From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sun Sep 22 20:56:31 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sun, 22 Sep 2002 20:56:31 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tJOh-0005dr-00 for ; Sun, 22 Sep 2002 20:56:31 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tJJj-0006FS-00; Sun, 22 Sep 2002 20:51:23 -0600 Received: from mta5.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.241]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tJIV-0006FF-00 for ; Sun, 22 Sep 2002 20:50:07 -0600 Received: from sabri ([66.124.235.137]) by mta5.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H2V000DWEJHHO@mta5.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sun, 22 Sep 2002 19:50:06 -0700 (PDT) From: Sabri Oncu To: PEN-L , ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: QUOTED-PRINTABLE Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Germany: Election results Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sun, 22 Sep 2002 19:52:41 -0700 Date: Sun, 22 Sep 2002 19:52:41 -0700 Are there any European friends here to comment on this? Brits don't count, Australians are OK. Sabri +++++ Schroeder's Party Wins 2nd Term Sun Sep 22,10:26 PM ET By TONY CZUCZKA, Associated Press Writer BERLIN (AP) - Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats won one of Germany's closest postwar election Sunday, after a campaign that focused on fears of a war with Iraq and unleashed anti-American rhetoric. With 99.7 percent of the vote counted, a jubilant Schroeder appeared arm-in-arm with Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer of the Greens party, the partner in his governing coalition, before cheering supporters at Social Democratic Party headquarters. "We have hard times in front of us and we're going to make it together," Schroeder shouted above the din. Official results showed the Social Democrats and Greens combined won 47.1 percent of the vote to continue their coalition for another four years. The conservative challengers led by Bavarian governor Edmund Stoiber, together with the Free Democrats, had 45.9 percent. Absentee ballots were already counted. The Social Democrats and environmentalist Greens won 305 seats in the new parliament of 601 seats, compared to 294 for the conservative challengers led by Bavarian governor Edmund Stoiber, according to projections by ARD public television. In Germany's closest race, a Social Democrat-led government won a 10-seat majority in parliament in 1976 over the Christian Democrats. Stoiber stopped short of conceding in a speech to rowdy supporters in Munich, but predicted that Schroeder's majority would be too slim to form a lasting coalition. "Should the result not allow us to form a government, then I predict before you that this Schroeder government will rule for only a very short time," he said. Stoiber said Schroeder will have to repair relations with Washington, damaged by a new German assertiveness that emerged over American determination to oust Saddam Hussein ( news - web sites). Schroeder, whose outspoken defiance against war with Iraq was credited with giving him a late-push in the tight campaign, said he won't back down. He has insisted he would not commit troops for a war even if the United Nations ( news - web sites) backs military action. While Schroeder's anti-war stand resonated with German voters, the rhetoric reached a damaging peak in the final days of his campaign when Justice Minister Herta Daeuberl-Gmelin was reported to have compared President Bush ( news - web sites) to Hitler for threatening war to distract from domestic problems. She denied saying it. The Social Democrats already have made clear she would not have a post if they are re-elected, however Schroeder sought to appease Washington with a conciliatory letter to Bush. Washington reacted coolly =97 indicating to analysts that a Schroeder team will have to work hard to repair the traditionally strong bond. "It seems to me that for the relationship and the Iraq issue itself there's no doubt that Schroeder was trying to tap radical pacifist and anti-American sentiment in the population and preliminarily it doesn't seem to have hurt him. And it may have even helped him," said Jeffrey Gedmin, director of the Aspen Institute think tank in Berlin. Speaking on CNN Sunday, Sen. Joe Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the "core relationship between the Republic of Germany and the United States is solid. What you had is Schroeder doing what a lot of politicians do, trying to get out his base." Biden, D-Del., said the relationship between the two countries can be repaired. Stoiber, who used the ruckus over Iraq as ammunition, again accused the chancellor of whipping up emotions against the United States for electoral gain. Stoiber, like the chancellor, opposes unilateral U.S. action, but he insists Germany must be ready to support any U.N.-backed action against Saddam =97 though not with front-line troops. Greens were elated by a trend showing the strongest showing in their 22-year history. Leader Rezzo Schlauch said his party got momentum from the Iraq debate and the popularity of Fischer. "We are so happy ... There was the issue of war and peace, and we have a highly competent foreign minister. It was a combination of the issues and the people in charge," Schlauch said. Some 80 percent of Germany's 61 million voters turned out Sunday =97 casting two votes, one for a local candidate and one for a party. The party vote is critical because it determines the percentage of seats each party wins in the Bundestag, or parliament, chosen from a list of candidates it has submitted. Parliament is being downsized to a minimum 598 seats, however the complex voting system allows for seats to be added if a party wins more direct seats in a state than it is entitled under the distribution of seats based on the second vote. Even with 298 of 299 precincts reporting, the total number of seats and their distribution won't be clear until the final results are in. The ex-communist Party of Democratic Socialism fell short of the 5 percent necessary to form a parliamentary group, however two candidates won seats. According to ZDF public television, the Social Democrats and Greens would control 307 seats compared to 297 for the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats in a possible 606-seat parliament. N-tv private television, using projections from the Forsa polling agency, gave a larger advantage to a Social Democratic-Green coalition, with 310 seats, compared to the challengers' 295 seats, in a possible 607-seat parliament. The Iraq debate distracted from domestic issues, such as pressing unemployment and a flagging economy, that gave Stoiber an early lead in the campaign. Stoiber, 60, Bavaria's governor for the past nine years, proposed faster tax cuts than Schroeder especially for small and midsize businesses. He pledged to overturn a Schroeder law that widened the powers of labor unions in workplace decisions and to curb rising energy taxes. And he said he intended to scrap an immigration law passed under Schroeder that he says is too liberal. Beyond his forthright stand on Iraq, Schroeder broad-brushed much of his agenda for a second four-year term except to uphold the Social Democratic values like a fair society and the welfare state. Stung by Germany's jobless problem, he has pledged to reform the highly regulated labor market. He has also promised to expand all-day schools and child care to make life easier for working mothers. In the current 669-seat legislature, Schroeder's Social Democrats hold 298 seats, the Christian Democrats/CSU 245, the Greens 47, the Free Democrats 43 and the ex-communists 36. Article at: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=3Dstory2&ncid=3D716&e=3D2&u=3D/ap/200= 2092 3/ap_on_re_eu/germany_election From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sun Sep 22 21:33:30 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sun, 22 Sep 2002 21:33:30 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tJyU-0005qO-00 for ; Sun, 22 Sep 2002 21:33:30 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tJyI-0006bH-00; Sun, 22 Sep 2002 21:33:18 -0600 Received: from mta5.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.241]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tJxc-0006ax-00 for ; Sun, 22 Sep 2002 21:32:36 -0600 Received: from sabri ([66.124.235.137]) by mta5.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H2V000T7GIBGO@mta5.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sun, 22 Sep 2002 20:32:36 -0700 (PDT) From: Sabri Oncu To: ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] The New Great Powers Theory Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sun, 22 Sep 2002 20:35:11 -0700 Date: Sun, 22 Sep 2002 20:35:11 -0700 Financial Times, September 21, 2002 AMERICA'S SECURITY STRATEGY - Self-belief lies at heart of security blueprint 'DEFENDING THE PEACE'. By JAMES HARDING. When Dean Acheson, secretary of state to President Harry S. Truman, sought a title for his memoirs, he hit upon a quote from the 13th century Spanish king Alfonso The Wise: "Had I been present at the creation, I would have given some useful hints for the better ordering of the universe." It provided an apt name - Present at the Creation - for a book about a small group of policy-makers who, in the aftermath of the second world war, became midwives to a new world order. The Truman administration was witness to the creation of the state of Israel, an independent India and the new nation of Pakistan. It backed the infant Bretton Woods institutions designed to create a new world financial order. And, having watched China "fall" into communist hands, it decided to fight the spread of communism on the Korean peninsula and elsewhere. The sweeping foreign affairs of the Truman administration, fuelled by the growing anxieties about Soviet Russia, a destitute Europe and the collapse of colonialism at the onset of the nuclear age, were ultimately condensed into a single strategy: NSC 68. It contained the central idea of "coercion", demanding an increase in military spending, an expansion of US military forces overseas and the tightening of western alliances to contain and deter the communist threat. Rather self-consciously, policy-makers in Washington have spent the past summer months drafting and re-drafting what they like to think of as a successor document for a different age. The National Security Strategy, published yesterday, is designed to articulate America's plans in an age of "shadowy networks" of extremists and unpredictable tyrant regimes. "America is now threatened less by conquering states than we are by failing ones," the 33-page paper said. "In the cold war... we faced a generally status quo, risk averse adversary... Traditional concepts of deterrence will not work against a terrorist enemy whose avowed tactics are wanton destruction and the targeting of innocents." The events of September 11 last year set the tone of the strategy. Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser who pulled together the strategy, likes to refer to the fall of the Berlin wall and 9/11 as "book-ends" on a chapter of uncertainty in US foreign policy. September 11 made clear a new kind of threat to the US. And the terrorist attacks, which came without warning, underpin the most contentious, ground-breaking proposal: the use of pre-emptive military action as a measure of self-defence. The administration's argument is that in an age of imminent, but unpredictable danger, it does not want to wait for proof of a threat to its interests. At the centre of the strategy is America's belief in the triumph of democracy and free markets and its sense of its own responsibility as the sole military superpower to "defend the peace". Just as NSC 68 grew out of the Truman doctrine - "the support of free peoples who are resisting subjugation" which he promised before Congress in 1947 - so too this strategy is the extension of a Bush formula. "We will defend the peace against the threats from terrorists and tyrants. We will preserve the peace by building good relations among the great powers. And we will extend the peace by encouraging free and open societies on every continent," Mr Bush said in a speech at West Point in June. In its fine print, though, the document is the distillation of thinking which dates back well before September 11 and which stretches far beyond Mr Bush and his national security adviser. The Defense Planning Guidance papers drawn up by Dick Cheney, now vice-president, when he was defence secretary in the administration of George Bush senior have been filtered into yesterday's strategy paper. Donald Rumsfeld, the defence secretary, has been a public advocate of pre-emption. Administration officials have insisted in recent weeks that there is ample precedent for a doctrine of pre-emption, in spite of previous administrations - including the Reagan White House - opposing any pre-emptive strike as outside the norms of international law. Well before September 11 and the deployment of the US military in Afghanistan, Mr Rumsfeld had set to work on what had long been called "the revolution in military affairs". There was input from some of the other ideologues who staff the upper echelons of the Bush administration - notably the deputies: Paul Wolfowitz, number two to Mr Rumsfeld, and Lewis "Scooter" Libby, chief of staff to Mr Cheney. The reference in the strategy paper to "supporting moderate and modern government, especially in the Muslim world", echoes some of what Mr Wolfowitz said in his academic spells out of government when he focused, among other things, on America's relationship with the Islamic world. In the final version, Ms Rice's hand was clear. The call to "expand the circle of development" through democratisation, free markets and free trade carried on themes she made public when she was Mr Bush's foreign policy adviser in the 2000 election campaign. And the development of a new strategy of "co-operative action" with the centres of global power - if you like, the beginnings of a new "great powers" theory - had the mark of a former academic who now sits a few doors down from the president. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 00:42:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 00:42:33 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tMvR-0006cB-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 00:42:33 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tMvC-0007qn-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 00:42:18 -0600 Received: from imo-m05.mx.aol.com ([64.12.136.8]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17sluk-0002T4-00 for ; Sat, 21 Sep 2002 09:11:22 -0600 Received: from Waistline2@aol.com by imo-m05.mx.aol.com (mail_out_v34.10.) id w.f7.21bf4590 (18403) for ; Sat, 21 Sep 2002 11:11:10 -0400 (EDT) From: Waistline2@aol.com Message-ID: Subject: Re: [A-List] Revolution in the Air/Afterburn or After thought To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="part1_f7.21bf4590.2abde60e_boundary" X-Mailer: AOL 7.0 for Windows US sub 10641 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 21 Sep 2002 11:11:10 EDT Date: Sat, 21 Sep 2002 11:11:10 EDT --part1_f7.21bf4590.2abde60e_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit A trusted friend who read the Review of Reviews centered on the books "Revolution In the Air" and "The Future Is Up To Us," stated that my comments were a tad bit to theoretical and abstract and difficult for anyone that had not lived the period in question - as an activist, to understand. This trusted friend had lived the era as an activist and further stated that to many distinct historical junctures where combined together. He - actually him and his wife, further stated that in the absence of a general understanding of the national colonial question in America, they doubted whether anyone would genuinely grasp why the 1967 Rebellion in Detroit represented a political in the social movement. I asked for an example and the following paragraph was bought to my attention. >The New Communist Movement was not a communist movement at all but a movement within Marxism as the science of society, unable to reconcile the equality demand of the petty bourgeois black masses with the historical assertion of the proletarian revolution. No one can talk about the black masses as petty bourgeois except that sector of the Marxist movement from which I was raised and consolidated a distinct body of theory. "We can say what other cannot say" because of our peculiar development. The New Communist Movement was historically trapped and could not escape a class configuration in American history. We were generated on the basis of the 1967 Rebellion against the state authority and not the movement of the petty bourgeois into the proletariat. That was our fate. < I was then asked to rewrite this paragraph as an article. Below is a quick rewrite. The New Communist Movement was historically trapped and could not escape the unfolding of a specific class configuration and its political consequence. The political consequences unfolded over the course of several decades and grew out of the restructuring of the economy. The mechanizations of agriculture meant restructuring the economy and rendered the labor of millions of sharecroppers superfluous. This process of mechanizations of agriculture picked up steam in the early 1940s and was actually the economic revolution needed to complete the political revolution that was called the Civil War in America. The uprooting of millions of people from the land as sharecroppers and their movement into the proletariat - industrial infrastructure as associated producers, is understood as a social movement of the petty bourgeoisie - the small producer, many whom attempted to eke out an existence on the land. Many of these small producers migrated to the larger cities within the South as a region, during a period of history where Yankee financial capital was implementing its Southern Strategy or relocating industry South. Sharecropping is a business even when the large landowner and the merchant perpetually cheat one. The salient feature of the fundamental barrier this group of declassed sharecroppers faced was segregation - legal, illegal and extra legal. Thus the demand for equality and equal access was the cutting edge of this social movement. No one denies that this declassed group of millions were black and white small landholders and producers - together roughly 11 million. While the salient feature of the barrier of exclusion was color discrimination, it was not the only barrier. Alongside the migration throughout the South as a region was the mass migration to the industrial Midwest. Although it takes several generations for the Anglo American minority from the former slave holding South to successfully assimilate the Anglo of the Yankee, he faces the institutional barriers that regulate him to the bottom of the social ladder along with the Southern black. The demand of the Anglo-American minority worker from the South did not and cannot appear as the cry for freedom that expresses the demand for quality of the black. Rather, his demand is expressed as a cry for justice and fairness. These noble demands are in the last instance not the demand of the proletariat in the imperial center as proletariat. The distinction is rooted in class phenomena, although there is no Great Wall of China separating the demand of the national minority workers from that of their folk in the colonized area from which they hail. The stifling air of institutionalized discrimination in the imperial center is a stopgap measure that holds the immigrant colonial workers in his colonial relationship. This is true for the Irish worker in England, the Algerian worker in France and most certainly true of the petty bourgeois black masses that migrated North. The battle to break the barrier of color discrimination contains junctures and turning points that produced legislation for open housing and Voting Rights. What began as a struggle for partial victory against segregation became a social movement in distinct stages. The Bus boycott in Montgomery Alabama was the catalyst to transform an anti-segregation movement into a social movement expressed as Freedom. Freedom meant more than a cup of coffee or a bus ride. This freedom movement exploded in Birmingham Alabama in 1963 as the outbreak of rioting. Birmingham Alabama - the South's historic area of steel production, was a spark indicating a shift away from non-violence as a strategy. The turning point in the social movement came in 1965 with the Watts Rebellion. The masses not only rebelled by shot the misleader from the podium advocating passive resistance. The Watts Rebellion is best understood in the context of the world anti-colonial revolt and on the level of strategic thinking represented the encirclement of US imperialism by the fighting colonial masses. The Watts Rebellion rendered all the revolutionary groups in America obsolete and exposed a fundamental disconnect of all the Marxist groups and Communist associations who could not shift from their historic bases of support. In respect to the CPUSA, it has abolished and abandoned its Southern organizations in 1948 as a compromise to the old Roosevelt Coalition and with this compromise liquidated the Marxist conception of the national colonial question as codified in the documents of the Third International. The disconnect with the historic Marxist movement was fundamental but not apparent to many revolutionaries. The contradictory motion of the working class - North and South, which appeared as black combatants demanding freedom, could not be reconciled and combined with the logic of the motion of the trade unions. The trade union movement is of course a sector of the labor movement, its organized section. Further, and with few exceptions the trade unions leaders positions of leadership - elections, were based on the disfranchisement of the black workers, legal and illegal. These workers in industry (black) - not just the trade unions but the labor movement as a whole, cold not escape the second-class citizenship imposed on all colonials who immigrate/migrate to the imperial center. In America the competition between the lower sections of the working class evolved on the basis of importation of millions of workers from Europe and exclusion of the blacks, more than less held in the economic category called sharecropping. The social movement demanding Freedom housed the specific demands and aspirations of the blacks North and South and across class lines because the leading slogan of a social movement is always greater than its parts. One can properly speak of the black community as a more than less cohesive political entity in this period of time. State sponsored violence, illegal and extralegal terror held this community together. What has in fact shaped the African American people as a people and held them together has been the violence and terror of the whites and not some peculiar development in commodity production. Then something else happened. Birmingham 1963, Watts 1965 and then Detroit 1967. Detroit exploded in an orgy of violence, forcing a fundamental realignment of all political institutions. The 1967 Rebellion in Detroit did not just happen "out of the blue." In 1965 a small rebellion had broken out on Detroit's East Side, with small groups of militants arming themselves against the police. The catalyst for this outbreak was the murder of a prostitute by the police. The Detroit Rebellions were not the logic of the movement of this declassed mass of sharecroppers seeking entry into industry, but an assertion of the black community, which was profoundly industrial proletarian and working class objecting to police violence and police authority. The 67 Rebellion broke out in the Black business district of Detroit - 12th Street, and this district had evolved because whites would not provide certain services to blacks. The catalyst for the Rebellion was the police raid of an "after hour joint" or what is called a "blind pig" or "speak easy" in another era. This was in fact the black community. This community as such no longer exists, although there are communities throughout America more than less black. What has changed is the class character of these more than less communities - neighborhoods, of blacks. To summarized. What began as a social movement generated on the basis of the mechanization of agriculture uprooting and affecting 11 million sharecroppers exhibited phase change. Of the 11 million sharecroppers roughly 5 million were black - descendants of latifundia slavery. The sharecropper as an economic category is what we generally refer to as an economic class. This class is referred to as the petit bourgeoisie because of its role in the production of a commodity as partial owners and partial producer. What looked like a black movement and in fact was the Negro Peoples Freedom Movement was a social movement generated on the basis of changes in the mode of production. The segregation that pinned 11 million sharecroppers to back breaking toil and exploitation by large landowners under the thumb of finance capital was institutionalized on the basis of the super exploitation, subjugation and humiliation of the black, no matter what his status in society. What arose was absurd repeat of the immediate aftermath of the Civil War - an intersection of interest between Northern financial-industrial capital and the freedom demand of the black millions seeking an end to segregation, political powerlessness and economic exclusion. As this petty bourgeois movement was being driven forward on the basis of the reform of capitalist production relations it intersected with and was part of broader complex changes in American society and the world. Once again the political South needed to be defeated to allow for the economic reform of capital. Prior to the 1967 Rebellion blacks were seeking a political voice as expressed in the formation of the Freedom Now Party of Michigan, which of course was based almost exclusively in Detroit. The Freedom Now Party of Michigan was of necessity different from the Freedom Now Party of Mississippi, which evolved on the basis of conflict with the large landowners. What large landowners are there in Detroit? Detroit is not agricultural. Detroit was industrial working class in the most black and white terms. Who was the Freedom Now Party fighting if not the political superstructure, the trade union leaders and the barriers in the labor movement? A small group of blacks galvanized on the basis of the 1965 mini-riot had been inspired by the revolution in Cuba and gone to Cuba to express their support. Some of these folks were also involved with the Freedom Now Party in the pre 67 era and formed small collectives including study groups focusing on Karl Marx Capital and the military writings of Chairman Mao. Many of these combatants rejected the old CPUSA slogan "Black and White Unite and Fight," which would later be picked up by the so-called New or Young Communist whose disconnect with the old communist movement prevented them from understanding the origin of the slogan and what it meant. At this late date the power of hindsight can unravel the obvious. During the 30s and 40s the Black were in the main a mass of sharecroppers and the white were the proletariat proper. "Black and White Unite and Fight," was not and could not be the leading slogan of the Negro Peoples Freedom movement. The expressed desire of the African American masses has always been for inclusion into the social, political and economic fabric of American society. There have been bitter arguments over strategy and tactics but never the expressed goal of inclusion. The competition within the working class of all countries causes the class to fight itself over employment opportunity and given the very real class configuration and color factor in our history this fight is expressed as color as opposed to a religious battle. In 1968 the first issue of the Inner City Voice Appeared whose headline was Michigan Slavery. During this year the UAW attempted to realign its attitude towards the blacks within the union with the one of the first black Local Union presidents at Local 51 - Homer Jolly Sr. he Freedom Movement amongst black in Detroit was not a sharecroppers Movement but an all class movement with a powerful industrial proletariat. This social movement within industry had its voice articulated by activists with varying understandings of Marxism. Within in industry blacks workers poured into shop groups called RUM's (Revolutionary Union Movement) battling the barrier of discrimination on all fronts. Community and political associations were drawn into the orbit of the Revolutionary Union Movement, which could not be organized on the basis of the factory system. The demand for community control of the schools exploded and this political current could not be organized on the basis of the factory system. What was needed was a league - an organizational framework, to coordinate various facets of the social movement. The League of Revolutionary Black Workers was organized for this task and proclaimed its goal as public property relations in the industrial infrastructure under the hegemony of the black worker whose fighting capacity and strategy would be hammered out through the creation of a black Marxist Leninist Party. The League did not reject working with white revolutionaries and collective efforts with various radical groups but was insistent about having "its own thing." The League understood it was not a political party much less a Leninist party, which is why its program advocated the creation of a Lenin type party. This assertion in Detroit created the political vortex for the desire on the part of militants to form Marxist Leninist Party's throughout America. It had been proven in Detroit that the industrial worker could in fact be organized on another basis than purely trade union politics. Various groups of activist inspired by Detroit sought to organize their own thing on behalf of the working class. One current was called the Young Communist Movement. This was an ideological movement and the words ideological movement is not bad words because ideology is important. The disconnect through the Communist Party USA was widened as it clung to old formula and put forth the most absurd political programs and slogans, expressed in books like Henry Winston's Strategy for a Black Agenda and various calls for an anti Monopoly Coalition. The Young Communist Movement or rather the individuals and groups that became the young communist were immediately confronted with the National Colonial Question. Not simply because of the movement of blacks but because this was the era of the anti-colonial revolts. Lacking organizational frameworks with the social movement these groups in the main became support groups of the fighting colonial masses. What was unique about the League was that it was not an industrial organization but a federation of organizations. The league had not intention of becoming a support group of any colonial movement no matter how glorious or noble, and through loosely federated organizations engaged the social process on every conceivable front. The tendency to identify the League with the RUM - shop groups, is a mistake that the Young Communist would manifest in its various attempts to organized the workers in the shop. This question of becoming an attachment to the colonial movements was carried to the extreme by the RU, which if memory serves me correct, later became the RCP (Revolutionary Communist Party) and an attachment of the Chinese State. Elementary revolutionary strategy - much less Marxism as a fighting doctrine (not simply a theory in this usage) was misunderstood. Revolutionaries in America must unconditionally support revolution but not states. A larger question involving the formation of the Young Communist Movement is a misunderstanding of social movements and junctures. These groups calling themselves parties were formed at the moment of the ebb in the social movement the Freedom Movement and its transformation, while the old League was formed at the point of the flow of the social movement as it griped industry. Further, the league morphed through a bitter purge which took the form of a split and merging with the California Communist League in unison with the transformation taking place in the social movement. "Revolution In The Air" - from what was stated in various reviews, attempts to explain the demise of the Young Communist without a grasp of the body of Marxist theory and the doctrine of the class struggle. Theory and doctrine are different categories as is the art of "capturing" the social movement. "The New Communist Movement was historically trapped and could not escape a certain class configuration in American history as the social movement experienced transition. We were generated on the basis of the 1967 Rebellion against the state authority and not the movement of the petty bourgeois into the proletariat. That was our fate." By the late mid 1970s after the various M-L parties and groups had been formed the new phase of struggle was expressed in Detroit in the electoral arena. The Freedom Now Party had failed in the early 1960s to realize its purpose, which was transformation of the electoral arena. The election of Coleman Young as Mayor in Detroit was based on an alignment of forces whose unity was based on dismantling the terrorist groups in the Police Department; the notorious Red Squad which kept everyone under surveillance and reconfiguring the entire DPD (Detroit Police Department) and its union. The decade of the 1970s in Detroit is marked by intense social conflict, political assassination and political realignment. The Democratic Party and the UAW - an immense political force in the city and state, could not control this social movement, which broke out as the State of Siege Movement in the mid 70s against police terror. A demonstration was called by a section that had broken off from the old League different from those of us that became the Communist League, and brought over 5,000 people into the streets opposing Police Violence and demanding revolutionary discipline from the podium. This movement centered around the leadership of Kenneth Cockrel Sr. was later organized as DARE (Detroit Alliance for a Rational Economy). The masses in Detroit and the outlying area developed a sharp class instinct that not only elected Coleman Young who carried out his campaign promises and agreement with the Marxist and radicals, but also two publicly announced Marxist. Such class instinct meant that the Freedom Movement was imbued with class content, in as much as these elected candidates advocated socialism and public property relations. In 1976 the Communist League - now the Communist Labor Party having merged with the Motor City Labor League locally and scattered political groupings nationally, launched its Vote Communist Campaign where the citizens were asked to sign petitions to get the Communist Labor Party on the ballot. The propaganda machine of the bourgeoisie could not halt this movement on the basis anti-communism, which in our country has always been tightly linked to white chauvinism. Roughly 25,000 authentic voter signatures were secured by campaigning at factory gates, shopping centers and anywhere more than two people gathered. This effort had set the state for alternate political associations and groupings decidedly anti-communist such as the Democratic Socialist Organizing Committee and former UAW President Doug Fraser's attempt to form a "Progressive Alliance." In 1978 three parties won ballot status, the Socialist Workers Party and the fascist U.S. Labour Party and Communist Labor Party. Here is a story worth telling but not now. The point is that 1978-1980 represented a certain ebbing in the social movement, which has lasted almost 30 years. How could a Young Communist Movement thrive detached from this very real social movement? Further the Young Communist Movement attempted to find it's bearing during the decade of the 1980 during a period of transition in the structure of capital and changes in social forces. A law of transition governs communist groups and Marxist groupings of all kinds. Even today one occasionally encounter Marxist collectives passionately speaking of "wining over the workers" and industrial concentration during a period of time when the social forces poised to explode are concentrated in a sector of the proletariat increasingly outside industry. The law of transition means that Marxist groups must purge themselves and recruit from new social forces or pass from the historical stage. At this point in time the league form of association is the only organizational form available for a serious revolutionary to conduct work. The Young communist were more than less ideological groups, destined to pass from the stage of history. The New Communist Movement was historically trapped and could not escape a class configuration in American history and transitions in the social struggle. Melvin P More later. --part1_f7.21bf4590.2abde60e_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit A trusted friend who read the Review of Reviews centered on the books "Revolution In the Air" and "The Future Is Up To Us," stated that my comments were a tad bit to theoretical and abstract and difficult for anyone that had not lived the period in question - as an activist, to understand.

This trusted friend had lived the era as an activist and further stated that to many distinct historical junctures where combined together. He - actually him and his wife, further stated that in the absence of a general understanding of the national colonial question in America, they doubted whether anyone would genuinely grasp why the 1967 Rebellion in Detroit represented a political in the social movement.

I asked for an example and the following paragraph was bought to my attention.

>The New Communist Movement was not a communist movement at all but a movement within Marxism as the science of society, unable to reconcile the equality demand of the petty bourgeois black masses with the historical assertion of the proletarian revolution. No one can talk about the black masses as petty bourgeois except that sector of the Marxist movement from which I was raised and consolidated a distinct body of theory. "We can say what other cannot say" because of our peculiar development. The New Communist Movement was historically trapped and could not escape a class configuration in American history. We were generated on the basis of the 1967 Rebellion against the state authority and not the movement of the petty bourgeois into the proletariat. That was our fate. <

I was then asked to rewrite this paragraph as an article. Below is a quick rewrite.

The New Communist Movement was historically trapped and could not escape the unfolding of a specific class configuration and its political consequence. The political consequences unfolded over the course of several decades and grew out of the restructuring of the economy. The mechanizations of agriculture meant restructuring the economy and rendered the labor of millions of sharecroppers superfluous. This process of mechanizations of agriculture picked up steam in the early 1940s and was actually the economic revolution needed to complete the political revolution that was called the Civil War in America.

The uprooting of millions of people from the land as sharecroppers and their movement into the proletariat - industrial infrastructure as associated producers, is understood as a social movement of the petty bourgeoisie - the small producer, many whom attempted to eke out an existence on the land. Many of these small producers migrated to the larger cities within the South as a region, during a period of history where Yankee financial capital was implementing its Southern Strategy or relocating industry South.

Sharecropping is a business even when the large landowner and the merchant perpetually cheat one.
The salient feature of the fundamental barrier this group of declassed sharecroppers faced was segregation - legal, illegal and extra legal.  Thus the demand for equality and equal access was the cutting edge of this social movement.

No one denies that this declassed group of millions were black and white small landholders and producers - together roughly 11 million. While the salient feature of the barrier of exclusion was color discrimination, it was not the only barrier. Alongside the migration throughout the South as a region was the mass migration to the industrial Midwest. Although it takes several generations for the Anglo American minority from the former slave holding South to successfully assimilate the Anglo of the Yankee, he faces the institutional barriers that regulate him to the bottom of the social ladder along with the Southern black. The demand of the Anglo-American minority worker from the South did not and cannot appear as the cry for freedom that expresses the demand for quality of the black. Rather, his demand is expressed as a cry for justice and fairness.

These noble demands are in the last instance not the demand of the proletariat in the imperial center as proletariat. The distinction is rooted in class phenomena, although there is no Great Wall of China separating the demand of the national minority workers from that of their folk in the colonized area from which they hail.

The stifling air of institutionalized discrimination in the imperial center is a stopgap measure that holds the immigrant colonial workers in his colonial relationship. This is true for the Irish worker in England, the Algerian worker in France and most certainly true of the petty bourgeois black masses that migrated North.

The battle to break the barrier of color discrimination contains junctures and turning points that produced legislation for open housing and Voting Rights. What began as a struggle for partial victory against segregation became a social movement in distinct stages. The Bus boycott in Montgomery Alabama was the catalyst to transform an anti-segregation movement into a social movement expressed as Freedom. Freedom meant more than a cup of coffee or a bus ride. This freedom movement exploded in Birmingham Alabama in 1963 as the outbreak of rioting. 

Birmingham Alabama - the South's historic area of steel production, was a spark indicating a shift away from non-violence as a strategy. The turning point in the social movement came in 1965 with the Watts Rebellion. The masses not only rebelled by shot the misleader from the podium advocating passive resistance. The Watts Rebellion is best understood in the context of the world anti-colonial revolt and on the level of strategic thinking represented the encirclement of US imperialism by the fighting colonial masses.

The Watts Rebellion rendered all the revolutionary groups in America obsolete and exposed a fundamental disconnect of all the Marxist groups and Communist associations who could not shift from their historic bases of support. In respect to the CPUSA, it has abolished and abandoned its Southern organizations in 1948 as a compromise to the old Roosevelt Coalition and with this compromise liquidated the Marxist conception of the national colonial question as codified in the documents of the Third International. The disconnect with the historic Marxist movement was fundamental but not apparent to many revolutionaries.

The contradictory motion of the working class - North and South, which appeared as black combatants demanding freedom, could not be reconciled and combined with the logic of the motion of the trade unions. The trade union movement is of course a sector of the labor movement, its organized section. Further, and with few exceptions the trade unions leaders positions of leadership - elections, were based on the disfranchisement of the black workers, legal and illegal.

These workers in industry (black) - not just the trade unions but the labor movement as a whole, cold not escape the second-class citizenship imposed on all colonials who immigrate/migrate to the imperial center. In America the competition between the lower sections of the working class evolved on the basis of importation of millions of workers from Europe and exclusion of the blacks, more than less held in the economic category called sharecropping.

The social movement demanding Freedom housed the specific demands and aspirations of the blacks North and South and across class lines because the leading slogan of a social movement is always greater than its parts. One can properly speak of the black community as a more than less cohesive political entity in this period of time. State sponsored violence, illegal and extralegal terror held this community together. What has in fact shaped the African American people as a people and held them together has been the violence and terror of the whites and not some peculiar development in commodity production.

Then something else happened. Birmingham 1963, Watts 1965 and then Detroit 1967. Detroit exploded in an orgy of violence, forcing a fundamental realignment of all political institutions.

The 1967 Rebellion in Detroit did not just happen "out of the blue." In 1965 a small rebellion had broken out on Detroit's East Side, with small groups of militants arming themselves against the police. The catalyst for this outbreak was the murder of a prostitute by the police. The Detroit Rebellions were not the logic of the movement of this declassed mass of sharecroppers seeking entry into industry, but an assertion of the black community, which was profoundly industrial proletarian and working class objecting to police violence and police authority.

The 67 Rebellion broke out in the Black business district of Detroit - 12th Street, and this district had evolved because whites would not provide certain services to blacks. The catalyst for the Rebellion was the police raid of an "after hour joint" or what is called a "blind pig" or "speak easy" in another era.
This was in fact the black community. This community as such no longer exists, although there are communities throughout America more than less black. What has changed is the class character of these more than less communities - neighborhoods, of blacks. 

To summarized. What began as a social movement generated on the basis of the mechanization of agriculture uprooting and affecting 11 million sharecroppers exhibited phase change. Of the 11 million sharecroppers roughly 5 million were black - descendants of latifundia slavery. The sharecropper as an economic category is what we generally refer to as an economic class. This class is referred to as the petit bourgeoisie because of its role in the production of a commodity as partial owners and partial producer. What looked like a black movement and in fact was the Negro Peoples Freedom Movement was a social movement generated on the basis of changes in the mode of production.

The segregation that pinned 11 million sharecroppers to back breaking toil and exploitation by large landowners under the thumb of finance capital was institutionalized on the basis of the super exploitation, subjugation and humiliation of the black, no matter what his status in society. 

What arose was absurd repeat of the immediate aftermath of the Civil War - an intersection of interest between Northern financial-industrial capital and the freedom demand of the black millions seeking an end to segregation, political powerlessness and economic exclusion. As this petty bourgeois movement was being driven forward on the basis of the reform of capitalist production relations it intersected with and was part of broader complex changes in American society and the world. Once again the political South needed to be defeated to allow for the economic reform of capital.

Prior to the 1967 Rebellion blacks were seeking a political voice as expressed in the formation of the Freedom Now Party of Michigan, which of course was based almost exclusively in Detroit. The Freedom Now Party of Michigan was of necessity different from the Freedom Now Party of Mississippi, which evolved on the basis of conflict with the large landowners. What large landowners are there in Detroit? Detroit is not agricultural. Detroit was industrial working class in the most black and white terms. Who was the Freedom Now Party fighting if not the political superstructure, the trade union leaders and the barriers in the labor movement?

A small group of blacks galvanized on the basis of the 1965 mini-riot had been inspired by the revolution in Cuba and gone to Cuba to express their support. Some of these folks were also involved with the Freedom Now Party in the pre 67 era and formed small collectives including study groups focusing on Karl Marx Capital and the military writings of Chairman Mao. Many of these combatants rejected the old CPUSA slogan "Black and White Unite and Fight," which would later be picked up by the so-called New or Young Communist whose disconnect with the old communist movement prevented them from understanding the origin of the slogan and what it meant.

At this late date the power of hindsight can unravel the obvious. During the 30s and 40s the Black were in the main a mass of sharecroppers and the white were the proletariat proper.  "Black and White Unite and Fight," was not and could not be the leading slogan of the Negro Peoples Freedom movement. The expressed desire of the African American masses has always been for inclusion into the social, political and economic fabric of American society. There have been bitter arguments over strategy and tactics but never the expressed goal of inclusion.

The competition within the working class of all countries causes the class to fight itself over employment opportunity and given the very real class configuration and color factor in our history this fight is expressed as color as opposed to a religious battle.
In 1968 the first issue of the Inner City Voice Appeared whose headline was Michigan Slavery. During this year the UAW attempted to realign its attitude towards the blacks within the union with the one of the first black Local Union presidents at Local 51 - Homer Jolly Sr. he Freedom Movement amongst black in Detroit was not a sharecroppers Movement but an all class movement with a powerful industrial proletariat. This social movement within industry had its voice articulated by activists with varying understandings of Marxism. Within in industry blacks workers poured into shop groups called RUM's (Revolutionary Union Movement) battling the barrier of discrimination on all fronts. Community and political associations were drawn into the orbit of the Revolutionary Union Movement, which could not be organized on the basis of the factory system. The demand for community control of the schools exploded and this political current could not be organized on the basis of the factory system.

What was needed was a league - an organizational framework, to coordinate various facets of the social movement. The League of Revolutionary Black Workers was organized for this task and proclaimed its goal as public property relations in the industrial infrastructure under the hegemony of the black worker whose fighting capacity and strategy would be hammered out through the creation of a black Marxist Leninist Party. The League did not reject working with white revolutionaries and collective efforts with various radical groups but was insistent about having "its own thing."  The League understood it was not a political party much less a Leninist party, which is why its program advocated the creation of a Lenin type party.

This assertion in Detroit created the political vortex for the desire on the part of militants to form Marxist Leninist Party's throughout America. It had been proven in Detroit that the industrial worker could in fact be organized on another basis than purely trade union politics.

Various groups of activist inspired by Detroit sought to organize their own thing on behalf of the working class. One current was called the Young Communist Movement. This was an ideological movement and the words ideological movement is not bad words because ideology is important. The disconnect through the Communist Party USA was widened as it clung to old formula and put forth the most absurd political programs and slogans, expressed in books like Henry Winston's Strategy for a Black Agenda and various calls for an anti Monopoly Coalition.

The Young Communist Movement or rather the individuals and groups that became the young communist were immediately confronted with the National Colonial Question. Not simply because of the movement of blacks but because this was the era of the anti-colonial revolts. Lacking organizational frameworks with the social movement these groups in the main became support groups of the fighting colonial masses.

What was unique about the League was that it was not an industrial organization but a federation of organizations. The league had not intention of becoming a support group of any colonial movement no matter how glorious or noble, and through loosely federated organizations engaged the social process on every conceivable front. The tendency to identify the League with the RUM - shop groups, is a mistake that the Young Communist would manifest in its various attempts to organized the workers in the shop.

This question of becoming an attachment to the colonial movements was carried to the extreme by the RU, which if memory serves me correct, later became the RCP (Revolutionary Communist Party) and an attachment of the Chinese State. Elementary revolutionary strategy - much less Marxism as a fighting doctrine (not simply a theory in this usage) was misunderstood. Revolutionaries in America must unconditionally support revolution but not states.

A larger question involving the formation of the Young Communist Movement is a misunderstanding of social movements and junctures. These groups calling themselves parties were formed at the moment of the ebb in the social movement the Freedom Movement and its transformation, while the old League was formed at the point of the flow of the social movement as it griped industry. Further, the league morphed through a bitter purge which took the form of a split and merging with the California Communist League in unison with the transformation taking place in the social movement.

"Revolution In The Air" - from what was stated in various reviews, attempts to explain the demise of the Young Communist without a grasp of the body of Marxist theory and the doctrine of the class struggle. Theory and doctrine are different categories as is the art of "capturing" the social movement.

"The New Communist Movement was historically trapped and could not escape a certain class configuration in American history as the social movement experienced transition. We were generated on the basis of the 1967 Rebellion against the state authority and not the movement of the petty bourgeois into the proletariat. That was our fate."

By the late mid 1970s after the various M-L parties and groups had been formed the new phase of struggle was expressed in Detroit in the electoral arena. The Freedom Now Party had failed in the early 1960s to realize its purpose, which was transformation of the electoral arena. The election of Coleman Young as Mayor in Detroit was based on an alignment of forces whose unity was based on dismantling the terrorist groups in the Police Department; the notorious Red Squad which kept everyone under surveillance and reconfiguring the entire DPD (Detroit Police Department) and its union.

The decade of the 1970s in Detroit is marked by intense social conflict, political assassination and political realignment. The Democratic Party and the UAW - an immense political force in the city and state, could not control this social movement, which broke out as the State of Siege Movement in the mid 70s against police terror. A demonstration was called by a section that had broken off from the old League different from those of us that became the Communist League, and brought over 5,000 people into the streets opposing Police Violence and demanding revolutionary discipline from the podium.

This movement centered around the leadership of Kenneth Cockrel Sr. was later organized as DARE (Detroit Alliance for a Rational Economy).

The masses in Detroit and the outlying area developed a sharp class instinct that not only elected Coleman Young who carried out his campaign promises and agreement with the Marxist and radicals, but also two publicly announced Marxist. Such class instinct meant that the Freedom Movement was imbued with class content, in as much as these elected candidates advocated socialism and public property relations.

In 1976 the Communist League - now the Communist Labor Party having merged with the Motor City Labor League locally and scattered political groupings nationally, launched its Vote Communist Campaign where the citizens were asked to sign petitions to get the Communist Labor Party on the ballot. The propaganda machine of the bourgeoisie could not halt this movement on the basis anti-communism, which in our country has always been tightly linked to white chauvinism. Roughly 25,000 authentic voter signatures were secured by campaigning at factory gates, shopping centers and anywhere more than two people gathered.

This effort had set the state for alternate political associations and groupings decidedly anti-communist such as the Democratic Socialist Organizing Committee and former UAW President Doug Fraser's attempt to form a "Progressive Alliance."

In 1978 three parties won ballot status, the Socialist Workers Party and the fascist U.S. Labour Party and Communist Labor Party. Here is a story worth telling but not now.

The point is that 1978-1980 represented a certain ebbing in the social movement, which has lasted almost 30 years. How could a Young Communist Movement thrive detached from this very real social movement?  Further the Young Communist Movement attempted to find it's bearing during the decade of the 1980 during a period of transition in the structure of capital and changes in social forces.

A law of transition governs communist groups and Marxist groupings of all kinds. Even today one occasionally encounter Marxist collectives passionately speaking of "wining over the workers" and industrial concentration during a period of time when the social forces poised to explode are concentrated in a sector of the proletariat increasingly outside industry.

The law of transition means that Marxist groups must purge themselves and recruit from new social forces or pass from the historical stage. At this point in time the league form of association is the only organizational form available for a serious revolutionary to conduct work. The Young communist were more than less ideological groups, destined to pass from the stage of history.


The New Communist Movement was historically trapped and could not escape a class configuration in American history and transitions in the social struggle.


Melvin P


More later.

