faint praise anyway. What the press were really saying was that women are jolly nice people, but just aren't up to it at this level. And the trouble is that in Morris's case they, and she, were right. She never seemed comfortable in her post. During the fracas over A-level results and the performance of English primary schools, she looked like a rabbit caught in headlights. Cabinet ministers can't afford to look like that. Nor can they afford to forget, as Morris did, that they'd promised to resign if they didn't meet their targets. It's hard, but no-one said it wouldn't be. The fact is that politics is a bit of a willy contest. It is essentially a game played by and for insensitive and arrogant men who would no more admit to self-doubt than appear on Blind Date. Successful politicians tend to be those who fight their corners in Cabinet and in the media with the ardour of old bull elephant seals fighting off hungry rogue males. Our politics reeks of testosterone. In Westminster you practically have to cover your mouth, so rank is the stench of it. It's the same in Scotland, whatever the expectations of the 'new politics'. (When did we last hear about that?) Former Labour minister Wendy Alexander could hardly be less like Estelle Mor ris in the sensitivity stakes, and could fight her corner like a wildcat, but even she became a victim of the culture. After fighting her way into Cabinet, then girding her loins to take on McConnell for the top job, she suffered what could only be described as an emotional spasm. Introspection and resignation followed within months. The minister for everything ended up with nothing. Feminists are intensely frustrated by the Morris affair, as they were with Wendy Alexander. Women feel the personal qualities of the former education secretary -- a 'real person', a 'human being' -- ought to be applauded. What man would ever admit they weren't up to the job? they say. Well, Henry McLeish, actually, but he isn't quite the role model women politicians have in mind. But feminists are inwardly seething that Morris, by her own admission, confirmed the male prejudice that women in politics lack staying power. The Guardian's incensed Polly Toynbee was left trying to argue that Morris was right to want to go, and should be commended for criticising her own performance, but that she should never have admitted it openly. But isn't that what all the men do? Isn't that big beast behaviour? In reality, men in public life do experience self doubt. In my experience men in public life are often deeply insecure and tortured by all manner of doubts and anxieties. But they suffer in silence. Indeed, in some ways, male politicians are more insecure than women, and more terrified of failure, which is why they adopt such bizarre behaviour when they get into difficulties. Estelle Morris wasn't afraid to say she wasn't up to the job, which is actually a testimony to inner strength. She knows there is life outside Whitehall and that she could be doing other things than flog this particular ministerial dead horse. For men, it's different. Male politicians somehow find the prospect of failure so terrifying they will go to any lengths to avoid facing up to it. Look at John Prescott, the deputy Prime Minister. He can hardly deliver a coherent sentence; is a presentational nightmare, with his two Jaguars and penchant for using his fists; and has been found out many times, not least over his ill-judged promise to cut car use over the first five years of Labour government. But you can't see Pressa taking the long walk. He is, after all, a big beast and big beasts don't do that kind of thing. Men like Prescott fall back on their system of defensive political alliances -- or cronyism if you must. If you have 'friends' in politics you generally survive. People look out for you. Charles Clarke, the new Education Secretary, got into terrible trouble recently by loudly attacking colleagues in Pizza Express, antagonising the unions and attacking cynicism in the media (pots and kettles came to mind). But he had friends. Take that other big gun, Dr John Reid, former Northern Ireland Secretary, now party chairman. He was censured by the Commons Standards Commissioner, Elizabeth Filkin, for misusing his parliamentary allowances and for behaving with other MPs in a bullying manner. If Reid had been First Minister in Scotland there is no way he could have survived such a report. But he did. He also survived a near punch-up with the late Donald Dewar over Reid's son Kevin's involvement in the Lobbygate affair in which Kevin boasted he could provide access to Jack McConnell, a former employee of Kevin's employer, Beattie Media. Reid has friends. He is a big beast. Indeed, Reid is such a big beast, he seems to be taking over from both the Scottish Secretary, Helen Liddell, and the First Minister, Jack McConnell. We're told that top of his agenda will be sorting out Scottish Labour and masterminding next year's Scottish elections. Jack had better watch. But then, they're both anchored in Lanarkshire politics, and so can be relied upon to look out for each other. Can women ever achieve big beast status? Why can't they have friends too? Or do they simply lack the necessary equipment? Can our political culture change so that willy-waving isn't the be all and end all? Now is the time to ask these questions if only because Labour's 101 women MPs and positive discrimination in the Scottish parliament seem to have made little difference. Labour's star women -- Harriet Harman, Mo Mowlam, Wendy Alexander, Susan Deacon, Estelle Morris -- have come and gone without making much of a long-term impact. The most potent role model for women in politics remains, I'm afraid, Margaret Thatcher. She seems to have been the only one capable of taking on the beasts and winning. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 03:29:30 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:29:30 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18679G-0005Qd-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:29:30 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186796-0005zS-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:29:20 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18678l-0005zJ-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:28:59 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SAT4g14079 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:29:04 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SAT3A13996 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:29:03 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:30:45 +0200 Message-ID: <025a01c27e6c$a17bad40$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 10:30:45.0077 (UTC) FILETIME=[12BDF850:01C27E6D] Subject: [A-List] Russia: Chechen hacker alert Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:27:34 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:27:34 +0200 The timing of this news release might be considered as opportune... 'Cyber mercenary' targets west's major banks IAN BRUCE The Herald, 28 October 2002 CHECHEN rebels have recruited an expert computer hacker "cyber mercenary" to attack the west's 10 major banks, according to the FSB, Russia's state security service and the successor of the KGB. The assault on financial institutions takes the form of e-mails offering commercial services which also contain "Trojan horse" software enabling the hacker to gain access to accounts. The technique is known as "back orifice" and first emerged in 1998. It is activated by someone opening the e-mail on the target computer system. This then downloads a programme into the bank's computer, allowing the hacker to tamper with records, alter accounts, destroy key information and generally create havoc by remote control. The FSB said the new form of back orifice had been modified to evade detection by standard download protection systems and to bypass the firewalls built into sensitive systems to prevent data corruption via internet viruses. A UK security source said yesterday: "The Chechens are not renowned for their sophistication in terror tactics. The suicide bombing threat to hostages in Moscow in the siege just ended is more their style. "Our information from Russia's FSB is that they have now recruited a cyber-mercenary to step up the campaign against the west. "The whole exercise may be geared towards acquiring funds illegally to finance arms purchases or to bring their ongoing guerrilla war against Russia to international prominence. They may also feel that the west has displayed double standards and ignored their plight while condemning human rights abuses in other countries." Western banks seldom reveal details of any successful hacking penetration of their systems because it could affect public confidence and potentially damage their market position. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 03:30:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:30:33 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1867AH-0005R1-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:30:33 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1867A3-0005zw-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:30:20 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18679j-0005zn-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:30:00 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SAU4715911 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:30:04 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SAU3A15849 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:30:03 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:31:46 +0200 Message-ID: <026201c27e6c$c6300a00$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 10:31:46.0671 (UTC) FILETIME=[377477F0:01C27E6D] Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:28:36 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:28:36 +0200 Kuwait seals zone for Iraq mission Border closed to let preparations for invasion go undetected IAN BRUCE The Herald, 28 October 2002 KUWAIT has declared a large area of its northern border with Iraq a closed military zone to allow preparations for an invasion to topple Saddam Hussein to be carried out in secret. The official explanation for the exclusion zone, and the forced deportation of hundreds of farmers and Bedouin tribesmen, is fears for the safety of British and American service personnel after attacks on US Marines earlier this month. One marine was killed and another wounded by two suspected al Qaeda gunmen during an exercise on Failaka island off the Kuwaiti coast. Two further shooting incidents occurred without casualties. Suicide bombing threats have been made against Camp Doha, the desert installation which is home to 10,000 US troops and a stockpile of tanks, self-propelled artillery, and armoured personnel carriers. Military sources say the real explanation is to allow a build-up of armoured forces and supplies to sustain a campaign against Iraq while preventing Baghdad from pinpointing their positions and perhaps subjecting them to chemical or biological attack. The Ministry of Defence is fitting 238 of the UK's 326 Challenger 2 main battle tanks with special filters and other protective equipment to enable them to fight in the desert. More than half of the Challengers deployed to an exercise in Oman last year broke down when their engines became clogged with sand. Damage was estimated at £3.5m. At least three armoured regiments, each equipped with 57 tanks, are expected to be deployed to Kuwait in the next few months for "exercises". The tank units will form the backbone of a 20,000-strong British armoured division if the US orders an invasion of Iraq. The "desertised" Challengers will be used to replace vehicles knocked out in battle. The civilian-free sector will allow crews to train and become acclimatised before being committed to action. As the Gulf emirate acted, George W Bush, the US president, repeated that the US would lead a coalition against Iraq if the United Nations failed to act to ensure Saddam did not possess chemical, biological or nuclear weapons. "If the UN won't act, if Saddam Hussein won't disarm, we will lead a coalition to disarm him," Bush said at a summit of Pacific Rim leaders in Mexico. Colin Powell, his secretary of state, said key decisions had to be made and that he expected a resolution to be finalised within days. "We can't continue to have a debate that never ends," he said. The US and Britain have for six weeks been pressing the security council to back a resolution intended to force Iraq to give up weapons of mass destruction or face dire consequences. However, France and Russia have resisted, floating rival draft resolutions. All five permanent members, Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, have a veto. Baghdad kept up its war of rhetoric with Washington, accusing it yesterday of trying to intimidate the UN security council into adopting a new draft resolution that could pave the way for military action. "The evil American administration is practising clear terrorism inside and outside the security council in order to pass a new draft resolution," said al-Thawra, the newspaper of President Saddam Hussein's ruling Baath Party. "Each paragraph of the new draft represents a core of tension and an excuse for launching aggression." As the war of words continued, thousands of people across Europe and the US took to the streets at the weekend to oppose a war on Iraq. "This is going to be an ugly, unnecessary fight. Most of the world is saying 'no' to it," Jesse Jackson, the civil rights leader, told a crowd in Washington at the Vietnam veterans' memorial. Organisers said 150,000 people took part in the anti-war protest in the US capital, but witnesses put the number at fewer than 50,000. Another 40,000 marched in San Francisco, with thousands more demonstrating in Amsterdam, Berlin and other European cities. Up to 3000 people marched yesterday in an anti-war demonstration in Madrid. In the UK, the Oxford Research Group warned that a war on Iraq would heighten the risk of further terrorist attacks by al Qaeda in a destablised region, and that it could involve at least 10,000 casualties in a conventional war alone. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 03:33:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:33:33 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1867DB-0005RI-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:33:33 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1867Cx-00060W-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:33:19 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1867C6-00060N-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 03:32:26 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SAWU318885 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:32:30 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SAWTA18746 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:32:29 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:34:11 +0200 Message-ID: <026a01c27e6d$1cb5b280$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 10:34:11.0811 (UTC) FILETIME=[8DF71330:01C27E6D] Subject: [A-List] UK military: mortality problem Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:31:01 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:31:01 +0200 Expert warns Deepcut families not to trust police and Ministry of Defence LORNA MARTIN The Herald, 28 October 2002 A BALLISTICS expert who was investigating a series of deaths at Deepcut army barracks has warned the soldiers' families not to trust the police or the Ministry of Defence (MoD). Frank Swann, an independent expert with more than 40 years' experience, said police had prevented him from carrying out vital tests and had placed a gagging order on him. The MoD said the four privates, who were all found shot dead while on guard duty at the Royal Logistics Corps HQ at the Surrey base, committed suicide using their own rifles. Their families have accused the army of a cover-up and said the latest development added weight to their calls for a full public inquiry into the affair. Mr Swann, who was investigating the deaths as part of a BBC Frontline Scotland programme, said his tests into two of the shootings proved the youngsters were killed by someone else. He has made his attack on the police and MoD handling of the case on a memorial website for James Collinson, 19, from Perth, who died in March. He wrote: "If my experience is anything to go by, do NOT trust certain members of the Surrey Police or the Military ... I shall of course continue, but with restricted access to what YOU need to know." He was working with Surrey Police and was to sign a confidentiality agreement that he claimed amounted to a gagging order, and said their expert disagreed with his findings "without conducting any tests whatsoever", and said he would not carry out the further checks Mr Swann recommended. Mr Swann then encountered problems when he asked to carry out tests at Deepcut. He said: "I contacted Detective Superintendent Craig Denholm, who denied that I was ever instructed by them, even though I had been given documentation and photographs and told that I was not to show them to anyone, especially Frontline." Mr Swann said certain important "fire and laser testing" had not been carried out. Jim Collinson, James' father, said: "It was our understanding that his (Mr Swann's) tests had been very fruitful...I think they were getting a bit frightened about what he was finding out." Thirteen families who lost children at various barracks in Britain, are to lobby parliament tomorrow for a public inquiry. Last night, a Surrey Police spokeswoman said Mr Swann's conclusions would form part of any final report at the end of the investigation. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 05:06:34 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 05:06:34 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1868fC-0005p0-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 05:06:34 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1868f0-0006bs-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 05:06:22 -0700 Received: from granger.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.148]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1868eR-0006bO-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 05:05:47 -0700 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by granger.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 1868eQ-0004uf-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:05:46 -0500 Message-ID: <002e01c27e7a$5759ad80$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: References: <026201c27e6c$c6300a00$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> Subject: Re: [A-List] US imperialism: Iraq MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:05:38 -0500 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:05:38 -0500 Just a note on The Independent's snide comment that "witnesses" put the DC crowd of Oct 26 at less than 50,000. I was there, and I can say categorically that 150,000 is conservative. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 06:30:59 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 06:30:59 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1869yr-0006VL-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 06:30:57 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1869yd-0007R3-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 06:30:43 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1869xg-0007Qt-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 06:29:44 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SDTm703160 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:29:48 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SDTkA03098 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:29:46 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:31:31 +0200 Message-ID: <02e901c27e85$e1784160$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 13:31:31.0061 (UTC) FILETIME=[5373CA50:01C27E86] Subject: [A-List] New Labour as the triumph of Cold War liberalism Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:28:19 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:28:19 +0200 We've covered MacShane's activities here before. A stalwart of the ICFTU during the 1970s and 80s, setting up his own European labour research unit and using it as a base from which to bombard dull periodicals like the New Statesman with lots of mealy-mouthed parlour socialist fluff very much in tune with contemporaneous political currents (Dromey syndrome with subtlety), he's now a Blairite loyalist who is also chairman of the Fabian Society and was last heard of slagging off Hugo Chavez when it looked like the latter had been deposed, only to go into hiding when Chavez was restored to power. As a Europe Minister he's the obvious replacement for Peter Hain, although Hain retains his membership of Giscard D'Estaing's European Convention, an indication of the pecking order (and, objectively, ability). 11.45am update Denis MacShane named as Europe minister Matthew Tempest, political correspondent The Guardian Monday October 28, 2002 Downing Street this morning put in place the final piece of its reshuffle jigsaw when it was announced that Denis MacShane will take over from Peter Hain as minister for Europe. Mr Hain was promoted to cabinet level by when he became secretary of state for Wales in the reshuffle following Estelle Morris' resignation. Tony Blair sees the Europe job as a vital "salesman" role for any possible referendum on a single currency during this parliament. Mr MacShane is currently a minister of state at the Foreign Office, with special responsibilities for the Balkans, the South Pacific and South America. His new job will mean taking up Mr Hain's rolling roadshow on the benefits of the euro. There is a certain urgency about this task, as the prime minister has set himself a deadline of June 2003 for deciding if the chancellor's five economic tests have been met. Work is underway in the Treasury on the issue - if the answer is positive, then a decision will be taken at cabinet level to recommend euro entry before a national referendum. The Europe minister will play a crucial role in any such referendum. Mr MacShane, the MP for Rotherham and a former journalist, is a media-savvy operator, with a knack for headlines, jokes and sharp suits. He once described himself as a "Eurosceptic who is profoundly pro-European", but is in fact strongly pro-euro. Bill Rammell, an assistant government whip, replaces Mr MacShane as a junior Foreign Office minister. The MP for Lincoln, Gillian Merron, enters the government for the first time as Mr Rammell's replacement in the whips office. Mr Hain keeps his post as a member of the convention planning reform of the EU in addition to his new duties as Wales minister. A spokesman for Britain in Europe welcomed the appointment of Mr MacShane, saying he was a "long-standing supporter of Britain in Europe". "But it would be wrong to draw an inference from this appointment on the timing of a referendum on the euro - that will depend on the assessment of the Treasury's five economic tests. Nothing more, nothing less," he added. George Eustice, the campaign director of the No campaign, said Mr MacShane was "obsessed" with the euro but dismissed suggestions that the appointment was evidence of a pro-euro campaign. "Denis MacShane has long been obsessed by the euro, but if the Government was serious about launching a pro-euro campaign in the short term, they would probably have appointed someone with more campaigning ability. "However, the decision about whether or not to hold a referendum is will be dominated by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown and the rest of the cabinet will have very little influence." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 06:40:08 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 06:40:08 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186A7e-0006iL-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 06:40:02 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186A7P-0007UO-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 06:39:47 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186A5l-0007Ti-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 06:38:06 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SDc9N16191 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:38:09 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SDc8A16129 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:38:08 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:39:52 +0200 Message-ID: <02f101c27e87$0c555980$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 13:39:52.0499 (UTC) FILETIME=[7E552830:01C27E87] Subject: [A-List] UK eurozone membership Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:36:41 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:36:41 +0200 Firms still cool on Europe but more warm to the euro David Gow, industrial editor Monday October 28, 2002 The Guardian British industry is slowly warming to the euro but rapidly cooling towards an EU seen as economically stagnant and over-regulated, a survey shows today. The poll of 500 manufacturing firms, by the Engineering Employers' Federation, shows that the proportion favouring entry to the euro as soon as possible or between 2003 and 2005 has grown from 21% to 29% in the past two years. But the survey, the first since euro notes and coins were introduced in January, adds little weight to the view of pro-single currency campaigners that manufacturers are clamouring for Britain to join. There was greater support among the auto and steel industries, however. The findings, with only 16% seeing UK entry by 2005 as very likely but 87% expecting it by 2010, support the government's apparently cautious approach. It has only committed itself to publishing the results of its five economic tests for entry by next summer. "I would have thought it was difficult for the government to win a referendum in this parliament," said Martin Temple, EEF director-general. He said 55% of firms were still undecided on the issue. The level of support for early entry is only slightly higher than in a 1999 CBI poll. As many as 56% said delayed entry would have no impact and only one in 10 suggested a delay may put them off investing in the UK. Since its last survey in January 2001, the EEF has found that fewer companies see the EU as a significant growth market - down from 58% to 44%. China, north America and, to a lesser extent, eastern Europe are gaining in importance and are also viewed as an increasing competitive threat. The findings do suggest that manufacturing companies are prepared to see entry to the single currency at a higher exchange rate than in the past. In a surprising development for the EEF, firms said they could live with entry at ?1.48 (equivalent to 2.90 German marks) compared with the current rate of ?1.59 or DM3.10. In the late 1990s the manufacturing sector argued for entry closer to DM2.60-2.75. Stephen Radley, EEF chief economist, said firms believed they could rebuild depressed margins and restore reasonably good profitability at ?1.48. The car and steel industries are known to favour a lower rate of entry. Warmer support for the euro requires a significantly improved economic performance in the eurozone, including changes to the stability and growth pact, according to 61%, and reduced EU involvement in employment and social affairs, according to 54%. Mr Radley said: "We have seen stronger support for the euro but poor world markets, the rise in costs, pensions, insurance and regulation are the immediate issues for business." Britain in Europe, which is urging a Yes vote to the euro in any referendum, said: "British business is warming to the euro as it becomes clear that isolation from it is undermining British trade, damaging inward investment and hurting British exporters." But Business for Sterling, part of the No campaign, said. "Engineering firms can see the problems the euro is causing in Germany and realise we're better off keeping control." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 06:42:13 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 06:42:13 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186A9d-0006ma-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 06:42:05 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186A9F-0007VF-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 06:41:41 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186A8U-0007V0-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 06:40:54 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SDeww19243 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:40:58 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SDeuA19181 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:40:56 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:42:40 +0200 Message-ID: <02f901c27e87$70c5ef60$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 13:42:40.0999 (UTC) FILETIME=[E2C43770:01C27E87] Subject: [A-List] US state: Christian Coalition & Israel Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:39:29 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:39:29 +0200 Meet the new Zionists The members of the Christian Coalition of America are some of the most passionate defenders of Israel in the United States. There's just one catch: they want to convert all Jews to Christianity. Matthew Engel reports on an unholy alliance Monday October 28, 2002 The Guardian At first sight, the scene is very familiar: one that happens in Washington DC and other major American cities all the time. On the platform, an Israeli student is telling thousands of supporters how the horrors of the year have only reinforced his people's determination. "Despite the terror attacks, they'll never drive us away out of our God-given land," he says. This is greeted with whoops and hollers and waving of Israeli flags and the blowing of the shofar, the Jewish ceremonial ram's horn. Then comes the mayor of Jerusalem, Ehud Olmert, who is received even more rapturously. "God is with us. You are with us." And there are more whoops and hollers and flag-waves and shofar-blows. This support is not offered with any ifs or buts either. The placards round the hall insist that every inch of the Holy Land should belong to Israel and that there should never be a Palestinian state. These assertions are backed up by biblical quotations. It could be a rally in Jerusalem for those Israelis who think Ariel Sharon is a dangerous softie. But something very strange is going on here. There are thousands of people cheering for Israel in the huge Washington Convention Centre. But not one of them appears to be Jewish, at least not in the conventional sense. For this is the annual gathering of a very non-Jewish organisation indeed: the Christian Coalition of America. And the strangest thing of all is not their support, which is a novel and important development in American politics, but the thinking that lies behind it - which is altogether more chilling to Israel's traditional supporters than all the cheers and flags would suggest. You might also describe it as downright weird. In a country where weekly church attendance is about 20 times the level it is in Britain (40% v 2%), the relationship between religion and politics in the US is intense. And there is little doubt that, last spring, when President Bush dithered and dallied over his Middle East policy before finally coming down on Israel's side, he was influenced not by the overrated Jewish vote, but by the opinion of Christian "religious conservatives" - the self-description of between 15 and 18% of the electorate. When the president demanded that Israel withdraw its tanks from the West Bank in April, the White House allegedly received 100,000 angry emails from Christian conservatives. A decade ago, when the president's father was in the White House, his eldest son's election-time job was to act as unofficial ambassador to this group, offer assurances that they and the administration were at one on such matters as abortion and pornography and prayer in schools, the issues they like to group together as "family values". US-Israel relations, which reached rock bottom when George Bush Sr was president and the obstreperous Yitzhak Shamir was Israeli prime minister, were never an issue. What's changed? Not the Book of Genesis, which is what Michael Brown, the coalition's church liaison officer, quotes when you ask him to explain the support for Israel. "And I will make of thee a great nation," the Lord told Abraham, "And I will bless them that bless thee and curse them that curse thee." On the conference floor, however, the explanation has more to do with the end of the world than the start of it. What has really changed is the emergence of the doctrine known as "dispensationalism", popularised in the novels of the Rev Tim LaHaye and Jerry Jenkins. LaHaye and Jenkins may not mean much to you or to the readers of the New York Times Book Review, but the ninth volume of their Left Behind series sold three million hardback copies in the US last year, eclipsing John Grisham. Central to the theory - based on a reading of scripture Brown would prefer not to discuss - is the Rapture, the second coming of Christ, which will presage the end of the world. A happy ending depends on the conversion of the Jews. And that, to cut a long story very short, can only happen if the Jews are in possession of all the lands given to them by God. In other words, these Christians are supporting the Jews in order to abolish them. Oh yes, agreed Marion Pollard, a charming lady from Dallas who was selling hand-painted Jerusalem crystal in the exhibition hall at the conference. "God is the sovereign. He'll do what he pleases. But based on the scripture, those are the guidelines." She calls herself a fervent supporter of Israel, as does Lewis Hall of North Carolina. "I believe they do have to accept the Messiah." And if they don't? "I believe they will when they know who He is. I believe that one day they are going to wake up. It might take a third world war to do that." Meanwhile, outside the hall was Leanne Cariker from Oklahoma, carrying a placard saying "Just Say No! To A Palestinian State". Her support of Israel is based on the same premise. "The Bible says there is no way to worship God except through the son," she explains. To add to the bizarreness of this scene, she was standing opposite another group of demonstrators: anti-Zionist Hasidic Jews from Brooklyn in long black coats, who oppose the state of Israel based on their own reading of the Bible. Confused? You should be. Poor Leanne Cariker was. "I'm not against them," she wailed. "I'm for them. I believe they're God's chosen people." You might think these Christian activists represent the furthest shores of American politico-religious wackiness. The politicians don't think so. This conference began with a videotaped benediction straight from the Oval office. Some of the most influential republicans in Congress addressed the gathering including - not once, but twice - Tom DeLay, who is hot favourite to take over as majority leader of the House of Representatives after the midterm elections on November 5, thus becoming arguably the most powerful man on Capitol Hill. "Are you tired of all this, are you?" he yelled to the audience. "Nooooooo!" they roared back. "Not when you're standing up for Jews and Jesus, that's for sure," he replied. Jews habitually do not stand up for Jesus (although this conference did have a sprinkling of Messianic Jews, who do just that). But most Jewish leaders have opted to shrug, accept the Christians' support and let them whistle for their conversions. That certainly goes for Ariel Sharon, the Israeli prime minister, reportedly greeted "like a rock star" by Christian evangelicals in Jerusalem last month. More thoughtful leaders are at least concerned. "I'm going to take the support because Israel needs it," said Rabbi Jerome Epstein, vice-president of the US's conservative (in this context middle-of-the-road) Jewish organisation, the United Synagogue. "Their theology is in a different world. We can cope with it. If I convince them not to support Israel, are they going to give up their attempt to convert Jews? No." Not everyone accepts this. "They don't love the real Jewish people," the author Gershom Gorenberg told the CBS programme 60 Minutes. "They love us as characters in their story, in their play, and that's not who we are. If you listen to the drama that they are describing, essentially it's a five-act play in which the Jews disappear in the fourth act." This is not something speakers at the rally are anxious to emphasise. DeLay was followed by Pat Robertson, the coalition's founder, sometime presidential candidate and the very personification of the successful American TV evangelist: blow-dried hair, stick-on smile, expensive suit, honeyed voice and certainty of tone. Robertson prefers to dwell on Arab plans to drive Israel into the sea and the iniquity of Yasser Arafat and "his gang of thugs". But he also cites the stories of Joshua and David to prove Israel's ownership of Jerusalem "long before anyone had heard of Mohammed". Robertson has now retired from the coalition, leaving it in the hands of Roberta Combs, a grandmother from South Carolina who has the longest and most scarlet fingernails I have ever seen. She scratches them across the table when she wants to make a point. In an interview, her most vigorous point is in support of Bush. "I think he's a great president. I think he's a caring person. First of all, he's a Christian, which I identify with. He's pro-family, he's pro-life, he's a friend of mine." Combs is not in the Robertson league as a communicator. And when I shift the conversation round to Israel, she discovers an urgent need to attend to her toddler grandson, leaving me with her aide Michael Brown. The prevailing view is that the coalition, a powerful voice in the early 90s, is not the force it was. This is partly held to be due to her failings, and partly to the rhetorical excesses of Robertson and his ally Jerry Falwell, leader of the Moral Majority, especially in September last year when Falwell, on Robertson's TV show, blamed the attacks on, among others, "the pagans and the abortionists and the feminists and the gays and the lesbians". The other week Falwell called Mohammed a terrorist, which might have accounted for his unexplained non-appearance at the conference. But even the coalition's most tireless opponent does not sense any kind of victory. Rev Barry Lynn, himself an ordained minister and head of the pressure group Americans United for Separation of Church and State, likes to start his speeches by saying: "The good news is that the Christian Coalition is fundamentally collapsing. The bad news is that the people who ran it are all in the government." Whenever he goes over to the department of justice, he keeps running into Pat Robertson's old lawyers. The linkage between the Christian right and the Republican party is getting ever stronger, especially in the electorally crucial states of the south and west. And Lynn is alarmed at the prospects for the midterm elections. The Republicans are quite likely to regain control of the Senate, removing the roadblock that currently stops the president appointing conservative judges ("impartial judges", according to most Republicans; "rabid rightwingers," according to their opponents) to lower courts and, when the expected vacancies arise, to the supreme court. This will give the right, and most particularly the religious right, unprecedented influence over all three branches of government in Washington. "Karl Rove [Bush's political guru] has said publicly you cannot alienate your base. You cannot alienate that 18% of religious conservatives. You don't mess with these people," says Lynn. "They want you to be just as they are. And Bush is just as they are. He may waffle on one or two issues, such as stem-cell research. But fundamentally he comes down on their side." In the short term this might not alter American life all that much. It might take a generation for the Supreme Court to roll back the restrictions that, for instance, forbid prayer in school. The abortion debate is for the moment dormant. Neither the churches nor the government show any sign of imposing teenage sexual abstinence any time soon. Not before, say, the conversion of the Jews. One of the points Robertson likes to emphasise is to reject accusations that the coalition's support of Israel is a "Johnny come lately experience". "We've been with them through thick and thin," he says. This is a point made by several of his supporters, one of whom presses on me a little booklet with quotes from Christian theologians on the subject. He especially recommends the one from Jonathan Edwards, the 18th-century puritan divine. "The Jews in all their dispersions shall cast away their old infidelity," said Edwards, "and shall have their hearts wonderfully changed, and abhor themselves for their past unbelief and obstinacy. They shall flow together to the blessed Jesus." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 07:01:07 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:01:07 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186AS2-00073p-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:01:06 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186ARl-0007k0-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:00:49 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186AQd-0007jj-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 06:59:39 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SDxhT03600 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:59:43 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SDxeA03441 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:59:40 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:01:23 +0200 Message-ID: <031301c27e8a$0e0217c0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 14:01:23.0842 (UTC) FILETIME=[80087620:01C27E8A] Subject: [A-List] UK news media: Birt's mission to explain deconstructed Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:58:12 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:58:12 +0200 Hurrah for John Tusa! Splendid chap... BBC takes revenge on Lord Birt of Armani By James Morrison, Arts and Media Correspondent The Independent, 27 October 2002 The BBC has turned on John Birt, its former director general, by broadcasting a documentary portraying him as a power-crazed egotist whose ultimate downfall was caused by his own unbridled ambition. The programme, to be shown tomorrow, highlights Lord Birt's obsession with incomprehensible management jargon as well as his penchant for Armani suits. Criticism comes from all quarters, including ex-colleagues Michael Grade and John Tusa. Lord Birt, the director general for eight years until 2000, has since had a series of roles as a "blue-skies thinker" - acting as adviser on both crime and transport - with the Government. Mr Tusa, a former head of the BBC World Service, condemns Lord Birt's approach to journalism as "almost total rubbish", while Panorama's producer, David Wickham, describes him as "phenomenally arrogant". Grade, who quit the BBC to become chief executive of Channel 4 after a public row with Lord Birt, is marginally kinder. His story, he argues, is the "great tragedy" of a flawed but gifted man with a fatal "lust for power". The 30-minute film, to be shown on BBC4, is bound to provoke criticism that it is a thinly veiled fan statement for his more affable successor, Greg Dyke, whose supporters are often accused of caricaturing Lord Birt. Understanding John Birt opens as it means to go on, with the irreverent introduction: "John Birt was the most controversial and certainly the most vilified head of the BBC in its 70-odd years. "The Birt story is one of ambition, power and intrigue. It's the story of someone who was prepared to go to any lengths to get what he wanted." Charting Lord Birt's rise from his humble beginnings as the son of a Merseyside tyre salesman to peer of the realm and sometime confidant of Tony Blair, it paints a picture of a socially inept but ruthlessly efficient bureaucrat. His tenure at the BBC is depicted as an Orwellian nightmare of corporate buzz-words and sudden announcements from blank monitor screens. Michael Grade, who worked closely with Lord Birt at both London Weekend Television and the BBC, describes how his early promise was thwarted by growing arrogance and ambition. "The great tragedy of John, for me was that he should have been one of the greatest creative executives British television has ever known," he says. "All of that has got lost and that's a great tragedy. He lost his way somewhere in the pursuit of a career." Grade, who in his autobiography likened Lord Birt's social skills to those of a "Trappist monk", recalls how Lord Birt's empire-building started at LWT. "The non-Birt people - those of us that weren't called John Birt - used to wake up and ask which new bit of our empire has he snaffled overnight to add to his. It was like Monopoly. He would buy the utilities and buy Regent Street and Bond Street." Mr Tusa, now managing director of London's Barbican, brands Lord Birt's approach to current affairs as largely "unviewable", adding: "I think his theory of journalism is almost total rubbish. It bears no relationship to the nature of events. It bears no relationship to what gathering news on the ground is like. "Above all, it has no intellectual curiosity. He wasn't interested in what anybody else had to say - he was interested in his pre-ordained theory." Wickham concedes that, "John Birt was a very personable chap ... but he had this steely thing about him that brooked no argument, and he was phenomenally arrogant." A spokeswoman for Lord Birt said he declined to take part in the programme because of the hectic schedule surrounding publication of his memoirs, The Harder Way. However, she said he would "not be surprised" by many of the comments. Not all contributors to the documentary are so critical. Cilla Black, a friend of John Birt's from his youth, paints an unlikely picture of a colourful character in stark contrast to his grey public image. "He's a great dancer, a great jiver," she says. "God, can he move!" From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 07:06:13 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:06:13 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186AWk-00078q-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:05:58 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186AWV-0007mr-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:05:43 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186AVK-0007mY-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:04:31 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SE4YB07936 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:04:34 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SE4WA07874 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:04:32 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:06:17 +0200 Message-ID: <031b01c27e8a$bcd41f00$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 14:06:17.0139 (UTC) FILETIME=[2EDA0830:01C27E8B] Subject: [A-List] UK labour militancy & public order Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:03:05 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:03:05 +0200 Classic -- the Leader of the House of Commons tells others to modernise their working practices... Fire union tried to push left-winger on to inquiry By Barrie Clement and Ben Russell The Independent, 28 October 2002 Firefighters' leaders made a covert attempt to influence the membership of the Bain inquiry into pay and modernisation of the fire service, it was revealed yesterday. Fire Brigades Union officials have refused to take part in the inquiry headed by Professor Sir George Bain. But it is now known that the FBU urged Rodney Bickerstaffe, the left-wing former leader of the public service union Unison, to take up one of three seats on the high-profile committee. Mr Bickerstaffe refused after Andy Gilchrist, general secretary of the FBU, made it clear that his union would continue to lambast the inquiry publicly despite the former Unison leader's membership. Fire authorities had indicated they would have accepted Mr Bickerstaffe's participation. Sir Tony Young, former leader of the Communication Workers' Union, took up the place on the recommendation of the TUC and promptly rubbished the FBU's demands for a pay rise of nearly 40 per cent, to take basic pay to £30,000 a year. There were signs last night that the union would be prepared to hold talks on the basis of a pay offer of 16 per cent. Mick Shergold, London Secretary of the FBU, said: "If the employers put 16 per cent on the table, that would be a good point to start negotiations." But he warned that such an offer would not satisfy most fire crews. "My position and undoubtedly the position of most firefighters I have met this week is they are more determined than I have ever seen before," he said. Professor Bain is expected to produce an interim statement from his review in the next two weeks, which is likely to intensify efforts to find a solution to the pay dispute. The statement is likely to outline the inquiry's broad thinking on issues such as pay structures and working patterns, but will not make specific recommendations of pay rates. Professor Bain has steadfastly refused to bring forward the inquiry's full report, saying that the inquiry can either be done "thoroughly or quickly, not both". Local authority leaders will meet today ahead of fresh talks this week. The FBU agreed to meet employers after cancelling two 48-hour strikes following intensive talks with John Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister. Strikes planned for tomorrow and Wednesday and from Saturday to Monday will now not go ahead, so the FBU can meet local authority employers on Wednesday and Thursday. But an eight-day strike could start on 6 November, followed by further walkouts until Christmas Eve. Ministers welcomed the development, but insisted that any pay deal had to be linked to reform. Robin Cook, the Leader of the Commons, told the BBC's Breakfast with Frost programme that any pay rise for firefighters would have to be based on an agreement to modernise working practices. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 07:16:24 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:16:24 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Agp-0007I5-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:16:23 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Agb-0007tm-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:16:09 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Aen-0007tP-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:14:17 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SEELP16934 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:14:21 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SEEJA16872 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:14:19 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:16:03 +0200 Message-ID: <032301c27e8c$1a9b45e0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 14:16:03.0967 (UTC) FILETIME=[8CA0E0F0:01C27E8C] Subject: [A-List] EU integration struggles Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:12:52 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:12:52 +0200 Hari Kumar asked: i) Is it in any way progressive for individual nations to attempt to 'withdraw' from the EU? To which Mark responded: Whether it's progressive or not, it isn't on the agenda and is not a meaningful political prospect. ----- Which is not to say that the article below indicates that it is on the agenda, but merely to record that mechanisms are being put into place to allow for presumably orderly withdrawal. 'Skeleton' EU constitution calls for strong president By Stephen Castle in Brussels The Independent, 28 October 2002 A "skeleton" constitution for Europe will raise the prospect of a powerful new EU president, a congress of national and European parliamentarians and an "exit clause" for nations that want to quit. The draft document, released today, will be the first concrete sign of the thinking of Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, the former French president who is chairing a convention of 105 politicians investigating the future of Europe. The document will identify the central issues for a revamped EU and devise a structure for a new treaty. However, many of the most sensitive points will be left unresolved. Mr Giscard's blueprint will suggest that the EU has one unified treaty and gain a "single legal personality" - allowing the EU to sign treaties and sit on international bodies such as the United Nations. The current complex structure that divides policy areas into separate "pillars" will be axed. The document will accommodate the possibility of a new president of the European Council, opening the way for Tony Blair's preference, a powerful leader drawn from the ranks for former prime ministers or presidents. The selected person might be approved by a new congress that would meet periodically to take big decisions. But it will have no detailed proposal for a new EU president, which is contentious because smaller member states believe it will weaken the power of the European Commission. It will also have provision for an "exit clause", allowing nations that want to leave the EU to do so. At present, no such mechanism exists, although the EC treaty was amended in 1984 to exclude Greenland, which had won home rule from Denmark. Again, little detail will be settled and one crucial issue may be left unresolved: whether nations which fail to ratify treaties would, in effect, exclude themselves. Most of the specifics have been left vague because the convention has still to reach consensus on most of its work. The document will be designed, in part, to provoke a debate and help discover a consensus. Mr Giscard's convention is due to finish its work next summer but its conclusions must be agreed by the heads of all EU governments. It may also open the way for the EU to be renamed - Mr Giscard has already voiced a preference for "United Europe", and a slogan to stress Europe's main objectives, such as "justice, solidarity and liberty". Mr Giscard's document follows the Brussels EU summit last week, which brought strong signs of a Franco- German rapprochement. Paris and Berlin now plan to produce a joint paper on the future of Europe, probably in time for the 40th anniversary of the 1963 treaty that bound the two nations. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 07:19:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:19:37 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Ajw-0007Sa-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:19:36 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Ajj-0007uN-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:19:23 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Ahu-0007uB-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:17:30 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SEHX419235 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:17:33 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SEHVA19105 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:17:31 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:19:16 +0200 Message-ID: <033101c27e8c$8d279d20$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 14:19:16.0124 (UTC) FILETIME=[FF29B5C0:01C27E8C] Subject: [A-List] EU integration struggles: CAP reform Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:16:04 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:16:04 +0200 Blair attacks France for freeze on farm reform Franco-German agreement on agriculture spending creates rift between London and Paris By Stephen Castle in Brussels The Independent, 26 October 2002 Tony Blair launched a scathing attack yesterday on French efforts to preserve Europe's controversial agriculture policy, as leaders agreed plans to freeze farm spending from 2007 to help fund EU expansion. On the back foot, after a Franco-German deal which restrains spending but staves off pressure for far-reaching change, Mr Blair insisted that reform of farm subsidies remained "inevitable". As relations between London and Paris took a nosedive, the French President, Jacques Chirac, responded with another attack on the UK's annual £2bn budget rebate, and argued that, without a Franco-German axis, the EU would "grind to a halt". The Prime Minister, clearly irritated at being on the outside of the Franco-German deal, nevertheless fell in behind the plan brokered by Mr Chirac and Gerhard Schröder, the German Chancellor. The blueprint, which opens the way to EU enlargement, will freeze the total farms budget between 2007 and 2013 to ensure there is no cost explosion when 10 new members join the Union. The EU leaders had to overcome a last-minute hitch as France and Germany rowed over whether or not agriculture spending, due to hit ?45.3bn (£28.5bn) in 2006, would be able to rise in line with inflation after 2007. Eventually they agreed that increases would be no more than 1 per cent, meaning that in real terms farm payments may go down. But before leaving the Brussels summit Mr Blair insisted: "We understand the issues that countries have and their concerns about the protection of their farming industry but in the end the world is only moving in one direction - and that is of liberalisation. The CAP does damage to the developing world and its maintenance in its present form is inconsistent with the commitment we have given to the developing world and we have to make sure that there is change." Mr Blair argued that the European Commission already has a remit to proceed with agriculture reform. Moreover, under World Trade Organisation negotiations the EU had to be able "to make an offer on agriculture reform", he said. In many respects the deal shaped by the EU heads of government last night was satisfactory for the UK because it guarantees a cap on agriculture costs and does not rule out reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. The document makes no mention of the UK's annual £2bn rebate, although Mr Chirac later told journalists that it was the last unreformed element of expenditure. But after yesterday's agreement by the 15 heads of government the EU can go ahead with an offer to farmers from the 10 applicant countries of 25 per cent of the direct subsidies which go to their EU counterparts in 2004, phasing in the full 100 per cent over a decade. The EU leaders also agreed on ?23bn in aid up to 2007 to develop the poorest regions of the new members. Another battle looms in 2006 when the new, enlarged EU debates the next financial package. At that point the UK budget rebate will be on the agenda. Diplomats were divided over the prospects of the revived Franco-German axis, particularly after yesterday's dispute over the detail of what the two leaders had agreed. The next test is whether they can agree on ideas for the future of Europe. One diplomat commented: "We have managed to start the Franco-German motor but there is not guessing how long it will take to stall." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 08:19:31 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:19:31 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Bfs-0007zM-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:19:28 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186BfZ-0008Mm-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:19:09 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Bdt-0008Ma-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:17:25 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SFHSv29150 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:17:28 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SFHRA29088 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:17:27 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:19:11 +0200 Message-ID: <035001c27e94$ec52bca0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 15:19:11.0874 (UTC) FILETIME=[5E659E20:01C27E95] Subject: [A-List] UK legitimation crisis: pensions Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:00:52 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:00:52 +0200 A company pension more lethal than the bear John Plender on Monday Financial Times, October 21 2002 Yet another mis-sold pup Conventional wisdom has it that defined contribution occupational pensions, in which employees shoulder all the investment risk, are a bad thing. Defined benefit schemes, which promise to pay a pension related usually to final salary, are widely thought to be safer. Yet events in the pensions business suggest to me that perceptions are about to change in a big way. Consider what has happened at the Sea-Land subsidiary of international shipping group Maersk. Maersk has decided it is no longer prepared to fund the £10m pension fund. The fund is deep in deficit and would require a substantial increase in company contributions to meet current pension liabilities in full. It nonetheless meets the UK's minimum funding requirement. The result is that some employees will lose up to 60 per cent of their pension entitlement. Since Maersk is owned by the big Danish shipping group A P Moller, which remains very much in business, this looks particularly cynical, even though the company is meeting the winding-up costs. But there will be many more cases where funds will fail to meet pension obligations because of the bankruptcy of the employer. TXU Europe, for example, may be the first of many in the power generation business to go into administration. In this bear market, with deficits popping up all over, people will become more aware of the inadequacy of the minimum funding requirement, which fails to provide a solvency guarantee, and of the arbitrary way in which the fund is allocated. Pensioners come out best, younger workers come out badly and workers close to retirement suffer the galling experience of seeing pension rights vanish that would have remained intact if they had retired months earlier. Share prices have not fallen by 60 per cent, even in this particularly steep bear market, which highlights the insecurity of pension rights in defined benefit schemes. Sue Ward, an independent pensions expert who sat on the Goode committee on pension law reform, detects another case of pensions mis-selling. She recently told the House of Commons select committee on work and pensions that scheme members have much less security than they were led to believe. The whole point of a pension fund is to ensure that the pension is safe even if the company goes down. But recently, says Mrs Ward, the pensions industry has redefined its sales pitch to say that the pension promise is only as good as the company's solvency. If so, she adds, it is hard to see how any individual can ever properly be advised to join a final salary scheme in the private sector. A salvo worth thinking about. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 08:33:11 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:33:11 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Bsz-000881-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:33:01 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Bsh-0000AV-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:32:43 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Brn-00009q-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:31:47 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SFVph06398 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:31:51 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SFVnA06257 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:31:49 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:33:33 +0200 Message-ID: <035101c27e96$ee1d7fa0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 15:33:33.0874 (UTC) FILETIME=[60306120:01C27E97] Subject: [A-List] US economy: flight to European quality? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:30:22 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:30:22 +0200 US investors learn to look towards Europe By Deborah Hargreaves in London Financial Times, October 21 2002 Are large US institutional investors turning to European stocks as a refuge from the corporate scandals in their own market? Brunswick, the financial public relations company, has surveyed US investors with holdings of at least $500m (E514m) in European stocks. It found what it describes as one of the biggest shifts in investor attitudes to European companies opinion since its report was first published in 1998. European managers were once seen as unimaginative and lacking in entrepreneurial flair, but this is now seen as an advantage. However, US investors stressed the need for Europe to improve disclosure to shareholders and wanted face-to-face meetings. "While disclosure in Europe is seen as equally bad as in the US, investors view European companies as a little more inherently honest -- not because they are better human beings but because they weren't carried away by the cycle of exuberance and greed," says Bill Gross of Pimco, the world's biggest bond investor. Nevertheless, Michael Schoeck, head of active equities at State Street Global Advisors in Boston, which with $770bn under management is the world's biggest institutional fund manager, sounds a note of caution. He said that from 1994 to June this year, US stocks had "whipped" European shares, outperforming them by 60 per cent. He is also sceptical whether diversifying into Europe works, noting that investors can gain global exposure through multinational companies based in the US. The UK continues to attract the lion's share of US investment in Europe -- 80 per cent by value -- but investors did highlight the importance of the euro in their decision to buy stocks. In February, the euro had barely registered on US investors' radar screens, but by August, 36 per cent of respondents believed a stronger euro was a reason to buy European equities. That did not stop investors from pulling away slightly from France and Germany, although the Netherlands and Switzerland benefitted from a general flight to quality. The proportion of Swiss equities held by the sample of investors rose from 9 per cent last year to 12.4 per cent, putting it level with France. US investors cut back UK holdings after September 11 last year to a level of about 25 per cent, but have since increased their exposure to 27.4 per cent -- the highest for three years. Another surprise finding is US investors' disdain for their domestic generally accepted accounting principles. Just over 70 per cent of US investors said they found Europe's International Accounting Standards offered better disclosure, with 42 per cent opting for GAAP. However, 89 per cent said a strong balance sheet was important. US investors have also increased exposure to emerging markets such as Russia and are investing more in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary ahead of European Union enlargement. Interestingly, US investors' views on the European Commission have changed. Last year with several vetoes of big US mergers on their minds, investors were not so concerned about Brussels' powers in competition policy. They saw it as a force for greater shareholder value, overriding national governments on issues such as golden shares. The research was carried out in August among 72 analysts and portfolio managers at 54 institutions, accounting for $674bn in European equities. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 08:33:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:33:38 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186BtY-00089E-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:33:36 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186BtH-0000At-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:33:19 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186BsX-0000AP-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:32:33 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SFWbm06892 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:32:37 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SFWaA06820 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:32:36 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:34:19 +0200 Message-ID: <035901c27e97$098d1e80$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 15:34:19.0874 (UTC) FILETIME=[7B9B6C20:01C27E97] Subject: [A-List] Al-Jazeera under threat Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:31:08 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:31:08 +0200 Al-Jazeera hit by advertising ban By Jason Nissé, Business Editor The Independent on Sunday, 27 October 2002 The future of Al-Jazeera, the independent Arabic news service, is threatened by an advertising boycott created by political pressure within the Middle East. The TV station, best known for broadcasting tapes of Osama bin Laden, is losing up to $30m (£19m) a year and is under pressure to find new sources of revenue. Al-Jazeera was founded in 1996 with a $150m investment by the Emir of Qatar. He hoped the service would be self-funding by 2001 but it has missed that target and the emir has had to put another $30m of his own money into the venture. Al-Jazeera's management blames its financial troubles on Arab governments who are unhappy with its uncensored coverage, which has seen it carry not only the Bin Laden tapes, but also interviews with Israeli ministers and Saudi Arabian dissidents and, last week, messages from the Chechen kidnappers in Moscow. Al-Jazeera, which is broadcast via satellite, cannot be blocked but its journalists can be banned, as Jordan, Kuwait, Iran and the Palestinian Authority have done. Economic pressure is also being brought to bear, largely from Saudi Arabia. "A lot of companies are instructed not to advertise on Al-Jazeera," claims Ali Mohammed Kamal, the station's marketing director. "We could have had double the revenue we have now." Mr Kamal said Al-Jazeera was operating on a year-by-year basis and must agree a fresh budget with the Emir of Qatar if it is to continue. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 08:40:51 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:40:51 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186C0W-0008DN-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:40:48 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186C03-0000Fh-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:40:19 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186BzS-0000FY-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:39:42 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SFdk112231 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:39:46 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SFdiA12158 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:39:44 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:41:29 +0200 Message-ID: <037101c27e98$097fe2a0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 15:41:29.0280 (UTC) FILETIME=[7B8D9400:01C27E98] Subject: [A-List] EU stability & growth pact: UK to the rescue? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:38:17 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:38:17 +0200 See also http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2002w43/msg00027.htm http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2002w43/msg00102.htm Stephen King: Opportunity knocks for Brown's grand euro design Rather than the Growth and Stability Pact, we would end up with the Chancellor's Golden Rule The Independent, 28 October 2002 Opportunity knocks! Gordon Brown is probably facing the best chance he'll ever have of getting Britain into the euro. Ironically, this opportunity has arisen primarily because of the euro's manifest weaknesses, not because of a sudden recognition that the euro's institutional arrangements are superior to those in the UK. The Chancellor can now more easily join on his own terms. Think of the plaudits he would receive: "The great euro reformer"; "The euro saviour"; "New Labour, new euro." The key point is this: Europe's leaders may finally have an appetite for reform. They have recognised - albeit grudgingly - that the euro is not working as well as it might. The European Central Bank may not have done a bad job so far - inflation has been quite well behaved and, although not directly its responsibility, recession has, for the most part, been avoided. There is, however, a lack of growth. Inflation remains stubbornly above the ECB's target range (defined as inflation of less than 2 per cent). And fiscal deficits are becoming a bigger and bigger headache. Policy makers appear to be caught in a vortex. When growth is weak, they find themselves having to raise taxes and cut public spending. They find themselves unable to lower interest rates when it might feel right to do so. And they find themselves looking enviously across La Manche at a country that is enjoying a higher growth rate and, simultaneously, both a lower rate of inflation and big increases in public spending. "Please, Gordon," they say, "Come and join us and show us the true path of prudent economic management". For the Chancellor, this could be a wonderful opportunity. He may not be so obviously pro-European as the Prime Minister but his caution relates in part to the institutional arrangements that govern the euro rather than the euro itself. For example, the Growth and Stability Pact is turning out to be a fairly draconian arrangement that would certainly stifle the Chancellor's plans for health and education. He might not want to join under the current arrangements but, if there is an opportunity for reform, membership could become a lot more attractive. Imagine. Rather than the current Growth and Stability Pact, we would end up with the Chancellor's Golden Rule. The Golden Rule allows governments to borrow for capital spending purposes but not, over the medium term, for current spending: you can borrow to build hospitals, but you can't borrow to pay the doctors and nurses that have to fill those hospitals. Faced with this kind of rule, a lot of governments in the eurozone might find that their fiscal positions were not so bad after all. Indeed, a quick look at the numbers for France and Germany suggests that a Golden Rule approach may make life easier. For Germany, removing public sector capital spending from the overall budget deficit gives only a very small deficit on current spending. In the Chancellor's medium-term framework, this really wouldn't require any immediate action. For France, removing public sector capital spending produces a current surplus of about 1 per cent of GDP. In other words, in a Brownian world, the French could happily loosen fiscal policy without complaint from any of their neighbours (see charts). There are, however, a number of catches. First, the Chancellor's numbers take account of depreciation. If this were applied to France, the numbers wouldn't look anything like as good (and depreciation rates are open to manipulation by the Chancellor as he encounters his own fiscal difficulties). Secondly, there is the small matter of the Chancellor's other fiscal rule, which requires that the ratio of public debt to GDP should not exceed 40 per cent. For the UK, this has the potential - admittedly very low - to become a tricky constraint over the next few years but for the others, it's a much more immediate problem. Germany and France are already at about 60 per cent and the Italians are well over 100 per cent. Nor do these numbers sit easily with the Maastricht euro qualifying hurdle that supposedly requires that countries should have debt/GDP ratios of no more than 60 per cent. These constraints do matter. The trouble with the Golden Rule is that it allows you to borrow whatever you want, so long as the funds raised are destined for capital spending projects. This provides a twin incentive for profligate governments: borrow a lot more than you should and, in addition, re-label a lot of current spending as capital spending. Suddenly, you're left with no fiscal discipline whatsoever. Ideally, therefore, you need some sort of constraint on debt. Oddly enough, there already is one, and it's contained within the Maastricht Treaty. Article 104c states that "member states shall avoid excessive deficits". It goes on to say that a deficit that is excessive will partly depend on "whether the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product exceeds a reference value (defined in the protocols attached to the treaty as 60 per cent of GDP), unless the ratio is sufficiently diminishing and approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace". Why not simply interpret these comments over the course of the economic cycle? In other words, don't worry too much about what happens from one year to the next but make sure that those countries that do have relatively high debts fall into line over a period of time. The fines associated with excessive deficit procedures could still be adopted but they would not have to be triggered at the first sign of deficits hitting the 3 per cent of GDP limit that seems to haunt so many of Europe's finance ministers. The third catch is the reaction of the ECB. The additional fiscal flexibility might suit some individual countries but it could be enough to give apoplexy to the ECB. The ECB has already been quite vociferous in its criticism of government commitment to fiscal reform and, doubtless, a new, more flexible, system would not be welcomed. However, deals can always be reached. Why not give the ECB two choices? Either forget about fiscal consolidation altogether and have a ridiculously loose fiscal approach, or offer the Brownian option. And, in addition, why not say that the politicians will go for the Brownian version only on condition that the ECB changes its inflation target? It would, after all, be perfectly reasonably to point out that the ECB has not hit its inflation target for three years in a row: better, therefore, to come clean and simply shift to an inflation target of, say, between 1 and 3 per cent. These changes would suit the British and could also suit a lot of other Europeans as well. The Germans could regard reform as a way of salvaging some economic success. The French would be happier to have the additional fiscal flexibility. And, for Europe as a whole, there would be a lot more room to manoeuvre. All of this might, of course, turn out to be a completely bizarre fantasy with not a chance of coming true. There are also other difficulties that still need to be overcome, for example, finding a level of sterling that would keep both Germany and Britain happy. But something like it is not entirely implausible. British membership of the euro could be regarded as a vote of confidence from a sceptical nation. The removal of policy straitjackets could reduce the chances of going into a deflationary spiral. And, for Mr Brown, the prize would be a new European architecture that would satisfy both his domestic and his European ambitions. Hughie Green would be proud of him. Stephen King is managing director of economics at HSBC. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 08:49:41 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:49:41 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186C94-0008IP-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:49:38 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186C8q-0000HY-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:49:24 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186C8L-0000HJ-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:48:53 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9SFmuw17520 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:48:56 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9SFmtA17458 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:48:55 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:50:40 +0200 Message-ID: <037901c27e99$51c423e0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 15:50:40.0061 (UTC) FILETIME=[C3D816D0:01C27E99] Subject: [A-List] EU integration struggles: UK machinations Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:47:28 +0200 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:47:28 +0200 A useful piece of gossip from the FT's Observer column highlighting Blair's successful completion of a task Gerhard Schröder is still trying to achieve: wresting control of EU policy away from the foreign ministry and placing directly under the executive. Nor will it do Hain any harm. And to focus on what the European Commission thinks about him ignores what his colleagues in the European Convention think, and they are looking more important all the time while the Commission is embroiled in various difficulties, including a damaging loss of credibility over its approach to competition policy, in addition to corruption scandals, Prodi's remarks over the "stupidity pact", etc. President Blair of a United Europe (as Giscard wants to call it) looks ever more likely -- just in time for Hain to step into the breach back home. Sorry Gordon. Observer - UK Financial Times: October 27 2002 Hain in the neck Peter Hain spent the weekend insisting that his "number one priority" will be to prove himself an excellent Welsh secretary, following his elevation to the cabinet. But much speculation surrounds the other part of his post-reshuffle life: Tony Blair wants Hain to continue representing the government at the convention on the future of Europe. The former Europe minister's curious double-life has already aroused much interest in Brussels, where European Commission officials routinely describe him as "the most irritating person in the convention". Ever since the convention started, Hain has been a tireless schmoozer, trying to persuade everyone of the merits of creating a new post of EU president - although he always stresses that Blair really isn't interested. The Commission, which hates the idea of having a rival president around the corner, can hardly hide its glee that Hain has been moved to Wales. "It's a real blow for his credibility," said one official. Alas, they fail to appreciate that, in Britain, being minister for Wales is a more senior post in Whitehall than being minister for Europe. Meanwhile, there is a turf war being waged about who Hain should report to, as he pushes the British line in the Giscard convention. Is it to Jack Straw, foreign secretary, who privately shares some of the Commission's reservations about the pushy MP for Neath? Or will Hain have a direct line into No 10, thus keeping the Foreign Office out of the loop as the debate on Europe's future reaches its climax? "The lines of responsibility have yet to be decided," says one FO flunkey, with masterly understatement. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 13:16:45 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:16:45 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186GJZ-0001HX-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:16:45 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186GJF-00028v-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:16:25 -0700 Received: from shawidc-mo1.cg.shawcable.net ([24.71.223.10] helo=pd2mo1so.prod.shaw.ca) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186GIE-00028d-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:15:22 -0700 Received: from pd4mr4so.prod.shaw.ca (pd4mr4so-qfe3.prod.shaw.ca [10.0.141.215]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with ESMTP id <0H4P00CA2K0QO0@l-daemon> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:10:02 -0700 (MST) Received: from pn2ml1so.prod.shaw.ca (pn2ml1so-qfe0.prod.shaw.ca [10.0.121.145]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with ESMTP id <0H4P00CISK0Q1N@l-daemon> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:10:02 -0700 (MST) Received: from cr185582a (h24-83-31-41.vc.shawcable.net [24.83.31.41]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with SMTP id <0H4P00212K0QO7@l-daemon> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:10:02 -0700 (MST) From: Macdonald Stainsby Subject: Re: [A-List] Zimbabwe: disintegration continues To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Message-id: <009301c27ebf$e0d98400$291f5318@vc.shawcable.net> MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4522.1200 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-priority: Normal References: <008e01c27bf3$5565cec0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> <007c01c27c15$b185f960$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:23:29 -0800 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:23:29 -0800 Thank you Stan! Someone called the BS meter in. I've decided, at great risk of being called an anti-woman monster, that I no longer believe any story of rape camps (as has also been recently levied against Mugabe/"War Veterans"/etc.). These stories float aboutthe moment a country is being sized up to be decimated by imperialism. Yugoslaiva, Mugabe, and as Oprah recently had an exile opine: "Saddma Hussein's government is the only one in the world that has people on the pay-roll specifically to carry out rapes!". Pl-l-l-l-l-lease. We cannot do the Empire's bidding for them on this question, imperialist propaganda pointed at an independant, non-compliant state is less reputable than a six year old with their hand in the cookie jar. Kudos to Stan, pointing out the racism of such reports. Macdonald ----- Original Message ----- From: "bon moun" From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 13:26:39 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:26:39 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186GT9-0001Lj-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:26:39 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186GSq-0002Gk-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:26:20 -0700 Received: from shawidc-mo1.cg.shawcable.net ([24.71.223.10] helo=pd5mo1so.prod.shaw.ca) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186GRZ-0002GY-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:25:01 -0700 Received: from pd4mr3so.prod.shaw.ca (pd4mr3so-qfe3.prod.shaw.ca [10.0.141.214]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with ESMTP id <0H4P00J59KLYCV@l-daemon> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:22:46 -0700 (MST) Received: from pn2ml7so.prod.shaw.ca (pn2ml7so-qfe0.prod.shaw.ca [10.0.121.151]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.6 (built Apr 26 2002)) with ESMTP id <0H4P00B0CKLY3G@l-daemon> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:22:46 -0700 (MST) Received: from cr185582a (h24-83-31-41.vc.shawcable.net [24.83.31.41]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with SMTP id <0H4P0043FKLXIG@l-daemon> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:22:46 -0700 (MST) From: Macdonald Stainsby Subject: Re: [A-List] Fwd: EWP, 2nd International and the fall of the fSU To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Message-id: <00ec01c27ec1$a7bf1160$291f5318@vc.shawcable.net> MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4522.1200 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: QUOTED-PRINTABLE X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-priority: Normal References: <5.1.0.14.2.20021026111152.02be77b0@pop.freeserve.net> Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:36:12 -0800 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 12:36:12 -0800 ----- Original Message ----- =46rom: "Mark Jones" (Quoting compa=F1ero Nestor:) Dear Mark, Maybe you can repost or use what follows. Been reading your comments to my comments re: EWP. Then, an ENORMOUS idea appeared in my mind. What you are trying to do is to put the train that the 2nd. Internati= onal derailed in 1914 back on its track. Yes, I feel that you are trying t= o reconstruct, in the conditions of the our times, the 2nd. Internation= al, which, in its core, was a European international. The fall of the fSU= in the early 90s has taken the world back to the conditions that precede= d WW I. -------- Nestor, the reason the 2nd International wielded such power and was o= f such importance was that the centre of Empire, that is of imperialism, was= in Europe. That is simply not even a debatable point now. Perhaps rather than retreat to the the polemics of Lenin, we should s= imply rear the re-written book with the dedication being a quotation from Ch= =E9 Guevara: "You North Americans are very lucky, you have the most important task= of all. Youy live in the belly of the beast..." We *do* need a movement/party that is based beyond borders, but that = the role of the 1914 2nd International would be taken up by a global shift in imp= erial centre that reflects today: North America. That is not to derail the EWP idea, far from it. But don't give it a = role to which it cannot possibly carry out, despite the indominatable will of= its proponents. Macdonald From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 14:18:43 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 14:18:43 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186HHX-0001YG-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 14:18:43 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186HHB-0002ZC-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 14:18:21 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186HGh-0002YX-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 14:17:51 -0700 Received: from modem-3780.snake.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.137.126.196] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 186HGe-0001pc-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 21:17:49 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] Has China Become an Ally? Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) In-Reply-To: X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Importance: Normal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 21:17:15 -0000 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 21:17:15 -0000 John Gulick's post raises some interesting issues but I have 3 caveats. (1) I don't think the US will attack Iraq (yeah, I know, contrarian), (2) the PRC and the US are locked together like 2 sumo wrestlers in an economic death-grip; it is the relationship between these 2 economies which is largely fuelling the huge and dangerous deflationary process in the world system, and this economic competition seems to me more dangerous than current rivalry with the EU or earlier rivalries with either Japan or the USSR. (3) The EU in its present fragmented state is only a danger to the US insofar as and to the degree that the US is failing in its economic competition with China (primarily, but also with Asia as a whole, because Asia is the source of deflationary pressures; deflation being stealth-war against US hegemony). The Bush agenda, as laid out in its new national defence doctrine and analysed by Anatol Lieven in the LRB recently, as Michael just pointed out to me, is a (probably doomed) attempt to retrieve US hegemony from terminal decline. Now, leaving aside all other issues, the basic point seems this: if the US is being trashed by China/Asia, is it being argued that the EU is gonna do any better? against China/Asia? That doesn't seem credible. Therefore the main contradiction in the world today is still that between the declining hegemon, the US--and China/Asia. Rivalry with the EU is not exactly a sideshow but is surely secondary. Mark From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 16:02:45 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:02:45 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186IuD-0001xG-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:02:45 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Itu-0003Mh-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:02:26 -0700 Received: from shawidc-mo1.cg.shawcable.net ([24.71.223.10] helo=pd3mo3so.prod.shaw.ca) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186ItM-0003MS-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:01:52 -0700 Received: from pd2mr4so.prod.shaw.ca (pd2mr4so-ser.prod.shaw.ca [10.0.141.107]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with ESMTP id <0H4P0035BRY9GU@l-daemon>; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:01:21 -0700 (MST) Received: from pn2ml6so.prod.shaw.ca (pn2ml6so-qfe0.prod.shaw.ca [10.0.121.150]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with ESMTP id <0H4P00ICBRY972@l-daemon>; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:01:21 -0700 (MST) Received: from cr185582a (h24-83-31-41.vc.shawcable.net [24.83.31.41]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with SMTP id <0H4P00JAERY8AR@l-daemon>; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 16:01:21 -0700 (MST) From: Macdonald Stainsby To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu, Rad Green , Leninist International Message-id: <012301c27ed7$cfbaf600$291f5318@vc.shawcable.net> MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4522.1200 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Zimbabwe: One Farmer, One Farm. Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:14:48 -0800 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 15:14:48 -0800 While I certainly cannot attest to how accurate the whole of this is, it is obviously a breath of fresh air compared to the bulk of misinformation coming from the imperialist press. Macdonald Zimbabwe: One Farmer, One Farm By Angela Clifford Irish Political Review, Sept 2002 The Irish press in general, with the Irish Times in the lead, continues to give a bad press to the efforts of the native population of Zimbabwe, to redress the robbing of their land by fair means and foul over the fast 100 years. One might have expected the Irish press to see the parallels with the situation of Ireland, where communal Gaelic land tenure was forcibly superseded by incoming settlers. It took hundreds of years of land war for the native Irish to get back the land though the tribal form of ownership in common is long forgotten, with the Norman type of individual ownership taken for granted. Possibly the customary forms of land ownership are not so obsolete in Zimbabwe and that is the reason for the vicious propaganda campaign aimed at styming the reform movement which Britain has promoted around the European Union. Like the Whites in Zimbabwe, the incoming settlers brought their 'law' to Ireland with them, which legalised their robbery. That law, too, had to displace what was already in place. When journalists try and condemn by media those in Zimbabwe who fight for what is rightfully theirs, the law they apply is not the customary law of Zimbabwe, but the alien law of the Imperialists. Mugabe and the Zimbabwe independence movement had to promise to make no changes in the inherited forms for ten years, because they like the Irish failed to win an outright military victory against their overlords. Those ten years have been up for quite a while, but it is no easy thing to reverse social facts on the ground. Propaganda What 'the West' fears is that the land revolution in Zimbabwe will succeed and will spread to dispossess white colonists in other former British colonies. So, in the propaganda war to discredit the revolutionaries, any story however disgraceful, will do. Daughters Watch As Mugabe Henchmen Behead Mother. This tale by Basildon Peta picked up a Guardian 'report' and featured in the Independent News Service (London) and was carried in the Irish Independent on 24th April. The story starts: "A 53 year old woman was beheaded in front of two of her daughters, aged 10 and 17, by supporters of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe because of suspected opposition sympathies... by 20 ruling party militants outside her hut in Magunje, north western Zimbabwe... in the most brutal political killing in almost two years of poll related violence. She was killed because she was the mother of a Movement for Democratic change youth activist.. "etc. etc. The English Independent carried the story on the same day. The 'report' was one small part of a propaganda offensive intended to launch the opposition into power in a coup like way and to generate international withdrawal of recognition to the elected Government of Zimbabwe. Undoubtedly this campaign succeeded in getting further European Union and Commonwealth sanctions against the country. Naturally the Zimbabwean Government were concerned at this attempt to discredit the election campaign of President Mugabe. It arrested an American journalist on The Guardian (London), Andrew Meldrum, and charged him with "abusing journalistic privilege and publishing false news". That arrest was reported with some outrage in the Independent on 2nd May, which complained, 'He is the seventh independent journalist to have been arrested under the Access to Information and Privacy Act passed shortly after Robert Mugabe won a new term in the presidential election in March, which according to most international observers was rigged". This was during the period when surrounding Black Governments were being pressurised by Britain to overturn the Mugabe election result. An Irish Times report takes up the story on 16th July, complaining that, though Mr. Meldrum was acquitted on the charge of spreading false news, he was being expelled from the country. After all, hadn't the Guardian published a retraction. And the source of the tale, the Daily News (Zimbabwe) had also retracted, when the story had been disproved. The Foreign Correspondents Association of Southern Africa strongly condemned the Expulsion Order. Having been caught out in barefaced lying, the matter is simply brushed aside. But propaganda of that kind could have led to a war in Southern Africa, if surrounding countries had allowed themselves to be misled by 'Western' pressure. And we can he sure that in Britain and Ireland it is the black propaganda which has lasted in popular memory and not the correction. Indeed, 1 didn't even see a correction in the Irish Independent. Another example of the one sided, pro settler reporting of the Zimbabwean land question, appeared in the Irish Times on 12th August. This personalised report from the Bulawayo based Declan Walsh, buried the essential piece of news which should have been the main point of the story. COMPROMISE It seems that, under the slogan of One Farmer, One Farm, Zanu-PF is now offering the settlers a deal whereby they can retain ownership of 400 hectares of land (about 988 English acres), if they give up their claims on the rest of the land to which they have 'legal' title. In a country where "commercial farmers" (as the usurping white settlers like to call themselves) commonly own huge latifundia of many thousands of acres of the best land, compromise offers such as this are regarded as derisory. The group, Justice For Agriculture, has urged rejection of this offer. But this offer is a very fair deal indeed and far more than the interlopers have a right to and the Imperial media, including the Irish Times, should be urging acceptance. Early on in the propaganda war over the land, the Commercial Farmers' Union realised that the way to maximise international pressure on the Government of Zimbabwe was to gain some black allies and find some blacks who were suffering in the land war, who could be featured by their allies in the media. What was important was to cloud the essential settler- native issue, with its history of oppressive white racism. Morgan Tsvangirai of the Zimbabwean Trade Union movement was flattered and courted to join the settler side (though he is not much good as an asset since involvement in a plot to assassinate Mugabe). And some black towns folk who have suffered from the devaluation of the local currency by the financial markets in a move to punish Mugabe have been seduced into voting for the neo-colonial coalition. The privations of black farm workers on white farms resulting from the Land war have been regularly featured and this fits in with the general Imperial tactic of boasting of the numbers of 'jobs' created in various backward parts of the world. What no one seems to realise, however, is that, while the people retained the land on a tribal basis, they had no need of jobs, nor of economic migration. They had their own subsistence and their own satisfying culture and money was irrelevant. The solution to the plight of the black workers on the settler farms is for them to return to their own areas and be given the means of subsistence there. It is certainly doing them no favour to facilitate their further employment by settlers for derisory wages in a process which destroys their lifestyle and accustoms them to the consumer good, market culture of 'the West'. Similarly, Imperial interference in the former colonies is often justified by emphasising the low per capita incomes these countries have. But, again, such figures are meaningless in pre-capitalist societies, particularly in the countryside. Unfortunately the programme of the do-gooders in Ireland and Britain amounts to helping such countries to become capitalist to raise their per capita income. But the price for 'civilisation' of this kind-loss of a way of life is simply not worth paying. CRONIES A common complaint in the Irish and British media, which is made to rubbish the Land War, is that "cronies" of President Mugabe are amongst those who get prime pieces of the white owned real estate, once it is restored to native hands. No doubt there is some truth in this assertion. However, since when have the dispossessed been prevented from organising themselves to disinherit their oppressors? Just as the disenfranchised get the vote by agitating, and the homeless get homes by organising, so the landless get land by political action. A whole generation of Irish volunteers, after they had fought to put out the British, took over the rule of their country. They were elected to positions and politicians appointed those who had elected them to various positions of influence and made sure that what jobs were going went to their sympathisers. Was that 'corruption'? No doubt some will claim it was. In my book it is a natural and necessary part of the revolution by which the people took back their country. And even if it were simply a matter of the Zimbabwean leaders taking land for themselves, so what? If white ownership of the land is fundamentally illegitimate, at least justice is half done if the land passes into native hands. It will be up to the next generation of Zimbabweans to remedy any injustices they perceive amongst their own. The fact, however, is that this element of the land revolution is a very small part of the whole. Most of what is being done aims to give the means of self support to those deprived of it by white settlement. FAMINE Another way of discrediting the land revolution is to blame the food shortages in Zimbabwe and other parts of Southern Africa on the unrest. The facts are otherwise. Some 25% of the small, black farmed land the bits not fertile enough for the kith and kin originating in Britain and Ireland to steal grows three quarters of the food eaten by Zimbabwe blacks. The 'commercial' farms concentrate on export crops which keep Zimbabwe dependent on the vagaries of the world market. Mugabe has targeted 2,900 farmers, about two third of the total of white farmers. George Monbiot who has studied the situation himself in Africa and the author of a book on the country confirms this is so/ He says: "...the 4,500 white farmers there own two thirds of the best land, many of them grow not food but tobacco. Seventy percent of the nation's maize its primary staple crop is grown by black peasant farmers hacking a living from the marginal lands they were left by the whites. "...Every year, some tens of millions of peasant farmers [all over the world] are forced to leave their land, with devastating consequences for food security. ..."Ten years ago, 1 investigated the expropriations being funded and organised in Africa by another member of the Commonwealth. Canada had paid for the ploughing and planting with wheat of the Basotu Plains in Tanzania. "Wheat was eaten in that country only by the rich, but by planting that crop, rather than maize or beans or cassava, Canada could secure contracts for its chemical and machinery companies, which were world leaders in wheat technology. "The scheme required the dispossession of the 40,000 members of the Barabaig tribe. Those who tried to return to their lands were beaten by the project's workers, imprisoned and tortured with electric shocks. The women were gang raped. "For the first time in a century, the Barabaig were malnourished. When 1 raised these issues with one of the people running the project, she told me: "] won't shed a tear for anybody ifit means development. " The rich world's press took much the same attitude: only the Guardian carried the story." After referring to Andhra Pradesh (India), where a UK funded scheme is dispossessing 20 million people, Monbiot continues: 'These are dark skinned people being expelled by whites, rather than whites being expelled by black people. They are, as such, assuming their rightful place, as invisible obstacles to the rich world\s projects. Mugabe is a monstrosity because he has usurped the natural order. "Throughout the coverage of Zimbabwe there is an undercurrent of racism... Readers are led to conclude... the only people who know how to run Africa are the whites. "But, through the IMF, the World Bank and the bilateral aid programmes, with their extraordinary conditions, the whites do run Africa, and a right hash they are making of it." "...the rich world has... been using 'food aid as a political weapon'. The United States has just succeeded in forcing Zimbabwe and Zambia, both suffering from the southern African famine, to accept GM maize as food relief. "Both nations had fiercely resisted GM crops, partly because they feared that the technology would grant multinational companies control over the food chain..." Monbiot adds that Malawi was also forced to take GM maize after being instructed by the IMF and EU to privatise their food reserves which led to their being sold off. These bodies also are forcing African countries to open their markets to imports from abroad, including cheap food imports which distort the home market. He concludes: 'Land distribution is the key determinant of food security. Small farms are up to 10 times as productive as large ones... Small farmers are more likely to supply local people with staple crops than western supermarkets with mangetout. 'The governments of the rich world don't like land reform. It requires state intervention, which offends the god of free markets, and it hurts big farmers and the companies that supply them..." (13th August 2002) Unfortunately, Monbiot - along with a lot of other well meaning people on the Left feels obliged to intersperse his criticism of the policies of 'Western' Governments with criticisms of Mugabe. Perhaps he has to do that to get a hearing in the Guardian which is, after all, the paper of Manchester Capitalism, in origin at least. But others not so constrained should have no truck with any sort of equivalence between the Imperialist 'West' and those who strike out, however crudely, for some justice. -- Angela Clifford PS by Editor: BBC Radio5Live is basically a Sports channel. With large chunks of time to fill in the mornings, it runs lengthy phone ins on affairs of the moment, and things get said in these that are never beard on the more structured media. On 20th August Roy Bennett, a Zimbabwe MP who was said to be "on the run " from the Mugabe Government, had Radio 5 given over to him for an hour. (It turned out he was speaking from Britain.) He said he was a fourth generation white in Zimbabwe. He declared that neither land nor race was an issue in the present conflict, because all racists had left Zimbabwe in 1980, and the commercial farmers were in favour of land reform, provided it was done right. The only issue was democracy. He was asked why South Africa did not intervene in support of democracy, and he said it was because the African National Congress would lose power in a properly democratic election in South Africa. As an example of the methods of intimidation used by the Mugabe regime, he said that the war veterans had held a political rally on his farm and when they left they took his Personnel Relations Officer and nine of his security guards with them. So here was a " farmer" with a PRO for handling relations with his workers and more than 9 security guards. Later on, to show how damaging interference with "commercial farming " was, he said, "I have 1,500 workers that work with me" and their livelihood was being endangered. And he said he was elected by blacks. Another "commercial farmer" came on the radio a couple of weeks later, to explain how well the black workers were treated. He had only 500 workers -- a small farmer! -- but the employment he gave supported a community of about three times that number. And everything that community needed was supplied to it through the farm. Multiplying Roy Bennett's workforce by three gives a community of close to 5,000 that was economically dependent on his will. There was a time when Trade Unions had to campaign against capitalists who aspired to make their workers absolutely dependent on them by means of company unions, company housing, company shops, company welfare etc. Is that how the Cecil Rhodes settlement in Zimbabwe should be described? Or is it just feudalism? From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 18:21:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 18:21:33 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186L4X-0002Y2-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 18:21:33 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186L4L-0004NG-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 18:21:21 -0700 Received: from mesa.acns.colostate.edu ([129.82.100.130]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186L3w-0004N7-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 18:20:56 -0700 Received: from holly.ColoState.EDU (holly.acns.colostate.edu [129.82.100.76]) by mesa.acns.ColoState.EDU (AIX4.3/8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id SAA43020 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 18:20:56 -0700 Received: from webmail.colostate.edu (csunts4.acns.colostate.edu [129.82.100.135]) by holly.ColoState.EDU (AIX4.3/8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id SAA196196 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 18:20:54 -0700 X-WebMail-UserID: sholden@holly.colostate.edu From: steve To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-EXP32-SerialNo: 00003291, 00003429, 00003578 Subject: RE: [A-List] Russia: Chechen hacker alert Message-ID: <3DBDEF9E@webmail.colostate.edu> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="ISO-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Mailer: WebMail (Hydra) SMTP v3.61 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 18:20:54 -0700 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 18:20:54 -0700 >===== Original Message From a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu ===== >The timing of this news release might be considered as opportune... > <..> >CHECHEN rebels have recruited an expert computer hacker "cyber mercenary" to >attack the west's 10 major banks, according to the FSB, Russia's state >security service and the successor of the KGB. > >The assault on financial institutions takes the form of e-mails offering >commercial services which also contain "Trojan horse" software enabling the >hacker to gain access to accounts. > >The technique is known as "back orifice" and first emerged in 1998. If that is what their "expert" is coming up with, banks are quite safe. It's essentially an oxymoron to use expert with backorifice in the same sentence which suggests this article is patently false. ------- It's a new model for the concentration camp, the camp has been built by the inmates themselves, and the inmates are the guards, and they have this pride in this thing they've built--they've built their own prison--and so they're both guards and prisoners. They no longer have the capacity to leave the prison they've made or even to see it as a prison. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 21:09:40 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 21:09:40 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186NhE-0003Gx-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 21:09:40 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Ngz-0005cg-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 21:09:25 -0700 Received: from mta6.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.240]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Nfr-0005al-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 21:08:15 -0700 Received: from sabri ([66.124.233.210]) by mta6.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H4Q007Q765PKU@mta6.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 20:08:14 -0800 (PST) From: Sabri Oncu To: PEN-L , ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Some data on telecoms Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 20:07:35 -0800 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 20:07:35 -0800 I am not sure what exactly this author's point is. But there are some facts in this article that may be useful. For the archives, Sabri +++++++++++++ >From Class Acts to Penny Stocks Commentary. David Pauly is a columnist for Bloomberg News. His opinions are his own. By David Pauly New York, Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Lucent Technologies Inc. should have a secure spot in corporate history as heir to Western Electric, which made telephones that lasted, and as owner of the vaunted Bell Laboratories. Same for Corning Inc., inventor and biggest producer of fiber- optic cable, which speeds information around the world. Yet Lucent and Corning are now part of an ignominious bunch of companies that have lost virtually all of their stock market value. Lucent shares that traded at $64.69 about three years ago were worth 96 cents at Friday's close. Corning shares, worth $113.33 a bit more than two years ago, closed at $1.97. Lucent and Corning are now penny stocks, wallowing in the depths with unknown companies peddled by bucket shops. Lucent is resorting to a reverse split to raise the price of its shares -- and prevent them from being thrown off the New York Stock Exchange. They are not alone in their misery. Nortel Networks Corp., a competitor of Lucent that once accounted for about one-third of the value of all stocks on the Toronto Stock Exchange, has plummeted too. In mid-2000, its shares traded at $89; Friday they were worth $1.14 apiece. Sun Microsystems Inc. deserves our respect as a maker of server computers for the Internet, as the inventor of the Java software language and as a constant baiter of Microsoft Corp. Still, its stock has fallen to $2.88 from $64.66 about two years ago. Ice Cold EMC Corp., whose refrigerator-size computers mark it as the leader in data storage, has seen its shares plummet 95 percent to $5.42 in about two years. These companies weren't victimized by fraudulent accounting or looting by executives. Rather, they were savaged by recession, war jitters and their own overexuberant expectations for the telecommunications and computer markets. Investors might think the shares of such companies are good buys -- that the market was as crazy going down as it was going up -- but stocks reduced to cents per share have trouble coming back. The telecommunications industry is all red ink and pink slips. Sun's and EMC's sales began falling in mid-2001, and no rally is apparent. Better Bets? Bargain hunters might be more tempted by other respectable companies whose shares have dropped 75 percent or so from their peaks and are now trading at just below or above the $10 level. This group of the fallen -- nickel stocks maybe? -- includes Cisco Systems Inc., the once-sure-thing assembler of computer network equipment; Charles Schwab Corp., proven to be an adaptable financial services company; Oracle Corp., the producer of computer software for managing information; and Motorola Inc. and Nokia Oyj, both leading makers of cellular phones. Cisco's shares closed at $11.78 Friday, down 86 percent from their March 2000 high. Some companies may be sorry they split their stocks so eagerly when the market was bubbling. If Oracle, for instance, had foregone its three most recent splits, its stock would have been worth $61.56 Friday rather than $10.26. Oracle shares still would've fallen 78 percent from their peak, of course. Old-Timers Investors might be intrigued to find a company like Ford Motor Co. on the list of nickel stocks at $8.72. Here's a bedrock of the U.S. economy; certainly, it will rebound. Well, history is littered with once-solid companies that failed or became whispers: American Leather, Swift & Co., Woolworth, the Pennsylvania Railroad. Old-timers at Bell Labs and Corning may still realize something on their investments -- or their companies may be destined to live in infamy as case histories for MBAs. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 21:49:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 21:49:33 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186OJp-0003Qm-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 21:49:33 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186OJc-0005qK-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 21:49:20 -0700 Received: from cpimssmtpu04.email.msn.com ([207.46.181.80]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186OIt-0005o4-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 21:48:35 -0700 Received: from igrushkii ([12.64.186.172]) by cpimssmtpu04.email.msn.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.4905); Mon, 28 Oct 2002 20:46:42 -0800 Message-ID: <005e01c27f06$3ef26700$0100a8c0@igrushkii> From: "Annewilliamson" To: References: <3DBDEF9E@webmail.colostate.edu> Subject: Re: [A-List] Russia: Chechen hacker alert MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4807.1700 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4807.1700 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 04:46:43.0050 (UTC) FILETIME=[2D8C5CA0:01C27F06] Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Reply-To: "Annewilliamson" List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:47:09 -0500 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:47:09 -0500 Steve: May I ask the origin of the "prison-guards" quote appended to the end of your on-target post? Thanks, -A. ----- Original Message ----- From: "steve" To: Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:20 PM Subject: RE: [A-List] Russia: Chechen hacker alert > >===== Original Message From a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu ===== > >The timing of this news release might be considered as opportune... > > > <..> > >CHECHEN rebels have recruited an expert computer hacker "cyber mercenary" to > >attack the west's 10 major banks, according to the FSB, Russia's state > >security service and the successor of the KGB. > > > >The assault on financial institutions takes the form of e-mails offering > >commercial services which also contain "Trojan horse" software enabling the > >hacker to gain access to accounts. > > > >The technique is known as "back orifice" and first emerged in 1998. > > > > > If that is what their "expert" is coming up with, banks are quite safe. It's > essentially an oxymoron to use expert with backorifice in the same sentence > which suggests this article is patently false. > > ------- > It's a new model for the concentration camp, the camp has been > built by the inmates themselves, and the inmates are the guards, > and they have this pride in this thing they've built--they've > built their own prison--and so they're both guards and prisoners. > They no longer have the capacity to leave the prison they've > made or even to see it as a prison. > > > From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 23:43:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:43:38 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Q6E-0003sv-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:43:38 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Q5x-0006fb-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:43:21 -0700 Received: from mta5.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.241]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Q4g-0006fO-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:42:02 -0700 Received: from sabri ([66.124.233.210]) by mta5.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H4Q00KINDA155@mta5.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 22:42:01 -0800 (PST) From: Sabri Oncu To: PEN-L , ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Argentina: Hebe at Zanon Factory Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 22:41:22 -0800 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 22:41:22 -0800 Forwarded from the PGA list. Sabri +++++++++++++++ The following are excerpts from the speach Hebe de Bonifini, leaders of the organization Mothers of Plaza de Mayo gave on October 24,2002: "Companeros, you no doubt know that last week I was at the Zanon factory. I went in representation of the Mothers, of our University, and the Plaza itself which the Mothers represent. It was an incredible day....A year and a half ago the companeros took over the factory. They were for some time outside, in tents, and had nothing to eat. But thanks to a group of men and women that is called "Sainuco" who work in the jail, the ordinary prisoners gave up half of their food. The strikers had nothing to eat and did not want to give up their tents where they were. I was surprised when I entered the factory because it is a factory of 74 thousand cubic meters, more than four blocks long. It is now working at least 20% of capacity creating new ceramics. These have to be watched over because the trade union bureacrats want to take it away to give to the government so that the government sells it for nothing to the Chileans, and then the government will say its just losing money. Nevertheless, with 20% functioning, it is making a profit. This shows the bosses really just want to throw the workers in the street. There are more than 200 companeros working and they have given work to 10 more unemployed workers. Everybody earns the same: 800 pesos (about $230 dollars) But the unemplyed said "we prefer to earn 400 peosos apice and then we can create 10 more jobs." Now there is 20 unemployed earning 400 pesos each. They eat there. They have a spectacular dining room, clean, a well kept, irrigated garden. We are seeing a demonstration of a new form of governing, a new form of showing we don't need the bosses, that we don't need the powerful, that we are capable of many more things if we believe we can do them.... We believe a solidarity commission is very important with these companeros, but it shouldn't be tied to the political parties: we have to be the most independent possible: The parties can come but they cannot take over.... On another issue, the students have taken over the Rectory of the University. They have 5 points which they are not going to negotiate. They want to impose a negotiating commission on them, but the kids do not want it. The Mothers are marching at 8PM to the demonstration... There are a lot of things happening: the Peoples Assemblies, the piquetero unemployed movement.... We tried to get into the Court today, but they didn't want to let us in. I pushed a policeman against the wall and all the Mothers got in....The police and everybody there couldn't believe that we had such strength to get in.... Finally they let me into courtroom. But they told me I had to take off the handkerchief that I have worn for 25 years. Then a judge and a prosecutro told me that no one can go into a courtroom wearing a political symbol. I told him to stick it up his ass...The handkerchief identifies us, that handkerchief stregthens us, it shows our struggle of 25 years still bothers the powerful. If it bothers the judges, and bothers the prosecutors, and bothers the politicians and the cops, it bothers them all. It it bothers them, it serves a function..... (translated by Earl Gilman) From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 23:55:32 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:55:32 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186QHk-0003xR-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:55:32 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186QHZ-0006jz-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:55:21 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186QGb-0006jq-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:54:21 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9T6sGE24906 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:54:16 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9T6sFA24844 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:54:15 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:56:04 +0200 Message-ID: <005501c27f17$ce0c8ea0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: References: <012301c27ed7$cfbaf600$291f5318@vc.shawcable.net> Subject: Re: [A-List] Zimbabwe: One Farmer, One Farm. X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 06:56:04.0358 (UTC) FILETIME=[3FA5FA60:01C27F18] Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:52:53 +0200 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:52:53 +0200 Zimbabwe: One Farmer, One Farm By Angela Clifford Irish Political Review, Sept 2002 ------ Thanks Macdonald for this. While it would be preferable if those closer to the action were able to provide us with information on events there, for the time being we must make do with whatever reports come our way and try to make sense, applying especial care with regard to the racist undertone of many articles. Michael From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 23:57:40 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:57:40 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186QJn-0003xg-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:57:39 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186QJV-0006nr-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:57:21 -0700 Received: from granger.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.148]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18695E-0006pz-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 05:33:28 -0700 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by granger.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 186948-0006SV-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:32:21 -0500 Message-ID: <004401c27e7e$0dd77bc0$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0041_01C27E54.1FB36B80" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Subject: [A-List] News from Colombia Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:32:06 -0500 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:32:06 -0500 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0041_01C27E54.1FB36B80 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Ferocious persecution of Colombian oil workers OPEN LETTER 27.10.2002 (By Hernando Hernandez, USO) As a consequence of our = nationalist position in defence of oil as the driving force behind = national development, the Colombian State has unleashed a ferocious = persecution of the Oil Workers Union (USO).=20 It was our struggle that gave birth to the state oil company. ECOPETROL. Today we are still fighting to prevent the privatisation of this = company, which belongs to all Colombians. This persecution grew worse = with the arrival of the neoliberal government of=20 Alvaro Uribe, slave to the multinationals, which, piece by piece, is = dismatling the political, labour and fundamental rights that were = achieved through the dignity and sacrifice of workers during their = history of struggle.=20 In the last 14 years, around a hundred valient USO leaders and activists = have been assassinated by State security forces and paramilitary groups; = two have been detained and disappeared; ten have been kidnapped; more = than two hundred have suffered the rigours of displacement from their = places of work so as not to meet the same fate as those before them; and = several live in exile abroad.=20 31 affiliates have been imprisoned for the crimes of rebellion, = terrorism, kidnapping, homicide and damage to property, among other = things. In spite of the bad intentions and manipulation of the Public = Prosecutor's Office and the State security bodies, the courts passed a = verdict of not guilty in favour of our USO comrades.=20 Currently, Ramon Rangel G, Alonso Martines, Luis E Viana and Jairo = Calderon are being deprived of their freedom, charged with rebellion by = the Public Prosecutor before a judge in Barrancabermeja.=20 The persecution against USO has reached such a point that our lawyers = have also been the victims of threats, harassment and assassination. = Doctor Eduardo Umana Mendoza was assassinated by hitmen in May 1998 when = he was defending Pedro Chaparro and Cesar Carrillo, among others.=20 My family has been a victim of this outrageous persecution, orchestrated = in particular by the DAS (secret police) and the 5th Brigade, who = through various forms of intelligence have made statements designed to = link us with members of the insurgency.=20 My father, Humberto Hernandez Gavanzo, who also belonged to the USO, the = National Association of Campesino Land Users (ANUC) and was a member of = the Regional Committee for Human Rights in Barrancabermeja, was = assassinated on 19 March 1991. My brothers, Hector and Humberto, were = criminally charged and investigated by the Public Prosecutor for = rebellion.=20 As if all that were not enough, in recent months the security bodies = have devoted themselves to fabricating evidence and paying witnesses in = order to try my widowed mother, Elvia Pardo, my brother Fabio Hernandez = and myself, for rebellion.=20 Because of my trade union activities, I have been the victim during the = last 15 years of attacks, trade union persecution and threats on my life = and those of my family.=20 Convinced of my innocence, yesterday (23 October) I made a statement to = a lawyer acting for the National Centre for Human Rights, certain that = there is no evidence against me except what state security bodies have = been able to fabricate. As there was no evidence against me and I = demonstrated that all the accusations were false, the Public = Prosecutor's Office deferred my trial and decided not to detain me for = the moment.=20 >From the date mentioned, the Public Prosecutor has ten days to resolve = my legal situation which he can do in one of two ways: archive the case = or take security measures, in=20 which case I would be detained.=20 My call continues to be for unity, organisation and struggle in the = defence of the interests of the people, of ECOPETROL, our convention and = the USO, and if a strike is necessary to defend this, we will decide to = organise one and carry it out.=20 I want to thank all of you, my trade union organisation and other trade = unions, for your solidarity on the day of my statement.=20 NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE=20 HERNANDO HERNANDEZ=20 Secretary for International Relations=20 FREEDOM FOR OUR UNJUSTLY IMPRISONED COMRADES=20 LONG LIVE THE OIL WORKERS' UNION, THE ORGANISATION THAT MADE POSSIBLE = THE=20 CREATION OF ECOPETROL FOR THE GOOD OF ALL COLOMBIANS AND WHICH WE WILL=20 CONTINUE TO DEFEND=20 OUR RESPONSE TO LABOUR, PENSION AND TAX REFORM IS UNITY, ORGANISATION = AND=20 STRUGGLE=20 DOWN WITH URIBE VELEZ'S ANTI-WORKER REFORMS (Translated by Liz Atherton, Colombia Peace Association) [This next one needs more fact-checking. It is interesting, but = references to "Marine jungle troops" make me skeptical. Marines are = Marines. There is no special "jungle Marine." And the Powell Doctrine, = which still holds sway with regard to decisive ground operations against = real opposition, is not consistent with putting untested Marines in = combat against a veteran combat force on its own turf, in support of a = corrupt and incompetent foreign army, without a massive bombing campaign = (a la Afghanistan) in advance. The "left" doesn't have a lot of = resources, so it seems to me that preservation of our credibility is = essential. Using any rumor to beat one's opposition over the head is a = good way to hand the stick to that opposition to beat us. -SG] Marines Ordered into Colombia February 2003 is Target Date By Peter Gorman Special to the Narco News Bulletin October 25, 2002 IQUITOS, PER=DA-Two battalions of US Marine Jungle Expeditionary = Forces have recently received deployment orders for insertion into = Colombia this coming February, 2003.=20 According to reliable sources, the battalions, which with support = will total roughly 1,100 men, will rotate in and out of southern = Colombia, with orders to eliminate all high officers of the FARC = (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), scattering those who escape to = the remote corners of the Amazon. The FARC hierarchy has been the = subject of intensive US intelligence scrutiny for several years. The = offensive will mean that the US is fighting wars on three fronts = simultaneously: Afghanistan, Iraq and Colombia.=20 While this reporter did not see a battle plan, according to our = sources the offensive will be led by the Colombian military, which will = push the FARC south toward the waiting Marines. A similar but much = smaller operation involving former US-SEALS was called off at the last = minute two years ago. The Bush Administration is supposedly prepared to = take the heat for as many innocent Indigenous peoples and Colombian = campesinos - a number that could reach the thousands - as might be = killed in the offensive.=20 The presence of US troops in battle in Colombia will be in direct = contravention of the Congressional parameters of both Clinton's Plan = Colombia and Bush's expanded Andean Initiative. But with the propaganda = that has been churned out in the US media during the past year regarding = terrorism-including Assistant Secretary of State Rand Beers' claim that = the FARC were training with Al Qaida (a statement he has recently and = quietly rescinded) (see Narco News, September 10, 2002, "Beers = 'Corrects' Falsehood Under Oath in DynCorp Case")-the administration = feels the American public's outrage will be controllable.=20 The plan was sealed at a late September lunch between Colombia's = new right wing US puppet president Alvaro Uribe and Bush in Washington. = The orders for the insertion were cut shortly afterwards.=20 The luncheon took place at the tail end of a UNITAS exercise = between US Marine Expeditionary Forces and the Peruvian military, during = which, for the first time ever, 600 Marines aboard the USS Portland, = made their way up the international waters of the Amazon river to = Peruvian territory on the Nanay river just outside of Iquitos.=20 Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo denied that the US presence = indicated any future involvement of US troops on Peruvian soil, or the = presence of a US base in Peru-which is not permissible under Peruvian = law unless specifically authorized by the Peruvian Congress. But = insiders saw the arrival of the USS Portland as a message to both the = FARC and Peru. To the FARC the message was that the US can show up any = time and cut off their southern river escape routes to Brazil, Peru and = Ecuador in the face of a Colombian military offensive push to the south. = To the Peruvians, and to Toledo personally, the arrival of the Portland = with 600 Marine jungle troops was a reminder that he had crossed the = line when he abruptly cancelled a joint Peruvian-US military training = exercise called New Horizons in April, after a year of planning and less = than a month before it was set to begin.=20 Planning for the Portland's arrival on the Nanay river as part of = the UNITAS exercise began at almost the same time Toledo cancelled the = New Horizons program.=20 The US troops will probably operate out of both the US base at = Manta on the coast of Ecuador as well as at a base built deep in the = Peruvian jungle near the Putumayo river-Peru's border with Colombia-in = 1998-1999. That secret base was intended for joint use by both Peru and = the US in the event of a Colombian military offensive that would push = the FARC south to the Putumayo, but on its completion, then-president = Alberto Fujimori ordered the US to leave it. That slap in the face of = the US by the US-bought-and-paid-for Fujimori led directly to the coup = arranged by the US which forced him into exile.=20 According to our sources, the administration will try to keep the = presence of the Marines in Colombia secret for as long as possible, = claiming casualties to be the result of training exercises or legal = assistance to the Colombian military. But in the event that the American = public discovers that we are actively engaging in an offensive war, the = administration is said to be prepared to deal with that as it comes.=20 Bush has allegedly become a zealot in his drive to eliminate = terrorism worldwide, and sees the FARC in that light. Reliable sources = say that to ensure that the rest of the US sees them similarly, US = government operatives at work in Colombia have been responsible for many = of the bombings that have been laid at the feet of the FARC in recent = months.=20 It is the hope of this reporter that the release of this = information stops the operation before it begins and American men and = women are put in a position where they will not only shed the blood of = the peoples of Colombia, but will likely see their own shed as well.=20 No zealotry, no quest for Colombia's oil riches, no Andean trade = pact or any other excuse can justify our deepening involvement in the = Colombian war.=20 ********************************** =20 ------=_NextPart_000_0041_01C27E54.1FB36B80 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Ferocious persecution of Colombian oil = workers