--part1_f7.21bf4590.2abde60e_boundary-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 00:43:00 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 00:43:00 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tMvr-0006cJ-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 00:42:59 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tMvf-0007rF-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 00:42:47 -0600 Received: from imo-r05.mx.aol.com ([152.163.225.101]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17t75H-0001gy-00 for ; Sun, 22 Sep 2002 07:47:39 -0600 Received: from Waistline2@aol.com by imo-r05.mx.aol.com (mail_out_v34.10.) id w.163.14468679 (4196) for ; Sun, 22 Sep 2002 09:46:54 -0400 (EDT) From: Waistline2@aol.com Message-ID: <163.14468679.2abf23cd@aol.com> Subject: Re: [A-List] After thought- Rewrite To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="part1_163.14468679.2abf23cd_boundary" X-Mailer: AOL 7.0 for Windows US sub 10641 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sun, 22 Sep 2002 09:46:53 EDT Date: Sun, 22 Sep 2002 09:46:53 EDT --part1_163.14468679.2abf23cd_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit A friend read the Review of Reviews centered on the books "Revolution In the Air" and "The Future Is Up To Us," and stated the article was to theoretical, abstract and difficult for anyone that had not lived the period in question as an activist. He - actually him and his wife, stated that in the absence of a general understanding of the national colonial question in America, they doubted whether anyone would genuinely grasp why the 1967 Rebellion in Detroit represented a political juncture in the social movement. The following paragraph was pointed out as incoherent. >The New Communist Movement was not a communist movement at all but a movement within Marxism as the science of society, unable to reconcile the equality demand of the petty bourgeois black masses with the historical assertion of the proletarian revolution. No one can talk about the black masses as petty bourgeois except that sector of the Marxist movement from which I was raised and consolidated a distinct body of theory. "We can say what other cannot say" because of our peculiar development. The New Communist Movement was historically trapped and could not escape a class configuration in American history. We were generated on the basis of the 1967 Rebellion against the state authority and not the movement of the petty bourgeois into the proletariat. That was our fate. < I was then asked to rewrite this paragraph as an article. Below is a rewrite. The word revolution primarily means changes in the economic structure of society. Without this understanding societal change makes no sense. Changes take place in the economy - how peoples are organized to produce, using specific tools and machinery and these changes forces changes in the political arena - the laws that regulate how people interact. The political revolutions of the 20th century have the common content of being the social response to the transformation from agriculture to industry. In the process of millions of people being transformed from agricultural laborers to industrial and service workers, agriculture itself underwent changes as new instruments of agricultural production were put in use and science developed better methods of agricultural production. This process of restructuring agriculture during the period of industrialization has in the past been called the mechanization of agriculture although society has entered yet another phase of revolution called the biogenetic revolution. The mechanization of agriculture rendered the labor of millions of sharecroppers unneeded: millions were tractor off the land. This process of mechanization of agriculture picked up steam in the early 1940s and was actually the economic revolution needed to complete the political revolution that was called the Civil War in America. The political consequences of the mechanization of agriculture unfolded over the course of several decades. The uprooting of millions of people from the land as sharecroppers and their movement into the proletariat - industrial infrastructure, is understood as a social movement of the petty bourgeoisie - the small producer, many whom attempted to eke out an existence on the land. Sharecropping is a business even if it does not sound like it. Sharecroppers had a contract with their employer - landlord or land holder, to surrender a certain portion of the crop they grew and the sharecropper could keep another portion of the crop and dispose of it - sell it, for himself. Despite the wretched poverty of the sharecropper this economic relations creates a certain attitude about production and having ones "own thing" as a basis of exchange and making money. The sharecropper is a producer and owner of a commodity that he can dispose of on his behalf, even if the merchant and store owners is cheating the hell out of you. The sharecropper as an economic category is what we generally call an economic class. This class is referred to as the petit - small, bourgeoisie because of its role in the production, which is that of a worker and owner of a product that he can depose of-sell, on the market on behalf of himself as the basis for exchange or money to buy other products. The sharecropper is different from the industrial worker who can in no way claim ownership of the product he produces; much less dispose of these products on is behalf. The revolution in agriculture changed the economic South of America. Modern technique of farming rendered the labor of millions of sharecropper unneeded in agricultural production. The sharecropper as an economic class was liberated from the land by being kicked off. Being kicked off the land or liberated is also called being declassed because you are kicked out of an economic class. No one denies that this declassed group of millions were black and white small commodity producers - together roughly 11 million. Being licked off the land - declassed, meant being compelled to get another job or means to take part in buying and selling. This meant seeking work in the industrial economy. As millions of sharecroppers entered the industrial workforce they faced barriers. In our country many of these small producers migrated to the larger cities within the South as a region, during a period of history where Yankee financial capital was implementing its Southern Strategy or relocating industry South. Others migrated to the North. For 5 million sharecroppers the obvious barrier of exclusion was color discrimination, although it was not the only barrier. Alongside and intertwined with the migration throughout the South as a region was the mass migration to the industrial Midwest. While every section of the Marxist movement, including the Young Communist more than less rejects what in our history is called Marxism and the National Colonial Question as applied to the South as a region and the former slave holding area, "our" sector of Marxism finds it impossible to avoid the colonial reality. Although it takes several generations for the colonial "Anglo American national minority" from the former slave holding South to successfully assimilate the Anglo of the Yankee, he faces the institutional barriers that regulate him to the bottom of the social ladder along with the Southern black. The demand of the Anglo-American national minority worker from the South did not and could not appear as the cry for freedom that expresses the demand for quality of the blacks. Rather, his demand is expressed as a cry for justice and fairness. The salient feature of the fundamental barrier this group of declassed sharecroppers faced was segregation - legal, illegal and extra legal. Thus the demand for equality and equal access was the cutting edge of this social movement that was created by changes in the technological basis of agricultural production. The social movement to break the barriers preventing the integration of the sharecropper - the former petit bourgeois producer, into society at large was called the Civil Rights Movement. The most violent edge of the discrimination towards the black has always been the South. No one denies that blacks face discrimination throughout the breath of America. Yet there is a difference between North and South based on how people engage production to acquire the money needed to live. The stifling air of institutionalized discrimination in the imperial center (North) is a stopgap measure that holds the immigrant colonial workers in his colonial relationship no matter what his skin color. This is true for the Irish worker in England, the Algerian worker in France and most certainly true of the petty bourgeois black and white masses that migrated North. The battle to break the barrier of color discrimination contains junctures and turning points that exploded into the public arena with the Civil War in America. During the 1940s, 50s and 60s this struggle produced anti-discrimination rulings, anti-lynch law and legislation for open housing and Voting Rights. What began as a struggle for partial victory against segregation became a social movement in distinct stages. The Bus boycott in Montgomery Alabama was the catalyst to transform an anti-segregation and anti-terror movement into a social movement expressed as the Freedom Movement. Freedom meant more than a cup of coffee or a bus ride. This freedom movement expressed a new juncture when it exploded in Birmingham Alabama in 1963 as the outbreak of rioting. Birmingham Alabama - the South's historic area of steel production, was a spark indicating a shift away from nonviolence as a strategy. The turning point in the social movement came in 1965 with the Watts Rebellion. The masses not only rebelled but shot the misleader from the podium for advocating passive resistance. The Watts Rebellion is best understood in the context of the world anti-colonial revolt and on the level of strategic thinking represented the encirclement of US imperialism by the fighting colonial masses and their "national minority" brethren in the imperial centers. The Watts Rebellion manifested the explosion of new social forces and rendered all the revolutionary groups in America obsolete because these groups could not organized leaders from this social force. This inability to shift is called a disconnect on the part of all the Marxist groups and Communist associations who could not "turn" from their historic bases of support in the working class movement. In respect to the Communist Party USA (CPUSA), it had abolished and abandoned its Southern organizations in 1948 as a compromise to the old Roosevelt Coalition and with this compromise liquidated the Marxist conception of the national colonial question as codified in the documents of the Third International. With the abolition of the Marxist approach to the national-colonial Question, the movement of these colonial and national minority masses was understood as a racial movement seeking to abolish "white skin privilege" and its economic roots could not be disclosed and remain misunderstood to this very day. The disconnect with the theoretical bases of the historic Marxist movement was fundamental but not apparent to many revolutionaries. The contradictory motion of the working class - North and South, which appeared as black combatants demanding freedom, could not be reconciled and combined with the logic of the motion of the trade unions. The trade union movement is of course a sector of the labor movement, its organized section. Further, and with few exceptions the trade unions leaders positions of leadership - elections, were based on the disfranchisement of the black workers, legal and illegal. These former colonial petit bourgeois masses now in industry - not just the trade unions but the labor movement as a whole, could not escape the second-class citizenship imposed on all colonials who immigrate/migrate to the imperial center. In America the competition between the lower sections of the working class evolved on the basis of importation of millions of workers from Europe and exclusion of the blacks, more than less held in the economic category called sharecropping. Hence, the color factor remained the form of the social struggle but not its multi-character class content. The social movement demanding Freedom housed the specific demands and aspirations of the blacks North and South and across class lines because the leading slogan of a social movement is always greater than its parts. One can properly speak of the black community as a more than less cohesive political entity in this period of time: from the turn of the past century up into the 1970s. State sponsored violence, illegal and extralegal terror held this community together. What has in fact shaped the African American people as a people and held them together has been the violence and terror of the whites and not some peculiar development in commodity production. Then something else happened. Birmingham 1963, Watts 1965 and then Detroit 1967. Detroit exploded in an orgy of violence, forcing a fundamental realignment of all political institutions. The 1967 Rebellion in Detroit did not just happen "out of the blue." In 1965 a small rebellion had broken out on Detroit's East Side, with small groups of militants arming themselves against the police. The catalyst for this outbreak was the murder of a prostitute by the police. The Detroit Rebellions were not the logic of the movement of this declassed mass of sharecroppers seeking entry into industry - that is the class instinct of the petit bourgeois producers seeking his "own thing," but an assertion of the black community, which was profoundly industrial proletarian and working class objecting to police violence, police authority and social exclusion. The 67 Rebellion broke out in the Black business district of Detroit - 12th Street, and this district had evolved because whites would not provide certain services to blacks. The catalyst for the Rebellion was the police raid of an "after hour joint" or what is called a "blind pig" or "speak easy" in another era. This was in fact the black community. This community as such no longer exists, although there are neighborhoods throughout America more than less black. What has changed is the class character of these neighborhoods of African Americans. To summarized. What began as a social movement generated on the basis of the mechanization of agriculture uprooting and affecting 11 million sharecroppers exhibited phase change. Of the 11 million sharecroppers roughly 5 million were black - descendants of latifundia slavery. What looked like a black movement and in fact was the Negro Peoples Freedom (Liberation) Movement was a social movement generated on the basis of changes in the mode of production. The segregation that pinned 11 million sharecroppers to back breaking toil and exploitation by large landowners under the thumb of finance capital was institutionalized on the basis of the super exploitation, subjugation and humiliation of the black, no matter what his status within the multinational state of America. In terms of American history, what arose in the Civil Rights was an absurd repeat of the immediate aftermath of the Civil War - at a higher level; an intersection of interest between Northern financial-industrial capital and the freedom demand of the black millions seeking an end to segregation, political powerlessness, fascistic terror and economic exclusion. As this petty bourgeois movement was being driven forward on the basis of the reform of capitalist production relations it intersected with and was part of broader complex changes in American society and the world. The bottom line was that the political South needed to be defeated to allow for the economic reform of capital. Detroit however, was very different from every area of the colonial South. Prior to the 1967 Rebellion blacks were seeking a political voice as expressed in the formation of the Freedom Now Party of Michigan, which of course was based almost exclusively in Detroit. The Freedom Now Party of Michigan was of necessity different from the Freedom Now Party of Mississippi. In Mississippi the struggle evolved on the basis of conflict with the large landowners. What large landowners are there in Detroit? Detroit is not agricultural. Detroit was industrial working class in the most black and white terms. A second generation of black industrial workers was a specific feature of the social circumstances of Detroit's black community, which included cities like Inkster. Inkster or as it is understood - Ink spot, was created by old man Henry Ford to house his black workers. Who was the Freedom Now Party in Detroit fighting if not the political superstructure, the trade union leaders and the barriers in the labor movement? A small group of blacks galvanized on the basis of the 1965 mini-riot had been inspired by the revolution in Cuba and previously visited Cuba to express their support. Some of these folks were also involved with the Freedom Now Party in the pre 67 era and formed small collectives including study groups focusing on Karl Marx Capital and the military writings of Chairman Mao. These radicals and revolutionaries were destined to evolve along a different fault line than the Young Communist Movement, which more than less trace its roots to the Students for a Democratic Society (SDS). What can be stated without fear of refutation, is that the old League of Revolutionary Black Workers not only did not evolve on the West Coast, but most certainly did not evolve from the SDS. Many of these combatants who would later form the League rejected the old CPUSA slogan "Black and White Unite and Fight," which would later be picked up by the so-called New or Young Communist whose disconnect with the old communist movement and any specific sector of the labor movement, prevented them from understanding the origin of the slogan and what it meant. The disconnect with American Marxism as consolidated by its historic guardian in the shape of the Communist Party USA, was widened as it clung to old formula and put forth the most absurd political programs and slogans, expressed later in the 1970s in books like Henry Winston's Strategy for a Black Agenda and various calls for an anti Monopoly Coalition. At this late date the power of hindsight can unravel the obvious. During the 30s and 40s the Black were in the main a mass of sharecroppers and the white were the proletariat proper. "Black and White Unite and Fight," was not and could not be the leading slogan of the Negro Peoples Freedom movement. "Black and White Unite and Fight," during the era of the formation of industrial unions was acknowledgment of the difference in the class content and character of the labor movement. The expressed desire of the African American masses has always been for inclusion into the social, political and economic fabric of American society. There have been bitter arguments over strategy and tactics but never the expressed goal of inclusion. Nevertheless, a social movement in the form of the Young Communist Movement, lacking any connections and roots in any sector of the labor movement, disconnected from the history of American Marxism and generated on the basis of bourgeois democratic currents gripping the youth movement, reveals itself to in fact be not a social movement but an ideological current, no matter how lofty its goals. Rather than condemn the historically obsolete and tragicYoung Communist Movement - whose rise and fall I personally observed and interacted with, the effort is to unravel its logic so this chapter of our history will not be repeated. The Young Communist Movement was not even a real political movement but an ideological current that died rapidly in the changing currents of American society. End Part 1 Melvin P --part1_163.14468679.2abf23cd_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit A friend read the Review of Reviews centered on the books "Revolution In the Air" and "The Future Is Up To Us," and stated the article was to theoretical, abstract and difficult for anyone that had not lived the period in question as an activist.

He - actually him and his wife, stated that in the absence of a general understanding of the national colonial question in America, they doubted whether anyone would genuinely grasp why the 1967 Rebellion in Detroit represented a political juncture in the social movement.

The following paragraph was pointed out as incoherent.

>The New Communist Movement was not a communist movement at all but a movement within Marxism as the science of society, unable to reconcile the equality demand of the petty bourgeois black masses with the historical assertion of the proletarian revolution. No one can talk about the black masses as petty bourgeois except that sector of the Marxist movement from which I was raised and consolidated a distinct body of theory. "We can say what other cannot say" because of our peculiar development. The New Communist Movement was historically trapped and could not escape a class configuration in American history. We were generated on the basis of the 1967 Rebellion against the state authority and not the movement of the petty bourgeois into the proletariat. That was our fate. <

I was then asked to rewrite this paragraph as an article. Below is a rewrite.

The word revolution primarily means changes in the economic structure of society. Without this understanding societal change makes no sense. Changes take place in the economy - how peoples are organized to produce, using specific tools and machinery and these changes forces changes in the political arena - the laws that regulate how people interact.

The political revolutions of the 20th century have the common content of being the social response to the transformation from agriculture to industry. In the process of millions of people being transformed from agricultural laborers to industrial and service workers, agriculture itself underwent changes as new instruments of agricultural production were put in use and science developed better methods of agricultural production. This process of restructuring agriculture during the period of industrialization has in the past been called the mechanization of agriculture although society has entered yet another phase of revolution called the biogenetic revolution.

The mechanization of agriculture rendered the labor of millions of sharecroppers unneeded: millions were tractor off the land. This process of mechanization of agriculture picked up steam in the early 1940s and was actually the economic revolution needed to complete the political revolution that was called the Civil War in America.

The political consequences of the mechanization of agriculture unfolded over the course of several decades. The uprooting of millions of people from the land as sharecroppers and their movement into the proletariat - industrial infrastructure, is understood as a social movement of the petty bourgeoisie - the small producer, many whom attempted to eke out an existence on the land.

Sharecropping is a business even if it does not sound like it. Sharecroppers had a contract with their employer - landlord or land holder, to surrender a certain portion of the crop they grew and the sharecropper could keep another portion of the crop and dispose of it - sell it, for himself. Despite the wretched poverty of the sharecropper this economic relations creates a certain attitude about production and having ones "own thing" as a basis of exchange and making money. The sharecropper is a producer and owner of a commodity that he can dispose of on his behalf, even if the merchant and store owners is cheating the hell out of you.

The sharecropper as an economic category is what we generally call an economic class. This class is referred to as the petit - small, bourgeoisie because of its role in the production, which is that of a worker and owner of a product that he can depose of-sell, on the market on behalf of himself as the basis for exchange or money to buy other products. The sharecropper is different from the industrial worker who can in no way claim ownership of the product he produces; much less dispose of these products on is behalf.

The revolution in agriculture changed the economic South of America. Modern technique of farming rendered the labor of millions of sharecropper unneeded in agricultural production. The sharecropper as an economic class was liberated from the land by being kicked off. Being kicked off the land or liberated is also called being declassed because you are kicked out of an economic class.

No one denies that this declassed group of millions were black and white small commodity producers - together roughly 11 million. Being licked off the land - declassed, meant being compelled to get another job or means to take part in buying and selling. This meant seeking work in the industrial economy. As millions of sharecroppers entered the industrial workforce they faced barriers.

In our country many of these small producers migrated to the larger cities within the South as a region, during a period of history where Yankee financial capital was implementing its Southern Strategy or relocating industry South. Others migrated to the North.

For 5 million sharecroppers the obvious barrier of exclusion was color discrimination, although it was not the only barrier. Alongside and intertwined with the migration throughout the South as a region was the mass migration to the industrial Midwest.

While every section of the Marxist movement, including the Young Communist more than less rejects what in our history is called Marxism and the National Colonial Question as applied to the South as a region and the former slave holding area, "our" sector of Marxism finds it impossible to avoid the colonial reality. Although it takes several generations for the colonial "Anglo American national minority" from the former slave holding South to successfully assimilate the Anglo of the Yankee, he faces the institutional barriers that regulate him to the bottom of the social ladder along with the Southern black. The demand of the Anglo-American national minority worker from the South did not and could not appear as the cry for freedom that expresses the demand for quality of the blacks. Rather, his demand is expressed as a cry for justice and fairness.

The salient feature of the fundamental barrier this group of declassed sharecroppers faced was segregation - legal, illegal and extra legal.  Thus the demand for equality and equal access was the cutting edge of this social movement that was created by changes in the technological basis of agricultural production. The social movement to break the barriers preventing the integration of the sharecropper - the former petit bourgeois producer, into society at large was called the Civil Rights Movement.

The most violent edge of the discrimination towards the black has always been the South. No one denies that blacks face discrimination throughout the breath of America. Yet there is a difference between North and South based on how people engage production to acquire the money needed to live.

The stifling air of institutionalized discrimination in the imperial center (North) is a stopgap measure that holds the immigrant colonial workers in his colonial relationship no matter what his skin color. This is true for the Irish worker in England, the Algerian worker in France and most certainly true of the petty bourgeois black and white masses that migrated North.

The battle to break the barrier of color discrimination contains junctures and turning points that exploded into the public arena with the Civil War in America. During the 1940s, 50s and 60s this struggle produced anti-discrimination rulings, anti-lynch law and legislation for open housing and Voting Rights. What began as a struggle for partial victory against segregation became a social movement in distinct stages. The Bus boycott in Montgomery Alabama was the catalyst to transform an anti-segregation and anti-terror movement into a social movement expressed as the Freedom Movement. Freedom meant more than a cup of coffee or a bus ride. This freedom movement expressed a new juncture when it exploded in Birmingham Alabama in 1963 as the outbreak of rioting. 

Birmingham Alabama - the South's historic area of steel production, was a spark indicating a shift away from nonviolence as a strategy. The turning point in the social movement came in 1965 with the Watts Rebellion. The masses not only rebelled but shot the misleader from the podium for advocating passive resistance. The Watts Rebellion is best understood in the context of the world anti-colonial revolt and on the level of strategic thinking represented the encirclement of US imperialism by the fighting colonial masses and their "national minority" brethren in the imperial centers.

The Watts Rebellion manifested the explosion of new social forces and rendered all the revolutionary groups in America obsolete because these groups could not organized leaders from this social force. This inability to shift is called a disconnect on the part of all the Marxist groups and Communist associations who could not "turn" from their historic bases of support in the working class movement. In respect to the Communist Party USA (CPUSA), it had abolished and abandoned its Southern organizations in 1948 as a compromise to the old Roosevelt Coalition and with this compromise liquidated the Marxist conception of the national colonial question as codified in the documents of the Third International.

With the abolition of the Marxist approach to the national-colonial Question, the movement of these colonial and national minority masses was understood as a racial movement seeking to abolish "white skin privilege" and its economic roots could not be disclosed and remain misunderstood to this very day. The disconnect with the theoretical bases of the historic Marxist movement was fundamental but not apparent to many revolutionaries.

The contradictory motion of the working class - North and South, which appeared as black combatants demanding freedom, could not be reconciled and combined with the logic of the motion of the trade unions. The trade union movement is of course a sector of the labor movement, its organized section. Further, and with few exceptions the trade unions leaders positions of leadership - elections, were based on the disfranchisement of the black workers, legal and illegal.

These former colonial petit bourgeois masses now in industry - not just the trade unions but the labor movement as a whole, could not escape the second-class citizenship imposed on all colonials who immigrate/migrate to the imperial center. In America the competition between the lower sections of the working class evolved on the basis of importation of millions of workers from Europe and exclusion of the blacks, more than less held in the economic category called sharecropping. Hence, the color factor  remained the form of the social struggle but not its multi-character class content.

The social movement demanding Freedom housed the specific demands and aspirations of the blacks North and South and across class lines because the leading slogan of a social movement is always greater than its parts. One can properly speak of the black community as a more than less cohesive political entity in this period of time: from the turn of the past century up into the 1970s. State sponsored violence, illegal and extralegal terror held this community together. What has in fact shaped the African American people as a people and held them together has been the violence and terror of the whites and not some peculiar development in commodity production.

Then something else happened. Birmingham 1963, Watts 1965 and then Detroit 1967. Detroit exploded in an orgy of violence, forcing a fundamental realignment of all political institutions.

The 1967 Rebellion in Detroit did not just happen "out of the blue." In 1965 a small rebellion had broken out on Detroit's East Side, with small groups of militants arming themselves against the police. The catalyst for this outbreak was the murder of a prostitute by the police. The Detroit Rebellions were not the logic of the movement of this declassed mass of sharecroppers seeking entry into industry - that is the class instinct of the petit bourgeois producers seeking his "own thing," but an assertion of the black community, which was profoundly industrial proletarian and working class objecting to police violence, police authority and social exclusion.

The 67 Rebellion broke out in the Black business district of Detroit - 12th Street, and this district had evolved because whites would not provide certain services to blacks. The catalyst for the Rebellion was the police raid of an "after hour joint" or what is called a "blind pig" or "speak easy" in another era.

This was in fact the black community. This community as such no longer exists, although there are neighborhoods throughout America more than less black. What has changed is the class character of these neighborhoods of African Americans.  

To summarized. What began as a social movement generated on the basis of the mechanization of agriculture uprooting and affecting 11 million sharecroppers exhibited phase change. Of the 11 million sharecroppers roughly 5 million were black - descendants of latifundia slavery.  What looked like a black movement and in fact was the Negro Peoples Freedom (Liberation) Movement was a social movement generated on the basis of changes in the mode of production.

The segregation that pinned 11 million sharecroppers to back breaking toil and exploitation by large landowners under the thumb of finance capital was institutionalized on the basis of the super exploitation, subjugation and humiliation of the black, no matter what his status within the multinational state of America.  

In terms of American history, what arose in the Civil Rights was an absurd repeat of the immediate aftermath of the Civil War - at a higher level; an intersection of interest between Northern financial-industrial capital and the freedom demand of the black millions seeking an end to segregation, political powerlessness, fascistic terror and economic exclusion. As this petty bourgeois movement was being driven forward on the basis of the reform of capitalist production relations it intersected with and was part of broader complex changes in American society and the world. The bottom line was that the political South needed to be defeated to allow for the economic reform of capital.

Detroit however, was very different from every area of the colonial South.

Prior to the 1967 Rebellion blacks were seeking a political voice as expressed in the formation of the Freedom Now Party of Michigan, which of course was based almost exclusively in Detroit. The Freedom Now Party of Michigan was of necessity different from the Freedom Now Party of Mississippi. In Mississippi the struggle evolved on the basis of conflict with the large landowners. What large landowners are there in Detroit? Detroit is not agricultural.

Detroit was industrial working class in the most black and white terms. A second generation of black industrial workers was a specific feature of the social circumstances of Detroit's black community, which included cities like Inkster. Inkster or as it is understood - Ink spot, was created by old man Henry Ford to house his black workers. Who was the Freedom Now Party in Detroit fighting if not the political superstructure, the trade union leaders and the barriers in the labor movement?

A small group of blacks galvanized on the basis of the 1965 mini-riot had been inspired by the revolution in Cuba and previously visited Cuba to express their support. Some of these folks were also involved with the Freedom Now Party in the pre 67 era and formed small collectives including study groups focusing on Karl Marx Capital and the military writings of Chairman Mao.

These radicals and revolutionaries were destined to evolve along a different fault line than the Young Communist Movement, which more than less trace its roots to the Students for a Democratic Society (SDS). What can be stated without fear of refutation, is that the old League of Revolutionary Black Workers not only did not evolve on the West Coast, but most certainly did not evolve from the SDS.

Many of these combatants who would later form the League rejected the old CPUSA slogan "Black and White Unite and Fight," which would later be picked up by the so-called New or Young Communist whose disconnect with the old communist movement and any specific sector of the labor movement, prevented them from understanding the origin of the slogan and what it meant. The disconnect with American Marxism as consolidated by its historic guardian in the shape of the Communist Party USA, was widened as it clung to old formula and put forth the most absurd political programs and slogans, expressed later in the 1970s in books like Henry Winston's Strategy for a Black Agenda and various calls for an anti Monopoly Coalition.

At this late date the power of hindsight can unravel the obvious. During the 30s and 40s the Black were in the main a mass of sharecroppers and the white were the proletariat proper.  "Black and White Unite and Fight," was not and could not be the leading slogan of the Negro Peoples Freedom movement. "Black and White Unite and Fight," during the era of the formation of industrial unions was acknowledgment of the difference in the class content and character of the labor movement.

The expressed desire of the African American masses has always been for inclusion into the social, political and economic fabric of American society. There have been bitter arguments over strategy and tactics but never the expressed goal of inclusion.

Nevertheless, a social movement in the form of the Young Communist Movement, lacking any connections and roots in any sector of the labor movement, disconnected from the history of American Marxism and generated on the basis of bourgeois democratic currents gripping the youth movement, reveals itself to in fact be not a social movement but an ideological current, no matter how lofty its goals.

Rather than condemn the historically obsolete and tragicYoung Communist Movement - whose rise and fall I personally observed and interacted with, the effort is to unravel its logic so this chapter of our history will not be repeated. The Young Communist Movement was not even a real political movement but an ideological current that died rapidly in the changing currents of American society.

End Part 1


Melvin P
--part1_163.14468679.2abf23cd_boundary-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 00:43:20 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 00:43:20 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tMwC-0006cU-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 00:43:20 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tMw1-0007rd-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 00:43:10 -0600 Received: from tomts25.bellnexxia.net ([209.226.175.188] helo=tomts25-srv.bellnexxia.net) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tIwD-00069l-00 for ; Sun, 22 Sep 2002 20:27:05 -0600 Received: from 6SM5Y01 ([64.229.179.61]) by tomts25-srv.bellnexxia.net (InterMail vM.5.01.04.19 201-253-122-122-119-20020516) with SMTP id <20020923022659.QUXP1398.tomts25-srv.bellnexxia.net@6SM5Y01>; Sun, 22 Sep 2002 22:26:59 -0400 Message-ID: <03f901c262a8$c7f47630$3db3e540@6SM5Y01> From: "Leo Panitch" To: "Keaney Michael" , "A-List \(E-mail\)" Cc: "James Petras" , "Henry Veltmeyer" , , "Wright, George" , , "Jessop, Robert" , "James Cypher" , "Ian Gough" , "G. William Domhoff" , "Clyde Barrow" , "Colin Crouch" , , "Barbara Laurence" , "Bertell Ollman" References: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_03F6_01C26287.409E0500" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 Subject: [A-List] (no subject) Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Reply-To: "Leo Panitch" List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sun, 22 Sep 2002 22:27:36 -0400 Date: Sun, 22 Sep 2002 22:27:36 -0400 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_03F6_01C26287.409E0500 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Please circulate this widely and encourage applications. 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//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// ////////////////////////AQD+/wMKAAD/////BgkCAAAAAADAAAAAAAAARhgAAABNaWNyb3Nv ZnQgV29yZCBEb2N1bWVudAAKAAAATVNXb3JkRG9jABAAAABXb3JkLkRvY3VtZW50LjgA9DmycQAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA= ------=_NextPart_000_03F6_01C26287.409E0500-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 01:03:30 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 01:03:30 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tNFi-0006hi-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 01:03:30 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tNFW-00084I-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 01:03:18 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tNEo-000849-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 01:02:35 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8N714d21468 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:01:04 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8N713F21406 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:01:03 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message-ID: content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Left Book Club: Zed titles Thread-Index: AcJgtLYNrBu60z7HTDigbCqJ+C1zrACGb1YQ From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Left Book Club: Zed titles Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:03:58 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:03:58 +0300 A-list subscribers, The Left Book Club by the A-list officially launches with the following titles courtesy of Zed Books. As was recently discussed, Zed operates a differential pricing policy enabling purchasers from the South to acquire books at more affordable rates. These are indicated below: =20 > > HARRY SHUTT, New Democracy - US$17.50 - CLUB PRICE: $12 (South: $6.00) > > JAMES PETRAS AND HENRY VELTMEYER, Globalisation Unmasked - US$19.95 - CLUB PRICE: $14.00 (South: $7.00) > > WILLIAM BLUM, Rogue State - US$17.50 - CLUB PRICE: $12.00 (South: $6.00) > > ROBERT BIEL, The New Imperialism - US$27.50 -CLUB PRICE: $18.00 (South: $9.00) > > JOEL KOVEL, The Enemy of Nature - US$19.95 (not $15) - CLUB PRICE: $14.00 (South: $7.00) =20 Zed will pay for postage and packaging. The offer on these titles closes on 31 December 2002. For further details on these and other Zed titles see http://www.zedbooks.demon.co.uk/home.htm In order to take advantage of this offer, reply to me offlist at michael.keaney@mbs.fi This is simply to verify that you are indeed an A-list subscriber. I will forward your details to Zed, who will then provide you with payment details. Happy reading, Michael Keaney From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 01:49:26 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 01:49:26 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tNyA-0006u7-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 01:49:26 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tNy2-0008LS-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 01:49:18 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tNxZ-0008LJ-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 01:48:49 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8N7lJg30823 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:47:19 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8N7lHF30705 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:47:17 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message-ID: content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: [A-List] FW: Web Site Lists 'Anti-Israel' Professors Thread-Index: AcJgxmH16yoMGGmvQBW9hP84SSM7WQCCPImw From: "Keaney Michael" To: Subject: [A-List] Web Site Lists 'Anti-Israel' Professors Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:50:12 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:50:12 +0300 Jim C. forwarded: Web Site Lists Professors Accused of Anti-Israel Bias and Asks Students to Report on Them =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D By SCOTT SMALLWOOD Chronicle of Higher Education Thursday, September 19, 2002 In an attempt to combat what it sees as anti-Israel bias in academe, the Middle East Forum has created a new Web site that lists faculty members it is monitoring and allows students to report on their professors. ----- MK: This is something we should monitor closely, not least for the potential ramifications it has for us as users of the Utah facilities. Just after Sept 11 last year Lou Proyect mentioned the likelihood of academic resources being under attack from right wing forces. Now, thanks to people like Lynne Cheney and Daniel Pipes that is coming to pass in the US. The sheer scale of the Israel lobby's efforts is quite immense. At the moment of course their aims run parallel to, if not coincide with, those of primarily US capital interests determined to secure guaranteed oil supplies. We should also not underrate the influence of the Christian Right. An interesting research question would be where this convergence ends and the potential fissures in this coalition begin. Somewhere down the line it's not too difficult to envisage an anti-semitic backlash, since the extent of Israel lobby activities plays directly into the racist folklore of a global Jewish conspiracy. To a certain extent there are already rumblings of this nature in Germany and elsewhere in Europe, which is only feeding the current EU/US tension -- witness the performance of J=FCrgen M=F6llemann, no. 2 of the Free Democrats during the recent German election campaign. Together with Schr=F6der's refusal to back war on Iraq (always reversible, of course), this suggests a deep unease regarding Israel and the US that transcends traditional centre/right politics in Europe. Is there a similar movement within the US itself? Sen. Joseph McCarthy's big tactical error was to target the US military, his single-issue campaign having long since yielded diminishing marginal returns to the US national security state. How far can the Israel lobby go before it goes beyond the tolerance levels of its coalition partners? Michael Keaney From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 01:54:23 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 01:54:23 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tO2x-0006wD-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 01:54:23 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tO2s-0008T8-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 01:54:18 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tO1v-0008Sz-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 01:53:19 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8N7pnq03257 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:51:49 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8N7plF03194 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:51:47 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message-ID: content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: [A-List] US: NY Fed Calls For CEO Pay Cuts Thread-Index: AcJgyT7EgQ85N1C/T3OSynOV5MnfbgCDIn/Q From: "Keaney Michael" To: Subject: [A-List] Mexico: income distribution shock Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:54:43 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:54:43 +0300 Sabri forwards: September 20: US - NY Fed Calls For CEO Pay Cuts Location: New York Author: Tim Jones, RiskCenter Correspondent Date: Friday, September 20, 2002 New York Federal Reserve President William McDonough has called on US corporate executives to take pay cuts, saying their salary packages are bloated and morally hard to justify. ----- Others elsewhere are having similar difficulties in even more polarised circumstances: "A study released this month indicated that top Mexican executives earn 124 times more than ordinary workers. In the US the disparity is 27 times." Outrage as Mexico's super-rich flaunt their tacky lifestyles Jo Tuckman in Mexico City Sunday September 15, 2002 The Observer Mexicans are mostly fatalistic about the inequalities plaguing their country, but a new coffee-table book revealing the arrogance and extravagance of the extremely wealthy has caused outrage. Ricas y Famosas (Rich and Famous) shows the wives, the daughters and the lovers of the country's mega-wealthy striking provocative, defiant, sometimes kittenish and always unabashed poses in extraordinarily opulent surroundings. But rather than a glimpse of the lives of the lucky, the book has become notorious as a biopsy of one of Mexico's many malignancies. The controversy comes as the country is supposed to be moving towards greater equality after 71 years of one-party rule by the notoriously corrupt and self-serving Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, that ended in December 2000. 'The lives of these rich women,' said political analyst Lorenzo Meyer, 'take place in a morally unacceptable island...surrounded and nourished by historical Mexican poverty.' Meyer is one of the many normally sober commentators who are now reaching for words like grotesque, vulgar, obscene and decadent in their newspaper columns and on prime-time TV. With more than half the population living in poverty and =A375 a week considered a good wage, the class tension sparked by such unblushing celebration of privilege might seem predictable. But it caught those involved by surprise. Publishers expected the first-edition run of 4,000 to last six months, but it sold out within two weeks of being taken up by the media. Many shops found that they had under-ordered. 'We got it totally wrong,' said Lu=EDs Losada, who works at a bookshop in a middle-class area. 'We didn't think it would sell very much around here, as the photos are rather ugly.' Photographer Daniela Rossell, 29, the book's creator, said: 'Everybody knows that there is a lot of wealth accumulated in Mexican homes, but we aren't used to looking at it as well.' The women pictured all signed forms allowing publication, blissfully unaware that they would be transformed into hate figures. Instead, their brazen pouts and postures are testament to the esteem they hold for their lifestyle. 'They were happy with the way they looked,' Rossell said. Despite its relative social calm compared to much of Latin America today, Mexico's wealthiest can no longer consider themselves to be untouchable. Most of the women pictured belong to the clans that ruled Mexico and built fortunes during the PRI regime, formed in the wake of the 1910 Revolution. Last week's edition of the leading news magazine Proceso ran a cover feature on the book, entitled 'The granddaughters of the Revolution'. But, according to author Guadalupe Loaeza, while the decadence of the PRI has been unveiled, 'decadence is not going out of style' under the first post-PRI government, headed by President Vicente Fox. In fact, the furore over the book is due in part to growing impatience for social changes that Fox tapped to win the presidential elections two years ago, but has yet to satisfy. A study released this month indicated that top Mexican executives earn 124 times more than ordinary workers. In the US the disparity is 27 times. Yet this is not the furtive product of paparazzi who sneaked behind the walls to expose debauchery. Rossell comes from a moneyed background, beginning her project with photographs of family and friends, and is shaken by the controversy. She now avoids public appearances, declines almost all interviews and no longer even listens to the accusations of class traitor left on her answering machine. 'I think if I had really thought about the reaction I wouldn't have done it. I am getting so much grief, but they don't understand that I am not responsible for the reaction.' And, Rossell insists, she never intended to set up her peers to ridicule, and even feels she gave a voice to some trapped within a patriarchal, as well as a golden, cage. Few share her vision. The commentators who have not spat fire over what her work reveals about skewed wealth distribution have poured scorn on a world where tacky is the dominant aesthetic. 'The money itself is not as offensive as the way it is used,' said Loaeza, who made her name satirising a more demure part of the upper class to which she belongs - a part, she says, that does not venerate stuffed animals, cuddly toys and gold-plated furniture held up by statues of black slaves. 'It so kitsch, so ugly and common, so lamentable in a country like Mexico where there is so much (artistic) wealth and history.' From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 02:18:31 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 02:18:31 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tOQJ-00071L-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 02:18:31 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tOQA-00006k-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 02:18:22 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tOPM-00006b-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 02:17:32 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8N8G2902968 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 11:16:02 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8N8G1F02896 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 11:16:01 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message-ID: content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Cyber-Sabotage?? Thread-Index: AcJhft+8OoY1VE8YT0WyxGr+trdNLQBWiexg From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US state: the new McCarthyism Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 11:18:57 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 11:18:57 +0300 Forwarded from Lou Proyect: NY Times, Sept. 21, 2002 Harvard President Sees Rise in Anti-Semitism on Campus By KAREN W. ARENSON CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Sept. 20 -- Harvard University's president, Lawrence=20 H. Summers, used a quiet prayer meeting on the first day of classes here this week to condemn what he termed growing anti-Semitism at Harvard and elsewhere. But while he labeled his remarks unofficial, they are setting off=20 ripples on this campus, where students and professors have demanded that Harvard remove all Israeli investments from its endowment. While Mr. Summers has drawn praise in some quarters for taking a stand,=20 some in the academic community accused him of shutting off discussion. "We are essentially being told there can be no debate," said John Assad, an assistant professor of neurobiology at Harvard medical school who=20 signed the Harvard divestment petition. "This is the ugliest statement=20 imaginable to paint critics as anti-Semitic." Others, however, praised Mr. Summers for stepping into the debate. "His remarks were very important," said Abraham H. Foxman, national=20 director of the Anti-Defamation League. "What's frightening is that=20 we've been seeing the rise in anti-Semitism again, and there are so few=20 people willing to stand up and say anything." Mr. Summers, who described himself in his speech as "Jewish, identified=20 but hardly devout," declined to comment today, saying he wanted his=20 remarks to stand on their own. In his morning prayer address on Tuesday in Memorial Church, Mr. Summers said he saw anti-Semitic actions on the rise in academic communities=20 around the world. "Serious and thoughtful people are advocating and taking actions that=20 are anti-Semitic in their effect if not their intent," said Mr. Summers, referring both to the push for divestment and to actions by student=20 organizations at Harvard and other campuses to raise money for groups=20 found to have ties to terrorist groups. "Where anti-Semitism and views that are profoundly anti-Israeli have=20 traditionally been the primary preserve of poorly educated right-wing=20 populists," he added, "profoundly anti-Israel views are increasingly=20 finding support in progressive intellectual communities." His speech, which was reported first in The Harvard Crimson, is posted=20 on Mr. Summers's Web site... (http://president.harvard.edu/speeches/2002/morningprayers.html). Mr. Summers is known for his outspokenness. In the last year, he has been in a public dispute with members of Harvard's Afro-American studies department. One professor, Cornel West, left Harvard for Princeton after Mr. Summers urged him to serve as a leader in tamping down grade inflation and encouraged him to focus more on his scholarly work. Mr. Summers said on Tuesday that he was making his remarks "not as president of the university but as a concerned member of our community." But Taha Abdul-Basser, a graduate student in the department of Near Eastern languages and civilization and a member of the Harvard Islamic Society, questioned whether it was possible to separate the statements from the office. "I understood his comment that he wished to be understood as an individual speaking, rather than as president, but I doubt that everyone who listened to the speech or read it will be able to make that distinction," Mr. Abdul-Basser said. "And I was saddened to see that evidently support of the divestment campaign was being equated with something as ugly as anti-Semitism. Some of the professors who supported the campaign said they saw a difference between the two, and I certainly do, too." While Mr. Summers strongly rejected divestment, he affirmed the value of open debate and said he was not taking sides. "There is much to be debated about the Middle East and much in Israel's foreign and defense policy that can be and should be vigorously challenged," he said in his speech. Those caveats, however, did not persuade critics like Elizabeth Spelke, a psychology professor who also signed the divestiture petition. "Labeling the petition anti-Semitic is a strategy to detract from the criticisms of Israel," Professor Spelke said. "It turns the substance of a political debate into a debate of morals and supposed racism." But Eli Sprecher, a Harvard sophomore, said he welcomed Mr. Summers's willingness to speak out, saying: "He's not just the president of a university, he's the president of Harvard. If there's a pretty big issue, he should take a stand on it." Mr. Sprecher said that Mr. Summers had made valid points about the divestment movement and that "comparing Israel to apartheid South Africa does border on anti-Semitism."=20 Lawrence S. Bacow, president of nearby Tufts University, applauded Mr. Summers for his stand. "University presidents ought to raise important questions and I think he has," Mr. Bacow said, adding that he, too, was concerned about signs suggesting a rise in anti-Semitism on campuses. Earlier this year, nearly 600 professors, students, staff members and alumni from Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, signed a petition urging Harvard and M.I.T. to divest from Israel. Similar efforts have been mounted at about 40 other universities. The Harvard/M.I.T. petition said that "universities ought to use their influence - political and financial - to encourage the United States government and the government of Israel to respect the human rights of the Palestinians" by divesting from Israel and from American companies that sell arms to Israel.=20 Others at Harvard and M.I.T. fought back with a petition opposing divestment. In May, Mr. Summers declared that Harvard had "no intention" of divesting, adding, "Harvard is first and foremost a center of learning, not an institutional organ for advocacy on such a complex and controversial international conflict."=20 In his remarks this week, Mr. Summers noted that his family had left Europe at the beginning of the 20th century. He said that for him, the Holocaust was "a matter of history, not personal memory" and that anti-Semitism "has been remote from my experience."=20 Mr. Summers, who became Harvard's president in July 2001, concluded his speech by saying he hoped he was wrong in his assessment of a rise in anti-Semitism and also hoped that it proved "to be a self-denying prophecy - a prediction that carries the seeds of its own falsification." "But," he concluded, "this depends on all of us."=20 From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 03:08:28 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 03:08:28 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tPCe-0007Dt-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 03:08:28 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tPCV-0000Rx-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 03:08:19 -0600 Received: from cmailm4.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.193.211]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tPBR-0000RZ-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 03:07:14 -0600 Received: from [195.92.168.141] (helo=tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk) by cmailm4.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17tPBQ-0008H8-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:07:12 +0100 Received: from modem-2373.tiger.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.136.217.69] helo=computer.tiscali.co.uk) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17tPB6-0005XC-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:06:52 +0100 Message-Id: <5.1.0.14.2.20020923100345.00a3f6d0@pop.freeserve.net> X-Sender: markjones011@tiscali.co.uk@pop.tiscali.co.uk X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: Mark Jones Cc: rakeshb@stanford.edu Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Subject: [A-List] Re: Henry Liu Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:06:11 +0100 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:06:11 +0100 fwd from Rakesh Bhandari EPW Perspectives September 14, 2002 Wall Street Capitalism and the World of Professional Managers A systemic failure of epic proportions in organisations and institutions=20 that are the foundations of market capitalism is unfolding. This essay=20 takes a broad overview of the nature of the improprieties that led to the=20 collapse of corporate governance systems in some of the largest US=20 corporations. The behaviour of professional managers who run these=20 corporations as well as the supporting self-governing institutions and=20 corporate boards is then discussed in the context of the capital=20 market-driven governance systems within which they operate. The essay=20 concludes by raising a few issues of regulatory accountability that the=20 recent happenings have thrown up. D N Ghosh In an extraordinary move to clampdown on corporate improprieties, the US=20 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has required the chief executives= =20 and chief financial officers of 947 companies, with revenues over $1.2=20 billion in the preceding year, to swear under oath that the numbers in the= =20 companies' recent financial reports are indeed correct.1 If their=20 companies' numbers turn out to have been manipulated, the corporate chiefs= =20 would become liable to civil charges of fraud and to criminal charges of=20 lying to the government or possibly perjury. A measure to erect a=20 protective barrier against the avalanche of corporate accounting scandals,= =20 which some might well term desperate. Trust, the lubricant of the market=20 place, seems to have suddenly become rather short in supply. The litany of misdemeanours in global corporations as it has been=20 unfolding, is breathtaking in dimension. A systemic failure of epic=20 proportions in organisations and institutions that are the foundations of=20 market capitalism. In vast global corporations, in self-regulating bodies=20 that set industry standards for disclosure and transparency. In the boards= =20 of directors entrusted with the responsibility to oversee the functioning=20 of the professional executives. And above all, in the statutory regulatory= =20 agencies which failed to respond to signals that have been coming out for=20 some time now that all was not well in Wall Street. It has become a=20 continuing television serial drama, with the end not in sight. It is a=20 sordid tale of reckless executives, carefree corporate governors, smug and= =20 somnolent regulators, playful analysts, all under the hypnotic spell of the= =20 vertiginous rise of share prices and all the clever financial engineering=20 that seemed to pull money out of thin air. Entrepreneurial Behaviour What kind of crisis is this? Is it a failure of corporate governance or a=20 crisis in the system of market capitalism itself? We take a broad overview= =20 of the nature of improprieties that led to the collapse of corporate=20 governance systems in some of the largest US corporations. The behaviour of= =20 the professional managers who run these corporations as well as the=20 supporting self-governing institutions and corporate boards is then=20 discussed in the context of the capital market-driven governance systems=20 within which they operate. We conclude by raising a few issues of=20 regulatory accountability that the recent happenings have thrown up. We start with the Enron story, typical, as it now appears, of what has=20 happened in many of the global giants dominating Wall Street. Enron, a=20 small $ 2 billion company in the regulated gas pipeline business in the=20 early 1980s transformed itself, within a decade, into a diversified $ 100=20 billion mega-corporation. A display of entrepreneurship that would have=20 made Schumpeter proud. Riding on the wave of the technological potential of= =20 the innovative new economy, Enron recorded a remarkable growth, protean in= =20 nature, changing its shape and form to respond to and accommodate new=20 opportunities offered by the deregulation of energy business. New products,= =20 new markets, new ways of handling commercial development and new=20 organisational improvisations stunned the market. The range of products and= =20 services on offer was staggering, from commodities, such as electricity,=20 and entertainment products to exotic financial instruments. It extended its= =20 reach worldwide: power plants in India, water companies, franchise to the=20 mass retail market, a fibre optic network to deliver content over the=20 internet, all unrelated or only tangentially related to the company's core= =20 energy business. It was hailed as the most innovative company in America,=20 ranking seventh in the Fortune 500, ahead of corporate giants such as IBM,= =20 AT&T and Bank of America. That icon of management 'gurus', Gary Hamel, held= =20 it out as a prime example of a company that has "institutionalised capacity= =20 for perpetual innovation - an organisation where thousands of people see=20 themselves as perpetual revolutionaries". The payoff to this entrepreneurial and innovative ability was reflected in= =20 the market capitalisation of Enron. Its $ 1 share rose to a dizzy $ 86. The= =20 macro-economic conditions were favourable - a climate of relatively easy=20 credit conditions and investor and consumer optimism. The general ambience= =20 created a climate for the suspension of normal valuation and assessment=20 criteria. In consequence, a multiplicity of rival and actively innovating=20 firms started coming on the scene. In this context, Enron had to confront=20 the reality of erosion of its earnings from the rent-seeking and=20 rent-preserving activities of the original innovation-driven business=20 model. It was driven to consider afresh, in these altered market=20 conditions, what kinds of entrepreneurial activity would enable it to=20 preserve the image of a company that can stay consistently on a=20 continuously rising earnings curve. This is how entrepreneurs in market=20 capitalism would normally react. They tend to devote their talents to lines= =20 of activity that offer the largest returns in terms of some blend of=20 wealth, power and prestige.2 If the rules of the game as perceived by the= =20 entrepreneur for obtaining a certain level of payoffs change, so does=20 entrepreneur behaviour. William Baumol puts it succinctly: If entrepreneurship is the imaginative pursuit of position, with limited=20 concern about the means to achieve the purpose, then we can expect changes= =20 in the structure of rewards to modify the nature of the entrepreneur's=20 activities, somewhat drastically. The rules of the game can then be a=20 critical influence helping to determine whether entrepreneurship will be=20 allocated predominantly to activities that are productive, unproductive or= =20 destructive.3 Balance-Sheet Management Enron's entrepreneurial behaviour took a complete U-turn in the first half= =20 of the nineties. The systematic application of effort and creative energy=20 of the earlier phase was replaced by a contrived game of outwitting others= =20 through careful scheming: a game of manipulation of numbers, believing that= =20 success would come with a little bit of luck. Within a short span of a few= =20 weeks after the Enron scandal hit the market, skeletons came popping out in= =20 some of the most prestigious global corporations based in the US.=20 Surprisingly, virtually in every instance the long-standing perception of=20 the CEOs of these corporations vanished overnight. The 'innovative' CEO of= =20 yesterday seemed to have been basically a 'balance-sheet' CEO. The strategy of balance-sheet management had a single-minded objective of=20 managing income and profits to ensure the standing of the corporation in=20 Wall Street. Another new world of rent-seeking opportunities emerged.=20 Baumol captures the essentials of such entrepreneurship while describing=20 corporate behaviour during the 1980s: Today unproductive entrepreneurship takes many forms. Rent-seeking, often=20 via activities such as litigation and take-overs, and tax evasion and=20 avoidance efforts seem now to constitute the prime threat to productive=20 entrepreneurship. The spectacular fortunes amassed by the 'arbitrageurs'=20 revealed by the scandals of the mid-1980s were sometimes surely the reward= =20 of unproductive, occasionally illegal but entrepreneurial acts. Corporate=20 executives devote much of their time and energy to legal suit and=20 countersuit, and litigation is used to blunt or prevent excessive vigour in= =20 competition in rivals. Huge rewards by the courts, sometimes amounting to=20 billions of dollars, can bring prosperity to the victor and threaten the=20 loser with insolvency. When this happens, it becomes tempting for the=20 entrepreneur to select his closest advisors from the lawyers rather than=20 the engineers.4 The new strategy provided enormous opportunities for booking 'created=20 profits', but it contained within itself the seeds of destruction not only= =20 for itself but for the productive base of the economy as well. This=20 strategy of balance-sheet management was pursued by corporate managers with= =20 unstinted support from their counterparts in the organisations and=20 institutions connected with accounting, investment management and banks,=20 and at best what could be described as the forbearance of the regulators.=20 These institutions are key to the functioning of the market-driven=20 governance system. But they joined in as bit players of the orchestra, with= =20 the corporate chiefs conducting it. Fabricating revenues through hollow=20 transactions, transferring debts to off-balance-sheet subsidiaries, giving= =20 top executives highly profitable stakes in these subsidiaries, award of=20 generous stock options to themselves, all these were performed with=20 procedural finesse and perfection, each actor knowing exactly the role and= =20 how to play it.5 All of this could not have been undertaken without the=20 approval, encouragement and complicity of many of the most prestigious=20 independent accountants, lawyers, commercial and investment banks and=20 security analysts. Also clearly contributing to the situation was the=20 permissiveness of the agencies responsible for self-regulation and for=20 overseeing the functioning of the securities markets and enforcement of=20 disclosure requirements. Accountants, as the high priests, had the lead supporting role. The=20 management of Anderson and Enron were, in their own words, virtually=20 integrated. Enron hired Anderson people and Anderson, in turn, hired Enron= =20 internal auditors. People of both companies spoke effusively of their=20 intertwined operations. Thus, "over time", as the chief executive of Enron,= =20 Jeffery Skilling, put it, "we and Arthur Anderson will probably mesh our=20 systems and processes even more so that they are more seamless between the= =20 two organisations".6 Anderson helped Enron structure the different=20 partnership SPEs, whose off-the-books treatment it would later approve as=20 auditor.7 The statutory auditor did a good deal of Enron's internal=20 auditing - work that it later approved as the 'outside auditor'. Anderson=20 was adequately compensated for their consulting work, but that was in no=20 way unusual. Lest any accusing finger be raised only against Enron, it has= =20 to be said that engaging the statutory auditor for non-audit work has been= =20 a common industry practice. A Wall Street Journal analysis of fees=20 (disclosed) paid in 2001 to auditing firms by most of the 30 companies in=20 the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that 73 per cent of the total $=20 725.7 million reported was for services other than audit.8 The professional auditors were thus privy to the game that Enron executives= =20 were playing for the consumption of Wall Street analysts and investors.=20 They could not but have been aware of ramifications of the transactions=20 they were certifying. The term 'public' in 'certified public accountant' is= =20 indicative of the way the accountants are professionally known and describe= =20 themselves. Their certificates fed the public perception that the company=20 was stronger and more stable than it was.9 Accountants do not blow the=20 whistle publicly. The accepted convention is that if they find it=20 impossible to work with a client, they would quietly walk away without=20 making accusations. None of the public certified accountants in any of the= =20 corporations hit by the scandal did anything of the sort. A few observations on the role of other accomplices are in order. The=20 complicity of Wall Street's hotshot analysts was astounding. Just before=20 Enron restated its earnings downwards, 16 of the 17 security analysts had=20 placed 'strong buy' or 'buy' recommendation on the stock. What has now come= =20 out is that investment bank analysts had been, in their own interest and in= =20 the interest of the companies that they were serving, promoting shares they= =20 must have known to be worthless. The conflict of interest, inherent in such= =20 transactions, did not seem to have worried them. The global investment banks helped the management with complex devices for= =20 hiding debt and keeping the investors in the dark. The world's leading=20 commercial banks did not lag behind.10 Citibank and J P Morgan Chase=20 applied their innovative skills to devise arrangements that eliminated the= =20 need for capital market disclosure, keeping the structure and mechanics=20 private and thereby deceiving investors by masking the company's true=20 financial health. The record of the rating agencies was no less dismal.=20 Only weeks before Enron declared bankruptcy, the premier global rating=20 agencies had maintained Enron bonds at 'investment grade'. The lawyers came in at critical stages and gave the managers a good measure= =20 of moral support. When a senior employee with accounting background raised= =20 important issues on the manipulative nature of the transactions in the=20 SPEs, involving issues of conflict of interest 11 , the board first chose=20 to ignore it. Then, going a step further, it twice waived the corporate=20 ethics code to allow two outside partnerships to be headed by top=20 professional Enron executives and to rescue them from charges of benefiting= =20 from their positional advantages.12 This was done with the full backing of= =20 professional legal advisors, it being accepted among legal experts that=20 their clients are entitled to exploit loopholes and that their lawyers are= =20 also obliged to reveal such loopholes, even though this may amount to=20 aiding and abetting fraud. The firm defended the practice, saying that it=20 was technically correct and there was nothing illegal about that.13 The=20 model Ethics Code of the American Bar Association, the voice of the=20 American bar, forbids any disclosure in cases of financial fraud. They have= =20 refused even to discuss whether the prevailing code needs any revision=20 against the background of the happenings in the corporate world threatening= =20 to undermine confidence in the system itself. Self-Regulation and Self-Governance Soon after the Enron debacle, in his first public comment on the affair,=20 Joe Berardino, the then chief of Anderson, explained away the role of his=20 firm by shifting responsibility to the existing accounting standards and=20 codes, the benchmarks that Anderson claims to have followed, and raising=20 wider issues of public concern on the role and responsibilities of several= =20 self-governing bodies concerned with the functioning of the market.=20 Berardino focused on certain fundamental issues of disclosure and=20 transparency. He argued that Enron's collapse, like the dot-com meltdown, is a reminder that the=20 financial reporting model - with its emphasis on historical information and= =20 a single earnings per share member - is out of date and unresponsive to=20 today's new business models, complex financial structure, and associated=20 business risks.14 Berardino called for reform in every connected institution which had=20 anything to do with Enron. A re-look at accounting standards, modernising=20 the financial reporting system (which he termed "broken") streamlining the= =20 administrative bodies connected with the regulatory system (the patchwork=20 regulatory environment, as he calls it) and improving accountability across= =20 the system. What were the self-regulating bodies up to? There are several institutions= =20 connected with the regulatory framework of the accounting industry: the=20 American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA), Auditing=20 Standards Board (ASB), Emerging Issues Task Force (EITF) and Financial=20 Accounting Standards Board (FASB). Note what Berardino had to say: They are all made up of smart, diligent, well-intentioned people. But the=20 system is not keeping up with the issues raised by today's complex=20 financial issues. Standard setting is too slow. Responsibility for=20 administering discipline is too diffuse and punishment is not sufficiently= =20 certain to promote confidence in the profession.15 Some of the issues that are now agitating the financial services industry=20 and the investing community are not post-Enron revelations. They have been= =20 with the accounting industry for years. Take the role of FASB, a private=20 sector body funded largely by the accounting industry. It sets standards=20 for financial statements that investors rely upon. For two decades since=20 1980, the board has been deliberating the issue of when companies should be= =20 required to consolidate the debt of certain kinds of subsidiaries in their= =20 balance-sheet. It now transpires that Enron's use of off-the-books=20 partnerships started to pick up only in 1999. But for the endless=20 procrastination on the new standards that the FASB had been working on,=20 many of today's disasters might have well been averted. Amid objections by= =20 companies that they would have to disclose that they carried more debt than= =20 they would report to their shareholders, the FASB members bogged themselves= =20 down over crafting a definition for when one company 'controls' another.16= =20 Over the past three decades, the standard-setters have moved away from=20 establishing broad accounting principles aimed at ensuring that companies'= =20 financial statements are fairly presented. Instead, they moved towards=20 drafting voluminous rules; the board's recently released standards=20 derivative runs to 804 pages. While these rules, technically followed in a= =20 textbook manner, may shield the auditors and companies from legal=20 liabilities, taken together they a distorted picture of the reality.17 The former chairman of SEC, Arthur Levitt, described himself as being=20 stymied by both Democrats and Republicans when he proposed more regulation= =20 for accountants. During the 1990s both Republicans and Democrats actually=20 reduced the requirement that corporations disclose accurate information.=20 They passed legislation in 1995 to shield executives from lawsuits and=20 accountants from adopting stronger disclosure requirements concerning stock= =20 options issued to employees and how so-called goodwill is accounted for in= =20 merger.18 The general perception has been that FASB members have been too slow to=20 address festering problems and too quick to cave in on critical issues when= =20 pressured by big corporations and members of the accounting profession=20 acting on their behalf.19 In keeping itself wedded to a system "that=20 delivers volumes of complex information about what happened in the past,=20 but leaves some investors with limited understanding of what is happening=20 at present," the self-governing FASB failed in its primary responsibility=20 of setting standards appropriate to complex and developing business= models.20 Boards of Directors Self-regulation through corporate governance failed as well. It was given a= =20 go by. The fundamental objective underlying the structures, codes and=20 practices in corporate governance is to have in-built checks and balances=20 that safeguard investors, employees and creditors. The essence of such=20 checks and balances is to ensure a reasonable balance between risk-taking=20 and risk-management and between the dictates of competition and efficiency= =20 on the one hand and solvency and integrity on the other. As entrepreneurs,= =20 professional executives have to be aggressive risk-takers, but they need to= =20 be astute risk-managers as well. The board has to ensure that the=20 professional managers understand and adhere to the defining condition and=20 justification for the exercise of the autonomy they need for their=20 functioning, namely, that they have to feel responsible to support a kind=20 of entrepreneurship that can ensure sustainable growth. Large corporations are social enterprises; professional executives cannot=20 claim unrestricted freedom to do business behind the cloak of privacy or in= =20 the name of managerial autonomy. The litany of misleading statements and=20 errors of judgment by the Enron executives, as documented in the report,=20 prepared at the instance of the board itself, after the Enron scandal broke= =20 out, leaves none in doubt that the board was no more than a sleeping=20 partner.21 It does come out from the report - an observation not in=20 hindsight - that, with a little application of mind, the board or its=20 committees could have, if they had chosen to, discovered that the=20 innovative entrepreneurship of the professional managers had in reality=20 become a fa=E7ade for self-seeking and self-dealing. Even on occasions when= =20 the board was aware of conflict-of-interest situations, it did not seem to= =20 care to look through the substance of the proposed transactions and allowed= =20 the self-interested motives of professional managers to prevail. When=20 doubts assailed the conscience of independent directors, they permitted the= =20 legal advisors to assuage their conscience. The decisions entrepreneurs take need to have legitimacy, not only on=20 business considerations but also on the ground of public interest.=20 Perception of what constitutes public interest cannot be made dependant on= =20 what they consider vital for their business interest, irrespective of the=20 nature and consequences of such decisions. Values are not rules that the=20 professional community lays down for itself; these have to be relevant, not= =20 to the closed logic that governs their world, but to the society to which=20 they belong. There can be no consequence-independent justification for any= =20 kind of entrepreneurial behaviour, however innovative. Decisions taken=20 independently of any such concern are clearly reflective of a kind of=20 mindlessness on their part. The core of what should be deemed as public interest can be preserved if=20 the board can ensure that the professional executives avoid the kinds of=20 behaviour and decisions that start with maximisation of profit and end with= =20 socialisation of losses. Adherence to a code of professional ethics becomes= =20 an indispensable precondition for the remedy of the different kinds of=20 market failure that have disrupted the economy. What has to be balanced, as= =20 Karl Popper put it, "is maximisation of profit through private efforts,=20 with minimisation of suffering".22 For the proper functioning of the capital market-driven governance system,= =20 the board has a critical role. The secret of long-term corporate=20 performance lies in disciplined corporate governance on the part of all=20 those professionals who have been participating in the market system; it is= =20 the lack of it that explains the recent corporate disasters. Taking an=20 overall view on the US corporate governance system, in a recent address at= =20 New York University Alan Greenspan remarked that today there are "hardly=20 any independent directors left" on the boards of corporations. He went on=20 to add that the US system has become chief executive dominated and=20 difficult to restrain. The mechanisms supposedly binding the interests of=20 managers and shareholders sometimes achieve the opposite.23 Capital Market-Driven Governance System and Professional Behaviour What comes out is the dark underside of US corporate governance, a=20 manifestation, as many are alleging, of the inherent ills of the market=20 driven system. How does it affect the behaviour of professional managers?=20 These are the issues we turn now to. There is anger and resentment against business tycoons, investment bankers= =20 and accountants, previously seen as the geniuses behind the 'new economy'.= =20 But they are coming to be blamed, and rightly so, for hubris and=20 irresponsibility. Accusing fingers are also being pointed towards investors= =20 who placed uncritical faith in companies that were demonstrating improbable= =20 growth quarter after quarter. They have been facing accusations that they=20 have been irresponsible, dishonest, aggressively ambitious and so=20 self-seeking that they eschewed moral, ethical, social and environmental=20 values. Ironically these professionals swearing allegiance to the market=20 system and talking eloquently of its disciplining influence were doing=20 exactly what the managerial class in the authoritarian regime in the=20 erstwhile Soviet Union were accustomed to doing. Namely, to demonstrate how= =20 the units they were in charge of were moving ever upwards, from one record= =20 to another and in the bargain ensuring for themselves power and prestige=20 and assured upward movement in the official hierarchy. The buccaneering spirit of the professional executive and the kinds of=20 trickery employed by them have to be understood in the context of the logic= =20 and compulsions of the system within which they are accustomed to function.= =20 To see corporate behaviour as rooted in people who work within the system=20 excuses the corporation from their ultimate responsibilities. For it=20 erroneously puts the blame on individuals and not on the forms and rules by= =20 which they are compelled to operate. The factors that determine corporate=20 behaviour have less to do with the people who work inside the corporation=20 than with the logic and rules that drive such persons to a kind of=20 one-dimensional behaviour. These persons are not expected to set standards= =20 for better behaviour, as they perceive in their individual judgment that it= =20 would be preferable to relax corporate standards in the interest of certain= =20 ethical or moral values. Inside the corporation persons on different rungs= =20 on the hierarchy are simply following the legal and ethical standards that= =20 are laid down as foundations for corporate behaviour. Managers of=20 corporations who exhibit tendencies of deviant behaviour find themselves=20 soon out of favour. The behaviour of all people within the corporation=20 invariably conforms to a system of logic that is derived from its primary=20 function: to make people create new products and technologies, to expand=20 its reach and power. Form determines content, and corporations are machines. From the late eighties, capital market-driven governance became the=20 dominant mode in the market capitalist system. The process of selection and= =20 incentivisation of senior executives brought about a fundamental change in= =20 the way the global corporations came to be managed. Control over=20 corporations shifted away from teams of managers, who worked together for=20 long periods of time, towards charismatic visionaries, often recruited from= =20 outside the corporation, who focused on increasing the share price over all= =20 else. The recruitment process of these 'corporate saviours' developed its=20 own celebrity culture, restricting the group of suitable candidates to a=20 small number of people with that star quality needed to impress the market= =20 and thereby boost the share price. In the market capitalist system, as it came to operate, the obsession of=20 all market participants has become the quarterly financial results and the= =20 professional executives have come to be driven to prove themselves each and= =20 every quarter. They then begin to look for every conceivable way to show a= =20 better earnings picture. Generous rewards and incentives are designed and=20 calibrated to serve this objective. Stock options as incentives have become= =20 increasingly common in recent years. The grant value of management stock=20 options as a percentage of top executives' salaries and bonuses more than=20 tripled through the 1990s. On the other hand, the unsatisfactory stock=20 market performance of companies has been the cause of many dismissals of=20 CEOs in recent times. But the edifice of shareholder value is built as a byproduct of competitive= =20 strength. Earnings and profits have no meaning unless these emerge from=20 competitive strength. With the system heavily weighted in favour of=20 short-term share price performance, there are doubts as to whether=20 shareholder interest is indeed being served. In describing this phenomenon,= =20 Robert Schiller, the author of Irrational Exuberance writes: A grand social experience that turned managers into market manipulators,=20 shifting their focus toward acting out phony new paradigm fantasies,=20 boosting the market price at the expense of real fundamental value, and=20 even occasionally fudging accounts.24 The transformation in the nature of owner-management relations during the=20 last two decades could not but have a traumatic impact on the character of= =20 the professional managerial class that runs the large corporate enterprises= =20 and the organisations and institutions that support it. Over the last=20 century, with the maturing of industrial capitalism, the managerial class=20 came to acquire strategic decision-making power over enterprises, almost by= =20 default, due to dispersed stock ownership. This relatively passive role of= =20 owners has been undergoing qualitative changes in recent years. Though the= =20 decisions are, technically speaking, taken by them, as managers of property= =20 owned by shareholders, the discretion that they enjoy and exercise is=20 enormous, not dissimilar to that of the robber barons in the heyday of=20 their control of personal entrepreneurial enterprises. To an extent this=20 has become inevitable with the complexities of managing large corporations= =20 in a global environment and the flexibility that the managers need for=20 taking critical operational and strategic decisions in the interest of=20 corporations owned by shareholders. In the eyes of the shareholders and the= =20 investing community they have moved far beyond their legal status as=20 managers of property. They have in the fullness of time become propertied=20 managers, owning not merely stock options, but more importantly=20 intellectual capital, something which they claim to be their own by virtue= =20 of their education, attainments, skills and expertise. With the power of money available from the corporations, the prerogative of= =20 their economic position and the social and political weight of corporate=20 property, they have become a formidable power by themselves. What Wright=20 Mills visualised in his seminal book The Power Elite has come to be. These= =20 corporate executives have become economic politicians influencing or=20 controlling positions in the government which make decisions of consequence= =20 to their corporate activities. The members of this professional community=20 have now moved into virtually every key organisation and institution=20 connected with the system of market capitalism and are in a position to=20 control the levers of institutional power for creation of wealth in the way= =20 they think best. What any economy needs for sustaining wealth-creating activities is an=20 abundance of social capital, over and above material and intellectual=20 capital. Francis Fukuyama defined social capital as that "capability that=20 arises from the prevalence of trust in a society or in certain parts of=20 it". He elucidated: "a healthy capitalist economy is one in which there=20 will be sufficient social capital in the underlying society to permit=20 businesses, corporations, networks and the like to be self-governing".25 A= =20 market system needs a system of formal rules and regulations which have to= =20 be negotiated and agreed to, litigated and enforced, sometimes by coercive= =20 means. But the legal apparatus can never be a substitute for trust. Truth,= =20 trust, acceptance, restraint and obligation are virtues without which the=20 market system, as the recent happenings have shown, cannot be sustained;=20 their lack damages the system itself, bringing it to the brink of disaster.= =20 In a recent editorial the Financial Times recalled the dictum of Confucius= =20 that good government needs weapons, food and trust. If the ruler cannot=20 hold on to all three, he should give up weapons first and food next. Trust= =20 should be guarded to the end because "without trust, we cannot stand".26 Can trust be ingrained in the system through behavioural orientation? This= =20 issue is central to the restoration of faith in the market capitalist=20 system and for its smooth functioning. But the competitive market system=20 itself is a perennial obstacle to its nurturing. In his seminal book Limits= =20 to Growth Fred Hirsch notes the growing tension between the pursuit of=20 self-interest that provides the motive power of the competitive system and= =20 the moral principles of honesty and self-interest that are necessary for=20 the system to operate. Hirsch observed that in countering the excessive=20 commercialisation of the system, "the best results may be attained by=20 steering or guiding certain motives of individual behaviour into social=20 rather than individual orientation, though still on the basis of privately= =20 directed preferences. This requires not a change in human nature, merely a= =20 change in human convention or instinct or attitude of the same order as the= =20 shifts in social convention or moral standards that have gone along with=20 moral changes in economic conditions of the past." Such behavioural orientation is difficult to bring about. In the judgment=20 of some of the celebrities of Wall Street, this is not an easy process.=20 Asked to comment on his own market operation, when the LTCM crisis hit the= =20 Wall Street, George Soros made a pertinent observation. "Because I consider= =20 the market amoral, I am concerned as a businessman with being a successful= =20 competitor in these markets. At the same time, I recognise that I am also a= =20 human being and as a member of society must be concerned with moral issues.= =20 But if I allowed moral considerations to influence my investment decisions,= =20 it would render me an unsuccessful competitor. And it would not in any way= =20 influence the outcome because there would be someone else to take my place= =20 at only a marginally different price."27 Another doyen of Wall Street, Henry Kaufman, doubted whether in the market= =20 competitive system a sense of business ethics can ever be instilled: "To be= =20 sure, some Wall Street upstarts - commanding powerful new information and=20 trading technologies, and riding the 1980s, 1990s, bull market - have=20 become cocky and arrogant. But I wonder if their lack of a sense of=20 proportion is entirely their own fault. After all, many were not taught as= =20 part of their university or business school curricula either business=20 ethics or the values and responsibilities inherent in prudent financial=20 behaviour, or the lessons of financial history. And today's highly=20 competitive markets are surely a poor teacher of such lessons."28 Kaufman= =20 was particularly cynical about self-regulation: "Unfortunately,=20 self-regulation by the financial community has not worked in the past, and= =20 probably won't work in the future". On the role of the boards in=20 understanding the complexities of today's market, he provided an incisive=20 perception drawn from his own experience. "How could they [outside board=20 members] possibly understand, among other things, the magnitude of=20 risk-taking at Salomon, the dynamics of the matched books of security=20 lending, the true nature to which the firm was leveraging its capital, the= =20 credit risks in a large heterogeneous book of assets, the effectiveness of= =20 operating management in enforcing trading discipline, or the amount of=20 capital that was allocated to the various activities of the firm and the=20 rates of return on this capital on a risk-adjusted basis? Compounding the=20 problem, the formal reports prepared for the board were neither=20 comprehensive enough nor detailed enough to educate the outside directors=20 about the diversity and complexity of our operations."29 Regulatory Approach Regulation and control of the activities of the professional executives of= =20 the global corporations and the organisation and institutions connected=20 with its functioning is the tough problem that faces the regulating=20 agencies. We may at this stage look at the behavioural response of these=20 agencies in some recent episodes that have occurred on Wall Street. This=20 has been a story of persistent foot-dragging. Let us first revisit the LTCM debacle. The regulators in the US virtually=20 kept their hands off, relying, as it now appears, on the reputation of the= =20 fund managers to act as proxy for their own surveillance. The extent of=20 borrowing of hedge funds was not being reported to the SEC which overlooked= =20 this; the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation had not been reviewing=20 commercial banks' hedge fund positions; the Commodity Futures Trading=20 Commission admitted that the reporting against swaps had been inadequate=20 and had serious loopholes. All this was open-ended forbearance by the=20 regulatory authorities. The stepping in of the Federal Reserve at the=20 crisis stage enforcing a negotiated bankruptcy package does not wash away=20 the worrying questions concerning its role during the period when the=20 crisis was brewing. If the market threw up enough signals and if regulators= =20 failed to catch the signals and assess the probable consequences, is it not= =20 indicative of regulatory inefficiency? The congressional hearing following the LTCM debacle did raise issues of=20 regulatory failure; why, for example, could not the Federal Reserve have=20 opted for pre-emptive inspection and instil sanity in banks and=20 institutions that were on a dizzy spree of imprudent lending. While=20 admitting that the hedge funds "are under a fairly significant degree of=20 surveillance - though not technically regulated in the sense the banks=20 are", the Federal Reserve chairman explained that he was reluctant to use=20 the sledgehammer as that would be inconsistent with the commitment to=20 preserve and nourish the creativity of the free market mechanism. He had=20 another concern - the welfare of Wall Street. He expressed his apprehension= =20 that detailed regulation and control would drive the hedge funds offshore,= =20 outside US jurisdiction, taking the market away from Wall Street, as=20 happened in the late sixties with the euro-dollar and bond markets.30 The= =20 Presidential Commission later endorsed this approach of the regulators.31 Take another instance, namely, Greenspan's cautionary warning on=20 'irrational exuberance' in end-1996. It did not cool the market or dampen=20 the euphoria over the 'new economy'. The stock market continued to witness= =20 a seemingly unending rise in technology, media and telecom shares, of=20 companies with no history, no profit and no sustainable business model. The= =20 continuing state of exhilaration, even after the 'irrational exuberance'=20 admonition did create the impression that risks somehow have become a thing= =20 of the past. Huge doses of effortless money sedated the rationality of=20 investors. The regulators remained unmoved. Recently, in denouncing the=20 recent corporate malfeasance, Greenspan commented, "[a]t root was the rapid= =20 enlargement of stockmarket capitalisation in the latter part of the 1990s=20 that arguably engendered an outsized increase in opportunities for=20 avarice". In plain English it means that what was responsible for the=20 slippage in ethical standards was euphoria and such euphoria has to be=20 accepted as a normal complement in a market-driven economy. History teaches= =20 us that during financial euphoria, when reality starts to bite, companies=20 drive themselves hard to resort to different kinds of stratagems, as was=20 rampantly done on Wall Street, to conceal their failure. Does the=20 responsibility of the regulator end by educating the public about how=20 things are? In a recent editorial the Asian Wall Street Journal=20 characterised the attitude of the Federal Reserve chairman as that of a=20 moral instructor: "Everybody else may be praising the Fed Chairman, but his= =20 performance struck us as the equivalent of listening to a Sunday sermon on= =20 money supply".32 Concluding Remarks Accounting for financial transactions in ways that camouflaged their true=20 nature and intent seems to lie at the root of the improprieties committed=20 by the corporations. Some of these transactions were patently irregular,=20 some verged on the border of impropriety, and a few were semantic exercises= =20 to escape the net. Apart from direct individual responsibility, there were= =20 in respect of a few transactions collective complicity though sharing of=20 knowledge and technology among market participants in putting through=20 transactions with the intent to deceive investors and other stakeholders=20 and subvert the market process. Gaps in the adequacy of internal control=20 systems and slackness in the governance mechanism are now being identified= =20 and the set of revised rules coupled with deterrent punitive action for=20 their violation may considerably reduce the risks of the kind of crisis=20 that overtook Wall Street. If that were all, there should be little cause for concern. The cause for=20 discomfort lies elsewhere. It is well recognised that the kinds of=20 innovative technology-driven products and services across different sectors= =20 devised by market participants, with the full support and understanding of= =20 accountants and investment and commercial bankers, breed huge systemic=20 risks. Risks with global ramifications can have unpredictable consequences= =20 for the economy. The focus of the market and the regulators is now on=20 rule-setting and tightening the enforcement mechanism. If there be=20 aberrations or misuse of the system or frauds or systemic repercussions, it= =20 is only the market that can, through its self-correcting mechanism, set it= =20 right. To step beyond it and accept responsibility for preventive=20 intervention, it is argued, would be unworkable in a complex market=20 environment. The beneficiaries of the market capitalist system will have to= =20 accept, when it happens, the disastrous consequences of market failure.=20 This is the price that market participants must learn to pay for the=20 benefits that the market system otherwise confers. Economists have argued that there can be no consequences-independent=20 justification for the market process. It is arguable, however, that in a=20 complex and inter-dependent economy it is virtually impossible for the=20 regulators to anticipate consequences and decide when to intervene to=20 pre-empt these. Regulators are reconciled to the position that they are=20 basically handicapped in taking pre-emptive action to prevent any crisis=20 and can only strive to manage its consequences. This is what developments=20 in Wall Street have shown. In a market system it is not expected that the regulator has to stay ahead= =20 of the operator and dictate his movements, but at the same time he cannot=20 remain passive and stay far behind the pace of the operator. Regulators=20 cannot rest content with rule setting and punitive punishment. They must=20 accept the responsibility for sharpening their skills as a watchdog body=20 and be prepared to take pre-emptive steps when stability of the economy=20 comes to be threatened. The preceding paragraphs bring out the fact that=20 the regulators were apathetic even when there were clear and broad signals= =20 that things were going awry on Wall Street. This is the challenge for the regulators - regulatory design and craft that= =20 have to respond to the kinds of challenge posed through the deployment of=20 market strategies and instruments continually being developed by shrewd=20 market operators. This challenge has to be faced; otherwise, market=20 capitalism will be its own grave digger. Notes [I am grateful to Soumitra Chaudhuri for his help in writing this essay.] 1 Asian Wall Street Journal (ASWJ), 8.7.2002, 'US Order Makes CEOs Swear= =20 by Their Numbers' by Paul Beckett. 2 William J Baumol, Entrepreneurship, Management, and the Structure of=20 Payoffs, MIT, 1993, Chapter 2. 3 William J Baumol, 'Entrepreneurship: Productive, Unproductive and=20 Destructive', Journal of Political Economy , 1990, p 909. 4 Ibid, p 915. 5 A few examples to give a flavour of the nature and quality of=20 balance-sheet management. Creation of artificial revenue became the motto.= =20 Income was booked immediately on contracts that would take up to 10 years=20 to complete; deals were struck with partnerships controlled by the=20 management in the final weeks of each quarter and thereafter reversed in=20 the next quarter after Enron had filed its accounts. Enron used derivatives= =20 to hide speculator losses it suffered on technology stocks and hide huge=20 debts incurred to finance unprofitable new business and to inflate the=20 value of troubled business including new ventures in fibre-optic bandwidth.= =20 'Enron: Virtual Company, Virtual Profits', The Financial Times, 4.2.2002. Enron was not unique in this kind of strategy for massaging numbers.= =20 Massaging numbers to influence the balance-sheet became an innovative game,= =20 favourite with the professionals of many Wall Street companies. Look at the= =20 practices of the leading telecom companies. With vastly overstretched=20 capacities proving a drag, they were desperate not to let their standing in= =20 Wall Street suffer; they started making mutually beneficial deals among=20 themselves; the mechanism was simple. A company agrees to buy capacity on=20 another's network that it did not need for its immediate business needs but= =20 needed badly to demonstrate a sale of its own net work capacity; the price= =20 at which the two blocks of capacity were traded for cosmetic reasons would= =20 be set artificially high. Each of these companies understood that it was=20 creating artificial revenues through capacity swaps. The dotcom companies=20 were free with such practices as exchanging advertisements on each other's= =20 sites. Such swapping of transactions, though hollow and lacking economic=20 substance, were not occasional lapses. Industry representatives estimate that 15 per cent of revenue could=20 be attributed to such transactions. A few companies fine-tuned them=20 further. The revenue from capacity was booked in the quarter they were=20 made, while deferring the expense of buying capacity over a number of=20 years. Global Crossing was daring in its use; it was selling through=20 capacity swaps on its 27-country telecom network to other carriers,=20 offering them 20-year contracts, helping the company to book most of the=20 20-year revenue upfront as one lump sum. Meanwhile it would offer to buy=20 similar capacity in another area on the same carrier. Then it would book=20 the cost as capital expense, allowing it to show large revenue increase=20 with little or no operating expense. Observers kept wondering whether the=20 company was a financial and deal making entity or a telecom outfit. AWSJ,=20 7.2.2002, 'Tweaking Results is Common Practice', AWSJ, 22/24.2.2002,=20 'Creative Accounting Polishes Performance', FT, 13.2.2002, 'A Hollow Ring',= =20 AWSJ, 6.11.2001, 'Anderson Faces Scrutiny on Enron Disclosures'. 6 AWSJ, 16.4.2002, 'A View of Enron-Anderson Ties' and AWSJ, 22.1.2002,=20 'Enron and Anderson Sometimes Blurred into One Company'. 7 Off balance-sheet management had been Enron's particular specialty.=20 Enron had about 3,500 subsidiaries and affiliates, a sort of hybrid between= =20 corporates and partnerships, and used these extensively for off=20 balance-sheet transactions. Some were used for parking assets that were=20 troubled and falling in value, some were used to produce large bursts of=20 earning for Enron through the medium of complex financial transactions.