OPEN=20 LETTER

27.10.2002 = (By Hernando=20 Hernandez, USO) As a consequence of our nationalist position in = defence of=20 oil as the driving force behind national development, the Colombian = State has=20 unleashed a ferocious persecution of the Oil Workers Union (USO).=20

It was our = struggle that=20 gave birth to the state oil company. ECOPETROL.

Today we are = still=20 fighting to prevent the privatisation of this company, which belongs to = all=20 Colombians. This persecution grew worse with the arrival of the = neoliberal=20 government of
Alvaro Uribe, slave to the multinationals, which, = piece by=20 piece, is dismatling the political, labour and fundamental rights that = were=20 achieved through the dignity and sacrifice of workers during their = history of=20 struggle.

In the last 14 = years,=20 around a hundred valient USO leaders and activists have been = assassinated by=20 State security forces and paramilitary groups; two have been detained = and=20 disappeared; ten have been kidnapped; more than two hundred have = suffered the=20 rigours of displacement from their places of work so as not to meet the = same=20 fate as those before them; and several live in exile abroad. =

31 affiliates = have been=20 imprisoned for the crimes of rebellion, terrorism, kidnapping, homicide = and=20 damage to property, among other things. In spite of the bad intentions = and=20 manipulation of the Public Prosecutor's Office and the State security = bodies,=20 the courts passed a verdict of not guilty in favour of our USO comrades. =

Currently, Ramon = Rangel G,=20 Alonso Martines, Luis E Viana and Jairo Calderon are being deprived of = their=20 freedom, charged with rebellion by the Public Prosecutor before a judge = in=20 Barrancabermeja.

The persecution = against=20 USO has reached such a point that our lawyers have also been the victims = of=20 threats, harassment and assassination. Doctor Eduardo Umana Mendoza was=20 assassinated by hitmen in May 1998 when he was defending Pedro Chaparro = and=20 Cesar Carrillo, among others.

My family has = been a=20 victim of this outrageous persecution, orchestrated in particular by the = DAS=20 (secret police) and the 5th Brigade, who through various forms of = intelligence=20 have made statements designed to link us with members of the insurgency. =

My father, = Humberto=20 Hernandez Gavanzo, who also belonged to the USO, the National = Association of=20 Campesino Land Users (ANUC) and was a member of the Regional Committee = for Human=20 Rights in Barrancabermeja, was assassinated on 19 March 1991. My = brothers,=20 Hector and Humberto, were criminally charged and investigated by the = Public=20 Prosecutor for rebellion.

As if all that = were not=20 enough, in recent months the security bodies have devoted themselves to=20 fabricating evidence and paying witnesses in order to try my widowed = mother,=20 Elvia Pardo, my brother Fabio Hernandez and myself, for rebellion.=20

Because of my = trade union=20 activities, I have been the victim during the last 15 years of attacks, = trade=20 union persecution and threats on my life and those of my family. =

Convinced of my = innocence,=20 yesterday (23 October) I made a statement to a lawyer acting for the = National=20 Centre for Human Rights, certain that there is no evidence against me = except=20 what state security bodies have been able to fabricate. As there was no = evidence=20 against me and I demonstrated that all the accusations were false, the = Public=20 Prosecutor's Office deferred my trial and decided not to detain me for = the=20 moment.

From the date = mentioned,=20 the Public Prosecutor has ten days to resolve my legal situation which = he can do=20 in one of two ways: archive the case or take security measures, in =
which=20 case I would be detained.

My call = continues to be=20 for unity, organisation and struggle in the defence of the interests of = the=20 people, of ECOPETROL, our convention and the USO, and if a strike is = necessary=20 to defend this, we will decide to organise one and carry it out. =

I want to thank = all of=20 you, my trade union organisation and other trade unions, for your = solidarity on=20 the day of my statement.

NATIONAL = EXECUTIVE=20 COMMITTEE
HERNANDO HERNANDEZ
Secretary for International = Relations=20

FREEDOM FOR OUR = UNJUSTLY=20 IMPRISONED COMRADES

LONG LIVE THE = OIL WORKERS'=20 UNION, THE ORGANISATION THAT MADE POSSIBLE THE
CREATION OF ECOPETROL = FOR THE=20 GOOD OF ALL COLOMBIANS AND WHICH WE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEFEND =

OUR RESPONSE TO = LABOUR,=20 PENSION AND TAX REFORM IS UNITY, ORGANISATION AND
STRUGGLE =

DOWN WITH URIBE = VELEZ'S=20 ANTI-WORKER REFORMS
(Translated by Liz = Atherton,=20 Colombia Peace Association)

[This next = one needs more=20 fact-checking.  It is interesting, but references to "Marine jungle = troops"=20 make me skeptical.  Marines are Marines.  There is no special = "jungle=20 Marine."  And the Powell Doctrine, which still holds sway with = regard to=20 decisive ground operations against real opposition, is not consistent = with=20 putting untested Marines in combat against a veteran combat force = on its=20 own turf, in support of a corrupt and incompetent foreign army, without = a=20 massive bombing campaign (a la Afghanistan) in advance. The "left" = doesn't have=20 a lot of resources, so it seems to me that preservation of our = credibility is=20 essential.  Using any rumor to beat one's opposition over the head = is a=20 good way to hand the stick to that opposition to beat us. = -SG]

Marines Ordered into Colombia


February 2003 is Target Date


By Peter Gorman
Special to the=20 Narco News Bulletin

October 25, 2002

IQUITOS, PER=DA—Two battalions of = US Marine Jungle=20 Expeditionary Forces have recently received deployment orders for=20 insertion into Colombia this coming February, 2003. =

According to=20 reliable sources, the battalions, which with support will total = roughly=20 1,100 men, will rotate in and out of southern Colombia, with = orders to=20 eliminate all high officers of the FARC (Revolutionary Armed = Forces of=20 Colombia), scattering those who escape to the remote corners of = the=20 Amazon. The FARC hierarchy has been the subject of intensive US=20 intelligence scrutiny for several years. The offensive will mean = that the=20 US is fighting wars on three fronts simultaneously: Afghanistan, = Iraq and=20 Colombia.

While this reporter did not see a battle plan, = according=20 to our sources the offensive will be led by the Colombian = military, which=20 will push the FARC south toward the waiting Marines. A similar but = much=20 smaller operation involving former US-SEALS was=20 called off at the last minute two years ago. The Bush = Administration is=20 supposedly prepared to take the heat for as many innocent = Indigenous=20 peoples and Colombian campesinos — a number that could reach = the thousands=20 — as might be killed in the offensive.

The presence = of US troops=20 in battle in Colombia will be in direct contravention of the = Congressional=20 parameters of both Clinton’s Plan Colombia and Bush’s = expanded Andean=20 Initiative. But with the propaganda that has been churned out in = the US=20 media during the past year regarding terrorism—including = Assistant=20 Secretary of State Rand Beers’ claim that the FARC were = training with Al=20 Qaida (a statement he has recently and quietly rescinded) (see = Narco News,=20 September 10, 2002, “Beers=20 ‘Corrects’ Falsehood Under Oath in DynCorp = Case”)—the administration feels the American = public’s outrage will be=20 controllable.

The plan was sealed at a late September = lunch=20 between Colombia’s new right wing US puppet president Alvaro = Uribe and=20 Bush in Washington. The orders for the insertion were cut shortly=20 afterwards.

The luncheon took place at the tail end of a = UNITAS=20 exercise between US Marine Expeditionary Forces and the Peruvian = military,=20 during which, for the first time ever, 600 Marines aboard the USS=20 Portland, made their way up the international waters of the Amazon = river=20 to Peruvian territory on the Nanay river just outside of Iquitos.=20

Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo denied that the US = presence=20 indicated any future involvement of US troops on Peruvian soil, or = the=20 presence of a US base in Peru—which is not permissible under = Peruvian law=20 unless specifically authorized by the Peruvian Congress. But = insiders saw=20 the arrival of the USS Portland as a message to both the FARC and = Peru. To=20 the FARC the message was that the US can show up any time and cut = off=20 their southern river escape routes to Brazil, Peru and Ecuador in = the face=20 of a Colombian military offensive push to the south. To the = Peruvians, and=20 to Toledo personally, the arrival of the Portland with 600 Marine = jungle=20 troops was a reminder that he had crossed the line when he = abruptly=20 cancelled a joint Peruvian-US military training exercise called = New=20 Horizons in April, after a year of planning and less than a month = before=20 it was set to begin.

Planning for the Portland’s = arrival on the=20 Nanay river as part of the UNITAS exercise began at almost the = same time=20 Toledo cancelled the New Horizons program.

The US troops = will=20 probably operate out of both the US base at Manta on the coast of = Ecuador=20 as well as at a base built deep in the Peruvian jungle near the = Putumayo=20 river—Peru’s border with Colombia—in 1998-1999. = That secret base was=20 intended for joint use by both Peru and the US in the event of a = Colombian=20 military offensive that would push the FARC south to the Putumayo, = but on=20 its completion, then-president Alberto Fujimori ordered the US to = leave=20 it. That slap in the face of the US by the US-bought-and-paid-for = Fujimori=20 led directly to the coup arranged by the US which forced him into = exile.=20

According to our sources, the administration will try to = keep the=20 presence of the Marines in Colombia secret for as long as = possible,=20 claiming casualties to be the result of training exercises or = legal=20 assistance to the Colombian military. But in the event that the = American=20 public discovers that we are actively engaging in an offensive = war, the=20 administration is said to be prepared to deal with that as it = comes.=20

Bush has allegedly become a zealot in his drive to = eliminate=20 terrorism worldwide, and sees the FARC in that light. Reliable = sources say=20 that to ensure that the rest of the US sees them similarly, US = government=20 operatives at work in Colombia have been responsible for many of = the=20 bombings that have been laid at the feet of the FARC in recent = months.=20

It is the hope of this reporter that the release of this=20 information stops the operation before it begins and American men = and=20 women are put in a position where they will not only shed the = blood of the=20 peoples of Colombia, but will likely see their own shed as well.=20

No zealotry, no quest for Colombia’s oil riches, no = Andean trade=20 pact or any other excuse can justify our deepening involvement in = the=20 Colombian war.

**********************************


 

------=_NextPart_000_0041_01C27E54.1FB36B80-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 23:58:01 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:58:01 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186QK9-0003xo-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:58:01 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186QJr-0006oC-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:57:43 -0700 Received: from smtp.maui.net ([209.84.182.149]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186EzL-0001ZQ-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 11:51:47 -0700 Received: from 127.0.0.1 (localhost.localdomain [127.0.0.1]) by dummy.domain.name (Postfix) with SMTP id B694E1B8037; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:55:50 -1000 (HST) Received: from defaultMicheleDriscoll (ip64-75-157-114.dial.maui.net [64.75.157.114]) by smtp.maui.net (Postfix) with SMTP id 49E351B8024; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:55:16 -1000 (HST) Message-ID: <000801c27eb2$812ec680$729d4b40@defaultMicheleDriscoll> From: "Ralph Johansen" To: "Ralph Johansen" MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0005_01C27E5E.A8032840" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 Subject: [A-List] Vietnam - What I remember Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:47:33 -1000 Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:47:33 -1000 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0005_01C27E5E.A8032840 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit "Vietnam: What I remember" from Harper's Magazine. 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fep05-svc.mail.telepac.pt (InterMail vM.5.01.04.13 201-253-122-122-113-20020313) with ESMTP id <20021029000037.BAHN20921.fep05-svc.mail.telepac.pt@jf.mail.telepac.pt> for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:00:37 +0000 Message-Id: <5.1.0.14.0.20021028235039.0263bf70@mail.telepac.pt> X-Sender: jfigueir@mail.telepac.pt X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: Jorge Figueiredo Subject: Re: [A-List] TFP interpela a Lula y Serra In-Reply-To: Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="=====================_741249039==_.ALT" Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:04:34 +0000 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:04:34 +0000 --=====================_741249039==_.ALT Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed The author of this post is activist of TFP, a fascist brazilian group with ramifications in Portugal. The acronym mean Tradition, Family and Propriety. It's very strange that this group is present in our mailing list. Provocation? I require to our moderator to exclude this pollution of our list. J. Figueiredo Visit http://resistir.info At 20:49 27-10-2002 -0200, you wrote: >This is a multi-part message in MIME format. > >------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C27DFA.48DAF3C0 >Content-Type: text/plain; > charset="iso-8859-1" >Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > InEnglish,Please EmPortugu=EAs,PorFavor > >Estimados amigos: Les enviamos una noticia sobre las elecciones = >presidenciales brasile=F1as, publicada en el Diario Las Am=E9ricas, de = >Miami (Oct. 26, 2002), que nos parece de inter=E9s para diversos = >pa=EDses iberoamericanos. Aguardamos vuestros valiosos comentarios. = >Cordialmente, Ricardo Vieira de Melo Peixoto - Luso-Brasileira de = >Not=EDcias (LBN) - Lisboa=20 > >Brasil: TFP interpela a candidatos presidenciales > >La entidad constata que la "inmensa masa centrista y conservadora" se ve = >reducida a escoger entre dos "opciones de izquierda" y pide definiciones = >en lo que respecta a la familia cristiana y a la propiedad privada > >S=C3O PAULO (LBN) - La organizaci=F3n no-gubernamental TFP -Tradici=F3n, = >Familia, Propiedad- entreg=F3 hoy una carta a los candidatos = >presidenciales Jos=E9 Serra (PSDB) y Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva (PT) = >donde manifiesta que "la inmensa masa centrista y conservadora" de los = >brasile=F1os, "teniendo que comparecer a las urnas debido a la = >obligatoriedad del voto", se ve reducida a escoger entre dos "opciones = >meramente de izquierda". Por ello, TFP expresa "aprensi=F3n y temor" = >ante la posibilidad de que el futuro presidente de Brasil pueda = >impulsar, especialmente en lo que respecta a la familia cristiana y a la = >propiedad privada, pol=EDticas y leyes que atenten gravemente contra la = >Ley de Dios".=20 > >TFP a=F1ade que "uno de los requisitos fundamentales para la = >autenticidad de un r=E9gimen democr=E1tico es la definici=F3n = >program=E1tica de los candidatos"; pero que, "lamentablemente, en varios = >puntos de fundamental importancia, el actual proceso electoral no se ha = >caracterizado por la claridad de las posiciones, y s=ED por la falta de = >definici=F3n ideol=F3gica y hasta por la confusi=F3n". Delante de ello, = >la entidad -constituida por laicos cat=F3licos, que act=FAan en el campo = >temporal "bajo la exclusiva responsabilidad de sus miembros"- hace a los = >dos candidatos presidenciales 10 preguntas cuyas respuestas pueden = >contribuir a aclarar "las dudas y recelos" de la "gran corriente = >conservadora" de los brasile=F1os, cuyos votos ser=E1n decisivos el = >pr=F3ximo d=EDa 27 de octubre.=20 > >Entre otras preguntas, TFP solicita una n=EDtida posici=F3n de los = >candidatos Serra y Lula da Silva sobre si apoyar=E1n o no la = >aprobaci=F3n de leyes que legitimen el llamado "casamiento homosexual" y = >lleven a la legalizaci=F3n del aborto, condenados por la doctrina de la = >Iglesia; si reprimir=E1n o no "las invasiones y dem=E1s actividades de = >=EDndole criminal promovidas por el denominado Movimiento de los = >Sin-Tierra (MST)"; si pretenden llevar adelante el agro-igualitarismo = >demag=F3gico y socialista, promoviendo la Reforma Agraria; si = >respetar=E1n o no el derecho de los brasile=F1os de adquirir, poseer y = >portar armas debidamente registradas, para el ejercicio de su leg=EDtima = >defensa; si incentivar=E1n o no la aplicaci=F3n de la Reforma Urbana, de = >perfil socialista y confiscatorio; si, en el caso de ser electos, se = >comprometen o no a "denunciar las violaciones a la libertad y las = >persecuciones de =EDndole pol=EDtica y religiosa llevadas a cabo por el = >r=E9gimen comunista" del dictador Fidel Castro; etc. > >La carta constata, finalmente, el "silencio enigm=E1tico" de gran parte = >de los obispos y sacerdotes brasile=F1os respecto "de estos asuntos de = >importancia capital para el futuro cristiano de nuestra Naci=F3n". > >Hasta el cierre de esta edici=F3n, los candidatos presidenciales Lula y = >Serra a=FAn no hab=EDan respondido la solicitud de nuestra agencia para = >que manifiesten sus opiniones. > >LBN / Luso-Brasileira de Not=EDcias > >TFP:TextoCompleto > >Participe en nuestra encuesta. Simplemente env=EDe su voto y, en caso = >que as=ED lo desee, a=F1ada su valiosa opini=F3n: > >TFP:Concuerdo TFP:Discrepo TFP:Depende > >Subscribir > >SubscribirAmigos (con el previo consentimiento de =E9stos). > >Retirar a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu > >Gracias por vuestra atenci=F3n y paciencia. > > >------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C27DFA.48DAF3C0 >Content-Type: text/html; > charset="iso-8859-1" >Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > > > &nbs= >p; =20 <3d.htm>InEnglish,Please <3d.htm>EmPortugu=EAs,PorFavor > >Estimados amigos: Les enviamos una noticia sobre las = elecciones=20 >presidenciales brasile=F1as, publicada en el Diario Las Am=E9ricas, de = >Miami (Oct.=20 26, 2002), que nos parece de inter=E9s para diversos >pa=EDses = iberoamericanos.=20 Aguardamos vuestros valiosos comentarios. >Cordialmente, Ricardo Vieira = de Melo=20 Peixoto - Luso-Brasileira de >Not=EDcias (LBN) - Lisboa = > >Brasil: TFP interpela a candidatos=20 presidenciales > >La entidad constata que la "inmensa masa centrista y=20 conservadora" se >ve reducida a escoger entre dos "opciones de izquierda" = y pide=20 >definiciones en lo que respecta a la familia cristiana y a la propiedad=20 >privada > >S=C3O PAULO (LBN) - La organizaci=F3n no-gubernamental TFP = >-Tradici=F3n,=20 Familia, Propiedad- entreg=F3 hoy una carta a los >candidatos = presidenciales Jos=E9=20 Serra (PSDB) y Luis Ignacio Lula da >Silva (PT) donde manifiesta que "la = inmensa=20 masa centrista y >conservadora" de los brasile=F1os, "teniendo que = comparecer a las=20 >urnas debido a la obligatoriedad del voto", se ve reducida a escoger = >entre dos=20 "opciones meramente de izquierda". Por ello, TFP expresa >"aprensi=F3n y = temor"=20 ante la posibilidad de que el futuro presidente >de Brasil pueda = impulsar,=20 especialmente en lo que respecta a la >familia cristiana y a la propiedad = privada, pol=EDticas y leyes que >atenten gravemente contra la Ley de = Dios". > >TFP a=F1ade que "uno de los requisitos fundamentales para la = >autenticidad de un=20 r=E9gimen democr=E1tico es la definici=F3n >program=E1tica de los = candidatos"; pero que,=20 "lamentablemente, en >varios puntos de fundamental importancia, el actual = proceso=20 electoral >no se ha caracterizado por la claridad de las posiciones, y = s=ED por >la=20 falta de definici=F3n ideol=F3gica y hasta por la confusi=F3n". >Delante = de ello, la=20 entidad -constituida por laicos cat=F3licos, que >act=FAan en el campo = temporal "bajo=20 la exclusiva responsabilidad de >sus miembros"- hace a los dos candidatos = presidenciales 10 preguntas >cuyas respuestas pueden contribuir a aclarar = "las=20 dudas y recelos" de >la "gran corriente conservadora" de los = brasile=F1os, cuyos=20 votos >ser=E1n decisivos el pr=F3ximo d=EDa 27 de octubre. > >Entre otras preguntas, TFP solicita una n=EDtida posici=F3n de los = >candidatos=20 Serra y Lula da Silva sobre si apoyar=E1n o no la >aprobaci=F3n de leyes = que=20 legitimen el llamado "casamiento >homosexual" y lleven a la = legalizaci=F3n del=20 aborto, condenados por >la doctrina de la Iglesia; si reprimir=E1n o no = "las=20 invasiones y >dem=E1s actividades de =EDndole criminal promovidas por el = denominado=20 >Movimiento de los Sin-Tierra (MST)"; si pretenden llevar adelante el=20 >agro-igualitarismo demag=F3gico y socialista, promoviendo la Reforma = >Agraria; si=20 respetar=E1n o no el derecho de los brasile=F1os de >adquirir, poseer y = portar armas=20 debidamente registradas, para el >ejercicio de su leg=EDtima defensa; si=20 incentivar=E1n o no la >aplicaci=F3n de la Reforma Urbana, de perfil = socialista y=20 >confiscatorio; si, en el caso de ser electos, se comprometen o no a = >"denunciar=20 las violaciones a la libertad y las persecuciones de >=EDndole pol=EDtica = y religiosa=20 llevadas a cabo por el r=E9gimen >comunista" del dictador Fidel Castro; = etc. > >La carta constata, finalmente, el "silencio enigm=E1tico" de gran = parte >de los=20 obispos y sacerdotes brasile=F1os respecto "de estos asuntos de >= importancia=20 capital para el futuro cristiano de nuestra Naci=F3n". > >Hasta el cierre de esta edici=F3n, los candidatos presidenciales Lula = y >Serra=20 a=FAn no hab=EDan respondido la solicitud de nuestra agencia para >que = manifiesten=20 sus opiniones. > >LBN / Luso-Brasileira de Not=EDcias > ><3d.htm>TF= P:TextoCompleto > >Participe en nuestra encuesta. Simplemente env=EDe su voto y, en caso = >que as=ED=20 lo desee, a=F1ada su valiosa opini=F3n: > ><3d.htm>TFP:Concuer= do =20 <3d.htm>TFP:Discrepo= =20 TFP:Depende > ><3d.htm>Subscribir= > ><3d.htm>Subscrib= irAmigos (con=20 el previo consentimiento de =E9stos). > >Gracias por vuestra atenci=F3n y paciencia. > >------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C27DFA.48DAF3C0-- --=====================_741249039==_.ALT Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable The author of this post is activist of TFP, a fascist
brazilian group with ramifications in Portugal.
The acronym mean Tradition, Family and Propriety.
It's very strange that this group is present in our mailing list.
Provocation?  I require to our moderator to exclude this
pollution of our list.
J. Figueiredo
Visit http://resistir.info

At 20:49 27-10-2002 -0200, you wrote:
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.

------=3D_NextPart_000_000D_01C27DFA.48DAF3C0
Content-Type: text/plain;
        charset=3D&qu= ot;iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

            &nbs= p;     InEnglish,Please   EmPortugu=3DEAs,PorFavor

Estimados amigos: Les enviamos una noticia sobre las elecciones =3D
presidenciales brasile=3DF1as, publicada en el Diario Las Am=3DE9ricas, de =3D
Miami (Oct. 26, 2002), que nos parece de inter=3DE9s para diversos =3D
pa=3DEDses iberoamericanos. Aguardamos vuestros valiosos comentarios. =3D
Cordialmente, Ricardo Vieira de Melo Peixoto - Luso-Brasileira de =3D
Not=3DEDcias (LBN) - Lisboa=3D20

Brasil: TFP interpela a candidatos presidenciales

La entidad constata que la "inmensa masa centrista y conservadora" se ve =3D
reducida a escoger entre dos "opciones de izquierda" y pide definiciones =3D
en lo que respecta a la familia cristiana y a la propiedad privada

S=3DC3O PAULO (LBN) - La organizaci=3DF3n no-gubernamental TFP -Tradici=3DF3= n, =3D
Familia, Propiedad- entreg=3DF3 hoy una carta a los candidatos =3D
presidenciales Jos=3DE9 Serra (PSDB) y Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva (PT) =3D
donde manifiesta que "la inmensa masa centrista y conservadora" de los =3D
brasile=3DF1os, "teniendo que comparecer a las urnas debido a la =3D
obligatoriedad del voto", se ve reducida a escoger entre dos "opciones =3D
meramente de izquierda". Por ello, TFP expresa "aprensi=3DF3n y temor" =3D
ante la posibilidad de que el futuro presidente de Brasil pueda =3D
impulsar, especialmente en lo que respecta a la familia cristiana y a la =3D
propiedad privada, pol=3DEDticas y leyes que atenten gravemente contra la =3D
Ley de Dios".=3D20

TFP a=3DF1ade que "uno de los requisitos fundamentales para la =3D
autenticidad de un r=3DE9gimen democr=3DE1tico es la definici=3DF3n =3D
program=3DE1tica de los candidatos"; pero que, "lamentablemente, en varios =3D
puntos de fundamental importancia, el actual proceso electoral no se ha =3D
caracterizado por la claridad de las posiciones, y s=3DED por la falta de =3D
definici=3DF3n ideol=3DF3gica y hasta por la confusi=3DF3n". Delante de ello, =3D
la entidad -constituida por laicos cat=3DF3licos, que act=3DFAan en el campo =3D
temporal "bajo la exclusiva responsabilidad de sus miembros"- hace a los =3D
dos candidatos presidenciales 10 preguntas cuyas respuestas pueden=20 =3D
contribuir a aclarar "las dudas y recelos" de la "gran corriente =3D
conservadora" de los brasile=3DF1os, cuyos votos ser=3DE1n decisivos el =3D
pr=3DF3ximo d=3DEDa 27 de octubre.=3D20

Entre otras preguntas, TFP solicita una n=3DEDtida posici=3DF3n de los=20 =3D
candidatos Serra y Lula da Silva sobre si apoyar=3DE1n o no la =3D
aprobaci=3DF3n de leyes que legitimen el llamado "casamiento homosexual" y =3D
lleven a la legalizaci=3DF3n del aborto, condenados por la doctrina de la =3D
Iglesia; si reprimir=3DE1n o no "las invasiones y dem=3DE1s actividades de =3D
=3DEDndole criminal promovidas por el denominado Movimiento de los =3D
Sin-Tierra (MST)"; si pretenden llevar adelante el agro-igualitarismo =3D
demag=3DF3gico y socialista, promoviendo la Reforma Agraria; si =3D
respetar=3DE1n o no el derecho de los brasile=3DF1os de adquirir, poseer y =3D
portar armas debidamente registradas, para el ejercicio de su leg=3DEDtima =3D
defensa; si incentivar=3DE1n o no la aplicaci=3DF3n de la Reforma Urbana, de =3D
perfil socialista y confiscatorio; si, en el caso de ser electos, se =3D
comprometen o no a "denunciar las violaciones a la libertad y las =3D
persecuciones de =3DEDndole pol=3DEDtica y religiosa llevadas a cabo por el =3D
r=3DE9gimen comunista" del dictador Fidel Castro; etc.

La carta constata, finalmente, el "silencio enigm=3DE1tico" de gran parte =3D
de los obispos y sacerdotes brasile=3DF1os respecto "de estos asuntos de =3D
importancia capital para el futuro cristiano de nuestra Naci=3DF3n".

Hasta el cierre de esta edici=3DF3n, los candidatos presidenciales Lula y =3D
Serra a=3DFAn no hab=3DEDan respondido la solicitud de nuestra agencia para =3D
que manifiesten sus opiniones.

LBN / Luso-Brasileira de Not=3DEDcias

TFP:TextoCompleto

Participe en nuestra encuesta. Simplemente env=3DEDe su voto y, en caso =3D
que as=3DED lo desee, a=3DF1ada su valiosa opini=3DF3n:

TFP:Concuerdo      TFP:Discrepo      TFP:Depende

Subscribir

SubscribirAmigos  (con el previo consentimiento de =3DE9stos).

Retirar a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu

Gracias por vuestra atenci=3DF3n y paciencia.


------=3D_NextPart_000_000D_01C27DFA.48DAF3C0
Content-Type: text/html;
        charset=3D&qu= ot;iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">

           &nbs=3D
p;     =3D20 InEnglish,Please   EmPortugu=3DEAs,PorFavor

Estimados amigos: Les enviamos una noticia sobre las =3D elecciones=3D20 presidenciales brasile=3DF1as, publicada en el Diario Las Am=3DE9ricas, de = =3D Miami (Oct.=3D20 26, 2002), que nos parece de inter=3DE9s para diversos pa=3DEDses =3D iberoamericanos.=3D20 Aguardamos vuestros valiosos comentario= s. Cordialmente, Ricardo Vieira =3D de Melo=3D20 Peixoto - Luso-Brasileira de Not=3DEDcias (LBN) - Lisboa =3D

Brasil: TFP interpela a candidatos=3D20 presidenciales

La entidad constata que la "inmensa masa centrista y=3D20 conservadora" se ve reducida a escoger entre dos "opciones de izquierda" =3D y pide=3D20 definiciones en lo que respecta a la familia cristiana y a la propiedad=3D20 privada

S=3DC3O PAULO (LBN) - La organizaci=3DF3n no-gubernamental TFP =3D -Tradici=3DF3n,=3D20 Familia, Propiedad- entreg=3DF3 hoy una carta a los candidatos =3D presidenciales Jos=3DE9=3D20 Serra (PSDB) y Luis Ignacio Lula= da Silva (PT) donde manifiesta que "la =3D inmensa=3D20 masa centrista y conservadora" de los brasile=3DF1os, "teniendo que =3D comparecer = a las=3D20 urnas debido a la obligatoriedad del voto", se ve reducida a escoger =3D entre dos=3D20 "opciones meramente de izquierda". Por ello, TFP expresa "aprensi=3DF3n y =3D temor"=3D20 ante la posibilidad de que el futuro presidente de Brasil pueda =3D impulsar,=3D20 especialmente en lo que respecta a la familia cristiana y a la propiedad =3D privada, pol=3DEDticas y leyes que atenten gravemente contra la Ley de = =3D Dios".

TFP a=3DF1ade que "uno de los requisitos fundamentales para la =3D autenticidad de un=3D20 r=3DE9gimen democr=3DE1tico es la definici=3DF3n program=3DE1tica de los =3D candidatos"; pero que,=3D20 "lamentablemente, en varios puntos de fundamental importancia, el actual =3D proceso=3D20 electoral no se ha caracterizado por la claridad de las posiciones, y =3D s=3DED por la=3D20 falta de definici=3DF3n= ideol=3DF3gica y hasta por la confusi=3DF3n". Delante =3D de ello, la=3D20 entidad -constituida por laicos cat=3DF3licos, que act=3DFAan en el campo =3D tempor= al "bajo=3D20 la exclusiva responsabilidad de sus miembros"- hace a los dos candidatos =3D presidenciales 10 preguntas cuyas respuestas pueden contribuir a aclarar =3D "las=3D20 dudas y recelos" de la "gran corriente conservadora" de los =3D brasile=3DF1os, cuyos=3D2= 0 votos ser=3DE1n decisivos el pr=3DF3ximo d=3DEDa 27 de octubre.

Entre otras preguntas, TFP solicita una n=3DEDtida posici=3DF3n de los =3D candidatos=3D20 Serra y Lula da Silva sobre si apoyar=3DE1n o no la aprobaci=3DF3n de leyes =3D que=3D20 legitimen el llamado "casamiento homosexual" y lleven a la =3D legalizaci=3DF3n del=3D20 aborto, condena= dos por la doctrina de la Iglesia; si reprimir=3DE1n o no =3D "las=3D20 invasiones y dem=3DE1s actividades de =3DEDndole criminal promovidas por el = =3D denominado=3D20 Movimiento de los Sin-Tierra (MST)"; si pretenden llevar adelante el=3D20 agro-igualitarismo demag=3DF3gico y socialista, promoviendo la Reforma =3D Agraria; si=3D20 respetar=3DE1n o no el derecho d= e los brasile=3DF1os de adquirir, poseer y =3D portar armas=3D20 debidamente registradas, para el ejercicio de su leg=3DEDtima defensa; si=3D20 incentivar=3DE1n o no la aplicaci=3DF3n de la Reforma Urbana, de perfil =3D socialista y=3D20 confiscatorio; si, en el caso de ser electos, se comprometen o no a =3D "denunciar=3D20 las violaciones a la libertad y las persecuciones de =3DEDndole pol=3DEDtica =3D y religiosa=3D20 llevadas a= cabo por el r=3DE9gimen comunista" del dictador Fidel Castro; =3D etc.