=20 Enron transferred asset and debt to SPE partnerships and structures in a=20 way that these escaped being consolidated in Enron's balance-sheet. AWSJ,=20 21.1 2002, 'Enron's Crisis Renews Focus on Debt Accounting'. Another innovative instrument, neither debt nor equity, was devised=20 by Goldman Sachs, Enron's investment banker, to help Enron massage its=20 numbers. For the taxman, it resembled a loan, so that interest payments=20 could be deducted from taxable income. For shareholders and rating=20 agencies, which are not comfortable at over-leveraged companies, it=20 resembled equity. AWSJ, 5.2.2002, 'Enron the Fallout: How US Lost Battle to= =20 Close a Loophole'. 8 Figures in respect of some individual companies are shocking. Johnson &= =20 Johnson and LBC Communications paid in 2001 six times more for non-audit=20 specific services than they did for audit itself. Johnson & Johnson paid=20 PricewaterhouseCoopers $9 million for audit and $57.8 million for all other= =20 services, including $6.7 million for financial information system design=20 work. J P Morgan topped the list in terms of total fees paid in 2001. It=20 paid PricewaterhouseCoopers $104 million, of which only $18.4 million went= =20 for audit. ASWJ, 4.4.2002 'Auditors Still Offer Non-Audit Service: Survey=20 Finds Practice Remains Widespread'. 9 A recent study by Asian Wall Street Journal shows that auditing firms=20 failed to warn in advance of financial problems at nearly half of the=20 companies that sought bankruptcy court protection during the past 18=20 months. KMPG, it is reported, had the worst track record, failing to issue= =20 red flags, in the form of so-called going concern warnings, on 16 of the 28= =20 companies it audited that subsequently filed for bankruptcy protection. The= =20 AWSJ, 12/13.7.2002, 'US Auditors Failed to Warn Companies' by Cassal= Bryan-Low. 10 AWSJ, 5.2.2002, 'Enron the Fallout: How US Lost Battle to Close a=20 Loophole'. The structure the banks devised and promoted for Enron and=20 energy companies involve prepaid oil and gas contracts, in which money is=20 paid up front for future delivery of the commodity. The companies employed= =20 complex circular trades among an off-shore entity, the banks and=20 themselves, enabling them to book that cash as part of their trading=20 operation, instead of as debt, and also keep investors in the dark. AWSJ,=20 25.7.2002, 'Energy Deals Made $200 Million for Banks'. 11 AWSJ, 19.3.2002, 'Enron Official Made a Warning as Early as 1999'. 12 AWSJ, 21.1.2002, 'Waivers Haunt Enron Board'. 13 The Financial Times, 21.2.2002, 'Don't Blame the Lawyers for Enron' by=20 Patti Waldmier. 14 AWSJ, 5.12.2001, 'Enron: A Wake-Up Call' by Joe Berardino. 15 Ibid. 16 AWSJ, 15/17.2.2002, 'FASB Aims to Alter Rules for Off-Book Debts'. 17 Ibid. 18 'Enron: Seduction and Betrayal' The New York Review of Books, March= 24,2002. 19 AWSJ, 7.2.2002, 'Accounting Faces Call for Change'. 20 Joe Barardino, op cit, note 14. 21 Report of investigation by the Special Investigation Committee of the=20 Board of Directors of Enron Corporation by William C powers Jr, Raymond S=20 Ttroubh, Herbert S WinokurJr www.=20 News.findlaw.com/hdocs/docs/enron/sicreport (also discussed in NYRB article= =20 referred to at note 13 above). 22 Karl Popper, 'The Moral Responsibility of the Scientist', Encounter,=20 March 1969. 23 FT, 12.2.2002, 'Will Corporation Clean Itself Up?' 24 Robert J Schiller, 'The Share-Price Scandals, AWSJ, 28-30.6.2002. 25 Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity by Francis=20 Fukuyama, Penguin Books 1995, p 256. 26 FT, 8.6.2002. 27 Interview with George Soros, Jeff Madrick, 'Behind the Financial=20 Crisis', New York Review of Books, January 14, 1999. 28 'Wall Street Entrepreneurs Warts and All' (review of On Money and=20 Markets: A Wall Street Memoir by Henry Kaufman) by D N Ghosh, Economic and= =20 Political Weekly, September 16, 2000. 29 Ibid. 30 D N Ghosh, 'Hedge Fund Terrorism and Regulatory Inertia', Economic and=20 Political Weekly, January 16, 1999. 31 Report of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, Hedge=20 Funds Leverage, and the Lessons of Long Term Capital Management, April 1999. 32 AWSJ, 19/21.7.2002, 'Parson Greenspan'. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 03:28:28 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 03:28:28 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tPW0-0007Il-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 03:28:28 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tPVq-0000e1-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 03:28:18 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tPV8-0000ds-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 03:27:34 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8N9Q3h31560 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:26:03 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8N9Q2N31498 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:26:02 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message Message-ID: X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: [A-List] Germany: Election results Thread-Index: AcJirHE2TTIouHhETfqERzvwyYBz0gAMQ75w From: "Keaney Michael" To: Subject: [A-List] Germany: Election results Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:28:58 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:28:58 +0300 Sabri asks of the German election: Are there any European friends here to comment on this? Brits don't count, Australians are OK. ----- As an expatriate Scot living in Finland who has never considered himself a "Brit", I hope I meet the criteria for answering here, although I cannot claim any Australian heritage. I said to Mark last week that I would put money on Schr=F6der winning, although as it turns out it was really too close to call. It's thanks to the recovery by the Greens that Schr=F6der is there at all, since Stoiber secured 0.2% more votes. Only the lacklustre performance of the neoliberal Free Democrats let him down. Quick analysis: Firstly, this is the better result for Europe vis a vis the US. With Berlusconi and Aznar joining Blair in toadying to Bush (albeit for different reasons) a significant counterweight is required in order to check (however pitifully) US hegemony. Schr=F6der is that counterweight, even if he rolls over on Iraq (which, as I've repeatedly suggested, is highly possible, if not probable). Schr=F6der, having broken the post-1945 taboos governing German foreign policy, is well placed to build on that. Stoiber would not have made much of a difference in this respect, as I believe that the majority of the German state apparatus and its capital allies/supports would have continued this policy regardless. However Stoiber would have lacked Schr=F6der's assurance at least initially, and then there is the rather wasteful effort involved in Stoiber differentiating himself from his predecessor for the sake of appearances. All that has been avoided by the retention of the status quo. Schr=F6der can also be expected to align with forces (if not lead them) in favour of ditching the growth and stability pact tying eurozone members' fiscal policies to strict monetarist guidelines in accordance with the then conventional wisdom that framed the Maastricht Treaty of 1991. Once Wim Duisenburg retires from the European Central Bank, expect the sparks to fly, especially since his presumed successor, Jean-Claude Trichet, is still under investigation by French authorities for corruption. The opportunist Schr=F6der may stake a claim on a German head of the ECB as a nationalist means of buying off the monetarist Bundesbank (still in favour of the stability and growth pact) as well as stressing the importance of the ECB's "credibility" (always a big thing for central bankers) and how compromised that would be with a tainted Trichet in charge for the remainder of Duisenburg's eight-year term. Another one in the eye for Chirac. Expect also rumblings over the Common Agricultural Policy and German reluctance to continue subsidising French farming interests. Secondly, for Germany itself this is a preferable result, although only marginally so. Had Stoiber won a more overt class warfare from above would have been unleashed, since it is generally agreed by mainstream commentators and politicians that Schr=F6der's main failing has been to stall on the all-important issue of "labour market" reform. There is little question that Schr=F6der will proceed down this road, although at a slower pace and therefore with sections of the trade union leadership on board. It will not be lost on the trade union bureaucracy that Schr=F6der's victory is hardly a ringing mandate, and that their retention of influence will depend upon some sort of accommodation to a reformist agenda. They will be bought via the usual inducements of position, influence, etc. Thus Germany will continue to be transformed in accordance with the predictions of Poulantzas 30 years ago regarding the creation of the conditions of US monopoly capitalism. Anecdotally, there is some superficial evidence to suggest that this marks a real turning point in German politics. While 4 years ago it was clear that Kohl had reached the end of his tether, Schr=F6der's victory now signals an important shift in the social composition of each party's support. Watching Deutsche Welle this morning it was instructive to see the clear differences among those attending the different parties' post-election rallies. Both the SPD and the PDS could be said to have the broadest demographic spread, with no age group predominating, although the PDS was noticeably more proletarian in appearance, as might be expected. However the prize for best tailoring must go to the CDU-CSU rally, which was most reminiscent of a British Conservative Party gathering, full as it was of mostly older males dressed in the best threads euros can buy. Stoiber himself looked noticeably aged compared to Schr=F6der. Historians may ponder how someone as tired looking could have come so close to beating the youthful (by comparison) incumbent. Of course "the economy" has not been helping Schr=F6der, which, according to conventional wisdom, makes his final victory all the more remarkable. But CDU Angela Merkel, a complete charisma vacuum, is an unlikely challenger to Schr=F6der in four years' time. Short of the emergence of a credible candidate (Lothar Sp=E4th?), the German centre-right is unlikely to enjoy such a good opportunity to unseat Schr=F6der in 2006. The revival in the Green Party's fortunes seems to be down to the youth vote. For some strange reason Joschka Fischer has something of a personal following among many young adults (there are a few German students studying here who seem to think he's wonderful), and then there is the general concern over Kyoto Protocol ratification, Central Europe floods etc., which benefits the only party (even one as tainted as the German Greens) to address explicitly environmental concerns. Meanwhile the FDP looked like the youth wing of the CDU, with lots of well-groomed "Tory Boys" in suits commiserating over the vastly deflated expectations of a campaign begun with leader Guido Westerwelle's promise to secure a vote of 18% (as opposed to its actual 7%). Judging from tv coverage this morning, deputy J=FCrgen M=F6llemann is taking the rap for that, following his criticisms of Israel. The clear difference in British and German policies re Iraq is just one of the interesting issues arising from Schr=F6der's election victory, if only because of the close cooperation between New Labour and the SPD during this campaign. How much credit will Clarke, Hain, Mandelson, et al. take for the result? See http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2001/msg04703.htm Michael Keaney From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 03:35:26 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 03:35:26 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tPck-0007JR-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 03:35:26 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tPcc-0000ev-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 03:35:18 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tPbv-0000em-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 03:34:35 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8N9X4B05679 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:33:04 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8N9X3N05616 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:33:03 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message Message-ID: X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: [Fwd: Drink beer.... ;-)] Thread-Index: AcJiE5TGWcs6X4qYT6S7vvXtHyIlRgAsfdugAAecZKA= From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US economic recovery strategy? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:35:59 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:35:59 +0300 Subject: Investment strategies If you had bought $1000.00 worth of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00. With Enron, you would have $16.50 of the original $1,000.00. With Worldcom, you would have less than $5.00 left. If you had bought $1,000.00 worth of Miller Lite (the beer, not the stock), drank the beer, and returned the cans for a 10 cent deposit, you would have $214.00. Based on the above, the current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 04:18:27 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 04:18:27 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tQIN-0007Us-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 04:18:27 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tQIF-0000va-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 04:18:19 -0600 Received: from cmailm4.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.193.211]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tQHJ-0000vR-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 04:17:21 -0600 Received: from [195.92.168.141] (helo=tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk) by cmailm4.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17tQHI-0008RR-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 11:17:20 +0100 Received: from modem-1752.zebra.dialup.pol.co.uk ([81.76.150.216] helo=computer.tiscali.co.uk) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17tQHI-0004iO-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 11:17:20 +0100 Message-Id: <5.1.0.14.2.20020923111529.00a5b070@pop.tiscali.co.uk> X-Sender: markjones011@tiscali.co.uk@pop.tiscali.co.uk X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: Mark Jones Subject: Re: [A-List] Germany: Election results In-Reply-To: Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 11:16:45 +0100 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 11:16:45 +0100 At 23/09/2002 10:28, Michael K wrote: >Thus Germany will continue to be transformed in accordance with the >predictions of Poulantzas 30 years ago regarding the creation of the >conditions of US monopoly capitalism. You mentioned this before and I still can't get my head round it. Maybe a little primer on Poulantzas might help--sorry if you did that already and I never noticed. Mark From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 05:29:27 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 05:29:27 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRP5-0007lg-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 05:29:27 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tROx-0001Tv-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 05:29:19 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRNo-0001Tm-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 05:28:08 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NBQb624329 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:26:37 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NBQXN24077 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:26:33 +0300 Subject: RE: [A-List] Germany: Election results MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message-ID: content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: [A-List] Germany: Election results Thread-Index: AcJi6tpEpHeS0g9XQTa5ZKf83G8aLAABTIrA From: "Keaney Michael" To: Cc: "leo panitch" , "Jessop, Robert" Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:29:28 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:29:28 +0300 At 23/09/2002 10:28, Michael K wrote: >Thus Germany will continue to be transformed in accordance with the=20 >predictions of Poulantzas 30 years ago regarding the creation of the=20 >conditions of US monopoly capitalism. You mentioned this before and I still can't get my head round it. Maybe = a=20 little primer on Poulantzas might help--sorry if you did that already = and I=20 never noticed. ----- A little primer on Poulantzas would be brilliant. Bob Jessop devoted a weighty tome to Poulantzas, but the result was far from that of a little primer, although much more thought-provoking. Jessop himself still says he's trying to get his head around much of what NP was saying, as am I (from far less solid theoretical foundations than Jessop). Part of the trouble is that NP himself was constantly revising and updating his theory of the state, leading to Jessop's trouble when writing his exposition, which nonetheless remains the definitive study. However, as I *interpret* or understand NP, the logic is basically this: according to NP, the profusion of US FDI that occurred during the 1960s and 70s fundamentally altered the class structures of the recipient countries. Instead of a dominant national bourgeoisie there was now a three-way split: firstly, a section of the national bourgeoisie would become closely entwined with US capital whilst retaining an independent, domestic base; secondly, another section of the national bourgeoisie would become utterly dependent on US capital (i.e., comprador) and have no independent domestic base; thirdly, an increasingly rump national bourgeoisie would be left to struggle for control over those parts of the state apparatus and policy still accessible. This division would be further complicated by the ordinary everyday inter-capital rivalries. Re the state, however, hegemony would increasingly become the preserve of a power bloc of shifting alliances, rather than the property of one dominant class or fraction. That is still theoretically possible, but less and less likely. Especially in "State Power Socialism" NP began to move towards a treatment of the state as possessing sufficient autonomy to advance its own agendas, something which Jessop has since devoted much time and energy to developing. It was Leo Panitch who more recently resurrected NP's work on FDI in his NLR article of 2000. Using this as his point of departure he explored how the Clinton administration, via Rubin/Summers/IMF was attempting to construct a global framework in which every state apparatus would find itself constrained (not necessarily involuntarily, as with the WTO) by rules set largely by hegemonic US interests, enabling those same US interests to exploit at will the global economy at the expense of its imperialist rivals (less an expense, more a smaller share of the pie) and especially the South. Panitch also linked this analysis to the 1976 intervention by the IMF in Britain, usefully highlighting that episode's prototype status with regard to subsequent structural adjustment programs foisted upon the South by the IMF/World Bank nexus during the 1980s and 90s. In such limited space Panitch is not able to expand upon the specifics of US capital's involvement in the struggle for the reins of the UK state during the late 70s/early 80s, but the implications are sufficient to enable some (like yours truly) to make a stab at joining the dots and constructing a reasonably robust narrative charting the history of what finally emerged as Thatcherism, only to transmogrify into New Labour, an ironic victory for US Cold War liberalism if ever there was. But I digress: the point re Germany is straightforward, but has major implications concerning the EU and its inter-imperialist rivalry with the US. Simply, Schr=F6der sits atop a state apparatus aligned with key sectors of German capital that wish to break out of the post-1945 straitjacket of Deutschland AG and go head-to-head with its main rivals in the US. In order to do that, these must enjoy the same (perceived) advantages available to their US rivals. Thus the much called for reform of the "labour market" (i.e. attack on entitlements won as part of the post-1945 settlement and integral to the policies of both main parties), reform of the financial sector (begun, however haltingly, with the so-called "Riester pensions" -- i.e. part-privatisation of state provision), and access to bigger sources of investment capital -- hence the Wall Street listing of Daimler-Benz and the aggressive focus on share price by the present management of Deutsche Bank. The process of obviously complex, not least because of the retention of structures that belong to the post-1945 era and which may even be retained owing to perceived advantages these may bring to German capital, which might, via the state, promote "capitalism with German characteristics" to paraphrase the Chinese. The transition will certainly not be neat and tidy. However, at bottom, in order to compete with its US rivals German capital must actually become more like its US rivals. NP's point was thus that, far from heralding a "colonisation" of Western Europe by the US (cf. Raymond Vernon's "Sovereignty at Bay", c. 1974, and numerous worried French left nationalists of the time like J-P Ch=E9v=E8nement), the creation of the conditions of US monopoly capital instigated via US FDI would intensify, rather than calm, inter-imperialist rivalries. Michael Keaney From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 05:54:25 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 05:54:25 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRnF-0007t4-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 05:54:25 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRn8-0001hb-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 05:54:19 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRmQ-0001hS-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 05:53:35 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NBq4522222 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:52:04 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NBq2N22160 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:52:02 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US imperialism: Iraq Thread-Index: AcJi96wt63A82c7XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:54:58 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:54:58 +0300 Air strike poised to destroy leader's HQ IAN BRUCE The Herald, 23 September 2002 PENTAGON strategists say Saddam Hussein's tribal home town of Tikrit, 100 miles north of Baghdad, would be "eliminated" in the most powerful air attack ever mounted if the White House orders an assault on Iraq. The town, with a population of 50,000, is regarded as the regime's centre of gravity and provides most of Saddam's personal bodyguard, the leaders of the ruling Baath party, and the officers of both the Republican Guard divisions and the SSS security agency. Iraq is governed on a tribal system dominated by the Al Bu Nasser clan, to which Saddam belongs. Tikrit is the clan capital, although some of its chiefs come from nearby Samarra. All belong to the dominant minority Sunni branch of Islam which makes up about 20% of the population. Targeting Tikrit for destruction is seen as a central plank of a campaign aimed at decapitating the government apparatus rather than the 1991 goal of smashing Iraq's armed forces. Sources say regular units which make up the bulk of Iraq's 350,000-strong army would be warned to stay within their bases and assembly areas or face annihilation and would not be attacked unless they deployed to meet an invasion. The six Republican Guard divisions and the 15,000 men of the Special Republican Guard who provide security inside Baghdad itself would be hit by overwhelming firepower on a round-the-clock basis. The 50,000 RG soldiers are deployed in a defensive ring around the capital in preparation for a last-stand battle. Their objective would be to draw US and any allied troops into street battles to inflict maximum casualties and greatly reduce the effectiveness of superior Western technology. Experience from the second world war onwards shows that troops engaged in a street-by-street, house-by-house conflict over a period of weeks can expect to suffer 30% casualties. Total US dead in the 1991 Gulf war amounted to 148 soldiers. Britain lost 28, of whom nine were the victims of "friendly fire" in an accidental US airstrike on their armoured vehicles. A timetable for a crippling air assault on Iraq ranges from two days to two weeks. The likely date for an attack, as disclosed in The Herald on Saturday, is late January or early February next year to allow time for a military build-up and to take advantage of the region's better weather conditions. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 05:58:28 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 05:58:28 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRrA-0007tO-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 05:58:28 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRr0-0001iL-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 05:58:18 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRqC-0001iC-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 05:57:28 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NBtvM25260 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:55:57 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NBtsN25141 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:55:54 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US state: fissures appearing Thread-Index: AcJi+Db063A8387XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US state: fissures appearing Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:58:51 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:58:51 +0300 Call for inquiry into US spying =20 >From Ros Davidson in Los Angeles The Sunday Herald, 22 September 2002 =20 A final report on America's bungled intelligence before the September 11 attacks is many months away, but after just three days of public congressional hearings, the implications are becoming clear. The odds are growing that senior politicians and victims' families will continue to push for an independent inquiry into US spying as the only way to excavate the truth, devise reforms, and force changes into law without a political shoot-out. In a preliminary report, investigators say the Bush and Clinton administrations knew terrorists might attempt to use aeroplanes in domestic attacks, but the intelligence was not disseminated in a way that might have averted the loss of life. Bowing to pressure, Bush made a u-turn on Friday, saying he now supports an external probe into the September 11 attacks, although not into the role of American intelligence. Such commissions were set up after the bombing of USS Cole in Yemen, the US embassy bombings in Africa, and Pearl Harbour. Criticism of his announcement, which came on the same day he unveiled a new anti- terrorist strategy of pre-emptive strikes, was swift. 'This is disgraceful given what we're learning about intelligence failures, and the White House is trying to cover it up,' said Stephen Push, leader of a group of families. During the hearings it has become more obvious why the White House objects to a full inquiry. It would be sure to turn up more embarrassing intelligence failures before the attacks which killed about 3000 people . Questions are being raised about the extent of reforms in the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Central Intelligence Agency, announced some six months ago and which are still being implemented. The preliminary 30-page report by congressional investigators, presented during last week's hearings, noted that three years ago CIA director George Tenet knew enough to declare 'war' on al-Qaeda. 'I want no resources or people spared in this effort, either inside the CIA or the (intelligence) communities.' Intelligence agents would later learn that al-Qaeda was planning to fly a bomb-laden plane into the World Trade Center, investigators revealed last week. Yet on the morning of September 11, 2001, the agency had just five analysts assigned full-time to tracking bin Laden's network, and the FBI had only one al-Qaeda analyst. 'It's clear there was an intelligence failure,' said Melvin Goodman, a former CIA agent and senior fellow with the Center for International Policy. 'The fact that they used airplanes shouldn't have been surprising.' US intelligence had for years been wedded to a cold war view of the world, when analysts churned out statistical reports on the Soviet military and considered their job done. 'The problem was that assumptions weren't changed,' says Goodman. 'Even in the face of all this evidence rolling in, they didn't believe it.' From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 06:00:25 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 06:00:25 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRt3-0007tp-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 06:00:25 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRsx-0001is-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 06:00:19 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRsF-0001ij-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 05:59:36 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NBw5s27361 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:58:05 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NBw3N27279 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 14:58:03 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US imperialism: Iraq Thread-Index: AcJi+IMR63A85c7XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 15:00:59 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 15:00:59 +0300 Unveiled: the thugs Bush wants in place of Saddam If Saddam Hussein is America's frying-pan, these men are the fire into which President Bush may be jumping. Foreign Editor David Pratt runs the rule over some of the highly assorted and far from loveable would-be beneficiaries of Iraqi 'regime change' The Sunday Herald, 22 September 2002 =20 CORRUPT, feckless and downright dangerous. Some say they make the Butcher of Baghdad himself look good. Who are they? The contenders for Saddam Hussein's throne. Ever since the September 11 attacks 'regime change' has been the catchphrase coming out of Washington. But if George Bush is as intent on invading Iraq as he seems to be, overthrowing the Iraqi regime and deposing Saddam may well turn out to be the easy bit. If Afghanistan's nightmarish internal politics proved problematic after the toppling of the Taliban, Bush should be under no illusion that Iraq's would be any less so. The Northern Alliance might not have seemed a very palatable alternative to the Taliban, but it has a certain rough credibility. There is no equivalent in Iraq. Following any ousting of Saddam, the task will be to prevent anarchy from returning to the streets of Baghdad and the oil facilities throughout the country. To that end the US needs its own strongman to put in Saddam's place. Saddam, of course, has never had a problem with making enemies. Indeed, the breadth of the Iraqi opposition -- from Islamic fundamentalists and communists to monarchists and free-marketeers -- demonstrates his ability in this respect. Seemingly every week a new group springs up and issues an identikit statement to the international media. Recently one organisation, which nobody seems to have heard of except its own members, even took over the Iraqi embassy in Germany to prove that it existed. There are, however, some basic patterns to the cacophony of proclamations from new movements, councils and parties that purport to represent the voice of the authentic Iraqi individual. First, there are the national bodies that were created inside Iraq before 1990, when the bond that had formed between Iraq and the US was shattered by the invasion of Kuwait. These are groups like the Iraqi Communist Party, the largest group in Iraq from the 1950s through to the 1970s, and al-Daawa al-Islamiyya (the Islamic Call), which engineered the biggest demonstrations against the Iraqi regime in the 1970s and had close ties with Ayatollah Khomeini's Islamic revolutionaries in neighbouring Iran. With extensive experience of organisation and the political process inside Iraq, many of these groups retain some level of support -- or at least respect -- among many of the Iraqi people. They have three things in common: they are intensely persecuted by the Iraqi regime, they are wholly unpalatable to the West, and they strongly oppose a US invasion on the grounds of the suffering this will cause the Iraqi people. Second, there are groups representing sectarian or ethnic interests such as the four million Iraqi Kurds, and the country's Shi'as, which make up 60% of the population. Although some of these groups are large, and the US has sought their backing for its invasion plans, they remain split within their own ranks, and have no chance of being installed in Saddam's place as they cannot claim to represent all Iraqis. Third, there are the new groups, often formed under US auspices after 1990. The US has tried to encourage senior members of Iraq's military and civilian establishments to defect to the West, and their prize has often been a budget, some training, lavish offices, frequent meetings with US officials and the prospect of taking a leading political role in a post-Saddam Iraq. It is from these groups that the US will select the new rulers if they succeed in ousting Saddam. 'He may be a son-of-a-bitch,' President Franklin D Roosevelt is said to have commented of the brutal Nicaraguan dictator, Anastasio Somoza, 'but he's our son-of-a-bitch'. Saddam was Washington's SOB throughout most of the Reagan administration, a valuable foil against the US's nemesis, Iran. Somewhere along the line, possibly in 1990, he lost the 'our'. Judging from the current rogues' gallery of heirs to Saddam, it's anyone's guess which of them will be tagged with Washington's favourite SOB epithet this time around. General Nizar Al-Khazraji ACCORDING to many human rights groups, he is the field commander who led the 48-hour chemical weapons attack which poisoned and burned 5000 Kurdish civilians in the northern town of Halabja in March 1988. He also, alleges one credible eyewitness who testified in video-taped evidence earlier this year, kicked a little Kurdish child to death after his forces entered a village during the height of the Iraqi repression in 1988. But, says Ambassador David Mack, a senior official in the US State Department who co-ordinates meetings of Iraqi opposition groups in Washington DC, General Nizar al-Khazraji has 'a good military reputation' and 'the right ingredients' as a future leader in Iraq. The most senior military officer to defect since 1990, al-Khazraji was Saddam's chief of staff from 1980 until 1991, leading the army through the eight-year Iran-Iraq war and the invasion of Kuwait in 1990. He left Iraq in 1996 and was granted political asylum first in Spain and then in Denmark, where he now lives in a quiet suburb of Copenhagen. There are claims he was reluctant to leave Iraq, but that the CIA tempted him with promises of a major political role after the overthrow of Saddam. As a result, he has not been quiet about his plans to lead Iraq: he once described his future leadership as a 'sacred duty'. Apart from his apparent boastfulness, which has alienated many of his fellow travellers in the exiled opposition, al-Khazraji's role in some of the worst abuses of Saddam's regime poses serious problems in presenting himself as a future leader of Iraq. A Danish newspaper investigating al-Khazraji's role found he was the field commander during the Halabja operation, choosing the chemicals to be used and the intensity with which to drop them. Although al-Khazraji denies having had this role, the allegations were serious and detailed enough for the Danish ministry of justice to launch an official investigation, with the potential to bring war crimes charges against him. Eighty-nine Kurdish and human rights groups have issued a joint statement to demand his trial. He has been under effective house arrest for almost a year now, guarded by four police officers. Despite this al-Khazraji, 64, says he has no doubt the Iraqi military is ready to rise up against Saddam. All it will take is a lot of American firepower, carefully targeted, and some organising by military exiles like himself. How can he be so sure? 'I was the chief of my army and I know my men very well,' he says. Brigadier-General Najib Al-Salihi IN meetings at the British Foreign Office in March this year, Brigadier-General Najib al-Salihi acquired the sobriquet of 'the rapidly rising star' of the Iraqi opposition. When a popular website of Iraqi exiles held an online poll to find who would be their preferred future leader, al-Salihi raced ahead -- until the poll had to be suspended amid suspicions it was being rigged. In any case, it wouldn't have been the first Iraqi election to produce a victor with 99.9% of the vote. Commander of an armoured division of Iraq's elite Republican Guard in the Gulf war, Salihi played a significant military role in Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. He was also engaged in putting down the uprising against Saddam 's rule that followed the defeat at the hands of the US-led forces. The repressive way in which this particular episode was handled caused 1.5 million people to flee their homes, while Salihi went on to write a book about his crushing of the popular uprising, entitled Al-Zilzal, 'The Earthquake'. After commanding Iraqi forces in putting down another rebellion by an opposition group in 1995, Salihi defected to the side of his former enemies and came to co-operate with the US, where he now lives. He has the advantage of youth over many of his rivals, having just turned 50, and strikes a contradictory pose with regard to his future role. On the one hand he states that the military should not be engaged in the politics of Iraq. On the other, he heads the CIA- sponsored Iraqi Free Officers Movement, another collection of dubious military exiles in the Washington suburbs, which he claims can raise 30,000 fighters. He also says he favours a three- pronged infantry assault in Baghdad from Kurdish Iraq, Kuwait and possibly Jordan. He forecasts a scenario in which Saddam would be on the run, suggesting that US aircraft policing the no-fly zones could be used to back an advance on Baghdad by rebel forces from the north. 'Saddam will try to escape, but he will find that he has nowhere to go,' Salihi has said. 'We will not be able to put him on trial. The people will get to him first.' Cleverly, Salihi avoids giving the impression of power-hungriness and speaks of the 'tough work ahead' and the 'bond of trust with the Iraqi people'. The same Iraqi people he so mercilessly crushed when they opposed Saddam. Ahmad Al-Chalabi Ahmad al-Chalabi came to international attention not for his politics, but for fleeing to London from Jordan in 1989 amid allegations he had embezzled millions from the bank he used to own. Although he denies any wrongdoing, the collapse of the Petra Bank left thousands of its customers in penury and earned him comparisons with Robert Maxwell. He didn't return to Jordan to defend himself at his trial in 1992, which took place in his absence, and will begin his 32 years in prison only if he returns to Jordan, which he shows no sign of doing at present. The long-time face of the Iraqi opposition in Washington, Chalabi took the reins of the Iraqi National Congress (INC), an umbrella organisation created in 1992 with the assistance of the CIA. Although he was officially demoted in 1999 to be a member of the INC's executive council rather than its leader, he is widely accepted as the first among equals and is spoken of by INC officials as the future president of Iraq. This despite the fact that the US State Department recently found that about half of the $4m it had given to the INC was not properly accounted for. They clearly expected better from a former maths professor and banker, and cut off funding. Chalabi, however, galvanised his US supporters, and the Pentagon and the White House again started picking up the tab. Chalabi is, if nothing else, an operator. One delegate at a New York meeting of the INC said of him: 'He takes more than his share, much more than his share, and I get nothing. Just look at the way he dresses. They say Saddam has 300 suits; well, this guy has 400.' Many Chalabi mannerisms that appeal in the West may have been picked up at his Sussex private school, where he was a member of the cadet corps -- his sole training for planning an invasion of Iraq. Just as the US was forgetting him in the wake of more accusations of financial irregularities, he came up with a plan to unseat Saddam in a choreographed 11-week manoeuvre. The plot, launched at Chalabi's Mayfair home and involving turning untrained volunteers into successful revolutionaries, provided him with the soundbite necessary to capture US policymakers' minds in the wake of September 11. Few stopped to question if it verged on the unrealistic. Convicted embezzlers, accused war criminals and CIA stooges to a man, few if any of those who would dethrone Saddam match up to the proverbial man on a white horse, a respected military officer who can ride in, take control and unite Iraq's fractious tribes and religious groups. Serious questions remain as to the readiness, willingness and fitness to lead of those in main contention. As Said K Aburish, the respected Middle Eastern writer and biographer of Saddam Hussein, concluded: 'I examined my notes of the interviews I conducted with 82 Iraqi opposition leaders, and began identifying those on my list whose thinking resembles Saddam's. To my horror, I decided 75 of the people I interviewed were men who would kill to achieve their goal.' One can only wonder whether Washington has come to the same conclusion, or indeed really cares. Research and additional reporting by Dr Glen Rangwala, lecturer in politics at Trinity College, Cambridge From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 06:03:27 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 06:03:27 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRvz-0007u6-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 06:03:27 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRvq-0001jo-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 06:03:18 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tRvN-0001je-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 06:02:50 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NC1Il31417 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 15:01:18 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NC1FN31223 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 15:01:15 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Global Economy: print money, quick! Thread-Index: AcJi+PZP63A8687XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Global Economy: print money, quick! Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 15:04:12 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 15:04:12 +0300 Central bankers will not repeat mistakes of the 1930s =20 Business desk leader The Sunday Herald, 22 September 2002 =20 ARE we teetering on the brink of a 1930s-style depression, complete with deflation and mounting unemployment, which we will all have to endure for a decade or more? Talk of such a scenario is already doing the rounds of some City-based fund managers, many of whom have worked themselves into a depression almost as deep as the euphoria of the bull run was high. There are indeed disturbing parallels between the Great Depression -- a frightening time when prices fell, investors stopped investing and companies and individuals committed to paying off old loans went bust as lower prices and wages left them unable to repay -- and now. Andy Brough of Schroder's, one of the City's best-known money men, predicts the FTSE-100 index is going to languish below the 6000 mark for a decade. And one of Germany's leading economists believes the world risks following Japan into a deflationary spiral far more serious and prolonged than a conventional recession. 'The people running the world's central banks and those responsible for economic policy should take the signs much more seriously,' says Norbert Walter, Deutsche Bank's chief economist. Walter has been circulating a paper in the hope of influencing the world's decision-makers ahead of the autumn meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank later this month. He warns: 'If we don't get this right, we face a second leg of recession, a double dip, combining with deflation.' 'Look at the facts,' Walter adds. 'Japan has seen deflation over the past three years. Consumers and entrepreneurs are postponing purchase decisions. China is also experiencing a decline in the price level. In the US, consumer price inflation is running at just barely 1%. This means the price level in the US is practically stable, and the augurs now speak of a double dip, a second drop in economic activity.' 'Recession cannot be ruled out, considering the multitude and seriousness of the trouble spots and potential risks to economic growth. To mention just a few -- the accounting scandals, the crisis in Latin America and the looming war with Iraq.' Walter believes we need coordinated international stimulus along neo-Keyne sian lines to shift the world economy back into gear. However, several economic historians, including Michael Bordo, believe the Great Depression was precipitated by US monetary policy and germinated by a series of banking panics, and then infected the rest of the world through the international gold standard. The mechanisms of financial policy are, happily, very different today, and central banks, with the possible exception of the European Central Bank, have been less clumsy in their responses to stock markets' prolonged collapse. Milton Friedman, the father of monetarism and free-market economics (and hence Thatcherism and Reaganomics) sees little prospect of a return to the global deflation of the 1930s. 'I think there is very little chance of that,' Friedman recently told a Canadian newspaper. 'Central banks have learned that the way to avoid deflation is to print money. There may be temporary periods of a year or so. The Japanese experience of six, seven or eight years of deflation has been extreme.' The 90-year-old added that Japan's decision to start 'printing money' would pay dividends. 'The surprise over the next five years may well be Japan. I think it is on the verge of making a comeback.' From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 06:09:32 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 06:09:32 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tS1s-0007wF-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 06:09:32 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tS1f-0001l7-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 06:09:19 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tS1D-0001ky-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 06:08:51 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NC7Kf06760 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 15:07:20 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NC7IN06698 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 15:07:18 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK capital: European interests Thread-Index: AcJi+c6L63A88s7XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK capital: European interests Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 15:10:15 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 15:10:15 +0300 This ought to be indicative of the way British business interests will split when it comes to the pending referendum on eurozone membership. Also of note is the very Poulantzasian point regarding the recreation of the conditions of UK monopoly capital via the spread of the infernal private finance initiative/public private partnership fiasco. And I just love the idiotic Scottish nationalist tone adopted by our correspondent. Especially since Bank of Scotland got swallowed up by the Halifax Bank not so long ago. Bagpipes in Spain herald Continental shift for BoS =20 As the Bank of Scotland opens a new office in Madrid, Valerie Darroch looks at the way ahead for its international finances The Sunday Herald, 22 September 2002 =20 AS the cream of the Spanish business community walked into the glittering trophy room of the Real Madrid football stadium, they were greeted with an incongruous sound -- the skirl of the bagpipes. When George Mitchell, Bank of Scotland divisional chief executive of corporate banking strolled from the dugout to touch the hallowed turf, the message was clear -- the Scots are here and they mean business. The BoS officially opened its new office in Madrid this weekend but, in the months preceding the launch, its team of six have written =DB100 million of new business. They have struck deals with a broad array of clients from lollipop-maker Chupa Chups to a Scottish businessman involved in a residential property development in Marbella. The Madrid team -- led unusually by two bosses, one Scottish, Gordon More, a seasoned deal-maker transferred from Glasgow, and Spanish banker Juan Carlos Gabilondo -- anticipate strong growth across all areas of business from private equity deals to corporate deals, real estate finance and infrastructure deals along the lines of the UK's private finance initiative (PFI) model. The bank's first deal in the country was with Mivisa, the biggest tin can manufacturer in Spain. The bank provided the finance for what ranked as the biggest management buy-in in the country last year. And in a neat synergy, the bank is also able to network locally with Banco Halifax Hispania, a mortgage and savings provider (wholly owned subsidiary of HBOS), which has been operating in Spain since 1993 and which has five offices in the country. Stewart Livingston, head of European corporate business, said that in a deal with a Scots business man to finance a residential property development in Marbella aimed mainly at expat buyers, the bank brought Banco Halifax into the deal to provide mortgages. Livingston is enthusiastic about growth opportunities across the Iberian pensinsula and says the Madrid office will be able to capitalise on prospects in Portugal which offers rich opportunities in infrastructure investments in particular. 'Having grown successful businesses in France, Germany and the Netherlands, Spain was the logical extension of our Continental European network. The office will benefit from the bank's leading positions in Europe in both LBO [leveraged buy-outs] and infrastructure financing, as well as our growing real estate financing operation,' Livingston said. The Madrid launch party's VIP list included a select band of local bankers and venture capitalists, all of whom are potential deal partners for the bank. Livingston said it is becoming increasingly important to offer an integrated Pan-European corporate banking service and this is an area in which the BoS has developed considerable expertise. The bank's London and Paris teams co-operated on a groundbreaking deal earlier this year in France to finance a =DB915m motorway project which was a significant breakthrough in the PFI sector in Continental Europe. The BoS is a leader in financing PFI deals. It is the number one lender to infrastructure projects in the UK and it has notched up =A3100m of equity in PFI projects. Continental European governments are becoming increasingly interested in using the PFI models developed in the UK to finance major projects from housing and education to dams and railways. Livingston said the British ambassador to Spain has been approached by the Spanish government which is keen to learn about the British PFI experience. He said that initially its Continental European offices concentrated largely on private equity deals but now they have a far wider brief and each office can now offer expertise in a number of areas. The model for Continental Europe is to recruit local staff with valuable experience, insight and contacts and to integrate them with expats with backgrounds in key areas such as integrated finance or infrastructure finance. Livingston said that each office is managed by a local national within a few years of the launch and this is now the case in Paris and Frankfurt. 'Each office is now a mini branch of corporate banking,' Livingston said. The pace of growth in Europe is rapid. Livingston has had to find new and bigger premises for his teams in Paris and Frankfurt in the past 12 months and he is already considering establishing new bases in Milan and also Stockholm. Livingston said the Italian market has very good dynamics for private equity and also growing opportunities in infrastructure projects, project finance and real estate. The Nordic countries jointly represented the fastest-growing markets in Continental Europe for buy-outs last year. Livingston is mulling a Stockholm base to serve all the Nordic area and said there is good scope for structured finance oil deals in the region and also for real estate deals. The bank has a 60-strong team operating in Continental Europe and Livingston expects this to increase to 90 within a couple of years. The bank wants to export three key products -- infrastructure, integrated finance and real estate finance. 'We're looking to significantly expand real estate activities across Continental Europe, largely focussed on senior debt, mezzannine debt and equity,' Livingston said. The BoS has enjoyed great success in Germany where it is the top foreign bank in the league table of mid-market MBOs. Since opening in Frankfurt in 1997, the bank has completed 13 MBOs with a total value of just under =DB700m, beating even the mighty Deutsche Bank. It will open a new office in Munich next month to capitalise on an active deal market in Bavaria. Livingston said the German deal market is split with 35 private equity houses in Frankfurt and 21 in Munich and deals are done on a regional basis. While there is always strong competition from local and international banks, the bank's Scottish identity is a key strength. 'An important part of our European strategy is that we are a Scottish bank which is also very local. The fact that we're Scottish is a huge benefit,' he said. In the Netherlands, the corporate banking team share an Amsterdam office with EUBOS the bank's successful internet mortgage business. The BoS has done several key deals with ABN Amro, who would rather partner with an international bank than local rival ING. 'We're the premier corporate player among international banks in the Netherlands,' Livingston said. Recent Dutch deals include a =DB125m deal with chemical distributor Univar. The bank did a recent Belgian deal with ABN Amro involving the sale and leaseback of a batch of Belgian government properties. 'The Dutch came to us because they believed we were the best guys to analyse and execute the deal quickly,' Livingston said. The bank is a leading player in property and has built up a close relationship with The Whitehall Fund, the property investment arm of Goldman Sachs. The bank clearly has its sights set on some glittering prizes on the Continent. As the bank's top corporate team posed beside the gleaming trophies won by the stars of Real Madrid, they made a few self-deprecating jokes about Scottish football talent. But when it comes to determination to winning in the competitive European banking market -- to a man, they were in deadly earnest. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 07:03:49 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:03:49 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tSsL-0000Yt-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:03:45 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tSs4-0002Md-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:03:28 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tSqQ-0002M2-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:01:46 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8ND0DG30079 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:00:13 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8ND0BN30017 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:00:11 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Global Economy: Stiglitz speaks Thread-Index: AcJjATHs63A9Cs7XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Global Economy: Stiglitz speaks Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:03:08 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:03:08 +0300 The disastrous consequences of instability By Joseph Stiglitz Financial Times: September 23 2002 Our world is as prone to financial crisis as ever. Officials from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank should remind themselves of that as they prepare for their annual meetings next week. With the collapse of Argentina, and Brazil and Turkey appearing, at various times, to be near the brink, the past 12 months have once again underlined our failure to tackle basic problems. But it is not just the countries in, or near, crisis that are disillusioned. Throughout Latin America, where liberalisation, privatisation and stabilisation - controlling inflation - have proceeded apace, countries are still waiting for the promised rewards. Growth in the 1990s was just over half of what it was in the pre-reform decades, while increased labour market flexibility has brought lower wages but not lower unemployment. It is true that progress has been made. For example, the IMF has reconsidered its stance on capital market liberalisation. It is also rethinking the use of bail-outs, which have proved largely unsuccessful, and is talking more about poverty and participation than before. But a number of fundamental problems remain. First, there is a basic instability with the current system, which focuses on countries with trade deficits. By definition, the sum of the trade deficits must equal the surpluses; if some countries, such as Japan and China, insist on having a surplus, in the aggregate the rest must be in deficit. If one country reduces its deficit - as normally happens after a crisis - it simply appears somewhere else in the global system. The system has behaved perhaps better than might be expected because the US has acted as the deficit-of-last-resort. But for how much longer can the richest country continue to borrow from the rest? How long will the appetite of the rest of the world for American bonds and equities continue? Second, it is much harder for poor countries to bear the risks of exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations than it is for rich ones, but they are forced to bear those risks. The consequences of this imbalance are often disastrous. Debt burdens that look moderate become unbearable after big devaluations. This year Moldova, already desperately poor, will spend about 75 per cent of its government's income on debt repayments. Markets have failed to develop appropriate mechanisms for risk distribution; the international economic institutions should at least begin to discuss undertaking this role. Given the large number of countries with unsustainable debt, there is a need for giving better advice on risk management. And since every loan has both a borrower and a lender, and the lenders are supposedly more sophisticated at risk management than the poor borrowers, much of the fault must lie at the foot of the lenders. Third, the experience in Argentina has shown that we have also failed to learn how to manage crises when they occur. Sure, Argentina bears some share of the blame; but even if it had done everything the IMF recommended, and there had been no corruption, there is little reason to believe that it would have avoided the crisis, or that the crisis would have been less profound. Assume Argentina had been "good" and had received an IMF loan. Would foreign investors have started to pour into a country that was still in depression? It is hardly likely. We need policies designed to reactivate the real economy, which means creating markets for Argentina's goods and providing credit to its companies. A World Bank study shows that what drove the Mexican recovery was trade with the US, financed by American importers, more than the IMF bail-out. East Asia's recovery was spurred by Japan's Miyazawa initiative, which provided billions in trade credit. We have had nothing like this to offer Argentina. Fourth, trade agreements need to be made fairer. Among the principal successes of the United Nations summit on poverty last March was the US's commitment to increase aid. But that also showed how paltry aid has been so far. There was another achievement of that meeting: it made clear that finance issues could not be separated from other aspects of the economy. Exports provide revenue and jobs but trade negotiations have been asymmetric: the north has not done enough to open its markets to the south. Larger US agriculture subsidies have made things even worse. Finance ministers should lean on their trade colleagues to make the Doha round of trade negotiations truly a development round. Fifth, trade should be used as an instrument of economic stability. In the past, countries facing an economic downturn or an onslaught of imports have raised tariffs to protect themselves. These beggar-thy-neighbour policies exacerbated the Great Depression. Would a positive trade policy of temporarily opening up markets to countries in crisis not be better? Additional sales of Argentine wine, beef and wheat would help to resuscitate the country's economy more than the billions of dollars of high finance. Sixth, September 11 and the war on terrorism have again raised the question of transparency in the financial sector. The enervating effects of secret bank accounts on the developing world have yet to be tackled head on. They are central in facilitating the corruption, tax evasion and drug money laundering that weaken so many developing countries. The question of transparency also applies to the international economic institutions, where there are growing concerns over governance structures. Changing the arrangements will prove slow and tortuous, but greater transparency meanwhile would help. Finally, there will be some discussion at the World Bank/IMF meetings of government bankruptcy and the IMF's proposal for a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism. But there is a concern about the central role that the IMF would like to assume. Can a single creditor play a central role in the bankruptcy process - other than as one among several creditors? Clearly, it cannot be the bankruptcy judge. But that makes clear that a discussion of bankruptcy reform, in an institution in which the creditors dominate, would be like delegating bankruptcy reform in the US to the financial institutions. No democracy would find this acceptable. Globalisation, including global financial flows, is of concern to ordinary people, not just to finance ministers and central bank governors. Yet their voices are not being heard. Rethinking the global economic architecture to ensure that they are is the most important challenge facing the global community today. I hope that this too will be on the agenda at the IMF/World Bank meetings. The writer is professor of economics at Columbia university, and was formerly chief economist of the World Bank From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 07:05:45 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:05:45 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tSuC-0000by-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:05:40 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tStt-0002NB-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:05:21 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tSrd-0002MU-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:03:01 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8ND1T131104 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:01:29 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8ND1RN31042 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:01:27 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US/Russia tensions: Iraq Thread-Index: AcJjAV9N63A9EM7XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US/Russia tensions: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:04:24 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:04:24 +0300 Putin's fragile balance with US over Iraq By Robert Cottrell in Moscow Financial Times: September 23 2002 A year has passed almost to the day since President Vladimir Putin gave the landmark foreign policy speech in which he said Russia would support US action in Afghanistan against the Taliban, and the US use of military bases in central Asia. Whatever Mr Putin expected to follow in terms of Russia's foreign relations, he cannot be entirely happy with what he has now. He finds himself pressed to back an impending second US action, this time in Iraq, which, to Russia, has little justification or merit. Mr Putin knows his stance will have little effect on US behaviour. The US has made clear its readiness to oust the Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, with or without broad international help. But Mr Putin also knows his actions may assume great short-term importance, because Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council. If the US and Britain push ahead with a motion seeking more explicit UN authority for military action, or making a more explicit threat of it, Russia could veto the motion. It would be lobbied hard by Baghdad, its old friend, to do so. Nodding such a motion through could, on the other hand, help trigger military action. To dismiss Iraq's recent offer on the admission of UN arms inspectors, and to attack instead, would "introduce into international law the notion that every country can liquidate or interfere in the political process of another country on the grounds that it doesn't like its political leader", says Vladimir Lukin, a leading liberal Russian parliamentarian. For all Russia's recent closeness to the US, decades of pro-Arab foreign policy has left its mark. An easy abandonment of Mr Hussein would be controversial in Moscow. If "regime change" has to come in Iraq, then, from Mr Putin's point of view, it would best come as a quick, unilateral, and successful US action. But if Russia must be involved diplomatically, Mr Putin's calculations will start with Russian-US relations, the priority of his foreign policy for the past year. The hesitations of Europe will count for little. Russia's closer relationship with the US means it no longer needs European leaders to lobby for its interests in Washington. Rather, it sees the US as a potential ally in tussles with Europe. Mr Putin is still experimenting with ways to get the best out of the US relationship. In the wake of September 11 he began by bidding for US goodwill. He closed two military bases overseas, calmly accepted US withdrawal from the anti-ballistic missile treaty, and quieted his generals when the US sent military instructors into Georgia, a Russian neighbour. But around the time of his summit with George W. Bush in May, Mr Putin changed tack, apparently judging his "nice guy" approach to yield too little in return. He began challenging the US on some issues, though not to the point of putting the new-found friendship at serious risk. He has insisted on cultivating ties with Iran, Iraq and North Korea, the three states the US calls an "axis of evil". Recently he threatened military action in Georgia, accusing it of giving safe haven to rebels fighting a civil war in the neighbouring Russian republic of Chechnya. This tougher line may not stop Mr Putin supporting the US in the UN Security Council, but it may raise his price for doing so. One diplomat says Moscow wants an explicit statement from the US recognising Russia's claimed economic interests in Iraq. These would include at least $7bn of unpaid sovereign debt, and big oil and infrastructure contracts promised by Mr Hussein's regime to Russian companies. Russia is also pressing for US help in Georgia, where it is playing a complicated game. By accusing Georgia of harbouring Chechen rebels, Russia is shifting to Georgia part of the blame for its own failure to end the war in Chechnya. It is also attacking personally Eduard Shevardnadze, the Georgian leader, viewed by Moscow as anti-Russian. But for that strategy to pay off, Russia needs the US to steer Mr Shevardnadze towards a compromise with Moscow, not to back him in a confrontation. An alternative scenario is that Mr Putin might block a new UN resolution on Iraq, if he thinks relations with the US would survive the dispute. Sergei Karaganov, a leading Russian political scientist, sees this as a possible calculation. "I do not think, even in the event of a split at the Security Council, our relations with the US will dramatically worsen," Mr Karaganov says. "Our two sides have decided to co-operate and not to quarrel more than they can help, and to stick to that decision in a pragmatic way . . . we will quarrel just a little." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 07:11:03 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:11:03 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tSzO-0000fy-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:11:02 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tSyM-0002Rk-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:09:58 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tSv2-0002Nt-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:06:32 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8ND50P00955 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:05:00 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8ND4xN00892 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:04:59 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US imperialism: ally management Thread-Index: AcJjAd0k63A9Fs7XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: ally management Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:07:55 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:07:55 +0300 Here's Democratic Party-supporting FT US commentator Gerard Baker on the Bush administration's supposedly "deft" handling of its allies. Very nice quote, though: "In truth, we are all a bit unilateralist and a bit multilateralist. The precise balance is determined by our military and political ability to get our way." America strikes a new bargain with the world By Gerard Baker Financial Times; Sep 19, 2002 The spectacle of France and Russia dutifully jumping through hoops Saddam Hussein has set for them at the UN Security Council serves only to emphasise how significant was the victory Colin Powell secured last week in formulating the US approach to a showdown with Iraq. The hawkish crowd at the Pentagon and in the White House had warned all along about precisely this risk. Going the UN route would leave US national security interests at the mercy of the cunning Iraqis, the calculating Russians and the cavilling French, they said. But the secretary of state and his supporters inside and outside the administration assured President Bush they could handle the diplomatic gymnastics necessary to get around Iraq's manoeuvrings. And last week, in what even critics acknowledge was one of the most persuasive and impressive performances by any US president at the UN, Mr Bush carefully placed the US on the diplomatic path. Assuming (as diplomats were yesterday) that the current Franco-Russian obstructionism is only a bit of posturing, the no-longer-underrated Mr Powell should still be able to make good on his promise. That is not to say, as some believe, that the US has turned away from a confrontation with Iraq. The genius of the speech was that, without deflecting the US from its ultimate aim of eliminating Mr Hussein, it gave the rest of the world the cover it needs to get on board the US-led bandwagon. The events of the last week have shed much new light on the dynamic equilibrium of the international system in the post-cold war, post-September 11 world. It would be wrong to assume that the UN d=FDmarche is a victory for multilateralism; but it would be equally wrong to suppose it marked a thinly disguised triumph for US unilateralism. In fact the unilateralism/ multilateralism dichotomy supposedly brought into play by the combination of the arrival of the Bush administration and the acts of the September 11 terrorists was always something of a false dialectic. In truth, we are all a bit unilateralist and a bit multilateralist. The precise balance is determined by our military and political ability to get our way. Is there a single neo-conservative in Washington, who, given the choice between acting alone, for all America's undeniable might, and acting with the support of other nations, would not choose to get international support? Is there a single country in Europe or the Arab world that, faced with what it believed to be a profound threat to its security, and armed with the capacity to neutralise it, would not do so, even if the "international community" opposed it? Here, one has to concede, to use the terminology of John Rawls, that there might be a distinction between "act unilateralism" and "rule unilateralism". Countries committed to a multilateral approach might be prepared to pass up acting alone in the face of a grave threat in the interests of maintaining a multilateral cohesion to deal with even bigger threats. But the point is still the same. If the threat is sizeable enough, and if it can be neutralised, few nations would sacrifice themselves on the altar of multilateralism. The essential truth of the modern era is that the US has the power, for the most part, to achieve its aims; other nations do not. But, as the Iraq issue demonstrates, the equation is more complex than that. The right way to look at it is not some great struggle between multilateralism and unilateralism but as a bargain. The US and the rest of the world each need to decide whether having the US act alone is in their respective interests. The factors in this decision are twofold - the risk of instability on one side and the risk of irrelevance on the other. Instability and its consequence - the emergence of a longer-term threat to its security - is the risk the US must always weigh when it considers what action to take in promoting its own interests. The military planners and neo-conservative hardliners may have been confident about the likely success of any operation in Iraq - both in military and broader political terms. But they could never quite banish the nagging doubt that, if the US acted alone (or with Britain, which amounts almost to the same thing) it would stoke violent anti-American sentiment in the region and increase global instability in a way that would come back to haunt them. The rest of the world faced its own persistent doubt. The Arab nations, the Europeans, the Russians and the Chinese may have believed that unilateral US action would light a fire of instability in the region. But they could never quite extinguish the nagging fear that the US hawks might be right after all - that a quick victory in Baghdad would knock down one of the largest obstacles towards democratic progress and peace throughout the Middle East. If that happened these nations would confront the nightmare reality that they are, essentially, irrelevant in the great edifice of the international system. The US really could get its way. And so a bargain was struck. By bringing the rest of the world on board through some ingenious diplomatic language and measures at the UN, the US has limited the risk of instability if it strikes Saddam Hussein. With the Saudis now saying they could back US action, presumably to be followed by other Arab states, the chances of a catastrophe have fallen. At the same time, by clambering aboard the USled bandwagon, the rest of the world has kept alive its faith in its relevance in a unipolar world. Other governments can say, with some plausibility, that it was only their support for or acquiescence in a US-led campaign that ensured its success and a broader stability as a result. If both sides can only hold to it, it should, like all good bargains, make everybody better off. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 07:13:18 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:13:18 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT1V-0000gT-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:13:13 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT1D-0002Sm-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:12:55 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tSyA-0002RS-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:09:47 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8ND89M03984 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:08:09 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8ND86N03854 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:08:06 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: China/Japan: new auto alliance Thread-Index: AcJjAkzZ63A9HM7XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] China/Japan: new auto alliance Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:11:03 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:11:03 +0300 Dongfeng and Nissan to form vehicle group By James Kynge in Beijing and David Ibison in Tokyo Financial Times; Sep 19, 2002 Nissan Motor of Japan and Dongfeng, the third largest Chinese auto company, are expected to announce today the biggest foreign investment in a state-run company since Beijing joined the World Trade Organisation last year, and unveil a vehicle powerhouse to rival market leader Volkswagen. Nissan was scheduled to pay Rmb8.55bn (US$1.03bn) for a 50 per cent stake in a new company called Dongfeng Motor, into which all the car and commercial vehicle assets of the existing Dongfeng Automobile Co - also valued at Rmb8.55bn - are to be injected, according to sources close to the deal. Nissan 's 50 per cent stake represents the maximum that foreign partners are allowed under China's WTO accession agreement, and signals the intent of Dongfeng to embark upon a restructuring strategy of the type that Carlos Ghosn, Nissan president, has masterminded in Japan. Nissan , which is 44 per cent owned by Renault, is due to appoint half the management staff at Dongfeng Motor, ceding the Japanese company a level of management control hitherto unseen among foreign partners in a Chinese vehicle joint venture. Details of the deal, which was arranged by Goldman Sachs over several months, stipulate that the new company will emerge stripped of much of the debt carried by its state-owned parent. Later, a plan to streamline operations by shedding staff and upgrading technology is to be launched. Industry analysts said that government approval for the acquisition showed Beijing's resolve to introduce competition and force a rationalisation in the overcrowded vehicle market. Dongfeng Motor, which is to start with an annual production capacity of some 60,000 cars and 160,000 commercial vehicles, represents a significant new source of competition to Volkswagen, Toyota and General Motors, all of which have large joint ventures already operating in the booming China market. The joint venture will initially concentrate on building Dongfeng's brand and on quality control before launching Nissan-branded cars such as the Bluebird and the Sunny after a year or so. Dongfeng controls 12 per cent of the Chinese vehicle market. In August, Toyota, Japan's largest carmaker, agreed a joint venture with First Automotive Works (FAW), China's biggest car company, to produce up to 400,000 cars annually by 2010. The venture was valued at $1.27bn, compared with today's $2.06bn deal. In the first seven months of this year, China's car sales reached 599,445 vehicles, up 44 per cent from the same period last year. ----- Nissan puts faith in drive into China By James Kynge Financial Times; Sep 20, 2002 Carlos Ghosn, president and chief executive of Nissan, declared "China is Nissan 's new frontier" at the announcement of a $1bn investment into a 50:50 joint venture with Dongfeng, China's third largest auto maker. His comment yesterday was not hyperbole. Not only does Nissan 's promised cash contribution to the new venture equal the largest single overseas investment made by the Japanese company, but the new company's production targets are among the most ambitious seen in China's booming market. By 2006, Dongfeng Motor aims to sell 550,000 units - 220,000 Nissan -branded cars and 330,000 Dongfeng-branded commercial vehicles. Then, within 10 years, it plans to increase this to an annual output of 900,000. Such a strategy, says Mr Ghosn, would turn Dongfeng into a globally competitive automaker within 10 years. It would also secure Dongfeng's position as one of a handful of Chinese vehicle makers expected to survive a wave of mergers over the next decade among about 140 current manufacturers. Nissan has arrived late to China; some of its main competitors - Honda, Toyota, Volkswagen, General Motors and Peugeot - are already ensconced with Chinese joint venture partners. But Mr Ghosn said the size of the investment had meant that "we can move bigger, we can move better and we can move faster". Industry analysts saw much to praise in Nissan 's approach. They said the Japanese company, which is 44 per cent owned by Renault, the French carmaker, was a good fit for Dongfeng because it was focused mainly on commercial vehicles while Nissan produced mainly cars. In addition, Dongfeng, a state-owned company based in the southern province of Hubei, had a relatively healthy balance sheet. It has an operating profit margin of 8 per cent, operating profits of Rmb2.69bn ($0.3bn) in 2001 and explicit government backing as one of the companies that Beijing would like to see survive the projected industry rationalisation. Dongfeng Motor's level of net debt, estimated by one executive at Rmb5bn, is also modest compared with projected sales in 2002 of Rmb46bn. Under the deal, Nissan will be able to appoint half the board of the new company and select the president. Dongfeng will appoint the chairman. Analysts said the prominent positions taken by Nissan staff indicated the willingness of Dongfeng to allow Mr Ghosn and his colleagues to take the lead in restructuring the company. >From next year, when the management team is installed, a comprehensive strategy to streamline Dongfeng's operations is expected to be launched. The company will face several hurdles. The first is oversupply in the market, which, coupled with falling import tariffs following China's accession to the World Trade Organisation, is causing the prices of most vehicles to fall. Yale Zhang, senior associate at Auto Resources Asia, a consultancy, predicted prices would fall by 5 to 10 per cent every year for the next several years, putting pressure on Dongfeng's 8 per cent operating margin unless cost cutting is successful. Mr Zhang said only 60 per cent of vehicle capacity in China is currently in use. The situation could become more serious, despite car sales that grew by 44 per cent in the first seven months to 599,445 units, by far the fastest growth in any of the world's main markets. In addition, although Dongfeng appeared sincere in its participation yesterday, problems could arise if Nissan's cars start to compete for market share with those of Peugeot, another Dongfeng partner. Peugeot has recently promised to pump more investment into its flagging joint venture, making Picasso cars at just one fifth of its 150,000 capacity. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 07:15:20 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:15:20 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT3X-0000mW-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:15:19 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT3J-0002U5-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:15:05 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tSzo-0002SQ-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:11:28 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8ND9s205475 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:09:54 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8ND9pN05346 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:09:51 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Germany: economic prognosis Thread-Index: AcJjAouz63A9Ic7XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Germany: economic prognosis Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:12:48 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:12:48 +0300 Germany sits on the brink of deflation By David Barker Financial Times; Sep 18, 2002 The bursting ofthe bubble in US equity prices, particularly for technology, media and telecommunications stocks, has led some commentators to draw parallels with the Japanese situation at the end of the 1980s. The US may suffer a decade of lost growth, just as Japan did during the 1990s, they argue. But when looking for a country most likely to be sucked into a deflationary trap, people should focus on Germany, not the US. Consider the following parallels between Germany and Japan. Domestic final sales - gross domestic product excluding the contribution to growth from stockbuilding and net trade - are a good measure of the underlying ability of an economy to generate its own growth. German domestic final sales fell 1.9 per cent year on year in the second quarter of this year, worse even than the low point of the 1993 recession. In Japan, sales were 0.8 per cent down on a year earlier during the same period, after an even worse performance during the first quarter. Clearly both countries are suffering from a deep malaise. Contrast that with the situation in the US, the UK, France and Canada, where domestic final sales have grown about 2 per cent in the past 12 months. Both Japan and Germany have lost control over real short-term interest rates. For Japan, this is because nominal short rates have reached the lower limit of zero and inflation is stuck in negative territory. For Germany, the European Central Bank has to set interest rates to achieve price stability across all eurozone countries. Though the cause is different, the effect is the same: interest rates are too high for both Germany and Japan. One method for determining the right level for interest rates - the so-called Taylor rule - would imply that interest rates in Germany should be as much as 3 percentage points lower than in the rest of the eurozone and below the ECB's current refinancing rate. For Japan, the same method would suggest that official interest rates should be significantly below zero. Both Germany and Japan also suffer from high real effective exchange rates. Japan's persistently high current account surplus prevents a meaningful decline in the yen's exchange rate. Meanwhile, Germany's exchange rate has been irre vocably fixed against its main trading partners within the eurozone, giving it limited scope to achieve a depreciation. So, with too-high official interest rates and still strong exchange rates, the two countries suffer from inappropriately tight monetary conditions. Both countries are also unable aggressively to stimulate the economy via a loosening of the fiscal stance. Japan cannot afford to do so because the size of the deficit is already high. In the face of zero nominal growth and an already high debt to GDP ratio, Japan is under pressure to reduce its deficit. Germany's flexibility is cramped by the eurozone's growth and stability pact, which requires Germany to prevent its high fiscal deficit from rising further. Demographics show that Japan and Germany will suffer from a shrinking and ageing population during the next 40 years, although German demographics are not quite as bad as Japan's. Not only do ageing populations have an increased incentive to save, reducing consumption growth, but they also place increased strain on pension systems. According to projections from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, pension expenditures in Germany and Japan will rise more quickly than in nearly every other OECD country during the next 40 years. That will place pressure on the governments to reduce the value of public pensions, cut back on other types of public expenditure, or raise taxes. The financial sectors in Japan and Germany are similar, insofar as both economies typically rely on bank lending to finance corporate activity, and in both countries there are close ties between the management of the big banks and corporations. As the corporate sectors of Japan and Germany have suffered there has been a lack of market discipline imposed on corporations; and the weakening influence on the banking sectors' balance sheets has restricted their ability to finance business start-ups. Both countries are experiencing a decline in bank lending. A last structural similarity is that Japan and Germany have relatively rigid labour markets. It is true both have made some progress in tackling this problem. However, neither is close to best practice of other OECD countries. During the past 10 years, Germany's unemployment rate has risen by 2.3 percentage points and Japan's by 3.3 percentage points; unemployment in the rest of the OECD has fallen by 1 percentage point. Clearly, this is partly evidence of the lack of growth in Germany and Japan. But it also reflects an inefficient labour market. Of course, there are differences too. Inflation in Germany, though low, has remained positive. Japanese inflation, by contrast, has been negative for the past four years. That means existing Japanese debt holders cannot rely on inflation to reduce the real burden of their debt. And with higher inflation and lower public debt, Germany's government can run a bigger sustainable deficit than Japan. Equity prices have also been falling for longer in Japan than in Germany. In both countries, the main equity market indices have roughly halved since their early 2000 peaks. But in the previous 10 years, German equity prices quadrupled while Japanese prices fell nearly 40 per cent. Severe structural problems combined with ineffective policy and poor demographics can condemn a country to a sustained period of low or zero growth and falling prices. Once within a deflationary spiral, it becomes increasingly hard to break out. Japan has suffered from this combination for at least a decade. Germany stands on the brink: it has many of the same structural problems as Japan and since joining EMU has lost monetary and fiscal policy flexibility. While its demographics are not as bad as Japan's, Germany is already experiencing its biggest contraction in domestic final sales for at least 20 years. Deflation may be just around the corner. The writer is chief European economist at Moore Capital From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 07:16:35 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:16:35 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT4l-0000oG-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:16:35 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT4X-0002Uw-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:16:21 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT29-0002TS-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:13:54 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NDCMS08661 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:12:22 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NDCKN08599 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:12:20 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US imperialism: Caspian Sea oil Thread-Index: AcJjAuQ663A9KM7XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Caspian Sea oil Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:15:17 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:15:17 +0300 White elephant turns into symbol of triumph over doubt By David Stern Financial Times; Sep 17, 2002 After years of controversy, construction will start tomorrow on a $3bn pipeline designed to carry crude from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean. The presidents of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey are expected to attend the inauguration ceremony in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. The idea of the pipeline actually being built would have come as a shock to many industry experts only two years ago, when it was being described as a white elephant, only being taken seriously because it enjoyed strong backing from the US government. The formal beginning of the project follows a decision last month by a nine-member consortium to proceed. The group - which includes BP, the project's operator, Norway's Statoil, Unocal of the US and the Azeri state oil company Socar - also awarded initial construction contracts. The 1,760km Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is scheduled to be finished by the beginning of 2005, in time for some 450,000 barrels per day from BP's main Caspian interest, the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli offshore structure. It has been called the most political pipeline ever built. The project was said to be uncommercial because there was not enough oil in the Caspian to fill it. US officials said they wanted it because Caspian producers should enjoy a variety of export options and because oil shipped to the Mediterranean offered the best choice both economically and environmentally. Others, however, perceived a not-so-hidden attempt to lock Russia and Iran out of the Caspian oil game. Tehran was lobbying hard to swap Caspian oil in the country's north in exchange for Iranian crude in the south. Russia, for its part, already maintained a stranglehold on oil coming from Kazakhstan, and shipped a portion of Azerbaijan's production. US officials said privately that they wished to avoid too much dependence on Transneft, the Russian pipeline monopoly. What has happened in the meantime to make the pipeline a reality, say some observers, is that oil companies, faced with pressure from the US government, found their own arguments for building it. In this way, the pipeline's political basis did not disappear, but rather was folded into the commercial considerations. "What is new is that this is still a political pipeline, but at the same time the companies' commercial motive is clearly in line," says Christopher Langton, an analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies. At the same time, the region has seen a realignment of forces, with Moscow finding more common cause with Washington since September 11. Previous objections to BTC, which were already on the wane, accordingly melted away. "Russia gradually concluded that there was nothing they could realistically do about it - and more importantly, that its negative effect on Russian interests would be marginal or zero," says Laurent Ruseckas, Caspian region analyst for the US-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates. The pipeline, then, rather than creating a new geopolitical reality, merely underlines the one that already exists. Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey are as ever staunchly pro-western, while Iran still finds itself the odd man out in the region. Likewise, BP dropped its argument that there was not enough oil yet to justify construction. The UK multinational now says that, based on the reserves of the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli fields it operates, the pipeline is commercial. One of the issues remaining is the question of how to structure the project's finance. Thirty per cent of costs will come from the companies' own equity, while 70 per cent will be borrowed from international banks and lending institutions. Officials familiar with the project say lenders are examining closely the project's details, since the pipeline crosses a region rife with political and environmental risks. But few observers expect the pipeline company to fail to come up with the needed cash. At the worst, they say, companies will have to pay costs out of their own pockets until early next year, when finance details should be completed. Another important obstacle was removed recently, when Heydar Aliyev, the Azeri president, published a decree describing how his cash-strapped former Soviet country would come up with the approximately $200m required for its participation. ----- Pipeline stake for Japanese By David Stern Financial Times; Sep 19, 2002 Japan's Inpex oil company will buy a 2.5 per cent stake in a planned US-backed $3bn (EUR3bn) pipeline to carry oil from the Caspian Sea to the Turkish Mediterranean. Inpex also holds a 8.33 per cent share in the massive Kashagan offshore oil project in Kazakhstan's sector of the Caspian, operated by Italy's Agip. The announcement yesterday was seen as a move to bolster the project's economic basis. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 07:18:35 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:18:35 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT6h-0000uq-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:18:35 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT6L-0002WH-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:18:13 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT3p-0002Ub-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:15:37 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NDE5o10358 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:14:05 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NDE4N10296 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:14:04 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: South Africa: more unwelcome advice? Thread-Index: AcJjAyJl63A9Lc7XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] South Africa: more unwelcome advice? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:17:01 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:17:01 +0300 Professor advises Mbeki By Jonathan Guthrie Financial Times; Sep 17, 2002 Kumar Bhattacharyya, the authority on manufacturing at Warwick University, has been appointed international science and technology adviser to Thabo Mbeki, the president of South Africa. Bhattacharyya, who also advises the British, Indian and Malaysian governments on industrial policy, advises Mbeki on ways of raising growth and increasing the competitiveness of public and private organisations. Warwick Manufacturing Group, the university's research and consultancy organisation set up by Bhattacharyya, has trained about 500 senior managers in South African organisations in the past six years. Another 800 are in the process of completing their qualifications. The professor, 62, said South Africa had built up a strong position in civil engineering and mechanical expertise but had suffered as a result of emigration by white professionals and historically low levels of education among the black population. "It has the potential to be a highly competitive nation but growth is not fast enough," he said. However, he is likely to advise against wholesale privatisation. "You cannot just copy the western formula. Privatisation there needs to be done in a very structured way." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 07:20:39 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:20:39 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT8g-000105-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:20:38 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT8R-0002X4-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:20:23 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT5v-0002Vv-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:17:47 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NDGGK12520 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:16:16 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NDGEN12457 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:16:14 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Africa: Gadaffi vs. US, UK Thread-Index: AcJjA2/B63A9M87XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Africa: Gadaffi vs. US, UK Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:19:11 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:19:11 +0300 Gadaffi's caravan treks south of the Sahara By Nicol degli Innocenti, Lucy Jones and James Lamont Financial Times; Sep 17, 2002 On a visit to Tripoli this year, South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki received a gift of a Mercedes armoured limousine from his Libyan host. A little overwhelmed by President Muammer Gadaffi's generosity, South African officials said the gift would find a discreet home in the government car pool. A month later, Mr Gadaffi arrived in South Africa for the launch of the African Union (AU), the rejuvenated Organisation of African Unity. He brought with him 40 limousines, a stash of small arms, an entourage of bodyguards and ambitions for a United States of Africa. Over the years Mr Gadaffi has lent his notoriously volatile patronage to African independence and rebel movements. He backed Uganda's President Idi Amin and the rebel movements of Charles Taylor in Liberia and Foday Sankoh in Sierra Leone. More recently, he has lost interest in plans for a federation of Arab states and turned peacemaker, promoting initiatives in Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia and Congo. "Libya can no longer depend on the Arabs," said Mr Gadaffi. "Africa, not oil, is now the hope of Libya." Mr Gadaffi vies for leadership of Africa with Mr Mbeki. At the launch of the African Union (AU) in July, he bowed to the South African president's promotion of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (Nepad), a plan to build democracy and good governance in return for greater aid and investment from the developed world. He is expected to join the steering committee on Nepad, despite telling the AU's founding meeting: "Those who want to give us assistance are welcome, but those who want to impose conditions on us, this will be seen as a humiliation." But unease remains among Nepad's promoters as Mr Gadaffi campaigns for the putative AU parliament, and its armed forces, to be based in Libya. His own pan-African scheme has Tripoli as the seat of government of a united Africa and home of a pan-African development bank. One of the latest converts is Swaziland, which accorded Libya diplomatic recognition shortly after the AU launch. More strategic - and potentially lucrative - allies are Zimbabwe and Central African Republic (CAR). In both, Libya has filled the vacuum left by the former colonial powers, Britain and France, to seal economic and political links. In CAR, that has meant armed protection for President Ange F=FDlix Patass=FD and a 99-year agreement that opens the way to Libyan development of oil and other minerals. "The agreement concerns all resources, notably diamonds, gold, copper, iron and if possible oil," said Andr=FD Dorogo, the CAR's mining minister. "It's a matter of us trying together to profit from Libya's experience." In cash-strapped Zimbabwe, likewise, Libya's supply of fuel has allowed President Robert Mugabe to pursue his controversial programme to transfer white-owned land to landless blacks without the economy grinding to a halt. Last week during a visit to Tripoli the Zimbabwe leader signed a $360m barter deal under which Libya will supply 70 per cent of Zimbabwe's oil needs, in exchange for agricultural produce and shares in state enterprises. The agreement also envisages alignment of foreign policies and opens the way to Libyan investment in mining, tourism and agriculture in Zimbabwe - including, according to some reports, exploitation of land seized from white farmers. "Libya's motive in supplying the Mugabe regime is to cement the relationship it has with key states in Africa as part of a drive to build support outside of the EU and US," says Eddie George of Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change. "But it is also to make a profit for Tamoil (the Libyan state oil company) and other interests which will then be ploughed into the Zimbabwe economy where assets can be obtained for very little." If Mr Gadaffi's populist, anti-western rhetoric strikes a chord south of the Sahara, Libyan petro-dollars offer a well-targeted alternative to conventional aid for some of Africa's most fragile states. It is a measure of Mr Gadaffi 's growing clout that Africa is backing Libya - in the teeth of opposition from both the US and human rights groups - to chair the United Nations Human Rights Commission. And in the African Union, which he wants to be run from Tripoli, Mr Gadaffi's influence promises to be profound. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 07:22:30 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:22:30 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTAU-00013y-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:22:30 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTA6-0002YG-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:22:06 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tT80-0002Wv-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:19:56 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NDIPs14614 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:18:25 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NDINN14542 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:18:23 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Malaysia: despair at US policy Thread-Index: AcJjA7yP63A9Os7XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Malaysia: despair at US policy Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:21:20 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:21:20 +0300 Mahathir despairs at 'racist' war By John Thornhill and John Burton Financial Times; Sep 17, 2002 For the past 21 years Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia's domineering prime minister, has devoted his considerable energies to preventing the country's diverse ethnic and religious groups from boiling over into communal violence. As a result of rapid economic development and affirmative action for the mainly Muslim Malay population, Dr Mahathir has succeeded in creating a vibrant nation of 23m people largely at peace with itself, confounding the sceptics who have argued that Islam is somehow incompatible with modernity. But in a broad-ranging interview yesterday, Dr Mahathir seemed to be in a state of near-despair about the likely consequences of western military action against Iraq, underscoring previously expressed fears that it could lead to the worst international crisis since the second world war. In his view, any move to topple the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein would deepen the Muslim world's suspicions of western motives and standards, and could spark communal violence across the globe. "The perception is that Muslim countries seem to be the target everywhere - Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Chechnya, Iran, Iraq," he said. "It is a question of injustice. It seems that it is all right for Palestinians to die and Afghans to die. Thousands of Bosnians died, 200,000 died, and the world watched on TV and did nothing," he said. "But if you kill anybody else that is wrong." Sitting before a picture window in the newly opened finance ministry building that overlooks the half-completed showcase capital of Putrajaya, Dr Mahathir said he believed that this attitude was symptomatic of a new "racism" reminiscent of that practised by the British in colonial times. "The feeling is that a western life is much more valuable than anybody else's. It is all right for others to die but don't you dare touch westerners." Although the Malaysian prime minister had some respectful words to say about Colin Powell, the US secretary of state, Dr Mahathir was withering about Washington's international strategy for tackling terrorism. He said Washington was "over-reacting" to the threat and was failing to address the root causes of anger and bitterness among the Muslim world - such as the Palestinian issue - that created support for the militants. Dr Mahathir cited Malaysia's own experience of dealing with the communist insurgencies in the 1950s as an example of how to deal with terrorism. At that time, the colonial British administration and then the independent Malaysian government combined tough military measures to combat the insurgents with a concerted campaign to win over the hearts and minds of the disaffected minority Chinese population. "The way to fight terrorism is to remove the causes of terrorism," he said. In the case of Iraq, the western powers were punishing innocent people of the country for the sins of their unelected leaders, he said. "Even if you manage to remove Saddam Hussein and put in someone else, there is no guarantee that the new leader will get the support of the people." In the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks, Dr Mahathir expressed strong support for the US, winning Washington's gratitude as it focused on the Islamist threat in south-east Asia. Previously, Dr Mahathir had experienced testy relations with President Bill Clinton's administration, which had condemned the Malaysian prime minister for jailing his disgraced deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, after his conviction for sodomy. But the outspoken 76-year-old Dr Mahathir, who has announced that he will retire next year, is a veteran of many political battles, both overseas and at home. Domestically, he has played an adroit game since the September 11 attacks, branding the chief opposition party, PAS, as Islamist extremists and winning back the support of the disillusioned electorate. Yesterday, Dr Mahathir even raised the prospect that he might ban PAS - just as western governments prevented extreme communist and fascist groups from contesting elections - if it overstepped the line and resorted to force. In that case, "we will have to do what western governments do", he said, for once expressing agreement with "western values". =20 From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 07:30:56 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:30:56 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTId-0001Az-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:30:55 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTIV-0002iF-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:30:47 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTGs-0002i0-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:29:06 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NDRY724442 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:27:34 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NDRWN24315 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:27:32 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK news media: Pilger replies to Carlton TV Thread-Index: AcJjBQOE63A9Sc7XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" , "Marxism (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK news media: Pilger replies to Carlton TV Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:30:28 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:30:28 +0300 Why my film is under fire The pro-Israel lobby intimidates journalists to ensure that most coverage remains biased in its favour John Pilger Monday September 23, 2002 The Guardian An unforeseen threat to freedom of speech in British broadcasting emerged last week. It was triggered by the showing of my documentary, Palestine is Still the Issue, on ITV. The film told a basic truth that is routinely relegated, even suppressed - that a historic injustice has been done to the Palestinian people, and until Israel's illegal and brutal occupation ends, there will be no peace for anyone, Israelis included. Most of the film allowed people to tell their eyewitness stories, both Palestinians and Israelis. What was unusual was that it disclosed in detail the daily humiliation and cultural denigration of the Palestinians, including a sequence showing excrement smeared by Israeli soldiers in a room of children's paintings. The film was accurate, restrained and fair; the longest interview was with an Israeli government spokesman. Every word and frame was subjected to a legal examination for accuracy and to ensure it complied with the fairness regulations in the Broadcasting Act. Our historical adviser, Professor Ilan Papp=E9, the distinguished Israeli historian. He wrote to Carlton Television that "the film is faultless in its historical description and poignant in its message". None of this deterred the chairman of Carlton, Michael Green, a supporter of Israel's policies, from abusing the programme makers in the Jewish Chronicle, calling the film "inaccurate", "historically incorrect" and "a tragedy for Israel". Not one of his accusations was, or can be, substantiated. Professor Papp=E9 called the attack "an attempt to delegitimise any criticism of Israel". This was followed by an unprecedented rebuke of its chairman by Carlton's Factual Department, which stood by the film's accuracy. What is disquieting is that Green had actually seen the film before it went to air, and had not alerted the programme makers to his concerns, waiting until the Jewish Board of Deputies, the Conservative Friends of Israel and the Israeli embassy expressed their "outrage" at a film transmitted after most people were in bed. A "pro-Israel" film is now being demanded by them and Green. What does this mean? My film was pro-Palestinian in as much as it was pro-justice. Most of those interviewed were patriotic Israelis, including the war veteran father of a teenage girl killed in a suicide bombing. He and others put the lie to the standard Zionist cry that any criticism of Israel is anti-semitic, a claim that insults all those Jewish people who reject the likes of Ariel Sharon acting in their name. So what does "balance" mean? A film approved by the Israel lobby? This lobby is currently orchestrating an email campaign against my film; curiously, many of the emails are coming from America, where it has not been shown. At the heart of this is a failure to acknowledge the overwhelming imbalance in the British media in favour of the Israeli point of view. ITV deserves great credit for funding and broadcasting my film, which sought to redress a little of this. The BBC would have never dared to incur the wrath of one of the most influential lobbies in this country, as Tim Llewellyn, the BBC's Middle East correspondent for many years, says in a letter in today's Guardian. He accuses the BBC of "continuing to duck" its public service duty to explain "the true nature of the disaster [of the occupation] and Israel's overwhelming responsibility for it". This general bias is verified by a remarkable study of the television coverage of the Middle East, conducted last May by the Glasgow University Media Group. The conclusions ought to shame broadcasters. The research shows that the public's lack of understanding of the conflicts and its origins is actually compounded by the "coverage". Viewers are rarely told that the Palestinians are victims of an illegal military occupation. The term "occupied territories" is rarely explained. Only 9% of young people interviewed know that the Israelis are both the occupiers and the illegal "settlers". The selective use of language is striking, says the study. Words such as "murder", "atrocity" and "terrorism" are used almost exclusively in relation to Israeli deaths. The extent to which broadcasters assume the Israeli perspective, says Professor Greg Philo, "can be seen if the statements are reversed ... We did not find any [news] reports stating that 'The Palestinian attacks were in retaliation for the murder of those resisting the illegal Israeli occupation.'" For years, journalists have complained about Zionist hate mail and the pressure of the "regular call from the Israeli embassy" to current affairs editors. This can take a subtle form: pressure is applied to correspondents in Jerusalem, who then shape their reports accordingly in the interests of what they tell themselves is "balance", but is, in effect, censorship by omission. The system gets the Israelis off their backs and "makes life bearable". If Michael Green and his vociferous friends succeed in intimidating ITV and the Independent Television Commission, the freedom of broadcasters to be more than mere channellers of "official truth" and to offer viewers suppressed facts and a true diversity of perspective, will be destroyed. No matter how big and powerful the corporate media, journalists and broadcasters have a duty to resist on behalf of the public we are meant to serve. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 07:31:56 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:31:56 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTJc-0001BQ-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:31:56 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTJO-0002ih-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:31:42 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTHU-0002i6-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:29:44 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NDSDd25054 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:28:13 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NDSCN24990 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:28:12 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Majordomo file: list 'guardian-weekly' file 'gw-us-news/2002.9.22/200209192802' Thread-Index: AcJjBUdWiNn918wzTiakUId2vtAmtAAAD58w From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:31:09 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:31:09 +0300 Firms set for post-Saddam oil bonanza Dan Morgan and David B. Ottaway A U.S.-led ouster of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein could open a bonanza for American oil companies long banished from Iraq, scuttling oil deals between Baghdad and Russia, France and other countries and reshuffling world petroleum markets, according to industry officials and leaders of the Iraqi opposition. Although senior Bush administration officials say they have not begun to focus on issues involving oil and Iraq, U.S. and foreign oil companies have already begun maneuvering for a stake in Iraq's huge reserves of 112 billion barrels of crude oil, the largest in the world outside Saudi Arabia. The importance of the oil has made it potentially one of the administration's biggest bargaining chips in negotiations to win backing from the U.N. Security Council and Western allies for President Bush's call for tough international action against Hussein. All five permanent members of the Security Council - the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China - have international oil companies with major stakes in a change of leadership in Baghdad. "It's pretty straightforward," said former CIA director R. James Woolsey, who has been one of the leading advocates of forcing Hussein from power. "France and Russia have oil companies and interests in Iraq. They should be told that, if they are of assistance in moving Iraq toward decent government, we'll do the best we can to ensure that the new government and American companies work closely with them." But he added: "If they throw in their lot with Saddam, it will be difficult to the point of impossible to persuade the new Iraqi government to work with them." The mere prospect of a new Iraqi government has fanned concerns by many non-American oil companies that they will be excluded by the United States, which would be the dominant foreign power in Iraq after Hussein's fall. Representatives of many foreign oil concerns have been meeting with leaders of the Iraqi opposition to make their case for a future stake and to sound them out about their intentions. The Guardian Weekly 19-9-2002, page 28 From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 07:36:28 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:36:28 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTO0-0001CS-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:36:28 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTNs-0002sF-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:36:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTMu-0002s4-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:35:20 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NDXnG28166 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:33:49 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NDXlN28104 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:33:47 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Britain/US split: Iraq Thread-Index: AcJjBeOK63A9VM7XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Britain/US split: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:36:44 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:36:44 +0300 Peter Kilfoyle was once a leading insider of the Labour Party leadership, first under Kinnock and then Blair. Under Kinnock he was given responsibility of ridding Merseyside Labour of Militant, which he did with ruthless efficiency. After the John Smith interregnum he found favour again under Blair's patronage, but soon found his earthy conceptions of social democracy up against the Third Way-glossed neoliberalism of Blair & Brown too much to handle, and resigned from his berth (never a place for a progressive) at the Ministry of Defence. Since then he has been making objectively sound warnings about New Labour forgetting its heartland vote (a point taken up disgracefully by Andrew Rawnsley in his vile "Servants of the People", where Kilfoyle is belittled as a "self-appointed" spokesman) and now concerning the strategic dilemma underpinning British policymaking. Defending ourselves Peter Kilfoyle Only a united Europe can counterbalance an increasingly paranoid and hawkish America Monday September 23, 2002 The Guardian In ancient Rome, the statesman Cato the Elder was renowned for declaiming, at the end of every speech, that "Carthage must be destroyed", referring to Rome's long-standing enemy. It is perhaps appropriate, therefore, that one of the rightwing thinktanks in the US should be called the Cato Institute - except that the ultra-right of American politics sees enemies everywhere. The thinking of these ideologues is alien to most of us. So extreme is one of their number, Paul Wolfowitz, that it is said that the description "hawk" does not do him justice ("What about velociraptor?" one of his former colleagues once remarked). Yet this world is cosily comfortable for its inhabitants. They speak to each other and for each other, and their websites are seamlessly linked. If, for example, one accesses the website of the National Institute for Public Policy - largely responsible for the current posture whereby the US is ready to attack non-nuclear nations with nuclear weapons - better known organisations like the Heritage Foundation appear, together with an eclectic collection of bodies, from the Korean Central News Agency, the Government of Pakistan and the US Department of Defence's Missile Defence Agency (for which the institute works). Possibly the strangest pair of these factories of paranoia are the Centre for Security Policy, and the Project for the New American Century. The former is run by the ultra-hawk Frank J Gaffney. He calls UN inspections in Iraq "harebrained" and is very well-connected in Washington. Back in 1997 Gaffney was cosignatory of the principles of PNAC, along with Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz and Lewis Libby (all senior officials to President Bush), together with Jeb Bush, brother of the president and famed for his dimpled chads. It was this organisation that wrote to President Bush last Friday saying: "Should Iran and Syria refuse to comply with [our demands], the administration should consider appropriate measures of retaliation against these known state sponsors of terrorism." War without end. What does the PNAC stand for? Four things: increased defence spending; challenging regimes "hostile to our interests and values"; the promotion of "political and economic freedom"; and America's need to keep the world "friendly to our security, our prosperity and our principles". In short, they wish to impose an imperialist Pax Americana on the world. The links and ideas among the far right are well-embedded in the current administration. Those links are both personal and ideological, and heavily influence American government policy. They are closely tied in, too, with the defence industry, oil interests, hawkish Israel supporters and the fundamentalist Christian right. Its current manifestation is the bellicose demand for a military solution to the problem of Saddam Hussein. Many around the world breathed a sigh of relief when President Bush went to the UN recently, unaware that the approach was merely a tactic. This administration and its leading lights have been consistently hostile to the UN; and they quickly made clear after Bush's address that, UN mandate or not, they will take out Saddam. This can hardly have comforted the British government, which switched under the pressure of public opinion to the inspections option, only to find it blocked by American determination to effect regime change. The ramifications of this hardline American policy on the US relationship with the world are huge. First, no one can doubt in the short term America's ability to enforce its will on much of the globe. Indeed, its defence document Joint Vision 2020 explicitly states: "The label 'full spectrum dominance' implies that US forces are able to conduct prompt, sustained and synchronised operations with combinations of forces tailored to specific situations, and with access to and freedom to operate in all domains - space, sea, land, air and information." It clearly intends total military domination - including missile defence - to effect such a strategy. The present administration also has the will to pursue such a course. It is both unilateral and isolationist, and will act in America's immediate national interest, regardless of international opinion and convention. Thus, the administration has unilaterally rejected Kyoto, the international criminal court, the ABM treaty, the Biological Weapons Convention, World Trade Organisation provisions and many more - all in favour of narrow American interests. It openly despises any restraint on its autonomy. For international organisations, this "might is right" approach is disastrous. What value is the UN when the world's only superpower treats it with open contempt? What of the EU, derided as "wimps"? What of the WTO, portrayed as a one-way street to American advantage? What of Nato, wherein national armies are seen as subordinate to American control and whim? Here in the UK, we are in a substantially worse predicament. Successive governments have deluded themselves that we have a "special relationship" with the US - special only in so far as we tend to fall in with every crazed administration notion, and ask for nothing in return. We end up as America's handrag, with diminished credibility within Europe and facing increased hostility across the globe. Is this in the British national interest? I fear not. A unipolar world is a dangerous place. It is like standing on one leg - one is far more liable to lose balance than when one is standing on two, or even four legs. Increasingly, it is clear that there needs to be an effective counterbalance to this over-powering American hegemony, best illustrated by the tragedy of Palestine. Here, the EU invested large amounts in the civilian infrastructure of the embryonic Palestinian Authority. Along came the Israeli government, using massive American military aid, and with tacit American approval, to destroy that peace-building capacity. Where is the sense, or the justice, in that? Is British and European opinion of no account? The time has surely come for the UK government, along with its European partners, to have the courage, within the restraints of realpolitik, to reassess its foreign policy priorities in line with our national interests and these new realities. Do those interests lie with those with whom we do our trade? Do we have more to gain in a strengthened relationship with Europe? Are we to be Europe's heartland or America's frontline? As we approach a heightening of the debate on the euro, it would be appropriate to widen that debate to include a full consideration of our community of interest with our European partners in a world overshadowed by the rampant hawks in Washington. As recent events have shown, a truly independent common defence and security policy for the EU is long overdue. =B7 Peter Kilfoyle is MP for Liverpool Walton and a former defence minister (1999-2000) From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 07:42:32 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:42:32 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTTq-0001Ft-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:42:30 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTTf-0002yJ-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:42:19 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tTSY-0002yA-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 07:41:11 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8NDddG32572 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:39:39 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8NDdcN32510 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:39:38 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable content-class: urn:content-classes:message X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Panitch, Poulantzas on US imperialism Thread-Index: AcJjBrSL63A9W87XEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Panitch, Poulantzas on US imperialism Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:42:35 +0300 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:42:35 +0300 LEO PANITCH THE NEW IMPERIAL STATE New Left Review, Series 2, Issue 2 March-April 2000 To free markets from states: thus has neo-liberal ideology trumpeted the cause of the untrammelled financial speculation, export competition and capital accumulation that goes by the name of 'globalization'. Even more critical analysts have repeated the theme. 'The most convenient world for multinational corporations', Eric Hobsbawm wrote in Age of Extremes, 'is one populated by dwarf states or by no states at all.' [1] Yet states, and above all the world's most powerful state, have played an active and often crucial role in making globalization happen. Increasingly, they are now encumbered with the responsibility of sustaining it. This was made dramatically clear in the wake of the East Asian financial crisis of 1998. As Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers returned from Seoul, where they had been dictating policy to the new Korean government, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve interrupted their Christmas holidays to rope together the Japanese Finance Ministry, the Bundesbank and the Bank of England in coordinating private bank lending to Korea. 'We were all told, "Thou shalt not cut",' one managing director for global markets at an American bank in Hong Kong later admitted. [2] The Wall Street Journal also quoted a UK banker who put this 'rescue operation' in broader perspective: 'The sad fact is that international banks never accomplish much unless they are pushed by the US Treasury.' On 8 January 1998, shortly after Rubin's return from Seoul, the economist Rudi Dornbusch was quipping on CNBC that the 'positive side' of the financial crisis was that South Korea was 'now owned and operated by our Treasury'. This elicited a knowing chuckle from the other pundits: after all, it used to be the State Department or the Pentagon that ran the Korean franchise-not the Treasury. As the contagion spread through 1998, neo-liberalism's usual misrepresentations of powerless states overwhelmed by unstoppable market forces grew increasingly untenable. The world was treated to the fascinating sight of the New York Stock Exchange going up on the news that the Japanese Government had nationalized one of the world's biggest banks (the Long-Term Credit Bank), and then to the spectacle of New York Federal Reserve officials summoning the CEOs of Wall Street's leading firms and telling them they would not be allowed to leave the room until they had agreed to take over the insolvent hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management (something of a misnomer for a financial institution engaged in short term arbitrage). This was hardly a case of globalization freeing markets from states. But then, there is nothing like a crisis to clarify things. Nine months later, amidst the aftershocks of the Russian default, with the Brazilian economy swaying on the brink, the principals on the world's capital markets seemed more dependent on, and certainly more attuned to, the latest word from the monetary authorities in Washington than Soviet managers could ever have been to Gosplan. As Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve fine-tuned the lowering of interest rates, opening the way for the newly-formed European Central Bank to do the same, it grew perfectly clear just how inconvenient it would be for capitalists if the world really was populated by 'dwarf states or no states at all'. None of this was new; nor was it confined to dramatic, lender-of-last-resort interventions of the kind presaged in the 1980s Third World debt crisis, the Savings and Loan bailout, the 1987 stock market crash and the 1994 Mexican crisis. The deregulation policies that set globalization on its way not only involved a host of new rules allowing free markets to operate; they also increased the scope for political leadership and discretionary intervention by central banks and finance ministries-a necessary step, given the (constantly) chaotic and (intermittently) crisis-prone nature of free markets. A new systemic relation between the state and capital had indeed emerged; but it was not one that diminished the role of states-and least of all the American state. Neo-liberalism as ideology occluded our view of this; but it must also be said that most of the critics of neo-liberalism, adopting the same impoverished state-market categories but inverting the values attached to them, did nothing to help. Lamenting the 'eclipse' of the state by the market, they have restricted their contributions to extolling the success of 'strong states' in East Asia or Northern Europe in contrast to the 'statelessness' of the Anglo-American model, somehow hoping that by pointing to Japan or Germany they could prove neo-liberalism wrong. The problem with this response was not just that most of the 'state-led' models were dubious as progressive alternatives to globalization; nor that most writers in this vein were remarkably blind to the tensions and contradictions that were undermining these models, and making them increasingly vulnerable to global pressures. The greater problem was the very notion that these were 'strong' states, in comparison to a 'weak' American one. The desire to counter neo-liberalism by strengthening states vis-=E0-vis markets is in some ways understandable; it reflects the hope that votes rather than dollars might determine the choices that govern our lives. But what has resulted is a remarkable idealization of the state as the repository of community values and societal needs. 