La carta constata, finalmente, el "silencio enigm=3DE1tico" de gran =3D parte de los=3D20 obispos y sacerdotes brasile=3DF1os respecto "de estos asuntos de =3D importancia=3D20 capital para el futuro cristiano de nuestra Naci=3DF3n".

Hasta el cierre de esta edici=3DF3n, los candidatos presidenciales Lula =3D = y Serra=3D20 a=3DFAn no hab=3DEDan respondido la solicitud de nuestra agencia para que =3D manifiesten=3D20 sus opiniones.

LBN / Luso-Brasileira de Not=3DEDcias

TF=3D P:TextoCompleto

Participe en nuestra encuesta. Simplemente env=3DEDe su voto y, en caso =3D que as=3DED=3D20 lo desee, a=3DF1ada su valiosa opini=3DF3n:

TFP:Concuer=3D do    =3D20  TFP:Discrepo=3D      =3D20 TFP:Depende

Subscribir=3D

Subscrib=3D irAmigos  (con=3D20 el previo consentimiento de =3DE9stos).

Gracias por vuestra atenci=3DF3n y paciencia.

------=3D_NextPart_000_000D_01C27DFA.48DAF3C0--
--=====================_741249039==_.ALT-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Oct 28 23:59:50 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:59:50 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186QLu-0003yA-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:59:50 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186QLc-0006pI-00; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:59:32 -0700 Received: from mail1.wits.ac.za ([146.141.15.210]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186QJS-0006ni-00 for ; Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:57:19 -0700 Received: from zeus.mgmt.wits.ac.za ([146.141.93.100]) by mail1.wits.ac.za with smtp (Exim 3.22 #1) id 186Tvc-0007ZD-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:48:56 -0200 Received: from MGMT-Message_Server by zeus.mgmt.wits.ac.za with Novell_GroupWise; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 09:00:13 +0200 Message-Id: X-Mailer: Novell GroupWise 5.5.5 From: "Patrick Bond" To: , Subject: Re: [A-List] Zimbabwe: disintegration continues Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Disposition: inline Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:59:45 +0200 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:59:45 +0200 Hi Michael and comrades, The second edition of Zimbabwe's Plunge (coauthored with Masimba Manyanya, = who has served as a leading economist for both Mugabe and Tsvangirai), = including a new 20,000 word afterword, is going to press this week. Let me = know if you want a copy of the new material, covering January-October = 2002, by email. I wish I could get comrade Mac to come around for awhile and check out the = scene in person... the healthy prejudices against bourgeois media sources = notwithstanding, he'd agree that Zim has become a proto-fascist state... >>> michael.keaney@mbs.fi 10/25/02 08:54AM >>> Meanwhile, out of range of most radar, the saga of Zimbabwe continues. = We've tried to keep tabs on it periodically, but it would be most useful if Pat Bond and/or John Enyang could tell us more about what's happening there. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 00:22:42 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:22:42 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Qi2-00043W-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:22:42 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Qhk-0006uU-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:22:24 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186QhB-0006uL-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:21:49 -0700 Received: from modem-1350.rhino.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.137.101.70] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 186Qh6-0004F3-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:21:44 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] Zimbabwe: disintegration continues Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 In-Reply-To: Importance: Normal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:21:11 -0000 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:21:11 -0000 Patrick, Hi. Please don't wait to be asked! I want to see the new afterword and so does everyone else. best as ever Mark > -----Original Message----- > From: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu > [mailto:a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu]On Behalf Of Patrick Bond > Sent: 29 October 2002 07:00 > To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; michael.keaney@mbs.fi > Subject: Re: [A-List] Zimbabwe: disintegration continues > > > Hi Michael and comrades, > > The second edition of Zimbabwe's Plunge (coauthored with Masimba > Manyanya, who has served as a leading economist for both Mugabe > and Tsvangirai), including a new 20,000 word afterword, is going > to press this week. Let me know if you want a copy of the new > material, covering January-October 2002, by email. > > I wish I could get comrade Mac to come around for awhile and > check out the scene in person... the healthy prejudices against > bourgeois media sources notwithstanding, he'd agree that Zim has > become a proto-fascist state... > > >>> michael.keaney@mbs.fi 10/25/02 08:54AM >>> > Meanwhile, out of range of most radar, the saga of Zimbabwe > continues. We've > tried to keep tabs on it periodically, but it would be most useful if Pat > Bond and/or John Enyang could tell us more about what's happening there. > > > > From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 00:51:34 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:51:34 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186R9y-0004B6-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:51:34 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186R9l-00076a-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:51:21 -0700 Received: from greennet1.poptel.org.uk ([213.55.2.205] helo=mail.gn.apc.org) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186R8x-00076P-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:50:31 -0700 Received: from pavilion.gn.apc.org (unknown [212.248.139.70]) by mail.gn.apc.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 6AA4414B5FA for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:50:23 +0000 (GMT) Message-Id: <4.3.2.7.1.20021029073943.03691be0@pop3.norton.antivirus> X-Sender: cburford/pop.gn.apc.org@pop3.norton.antivirus X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 4.3.2 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: Chris Burford Subject: RE: [A-List] Has China Become an Ally? In-Reply-To: References: Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:44:35 +0000 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:44:35 +0000 At 28/10/02 21:17 +0000, Mark wrote: >John Gulick's post raises some interesting issues but I have 3 caveats. (1) >I don't think the US will attack Iraq (yeah, I know, contrarian), (2) the >PRC and the US are locked together like 2 sumo wrestlers in an economic >death-grip; it is the relationship between these 2 economies which is >largely fuelling the huge and dangerous deflationary process in the world >system, and this economic competition seems to me more dangerous than >current rivalry with the EU or earlier rivalries with either Japan or the >USSR. (3) The EU in its present fragmented state is only a danger to the US >insofar as and to the degree that the US is failing in its economic >competition with China (primarily, but also with Asia as a whole, because >Asia is the source of deflationary pressures; deflation being stealth-war >against US hegemony). Very interesting and important debate. I would love to see US hegemony in terminal decline but how to choose between seeing Europe or China as a greater threat? Over a thirty year period China may be the greater threat, but over the next ten years Europe, for all its sluggishness, has a considerable ability to centralise masses of advanced capital, and might decide to become more competitive at the expense of its working class. Are there any figures that help us to decide between these two main scenarios? Chris Burford From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 01:11:34 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 01:11:34 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186RTK-0004G1-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 01:11:34 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186RT7-0007Hv-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 01:11:21 -0700 Received: from mta6.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.240]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186RSW-0007Hm-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 01:10:45 -0700 Received: from sabri ([66.124.233.210]) by mta6.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H4Q00K1JHBT37@mta6.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:10:44 -0800 (PST) From: Sabri Oncu To: PEN-L , ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: QUOTED-PRINTABLE Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Here we go again or do we? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:08:50 -0800 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:08:50 -0800 October 29: Market Risk =96 US Equity Markets Likely To Fall As Earnings Estimates Keep Dropping Location: New York Author: Tim Jones, RiskCenter Correspondent Date: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 US stock gains over the last three weeks have been impressive, with the S&P 500 rising 16% last week. This gain is unlikely to continue this week, as stocks are at risk from the fact that fourth quarter earnings estimates are deemed as too optimistic. In the week just ended, stocks gained for a third week. The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.5 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.4 percent. The gains last week came about largely due to better-than-expected results by major companies such as Microsoft Corp. and Bank of America Corp. A survey of analyst estimates compiled by Thomson First Call revealed that earnings growth in the last quarter of 2002 for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is forecast to almost triple from the July to September period, seen as somewhat unrealistic. "The fourth quarter is in jeopardy," said Owen Fitzpatrick of Deutsche Bank Private Banking. "Expectations are still high." To comprehend the real effect of earnings estimate on stock movements, shares of Texas Instruments Inc., which makes chips for mobile phones, and health insurer Cigna Corp. tumbled last week as they cut forecasts for fourth-quarter profits. The quarter earnings season for third quarter is nearing an end after almost three-quarters of the S&P 500 published results. Companies due to report earnings this week include Procter & Gamble Co., Electronic Data Systems Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and ChevronTexaco Corp. This week, shares of automakers will be under scrutiny. Sales at General Motors Corp. are expected to drop by 36%, 31 percent at Ford Motor Co. and 22 percent at DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler unit from a year-earlier record month, according to a forecast by Luckey Consulting Group Inc. October 2001 was the first full month that US-based automakers offered interest-free loans to revive demand after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Automakers report sales on Nov. 1. The stocks market will also be watching and reacting to economic data, including gross domestic product and unemployment figures. "We're starting to live from economic data point to economic data point," said Cliff Fox, who helps manage $2.1 billion at Columbus Circle Investors in Stamford , Connecticut . The GDP report is expected to show the economy grew at a 3.6 percent annual rate in the three months ended September. In the last three months of 2002, economic growth may slow to a pace of 2.2 percent, according to this month's consensus estimate of economists surveyed by the Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Some investors said that slowdown may prompt more companies to fire workers before the year-end. The unemployment rate in October is estimated to have risen by about 5.8 percent, from 5.6 percent the previous month "Companies recognize that the recovery is farther out than before," said James Abate, who helps handle $17 billion at Global Asset Management Inc. "That will increase the likelihood of one-time charges," which may put a drag on fourth-quarter earnings. Economic indicators aside, the trend of earnings estimates starting to decline is alarming. Analysts expect fourth-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 to rise 17.3 percent, according to First Call, down from the 19.9 percent increase projected on Oct. 1 and the 22.9 percent prediction on Sept. 1. This may keep going down as the quarter moves along. Article at: http://www.riskcenter.com/cgi-bin/article.pl?id=3D5685 From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 01:26:41 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 01:26:41 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Rhx-0004Kx-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 01:26:41 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Rhk-0007N0-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 01:26:28 -0700 Received: from mta6.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.240]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Rgp-0007Mg-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 01:25:31 -0700 Received: from sabri ([66.124.233.210]) by mta6.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H4Q00JXBI2I5M@mta6.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:25:31 -0800 (PST) From: Sabri Oncu To: ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Has China Become an Ally? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:24:51 -0800 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:24:51 -0800 Chris wrote: > I would love to see US hegemony in terminal decline > but how to choose between seeing Europe or China as a > greater threat? ..... Are there any figures that help > us to decide between these two main scenarios? It would definitely be nice to see some data but even with the most reliable of data I don't think we are at a point in history where we can make such a decision. It is too early for that by the looks of it. So many forecasts we heard so far turned out to be so wrong. But we know with almost certainty, for example, that Bangladesh will not be the next major challenger to the US hegemony. At least, as the most risk averse indiviual you can possibly meet when it comes to betting games, I am willing to bet a huge amount on that, say, $1000. Best, Sabri From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 01:28:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 01:28:38 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Rjq-0004LB-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 01:28:38 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186RjY-0007Qt-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 01:28:20 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186RjE-0007Qk-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 01:28:00 -0700 Received: from modem-3726.rhino.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.137.110.142] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 186RjC-0004YQ-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:27:58 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] Zimbabwe: disintegration continues Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 In-Reply-To: Importance: Normal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:27:25 -0000 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:27:25 -0000 Pat Bond just sent me this new Afterword offlist, it's too big to post (350 kb) but if anyone wants it let's me know, I guess it's OK to pass it on. Maybe we should be offering this book and other stuff of Pat's in the Left Book Club, which btw we need some help with running. If any comrade, preferably but not necessarily UK-based, would like to help organise the Left Book Club, please let me or Michael know off-list. Mark > -----Original Message----- > From: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu > [mailto:a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu]On Behalf Of Mark Jones > Sent: 29 October 2002 07:21 > To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu > Subject: RE: [A-List] Zimbabwe: disintegration continues > > > Patrick, Hi. Please don't wait to be asked! I want to see the new > afterword > and so does everyone else. > > best as ever > > Mark > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu > > [mailto:a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu]On Behalf Of Patrick Bond > > Sent: 29 October 2002 07:00 > > To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; michael.keaney@mbs.fi > > Subject: Re: [A-List] Zimbabwe: disintegration continues > > > > > > Hi Michael and comrades, > > > > The second edition of Zimbabwe's Plunge (coauthored with Masimba > > Manyanya, who has served as a leading economist for both Mugabe > > and Tsvangirai), including a new 20,000 word afterword, is going > > to press this week. Let me know if you want a copy of the new > > material, covering January-October 2002, by email. > > > > I wish I could get comrade Mac to come around for awhile and > > check out the scene in person... the healthy prejudices against > > bourgeois media sources notwithstanding, he'd agree that Zim has > > become a proto-fascist state... > > > > >>> michael.keaney@mbs.fi 10/25/02 08:54AM >>> > > Meanwhile, out of range of most radar, the saga of Zimbabwe > > continues. We've > > tried to keep tabs on it periodically, but it would be most > useful if Pat > > Bond and/or John Enyang could tell us more about what's happening there. > > > > > > > > > > From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 02:01:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 02:01:36 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186SFk-0004Th-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 02:01:36 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186SFV-0007bW-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 02:01:21 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186SF0-0007bN-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 02:00:50 -0700 Received: from modem-3603.zebra.dialup.pol.co.uk ([81.76.158.19] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 186SEw-0005lC-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 09:00:46 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] Has China Become an Ally? Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 In-Reply-To: <4.3.2.7.1.20021029073943.03691be0@pop3.norton.antivirus> Importance: Normal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 09:00:11 -0000 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 09:00:11 -0000 Chris Burford wrote: > > Very interesting and important debate. I would love to see US hegemony in > terminal decline but how to choose between seeing Europe or China as a > greater threat? Over a thirty year period China may be the > greater threat, > but over the next ten years Europe, for all its sluggishness, has a > considerable ability to centralise masses of advanced capital, and might > decide to become more competitive at the expense of its working > class. Are > there any figures that help us to decide between these two main scenarios? > I don't see from where Europe will get the political clout to 'decide' to take on the US; for one thing, it's been doing that ever since 1949 (if not for the whole period since 1914). Germany and Japan had considerable success in the 1960s-1970s and managed to face off competitive US devaluations when Nixon scrapped Bretton Woods and the Gold Standard in 1971. Essentially the German/Japanese strategic choice lay between competing by devaluing their own currencies, or competing by raising productivity and securing their competitive advantage by technological advance, capital-deepening and raised quality. Both strategies are very dangerous when you are manoeuvring against the hegemonic power whose currency (the dollar) is global currency of last resort and also the medium thru which international trade is transacted; the US enjoyed all the benefits of seignorage plus of course, the ultimate precious asset of having oil denominated in dollars. Nevertheless, for a while the German/Japanese strategy of allowing their currencies to revalue was successful. They avoided the deflationary consequences and social risks of having over-valued currencies (which leads to loss of external markets, mass unemployment and industrial collapse) because they were indeed so good at raising productivity rates and outcompeting the US technologically. Still, both economies have endured long-term damage as a result of endemic deflationary pressures lasting almost 30 years now, and which have finally strangled growth in Germany and produced high levels of unemployment in both Germany and Japan, where growth has also been impacted obviously. Now the neolibs (and you are echoing them?!) are saying that the EU lost competitiveness because of 'structural rigidities', lack of institutional reform especially in the labour-market, too high levels of taxation and welfare spending. Get rid of this, and bingo, Europe will unleashed will rebound. The example is Britain, which did get rid of all this and did rebound (the say). This is all 21 carat bullshit of course. (a) Britain this year has a higher level of tax as proportion of GDP than Germany, and is having to spend ferocious on public services to make up for the devastation of the Thatcher era of 'dynamism', 'labour market flexibility' etc (the schizoid attitude of the Blair/Brown govt to these issues is mind-boggling to behold. In almost the same breath the lecture 'the Continent' about the need for neolib reforms, while patting themselves on the back for doing the exact opposite at home, where they've raised welfare standards, introduced a minimum wage, given labour new rights etc etc. How weird is all that?). And (b) the real and obvious intent of neolib (i.e. US) 'fraternal advice' to Germany and Japan is to drive a stake thru the hearts of these once-feared competitors while there is still time. The results of the post-1949 competitive/accumulation cycle were something of a stalemate; Germany/Japan did not trash the US economy, but that's not in great shape to assume Bush's megalomaniac military burdens either. If however Germany/Japan do take neolib advice to become 'more competitive' and to 'centralise masses of capital' as you put it, then the consequences will be deepening inequality and the exact opposite of Giscard's vaunted Europe of 'justice, solidarity and rights'. And insofar as the strategy succeeds in raising output while also reducing European final demand (by impoverishing more workers) all that this Napoleonic vision can do is to deepen world deflationary processes and intensify the downward accumulation spiral. Genius. The point is this: Europe cannot 'decide' anything while it is tied by millions of political and above all military bonds to US strategy, plastered over with US bases and incapable of having a single European voice, a single EU foreign policy. Europe cannot become whole and free unless there is *first of all* a substantive father weakening of US hegemonic power, and THAT can only happen as a result of its failure to compete with China, QED. The US will not attack Iraq except in concert with its 'allies' but in this case cannot hope to extract the benefits it seeks because they won't agree to anything but a proper divvying-up of the spoils and they want Bush to sign off to this in blood (his own preferably) because no-one trusts perfidious U!S!A! U!S!A! anymore. This is why Bush won't do it, pari passu. Because the well-known and much discussed risks of sending Tommy Franks as Legate (in a leather skirt, looking like Gladiator?) to Iraq are not worth taking unless the guaranteed result is to cow the rest of us into silence, and that just ain't happening. Mark From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 02:24:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 02:24:33 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Sbx-0004ad-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 02:24:33 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Sbm-0007hk-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 02:24:22 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Sai-0007gb-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 02:23:16 -0700 Received: from modem-3603.zebra.dialup.pol.co.uk ([81.76.158.19] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 186Sag-0004SE-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 09:23:14 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] Has China Become an Ally? Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 In-Reply-To: Importance: Normal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 09:22:41 -0000 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 09:22:41 -0000 > > The point is this: Europe cannot 'decide' anything while it is tied by > millions of political and above all military bonds to US > strategy, plastered > over with US bases and incapable of having a single European > voice, a single > EU foreign policy. Europe cannot become whole and free unless there is > *first of all* a substantive father weakening of US hegemonic power, and > THAT can only happen as a result of its failure to compete with > China, QED. > I want to emphasise this point. the whole point of having Marxism as an analytical tool is to USE it. People look at the public declarations of leaders and surface run of events and draw conclusions accordingly--without bothering too much to make any kind of Marxian, i.e. VALUE-THEORETIC analysis of what's going on underneath. Ever since 9/11 there has been clamant talk on all sides for e.g. about Russia's 'new beginning', Russia's 'opening to the West', Russia as ally and partner of the US etc, buttressed often by really idiotic talk about the alleged 'material basis' of this partnership, namely, that the US needs oil and Russia needs to sell oil, Russia is a stable partner, ergo can be a reliable supplier and as a Christian non-Opec country, Russia will therefore help dish Persian Gulf and Arab hubris forever. Bullshit. Russia is *objectively a part of Opec* and shares Opec's basic needs. Russia is *objectively an ally of Iraq* and as we now see will go to considerable lengths and risk Bush's anger, to defend its Iraqi ally in the Security Council and elsewhere. Similarly, *China needs Europe* and more than that *the EU is objectively China's ally* because (as value-analysis clearly shows) Europe cannot defeat the US hegemon *without China's help*. John Gulick is arguing that in fact China's interests are homologated to America's; they need each other's markets, capital, energy supplies which the US can guarantee etc. True, all true, and also the bit about the demographic collapse of the Russian Far East and the likelihood of Chinese mass immigration there; but the point is that beyond the dyadic Sumo wrestling match or folie-a-deux between the CCP and the Repugs there is something else. It is a parallelogram of forces you have to analyse and think about, not just a number of isolable, functionally-separate competitions between China-Us, EU-Us, Opec-the West, etc etc. China *cannot* put all its eggs in the US basket in the way John Gulick hypothesizes because whatever the contingent, fortuitous or surface-form of mutual needs, tactical alliances etc between China and the USA are right now, objectively and in value-terms *these two states are the principal rivals on the world stage* and the competition between them is the main dynamic now configuring the driving the whole global conjuncture. And within that dynamic, the US and China are enemies: and China and the EU are fundamental allied. Mark From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 04:15:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 04:15:33 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186ULN-0004ze-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 04:15:33 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186ULC-0008DG-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 04:15:22 -0700 Received: from granger.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.148]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186UK4-0008D4-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 04:14:12 -0700 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by granger.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 186UK3-00047g-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:14:11 -0500 Message-ID: <00af01c27f3c$4a2fb100$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: References: Subject: Re: [A-List] Zimbabwe: disintegration continues MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:14:00 -0500 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:14:00 -0500 Please send along Pat Bond's piece. Stan sherrynstan@igc.org "We see the unhistorical and ahistorical character of bourgeois thought most strikingly when we consider the problem of the present as a historical problem." -George Lukacs ----- Original Message ----- From: "Mark Jones" To: Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 3:27 AM Subject: RE: [A-List] Zimbabwe: disintegration continues > Pat Bond just sent me this new Afterword offlist, it's too big to post (350 > kb) but if anyone wants it let's me know, I guess it's OK to pass it on. > Maybe we should be offering this book and other stuff of Pat's in the Left > Book Club, which btw we need some help with running. If any comrade, > preferably but not necessarily UK-based, would like to help organise the > Left Book Club, please let me or Michael know off-list. > > Mark > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu > > [mailto:a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu]On Behalf Of Mark Jones > > Sent: 29 October 2002 07:21 > > To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu > > Subject: RE: [A-List] Zimbabwe: disintegration continues > > > > > > Patrick, Hi. Please don't wait to be asked! I want to see the new > > afterword > > and so does everyone else. > > > > best as ever > > > > Mark > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu > > > [mailto:a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu]On Behalf Of Patrick Bond > > > Sent: 29 October 2002 07:00 > > > To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; michael.keaney@mbs.fi > > > Subject: Re: [A-List] Zimbabwe: disintegration continues > > > > > > > > > Hi Michael and comrades, > > > > > > The second edition of Zimbabwe's Plunge (coauthored with Masimba > > > Manyanya, who has served as a leading economist for both Mugabe > > > and Tsvangirai), including a new 20,000 word afterword, is going > > > to press this week. Let me know if you want a copy of the new > > > material, covering January-October 2002, by email. > > > > > > I wish I could get comrade Mac to come around for awhile and > > > check out the scene in person... the healthy prejudices against > > > bourgeois media sources notwithstanding, he'd agree that Zim has > > > become a proto-fascist state... > > > > > > >>> michael.keaney@mbs.fi 10/25/02 08:54AM >>> > > > Meanwhile, out of range of most radar, the saga of Zimbabwe > > > continues. We've > > > tried to keep tabs on it periodically, but it would be most > > useful if Pat > > > Bond and/or John Enyang could tell us more about what's happening there. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 06:01:45 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:01:45 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186W09-0005QH-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:01:45 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Vzp-0000Hp-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:01:25 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186QiU-0006w1-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:23:10 -0700 Received: from modem-1350.rhino.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.137.101.70] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 186QiT-0004qm-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:23:09 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] TFP interpela a Lula y Serra Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_000D_01C27F1B.F4D15800" X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 In-Reply-To: <5.1.0.14.0.20021028235039.0263bf70@mail.telepac.pt> Importance: Normal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:22:36 -0000 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:22:36 -0000 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C27F1B.F4D15800 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Thanks, Jorge. Any updates on your Manifesto actions? Mark ------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C27F1B.F4D15800 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Thanks, Jorge.
 
Any=20 updates on your Manifesto actions?
 
Mark
------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C27F1B.F4D15800-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 06:02:12 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:02:12 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186W0Z-0005QS-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:02:11 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186W0J-0000IA-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:01:55 -0700 Received: from granger.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.148]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186UXA-0008It-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 04:27:44 -0700 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by granger.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 186UWI-0001v8-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:26:51 -0500 Message-ID: <00c001c27f3e$0f26dbe0$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_00BD_01C27F14.2199DB80" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Subject: [A-List] Full Spectrum Entropy: Wheels off... Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:26:34 -0500 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:26:34 -0500 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_00BD_01C27F14.2199DB80 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable 10/28/02 Wheels Come Off U.S. War Plans For Iraq.=20 Administration Making Riskier, More Volatile Moves to Begin "All or = Nothing" Gamble for Iraqi Oilfields. = http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102802_wheels.html =B7 Reported Coup Attempt in Qatar Threatens Base=20 =B7 Worldwide Attacks on U.S. Interests=20 =B7 Massive Domestic/International Protests=20 =B7 U.N./Foreign Political Opposition Proves Effective=20 Wheels Come Off U.S. War Plans for Iraq Administration Making Riskier, More Volatile Moves to Begin "All or = Nothing" Gamble for Iraqi Oilfields by Michael C. Ruppert [=A9 Copyright, 2000, From The Wilderness Publications, = www.fromthewilderness.com. All rights reserved. May be copied, = distributed or posted on the Internet for non-profit purposes only.] Oct. 28, 2002, 18:30 PST (FTW) -- All over the world, both = internationally and here at home, the wheels are coming off of the Bush = Administration's plans for the invasion and occupation of Iraq. And Bush = Administration responses to recent events appear to be moving a tense = international situation into a new phase where chaotic, scattered and = increasingly bloody violence may spread risk to civilian populations and = the estimated 80,000 to 100,000 U.S. troops that have been = forward-deployed in anticipation of the attacks for months. U.S. troop = deployments in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Kyrgyzstan, = Uzbekistan, Georgia, Djibouti, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan and a = Kurdish controlled region of northern Iraq -- once offensive staging = points or strategic postings -- are now becoming vulnerable defensive = liabilities as world sentiment mounts against the U.S. invasion. Britain = is also reported to have troop deployments in Oman on the Southeast tip = of the Arabian Peninsula. At stake is a nation which holds 11 percent of the world's oil and which = is one of only two nations capable of quickly increasing production in = time to avert a major economic collapse for the U.S. A recently reported coup attempt in Qatar, perhaps the most vital = country to a successful U.S. invasion plan, has raised serious questions = about whether the administration can afford to wait much longer without = risking the entire collapse of both its prestige and a plan which has = recently been shown to be years in the making. The assassination today of the head of the U.S. Agency for International = Development (USAID) in Amman, Jordan follows on the heels of recent = attacks in Kuwait, the Philippines, South Korea, Pakistan, Afghanistan = and Bali, most of which have been reportedly linked to terrorist = organizations sympathetic with Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda network. An = interpretation not offered by the administration, but which has been = voiced by some Islamic foreign nationals contacted by FTW, is that the = flimsy justification for invasion offered by the U.S., along with what = is perceived as successful international opposition leading to = vacillation by the administration, have encouraged attacks from some = quarters that have had minimal or no connections to Al Qaeda.=20 These events are reminiscent of a warning issued by Pentagon hawk, = Richard Perle, who stated in an Aug. 18 Washington Post story, "Timing = is everything when you do this. If you launched [a public campaign] too = far in advance and nothing followed, that would raise questions and fuel = a debate that would not be helpful to the administration...If you join = the debate now, but don't act for months, you pay a worse price." = Perle's prediction is coming true just two months after he made it. In spite of routine denials USAID has regularly been linked to the = Central Intelligence Agency and has reportedly served as a cover for CIA = operations. Jordan remains a particularly sensitive country for the U.S. = because of its geographic position between Israel and Iraq, its = perceived status as a U.S. ally, and the fact that as many as 6,000 U.S. = troops have been positioned in Jordan since late-August in anticipation = of the U.S. invasion. FTW reported on Aug. 21 that the total number of = U.S. troops, as reported by the Jordanian news agency Petra and other = Mid East news sources had topped 6,000 and included light armor, medical = detachments and Special Forces troops. An on-the-record eyewitness = statement confirmed visual sightings of U.S. troops in the country. [For additional coverage on troop deployments and war plans please = visit: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/082102_deployment.html.] Jordan, like many other countries in the region, has been sending = ambiguous signals about the role it will or will not play in the U.S. = invasion. These mixed and often changing positions, shifting like the = sands of the desert, clearly reflect the tectonic pressures that are = mounting in the region each day that an invasion is not executed. A = Reuters story on Aug. 12 indicated that Jordan was being considered as a = launch point for the Iraqi invasion at a time when the Jordanian = military was engaging in joint exercises with U.S. troops. However, a = July 10 Associated Press story indicated that Jordan would not = participate in any U.S.-led invasion. Amid repeated stories that the U.S. intends to "Balkanize" the region, = splitting Iraq and possibly Saudi Arabia into several kingdoms divided = between Hashemite, Sunni Arab, Kurdish and Shiite ethnic groups, = tensions between Muslim countries in the region have been steadily = mounting. [For more information: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/082102_saudi_arabia_1.html].=20 On Oct. 22 Reuters reported that a Jordanian journalist had been = sentenced to death in Qatar for allegedly spying for Jordan and = reporting on U.S. troop deployments in that country. Qatar is home to = the multi-billion-dollar, state-of-the-art Al Udeid air base. According = to numerous press reports and published photographs, Qatar is virtually = sinking under the weight of U.S. military equipment, including M1A2 = Abrams main battle tanks, which have been positioned there for the Iraqi = invasion. That move came after Jordan recalled its ambassador in August = from Doha, the Qatari capital, and closed the Amman offices of Al = Jazeera, the feisty Arab news organization based in Qatar. A COUP ATTEMPT IN QATAR? On Oct. 16 the Arabic News issued a story stating that reports from = Cairo and several Persian Gulf states had resulted in the Oct. 12 arrest = of "scores of Qatari army officers" after an attempted coup by = pro-Taliban elements against Qatari leader Sheikh Hamad bin Khaleifah = al-Thani. The coup was reportedly suppressed with the assistance of = "American personnel in civilian costumes." An Oct. 24 New York Times = story clearly stated the Qatari position. It carried the headline: "A = Tiny Gulf Kingdom Bets Its Stability on Support for U.S." Stories about = the massive Al-Udeid air base and its intended use as the headquarters = of the U.S. Central Command for the Iraqi invasion have been circulating = for months. On Sept. 12th, the Washington Post's Vernon Loeb reported = that Central Command had announced a plan to send 600 personnel in = November from Florida to Qatar for a readiness test of the headquarters = facility.=20 A Reuters story dated just 10 days after the reported coup attempt = stated that the planned exercise had been moved from November to an = unspecified date in December. While making no mention of the coup = attempt the story did state that, "The Gulf region is bristling with = U.S. troops and weaponry." Upon learning of the coup attempt, FTW made an immediate request to the = White House asking for comment. In a rare return call, which took place = within two hours, a spokesperson for the National Security Council = stated, "We [the NSC] are not even aware of a coup attempt. No comment." = A spokesman for the Department of Defense said, "We don't know anything = about any coup attempt, and U.S. forces were not involved." The subscription intelligence service Stratfor stated in an Oct. 24 = story that it received confirmation of the coup attempt from Qatari and = Russian intelligence sources. It also added some twists which indicate = the quicksand-like nature of Middle Eastern alliances. Translating from = the Egyptian daily al-Joumhoreyah, Stratfor reported that members of the = Qatari ruling family had been taken into custody and that that they had = recently expressed opposition to the regime's pro-U.S. policy. As it = turns out Sheikh al-Thani took power in a bloodless coup in 1995 from = his father who remains a good friend of Saudi Arabian elements that = oppose the invasion of Iraq.=20 Tensions between the two countries reached a high point in September = when Riyadh recalled its ambassador from Doha. Saudi Arabia remains the = ultimate ambiguity in its support for the U.S. invasion on a measure = equal with glaring recent contradictions in stated U.S. support for the = kingdom which contains 25 percent of all the oil on the planet. [For = additional information: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/082102_saudi_arabia_1.html]. = . Withdrawal of support for the U.S. invasion in Qatar would most likely = make the invasion of Iraq an impossibility. The support offered by other = Middle Eastern nations, already under intense pressure from their = populations, would likely evaporate completely. Even Turkey, a staunch = NATO ally has been strongly signaling its reservations in recent weeks, = and it is not capable of single-handedly hosting the invasion.=20 DIPLOMATIC POWER PLAYS DEEPEN CRISIS Moves by Russia, France and China to delay a U.N. vote favorable to the = U.S. plan have been extremely successful on the world stage. Prolonged = negotiations and a delayed vote in the U.N. Security Council on a = resolution needed by the Bush Administration to keep its fragile = alliance together are producing responses from the administration that = sound more like whining than leadership. Over the weekend, Chinese = Premier Jiang Zemin arrived late -- a major diplomatic snub -- for a = summit at President George W. Bush's Crawford, Texas ranch and failed to = give him the endorsement for action against Iraq that Bush so = desperately needs. This move apparently gave strength to continuing = opposition from France and Russia in the U.N. Security Council. And the backroom arm-twisting, carrot-offering, wheeling and dealing of = the administration to divide the spoils of an Iraqi conquest has also = failed to produce the desired outcome: a global blessing for the Empire = to do what it wants to do. [For additional information, please visit: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/101802_the_unseen.html.]=20 American major media, trying desperately to put a positive spin on what = is increasingly a major diplomatic defeat, continue to report that the = U.N. is making progress in getting what it wants. But each minute of = delay weakens the U.S. position economically, politically and = militarily. Today the president was seen almost whining that the U.S. = would act without U.N. approval if necessary even as CNN wrote, "The = U.S. game plan on Iraq was encountering significant Security Council = resistance." Bush's position today is on its face no different from what = he said in his speech to the U.N. Sept. 12, yet no action has been = taken. AT HOME AND ABROAD In the meantime major demonstrations took place on Oct. 26 all over the = United States and around the world protesting the U.S. invasion of Iraq. = In Washington, D.C. a crowd estimated by police at in excess of 100,000 = loudly protested the war on which the administration is betting all of = its political chips. In San Francisco an estimated 75,000 people turned = out while other large demonstrations were reported in cities all over = the country. Following on the heels of previous anti-war crowds of = 400,000 in London and more than 1 million in Italy, protestors filled = the streets in Berlin, Frankfurt and Amsterdam to establish that the = U.S. and the world are anything but united over this war. This is the first time in modern American history that there has been a = vocal anti-war movement before the war even started. In Brazil yesterday, former Marxist and Workers' Party candidate Luis = Inacio "Lula" da Silva scored a landslide victory with 61 percent of the = vote, becoming president of the largest democracy in South America. Da = Silva's victory, another political slap in the face to the Bush = Administration, follows on the heels of a second recent, failed coup = attempt against Venezuela's independent President Hugo Chavez, an often = vocal critic of many U.S. policies in South America. It is clear that global and domestic opposition to the invasion of Iraq = is growing. But it is not a given that these developments have rendered = the administration impotent or weakened its resolve. As FTW has been = saying consistently since the administration took office -- and = especially since 9-11 -- the degree of criminal, unconstitutional and = aggressive behavior by the administration only serves to guarantee that = its future moves will only be more illegal, more dangerous and more = costly of human lives... ... ... "We see the unhistorical and ahistorical character of bourgeois thought = most strikingly when we consider the problem of the present as a = historical problem." -George Lukacs ------=_NextPart_000_00BD_01C27F14.2199DB80 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

10/28/02

Wheels = Come Off U.S. War=20 Plans For Iraq.

Administration=20 Making Riskier, More Volatile Moves to Begin "All or Nothing" Gamble for = Iraqi=20 Oilfields. http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102802_wheels.html=

=B7       Reported Coup = Attempt in=20 Qatar Threatens Base
=B7       Worldwide = Attacks on U.S.=20 Interests
=B7       Massive=20 Domestic/International Protests
=B7       = U.N./Foreign Political = Opposition=20 Proves Effective


Wheels = Come Off U.S.=20 War Plans for Iraq

Administration=20 Making Riskier, More Volatile Moves to Begin “All or = Nothing” Gamble for Iraqi=20 Oilfields

by = Michael C.=20 Ruppert

[=A9 Copyright,=20 2000, From The Wilderness Publications,=20 www.fromthewilderness.com. All rights reserved. May be copied, = distributed or=20 posted on the Internet for non-profit purposes only.]

Oct. 28, 2002,=20 18:30 PST (FTW) -- = All over the world, both internationally and here at home, = the wheels=20 are coming off of the Bush Administration’s plans for the invasion = and=20 occupation of Iraq. And Bush Administration responses to recent events = appear to=20 be moving a tense international situation into a new phase where = chaotic,=20 scattered and increasingly bloody violence may spread risk to civilian=20 populations and the estimated 80,000 to 100,000 U.S. troops that have = been=20 forward-deployed in anticipation of the attacks for months. U.S. troop=20 deployments in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Kyrgyzstan,=20 Uzbekistan, Georgia, Djibouti, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan and a = Kurdish=20 controlled region of northern Iraq -- once offensive staging points or = strategic=20 postings -- are now becoming vulnerable defensive liabilities as world = sentiment=20 mounts against the U.S. invasion. Britain is also reported to have troop = deployments in Oman on the Southeast tip of the Arabian=20 Peninsula.

At = stake is a nation=20 which holds 11 percent of the world’s oil and which is one of only = two nations=20 capable of quickly increasing production in time to avert a major = economic=20 collapse for the U.S.

A = recently reported=20 coup attempt in Qatar, perhaps the most vital country to a successful = U.S.=20 invasion plan, has raised serious questions about whether the = administration can=20 afford to wait much longer without risking the entire collapse of both = its=20 prestige and a plan which has recently been shown to be years in the=20 making.

The=20 assassination today of the head of the U.S. Agency for International = Development=20 (USAID) in Amman, Jordan follows on the heels of recent attacks in = Kuwait, the=20 Philippines, South Korea, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bali, most of which = have=20 been reportedly linked to terrorist organizations sympathetic with Osama = bin=20 Laden’s Al Qaeda network. An interpretation not offered by the = administration,=20 but which has been voiced by some Islamic foreign nationals contacted=20 by FTW, is that=20 the flimsy justification for invasion offered by the U.S., along with = what is=20 perceived as successful international opposition leading to vacillation = by the=20 administration, have encouraged attacks from some quarters that have had = minimal=20 or no connections to Al Qaeda.

These events are=20 reminiscent of a warning issued by Pentagon hawk, Richard Perle, who = stated in=20 an Aug. 18 Washington Post story, "Timing is = everything=20 when you do this. If you launched [a public campaign] too far in advance = and=20 nothing followed, that would raise questions and fuel a debate that = would not be=20 helpful to the administration...If you join the debate now, but don't = act for=20 months, you pay a worse price." Perle’s = prediction is=20 coming true just two months after he made it.

In spite of=20 routine denials USAID has regularly been linked to the Central = Intelligence=20 Agency and has reportedly served as a cover for CIA operations. Jordan = remains a=20 particularly sensitive country for the U.S. because of its geographic = position=20 between Israel and Iraq, its perceived status as a U.S. ally, and the = fact that=20 as many as 6,000 U.S. troops have been positioned in Jordan since = late-August in=20 anticipation of the U.S. invasion.=20 FTW reported on Aug. 21 that the total = number of=20 U.S. troops, as reported by the Jordanian news agency Petra and other = Mid East=20 news sources had topped 6,000 and included light armor, medical = detachments and=20 Special Forces troops. An on-the-record eyewitness statement confirmed = visual=20 sightings of U.S. troops in the country.

[For additional=20 coverage on troop deployments and war plans please visit:

 http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/082102_deployment.html.]

Jordan, like many=20 other countries in the region, has been sending ambiguous signals about = the role=20 it will or will not play in the U.S. invasion. These mixed and often = changing=20 positions, shifting like the sands of the desert, clearly reflect the = tectonic=20 pressures that are mounting in the region each day that an invasion is = not=20 executed. A Reuters story on Aug. 12 indicated that Jordan was being = considered=20 as a launch point for the Iraqi invasion at a time when the Jordanian = military=20 was engaging in joint exercises with U.S. troops. However, a July 10 = Associated=20 Press story indicated that Jordan would not participate in any U.S.-led=20 invasion.

Amid repeated=20 stories that the U.S. intends to “Balkanize” the region, = splitting Iraq and=20 possibly Saudi Arabia into several kingdoms divided between Hashemite, = Sunni=20 Arab, Kurdish and Shiite ethnic groups, tensions between Muslim = countries in the=20 region have been steadily mounting. [For more information:

 http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/082102_saudi_arabia_1.= html].=20

On = Oct. 22 Reuters=20 reported that a Jordanian journalist had been sentenced to death in = Qatar for=20 allegedly spying for Jordan and reporting on U.S. troop deployments in = that=20 country. Qatar is home to the multi-billion-dollar, state-of-the-art Al = Udeid=20 air base. According to numerous press reports and published photographs, = Qatar=20 is virtually sinking under the weight of U.S. military equipment, = including M1A2=20 Abrams main battle tanks, which have been positioned there for the Iraqi = invasion. That move came after Jordan recalled its ambassador in August = from=20 Doha, the Qatari capital, and closed the Amman offices of Al Jazeera, = the feisty=20 Arab news organization based in Qatar.

A = COUP ATTEMPT IN=20 QATAR?

On Oct.=20 16 the Arabic News issued a story stating that = reports=20 from Cairo and several Persian Gulf states had resulted in = the Oct. 12 arrest of “scores of Qatari army officers” = after an attempted=20 coup by pro-Taliban elements=20 against Qatari leader Sheikh Hamad bin Khaleifah al-Thani. The coup was reportedly = suppressed with the=20 assistance of “American personnel in civilian = costumes.”=20 An Oct. 24 New York Times story=20 clearly stated the Qatari position. It carried the=20 headline: “A = Tiny Gulf Kingdom=20 Bets Its Stability on Support for U.S.” = Stories about=20 the massive Al-Udeid air base and its intended use as the headquarters = of the=20 U.S. Central Command for the Iraqi invasion have been circulating for = months. On=20 Sept. 12th, the Washington Post’s Vernon Loeb reported that = Central Command had=20 announced a plan to send 600 personnel in November from Florida to Qatar = for a=20 readiness test of the headquarters facility.

A = Reuters story dated=20 just 10 days after the reported coup attempt stated that the planned = exercise=20 had been moved from November to an unspecified date in December. While = making no=20 mention of the coup attempt the story did state that, “The Gulf = region is=20 bristling with U.S. troops and weaponry…”

Upon learning of=20 the coup attempt, = FTW made an immediate request to the White House asking for = comment. In=20 a rare return call, which took place within two hours, a spokesperson = for the=20 National Security Council stated, “We [the NSC] are not even aware = of a coup=20 attempt. No comment.” A spokesman for the Department of Defense = said, “We don’t=20 know anything about any coup attempt, and U.S. forces were not=20 involved.”

The = subscription=20 intelligence service Stratfor stated in an Oct. 24 story that it = received=20 confirmation of the coup attempt from Qatari and Russian intelligence = sources.=20 It also added some twists which indicate the quicksand-like nature of = Middle=20 Eastern alliances. Translating from the Egyptian daily al-Joumhoreyah, = Stratfor=20 reported that members of the Qatari ruling family had been taken into = custody=20 and that that they had recently expressed opposition to the = regime’s pro-U.S.=20 policy. As it turns out Sheikh al-Thani took power in a bloodless coup = in 1995=20 from his father who remains a good friend of Saudi Arabian elements that = oppose=20 the invasion of Iraq.

Tensions between the=20 two countries reached a high point in September when Riyadh recalled its = ambassador from Doha. Saudi Arabia remains the ultimate ambiguity in its = support=20 for the U.S. invasion on a measure equal with glaring recent = contradictions in=20 stated U.S. support for the kingdom which contains 25 percent of all the = oil on=20 the planet. [For additional information:

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/082102_saudi_arabia_1.= html].=20        .

Withdrawal of support=20 for the U.S. invasion in Qatar would most likely make the invasion of = Iraq an=20 impossibility. The support offered by other Middle Eastern nations, = already=20 under intense pressure from their populations, would likely evaporate=20 completely. Even Turkey, a staunch NATO ally has been strongly signaling = its=20 reservations in recent weeks, and it is not capable of single-handedly = hosting=20 the invasion.

DIPLOMATIC POWER=20 PLAYS DEEPEN CRISIS

Moves = by Russia,=20 France and China to delay a U.N. vote favorable to the U.S. plan have = been=20 extremely successful on the world stage. Prolonged negotiations and a = delayed=20 vote in the U.N. Security Council on a resolution needed by the Bush=20 Administration to keep its fragile alliance together are producing = responses=20 from the administration that sound more like whining than leadership. = Over the=20 weekend, Chinese Premier Jiang Zemin arrived late -- a major diplomatic = snub --=20 for a summit at President George W. Bush’s Crawford, Texas ranch = and failed to=20 give him the endorsement for action against Iraq that Bush so = desperately needs.=20 This move apparently gave strength to continuing opposition from France = and=20 Russia in the U.N. Security Council.

And = the backroom=20 arm-twisting, carrot-offering, wheeling and dealing of the = administration to=20 divide the spoils of an Iraqi conquest has also failed to produce the = desired=20 outcome: a global blessing for the Empire to do what it wants to do. = [For=20 additional information, please visit:

 http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/101802_the_unseen.html= .]

American major=20 media, trying desperately to put a positive spin on what is increasingly = a major=20 diplomatic defeat, continue to report that the U.N. is making progress = in=20 getting what it wants. But each minute of delay weakens the U.S. = position=20 economically, politically and militarily. Today the president was seen = almost=20 whining that the U.S. would act without U.N. approval if necessary even = as CNN=20 wrote, “The U.S. = game plan on Iraq=20 was encountering significant Security Council = resistance.” Bush’s position today is on its face no different from what = he said in=20 his speech to the U.N. Sept. 12, yet no action has = been=20 taken.

AT HOME=20 AND ABROAD

In the meantime major demonstrations=20 took place on Oct. 26 all=20 over the United States and around the world protesting the U.S. invasion = of=20 Iraq. In Washington, D.C. a crowd estimated by police=20 at in excess of 100,000 loudly protested the war on=20 which the administration is betting all of its political = chips. In San Francisco an estimated 75,000 people turned out = while=20 other large demonstrations were reported in cities all over the = country.=20 Following on the heels of previous anti-war crowds = of=20 400,000 in London and more than 1 million in Italy, protestors filled the streets in = Berlin,=20 Frankfurt and Amsterdam to establish that the U.S. and the world are = anything but=20 united over this = war.

This is the first time in = modern=20 American history that there has been a vocal anti-war movement = before=20 the war even started.

In Brazil = yesterday, former=20 Marxist and Workers’ Party candidate = Luis Inacio “Lula” da=20 Silva scored a landslide = victory with 61 percent of the = vote,=20 becoming president of the largest democracy in South America. Da=20 Silva’s = victory, another=20 political slap in the face to the Bush = Administration, follows on the heels of a second = recent, failed coup attempt = against=20 Venezuela’s independent=20 President Hugo Chavez, an=20 often vocal critic of many U.S. policies in = South=20 America.

It is clear = that global and=20 domestic opposition to the invasion of Iraq is growing. But it is not a = given=20 that these developments have rendered the administration impotent or=20 weakened its resolve. As FTW has been saying consistently since = the=20 administration took office=20 -- and especially since 9-11 -- the degree = of=20 criminal, unconstitutional and aggressive behavior by the administration = only=20 serves to guarantee that its future moves = will only=20 be more illegal, more dangerous and more = costly of=20 human lives... ... ...

 
"We see the unhistorical and = ahistorical character=20 of bourgeois thought most strikingly when we consider the problem of the = present=20 as a historical problem."
 
-George = Lukacs
------=_NextPart_000_00BD_01C27F14.2199DB80-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 06:17:39 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:17:39 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WFX-0005V0-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:17:39 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WFF-0000Lw-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:17:21 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WEk-0000Le-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:16:50 -0700 Received: from modem-24.wolf.dialup.pol.co.uk ([81.76.128.24] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 186WEh-0003m8-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 13:16:47 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] Full Spectrum Entropy: Wheels off... Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 In-Reply-To: <00c001c27f3e$0f26dbe0$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> Importance: Normal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 13:16:16 -0000 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 13:16:16 -0000 I've been gritting my teeth and saying for a while now that it ain't gonna happen. I have the uneasy feeling that just saying it out loud is tempting fate--not only betraying ANSWER and NION who need popular anxiety to keep the campaign going, and but in some weird yogic way it'll trigger the cruise missiles and before the words are out of my mouth I'll be proven wrong. But fwiw, I don't think Bush is up for it any more; yes the wheels have come off so what we need to do know is to reorient ourselves to a different world than the one we are mostly still expecting: a world, in short, where Saddam will be still in power, but Bush may not be and Perle and Rumsefeld the other Dark Forces definitely will be out. Mark -----Original Message----- From: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu [mailto:a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu]On Behalf Of bon moun Sent: 29 October 2002 11:27 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Subject: [A-List] Full Spectrum Entropy: Wheels off... 10/28/02 Wheels Come Off U.S. War Plans For Iraq. Administration Making Riskier, More Volatile Moves to Begin "All or Nothing" Gamble for Iraqi Oilfields. http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102802_wheels.html · Reported Coup Attempt in Qatar Threatens Base · Worldwide Attacks on U.S. Interests · Massive Domestic/International Protests · U.N./Foreign Political Opposition Proves Effective From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 06:36:20 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:36:20 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WXQ-0005zB-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:36:08 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WX8-0000VM-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:35:50 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WW0-0000V1-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:34:40 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9TDYbc06638 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:34:37 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9TDYaA06566 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:34:36 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:36:26 +0200 Message-ID: <008101c27f4f$bb8e3c00$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: References: <3DBDEF9E@webmail.colostate.edu> Subject: Re: [A-List] Russia: Chechen hacker alert X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 13:36:26.0546 (UTC) FILETIME=[2DFCF920:01C27F50] Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:33:14 +0200 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:33:14 +0200 Steve writes: If that is what their "expert" is coming up with, banks are quite safe. It's essentially an oxymoron to use expert with backorifice in the same sentence which suggests this article is patently false. ------- Is it the article that is false or its source? I would opt for the latter, since "Ian Bruce" is merely a conduit, a urinal for intelligence services from the CIA to MI6 to, apparently, the FSB, which must be counted as having a strong interest in playing up the Chechen threat to all life as we know it, including, most importantly of course, the financial system. Michael From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 06:41:17 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:41:17 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WcI-00069Q-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:41:10 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Wbx-0000ZW-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:40:49 -0700 Received: from cpimssmtpu03.email.msn.com ([207.46.181.79]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WaP-0000Xx-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:39:13 -0700 Received: from igrushkii ([12.64.120.225]) by cpimssmtpu03.email.msn.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.4617); Tue, 29 Oct 2002 05:37:16 -0800 Message-ID: <012f01c27f50$5cc4ae60$0100a8c0@igrushkii> From: "Annewilliamson" To: References: Subject: [A-List] US Legitimacy: 535 Thieves MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4807.1700 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4807.1700 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 13:37:17.0328 (UTC) FILETIME=[4C41B100:01C27F50] Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Reply-To: "Annewilliamson" List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:35:28 -0500 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:35:28 -0500 October 28, 2002 Sanders Research Associates Chris Sanders The 535 Thieves. .or the greatest deliberative body in the world? If we confine ourselves to the narrowest scientific contexts while trying to decide the critical issues of the moment, we are very likely to go astray. >From David Ehrenfeld, "Unethical Contexts for Ethical Questions, " a lecture at Yale University December 2001, quoted in Harper's Magazine, October 2002. The incompleteness of economics comes from a loss of vision of social totality, a defect reinforced by the present-day division of academic labor. William K. Tabb, Reconstructing Political Economy, Routledge, 1999, p.15 For people of modest situation who have once risen above that level, it is unendurable to fall back into it even momentarily. Adolf Hitler - quoted in Guerin, Fascism and Big Business, 1973 Pathfinder Press, p 47 Hotel California The US trade deficit hit a new high last month. At over $38 billion, it is fast approaching an annualised level of nearly 5% of GDP. To Assistant Treasury Secretary Richard Clarida writing in the Financial times of October 22, this is just evidence of a growth deficit elsewhere in the world. "Nothing to see here. Just move along," says the tough financial traffic cop. Clarida adopts the tired tone of the much imposed upon parent, sincerely "hoping" that the rest of the world can get its act together. To Clarida, foreigners invest in America because it offers more safety and higher returns. On the other hand, he says the cost of servicing its huge net foreign debt position is very low for America because it earns more on its investments overseas than foreigners earn in the supposedly more dynamic American economy. There is something not quite right with this view of things. If the US is more dynamic and more productive than other industrial countries, you would think that foreign investors would earn more from their American investments than the Americans earn from their foreign investments. Of course what Clarida neglected to say is that the US as a whole is able to settle its external liabilities using unsecured paper, that is to say dollars. While it is true that foreigners can invest that paper in other US assets, ultimately their earnings too are simply denominated in more of the same paper. It is reminiscent of "payment-in-kind" bonds that were popular with junk issuers in the go-go years of the late 80s. Instead of cash, you received more bonds in settlement of coupon obligations. The world monetary system based on dollar reserves is just like that. It is the ultimate Hotel California: you can check in but you can never check out. Stale ideas from yesterday's men. Clarida's arguments are old hat. American Treasury officials have been saying the same thing, using the same words, for decades. To our ear it is sounding rather brittle, not least because it is such manifest nonsense, and overuse suggests that there really are not any new ideas in Washington. Washington does what Washington knows how to do, and it is highly unlikely that having made so much money out of running international rackets for the last fifty years that it is going to stop now. This is ultimately why it is so likely that whatever anyone else thinks or tries to do about it that the US is set on invading Iraq. By administering Iraqi oil production the US will remove any serious attempt to do anything that might "destabilise" the "system" such as denominating oil sales in euros, for instance. Ironically the most destabilising component in the system is the axle on which everything else turns: the US itself. There is a good reason for this. The economic foundation on which modern American power rests is not, as the official line would have us think, free markets, competition and law. It is rather based on cartels, coercion, and gaming. These two models differ considerably. The former implies consensual and decentralised forms of decision-making, decentralised ownership and production, and the rule of law. The latter implies centralised decision processes, concentrated ownership and capital, and a law of rules. .who grab for more even as what they have slips away The latter set of characteristics is typical of military and authoritarian societies. The United States economy has operated for more than four decades with a heavily militarised industrial architecture. During that period the difficulty of competing with the subsidised militarised sectors has driven civilian manufacturing and production out of industry after industry. This has resulted in the military sector increasing in relative importance. While this was for many years a hotly debated development, the debate has cooled, or even been effectively censored. This should not come as too much of a surprise. Since the Korean War, the US has maintained a military force structure of well over a million men and women, even without national conscription. To the uniformed services one must add the five million or so workers in those companies that comprise the industrial base of the military procurement system and the government employees who supervise them. This represents some 4% of the entire civilian labour force, and a considerably larger proportion compared to America's steadily shrinking manufacturing employment base. This is a sizeable political constituency. But perhaps even more important in the long run, the socialisation of workers over decades to the habits of work in a cost-plus and non-competitive (in the economic sense of the term) economy selects habits and modes of behaviour that work in that environment. Once gone, other skills and ways of thinking about problems are hard to recover. In his book After Capitalism, Seymour Melman of Columbia University points out one of the tangible consequences of this: a relentless rise in the proportion of workers not involved in the production process. In 1940 the ratio of "administrative" workers to production workers was 42:100. As a matter of interest, by the time the soviet Union collapsed, its ratio of administration workers to production workers had reached 219:100. Theft is still theft, whatever you call it. If you are sceptical about the relevance of all this, consider: in the twenty years to 2000, the ratio of senior executive compensation to employees' compensation rose from 42:1 to 531:1. As Jeff Gates of the Shared Capitalism Institute points out in an as yet unpublished paper, Legalised Looting, JP Morgan himself thought that a ratio of 20:1 was the maximum sustainable gap between management and workers. Morgan should have known. He might have been one of the most powerful men in history, but he understood productivity and leadership. Today's American leaders either understand neither or, as I am inclined to think, have simply given up on the country that has served them so well. Gates' paper puts dry statistics to something that everyone ought to understand. The money funding this stupefying transfer of wealth is the pensions of the taxpayers who have subsidised it through retirement tax subsidies of $110 billion annually. Pension funds under management in the American economy have grown in consequence from $1.9 trillion in 1980 to $17 trillion twenty years on. This amounts to an asset allocation shift of truly epic proportions. Every trader understands something that apparently neither Alan Greenspan nor Larry Summers will admit: financial asset prices are set by the flow of money, not by an abstract concept like productivity. The turgid Greenspan's theorising a "step change" in productivity is simply propaganda masquerading as economics. Once this is clear, governance of the US political economy is much easier to understand. Americans' 401-K pension plans are commonly understood to exist to finance the retirement of the beneficial owner, that is to say workers. On paper and in law this is certainly the case. But more important is that they provide the bid for the shares and options of the executives who run the companies in which those retirement plans are invested. Watering stock makes no sense if you have no exit. Apologists argue that American democracy is more egalitarian precisely because workers share in the ownership of the productive base of the economy through their pension plans and employee stock option plans. This is hard to agree with. Neither confers any control over the destiny of the firm. The steady loss in manufacturing jobs over the last ten years is hard to explain in terms of employee ownership. Would employees with any control have voted themselves out of jobs? Objectively, it is hard to see this situation as much different than a form of embezzlement, which is to say theft. It may also tempt one to conclude that if the plebs are stupid enough to allow this to be done to them, then they deserve it. Hitler, quoted above in Guerin's classic on authoritarian corporatism, had a pretty jaundiced view of the public. Whether or not you think that the public "deserves" it, there is little doubt that the disappearance of retirement value into the pockets of a handful of individuals is a major political issue. It amounts to nothing more than robbing the many of their future so that the few can enjoy the proceeds in the present. The political consequences of such disappointment are unlikely to be small. However, the little guy has few means of recourse. We have observed before how little chance a sitting congressman or senator has of losing his of her seat in open election. Money controls the electoral process, and declining rates of voter participation betray the truth. The electorate has a pretty good idea of how much the political process is worth. From the point of view of voters, the answer is clearly, "not much." Déjà vu: another convenient political plane crash The death last Friday of Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone along with his family and several staff members in a plane crash illustrates the point. Wellstone was fighting a tough, close race. His opponent, Norm Coleman, is said to have been handpicked by Cheney and Bush to take on the liberal Wellstone. Wellstone earned himself a place in history by daring to be the only Democratic senator running for re-election to vote against empowering Bush to make war on Iraq. Behind in the polls before this, he moved into the lead in the wake of the Senate's Iraq vote. How dangerous it is to adopt a political position at odds with the system. Especially if it looks as though it might win you votes. It has been said of America that you can say anything you want as long as no one pays any attention. Clearly, Minnesota's voters were paying attention to Paul Wellstone. His death is eerily similar to another Democratic senate candidate, Mel Carnahan, who was killed in a plane crash in Missouri during the final heat of his campaign against now Attorney General John Ashcroft. As it happened Ashcroft couldn't manage to defeat Carnahan even in death. Carnahan's wife Jean went on in the final days of the 2000 campaign to defeat him. It is hard to escape the feeling that Ashcroft is taking it out on the rest of us now that he runs the Justice Department. Market people tend to be uncomfortable with this kind of analysis and for good reason. They tend to prefer to analyse situations objectively and clinically, even to the extreme of inventing "objective" and "clinical" technical analysis to do so. Politics, to say nothing of ideology, is on the contrary highly subjective, and it is impossible to divorce completely the observer from the matter under observation. But there is a way out of this dilemma, by looking at the international economy as one of the components, or expressions if you will, of a larger system. This used to be the norm at least until a hundred years ago when the study of the "economy" half of political economy was mathematised and segregated as a specialisation in its own right. Today it ought to be obvious, but apparently is not, that one of the biggest problems in understanding the economy is the discipline of economics itself. Mechanistic, self-referential, even tautological, mainstream economic thinking has increasingly little to do with the life of the societies about which it is ostensibly concerned. Lula wins. The Brazilian elections are a case in point. Wall Street and American government economists, dismayed by the prospect of a da Silva victory have predicted inflation, public sector default, and worse. The currency market has delivered a stunning devaluation of the real. But the truth is as always more nuanced. Devaluation is in fact very welcome. Brazil's terms of trade have improved tremendously and quickly. The country has sufficient hard currency reserves to service its public sector foreign currency debt through 2004. With a floating currency, there is no likelihood of default on its real obligations. The central bank is under no obligation to finance capital flight, and is perfectly capable, legally and institutionally, of purchasing and rolling over the government's debt on a day-to-day basis if necessary. However, the typical American or European prescription is for an appreciation of the real to "reduce dollar denominated debt pressures." This should be followed by stringent disinflation to "curb Real-denominated debt pressures." On top of this, real growth of 3% per annum or more needs to be achieved "to turn around the underlying negative debt dynamics." (These quotes are from Currency Weakness in Perspective, a publication of ING Financial Markets, 22 October.) A more destabilising policy mix could scarcely be imagined. Could that be what is really wanted? Why Brazil should not earn the foreign currency it needs rather than shackling itself to an economic policy that virtually imposes dependence on the IMF and World Bank is beyond us, unless shackles are what are desired. The tiresome New World Order mantra about democracy is nothing more than a slogan, just as it has been in Asia, the Balkans and Eastern Europe. Democracy is fine, as long as only acceptable candidates win. Was Paul Wellstone an unacceptable candidate? From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 06:51:11 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:51:11 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Wlr-0006O2-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:51:03 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Wla-0000dj-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:50:46 -0700 Received: from granger.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.148]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WkM-0000dP-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:49:30 -0700 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by granger.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 186WkL-0007Dr-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:49:29 -0500 Message-ID: <013601c27f51$fb762e20$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: References: Subject: Re: [A-List] Full Spectrum Entropy: Wheels off... MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:49:14 -0500 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:49:14 -0500 ----- Original Message ----- From: "Mark Jones" To: Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 8:16 AM Subject: RE: [A-List] Full Spectrum Entropy: Wheels off... > I've been gritting my teeth and saying for a while now that it ain't gonna > happen. I have the uneasy feeling that just saying it out loud is tempting > fate--not only betraying ANSWER and NION who need popular anxiety to keep > the campaign going, and but in some weird yogic way it'll trigger the cruise > missiles and before the words are out of my mouth I'll be proven wrong. But > fwiw, I don't think Bush is up for it any more; yes the wheels have come off > so what we need to do know is to reorient ourselves to a different world > than the one we are mostly still expecting: a world, in short, where Saddam > will be still in power, but Bush may not be and Perle and Rumsefeld the > other Dark Forces definitely will be out. > > Mark My own perversely optimistic sense of all this is that the Bushfeld Junta has done wonders for delegitimizing the US state just in advance of a deep and inexorable economic crisis. There is hope and anxiety attached to this broad prognostication... the left is less disorganized than it used to be, but still way behind the power curve. The whacko right, however, has been gaining ground for some time now, and they are armed to the teeth. ANSWER and NIOC, et al, are important... rather, the popular forces they represent... for the organizing. I got linked with at least three more potentially important allies in DC, as I'm sure everyone did. An organization's sense of its own power is intangible, but critical, in actualy changing the relations of power. [Also working on a short piece - first in a series - that shows the potential for support for socialism within the US military... It's time we quit ignoring those workers in uniforms.] Cheers. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 06:53:12 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:53:12 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Wnr-0006Qb-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:53:07 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WnZ-0000en-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:52:49 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WfV-0000bE-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:44:29 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9TDiRp16112 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:44:27 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9TDiQA16048 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:44:26 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:46:16 +0200 Message-ID: <00e901c27f51$1b4b6680$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: References: <5.1.0.14.0.20021028235039.0263bf70@mail.telepac.pt> Subject: Re: [A-List] TFP interpela a Lula y Serra MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_00E6_01C27F61.DEC36DA0" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 13:46:16.0702 (UTC) FILETIME=[8DBFA1E0:01C27F51] Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:43:04 +0200 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:43:04 +0200 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_00E6_01C27F61.DEC36DA0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Jorge My apologies. We get a lot of stuff posted from Latin America by = non-members, including a lot of spam from Argentina for some reason. Are = Argentinian ISPs being used to sabotage left lists, or are they simply = offering their services to anyone in order to stay afloat? Anyway, usually I make a judgment about the content of something before = I decide to erase it or forward it. Because this looked like a serious = commentary I assumed it would be of interest. Maybe there is a case for = a critical analysis of such material. I often forward material to the = list, not because I agree with it, but because of what it reveals about = thought processes within the state and influential opinion-forming = circles. Perhaps, however, this particular example is just too far out = and so I should just erase anything we get from TFP in the future. Thanks for the advice, Michael ------=_NextPart_000_00E6_01C27F61.DEC36DA0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Jorge
 
My apologies. We get a lot of stuff = posted from=20 Latin America by non-members, including a lot of spam from Argentina for = some=20 reason. Are Argentinian ISPs being used to sabotage left lists, or are = they=20 simply offering their services to anyone in order to stay = afloat?
 
Anyway, usually I make a judgment about = the content=20 of something before I decide to erase it or forward it. Because this = looked like=20 a serious commentary I assumed it would be of interest. Maybe there is a = case=20 for a critical analysis of such material. I often forward material to = the list,=20 not because I agree with it, but because of what it reveals about = thought=20 processes within the state and influential opinion-forming circles. = Perhaps,=20 however, this particular example is just too far out and so I should = just erase=20 anything we get from TFP in the future.
 