'Embeddedness' has become the new cant word: as long as markets are 'embedded in society', they can be prudent and efficient and just. Vague as their models may sometimes have been, the 'market socialists' of the 1980s at least had some idea of 'embedding' markets in egalitarian social relations. Today the notion has more to do with measures of capitalist state regulation and expenditure. This unproblematic identification of the state with the interests of 'society' is the hallmark of a newly flourishing variant of Left-Hegelian idealism. Contradictory class interests are swept away by the invocation of an active state, which can simultaneously serve capital (making the penetration of markets more effective), upgrade education and welfare as social infrastructures of 'progressive competitiveness', and forge a 'synergistic' alliance with 'civil society'. [3] Again, nothing new. The notion of the 'activist state' now fulfils what Ernst Bloch once identified as one of the key functions of ideology-'the premature harmonization of social contradictions' within existing social relations. More than it likes to admit, this critique of neo-liberalism has much in common with the cynical idealism of the Third Way and the World Bank's current project of building a 'post-Washington Consensus'-globalization with a social-democratic face. The static duality of the categories of state and market, which so many would-be opponents of neo-liberalism accept without reservation, is a barrier to understanding the political economy of neo-liberalism. In retrospect it is now clearer than ever that the abandonment of attempts to develop Marxist theories of the capitalist state in favour of notions of state autonomy was a disastrous diversion. As one international finance expert put it at the recent American Political Science Association conference in Atlanta: 'In 1980, even Marxists thought an instrumental account of the capitalist state was not sophisticated enough, and by 1990 no one took any sort of Marxist theory of the capitalist state seriously at all. But what are we to say today when Goldman-Sachs controls the American Treasury?' However refreshing from such a source, this reversion to vulgar notions of 'the executive committee of the bourgeoisie', even if much closer to reality than new Hegelian notions of the state as a repository of community values, will not do. Globalization has rendered the role and nature of the state more complex-if still transparently capitalist. Where, then, should we begin? The legacy of Poulantzas Nicos Poulantzas's work on 'internationalization and the nation state', written in the early 1970s, still stands as the most fruitful point of departure. [4] Against 'the ideology of "globalization"' Poulantzas insisted that it was wrong to think of globalization as an abstract economic process in which social formations and states are seen 'merely as a concretization and spatialization of the "moments" of this process'. Such formulations, which inevitably took the state to have 'lost its powers' to multinational capital, were 'fundamentally incorrect'. Poulantzas's outstanding contribution was to explain: (i) that when multinational capital penetrates a host social formation, it arrives not merely as abstract 'direct foreign investment', but as a transformative social force within the country; (ii) that the interaction of foreign capital with domestic capital leads to the dissolution of the national bourgeoisie as a coherent concentration of class interests; (iii) but far from losing importance, the host state actually becomes responsible for taking charge of the complex relations of international capital to the domestic bourgeoisie, in the context of class struggles and political and ideological forms which remain distinctively national even as they express themselves within a world conjuncture. These elements still provide the conceptual building blocks we need to develop a theory of globalization. But I have abstracted them, as Poulantzas did not, from the actual states and specific conflicts and conjunctures that compose the world in the era of globalization. In developing his critique of the ideology of globalization, Poulantzas was above all concerned to trace the contours of a new epoch of American global dominance, entailing a new type of non-territorial imperialism, implanted and maintained not through direct rule by the metropolis, nor even through political subordination of a neo-colonial type, but rather through the 'induced reproduction of the form of the dominant imperialist power within each national formation and its state.' Transcending the restrictive confines of earlier Marxist theories of imperialism, [5] Poulantzas understood that, in and through the crisis of the Bretton Woods system and American defeat in Vietnam, a new era of imperialism was being born. [6] What Poulantzas could see was that the 1970s shock to US domination was only relative to the exceptional form that American hegemony had been able to assume in the context of post-war recovery. In sharp contrast to those who perceived a decline in US power and the rise of dynamic new capitalisms in Germany and Japan as the matrix of what would become globalization, [7] Poulantzas brilliantly discerned that: relations between the imperialist metropolises themselves are now being organized in terms of a structure of domination and dependence within the imperialist chain. The United States hegemony is not analogous to that of one metropolis over the others in the previous phases, and it does not differ from this in a merely 'quantitative' way. Rather it has been achieved by establishing relations of production characteristic of American monopoly capitalism and its domination inside the other metropolises . . . it similarly implies the extended reproduction within them of the ideological and political conditions for this development of American imperialism. [8] 'Relations of production' should be interpreted in the fullest sense here, as Poulantzas surely intended them to be. With that proviso, this striking vision of the relationship between American imperial dominance and globalization-however shaky it may have looked at various points to those who narrowly limited their focus to the relative competitiveness of the domestic American economy-stands confirmed at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Poulantzas's concern to demonstrate that globalization did not mean 'the virtual disappearance of national state power' led him to focus on the modalities of the induced reproduction of hegemony within the European states; this meant, as Susanne de Brunhoff pointed out at the time, that 'what was happening in the United States' was largely left out. [9] Poulantzas considered American capital primarily in terms of its effects on European states and social formations, and did not examine in any detail the forces within the American economy that were impelling foreign direct investment in Europe, or the contradictions this represented for US capitalism. Even more crucially, he failed to consider the articulations of US imperialism in the apparatuses of the American state itself, and the international institutions it commanded. After Bretton Woods Poulantzas was writing at what we can now see as the turning-point between the epoch of Bretton Woods and that of globalization-a time when increased inter-capitalist competition, rampant inflation, falling rates of profit and spreading speculation against the dollar were conjoined with a worldwide upsurge against American imperialism, while the core capitalist countries themselves were shaken not only by waves of industrial militancy, but by the eruption of youth and black protests on the streets, as the war in Indochina became a US disaster. [10] Alongside the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, radical anti-capitalist schemes for democratizing the economy-including controls on multinational corporations and foreign investment, planning agreements with leading firms and unions, nationalization of banks and extension of exchange and capital controls-appeared on the agenda of even social-democratic parties, while the United Nations enacted a Charter of Economic Rights and Duties of States giving member nations the right to 'regulate and exercise authority over foreign investment' and to 'regulate and supervise the activities of multinational corporations'. The Charter explicitly permitted states to 'nationalize, expropriate or transfer ownership of foreign property'. But this was also a conjuncture in which the growing power of international finance, above all on Wall Street, was already straining against the prophylactic regulations of the New Deal and Bretton Woods regimes. It had been a naive illusion of the crafters of the post-war system that the goals of expanding international trade, restoring currency convertibility and fostering foreign direct investment could be realized without the eventual resurgence of financial capital. US banks followed American multinationals to Europe, and the overseas operations of their international branches soon constituted their most profitable fields of investment. The capital controls the US had imposed in the 1960s to cope with payments deficits were easily circumvented, with the collaboration of the US monetary authorities themselves. [11] As the Bretton Woods system crumbled, the growing power of financial capital would have to be accommodated in the construction of a new global regime. A group of officials who had come into the Nixon White House in the late 1960s, armed with Milton Friedman's theories and close ties to Wall Street, played a key role in its arrival. [12] They believed, as the Trilateral Commission put it at the time, that it was essential to prevent governments being 'overloaded' by popular demands. But this did not mean that states were to be cashiered. Rather they had to be transformed from welfare systems into regimes designed to facilitate and police the free flow of capital around the globe. Britain provided the first and crucial test of a confrontation between radical-democratic and finance-capital solutions to the crisis. In 1974 a combined strike by miners and engineering workers had brought about a virtual state of emergency, culminating in the fall of Edward Heath's Conservative government. The Labour Party was returned to office, with a Chancellor of the Exchequer who had boasted he would 'squeeze the rich until their pips squeaked'. Financial markets reacted to the new administration with a ferocious assault on sterling. Within two years, Healey was forced to petition the IMF for credits to stop the run on the currency. The British crisis The conditionality attached by the IMF to the British loan of 1976 was a momentous break with Bretton Woods protocol. [13] For it amounted to nothing less than the imposition of financial capital's long-standing preference for price stability and private investment as the pre-eminent goals of economic policy, upon a major Western state whose people had just voted for public expenditure and full employment. Key actors in this drama were William Simon, the American Secretary of the Treasury; his Undersecretary, Edwin Yeo; and Scott Pardee, Vice-President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In the last days of the IMF negotiations, Simon flew to London to meet secretly with Bank of England and UK Treasury officials and get their appraisal of where the Labour Cabinet stood. To maintain clandestinity, the meeting took place at an exclusive London tailor's and cost Simon the price of three suits-well worth it, he said. [14] Simon had made his first million as a bond trader before he was thirty; Undersecretary Yeo was a former Pittsburgh banker. The connexions between Wall Street and the City of London undoubtedly smoothed their path. But it was only in their capacity as American state officials that Simon and Yeo could play the role they did in defeating the radical economic alternative advanced by Tony Benn and others in the Labour Party. It was not easy. Edwin Yeo later described how the Treasury had 'sweated blood' to get its way, not least against Henry Kissinger and the State Department who favoured gentler handling of such a key Cold War ally. As William Rodgers, Simon's successor at the Treasury, later put it: 'We all had a feeling it could come apart in a quite serious way . . . it was a choice between Britain remaining in the liberal financial system of the West as opposed to a radical change of course. I think if that had happened the whole system would have begun to fall apart. So we tended to see it in cosmic terms.' [15] So, too, in the end, did the Labour Cabinet, who fell to dismantling Britain's capital controls and welfare state with such a will that for the first few years of her government Thatcher could claim she was only following Labour's policies. The Labour Government were not only managing the British crisis as they did this: they explicitly saw themselves as junior partners with the US in managing the international crisis, through policies to accelerate the free flow of capital-actively helping to establish, as Poulantzas had put it, 'relations of production characteristic of American monopoly capitalism' within their own metropolis. Once it had worked in Britain, this process gave the signal for the new era of imperial neo-liberalism that came to be known as the 'Washington Consensus'. Reorganizing hegemony The 'regime' theories dominant in the field of international relations are manifestly unhelpful in understanding this development, misrepresenting as cooperative understandings what were in reality structural manifestations of a hierarchically organized international political economy. [16] The same can be said of theories of state autonomy, which make light of all the manifest historical evidence of the growing political dominance of business ideas and pressures within both national states and the world economy over the last twenty five years. It is here that we can appreciate Poulantzas's accomplishment. His framework allowed him to discern, as few others were able to do, the American capacity to manage the radical restructuring of global capitalism in forms that reproduced their imperial dominance. He perceived clearly what the series of successive European 'withdrawals' on capital controls, monetary policy and the oil crisis in the early 1970s meant: There is no solution to this crisis, as the European bourgeoisies themselves are perfectly aware, by these bourgeoisies attacking American capital. The question for them, faced with the rising struggles of the popular masses in Europe itself, is rather to reorganize a hegemony that they still accept, taking account of the reactivation and intensification of inter-imperialist contradictions. American capital has no need to re-establish its hegemony, for it has never lost it. [17] There is no space here to attempt even a summary historical overview of the reorganization of the terms of hegemony and the rules of the new capitalist order that has taken place since Poulantzas wrote these words. Peter Gowan's brilliant account of what he calls 'Washington's Faustian Bid for Global Dominance', covering the whole period from Nixon to Clinton, certainly confirms Poulantzas's view. [18] Yet in concentrating almost exclusively on American strategy, it is arguable that Gowan reverses Poulantzas's omission, since he leaves aside any detailed examination of the determination of policy changes within the European states themselves, tacitly playing down the extent to which these were negotiated rather than dictated. American strategies can be invested with too much coherence and political actors with too much clarity and foresight. This is not to say that Gowan presents the evolution of policy as an entirely smooth or linear process; his discussion of the resistance of US banks to recycling petrodollars in the 1970s shows that he does not. What is missing, however, is the kind of full scale analysis that Comor has undertaken of how contradictory domestic class interests intertwine with the divergent goals of Defence and Treasury in the arena of US foreign policy, and its projection through the international mediators of US hegemony like the IMF, World Bank, WTO and so on. [19] Both studies strongly confirm, however, that the process of globalization, far from dwarfing states, has been constituted through and even by them. The removal of controls on cross-border financial flows, the 'Big Bang' which broke down internal barriers within financial markets, massive privatization of public assets and deregulation in other spheres-all this was accomplished through state action, requiring a legalization and juridification of new relations among economic agents in both domestic and international arenas. This is what Stephen Vogel appropriately calls Freer Markets, More Rules in a detailed comparative study of regulatory reform in telecommunication and finance in Britain and Japan-confirming Michael Moran's argument in his neglected but pathbreaking work on The Politics of the Financial Services Revolution. [20] Likewise, the liberalization of financial markets has not involved any abdication by states of their supervision of banks. On the contrary, as Ethan Kapstein remarks, states have promoted 'an array of cooperative arrangements . . . including, since 1974, the founding of a bank supervisors' committee by the Group of Ten countries; the convening of annual meetings and "summer schools" of bank regulators; and the articulation of internationally accepted principles and rules of banking supervision.' The effect of this cooperation has been to promote policy convergence, but the actual supervision 'rests on the bedrock of home country control . . . states look to one another, as opposed to some supranational or multilateral entity, to legislate and enforce any agreements that have been collectively reached . . . As a result, the linkages between states and their national banks have not been broken, and in some respects they have even been strengthened.' [21] This conclusion may no longer obtain within the European Union. But it still holds for the international system as a whole. There the principle of state supervision has not merely been conserved, but possibly even strengthened in the wake of the East Asian crisis, as a glance at US Treasury reports-nominally issued by the G22-on the need for a 'new financial architecture' suggests. Precisely because the principle of national control still obtains, the central concern of the US state has increasingly been to secure what Saskia Sassen appropriately calls the Americanization not only of international but also domestic legal standards for regulating financial systems and reporting information. [22] Cross-border commercial arbitration and credit-rating services constitute informal regimes that are already substantially Americanized; while the point of the 'new financial architecture' is to make each nation's accounting and bankruptcy laws into facsimiles of the American. There is, again, nothing new in this. It has been the dynamic of all the international treaty-making endeavours of the last twenty years, whose main thrust has been to ensure that foreign capital enjoys as favourable a set of arrangements as domestic capital within each state. A continual series of bilateral negotiations-1,513 bilateral trade agreements were reached in 1997, one every 2.5 days-are directed to the same end. In the year when the Multilateral Accord on Investment was finally halted, there were no fewer than 151 changes in the regulations governing foreign direct investment in 76 countries and 89% of them were favourable to foreign capital. [23] These, then, are the legal indicators of the 'induced reproduction' of imperialism in our time. The new imperialism It is therefore all the more surprising that there have been so few attempts explicitly to theorize the new imperialism since Poulantzas wrote about it in the mid-1970s. Susan Strange, who did try to do so, attributed this absence to the myth of dwindling US hegemony in the aftermath of Vietnam, Watergate and the Iranian Revolution: The decline of US hegemony is a myth-powerful, no doubt, but still a myth. In every important respect the United States still has the predominant power to shape frameworks and thus to influence outcomes. This implies that it can draw the limits within which others choose from a restricted list of options, the restrictions being in large part a result of US decisions . . . The academics of the 1980s have been living in the past and figuring out theories of hegemonic stability to account for the public mood of the late 1970s. This is not, however, the first time that social scientists have behaved like generals who, overtaken by events, make elaborate preparations to fight the last war. [24] Another reason for the myth, especially strong on the left, was the relatively poor competitive performance of the US economy in the 1980s. Strange's response was to point out that the structural power of the US could not be measured by American exports or GNP alone: TNCs based in the United States, plus TNCs based elsewhere but having a large part of their profit making operations in the United States, play a dominant role. Any TNC, whatever its nationality, that hopes to keep a substantial share of the world market now finds it indispensable to operate in the territorial United States. The political authority, therefore, that most TNC executives are likely to heed the most and be most anxious to avoid offending is that based in Washington. When to this 'structural power' in the domain of production was added the global predominance of the US in the realms of finance, war, information and culture Strange could not avoid the conclusion that: What is emerging therefore is a non-territorial empire with its imperial capital in Washington, D.C. Where imperial capitals used to draw courtiers from outlying provinces, Washington draws lobbyists from outlying enterprises, outlying minority groups, and globally organized pressure groups . . . As in Rome, citizenship is not limited to a master race and the empire contains a mix of citizens with full legal and political rights, semicitizens and noncitizens like Rome's slave population. Many of the semicitizens walk the street of Rio or of Bonn, of London or Madrid, shoulder to shoulder with the noncitizens; no one can necessarily tell them apart by color or race or even dress. The semicitizens of the empire are many and widespread. They live for the most part in the great cities of the noncommunist world. They include many people employed by the large transnational corporations operating in the transnational production structure and serving, as they are all very well aware, a global market. They include the people employed in transnational banks. They often include members of the 'national' armed forces, those that are trained, armed by, and dependent on the armed forces of the United States. They include many academics in medicine, natural sciences, and social studies like management and economics who look to U.S. professional associations and to U.S. universities as the peer group in whose eyes they wish to shine and to excel. They include people in the press and media for whom U.S. technology and U.S. examples have shown the way, changing established organizations and institutions. [25] Strange's approach differed fundamentally from that of Poulantzas, above all in its attribution of autonomous power to the state, and its conviction that this power was centralized rather than diffused. She also claimed-although it is difficult not to feel she was dissembling-that her goal was to improve, maintain and prolong American hegemony rather than destroy it. But we should nevertheless be grateful for her contribution to naming the beast. On the Right The word imperialism is out of fashion, as Peter Gowan has noted. [26] So much so on the Left, that we now have to look to the Right for clear-sighted guidance. Zbigniew Brzezinski's recent book The Grand Chessboard makes no secret of 'the unique position [of] the first and only truly global superpower' whose 'vassals and tributaries' include the states of Western Europe. 'For the first time ever', he writes, 'a non-Eurasian power has emerged not only as the key arbiter of Eurasian power relations but also as the world's paramount power.' Rather more convincing than Strange in his desire to improve, maintain and prolong the empire, Madeleine Albright's tutor proposes that 'the three great imperatives of geopolitical strategy are to prevent collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries pliant, and to keep the barbarians from coming together.' [27] Harold Innis once said (and if we Canadians don't know, who does?) that American imperialism has been made plausible by the insistence that it is not imperialistic. That persists in the rhetoric of the American state today. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, head of the most powerful state agency in the world, calls the United States the 'first nonimperialist superpower'. Boosters outside the ranks of officialdom can afford to be franker. Summers's intimate Thomas Friedman, lead columnist for the New York Times, strikes a more forthright note. Emblazoned on the cover of the paper's Magazine for 26 March 1999 is a massive clenched fist painted with the American flag, to illustrate his title article: 'What The World Needs Now: For globalization to work, America can't be afraid to act like the almighty superpower that it is.' There are some partisans of the empire, however, lucid enough to see that this prospect is not always viewed in the same light. As Samuel Huntington puts it: In the past few years the United States has, among other things, attempted or been perceived as attempting more or less unilaterally to do the following: pressure other countries to adopt American values and practices regarding human rights and democracy; prevent other countries from acquiring military capabilities that could counter American conventional superiority; enforce American law extraterritorially in other societies; grade countries according to their adherence to American standards on human rights, drugs, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, missile proliferation, and now religious freedom; apply sanctions against countries that do not meet American standards on these issues; promote American corporate interests under the slogans of free trade and open markets; shape World Bank and International Monetary Fund policies to serve those same corporate interests; intervene in local conflicts in which it has relatively little direct interest; bludgeon other countries to adopt economic policies and social policies that will benefit American economic interests; promote American arms sales abroad while attempting to prevent comparable sales by other countries; force out one U.N. secretary-general and dictate the appointment of his successor; expand NATO initially to include Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic and no one else; undertake military action against Iraq and later maintain harsh economic sanctions against the regime; and categorize certain countries as 'rogue states,' excluding them from global institutions because they refuse to kowtow to American wishes. [28] Huntington believes all this comes from acting as though we live in a unipolar world, which it certainly will not be in the twenty-first century. He fears that unilateral behaviour by the United States, already widely seen as a 'rogue' rather than 'benevolent' superpower, could provoke not only Russia and China but even the states of Europe into an anti-American coalition. To avert this danger, America should show itself in a more benign light, acting less like a 'lonely sheriff', and above all tending its alliance with Europe: while the United States cannot create a unipolar world, it is in the US interests to take advantage of its position as the only superpower in the existing international order and to use its resources to elicit cooperation from other countries to deal with global issues in ways that satisfy American interests . . . Healthy cooperation with Europe is the prime antidote for the loneliness of American superpowerdom. Samuel Huntington meets Tony Blair. It looks as if we are moving into a new phase of globalization, as the dominant ideological discourse shifts from the forthright prescriptions of universal monetarism to the more 'caring' rhetoric of the Third Way. During the fall of 1998, the adhesion of the IMF-and behind it, of the US Treasury-to neo-liberal principles was the object of widespread criticism and derision from hard-boiled champions of orthodoxy like Paul Krugman and Jeffrey Sachs, and even financial speculators like George Soros. Establishment journalists suddenly started listening to political scientists working for the World Bank, trained as experts in particular regions and more aware of dangers on the ground than IMF economists, dedicated only to regression equations and abstract neo-classical theory, who would apply the same structural adjustment formulae to every crisis. The IMF's neo-liberal prescriptions, it could now be heard from the most improbable quarters, not only cause great misery, they don't even work. The case for capital controls, a few years ago voiced only by few 'other-worldly' Marxists, [29] received some suprising endorsements. The language of the 'new financial architecture' and the creation of the G22 reflect the tactical manoeuvres of Clintonite diplomacy and functionaries at the World Bank. They bespeak little substantive change in policy. Capital controls are off the agenda-much too powerful is 'the systematic opposition of key constituents at home as well as the US Treasury and its allies abroad.' [30] These are the forces that have the upper hand. They know perfectly well that controls would have to go further than recent converts are prepared to admit if they were to be at all effective in taming the chaos that is international finance today-and if they go that far, who could say they would not be used for socialist rather than capitalist purposes? There are still a few people who, taking European social democracy more seriously than they should, have predicted 'a coming battle over capital controls' between Europe and the United States. [31] They could not be more mistaken. Poulantzas's insight into the penetration of the European states by US imperialism still holds. The measure of it is the eager collaboration of every EU state with the latest assertion of American strategic hegemony over Europe-NATO's war on Yugoslavia. Those who focus on minor regional trade and currency rivalries can't see the bombs for the bananas. [1] London 1996, p. 281. [2] Wall Street Journal, 4 November 1998. [3] See Peter Evans, 'The Eclipse of the State? Reflections on Stateness in an Era of Globalization', World Politics 50, October 1997; and Linda Weiss, The Myth of the Powerless State, Ithaca 1998. [4] Nicos Poulantzas, Classes in Contemporary Capitalism, London 1975. See also Konstantine Tsoukalas, 'Globalization and the Executive Committee', The Socialist Register 1998. [5] For these, see the classic analysis of Giovanni Arrighi, The Geometry of Imperialism, London 1983. [6] For other insightful studies of the new imperialism at the time, see Harry Magdoff, The Age of Imperialism, New York 1969, and James O'Connor, The Corporations and the State, New York 1974. [7] From Ernest Mandel in the late 1960s to Robert Brenner in the late 1990s: see Mandel, Europe versus America?, London 1971, and Brenner, 'The Economics of Global Turbulence', NLR 229, May-June 1998. [8] Classes in Contemporary Capitalism, p. 47. Italics added. [9] The State, Capital and Economic Policy, London 1978, pp. 113-122. [10] In his concern to show that the underlying cause of the long downturn cannot have been any significant impact of industrial militancy on labour costs, Robert Brenner takes too narrow and economistic a measure of class struggle and so misses this crucial turning point in his 'Economics of Global Turbulence'. [11] See J. Hawley, Dollars and Borders, London 1987. [12] See Eric Helleiner, States and the Reemergence of Global Finance, Ithaca 1994, pp. 111-120. [13] Although the US Treasury had gradually forced conditionality on IMF loans to Third World states through the fifties and sixties, this was the first time-at least since 1947-50, when the Marshall Plan was tied to policies of social and financial discipline-that conditionality was imposed on a leading American ally: see Andrew Glyn, 'The Rise and Fall of the Golden Age', in S. Marglin and J. Schor, eds, The Golden Age of Capitalism, Oxford 1990. [14] See M. Harmon, The British Labour Government and the 1976 IMF Crisis, London 1997, pp. 193-5. [15] Leo Panitch and Colin Leys, The End of Parliamentary Socialism, London 1997, p. 126. [16] Harmon, The British Labour Government and the 1976 IMF Crisis, p. 228. [17] Classes in Contemporary Capitalism, p. 87. [18] Peter Gowan, The Global Gamble, London 1999. [19] See Edward Comor, Communications, Commerce and Power, London 1998. [20] Published respectively in Ithaca 1996, and New York 1991. [21] Governing the Global Economy, Cambridge, Mass. 1994, p. 20. [22] Losing Control: Sovereignty in an Age of Globalization, New York 1996, p. 18. [23] See World Bank Report, Global Economic Prospects, Washington 1998. [24] 'Towards a Theory of Transnational Empire', in E-O. Czempiel and J. Rosenau, eds, Global Changes and Theoretical Challenges, Lexington 1989, p. 169. [25] Ibid., p. 167. [26] Employing the term in debate with John Lloyd over the imposition of 'shock therapy' on post-Communist Eastern Europe. See 'Eastern Europe, Western Power and Neo-Liberalism', NLR 216, March-April 1996. [27] The Grand Chessboard, New York 1997, p. 40. [28] Samuel Huntington, 'The Lonely Superpower', Foreign Affairs, 78:2, 1999, p. 48. [29] See the important essay by Jim Crotty and Gerald Epstein, 'In Defense of Capital Controls', The Socialist Register, 1996. [30] B. J. Cohen, 'Capital Controls: Why Do Governments Hesitate?', paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, September 1999. [31] Robert Wade, 'The Coming Fight over Capital Flows', Foreign Affairs, Winter 1998-9. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 08:49:35 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 08:49:35 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tUWj-0001r6-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 08:49:33 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tUWW-0003Qz-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 08:49:20 -0600 Received: from out019pub.verizon.net ([206.46.170.98] helo=out019.verizon.net) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tUVO-0003Qn-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 08:48:10 -0600 Received: from 2ct0p01 ([151.204.117.194]) by out019.verizon.net (InterMail vM.5.01.05.09 201-253-122-126-109-20020611) with SMTP id <20020923144739.GHPJ9549.out019.verizon.net@2ct0p01> for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 09:47:39 -0500 Message-ID: <007b01c26310$9f7ea960$6401a8c0@toy38the> From: "Mine Doyran" To: References: <5.1.0.14.2.20020923100345.00a3f6d0@pop.freeserve.net> Subject: Re: [A-List] Re: Henry Liu MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:50:56 -0400 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:50:56 -0400 what is "EPW"? --- Mine A. Doyran Ph.D Candidate, ABD Department of Political Science SUNY at Albany Nelson A. Rockefeller College 135 Western Ave.; Milne 102 Albany, NY 12222 EPW Perspectives September 14, 2002 Wall Street Capitalism and the World of Professional Managers From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 16:07:48 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:07:48 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tbMq-00046j-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:07:48 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tbMT-0006G0-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:07:25 -0600 Received: from smtp.maui.net ([209.84.182.149]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tbLV-0006Fn-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:06:25 -0600 Received: from 127.0.0.1 (smtpnew [127.0.0.1]) by dummy.domain.name (Postfix) with SMTP id 0465F1B8065 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:12:24 -1000 (HST) Received: from defaultMicheleDriscoll (ip64-75-157-27.dial.maui.net [64.75.157.27]) by smtp.maui.net (Postfix) with SMTP id E42BE1B8017 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:12:21 -1000 (HST) Message-ID: <00bf01c2634c$fe95f520$1b9d4b40@defaultMicheleDriscoll> From: "Ralph Johansen" To: References: <5.1.0.14.2.20020923100345.00a3f6d0@pop.freeserve.net> <007b01c26310$9f7ea960$6401a8c0@toy38the> Subject: Re: [A-List] Re: Henry Liu MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:03:03 -1000 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:03:03 -1000 Economic and Political Weekly, India ----- Original Message ----- From: "Mine Doyran" To: Sent: Monday, September 23, 2002 4:50 AM Subject: Re: [A-List] Re: Henry Liu > what is "EPW"? > > --- > Mine A. Doyran > Ph.D Candidate, ABD > Department of Political Science > SUNY at Albany > Nelson A. Rockefeller College > 135 Western Ave.; Milne 102 > Albany, NY 12222 > > > EPW Perspectives > September 14, 2002 > > Wall Street Capitalism and the World of Professional Managers > > > > > > From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 16:15:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:15:36 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tbUO-0004As-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:15:36 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tbU9-0006Jn-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:15:21 -0600 Received: from out011pub.verizon.net ([206.46.170.135] helo=out011.verizon.net) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tbTf-0006Je-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:14:51 -0600 Received: from 2ct0p01 ([151.204.117.194]) by out011.verizon.net (InterMail vM.5.01.05.09 201-253-122-126-109-20020611) with SMTP id <20020923221420.YVOG17563.out011.verizon.net@2ct0p01> for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 17:14:20 -0500 Message-ID: <004b01c2634f$057c65c0$6401a8c0@toy38the> From: "Mine Doyran" To: References: <5.1.0.14.2.20020923100345.00a3f6d0@pop.freeserve.net> <007b01c26310$9f7ea960$6401a8c0@toy38the> <00bf01c2634c$fe95f520$1b9d4b40@defaultMicheleDriscoll> Subject: Re: [A-List] Re: Henry Liu MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 18:17:36 -0400 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 18:17:36 -0400 thanks. --- Mine A. Doyran Ph.D Candidate, ABD Department of Political Science SUNY at Albany Nelson A. Rockefeller College 135 Western Ave.; Milne 102 Albany, NY 12222 ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ralph Johansen" To: Sent: Monday, September 23, 2002 6:03 PM Subject: Re: [A-List] Re: Henry Liu > Economic and Political Weekly, India > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Mine Doyran" > To: > Sent: Monday, September 23, 2002 4:50 AM > Subject: Re: [A-List] Re: Henry Liu > > > > what is "EPW"? > > > > --- > > Mine A. Doyran > > Ph.D Candidate, ABD > > Department of Political Science > > SUNY at Albany > > Nelson A. Rockefeller College > > 135 Western Ave.; Milne 102 > > Albany, NY 12222 > > > > > > EPW Perspectives > > September 14, 2002 > > > > Wall Street Capitalism and the World of Professional Managers > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 17:51:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 17:51:37 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tczJ-0004Y4-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 17:51:37 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tcz7-0006td-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 17:51:25 -0600 Received: from mta5.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.241]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tcyG-0006tQ-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 17:50:32 -0600 Received: from sabri ([66.124.235.137]) by mta5.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H2X0057P0W6TL@mta5.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:50:32 -0700 (PDT) From: Sabri Oncu To: PEN-L , ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: QUOTED-PRINTABLE Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] A privatized public good: Higher Education Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:53:06 -0700 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 16:53:06 -0700 I don't know how these the Economist people reach such lovely conclusions. The university system in Turkey is about to collapse, if not collapsed already. The quality of education at most state universities are getting worse and worse, and majority of those with university diplomas from non-elite universities are ending up unemployed. If they are lucky enough to land on jobs, they are required to perform mindless jobs that even most high school graduates of two decades ago refused to perform. This year, most private universities couldn't recruit enough students for their programs because most qualified students did not have the money. They had to open their doors to the least qualified but rich students so that they had some. Majority of state university professors make much less than $1000 US per month (like Patric in South Africa), with junior faculty less than $500, and have to work second jobs or do consulting, tutoring etc to survive. Labs and buildings at the state universities are falling apart and most state universities are looking to businesses for funding rather than to the state. My home university's engineering school started a "Financial Engineering" program at the masters level so that they can make some money for both the school and professors, and those engineering professors who don't know finance don't get to participate in the benefits. Why the heck these engineers need to teach finance in the first place? Sabri ++++++++++++++ The quiet educational revolution Sep 23rd 2002 =46rom The Economist Global Agenda More students than ever will be pouring into colleges, universities and a growing array of post-secondary schools around the world this month. The expansion of higher education over the past two decades has transformed societies everywhere. And the trend is accelerating. But as classrooms become ever more crowded, the most urgent question is: who will pay? THIS month marks, as it does every year, a reopening of universities and colleges around the world. But it will also be another step in a quiet revolution which is transforming societies around the world. Enrolments in higher education have surged in the past two decades, and the trend, if anything, is accelerating rather than slowing down. In many developed nations, more than half of all young people now enter post-secondary school. Elsewhere, rates of participation in higher education are lower, but they are rising fast in eastern Europe, China, Latin America and the Middle East. Yet the swift expansion of higher education has taken many countries by surprise, leading to overcrowded, under-funded public universities in a perpetual state of crisis. Desperate for new sources of revenue, governments are increasingly demanding that students and their parents provide more of the money needed to finance their education. Asking students and their families to chip in toward the cost of a degree hardly seems a radical notion. In the United States, a substantial proportion of university costs are met by parents and students themselves, even for those attending public universities, and tuition fees are rising. But in the old social-welfare states of Europe, in parts of Asia and throughout Africa and Latin America, university education is considered a public good and has been offered to students for "free"=97ie, courtesy of the taxpayers. This is a point of both principle and pride in many nations. In a joint statement last May, European education ministers declared that higher education is the responsibility of government. Such declarations are beginning to sound hollow. Private expenditure on post-secondary education is growing, as costs gradually shift from state to student. Ten of 16 wealthy countries reported an increase in private spending for tertiary education between 1995 and 1998; in Australia, Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Turkey, private contributions rose by more than 30%=97much faster than public expenditures for this level of schooling, which actually dropped in real terms in Canada, Italy, the Netherlands and Switzerland. Within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), comprised of the world=92s richest countries, the private share of total payments for post-secondary education ranges from 3% (Scandinavia) to 83% (South Korea). Though public funding is still the life-blood of most university systems, the increasing reliance on private money represents a significant change. Governments are no longer willing or able to offer university education for the masses unless beneficiaries contribute directly. This is a tacit acknowledgement that a college degree is not just a public good, but a private one as well, leading to better jobs and higher earnings. The gap in earning potential between a high school graduate and a college graduate in the United States exceeds $1m over a lifetime. Much of the increase in household spending among OECD countries can be attributed to the imposition of tuition fees and to the spread of for-profit institutions, encouraged in Poland, for example, to supplement public institutions. The charges have helped alleviate the financial pressures associated with the unexpected demand for higher education. Enrolments shot up, by more than 30% in Poland, Hungary, South Korea, the Czech Republic, Greece and Austria between 1995 and 1999, forcing expenditures per student to drop throughout Europe and in Australia. Britain typifies the dilemma faced by countries in the West. The new Labour government swallowed hard and introduced tuition fees in 1997, after participation rates had doubled in less than a decade under the previous government. At the same time, public funding had not kept pace with this growth, and so expenditure per student had dropped by 25%. British students, once highly subsidised, now pay just slightly less, on average, than students attending US public colleges. In Germany, the Social Democratic government has rescinded a guarantee of free higher education. University costs remain minimal, but the door has been opened for charging tuition. Germany has been spared for now because participation rates there have fallen slightly since 1995. Developing countries are in more dire fiscal straits; they too are charging students tuition fees to help maintain their public universities, a policy advocated by the World Bank. In many poor countries, government funding for colleges and universities has declined in relative=97and in some cases, absolute=97terms. Chile, China, India, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa and Vietnam now routinely collect tuition and other fees from students. Russian law forbids students from paying anything toward a university education, and yet this law is widely evaded by universities themselves, and more than a quarter of all students paid fees in 1999, up from 9% in 1995. Russia is not the only country that pays lip service to free university education while charging. Pakistan, Vietnam and China have all experimented by charging all but the top-performing students. But only the Chinese have discovered the paradox of the market in higher education: fees do not necessarily deter students, who tend to compete for university spaces based on price=97the steeper, the better. Since 1997, the Chinese have levied fees for all students. Enrolment has skyrocketed 200% between 1999 and 2001. The most coveted universities charge more and manage to generate as much as 40% of their income from fees. A Chinese student at a high-priced public institution spends about $8,000 a year on instruction and living expenses, according to the International Comparative Higher Education Finance and Accessibility Project at the State University of New York in Buffalo. Tuition fees can amount to political poison, however=97in poor and rich countries alike. The Nigerian government, fearing destabilising student protests, recently prevented its cash-strapped public universities from charging instructional fees. And in Scotland, the imposition of fees, along with the elimination of maintenance grants, resulted in a brief but noticeable decline in enrolments among low-income students. Scotland has abandoned fees for now. Cost-sharing is most equitable when used in combination with grant and loan schemes. These are problematic in developing countries, where the scarcity of private-capital markets restricts the volume of student lending to amounts that the government can raise. China, Russia and India have all designed loan programmes in the past two years; none is a success. Elsewhere, high default rates tend to hamper lending programmes. Opponents of cost-sharing rightly worry about access and affordability. But these concerns may be overstated. Curiously, many countries where students and families have to spend more have high participation rates while countries with less private spending tend to have low participation rates. This may be an anomaly. Or it may be that reasonable fees do not amount to the financial barrier that many suppose, especially if coupled with sufficient aid for the neediest. One thing seems certain: more and more countries will be testing the limits of cost-sharing as enrolments continue to climb. Aricle at: http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3D1323799 From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 18:08:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 18:08:33 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tdFh-0004cg-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 18:08:33 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tdFV-00071s-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 18:08:21 -0600 Received: from dns1.clark.edu ([192.102.5.4]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tdEI-00070l-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 18:07:06 -0600 Received: from vidar.clark.edu (vidar.clark.edu [168.156.144.17]) by dns1.clark.edu (8.9.3/8.9.3/Debian 8.9.3-21) with ESMTP id RAA30909 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 17:07:05 -0700 Received: by vidar.clark.edu with Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) id ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 17:07:05 -0700 Message-ID: From: "Craven, Jim" To: "'a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu'" Subject: RE: [A-List] A privatized public good: Higher Education MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Content-Type: text/plain Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 17:07:05 -0700 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 17:07:05 -0700 -----Original Message----- From: Sabri Oncu [mailto:soncu@pacbell.net] Sent: Monday, September 23, 2002 4:53 PM To: PEN-L; ALIST Subject: [A-List] A privatized public good: Higher Education I don't know how these the Economist people reach such lovely conclusions. The university system in Turkey is about to collapse, if not collapsed already. The quality of education at most state universities are getting worse and worse, and majority of those with university diplomas from non-elite universities are ending up unemployed. If they are lucky enough to land on jobs, they are required to perform mindless jobs that even most high school graduates of two decades ago refused to perform. This year, most private universities couldn't recruit enough students for their programs because most qualified students did not have the money. They had to open their doors to the least qualified but rich students so that they had some. Response: I suspect that much of the emphasis on increasing "privatization" of State-subsidized "education" has to do with shifting SSA (Social Structures of Accumulation and Expanded Reproduction) requirements of imperialism and monopoly capitalism: abolition of tenure and removal of "tenured radicals"; changes in curriculae to remove possibility of exposure to progressive radicals and progressive radical ideas; ideological cloning and reducing time/costs of adaptations of workers to new workplace imperatives, conditions and productivity/profitability requirements; breaking public employee and teacher unions and union strengths; expanded reproduction of class/strata systems and associated inequalities (read differential "incentives"); fiscal crises of monopoly capitalism crowding out public expenditures in education; changing demographics (rich producing fewer children and fewer children per family); shortages in military force recruitment/retention (students forced into military to acquire funding for college); grandiose and expensive capital projects by administrators (who love buildings and their names on them but have no clue what is going on or is supposed to be going on within those ornate buildings); etc etc. Jim Craven From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 23:27:34 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 23:27:34 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tiEQ-0005tq-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 23:27:34 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tiEF-0000PT-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 23:27:23 -0600 Received: from mta6.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.240]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tiDm-0000PK-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 23:26:54 -0600 Received: from sabri ([66.124.235.137]) by mta6.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H2X001I0GGSYE@mta6.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 22:26:54 -0700 (PDT) From: Sabri Oncu To: PEN-L , ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: QUOTED-PRINTABLE Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Fwd: Former U.S. Attorney General Ramsey Clark Calls to UN to Stop US! Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 22:29:27 -0700 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 22:29:27 -0700 This was sent to the PGA list by an old friend by the name of Bob Everton. Sabri +++++++++++++++ The following letter by former U.S. Attorney General Ramsey Clark has been sent to all members of the UN Security Council, with copies to the UN General Assembly. Please circulate. September 20, 2002 Secretary General Kofi Annan United Nations New York, NY Dear Secretary General Annan, George Bush will invade Iraq unless restrained by the United Nations. Other international organizations-- including the European Union, the African Union, the OAS, the Arab League, stalwart nations courageous enough to speak out against superpower aggression, international peace movements, political leadership, and public opinion within the United States--must do their part for peace. If the United Nations, above all, fails to oppose a U.S. invasion of Iraq, it will forfeit its honor, integrity and raison d'=EAtre. A military attack on Iraq is obviously criminal; completely inconsistent with urgent needs of the Peoples of the United Nations; unjustifiable on any legal or moral ground; irrational in light of the known facts; out of proportion to other existing threats of war and violence; and a dangerous adventure risking continuing conflict throughout the region and far beyond for years to come. The most careful analysis must be made as to why the world is subjected to such threats of violence by its only superpower, which could so safely and importantly lead us on the road to peace, and how the UN can avoid the human tragedy of yet another major assault on Iraq and the powerful stimulus for retaliatory terrorism it would create. 1. President George Bush Came to Office Determined to Attack Iraq and Change its Government. George Bush is moving apace to make his war unstoppable and soon. Having stated last Friday that he did not believe Iraq would accept UN inspectors, he responded to Iraq's prompt, unconditional acceptance by calling any reliance on it a "false hope" and promising to attack Iraq alone if the UN does not act. He is obsessed with the desire to wage war against Iraq and install his surrogates to govern Iraq by force. Days after the most bellicose address ever made before the United Nations--an unprecedented assault on the Charter of the United Nations, the rule of law and the quest for peace--the U.S. announced it was changing its stated targets in Iraq over the past eleven years, =66rom retaliation for threats and attacks on U.S. aircraft which were illegally invading Iraq's airspace on a daily basis. How serious could those threats and attacks have been if no U.S. aircraft was ever hit? Yet hundreds of people were killed in Iraq by U.S. rockets and bombs, and not just in the so called "no fly zone," but in Baghdad itself. Now the U.S. proclaims its intentions to destroy major military facilities in Iraq in preparation for its invasion, a clear promise of aggression now. Every day there are threats and more propaganda is unleashed to overcome resistance to George Bush's rush to war. The acceleration will continue until the tanks roll, unless nonviolent persuasion prevails. 2. George Bush Is Leading the United States and Taking the UN and All Nations Toward a Lawless World of Endless Wars. George Bush in his "War on Terrorism" has asserted his right to attack any country, organization, or people first, without warning in his sole discretion. He and members of his administration have proclaimed the old restraints that law sought to impose on aggression by governments and repression of their people, no longer consistent with national security. Terrorism is such a danger,they say, that necessity compels the U.S. to strike first to destroy the potential for terrorist acts from abroad and to make arbitrary arrests, detentions, interrogations, controls and treatment of people abroad and within the U.S. Law has become the enemy of public safety. "Necessity is the argument of tyrants." "Necessity never makes a good bargain." Heinrich Himmler, who instructed the Nazi Gestapo "Shoot first, ask questions later, and I will protect you," is vindicated by George Bush. Like the Germany described by Jorge Luis Borges in Deutsches Requiem, George Bush has now "proffered (the world) violence and faith in the sword," as Nazi Germany did. And as Borges wrote, it did not matter to faith in the sword that Germany was defeated. "What matters is that violence ... now rules." Two generations of Germans have rejected that faith. Their perseverance in the pursuit of peace will earn the respect of succeeding generations everywhere. The Peoples of the United Nations are threatened with the end of international law and protection for human rights by George Bush's war on terrorism and determination to invade Iraq. Since George Bush proclaimed his "war on terrorism," other countries have claimed the right to strike first. India and Pakistan brought the earth and their own people closer to nuclear conflict than at any time since October 1962 as a direct consequence of claims by the U.S. of the unrestricted right to pursue and kill terrorists, or attack nations protecting them, based on a unilateral decision without consulting the United Nations, a trial, or revealing any clear factual basis for claiming its targets are terrorists and confined to them. There is already a near epidemic of nations proclaiming the right to attack other nations or intensify violations of human rights of their own people on the basis of George Bush's assertions of power in the war against terrorism. Mary Robinson, in her quietly courageous statements as her term as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights ended, has spoken of the "ripple effect" U.S. claims of right to strike first and suspend fundamental human rights protection is having. On September 11, 2002, Colombia, whose new administration is strongly supported by the U.S., "claimed new authority to arrest suspects without warrants and declare zones under military control," including "[N]ew powers, which also make it easier to wiretap phones and limit foreigners' access to conflict zones... allow security agents to enter your house or office without a warrant at any time of day because they think you're suspicious." These additional threats to human rights follow Post-September 11 "emergency" plans to set up a network of a million informants in a nation of forty million. See, New York Times, September 12, 2002, p. A7. 3. The United States, Not Iraq, Is the Greatest Single Threat to the Independence and Purpose of the United Nations. President Bush's claim that Iraq is a threat justifying war is false. Eighty percent of Iraq's military capacity was destroyed in 1991 according to the Pentagon. Ninety percent of materials and equipment required to manufacture weapons of mass destruction was destroyed by UN inspectors during more than eight years of inspections. Iraq was powerful, compared to most of its neighbors, in 1990. Today it is weak. One infant out of four born live in Iraq weighs less than 2 kilos, promising short lives, illness and impaired development. In 1989, fewer than one in twenty infants born live weighed less than two kilos. Any threat to peace Iraq might become is remote, far less than that of many other nations and groups and cannot justify a violent assault. An attack on Iraq will make attacks in retaliation against the U.S. and governments which support its actions far more probable for years to come. George Bush proclaims Iraq a threat to the authority of the United Nations while U.S.-coerced UN sanctions continue to cause the death rate of the Iraqi people to increase. Deaths caused by sanctions have been at genocidal levels for twelve years. Iraq can only plead helplessly for an end to this crime against its people. The UN role in the sanctions against Iraq compromise and stain the UN's integrity and honor. This makes it all the more important for the UN now to resist this war. Inspections were used as an excuse to continue sanctions for eight years while thousands of Iraqi children and elderly died each month. Iraq is the victim of criminal sanctions that should have been lifted in 1991. For every person killed by terrorist acts in the U.S. on 9/11, five hundred people have died in Iraq =66rom sanctions. It is the U.S. that threatens not merely the authority of the United Nations, but its independence, integrity and hope for effectiveness. The U.S. pays UN dues if, when and in the amount it chooses. It coerces votes of members. It coerces choices of personnel on the Secretariat. It rejoined UNESCO to gain temporary favor after 18 years of opposition to its very purposes. It places spies in UN inspection teams. The U.S. has renounced treaties controlling nuclear weapons and their proliferation, voted against the protocol enabling enforcement of the Biological Weapons Convention, rejected the treaty banning land mines, endeavored to prevent its creation and since to cripple the International Criminal Court, and frustrated the Convention on the Child and the prohibition against using children in war. The U.S. has opposed virtually every other international effort to control and limit war, protect the environment, reduce poverty and protect health. George Bush cites two invasions of other countries by Iraq during the last 22 years. He ignores the many scores of U.S. invasions and assaults on other countries in Africa, Asia, and the Americas during the last 220 years, and the permanent seizure of lands =66rom Native Americans and other nations--lands like Florida, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, California, and Puerto Rico, among others, seized by force and threat. In the same last 22 years the U.S. has invaded, or assaulted Grenada, Nicaragua, Libya, Panama, Haiti, Somalia, Sudan, Iraq, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and others directly, while supporting assaults and invasions elsewhere in Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas. It is healthy to remember that the U.S. invaded and occupied little Grenada in 1983 after a year of threats, killing hundreds of civilians and destroying its small mental hospital, where many patients died. In a surprise attack on the sleeping and defenseless cities of Tripoli and Benghazi in April 1986, the U.S. killed hundreds of civilians and damaged four foreign embassies. It launched 21 Tomahawk cruise missiles against the El Shifa pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum in August 1998, destroying the source of half the medicines available to the people of Sudan. For years it has armed forces in Uganda and southern Sudan fighting the government of Sudan. The U.S. has bombed Iraq on hundreds of occasions since the Gulf War, including this week, killing hundreds of people without a casualty or damage to an attacking plane. 4. Why Has George Bush Decided The U.S. Must Attack Iraq Now? There is no rational basis to believe Iraq is a threat to the United States, or any other country. The reason to attack Iraq must be found elsewhere. As governor of Texas, George Bush presided over scores of executions, more than any governor in the United States since the death penalty was reinstated in 1976 (after a hiatus from 1967). He revealed the same zeal he has shown for "regime change" for Iraq when he oversaw the executions of minors, women, retarded persons and aliens whose rights under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of notification of their arrest to a foreign mission of their nationality were violated. The Supreme Court of the U.S. held that executions of a mentally retarded person constitute cruel and unusual punishment in violation of the U.S. Constitution. George Bush addresses the United Nations with these same values and willfulness. His motives may include to save a failing Presidency which has converted a healthy economy and treasury surplus into multi-trillion dollar losses; to fulfill the dream, which will become a nightmare, of a new world order to serve special interests in the U.S.; to settle a family grudge against Iraq; to weaken the Arab nation, one people at a time; to strike a Muslim nation to weaken Islam; to protect Israel, or make its position more dominant in the region; to secure control of Iraq's oil to enrich U.S. interests, further dominate oil in the region and control oil prices. Aggression against Iraq for any of these purposes is criminal and a violation of a great many international conventions and laws including the General Assembly Resolution on the Definition of Aggression of December 14, 1974. Prior regime changes by the U.S. brought to power among a long list of tyrants, such leaders as the Shah of Iran, Mobutu in the Congo, Pinochet in Chile, all replacing democratically elected heads of government. 5. A Rational Policy Intended to Reduce the Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction in The Middle East Must Include Israel. A UN or U.S. policy of selecting enemies of the U.S. for attack is criminal and can only heighten hatred, division, terrorism and lead to war. The U.S. gives Israel far more aid per capita than the total per capita income of sub Sahara Africans from all sources. U.S.-coerced sanctions have reduced per capita income for the people of Iraq by 75% since 1989. Per capita income in Israel over the past decade has been approximately 12 times the per capita income of Palestinians. Israel increased its decades-long attacks on the Palestinian people, using George Bush's proclamation of war on terrorism as an excuse, to indiscriminately destroy cities and towns in the West Bank and Gaza and seize more land in violation of international law and repeated Security Council and General Assembly resolutions. Israel has a stockpile of hundreds of nuclear warheads derived =66rom the United States, sophisticated rockets capable of accurate delivery at distances of several thousand kilometers, and contracts with the U.S. for joint development of more sophisticated rocketry and other arms with the U.S. Possession of weapons of mass destruction by a single nation in a region with a history of hostility promotes a race for proliferation and war. The UN must act to reduce and eliminate all weapons of mass destruction, not submit to demands to punish areas of evil and enemies of the superpower that possesses the majority of all such weapons and capacity for their delivery. Israel has violated and ignored more UN Resolutions for forty years than any other nation. It has done so with impunity. The violation of Security Council resolutions cannot be the basis for a UN-approved assault on any nation, or people, in a time of peace, or the absence of a threat of imminent attack, but comparable efforts to enforce Security Council resolutions must be made against all nations who violate them. 6. The Choice Is War Or Peace. The UN and the U.S. must seek peace, not war. An attack on Iraq may open a Pandora's box that will condemn the world to decades of spreading violence. Peace is not only possible; it is essential, considering the heights to which science and technology have raised the human art of planetary and self-destruction. If George Bush is permitted to attack Iraq with or without the approval of the UN, he will become Public Enemy Number One--and the UN itself worse than useless, an accomplice in the wars it was created to end. The Peoples of the World then will have to find some way to begin again if they hope to end the scourge of war. This is a defining moment for the United Nations. Will it stand strong, independent and true to its Charter, international law and the reasons for its being, or will it submit to the coercion of a superpower leading us toward a lawless world and condone war against the cradle of civilization? Do not let this happen. Sincerely, Ramsey Clark =2E........... If they kill him for speaking out, then let's make sure thousands rise up to try to fill his place. Bob From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 23:52:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 23:52:33 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ticb-0005zc-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 23:52:33 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ticP-0000Xs-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 23:52:21 -0600 Received: from cmailg1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.195.171]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tW79-00047x-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:31:15 -0600 Received: from modem-1039.tiger.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.136.212.15] helo=computer.aidan-jones.fsnet.co.uk) by cmailg1.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17tW77-000856-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 17:31:13 +0100 Message-Id: <5.1.0.14.2.20020923172920.00acb210@pop.freeserve.net> X-Sender: aidan-jones.fsnet.co.uk@pop.freeserve.net X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: Mark Aidan Jones Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Subject: [A-List] BBC: Charles Kennedy warns of 'US imperialism' Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 17:30:36 +0100 Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 17:30:36 +0100 Charles Kennedy has delivered his strongest warning yet over the prospect of war with Iraq. The Liberal Democrat leader expressed alarm over "more than a hint" of US "imperialism" as the international community considers action against Saddam Hussein. Am I alone in worrying about the undermining of the moral, legal and practical authority of the United Nations? Mr Kennedy told his party's annual conference in Brighton that all diplomatic and political avenues must be explored before military action is considered. He used an emergency statement in Brighton to ask: "Am I alone in feeling increasingly concerned about this concept called 'regime change'? I think not. "Who decides the legitimacy of such change? On what basis in international law? And with what ultimate objectives in mind? "I have yet to hear a satisfactory answer to those questions. There is more than a hint of imperialism here. "Am I alone in worrying about the undermining of the moral, legal and practical authority of the United Nations? Again, I think not." Weapons inspectors The speech is Mr Kennedy's most forthright warning yet over the crisis, but he argued that it "constitutes a sane and measured approach". "The first priority of the British government must be the return of the UN weapons inspectors," he told delegates. "Anything less than unfettered access anywhere in Iraq is unacceptable." Mr Kennedy warned that the "sensitivities of the Muslim community at home and the views of the Arab world abroad" must be taken into account when considering the Iraq situation. The Lib Dems leader has already criticised the "bellicose rhetoric" of some elements in the Bush administration. 'Dangers of military force' He is doubtful over whether a long-awaited "dossier" of evidence against Saddam - due to be published on Tuesday - will calm fears over military action. He wants the United Nations to be at the centre of the debate over Iraq. "We Liberal Democrats will do everything we possibly can to ensure that the route of unconditional inspection within the UN structure is followed rather than the extreme uncertainties and dangers of the use of military force." 'Obligatory' Mr Kennedy stressed that while he would not criticise the prime minister over his efforts to combat international terrorism, he warned: "But we will not suspend out critical faculties either. "That would be to abandon the necessary and obligatory role which is effective parliamentary opposition." The Commons should be able to vote on any proposal that might involve commiting British troops to military action, he said. Parliament will be recalled at 1130BST on Tuesday, with the long-awaited dossier of evidence against Iraq published at 0800 the same day. The Liberal Democrat party conference agenda has been re-arranged and most debates have been moved to other days to allow MPs to return to Westminster for the recall of Parliament. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2275119.stm From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Mon Sep 23 23:53:00 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 23:53:00 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tid2-0005zk-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 23:53:00 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ticr-0000YD-00; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 23:52:49 -0600 Received: from imo-r09.mx.aol.com ([152.163.225.105]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tWUp-0004Jv-00 for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 10:55:43 -0600 Received: from Waistline2@aol.com by imo-r09.mx.aol.com (mail_out_v34.10.) id w.174.f120c08 (3657) for ; Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:55:09 -0400 (EDT) From: Waistline2@aol.com Message-ID: <174.f120c08.2ac0a16c@aol.com> Subject: Re: [A-List] US/Russia tensions: Iraq To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="part1_174.f120c08.2ac0a16c_boundary" X-Mailer: AOL 7.0 for Windows US sub 10641 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:55:08 EDT Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 12:55:08 EDT --part1_174.f120c08.2ac0a16c_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit In a message dated 9/23/02 6:06:10 AM Pacific Daylight Time, Michael.Keaney@mbs.fi writes: > Putin's fragile balance with US over Iraq > By Robert Cottrell in Moscow > Financial Times: September 23 2002 > > A year has passed almost to the day since President Vladimir Putin gave the > landmark foreign policy speech in which he said Russia would support US > action in Afghanistan against the Taliban, and the US use of military bases > in central Asia. > > Whatever Mr Putin expected to follow in terms of Russia's foreign > relations, he cannot be entirely happy with what he has now. > > He finds himself pressed to back an impending second US action, this time > in Iraq, which, to Russia, has little justification or merit. > > Mr Putin knows his stance will have little effect on US behaviour. The US > has made clear its readiness to oust the Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, with > or without broad international help. But Mr Putin also knows his actions > may assume great short-term importance, because Russia is a permanent > member of the UN Security Council. > > If the US and Britain push ahead with a motion seeking more explicit UN > authority for military action, or making a more explicit threat of it, > Russia could veto the motion. It would be lobbied hard by Baghdad, its old > friend, to do so. > > Nodding such a motion through could, on the other hand, help trigger > military action. > > I Preparation for capital's imperial intrusions and hot war has a way of compelling everyone to speak in military terms. The multinational state of the United States of North America has always been the enemy of the peoples of the world and the international hangman of revolution. What has obscured this elementary truth has been its evolution during the past century in connection with a world passing from feudal economic, social and political relations. This very real process confuses a large sector of the American public. Much of the Middle East appears as extremely backwards and reactionary political entities to the American people - and they are. This framework of thinking has evolved based on America's peculiar development. Even the Queen and King of England is spoken of as an outlandish and reactionary institution within the American public. Another aspect of that, which has obscured American financial capital role in the world, was the existence of Soviet power. Soviet power was industrial implements in the hands of an insurrectionary force, that poured every advance in science and production into their military apparatus. It is rather clear by the genuflecting of Putin, that the singular institution on earth that stayed the hand of aggressive American lead imperialism was the proletariat state. The ability to inflict unacceptable loses on an opponent governs the outcome of war and conditions the theater of conflict. The Stalin government was a military formation and operated as such, imposing harsh conditions on the Soviet peoples. At least this is what many thought who could not grasp the seriousness of class struggle and proletarian social revolution. Today one can look at the conditions Putin imposes on the former Soviet proletariat and make a comparison. What stayed the hand of world imperialism and opened the door for the historic world wide petit bourgeois movement or rather colonial revolts to complete their historic journey into the proletariat was Soviet power. Soviet Power was nuclear force in the hands of the world proletariat shock brigades. Today we are witnesses to the human toil that will mark the collapse of Soviet power, and the historian will be charged with doing the body count. Stalin's body terror indeed! Stalin did what no one else was prepared to do and that was what was needed. Stalin's personality and relentless purge of a society will be understood anew and on the basis of what is shaping up to be - perhaps, 2 billion body bags - before it is over. Comrade Stalin did not knife the proletariat in the back and his planned division of the world in the aftermath of W.W.II was based on the relative strength of two vast armies. The various compromises with imperialism in the petit bourgeois world was based on a material assessment of the relative strength of the proletariat shock brigade and the forces of the social revolution. Compromises such as the creation of the state of Israel was not "betrayal" but arose based on the capacity of the proletariat to advance. This should now be obvious as American imperialism fights to reconfigure the Middle East. Soviet power should be understood as the proletariat organized as a military - insurrectionary force, on a continental basis and not a happy land of communism. Actually, communism is impossible on the basis of the industrial infrastructure. Lenin understood this and so did Stalin and both sworn to battle the bourgeoisie through every transition in the mode of production. Putin will be condemned in history. Melvin P. --part1_174.f120c08.2ac0a16c_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit In a message dated 9/23/02 6:06:10 AM Pacific Daylight Time, Michael.Keaney@mbs.fi writes:


Putin's fragile balance with US over Iraq
By Robert Cottrell in Moscow
Financial Times: September 23 2002

A year has passed almost to the day since President Vladimir Putin gave the landmark foreign policy speech in which he said Russia would support US action in Afghanistan against the Taliban, and the US use of military bases in central Asia.

Whatever Mr Putin expected to follow in terms of Russia's foreign relations, he cannot be entirely happy with what he has now.

He finds himself pressed to back an impending second US action, this time in Iraq, which, to Russia, has little justification or merit.

Mr Putin knows his stance will have little effect on US behaviour. The US has made clear its readiness to oust the Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, with or without broad international help. But Mr Putin also knows his actions may assume great short-term importance, because Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

If the US and Britain push ahead with a motion seeking more explicit UN authority for military action, or making a more explicit threat of it, Russia could veto the motion. It would be lobbied hard by Baghdad, its old friend, to do so.

Nodding such a motion through could, on the other hand, help trigger military action.



I
Preparation for capital's imperial intrusions and hot war has a way of compelling everyone to speak in military terms. The multinational state of the United States of North America has always been the enemy of the peoples of the world and the international hangman of revolution.

What has obscured this elementary truth has been its evolution during the past century in connection with a world passing from feudal economic, social and political relations. This very real process confuses a large sector of the American public. Much of the Middle East appears as extremely backwards and reactionary political entities to the American people - and they are. This framework of thinking has evolved based on America's peculiar development. Even the Queen and King of England is spoken of as an outlandish and reactionary institution within the American public.

Another aspect of that, which has obscured American financial capital role in the world, was the existence of Soviet power. Soviet power was industrial implements in the hands of an insurrectionary force, that poured every advance in science and production into their military apparatus.

It is rather clear by the genuflecting of Putin, that the singular institution on earth that stayed the hand of aggressive American lead imperialism was the proletariat state. The ability to inflict unacceptable loses on an opponent governs the outcome of war and conditions the theater of conflict. The Stalin government was a military formation and operated as such, imposing harsh conditions on the Soviet peoples. At least this is what many thought who could not grasp the seriousness of class struggle and proletarian social revolution.

Today one can look at the conditions Putin imposes on the former Soviet proletariat and make a comparison. What stayed the hand of world imperialism and opened the door for the historic world wide petit bourgeois movement or rather colonial revolts to complete their historic journey into the proletariat was Soviet power. Soviet Power was nuclear force in the hands of the world proletariat shock brigades.

Today we are witnesses to the human toil that will mark the collapse of Soviet power, and the historian will be charged with doing the body count.

Stalin's body terror indeed! Stalin did what no one else was prepared to do and that was what was needed.

Stalin's personality and relentless purge of a society will be understood anew and on the basis of what is shaping up to be - perhaps, 2 billion body bags - before it is over.

Comrade Stalin did not knife the proletariat in the back and his planned division of the world in the aftermath of W.W.II was based on the relative strength of two vast armies. The various compromises with imperialism in the petit bourgeois world was based on a material assessment of the relative strength of the proletariat shock brigade and the forces of the social revolution. Compromises such as the creation of the state of Israel was not "betrayal" but arose based on the capacity of the proletariat to advance. This should now be obvious as American imperialism fights to reconfigure the Middle East.

Soviet power should be understood as the proletariat organized as a military - insurrectionary force, on a continental basis and not a happy land of communism. Actually, communism is impossible on the basis of the industrial infrastructure. Lenin understood this and so did Stalin and both sworn to battle the bourgeoisie through every transition in the mode of production.

Putin will be condemned in history.

Melvin P.