Thanks for the advice,
 
Michael
------=_NextPart_000_00E6_01C27F61.DEC36DA0-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 07:02:12 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:02:12 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WwX-0006Wp-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:02:05 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WwI-0000jC-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:01:50 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WvD-0000iv-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:00:43 -0700 Received: from modem-24.wolf.dialup.pol.co.uk ([81.76.128.24] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 186Wv9-0002OG-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:00:40 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] Full Spectrum Entropy: Wheels off... Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 In-Reply-To: <013601c27f51$fb762e20$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> Importance: Normal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:00:08 -0000 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:00:08 -0000 > > It's time we > quit ignoring those workers in uniforms.] > Amen to that. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 07:06:13 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:06:13 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X0S-0006XU-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:06:08 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X0B-0000kO-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:05:51 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Wyo-0000k2-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:04:26 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9TE4Oi03606 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:04:24 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9TE4MA03542 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:04:23 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:06:13 +0200 Message-ID: <016901c27f53$e4b86ca0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 14:06:13.0639 (UTC) FILETIME=[572DB970:01C27F54] Subject: [A-List] Russia: chemical weapons alert Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:03:01 +0200 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:03:01 +0200 Silence surrounds the deadly saviour IAN BRUCE and KEITH SINCLAIR The Herald, 29 October 2002 RUSSIA was stubbornly refusing to tell the world yesterday what kind of gas killed at least 115 hostages in the Moscow theatre siege. The substance was pumped into the theatre by special forces to overcome 50 heavily-armed Chechen terrorists. The agent, which was used without telling health authorities, allowed the elite troops to knock out and shoot dead the guerrillas - who had been holding 750 people hostage since last Wednesday. However, it also killed all but two of the 117 hostages who died in the siege. Initial relief that accompanied the first reports that perhaps only 10 hostages in the theatre had died was replaced by doubts about the unnamed gas, and criticism of the operation, as the death toll mounted. "They poisoned us like cockroaches," a woman quoted her daughter as saying in the Kommersant newspaper. Russia declined to divulge the substance even to medical workers treating the hostages, raising further doubts about its legality and bringing sharp criticism. Vietnam war One doctor claimed countless lives could have been saved and expressed frustration at the lack of information. "Those who died had swallowed their vomit or their tongue or their hearts had stopped," he said. "If only we had known beforehand. If they had told us that we would be getting large numbers who had lost consciousness or heart failure, it might have been a bit different." America claimed last night that doctors from an unidentified Western embassy in Moscow had examined some of the hostages and concluded that the agent they were exposed to was "consistent" with an opiate rather than a nerve agent. However, there was also speculation that the deadly gas was a nerve gas created by the Americans in the 1950s and first used in the Vietnam war. Major-General William Creasey, chief of the US Army's chemical corps, waxed lyrical in the 1950s about a new kind of mind-bending weapon which would "revolutionise warfare." He dreamed of aircraft and helicopters swooping down over frontlines to release what he described as hallucinogenic "madness gas" to sap America's enemies of the will to resist. The compound he was describing was quinuclidynil benzilate, or BZ for short, an easily dispersed incapacitating agent which could reduce the toughest veteran "grunt" to semi-consciousness in seconds. The drug, whose effects are similar to those reported by some of survivors of the Moscow siege, works by inhibiting the chemical which transmits messages from the brain. The results include headaches, dizziness, total disorientation, loss of muscle control, and hallucinations. Depending on the strength of the dosage, the effects could last from three days to six weeks, during which the victim is "completely out of touch with his environment", according to Dr Van Sim, formerly chief of research at the US Army's Edgewood arsenal experimental centre. BZ was adapted to an aerosol and used in grenades, bombs and shells for clearing buildings and bunker complexes. It was first used in action during the Vietnam war to attack the warren of tunnels built by the Vietcong across the Mekong delta to protect them from bombardment. Clinical trials of BZ continued until 1975 and 2800 military volunteers were exposed to its effects. Some later claimed that what they called "the Pentagon's people zapper" had a permanent psychological effect on their behaviour. An overdoze could be fatal. Robert Bowen, an air force guinea pig, said the concentrated drug induced feelings of temporary insanity and that those exposed to it became totally divorced from reality. He cites the example of one paratrooper he witnessed taking a shower in full combat gear while smoking a cigar. Most of the crowd control drugs tested by the US military were rejects deemed commercially useless by the pharmaceutical industry because of unwanted side effects. BZ was a gift from Hoffman-La Roche's New Jersey laboratories in the late 1950s. The Chemical Weapons Convention prohibits the use of all toxic agents, except for law enforcement, medical or scientific research, and protection against chemical weapons. Russia has the world's largest stockpile of chemical weapons, about 40,000 tons compared with 30,000 for the US. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 07:08:09 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:08:09 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X2M-0006Xj-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:08:06 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X24-0000la-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:07:48 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X0X-0000kq-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:06:13 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9TE6CK05837 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:06:12 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9TE6BA05774 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:06:11 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:08:01 +0200 Message-ID: <017101c27f54$253f96e0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 14:08:01.0889 (UTC) FILETIME=[97B35D10:01C27F54] Subject: [A-List] UK labour militancy: ambulance workers Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:04:49 +0200 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:04:49 +0200 Ambulance staff vote for action BILLY BRIGGS The Herald, 29 October 2002 AMBULANCE staff in Scotland have backed industrial action over a 5% pay claim, their union said yesterday. Although the Transport and General Workers' Union said members supported taking measures short of strike action, a "significant number" of those balloted were ready to strike. The TGWU, the largest sing le union representing workers in all sections of the Scottish Ambulance Service - including paramedics, technicians, administration and control staff - has expressed concern on a number of occasions over the slow progress of pay negotiations. It has now called for urgent talks with management. Jimmy Farrelly, the union's senior regional organiser in Scotland, said: "Over 78% of our members have voted for action short of a strike action and almost 45% were prepared to go as far as strike action. "This clearly demonstrates the strength of feeling among the workforce and we will now be calling upon the Scottish Ambulance Service to enter into urgent discussions with the trade unions to seek a just settlement of the pay issues." An SAS paramedic can earn up to £21,393 and an ambulance technician earns about £19,500 for a 42-hour week. The unions claim salaries are 30% lower than the average non-manual workers' pay. Pay talks began in March, but broke down in September when crews rejected a final offer of 3.6%. Any action taken by ambulance staff could coincide with a strike by firefighters. Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP's shadow health minister, said the development was deeply worrying. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 07:09:14 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:09:14 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X3L-0006bT-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:09:07 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X33-0000oQ-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:08:49 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X1l-0000lR-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:07:29 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9TE7O706855 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:07:24 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9TE7LA06731 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:07:22 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:09:10 +0200 Message-ID: <017901c27f54$4e3d0f00$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 14:09:10.0702 (UTC) FILETIME=[C0B764E0:01C27F54] Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Iraq, Yugoslavia Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:05:58 +0200 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:05:58 +0200 Yugoslavs 'helped Iraq develop cruise missile' IAN BRUCE The Herald: 29 October 2002 STATE-OWNED Yugoslav defence companies have spent two years helping Iraq to develop a long-range cruise missile capable of striking any country in the Middle East or southern Europe, according to the US state department. Washington has now delivered a diplomatic warning to Belgrade to crack down on Serb scientists employed by Yugoimport, the national armaments' conglomerate, known to be working on a turbojet engine for the missile. A number of technicians have made repeated visits to Baghdad since early 2001 after concluding a contract with an Iraqi front company called Al Fatah to design and build a weapon that could deliver a high explosive, chemical or biological payload with pinpoint accuracy. Until now, Iraq had access only to outdated ballistic guidance systems for its notoriously inaccurate Scud missiles. US sources say the plot to produce a cruise missile was hatched last year between former Serb military officers who now run defence companies in Yugoslavia and Bosnia, and an Iraqi trading firm. Although the contract was brokered with representatives of Yugoimport, smaller companies named as Brunner, Infinity, GVS and Temex and Interdeal have since collaborated on development of the missile's engine and propulsion system. Brunner is also alleged to have helped Libya with weapons technology. Yugoslavian authorities have ordered the closure of Yugoimport's Baghdad office and formed a commission to investigate US claims of breaches of the UN arms embargo imposed after the 1991 Gulf War. The Pentagon, meanwhile, has drawn up plans to mobilise more than 260,000 reservist "weekend warriors" to help defend America against terrorist attacks if a US-led invasion of Iraq goes ahead. Although fewer regular front-line soldiers are likely to be used in any direct assault, part-timers would guard nuclear plants, defence factories and military bases in the US and abroad. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 07:11:17 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:11:17 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X5M-0006dj-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:11:12 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X4w-0000pW-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:10:46 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X3r-0000oy-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:09:40 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9TE9c810434 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:09:38 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9TE9bA10372 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:09:37 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:11:28 +0200 Message-ID: <018101c27f54$a01e0ea0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 14:11:28.0077 (UTC) FILETIME=[129927D0:01C27F55] Subject: [A-List] New economy bull: cooking the books Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:08:15 +0200 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:08:15 +0200 Further to our recent discussions concerning the reliability of official statistics, when, despite historically low unemployment (officially) one in five UK children grow up in poverty.... True level of joblessness 'is three time the official figure' CAMERON SIMPSON The Herald, 29 October 2002 REAL unemployment in Scotland is running at 360,000, or 13%, compared with the official rate of just 115,000, according to a report released today. Glasgow has the highest rate, at 22%, it claims, followed by West Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire and Clackmannanshire, all at 19%. The Real Level of Unemployment 2002 - which exposes the unemployed "hidden" by the official figures - was compiled by researchers at Sheffield Hallam and Warwick universities. It also challenges official claims that unemployment is now below one million in Britain, arguing that the real level is about 2.8 million. The SNP said last night that both Labour and Tory governments had tried to massage the unemployment statistics. Andrew Wilson, the party's shadow economy minister, said: "Until we recognise the real extent of the problem, how can we hope to have a government focused on providing the solutions that will help Scotland to achieve its full economic potential?" The report explains that large numbers are diverted from unemployment-related benefits (mainly the jobseeker's allowance) to others, or out of the benefits system altogether. They are therefore excluded from official monthly unemployment figures, which count only those claiming unemployment benefits. In particular, the research highlights the large number of unemployed with health problems who have been diverted to sickness-related benefits, mainly incapacity benefit. There are also substantial numbers disqualified from the jobseeker's allowance. Men and women who have been "pushed" into premature early retirement are another important group. The report shows Glasgow to have the highest rate of real unemployment in Scotland, at 22%, while Shetland has the lowest, at 4%. However, a Scotland Office spokesman said: "Our figures use internationally-agreed methods for calculating unemployment." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 07:12:13 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:12:13 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X6D-0006fp-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:12:05 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X5t-0000q2-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:11:45 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X4Z-0000pN-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:10:23 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9TEALW11048 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:10:21 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9TEAKA10917 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:10:20 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:12:10 +0200 Message-ID: <018901c27f54$b9962340$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 14:12:10.0796 (UTC) FILETIME=[2C0F8EC0:01C27F55] Subject: [A-List] UK eurozone membership: FDI dwindling Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:08:58 +0200 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:08:58 +0200 Foreign investment in UK drops 77% £27bn shortfall prompts call for adoption of single currency, writes MURRAY RITCHIE The Herald, 29 October 2002 FOREIGN investment in the UK is expected to fall from £35bn last year to £8bn this year, a drop of 77%. By comparison Germany, which ditched the mark and embraced the euro, has seen its foreign investment rise from £20bn to £28bn, according to new figures compiled in Brussels by the United Nations and shown to The Herald. The figures brought calls from the pro-euro lobby - including David Martin, Scotland's most senior Euro-MP and vice president of the European Parliament - for Tony Blair to speed up UK entry into the single currency. The grim statistics follow news earlier this year that foreign investment in Scotland had similarly dried up. This prompted an alarmed Jack McConnell and Wendy Alexander, the then industry minister, to announce a "major policy shift" in which government financial support for foreign investment was switched to indigenous business. The latest UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) statistics will prompt new political tensions over the euro. Mr Martin, the leading Europhile Labour MEP, argued: "The myths put around by the Eurosceptics in relation to the single currency have all proved unfounded. "The warnings sounded by the pro-Europeans are proving to be correct. The price of our isolation from Europe will be lost jobs and lost investment." He added: "Our investment is shrinking while that of our European competitors is growing. As soon as the five economic tests are met, Britain must begin preparations to join the successful single currency or risk being sidelined by investors for years to come." He said the figures suggested companies were deserting Britain "in droves" for the eurozone states. "Britain is being snubbed by big business." Mr Martin said Britain's inward investment had been running at a level which produced "hundreds of thousands" of jobs which would no longer be the case. While investment in Germany has risen, in France it has fallen - but is still worth £29bn, far ahead of Britain. Masakaka Fujita, who compiled the report for Unctad, said the figures showed the euro attracted big business. "It may be that companies are choosing to invest more in continental Europe in order to be inside the currency bloc in the long run," Mr Fujita suggested. Before the euro was introduced Britain had 16% of foreign investment coming into the EU. That figure now stands at just 5.1% compared with 18% which goes to Germany and 19% to France. The statistics are published only days after major car manufacturers warned the UK was suffering as a result of its isolation from the euro. Ford, Vauxhall, MG Mitsubishi Europe and Rover all claimed it was costing them "millions" of pounds. Philippe Legrain, chief economist of Britain in Europe, the pro-single currency campaign, said: "Foreign investors have warned again and again that Britain is a less attractive location if we remain outside the euro. These warnings have been ignored, and now we are starting to the pay the price. The longer Britain remains isolated from the euro, the higher that price will be." Angus MacFadyen, director of the anti-euro No campaign, urged caution about taking lessons from the figures. He said: "One change in this trend is hardly a reason to want to join the euro just because there is a sudden turn against us. "The United States has also been badly hit. This shows Britain's economy is closely aligned to that of the US in terms of trade cycles." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 07:16:11 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:16:11 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186XA7-0006h3-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:16:07 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X9n-0000rV-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:15:47 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186X8l-0000rD-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:14:43 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9TEEfp13957 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:14:41 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9TEEfA13895 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:14:41 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:16:30 +0200 Message-ID: <01c501c27f55$5499aba0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 14:16:30.0874 (UTC) FILETIME=[C7144FA0:01C27F55] Subject: [A-List] EWP: Hugo Young to join? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:13:18 +0200 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:13:18 +0200 Welcome to the one-party state that is Great Britain Thanks to the Tories, Blairism has been allowed to infect our democracy Hugo Young Tuesday October 29, 2002 The Guardian On the surface, Britain is a country politically doing what it should. The government has a big mandate. It continues to be tolerated by an unecstatic but untroubled public. The prime minister is better regarded than any of his predecessors at a similar point in their second term. The polity is evidently working. Yet in reality it is diseased. It lacks conflict. Britain has evolved into a mental as well as political one-party state. There's a uniformity of allegiance, under which the absence of organised disagreement legitimises, or at any rate readily accepts, a culture of easy opportunism. The government rejoices in this, but the Tory disintegration is just as responsible for it. We see that the failure of the Tories stretches far beyond the party. It taints the entire quality of British life. For there is no alternative magnet of power, no competition for Blairism, and this means that contention is mostly futile. The establishment, whether in politics, in business or in intellectual life, is all of one colour. There is little point in being anything else. There's no more telling place to watch this than in the BBC, nor could there be more revealing textual evidence of its evolution than the memoirs of John Birt, the former director-general. Has any man ever been more certain that he was right in everything he did? More staggeringly vain in his recitations of success? More biliously scornful of the efforts of every colleague who challenged him? More blindly aggrandising of every particle of credit for anything good his organisation did in the last decade? More serenely obtuse as to the effect such a chronicle of perfection might have on even a sympathetic reader? But this is not why Birt is an emblem of Blairite Britain. By comparison with his lordship, Tony Blair is a model of decent and human self-doubt. Where Birt personifies what Britain has become is in his creepy opportunism, culminating in his accurate perception that backing Blair is the only stance any sensible modern man could take. He began as a bit of a lefty, he tells us, sucking up in those days to Jim Callaghan. He became a Thatcherite at just the right moment, getting as close as he could. Power was all that drew him, cresting, with Blair, in an era, the present one, when almost all challenge to the reigning orthodoxy had anyway ceased. The BBC's engagement in this culture was completed with the appointment of Greg Dyke as Birt's successor. It was shocking that Dyke could get the job despite having paid £50,000 to the Labour party, and I wrote about that at the time. Much more shocking was that so few people were shocked - but now one better understands why that was. The Birt memoirs are not ashamed - are proud, indeed - to describe the author coaching candidate Dyke, at the instigation of his chairman, Christopher Bland, for the interview at which this awkward political detail might be raised. But in the wake of the memoirs we learn that the training was otiose. The BBC vice-chairwoman at the time, Baroness Young of Old Scone, wrote to the Times, innocence and indignation perfectly matched, to say: "The question of political neutrality hardly figured in the process." In other words, the £50,000 didn't matter. There was no issue. It wasn't even worth considering. Could there be a more resonant sentence about the ethos of this time? For it is absolutely true. The governors did not have to bother about the money because, in the absence of political conflict, it now had no meaning. The body that once cherished manifest impartiality as the central plank of its credo could effortlessly overlook what, not long ago, would have been an absolute bar to the appointment: and could deploy Bland's Tory past as cover to show its political objectivity to those few people who might still slightly wonder whether it existed. Bland, indeed, makes his own emblematic point. Like many once-Tory businessmen, he has become, in all that counts, a Blairite. With regulatory arguments to win and favours to seek, how could a BT chairman be anything else? How could any mainstream capitalist, whose business would tend to profit from amicable relations with the powers that be? It requires heroic weirdness these days for anyone with any ambition in any field, save perhaps the Daily Telegraph and the Tory party itself, actually to declare themselves a personal opponent of the government. There may be occasional blips in the process. The audit commission has been resistant to the sliding of one Blairite, and perhaps a second, into its chairmanship. But who else would do? Where would you find one? Maybe the live-in partner of the arts minister, which is the status of the second candidate, is rather too flagrant a connection for a post peculiarly dependent on distance from government for its credibility. But the broad penumbra of public life, from which all such appointments are drawn, is now peopled exclusively by those who have made their number with the only orthodoxy they can see prevailing for many years ahead. Allegiance, in these days of apathy and opportunism, may not be strong. But it is all-pervasive. This is an unhealthy, ultimately repellent, national condition, not found in any other western democracy. The one-party state of mind as well as politics doesn't seem to be making the country happier, or better governed. It is a direct, pernicious consequence of the collapse of the Tories as a political force. It has pretty well the entire establishment, for reasons of opportunism or comfort or idleness, in its grip. But it is more an offence against than an endorsement of the British way of politics, and perhaps that is a reason why, below establishment level, something is stirring. The Tories may have nothing to say, and offer no magnetic pole round which alternative approaches to power may gather, but some trade unions can. The extremity of the firemen's original claim was insupportable, but their assertion of a countervailing power against Blairite minimalism and control has come not before time. Still more enlivening would be the breakout from consensual apathy that seems likely to follow a decision by President Bush to attack Iraq without the support of the UN, a decision Mr Blair has left himself no option but to support. That might mark a conclusive moment for the single-track conformism that otherwise defines the Blairite era. I pray devoutly this does not happen. A unilateralist invasion of Iraq poses dangers that are more credibly terrible than anything Saddam Hussein has an interest in perpetrating. But there's also a need to blow apart the coterie politics of compliance into which Britain has descended and the post-Beeb Birt has formally migrated, and which nobody has the nerve or the means or the anger fundamentally to challenge. There are pinpricks and problems, but no sense of an alternative power centre: which means no guarantor of serious challenge, on which the health of democracy depends. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 07:19:58 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:19:58 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186XDV-0006kf-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:19:37 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186XD9-0000un-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:19:15 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186XB6-0000sC-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:17:08 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9TEH6916792 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:17:06 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9TEH4A16718 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:17:04 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:18:55 +0200 Message-ID: <01cd01c27f55$aaab5ca0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 14:18:55.0296 (UTC) FILETIME=[1D295C00:01C27F56] Subject: [A-List] EU integration struggles Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:15:43 +0200 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:15:43 +0200 Giscard unveils draft for 'United Europe' Ian Black in Brussels Tuesday October 29, 2002 The Guardian The former French president Valéry Giscard d'Estaing ran into immediate British opposition to some of his key ideas when he unveiled a carefully-balanced draft for a European Union constitution yesterday. Senior government sources insisted that there was "not a cat in hell's chance" that the union could be renamed the United States of Europe or United Europe: two of the suggestions in the document. Mr Giscard began the final phase of the convention on the EU's future by presenting his document after months of heated discussion about how to run an enlarged union of 25 or more members from 2004. Tony Blair gave a guarded welcome to the blueprint in a Commons statement devoted to last week's Brussels summit spat with Jacques Chirac, the current French president, about the reform of the common agricultural policy. Mr Giscard's draft proposals, the prime minister said, clearly emphasising the positive, made it clear that "Europe should cooperate as a union of European states, not a federal superstate". But government sources were adamant that there were "red lines" in the document that Britain found unacceptable, especially what the EU should be called in 2004. Article one says it could be called the European Community, the European Union, United Europe (Mr Giscard's favourite) or the United States of Europe. Britain's response was swift and blunt. "There is not a cat in hell's chance of it being called the United States of Europe," a senior official said. "If anything, it will be called the European Union." The convention, which is preparing the most ambitious reorganisation the union has ever undergone, has 105 representatives of the 15 current member states, the 13 candidate countries and the European and national parliaments. Its brief is to make the union's unwieldy and outdated structures work better and to try to bridge the often yawning gap between disenchanted citizens and remote institutions, partly by explaining precisely the complex division of powers between the union and its members. British officials gave a warm welcome to the proposed article eight, which makes clear the primacy of the nation state. "Any competence not conferred on the union by the constitution rests with the member states," it says. Mr Giscard's text is a skeleton, suggesting only brief chapter headings for the constitutional treaty, but it nevertheless gives a clear sense of the direction he is likely to take when the final version is published next summer. It contains something for almost everyone. Article one, for example, describes "a union of European states which, while retaining their national identities, closely coordinate their policies at the European level, and administer certain common competences on a federal basis". Unsurprisingly, the draft attracted praise and condemnation from across the political spectrum. David Heathcoat-Amory, a Tory Eurosceptic and convention delegate, said the draft would endow the EU with "all the attributes of a state", and condemned what he called a "federal advance". But Andrew Duff, the British chairman of the convention's Liberal Democrat caucus, was jubilant. "It allows for a radical refoundation of the EU along explicitly federalist lines," he said. Another key point is that that the constitution should include the EU's charter of fundamental rights, to give a moral dimension to the union and underline that the project is about more than just a single market and currency. Britain has in the past fiercely opposed this, on the grounds that it might anchor new social rights in EU law, but government sources said it might now be acceptable. The draft also suggests a way for countries to leave the EU, and the idea of a congress, including MEPs and members of national parliaments, to oversee its strategic direction. The text refers to the term of office and appointment procedures for a president for the European council. This proposal is strongly backed by Britain, France and Spain, but opposed by smaller states which fear a loss of influence. Mr Giscard said last week that there was a "very broad consensus" for having a European president and ending the current practice of a six-month rotating presidency. Some of the main points Values and objectives: The draft constitution sets out the foundation stones of the EU: "human dignity, fundamental rights, democracy, the rule of law, tolerance, etc." Its aims include promoting social cohesion, strengthening economic and monetary union, and high employment. Name: The European Union, the European Community, United States of Europe or United Europe. Membership would be open to 'all European states which share the same values'. Citizenship: It establishes and defines union citizenship, giving citizens of member states dual citizenship. Powers and competences: The constitution will define the powers of the EU's main bodies: the supranational European commission, the directly elected European parliament and the European council. It lists areas of union competence and those shared with the states. Withdrawal: The document will establish the procedure for leaving the club. Article 45 establishes the procedure for the suspension of a member state which violates its principles and values. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 07:52:41 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:52:41 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186XjS-0007Fj-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:52:38 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Xin-00016L-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:51:57 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Xfn-00015y-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:48:51 -0700 Received: from modem-1498.wolf.dialup.pol.co.uk ([81.76.133.218] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 186Xfl-0001Fe-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:48:50 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] New economy bull: cooking the books Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 In-Reply-To: <018101c27f54$a01e0ea0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> Importance: Normal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:48:17 -0000 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:48:17 -0000 > -----Original Message----- > From: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu > [mailto:a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu]On Behalf Of Michael Keaney > Sent: 29 October 2002 14:08 > > REAL unemployment in Scotland is running at 360,000, or 13%, compared with > the official rate of just 115,000, according to a report released today. > > Glasgow has the highest rate, at 22%, it claims, followed by West > Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire and Clackmannanshire, all at 19%. I was recently in Lanarkshire and a more depressing place would be hard to find unless elsewhere in the Celtic Fringe (the Rhondda for eg). But these dour, depressing kirk-ridden villages, where the victorian extractive and metal-bashing industrial heartland became modern social graveyards, will never come back to life, will they? Mark From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 08:04:46 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:04:46 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186XvA-0007Ki-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:04:44 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Xub-00018i-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:04:09 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186Xsz-00018Q-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:02:29 -0700 Received: from modem-1498.wolf.dialup.pol.co.uk ([81.76.133.218] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 186Xsy-0005qO-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:02:28 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] EWP: Hugo Young to join? Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 In-Reply-To: <01c501c27f55$5499aba0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> Importance: Normal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:01:55 -0000 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:01:55 -0000 > -----Original Message----- > From: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu > [mailto:a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu]On Behalf Of Michael Keaney > Sent: 29 October 2002 14:13 > To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu > Subject: [A-List] EWP: Hugo Young to join? This may be a bridge too far in our bridge-building exercises. I'm sure he'd love to join, of course. I'm afraid his attempt to conjure up Orwellian fear about Blairism is sanctimonious silliness--you cannot fear these people. Even in World War 2 when HMG interned as Enemy Aliens the many German-Jewish refugees over here, the worst they could come up with was to convert the Douglas Holiday Camp (in the Isle of Man) into a sort of scenic rest-home where His Majesty's German guests were able to sit out the war in some comfort. I remember Alfred Sohn-Rethel telling me about his time there. Like many another he soon got conscripted to the war effort. Most Germans who were not POW's ended as a translators, broadcasters for the BBC German Service or (as in Alfred's case) cryptanalysts. I think he rather missed the Isle of Man; the seaside was so bracing. I'm hopeful that if Bro Blair decides to intern you and me he'll send us to the same place. I went there when I was a young lad and it was open again as a holiday camp, and I remember it very well; the chalets, the redcoats, the girls. It's not in the English tradition to put fellow Aryans (even Jewsih ones) into *real* camps. Different matter if you were Black or Asian, or a Boer or Irish of course. Mark From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 12:12:53 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 12:12:53 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186bnH-0000Rq-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 12:12:51 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186bmr-0002p8-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 12:12:25 -0700 Received: from mesa.acns.colostate.edu ([129.82.100.130]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186bmO-0002oz-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 12:11:56 -0700 Received: from holly.ColoState.EDU (holly.acns.colostate.edu [129.82.100.76]) by mesa.acns.ColoState.EDU (AIX4.3/8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id MAA67536 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 12:11:56 -0700 Received: from localhost (sholden@localhost) by holly.ColoState.EDU (AIX4.3/8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id MAA171254 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 12:11:31 -0700 From: Stephen Holden To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Subject: Re: [A-List] Russia: Chechen hacker alert In-Reply-To: <008101c27f4f$bb8e3c00$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 12:11:20 -0700 (MST) Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 12:11:20 -0700 (MST) On Tue, 29 Oct 2002, Michael Keaney wrote: > Is it the article that is false or its source? I would opt for the latter, > since "Ian Bruce" is merely a conduit, a urinal for intelligence services > from the CIA to MI6 to, apparently, the FSB, which must be counted as having > a strong interest in playing up the Chechen threat to all life as we know > it, including, most importantly of course, the financial system. I can't speak for the source, but anyone claiming that a two-year old, widely known and widely detectable program (meaning that all antivirus software cleans it) is the tool used by "experts" to break into banks, is stunningly ignorant. I was at the release for the first version of BO in 1998 and have used & defended against the program, it's something used by people who have a lack of programming knowledge. If this is put out by the FSB or similar, they must be counting on their audience not knowing much at all about the subject. -steve From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 14:58:44 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:58:44 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186eNo-0001GX-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:58:44 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186eNW-0003pz-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:58:26 -0700 Received: from shawidc-mo1.cg.shawcable.net ([24.71.223.10] helo=pd5mo2so.prod.shaw.ca) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186eMT-0003o4-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:57:21 -0700 Received: from pd3mr3so.prod.shaw.ca (pd3mr3so-ser.prod.shaw.ca [10.0.141.179]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with ESMTP id <0H4R00AAOJE69H@l-daemon> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:51:42 -0700 (MST) Received: from pn2ml7so.prod.shaw.ca (pn2ml7so-qfe0.prod.shaw.ca [10.0.121.151]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with ESMTP id <0H4R008ANJE5RM@l-daemon> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:51:41 -0700 (MST) Received: from cr185582a (h24-83-31-41.vc.shawcable.net [24.83.31.41]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with SMTP id <0H4R00LHVJE5DG@l-daemon> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:51:41 -0700 (MST) From: Macdonald Stainsby Subject: Re: [A-List] Full Spectrum Entropy: Wheels off... To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Message-id: <002901c27f97$41185c60$291f5318@vc.shawcable.net> MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4522.1200 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: QUOTED-PRINTABLE X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-priority: Normal References: Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:05:11 -0800 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 14:05:11 -0800 Mark, I'm sorry to see that you continue to disconnect the different = parts of the over-all trajectory of the military-oil-new map plot being unfold= ed. The system the US has built up globally needs a massive change, and t= hat is coming here, with full armed occupation coming at the other end of th= e plan for the middle east. Iraq is neccessary, next will be Saudi and general permanent increase= in presence in the whole Gulf. The Palestinians are going under during t= he attack on Iraq. What is or isn't in "Bush's heart" won't matter, except in t= he course of how fast they move. It seems like the war may get re-scheduled, an= d will take place after the Winter. That will continue to be step one as the Empire trades its long term = democratic fa=E7ade--useful in the Cold War-- for the ability to put on a global= choke hold. It has a very large cheque, but this needs to be cashed quickly, befo= re the globe sees what is happening. When one stops to observe in real time, the American EWmpire is sucki= ng up more and faster intrigue than any before, yet it still creates much more r= esistance. We need to see this as Cheney see it: a war set to last past our life= times (good thing he has a bad heart). Macdonald ----- Original Message ----- =46rom: "Mark Jones" From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 20:50:44 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 20:50:44 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186jsS-0002ix-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 20:50:44 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186js9-0006TR-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 20:50:25 -0700 Received: from mta7.pltn13.pbi.net ([64.164.98.8]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186jr4-0006TE-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 20:49:18 -0700 Received: from sabri ([66.124.233.210]) by mta7.pltn13.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H4R005POZY4DS@mta7.pltn13.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 19:49:16 -0800 (PST) From: Sabri Oncu To: PEN-L , ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Conflict of interest Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 19:48:37 -0800 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 19:48:37 -0800 Why Bears Will Never Be Market Stars By Michael Lewis Berkeley, California, Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- One of the striking things about the financial press during a bear market is what isn't in it: bona fide financial celebrities. A bull market gives rise to lots of big-time bull gurus (Abby Joseph Cohen, Mary Meeker, Henry Blodget) who then become almost household names. There is no real equivalent to these characters in bear markets. There are bearish authorities, of course, and they get a bit of attention, but they excite nothing like the passion and interest of the bulls. Just the reverse: they excite skepticism. Even now, when Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts to newspaper reporters that the stock market will rise 40 percent in a year, no one writes that she stands to make a lot of money if the market rises. When David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund tells reporters the stock market will fall 40 percent next year, he is invariably described as a man who bets money on the market falling. Double Standard One obvious reason for this double standard is that the average investor is long the market. Faith, or optimism, or whatever you want to call it, is built into our financial system. Skepticism, or pessimism, or whatever you want to call it, is systematically discouraged. The people who are right about the market when stocks are rising receive a lot more uncritical flattery and attention than the people who are right about the market when stocks are falling. As a result, for anyone who sets out on a career of financial punditry, there is a very clear incentive to become a bull. Louis Rukeyser, for instance. The host of "Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street" has made a fantastically good living for going on 30 years by ridiculing bearishness in all its forms, and celebrating bullishness in most of its forms. Even in this darkest of stock market moments, Rukeyser has defied, with Dracula-like determination, public television's attempts to kill him off. As the Dow plunges, he continues to be watched and taken seriously, if not on Wall Street then at least in West Palm Beach. Bears' Obscurity No doubt Rukeyser would argue that he has been watched because he's been right about long-run trends: the market is higher now than it was 30 years ago. And that is no doubt a part of the secret of his success. The other part is that the television audience is long. But here is the point: Even with the Dow falling fast, it is impossible to imagine a bearish version of Louis Rukeyser's gaudy worldly success. Just as we grossly exaggerate the importance of people who argue that that the market is going up, even when those people are dimwits, we grossly diminish the importance of those who say the stock market is going down -- even when those people are first-rate thinkers. James Grant, for instance. The editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer is one of the most interesting market analysts alive. Even in a bull market his views are far more stimulating and original than those of most bullish pundits. For going on 15 years he has argued, with wit and clarity, that the U.S. stock market is a house of cards. If there was any justice in the world right now, James Grant would be a household name, feted for his prescience, offered huge sums for his public speeches, perhaps even recognized on occasion by New York taxi drivers. But because James Grant is instinctively bearish and constitutionally incapable of optimism, he has, even now, only a small, perverse cult following. It's Your Fault Whose fault is this? Why do we have this weird, and weirdly corrupting, asymmetry in the market for financial opinion? It's hardly the bears' fault. In their gloomy way, they try just as hard as the bulls to attract attention to themselves. It's no easier to blame the bulls. They are far too busy enjoying their worldly success to conspire against the bears; indeed, in their treatment of the bears the bulls exhibit a certain largeness of spirit about them. (Rukeyser invites Grant onto his TV show, for example.) The media might take the blame, but the media is usually just frantically trying to give its audience what it wants. Which is to say that the fault must lie with the audience. If our financial punditry is structurally bullish -- if it is inclined to encourage markets to rise a bit too giddily -- that is only because consumers of it want it to be. They think they want the truth, but the truth about what they want isn't as simple as that. On the one hand they'd like the truth; on the other, they have these stock portfolios. They have, in other words, a conflict of interest. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Oct 29 23:24:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 23:24:37 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186mHN-0003MG-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 23:24:37 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186mH8-0007Zw-00; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 23:24:22 -0700 Received: from out1.prserv.net ([32.97.166.31] helo=prserv.net) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186mGB-0007Zn-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 23:23:23 -0700 Received: from attglobal.net (slip-32-102-174-177.or.us.prserv.net[32.102.174.177]) by prserv.net (out1) with SMTP id <2002103006232120102qac45e>; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:23:21 +0000 Message-ID: <3DBF7A57.2A0352B8@attglobal.net> From: Chris Brady X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.77 [en] (Win95; U) X-Accept-Language: en MIME-Version: 1.0 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Subject: Re: [A-List] Full Spectrum Entropy: Wheels off... References: <002901c27f97$41185c60$291f5318@vc.shawcable.net> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Reply-To: cdbrady@attglobal.net List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 22:21:11 -0800 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 22:21:11 -0800 I recall reading the Pentagon planners determined that the optimum window for an Iraq attack would be Jan/Feb. The massive inertia of the forces directed toward that time and place does not seem to have abated, although the recent rhetoric has. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 01:27:45 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 01:27:45 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186oCX-0003qN-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 01:27:45 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186oCD-0008M1-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 01:27:25 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186oBa-0008Ls-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 01:26:46 -0700 Received: from modem-3994.tiger.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.136.223.154] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 186oBW-0007ZR-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:26:42 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] Full Spectrum Entropy: Wheels off... Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) In-Reply-To: <3DBF7A57.2A0352B8@attglobal.net> X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Importance: Normal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:26:09 -0000 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:26:09 -0000 > -----Original Message----- > From: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu > [mailto:a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu]On Behalf Of Chris Brady > Sent: 30 October 2002 06:21 > To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu > Subject: Re: [A-List] Full Spectrum Entropy: Wheels off... > > > I recall reading the Pentagon planners determined that > the optimum window for an Iraq attack would be Jan/Feb. > The massive inertia of the forces directed toward that > time and place does not seem to have abated, although > the recent rhetoric has. > The assumption here seems to be that the Bushies are totally out of control, have no Plan B, and are bent on executing Plan A (Total World Military Domination) come what may. This seems to be Mac's idea too. Hard to understand what they've spent so much time wrangling with France, Russia etc in the Security Council in that case (all that wrangling doesn't anyway quite fit in with the macho Bush stance of 'when I want your opinion I'll beat it out of you'). The weapons inspectors wanted to go back weeks ago, it was Bush who went into 'thwart mode' because he wanted them to go back on a hair-trigger, preferable surrounded by marines. It's November (almost). There is still no Security Council Resolution. It takes (according to a report in the Guardian) 6-8 weeks to get the inspection teams up and running in Baghdad. At this rate, if Bush's plan to attack in Jan/Feb is 'irrevocable' then it'll be the inspectors themselves who get bombed. But what do I know? But I can't help feeling that little straws in the wind like the theatrical spat between Blair and French president Chirac at the EU summit--the argument was about agricultural subsidies, not world war 3-- when Chirac almost burst into tears and said no-one had been so rude to him in his life the way Tony was rude to him-- this is not the demeanour of men expecting the world to walk off the Middle East tightrope any second. Let's be clear that the bottom line with Iraq is not oil (although it's great that so many people have grasped the idea that yes, oil has something to do with it), the bottom line is about money, power, and the survival of hegemony. The 'regime change' Bush wanted was to change a pro-French and pro-Russian regime in Baghdad into a pro-US regime. This is because the time has come for Iraq to reappear in the world oil market as a major swing-producer because, as we all know, the Hubbert Peak is approaching and although we didn't need Iraq oil 10 years ago, we soon will. In order to get Iraqi oil onto the market there is no need to bomb Iraq, it is merely necessary for Britain and the US to abandon the sanctions regime which has stifled Iraq oil production since 1991. All Opec nations supported this because by keeping Iraqi oil off the market, their prices were kept up. But no-one supports it now because the alternative to Iraqi oil is world economic meltdown, which will drag Opec states down with the rest. They (Opec states) need orderly markets and stable, moderately high prices for their product. They don't need price volatility and catastrophic war. Everyone on all sides has colluded with Iraqi sanctions, even Saddam himself because it helped keep him in power. Without sanctions it might be much harder for Saddam to avoid the historical logic which has tended to make Iraq a potentially more powerful (therefore more dangerous to the West) state than Saudi Arabia (although the population boom there means that that country too is now a political and potentially military threat to the west). Iraq was always the heart of Arab Nationalism. Now that oil elsewhere is running out and global demand is skyrocketing (China building 33 000 km of motorways etc), it is time to lift Iraqi crude and huge amounts; oil supply must increase, according to US IEA estimates, by up to 50% in the next decade to meet predicted demand growth. But a new strategic framework is required in order to ensure that the new centrality thus acquired in world energy supply by the middle east, does not result in the resurgence of Arab Nationalism backing high-powered and well-equipped militaries. Of course I have no way of knowing what secret deal has now been done between Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and the US to get all these ducks in a row, but I'm betting that such a deal has now been struck and that both Saddam and Saudi Arabia are parties to it, and that means there won't be the war we have been told to expect. As Bush himself said, regime change can also mean, changes in how the regime works. If Saddam agrees to disarm and to allow BP-Amoco, Texaco and Chevron in and does not try to exclude the Anglo-Americans from the oilfields in favour of French and Russian firms, then why should there be a war? We shall breathe a big sigh of relief and go back to sleep. What Bush WILL have achieved is the creation of a vast new system of US bases throughout the region, which no doubt will soon extend (and with Saddam's agreement) into Iraq itself. This will be enough to guarantee (they must be calculating) the long term security of the region for western capital to operate in and as a source of energy supply. If Bush walks away with the consolidation into a new permanent imperial system of his huge new ring of 'temporary' bases running in an arc from Tien Shan (the Chinese border with former Soviet Central Asia) Afghanistan, to Kazakhstan, Georgia, the Caucasus, and throughout the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula, then I think it's safe to say that a grateful nation will appreciate his efforts; he will have avoided war, further entrenched US hegemony, made the world 'safe for democracy', and reaffirmed the traditional posture of US imperialism vis a vis its allies, namely that of being 'first among equals', and of proceeding in concert and by consensus rather thru coercion. Mark From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 01:54:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 01:54:38 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186ocY-00041K-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 01:54:38 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186ocJ-0008S8-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 01:54:23 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186obk-0008Rz-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 01:53:48 -0700 Received: from modem-3994.tiger.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.136.223.154] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 186obh-0002f5-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:53:45 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: "a-list" Subject: re: [A-List] Full Spectrum Entropy: Wheels off... Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Importance: Normal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:53:14 -0000 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:53:14 -0000 Of course, all that I've just posited, with the possibility of a no-war result which is still favourable (or can be presented as such) to Bush and his need to save face, doesn't adequately deal with all the variables and possible outcomes. From the point of view of the stable performance of the capitalist world economy, in which all he capitalist states have an interest, the 'optimum' solution I just suggested as now being also the most probable (no war with Iraq, and Anglo-American oil interests being allowed into the Iraqi energy sector) doesn't solve the underlying problems which got us here in the first place. It doesn't solve the problem of growing demand for cheap energy, especially oil, just at the moment (historically-speaking) when energy and above all oil is likely to become both scarce and expensive. It also doesn't do anything to address the underlying disequilibria afflicting the world economy, evidenced by US trade deficits, dollar indebtedness, economic weakness vis a vis rivals like China and the EU, and the various other factors which collectively represent adverse trends tending towards deflation, economic slowdown and perhaps a global slump. The US will be even more militarily over-extended and behind the facade of 'US leadership of willing allies' will be the fact that the emperor has not many clothes, for the bitter truth is that Bush's Plan A was foiled more by resistance from the wise men in his own military and US ruling circles generally, who clearly saw that the imperial role being claimed by Bush was simply unsustainable and that the US cannot rule in the middle east or anywhere else, without the tacit support of many and the open collusion and active participation of at least a few key allies, and that support cannot be taken for granted. The New Rome hasn't quite happened yet. Meanwhile, all those new bases have to be financed somehow, and what Bush will leave has his main legacy seems likely to be a totally-wrecked system of US public finances. Finally, if this is how things work out in the middle east, then it is not a sufficiently powerful springboard for US imperialism to do anything *militarily* about China, and China is still the main strategic problem faced by the US incoming decades. Mark From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 03:46:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 03:46:36 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qMu-0004QU-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 03:46:36 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qMi-0000ZP-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 03:46:24 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qLv-0000ZG-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 03:45:35 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UAjSd28471 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 12:45:28 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UAjRA28353 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 12:45:27 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 12:47:21 +0200 Message-ID: <002b01c28001$46cf2b60$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: References: Subject: Re: [A-List] New economy bull: cooking the books X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 10:47:21.0053 (UTC) FILETIME=[B93758D0:01C28001] Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 12:44:08 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 12:44:08 +0200 Mark writes: I was recently in Lanarkshire and a more depressing place would be hard to find unless elsewhere in the Celtic Fringe (the Rhondda for eg). But these dour, depressing kirk-ridden villages, where the victorian extractive and metal-bashing industrial heartland became modern social graveyards, will never come back to life, will they? ----- Very unlikely in my view. Regional policy in the UK died when Thatcher took over in 1979 -- previous governments had targeted investment in those areas, most famously Harold Macmillan forcing British Steel to locate a plant at Ravenscraig in south west Scotland, rather than in South Wales where they wanted it. The scale of the devastation caused by Thatcherite policies forced even her to implement a very small scale type of regional policy called "enterprise zones" in which the government threw money at anybody promising to invest in the area, leading ultimately to the location of Japanese car plants in the north east of England (another depressed and depressing region, along with the old coal fields similarly laid waste by Margaret). The metropolitan bias of Blair continues the Thatcherite policy drift but without Conservative Party pretensions to the landed classes in the shires (hence the Countryside Alliance). What is really required is some sort of Wasteland Alliance, hinted at very gently by Hugo Young in yesterday's article on UK politics, about which more later. Meanwhile much greater attention to the development of underdevelopment within the core is required if only to correct for the myopic and apologetic crap that routinely gets peddled by state/corporate cheerleaders and hack economists applauding the "new economy", "new prosperity", etc. Michael From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 04:01:57 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:01:57 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qbl-0004V8-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:01:57 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qbb-0000gj-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:01:47 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186WtU-0000i2-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:58:56 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9TDwto30294 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:58:55 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9TDwrA30231 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:58:53 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:00:43 +0200 Message-ID: <013d01c27f53$20298400$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_013A_01C27F63.E3A18B20" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 14:00:43.0874 (UTC) FILETIME=[929F9420:01C27F53] Subject: [A-List] Fw: Yes, It Was a Bushmaster. Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:57:31 +0200 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:57:31 +0200 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_013A_01C27F63.E3A18B20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable This comes courtesy of Michael Moore: Wednesday, October 25th, 2002 Dear friends, =20 Yesterday, Larry Bennett, a 16-year old, was shot in the head after he = was involved in a minor traffic accident. You probably didn't hear about = it because, well, how could he be dead if he wasn't shot by The Sniper? Yesterday, an unidentified woman was shot to death in her car in Fenton, = MI. You probably didn't hear about it because she had the misfortune of = not being shot by The Sniper. Two nights ago, Charles D. Bennett, 48, an apartment security guard, was = shot to death after confronting two teenagers in his parking lot in = Memphis, TN. You probably didn't hear about it because the sniper was = too busy sleeping in his car that night, and thus, poor Charles was not = shot by The Sniper. Yes, The Sniper has apparently been caught, so we can go back now to NOT = reporting the DOZENS of gun deaths that occur every day, the ones that = just aren't newsworthy because they happen in all those old boring ways = -- unlike the ways of The Sniper, who was interesting and creative and = exciting and scary! He played so much better on the news. Of course, had Congress not caved in to the NRA we would have known = after the first HOUR of the first day of the killings three weeks ago = that those bullets were coming out of a rifle that belonged to John = Williams/Mohammad. How would we know this? It's right there in the state = records in New Jersey: this gun was purchased this past July, under the = name of John Mohammad! Many more people died needlessly in the days and weeks after that first = hour of the shootings, and every one of their deaths could have probably = been prevented had we had a national ballistics fingerprinting data = base. Thank you, Mr. Heston for this unnecessary carnage. Thank you, Mr. Bush, = for supporting Mr. Heston and his group's agenda -- which protects only = the criminals. And thank you, Bushmaster Firearms, Inc., for providing the gun used to = shoot the 13 people in the DC area. Bushmaster's president, Richard E. = Dyke, was the Maine finance chairman of George W. Bush's 2000 = Presidential campaign. According to Business Week, Dyke had to step down = as Bush's finance chair "after reporters began quizzing him about his = business dealings. Bushmaster Firearms Inc., is notorious for using = loopholes to sidestep a 1994 federal ban on assault rifles." Bush and Bushmaster. Too tragically perfect. If everyone reading this letter (and you now number in the millions) = would share this fact with just one person who is thinking of skipping = going to the polls on Nov. 5th, I believe that on Nov. 6th, Mr. Bush = will have neither the Senate nor the House doing his or Heston's = bidding. Americans don't like people who assist serial killers in being = able to ratchet up their kills because The Sniper knows that his bullets = are prohibited by law from being traced to his gun. That, in a nutshell, is what the NRA is all about -- and I implore all = responsible gun owners and hunters to join with me in putting an end to = the NRA agenda once and for all. Don't give Bush his majority on = November 5th. He's already seen to it that his cronies in big business = have wiped out your 401 (K), and they are doing their best to see that = you are left with no pension at all. That alone should be reason = enough to NOT pull a single lever for a Republican on Nov. 5th. Send a = message. Do something brave. Yours, =20 Michael Moore mike@michaelmoore.com www.michaelmoore.com ------=_NextPart_000_013A_01C27F63.E3A18B20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
This comes courtesy of Michael = Moore:
 

Wednesday, October 25th, 2002

Dear = friends,

 
=20 Yesterday, Larry Bennett, a 16-year old, was shot in the head after he = was=20 involved in a minor traffic accident. You probably didn't hear about it = because,=20 well, how could he be dead if he wasn't shot by=20 The Sniper?

Yesterday, an unidentified woman was shot to = death in=20 her car in Fenton, MI. You probably didn't hear about it because she had = the=20 misfortune of not being shot by The Sniper.

Two nights ago, = Charles D.=20 Bennett, 48, an apartment security guard, was shot to death after = confronting=20 two teenagers in his parking lot in Memphis, TN. You probably didn't = hear about=20 it because the sniper was too busy sleeping in his car that night, and = thus,=20 poor Charles was not shot by The Sniper.

Yes, The Sniper has = apparently=20 been caught, so we can go back now to NOT reporting the DOZENS of gun = deaths=20 that occur every day, the ones that just aren't newsworthy because they = happen=20 in all those old boring ways -- unlike the ways of The Sniper, who was=20 interesting and creative and exciting and scary! He played so much = better on the=20 news.

Of course, had Congress not caved in to the NRA we would = have known=20 after the first HOUR of the first day of the killings three weeks ago = that those=20 bullets were coming out of a rifle that belonged to John = Williams/Mohammad. How=20 would we know this? It's right there in the state records in New Jersey: = this=20 gun was purchased this past July, under the name of John = Mohammad!

Many=20 more people died needlessly in the days and weeks after that first hour = of the=20 shootings, and every one of their deaths could have probably been = prevented had=20 we had a national ballistics fingerprinting data base.

Thank you, = Mr.=20 Heston for this unnecessary carnage. Thank you, Mr. Bush, for supporting = Mr.=20 Heston and his group's agenda -- which protects only the = criminals.

And=20 thank you, Bushmaster Firearms, Inc., for providing the gun used to = shoot the 13=20 people in the DC area. Bushmaster's president, Richard E. Dyke, was the = Maine=20 finance chairman of George W. Bush's 2000 Presidential campaign. = According to=20 Business Week, Dyke had to step down as Bush's finance chair "after = reporters=20 began quizzing him about his business dealings. Bushmaster Firearms = Inc., is=20 notorious for using loopholes to sidestep a 1994 federal ban on assault=20 rifles."

Bush and Bushmaster. Too tragically perfect.

If = everyone=20 reading this letter (and you now number in the millions) would share = this fact=20 with just one person who is thinking of skipping going to the polls on = Nov. 5th,=20 I believe that on Nov. 6th, Mr. Bush will have neither the Senate nor = the House=20 doing his or Heston's bidding. Americans don't like people who assist = serial=20 killers in being able to ratchet up their kills because The Sniper knows = that=20 his bullets are prohibited by law from being traced to his = gun.

That, in=20 a nutshell, is what the NRA is all about -- and I implore all = responsible gun=20 owners and hunters to join with me in putting an end to the NRA agenda = once and=20 for all. Don't give Bush his majority on November 5th. He's already seen = to it=20 that his cronies in big business have wiped out your 401 (K), and they = are doing=20 their best to see that you are left with no pension at all. That alone = should be=20 reason   enough to NOT pull a single lever for a Republican on = Nov.=20 5th. Send a message. Do something brave.
Yours,

  

Michael Moore mike@michaelmoore.com
www.michaelmoore.com

 ------=_NextPart_000_013A_01C27F63.E3A18B20-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 04:02:29 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:02:29 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qcH-0004VJ-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:02:29 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qc9-0000h7-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:02:21 -0700 Received: from fep01-svc.mail.telepac.pt ([194.65.5.200]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186XuE-00018Z-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:03:46 -0700 Received: from jorge.mail.telepac.pt ([213.13.28.99]) by fep01-svc.mail.telepac.pt (InterMail vM.5.01.04.13 201-253-122-122-113-20020313) with ESMTP id <20021029150335.ODEH24671.fep01-svc.mail.telepac.pt@jorge.mail.telepac.pt> for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:03:35 +0000 Message-Id: <5.0.2.1.0.20021029145608.023be080@mail.telepac.pt> X-Sender: jfigueir@mail.telepac.pt X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0.2 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: Jorge Figueiredo Subject: RE: [A-List] TFP interpela a Lula y Serra In-Reply-To: References: <5.1.0.14.0.20021028235039.0263bf70@mail.telepac.pt> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="=====================_20638408==_.ALT" Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:03:41 +0000 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:03:41 +0000 --=====================_20638408==_.ALT Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Mark: About the Manifesto, the answer of Portuguese media (TV, radio, newspapers) is a total and absolute silence. Therefore, we print a leaflet to distribute hand to hand --- in the way of 19th century... If you will go to Florence Conference, next 6 November, preparatory of World Social Forum, you could contact Miguel Urbano Rodrigues, a Portuguese representative and subscriber of our Manifesto. Kind regards of Jorge At 07:22 29-10-2002 +0000, you wrote: >Thanks, Jorge. > >Any updates on your Manifesto actions? > >Mark --=====================_20638408==_.ALT Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Mark:
About the Manifesto, the answer of Portuguese
media (TV, radio, newspapers) is a total and
absolute silence.  Therefore, we print a
leaflet to distribute hand to hand --- in the
way of 19th century...
If you will go to Florence Conference, next
6 November, preparatory of World Social
Forum, you could contact Miguel Urbano
Rodrigues, a Portuguese representative
and subscriber of our Manifesto.
Kind regards of
Jorge

At 07:22 29-10-2002 +0000, you wrote:
Thanks, Jorge.
 
Any updates on your Manifesto actions?
 
Mark
--=====================_20638408==_.ALT-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 04:02:56 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:02:56 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qci-0004VR-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:02:56 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qcb-0000hS-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:02:49 -0700 Received: from fep05-svc.mail.telepac.pt ([194.65.5.209]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186YHu-0001Mw-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:28:15 -0700 Received: from jorge.mail.telepac.pt ([213.13.28.99]) by fep05-svc.mail.telepac.pt (InterMail vM.5.01.04.13 201-253-122-122-113-20020313) with ESMTP id <20021029152813.GYES20921.fep05-svc.mail.telepac.pt@jorge.mail.telepac.pt> for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:28:13 +0000 Message-Id: <5.0.2.1.0.20021029150828.023ce600@mail.telepac.pt> X-Sender: jfigueir@mail.telepac.pt X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0.2 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: Jorge Figueiredo Subject: Re: [A-List] TFP interpela a Lula y Serra In-Reply-To: <00e901c27f51$1b4b6680$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> References: <5.1.0.14.0.20021028235039.0263bf70@mail.telepac.pt> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="=====================_22118703==_.ALT" Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:28:21 +0000 Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:28:21 +0000 --=====================_22118703==_.ALT Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed No problem, Michael. It's not necessary apologies. If you have some dificulty with Portuguese or Spanish texts contact me. JF At 15:43 29-10-2002 +0200, you wrote: >Jorge > >My apologies. We get a lot of stuff posted from Latin America by >non-members, including a lot of spam from Argentina for some reason. Are >Argentinian ISPs being used to sabotage left lists, or are they simply >offering their services to anyone in order to stay afloat? I think that 2nd hypothese is better. This moment Argentine entrepreneurs sell until theirs mothers to make money. > >Anyway, usually I make a judgment about the content of something before I >decide to erase it or forward it. Because this looked like a serious >commentary I assumed it would be of interest. Maybe there is a case for a >critical analysis of such material. I often forward material to the list, >not because I agree with it, but because of what it reveals about thought >processes within the state and influential opinion-forming circles. >Perhaps, however, this particular example is just too far out and so I >should just erase anything we get from TFP in the future. > >Thanks for the advice, > >Michael --=====================_22118703==_.ALT Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" No problem, Michael. It's not necessary apologies.
If you have some dificulty with Portuguese or Spanish texts contact me.
JF
At 15:43 29-10-2002 +0200, you wrote:
Jorge
 
My apologies. We get a lot of stuff posted from Latin America by non-members, including a lot of spam from Argentina for some reason. Are Argentinian ISPs being used to sabotage left lists, or are they simply offering their services to anyone in order to stay afloat?

I think that 2nd hypothese is better.  This moment Argentine
entrepreneurs sell until theirs mothers to make money.

 
Anyway, usually I make a judgment about the content of something before I decide to erase it or forward it. Because this looked like a serious commentary I assumed it would be of interest. Maybe there is a case for a critical analysis of such material. I often forward material to the list, not because I agree with it, but because of what it reveals about thought processes within the state and influential opinion-forming circles. Perhaps, however, this particular example is just too far out and so I should just erase anything we get from TFP in the future.
 
Thanks for the advice,
 
Michael
--=====================_22118703==_.ALT-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 04:03:30 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:03:30 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qdG-0004Vc-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:03:30 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qd3-0000hq-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:03:17 -0700 Received: from tino.sinectis.com.ar ([216.244.192.232]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186alV-0002Pd-00 for ; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 11:06:58 -0700 Received: by tino.sinectis.com.ar (Postfix, from userid 99) id 0F9BF6CB2A; Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:06:26 -0300 (GMT+3) Content-Type: text/plain Content-Disposition: inline Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Mailer: Sinectis Webmail 5.6.13test10 From: Julio Fernández Baraibar To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Subject: Re: [A-List] TFP interpela a Lula y Serra Message-Id: <20021029180626.0F9BF6CB2A@tino.sinectis.com.ar> Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Reply-To: julfb@uolsinectis.com.ar List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:06:26 -0300 (GMT+3) Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 15:06:26 -0300 (GMT+3) This is shit. TFP is an imperialist, reactionary, fascist organization, a kind of latin Black Hundreds. Its messages have nothing to do in this list. > > InEnglish,Please EmPortuguês,PorFavor > > Estimados amigos: Les enviamos una noticia sobre las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas, publicada en el Diario Las Américas, de Miami (Oct. 26, 2002), que nos parece de interés para diversos países iberoamericanos. Aguardamos vuestros valiosos comentarios. Cordialmente, Ricardo Vieira de Melo Peixoto - Luso-Brasileira de Notícias (LBN) - Lisboa > > Brasil: TFP interpela a candidatos presidenciales > > La entidad constata que la "inmensa masa centrista y conservadora" se ve reducida a escoger entre dos "opciones de izquierda" y pide definiciones en lo que respecta a la familia cristiana y a la propiedad privada > > SÃO PAULO (LBN) - La organización no-gubernamental TFP -Tradición, Familia, Propiedad- entregó hoy una carta a los candidatos presidenciales José Serra (PSDB) y Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva (PT) donde manifiesta que "la inmensa masa centrista y conservadora" de los brasileños, "teniendo que comparecer a las urnas debido a la obligatoriedad del voto", se ve reducida a escoger entre dos "opciones meramente de izquierda". Por ello, TFP expresa "aprensión y temor" ante la posibilidad de que el futuro presidente de Brasil pueda impulsar, especialmente en lo que respecta a la familia cristiana y a la propiedad privada, políticas y leyes que atenten gravemente contra la Ley de Dios". > > TFP añade que "uno de los requisitos fundamentales para la autenticidad de un régimen democrático es la definición programática de los candidatos"; pero que, "lamentablemente, en varios puntos de fundamental importancia, el actual proceso electoral no se ha caracterizado por la claridad de las posiciones, y sí por la falta de definición ideológica y hasta por la confusión". Delante de ello, la entidad -constituida por laicos católicos, que actúan en el campo temporal "bajo la exclusiva responsabilidad de sus miembros"- hace a los dos candidatos presidenciales 10 preguntas cuyas respuestas pueden contribuir a aclarar "las dudas y recelos" de la "gran corriente conservadora" de los brasileños, cuyos votos serán decisivos el próximo día 27 de octubre. > > Entre otras preguntas, TFP solicita una nítida posición de los candidatos Serra y Lula da Silva sobre si apoyarán o no la aprobación de leyes que legitimen el llamado "casamiento homosexual" y lleven a la legalización del aborto, condenados por la doctrina de la Iglesia; si reprimirán o no "las invasiones y demás actividades de índole criminal promovidas por el denominado Movimiento de los Sin-Tierra (MST)"; si pretenden llevar adelante el agro-igualitarismo demagógico y socialista, promoviendo la Reforma Agraria; si respetarán o no el derecho de los brasileños de adquirir, poseer y portar armas debidamente registradas, para el ejercicio de su legítima defensa; si incentivarán o no la aplicación de la Reforma Urbana, de perfil socialista y confiscatorio; si, en el caso de ser electos, se comprometen o no a "denunciar las violaciones a la libertad y las persecuciones de índole política y religiosa llevadas a cabo por el régimen comunista" del dictador Fidel Castro; etc. > > La carta constata, finalmente, el "silencio enigmático" de gran parte de los obispos y sacerdotes brasileños respecto "de estos asuntos de importancia capital para el futuro cristiano de nuestra Nación". > > Hasta el cierre de esta edición, los candidatos presidenciales Lula y Serra aún no habían respondido la solicitud de nuestra agencia para que manifiesten sus opiniones. > > LBN / Luso-Brasileira de Notícias > > TFP:TextoCompleto > > Participe en nuestra encuesta. Simplemente envíe su voto y, en caso que así lo desee, añada su valiosa opinión: > > TFP:Concuerdo TFP:Discrepo TFP:Depende > > Subscribir > > SubscribirAmigos (con el previo consentimiento de éstos). > > Retirar a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu > > Gracias por vuestra atención y paciencia. > From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 04:07:31 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:07:31 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qh9-0004Vx-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:07:31 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qgz-0000jL-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:07:21 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qfy-0000jC-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:06:19 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UB6Aj21527 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:06:11 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UB63A21052 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:06:04 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:07:50 +0200 Message-ID: <004301c28004$23953240$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: References: Subject: Re: [A-List] EWP: Hugo Young to join? X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 11:07:50.0475 (UTC) FILETIME=[960241B0:01C28004] Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:04:38 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:04:38 +0200 Mark writes: > Subject: [A-List] EWP: Hugo Young to join? This may be a bridge too far in our bridge-building exercises. I'm sure he'd love to join, of course. ----- Yes, the thought of SDP founder member and perpetually staid and sensible Hugo Young joining anything aspiring to the complete overhaul of our system of political economy is more than a little far fetched. However, Young does identify certain features of contemporary British politics which have been highlighted here, namely the gap that exists waiting to be filled by new parties. While Young is more likely to be enthused by the prospect of a David Owen type vehicle, perhaps led by Michael Portillo (in Europe, out of the eurozone), he also points out the gaping hole on the left when he raises the issue of trade union militancy. The EWP ought to fill that gaping hole, if only because most of the British left (such as it is) remains mired in pre-1976 fantasy and is still trying to come to terms with Thatcherism, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the oil crisis, not to mention ecological degradation. Thus Young's article is useful as an illustration of just how deep the crisis of legitimation permeates the British state, in that the Labour Party's transformation into the state party, achieving a degree and depth of hegemony undreamt of by Thatcher (who still had clear enemies in a way that Blair does not), threatens to undermine that hegemony and with it the legitimacy of the system that serves New Labour's sponsors so well. Roy Hattersley has been making similar noises of late, and among the good reasons that unreconstructed right wing social democrats like Hattersley and Third Wayers like Young worry is that the crisis of legitimacy threatens to throw up the far right (like the BNP) or the far left (like the EWP, hopefully). Rather a "consensus" driven system in which two parties give the appearance of competition whilst agreeing on the essential elements of the political and economic settlement. Charles Kennedy's Liberal Democrats have until the next general election to usurp the place of the official opposition and thereafter become Tweedledee to New Labour's Tweedledum, otherwise we can expect Owen and like minds to move into action, assuming that they have not already done so in preparation for the euro referendum. BTW, among the internees on the Isle of Man during WW2 was Tiny Rowland, Edward Heath's "unacceptable face of capitalism" but praised by Nelson Mandela for pioneering Western investment in Africa (yes, it's true!). Prior to his Lonrho career he was known as Rowland Fuhrop. The World Socialist Web Site has an interesting obituary on him. See http://www.wsws.org/news/1998/july1998/rowl-j29.shtml Michael From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 04:10:39 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:10:39 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qkB-0004Xy-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:10:39 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qf3-0000id-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:05:21 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qeE-0000iU-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:04:30 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UB4Mm14411 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:04:23 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UB4DA13922 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:04:15 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:05:55 +0200 Message-ID: <003801c28003$defee860$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 11:05:55.0397 (UTC) FILETIME=[516ABF50:01C28004] Subject: [A-List] Fw: An NLR article on Argentina Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:02:43 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:02:43 +0200 Originally posted by Lou Proyect to Marxmail: The latest NLR has an article (http://www.newleftreview.net/NLR25104.shtml) by a liberal professor named David Rock on the economic crisis in Argentina that covers the same terrain as the series of articles I posted here some months back (http://www.columbia.edu/~lnp3/mydocs/state_and_revolution.htm). Although it contains some very useful information, it betrays a certain waffling on the decisive question of imperialism. This does not surprise me completely, since Nestor warned me about David Rock when I began my research. Although Rock's book on Argentina ("Argentina, 1516-1987: from Spanish colonization to Alfonsin") appears authoritative and can be found in all your better bookstores, you would be advised to take it with a grain of salt. In the NLR article, the word "imperialism" does not occur once. Although this in itself is not proof of anything, the fact that Rock can write "Only the Baring Crisis of 1890 disrupted the development of the export economy" is utter nonsense. As I pointed out in copious detail, Great Britain's imperial control was manifested through the railway system which Rock does not even mention. When it comes to Peronism, Rock describes it as "near-totalitarian", which should come as a complete surprise to anybody who is familiar with the period. If anything, the Peron era represented a democratic advance in social terms, in the same fashion as Chavez's presidency in Venezuela. I suppose that as the author of "Authoritarian Argentina: the Nationalist Movement, its History and its Impact," Rock would be ill-disposed to any attempt by a Latin American country to determine its own destiny. If they aren't careful, they could easily end up slipping into fascism. In the concluding section of the article, Rock manages to avoid any mention of the grass-roots mobilizations that are transforming the country. Instead, he seems intent on offering advice to "the dissident Radical congresswoman Elisa Carrió" who "has emerged as a leftish alternative, having gained a reputation as a scourge of corruption." It is somewhat sad that NLR has such limited horizons when it comes to changing Argentine society. I guess they want to be careful not to betray any unfashionable ideas about proletarian revolution. -- The Marxism list: www.marxmail.org From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 04:23:31 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:23:31 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qwd-0004cP-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:23:31 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qwV-0000om-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:23:23 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qvb-0000nW-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:22:27 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UBMKc18856 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:22:20 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UBMJA18793 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:22:19 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:24:15 +0200 Message-ID: <00f001c28006$6ee8b9e0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: References: <20021029180626.0F9BF6CB2A@tino.sinectis.com.ar> Subject: Re: [A-List] TFP interpela a Lula y Serra X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 11:24:15.0819 (UTC) FILETIME=[E151D1B0:01C28006] Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:21:03 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:21:03 +0200 Julio writes of TFP: This is shit. TFP is an imperialist, reactionary, fascist organization, a kind of latin Black Hundreds. Its messages have nothing to do in this list. ----- I've never heard of this outfit before but it's interesting to see what kind of reaction it has provoked. Like I said to Jorge, I assumed that because it featured serious discussion of Lula that it would be interesting to list members who can understand Portuguese. In future I'll be sure to exclude TFP material. However, it would be good to know a little more about TFP. How powerful is it? Does it have a large membership? Is it influential, and if so, in what circles? Is TFP worth monitoring or is it just another group of right wingers that is going nowhere? Thanks for your help, Michael From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 04:26:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:26:38 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qze-0004ch-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:26:38 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qzO-0000pN-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:26:22 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qyL-0000pD-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:25:17 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UBPBh21026 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:25:11 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UBPAA20964 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:25:10 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:27:06 +0200 Message-ID: <00fc01c28006$d4a77aa0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 11:27:06.0585 (UTC) FILETIME=[471AA490:01C28007] Subject: [A-List] UK legitimation crisis: split capital trusts Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:23:54 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:23:54 +0200 Here's a coincidence: from Tiny Rowland as the unacceptable face of capitalism to split capital trusts as the "unacceptable face of the City". Of course there were days, not so long ago, when people like John McFall would have publicly proclaimed the City to be unacceptable per se. Ho hum. Scandal trust fund manager is 'unacceptable face of the City' MPs savage director who earned millions KARL WEST The Herald, 30 October 2002 THE City manager at the centre of the £13bn investment trust scandal in which thousands of customers lost their life savings was savaged yesterday by a committee of MPs. Christopher Fishwick, formerly Aberdeen Asset Management's highest paid director, apologised, but denied misleading investors and insisted he had done nothing corrupt. However, he suffered the humiliation of being likened to Sherman McCoy, the fictional Wall Street hot-shot who made his fortune, only to lose it all, in Tom Wolfe's novel, The Bonfire of the Vanities. Mr Fishwick also had to reject a suggestion, from John McFall, chairman of the House of Commons Treasury select committee, that he represented the "unacceptable face of the City". The committee is conducting an inquiry into split capital investment trusts, a sector of the financial investment industry which became mired in controversy when around 40 of the 120 trusts on the market ran into difficulties due to the falling stock market, high bank borrowing, and high levels of cross-holdings. Some 50,000 investors are believed to have lost money, including thousands of small investors in Aberdeen's split cap trusts, five of which have collapsed. Mr Fishwick, formerly Aberdeen's head of global closed end funds, said his experience had underlined to him that the public did not understand sufficiently the investment business. "There needs to be a mass education programme for investors in all kinds of products. I'm staggered how little people understand about their money." During an often heated session at Westminster, Mr Fishwick - who earned a multi-million- pound package and left his job with a £350,000 payoff - defended his severance terms. Mr Fishwick, who failed to appear before a previous hearing of the committee in July, told members he left the company "by mutual agreement" after being "hounded" by the press. He appeared contrite yesterday, saying: "I'm very sorry. It's not nice when people lose money but I won't apologise for trying (to save the collapsed trusts)." Asked by Mr McFall, the Labour MP for Dumbarton, how it felt to be the unacceptable face of the City, Mr Fishwick responded: "I don't believe that I am the unacceptable face of the City, quite frankly." Questioned by Mr McFall whether he had ever been involved in any corrupt buying practices, Mr Fishwick insisted: "I don't think I was involved in anything corrupt." Mr McFall asked Mr Fishwick: "Do you recognise yourself as Sherman McCoy, the successful Wall Street bond dealer who had a phone number salary, probably a bit like yours?" Mr Fishwick replied: "Coming from Wigan, no I don't." He then attempted to deflect criticism of his pay by saying the board's remuneration was voted through by 95.6% of shareholders in the firm at last year's annual meeting. This prompted Mr McFall to quip: "Nearly as good a vote as Saddam Hussein." Mr Fishwick - who said he was now planning a "career direction change" which would take him out of the City - argued that investors had not been deliberately misled about the risks they faced. No-one had anticipated a three-year stock market slump. He said he had invested in and lost money in the trusts himself, knew many of his clients personally, and sympathised with their losses. But he did not believe he had behaved improperly. Appearing alongside Mr Fishwick, Martin Gilbert, Aberdeen's chief executive, acknowledged that the company was concerned about the way it badged one of its products. He said unit trust was marketed as a low risk product. "We have taken the view that we are not happy with the performance of that fund. Therefore we are proposing an uplift package for all the people who have bought our unit trust ... It will give them their money back." Mr McFall closed the session by chiding the company's representatives for submitting new data to the committee late in the day, which he called a "discourtesy." There was some good news yesterday for the 3000 long-suffering investors in Aberdeen's Progressive Growth unit trust as the firm said it would pay them compensation some time in 2005. Aberdeen said they would get back their original investment, which could cost the firm as much as £60m. Aberdeen is the only company embroiled in the collapse of the split sector to have offered any form of compensation. The firm also denied it had plans to sell its retail fund management arm, which sells investment products such as splits to small, private investors. Shares in Aberdeen edged ahead 3.5p, or nearly 10%, at 39p as the stock market remained convinced it would dispose of its property assets to bolster finances. The shares have fallen from highs of nearly 700p over fears that Aberdeen could face big compensation claims or even fines imposed by regulators over the collapse of its splits. Master of the Universe and Mr Splits Name Sherman McCoy (alias Tom Hanks). Also known as Master of the Universe. Age 38. Abode $2.6m,14-room apartment on Park Avenue, New York. Transport Taxi, but owns $48,000 Mercedes-Benz. Family circumstances Married with one daughter. Education Buckley School, St Paul's then Yale University. Job Bond trader for investment banking firm Pierce and Pierce. Described as Over-reachingly ambitious, self-infatuated, venal, "king of the bond market". Appearance Tall and well groomed. Always wears a tie and frequently suspenders, but often dons a dinner suit after 6pm. Downfall Becomes a "professional defendent" in the legal system after being involved in a freak car accident and loses everything in the process. Name Christopher Fishwick. Also known as Mr Splits. Age 41. Abode £2.5m mansion in Crowborough, East Sussex. Transport Reportedly a purple Lamborghini Diablo that changes colour in daylight. Family circumstances Married with a young family. Education Gained 13 0-levels at a Wigan school and then went straight to the City. Job Formerly the highest-paid director of Aberdeen Asset Management. Described as A hard man, "depressed" by the furore surrounding split trusts. Appearance Rounded with dark hair, like singing suit from the Halifax commerical. Downfall Known as the architect of Aberdeen Asset Management's split trusts which have lost investors hundreds of millions of pounds - but which earned him £7m in the past two years. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 04:27:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:27:36 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186r0a-0004cs-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:27:36 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186r0M-0000qd-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:27:22 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186qzT-0000pa-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:26:27 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UBQKq22663 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:26:20 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UBQJA22595 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:26:19 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:28:15 +0200 Message-ID: <010401c28006$fdae1a80$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 11:28:15.0366 (UTC) FILETIME=[7019CA60:01C28007] Subject: [A-List] UK military: mortality problem Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:25:03 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:25:03 +0200 Deepcut parents attack 'culture of secrecy' More families of victims sign up to back campaign JAMES McKILLOP The Herald, 30 October 2002 THE families of four young soldiers who died while stationed at Deepcut barracks yesterday called for an immediate public inquiry and accused the armed services and the Ministry of Defence of overseeing a "culture of secrecy". Documents on the deaths of four recruits while on guard duty at the barracks in Surrey, including James Collinson, 17, from Perth, were destroyed and conflicting statements were made as part of a prolonged campaign to withhold the truth, the parents claimed. Jim Collinson, 40, father of James said: "The MoD wouldn't come forward and explain what happened to our son that night. "Three days after his funeral I phoned up a senior officer at Deepcut and asked him how the investigation was going. He replied: 'One body, one gun, draw your own conclusion'." The incidents have sparked a massive response from relatives of 1748 soldiers who have died from non-natural causes since 1990. The relatives feel the Army has failed to explain how their loved ones died. John Cooper, a barrister representing many of the families, said an application would be made to the High Court for a judicial review that could lead to the reopening of inquests into the deaths of scores of soldiers in mysterious circumstances within the UK. Mr Collinson added: "We have never got the truth from the Army over what happened. It just seems impossible that having had a meal with my wife Yvonne during which he had spoken about buying a new car and how he was looking forward to a holiday in Spain he would hours later turn his SA80 rifle on himself." Getting information out of the MoD over the death of his son was similar to getting blood from a stone, he claimed. Referring to the 'one body, one gun' comment of the Deepcut officer, Mr Collinson said: "That was their attitude. James was just a number...a number that no longer existed and they were not interested any more. "There needs to be a proper investigation right from the start as soon as the young ones are found. It should start then and not two or three hours later and that is why we want a public inquiry now." Asked who should be in charge of the immediate investigation, Mr Collinson was in no doubt. "Civilian police," he said. Mr Collinson and his wife agreed that the body of their son could be exhumed to assist a renewed Surrey police investigation into the deaths of James and Geoff Gray, 17, Cheryl James, 18, and Sean Benton, 20. Police are to employ psychological profiling to assess each soldier's state of mind to see if suicide was likely. They will also use 3D-imaging to reconstruct the last known movement of the soldiers in an attempt to uncover new leads. However, Mr Cooper said the families were far from satisfied that it was being conducted by Surrey police. Officers from Surrey were in effect being asked to reinvestigate inquiries originally conducted by their own colleagues. Another force should have been brought in to conduct the fresh inquiries, he said. Simon Hughes, the Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman, said the public inquiry into Deepcut should happen as soon as possible. The MoD insisted that they had nothing to hide. ----- Doubts on Deepcut Families deserve a public inquiry into deaths Editorial, The Herald, 30 October 2002 FOR all that the four had signed up to fight for queen and country they were no more than youngsters. James Collinson and Geoff Gray were 17. Cheryl James was 18, and Sean Benton was 20. All died, not on a battlefield, but at Deepcut barracks in Surrey. Their employer, the Army, says they took their own lives. Their parents disagree. For them, only a public inquiry - for which they lobbied MPs yesterday at Westminster - can lay to rest fears that the deaths might have stemmed from bullying and harassment, or, worse, foul play. The facts so far are astonishing. In June, 1995, Private Benton, from Hastings, was found with five bullet wounds to his chest. Ballistics tests suggested only one bullet was fired from close range. Suicide, said the Army. In November, 1995, Private James, from Llangollen, was found with a bullet through her forehead. The Army said suicide; a coroner recorded an open verdict. In September 2001, Private Gray, from London, was found with two gunshot wounds to his head. Suicide, said the Army; a coroner recorded an open verdict. In March this year, Private Collinson, from Perth, died from a single gunshot wound. Suicide, said the Army; a happy young man with no reason to take his own life, said his parents. Surrey Police, who initially accepted the assumptions of suicide and left military police to investigate, have now taken charge of the inquiries into all four deaths. The families have complained that another force should have been called in to review the case, as is usual when an investigation is judged to have been flawed. It is just one of a number of misjudgments and errors surrounding the case. The Army, for example, has admitted that it destroyed some of the bloodied uniforms of the soldiers, and the post-mortem examinations were carried out by consultant pathologists, not the Home Office pathologists usually used in cases of suspicious death. The Army is acutely sensitive to claims that bullying was commonplace in the barracks, or that it has covered up the truth. For his part, Geoff Hoon, the defence secretary, is waiting for the results of the police inquiry. In the meantime, rules have been changed so that police will take automatic charge of investigations into the untimely deaths of soldiers, and the Ministry of Defence has promised a review of training procedures. It is a start, but it is nowhere near what the families, and the most basic notions of justice, merit. Had four young people died in disputed circumstances in any other occupation there would have been official outrage and inquiries aplenty. But the MoD is different, is it not? No. The deaths at Deepcut were not isolated occurrences. In the past 12 years there have been 1748 fatalities on Army bases. It is time the military establishment was more candid about their causes. Secrecy is to a great extent essential to the armed forces. Yet the MoD has too often used it as a shield to deflect reasonable requests for information, whether it be on Chinook or Deepcut. It is also home to a culture of intransigence, of impermeability, which may be essential on the battlefield, but appears uncaring on Civvy Street. The Deepcut parents are not threats to the defence of the realm. They are mothers and fathers who cannot begin to grieve properly until doubt has been removed about how their children died. A public inquiry is the least their country owes them. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 04:29:32 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:29:32 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186r2S-0004d6-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:29:32 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186r2I-0000rI-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:29:22 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186r1d-0000r9-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:28:41 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UBSYb25258 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:28:34 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UBSWA25196 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:28:32 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:30:28 +0200 Message-ID: <010c01c28007$4d546c60$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 11:30:29.0006 (UTC) FILETIME=[BFC1A2E0:01C28007] Subject: [A-List] Unimpeachable source on al-Qaeda Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:27:16 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:27:16 +0200 Holy warriors pick up reins in al Qaeda Six have taken over from bin Laden to keep network going IAN BRUCE The Herald, 30 October 2002 WESTERN intelligence agencies have identified six al Qaeda leaders who are believed to have taken over operational command of the network's military and financial planning while Osama bin Laden and his surviving senior lieutenants stay on the run or in hiding. The six are all experienced jihadis - holy warriors - suspected of involvement in the 1993 ambush that killed 18 US special forces troopers in Mogadishu, Somalia; the 1998 bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania; and the suicide attack on the USS Cole in Aden harbour two years ago. A dossier compiled by the CIA and the BND, Germany's spy agency, says the handover of responsibility for continuing the campaign against the west demonstrates al Qaeda's flexibility in the face of overwhelming international military force. While the debate continues over whether bin Laden is dead and sealed in a bombed-out cave in Afghanistan, or alive and a fugitive in Pakistan's independent tribal territories, the organisation's lesser players have dispersed across south-east Asia, Africa and Arabia. Less than a year after the fall of the host Taliban regime in Kabul, and seven months after the last al Qaeda diehards took on American forces for three weeks at Shah-e-Kot, the world's electronic eavesdroppers are picking up a growing volume of terrorist "chatter". Analysts say this is a sure sign that the network has reformed in decentralised form to make it less vulnerable to disruption. Of its 31 original commanders, six are dead, six in captivity and 19 unaccounted for. The six "shadow cabinet" leaders who have emerged from cover are named as Saif al-Adel, an Egyptian; Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, also Egyptian; Abu Musab Zarqawi, a Jordanian; Riduan Isamuddin, an Indonesian known by his followers as Hambali; Tawfiq bin Atash, also known as Khallad, who is either a Saudi or a Yemeni; and Rahim al-Nashri, a Yemeni. Al-Adel was a member of the network's security committee and a former special forces' officer in the Egyptian army. After fleeing to Saudi Arabia, he moved to Afghanistan in 1988 to join the mujahideen battle against the Soviet Union. He joined al Qaeda shortly after its founding in 1990 and is understood to be a key figure in the emerging alliance between it and Hizbollah, the Lebanese terrorist group fighting Israel. Al-Adel took over as chief of military operations in the Afghan-Pakistan border late last year after Muhammed Atef, his predecessor, was killed in a US bombing raid. He trained the Somali militiamen for the Mogadishu operation which caused US withdrawal from the area, helped plan the east African embassy bombings and was a coordinator for the USS Cole mission. Ahmed Abdullah, recruited from Egypt's Islamic Jihad, is the network's new financial controller. He was one of 480 Arabs who accompanied bin Laden into temporary exile in Sudan in 1991. He is believed to be in the mountains of Pakistan or Afghanistan with his wife and four children. Zarqawi was sentenced to death in his absence in Jordan for plotting to blow up a luxury hotel used by American and European tourists in Amman, the capital, in 2000. The BND has also identified him as the leader of Al Tawid, a hardline Palestinian group allied to al Qaeda. Isamuddin, better known in Indonesia as Hambali, is the chief suspect in the recent Bali nightclub bombing and the operational head of Jemaah Islamiyah. He is the only non-Arab member of al Qaeda trusted to make independent decisions, and a veteran of the Afghan war against Soviet occupation. Bin Atash, who lost a leg in the Afghan wars, is a skilled trainer for al Qaeda's brighter students of terrorism. Described as " a major league killer", he helped orchestrate the USS Cole attack and plotted suicide attacks against British and allied shipping in the Straits of Gibraltar. Al-Nashri, known as al-Makki, ran a front company trading in honey in Yemen which was used to disperse funds and launder cash for al Qaeda. He is also thought to have been involved in the failed Gibraltar plot and is now being sheltered by rebel tribesmen in the Yemeni hinterland. The Pentagon, meanwhile, confirmed that the first American to die in the last pitched battle of the war in Afghanistan this year was killed by "friendly fire". Chief warrant officer Stanley Harriman, a member of the US special forces, and three allied Afghan militiamen died when the crew of an AC-130 Spectre flying gunship mistook their four-wheel drive vehicles for an enemy convoy in pre-dawn darkness and sprayed it with cannon fire. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 04:33:34 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:33:34 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186r6M-0004dd-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:33:34 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186r6A-0000tQ-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:33:22 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186r5K-0000s1-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:32:30 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UBWO928655 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:32:24 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UBWMA28593 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:32:22 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:34:18 +0200 Message-ID: <011401c28007$d623ec00$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 11:34:18.0569 (UTC) FILETIME=[48962B90:01C28008] Subject: [A-List] Paul Foot on Iraq and New Labour Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:31:06 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:31:06 +0200 The people must protest Paul Foot Wednesday October 30, 2002 The Guardian Forty years ago, I sat down proudly in Trafalgar Square alongside Bertrand Russell and thousands of others in protest against Britain's weapons of mass destruction. We were all breaking the law. There was a lot of civil disobedience at that time, organised by the Committee of 100. The committee's arguments were founded in the horrific nature of nuclear weapons and the urgency of alerting the government to widespread public disquiet about them. The square was cleared by police in the early morning and the committee eventually vanished. Now, however, 40 years on, a monstrous war looms in the Middle East for which there is not the slightest justification. Every single charge against Saddam Hussein - that he has nuclear weapons, repeatedly breaks international law by invading his neighbours, and is a constant threat to peace in the region - applies tenfold to the client state of the United States in the region, Israel. The war on Iraq proposed by President Bush is a classic imperialist invasion to safeguard oil supplies. Very few governments in the world - and absolutely none in the Middle East - support Mr Bush's war. Britain's New Labour government is an exception - no one doubts that if Mr Bush does go to war in Iraq, he can rely on the grovelling support of the British government. Yet in the country the situation is very different. Opinion polls show a majority against war. The enormous anti-war demonstration last month took everyone by surprise, but was ignored in parliament and patronised in the press. Only 70 MPs out of 650 made even a gesture against the Iraq war. Lots of people joining in tomorrow's anti-war day will wonder what it takes to get their protest noticed. Who else can stop the war but the people? The case for civil disobedience, strong enough in the early 1960s, seems even stronger now. · Whenever I see Paul Boateng on television, I recall his election in 1987, with a heavily reduced majority, in Brent South. Garlanded with flowers, a delighted Mr Boateng declared: "Today Brent South, tomorrow Soweto." I have always been puzzled by this reference to the poverty-stricken South African township, but now I think I am beginning to understand it. Mr Boateng is in the cabinet, as chief secretary to the Treasury, and on October 10 he spoke at a global investment seminar sponsored by the country's biggest banker HSBC. After paying long and grovelling obeisance to the millionaires in his audience ("thanks to you, London has maintained its position among the world's top financial centres - we owe that to the enthusiasm and outlook in this room") Mr Boateng moved on to his main theme - the talks at the World Trade Organisation in Doha. The European Commission, he said, was putting its proposals about more "liberalisation" to the WTO. A lot had been done to pass on the views of British industrialists, but "we have more work to do in order to deepen the dialogue on trade in services". He went on: "The better informed the EC's negotiators are about the barriers you face, the better equipped they will be to present your case." In the past, Labour Treasury ministers have sought the views of bankers so they could be assessed and perhaps even contradicted. Now it seems a minister's role is even simpler: just to present the bankers' case to the WTO in order to remove any "barriers you face". One such "barrier" that annoys bankers all over the world is publicly owned enterprises such as hospitals, a barrier that is especially irritating in new juicy markets in Africa. So at last Mr Boateng's 1987 slogan is beginning to make sense: "Today Brent South, tomorrow Soweto's hospitals privatised - with big fees for bankers." · The same fraternal relationship between New Labour ministers and their wealthy sponsors emerges from last week's short controversy about tax relief on pensions contributions. At the moment all contributions to a pension fund can be set off against tax. In recent months some cheeky advisers have dared to suggest that the pensions tax relief for the very rich should be scrapped, saving many billions for the exchequer, and replaced by a scheme in which the government makes matching payments into everyone's pension pot. "This could mean," explained the Financial Times, "the less well off getting more help towards pension saving, but the better-off would get less." What a shocking proposal! How dare the government even contemplate such an outrage! As soon as the Tories and the Daily Mail got to hear of it there was a deafening chorus of righteous rich men's fury, and the terrified ministers at once threw up their hands and surrendered. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 04:36:40 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:36:40 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186r9M-0004du-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:36:40 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186r94-0000uK-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:36:22 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186r8Y-0000uB-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:35:50 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UBZhr32186 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:35:43 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UBZfA32120 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:35:41 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:37:37 +0200 Message-ID: <011c01c28008$4c9f57c0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 11:37:37.0350 (UTC) FILETIME=[BF11BE60:01C28008] Subject: [A-List] UK state: political realignment Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:34:25 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:34:25 +0200 More Guardian mischief, simultaneously stoking the legitimation crisis as it bewails it. Rumours rife as Portillo on the prowl Talk of possible leadership challenge sparked by the regular reappearance in the Commons of Tory backbencher Nicholas Watt, political correspondent Wednesday October 30, 2002 The Guardian In the corridors of Westminster, where Conservative MPs are anxiously discussing the fate of their leader, an intriguing figure has popped up again after nearly a year in the background. Michael Portillo, who appeared to be more interested in making television programmes about Wagner and Elizabeth I than in attending mundane House of Commons debates, has suddenly become one of the Tories' most diligent MPs. Backbenchers, who were cut dead by the unsuccessful leadership challenger during his rare appearances at Westminster before the summer recess, now find themselves greeted like long lost friends. Mr Portillo's new-found appetite for the cut and thrust of the Commons - he has questioned the prime minister in every Commons statement he has made since the recess - is fuelling speculation that the wily operator is laying the groundwork for an imminent leadership contest. "It is interesting to see Portillo again," one Tory said of his daily appearances in a new Commons seat in the back row of the Tory benches, directly behind Iain Duncan Smith. "He actually engaged me in conversation the other day and did not cut me off in his usually dismissive way." Return to fray Friends of Mr Portillo, who insisted on television recently that he was not interested in the leadership, deny he is "limbering up". They say he is fulfilling a private commitment to return to the fray after a year lying low following his catastrophic performance in last year's leadership election. His failure to secure the chairmanship of the Royal Opera House is said to have persuaded Mr Portillo that his future lies in politics. While the Portillo camp is keen to dampen speculation of a leadership bid, his reappearance at Westminster does coincide with feverish speculation about Mr Duncan Smith, who is suffering the worst crisis of his leadership. Tory MPs at all levels of the party, from humble backbenchers to frontbenchers, believe that his failure to make an impact on the polls raises serious doubts about whether he should carry on. Gaffe The doubts have been compounded by a series of poor performances by Mr Duncan Smith in the Commons since MPs returned from their summer recess this month. A gaffe at his first encounter with Mr Blair on October 16 - he suggested that this year's A-levels may not be "worth the paper they are written on" -was followed by a flat performance last week. "Iain is lacklustre in the extreme," a well-placed Tory said. "His failure to make an impact is relaxing Blair who can swat him with little difficulty." MPs believe that Mr Duncan Smith has two key challenges he must meet to secure his position. In the short term he must put in a convincing performance in his reply to the Queen's speech on November 13, an event at which William Hague always shone. If Mr Duncan Smith emerges unscathed next month, his next main challenge will come in next May's local elections - a poor performance would embolden MPs who only need to gather the signatures of 25 colleagues to mount a challenge. Should Mr Duncan Smith face a challenge - or take the Estelle Morris route and fall on his sword - the party is likely to suffer another damaging leadership contest. Mr Portillo is said, in his more optimistic moments, to dream of the Tory leadership. But it would have to be on his own terms - this seems unlikely after a frosty reception two weeks ago at a meeting of the backbench 1922 committee when he tried to defend the party chairwoman Theresa May's "nasty" speech. Mr Portillo is therefore likely to throw in his lot with Kenneth Clarke, who still has his eye on the leadership. Some MPs are talking about a dream ticket in which Mr Clarke finds common cause with his former Cambridge sparring partner, Michael Howard, who is now shadow chancellor. "Ken is still interested," one Tory said. "Don't forget that at one of the leadership hustings he dismissed objections to his age by saying that he would be drawing up his third administration in 10 years' time." He added: "Ken and Michael Howard will have to reach a deal, but that will only happen when we really reach rock bottom." Mr Clarke would like to fight what some MPs are describing as a "presidential" race in which he is hailed as leader without facing an unseemly contest. This seems unlikely because the former party chairman, David Davis, still fancies his chances. His standing among MPs, who regard him as an inveterate plotter, is low. But the party grassroots, who have the final say, have immense sympathy for Mr Davis after his unceremonious demotion by Mr Duncan Smith in the summer. "There will be a big stop Davis campaign," one MP said. The fresh round of Tory plotting is dismaying wise heads. "We are in trouble whichever way we go," one MP said. "Sticking with Iain will lead to another serious defeat, while a leadership contest would be incredibly damaging. Meanwhile Labour can do whatever it likes." ----- Tories plot to get rid of leader Nicholas Watt, political correspondent Wednesday October 30, 2002 The Guardian Iain Duncan Smith is facing a revolt against his leadership at all levels of the Tory party, as backbenchers join forces with shadow ministers to warn that the Conservatives will face a third catastrophic election defeat if he remains in office. A series of poor performances by the Tory leader in the Commons, against a background of dire opinion polls, have persuaded MPs that they will have to undergo another damaging leadership contest if they are to avoid electoral meltdown. Amid speculation about whether Kenneth Clarke and Michael Portillo will throw their hats into the ring again, well-placed Tories are describing the atmosphere among MPs as "neurotic and paranoid". Reviving memories of 1990, when Tory MPs turned against Margaret Thatcher when she became a liability, one Tory said: "The atmosphere is ghastly because MPs believe that they are in danger of losing their seats." Senior MPs say that an overwhelming majority of MPs have decided that Mr Duncan Smith is now a liability. But they are biding their time before launching a challenge - 25 MPs would have to sign a letter to trigger a leadership contest - for fear of opening up divisions with grassroots Tories who elected Mr Duncan Smith. "We could get the 25 signatures together in five minutes," one Tory said. "But that is the nuclear option which should only be used once it is clear that grassroots members have come round to our view." Opponents of Mr Duncan Smith believe that local Tory associations are losing confidence with Mr Duncan Smith, particularly after he endorsed Tory chairwoman Theresa May's conference speech in which she described the party as "nasty". Scores of letters from grassroots Tories, complaining about Mr Duncan Smith's poor performance, are said to arrived Conservative central office. MPs, who are careful not to put their heads above the parapet at Westminster, believe that Mr Duncan Smith must meet two key challenges if he is to survive. He must put in a strong performance when he responds to the Queen's speech on November 13. If he succeeds, the Tories must then poll well in next May's local elections. But Tories are gloomy. "Iain simply is not up to it," one MP said of his lack-lustre performances in the Commons which have allowed Tony Blair to flatten him in recent weeks. Another Tory said that Mr Duncan Smith faces an impossible task in the local elections because the party will be contesting seats in areas where they did well last time in 1999. "Iain faces a much higher hurdle than William Hague ever did. A reasonable performance, in which we take just a handful of seats, could look like a disaster." Should Mr Duncan Smith fail to turn round his fortunes by next May, MPs believe that he is likely to face a challenge if he does not take the "Estelle Morris option" and fall on his sword. But MPs are warning that this would be immensely damaging because there would be another bloody contest. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 04:58:35 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:58:35 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186rUZ-0004kV-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:58:35 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186rUM-00015s-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:58:22 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186rTD-00015j-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:57:12 -0700 Received: from modem-720.tiger.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.136.210.208] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 186rTC-0002BP-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 11:57:11 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] EWP: Hugo Young to join? Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 In-Reply-To: <004301c28004$23953240$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> Importance: Normal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 11:56:38 -0000 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 11:56:38 -0000 > -----Original Message----- > From: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu > [mailto:a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu]On Behalf Of Michael Keaney > Sent: 30 October 2002 11:05 > To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu > Subject: Re: [A-List] EWP: Hugo Young to join? > > BTW, among the internees on the Isle of Man during WW2 was Tiny Rowland, > Edward Heath's "unacceptable face of capitalism" but praised by Nelson > Mandela for pioneering Western investment in Africa (yes, it's > true!). Prior > to his Lonrho career he was known as Rowland Fuhrop. Didn't know that. From the way Alfred Sohn-Rethel used to talk, the IoM internment camp was one long political seminar; there were a great many German KPD'ers and Frankfurt School types like Sohn-Rethel himself. Mark From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 05:44:32 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 05:44:32 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sD2-0004v2-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 05:44:32 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sCs-0001J4-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 05:44:22 -0700 Received: from mta7.pltn13.pbi.net ([64.164.98.8]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sBw-0001Iv-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 05:43:24 -0700 Received: from sabri ([66.124.233.210]) by mta7.pltn13.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H4S00KHRD876N@mta7.pltn13.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 00:36:07 -0800 (PST) From: Sabri Oncu To: ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Full Spectrum Entropy: Wheels off... Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 00:35:28 -0800 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 00:35:28 -0800 Macdonald, You speak with certainty, as does Mark, although at least somewhere in his posts, Mark admits the possibility that he may be proven wrong. Below is an article that may be viewed as in support of Mark's argument. Mark's argument is highly speculative but in my view it is by no means an impossible to occur scenario. So we now have at least two plausible scenarios to consider when we do our organizing. The probabilities each of us associates with these scenarios are of course subjective. To sum up, what we need to debate is not which of these "bets" would win but what we should do in order not to lose no matter which of them wins. This is how I see it. Sabri ++++++++++ THE AMERICAS: Powell steps up diplomatic effort on Iraq By Richard Wolffe in Washington and Carola Hoyos at the United Nations Financial Times; Oct 29, 2002 Colin Powell, US secretary of state, attempted yesterday to bridge the gap with France and Russia over a new United Nations resolution against Iraq, saying there would be time for another substantive debate before the US launched any military action. Starting what appeared to be a final round of intensive diplomacy before pushing for a UN vote, Mr Powell said the US was not planning to take action in the immediate aftermath of what he expected to be a new Iraqi violation of UN resolutions. The move came as the Security Council remained divided over a US resolution as they quizzed Hans Blix, the UN's chief weapons inspector, and Mohammed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, about the strengthened mandate the text spells out for inspections teams. Mr Powell yesterday insisted the US had already compromised over the threat of force in its initial draft resolution, and that it would not be "handcuffed" in future action by committing itself to a second UN resolution. "I think the circle is squared by the fact that there will be time. The situation is not going to be so spring-loaded that after the violations are reported . . . that something happens the next morning," he told reporters. "It's also clear that it will take some time for people to make a judgment - not only the Security Council in terms of a resolution but also the US government and our allies, who might be willing to move with like-minded nations, like Kosovo, deciding to act in the absence of a resolution. "But there will be time for this to be considered - both courses of action." The Security Council meeting with Mr Blix and Mr ElBaradei helped the US garner support for the new weapons regime, although questions remained about the controversial US suggestion that inspectors conduct interviews with Iraqis outside the country, diplomats said. Mr Blix nonetheless agreed to many of the other measures laid out in the resolution, including demanding a detailed account from Iraq of its weapons of mass destruction and the granting of immediate and unrestricted access to all suspected weapons sites. He even appeared to support the position that the resolution should warn Iraq of consequences of if it did not comply with UN demands. "I think it is desirable that the Iraq understands that any lack of co-operation, or violation of the origins of the resolution, will call for reactions on behalf of the Council," Mr Blix said. However, Mr Blix said that on top of seeking clarity of mandate, he was looking for broad council agreement and the "readiness of the council to uphold the resolution." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:06:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:06:33 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sYL-000509-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:06:33 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sYA-0001RQ-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:06:22 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sWv-0001RB-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:05:05 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UD4wK25062 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:04:58 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UD4uA25000 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:04:56 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:06:53 +0200 Message-ID: <015801c28014$c485cec0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:06:53.0577 (UTC) FILETIME=[37A11F90:01C28015] Subject: [A-List] EU integration struggles: Franco-German axis Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:03:40 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:03:40 +0200 Franco-German axis threatens Blair Patrick Wintour, chief political correspondent Wednesday October 30, 2002 The Guardian President Jacques Chirac, a natural, charming blusterer, has never been slow to find the right insult for a British prime minister. He famously called Margaret Thatcher a housewife, and a brake on Europe. She hit back describing him as Le Bulldozer. But, until his accusations of Mr Blair's unprecedented rudeness, the personal chemistry between Tony Blair and President Chirac has been good. Whether their relationship will survive the current frostiness remains to be seen, but the repercussions of an Anglo-French falling out may be heard around Europe. President Chirac seemed flustered as he went into the Friday afternoon session of the EU enlargement summit in Brussels. He was seen arguing with the Danish chair of the summit, and within an hour he was involved in a full tilt row with Mr Blair. The British prime minister told President Chirac that France, the self-appointed guardian of Africa, could no longer with a clear conscience maintain a system of massive subsidies for French farmers. Within 24 hours Downing Street was briefing the Sunday newspapers that they had rowed. Some suspected that Downing Street had lifted the veil of secrecy in order to dispel the suggestion that Mr Blair had been outmanouevred. The French yesterday downplayed the row claiming it had been concocted for Mr Blair's domestic audience. The French press made hardly any mention of this great dispute. Yet by last night the French were confirming that matters had escalated, announcing that the Anglo-French summit billed for early December was to be delayed. However, this is not just a dispute between two large egos. For the past decade or more, it has been the foreign office's great strategic goal to dismantle the Franco-German motor that has dominated Europe since its inception. To the frustration of the British, Spanish and Italians, Europe was for too long a stitch-up between Helmut Kohl and Jacques Chirac, or his predecessor Francois Mitterrand. As one government member said: "Kohl would announce something, and a few minutes later, Chirac would say ' Je suis tout à fait en accord avec la proposition du chancelier allemand .' And Jacques Santer, then European commission president, would say 'these seem sensible proposals' - and that was it." The turning point was at the Nice summit in 2000, when Gerhard Schröder asked why France assumed that Germany would always fall into line with its proposals. Since then, Mr Blair, using his international standing afforded to him by his pivotal role with the US, has become more self-confident in Europe, tilting closer to the Germans.He stuck his neck out, for instance, for Mr Schröder during the German election campaign. To support him at a time when the German leader was running an Iraq policy that was infuriating the US required some explaining to George Bush. On his narrow re-election, Mr Schröder duly conveyed his gratitude by rushing to visit Mr Blair. Mr Schröder, in turn, had been absolutely furious with Mr Chirac for giving his opponent Edmund Stoiber the legion d'honneur. It underlined, in British eyes, the frostiness of the personal relations between Mr Schröder and Mr Chirac, something that Britain regarded as a diplomatic opportunity. So it was specially irritating to Mr Blair to find that the old habits of a Franco-German pre-summit stitch up had returned last week. It was a deal in which the French probably came out best and seemed to run against some of the previous rhetoric of the Germany's agriculture spokesman Renate Kunast, a prominent Green. It was the manner of the deal, as much as its content that inflamed Mr Blair. The prime minister's spokesman expressed Mr Blair's frustration yesterday. He said: "The idea that there can be a pre-cooked deal at summits with which others fall behind and roll over is not on. Those days are over." But the deeper worry for Downing Street is that the spat over agriculture may signify something deeper. Some in Downing Street now fear the Franco-German motor is revving up again. Mr Chirac and Mr Schröder are due to publish a new text on the future of Europe in November, setting out their joint vision for Europe and specifically the convention on the future of Europe. It will be an uneasy moment for Mr Blair who has always tried to dispel the impression that the EU is a Franco-German conspiracy. In French circles, there is also resentful talk that the British are playing hardball on the convention. The secretary to the convention Sir John Kerr, and the chief government negotiator Peter Hain are said to be too dismissive of other ideas, and insufficiently willing to look for a consensus. Although there is support for the idea of a president of Europe, the French and Germans believe the British want to reduce the European commission, the EU's policy making branch, into mere administrators of the Council of Ministers. That is something the Germans will not tolerate. More worryingly, the Germans and the French are also adopting similar, if not identical position on Iraq. This has left Mr Blair increasingly isolated as the sole European leader willing to conduct a war in Iraq without UN endorsement. Such an outcome would be a political nightmare for Mr Blair. He along with the US state department was instrumental in persuading George Bush to adopt the UN route. If the French continue to demand a second resolution before war is authorised, and Mr Bush walks away from the UN, the insults flowing across the English channel will make last week's froideur look distinctly tame. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:07:32 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:07:32 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sZI-00050K-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:07:32 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sZ8-0001Ru-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:07:22 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sXq-0001RJ-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:06:02 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UD5tj26553 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:05:55 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UD5sA26480 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:05:54 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:07:49 +0200 Message-ID: <016001c28014$e6254a60$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:07:49.0967 (UTC) FILETIME=[593D8DF0:01C28015] Subject: [A-List] UK state: London mayoral election Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:04:36 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:04:36 +0200 Gavron wins union ballot in London mayor fight Patrick Wintour, chief political correspondent Wednesday October 30, 2002 The Guardian Nicky Gavron emerged as the surprisingly comprehensive winner in the first union ballot for Labour candidates for London mayor when she won the contest in the Transport and General Workers Union. She took 65% of the total vote while Tony Banks, previously seen as the frontrunner, took 26%. The TGWU leadership in London had strongly recommended its members to back Ms Gavron, the London deputy mayor. If this result were matched in the other London unions Mr Banks would have to do very well in the 49,000-strong constituency section to compensate. The unions hold 50% of the vote, but must distribute their vote within their section of the college proportionately to the vote for each candidate. The TGWU represents about 3% of the total electoral college. Mr Banks's camp countered by revealing that the Newham MP had clearly won in the ballot inside shopworkers' union Usdaw. He was said to have taken 60% of the vote. Mr Banks's camp claims its soundings show he is ahead in the constituency section. The ballot closes on Friday. Eddie McDermott, the T&G London regional secretary, said: "I am pleased with this result and hope that our early declaration will encourage those in other sections of the party who have not yet voted to swing behind Nicky." Mr Banks has told his campaign team not to organise a victory party for his supporters should he win."I am contacting the other candidates to suggest we hold a joint fundraising event to celebrate the way the contest has been conducted," he said. "Whichever individual is selected, the party has been the big winner." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:08:34 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:08:34 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186saI-00052F-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:08:34 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sa6-0001St-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:08:22 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sZ5-0001Ro-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:07:19 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UD7CU27841 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:07:12 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UD7AA27779 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:07:10 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:09:07 +0200 Message-ID: <016801c28015$146001e0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:09:07.0546 (UTC) FILETIME=[877B2BA0:01C28015] Subject: [A-List] BP watch: forecasts revised, again Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:05:54 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:05:54 +0200 Cut, cut and cut again at BP Gold-plated performer loses lustre after dumping forecasts for third time Terry Macalister Wednesday October 30, 2002 The Guardian BP, Britain's biggest company and one of its most reliable performers, yesterday shocked the City by cutting its oil and gas output forecasts for the third time in eight weeks. The setback led to a fall in shares of 6% to 397p, their lowest for four years, further denting the formerly gold-plated reputation of chief executive Lord Browne. The country's most profitable group also reported a 13% fall in third quarter earnings to $2.3bn (£1.5bn) and downgraded its "self-help" targets for cost-cutting from $1.4bn for the year to between $1.2bn and $1.4bn. BP made clear it plans an attack on costs and underlined the threat to jobs by confirming a big shake-up was on the way for Sullom Voe, Europe's biggest oil and gas terminal. Output targets have become a key indicator for oil groups - Shell's shares were hammered last year when it admitted its forecasts were too optimistic. Lord Browne made little attempt to evade responsibility for the failure, admitting he had not left enough "headroom" for things to go wrong. He blamed the latest blow to upstream production targets on hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico as well as operational difficulties in Alaska and the North Sea. The company said it had added to its own problems by reallocating too much capital spending away from sustaining base production to longer term growth projects where it saw better returns. There had been no easy ways of bringing in new production through corporate acquisitions, said BP, because higher crude prices had left companies fully valued. "The past nine months have not been happy ones for this part of our operations. We had hoped to grow our oil and gas output by 5.5% for the year, but we have failed to do so," Lord Browne explained. "The net impact is that we now expect production growth of around 3% for 2002. This is deeply disappointing," he added. Long term targets were being reassessed, he said, as he rejects acquisitions as a means of getting out of trouble. The oil major had promised to increase output by between 5.5% to 7.0% between 2000 and 2005. It denied this ambitious goal had been shelved but said it would cost an extra $1bn to get there. "The key question we are now asking ourselves is: should we [spend that]?" An answer to that is promised at a full-year financial results briefing in February, along with detailed plans for cutting costs, including the possible sale of upstream assets. Lord Browne said the problems had led to a focus on efficiency, and whether the successive mergers with Amoco and Arco had led to too great a rise in overheads. "Field level costs are under control, but the question is the overheads we carry above them. We have too much complexity and a little middle-aged spread. We will address this," he said. Some cash would be saved through lower performance bonuses, including his own, but Lord Browne declined to comment on whether there would be a change in senior personnel. Over 550 people work at Sullom Voe in the Shetland Islands and part-owner BP admits there must be savings. Chief financial officer John Buchanan has already announced his retirement; he will be replaced on November 21 by Byron Grote, the chief executive of BP Chemicals. Analysts described the production failures as "very disappointing", and Merrill Lynch cut its recommendation from "buy" to "neutral". From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:10:35 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:10:35 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186scF-00052T-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:10:35 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sc2-0001Tf-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:10:22 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sb3-0001TH-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:09:22 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UD9EB30130 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:09:14 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UD9EA30068 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:09:14 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:11:10 +0200 Message-ID: <017001c28015$5dd67700$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:11:10.0780 (UTC) FILETIME=[D0EF2FC0:01C28015] Subject: [A-List] UK labour militancy: state sector Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:07:57 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:07:57 +0200 This winter we'll finally see New Labour's true colours Public sector workers have lost patience. Blair must show he's on their side Jackie Ashley Wednesday October 30, 2002 The Guardian Governing Britain has not been easy for Tony Blair since he first arrived as prime minister - the painfully slow progress in public services, the traumatic resignations of key lieutenants, the agonising decisions over Kosovo, the inch-by-inch struggle to achieve an Irish peace process, and the post-September 11 agenda, including Iraq. It has hardly been a smooth ride. But in one key area, traditionally the most important one, it has been a breeze: after the difficulties and brutal decisions of the John Major years, New Labour inherited an era of strong, stable economic growth. For the economy, these have been fat years. Much credit goes, inevitably, to Gordon Brown and his early decisions on the Bank of England and holding down spending; his repayment of debt; his relentless rhetoric of prudence. As a result, he has been able to raise taxes substantially and to start to squirt real sums of money at the frontline of public services without a massive revolt by the middle classes. And that has been something no Labour chancellor before him could have hoped to do. On the back of that, Blair has been able to push the idea of a reformed, modernised, pliant Labour movement - the very model of a modern "flexible" economy, a little America. Now, though, all of that is up for grabs. The economy is "well-placed" according to the Treasury, but times are harder and growth is weak; there is talk of a £7bn gap to be filled by new taxes. If the non-Westminster people I talk to are anything to go by, the middle classes are starting to chafe about taxes again, looking at their dodgy pensions and no longer being quite so smug about their wealth in bricks and mortar. A passing squall, not a murderous hurricane? Probably, but now we have the return of something harder for the government, our old 70s friend, inflationary wage demands. Many of the public sector workers who want to grab as much as they can can while the Treasury's taps are open have a case. The firefighters do far more today than they used to, from organising the nation's flood defences to safeguarding our football matches. The mood of the country is with them - if not for the full 40%, then certainly for a whacking increase. John Prescott has been sent in to negotiate, and the Fire Brigades Union leader, Andy Gilchrist, has already proved himself to be far from the Scargillite No 10 wanted to portray him as. The hard negotiating has only just begun, but it would be amazing if, despite all the tough talk from ministers, the FBU did not win a very substantial award, however phased in and disguised by talk of "radical modernisation". Hard on the heels of the firefighters come the hospital consultants, who are expected to turn down a 15% pay increase, because it would involve an increase in the hours worked for the NHS, and therefore the loss of some highly lucrative private work. The consultants - who deserve much less sympathy than the firefighters - increasingly seem to see themselves not as NHS staff but as powerful professionals in a booming market who, along with lawyers and City types, have every right to rake in as much as they possibly can. This is hardly new in the history of medicine, but the consultants' behaviour threatens the government's hopes for a revitalised NHS. They are like the firefighters in this, at least - the public needs them and the public knows it. It only starts with healers and dousers, though. There is a large array of public service staff, from paramedics to specialist teachers, from librarians to care workers who feel left behind. It is true that public sector pay increases are now outstripping the struggling private sector; but it is also true that this follows decades of relative decline. How much of this pressure on pay can be put down to the arrival of a new cohort of militant and anti-New Labour trade union leaders? Certainly it has taken years for the generation of pro-Blair trade unionists - delighted to see Labour back in power again and ready to urge patience on their members - to be eased aside by more independent and aggressive union leaders. True, too, that some of them - the RMT's Bob Crow, for example - display utter contempt for New Labour. But to dismiss the rising militancy of the public sector as a return of Scargillism is glib and wrong. Mostly, as with Andy Gilchrist, they have a wages and hours agenda, not a programme of political insurrection. No, the real political problem is that New Labour does not know how to respond. Should it intervene, or pull back? Should it buy off some public sector workers, but not others - and if so, which ones? The Treasury can, and does, growl that the new money is for reformed and more efficient services, in order to allow the welfare state to survive, not for inflationary wage demands. But after the grand rhetoric of the last Budget and the general election campaign, the government can hardly pretend that the coffers are bare. The post-Thatcher dogma that politicians shouldn't intervene in disputes does not hold when the disputes are with government employees. The problem is worsened by Labour's ambiguous attitude to devolution of power. Local authorities, hospitals and schools do have greater freedoms but the buck still stops in Whitehall. Perhaps nothing could have prevented that - but a more vigorous and whole-hearted attitude to passing management power down from the beginning would have helped now. Too late: instead we will get defiant language and back-room deals. Anyone who thinks that the FBU is being dealt with in a clinical, apolitical manner by Sir George Bain is simply naive. Wherever groups have some public sympathy and a direct role in our welfare, ministers will quietly intervene. And money so carefully hoarded and gathered by the Treasury to convince voters that we would have a Rolls-Royce health and education service will go, instead, into pay increases - many of which, to repeat, are thoroughly justified. The only way for the government to keep its programme on track is therefore a political offensive - a far more urgent attempt to persuade public sector workers that they share the same agenda, namely to build high quality public services. Both sides have to convince a sceptical electorate that paying higher taxes is worthwhile. If they don't, the political price will be high, with the government's domestic agenda collapsing into recrimination and chaos. New Labour will arrive at the next election having failed to deliver and the voters will, one way or another, exact their revenge. To prevent that happening, the government has to start to sound like a completely committed Labour government, one on the same side as public sector workers, not determined to crush them. For this time, Labour is struggling to protect not one service or another, but a whole culture of public service which is still in retreat from the me-first, market-driven society of modern Britain. Five years on, the battle is only beginning. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:12:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:12:36 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186seC-00052h-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:12:36 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sdy-0001UC-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:12:22 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sdV-0001U3-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:11:53 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UDBkq00442 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:11:46 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UDBiA00377 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:11:44 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:13:40 +0200 Message-ID: <017f01c28015$b75896a0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:13:40.0952 (UTC) FILETIME=[2A719D80:01C28016] Subject: [A-List] Scorched Earth: record bird migration Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:10:27 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:10:27 +0200 Antarctica's hungry birds seek shelter off Britain By Brian Unwin The Independent, 30 October 2002 We knew they wandered, but not this far. In a series of phenomenal journeys, the seabirds of the Southern Ocean, of Tristan da Cunha and the Falkland Islands and Antarctica, are coming to Britain and the north-east Atlantic in increasing numbers. Their unprecedented trips to the opposite end of the globe may be linked, some scientists think, to climate change and its effect on the productivity of plankton and the organisms at the bottom of the food chain. Great shearwaters, which should be back at their breeding colonies at Tristan da Cunha and Gough Island in the middle of the South Atlantic, 6,000 miles away, have this month been gathering off the Isles of Scilly; more than 300 have been seen. Sooty shearwaters, the nearest colonies of which are on the Falkland Islands 7,000 miles away, flocked to the North Sea in record numbers during September. Watchers counted 1,000 to 2,600 birds on 22 September. And tiny Wilson's petrels, which nest on rocky, ice-free coasts of Antarctica and offshore islands 8,000 miles away, and were virtually unknown in British waters 20 years ago, have been recorded on many days between late June and September. As well as sightings off the more expected south-westerly locations such as the Isles of Scilly, Cornwall, Clare and Kerry, one was discovered 15 miles from Blyth, Northumberland, the first recorded off eastern Britain. Black-browed albatrosses, which never normally fly north of the Equator, continue to be reported around Britain despite a declining world population. One was seen off St Kilda, the remotest of the Western Isles, in June, and another off Spurn at the mouth of the Humber last month. The red-billed tropicbird, which nest on islands off west and north-west Africa, was recorded for the first time in British waters in 2001 off south-west England. This year there were more sightings in the same area during March and April. Fea's petrels, which also nest on Atlantic islands off north-west Africa, are showing up more often. During September they were seen off the Yorkshire, Durham and Northumberland coasts, Scilly, Orkney and Cork. One reason for the numbers may be better bird-watching at sea. But Professor Dick Veit, an expert on climatic effects on seabird movements, believes there could also have been southern ocean climatic factors. Professor Veit, of the City University of New York, told The Independent: "There is substantial evidence from California waters and also from breeding grounds in New Zealand that sooty shearwaters declined by up to 90 per cent during 1987-1995. This is closely linked to the warming of the oceans. Such warming, and consequent reduction of planktivorous foods, might well also lead to increased dispersal and thus increased incidence in British waters." The black-browed albatross, great shearwater and Wilson's petrel fed in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic waters in the breeding season, he added. "Those oceans have warmed in the past 30 years, and it is likely that plankton populations have declined. Whether such a shortage of food would prompt exaggerated northwards dispersal is worth considering. "For black-browed albatrosses, we have data, based on satellite-tracking, that they respond to a shortage of food by dispersing greater distances. " He said UK sightings of Fea's petrel and tropicbird were harder to explain because less climate change data had been collected in the tropical Atlantic. "But in the Pacific, tropical seabirds have been covering vast distances after catastrophic breeding failures associated with El Niño events." Professor Bob Furness, a seabird expert at Glasgow University, said: "Dick's speculations are reasonable enough, but they are largely speculation. It would be worth studying whether plankton densities have decreased through the Southern Ocean and whether that is due to warming. I'm not aware of compelling evidence. "But his point that birds disperse further if food supply is reduced is well made, and certainly true. Lots of studies show that." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:14:34 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:14:34 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sg6-00052v-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:14:34 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sft-0001Ul-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:14:21 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sf7-0001Ub-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:13:33 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UDDQt02522 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:13:26 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UDDOA02460 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:13:24 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:15:21 +0200 Message-ID: <018701c28015$f31fa0c0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:15:21.0217 (UTC) FILETIME=[6634D710:01C28016] Subject: [A-List] UK labour militancy & public order Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:12:08 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:12:08 +0200 Fire chiefs say strike should be declared illegal By Paul Waugh, Deputy Political Editor The Independent, 30 October 2002 Government law officers have been asked to determine whether the threatened firefighters' strike could be declared illegal and strikers sent to jail for putting lives at risk. The hardline tactic was revealed ahead of a meeting in London today between fire authority employers and the FBU in an attempt to find a settlement. Both sides are being guarded about the chances of a breakthrough in the two-day negotiations on pay and the proposed Bain review of firefighters' conditions. The Independent has learnt that one fire authority has asked the Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith, if a strike can be declared illegal under Tory employment laws. The issue is understood to have been discussed at last week's meeting of the Government's national emergencies committee, Cobra. The 1992 Trade Union and Labour Relations (Consolidation) Act has a section which deems strikers who put public safety at risk to have committed a criminal act punishable by up to three months in prison. Section 240 (1) makes clear that an individual will break the law if he "wilfully or maliciously" breaks his contract while "knowing or having reasonable cause to believe" his action will "endanger human life or cause serious bodily injury". Although the FBU has balloted its members and called a legal strike, that would offer no defence from the criminal charge. Last night, a government source said the Attorney General's judgment was that attempting to declare a strike illegal was "a non-starter". Hopes of a settlement rose at the weekend when the union agreed to suspend its first two 48-hour stoppages, the first due yesterday, after the intervention of John Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister. But some employers are determined not to give ground to the FBU's pay claim of 40 per cent. Mr Prescott indicated to Andy Gilchrist, the FBU leader,that the employers could offer "something extra" to their 4 per cent pay offer if productivity could be improved. Local authority employers will today repeat their insistence that any deal would have to be linked to modernisation of practices, be consistent with the Bain review and be government funded. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:19:35 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:19:35 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186skx-00055L-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:19:35 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186skj-0001Xx-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:19:21 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sk3-0001Xi-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:18:40 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UDITd06514 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:18:29 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UDITA06452 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:18:29 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:20:25 +0200 Message-ID: <019801c28016$a88f61c0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:20:25.0655 (UTC) FILETIME=[1BAA6470:01C28017] Subject: [A-List] Germany: banking crisis? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:17:12 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:17:12 +0200 Are Germany's banks about to go the same way as their Japanese rivals? The major players cannot find enough profit growth to counter rising bad debts By Katherine Griffiths, Banking Correspondent The Independent, 30 October 2002 Disappointing results and a recent surge of profit warnings has heightened speculation about the collapse of one of Germany's big four banks, sparking fears of a banking crisis in Europe's largest economy. Until recently, analysts worrying about a brewing banking crisis after two-and-half-years of economic downturn have focused on Wall Street, where high-profile corporate scandals have left banks under intense scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers alike. But the slew of warnings from Germany's largest banks has shifted attention to Europe, with commentators warning of disturbing echoes of the banking crisis in Japan. The speculation has become so intense that leading German bankers have spent the past few days trying to assuage the markets' fears. Ernst Welteke, the president of the Bundesbank, said it was "dishonest" to talk of a banking crisis. Mr Welteke acknowledged that Germany's banks are having a rough time, due to the stagnant state of its economy and the sickliness of some of its largest companies. But he said Germany's banks would emerge "strengthened rather than weakened" from this latest bout of economic downturn. Mr Welteke's comments echoed senior banking executives'. Commerzbank's chairman Klaus-Peter Müller insisted that despite the bank's warning on Monday it might suffer a loss this year, it was not in the middle of a full-blown banking crisis. Neither statement bolstered confidence in the market. The German banks, which have already seen their shares hammered this year, yesterday suffered a further sell-off. One German banks analyst said: "Their shares are currently valued at about half of their book value. From the point of view of their equity, the German banks are already in crisis." Senior banking executives argue their underlying businesses are not in quite as bad a shape as the dramatic slump in their shares would suggest. But indications are more worrying. The spread on German banks' borrowing has more than tripled in the space of a month, indicating serious doubts in the market about the institutions' credit worthiness (See table). Some commentators have warned the recent pattern at the country's top four banks is looking worryingly similar to that of Japanese banks in the late 1990s, which were swamped by a mass of bad corporate debts following the spectacular bursting of its asset-price bubble. Germany may also be tottering on the edge of a deflationary spiral similar to the one Japan is now stuck in, increasing the risk of bad debts and making it more difficult for banks to offset the problem with new business from individuals and companies. HVB, Germany's second-largest bank, last week shocked the market by posting a deeper-than-expected third-quarter pre-tax loss, which included a doubling of provisions against loan losses. Commerzbank, the number three bank, has suffered a crisis of confidence among investors over rumours it has heavy derivative losses. Meanwhile, Germany's largest bank Deutsche has raised capital by selling off cross-holdings in other companies while Dresdner, owned by the insurance giant Allianz, is considering selling the most unprofitable bits of its business and slashing its headcount to preserve capital. But German banks' record on bad debts is actually quite respectable. One analyst said: "As a percentage of the loan book we expect German banks to take a charge of 0.8 to 1 per cent for the full year. A charge of that nature for UK banks would hardly make them sneeze." The trouble is German banks are either pocketing a negligible profit or have plunged into the red, making the effect of bad debts more serious than in the UK, where banks have still produced impressive returns for shareholders this year. Observers say that if there is a German banking crisis, it is in why this sector is so unprofitable compared with UK or US banks ­ a situation which has made it particularly ill-prepared to deal with the economic downturn. John Rushton, a consultant at analysts PA Consulting, found earlier this year that UK banks' return on capital is on average five-times higher than of the German big four, and the British banks' cost income ratios are between 20 and 40 per cent better than those in Germany. This lack of productivity and profitability in Germany have meant that Deutsche, despite being the third largest bank in the world, has a market capitalisation of less than Halifax in the UK. The reasons for the stodginess of Germany's banks lies in the political and economic role they have had in the last 50 years and, critics say, still have now. Dr Bob Hancke, a lecturer in political economy at the London School of Economics, said: "After the Second World War, a highly regimented financing system was needed as a way to create growth with very little capital." Just as in post-war Japan, in Germany banks to provided far more of the capital to drive industrial growth than the capital markets. This led to banks such as Deutsche taking large stakes in "national champions" such as the car maker Daimler Benz, to stop them from going under. In Germany's case, the government also underwrote a range of regional saving and corporate banks, which continue to compete with commercial banks for the business of individuals and companies. The savings banks, known as Sparkassen, and the regional development banks, known as Landesbanken , are in effect state-owned and have remained very powerful. Despite their high international profile, Germany's private banks only have a 20 per cent market share at home. This has meant even Germany's premier private banks are not competing on a level playing field, because their costs of lending remain much higher than these rivals, which are underwritten by the government. Those who are optimistic about Germany's banking sector say that the current economic crisis is acting as the nasty dose of medicine politicians need to finally renounce the post-war economic model, known as "Germany Incorporated". Last year the German government changed the capital gains tax rules. This allowed banks and insurers to start to unwind some of the massive cross-holdings they have in each other and in industry ­a change some senior executives have wanted to do since the mid-1990s to boost shareholders returns. Allianz has been praised for its decision to sell its holding in HVB, while taking control of Dresdner, which it is now subjecting to radical surgery to try to boost its profitability. At the same time banks and politicians are proving increasingly willing to let struggling companies fail rather than be propped up by the banking establishment. Kirch, the media empire, was the most high profile casualty of this new tougher line this summer. The final step is consolidation, which analysts say is urgently needed to strip out some of the over-capacity in banking market. There have been some attempts at this ­ HVB is the product of major mergers, while Deutsche has signalled it is scouting around for a deal outside Germany, possibly with Lloyds TSB. The stumbling block remains the public banks. Despite encouragement fromEuropean competition authorities, German politicians have made it clear they will not allow private banks to take over the state-sponsored banks. Yet the consensus is that Germany is not another Japan, and that if there is to be a high-profile failure from this downturn, it is still more likely to be in largest banking market in the world ­ the US. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:21:34 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:21:34 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sms-00055Z-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:21:34 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186smg-0001YU-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:21:22 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sly-0001YL-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:20:38 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UDKUC08949 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:20:30 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UDKTA08817 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:20:29 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:22:25 +0200 Message-ID: <01a001c28016$f040a740$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:22:25.0921 (UTC) FILETIME=[63598710:01C28017] Subject: [A-List] EU stability & growth pact: IMF weighs in Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:19:12 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:19:12 +0200 IMF tells eurozone to heed stability pact By Alan Beattie in Washington Financial Times: October 30 2002 The International Monetary Fund has weighed into the debate over the eurozone's stability and growth pact (SGP), arguing that the big three countries - Germany, France and Italy - should heed its message and make a concerted effort to tighten fiscal policy. The IMF also cut its forecast for economic growth in the eurozone and said that the European Central Bank should lean towards lowering interest rates - a recommendation rejected by a representative of the eurozone authorities at the IMF. In its annual assessment of the eurozone economy, released on Tuesday, the IMF admitted that the pact was "not beyond improvement", and welcomed the new focus on correcting for the economic cycle when targeting fiscal balance. But it said: "The core of the recent difficulties is not the SGP, but the difficulties the three largest countries are having in implementing fiscal consolidation." It said that Germany, France and Italy should tighten fiscal policy by 0.5 per cent of gross domestic product per year over the next several years until their budgets were in balance. "The SGP is a sound framework but it has a credibility problem," said Michael Deppler, director of the IMF department which covers the eurozone. A concerted effort by the big three would allow the ECB to plan for lower interest rates, and would prevent the smaller countries backsliding on their own efforts to tighten fiscal policy, he said. The IMF's criticism follows a fierce controversy within the eurozone about the stability and growth pact. Mr Deppler said he backed the European Commission view that the pact was necessary to enforce fiscal discipline but he said that the focus on setting nominal targets for budgets to be close to balance by 2004 was misplaced. In a gloomy assessment of the eurozone economy, the IMF cut its forecast for growth this year to 0.75 per cent from its 0.9 per cent projection in September, and to 2 per cent next year from its September forecast of 2.3 per cent. There remained significant downside risks to the forecast, with indebted companies and wary consumers possibly delaying the recovery, the IMF said. The ECB should adopt a loosening bias, but the bulk of the responsibility for boosting growth lay on structural reform in the eurozone economy, it said. In a statement released with the report, Harilaos Vittas, the Greek executive director on the IMF's governing board, rejected the advice for the ECB to lean towards reducing interest rates. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:32:11 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:32:11 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sx5-0005JT-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:32:07 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186swr-0001gb-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:31:53 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186svk-0001gO-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:30:44 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UDUbE19363 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:30:37 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UDUZA19301 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:30:35 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:32:32 +0200 Message-ID: <01a801c28018$59d99f80$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:32:32.0608 (UTC) FILETIME=[CCF69E00:01C28018] Subject: [A-List] EU integration struggles: the Big Three & CSDP Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:29:19 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:29:19 +0200 How clever of Schröder to position himself as the pivotal player in EU negotiations whilst Blair and Chirac fall out over both agriculture and now defence. However I wonder just how serious this is. After all, Chirac was a regular visitor on the quiet to Downing St, where he and Tony can parler en Francais like no other London-Paris axis in living memory. Perhaps it suited Chirac to have that relationship whilst cohabiting with Jospin, who was noticeably much cooler towards Blair than other social democrats in Europe. Since reelection, however, Chirac appears to be asserting himself much more confidently and using the full weight of the French state apparatus to push ahead on various fronts that had been ceded, in appearance at least, to other EU member states. Why? While there is no love lost between Schröder and Chirac, both I think understand the imperative of accelerated EU integration as a bulwark against US interference. Both are wary of US intentions in Iraq, and while Chirac has never been as categorical in his opposition to US adventurism in Iraq as Schröder, he does seem to have a more urgent belief in the necessity of a separate EU military identity. Dispute over defence force links with Nato By Judy Dempsey in Brussels FT.com, Last Updated: October 30 2002 4:00 The future of the European Union's fledgling European and Security Defence Policy is approaching a crossroads with Britain and France each determined to shape its direction. In what may be a test case for ESDP's future, Britain has made it clear it could not support the EU going into Macedonia without an accord with Nato. Diplomats said the dispute between London and Paris has exposed the ambiguities inherent in ESDP, set up as a defence arm of the EU power four years ago by Tony Blair, UK prime minister, and Jacques Chirac, French president. EU monitors backed by Nato troops are implementing a peace accord in Macedonia that would give the ethnic Albanian minority equality with the Macedonian Slav majority. London's insistence was spelt out in a letter sent at the weekend by Nigel Sheinwald, Britain's ambassador to the EU, to the Greek presidency, who chair defence matters for the EU. It was written after the Brussels summit where France, backed by Belgium and other countries, strongly suggested it wanted the Europeans to take over the Macedonian operation without a Nato agreement. EU diplomats said Mr Blair wants to use ESDP as an instrument for improving Europe's military capabilities through a strong institutional link to Nato. France views ESDP becoming in the long term more distant from, if not independent of, Nato. This explains why an accord with Nato, known as Berlin Plus, has been important for Britain and other countries to clinch. It would guarantee the EU access to Nato assets and planning if the organisation did not want to run the operation. Greece and Turkey, however, have for two years blocked agreement over Berlin Plus, precipitating moves by France and Belgium to try to launch ESDP in Macedonia without it. Frustration has been exacerbated by the slow pace in improving logistics, communications and strategic airlift, hardware the Europeans lack but which are essential if the ESDP is to launch its rapid reaction force in 2003. Some EU military experts said the Europeans could easily take over the Nato mission without Berlin Plus since most of the 700 soldiers are European. Other experts said the mission has an agreement with Nato's 1,200-strong Kfor Rear forces in Kosovo and Macedonia to provide security, search and extraction in case Nato or the EU monitors in Macedonia come under attack. "Are the Europeans prepared to duplicate all this security and personnel?" asked a military officer. Germany and Britain oppose any duplication. Germany said it needs all the troops it can muster for Afghanistan. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:35:14 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:35:14 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186szy-0005Pr-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:35:06 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186szi-0001hy-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:34:50 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186sy2-0001hL-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:33:06 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UDWxs21121 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:32:59 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UDWvA20988 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:32:57 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:34:54 +0200 Message-ID: <01b501c28018$ae3e8ae0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:34:54.0202 (UTC) FILETIME=[215C25A0:01C28019] Subject: [A-List] EU integration struggles: French assertiveness Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:31:40 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:31:40 +0200 Chirac struggles to hold back Europe By Anand Menon Financial Times: October 29 2002 For many observers, this weekend's French-inspired coup over European Union farm subsidies represented a triumph for Jacques Chirac. The French president is portrayed assuming the mantle of his predecessor, Charles de Gaulle, by getting Europe to do exactly what he wants. However, Mr Chirac's "success" must be viewed within the context of a France that is rapidly losing its dominance in Europe. Only too well aware of its declining influence, Paris has resorted to petty and cynical manoeuvring. The agreement to preserve the common agricultural policy, of which France is the largest beneficiary, is as much a means of saving face as of saving cash. Playing the Gaullist card goes down well in France, but in the EU French influence can no longer be exercised through a mixture of posturing and bullying Paris has always played a leading role in shaping European integration. If France wanted something - the CAP, monetary union with the Germans - it got it. And if France objected to something - as de Gaulle did to plans to increase the European Commission's powers - it generally did not happen. France been successful in an archetypically French way. When confronted with unpalatable institutional reform plans in the mid-1960s, the General simply withdrew French representatives to the European Community, effectively bringing it to a halt until his demands were met. He would have been proud of the bravado and obduracy exhibited recently by his Gaullist successor. Yet there are profound differences between what France is doing now and what de Gaulle did some 35 years ago. Then, in a European Community of six members, in which a Germany haunted by memories of the war kept a deliberately low profile, leadership was bound to emanate from Paris. With the Germans as their faithful allies, the French set about building a strong Europe with weak institutions. French leaders were happy in the knowledge that, ultimately, they would be able to shape its development and would not be tied into institutional structures capable of telling France what to do. This is no longer the case. In a European Union of 25 countries, it is more difficult to contain a Germany that not only is far more assertive but also will possess, in the new member states, natural allies on many issues. Enlargement threatens France's share of the CAP cake. It also challenges French aspirations to make Europe an effective counterweight to the US. Many of the accession countries are extremely wary of any foreign policy scheme that may put the transatlantic alliance in danger. A larger Union will become a more cumbersome entity. In procedural terms, it is hard to imagine how an enlarged EU can function without institutions that are significantly strengthened: the Commission simply does not at present enjoy the resources to police a single market of 25 states and decision-making will be extraordinarily difficult in a Council almost twice its current size. French influence, therefore, can no longer be exercised through a mixture of posturing and bullying. An enlarged EU will be one in which alliance building, negotiation and compromise are crucial. And, if it is to function well, it will be one in which strong institutions, notably the Commission and the Court, are necessary antecedents to an effective Europe. Paris will have to rethink its attitude towards supranational institutions and its own reluctance to comply with their strictures. Playing the Gaullist card in foreign affairs generally goes down well in France, as its current president knows only too well. Yet the French are getting their history wrong. For it is Margaret Thatcher's policies of the late 1980s, and not de Gaulle's of the 1960s, that are the most appropriate analogy for what is happening today. Unlike during her first and second terms, when she determinedly won Britain's budget rebate, Mrs Thatcher's hostile attitude towards European integration during her third term was based on a feeling of increasing isolation and impotence. The single market that she had done so much to create was being, as she saw it, threatened by French attempts to impose stricter social regulation. Despite her opposition, her partners pressed ahead with plans for monetary union. And Britain could do little but watch. This is precisely how Paris feels now. And the lesson of history does not provide great comfort. It is true Mr Chirac does not face the threat of the kind of palace coup that ultimately ousted the Iron Lady. Yet Mrs Thatcher's policies led to Britain's being marginalised in the EU - not something the French would enjoy. To be sure, Mr Chirac won a victory of sorts in Brussels. He cajoled a weak German chancellor, lacking a clear vision of the future of Europe, into accepting a deal that will hurt, not help Germany. Yet the president was acting from a position of weakness rather than strength. To equate the farm deal either with renewed French leadership in Europe or with a rebirth of the Franco-German axis is to misunderstand how much Europe has changed. The writer is director of the European Research Institute at the University of Birmingham From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:37:11 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:37:11 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186t1x-0005e7-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:37:09 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186t1f-0001iv-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:36:51 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186t0n-0001ie-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:35:57 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UDZnm24098 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:35:49 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UDZmA24034 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:35:48 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:37:45 +0200 Message-ID: <01bd01c28019$14312ce0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:37:45.0233 (UTC) FILETIME=[874D6810:01C28019] Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Europe Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:34:32 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:34:32 +0200 US officials to be posted to UK ports By Toby Shelley in London Ft.com, Last Updated: October 30 2002 The government will in November announce a deal to post US customs officials in UK ports. The agreement follows pressure by America on trading partners after the September 11 attacks, to bolster US port security by transferring risk assessment overseas. Details are being finalised but the agreement is certain with a formal announcement of a signing date likely in a fortnight, according to a customs and excise official. US officers could then be in place "almost immediately". US customs officials will operate as observers alongside their British counterparts at Felixstowe and Southampton container terminals. The terminals at Liverpool and Thamesport may also be included. UK customs says there is a precedent for the deal. US immigration officers have been posted at Heathrow to reduce queuing at major US airports. Customs authorities in Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and France signed similar agreements with the US over the summer. There, US officers assess information about each container and request searches or carry out scans. The US has drawn up a list of 20 ports worldwide from which most inbound containers originate and where it wanted new security measures. Felixstowe was the only UK port on the list. However, other UK container terminals were concerned that their exports would face extra scrutiny and hence delays in the US if they were not included in an arrangement. John Dempster, of the UK Major Ports Group, said now that fears over parity of treatment had been allayed, it was important to ensure UK ports were not left behind European competitors. Container traffic is seen as posing a major potential security threat whether in the form of a 'bomb in a box' or as a means of transporting material. In 2001, some 7.8m containers of import cargo moved through US ports. The proposal to post officers overseas was part of the US customs Container Security Initiative that irked many in the European transport industry who wanted a more multilateral approach. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:41:07 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:41:07 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186t5h-0005hD-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:41:01 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186t5U-0001ms-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:40:48 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186t46-0001mV-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:39:22 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UDdEU27883 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:39:14 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UDdCA27811 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:39:12 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:41:09 +0200 Message-ID: <01c501c28019$8e13df80$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:41:09.0702 (UTC) FILETIME=[012CE660:01C2801A] Subject: [A-List] Argentina: playing chicken with IMF Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:37:56 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:37:56 +0200 Argentina plays dangerous game with IMF By Alan Beattie Financial Times: October 30 2002 While the world's financial markets have been focusing nervously on Brazil, a hazardous game of chicken has been unfolding in neighbouring Argentina. Ten months ago, Argentina suffered the fate Brazil is desperately hoping to avoid and defaulted on its sovereign debt. Now it has just two weeks left to come up with a $750m payment to avoid defaulting to the World Bank as well as to its private creditors. Default to the multilateral financial institutions is a last resort, generally only taken by countries such as Iraq or Somalia when their governments are such international pariahs they have little to lose. And while few believe the Argentines will actually go over the brink, it has given them a new weapon in their interminable negotiations with the bank's sister institution, the International Monetary Fund. The Argentine government wants the IMF to roll over payments on its $13bn outstanding debt to the fund. Without this, it says, it will not be able to make the payment to the bank. Roberto Lavagna, Argentine finance minister, came to the IMF annual meetings in Washington last month with his sabre all ready to rattle. "Usually when you are negotiating you don't explain the next move," he told reporters. "But there are some positions which Argentina will defend absolutely." Chief among these, he said, was protecting Argentina's social security system, and if it was a choice between keeping that going and paying the bank, he would choose the former. The Argentine government has already shown its willingness to break norms of behaviour vis-a-vis the multilateral financial institutions by defaulting on a $250m loan to private creditors which was backed by a World Bank guarantee. Publicly, the IMF insists it is not going to be blackmailed. "I wouldn't say our posture is at all related to the issue of the [World Bank] payments," says Tom Dawson, the IMF's director of external relations. The IMF is keen not to be bounced into signing a new agreement, fearing the loss of credibility if it goes off track. The World Bank, too, has been affecting nonchalance. James Wolfensohn, president of the World Bank, says that the bank would survive a default, though he "wouldn't like it much". But progress in talks has accelerated over the past few weeks, and there is little doubt among observers that the prospect of default adds to the pressure on the Fund. "The IMF wants to avoid becoming an issue in the forthcoming Argentine election," says Alberto Ades, head of emerging markets strategy at Goldman Sachs in New York. "There is political pressure on the fund to reach an agreement." Still, there remain considerable areas of disagreement between the IMF and Argentina. Some bones of contention are so old they have grown mouldy in the chewing, such as the disputes over plans to unfreeze bank accounts without creating a run on the currency. And as the detail of an agreement is hammered out, new tensions have arisen, such as the IMF's request that utilities bills rise to cover the costs of the service companies whose dollar-denominated debts threaten to overwhelm them. A recent draft of the "letter of intent" - the agreement between Argentina and the IMF - seen by the Financial Times still has a challenging amount of square brackets and white space. Mr Aldes' best guess is that despite their protestations, the Argentines will scrape together enough dollar reserves to make the World Bank payment by the deadline of November 9 with the understanding that an IMF agreement is to be signed within a couple of weeks after that. But at best, this will be an uneasy truce. Huge questions remain unresolved. The letter of intent talks vaguely of a future "comprehensive reform of the state" including changes to the civil service, social security and health care systems, for which the legislative enthusiasm in Argentina is likely to be low. And the level of trust between the two sides does not seem to have improved, despite the progress made in talks. "Making an agreement comes down to a matter of political will," says one senior Argentine official. Indeed it does, IMF officials privately say, and argue that without agreements sufficiently detailed that they can act as an effective constraint on Argentina's unruly political system, any deal that relies purely on trust may well come unravelled. Argentina seems likely to get its rollover agreement during the coming weeks, even days. But this may owe at least something to the old adage, adapted for the occasion by CSFB's director of Latin American economics, Lacey Gallagher: "If you owe the bank $100, it is your problem. If you owe the multilateral institutions $13bn, it is their problem." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:42:16 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:42:16 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186t6n-0005ii-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:42:09 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186t6S-0001nU-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:41:48 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186t5X-0001n0-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:40:51 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UDeiu28969 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:40:44 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UDegA28842 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:40:42 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:42:39 +0200 Message-ID: <01cd01c28019$c39a4400$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:42:39.0530 (UTC) FILETIME=[36B790A0:01C2801A] Subject: [A-List] Uruguay: political crisis Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:39:26 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:39:26 +0200 Uruguay faces fresh crisis By Mark Mulligan in Santiago and Agencies in Montevideo Financial Times: October 30 2002 Jorge Batlle, the Uruguayan president, faced a fresh political crisis on Tuesday after five cabinet ministers said they would resign over his handling of the country's economic meltdown. The five, all from the junior coalition National party, are expected to formalise their resignations after a meeting of party members this weekend. However, there is still a slim chance they will reverse their decision, announced late on Monday. Either way, their withdrawal of support is a serious blow to Mr Batlle, who is grappling with the financial fall-out of the Argentine crisis and the consequent erosion of public support. Pressure from Luis Lacalle, a former president and leader of the National party, forced Mr Batlle to dismiss his finance minister in July. One of the first jobs of the new minister, Alejandro Atchugarry, was to impose banking controls, after a run on deposits - led by nervous or cash-starved Argentines - reduced central bank reserves from about $3bn (£1.9bn, ?3.05bn) to less than $1bn in six months, and only after an injection of funds from the International Monetary Fund and other multilateral lenders. The IMF stepped in with another $3bn package in August, which has helped calm currency markets and bank depositors. After losing about 50 per cent of its value since June, the Uruguayan peso has recently shown signs of becoming steadier. However, a four-year recession, echoing the chronic downturn in neighbouring Argentina, has driven up unemployment to historic highs and fuelled social unrest and increasing industrial action by public service workers. Economists estimate the economy could shrink by more than 10 per cent this year. Monday's resignations confirmed the growing rift in the coalition, which was elected in 2000. Mr Batlle is serving a five-year term. Tension reached breaking point on Monday when Mr Lacalle publicly expressed regrets at supporting Mr Batlle in his campaign for the presidency. Mr Lacalle's party has grown restive with the government's handling of the economic crisis, and he charged that the National party was "not appreciated by the Batlle government". The two-party coalition is expected to continue working together in Congress, ensuring passage of economic reform laws. But Sen. Luis Heber, of the National party, said his party needed a greater say. "Until now we have had cabinet ministers without any votes," he said, likening it to "eating the peel but not the fruit". From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 06:58:16 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:58:16 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186tME-000666-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:58:06 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186tLx-0001xL-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:57:49 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186tKD-0001uN-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:56:01 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UDtrX10805 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:55:53 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UDtpA10732 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:55:51 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:57:47 +0200 Message-ID: <01f201c2801b$e0ddcda0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 13:57:47.0639 (UTC) FILETIME=[53FE0070:01C2801C] Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Gore Vidal critique Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:54:34 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:54:34 +0200 Gore Vidal claims 'Bush junta' complicit in 9/11 America's most controversial novelist calls for an investigation into whether the Bush administration deliberately allowed the terrorist attacks to happen Sunder Katwala Sunday October 27, 2002 America's most controversial writer Gore Vidal has launched the most scathing attack to date on George W Bush's Presidency, calling for an investigation into the events of 9/11 to discover whether the Bush administration deliberately chose not to act on warnings of Al-Qaeda's plans. Vidal's highly controversial 7000 word polemic titled 'The Enemy Within' - published in the print edition of The Observer today - argues that what he calls a 'Bush junta' used the terrorist attacks as a pretext to enact a pre-existing agenda to invade Afghanistan and crack down on civil liberties at home. Vidal writes: 'We still don't know by whom we were struck that infamous Tuesday, or for what true purpose. But it is fairly plain to many civil libertarians that 9/11 put paid not only to much of our fragile Bill of Rights but also to our once-envied system of government which had taken a mortal blow the previous year when the Supreme Court did a little dance in 5/4 time and replaced a popularly elected President with the oil and gas Bush-Cheney junta.' Vidal argues that the real motive for the Afghanistan war was to control the gateway to Eurasia and Central Asia's energy riches. He quotes extensively from a 1997 analysis of the region by Zgibniew Brzezinski, formerly national security adviser to President Carter, in support of this theory. But, Vidal argues, US administrations, both Democrat and Republican, were aware that the American public would resist any war in Afghanistan without a truly massive and widely perceived external threat. 'Osama was chosen on aesthetic grounds to be the frightening logo for our long-contemplated invasion and conquest of Afghanistan ... [because] the administration is convinced that Americans are so simple-minded that they can deal with no scenario more complex than the venerable, lone, crazed killer (this time with zombie helpers) who does evil just for the fun of it 'cause he hates us because we're rich 'n free 'n he's not.' Vidal also attacks the American media's failure to discuss 11 September and its consequences: 'Apparently, "conspiracy stuff" is now shorthand for unspeakable truth.' 'It is an article of faith that there are no conspiracies in American life. Yet, a year or so ago, who would have thought that most of corporate America had been conspiring with accountants to cook their books since - well, at least the bright dawn of the era of Reagan and deregulation.' At the heart of the essay are questions about the events of 9/11 itself and the two hours after the planes were hijacked. Vidal writes that 'astonished military experts cannot fathom why the government's "automatic standard order of procedure in the event of a hijacking" was not followed'. These procedures, says Vidal, determine that fighter planes should automatically be sent aloft as soon as a plane has deviated from its flight plan. Presidential authority is not required until a plane is to be shot down. But, on 11 September, no decision to start launching planes was taken until 9.40am, eighty minutes after air controllers first knew that Flight 11 had been hijacked and fifty minutes after the first plane had struck the North Tower. 'By law, the fighters should have been up at around 8.15. If they had, all the hijacked planes might have been diverted and shot down.' Vidal asks why Bush, as Commander-in-Chief, stayed in a Florida classroom as news of the attacks broke: 'The behaviour of President Bush on 11 September certainly gives rise to not unnatural suspicions.' He also attacks the 'nonchalance' of General Richard B Myers, acting Joint Chief of Staff, in failing to respond until the planes had crashed into the twin towers. Asking whether these failures to act expeditiously were down to conspiracy, coincidence or error, Vidal notes that incompetence would usually lead to reprimands for those responsible, writing that 'It is interesting how often in our history, when disaster strikes, incompetence is considered a better alibi than .... Well, yes, there are worse things.' Vidal draws comparisons with another 'day of infamy' in American history, writing that 'The truth about Pearl Harbour is obscured to this day. But it has been much studied. 11 September, it is plain, is never going to be investigated if Bush has anything to say about it.' He quotes CNN reports that Bush personally asked Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle to limit Congressional investigation of the day itself, ostensibly on grounds of not diverting resources from the anti-terror campaign. Vidal calls bin Laden an 'Islamic zealot' and 'evil doer' but argues that 'war' cannot be waged on the abstraction of 'terrorism'. He says that 'Every nation knows how - if it has the means and will - to protect itself from thugs of the sort that brought us 9/11 ... You put a price on their heads and hunt them down. In recent years, Italy has been doing that with the Sicilian Mafia; and no-one has suggested bombing Palermo.' Vidal also highlights the role of American and Pakistani intelligence in creating the fundamentalist terrorist threat: 'Apparently, Pakistan did do it - or some of it' but with American support. "From 1979, the largest covert operation in the history of the CIA was launched in response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan ... the CIA covertly trained and sponsored these warriors.' Vidal also quotes the highly respected defence journal Jane's Defence Weekly on how this support for Islamic fundamentalism continued after the emergence of bin Laden: 'In 1988, with US knowledge, bin Laden created Al-Qaeda (The Base); a conglomerate of quasi-independent Islamic terrorist cells spread across 26 or so countries. Washington turned a blind eye to Al-Qaeda.' Vidal, 77, and internationally renowned for his award-winning novels and plays, has long been a ferocious, and often isolated, critic of the Bush administration at home and abroad. He now lives in Italy. In Vidal's most recent book, The Last Empire, he argued that 'Americans have no idea of the extent of their government's mischief ... the number of military strikes we have made unprovoked, against other countries, since 1947 is more than 250.' From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 07:02:16 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 07:02:16 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186tQ8-0006Af-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 07:02:08 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186tPl-0001zJ-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 07:01:45 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186tO7-0001yZ-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 07:00:03 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UDxtm14196 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:59:55 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UDxrA14067 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:59:53 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 16:01:50 +0200 Message-ID: <01fa01c2801c$71a259a0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 14:01:50.0530 (UTC) FILETIME=[E4C43A20:01C2801C] Subject: [A-List] BP watch: jostling over Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:58:37 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:58:37 +0200 Interesting... in the Financial Times' extended puff of "Lord" Browne last summer much was made of BP's supposed aversion to lining the pockets of politicians and greasing palms, etc. Perhaps the folly of such high-mindedness is coming home to roost as Bush-backers Exxon and Chevron get ready for any coming carve-up of Iraq. BP chief fears US will carve up Iraqi oil riches Terry Macalister Wednesday October 30, 2002 The Guardian Lord Browne, chief executive of BP and one of New Labour's favourite industrialists, has warned Washington not to carve up Iraq for its own oil companies in the aftermath of any future war. The comments from the most senior European oil executive, who has impeccable political connections in the UK, will be seen by anti-war protesters as further proof that US president George Bush has already made his mind up about an early attack. They will also serve to underline concern that the US is primarily concerned with seizing control of Saddam Hussein's oil and handing it over to companies such as ExxonMobil rather than destroying his weapons of mass destruction. Britain's biggest company is reviewing what impact a regime change in Baghdad would have on its own business and global crude supplies. Both London and Washington have been lobbied by the UK oil giant, which is concerned that European companies could be left out in the cold. "We have let it be known that the thing we would like to make sure, if Iraq changes regime, is that there should be a level playing field for the selection of oil companies to go in there if they're needed to do the work there," said Lord Browne yesterday at a briefing on the company's results. Lord Browne said that most exploration for new supplies had halted there when the Iraqis nationalised their industry. But he believed there was a plenty of oil and gas waiting to be discovered in Iraq and that BP should be in prime position to capitalise because it had found most of the country's oil before being thrown out in the 1970s. BP said it had had no contact with Baghdad since 1989. Iraq's reserves amount to 115bn barrels of oil, making it the biggest source of oil in the world behind Saudi Arabia. Lord Browne's views will be listened to carefully in Downing Street because the BP executive team has such close links with the UK government that it was once dubbed Blair Petroleum. A number of former BP executives, such as Lord Simon, have been seconded into Whitehall while one of Mr Blair's personal assistants, Anji Hunter, joined Lord Browne's team. Impending war with Iraq has given a financial boost to BP and other western oil firms by driving up the price of oil to $27 per barrel. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 08:39:46 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:39:46 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186uwZ-0007Bg-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:39:43 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186uwH-0002i9-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:39:25 -0700 Received: from fep03-svc.mail.telepac.pt ([194.65.5.202]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186uio-0002TQ-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:25:30 -0700 Received: from jorge.mail.telepac.pt ([213.13.29.153]) by fep03-svc.mail.telepac.pt (InterMail vM.5.01.04.13 201-253-122-122-113-20020313) with ESMTP id <20021030152457.UWCW5400.fep03-svc.mail.telepac.pt@jorge.mail.telepac.pt> for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:24:57 +0000 Message-Id: <5.0.2.1.0.20021030145308.00a65cc0@mail.telepac.pt> X-Sender: jfigueir@mail.telepac.pt X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0.2 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: Jorge Figueiredo Subject: Re: [A-List] TFP interpela a Lula y Serra In-Reply-To: <00f001c28006$6ee8b9e0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> References: <20021029180626.0F9BF6CB2A@tino.sinectis.com.ar> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="=====================_20292515==_.ALT" Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:23:29 +0000 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:23:29 +0000 --=====================_20292515==_.ALT Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Michael: The ideological roots of TFP are the integrist current of catholic church. This sect was founded by Plinio Correia de Oliveira in Sao Paulo, Brazil, in years '60. It's a sect that practice wishful thinking with their adepts, recruted between petit-bourgeosie class. At the moment that the bishops of brazilian catholic church turn to left, with "liberation theology", this organization intend to make contre-steam to return to reactionaire tradition of church. But TFP it's not representative in brazilian politics. It's only a lot of crazies with a agressive posture in street manifestations (with flags with a gold lion). TFP defend the cult of Jesus mother, auto-flagellation (yes, with whips and chains around the body) and supplication. In Brazil TFP is a ridicule and ridicularized organization. In Portugal there are some traces of their presence. I don't would waste time with this organization. If you want more information about TFP you could to watch their web site at http://www.tfp.org.br/ Kind regards of Jorge At 13:21 30-10-2002 +0200, you wrote: >However, it would be good to know a little more about TFP. How powerful is >it? Does it have a large membership? Is it influential, and if so, in what >circles? Is TFP worth monitoring or is it just another group of right >wingers that is going nowhere? > >Thanks for your help, > >Michael --=====================_20292515==_.ALT Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Michael:
The ideological roots of TFP are the integrist current
of catholic church.  This sect was founded by Plinio
Correia de Oliveira in Sao Paulo, Brazil, in years '60.
It's a sect that practice wishful thinking with their adepts,
recruted between petit-bourgeosie class.  At the moment
that the bishops of brazilian catholic church turn to left,
with "liberation theology", this organization intend
to make contre-steam to return to reactionaire
tradition of church.
But TFP it's not representative in brazilian politics.
It's only a lot of crazies with a agressive posture
in street manifestations (with flags with a gold
lion).  TFP defend the cult of Jesus mother,
auto-flagellation (yes, with whips and chains
around the body) and supplication.
In Brazil TFP is a ridicule and ridicularized
organization.  In Portugal there are some
traces of their presence. I don't would waste
time with this organization.
If you want more information about TFP
you could to watch their web site at
http://www.tfp.org.br/
Kind regards of
                        Jorge
  At 13:21 30-10-2002 +0200, you wrote:
However, it would be good to know a little more about TFP. How powerful is
it? Does it have a large membership? Is it influential, and if so, in what
circles? Is TFP worth monitoring or is it just another group of right
wingers that is going nowhere?

Thanks for your help,

Michael
--=====================_20292515==_.ALT-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 08:41:42 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:41:42 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186uyS-0007CO-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:41:40 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186uyB-0002ig-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:41:23 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186uxf-0002iX-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:40:52 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UFeia29749 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:40:44 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UFegA29687 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:40:42 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:42:39 +0200 Message-ID: <021001c2802a$8750dac0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 15:42:39.0967 (UTC) FILETIME=[FA830EF0:01C2802A] Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Iraq, WMD & double standards Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:39:26 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:39:26 +0200 Thanks to John Cox for this: US weapons secrets exposed Julian Borger in Washington Tuesday October 29, 2002 The Guardian Respected scientists on both sides of the Atlantic warned yesterday that the US is developing a new generation of weapons that undermine and possibly violate international treaties on biological and chemical warfare. The scientists, specialists in bio-warfare and chemical weapons, say the Pentagon, with the help of the British military, is also working on "non-lethal" weapons similar to the narcotic gas used by Russian forces to end last week's siege in Moscow. They also point to the paradox of the US developing such weapons at a time when it is proposing military action against Iraq on the grounds that Saddam Hussein is breaking international treaties. Malcolm Dando, professor of international security at the University of Bradford, and Mark Wheelis, a lecturer in microbiology at the University of California, say that the US is encouraging a breakdown in arms control by its research into biological cluster bombs, anthrax and non-lethal weapons for use against hostile crowds, and by the secrecy under which these programmes are being conducted. "There can be disagreement over whether what the United States is doing represents violations of treaties," Mr Wheelis told the Guardian. "But what is happening is at least so close to the borderline as to be destabilising." In a paper to be published soon in the scientific journal Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the two academics focus on recent US actions that have served to undermine the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention. In a move that stunned the international community last July, the US blocked an attempt to give the convention some teeth with inspections, so that member countries could check if others were keeping the agreement. Mr Dando believes Washington's motive for torpedoing the deal, which had the support of its allies, was to maintain secrecy over US research work on biological weapons. He said that work includes: CIA efforts to copy a Soviet cluster bomb designed to disperse biological weapons A project by the Pentagon to build a bio-weapon plant from commercially available materials to prove that terrorists could do the same thing Research by the Defence Intelligence Agency into the possibility of genetically engineering a new strain of antibiotic-resistant anthrax A programme to produce dried and weaponised anthrax spores, officially for testing US bio-defences, but far more spores were allegedly produced than necessary for such purposes and it is unclear whether they have been destroyed or simply stored. In each case, the US argued the research work was being done for defensive purposes, but their legality under the BWC is questionable, the scientists argue. For example, a clause in the biological weapons treaty forbids signatories from producing or developing "weapons, equipment or means of delivery designed to use such agents or toxins for hostile purposes or in armed conflict". Furthermore, signatories agreed to make annual declarations about their biodefence programmes, but the US never mentioned any of those programmes in its reports. Instead, they emerged from leaks and press reporting. The focus on Washington's biological and chemical weapons programme comes at an awkward time for the Bush administration, which is locked in negotiations at the UN for a tough resolution on arms inspections of Iraq. According to Mr Dando, British and US research into hallucinogenic weapons such as the gas BZ encouraged Iraq to look into similar agents. "We showed them the way," he said. Mr Dando added that the US was currently working on "non-lethal" weapons similar to the gas Russian forces used to break the Moscow theatre siege. Those include "calmative" agent which are designed to knock people out without killing them. "What happened in Moscow is a harbinger of what is to come," Mr Dando said. "There is a revolution in life sciences which could be applied in a major way to warfare. It's an early example of the mess we may be creating." He added that Britain "is implicated as well", as the Pentagon's Joint Non-Lethal Weapons Directorate has worked with British officers on its research. Jonathan Tucker, a chemical weapons expert at the US Institute for Peace in Washington, said much of the work on non-lethal weapons was being carried out by an institute under the US justice department but was funded by the Pentagon. "They are trying to keep it at arms length, but it is problematic especially for military purposes. The chemical weapons convention makes a very clear distinction between riot control and incapacitants," he said. While Mr Tucker believes that such knock-out gases are explicitly banned under the treaty, Mr Dando and Mr Wheelis believe the Pentagon has exploited a loophole that allows for such weapons for "law enforcement purposes". But by blurring the edges of the treaty, they argue the US is inviting other countries to do the same. The US, Mr Dando said, "runs the very real danger of leading the world down a pathway that will greatly reduce the security of all." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 08:57:44 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:57:44 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186vDy-0007KA-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:57:42 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186vDf-0002kz-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:57:23 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186v9C-0002jw-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:52:46 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9UFqco06235 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:52:38 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9UFqbA06173 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:52:37 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:54:34 +0200 Message-ID: <021c01c2802c$312c5320$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: References: <20021029180626.0F9BF6CB2A@tino.sinectis.com.ar> <5.0.2.1.0.20021030145308.00a65cc0@mail.telepac.pt> Subject: Re: [A-List] TFP interpela a Lula y Serra MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0219_01C2803C.F49B3280" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 15:54:34.0467 (UTC) FILETIME=[A4631B30:01C2802C] Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:51:21 +0200 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:51:21 +0200 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0219_01C2803C.F49B3280 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Thanks Jorge for the information. If I had seen the website before then = I think even my linguistic limitations would have coped with the words = "Tradicao, Familia, Propriedade". Just one more thing: what is TFP's position on Lula? The TFP site has links to other organisations internationally, including = a North American TFP, a French TFP, and various other outfits in = Argentina, Italy and Germany. The Italian outfit, Luci sull'Est, has an = English website in which the exploits of its members and heroes are = recorded amid pious references to Our Lady of Fatima. Among these is = reference to Correa's single-handed and successful effort to destroy the = Soviet Union: > Light over the East began on a December night in 1990 > as a group of Catholics from the West set out on a > dilapidated Soviet train from Vilnius to Moscow. They=20 > were on their way to give Soviet dictator Mikhail=20 > Gorbachev 5.2 million signatures of people in the West=20 > who wished to express support for Catholic Lithuania's=20 > newly reaffirmed independence. These signatures had=20 > been collected in a petition drive initiated by the=20 > distinguished Catholic thinker and man of action Prof.=20 > Plinio Corr=EAa de Oliveira. I've wasted enough time with this organisation. Michael ------=_NextPart_000_0219_01C2803C.F49B3280 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Thanks Jorge for the information. If I = had seen the=20 website before then I think even my linguistic limitations would have = coped with=20 the words "Tradicao, Familia, Propriedade".
 
Just one more thing: what is TFP's = position on=20 Lula?
 
The TFP site has links to other = organisations=20 internationally, including a North American TFP, a French TFP, and = various other=20 outfits in Argentina, Italy and Germany. The Italian outfit, Luci = sull'Est, has=20 an English website in which the exploits of its members and heroes are = recorded=20 amid pious references to Our Lady of Fatima. Among these is reference to = Correa's single-handed and successful effort to destroy the Soviet=20 Union:
 
> Light over the East began on a December night in 1990
> as a group of Catholics from the West set out on a
> dilapidated Soviet train from Vilnius to Moscow.  They
> were on their way to give Soviet dictator Mikhail
> Gorbachev 5.2 million signatures of people in the West
> who wished to express support for Catholic Lithuania=92s =
> newly reaffirmed independence. =20 These signatures had
> been collected in a petition drive initiated by the
> distinguished Catholic thinker and man of action Prof.
> Plinio Corr=EAa de Oliveira.
 
I've wasted enough time with this=20 organisation.
 
Michael
 
------=_NextPart_000_0219_01C2803C.F49B3280-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 14:35:19 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 14:35:19 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1870Uh-0000gZ-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 14:35:19 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1870St-0004u0-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 14:33:27 -0700 Received: from mta6.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.240]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1870SS-0004tr-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 14:33:00 -0700 Received: from sabri ([66.124.233.210]) by mta6.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H4T00K9OD6WW4@mta6.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:32:59 -0800 (PST) From: Sabri Oncu To: PEN-L , ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] A Turkish neoliberal on China Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:32:18 -0800 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:32:18 -0800 Below is a Turkishtime interview with Mehmet Ogutcu. Mehmet Ogutcu is the person below. He thinks he is leftist, along the lines of Kemal Dervis I suppose, and I know this because I met him in this cyberspace more than once. Best, Sabri +++++++++++++++++++ WHO IS MEHMET OGUTCU? Mehmet Ogutcu, works currently in the OECD (Organization of Economic cooperation and Development) Secretariat in Paris as the head of Global Forum on International Investment and Relations with Non-Member States. Before he joined the OECD in 1994, he worked as a foreign ministry official in Ankara, Beijing, Brussels and Paris; in Is Bank and at the Prime Ministry Press-Publication General Directorate. Presently, besides his duty in the OECD, he teaches on Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe economies at the University of Dundee and London School of Oriental and African Studies. He has numerous articles and books published about energy geopolitics in Turkey and abroad, The Chinese economic domain, Russia, international investments, Central Asia, the Balkans, bribery and corruption and the European Union. His reports, "The New Economic Super Power, China and Turkey" (1994) and "Towards A New Foreign Economic Relations Strategy for Turkey" (1998) were published by TUSIAD. His book "Does Our Future Lie in Asia?" (1999) is published by Milliyet Publications. His forthcoming book entitled, "The 2023 Turkey Vision" will soon be published. +++++++++++++++++++++++ LET'S NOT MISS THE CHINESE BOAT! WE DISCUSSED THE SECRETS BEHIND THE "CHINESE WONDER" AND ITS FUTURE WITH MEHMET OGUTCU WHO KNOWS AND WATCHES CHINA VERY CLOSELY. OGUTCU'S WORDS OF CAUTION FOR THE TURKISH BUSINESS COMMUNITY APPLY NOT ONLY TO TURKISH BUSINESSMEN, BUT TO ANYONE THINKING OF ENTERING THE CHINESE MARKET. TURKISHTIME: Can you sum up the foreign capital strategy for China to be practised for the period ahead? What kinds of developments are taking place? MEHMET OGUTCU: China, which looks set to surmount the $50 billion foreign direct investment threshold by the end of this year, aims to double this amount over the next five years. I am referring to annual capital inflows. Since 1978, gross foreign direct investment has soared to levels of over $400 billion. Bearing in mind that last year, international investments were cut by more than 50%, the world economy shrank and that the same downward trend is to linger-on this year, the performance of China is really impressive. Its entry to the World Trade Organization last year, its substantial openings in the services sector and improvement of the investment environment by speeding legal and institutional reforms consolidated the confidence of investors in this country. Next month, fourth generation leaders (Hu Juntang and his team) are going to be taking over the administration in the Communist Party Congress. It seems as if the political rule won't be shaken. Foreign companies that have produced traditionally with the help of cheap input/labor factors and exports now revamp their business strategies, seriously taking into account the Chinese domestic market and technology production. China, wants to break away from being a center of cheap production and hop on to the position of a country drawing increasing rates of quality foreign capital. It wants quality, long-term foreign capital that integrates with the national economy, elevates environmental and social conditions and invests on research and development. It revises its strategies accordingly. How will the WTO membership come to play on China's foreign capital strategy? The WTO membership should not be seen limited to trade liberalization and market opening. A historical decision to profoundly influence the economy was made. It should even be expected for middle and long-term competition to make a democratizing effect on the political system. Surely, the WTO membership has buoyed up the reliability of China in international markets. Next to edging away trade protectionism, it alleviated the risk premium of the production investments oriented for exports within the country. This, to a great extent, will reshape the global distribution of capital investments in favor of China. All indicators reveal that especially with the possibility of company takeovers and mergers and the opening in the services sector, the volume and quality of foreign capital will climb record highs. Foreigners will be able to buy stakes from Chinese state owned enterprises even if this won't be dubbed, privatization. Ownership rights are expected to be concurred in the next Communist Party Congress. In the new period, the foreign capital in the manufacturing industry will be waning; in return the investments in the services sector are to be pumped up. In particular, the finance, insurance, telecommunications, domestic trade and energy sectors, will be brisk. The process of shifting present or prospective investments from other Asian countries to China will also accelerate. This situation worries ASEAN countries that compete with China in drawing foreign investment as well as Japan and Taiwan, which are unable to hold their own companies in their respective economies. The imbalance of development among regions of China shows through in foreign capital distribution. Nearly 80% of foreign investments concentrate on coastal provinces in the east, which are relatively more developed, while central and western regions take a negligible share from investment flows. It looks as though the WTO membership will aggravate this imbalance in the short and medium term. With time, the labor-intensive manufacturing sector and foreign capital in search of natural resources may pursue the "Go West" strategy and be led towards the west in order to benefit from the prodigious infrastructure investments and incentives of the state in underdeveloped regions. The market opening will at first hurt several local firms and competition brought by the WTO for which they are unprepared. It is more likely that in the medium and long term, the Chinese economy will overcome this obstacle and thrive. What kind of lessons do China's foreign capital strategy and policies bear upon Turkey? We're asking this question in relation with a frequently encountered opinion in Turkey: "China is a country that has still not abandoned central planning and is ruled with a single party regime. Besides, foreign capital to China, for the most part, consists of investments by Chinese living abroad. For these two points, China can't surely be an example for Turkey"? Even if each country's conditions differ, there are always lessons to be learned from diverse experiences. It is true that in China there is still an administration based on central planning on paper. In reality, the five-year plans of the State Planning and Development Commission are not executed widely. As a result of swift changes, the planning of China turns in a way into the plans of our State Planning Organization. Regions in particular go their own way. The overseeing of regions in the activation of WTO duties and implementation of the legal and political precautions of the central government will continue to be a major headache. China, since 1978 has been ruled within the framework of a "socialist market" economy. In the past three or four years the word "socialist" has not even been uttered in the management of the economy. Of course, they are totally behind the "fanatic" market economy, but they tune their supply-demand balances, price settings and improvement of the investment environment with Western terminology. They keep searching for a "Third Way" unique to China in order to fill in the ideological vacuum that's been formed. Probably one of the first jobs of the new leadership is to make progress in this area. At one of my last visits to China, in Beijing, I met Peter Mandelson, an aide of Tony Blair. He was invited by the party school to contribute the search for a new ideology. Capital, foreign capital essentially, can't obey a chain of command. Even in China. When you listen to them, almost all investors complain of the conditions of doing business in China. But they carry on working so that if not today, in the near future, they will grab their slice from this giant cake and not lose the market to their rivals. Those who are patient, win. As it is so in the rest of the world, the capital in China flows into areas with reasonable profit margins and revenues, legally protected and able to see ahead. Above all, in China, provinces and certain cities follow an investment policy and provide incentives largely on their own, autonomously. The effort that strikes me most is their incessant search to entice advanced technology to the country no matter what. As long as there will be steps towards protection of property rights, they will draw more technology-concentrated investment. Foreign capital is granted incentives in areas thereby complementing the gaps in national capital. Although the restrictions may sometimes be over the top, ultimately, the principal aim is maximization of the foreign investors' benefits to development, while they pursue the aim of profit maximization. China has, since 1978 gained considerably in developing its exports, creating employment, technology transfer and improving management techniques. The crisis period in Asia included, it managed to draw $40-45 billion of foreign investment every year. It is second after the US in the listing of countries that secure the most amount of investment. Among developing countries, it is first. Although the income per head is low on a national level-but let's note that it's around $5,000 in Shanghai- China has a tremendous domestic market potential as the most populous country in the world. Its rapid economic growth, -last year, while all world economies were in stagnation, it grew by 7.8 %- unabated purchasing power, cheap labor and land costs, represent broad opportunities for investors. The permanence of political stability whereby promises are kept is an additional source of attraction. China's share of international investments today stands at 7%. In 1995, this number was 13%. Foreign capital per head is not as high as it's thought. In its GDP, the share of foreign investments was a mere 3.1% in 1980. In 2000, it moved up to 32.3%. The share of foreign investment in fixed capital formation is in the region of 10.5%. As you rightly point out, the share of multinational companies founded in the OECD countries in the amount of foreign capital entering China was very low. Presently, the concentration is on foreign investors from Southeast Asia, Taiwan and Hong Kong that cannot be categorized exactly as quality capital. But subsequent to the WTO membership, the OECD countries' enterprises in the country are mushrooming. Part of this undercurrent is the flight of domestic savings that are not well treated inside and then their return by way of (round tripping) benefiting from foreign capital incentives and guarantees. One other important matter is: China's attempts are not only for drawing the foreign investor, but at the same time to open up the way for its own investors. In an environment where local investors quit or run off abroad, you can't coax foreigners to come in, aside from speculative domains that deliver exorbitant returns. Foreign investment should be seen as an integral part of a comprehensive national development strategy. In China domestic savings are evaluated in conjunction with trade, investment and development aid/credits. If we sniff the last twenty years' experience of this country and think that it doesn't have any lessons for us, we would be hughly mistaken. When we view medium weight countries like Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Poland, etc. playing at the same league as us, we see that they lead us. We have to realize that improvement of the investment environment and drawing foreign investment does not simply go through legislative or institutional changes, but that we have to contrive the necessary capacities of people, institutions and infrastructure, above all, overhaul our traditional mentality. The view that after 2005, China will become a stumbling block for Turkey's exports, especially for textile, is widespread in our country. How accurate is it to look on China simply as a potential rival? Are there possibilities for Turkey and China to cooperate in international markets? There are wide possibilities of cooperation for two countries at the eastern and western ends of Asia. It remains as to how the present potential is to be turned into kinetic energy. The existing picture does not allow for optimism. In many sectors such as textile, construction and food, China is among our foremost rivals in international markets. In order to turn competition into cooperation, we need to think creatively and make intense efforts. We don't work enough on this subject. China as the world's largest steel producer (91.8 million tons) and also imports on a magnitude that can throw the international markets off balance (and which would also propel our own trade volume, since steel is an important export item). China's steel imports were 11.7 million tons in the first half of 2002. PetroChina, Shell, Exxon Mobile and Russian Gasprom have taken over the construction of the 3,900 km Xinjiang-Shanghai natural gas pipeline which will stretch from the west end until the east end of the country. Approximately $9 billion will be spent. Here, if at an early stage, they could take part in projects, Turkish contractors may be employed. The same goes for the country's infrastructure constructions to which the state pours billions of dollars. It is a good start for Turkey to be included in the list of countries that the Chinese tourists can visit for the first time. If the infrastructure and services that would appeal to the Chinese tourists, whose expectations and understanding of holiday is different, can be spruced-up without delay, it wouldn't be difficult to draw high-income level tourists from the "Middle Kingdom" over the next decade. The potential in this area is extensive, but we shouldn't be carried away by pipe dreams such as, "it would be enough if we drew 1% of the 1.3 billion population". Last year only 18,000 or so Chinese tourists visited. With a long-term perspective, we have to galvanize attempts and take precautions the results of which, we can reap in five-ten years in this area. In textile, the period after 2005 will be tough for countries such as ours. Not only China, but countries like India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Egypt will pressure us in our traditional markets. Within the next three years, we must become a brand in design, production and marketing, raise the quality and lay the basis for strategic partnerships based on international cooperation with our rivals, including China. Unfortunately, while so many developments and opportunities to affect us are burgeoning, the Turkish business world is relatively absent in China. The Koc Group withdrew from the joint venture, handing over its shares to its Chinese partner in the software contract it had secured for the Chinese state's aim in using computer technology in education. There is talk about a project by Arcelik to produce in Chinese factories. The Sabanci Group has not been mentioned. Rumour has it that STFA and ENKA, as well as some of our architectural firms are in the process of pre-trials. The investment partnership regarding the Baycan gums almost ended before the production even started. We shouldn't give up quickly. And let's not disregard the commercial mind of the Chinese that is distilled from a five thousand year civilization. The crisis we have gone through may have changed priorities, but it is possible for those thinking of strategic interests to make ventures by way of "sowing seeds" in China. It is still possible. For example, a new division of labor opportunities may arise in the financial sector. Garanti Bank, with strategic foresight, made a decision and opened a representative office in Shanghai. Because domestic savings are offered very low interest rates, there is a marked flow of capital abroad. China is placed in the top ten largest of foreign investors. An environment of trust will enable our country to draw capital from China. Let's not forget Hong Kong, which was handed to China in 1997 in this picture. In the same way, the "Silk Railroad" project is important in reducing transportation costs. In the 1999 government protocol it was professed, also with your efforts, that Turkey-China relations would be advanced. How far have we got since then? Can it be said that the desired goal was achieved? Since 1999, we have still been tracing the "ground breaking" steps taken by Turgut Ozal in the mid 1980s. In this, there are certainly problems stemming from the Chinese side. But even our largest firms behold China only as a resource country to import cheap goods from. Nobody moves without incentives. Imports were slackened because of last year's crisis ($675 million), but it's still decidedly beyond exports ($230 million). Very few people deliberate on how our presence can be established in the Chinese market in the long run. The guidance of the state is inadequate. Actually our every delegation visiting China is astounded. They return to our country with positive impressions and brimming with promises. The absolute need of developing investment, trade and political relations is repeated. Coordination meetings are held, reports fly off in the air. In a few months, because of not fixing on solid goals, not developing projects with feet on the ground that bear in mind the special conditions of China, China drops from the agenda yet again. Until another "eye opening" visit...Meanwhile, trade in silk, porcelain, carpets, pearls, tea and souvenirs is up! Sister city relations generally serve the commercial interests of the Chinese because they work whereas we visit and talk. In the eyes of the Chinese, Turkey is a gateway for the EU market. Turkey and Iran are both bridgehead countries in security scenarios concerning the supply of Middle Eastern and Caucasian oil. In the current status quo, due to its close relations with the West, China's preference of bridgehead in the region is Iran. The possibility of the fundamentalist movement in Central Asia to spread to the Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous Region worries Beijing. The contention that in Turkey some groups backed the separatists in China's north-west is common. In spite of the security cooperation agreement between the two countries dispersing the clouds in political relations and the atmosphere of distrust, Turkey does not receive a treatment in Beijing that is in proportion with its significance and weight. Probably China is the country where every cent to be spent for promotion would give the best returns. Generally speaking, we are seen by the Chinese man on the street on the same scale as Arabic countries. Our ties with the Uighur minority in the Xinjiang area can be instantly conjured up in their heads. Our image is not established or based on preconceptions. With the right and positive messages, Turkey can improve its image in China. In the meantime, it is an auspicious development for Turkish diplomacy to send its brightest ambassadors to Beijing. Their efforts need to be supported. In the final analysis, we have to know that we can pierce through the Chinese Wall, not by the state bureaucracy but by the active work of our private sector entrepreneurs. The contribution of the state is bound by efficient promotion, strategic orientation, formulation of the appropriate political framework and the use of the advantages in hand in favor of our companies via economic diplomacy. TARGET: 2020 There is a popular opinion that after 2005, China will be able to transform the unipolar world picture and come up against the US as a superpower. How do you evaluate this notion especially in the wake of September 11? China bears the potential of radically influencing the global system. It does not intend to cast itself onto the scene without shoring up its economic and military force, rock the unipolar world system and scare the US, Russia, Japan or its other neighboring countries. It pursues a rationalist and step-by-step approach of prudence knowing what it wants and what is possible. Unless a severe political and economic depression will be sparked off until 2020, the Chinese GDP calculated according to its purchasing power parity, may surpass that of the US. It is currently the second largest economic power in the world. It is also aware that the future lies in oceans and in space. China is rapidly modernizing and expanding its navy. It launches satellites. In its WTO membership, as echoed in its cooperation with the OECD, it wants to be an active member of the international system and play the game by the rules. The improvements in life standards will accompany softening in the political domain. China is on its way to develop an idiosyncratic democractic culture. The multi-party democratic model of the West is destined to fail in China. The Chinese administration gave strong support to the struggle against terrorism after September 11. The security of its borders with Central Asia and Afghanistan is a priority in its foreign policy objectives. That was why it initiated the "Shanghai Five" organization. However, the deployment of US forces to Afghanistan, and later Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan reinforced the ideas of leaders in Beijing that Washington's strategy of "containing" China continues. We see a skillful line of diplomacy in keeping relations with Japan, with which it has had a historical hostility, on a basis that would serve mutual benefits, in developing strategic cooperation with Russia and in setting up a free trade area with the ASEAN countries. As it is concerned with the American 7th Fleet cutting its energy dispatch in case of an international conflict, it tries to build a sphere of influence both in the Middle East and in Eurasia so that it can secure its energy needs. It's developed strong economic interdependency relations with Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Oman and Saudi Arabia. It purchased oil deposits in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Consequently, I don't believe that China will get involved with attempts to challenge the US in the international arena without fully reinforcing itself. But it is also true that it's become a country whose opinion and support is sought after in every international issue. This role will be progressively heightened. If we don't want to miss the boat to Asia, we have to invest politically and economically in China, its leading locomotive. Short-sightedness on our part will cost us dearly. Even if we do not get returns in the short-term, believe me, the long-term returns of this investment are very high. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 15:08:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:08:33 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18710r-0000pu-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:08:33 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1870zE-00055A-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:06:52 -0700 Received: from out4.prserv.net ([32.97.166.34] helo=prserv.net) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1870xl-00054b-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:05:21 -0700 Received: from attglobal.net (slip-32-102-174-252.or.us.prserv.net[32.102.174.252]) by prserv.net (out4) with SMTP id <200210302205192040700ikce>; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 22:05:19 +0000 Message-ID: <3DC0570E.381D18A1@attglobal.net> From: Chris Brady X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.77 [en] (Win95; U) X-Accept-Language: en MIME-Version: 1.0 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Subject: Re: [A-List] Full Spectrum Entropy: Wheels ... References: Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Reply-To: cdbrady@attglobal.net List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 14:02:55 -0800 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 14:02:55 -0800 THIS might inspire a "hhmmnnn..." or two: -------- Original Message -------- {edited "XX" to protect sources --cb} Subject: FW: Students Called to Active Military Duty Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 From: XX TO: All Faculty and Advisors FROM: XX, Vice Provost Academic Affairs SUBJECT: Students Called to Active Military Duty As you may be aware, some XXU students are being called for active military duty. The tuition refund policy in the XX Academic Year Fee Book 2002-2003 states that "any student with orders to report for active military duty may withdraw at any time during the term and receive a full refund. If sufficient course work has been accomplished and the instructor feels justified in granting credit for the course work completed, credit may be granted and withdrawal proceedings are unnecessary." The Office of the Registrar in conjunction with academic advisers will work with students on a case-by-case basis, looking at each request in an independent manner. In general students called to active military duty have the following options: * Full withdrawal from all courses at any point during the term without academic or financial penalty. Tuition would be refunded in full. * Partial withdrawal from some (but not all) courses at any point during the term without academic or financial penalty. Students who have completed a significant portion of their coursework may be eligible to a) receive the grades earned in courses up to that point in time and/or b) request incomplete grades according to existing guidelines. Tuition would be refunded for withdrawn courses. * No withdrawal from any courses. Students who have completed a significant portion of their coursework may be eligible to a) receive the grades earned in courses up to that point in time and/or b) request incomplete grades according to existing guidelines. No tuition would be refunded. Decisions as to which option is best for the student will depend on the student's personal details, the time remaining in the term, the portion of coursework completed at the time of military activation, and understandings which can be reached with instructors. Please contact the Office of the Registrar (Ph.#XX) with any questions. XX, Academic Affairs XX University From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 16:34:08 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 16:34:08 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1872Lg-0001AF-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 16:34:08 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1872L0-0005XX-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 16:33:26 -0700 Received: from mta6.fibertel.com.ar ([24.232.0.78] helo=mail.fibertel.com.ar) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1872K9-0005XI-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 16:32:33 -0700 Received: from nesto (200.49.145.35) by mail.fibertel.com.ar (5.5.034) (authenticated as nestorgoro@fibertel.com.ar) id 3DBE938F0005697B for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 20:32:08 -0300 From: "Nestor Gorojovsky" To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Message-ID: <3DC04143.1111.58B94C@localhost> Priority: normal X-mailer: Pegasus Mail for Windows (v4.01) Content-Type: Text/Plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-Printable MIME-Version: 1.0 Subject: [A-List] Playing chicken, huh? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Reply-To: nestorgoro@fibertel.com.ar List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 20:29:55 -0300 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 20:29:55 -0300 Michael Kearney wrote:=20 "Argentina plays dangerous game with IMF By Alan Beattie Financial Times: October 30 2002 [...] "Making an agreement comes down to a matter of political will," says=20 one senior Argentine official. Indeed it does, IMF officials privately say, and argue that without agreements sufficiently detailed that they can act as an effective constraint on Argentina's unruly political system, any deal that=20 relies purely on trust may well come unravelled. Argentina seems likely to get its rollover agreement during the=20 coming weeks, even days. But this may owe at least something to the old adage, adapted for the occasion by CSFB's director of Latin American economics, Lacey=20 Gallagher: "If you owe the bank $100, it is your problem. If you owe=20 the multilateral institutions $13bn, it is their problem."" Some comments: 1. The first question should be "dangerous game", for whom? 2. The second question is "whose political will can ensure an=20 agreement"? That of the current Argentinean administration? That of=20 the IMF or the US? Or *that of the mass of the Argentinean=20 population*? 3. The third question is what you mean by "unruly political system",=20 Mr Beattie? Is *the system* unruly? Or it is simply we the=20 Argentineans who have proved that we cannot "be swallowed down like=20 pies", as General San Mart=EDn wrote when he praised our resistence=20 against the Anglo-French invader in 1848? Wasn't the system unruly=20 when it helped the IMF and WB force their lethal medicine through our=20 throats, and it is unruly right now? Maybe the system is beginning to=20 be tame for the first time in decades, at least from the point of=20 view of the Argentineans... The fact is, what has happened in Argentina isn't simply that _the=20 country defaulted_. The country was, technically, in default long=20 before the Rodr=EDguez Sa=E1 short but bold administration declared to=20 whoever wanted to listen that this country would not keep its=20 international compromises if they were proven illegitimate by a=20 Parliamentary enquiry (this cost Rodr=EDguez Sa=E1 the Presidency, he was= =20 ousted in a Parliamentary coup d'etat immediately afterwards in a=20 move that few understood either outside or inside Argentina). The IMF and WB technicians were ready to run happily along with this,=20 in fact they were charmed to see how submissive was this defaulted=20 country to whatever they requested from its "political system".=20 The problem with Argentina is that popular mobilisation forced the=20 "professional politicians" (who hitherto had had ears for the foreign=20 "creditors" only) to begin to pay attention to the disastrous=20 domestic consequences of IMF and World Bank policies. On December=20 19th and 20th they discovered, all of the sudden, that they were=20 living on a growling volcano, and that a prairie fire might devour=20 all of them if they kept acting as if Argentineans were an old rag=20 that could be discarded at will. I will keep the feeling of that=20 couple of days forever. It was not the first time I could feel the=20 acid itch of tear gas (and I hope it will be the last one), but this=20 time I will also keep in my memory the distinct feeling that we were=20 making history on the streets. All of us knew that in our bones. Thus, what the IMF is fearing is NOT the _sluggish_ "chicken game"=20 with Lavagna (who, however and all things considered, is not behaving=20 so badly), but the social and political consequences that would come=20 to the fore if Lavagna _did_ cry "uncle". In fact, the IMF and the=20 international system of usury are fearing popular reactions to the=20 further imposition of their recipes. This would become a Russian=20 roulette and not a chicken game. And they know that. We Argentineans are standing up, in our particular way (admittedly it=20 is not easy for a foreign observer to realize how the spirit of=20 December is still alive, because we are not as showy as other Latin=20 Americans), against the IMF. That is why we are going to have=20 elections soon: because these sepoys cannot remain in power for long=20 without risking new upheavals, and because the general trend in Latin=20 America will be of new, fresh air into what used to be a closed room=20 full of garbage and goblins. We Argentineans are also known as a haughty people, and it must be=20 said that sometimes this is sadly true (particularly with those of=20 European origin who despise their fellow countrypeople as well as=20 Latin Americans in general, but luckily enough this kind of=20 Argentinean is becoming more and more of an antique shop ugly piece).=20 Sometimes, however, what passes for haughtiness is simply pride. In=20 the end, before we Argentineans took to the streets on December 19/20=20 2001 the IMF and WB gangs believed that Latin America was ready for a=20 new session of nose punching. It is they who have begun to bleed now. And the game is only=20 beginning. The whole spirit behind the FT piece is completely=20 revealing that they are=20 beginning to realize what will happen within a few years, not only in=20 Argentina but elsewhere in Latin America. They will be sent off the road, probably to the abyss, by an=20 increasingly fierce driver on the competing car. N=E9stor Miguel Gorojovsky nestorgoro@fibertel.com.ar _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _=20 "Aquel que no est=E1 orgulloso de su origen no valdr=E1 nunca=20 nada porque empieza por depreciarse a s=ED mismo". Pedro Albizu Campos, compatriota puertorrique=F1o de todos=20 los latinoamericanos. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _=20 From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Oct 30 18:21:42 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:21:42 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18741m-0001cF-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:21:42 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18741W-0006Js-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:21:26 -0700 Received: from mta5.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.241]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 18740z-0006JV-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:20:53 -0700 Received: from sabri ([66.124.233.210]) by mta5.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H4T00I21NQS6X@mta5.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:20:52 -0800 (PST) From: Sabri Oncu In-reply-to: To: ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] RE: A Turkish neoliberal on China Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:20:13 -0800 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:20:13 -0800 By the way, this web site, where the article on China came from, may be of interest to some of you: http://www.turkishtime.org This is the website of turkishTIMe, which is a publication of TIM, that is, Turkiye (Turkish) Ihracatcilar (Exporters) Meclisi (Assembly). I find this a highly "original" way of naming their publication of course. They are one of the most powerful "civil society" organizations back home, as well as running one of the "highly respected" think-tanks. Another site that may be useful, if you have any interest in my part of the world, that is, is: http://www.tusiad-us.org This is the US website of the Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association. As some of you may recall, I used to call this one TIBA and it goes without saying that it is the most powerful "civil society" organization of my country. By the way, it is not I who is being sarcastic here. It is them who call themselves "civil society" organizations. There have been lots of whitewashing efforts going on back home and these efforts had mostly been quite successful, at least, until the turd hit the fan. Best, Sabri From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 04:22:02 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:22:02 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187DOk-00044x-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:22:02 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187DND-0000oN-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:20:27 -0700 Received: from fep01-svc.mail.telepac.pt ([194.65.5.200]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186xXe-0003hk-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 11:26:10 -0700 Received: from jorge.mail.telepac.pt ([213.13.29.153]) by fep01-svc.mail.telepac.pt (InterMail vM.5.01.04.13 201-253-122-122-113-20020313) with ESMTP id <20021030182605.ZVVS24671.fep01-svc.mail.telepac.pt@jorge.mail.telepac.pt> for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:26:05 +0000 Message-Id: <5.0.2.1.0.20021030182038.023cb270@mail.telepac.pt> X-Sender: jfigueir@mail.telepac.pt X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0.2 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: Jorge Figueiredo Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="=====================_31159075==_.ALT" Subject: [A-List] European Social Forum, 7-10 November Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:26:09 +0000 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:26:09 +0000 --=====================_31159075==_.ALT Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Below a letter sent by 15 deputies of European Parliement to the President of European Commission. Ci-dessous courrier adress=E9 par 15 d=E9put=E9s europ=E9ens au Pr=E9sident= de la Commission europ=E9enne. PARLEMENT EUROPEEN A l'attention de Monsieur Prodi Pr=E9sident de la Commission europ=E9enne Breydel 12-84 1049 Bruxelles Bruxelles, le 29 octobre 2002 Monsieur le Pr=E9sident, Comme vous le savez, le Forum social europ=E9en de Florence (7-10 novembre 2002) verra affluer vers l'Italie des dizaines de milliers de personnes, notamment des jeunes qui souhaitent participer =E0 la pr=E9paration du 3=E8m= e Forum social mondial de Porto Alegre (janvier 2003). Il s'agira d'un rendez-vous citoyen de port=E9e consid=E9rable sur tout le continent. Dans= tous les pays, les pr=E9paratifs sont engag=E9s depuis fort longtemps. Dans une p=E9riode marqu=E9e par une profonde crise de la politique, voil=E0 une mobilisation citoyenne qui s'annonce r=E9ussie en faveur d'une= mondialisation d=E9mocratique et solidaire. Quiconque prendrait la responsabilit=E9 de contrecarrer cet =E9lan commettrait une faute gravissime. C'est pourtant ce que s'appr=EAtent =E0 faire les autorit=E9s italiennes= qui, apr=E8s avoir d=E9menti les intentions qui leur =E9taient pr=EAt=E9es,= viennent de confirmer leur volont=E9 de suspendre l'application des accords de Schengen durant la tenue du Forum. Selon certaines informations, le gouvernement n'excluerait m=EAme pas une interdiction des manifestations et r=E9unions pr=E9vues =E0 cette occasion, quitte =E0 prendre le risque de susciter une dangereuse tension. C'est l=E0 une attitude injustifiable. Et ce, d'autant qu'=E0 Florence, il n'y aura nul Sommet officiel =E0 prot=E9ger qui= n=E9cessiterait des mesures de s=E9curit=E9 particuli=E8res. Voil=E0 pourquoi nous nous permettons de vous inviter =E0 user de votre= autorit=E9 aupr=E8s du gouvernement italien pour faire pr=E9valoir la raison : le Forum social europ=E9en doit pouvoir se d=E9rouler normalement et, donc, la libre circulation et la libert=E9 de r=E9union des personnes qui souhaitent s'y= rendre doivent =EAtre pleinement assur=E9es. Nous serons quant =E0 nous particuli=E8rement vigilants par rapport au= respect de ces droits fondamentaux, pr=EAts =E0 t=E9moigner tant sur place qu'=E0= notre retour de tout ce que nous aurons pu observer. Nous savons que les =E9lus de Florence et de Toscane s'appr=EAtent =E0 r=E9server un bon accueil aux participants, raison de plus pour souhaiter vivement que les autorit=E9s nationales de l'Italie ne prennent aucune mesure susceptible de compromettre le succ=E8s de ce grand =E9v=E9nement europ=E9en. Dans l'attente de conna=EEtre la suite que vous r=E9servez =E0 notre= d=E9marche, nous nous prions de croire, Monsieur le Pr=E9sident, =E0 nos sentiments bien cordiaux. Signataires : Francis Wurtz, Pr=E9sident du groupe GUE/NGL Monica Frassoni, Co-Pr=E9sidente du groupe Verts/ALE Harlem D=E9sir (PSE, F) Danielle Auroi (Verts/ALE, F) Pasqualina Napoletano (PSE, I) H=E9l=E8ne Flautre (Verts/ALE, F) Olga Zrihen (PSE, B) Yasmine Boudjenah (GUE/NGL, F) Roselyne Vachetta (GUE/NGL, F) Camilo Nogueira (Verts/ALE, E) Guido Sacconi (PSE, I) Pedro Marset Campos (GUE/NGL, E) Giuseppe Di Lello (GUE/NGL, E) Ilda Figueiredo (GUE/NGL, P) Carlos Carnero (PSE, E) --=====================_31159075==_.ALT Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Below a letter sent by 15 deputies of European Parliement
to the President of European Commission.

Ci-dessous courrier adress=E9 par 15 d=E9put=E9s europ=E9ens au Pr=E9= sident de la
Commission europ=E9enne.

PARLEMENT EUROPEEN
A l'attention de Monsieur Prodi
Pr=E9sident de la Commission europ=E9enne
Breydel 12-84
1049 Bruxelles
Bruxelles, le 29 octobre 2002
Monsieur le Pr=E9sident,
Comme vous le savez, le Forum social europ=E9en de Florence (7-10 novembre
2002) verra affluer vers l'Italie des dizaines de milliers de personnes,
notamment des jeunes qui souhaitent participer =E0 la pr=E9paration du 3=E8m= e
Forum social mondial de Porto Alegre (janvier 2003). Il s'agira d'un
rendez-vous citoyen de port=E9e consid=E9rable sur tout le continent. Dans tous
les pays, les pr=E9paratifs sont engag=E9s depuis fort longtemps. Dans une
p=E9riode marqu=E9e par une profonde crise de la politique, voil=E0 une
mobilisation citoyenne qui s'annonce r=E9ussie en faveur d'une mondialisation
d=E9mocratique et solidaire. Quiconque prendrait la responsabilit=E9 de=20
contrecarrer cet =E9lan commettrait une faute gravissime.
C'est pourtant ce que s'appr=EAtent =E0 faire les autorit=E9s italiennes qui= ,
apr=E8s avoir d=E9menti les intentions qui leur =E9taient pr=EAt=E9es,= viennent de
confirmer leur volont=E9 de suspendre l'application des accords de Schengen
durant la tenue du Forum. Selon certaines informations, le gouvernement
n'excluerait m=EAme pas une interdiction des manifestations et r=E9unions
pr=E9vues =E0 cette occasion, quitte =E0 prendre le risque de susciter une
dangereuse tension. C'est l=E0 une attitude injustifiable. Et ce, d'autant
qu'=E0 Florence, il n'y aura nul Sommet officiel =E0 prot=E9ger qui n=E9cessiterait
des mesures de s=E9curit=E9 particuli=E8res.
Voil=E0 pourquoi nous nous permettons de vous inviter =E0 user de votre autorit=E9
aupr=E8s du gouvernement italien pour faire pr=E9valoir la raison : le Forum
social europ=E9en doit pouvoir se d=E9rouler normalement et, donc, la libre
circulation et la libert=E9 de r=E9union des personnes qui souhaitent s'y rendre
doivent =EAtre pleinement assur=E9es.
Nous serons quant =E0 nous particuli=E8rement vigilants par rapport au respect
de ces droits fondamentaux, pr=EAts =E0 t=E9moigner tant sur place qu'=E0 no= tre
retour de tout ce que nous aurons pu observer. Nous savons que les =E9lus de
Florence et de Toscane s'appr=EAtent =E0 r=E9server un bon accueil aux
participants, raison de plus pour souhaiter vivement que les autorit=E9s
nationales de l'Italie ne prennent aucune mesure susceptible de compromettre
le succ=E8s de ce grand =E9v=E9nement europ=E9en.
Dans l'attente de conna=EEtre la suite que vous r=E9servez =E0 notre d=E9mar= che,
nous nous prions de croire, Monsieur le Pr=E9sident, =E0 nos sentiments bien
cordiaux.
Signataires :
Francis Wurtz, Pr=E9sident du groupe GUE/NGL
Monica Frassoni, Co-Pr=E9sidente du groupe Verts/ALE
Harlem D=E9sir (PSE, F)
Danielle Auroi (Verts/ALE, F)
Pasqualina Napoletano (PSE, I)
H=E9l=E8ne Flautre (Verts/ALE, F)
Olga Zrihen (PSE, B)
Yasmine Boudjenah (GUE/NGL, F)
Roselyne Vachetta (GUE/NGL, F)
Camilo Nogueira (Verts/ALE, E)
Guido Sacconi (PSE, I)
Pedro Marset Campos (GUE/NGL, E)
Giuseppe Di Lello (GUE/NGL, E)
Ilda Figueiredo (GUE/NGL, P)
Carlos Carnero (PSE, E)

--=====================_31159075==_.ALT-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 04:22:23 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:22:23 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187DP5-000455-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:22:23 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187DOr-0000pU-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:22:09 -0700 Received: from imo-m09.mx.aol.com ([64.12.136.164]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 1872A4-0005TN-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 16:22:08 -0700 Received: from Waistline2@aol.com by imo-m09.mx.aol.com (mail_out_v34.13.) id w.183.111a2c9d (4196) for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:22:01 -0500 (EST) From: Waistline2@aol.com Message-ID: <183.111a2c9d.2af1c398@aol.com> To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="part1_183.111a2c9d.2af1c398_boundary" X-Mailer: AOL 8.0 for Windows US sub 180 Subject: [A-List] what is to de done? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:22:00 EST Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:22:00 EST --part1_183.111a2c9d.2af1c398_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="ISO-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable We are writing to let you know about a forthcoming exhibition at the Lenin Museum in Tampere, Finland. 'What is to be Done? Questions for the 21st Century', appeals for your response to Lenin's original question "what is to be done?" posed in 1902. Your response, along with those of others drawn from a local, national and international public, will be documented, archived and displayed in the exhibition. Lenin's ideas about revolutionary change, the relationship between local movements and universal social struggles, as well as his predictions about late capitalism and imperialism seem surprisingly relevant today. 'What is to be Done? Questions for the 21st Century' encourages you to write down any thoughts you might have about possible social change today. Your response can be something short, a slogan, an idea or a reference to a specific situation you feel is important. Under late capitalism's all encompassing reach, it is our very freedom to think that is being eroded. In the spirit of Lenin's thought, we repeat the question 'what is to be done?' as a sincere appeal for your ideas and thoughts on our future. The Lenin museum opened in January 1946 in the Tampere Workers' Hall where Lenin had pledged to further the cause of Finnish independence. In the same building, Lenin and Stalin met for the first time in 1905. The museum preserves, exhibits and researches the objects, documents and symbols of the Soviet era and has developed into a widely acclaimed institute of culture and research. The downfall of the Soviet Union has left the museum the last regularly operating museum of its kind in the whole world. In the following e-mail there will be a series of short statements and questions that we now ask you to respond to. We request that you e- mail your response, which we will then transfer to a time card format for the exhibition. All responses will be gathered together, translated in Finnish and Russian, documented and presented as an archive at the Lenin Museum in January 2003. With your permission, multiple copies of your response will be made so that visitors to the museum can take some ideas away. Please indicate in your e-mail if you are willing to let us make copies. We need to have all of our responses in by mid-November 2002, so that we have time to translate everything! This question is asked of individuals and groups in Tampere and broader national and international constituencies in Finland, Russia, the US and elsewhere. The questions also currently appear in several international art journals with perforated response cards. Please feel free to pass on the questions to any interested friends or colleagues. We would like to harness the energies of those who think about change today and put them into dialogue in this important public space. Thank you for your time and participation! Yours sincerely, Susan Kelly and Stephen Morton WHAT IS TO BE DONE? Questions for the 21st Century Lenin's description of imperialism as the highest stage of capitalism now seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy. After the collapse of the Soviet bloc the total spread of unregulated global capitalism is seen as inevitable. With this spread, a third of the world's population lives on less than $2 a day and the poorest countries in the world owe a $422 billion debt that can never be paid. Yet, events in Seattle, Genoa and elsewhere show that global capitalism can be resisted. Do you think that Lenin's ideas are of any use today? What are the burning social and political questions of our time? When Lenin wrote What is to be Done? in 1902, he mainly wanted to distinguish between radical revolutionary politics and the reformists who just wanted to patch things up. Lenin was intolerant of questions that failed to really challenge the dominant political order. How can we provoke significant change today and do you think any real shift can really happen under our present system? The Lenin Museum in Tampere is the site of Lenin and Stalin's first meeting. Lenin's ideas are often seen as leading inevitably to Stalinism and the terror of the Soviet Empire. This has been called the Leninist Tragedy. At the scene of their meeting, is it possible to rescue some of Lenin's ideas from this fate? How can we prevent social change from turning into a situation where the same structures of power are re-established with different players at the top? In Tampere, 1906 Lenin made a pledge to honour the Finnish right to self-determination after the Bolshevik Revolution. Lenin believed that Marx's revolutionary ideas had to be adapted to the local and national conditions of workers rather than being imposed from above. In Lenin's time, this mobilisation of worker's movements was the most effective way of achieving international solidarity. The phrase 'workers of the world unite' may now seem like an impossible ideal since late capitalism has crushed union power and pitted the workers of the world against one another. Despite this gloomy picture, from where you stand right now, what are the possibilities for social change today? In short, what is to be done? Please e-mail your response in not more than 300 words to whatistobedone@excite.com or mail to: What is to be Done? The Lenin Museum H=E4meenpuisto 28, FIN-33200 Tampere, FINLAND http://www.tampere.fi/culture/lenin/ --part1_183.111a2c9d.2af1c398_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="ISO-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable We are writing to let you know about a forthcoming exh= ibition at the Lenin
Museum in Tampere, Finland. 'What is to be Done? Questions for the 21st
Century', appeals for your response to Lenin's original question "what is to=
be done?" posed in 1902. Your response, along with those of others drawn
from a local, national and international public, will be documented,
archived and displayed in the exhibition.

Lenin's ideas about revolutionary change, the relationship between local
movements and universal social struggles, as well as his predictions about late capitalism and imperialism seem surprisingly relevant today. 'What is to be Done? Questions for the 21st Century' encourages you to write down any=
thoughts you might have about possible social change today. Your response can be something short, a slogan, an idea or a reference to a specific
situation you feel is important. Under late capitalism's all encompassing reach, it is our very freedom to think that is being eroded. In the spirit of Lenin's thought, we repeat the question 'what is to be done?' as a
sincere appeal for your ideas and thoughts on our future.

The Lenin museum opened in January 1946 in the Tampere Workers' Hall where Lenin had pledged to further the cause of Finnish independence. In the same<= BR> building, Lenin and Stalin met for the first time in 1905. The museum
preserves, exhibits and researches the objects, documents and symbols of the=
Soviet era and has developed into a widely acclaimed institute of culture and research. The downfall of the Soviet Union has left the museum the last<= BR> regularly operating museum of its kind in the whole world.

In the following e-mail there will be a series of short statements and
questions that we now ask you to respond to. We request that you e- mail
your response, which we will then transfer to a time card format for the
exhibition. All responses will be gathered together, translated in Finnish and Russian, documented and presented as an archive at the Lenin Museum in January 2003. With your permission, multiple copies of your response will be=
made so that visitors to the museum can take some ideas away. Please
indicate in your e-mail if you are willing to let us make copies. We need to=
have all of our responses in by mid-November 2002, so that we have time to translate everything! This question is asked of individuals and groups in Tampere and broader national and international constituencies in Finland, Russia, the US and elsewhere. The questions also currently appear in several=
international art journals with perforated response cards.

Please feel free to pass on the questions to any interested friends or
colleagues. We would like to harness the energies of those who think about change today and put them into dialogue in this important public space.
Thank you for your time and participation!

Yours sincerely, Susan Kelly and Stephen Morton

WHAT IS TO BE DONE?
Questions for the 21st Century

Lenin's description of imperialism as the highest stage of capitalism now seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy. After the collapse of the Soviet bloc=
the total spread of unregulated global capitalism is seen as inevitable.
With this spread, a third of the world's population lives on less than $2 a<= BR> day and the poorest countries in the world owe a $422 billion debt that can<= BR> never be paid. Yet, events in Seattle, Genoa and elsewhere show that global<= BR> capitalism can be resisted. Do you think that Lenin's ideas are of any use today? What are the burning social and political questions of our time?

When Lenin wrote What is to be Done? in 1902, he mainly wanted to
distinguish between radical revolutionary politics and the reformists who just wanted to patch things up. Lenin was intolerant of questions that
failed to really challenge the dominant political order. How can we provoke<= BR> significant change today and do you think any real shift can really happen under our present system?

The Lenin Museum in Tampere is the site of Lenin and Stalin's first meeting.=
Lenin's ideas are often seen as leading inevitably to Stalinism and the
terror of the Soviet Empire. This has been called the Leninist Tragedy. At the scene of their meeting, is it possible to rescue some of Lenin's ideas from this fate? How can we prevent social change from turning into a
situation where the same structures of power are re-established with
different players at the top?

In Tampere, 1906 Lenin made a pledge to honour the Finnish right to
self-determination after the Bolshevik Revolution. Lenin believed that
Marx's revolutionary ideas had to be adapted to the local and national
conditions of workers rather than being imposed from above. In Lenin's time,=
this mobilisation of worker's movements was the most effective way of
achieving international solidarity. The phrase 'workers of the world unite'<= BR> may now seem like an impossible ideal since late capitalism has crushed
union power and pitted the workers of the world against one another. Despite=
this gloomy picture, from where you stand right now, what are the
possibilities for social change today?

In short, what is to be done? Please e-mail your response in not more than 300 words to whatistobedone@excite.com or mail to:

What is to be Done?
The Lenin Museum
H=E4meenpuisto 28,
FIN-33200 Tampere,
FINLAND
http://www.tampere.fi/culture/lenin/

 --part1_183.111a2c9d.2af1c398_boundary-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 04:22:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:22:37 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187DPJ-00045D-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:22:37 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187DOQ-0000p6-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:21:42 -0700 Received: from blount.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.226]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186zYe-0004Yr-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:35:20 -0700 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by blount.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 186zYW-0006zO-00; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:35:12 -0500 Message-ID: <000e01c28053$cc9d58a0$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_000B_01C28029.DF85D660" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Subject: [A-List] Jim Crow Lives in Florida Again Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:34:43 -0500 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 15:34:43 -0500 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_000B_01C28029.DF85D660 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable October 29, 2002 THE RE-ELECTION OF JIM CROW: How Jeb Bush's Team is Trying to Steal Florida Again By Greg Palast Southern Exposure Special Report There is no shame. In 2000, Katherine Harris, Florida Secretary of State, ordered county elections officials to purge 57,000 citizens from voter registries as = felons not allowed to vote in Florida. In fact, about 95 percent of these = voters were innocent of crimes -- but 54 percent were guilty of being = African-American. No guess there: a voter's race is right there on the voter form. So there = was the election: BBC Television, for whom I conducted the investigation of this black-out operation, figures Al Gore lost 22,000 votes this way. But I was wrong. The company that put together this racial roster that = fixed the election, DBT On-Line of Boca Raton, has now 'fessed up, having been sued by the NAACP for violating Floridians' civil rights. They have turned = over to the NAACP's lawyers a report indicating that the state ordered the purge = of 94,000 voters and that, according to the company's data, no more than = 3,000 are likely illegal voters. In April of this year, Harris wrote that my reporting was "twisted and maniacally partisan" -- but not, in the main, wrong. The Secretary of = State, now candidate for Congress for Sarasota, settled with the NAACP, = agreeing that legal voters had been mistakenly purged, but admitting no wrongdoing. Here's where it gets nasty. Harris and the state admit that tens of thousands of black voters had been wronged, and with plantation noblesse have = agreed to return them to the voter rolls -- at the beginning of 2003. In other = words, the votes seized in November 2002 will not be emancipated until after = the ballots are counted in the race between Governor Jeb Bush and his = Democratic opponent Bill McBride. Is there some technical reason for the delay? The first purge was = launched in 1998 only weeks before Jeb's last run for office; yet the order to = reverse the process is dragging for months since settlement and nearly two years = since the exposure of the list's falsity. Not all of the 91,000 wrongly listed for the purge lost their vote; and most, though not all, are Democrats. But in a Governor's race in a statistical dead heat, these tens of thousands of votes may well decide the outcome. THE BLACK BUTTON Nevertheless, that doesn't seem enough for the Republican controllers of = the state's voting apparatus. In the 2000 race, despite the odd statement by Republican spokesman James Baker that Florida's votes were counted six times, in fact, just short of 180,000 ballots were never tallied -- "spoiled" = in the parlance of elections officials. How does a vote "spoil"? Is it left out of the refrigerator too long? In Florida, a spoiled ballot is one that is mis-marked -- especially easy = to do with the paper ballots used throughout much of Florida. While the nation = was chortling over "butterfly" ballots and "hanging chads," the race was = decided by the machines that optically read the paper ballots. It's hard to = imagine a machine with a racial bias, but they can be programmed for Jim Crow = outcome. Here's how it happened. Take two counties: Gadsden, Florida's most = heavily African-American county (57% minority population) and white-majority = Leon County (which includes the capital, Tallahassee). Both counties used = paper ballots; both were read by machines. But in the black county one in = eight votes was "spoiled" -- voided and never read; while in next-door Leon, almost no ballot went uncounted (a spoilage rate of only one in two-hundred). The 180,000 spoiled ballots came overwhelmingly from the blackest, = poorest, most Democratic counties. How could that be? ABC TV's Nightline sent = down their Clark Kents to investigate -- and they concluded that = African-American voters were not properly educated and trained to handle the = sophisticated voting process. In other words, blacks are too dumb to figure out how to vote. I found another explanation while investigating the matter for BBC TV Newsnight out of London. The Leon County officials showed me that in = their (white) county, if a voter made an error, the machine automatically = returned the ballot and issued a new one for correction. However, if the black voters of Gadsden made a minor error -- a stray mark, a circle not an x -- = their machine accepted the ballot, then voided it; the reject mechanisms were either missing or disabled. This was no surprise mistake -- Leon County election clerks told me that before the election, they set up example machines at their office across from the Governor's office, and his election chiefs thoroughly examined how = the machines operated. Florida officials are considering an end to this mechanical apartheid; = the issue will be addressed some time after the November race. COUP D'ETAT BY COMPUTER But the old dogs of ballot-bending are learning some new tricks. Before resigning to run for Congress, Secretary of State Harris leaned hard on = the counties to purchase "touch screen" voting machines. But not just any machines. Harris first authorized the use of machines by only one = company, Election Systems & Software of Omaha. While Harris later authorized = others, ES&S used its jump ahead to work an agreement with the association of = county elections supervisors to kick back to the group five percent of the cost = of new machines purchased by any county. It was ES&S machines that were used in Florida's 2002 primaries and were plagued by countless breakdowns. A report by state Inspector General Christopher Mazzella says that the company "bears major responsibility" = for the foul-ups. An ACLU study found that, once again, it was Miami-Dade's black voters who were disproportionately disenfranchised by "lost votes." Who is behind ES&S that its way into Florida seemed so well lubricated? = Its lobbyist: Sandra Mortham. Mortham is the frothingly partisan predecessor = to Harris as secretary of state, a founding member of Women for Jeb and the official who in 1998, before Harris, promoted and carried out the first round of the fake felon purge. If Mortham's credentials as an unbiased source = of corrective voting mechanisms are a bit questionable, ES&S's track record = for reliability should have caused some concern. From Hawaii to Venezuela, = there have been questions about the company's machines. In early voting during the week of October 21, voters in Dallas County, Texas, complained that ES&S touch-screen machines were registering Democratic = votes as votes for Republican candidates. This might affect one of the most important Senate races in the country, between Democrat Ron Kirk and Republican John Cornyn. It was no surprise to me that ES&S machines failed. I tried the test = ballot on the company web site, and despite their supposedly reliable system, = still succeeded in "overvoting" and voting twice for the same candidate -- = until their site seized up. Nor is it surprising that problems with the touch screen voting occurred mostly in African-American precincts. * * * This story appears in a special edition of Southern Exposure magazine, = "The Right To Vote." Copies are available for $5 at Southern Exposure, P.O. = Box 531, Durham, NC 27702 or (919) 419-8311 x21. The full version of this = story will appear in the winter 2002/2003 issue of Southern Exposure. Greg Palast is an award-winning BBC reporter who has also written for = Salon, Harper's, and the Washington Post. In February, Penguin Plume will issue = a special U.S. edition of Palast's book, The Best Democracy Money Can Buy, with the latest on his investigation of vote manipulation in Florida. Fredda Weinberg contributed to this report. "We see the unhistorical and ahistorical character of bourgeois thought = most strikingly when we consider the problem of the present as a = historical problem." -George Lukacs ------=_NextPart_000_000B_01C28029.DF85D660 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
October 29, 2002

THE RE-ELECTION = OF JIM=20 CROW:
How Jeb Bush's Team is Trying to Steal Florida Again

By = Greg=20 Palast
Southern Exposure Special Report

There is no = shame.

In=20 2000, Katherine Harris, Florida Secretary of State, ordered = county
elections=20 officials to purge 57,000 citizens from voter registries as = felons
not=20 allowed to vote in Florida. In fact, about 95 percent of these=20 voters
were
innocent of crimes -- but 54 percent were guilty of = being=20 African-American.
No
guess there: a voter's race is right there on = the=20 voter form. So there was
the
election: BBC Television, for whom I=20 conducted the investigation of this
black-out operation, figures Al = Gore lost=20 22,000 votes this way.

But I was wrong. The company that put = together=20 this racial roster that fixed
the election, DBT On-Line of Boca = Raton, has=20 now 'fessed up, having been
sued
by the NAACP for violating = Floridians'=20 civil rights. They have turned over
to
the NAACP's lawyers a = report=20 indicating that the state ordered the purge of
94,000 voters and = that,=20 according to the company's data, no more than 3,000
are likely = illegal=20 voters.

In April of this year, Harris wrote that my reporting was = "twisted and
maniacally partisan" -- but not, in the main, wrong. The = Secretary of State,
now candidate for Congress for Sarasota, settled = with the=20 NAACP, agreeing
that
legal voters had been mistakenly purged, but=20 admitting no wrongdoing.

Here's where it gets nasty. Harris and = the state=20 admit that tens of
thousands
of black voters had been wronged, and = with=20 plantation noblesse have agreed
to
return them to the voter rolls = -- at=20 the beginning of 2003. In other words,
the votes seized in November = 2002 will=20 not be emancipated until after the
ballots are counted in the race = between=20 Governor Jeb Bush and his Democratic
opponent Bill McBride.

Is = there=20 some technical reason for the delay? The first purge was = launched
in
1998=20 only weeks before Jeb's last run for office; yet the order to=20 reverse
the
process is dragging for months since settlement and = nearly two=20 years since
the
exposure of the list's falsity.

Not all of = the=20 91,000 wrongly listed for the purge lost their vote; = and
most,
though not=20 all, are Democrats. But in a Governor's race in a = statistical
dead
heat,=20 these tens of thousands of votes may well decide the outcome.

THE = BLACK=20 BUTTON

Nevertheless, that doesn't seem enough for the Republican=20 controllers of the
state's voting apparatus. In the 2000 race, = despite the=20 odd statement by
Republican spokesman James Baker that Florida's = votes were=20 counted six
times,
in fact, just short of 180,000 ballots were = never=20 tallied -- "spoiled" in
the
parlance of elections = officials.

How=20 does a vote "spoil"? Is it left out of the refrigerator too long? = In
Florida,=20 a spoiled ballot is one that is mis-marked -- especially easy to = do
with the=20 paper ballots used throughout much of Florida. While the nation = was
chortling=20 over "butterfly" ballots and "hanging chads," the race was decided
by = the=20 machines that optically read the paper ballots. It's hard to=20 imagine
a
machine with a racial bias, but they can be programmed = for Jim=20 Crow outcome.

Here's how it happened. Take two counties: Gadsden, = Florida's most heavily
African-American county (57% minority = population) and=20 white-majority Leon
County (which includes the capital, Tallahassee). = Both=20 counties used paper
ballots; both were read by machines. But in the = black=20 county one in eight
votes was "spoiled" -- voided and never read; = while in=20 next-door Leon,
almost
no ballot went uncounted (a spoilage rate = of only=20 one in two-hundred).

The 180,000 spoiled ballots came = overwhelmingly from=20 the blackest, poorest,
most Democratic counties. How could that = be?  ABC=20 TV's Nightline sent down
their Clark Kents to investigate -- and they = concluded that African-American
voters were not properly educated and = trained=20 to handle the sophisticated
voting process. In other words, blacks = are too=20 dumb to figure out how to
vote.


I found another = explanation while=20 investigating the matter for BBC TV
Newsnight out of London. The Leon = County=20 officials showed me that in their
(white) county, if a voter made an = error,=20 the machine automatically returned
the ballot and issued a new one = for=20 correction.  However, if the black
voters
of Gadsden made a = minor=20 error -- a stray mark, a circle not an x -- their
machine accepted = the=20 ballot, then voided it; the reject mechanisms were
either
missing = or=20 disabled.

This was no surprise mistake -- Leon County election = clerks=20 told me that
before the election, they set up example machines at = their=20 office across
from
the Governor's office, and his election chiefs=20 thoroughly examined how the
machines operated.

Florida = officials are=20 considering an end to this mechanical apartheid; the
issue will be = addressed=20 some time after the November race.

COUP D'ETAT BY = COMPUTER

But the=20 old dogs of ballot-bending are learning some new tricks. = Before
resigning to=20 run for Congress, Secretary of State Harris leaned hard on = the
counties to=20 purchase "touch screen" voting machines. But not just any
machines. = Harris=20 first authorized the use of machines by only one company,
Election = Systems=20 & Software of Omaha. While Harris later authorized = others,
ES&S used=20 its jump ahead to work an agreement with the association of = county
elections=20 supervisors to kick back to the group five percent of the cost of
new = machines purchased by any county.

It was ES&S machines that = were used=20 in Florida's 2002 primaries and were
plagued by countless breakdowns. = A=20 report by state Inspector General
Christopher Mazzella says that the = company=20 "bears major responsibility" for
the foul-ups. An ACLU study found = that, once=20 again, it was Miami-Dade's
black
voters who were = disproportionately=20 disenfranchised by "lost votes."

Who is behind ES&S that its = way into=20 Florida seemed so well lubricated? Its
lobbyist: Sandra Mortham. = Mortham is=20 the frothingly partisan predecessor to
Harris as secretary of state, = a=20 founding member of Women for Jeb and the
official who in 1998, before = Harris,=20 promoted and carried out the first
round
of the fake felon purge. = If=20 Mortham's credentials as an unbiased source of
corrective voting = mechanisms=20 are a bit questionable, ES&S's track record for
reliability = should have=20 caused some concern. From Hawaii to Venezuela, there
have been = questions=20 about the company's machines.

In early voting during the week of = October=20 21, voters in Dallas County,
Texas,
complained that ES&S = touch-screen=20 machines were registering Democratic votes
as votes for Republican=20 candidates. This might affect one of the most
important Senate races = in the=20 country, between Democrat Ron Kirk and
Republican John = Cornyn.

It was=20 no surprise to me that ES&S machines failed. I tried the test=20 ballot
on
the company web site, and despite their supposedly = reliable=20 system, still
succeeded in "overvoting" and voting twice for the same = candidate -- until
their site seized up. Nor is it surprising that = problems=20 with the touch
screen
voting occurred mostly in African-American=20 precincts.

* * *

This story appears in a special edition = of=20 Southern Exposure magazine, "The
Right To Vote." Copies are available = for $5=20 at Southern Exposure, P.O. Box
531, Durham, NC 27702 or (919) = 419-8311 x21.=20 The full version of this story
will appear in the winter 2002/2003 = issue of=20 Southern Exposure.

Greg Palast is an award-winning BBC reporter = who has=20 also written for Salon,
Harper's, and the Washington Post. In = February,=20 Penguin Plume will issue a
special U.S. edition of Palast's book, The = Best=20 Democracy Money Can Buy,
with
the latest on his investigation of = vote=20 manipulation in Florida. Fredda
Weinberg contributed to this=20 report.
 
"We see the unhistorical and = ahistorical character=20 of bourgeois thought most strikingly when we consider the problem of the = present=20 as a historical problem."
 
-George = Lukacs
------=_NextPart_000_000B_01C28029.DF85D660-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 04:22:48 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:22:48 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187DPU-00045L-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:22:48 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187DO1-0000ol-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:21:17 -0700 Received: from fep05-svc.mail.telepac.pt ([194.65.5.209]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 186xdQ-0003lH-00 for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 11:32:08 -0700 Received: from jorge.mail.telepac.pt ([213.13.29.153]) by fep05-svc.mail.telepac.pt (InterMail vM.5.01.04.13 201-253-122-122-113-20020313) with ESMTP id <20021030183206.RXPA20921.fep05-svc.mail.telepac.pt@jorge.mail.telepac.pt> for ; Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:32:06 +0000 Message-Id: <5.0.2.1.0.20021030182807.00a5c320@mail.telepac.pt> X-Sender: jfigueir@mail.telepac.pt X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0.2 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: Jorge Figueiredo Subject: Re: [A-List] TFP interpela a Lula y Serra In-Reply-To: <021c01c2802c$312c5320$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> References: <20021029180626.0F9BF6CB2A@tino.sinectis.com.ar> <5.0.2.1.0.20021030145308.00a65cc0@mail.telepac.pt> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="=====================_31520515==_.ALT" Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:32:12 +0000 Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:32:12 +0000 --=====================_31520515==_.ALT Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable At 17:51 30-10-2002 +0200, you wrote: >Thanks Jorge for the information. If I had seen the website before then I= =20 >think even my linguistic limitations would have coped with the words=20 >"Tradicao, Familia, Propriedade". > >Just one more thing: what is TFP's position on Lula? For TFP, I think, all brazilian candidates were leftists, including the neoliberal Jose' Serra. Perhaps TFP have 5 or 10 thousand militants in Brazil. But the country have 175 millions inhabitants. It's a little drop in the ocean. JF > >The TFP site has links to other organisations internationally, including a= =20 >North American TFP, a French TFP, and various other outfits in Argentina,= =20 >Italy and Germany. The Italian outfit, Luci sull'Est, has an English=20 >website in which the exploits of its members and heroes are recorded amid= =20 >pious references to Our Lady of Fatima. Among these is reference to=20 >Correa's single-handed and successful effort to destroy the Soviet Union: > > > Light over the East began on a December night in 1990 > > as a group of Catholics from the West set out on a > > dilapidated Soviet train from Vilnius to Moscow. They > > were on their way to give Soviet dictator Mikhail > > Gorbachev 5.2 million signatures of people in the West > > who wished to express support for Catholic Lithuania=92s > > newly reaffirmed independence. These signatures had > > been collected in a petition drive initiated by the > > distinguished Catholic thinker and man of action Prof. > > Plinio Corr=EAa de Oliveira. > >I've wasted enough time with this organisation. > >Michael > Jorge Fidelino Galv=E3o de Figueiredo Visite o s=EDtio web da APVGN: --=====================_31520515==_.ALT Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable At 17:51 30-10-2002 +0200, you wrote:
Than= ks Jorge for the information. If I had seen the website before then I think even my linguistic limitations would have coped with the words "Tradicao, Familia, Propriedade".
 
Just one more thing: what is TFP's position on Lula?

For TFP, I think, all brazilian candidates were
leftists, including the neoliberal Jose' Serra.
Perhaps TFP have 5 or 10 thousand militants
in Brazil.  But the country have 175 millions
inhabitants.  It's a little drop in the ocean.
JF

 
The TFP site has links to other organisations internationally, including a North American TFP, a French TFP, and various other outfits in Argentina, Italy and Germany. The Italian outfit, Luci sull'Est, has an English website in which the exploits of its members and heroes are recorded amid pious references to Our Lady of Fatima. Among these is reference to Correa's single-handed and successful effort to destroy the Soviet Union:
 
> Light over the East began on a December night in 1990
> as a group of Catholics from the West set out on a
> dilapidated Soviet train from Vilnius to Moscow.  They
> were on their way to give Soviet dictator Mikhail
> Gorbachev 5.2 million signatures of people in the West
> who wished to express support for Catholic Lithuania=92s
> newly reaffirmed independence.  These signatures had
> been collected in a petition drive initiated by the
> distinguished Catholic thinker and man of action Prof.
> Plinio Corr=EAa de Oliveira.
 
I've wasted enough time with this organisation.
 
Michael
 

Jorge Fidelino Galv=E3o de Figueiredo
Visite o s=EDtio web da APVGN:
<http://www.apvgn.pt>


 --=====================_31520515==_.ALT-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 04:42:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:42:37 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187Die-0004AW-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:42:36 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187DiT-0000yq-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:42:25 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187Dhf-0000yg-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 04:41:35 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VBfND31483 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 13:41:23 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VBfMA31409 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 13:41:22 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 13:43:24 +0200 Message-ID: <009101c280d2$44907300$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: References: <3DC04143.1111.58B94C@localhost> Subject: Re: [A-List] Playing chicken, huh? X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 11:43:24.0335 (UTC) FILETIME=[B84D33F0:01C280D2] Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 13:40:10 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 13:40:10 +0200 Néstor writes: The whole spirit behind the FT piece is completely revealing that they are beginning to realize what will happen within a few years, not only in Argentina but elsewhere in Latin America. They will be sent off the road, probably to the abyss, by an increasingly fierce driver on the competing car. ----- Thank you Néstor for taking time to respond to that. I try to forward relevant material on Latin America to the list because, in the international hullaballoo surrounding the "war on terror" etc., this crucial arena is being forgotten, precisely at the point when it is poised to make a significant turn leftward. I hope that you, Jorge, Julio and others will continue to keep us advised on events as they are happening, and help us to see through the sort of reports we find in the Financial Times et al. As you say, these reports tell us a lot about the state of mind of their authors and sponsors. Best, Michael From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:06:03 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:06:03 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187E5L-0004G4-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:06:03 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187E3o-00016g-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:04:28 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187E2y-00016R-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:03:36 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VC3OP25838 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:03:24 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VC3NA25776 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:03:23 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:05:26 +0200 Message-ID: <015301c280d5$5878db20$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:05:26.0155 (UTC) FILETIME=[CC2AEDB0:01C280D5] Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:02:11 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:02:11 +0200 US prepares war crime charges against Saddam's 'dirty dozen' IAN BRUCE The Herald, 31 October 2002 WHITE House lawyers are preparing war crimes indictments against Saddam Hussein, his sons Uday and Qusay, and against Ali Hassan Majeed, the man who used nerve and mustard gas to kill 5000 Kurdish civilians in 1988. The "dirty dozen" of the Iraqi dictator's kitchen cabinet are also to be charged with offences against humanity and genocide. The fate of the core leadership in Baghdad is a central plank of the US campaign to overthrow Saddam, strip his military of all weapons of mass destruction and install a democratic government. The US administration envisages prosecutions along the lines of the Nuremberg trials which followed the defeat of Nazi Germany in the second world war and the international tribunal in The Hague which is trying Slobodan Milosevic for attempted genocide. The threat is seen as the next stage in America's escalating psychological warfare campaign against Baghdad in advance of decisive military action some time next year. George W Bush met Hans Blix, the UN chief weapons inspector, in Washington yesterday to discuss implementation of a draft resolution that would give the inspections team power to disarm Saddam. At the UN, the United States and France moved closer to agreement on a security council resolution, with Washington conceding the need to consult the world body before any attack against Iraq. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:09:44 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:09:44 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187E8u-0004IL-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:09:44 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187E8b-0001BT-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:09:25 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187E7c-0001BF-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:08:24 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VC8Bj29630 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:08:11 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VC8AA29568 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:08:10 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:10:12 +0200 Message-ID: <015b01c280d6$033bc2c0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:10:12.0671 (UTC) FILETIME=[76F1CCF0:01C280D6] Subject: [A-List] UK state: political realignment Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:06:58 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:06:58 +0200 Portillo's 'mutterings' claim fuels leadership speculation MICHAEL SETTLE The Herald, 31 October 2002 MICHAEL Portillo last night fuelled speculation over Iain Duncan Smith's future by urging him to shape up and "fight back" amid Westminster talk of Conservative discontent and a possible leadership challenge. Speaking on FiveNews, the Conservative MP for Kensington and Chelsea, who last year was defeated by Mr Duncan Smith in a leadership battle, confirmed there was talk on the Tory back benches of a possible leadership challenge. He said: "I don't want to kid you, there have been mutterings and I think Iain Duncan Smith has to fight back. The position is perfectly retrievable but he has got to fight for it. "He has to show he wants the leadership and he's got to show which direction he is leading us in." It is claimed there are already 25 back-bench Conservatives prepared to trigger a leadership contest, but none is so far willing to step forward and begin the process. Mr Portillo's remarks came just hours after a Mori poll showed Mr Duncan Smith's approval rating had slipped to its lowest since he became leader. Most galling for him was the figure that showed his approval rating among Tories was minus seven. With Conservative MPs describing the mood within the party as "gloomy" and "ghastly", the prospect of a leadership challenge this year is growing. Mr Portillo, conspicuously more present in the Commons of late, ruled himself out of wanting the party leadership, declaring: "I'm not interested." He denied he was one of the "mutterers" and insisted Tories would make "complete fools of themselves" if they changed their leader every 12 months Mr Portillo urged Mr Duncan Smith to stamp his authority on the party by making "some very strong speech". Coincidentally, the Tory leader is due to end a regional tour tomorrow with an address in Easterhouse, Glasgow, repeating a visit he made in February, after which he claimed his experiences there had made him "a changed man". ----- Portillo stirs row over Tory leadership Nicholas Watt, political correspondent Thursday October 31, 2002 The Guardian Michael Portillo last night blew open the crisis in the Tory party when he called on Iain Duncan Smith to overcome his "difficult situation" by launching a fightback to prevent a leadership challenge against him before the next election. In a move which will infuriate the Tory leadership, the former cabinet minister became the first senior Tory to admit in public that Mr Duncan Smith is in trouble when he warned of "mutterings" among MPs. His intervention came after three newspapers, including the Guardian, reported that 25 MPs were on standby to trigger a leadership contest. As William Hague spearheaded a fightback to save Mr Duncan Smith, by pleading with Tory MPs to stand by their leader, Mr Portillo insisted that he had no interest in the leadership. But he blew apart a carefully orchestrated operation by Tory central office to dismiss Tory rebels when he said: "I don't want to kid you. There have been mutterings and I think Iain Duncan Smith has to fight back. The position is perfectly retrievable. But he has got to fight. He has got to show he wants the leadership." On Channel Five News last night, Mr Portillo said Mr Duncan Smith should press on with his modernising campaign and not repeat the mistake of the former Tory leader Mr Hague, who failed to settle on a consistent course. In a swipe at Mr Duncan Smith, who beat him in last year's leadership contest, Mr Portillo called on him to follow the example of the Labour leader Harold Wilson who "brilliantly" silenced his critics. "There was a lot of muttering against him and he brilliantly went to his party conference and said 'A lot of you think I don't know what's going on. I know what is going on. I am going on.' That is the sort of spirit we need. Iain needs to make it perfectly clear he is going on." Insisting he was "not doing the muttering", Mr Portillo refused to say whether Mr Duncan Smith would survive until the next general election. Asked whether he would challenge for the leadership, Mr Portillo said: "I don't want to be leader of the party. I can't tell what is going to happen. But if Iain wants to pull the situation back, he can." Mr Portillo's less than enthusiastic endorsement of Mr Duncan Smith will be a blow to the Tory leadership, which had hoped that Mr Duncan Smith had saved his skin, for the moment at least, with a strong performance in the Commons, where he was generally believed to have outwitted Tony Blair on health and education. Tory whips launched an operation to support Mr Duncan Smith in the Commons. Scores of MPs loudly cheered him as he tackled the prime minister. Buoyed up by his strong performance, Mr Duncan Smith embarked on a tour of the Commons tea room, accompanied by the Tory chairwoman, Theresa May. Loyalists were particularly delighted that Mr Hague decided to write a piece in today's Times saying his successor should be given a chance. Mr Hague, who faced similar sniping during his four years as Tory leader, decided to speak out after yesterday's headlines. A friend of the previous Tory leader said: "This is the first time William has done anything like this since the leadership contest. But he felt it was time to say something." Most MPs agree Mr Duncan Smith must put in a strong performance when he replies to the Queen's speech on November 13. If he emerges unscathed, he must then ensure that the Tories do well in next May's local elections. ----- Duncan Smith is finished. Voters want a human being The quiet man's failure has at least paved the way for Kenneth Clarke Hugo Young Thursday October 31, 2002 The Guardian Iain Duncan Smith is the ultimate argument in favour of the importance of personality in politics. He doesn't have one. Those who put him where he is today thought that didn't matter. They knew he was a small, obsessive, honest character entirely lacking in refulgence. They clothed him with an ideology they thought he embodied, and an integrity they then decided to regard as the be-all and end-all of leadership. But already he is finished. Even the rightwing press are saying so. Less than 18 months after choosing him, the Conservative party is deciding it made a mistake. The quiet man wrote his own epitaph. A year from now he will not, I think, be with us. Ideas do matter, and IDS has struggled to find some. But personality, in the modern age, matters more. It is via his face and other instinctive vibes that a leader registers what kind of human being he is, which is the prime concern of most voters who pay little attention to what is going on. To succeed from a standing start, without the credentials of experience, coming out of nowhere, a leader needs first to be seen as a fully paid up member of the human race. This is why Tony Blair so quickly became a popular leader, and remains one, to an extent that Gordon Brown could probably never be. Blair is less defined by politics than most other practitioners of the game. He exudes normality. He is attentive but not, it seems, obsessive. In silly tests by opinion pollsters, his image is associated with drinks and cars that conform to the preferences of regular people. IDS is put down as a dry sherry man, a potation now associated, if at all, with golf club socials that are likely to be all-white and elderly. The leader's patent inability - an unalterable feature of the model - to fill the minimal leadership spec means that, as long as he is there, the Conservative party will continue to be doomed. And now it knows it. What are the essential pieces of the leaderly personality? Four are surely crucial. A leader needs nerve: chutzpah in defence of risk is a key component. A leader needs menace: the instilling of a certain fear, growing out of the capacity for dangerous surprise. A leader needs wit: the ability to make swift repartee for television, never flummoxed, sometimes outrageous, usually winning. A leader needs steel: a quiet intransigence of purpose that everybody understands, without always being certain of the inner game he may be playing. These talents have to serve a fifth requirement, which is, of course, some kind of vision. Blair had a vision that was easy to read and easier to justify. The past dictated it. There had to be reform. Blair's nerve, his threats, his platform facility, his back-room skills, and above all his steel, imposed a reform of the Labour party that had the history of 15 years' painful failure on its side. That's what carried the party. But, among the wider electorate, the vision was less important than the personality promoting it. The voters wanted to be sure Labour wouldn't make another mess of the economy, but took only passing interest in clause 4. They wanted to be sure they were going to be led by a man they related to, a potentially big man who could sweep aside his enemies, speaking by natural instinct both from and to the world that they inhabited. Duncan Smith, contrary to what some expected, did make a stumbling approach towards a vision. Even he, with his rightist pedigree, saw the need to reach beyond it. Something had to change in a party widely seen as nasty. The juvenilia and xenophobic fanaticism of the immediate past had to be replaced. Striking out in this direction, IDS made a partial escape from the atavistic demands of the Telegraph and the Mail, those two lead-weights forever holding the Tory party down in an antique, paralysed righteousness. Already he has tentatively moved it. The trouble is that hardly anyone notices or cares. The ideas bit has just begun to shift, but the personality bit - the agent of belief, the conduit to public interest - is intractable. Under present management it will always be so. However, the leader has performed a service. The conditions are now different from 18 months ago, when IDS was chosen by the rank and file. He has led Conservatism to the edge of the precipice where it can finally see rock bottom. But he has also paved the way for somebody not like him. Having abandoned the hardline agenda, he has released the party from the cul de sac that led it inexorably, the last two times, towards the dead end of the old right. Groping for a centrist position, in other words, it is free to consider the kind of personality that might make a leader. It can look for someone whose style, and scale, and nerve, and confidence, and swift wit in handling Tony Blair might make it feel good about itself, inject a little self-belief, disturb the multiple complacencies that cross-cut with anxious frenzy to define the mental state of the government: and might put some energy behind an effort to construct the Tory version of public service improvement which is the main task of modern British politics. The front-runner for this role appears to be Michael Portillo. He looks like the obvious replacement, by age and experience. He was a fine minister and remains a man of large thoughts. He qualifies under the headings of risk and nerve and possibly menace. But he is not steely. His most recent discussion of his future, with David Frost, revealed a furrowed neurotic who can't make up his mind. Like David Davis, the light weight chancer, Portillo would offer no absolute guarantee that the party might not be looking for yet another new leader before very long. The man for whom IDS's trajectory - political shift and personality wipe-out alike - prepares the way is, in truth, Kenneth Clarke. For a demoralised party, Clarke is the only man who checks out all the boxes. His problem is Europe, where he goes against the majority Tory grain. But IDS did Clarke a special favour by not only moving things centrewards but decreeing that Europe was no longer to be high on the party agenda. Though there is a party line, everyone could say what they wanted. Putting Europe in its place, IDS made Clarke, the unfashionable europhile, more credible as his replacement Europe obviously remains an issue, though if Blair renounced the referendum it would be irrelevant. I believe, such is the depth of justified gloom and panic among active Tories, that Clarke's personal qualities - his size, his humanity, his bullish noise, his capacity for swift and lethal shafting of the other side - are now ready to be seen as more important than the inconvenience of his euro opinions. In place of the quiet dry stick that can barely stir a pile of autumn leaves, the Tories have in their armoury a flaming broadsword. They need it for their survival. One way or another, I think that is what they will in due course produce to fight the next election. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:10:41 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:10:41 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187E9p-0004IW-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:10:41 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187E9c-0001CH-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:10:29 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187E8m-0001Bo-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:09:36 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VC9OS00402 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:09:24 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VC9MA32739 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:09:22 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:11:24 +0200 Message-ID: <016301c280d6$2e386640$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:11:24.0764 (UTC) FILETIME=[A1EA51C0:01C280D6] Subject: [A-List] Germany: banking crisis? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:08:10 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:08:10 +0200 German money machine grinds to a halt Europe's most powerful banking sector is on red alert Mark Milner and Jill Treanor Thursday October 31, 2002 The Guardian Germany's banking system is facing a crisis of confidence. Profits are evaporating and share prices crumbling, prompting uncomfortable comparisons with Japan's troubled finance houses. The latest indication of the German disease comes this morning from Deutsche, the country's largest and once the world's biggest bank. There is little doubt that the third quarter figures will make grim reading. In just three months Deutsche's profits are expected to have fallen to ?129m (£81.5m) from ?721m, according to analysts at Lehman Brothers. What is doubly grim is the expectation that they will still be better than those of its stock market-quoted peers, Commerzbank and HVB. HVB has already reported a third quarter loss while Commerzbank has hinted it might finish the year in the red. Customers whose finances were in this state could expect a pointed missive from their branch manager. The banks, too, are coming in for a harsh response - from investors. Deutsche's share price has crashed 30% in the last three months - although it bounced back by some 7% yesterday - and is little more than half the level at which it stood in early January. Commerzbank's fall from favour has been even more precipitous. Its shares are now changing hands at around ?7, just a third of the figure seen in November last year. HVB, where chief executive Albrecht Schmidt is to step down earlier than planned, is down by more than 60% over 12 months. Deutsche - which, when it bought Bankers Trust in the US four years ago, claimed a place on the world leader board - now has a market capitalisation of about £18bn, allowing five British banks to claim they are bigger in investors' eyes. As well as HSBC, which is in the global rankings already, HBOS (the merged Halifax-Bank of Scotland), Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Lloyds TSB are all bigger than the German powerhouse. Does it matter? To some in the City of London it means the ambitions of Barclays and Lloyds TSB in particular to expand in Europe may be thwarted. John-Paul Crutchley, a banking analyst at Merrill Lynch, says the relative strengths of the British banks may in fact work to their disadvantage, because they would appear to be exploiting rivals' weakness. "In some ways, if they want to be more aggressive it could help [the British banks]. But these are difficult, political trade-offs. This could actually prevent rather than incentivise deals," Mr Crutchley warns those expecting weakness to lead to a flurry of deals. So what has gone wrong with the German banks? In the short term, the simple answer is the German economy. It has virtually ground to a halt. Even Jürgen Stark, the vice-president of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, acknowledged yesterday that the country was on the verge of stagnation, although he denied it would slide into recession. Next year doesn't look much better, either. Empty offices A struggling economy matters to all banks, but to Germany's it matters more than most. A huge slice of the economy is accounted for by the Mittelstand, the small and medium-sized sector. Significantly, and unlike other similar sectors elsewhere in Europe, these businesses rely far more on borrowing from the banks than raising equity capital. So when the bad times hit, more go bust, leaving the banking sector, rather than investors, to suffer. Corporate insolvencies are expected to reach 35,000 this year and could approach 45,000 next, according to a Commerzbank estimate. Real estate has played a part in dragging down returns. Speculative building in cities such as Berlin and Leipzig have created a surfeit of empty offices. Voids mean no income, no income means paying the bank loans becomes a problem. Slumping stock markets have taken their toll, too, as banks have seen the value of their equity portfolios fall steeply. The downturn in the economy and rise in bankruptcies has merely served to high light structural faultlines in the sector. Germany's banking industry is a paradox. On one hand it is too competitive, on the other it is not sufficiently competitive. Take the income side. Big banks such as Deutsche, Commerzbank, HVB and Dresdner Bank - which is part of the Allianz empire - face competition from the landesbanks, which are backed by the regional state governments. That gives them a better credit rating, which in turn allows them to borrow more cheaply than private sector rivals. The terms at which they can onlend then puts a squeeze on the margins of their private sector rivals, who have to pay more for their capital. The competition authorities in Brussels have cottoned to the mismatch and ordered the German authorities to level things up, but the changes won't come until 2005. Even then, there will be a strong case for saying that Germany has too many banks. Some analysts reckon fragmentation will make it difficult to exert much by way of pricing pressure. Strong competition might have been expected to produce a lean, mean, banking machine. If only. The big banks are making huge efforts to chop out costs, but still have a long way to go. Commerzbank analysts calculate that Deutsche Bank will have a cost to income ratio of almost 85% this year, while the figure for HVB will be just over 72%. By comparison the figures for Barclays and HSBC are 55% and 59% respectively. "There is a way out if the economy improves. But if things keep going downhill, the rate at which [the banks] are burning capital will compound the problem," said one analyst. The banks are not only suffering from the downturn, they are fast becoming part of the economic problem itself. Faced with soaring loan losses there are clear signs that they are taking a tougher line on lending. Last week, a survey by financial magazine DMEuro reported that three-quarters of Mittelstand companies were running into problems borrowing money - from higher rates to outright rejection. "The commercial banks are becoming more and more risk-averse in lending, and we think they will be restrictive in lending in the future," says Jürgen Michels at Schroder Salomon Smith Barney. The landesbanks may be prepared to pick up some of the slack, but their capacity is finite. The last thing the German economy - and, by extension, the German banking system - needs is a credit crunch. The parlous position of both, however, means they might just get one. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:24:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:24:38 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187ENK-0004Mz-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:24:38 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EN8-0001FD-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:24:26 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EKU-0001Dl-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:21:42 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VCLTR14314 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:21:29 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VCLQA14194 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:21:26 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:23:29 +0200 Message-ID: <017301c280d7$de2229a0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:23:29.0452 (UTC) FILETIME=[51DCEEC0:01C280D8] Subject: [A-List] France: Chirac vs. US Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:20:15 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:20:15 +0200 France is defending global order Jacques Chirac is not concerned with Iraq, but US unilateralism Jacques Amalric Thursday October 31, 2002 The Guardian So here's Jacques Chirac, coming out of his corner fighting, flooring George Bush, and with one mighty blow vanquishing the awful spectre of an Anglo-American military intervention against Saddam Hussein's Iraq . . . Ah well. There is every chance, it now appears, that pacifists of every kind and from every nation will soon have to put that appealing but rather simplistic image back in the storeroom of history. The struggle between the French and American ambassadors that has been going on for the past two weeks in the corridors of the United Nations does not, of course, mean that Mr Chirac has suddenly rekindled his former love affair with Iraq, which dates back to the early 1970s, and that he is trying by every means available to save Saddam's skin. No, what the present incumbent of the Elysée palace is defending is an international order - or an international disorder, depending on your point of view - that was born after the collapse of the Soviet Union and is threatened today by the new US doctrine of preventive unilateral intervention. Mr Chirac was, incidentally, obliged to make that point clear at the close of the Francophone summit in Beirut earlier this month. Several Arab countries claimed to see in France a rampart of the Iraqi regime, forcing the French president to reprimand his audience. "The crux of the matter," he said, "is that the international community must not provide cover for any 'automaticity' of intervention against Iraq before we know the extent to which the Iraqi authorities are actually going to cooperate with the weapons inspections." It is France's desire to hunt down and weed out every last risk of automaticity in the US draft resolution, not any desire to protect Saddam, that explains the laborious negotiations in New York. And privately, French diplomats who are close to the action are under no illusion at all: for them, it is quite clear that Iraq will never comply fully with the very strict obligations likely to be imposed on it next week by the security council. Then it will be time to move on to phase two of the Chirac scenario, which is the adoption of a second resolution authorising the use of force. But the Franco-American disagreement is also about - although Mr Chirac avoids saying so too loudly - the priorities of US action in general. In these days of the war against terrorism (or should we say war against terrorisms), in the wake of the attack in Bali - to say nothing of the recent tragedy in Moscow - is the priority of priorities really to get rid of Saddam Hussein? The fact that no formal link whatsoever has been established between the regime in Baghdad and the nebulous al-Qaida network, and the fact that Washington practically gave carte blanche to Ariel Sharon to carry on with his policy of repression, are, of course, further weaknesses in the American position that France has not hesitated to expose. But when it comes to Mr Chirac's personality we have to add a psychological footnote. Frustrated by five years of power-sharing with a Socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin, who condemned him to adopting a humiliatingly low profile in terms of foreign policy, Mr Chirac is determined to make up for lost time. He is no longer prepared to sit on the sidelines, champing at the bit. That explains his multiple recent interventions in multiple different places, all with the objective of making France, for want of a united Europe, the principal counterweight to the all-powerful United States of America. Even if the analogy makes one smile, it is no accident if conversations at the Elysée palace these days often include references to the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, during which General Charles de Gaulle assured John Kennedy of his fullest possible support. But we are not back in 1962 and Mr Chirac, who is a lot more pragmatic than he would ever like to admit, knows very well the precise weight of France. Hence his considerable irritation at seeing Britain align itself with Washington's positions, thereby blocking a general Europe-wide acceptance of the Chirac strategy. So in Brussels last Friday, Tony Blair bore the brunt of Mr Chirac's displeasure. This was no bad thing for the French president in terms of domestic politics, even if Mr Blair's criticisms of the Franco-German accord on the common agricultural policy bore the stamp of plain common sense. But is Jacques Chirac really a European? He says so, but very rarely - except at times when the French national interest, and the interests of Jacques Chirac, can be conveniently draped with the European flag. · Jacques Amalric is editor of the French daily paper Libération From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:24:45 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:24:45 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187ENR-0004N7-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:24:45 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EIG-0001DK-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:19:25 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EHl-0001DB-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:18:53 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VCIeB11345 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:18:40 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VCIdA11270 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:18:39 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:20:41 +0200 Message-ID: <016b01c280d7$79fddf00$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:20:41.0389 (UTC) FILETIME=[EDB08DD0:01C280D7] Subject: [A-List] US elections: monitors welcome Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:17:27 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:17:27 +0200 Russia to monitor American elections Oliver Burkeman in New York Thursday October 31, 2002 The Guardian Amid the worldwide outbreak of Schadenfreude that accompanied America's chaotic presidential showdown in 2000, senior members of the Russian Communist party sarcastically offered to send election monitors to Palm Beach to help the nascent democracy find its feet. Albanian politicians echoed the joke, as did President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe. But the line between jokes and reality in Florida has always been a blurred one: now, America has accepted the offer. Yesterday, the first international delegation of poll monitors assigned to observe an American election arrived in the US, operating under the aegis of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe. And representatives from Russia and Albania were among them. The monitors are charged with assessing whether next Tuesday's mid-term elections in Florida meet international standards of democracy "with a focus on evaluation of the actions the authorities have undertaken to remedy the problems that were observed during the 2000 elections", OSCE spokesman Jens-Hagen Eschenbacher said in an interview with Radio Free Europe. Two years ago voting machines malfunctioned and ballot papers left thousands of voters complaining that they had voted against their true intentions. There were also reports of problems with the Democratic primary election for the governorship of Florida which was held last September. "It is not the first time that a western democracy has been monitored," Mr Eschenbacher said. "We also assessed the ... presidential elections in France, and we are about to send an assessment team to Turkey as well." But it is a first for the US, and an event likely to be received with some glee in countries lectured by Washington on their electoral processes. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:25:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:25:38 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EOI-0004NI-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:25:38 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EO5-0001GM-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:25:25 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187ENE-0001FV-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:24:32 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VCOK717241 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:24:20 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VCOIA17179 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:24:18 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:26:21 +0200 Message-ID: <017b01c280d8$448a49c0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:26:21.0264 (UTC) FILETIME=[B8455D00:01C280D8] Subject: [A-List] UK state: trade union aristocracy Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:23:07 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:23:07 +0200 Union chiefs offered six-figure golden handshakes By Barrie Clement and Andrew Grice The Independent, 31 October 2002 Sir Ken Jackson and a senior aide at the centre of ballot rigging allegations are expected to receive more than £300,000 each as part of golden handshakes from their union. Sir Ken, once the Prime Minister's favourite trade unionist, will receive a cash payment of nearly £100,000 plus the profit from the sale of his union-owned house, which could be at least £200,000. The 65-year-old leader of Amicus-AEEU will also enjoy a pension worth two thirds of his £78,000 salary. The executive of the union, which is dominated by his supporters, has also backed a £320,000 severance package for Charlie McKenzie, who organised Sir Ken's unsuccessful campaign to remain as general secretary of the union. Mr McKenzie, 60, who like Sir Ken was alleged to have been present when the ballot rigging was planned, will receive a lump sum of £70,000 and his £50,000 salary each year until he retires at 65. He will then receive a pension of two thirds of his wages. The allegations of ballot rigging have been made by Roger Maskell, a former senior union official, who left the organisation after admitting his role in "double voting" in a nominating process that preceded the ballot for the top post in the union. Mr Maskell is taking the union to an employment tribunal, alleging he was unfairly dismissed. Sir Ken and Mr McKenzie deny any involvement in electoral irregularities. A union official said that under a seven-year-old agreement Sir Ken qualified for a much larger cash payment. His contract states that he is entitled to a lump sum of three times his salary plus the list price of his union Jaguar car. This would come to a total of about £250,000, which he would have received in addition to his pension and the profit from the house. Instead he has asked for one week's salary per year of service plus three months' wages, giving him a payment of £75,000. He also opted for the list price of his previous, more modest car, valued at £20,000. Another senior source said Sir Ken was trying to negotiate a lower pay-off because of "embarrassment" at the scale of the money involved. The official described Mr McKenzie's terms as "a disgrace". Sir Ken is due to retire next month when his victorious left-wing opponent, Derek Simpson, will take over. Mr McKenzie said his package was not unusual. "I've been an officer of the union for 25 years and this package was agreed with me back in 1996. I could have left every year since that time, but I've stayed on. I'm getting nothing special." But one member of Sir Ken's faction said the revelations would cost the group a victory in next year's executive elections. The massive "hamper" payments were negotiated in 1995 when the electricians' and engineers' unions merged and there was a need to reduce the numbers on the executive. The organisation formed out of the merger, the Amalgamated Engineering and Electrical Union, has since joined the Manufacturing Science Finance union to form Amicus. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:28:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:28:37 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187ERB-0004NZ-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:28:37 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EQy-0001Ju-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:28:24 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EPd-0001Ji-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:27:02 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VCQnd20762 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:26:49 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VCQlA20695 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:26:47 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:28:49 +0200 Message-ID: <018301c280d8$9cef1280$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:28:49.0546 (UTC) FILETIME=[10A766A0:01C280D9] Subject: [A-List] UK corporate state: PPPs & military hiccups Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:25:35 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:25:35 +0200 Pilots cannot fly £3bn Army helicopters By Gavin Cordon The Independent, 31 October 2002 About half the Army's new Apache attack helicopters, bought for £3bn, will have to be taken out of service for up to four years because pilots cannot be trained in time to fly them, the Whitehall spending watchdog warns today. The National Audit Office said that although the aircraft were being delivered on time, a private finance initiative deal to train the aircrew was three years behind schedule. Dozens of aircraft would have to be stored in hangars because the completion date for the initial training programme for 144 pilots had been put back from April 2004 to February 2007. The NAO warned that the delay in training had put in jeopardy the delivery of the first fully equipped regiment of 16 Apaches, scheduled for February 2005. It said the Army could face a "significant capability gap" because the life of the TOW wire-guided missiles on its ageing Lynx helicopters could not be extended. The NAO also said contractual problems over the supply of spares meant that the Apaches kept in storage may have to be cannibalised for parts so that other aircraft could carry on flying. When the initial order for 67 Apaches was placed with Westland Helicopters in 1995, its combination of firepower and manoeuvrability was said to offer the biggest enhancement of the Army's fighting capability since the introduction of the tank. Originally it had been intended that Westland, as the prime contractor, would also supply the training, but the MoD decided that the deal on offer was "unaffordable". Instead a separate PFI agreement was reached with Atil - a company jointly owned by Westland and the Apache's US manufacturer Boeing - which was supposed to save £23m. But it was beset with problems. The hi-tech flight simulator ran into technical difficulties which delayed delivery by 17 months and meant pilot training, originally scheduled for 2001, will not now start until September next year. At the same time the duration of the training courses has had to be extended from 15 weeks to 26 weeks - in part because the helicopter is now much more sophisticated than had been originally envisaged. However the original programme was based on the experience of the US Army, which trains in Alabama, and failed to take account of the fact that many more flying days are likely to be lost to poor weather in the UK. As a result, the NAO said that between 2002 and 2006, a "large number" of Apaches - some estimates say more than half - would have to be stored away in hangars at RAF Shawbury in Shropshire at a cost of £6m. Already, 11 of the 25 helicopters so far delivered have been put into storage. Although the PFI deal was supposed to save money, the MoD had to write off £34m due to the cancellation of maintenance courses because Westland failed to deliver the training material on time. The NAO also revealed the first Apache crews would have no secure radio communications with British ground troops or other helicopters - although they would be able to speak to the Americans - because of delays to the Army's Bowman radio system. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:32:58 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:32:58 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EVO-0004Of-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:32:58 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187ETs-0001KU-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:31:24 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187ESg-0001KL-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:30:10 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VCTvX23055 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:29:57 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VCTsA22876 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:29:54 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:31:57 +0200 Message-ID: <018b01c280d9$0cee5640$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:31:57.0421 (UTC) FILETIME=[80A2D9D0:01C280D9] Subject: [A-List] Palestine: UK war crimes investigation Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:28:43 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:28:43 +0200 Scotland Yard will examine claims of Israeli war crimes By Justin Huggler and Ian Burrell The Independent, 31 October 2002 Scotland Yard is investigating a former Israeli army chief over alleged war crimes committed by Israeli soldiers against Palestinians in the Occupied Territories this year. Lt-Gen Shaul Mofaz, who is in Britain on a fund-raising tour, is widely tipped in Israel to be named by Ariel Sharon as the new Defence Minister after the coalition government collapsed yesterday. He retired as Chief of Staff in July. A British Muslim group has accused Lt-Gen Mofaz of responsibility as commander for alleged violations of the Geneva Conventions. The Israeli army is accused of using Palestinians as human shields, assassinating militants, torturing prisoners, and destroying civilian homes. The inquiry comes after Imran Khan, a British lawyer known for his role in the Stephen Lawrence case, presented a 17-page dossier to the Director of Public Prosecutions, who passed it to Scotland Yard's crimes against humanity unit. Mr Khan, who is representing families of alleged victims, says the case can be investigated and tried in Britain because all Geneva Convention signatories are obliged to enforce them, wherever breaches are committed. Many accusations relate to the Israeli attack on Jenin in April, an incursion which provoked a plea from the Human Rights Watch organisation for a war crimes investigation. Other allegations relate to Israeli operations across the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip during Lt-Gen Mofaz's time as Chief of Staff. The Israeli military regularly assassinates Palestinian militants, in what it calls "targeted killings". From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:33:51 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:33:51 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EWF-0004Oq-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:33:51 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EVp-0001Le-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:33:25 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EV9-0001LV-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:32:43 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VCWUW25637 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:32:30 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VCWTA25575 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:32:29 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:34:32 +0200 Message-ID: <019b01c280d9$695916e0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:34:32.0530 (UTC) FILETIME=[DD169B20:01C280D9] Subject: [A-List] Italy: another Berlusconi scandal Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:31:18 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:31:18 +0200 Berlusconi edges ahead in battle over judges By Peter Popham in Rome The Independent, 30 October 2002 An act of parliament designed, opponents charge, to keep Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's closest political and business ally out of jail, drew one step closer to becoming law yesterday. Opposition MPs tried to force the Italian parliament to reconsider the bill with new amendments this week, but a committee of MPs approved the passage of the law in its present form. It remains for the Senate to pass the Cirami bill, a certainty, and for the President to sign it, which is likely. Cesare Previti, an MP in Mr Berlusconi's Forza Italia party and minister of defence in his 1994 administration, is on trial in Milan on charges of bribing judges and false accounting. But Mr Berlusconi believes the judges in Milan are prejudiced against him and determined to damage him. The bill will allow defendants with "legitimate suspicion" that the judges are biased to have the trial switched to an alternative jurisdiction. Mr Berlusconi's supporters insist the law will merely restore a right withdrawn from defendants some years ago, when it was said that accused Mafiosi were escaping justice by having their cases switched. Mr Berlusconi wants the case moved to the central Italian city of Perugia. Once the bill has been passed by the Senate, President Carlo Ciampi has a month to sign it into law - long enough in theory for the Milan court to put Mr Previti behind bars or acquit him. Recently, Mr Berlusconi's high popularity rating has begun to slump. "But that's not because of the trial," says Dr James Walston of the American University at Rome, "but because he's messing with the economy. Many people say, 'We know he's a crook but so what as long as he delivers on the economy.' But now he's no longer delivering." Also from the Europe section. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:34:01 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:34:01 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EWP-0004P1-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:34:01 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EUr-0001LA-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:32:25 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EUJ-0001Kp-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:31:51 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VCVdO24827 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:31:39 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VCVcA24765 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:31:38 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:33:40 +0200 Message-ID: <019301c280d9$4a92fa00$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:33:40.0905 (UTC) FILETIME=[BE514190:01C280D9] Subject: [A-List] EU integration struggles: UK/France tiff Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:30:26 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:30:26 +0200 Analysis: Another undiplomatic spat in history of a relationship riven by resentment and rivalry Plus ça change - the row between Blair and Chirac is just the latest in a partnership that has all too often been anything but cordial By John Lichfield in Paris The Independent, 31 October 2002 There is no row like an Anglo-French row. Foes or nominal friends, we have been going for each other at the slightest excuse for more than 1,000 years. Or rather, recently we have mostly been going for them. We enjoy nothing more than to have new reasons to hate the French. Les Francais , for their part, seem mostly bored or politely amused by the episode but that is probably just another example of their treachery. Until this month, we were apparently running out of ammunition. The froggies had deflated our righteous indignation (treachery again) by promising to close the Sangatte refugee camp and eat British beef. There was always Iraq, of course, but that was always a complicated, broadsheet quarrel. A proper, post-modern Anglo-French row needs to engage the tabloid heavy artillery, bombarding the French as an entire nation of beret-wearing, unwashed, snail-eating, swarthy, bandy-legged hypocrites (some wonderful footballers and football managers excepted). Fortunately, Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac, the French President, contrived to have a verbal punch-up in Brussels just in time to fill the hiatus in cross-Channel warfare. What a cheek. The President of the rudest nation on earth dared to call our sweet Prime Minister "very rude". President Chirac has now postponed a Franco-British summit in Le Touquet in December where the two governments were to discuss, among other things, a project that might make Admiral Lord Nelson spin on the top of his column. There is a tentative plan for the two countries to develop and build together a new generation of aircraft carriers. Has this plan now met its Trafalgar? Probably not. The 1,000-year history of our quarrels is also a 1,000-year history of long-term national interests - and fundamental shared interests - finally reasserting themselves over real or exaggerated national differences. In many respects, Franco-British relations are excellent. In recent weeks, the new French government has defused two long-standing disputes between Paris and London: the illegal French ban on British beef and the Sangatte camp near Calais. Until recently, the two governments were even co-operating behind the scenes on the US-Iraq crisis. Officials in London, Paris and Brussels are, privately, astonished that two grown politicians should quarrel like fish-wives over such a standard piece of EU furniture as a Franco-British dispute on farm spending. On exactly the same subject President Chirac - then Prime Minister Chirac - said in a stage whisper at an EU summit in Brussels in 1987: "Does she [Margaret Thatcher] want my balls too?" This was treated at the time as a minor incident, not a cause for the kind of vituperation seen in the British press in recent days (which the French are convinced has been deliberately stoked by Downing Street). By contrast, the conservative, Chirac-supporting newspaper Le Figaro headed its witty and fair editorial on the subject: "A little quarrel between friends." Against this background, the origins of the Blair-Chirac quarrel are at once obvious and somewhat mysterious. Taking the obvious causes first, one can trace the recurrent patterns of Franco-British disputes, which go back respectively to Napoleon (at least) and Charles de Gaulle. Nothing was set in concrete in the negotiations in Brussels last week. The whole question of how the enlargement of the EU to the east should be funded remains open. In the end - that is, some time after 2006 - France will have to accept less funding for its farmers and Britain will have to accept a lower EU rebate. Everyone knows that. Why such a high-profile quarrel? Mr Blair, who has staked a part of his reputation on putting Britain back at the "heart of Europe", was evidently angry at the resurgence of the old Franco-German recipe to pre-cook EU deals. Fear of continental combinations has driven British policy since the 18th century. But why take that out on Mr Chirac, rather than Chancellor Gerhard Schröder? The Prime Minister lectured President Chirac - in a rather sanctimonious way, according to French officials - on the iniquities of the EU farm policy and its responsibility for damaging agriculture in the Third World. (In fact, the CAP, though still wrong-headed, is already much reformed and does not generate the market-distorting surpluses that it once did.) President Chirac took exception to Mr Blair's remarks, partly because he had been already irritated by what he regarded as the preaching tone of the Prime Minister's comments on Iraq a few days earlier. Mr Blair had said that Britain would join America in using force against Baghdad, even if the UN failed to agree a tough new resolution against Saddam Hussein. At a time when a French compromise plan was gaining ground in the Security Council in New York, Mr Chirac regarded Mr Blair's intervention as deeply unhelpful. This fits a persistent pattern of modern cross-channel mesententes , which goes back to the awkward wartime relationship between Winston Churchill and De Gaulle. Should Britain, when the chips are down, side with France and Europe; or with the United States? During the war, Churchill helped to create De Gaulle as a symbol of French resistance but grew infuriated with Le Généralwhen he insisted on defining, and defending, French interests, in conflict with allied ones. At one point, Churchill agreed an American plan to dump De Gaulle and had to be restrained by members of the British war cabinet. De Gaulle carried the grudge after the war. He vetoed Britain's first attempt to join the Common Market in 1963, saying London would always side with the American view of the world, and not help to build an alternative European vision. The Blair-Chirac quarrel is directly in line of descent from the Churchill-De Gaulle and McMillan-De Gaulle quarrels of the past. Yet the Brussels slanging match is also mysterious, in the way that personal chemistry between two people is always mysterious. This seems, to a large extent, to have been a spat between two men, rather than between two governments. Both men have come to regard themselves (with some justice on both sides) as important international players in the US-Iraqi chess game. At first, they co-operated behind the scenes reasonably well. Mr Blair was America's all-purpose friend. Mr Chirac was America's frank critic and admirer. Both roles were useful and both helped to pull Washington away from instant war and towards the UN. In recent days, Mr Blair and Mr Chirac appear to have become increasingly jealous and wary of one another's role in the Iraqi crisis. This is partly based on a real divergence of view and partly on mutual jealousy. One would-be international statesman and fixer in Europe is all very well. Two is a crowd. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:36:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:36:37 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EYv-0004PF-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:36:37 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EYj-0001ME-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:36:25 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EY0-0001M5-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:35:40 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VCZRY28546 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:35:27 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VCZQA28484 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:35:26 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:37:29 +0200 Message-ID: <01a301c280d9$d2d49180$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:37:29.0499 (UTC) FILETIME=[4691EEB0:01C280DA] Subject: [A-List] Europe/US rivalry: corporate governance Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:34:15 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:34:15 +0200 EU to push tough corporate governance rules By Francesco Guerrera in Brussels Financial Times: October 31 2002 Companies listed in the European Union face a new set of tough corporate governance rules aimed at preventing an Enron-style scandal in Europe. The rules are a sign of the EU's determination to increase investor protection and prevent corporate fraud in the wake of the crisis that rocked US markets. The rules, to be proposed to the European Commission by legal experts next week, could lead to a shake-up in corporate governance in several EU member states, including Germany, France, Italy and Spain. However, they stop short of an EU-wide binding corporate governance law similar to the US Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which had been feared by many European companies. After a six-month study, the Commission's group of company law experts is expected to recommend new measures to strengthen and harmonise the EU's widely diverging corporate governance rules. The Brussels authorities are expected to urge all European companies to adopt the guidelines, with the veiled threat of passing binding legislation if they fail to comply. People familiar with the report say it will recommend all listed companies publish remuneration of individual directors in the annual report. This would require changes in Germany and Spain. The seven-strong group, chaired by Jaap Winter, legal adviser to Unilever, is also expected to urge companies to allow shareholders to vote on the way directors' pay and bonuses are calculated at the annual general meeting. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:37:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:37:36 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EZs-0004PQ-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:37:36 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EZh-0001Mi-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:37:25 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EZ3-0001MZ-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:36:45 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VCaWP29490 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:36:32 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VCaUA29428 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:36:30 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:38:33 +0200 Message-ID: <01ab01c280d9$f90973c0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:38:33.0561 (UTC) FILETIME=[6CC10490:01C280DA] Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:35:19 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:35:19 +0200 Pentagon boosts Gulf force By Peter Spiegel in Washington and Carola Hoyos at the United Nations in New York Financial Times: October 31 2002 The Pentagon has been ordering new troops to the Gulf in a further sign that the US is preparing for war with Iraq should weapons inspections fail. Most of the new deployments - which come as US diplomats have signalled Washington's willingness to compromise on a United Nations resolution to send inspectors back into Iraq - are command personnel and elements of the US navy. There could be three or four aircraft carrier groups in the region by December but the US still lacks the number of ground troops needed for an invasion, a figure many experts put at 250,000. But military analysts said the pace of movements and planning had increased in recent weeks. This weekend sees the departure of the USS Constellation carrier group, which will head towards the Arabian Sea. The group, which includes 8,000 sailors on eight ships, will join the USS George Washington and the USS Abraham Lincoln, two other carrier groups in the region. It will be followed by the USS Harry Truman, which is scheduled to head to the Gulf in early December. Analysts said a significant amount of material, which might also be heading to locations in the Gulf, had recently been loaded on to transports at Californian ports. The Pentagon has sought to portray most of the activity in the Gulf as exercises or routine rotations of carrier groups. But many of the troops - including 600 personnel being moved from US Central Command headquarters to Qatar in December - could remain in the region. New signs emerged that the UN Security Council was coming close to agreeing on the wording of a resolution on Wednesday. George W. Bush, US president, met Hans Blix, head of the UN's weapons inspectors, and Mohammed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency - an indication the UN could dispatch the two men and their teams shortly. France and the US are edging closer to a compromise over language that decides whether the US must wait for the Security Council to convene before it could go to war. Diplomats now believe a vote could take place at the end of next week. This would mean inspectors could be in Iraq by the end of November. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:42:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:42:38 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187Eek-0004RX-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:42:38 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EeX-0001O9-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:42:25 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187Ee4-0001O0-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:41:56 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VCfiE02863 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:41:44 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VCfgA02801 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:41:42 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:43:45 +0200 Message-ID: <01b301c280da$b2d31900$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:43:45.0280 (UTC) FILETIME=[268D9000:01C280DB] Subject: [A-List] Germany: baying for "reform" Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:40:31 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:40:31 +0200 This is a brilliant piece of analysis: Germany is not facing deflation, because wages are high and are structurally prevented from adjusting too quickly downward -- this is a good thing. Germany needs to reform its system of wages because they are high and structurally prevented from adjusting quickly downwards. No wonder Allianz Group is not doing so well if this is the best its chief economist can come up with. Germany needs reform, not reflation By Michael Heise Financial Times: October 31 2002 The German economy, like Japan's, has been anaemic of late. Growth of only 0.5 per cent in the past two years and a steady slide towards the bottom of the growth league table since the mid-1990s have tarnished its reputation as the economic powerhouse of Europe. Germany suffers from weak domestic demand growth and a protracted investment slump, although not as much as Japan. However, there is no deflation in Germany. Consumer prices will be 1.5 per cent higher in 2002 than they were in 2001. Over the past decade they have climbed by 2.3 per cent a year, while in Japan they are more or less unchanged. But now that the stock market bubble has burst, will Germany not see a deflationary spiral? This is unlikely. First, wage levels adjust more slowly in Germany than in Japan and will keep prices from falling for longer. Second, there is no property bubble as there was in Japan when deflation set in. The bursting of the property market bubble affected the whole of corporate Japan, wiping out wealth equivalent to almost twice the gross domestic product. German house prices have been flat for years, with house-owners desperately waiting for them to rise. Third, the leveraging of the economy, the build-up of a credit bubble resulting in unsustainable and un- profitable production capacity, is in no way comparable to Japan's. These differences also show up in the real economy. In Germany, there is little idle capacity. Manufacturing is highly competitive in world markets. Since 1992, the share of German exports in world trade has remained steady at about 10 per cent, whereas the Japanese share has tumbled from 9 to 6 per cent. With its more open economy, with higher foreign direct investment, Germany has had to adjust more directly to changes in international markets. And, although Germany is not one of the economies with the freest markets, there has been far less state interference than in Japan. It is true there are similarities in the banking sector. But the differences are much greater. In Japan, the story begins with the deregulation and liberalisation of financial markets during the 1980s. Instead of adapting to increasingly global and open markets, Japan clung on to its main-bank relationships, keiretsu networks and links between business and government. In the 1990s, Japanese banks saw their collateral collapse with the bursting of the stock market and property bubbles. But, fearing the consequences of cleaning up their loan books, they pinned their hopes on a swift recovery. As a result, the once influential banks became too weak to provide risk capital for the economy. Enormous public work projects kept the economy afloat until the financial crisis of 1997-98 caused outright deflation. Germany's banking problems are more closely related to the recent capital market boom. High investment banking revenues concealed structural problems such as excess capacity and almost ruinous competition in the loan business. In the past five years, profits totalled ?100bn. There was, it seemed, no need for harsh structural adjustment and disinvestment. On the contrary, the boom triggered heavy investment in capital market operations and their back offices and expensive inter- national mergers. When capital markets collapsed and risk provisions soared in an ailing domestic economy, it became clear that the bloated cost base would not be sustainable. Delaying these necessary adjustments, for example by looser monetary or fiscal policies, would be pointless. Weaker growth prospects may justify a cut in interest rates - maybe by half a percentage point - but attempts to devalue the currency or reinflate the economy, as in Japan, would be counter-productive for Europe. Fears of devaluation and inflation would push up bond yields and hinder acceptance of the euro as an inter- national currency. International imbalances - a eurozone trade surplus and a large US trade deficit - would be perpetuated, not diminished. What is needed is not demand management but a strong euro and steady internal growth in the eurozone economies. To achieve that, many reforms are required, especially to labour markets. The main lesson from Japan's economic debacle of the past 10 years is that structural problems have to be dealt with by appropriate reforms, not by macroeconomic demand management. Germany's economic problems stem from high wage costs caused by an expensive social security system, high taxes, overwhelming bureaucracy and inflexible labour markets. Low inflation is not the problem. On the contrary, it is a welcome reaction of the economy to the business activity slump as it limits the loss in purchasing power. Beware of bad policy prescriptions arising from misleading comparisons. Before slipping into deflation, Japan ducked overdue structural reform with the help of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. Let us not repeat that mistake in Europe. The writer is chief economist of Allianz Group From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:44:39 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:44:39 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187Egh-0004Rl-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:44:39 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EgT-0001QX-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:44:25 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187Efj-0001QO-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:43:39 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VChQN04824 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:43:26 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VChOA04762 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:43:24 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:45:27 +0200 Message-ID: <01bb01c280da$efeb5b40$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:45:27.0764 (UTC) FILETIME=[63A36140:01C280DB] Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Iraq, Qatar Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:42:13 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:42:13 +0200 US to set up command post at Qatar air base By Peter Spiegel in Washington Financial Times: October 30 2002 The Pentagon will send more than 600 headquarters personnel from US central command to the Gulf in early December to set up a command post for US forces in the region, defence officials said on Tuesday. The new command post, expected to be set up at the al-Udeid air base in Qatar, will be established as part of month-long military exercises called Internal Look but the Pentagon may decide to leave it there indefinitely, where it could be used to direct US troops in an invasion of Iraq. Gen Tommy Franks, the head of central command - currently based at MacDill air force base in Tampa, Florida - will move with the new personnel, about a quarter of its staff, for at least a week. Although Internal Look exercises occur every other year, this will be the first time a deployable headquarters will be involved. "Over the last year central command has built a deployable command-and-control capability," Gen Franks said. "What that actually means is containers of communications gear, very large communications pipes that we're able to put in the back of an airplane, fly it a long ways, land it on the ground and then set up a command-and-control complex." The al-Udeid base, just outside Doha, is approximately 640km from the Iraqi border and has long been considered the most likely position from which US central command, which is in charge of all military forces in the region, might run an Iraqi campaign. Since March the US has moved communications and computer equipment to al-Udeid from nearby Saudi bases and has expanded the base to hold approximately 10,000 troops. Gen Franks said the Pentagon had not decided whether to make the deployable command post permanent. He would not speculate on whether keeping staff there was contingent on a decision to attack Iraq. "The purpose of it is command, control, communications, to be sure that we have the right bandwidth lined up, to be sure we can talk to our components," he said. "It's no more than that, it's no less. Does it give us increased capability? You bet." Although Qatar has no border with Iraq, the air base is expected to be a launching point for combat jets and support aircraft if an Iraq invasion were launched. During the Afghan campaign it served as a base for about 4,000 US troops but that figure is now down to approximately 2,000. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 05:47:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:47:37 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EjZ-0004Tx-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:47:37 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187EjM-0001RF-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:47:24 -0700 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187Eio-0001R6-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 05:46:50 -0700 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g9VCkbK08142 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:46:37 +0200 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g9VCkaA08076 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:46:36 +0200 Received: from mbs25304 ([195.148.80.141]) by exch.evtek.fi with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5329); Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:48:38 +0200 Message-ID: <01c301c280db$61c838a0$8d5094c3@mbs.fi> From: "Michael Keaney" To: X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 12:48:38.0796 (UTC) FILETIME=[D5808CC0:01C280DB] Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: support equal opportunities terrorism Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:45:24 +0200 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 14:45:24 +0200 Reasons to be cheerful about the war on terror By Max Boot Financial Times: October 31 2002 The news on the terrorism front seems pretty alarming. Just look at the recent headlines: 750 theatre-goers taken hostage in Moscow and more than 100 of them killed in a ham-fisted rescue operation. A nightclub blown up in Bali, killing at least 181 people; a French supertanker attacked off Yemen; US Marines shot in Kuwait; and a US diplomat killed in Jordan. But before you flee in panic to a cave somewhere, it is worth focusing on two pieces of good news that are not getting enough attention. First, these attacks have not been occurring in the US, arguably the terrorists' top target. Immediately after September 11 2001, many people had an image in their heads of America-as- Israel, plagued by non-stop bombings of restaurants, stores and buses. But the expected attacks have not materialised - at least not yet. Why not? It is impossible to know unless you have a hotline to Osama bin Laden, wherever he may be. One possibility is that al-Qaeda is small and incapable of carrying out serious terrorist acts in quick succession. So it may simply be a matter of time before al-Qaeda attacks the US again. But we should not ignore the strong likelihood that the Bush administration's vigorous response to terrorism, assisted by important allies such as Tony Blair, has made a big difference. After September 11, a lot of sophisticates opined that any war on terror that did not address "root causes" was doomed to failure. That may be true in the long run but, in the short term, going after symptoms rather than causes seems to have worked pretty well. It is true some al-Qaeda leaders and followers escaped Afghanistan but their base of operations was destroyed, prisoners were captured for interrogation and valuable intelligence was gathered. Combined with domestic law-enforcement, this has allowed the US government to snare reputed would-be terrorists - José Padilla and the Buffalo cell - before they could strike. Second, by attacking so many other countries, the Islamist terrorists make it easier for America to forge a coalition against them. France and Russia have self-serving reasons for withholding support for US action against Iraq. But in light of the recent events, how can Jacques Chirac and Vladimir Putin justify to their own voters putting narrow commercial interests above the global fight against terrorism and the states that sponsor it? The Islamist militants - who are increasingly allied with Saddam Hussein's secular regime in battling against their common enemies in the west - may have reserved their deadliest blow for the US. But they have made clear in recent months that they do not distinguish among infidels - Russians and French and Australians may be murdered if there are no convenient American or Israeli targets. The backlash has already set in. Until recently, the Indonesian government had ignored pleas from Washington to crack down on Jemaah Islamiah, its local radical Islamist group. But after the Bali bombing - which killed mainly foreigners but damaged Indonesia's economy - President Megawati Sukarnoputri has at last detained Jemaah Islamiah's suspected leader, Abu Bakar Bashir. Likewise, the government of Yemen, which has twice been embarrassed by terrorism incidents, is joining the anti-terror coalition. President Ali Abdallah Salih has dispatched troops trained by US special forces into the vast Empty Quarter, where their hunt for al-Qaeda suspects is assisted by American surveillance aircraft. The Australian government, which has been at the forefront of the anti-terror campaign all along, is not backing off after losing so many citizens in Bali. It is important to remember that terrorism is the weapon of the weak. It can flourish only if large states do relatively little to stop it. That was the case with Islamist violence directed against the US, from the hostage- taking in Tehran in 1979 to the attack on the USS Cole in 2000. After each incident, the US's response was largely symbolic and ineffectual. But after September 11 it got serious and, along with its allies, drained terror swamps in Afghanistan and beyond. It was especially important that western European countries that had tolerated Islamist operatives, including the Hamburg cell that planned the September 11 attack, at last decided enough was enough. Now, we can only hope that other states too will get serious in their war on terror. By indiscriminately targeting innocent people of so many nationalities, the terrorists may be sowing the seeds of their own destruction. The writer is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of American Power From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 06:58:44 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 06:58:44 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187Fq4-0005RB-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 06:58:24 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187Fpk-0001xR-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 06:58:04 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187FoR-0001ul-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 06:56:43 -0700 Received: from modem-1660.rhino.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.137.102.124] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 187FoM-0008Sz-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 13:56:39 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: "a-list" Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Importance: Normal Subject: [A-List] China, Russia and the Iraqi oil game Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 13:56:06 -0000 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 13:56:06 -0000 Asia Times October 31, 2002 By Pepe Escobar Eleven percent of the world´s reserves (second in the world after Saudi Arabia); 112 billion barrels of proven reserves; and at least 220 billion barrels of probable reserves. As Iraq is universally acknowledged to be the new promised land of oil, the name of the game in the industry is PSA. PSA stands for "production share agreement": Iran and Kuwait, for instance, don't approve PSAs, they flatly refuse to share sovereignty over their natural wealth. Iraq is another matter entirely. Because of the UN sanctions, and with its oil infrastructure in tatters, recent agreements approved by Saddam Hussein, with French conglomerate TotalFinaElf, for instance, had to be PSAs. But anyway, these are only agreements; TotalFinaElf boss Thierry Desmarest said not long ago that no contract had been formally signed yet. The war of positioning for a possible post-Saddam Iraqi environment is getting more ruthless by the minute. American oil conglomerates are openly courting representatives of the Iraqi National Congress (INC), the umbrella opposition. The darling of Exxon Mobil and Chevron Texaco is Ahmed Chalabi, US vice President Dick Cheney's pal and major contender for the title of Iraq's number one opposition figure. Chalabi, the INC leader, has already stressed on the record that he favors the creation of a "US-led consortium to develop Iraqi oil fields. American companies will have a big shot at Iraqi oil." To widespread doubts about how a pro-American post-Saddam government would respect contracts signed with non-American oil giants, the INC has reassured all players - mostly Russian and European - that the new post-Saddam administration will honor all its PSAs. The Future of Iraq Group, a State Department task force, officially is not talking about oil - which sounds like a joke. And there's also no official confirmation that oil has been a key issue in the current hardcore Security Council negotiations between the US and Britain, on one side, and France, Russia and China on the other. But it is obviously not by historical accident that oil companies from these five permanent Security Council members are all positioning themselves for the post-Saddam environment. People like former CIA supremo James Woolsey are not even disguising Washington's plan to turn Iraq into an American protectorate with an Arab Hamid Karzai al-la Afghanistan eager to open the oil taps for American oil giants. Woolsey had been openly saying that if France and Russia contributed to "regime change", their oil companies would be able to "work together" with the new regime and with American companies. Otherwise, they would be left contemplating passing cargoes in the Gulf. Iraqi oil is so attractive to anyone most of all because it's cheap. Industry sources in the Gulf and Singapore confirm the production cost of a barrel of oil in the Caspian sea is around US$8. The same thing in Iraq costs only 70 cents. So the new oil frontier in Central Asia for the moment is little more than a mirage. The same sources confirm that Iraq is currently producing around 1.5 million barrels a day. But its production capacity is supposedly between 3 million and 3.5 million: this is what Iraq produced when it was an oil giant, in 1979, before the Iran-Iraq war. Even without an American attack, two years and a lot of investment would be necessary to get back to this figure. And to double oil production, it would take five to six years, and extra billions of dollars. Not only the Americans, but also Royal Dutch Shell is back in the Iraqi game - after a charm offensive in 1998. British Petroleum (BP) is also lobbying - it was thrown out of Iraq in the early 1960s. To cover the growth of world consumption in the next few years, everybody has to look for new sources. ExxonMobil and Chevron Texaco, for instance, prospect mainly in America. BP works basically in the Gulf of Mexico, Alaska and the North Sea. Royal Dutch Shell is exposed to Africa - Nigeria and Angola - a continent considered "unstable". Russia is playing a very clever game. Moscow wants to be a very big player in the oil industry - and is betting that one day the US will badly need Russian oil. Some in Moscow dream of Russia as a major supplier for the US instead of Saudi Arabia. But others, more realistically, know that Russia can be an extremely trustworthy supplier to Western Europe. Russia is capable of producing more oil than Saudi Arabia. But its capacity to produce more is also more limited. Extraction and transport of Siberian oil to America can be extremely costly. That's one of the key reasons why Russia definitely does not want low world oil prices: it would render exploitation of Siberian oil much less appealing. With high oil prices, Russia has the best of both worlds: it develops its position as a big oil player and it pays most of its bills. China has been a major oil importer since 1993; the third-biggest oil consumer in the world, behind the US and Japan. In the 1990s, its oil consumption rose 6 percent while its domestic production decreased 2 percent. In 2001, Chinese imports were one-third (65 million tons) of the total (200 million tons) consumed. Reserves in northern China are practically extinct. New oil fields in Xinjiang are very hard to exploit. Two-thirds of China's oil imports are from the Middle East: the main suppliers are Iran, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen. In 2010, they could be responsible for 80 percent of China's needs. No wonder Beijing is so worried. Iraq contributes only 0.6 percent of Chinese oil imports - but its strategic importance is increasingly vital. China wants an immediate end to the UN embargo and sanctions. In 1997, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), along with China North Industries Corporation (Norinco), signed an agreement with Iraq for a 22-year-long exploitation of half the Al-Ahdab field. The Chinese were supposed to invest $1.3 billion. In 1998, CNPC kept negotiating for an agreement regarding the Halfayah field. But in the end - because of the sanctions - the Chinese were only able to conduct feasibility studies. China has been playing an extremely active role behind closed doors in the current negotiations on the text of the new Security Council resolution on Iraq and arms inspections. The dispute only apparently is between a US-led and a French-led text. UN sources confirm the Chinese align with the French position - even though President George W Bush has said that he had a "deal" after he met Chinese President Jiang Zemin in Texas at the weekend. China is positively against an American attack on Iraq: it fears subsequent sky-high oil prices or even the interruption of supplies. China is also setting up its own strategic oil reserve. Reserves for the moment would only last for a few days. US reserves are good for three months. Until 2010, the Chinese want to be in the same position. The heart of the matter for China is to be less dependent on Middle East oil. Middle East oil travels through the Malacca Straits - controlled de facto by the US. Chinese oil companies have been increasingly active in Kazakhstan. But now, with the American presence in Afghanistan, it's for the Chinese to make the next move: how to combat encirclement by America from the Eastern and Western fronts. Security Council members China, Russia and France will only follow Washington's plans for regime change if they are absolutely sure of a level playing field in a post-Saddam Iraqi oil industry. Meanwhile, a doomsday scenario is deeply bothering Bush-Cheney and the American oil army: attack against Iraq. Middle East in flames. $60 a barrel of oil. Game over. But hopes are high on a dream scenario. Saddam is out in no time. Negligible "collateral damage". Iraq starts pumping oceans of oil. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is knocked out. $10 a barrel of oil. Victory. This explains why Washington is going all the way - with or without UN resolution, weapons inspectors, whatever. To get to the oil, you need a vassal state. Ergo, Saddam's days are numbered. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Oct 31 07:50:21 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 07:50:21 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187GeK-0006OC-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 07:50:20 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187GdF-0002GG-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 07:49:14 -0700 Received: from blount.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.226]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187F4d-0001YZ-00 for ; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 06:09:23 -0700 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by blount.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 187F4b-0000ks-00; Thu, 31 Oct 2002 08:09:21 -0500 Message-ID: <00c101c280de$a9088c80$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_00BD_01C280B4.BD8B8060"; type="multipart/alternative" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Subject: [A-List] Racist INS Policy on Haitians Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 08:08:43 -0500 Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 08:08:43 -0500 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_00BD_01C280B4.BD8B8060 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00BE_01C280B4.BD94A820" ------=_NextPart_001_00BE_01C280B4.BD94A820 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable October 31, 2002 Renewed Calls for Revising Policy on Haitians By DANA CANEDY IAMI, Oct. 30 - The sudden appearance of more than 200 Haitians in the = waters off Miami on Tuesday has reignited a debate about the treatment = of Haitian refugees and posed yet another political headache for Gov. = Jeb Bush in the final days of his re-election bid. Local and national politicians from both parties called on Mr. Bush = today to implore his brother, President George W. Bush, to end what they = say is a discriminatory administration policy requiring indefinite = detention of Haitians seeking asylum. The rule does not apply to = refugees of any other nationality. Hundreds of demonstrators gathered outside the Immigration and = Naturalization Service office in Miami, demanding the release of the = detainees pending the disposition of their cases. At a campaign = appearance in Liberty City, a poor, black Miami neighborhood, Mr. Bush = was met by about 200 protesters and confronted by Representative Carrie = P. Meek, a prominent Miami Democrat, who demanded that he respond to the = Haitian refugee situation. "I came to ask you if you would call your brother and ask him to call = I.N.S. to release the Haitians that are in detention," Ms. Meek said. Mr. Bush said he had spoken with his brother, but gave no assurances = about the release of the Haitians, who scrambled from a boat on Tuesday = afternoon onto a causeway linking Key Biscayne and Miami. As immigration officials continued to process the refugees today, six = Haitians from the boat were arrested on charges of smuggling the others = for profit. Law enforcement officials were also investigating how the = boat had made it so close to shore undetected. In its defense, the Coast Guard here said that it did not have the = resources to catch every smuggling boat in South Florida. "We have 95,000 miles of coastline, and we can't be everywhere all at = once," said Petty Officer Anastasia Burns, a spokeswoman. "We do try our = best with the resources and personnel that we have." In an affidavit submitted in Federal District Court in Miami, = immigration officials contend that, based on interviews with the Haitian = detainees, planning for the trip began in December 2001, and that the = refugees paid smugglers to prepare the freighter for the voyage and for = spots on the boat. The trip originated on Oct. 24 from Shu Shu Bay in = Haiti with more than 200 men, women and children aboard, according to = the affidavit. The issue came at a delicate time for Governor Bush. With less than a = week before Election Day, the matter could help to galvanize black = voters in South Florida, whom the Democratic challenger, Bill McBride, = needs if he is to pull off an upset in the surprisingly close race. Mr. McBride sent a letter to President Bush today urging him to issue an = executive order releasing the Haitians and allowing them to seek = immediate asylum hearings. The Bush campaign dismissed the letter as an opportunistic political = move. The Haitians were taken into custody after their boat ran aground about = 3 p.m. in the shallow waters off the Rickenbacker Causeway. The refugees = plunged into the water and bolted for a bridge and a highway, trying to = escape the Coast Guard and the police. Most were caught within hours, = although a few might have escaped, the Miami police said. As the scene unfolded on Tuesday, immigration advocates, lawmakers and = Haitian-Americans here began to mobilize and to call for the governor = and president to change the policy related to Haitian detainees. The = calls intensified today. Under a Bush administration policy that does not apply to refugees of = any other nationality, Haitians seeking political asylum are held in = detention centers pending the dispositions of their cases. All others = are deported to Haiti. Civil rights advocates and a growing number of lawmakers from both = parties say the policy is discriminatory in part because a separate law = allows Cubans who reach the United States shore to remain in the country = and to apply for permanent residency in a year. "Every other nationality has been released when they clear the = credible-fear-of-persecution hurdle," said State Representative Phillip = Brutus of North Miami, a Democrat who is the first Haitian-American = elected to the State Legislature. "We're saying once Haitians hit land = they are entitled to the same due process." Mr. Bush's office issued a statement saying he was generally concerned = about the issue of immigration enforcement and the safety of refugees = who set out on dangerous journeys to reach Florida.=20 "I have spoken to White House officials this evening regarding the = status of the Haitians who arrived today in Miami," Governor Bush said = in the statement. "I have been assured that these individuals will = receive fair and decent treatment by federal authorities." Mr. Bush's campaign office referred questions about Haitian immigration = policy to the governor's office. Representatives there did not return = calls seeking comment. Some state and national lawmakers said that the governor was doing too = little to address the issue and that the president must take action = immediately.=20 "I call upon the president and those responsible to him to end this = gross discrimination and mistreatment of Haitians, and to offer them the = humane consideration that the United States of America extends to = refugees from any other country," said Senator Bob Graham, Democrat of = Florida. Representatives Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Republicans = who are Cuban-Americans, said they supported the Haitian detainees. "An impressive amount of refugees on a wooden boat, risking their lives = at sea, is indicative of the despair they face at home," the two = lawmakers said in a joint statement. "The rule of law must be followed, = and these Haitians must be afforded all procedural rights, in order to = ensure that they are not summarily deported." Outside the immigration agency's Miami headquarters, average citizens = made their voices heard today. One protester, Courtney Bell, a = 16-year-old white high school student from Miami, said she attended the = rally because "I don't think freedom should be based on ethnicity." Another protester, Runny Salomon, 19, whose mother is Haitian, said she = joined the protest "to show my support and to show I understand the = struggle they're going through."=20 ------=_NextPart_001_00BE_01C280B4.BD94A820 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

October 31, 2002

Renewed Calls for Revising Policy on=20 Haitians

By DANA = CANEDY

3DMIAMI,=20 Oct. 30 — The sudden appearance of more than 200 Haitians in the = waters off=20 Miami on Tuesday has reignited a debate about the treatment of Haitian = refugees=20 and posed yet another political headache for Gov. Jeb Bush in the final = days of=20 his re-election bid.

Local and national politicians from both parties = called on Mr.=20 Bush today to implore his brother, President George W. Bush, to end what = they=20 say is a discriminatory administration policy requiring indefinite = detention of=20 Haitians seeking asylum. The rule does not apply to refugees of any = other=20 nationality.

Hundreds of demonstrators gathered outside the = Immigration and=20 Naturalization Service office in Miami, demanding the release of the = detainees=20 pending the disposition of their cases. At a campaign appearance in = Liberty=20 City, a poor, black Miami neighborhood, Mr. Bush was met by about 200 = protesters=20 and confronted by Representative Carrie P. Meek, a prominent Miami = Democrat, who=20 demanded that he respond to the Haitian refugee situation.

"I came to ask you if you would call your brother and = ask him to=20 call I.N.S. to release the Haitians that are in detention," Ms. Meek=20 said.

Mr. Bush said he had spoken with his brother, but gave = no=20 assurances about the release of the Haitians, who scrambled from a boat = on=20 Tuesday afternoon onto a causeway linking Key Biscayne and = Miami.

As immigration officials continued to process the = refugees=20 today, six Haitians from the boat were arrested on charges of smuggling = the=20 others for profit. Law enforcement officials were also investigating how = the=20 boat had made it so close to shore undetected.

In its defense, the Coast Guard here said that it did = not have=20 the resources to catch every smuggling boat in South Florida.

"We have 95,000 miles of coastline, and we can't be = everywhere=20 all at once," said Petty Officer Anastasia Burns, a spokeswoman. "We do = try our=20 best with the resources and personnel that we have."

In an affidavit submitted in Federal District Court in = Miami,=20 immigration officials contend that, based on interviews with the Haitian = detainees, planning for the trip began in December 2001, and that the = refugees=20 paid smugglers to prepare the freighter for the voyage and for spots on = the=20 boat. The trip originated on Oct. 24 from Shu Shu Bay in Haiti with more = than=20 200 men, women and children aboard, according to the = affidavit.

The issue came at a delicate time for Governor Bush. = With less=20 than a week before Election Day, the matter could help to galvanize = black voters=20 in South Florida, whom the Democratic challenger, Bill McBride, needs if = he is=20 to pull off an upset in the surprisingly close race.

Mr. McBride sent a letter to President Bush today = urging him to=20 issue an executive order releasing the Haitians and allowing them to = seek=20 immediate asylum hearings.

The Bush campaign dismissed the letter as an = opportunistic=20 political move.

The Haitians were taken into custody after their boat = ran=20 aground about 3 p.m. in the shallow waters off the Rickenbacker = Causeway. The=20 refugees plunged into the water and bolted for a bridge and a highway, = trying to=20 escape the Coast Guard and the police. Most were caught within hours, = although a=20 few might have escaped, the Miami police said.

As the scene unfolded on Tuesday, immigration = advocates,=20 lawmakers and Haitian-Americans here began to mobilize and to call for = the=20 governor and president to change the policy related to Haitian = detainees. The=20 calls intensified today.

Under a Bush administration policy that does not apply = to=20 refugees of any other nationality, Haitians seeking political asylum are = held in=20 detention centers pending the dispositions of their cases. All others = are=20 deported to Haiti.

Civil rights advocates and a growing number of = lawmakers from=20 both parties say the policy is discriminatory in part because a separate = law=20 allows Cubans who reach the United States shore to remain in the country = and to=20 apply for permanent residency in a year.

"Every other nationality has been released when they = clear the=20 credible-fear-of-persecution hurdle," said State Representative Phillip = Brutus=20 of North Miami, a Democrat who is the first Haitian-American elected to = the=20 State Legislature. "We're saying once Haitians hit land they are = entitled to the=20 same due process."

Mr. Bush's office issued a statement saying he was = generally=20 concerned about the issue of immigration enforcement and the safety of = refugees=20 who set out on dangerous journeys to reach Florida.

"I have spoken to White House officials this evening = regarding=20 the status of the Haitians who arrived today in Miami," Governor Bush = said in=20 the statement. "I have been assured that these individuals will receive = fair and=20 decent treatment by federal authorities."

Mr. Bush's campaign office referred questions about = Haitian=20 immigration policy to the governor's office. Representatives there did = not=20 return calls seeking comment.

Some state and national lawmakers said that the = governor was=20 doing too little to address the issue and that the president must take = action=20 immediately.

"I call upon the president and those responsible to = him to end=20 this gross discrimination and mistreatment of Haitians, and to offer = them the=20 humane consideration that the United States of America extends to = refugees from=20 any other country," said Senator Bob Graham, Democrat of = Florida.

Representatives Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Ileana = Ros-Lehtinen,=20 Republicans who are Cuban-Americans, said they supported the Haitian=20 detainees.

"An impressive amount of refugees on a wooden boat, = risking=20 their lives at sea, is indicative of the despair they face at home," the = two=20 lawmakers said in a joint statement. "The rule of law must be followed, = and=20 these Haitians must be afforded all procedural rights, in order to = ensure that=20 they are not summarily deported."

Outside the immigration agency's Miami headquarters, = average=20 citizens made their voices heard today. One protester, Courtney Bell, a=20 16-year-old white high school student from Miami, said she attended the = rally=20 because "I don't think freedom should be based on ethnicity."

Another protester, Runny Salomon, 19, whose mother is = Haitian,=20 said she joined the protest "to show my support and to show I understand = the=20 struggle they're going through." =


------=_NextPart_001_00BE_01C280B4.BD94A820-- ------=_NextPart_000_00BD_01C280B4.BD8B8060 Content-Type: image/gif; name="m.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-Location: http://graphics7.nytimes.com/images/dropcap/m.gif R0lGODlhJQAhAMQAAP/////v7/fe3u/Ozu+9veetrd6cnN6MjNaEhM5zc85jY8ZSUr1CQr0xMbUh Ia0QEK0AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACH5BAEA AAAALAAAAAAlACEAQAX/ICGO5BgAaIoOZUsMACTPdF2oTq3PTawTgJyOoVMAEDtIbwdEKZIyQwq5 W/5UAINOgKXqrNAZDEsMy8A0QvIACAy9NfSsWQ4jUHCaXNbEJ29TSXs7RlgAA2YyDD6JiyoFiYqM ejsOKQdfSYtMmDsATzUDeTObV5CRJ6OSTCtmD4E7pTV9boIqqhCyaVgPOgtdmpNQUoZBjcJJr4ad ZrphbCq1x5EyJymg09SFh9S5yBAJSVwAdTPhsd8E5TO/WjUH50PpiEy9NJa4znyf1FLxNfogAJEW pseRYKwAMIPS5B+NgH3sJfnlB13CLGHGAXBIKp2KBkkS3EJ4JQU9HcAsCpZMsUAHNFjyQgAAOw== ------=_NextPart_000_00BD_01C280B4.BD8B8060-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Nov 01 06:47:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 01 Nov 2002 06:47:33 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187c95-0004vj-00 for ; Fri, 01 Nov 2002 06:47:31 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187c8i-00016W-00; Fri, 01 Nov 2002 06:47:08 -0700 Received: from blount.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.226]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187byJ-0000zS-00 for ; Fri, 01 Nov 2002 06:36:23 -0700 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by blount.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 187byB-0000NP-00; Fri, 01 Nov 2002 08:36:15 -0500 Message-ID: <014c01c281ab$8bf6e740$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0149_01C28181.9EA3E2A0" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Subject: [A-List] Brit anti-war civil disobdience Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 1 Nov 2002 08:35:22 -0500 Date: Fri, 1 Nov 2002 08:35:22 -0500 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0149_01C28181.9EA3E2A0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Published on Thursday, October 31, 2002 by the Guardian/UK =20 Anti-War Protesters Plan Day of Civil Disobedience =20 by Matthew Tempest=20 =20 Thousands of people were today expected to take part in a series = of demonstrations up and down Britain to protest against military action = on Iraq.=20 The Stop the War umbrella group was hoping for "the largest = protest of direct action and disobedience there has been in Britain for = decades", with mini-protests, sit-downs and occupations "from Beccles to = Bournemouth, Canterbury to Aberdeen".=20 The spark for today's day of action came from comments made by = Tony Benn last summer.=20 In a departure from his normal aversion to civil disobedience as a = form of protest, the former Labour cabinet minister said: "Non-violent = resistance to the government will show they cannot do this in our name. = We should stop the buses, stop the trains, stop the schools."=20 Following last month's Stop the War march in London, attended by = up to 400,000 protesters, the group has called on supporters to organize = their own local acts of civil disobedience. It advocates three forms of = protest:=20 =B7 Meetings in or near the workplace with anti-war speakers, = perhaps with a local march=20 .: College occupations and teach-ins=20 =B7 Evening protests in town centers, where demonstrators are = urged by Stop the War to sit down and block traffic.=20 In London, protesters will rally at Parliament Square, as MPs = leave the Commons for their constituencies at the end of the = parliamentary working week.=20 Stop the War has called for all protests to be peaceful and urged = demonstrators to bring banners, whistles, drums and candles.=20 London 11am: Occupation of Goldsmiths college Occupation of the School of Oriental and African Studies=20 12pm: Kings College Strand site Stop the War meeting 12.30pm: Protest outside Camberwell Art College followed by march into = Peckham to join council workers protest Southgate College (Enfield) StW meeting 1pm Kings College (Guys site) StW rally in central square Elephant & Castle roundabout, students from Southbank and London = College of Printing converge LSE Student Union meeting - vote on occupation Wimbledon Art College StW meeting Queen Mary University student union meeting - vote on occupation Middlesex University, Tottenham campus, StW conga starts Greenwich University StW meeting University of North London - protest outside Tower building Westminster University StW meeting Paul Foot, campaigner and journalist, holds public meeting at the = Stephen Lacey gallery, Crawford Passage, EC1 2pm LSE occupation begins 4pm Rally in main square at UCL, followed by march down to LSE 5pm All London students assemble at LSE for march down Embankment to = parliament Not all the capital's events are student-initiated. In Brixton = there is a rally at noon outside the town hall, followed by a march and = possible attempt to stop traffic outside the Ritzy cinema at 5pm. There = are similar rallies in Wandsworth and Peckham, Dulwich and Croydon and = the East End.=20 Other major cities =B7 Manchester: Don't Attack Iraq Protest, All Saints Park, Oxford = Road 6pm=20 =B7 Nottingham: "day of general mayhem", Market Square, 5pm = onwards=20 =B7 Plymouth: march, rally and vigil, Pier Approach 5.30pm =B7 Sheffield: mass rally, followed by other action at 6pm, Town = Hall steps - from 4.30pm=20 =B7 Leeds: Pedal for Peace, Briggate city Centre, 3pm=20 =B7 Birmingham: mass die in - and fall over, Waterstones bookshop, = New Street 5pm =B7 Liverpool: protest and non-violent disobedience, St George's = Plateau (opposite Lime Street station), 6pm=20 =B7 Newcastle: march through city, Monument 6pm=20 =B7 Middlesbrough: "noisy vigil", Forces Recruitment Office, = Borough Road 6pm=20 =B7 Bournemouth rally: speakers & candlelit vigil at the war = memorial in the middle gardens 6pm=20 =A9 Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002 =20 ------=_NextPart_000_0149_01C28181.9EA3E2A0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Published on Thursday, = October=20 31, 2002 by the Guardian/UK =
Anti-War Protesters Plan Day = of=20 Civil Disobedience
by Matthew Tempest
 

Thousands of people were today expected to take part in a = series of=20 demonstrations up and down Britain to protest against military = action on=20 Iraq.=20

The Stop = the War=20 umbrella group was hoping for "the largest protest of direct = action and=20 disobedience there has been in Britain for decades", with = mini-protests,=20 sit-downs and occupations "from Beccles to Bournemouth, Canterbury = to=20 Aberdeen".=20

The spark for today's day of action came from comments made by = Tony=20 Benn last summer.=20

In a departure from his normal aversion to civil disobedience = as a form=20 of protest, the former Labour cabinet minister said: "Non-violent=20 resistance to the government will show they cannot do this in our = name. We=20 should stop the buses, stop the trains, stop the schools."=20

Following last month's Stop the War march in London, attended = by up to=20 400,000 protesters, the group has called on supporters to organize = their=20 own local acts of civil disobedience. It advocates three forms of = protest:=20

=B7 Meetings in or near the workplace with anti-war = speakers,=20 perhaps with a local march
•: College occupations and = teach-ins=20
=B7 Evening protests in town centers, where = demonstrators are=20 urged by Stop the War to sit down and block traffic.=20

In London, protesters will rally at Parliament Square, as MPs = leave the=20 Commons for their constituencies at the end of the parliamentary = working=20 week.=20

Stop the War has called for all protests to be peaceful and = urged=20 demonstrators to bring banners, whistles, drums and candles.=20

London
11am:
Occupation of Goldsmiths=20 college
Occupation of the School of Oriental and African = Studies=20
12pm:
Kings College Strand site Stop the War = meeting

12.30pm:
Protest outside Camberwell Art College = followed by=20 march into Peckham to join council workers protest
Southgate = College=20 (Enfield) StW meeting

1pm
Kings College (Guys site) StW rally in central=20 square
Elephant & Castle roundabout, students from = Southbank and=20 London College of Printing converge
LSE Student Union meeting - = vote on=20 occupation
Wimbledon Art College StW meeting
Queen Mary = University=20 student union meeting - vote on occupation
Middlesex = University,=20 Tottenham campus, StW conga starts
Greenwich University StW=20 meeting
University of North London - protest outside Tower=20 building
Westminster University StW meeting
Paul Foot, = campaigner=20 and journalist, holds public meeting at the Stephen Lacey gallery, = Crawford Passage, EC1

2pm
LSE occupation begins

4pm
Rally in main square at UCL, followed by march = down to=20 LSE

5pm
All London students assemble at LSE for march = down=20 Embankment to parliament

Not all the capital's events are student-initiated. In Brixton = there is=20 a rally at noon outside the town hall, followed by a march and = possible=20 attempt to stop traffic outside the Ritzy cinema at 5pm. There are = similar=20 rallies in Wandsworth and Peckham, Dulwich and Croydon and the = East End.=20

Other major cities

=B7 Manchester: Don't Attack Iraq Protest, All Saints = Park, Oxford=20 Road 6pm
=B7 Nottingham: "day of general mayhem", = Market Square,=20 5pm onwards
=B7 Plymouth: march, rally and vigil, Pier = Approach=20 5.30pm
=B7 Sheffield: mass rally, followed by other = action at 6pm,=20 Town Hall steps - from 4.30pm
=B7 Leeds: Pedal for = Peace,=20 Briggate city Centre, 3pm
=B7 Birmingham: mass die in - = and fall=20 over, Waterstones bookshop, New Street 5pm
=B7 = Liverpool: protest=20 and non-violent disobedience, St George's Plateau (opposite Lime = Street=20 station), 6pm
=B7 Newcastle: march through city, = Monument 6pm=20
=B7 Middlesbrough: "noisy vigil", Forces Recruitment = Office,=20 Borough Road 6pm
=B7 Bournemouth rally: speakers & = candlelit=20 vigil at the war memorial in the middle gardens 6pm=20

=A9 Guardian Newspapers Limited=20 2002

 ------=_NextPart_000_0149_01C28181.9EA3E2A0-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Nov 01 23:31:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 01 Nov 2002 23:31:38 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187roo-00022z-00 for ; Fri, 01 Nov 2002 23:31:38 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187roI-0000zQ-00; Fri, 01 Nov 2002 23:31:06 -0700 Received: from tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.168.141]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187rnc-0000z1-00 for ; Fri, 01 Nov 2002 23:30:24 -0700 Received: from modem-2472.snake.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.137.121.168] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 187rnZ-00069x-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 02 Nov 2002 06:30:22 +0000 From: "Mark Jones" To: "a-list" Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Importance: Normal Subject: [A-List] Roach on Asia Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 2 Nov 2002 06:29:50 -0000 Date: Sat, 2 Nov 2002 06:29:50 -0000 -----Original Message----- From: owner-pen-l@galaxy.csuchico.edu [mailto:owner-pen-l@galaxy.csuchico.edu]On Behalf Of Ian Murray Sent: 01 November 2002 17:56 To: pen-l Subject: [PEN-L:31753] Roach on Asia Global: Asia Is Now a Zero-Sum Game Stephen Roach (from Shanghai) Apart from China, there is no dynamism in Asia these days. At the end of a two-week Asian tour, I am struck by a grim sense of foreboding that is evident throughout this once vibrant region. While the growth story in China is alive and well, economies elsewhere in the region are sputtering, at best. As America slows, a US-centric global economy is in desperate need of a new growth engine. That engine is not to be found in Asia. The year 2002 has turned out to be an important stress test for a US-centric global economy. A sputtering American growth dynamic has taken a surprisingly heavy toll on the rest of the world. The reverberations have been especially acute in two key regions of the world -- Europe and Asia. Not only has the engineless global growth dynamic unmasked serious structural flaws in Euroland, but it has also revealed serious deficiencies in Asia's externally led growth model. As I have traveled extensively throughout the region over these past two weeks, the only question that seems to matter is the prognosis for the US economy. Needless to say, my answer does not exactly provide for a very uplifting discussion. It's always risky to generalize about a region so diverse as Asia. There are really three distinct stories to tell in Asia these days -- Japan, China, and the rest of the region. After all these years, I continue to be amazed at how Japan still has the potential to disappoint. And yet that's exactly what has happened to the latest reform effort. During my visit to Tokyo 10 days ago, you could literally feel a sense of movement in the air. The Takenaka effort at bank reform, in the aftermath of the Bank of Japan's radical purchase of equities, spoke of a new potential to break a dozen years of inertia. And I fell for it. But the leadership of the ruling LDP party demonstrated once again what makes Japan's case for reform so hopeless. Yet another effort at cleaning up the banking system was quashed by the power structure. The moral hazard of Japan's "convoy system" emerges once again very much intact -- banks remain too big to fail, as do their zombie-like corporate borrowers. Meanwhile, the Japanese economy has taken yet another turn for the worse, as evidenced by recent disappointing trends in industrial production, inventories, employment, and personal consumption. It's déjà vu all over again. Sadly, Japan just doesn't seem as if it will ever get up off the mat again. Nor is the rest of Asia (excluding China) standing on its own and resisting the pressures of a tough global climate. Korea -- where hope for vigor was highest in the first half of this year -- has suddenly slowed. Industrial output growth screeched to a near halt in September, and private consumption growth has slowed markedly; even Korean export growth has slipped from the heady gains recorded earlier this year. In Taiwan, the recent US port strike appears to have prompted some August-September gyrations; however, looking through the noise, rising unemployment and likely fourth quarter moderation in output and export growth all point to a decided deceleration of the Taiwanese economy well into 2003. Meanwhile, manufacturing output growth has slowed appreciably in Singapore and Thailand, whereas Hong Kong remains trapped by the twin forces of deflation and rising unemployment. Lacking in domestic demand, the smaller economies of Asia have little to show for themselves in the face of a US-led slowdown in external demand. And then there's China -- an entirely different story. In contrast to the near synchronous slowing elsewhere in Asia, the Chinese economy is on an accelerating growth path. All of the September numbers were sending unambiguous signals of a quickening of economic activity. That's true of industrial output, exports, infrastructure spending, and foreign direct investment. It's also true of an equally impressive acceleration in GDP growth to an 8.1% YoY rate in 3Q02 (see my October 17 dispatch, "The China Factor"). China continues to be the fastest-growing economy in Asia, or for that matter, the world. And that's true irrespective of the slowdown in the broader global economy. The math of China's growth contribution underscores the key role this country is playing in driving Asian and global growth. At current exchange rates, China accounts for only about 4% of world GDP. On a purchasing power parity basis, however, that share leaps to 12%. In my view, the PPP-based construct -- which gets away from currency-induced distortions to a nation's growth contribution -- provides a more accurate assessment of China's role in the global economy. That's especially the case, if you believe, as I do, that China's currency is significantly undervalued. On a PPP basis, China is already the growth engine of Asia. While it has a share of fully 37% in pan-Asian output (including Japan, the newly industrialized Asian economies, and developing Asia), according to our estimates, it accounted for more than 65% of pan-Asian growth in 2001-02. With GDP growth holding in the 7-8% range, China's resilience stands in sharp contrast with decelerating trends elsewhere in Asia. And I guess that' s precisely the point. Lacking in autonomous sources of domestic demand, the Asian growth dynamic is now all about supply. And China increasingly has the scale and the scope in its production platform -- to say nothing of the cost advantage -- to win the market-share battle in the region hands down. China' s pan-Asian dominance becomes all the more apparent in the context of a global slowdown. For externally led economies, a slackening of foreign demand refocuses the growth dynamic. In the first half of 2002, all of Asia rode the tailwinds of a US-led inventory cycle. As that temporary impetus ran its course, only China has been able to hold its own. Increasingly, it's a zero-sum game in Asia. China is now separating itself from the pack. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Nov 02 02:08:27 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 02 Nov 2002 02:08:27 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187uGZ-0002fI-00 for ; Sat, 02 Nov 2002 02:08:27 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187uGB-0001ss-00; Sat, 02 Nov 2002 02:08:03 -0700 Received: from mta6.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.240]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 187uFW-0001sQ-00 for ; Sat, 02 Nov 2002 02:07:22 -0700 Received: from sabri ([66.124.233.210]) by mta6.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H4X00MNVYO897@mta6.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 02 Nov 2002 01:07:21 -0800 (PST) From: Sabri Oncu To: ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Bush Favors Iraqi Disarmament to War Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 02 Nov 2002 01:06:42 -0800 Date: Sat, 02 Nov 2002 01:06:42 -0800 Top World News 11/01 19:45 Bush Favors Iraqi Disarmament to War, UN's Blix Says (Update2) By Bill Varner United Nations, Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Hans Blix, the chief United Nations arms inspector, told Security Council members he is convinced that U.S. President George W. Bush will seek the peaceful disarmament of Iraq before taking military action. "The United States would much prefer to have a peaceful process in which the result will be confidence that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction," Blix, who spoke Wednesday with Bush, said after meeting with the council's 10 elected members. Blix's comments came amid signs the U.S. is close to an agreement that would end seven weeks of debate on a resolution setting terms for inspections. A vote on a revised U.S. text, reflecting concerns Blix raised in Washington, is expected next week, diplomats said. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said the five permanent members of the Security Council -- China, France, Russia, the U.S. and U.K. -- are nearing an accord, an assessment shared by the U.S. State Department. The council members have "managed to move closer on several positions," Ivanov said in Moscow, in an interview in Russian posted on the Foreign Ministry Web site. "At the same time there remain serious differences." He cited possible consequences should Iraq breach UN resolutions, including the use of force. U.S.-Led Coalition Bush, who has voiced impatience with the UN deliberations, reiterated during campaign stops in two states today that the U.S. would act with or without the world body's approval. "If the United Nations will not act, if Saddam Hussein will not disarm, in the name of peace and in the name of freedom, the United States of America will lead a coalition to disarm him," Bush told an audience in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, where he was stumping for Republican candidates in Tuesday's election. Syria, which has said it would not accept any new resolution, is ready to consider the U.S. proposal on inspections, Deputy Ambassador Fayssal Mekdad said. "We are a practical people," Mekdad said. "If the Security Council is moving toward a resolution we cannot say we don't want to discuss it." Mekdad said Blix asked the council diplomats to trust him to implement the resolution in a way that would not spark a war. We Trust Him "We trust him, we have great respect for him, but the issue is what we are going to have in the draft," Mekhad said. "What he did in the meeting was to make it clearer to us the meaning of certain phrases and sentences in the resolution." France, which along with Russia, is concerned that Bush is seeking a "hidden trigger" from the UN that would automatically authorize an attack on Iraq, has also expressed confidence in Blix. Ginette de Matha, a spokeswoman for France's mission to the UN, said last week her government would accept any UN resolution's inspection terms if Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, agreed to them. Blix said the U.S. "has made various modifications" and would make others before circulating a new version next week. U.S. Concession The U.S. has agreed to give Iraq 50 days after the adoption of the resolution to provide a report on its civilian industry for producing biological and chemical agents that could be used for making weapons, a UN diplomat familiar with the negotiations told reporters. The U.S. initially demanded a report from Iraq of all elements of its biological and chemical industry and programs that produce related weapons of mass destruction 30 days after Security Council action. That's a concession to Blix, who told the Security Council on Monday that he's concerned that Iraq wouldn't be able to meet the 30-day deadline on elements of its civilian programs. Blix also told the council that a U.S. call for a seven-day deadline for Iraqi acceptance of the resolution is unnecessary and would delay the start of inspections. Blix said there are practical problems with taking Iraqi scientists and their families outside the country for interviews, as the U.S. is demanding, and that a provision calling for the ``most qualified and experienced'' inspectors would put too many U.S. and British specialists on the team. Serious Consequences The U.S. and France are negotiating the language of the text that would threaten ``serious consequences,'' including military force, in the event Iraq doesn't comply with the inspections. Concern that the U.S. would use that phrase to take military action against Iraq without further council action is the biggest remaining barrier to an agreement, diplomats said. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday spoke by telephone with Ivanov, amid signs Russia and France were softening their opposition to the U.S.'s referring to Iraq's "material breach" of UN mandates. The Bush administration's top arms control official reiterated the U.S. belief that Iraq possesses chemical and biological weapons and could produce a nuclear weapon within a year if it obtained the necessary materials. In addition, the U.S. has "established that Iraq has permitted al-Qaeda to operate within its territory," the official, John Bolton, undersecretary of State for arms control, said of the terrorist network blamed for the Sept. 11 attacks in the U.S. and other incidents. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Nov 02 20:48:25 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 02 Nov 2002 20:48:25 -0700 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 188BkP-00037p-00 for ; Sat, 02 Nov 2002 20:48:25 -0700 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 188Bk5-0001R6-00; Sat, 02 Nov 2002 20:48:05 -0700 Received: from mta7.pltn13.pbi.net ([64.164.98.8]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 188Bj6-0001QX-00 for ; Sat, 02 Nov 2002 20:47:04 -0700 Received: from sabri ([66.124.233.210]) by mta7.pltn13.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H4Z00KZOEIEB1@mta7.pltn13.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 02 Nov 2002 19:47:04 -0800 (PST) From: Sabri Oncu To: Marxmail , PEN-L , ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Reuters: Kurdish Party Challenges Turkish Polls Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 02 Nov 2002 19:46:24 -0800 Date: Sat, 02 Nov 2002 19:46:24 -0800 True. DEHAP is mainly a Kurdish Party but it is not just a Kurdish Party. Many Turkish leftists joined forces with the Kurdish party HADEP to form DEHAP, although HADEP is by far the largest component of it. Let us see what tomorrow's election will bring us. Best, Sabri +++++++++ Kurdish Party Challenges Turkish Polls Fri Nov 1,11:04 AM ET By Ayla Jean Yackley HAZRO, Turkey (Reuters) - The fragile peace that has fallen on Turkey's war-scarred and poverty-stricken southeast has brought neither jobs, new industry nor a return to the former pastoral way of life. Many here instead count the peace dividend in a new sense of freedom to cast their votes for the pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party, or DEHAP, in Sunday's general election. "We can easily support DEHAP now. This time we do not have to fear what our votes will cost us," said Murat Celik, a 25-year-old shopkeeper waving a yellow DEHAP flag at a campaign rally in Hazro, a small, dusty town squeezed in a narrow valley between rocky cliffs in Diyarbakir province. When residents last went to the ballot box three years ago, battles between the Turkish army and Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) separatists still raged in the surrounding mountains. Voters felt intimidated, Celik said, warned by soldiers against backing DEHAP's predecessor HADEP, accused by the authorities of acting as a front for the PKK. "But this year the Kurdish identity is out in the open," said Celik as women dressed in traditional costume danced in large circles to the music of shrill pipes and drums. More than 30,000 people, most of them Kurds, died in nearly two decades of fighting, but the violence has waned since the capture of PKK commander Abdullah Ocalan in 1999. Emergency rule, in place in much of the southeast since 1987, expires in the last provinces at the end of November. Turkey has in recent months liberalized strict bans on the use of the Kurdish language in broadcasting and education and abolished the death penalty, hoping the steps will win it entry talks with the European Union (news - web sites). "We have emerged from those chaotic years, and the political atmosphere is kinder, gentler," said Osman Baydemir, a DEHAP candidate for parliament from Diyarbakir, the regional capital of the predominately Kurdish southeast. "We are able to visit the towns and villages where we were previously barred, we are allowed to hold large meetings. This has caused a huge explosion in our support." STORMY PAST Polls show the left-wing DEHAP on the cusp of a 10 percent threshold of the national vote which parties must clear to enter parliament. The prospect of a party in parliament with its roots in Kurdish nationalism has shocked the political establishment. Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, whose own party falls far short of the threshold, says a DEHAP victory would pose "serious problems for the regime." HADEP quit the election in September, fearing it would be outlawed before the vote in a case pending before the Constitutional Court. It was charged in 1999 with maintaining ties with the PKK. The electoral board in September barred DEHAP leaders Murat Bozlak and Akin Birdal from standing in the election because both men have served prison sentences for speeches they made in the 1990s. The party itself escaped a ban in October after the electoral board rejected the chief prosecutor's charges that DEHAP had failed to meet technical criteria to contest the race. Human Rights Watch said in a report this week that these incidents had cast a cloud over the election. Kurdish parliamentarians have had a stormy history in Turkish politics. Four former MPs have been behind bars since 1994 serving 15-year jail sentences after their party was outlawed. The defiant tone they set, including a refusal to take an oath of allegiance to the republic, has been tempered. "DEHAP has had an effective role in softening the environment by making the appropriate arguments," said Baydemir. "People no longer see DEHAP as an enemy movement that under no circumstances would they vote for. We are no longer the party that attracts the greatest opposition," he says. A central plank of DEHAP's campaign is speeding up civil rights reforms needed if Turkey is to go forward its bid to join the European Union. It also promises to ease measures imposed by an unpopular multi-billion International Monetary Fund bail-out after a recession which has cost hundreds of thousands of jobs. "The compass has shifted, people see the process of change as inescapable," said DEHAP candidate Mahmut Sakar. "Those who want democracy and a future in the EU don't just speak Kurdish." Despite winning outright majorities in much of the southeast, HADEP attracted just 4.8 percent of the national vote in 1999. "What will make or break the day for DEHAP in this election is whether they convince non-Kurdish voters they are legitimate and good for Turkish democracy," said one western diplomat. TURKEY'S "STEPCHILDREN" "Everyone knows DEHAP will win in the southeast," said a local official of a center-right party. "The race is for second place. DEHAP won't pass the barrier and we'll be elected." DEHAP, ironically, could by its success or failure determine the nature of the government in Ankara. If DEHAP fails to clear the hurdle, its votes will be discarded. Parliamentary seats in the region will then be distributed among parties able to enter the assembly. If it makes it, the front-running Justice and Development Party (AKP), second-placed in the region as a whole, would suffer the biggest losses. The prospect of failing the barrier embitters many. "That amounts to stealing our votes. How can we call this a democracy if no one represents us in parliament and the Kurdish problem remains unsolved?" said Orhan Toptas at a teahouse outside of the bustling DEHAP office in Haroz. "The state does not take responsibility for us. They treat us like stepchildren. Life is insufferable here." Gendarme officers flank the winding road that leads to sun-baked Hazro. A 14th century mosque atop a ridge dominates the town of 8,000 people who live in old stone houses. Livelihoods scratched out from farming and animal husbandry have been devastated by the separatist conflict. Per capita income in the province is a quarter of the more prosperous west. Unemployment tops 70 percent. "The war is over, but we are left with the ruins, with the poverty," said 65-year-old Serif Cakmak. "Rebuilding this region may be too large a task for any party, only God knows. But DEHAP is the only one that says it will try."