--part1_174.f120c08.2ac0a16c_boundary-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Sep 24 00:07:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 24 Sep 2002 00:07:36 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tirA-000631-00 for ; Tue, 24 Sep 2002 00:07:36 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tiqv-0000dH-00; Tue, 24 Sep 2002 00:07:21 -0600 Received: from cmailg1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.195.171]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tiqK-0000d8-00 for ; Tue, 24 Sep 2002 00:06:45 -0600 Received: from [195.92.168.141] (helo=tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk) by cmailg1.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17tiqJ-0005po-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 24 Sep 2002 07:06:43 +0100 Received: from modem-760.zebra.dialup.pol.co.uk ([81.76.146.248] helo=computer.tiscali.co.uk) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17tiqH-0000re-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Tue, 24 Sep 2002 07:06:41 +0100 Message-Id: <5.1.0.14.2.20020924065951.00aa3040@pop.tiscali.co.uk> X-Sender: markjones011@tiscali.co.uk@pop.tiscali.co.uk X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: Mark Jones Subject: Re: [A-List] US/Russia tensions: Iraq In-Reply-To: <174.f120c08.2ac0a16c@aol.com> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 24 Sep 2002 07:06:04 +0100 Date: Tue, 24 Sep 2002 07:06:04 +0100 At 23/09/2002 17:55, Melvin wrote: >Another aspect of that, which has obscured American financial capital role >in the world, was the existence of Soviet power. Soviet power was >industrial implements in the hands of an insurrectionary force, that >poured every advance in science and production into their military apparatus. > >It is rather clear by the genuflecting of Putin, that the singular >institution on earth that stayed the hand of aggressive American lead >imperialism was the proletariat state. The ability to inflict unacceptable >loses on an opponent governs the outcome of war and conditions the theater >of conflict. The Stalin government was a military formation and operated >as such, imposing harsh conditions on the Soviet peoples. At least this is >what many thought who could not grasp the seriousness of class struggle >and proletarian social revolution. > >Today one can look at the conditions Putin imposes on the former Soviet >proletariat and make a comparison. The effect of the USSR and eastern Europe 'rejoining the broad path of world civilisation' as Mikhail Gorbachev used to say during the days of perestroika and the final sell-out of the Soviet Union, has been quite the opposite to the claims made: the calamitous fall in living standards and the collapse of industrial production, agricultural production, and major social services, the mass pauperization of the region, with more than 400m people thrown into poverty (less than $4/day by UN definitions) has all had the effect of taking more than 500m _out of_ the modern world and back into a barbarised pre-modern society. Urban life has collapsed and along with it, life-expectancies, Infantile mortality has soared and the population of the former Soviet Union is a staggering 20m below the demographic trendline (there is a lot in the A-List archive in detail). The population of Russia alone is falling at the rate of a million a year.Under socialism, they were part of modernity, now they are not. Mark From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Tue Sep 24 11:01:58 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Tue, 24 Sep 2002 11:01:58 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tt4P-0001xv-00 for ; Tue, 24 Sep 2002 11:01:57 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tt3q-0004RX-00; Tue, 24 Sep 2002 11:01:22 -0600 Received: from patan.sun.com ([192.18.98.43]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17tt3B-0004RO-00 for ; Tue, 24 Sep 2002 11:00:41 -0600 Received: from hsoak01a.ebay.sun.com ([129.149.70.1]) by patan.sun.com (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3) with ESMTP id LAA05734 for ; Tue, 24 Sep 2002 11:00:41 -0600 (MDT) Received: from minna.forte.com (minna [129.149.74.18]) by hsoak01a.ebay.sun.com (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3/ENSMAIL,v2.2) with ESMTP id KAA26040 for ; Tue, 24 Sep 2002 10:00:40 -0700 (PDT) Message-Id: <4.3.2.7.1.20020924093043.00b5a900@hsoak01a.ebay.sun.com> X-Sender: joannab@hsoak01a.ebay.sun.com X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 4.3.2 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: joanna bujes Subject: Re: [A-List] A privatized public good: Higher Education In-Reply-To: Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Tue, 24 Sep 2002 09:34:38 -0700 Date: Tue, 24 Sep 2002 09:34:38 -0700 At 04:53 PM 09/23/2002 -0700, you wrote: >I don't know how these the Economist people reach such lovely >conclusions. The university system in Turkey is about to >collapse, if not collapsed already. The quality of education at >most state universities are getting worse and worse, and majority >of those with university diplomas from non-elite universities are >ending up unemployed. If they are lucky enough to land on jobs, >they are required to perform mindless jobs that even most high >school graduates of two decades ago refused to perform. This >year, most private universities couldn't recruit enough students >for their programs because most qualified students did not have >the money. They had to open their doors to the least qualified >but rich students so that they had some. Once you give up on the project of social justice, there is not much need for universities beyond training scientists and administrators. This has been the trend world-wide for the last twenty years. Eqbal Ahmad(?) had a lot to say about that, particularly with regard to the interplay between failing public schools and growing private religious schools and the effect of this shift on countries such as Pakistan. The only silver lining to this cloud is that all those pomo humanists will find themselves without a job soon and may even discover that not all employment narratives are equal. Joanna From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 00:26:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 00:26:38 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u5d8-0005RD-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 00:26:38 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u5cI-0000qz-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 00:25:46 -0600 Received: from cmailm1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.193.18]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u5bD-0000qq-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 00:24:39 -0600 Received: from [195.92.168.141] (helo=tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk) by cmailm1.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17u5bC-0000iM-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 07:24:38 +0100 Received: from modem-344.rhino.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.137.97.88] helo=mjones.tiscali.co.uk) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17u5b9-0006vz-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 07:24:36 +0100 Message-Id: <5.1.0.14.2.20020925072517.00abda38@pop.freeserve.net> X-Sender: markjones011@tiscali.co.uk@pop.tiscali.co.uk X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: Mark Jones Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Subject: [A-List] Mentioning the war Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 07:25:41 +0100 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 07:25:41 +0100 The German minister who likened Bush to Hitler was sacked. So what will=20 happen to Al Gore? Martin Kettle Wednesday September 25, 2002 The Guardian In a speech this week, a senior western politician controversially compared= =20 the effects of George Bush's foreign policy to the conditions which created= =20 the rise of Adolf Hitler. But the politician in question was not the=20 unfortunate former German justice minister Herta D=E4ubler-Gmelin, who was= =20 sacked by Chancellor Gerhard Schr=F6der on Monday for saying much the same= =20 thing at the height of the German election. The man who drew the comparison= =20 this time was none other than former US vice-president Al Gore. In his remarkable speech in San Francisco on Monday night - remarkable not= =20 least because Gore spoke there with a freedom and frankness that he=20 disastrously abandoned during his presidential election campaign two years= =20 ago - Gore ripped into Bush's ideological opposition to "nation-building"=20 as a catastrophically dangerous policy. "The absence of enlightened=20 nation-building after world war one led directly to the conditions which=20 made Germany vulnerable to fascism and the rise of Adolf Hitler, and made=20 all of Europe vulnerable to his evil designs," Gore argued. It remains to be seen whether the US defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld,=20 takes time out this week to accuse Gore of "poisoning" the domestic=20 American political atmosphere with his remarks. But, given the contempt in= =20 which Rumsfeld and his hawkish conservative colleagues in the Bush=20 administration hold most Democrats, it is a fair bet that someone somewhere= =20 on the right will do so soon. After all, this was the term that Rumsfeld=20 used to describe the effect of D=E4ubler-Gmelin's comments on US-German=20 relations. And in the Rumsfeldian worldview, those who are not with them=20 are against them. The sudden depths to which relations between the Bush administration and=20 Europe's most important nation have plunged this week are a remarkable=20 testament to the way that the rightwing Republican government in Washington= =20 now does things. As well as his "poisoning" remark, Rumsfeld went out of=20 his way to deny his German opposite number, Peter Struck, a one-on-one=20 meeting in Washington this week. Meanwhile, the White House press=20 secretary, Ari Fleischer, dismissed Schr=F6der's letter to Bush on the=20 D=E4ubler-Gmelin row as "an explanation rather than an apology" and the=20 re-elected chancellor was said by an anonymous Bush aide to have "a lot of= =20 work to do" to repair ties between them. At one level, these spats are obviously silly and trivial. Experience says= =20 they are likely to blow over before long. But this is not a traditional=20 American administration. It believes, according to the new White House=20 national security strategy document it published at the weekend, that this= =20 is a world where there is just "a single sustainable model for national=20 success". And that model is certainly not the German one. No US administration for the past half-century would have adopted such an=20 insouciant approach towards Germany as the Bush administration is now=20 doing. To Americans with a sense of cold war history, the alliance with=20 Europe's greatest power, to say nothing of the nation in which thousands of= =20 US service personnel, planes and bombs were based, was far too important to= =20 be put at hazard by the petulant behaviour coming out of Washington this= week. Certainly Schr=F6der is keen for fences to be quickly mended, which is one= =20 reason why he came to talk tactics with Tony Blair over dinner at Downing=20 Street last night. But can one be quite so sure these days that the wounds= =20 will heal quickly? Maybe this is to underestimate the capacity of=20 Washington's ideologically driven triumphalist Republican rulers to take=20 offence from those - like Europeans and US Democrats - whom they regard as= =20 the failures of history. What is striking about the former German justice minister's famous remarks= =20 is not how ill-judged they were, but how restrained. Politically, of=20 course, it is not very clever to make friends and influence people by=20 comparing them with Hitler. But the point that D=E4ubler-Gmelin actually= made=20 was not such an unreasonable one. Bush, she argued, "wants to divert=20 attention from his domestic problems. It's a classic tactic. It's one that= =20 Hitler used." And Bismarck too, she might have added. That Bush has been in trouble on the home front this year is not seriously= =20 open to doubt. If November's mid-term elections were fought on issues such= =20 as the economy or corporate governance, the Republicans would be on the=20 defensive. The war against terrorism and Iraq, by contrast, is their issue.= =20 Every Washington commentator has been pointing out this week that the=20 Republicans are trying to keep Congress focused on Iraq for as long as=20 possible at the moment, in order to ensure a good result in November. That hardly makes Bush a Hitler. But then Herta D=E4ubler-Gmelin did not say= =20 he was. Her crime, of course, was to bracket the two men in a single=20 multi-clause thought. In terms of scoring a direct hit on the conservative= =20 Republican ego, it was almost the equivalent of the shock of September 11=20 itself. It penetrated the carapace of Republican self-regard with the=20 directness that the hijacked planes hit the twin towers. For these are politicians in the grip of a vision of themselves as=20 neo-Churchills, not neo-Hitlers. Churchill's stock has always been=20 exceptionally high in the US, of course, but it has risen still further as= =20 post September 11 Americans don the mantle of the world's embattled lone=20 defenders of freedom. Bush now keeps an Epstein bust of Churchill in his=20 office (shamelessly loaned to him from the British government's official=20 art collection by Tony Blair). And only last month, Rumsfeld himself made a= =20 speech in California comparing Bush - "that lone voice expressing concern=20 about what was happening" - to Churchill. Then there is the current obsession among American conservatives that=20 Europe is in the grip of a wave of violent anti-semitism. Europeans=20 underestimate at their peril the degree to which many Americans, not just=20 many American Jews, see Europe as the place where the locals kill Jews, and= =20 America as the place where the locals don't. So when a German politician,=20 even a distinguished social democrat of the postwar generation, mentions=20 Hitler, the effect on some US opinion is almost as provocative as if she=20 had praised him. In the obsessive world of American conservatism, Germany is, for the=20 moment, a marked nation. If Rumsfeld, who is historically one of=20 Washington's pro-German rather than its Anglophile politicians, takes the=20 abrupt view that he does, then what about the rest? One can be sure that=20 others in his party - a party in which not to possess a passport is=20 sometimes a badge of honour - will have even more contemptuous views.=20 Germany may be the world's third-strongest economic power, but in the eyes= =20 of some in Washington it could be on the verge of consignment into the=20 ever-growing dustbin of US-defined failed states. There is, though, a great paradox in all this. The US administration that=20 prides itself on avoiding the entrapment of nation-building has managed,=20 inadvertently and against its real intentions, to shape the future of one=20 of its most important allies. The US has intervened in European elections=20 plenty of times in the past to help rightwing parties. But this must be the= =20 first time in many decades that Washington's efforts have managed to dash=20 the prize from the right's hands and place it in those of a social democrat. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 00:47:28 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 00:47:28 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u5xI-0005WU-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 00:47:28 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u5wY-0000vu-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 00:46:43 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u5vm-0000vl-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 00:45:54 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P6iDX21927 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 09:44:13 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P6iBN21865 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 09:44:11 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Blair on Iraq: world reaction Thread-Index: AcJkXwXwBdB/bdBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Blair on Iraq: world reaction Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 09:47:19 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 09:47:19 +0300 Hesitancy by France, a warning from China and peace hopes in Egypt VICKY COLLINS The Herald, 25 September 2002 Politicians from across the world yesterday reacted to Britain's publication of the dossier on Iraq, with their responses ranging from approval to condemnation. Nato George Robertson, the secretary general, did not respond directly to the publication of the dossier, but urged allies to take the danger of "criminal states" seriously, echoing weeks of Washington rhetoric against Iraq. "We need...to think very carefully about the role of this alliance in the future, not least in protecting our citizens from criminal terrorists and criminal states, especially where they are armed with weapons designed for massive and indiscriminate destruction," he said. "Our common aim must be to maintain the will and the capabilities to deter those...threats where possible, to root them out and destroy them where deterrence has broken down." America Ari Fleischer, the White House spokesman, said Mr Blair and the US president were at one on the issue. "I don't think there's any difference between us," said Mr Fleischer, who called the document "frightening in terms of Iraq's intentions and abilities to acquire weapons". "I think this reinforces the very sizeable doubts that people around the world have about whether Saddam Hussein has any interest in peace," he added. "There's a mountain of evidence about what Saddam has done and his intentions to continue his murderous ways." France Jacques Chirac, the French president, said he was not "acquainted with the evidence published by Tony Blair". France has a right of veto in the UN Security Council as one of the five permanent members, along with the US, Britain, China, and Russia. All five will have to agree to any new resolution on Iraq. Mr Chirac said France would not oppose a resolution if it concerned the return of UN weapons inspectors, but added: "Do we need to recall the conditions (that Iraq must fulfil) in a supplementary security council resolution? I am not sure." Belarus President Alexander Luka-shenko denied allegations that his nation had provided technology or goods which would allow Iraq to produce nuclear weapons, as claimed in the dossier. "We have very good relations with Iraq, but we co-operate with Iraq only in those areas that are not prohibited by the United Nations," Mr Lukashenko said. Lukashenko insisted that Belarus was "not the kind of state, in its potential and might, that could defy the opinion of the world community". China Zhu Rongji, the Chinese prime minister, said there would be "severe consequences" if the US took unilateral action against Iraq. However, the Chinese government said it would consider a possible resolution by the US and Britain to use force if Iraq does not honour demands for weapons inspections. "We have not seen the draft of the resolution. I think if there is such a resolution draft, we would be willing to study it," a foreign ministry spokeswoman said. Ukraine President Leonid Kuchma denied claims that Ukraine had sold a radar system to Iraq in violation of UN sanctions. He said his government had sent an open letter to the head of the UN Security Council "a few days ago", requesting a special commission to investigate claims of the country's role in arms supplies to Iraq. "Ukraine is prepared to make available all information, and it is open to inspections by competent authorised international organisations, including US experts," he said. "The Ukrainian president has repeatedly stated that his country has sold neither military weapons nor military technology to Iraq." Egypt The Egyptian government said US threats to attack Iraq were no longer justified following a meeting between President Hosni Mubarak and Naji Sabri, the Iraqi foreign minister, who assured him that Iraq's offer to allow the return of weapons inspectors was unconditional. "Iraq agreed on the return of inspectors and thus negated any excuse or reason for continued threats of attacking Iraq," Ahmed Maher, the Egyptian foreign minister sair. He added that the crisis appeared to be easing and expressed hopes for a forthcoming meeting between Hans Blix, a UN weapons inspector, and Iraqi officials. Greece The Greek foreign ministry said it will study a copy of the dossier after a copy was given to George Papandreou, the Greek foreign minister. The dossier included a map which showed that Iraqi weapons now being developed could reach Greece. "Mr Papandreou reconfirmed the position of the Greek government for the need to respect the decisions of the United Nations and the exhaustion of all possibilities for seeking a diplomatic solution," Panos Beglitis, a ministry spokesman, said. Singapore Lee Kuan Yew, a senior Singaporean minister, yesterday warned that a US-led war against Iraq would "complicate" ties between Washington and Muslim countries. "Few doubt that the US will act to remove (Saddam Hussein) unless he hands over (his) weapons of mass destruction," he said. Singapore is one of Washington's key allies in south-east Asia. Kuwait The ruling al-Sabah family and members of parliament were yesterday among more than 100 prominent Kuwaitis who criticised Arab states for their alleged "silence" about Iraqi violations. "This (Iraqi) regime has based its continued rule on a suspicious Arab silence ... some even defended this regime," a statement said. But it insisted that "any upcoming change in Iraq" must avoid harming civilians, safeguard Iraq's unity and lead to democracy. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 00:50:05 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 00:50:05 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u5zp-0005Wl-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 00:50:05 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u5zS-0000wU-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 00:49:42 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u5yh-0000wL-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 00:48:55 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P6lED25831 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 09:47:14 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P6lCN25701 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 09:47:12 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Blair on Iraq: UK military reaction Thread-Index: AcJkX3GMBdB/c9BmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Blair on Iraq: UK military reaction Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 09:50:19 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 09:50:19 +0300 Blair could win war without fighting a battle MAJOR CHARLES HEYMAN Commentary The Herald, 25 September 2002 ALMOST all of the military analysts on both sides of the Atlantic were waiting for the government's paper on the threat from Iraq, which was published yesterday morning. Media in the US was especially interested because it was expected to set out the reasons why the prime minister (and by implication George Bush, the US president) has decided to go to war against Iraq. I got my copy of the document just after 8am and my initial reaction was dismay. For such an important undertaking as a war against Iraq, a prime minister needs to take the country with him, and if this document was meant to convince the country that war against Iraq is necessary now, it had clearly failed. I had visions of the country and parliament split right down the middle with a battle between the doves and hawks. The sort of battle we really do not need at such a critical time. At about 8.20am, I heard Andrew Marr, the BBC correspondent, say that the document was a "bit weak" and I was in total agreement with him. However, by about 9am and on my third read through, everything fell into place. I began to realise that I was reading one of the cleverest documents written by a UK government in years. Mr Blair had done it again and outflanked the opposition. This report had nothing to do with going to war against Iraq, and all of us were looking for something that was not there. This document is almost certainly designed to be the supporting evidence for getting United Nations weapon inspectors back into Iraq under a much stricter and much harsher inspection programme than before. As supporting evidence for a new United Nations resolution regarding the inspection of Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction manufacturing facilities, the report almost certainly succeeds. What the document probably says is that there is not going to be a war next week and military operations against Iraq are not about to start in the short term. If the weapon inspectors are allowed in (and Iraq has said that they will be) there will probably be a period of at least 30 days to confirm Saddam Hussein's good intent. At the same time, it is very likely that a large-scale military build-up, designed to remind Saddam Hussein that the allies mean business will go on in parallel with the inspections. If Saddam Hussein does not deliver and allow unhindered access, "the gloves will be off" and he will have to accept the consequences. Those consequences will almost certainly involve large numbers of US and UK troops, aircraft and ships arriving in the Iraqi operational area around late November or early December. So, Mr Blair has done it again and I, for one, underestimated him. If in the end military operations against Iraq are necessary, he will have taken the correct legal route through the United Nations and the broad mass of the country will almost certainly be behind him. In the longer term, and I believe very important to Mr Blair, is how the history books will treat him. On this showing, he will get an extremely good write-up. On the one hand, he has prevented the US from acting in isolation, and on the other appears to be making a convincing attempt to bring the international community on board. I have a sneaking feeling that someone from the Foreign Office has been reminding Mr Blair that "the greatest general is the one who wins the war without fighting a battle". If he can win this one without fighting a battle, he will get an A*** in his annual prime minister's report. * Major Charles Heyman, is editor of Jane's World Armies, the defence journal. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:05:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:05:36 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u86y-00064K-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:05:36 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u86k-0001i3-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:05:22 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u86M-0001hu-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:04:58 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P93HP00359 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:03:17 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P93FN32698 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:03:15 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Germany & The Policy Network Thread-Index: AcJkcnM5BdB/fNBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Germany & The Policy Network Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:06:23 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:06:23 +0300 Schr=F6der seeks Blair's help in making up with Washington John Hooper in Berlin Wednesday September 25, 2002 The Guardian The newly re-elected German chancellor, Gerhard Schr=F6der, flew to London last night for urgent talks with Tony Blair on how to repair Berlin's stricken relationship with the United States. A Downing Street spokesman said Mr Schr=F6der asked for the meeting when Mr Blair rang him on Sunday night to congratulate him on his election victory. In the chancellor's second attempt in two days to mollify a furiously angry White House, his defence minister, Peter Struck, announced at the Nato meeting in Warsaw that Germany and the Netherlands were ready to take command of the international security assistance force in Kabul when Turkey's term runs out at the end of the year. The US is keen to see its European allies take on such roles to spread military commitments more evenly. On Monday, Mr Schr=F6der said one of his ministers had resigned after reportedly comparing President George Bush's tactics in respect of Iraq to Adolf Hitler's. The accusation enraged the White House, already angry at the chancellor for basing his election campain largely on opposition to what he termed would be a military "adventure" in Iraq. Condoleezza Rice, the president's security adviser, said relations with Germany had been "poisoned": a term repeated by the defence secre tary, Donald Rumsfeld, at the Nato meeting on Monday. The German ambassador to London, Thomas Matussek, hinted at a way forward yesterday when he said that Berlin's support for action against Saddam Hussein would depend on the wording of any UN resolution on Iraq. During the election campaign, Mr Schr=F6der ruled out participation in an attack, even if it had the blessing of the UN. The chancellor's trip to London was highly unusual on at least two counts. Newly re-elected leaders normally wait until they have formed a government before setting off abroad. And, in the case of German chancellors, the first visit is customarily to the French president. Last night's dash to Westminster underlined the degree to which the old Franco-German axis has been supplanted at the heart of Europe, and also the personal warmth between the two leaders. But above all it highlighted the alarm felt in Berlin at the way in which an apparent electoral ploy got out of hand. Though he can continue to proffer olive branches in other areas, Mr Schr=F6der's room for manoeuvre on the Iraq issue has been sharply circumscribed by the outcome of Sunday's election. Voters handed him a parliamentary majority of nine, which makes his government crucially dependent on disciplined voting by the pacifist Greens. A revolt by just five of its 55 MPs could pull the rug from under him. Yesterday brought fresh evidence of the US's continuing anger. Mr Rumsfeld failed to speak to Mr Struck at a Nato photo shoot, even though he was standing near him. Mr Struck played down the differences. "Yesterday I shook Rumsfeld's hand," he insisted. "But this has to become more intensive. I think we'll return to a very normal working relationship, slowly but surely." In an interview broadcast by the BBC, Mr Matussek stressed Berlin's support for the war on terrorism. "Tony Blair said two days ago: 'There may well be differences of opinion but I have no doubt that in the end we will all act closely, jointly linked. I think this is what is going to happen." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:07:40 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:07:40 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u88y-00064Y-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:07:40 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u88d-0001ih-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:07:19 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u87n-0001iR-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:06:27 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P94kh01939 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:04:46 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P94jN01876 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:04:45 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK state: London mayoral election Thread-Index: AcJkcqc2BdB/gtBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK state: London mayoral election Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:07:50 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:07:50 +0300 Livingstone blames tube chiefs for strike Kevin Maguire Wednesday September 25, 2002 The Guardian Strikers are expected to virtually paralyse London Underground today after Ken Livingstone blamed "knuckleheads" in the tube's management for a fourth strike in 18 months. The mayor of London publicly criticised executives in charge of the system as a 24-hour stoppage from 8pm last night threatened to halt most services until tomorrow morning. Tube managers expect little more than a couple of dozen of its 500 trains to run today and warned passengers few others were likely to leave depots this evening when the walkout officially ends at 8pm. With a second 24-hour strike called from 8pm next Tuesday, Mr Livingstone turned on underground managers rather than strike leaders. The mayor criticised those operating a system he formally takes control of next year after managers rejected another union offer to use binding arbitration to resolve a dispute over an imposed 3% pay rise. Mr Livingstone said: "Londoners are disgusted that they're going to be inconvenienced because a knucklehead management at London Underground are not prepared to go to arbitration." The RMT rail union is claiming 5.7% and the Aslef drivers a "substantial" increase while tube managers maintain 3% is all they can afford. A management spokeswoman said both sides had been to the Acas conciliation service but the underground had declined binding arbitration because it had no more to spend. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:08:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:08:36 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u89s-00066S-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:08:36 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u89e-0001mG-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:08:22 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u88f-0001it-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:07:21 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P95dZ03091 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:05:39 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P95bN03028 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:05:38 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK sub-imperialism: crisis management Thread-Index: AcJkcshpBdB/iNBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK sub-imperialism: crisis management Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:08:46 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:08:46 +0300 Blair calls for conference on Middle East peace Britain will seek urgent action to resolve conflict Brian Whitaker, and Jonathan Steele in Jerusalem Wednesday September 25, 2002 The Guardian Tony Blair yesterday called for a new conference to revive the Middle East peace process, signalling his personal view that the Israeli-Palestinian crisis must be tackled at the same time as Iraq. "We need urgent action to build a security infrastructure that gives both Israelis and Palestinians confidence and stops the next suicide bomb closing down the prospects of progress," the prime minister told the Commons. "We need political reform for the Palestinian Authority and we need a new conference on the Middle East peace process based on the twin principles of a secure Israel and a viable Palestinian state," he continued. "What we need is a firm commitment to action and a massive mobilisation of energy to get the peace process moving again, and we will play our part in any way we can." Although many officials in Washington seem content to leave the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the back burner while they deal with Iraq, Mr Blair has privately told cabinet colleagues the peace process must move forward in parallel with any action on Iraq. He is said to regard the conflict as an achilles heel that could jeopardise a successful US and British strategy on Iraq. Sources close to Mr Blair say he is working on plans for a major initiative to revive the peace process. For months Arab leaders have been arguing that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict should have a much higher priority than Iraq, and that dealing with Iraq in isolation would destroy any appearance of western even-handedness towards the region. Later in yesterday's Commons debate, answering a question from Labour MP Gerald Kaufman, Mr Blair said Britain was working with the US and others to try to put together a "proper conference" on how to get the Middle East peace process restarted. He added: "I think that the concern of the Arab world is not that they hold any brief for Saddam at all - they don't - but they feel that we should be pursuing with equal vigour a just resolution in the Middle East. But that just resolution, as I point out to them, has to involve security for Israel as well as a viable Palestinian state." Whitehall sources said Mr Blair's remarks essentially signalled his personal blessing for moves made by the quartet of Middle East mediators - the US, Russia, the EU and the UN - in New York last week. The quartet resolved to "encourage all parties to step up to their responsibilities to seek a just and comprehensive settlement to the conflict based on UN security council resolutions 242, 338, and 1397, the Madrid terms of reference, the principle of land for peace, and implementation of all existing agreements between the parties". The Quartet is working on a three-stage plan that could achieve a final settlement within three years. In preparation for the creation of a Palestinian state, it also supports "efforts by the Palestinians to develop a constitution which ensures separation of power, transparency, accountability, and the vibrant political system which Palestinians deserve". Dore Gold, a foreign policy adviser to the Israeli prime minister, said yesterday he saw little value in a conference until there is a change of line among the Palestinians. "Some months ago Israel recommended the convening of a regional conference based on like-minded leaders who renounce terror. It's hard to put [the Palestinian leader Yasser] Arafat into that category," he said. "Israel is focused right now on the emergence of a new Palestinian leadership, based on accountability, which is able to pull them out of the morass." The Palestinian minister for information, Yasser Abed Rabbo, said he hoped the idea of a new conference was not a "smokescreen for an attack on Iraq but a genuine idea which will be pursued. Mr Blair made a similar proposal at that time and said he wanted to plan an active role but it was suppressed by Britain's main ally, the United States." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:09:35 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:09:35 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8Ap-00066d-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:09:35 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8AZ-0001mf-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:09:19 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u89W-0001lf-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:08:14 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P96W904973 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:06:32 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P96VN04849 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:06:31 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK secret state: JIC Thread-Index: AcJkcuffBdB/jtBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK secret state: JIC Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:09:39 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:09:39 +0300 Security team briefed Blair David Hencke, Westminster correspondent Wednesday September 25, 2002 The Guardian The joint intelligence committee, which briefed Tony Blair on Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, is composed of intelligence chiefs and Whitehall officials. The committee meets weekly and is chaired by 54-year-old John Scarlett, a former director of the secret intelligence service (SIS), who has a lifetime of experience working for the security services with postings in Nairobi, Paris and Moscow. It has no set time for its meetings, which can be called at short notice in times of crisis, such as the present situation in Iraq. Its members include representatives from SIS, MI5, MI6, the Foreign Office, the Cabinet Office, the Treasury and customs and excise. The committee is supported by a secretariat and an assessment staff. The committee has a number of specialist interdepartmental sub-committees, known as current intelligence groups, which produce detailed reports. They employ technical experts and handle reports from intelligence officers around the world. A specialist committee examining the situation in Iraq would have provided the main material for the dossier for Mr Blair. The committee also has strong links with foreign intelligence services, certainly exchanging information with the CIA and FBI and probably with the Israeli secret service, Mossad. Mr Scarlett will report directly to Mr Blair and would have given him a full briefing before today's Commons debate. The joint intelligence committee is paralleled by a cabinet committee which oversees the running of the intelligence services. This committee, chaired by Mr Blair, has five senior cabinet ministers as members, who will be better briefed on Iraq than the rest of the cabinet. They are John Prescott, the deputy prime minister; Jack Straw, foreign secretary; Gordon Brown, chancellor; David Blunkett, home secretary; and Geoff Hoon, defence secretary. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:10:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:10:37 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8Bp-00066o-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:10:37 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8BX-0001n8-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:10:19 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8AZ-0001me-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:09:20 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P97cc07141 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:07:38 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P97aN07068 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:07:36 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US imperialism: Ivory Coast Thread-Index: AcJkcw8oBdB/lNBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Ivory Coast Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:10:44 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:10:44 +0300 America sends troops to Ivory Coast Matthew Engel in Washington Wednesday September 25, 2002 The Guardian About 200 US special forces troops were expected to arrive in the Ivory Coast last night to try and rescue American children who have been trapped in a school in the city of Bouake for almost a week. French soldiers were also heading for the city, and the two countries are believed to be coordinating plans to evacuate foreigners from the area. Bouake, the country's second-largest city, has been controlled by rebel forces since the start of an attempted coup last Thursday. More than 270 people have killed in the unrest in a nation that was once considered one of the most stable in west Africa. At least 100 American children, aged between five and 12, staff and a smaller number of Canadian and Dutch pupils are inside the school, the International Christian Academy, which mainly serves the children of missionaries from various west African countries. "At the request of the US ambassador to the Ivory Coast, the US European Command is moving forces to assure the safety of American citizens," said Lt Cmdr Don Sewell, a Pentagon spokesman. He declined to give further details of any planned operation, saying the forces were ready "for all contingencies". The children were not under direct attack, but firing in the grounds was "scaring the kids to death", a local missionary, James Forlines said. The Ivory Coast's main opposition leader, Alassane Dramane Outtara, yesterday accused the government of trying to kill him after rebels began the insurrection. He has taken refuge in the French embassy and said: "It's clear they are using this situation to try to liquidate and eliminate people in my party." Mr Outtara's supporters are mainly Muslim northerners while the government of President Laurent Gbagbo is backed by southern Christians. The borders with Guinea and Burkina Faso have been closed, as the ruling party's newspaper accused Burkina Faso of being behind the uprising. African leaders are due to meet tomorrow in Morocco to try to resolve the crisis. It is uncertain whether President Gbagbo will attend. Ivory Coast is the world's largest producer of cacao, the raw material of cocoa and chocolate. Prices hit a 15-year peak after the trouble began. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:11:32 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:11:32 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8Ci-00066z-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:11:32 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8CW-0001nj-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:11:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8Be-0001nT-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:10:26 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P98jC08362 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:08:45 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P98hN08299 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:08:43 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Iraq: unimpeachable source on uranium quest Thread-Index: AcJkczbuBdB/mtBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Iraq: unimpeachable source on uranium quest Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:11:51 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:11:51 +0300 African gangs offer route to uranium Suspicion falls on Congo and South Africa James Astill in Nairobi and Rory Carroll in Johannesburg Wednesday September 25, 2002 The Guardian Iraqi agents have been negotiating with criminal gangs in the Democratic Republic of Congo to trade Iraqi military weapons and training for high-grade minerals, possibly including uranium, according to evidence obtained by the Guardian. It comes as the dossier unveiled by Tony Blair accused Saddam Hussein of trying to buy African uranium to give Iraq's weapons programme a nuclear capability. The dossier did not identify any country allegedly approached by Baghdad but security analysts said the Congo was the likeliest, followed by South Africa. "We know Saddam has been trying to buy significant quantities of uranium from Africa, though we do not know whether he has been successful," Mr Blair said. A delegation of five Iraqis was arrested in Nairobi by the Kenyan secret service last November while travelling to eastern Congo on fake Indian passports, a western intelligence officer said. Documents seen by the Guardian show that leaders of the Mayi-Mayi, a brutal militia embroiled in the country's civil war, visited Baghdad twice and offered diamonds and gold to the Iraqis. Uranium was not mentioned in the documents but the intelligence officer said the Mayi-Mayi would be able to obtain the material in areas it controlled. Initial contact between Baghdad and the militia was said to have been brokered by a Sudanese general who offered Sudan as a conduit for Iraqi oil and arms. Since US obtained uranium for its first atom bombs from a mine in the Kivu region, foreign governments have vied for the Congo's uranium. In 1998 North Korea sent military trainers to Shinkolobe under an agreement with the country's former president, Laurent Kabila. They were swiftly withdrawn under American pressure after it was alleged that they had reopened a uranium mine. Citing sources in Brussels, French radio reported last year that Mobutu loyalists had moved 10kg (22lbs) of uranium bars to Libya, en route to a "rogue state" believed to be Iraq. Some analysts were sceptical. "That uranium mine is an old story but as far as I know it has been closed for some time. I don't know of any rumours or information regarding the Iraqis being involved," Jakkie Cilliers, head of the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, said. Dr Cilliers was also doubtful of Baghdad obtaining uranium from South Africa. "As a past nuclear power we are an obvious suspect but it is un likely because the programme was dismantled under the observation of the the International Atomic Energy Agency." In the 1980s South Africa's apartheid rulers built several nuclear bombs and, according to a BBC investigation, a year before halting the weapons programme in 1989 they traded enriched uranium with Saddam Hussein. The BBC cited an anonymous South African intelligence official who said that Washington, which favoured Saddam at the time, approved the deal. "About 50kg were sold to the Iraqis. The Americans gave the green light for the deal," the official was quoted as saying. South Africa signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty in 1991 and dismantled its en richment capabilities but Dr Cilliers did not rule out the possibility of rogue officials or former officials dealing with Iraq after that date. Yesterday was a national holiday in South Africa and no government spokesman was available to respond to Mr Blair's speech. Africa produces a fifth of the world's uranium. Niger, Namibia, South Africa and Gabon have exported the material. Last year Niger was the biggest producer at 3,096 tonnes. At least four other countries - Congo, Zambia, Central African Republic and Botswana - are said to have exploitable deposits. Most of the deposits are mined by European and South African companies and end up exported to Japan and France. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:21:40 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:21:40 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8MW-00069V-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:21:40 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8MC-0001p6-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:21:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8Ln-0001ox-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:20:55 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P9JE618185 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:19:14 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P9JCN18112 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:19:12 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Britain/US split: Iraq Thread-Index: AcJkdK3ZBdB/oNBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Britain/US split: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:22:20 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:22:20 +0300 This is interesting mostly for its confirmation of the deep-seated and cross-party nature of the anti-US orientation within the British state apparatus, showing the extent to which right wing concern at US hegemony and unilateralism runs. Of course there are a few partisans who wish to score points against Blair at any cost, but Duncan Smith's slavish kowtowing to his US sponsor Donald Rumsfeld is also a cause for alarm among more experienced hands. Backbench Tories break ranks from their leader over any attack plans By Paul Waugh Deputy Political Editor The Independent, 25 September 2002 A succession of Tory MPs broke ranks with Iain Duncan Smith yesterday to make clear their concerns about British support for unilateral military action by America in Iraq. Dissent that materialised at a meeting on Monday night of the party's backbench 1922 Committee was underlined by a series of interventions in the Commons. >From Douglas Hogg, a Foreign Office minister during the Gulf War, to Edward Leigh, the chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, MPs from left and right lined up to express opposition to President Bush's plans for "regime change". Lord King of Bridgwater, who was Defence Secretary during the Gulf War, also criticised those in the White House who had said there was no point in trying to get weapons inspectors back into Iraq because they were bound to fail. In contrast to Mr Duncan Smith's overall support for the Government's stance, many of his backbenchers demanded to know what Britain's exit strategy would be and the shape of a post-Saddam regime. Michael Ancram, the shadow Foreign Secretary, encountered similar concerns when he addressed the 1922 Committee. Backbenchers said they were worried about a possible backlash from President Saddam against Britain and the failure by the US to tackle the Middle East peace process. Some MPs were particularly dismayed at the offer made by Mr Duncan Smith to Mr Blair in a private meeting that he would join forces with the Government to present a common front on the issue. It is understood that Keith Simpson, a defence spokesman, has warned that MPs are worried about the Opposition giving Mr Blair a "blank cheque" for any action. Many Tory MPs have long backed Arab interests and although they support Britain's relationship with the US, they were vitriolic about President Bush's decision to swap deterrence for a pre-emptive strategy against rogue states. The most senior Tory MP with such worries, the former prime minister John Major, was absent from the debate yesterday but colleagues echoed his fear that an attack on Baghdad would leave President Saddam with little option but to use his weapons. Mr Ancram said: "In any party there are differing views. We were talking about the various options that are open and about the evidence we would see in the document [the dossier]." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:23:42 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:23:42 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8OU-0006BS-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:23:42 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8O8-0001vF-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:23:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8N1-0001pd-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:22:11 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P9KUW19342 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:20:30 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P9KRN19210 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:20:27 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Blair on Iraq: Robert Fisk analysis Thread-Index: AcJkdNq7BdB/ptBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Blair on Iraq: Robert Fisk analysis Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:23:36 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:23:36 +0300 Robert Fisk: The dishonesty of this so-called dossier If these pages of trickery are based on 'probably' and 'if', we have no business going to war The Independent, 25 September 2002 Tony Blair's "dossier" on Iraq is a shocking document. Reading it can only fill a decent human being with shame and outrage. Its pages are final proof - if the contents are true - that a massive crime against humanity has been committed in Iraq. For if the details of Saddam's building of weapons of mass destruction are correct - and I will come to the "ifs" and "buts" and "coulds" later - it means that our massive, obstructive, brutal policy of UN sanctions has totally failed. In other words, half a million Iraqi children were killed by us - for nothing. Let's go back to 12 May 1996. Madeleine Albright, the US Secretary of State, had told us that sanctions worked and prevented Saddam from rebuilding weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Our Tory government agreed, and Tony Blair faithfully toed the line. But on 12 May, Mrs Albright appeared on CBS television. Leslie Stahl, the interviewer, asked: "We have heard that half a million children have died. I mean, that's more than died in Hiroshima. And, you know, is the price worth it?" To the world's astonishment, Mrs Albright replied: "I think this is a very hard choice, but the price, we think the price is worth it." Now we know - if Mr Blair is telling us the truth - that the price was not worth it. The price was paid in the lives of hundreds of thousands of children. But it wasn't worth a dime. The Blair "dossier" tells us that, despite sanctions, Saddam was able to go on building weapons of mass destruction. All that nonsense about dual-use technology, the ban on children's pencils - because lead could have a military use - and our refusal to allow Iraq to import equipment to restore the water-treatment plants that we bombed in the Gulf War, was a sham. This terrible conclusion is the only moral one to be drawn from the 16 pages that supposedly detail the chemical, biological and nuclear horrors that the Beast of Baghdad has in store for us. It's difficult, reading the full report, to know whether to laugh or cry. The degree of deceit and duplicity in its production speaks of the trickery that informs the Blair government and its treatment of MPs. There are a few titbits that ring true. The new ammonium perchlorate plant illegally supplied by an Indian company - which breached those wonderful UN sanctions, of course - is a frightening little detail. So is the new rocket test stand at the al-Rafah plant. But this material is so swamped in trickery and knavery that its inclusion becomes worthless. Here is one example of the dishonesty of this "dossier". On page 45, we are told - in a long chapter about Saddam's human rights abuses - that "on March 1st, 1991, in the wake of the Gulf War, riots (sic) broke out in the southern city of Basra, spreading quickly to other cities in Shia-dominated southern Iraq. The regime responded by killing thousands". What's wrong with this paragraph is the lie is in the use of the word "riots". These were not riots. They were part of a mass rebellion specifically called for by President Bush Jnr's father and by a CIA radio station in Saudi Arabia. The Shia Muslims of Iraq obeyed Mr Bush Snr's appeal. And were then left to their fate by the Americans and British, who they had been given every reason to believe would come to their help. No wonder they died in their thousands. But that's not what the Blair "dossier" tells us. And anyone reading the weasel words of doubt that are insinuated throughout this text can only have profound concern about the basis for which Britain is to go to war. The Iraqi weapon programme "is almost certainly" seeking to enrich uranium. It "appears" that Iraq is attempting to acquire a magnet production line. There is evidence that Iraq has tried to acquire specialised aluminium tubes (used in the enrichment of uranium) but "there is no definitive intelligence" that it is destined for a nuclear programme. "If" Iraq obtained fissile material, Iraq could produce nuclear weapons in one or two years. It is "difficult to judge" whether al-Hussein missiles could be available for use. Efforts to regenerate the Iraqi missile programme "probably" began in 1995. And so the "dossier" goes on. Now maybe Saddam has restarted his WMD programme. Let's all say it out loud, 20 times: Saddam is a brutal, wicked tyrant. But are "almost certainly", "appears", "probably" and "if" really the rallying call to send our grenadiers off to the deserts of Kut-al-Amara? There is high praise for UN weapons inspectors. And there is more trickery in the relevant chapter. It quotes Dr Hans Blix, the executive chairman of the UN inspection commission, as saying that in the absence of (post-1998) inspections, it is impossible to verify Iraqi disarmament compliance. But on 18 August this year, the very same Dr Blix told Associated Press that he couldn't say with certainty that Baghdad possessed WMDs. This quotation is excised from the Blair "dossier", of course. So there it is. If these pages of trickery are based on "probably" and "if", we have no business going to war. If they are all true, we murdered half a million Iraqi children. How's that for a war crime? From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:31:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:31:36 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8W8-0006Cz-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:31:36 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8Vr-0001wJ-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:31:19 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8Ut-0001wA-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:30:19 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P9Sb728668 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:28:37 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P9SaN28606 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:28:36 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK ideological state apparatus: Iraq Thread-Index: AcJkdf4jBdB/rdBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK ideological state apparatus: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:31:44 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:31:44 +0300 Two amazing things happened yesterday in the debate on Iraq in the House of Commons. The first of these was the wonderful speech by Labour MP Alan Simpson against military action, in which he very clearly outlined the rationale for attacking Iraq as a means of US oil companies riding roughshod over existing contracts signed between Iraq and Russian and French companies. In other words, he was relating precisely what is discussed so openly, without any shame, on the pages of the Washington Post. See http://lists.econ.utah.edu/pipermail/a-list/2002-September/020705.html The second amazing thing was that BBC World broadcast Alan Simpson's speech. We can only conclude that the brinkmanship that has marked this government's performance is operating at a peak level. I believe Simpson and others like George Galloway and Tam Dalyell are sincere in their opposition, but clever operators around Blair know that allowing certain seeds to be planted, however apparent their sedition, permits a certain leverage in negotiation, opinion management and options planning. Tam Dalyell: This MP declines to support a war against Iraq The Independent, 24 September 2002 Shortly after 11.30am this morning I hope to rise on a Point of Order to seek the Speaker's help about the procedure in today's debate. It appears that the Government will begin the proceedings by moving a motion "that this House do now adjourn''. Such a motion should be debatable and should allow a vote so that Members of Parliament who believe that the House should continue to sit can express that view in the lobby. But such a vote does not permit those of us who will be voting to give their reasons, and it is on that point that I am seeking the help of the Speaker of the House, Michael Martin. Clearly there are many MPs on all sides of the House who are opposed to military action against Iraq, and many others who represent servicemen and servicewomen in their constituencies who may be called upon to fight in such a war, and who have anxieties on behalf of themselves and their families. I am therefore asking the Speaker to consider accepting a manuscript motion worded as follows: "that this house declines to support a war against Iraq, by the use of the Royal Prerogative, unless it has been authorised, both by the UN Security Council and a motion carried in this House of Commons''. Only in this way can MPs discharge their responsibilities to their constituents. Such a motion would not preclude a motion to adjourn, which would follow at the end of the day's parliamentary business in the usual way. I do not know, nor do the clerks of the House of the Commons know, of any ruling by previous speakers that would bind Mr Speaker Martin to reject this request. I submit that his responsibility as he has frequently and bravely shown in the last two years is to the House as a whole and that his authority as Speaker on procedure is unchallengeable. Against this background I will appeal to him to allow the motion to be moved, debated, and voted upon in parallel with the motion to adjourn. Along with Major-General Patrick Cordingley - I was once a tank crew member of the Seventh Armoured Brigade, which he was later to command in the Gulf - I fervently believe that those who are sent to risk their lives are entitled to the knowledge that the country is overwhelmingly behind them in a legitimate, just and sensible cause. Such conviction does not exist in Britain at the present time. I believe that a very important point was made by Natasha Walter in The Independent of 12 September, when she pointed out that the great threat to the West now comes from tiny minorities in societies that have been damaged and fragmented. So, if Iraqis feel that war will further harm their already damaged society, perhaps we should listen to them. We should take seriously the Iraqi, who currently works as an academic in Britain, who told Natasha Walter: "It may be unpleasant or uncouth to suggest that in some way the United States asked for 11 September but if there is a war with Iraq they would be asking for a lot more terrorism.'' Bombing Afghanistan has hardly been a success in apprehending Osama bin Laden. Events in the past few days have driven me to the conclusion that justice and dealing with weapons of mass destruction is not at the top of the agenda of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Condoleezza Rice: they want an excuse for a military invasion that will leave the US oil companies in control of one of the world's largest reserves of oil. Having been to Iraq in 1994 and 1998, with Albert Reynolds, the former Irish prime minister and father of the peace process, I observe that once the inspectors were withdrawn in 1998 and the US and Britain launched Operation Desert Fox, it turned out that virtually every one of the bombing targets had been visited by UN inspectors over the previous six months. They jolly well were spies. If the Iraqis are resigned to an American attack anyway, why should they let in UN personnel who, though they might not know it, would be acting as forward air controllers drawing up an American hit list rather than monitoring compliance with UN resolutions? The invocation of the UN is a fig leaf. Recent events confirm that George Bush is determined to wage war against Iraq, whatever may emerge from the deliberations of the UN or any inspectors. There is one qualification to this: the US President makes increasing reference to the support that he is getting from Tony Blair. If the support were withdrawn, it is just possible that Bush might stay his hand (and this is the view of Congressman Bernard Sanders of Vermont, who is co-ordinating opposition to war against Iraq in the House of Representatives). This places a heavy responsibility on Parliament. Let us be clear that what is at issue is a war in which thousands of innocent people may die to prevent a contingency that is entirely hypothetical. International terrorism is awful. Full-scale war is many times more awful. By their invitation for any delegation of politicians, however critical, and experts to go to Iraq and see for themselves I believe, bluntly, that Saddam and Tariq Aziz are doing everything possible to avoid war. It seems to me that Bush and Blair are doing everything they can to avoid peace. That is why, and I can only speak for myself, I am in favour of regime change - in No 10 Downing Street. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:33:40 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:33:40 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8Y8-0006DD-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:33:40 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8Xo-0001wq-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:33:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8Wr-0001wh-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:32:21 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P9UeM31445 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:30:40 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P9UbN31307 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:30:37 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US state: ruling class split Thread-Index: AcJkdkYQBdB/tNBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US state: ruling class split Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:33:45 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:33:45 +0300 Al Gore: The United States has squandered the world's goodwill >From a speech made by the former Vice-President of the United States to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco The Independent, 25 September 2002 One of the points I want to make is that we have an obligation to look at the relationship between our war against terrorism and this proposed war against Iraq. We have a goal of regime change in Iraq; we also have a clear goal of victory in the war against terror. In the case of Iraq, it would be difficult to go it alone, but it's theoretically possible to achieve our goals in Iraq unilaterally. Nevertheless, by contrast, the war against terrorism manifestly requires a multilateral approach. It is impossible to succeed against terrorism unless we have secured the continuing, sustained co-operation of many nations. Our ability to secure that kind of multilateral co-operation in the war against terrorism can be severely damaged in the way we go about undertaking unilateral action against Iraq. I believe that this is unfortunate, because in the immediate aftermath of 11 September, more than a year ago, we had an enormous reservoir of goodwill and sympathy and shared resolve all over the world. That has been squandered in a year's time and replaced with great anxiety all around the world, not primarily about what the terrorist networks are going to do, but about what we're going to do. Now, my point is not that they're right to feel that way, but that they do feel that way. And that has consequences for us. Squandering all that goodwill and replacing it with anxiety in a year's time is similar to what was done by turning a $100bn surplus into a $200bn deficit in a year's time. If we quickly succeed in a war against the weakened and depleted fourth-rate military of Iraq, and then quickly abandon that nation, then the resulting chaos in the aftermath of a military victory in Iraq could easily pose a far greater danger to the United States than we presently face from Saddam. Here's why I say that. We know that he has stored away secret supplies of biological weapons and chemical weapons throughout his country. What if the al-Qa'ida members infiltrated across the borders of Iraq the way they are in Afghanistan? Then the question wouldn't be: "Is Saddam Hussein going to share these weapons with a terrorist group?" The terrorist groups would have an enhanced ability to just walk in there and get them. ----- Gore ends silence with outspoken attack on Bush By Andrew Buncombe in Washington The Independent, 25 September 2002 The former vice-president Al Gore has delivered a resounding attack on President Bush and his threatened strike against Iraq, accusing him of damaging America's war against terrorism. The comments were so outspoken that Mr Bush was forced yesterday to counter them directly. Having been all but silent for months, Mr Gore accused the President of squandering international sympathy towards the US and failing to recognise the diplomatic fall-out that would follow. He said Mr Bush's strategic doctrine of pre-emptive action was "troubling" and that a hasty war against Iraq could actually increase the likelihood of terrorist groups getting access to Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction. "After September 11 we had enormous sympathy, goodwill and support around the world," said Mr Gore. "We've squandered that, and in one year we've replaced that with fear, anxiety and uncertainty, not at what the terrorists are going to do but at what we are going to do." Speaking at the Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco, he added: ''The vast majority of those who sponsored, planned and implemented the cold-blooded murder of more than 3,000 Americans are still at large, still neither located nor apprehended, much less punished and neutralised. I do not believe that we should allow ourselves to be distracted from this urgent task simply because it is proving to be more difficult and lengthy than was predicted.'' Mr Gore's comments, the most outspoken criticism of Mr Bush yet from a high-profile Democrat, were widely interpreted as an attempt to test the water before deciding whether to run again for the Presidency. He has said he will announce his decision after the November mid-term elections. Mr Gore is not the only former member of the executive to have criticised Mr Bush over Iraq. Also on Monday, the former president Jimmy Carter questioned Mr Bush's stance, saying military action without the blessing of the United Nations would be a grave mistake that would put America in danger. "I'm quite concerned about the White House's pursuit of Saddam Hussein without the support of many of its allies from the Persian Gulf War," he said. "It is a radical departure from traditions that have shaped our nation's policy by Democratic and Republican presidents for more than 50 years." Responding to Mr Gore's comments, Mr Bush said: "There's lots of Democrats in Washington DC who understand that Saddam Hussein is a threat and that we must hold him to account. I believe you'll see as we work to get a strong resolution out of Congress that a lot of Democrats are willing to take the lead in keeping the peace." Polls suggest that such comments are getting through to the wider public. A new CNN/USA Today poll suggests that 49 per cent of those who are going to vote in the mid-term election feel Iraq is a more important issue now than the economy. The poll represents a big shift from August. Meanwhile, the White House praised Tony Blair for his "very bold" speech to Parliament and said the British dossier of evidence against Iraq was "frightening in terms of Iraq's intentions and abilities to acquire weapons". President Bush's spokesman, Ari Fleischer, said: "I think this reinforces the very sizeable doubts that people around the world have about whether Saddam Hussein has any interest in peace." One the issue of regime change, Mr Fleischer said he believed there was no difference between Mr Blair and Mr Bush. "I don't think there's any difference between us," he said. "I don't know what could lead anyone to that conclusion." Mr Fleischer said other nations had provided intelligence for Mr Blair's dossier but it was not the sum total of information about Iraq's alleged chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs. "Certainly, there is other intelligence," he said. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:35:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:35:33 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8Zx-0006DR-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:35:33 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8Zj-0001xN-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:35:19 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8Yj-0001xE-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:34:17 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P9Wad00889 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:32:36 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P9WYN00827 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:32:34 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Germany & The Policy Network Thread-Index: AcJkdovkBdB/utBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Germany & The Policy Network Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:35:42 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:35:42 +0300 Schr=F6der snubs his old enemy Chirac By Mary Dejevsky and Stephen Castle The Independent, 25 September 2002 The newly re-elected German Chancellor, Gerhard Schr=F6der, delivered a snub to the French President, Jacques Chirac, last night when he flew to London for a private dinner and talks with Tony Blair. The visit to Mr Blair created a stir because new French and German leaders have traditionally made their first post-election visits to each other's country to underline the Franco-German axis. Mr Chirac had courted Mr Schr=F6der's electoral rival, Edmund Stoiber, in anticipation of a centre-right government being elected. Mr Chirac even conferred the l=E9gion d'honneur, one of the highest distinctions the French state can offer, on Mr Stoiber. French diplomats played down the importance of the London visit, pointing to a scheduled meeting next month between Mr Chirac and the Chancellor, and denied that it was a snub. But coming so soon after Mr Schr=F6der's narrow re-election on Sunday, it inevitably sent many signals. Even before the election campaign, relations between Mr Chirac and Mr Schr=F6der were poor. The Chancellor's latest attempts to reform the costly Common Agricultural Policy were neutered by a Chirac-led rebellion at a European Union summit in Berlin in 1999. The London meeting, arranged when Mr Blair rang Mr Schr=F6der to congratulate him on his victory, was greeted as a coup by British diplomats, with one official describing it as "a reflection of the importance of the UK in Europe". In Berlin the dinner was given less dramatic billing, being presented as an opportunity for a private discussion among like-minded centre-left leaders whose numbers were declining before the victories of Goran Persson in Sweden and Mr Schr=F6der in Germany. By contrast Mr Blair and Mr Schr=F6der have a solid and businesslike relationship. An EU diplomat said: "They have supported each other in their mutual election campaigns, which shows they are close." In the past, co-operation between London and Berlin has been patchy even though both leaders profess to share the same "third way" philosophy. An attempt to forge common ideological ground through a joint pamphlet exploded in Mr Schr=F6der's face when it provoked opposition from the left of his party. The topics for discussion last night were expected to include the contents of the British Government's dossier on Iraq as well as negotiations on EU enlargement and reform. The German government sees Mr Blair as a key ally in its efforts to patch up its ties with Washington and Mr Blair may be hoping to act as an informal intermediary to bring a graceful end to the stand-off. With talks on the composition of the Social Democrat-Green coalition about to begin, the German opposition elected Angela Merkel, chairman of the Christian Democrat Union and Germany's most influential female politician, to lead their alliance in the Bundestag. Ms Merkel was elected unopposed after the CDU's alliance partner, the Christian Socialist Union, prevailed on its nominee, Friedrich Merz, not to stand. Ms Merkel had made clear her intention to contest the leadership of the opposition immediately after Mr Stoiber accepted the centre-right alliance had lost the election. Mr Stoiber settled some incipient alliance in-fighting by asking Mr Merz to step aside. This was an extraordinary intervention for the Bavarian premier and CSU leader, who had just led his party to its largest majority in Bavaria and nearly won the chancellorship. But it was an acknowledgement of Ms Merkel's contribution to his campaign. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:47:42 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:47:42 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8li-0006IT-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:47:42 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8lM-00021C-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:47:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8kz-000213-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:46:57 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P9jFr11640 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:45:15 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P9jDN11510 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:45:13 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: EU stability & growth pact Thread-Index: AcJkeFBEBdB/wtBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] EU stability & growth pact Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:48:21 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:48:21 +0300 Yet more signs that the straitjacket of the stability and growth pact is being loosened for ultimate dumping, following Neil Kinnock's helpful suggestions to Britain last week... See http://lists.econ.utah.edu/pipermail/a-list/2002-September/020563.html Brussels gives in to Germany and France on euro By Stephen Castle in Brussels The Independent, 25 September 2002 The European Commission has given France, Italy and Germany more time to honour a central economic pledge. Faced with mounting evidence of stagnant growth, the Commission acknowledged yesterday that Germany and France, the powerhouse of the eurozone economy, are in danger of breaking strict rules laid down for membership of the single currency. For months officials have insisted that European Union states can meet a 2004 target date for getting public finances into balance - an objective laid down in a set of economic policy guidelines. By yesterday that date was stretched to 2006. The decision ends a rift between the eurozone countries. Both France and Italy have called for a more flexible interpretation of the rules, arguing that more spending could boost growth. Spain, the Netherlands and Finland have urged tight budgetary rules to prevent sloppy public finances. Meanwhile, the Commission underlined its concern that big member states may be about to breach the binding rules of the so-called Growth and Stability Pact that say that countries' deficits must not exceed 3 per cent of gross domestic product. A report from the Commission published yesterday said Germany's deficit might exceed the ceiling in 2002 and that France had "dangerously small" leeway. Romano Prodi, the Commission president, acknowledged that both France and Germany were in danger of breaking the 3 per cent limit. Portugal, which exceeded that ceiling last year, hitting 4.1 per cent, may do the same again this year, he added. Mr Prodi said four countries - Germany, France, Italy and Portugal - "are not only dangerously close to, if not already above, the threshold, but all of them will also fail to respect their commitment to reach a close-to-balance position in 2003-2004". "By 2006 at the latest the objectives must be reached," Mr Prodi said. The stability pact and the economic policy guidelines were designed to protect the credibility of the euro and keep EU interest rates low. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:49:51 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:49:51 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8nn-0006Ih-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:49:51 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8nI-00021j-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:49:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8m1-00021X-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:48:01 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P9kJ112989 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:46:19 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P9kHN12869 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:46:17 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK eurozone membership: Will Hutton analysis Thread-Index: AcJkeHOoBdB/yNBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK eurozone membership: Will Hutton analysis Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:49:21 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:49:21 +0300 Now can we join the euro? The broad hints being dropped by the European Commission suggest the case for us adopting the single currency is now unanswerable Will Hutton Sunday September 22, 2002 The Observer I was surprised that Neil Kinnock went public to the degree he did. Presumably he was given the go-ahead by the European Commission at its private retreat last weekend. But at least we are all now party to what has been a private dialogue between the Commission and governments for some months. The European Union is ready to renegotiate the entire institutional and policy framework of the euro area to get Britain in. This is easily the most important political event of the last few months. He was briefing at a Britain in Europe event on Tuesday. The Growth and Stability Pact that has strapped the European economy into a fiscal straitjacket, increasingly ignored by European governments in any case, could be scrapped, he said. It would be replaced with a system overtly modelled on the British one that gives much greater flexibility and more latitude for growth in public investment. There would be no more absurd insistence on raising taxes and cutting spending as economic conditions darken. No more ridiculous cutting of necessary public investment programmes. The new rules should accommodate those countries that had low levels of national debt borrowing more for investment than those with high levels of debt. This is nothing short of a revolution. The kind of objections lodged at the TUC by anti-euro campaigners - that entering the euro would endanger Labour's spending plans on health and education - would fall at a stroke. Britain's spending plans and approach would become the model for others to copy. And, to add more spice, Kinnock suggested that sterling would be allowed to enter the system with a small devaluation of 5 per cent or so. In fact, he knows the Commission would go much further. It admires the monetary and fiscal regime invented by Gordon Brown and, as I have been told by senior Brussels insiders, wants to bring it into Europe lock, stock and barrel. It wants the European Central Bank to adopt a British-style inflation target and to be obliged to answer for undershooting it as much as overshooting it. It wants a much more active monetary policy that sets interest rates with an eye to what will happen in the future rather than what has already happened. And it wants the European Central Bank to have the same degree of transparency in its decision-making as the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, and to be structured in the same way. Nor do its reform plans stop there. The replacing of the Growth and Stability Pact would be accompanied by new institutional machinery for co-ordinating fiscal policy across Europe. Finance Ministers would set their budgets within the more forgiving framework, but with an eye to how their collective budget-making would impact on the European economy as a whole. The kind of two-way interaction of monetary and fiscal policy, within pre-declared rules as we have in Britain, would be reproduced across Europe. As far as the British are concerned, we would live with exactly the same framework we have now, together with a neat devaluation. The best thinkers in the Commission have been moving to this position for some months, and private signals have been sent to the Treasury and Number 10, but Kinnock's briefing last week was the first time the extent of its radicalism has become public. If the Government believes that the five tests are passed, then the last potential economic barriers to entry that Gordon Brown is known to harbour - over the structure and framework of euro policy along with the level of the exchange rate - are no barriers at all. The Government will rightly be able to claim that Europe has completely adopted Britain's approach to economic policy, that the tests are passed and to campaign hard for entry. In fact, the Commission's readiness to go public with what, until now, have been private indications reflects its growing concern about the credibility of European economic policy, but which it cannot voice publicly because, paradoxically, that would further undermine the system's credibility. France, Germany and Italy all need to boost their economies at the moment rather than restrict them as the rules require, and for Germany, with prices falling, the danger is that further fiscal belt-tightening will topple it into a dangerous recession. My understanding is that the Commission's informal explorations suggest there is a buy-in to offering the British reform proposals along these lines from every major European finance ministry, although there is concern that a Stoiber victory in Germany today could set back the emerging consensus . Even within the European Central Bank, there is growing appreciation that there must be change, although the faction from the former German central bank, the Bundesbank, remain implacably opposed. The belief is that a re-elected Schr=F6der, keenly aware of the need for relaxation of policy, would overrule it and insist on reform. The renegotiations with Britain would be the face-saving formula that would drive through the change that is wanted. The key is whether the five tests are passed. My view is that they have been for some time. The convergence between the British and other European economies is now very close. Our share of inward investment is falling, Britain is obviously flexible enough, the City needs a big economic hinterland and, with this kind of reform programme, it will be good for employment and growth. To proclaim otherwise by next spring is going to be difficult and, with this kind of reform programme on offer, almost impossible. The stage is set for an autumn referendum in 2003. The big question is now whether Blair and Brown dare. The Treasury is still rubbing its eyes in disbelief at the rapidity of events, but European reform on this scale was always Brown's game- plan. Entering the ERM at the wrong rate and within the wrong economic policy framework set the pro-European cause back massively, he believes, and he has been determined that entry into the euro should not be a similar fiasco, that it cements European integration rather than blows it apart. The consummate strategist, he's within sight of achieving his goal - contemporary Keynesianism for Europe around the British model. The economic case will be indisputable. Nobody, not even Blair and Brown, knows whether they will finally go for it next year, but last week the odds shortened dramatically. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:50:40 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:50:40 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8oa-0006Is-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:50:40 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8oG-00022D-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:50:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8nw-000224-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:50:00 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P9mIJ16582 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:48:18 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P9mHN16508 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:48:17 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Spain: rightwing subsidising Franco under wraps Thread-Index: AcJkeL3fBdB/ztBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Spain: rightwing subsidising Franco under wraps Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:51:25 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:51:25 +0300 Outrage over state subsidy for General Franco's secret archive By Elizabeth Nash in Madrid The Independent, 23 September 2002 Spanish historians are protesting at the huge subsidies granted by Madrid to computerise the archives of General Franco, which remain closed to the public. Angry historians have described as shocking and a disgrace the news that the Francisco Franco Foundation, run by the Fascist leader's daughter Carmen, received EUR83,000 (=A352,000) of taxpayers' money last year. The sum is more than 10 per cent of the Culture Ministry's annual budget for modernising archives and its largest single donation. Javier Tusell, a leading historian, said: "It's a disgraceful scam. The Franco Foundation receives more government funding than any comparable body and is the only one that is closed to the public. They say they want to digitalise everything but that's long-winded, expensive and unnecessary. The papers are all classified, that's sufficient. It's time this was declared a national archive open to all." The archive holds some 27,000 documents, mostly relating to Franco's regime from 1939 to 1975, that historians say were taken from his Prado palace by the family as he lay dying. The archive is comparable to those of Italy's Benito Mussolini and the Portuguese Fascist leader Antonio Salazar, which are both open to the public. The historian Antonio Elorza, who accuses the conservative government of "unprofessional behaviour", said: "For the state to pay for the recovery of papers that were taken from the state and are kept private is an incomprehensible and sinister scandal." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 03:55:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:55:38 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8tO-0006Ky-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:55:38 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8t5-00028L-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:55:19 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8rp-000289-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:54:01 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P9qKY21913 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:52:20 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P9qIN21841 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:52:18 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US legitimation crisis Thread-Index: AcJkeU08BdB/1dBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US legitimation crisis Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:55:26 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:55:26 +0300 Rupert Cornwell: Knives are out for corporate America's most greedy (well, until the next boom) The Independent, 25 September 2002 Yesterday, I guess, was pretty average for the criminal rapsheets which pass for business news front pages here. Members of the Rigas family which once controlled Adelphia, the sixth-largest US cable company, were indicted for swindling investors out of $250m (=A3160m), and hiding $2.3bn of corporate loans to the family. Alongside, we learnt that Citibank's Salomon Smith Barney investment bank had accepted a $5m fine for duping its clients and puffing the stock of Winstar, a broadband internet provider that went belly-up last year. Featuring in the saga, inevitably, is Jack Grubman, Salomon's $20m-a-year telecoms analyst who was Wall Street's version of a rock star - until it emerged he was an intimate of the bosses of WorldCom, another hot communications stock whose shares he pumped. WorldCom has also filed for bankruptcy, having concealed $6bn (or is it $8bn now?) of losses. One massive rip-off blurs into another. It is almost impossible to keep up. Thus however do market bubbles burst, with corporate collapses and charges of criminality. But they also end with smaller excesses, such as $15,000 dog umbrella stands, $2,900 coathangers and $1m birthday parties for the wife of Tyco's erstwhile chief executive, Dennis Kozlowski, in Sardinia (paid for by the company, naturally). Had we but known of them, we would have realised the longest and giddiest stock boom of modern times was approaching its lurid end. Was it only two or three years ago that the renaissance of corporate America was being hailed as a model for all civilisation? When Enron was hiring 250 MBAs a year and its fallen CEO, Jeffrey Skilling proclaimed a new mantra, how "In the old days, people worked for the assets but now the assets work for the people?" The business cycle had been banished, ahead lay only gleaming uplands of ever-rising profits, wealth and prosperity. James Glassman and Kevin Hassett published their book Dow 36,000 , explaining how - even at record levels - market values were but a third of what they should be. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett, once regarded as the wisest investor in the land, was mocked as a fuddy duddy for his aversion to hi-tech stocks. Beyond America's shores, the apparently irresistible US model underlay the so-called "Washington consensus" that liberal, free market economics were the key to development everywhere. Ah Nineveh and Tyre. The endless boom has been revealed for the bubble we all deep down knew it was. The Nasdaq is at a six-year low, having lost 76 per cent from its March 2000 peak, while the Dow is testing the "floor" it was held to have hit in July. Every boom of course has its wide boys. What we did not suspect, however, was how wide they were - the sheer extent of the greed, chicanery and downright fraud that sustained the boom. The shock that reverberates through mainstreet America is twofold. There is the amazement that the guardians were asleep on the job, or worse. Even now it is hard to believe how an audit firm such as Arthur Andersen, supposed to be a pillar of probity but in fact prey to a hopeless conflict of interest, failed to raise the red flag at its clients WorldCom and Enron - and then shredded compromising documents. Only now do we fully grasp how stock analysts such as Mr Grubman, naively imagined to be impartial judges of corporate performance, were really those corporations' East Coast promotion men. In short, figures and research papers on which an ordinary punter made his market judgements might be little more than a pack of lies. And if only that were all of it. Dog umbrellas and gala bashes on Italy's Costa Smeralda were the tip of an iceberg of greed. Not only did the CEOs of Enron, WorldCom and the rest lead their companies to disaster, they made a bomb in the process, often through stock options turned into gold by an artificially inflated stock price. When the market soared, the disparities were bearable. Chief executives such as Mr Skilling truly did seem visionaries, creating wealth for everyone. If chief executive pay leapt by 535 per cent between 1990 and 2001 and Jack Welch, the most revered of their number, fixed himself a retirement package to make Croesus blush, nobody protested too loudly. After all, the market rose 300 per cent then. But when stocks began their nosedive, the music changed. For the chief executives, as their companies plunged towards the abyss, it made no difference. Whether they walked away of their own accord, or were forced out, the top executives left as extremely rich men. The 1990s bubble followed the usual rules: the markets keep going up, and ultimately the masses can't resist, daring not miss out on a sure thing. But as the ordinary investor bought, egged on by Mr Grubman and his ilk, the big guys pulled out. Thus the remarkable calculation by the Financial Times that 181 leading executives at the 25 largest US companies to declare bankruptcy since 2001 took with them a total pay of $3.2bn (an average of some $16m apiece). So much for putting your money where your mouth is. Not privy to such inside information, lesser mortals saw their savings shrivel. President George Bush is probably right when he says that the vast majority of chief executives were honest. But he's missing the point. A few rotten apples do subtly infect the whole basket. An "everyone's-doing-it-mentality" takes hold, in sound companies as well as dodgy ones. Much today drives the markets down: war drums over Iraq, poor corporate results and fears the US economy could be entering part two of a double-dip recession. But pervading everything is a corrosive loss of public trust in the system. The old guardians, the analysts and the accountants, have been found wanting. And what of the boards of directors, supposed to protect the interests of shareholders but act as rubber stamps for every whim of the top executives? Why, embittered small investors ask, should they play a game rigged from the get-go? Superficially, the system is coping. The US Treasury Secretary, Paul O'Neill, has a point when he says that the precipitate fall of Enron reflects the "genius of capitalism" - that in the end the fraudsters are found out, and the Government will not (or cannot) save them. Would this have happened in Russia or even France, not to mention developing countries where business and government are two words for the same thing, where nepotism and institutionalised corruption are the system? But try telling that to the average Enron worker. Alas, the luminous justice of this free market model does not extend to the Ken Lays, Jeffrey Skillings and Andrew Fastows who cashed their chips for hundreds of millions of dollars, while the rank-and-file employees who were prevented from doing so lost not only their jobs but their retirement savings too. As the receding tide on Wall Street has exposed other corporate shipwrecks, some of those responsible are seen on TV leaving courthouses in handcuffs. Others are facing angry Congressional panels, or that uniquely American hell of lawsuits without end. Driven by public outrage, Mr Bush has signed an unexpectedly tough accountancy reform bill. Top executives for their part now must reimburse stock options and other goodies they received for financial years in which accounts had to be restated. This, it is maintained, will dissuade them from cooking the books to drive up the share price and thus line their own pockets. All in all, some argue that the danger is of over-reaction, that the new measures will get in the way of a normal, and perfectly healthy, market recovery. In that sense, regulation mirrors the tendency of the market themselves to overshoot. Either it is too lax, or too severe. Right now, it may well have veered from the former to the latter. But sooner or later, as surely as day follows night, another great boom will occur. Lack of trust (aka fear) will give way to the belief that easy pickings are there (aka greed). Once again exuberance will become irrational. Such are market bubbles and such is human nature. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 04:00:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:00:38 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8yE-0006LY-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:00:38 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8xw-000291-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:00:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8xH-00028s-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 03:59:39 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8P9vvO27729 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:57:57 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8P9vtN27665 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 12:57:55 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US legitimation crisis: Citigroup Thread-Index: AcJkehabBdB/3NBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US legitimation crisis: Citigroup Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:01:04 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:01:04 +0300 Citigroup in record $215m settlement By Peter Spiegel in Washington and Gary Silverman in New York Financial Times; Sep 20, 2002 Citigroup yesterday agreed to pay $215m to settle charges that a company it acquired two years ago duped millions of high-risk borrowers into taking out overpriced mortgages and credit insurance. The settlement, which combined with a deal reached in a related class action suit will total $240m, is the largest payment ever secured by the Federal Trade Commission in a consumer protection case. Timothy Muris, FTC chairman, said the cash would go to some 2m borrowers who took out loans with the company, Associates First Capital. According to a suit filed by the FTC last year, Associates engaged in a predatory lending scheme that tricked risky "subprime" borrowers into consolidating existing debts into high-rate mortgages and into purchasing overpriced credit insurance. "The commission will not tolerate the fleecing of subprime borrowers through decepting lending practices such as the packing of unwanted insurance on consumers' loans," Mr Muris said. As part of the settlement, which must be approved by a federal judge, Citigroup admitted no wrongdoing. The settlement covers conduct that took place at Associates before it was bought by Citigroup. Robert Willumstad, Citigroup 's president and head of consumer banking, said the company realised Associates' lending practices were questionable when the deal was announced in September 2000. "We understood the issue that the company was facing, particularly with the FTC," Mr Willumstad said. As part of the deal with the FTC, Citigroup agreed that its consumer finance arm, CitiFinancial - which includes the old Associates - would provide the agency with annual reports detailing its credit insurance practices. For three years, the company must retain documents relating to the sale and marketing of loans and credit insurance. Mr Willumstad said the settlement - and other changes Citigroup made in consumer lending - would "enable us to assure our policies reflect best practices". The FTC settlement underscores the risks that Citigroup took in combining with a company that many consumer groups considered a predatory lender. "It's another sign that diversification is a dual-edged sword," said Michael Mayo, Prudential Financial bank analyst. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 04:03:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:03:36 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u915-0006Lp-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:03:35 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u90p-00029i-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:03:19 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u8zv-00029Z-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:02:23 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8PA0fj30778 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:00:41 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8PA0eN30715 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:00:40 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US legitimation crisis: Tyco Thread-Index: AcJkenkNBdB/4tBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US legitimation crisis: Tyco Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:03:49 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:03:49 +0300 Tyco directors knew of loans By Andrew Hill in New York Financial Times; Sep 24, 2002 Tyco said yesterday that certain board members knew about big loans to executives as early as February but only discovered later that the loans had been forgiven, in breach of company policy. Tyco 's shares fell more than 6 per cent yesterday after the New York Times reported that the group's compensation committee had been aware of the loans. Lawyers defending three former top executives - Dennis Kozlowski, former chief executive, Mark Swartz, former chief financial officer, and Mark Belnick, former chief corporate counsel - could use the information to defend them against civil suits from the company, and criminal charges. Those suits make clear that the board did not know about the forgiving of the loans. All three men have pleaded not guilty. In a statement issued yesterday, Tyco indicated board members' gradual discovery of the unauthorised loans was part of a process of investigation that directors set in motion in January. Other directors have already suggested privately that they started their inquiry into Mr Kozlowski's pay and benefits well before the Manhattan district attorney's investigation was revealed in May. This month, Mr Kozlowski and Mr Swartz were charged with stealing more than $170m from Tyco, and raising more than $430m in fraudulent stock sales. Mr Belnick was also indicted for falsifying business records. The possibility that directors knew about the unauthorised loans earlier than previously revealed could cast a shadow over tomorrow's investor conference. ------ Perks that go too far By Michael Skapinker Financial Times; Sep 25, 2002 When the journalist Michela Wrong walked into the abandoned villa of Mobutu Sese Seko, the former dictator of what was then Zaire, she saw what looked like Ming vases, antique furniture and marble floors. "Close up, almost everything proved to be fake," she recalls in her book In the Footsteps of Mr Kurtz . "The vases were modern imitations; they came with price labels still attached. The Romanesque plinths were in moulded plastic, the malachite inlay painted on." Dennis Kozlowski, the deposed chief executive of Tyco International, was more discerning. The $15,000 (=FD9,600) dog umbrella stand he bought for his New York apartment with company money was not, as some assumed, to store his dog's umbrella. It was a French antique in the shape of a three-foot high poodle. "It's not just some stupid dog umbrella stand. It's a very unique, beautiful piece," Wendy Valliere of Seldom Scene Interiors told the Wall Street Journal. The $17,100 "travelling toilette box" that Ms Valliere found for Mr Kozlowski was a 1760s Venetian item, made of painted leather and gilded bronze. The pin cushion, a snip at $445, was another collectible, and the $1,650 leather-bound notebook was for photographs and information about all the antiques, in case anyone wanted to know about them. Unlike Mobutu, Mr Kozlowski was not responsible for any killings or executions. Nor did he reduce a country to ruin. But Tyco 's filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission last week alleged not only that Mr Kozlowski stole millions from the company, but that he employed the strongman's time-tested tactic of implicating dozens of associates to keep them quiet. In September 2000, Tyco says, Mr Kozlowski arranged the payment of $96m in bonuses to 51 employees so that they could pay off loans from the company, along with the tax liability resulting from the forgiveness of those loans. All 51 beneficiaries were asked to sign an agreement that they would forfeit the money if they told anyone other than their lawyers and accountants about it. Mr Kozlowski also concluded a secret agreement with Mark Belnick, Tyco's chief corporate counsel. This tied Mr Belnick's remuneration to Mr Kozlowski's, Tyco said, "thereby giving Mr Belnick an undisclosed incentive to aid and facilitate Mr Kozlowski's improper diversion of company funds". The chief executives of other large companies will disclaim any connection with these alleged misdeeds. Most will have every justification. Unlike Mr Kozlowski, their pay and perquisites were approved by their boards. None of them would have dreamt of donating $1.3m of company money to the Nantucket Conservation Foundation, as Tyco alleges Mr Kozlowski did, so that it could buy 60 acres of property around his estate to prevent any development there. But there is something familiar about Mr Kozlowski's apartments, umbrella stand, travelling toilette box and leather-bound notebook. One of the most extraordinary features of the modern chief executive's remuneration is not the huge amounts of money and share options, but the extras that go with them. That companies should pay chief executives' relocation expenses is understandable, but why should they pay for their apartments? Why can't people who earn that much pay their own rent? And why should chief executives who retire or are sacked continue to have the use of those apartments, together with company-funded country club memberships, cars, drivers, secretaries, laptops and tickets to Wimbledon? A common answer is that these perks are negotiated when chief executives are recruited. Why chief executives demand what they could so easily afford themselves is a complex question that these typically unreflective people would find difficult to answer. One reason they may demand them is that when the financial rewards are so high that they lose all meaning, chief executives look for other, more concrete, proofs that the companies they are joining value them. Another is that the headhunters tell them that everyone else gets these benefits and anyone who doesn't is a sucker. Why do companies agree to such extravagances? Because they are convinced chief executives are hard to find, that the number of people who can run large companies is small, and that analysts, investors and the business press set huge store by their appointment. If the recruitment of a star chief executive is going to add 15 per cent to the share price, why deny shareholders the benefit for the sake of a box at the opera? But as Rakesh Khurana of Harvard Business School points out, the superstar chief executive is a new phenomenon. Until the 1980s, Mr Khurana says in the September issue of the Harvard Business Review, the typical chief executive was an insider who worked his way up the ranks and "was no better known to the general public than his secretary". Falling corporate profits led to disillusionment with these "organisation men". The growth of mutual funds and equity-related pensions led to a demand for corporate leaders who could deliver a better return. Lee Iacocca, who became chief executive of Chrysler in 1979, was the first of the celebrity bosses, but there were many more. They led the US to new heights of innovation and competitiveness, but the signs are everywhere that their time is past. Mr Kozlowski, who denies all charges, will have his day in court. And the rest of us can reflect on what sort of leaders we want. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 04:04:35 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:04:35 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u923-0006M0-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:04:35 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u91o-0002AC-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:04:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u914-0002A3-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:03:34 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8PA1rr31728 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:01:53 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8PA1pN31666 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:01:51 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Germany & the imperialist chain: Deutsche Post Thread-Index: AcJkeqMeBdB/59BmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Germany & the imperialist chain: Deutsche Post Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:04:59 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:04:59 +0300 D Post out to prove its gusto By Uta Harnischfeger Financial Times; Sep 20, 2002 Critics of Deutsche Post, Europe's largest postal operator, tend to chuckle at its new name, Deutsche Post World Net. They argue the former state company does not have the gusto to become a global player in mail, express and logistics services. Now, Deutsche Post is determined to prove them wrong. Next month, it will announce a far-reaching strategy to grow its mail distribution outside Germany, mimicking in part the activities of its biggest rival TPG, the Dutch postal operator. "What really matters are the national letter markets across Europe. Over the next five years, we will be active in all European countries," Klaus Zumwinkel, chief executive, says. Mr Zumwinkel wants to spend at least EUR1bn on co-operations, joint ventures and small acquisitions to establish a foothold in all European letter markets. He is also going to announce precise goals for his efficiency and savings programme, called Star. Its main goal will be to integrate the express and logistics activities Deutsche Post has accumulated during its five-year, EUR5bn ($4.9bn) shopping spree and to make them more profitable. Operating margins in express and logistics are weak at about 1.5-2 per cent - well below TPG's 5 per cent. Deutsche Post is talking to the soon-to-be privatised Danish post office about acquiring a 25 per cent stake. Although relatively small with annual sales of EUR1.5bn, the Danish postal operator offers a crucial gateway to Scandinavia, the Baltics and Russia. "Depending on each country's regulatory environment, we will try to do everything alone - starting with collecting the letters to distributing them - or we will outsource the last mile," says Mr Zumwinkel. Above all, Mr Zumwinkel wants to be present once state-owned postal monopolies loosen their grip and regulatory hurdles come down. Excluding courier services and direct mailing, which are liberalised, most European letter markets are still regulated. "Unless you can offer mail services to all your neighbouring countries by 2009 [when the European letter market is expected to be fully liberalised], you have to stand by and watch others come into your markets," says Horst Manner-Romberg, the head of MRU, a consultancy specialised on logistics and postal services. Besides offering opportunities, growing European competition will also be painful. It will deprive Deutsche Post of its cash-cow, letters, which still generates about 75 per cent of group profits. Express and logistics generate 14 per cent, with financial services accounting for the rest. "In five years, that ratio will be 50-50," Mr Zumwinkel says, referring to mail versus express and logistics sales. In order for that to happen, he must bring together newly acquired express activities such as DHL, a global ground and air express service, and dozens of smaller parcel services with logistics operations such as Danzas, Europe's largest ground forwarder and US-based AEI. Cross-selling is the buzzword. "That's probably Deutsche Post 's biggest challenge: to integrate their express and logistics network and boost these divisions' profitability," says Martin Amann, analyst at Standard & Poor's. Before Deutsche Post can piece together the puzzle, it must adjust the different companies' internal structures and products as well as branding and sales. "We want to become the European equivalent of UPS and FedEx," says Mr Zumwinkel. "We must link a Polish Servisco [parcel service] to a Securicor [UK express and logistics provider] and use DHL's services in between." What sounds easy has turned into a bit of a nightmare. For example, Deutsche Post must integrate 200 different IT systems before it can generate a single customer number. UPS or FedEx customers can use one global customer number regardless of location or order. Mr Zumwinkel is upbeat, in spite of two recent regulatory blows. The European Commission fined Deutsche Post EUR850m for subsidising its lossmaking parcel operations in the mid-1990s and the German regulator has ordered it to lower postage an average 4.7 per cent. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 04:07:35 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:07:35 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u94x-0006MH-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:07:35 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u94i-0002BC-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:07:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u93V-0002Ax-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:06:05 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8PA4Nd03746 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:04:23 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8PA4MN03661 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:04:22 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: China overtakes US for FDI Thread-Index: AcJkev1QBdB/7dBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] China overtakes US for FDI Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:07:31 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:07:31 +0300 China surpasses US as most attractive FDI nation Asia Times, September 25 2002 BEIJING - China has become the most attractive FDI nation, surpassing the United States for the first time, the latest survey result shows. The world-renowned consulting company A T Kearney announced the result from the survey of the foreign direct investment (FDI) Confidence Index on Monday. It indicates that while most nations' power to attract investment is in decline, China's continues to grow. Increasing numbers of investors are expressing interest and confidence in the Chinese market. The index is based on an annual survey of chief executive officers, chief financial officerss and other top executives of Global 1000 companies. Several factors contributed to China's No 1 position, including its populous market, continued economic growth, stable political situation, sound investment environment, World Trade Organization membership and successful bid for the Olympics, said Paul A Laudicina, managing director of global business policy council of A T Kearney. He said China has become the first choice for global manufacturers because they have strong confidence in China's raw materials and skilled personnel. In addition, China's enormous potential in the finance, service, infrastructure, telecommunications, wholesale and retail industries will also attract a great deal of foreign capital. Laudicina said that by 2005, half of all new salary earners above US$10,000 will be Chinese, noting that strong buying power is another factor for FDI flow. The A T Kearney official added that China is not only a recipient of FDI, but also an investor. Last year, the top 12 Chinese state-owned enterprises invested $30 billion in foreign countries, an amount equivalent to the entire investment made by Latin America. Many Chinese small and medium-sized companies also made investments in over 40 countries. In order to maintain its advantage, China needs to strengthen infrastructure construction and promote the balance of local economy, he said.=20 From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 04:09:21 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:09:21 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u96f-0006OE-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:09:21 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u96D-0002Es-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:08:53 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u94c-0002B6-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:07:14 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8PA5WH05166 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:05:32 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8PA5UN05093 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:05:30 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Russia: more looting in prospect Thread-Index: AcJkeyVBBdB/9NBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Russia: more looting in prospect Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:08:39 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:08:39 +0300 When the king dies, the bastards vie By John Helmer Asia Times, September 25 2002 MOSCOW - When Louis XIV was dying in 1715, he had ruled for 72 years, the longest period of absolute one-man rule in the history of Europe to that time, or in the time that followed. So long, in fact, that almost all the lawful heirs to the throne of France were dead - Louis's son, his grandsons and all but one of his great-grandsons. That left his two bastard sons, as well as his bastard daughter, who promptly entered into a conspiracy to put them in line to succeed in the event that Louis, the five-year old great-grandson, died prematurely. To ensure success, they stoked the allegation that Louis XIV's nephew, Philippe, Duke of Orleans, had poisoned the others to capture the succession for himself. As Philippe was lawfully the regent until little Louis could be proclaimed king, the bastards obliged old Louis to add a codicil to his will, putting the troops of the royal palaces and supervision of the boy under the control of the bastards. The codicil was signed as the black spots of gangrene were rising up the king's bedridden legs, just seven days before he died. Since the governments of states also succumb to gangrene, and ambitious bastards are everywhere, it's prudent to ask what the Kremlin wants to do with its powers over the remainder of the state property it plans to privatize before presidential elections in March 2004 - the date when, to make the historical comparison, you might say President Vladimir Putin's regency ends, and his kingship begins; the date by which, you might add, the bastards conceived during president Boris Yeltsin's rule must entrench the codicil that Yeltsin forced Putin to accept, or risk losing everything. There are almost 10,000 state-owned enterprises still in Russia, and the federal government owns stakes in another 4,354, according to figures released by the State Property Ministry. Although, to be legal, privatization must be submitted and authorized by parliament, the government may reorganize state enterprises into shareholding companies - the first and main step towards privatization - by decree. Reorganizing the biggest fuel and energy producers in the economy - Gazprom and Unified Energy Systems (UES) - has already begun, and enactment of legislative approval of the UES plan could be in the bag before 2004. Coal and oil, the other main sources of energy, are almost entirely disposed of already. Unless Putin is very careful, or the Duma is aroused to its first effective revolt since 1998, the regency will end with the transfer of virtually all the power sources of Russia to the bastards. The so-called consolidation of regional telecommunications, and the resale of Svyazinvest, should give them that power also, at the regent's expense. Finally, as the revenues of the state treasury depend on the cash flow from exports, the bastards who are now consolidating their control over metals, diamonds and paper and pulp should be in a position to dictate the state's fiscal policy in no time at all. "Companies that have strong potential for competition must be privatized," is the policy of the government, according to a recent statement by Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov. But is it really? To understand what that means, all you have to do is gauge how much power Kasyanov has vested in Ilya Arturovich Yuzhanov. Ilya who? He is the minister in charge of anti-trust policy. If Yuzhanov is a figurehead, and his ministry paraplegic, then the policy of privatization lacks the only means to achieve its erstwhile goal. The bastards win all. A modest example of how the four largest Russian steelmakers applied to the government recently to solve their winter supply problem will illustrate what is happening. To cut the price and assure ample supplies of steel scrap, which they need for smelting, the steelmakers recently tried to disrupt export sales of scrap by seeking a state ban on shipments out of the Volga River ports. To choke off lower-priced steel from smaller, competing plants, the Big Four also asked Kasyanov to impose high emission fees the smaller plants could not afford; and to tighten the bankruptcy laws so as to prevent them from trading while insolvent. For the time being, the Big Four steelmakers haven't achieved exactly what they want, although they briefly convinced international scrap traders that Rostov port was closed. If the Big Four had won, it might have been impossible to discover the game that had been played, let alone reverse the outcome. That's the problem of power in regencies and weak states - once legitimacy has been lost, there's no telling what the bastards will get away with. The rest is history, an exercise usually written by winners.=20 From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 04:15:43 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:15:43 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9Cp-0006S3-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:15:43 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9CW-0002GU-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:15:24 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9Bc-0002GL-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:14:28 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8PACk712199 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:12:46 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8PACjN12137 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:12:45 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Russia: Yukos oil Thread-Index: AcJkfCizBdB/+9BmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Russia: Yukos oil Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:15:54 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:15:54 +0300 Russia's Billionaire Matchmaker to the West By David Hoffman Washington Post Staff Writer Tuesday, September 24, 2002; Page C01 In the 1980s, Mikhail Khodorkovsky was hanging out in jeans and flannel shirts in a nondescript street-level office in Moscow, where he proved adept at figuring out how to profit from the dying Soviet system. Later, in the roaring 1990s, he snared an oil giant -- and a fortune. Today, at 39, he's the richest man in Russia. But he still favors the subdued, low-key approach: When he walked into the lobby at the Jefferson Hotel for an interview last week, in a simple dark suit and tattersall dress shirt, with briefcase but without bodyguards, he went largely unnoticed. Khodorkovsky recently disclosed he holds about $7 billion worth of shares in Russia's oil giant, Yukos, of which he is chief executive. Khodorkovsky eschewed the public role of the Russian tycoons who flourished as power brokers under former president Boris Yeltsin and who became known as oligarchs. Yet, of all the oligarchs in those years -- young men who got their start during perestroika and thrived on the uncertainty and chaos of the Soviet meltdown and Russian rebirth -- Khodorkovsky came out on top. He became the wealthiest of the group, and now has set his sights still higher. His ambition, which brought him to Washington last week, is to become a global oil baron, not only supplying the West a stable flow of crude but also establishing his own respectability. He came to Washington to launch a new foundation, Open Russia, designed to build ties between his country and the West. "For hundreds of years, Russia has tried to make a choice between East and West," Khodorkovsky said. "Throughout these hundreds of years, there were a few points where Russia could make that concrete choice. Right now we are at another such potential turning point. We don't want Russia to miss this chance -- we want it to be part of Western society." In the late 1990s, Khodorkovsky earned a reputation as a corporate tough-guy, waging a bitter fight against lenders and minority investors. The times were tough, too, characterized by secrecy, violence, threats and corruption. Two years ago Khodorkovsky set out to remake himself into a good corporate citizen. He paid dividends, increased spending on new equipment and pledged to improve his corporate governance practices. The shift proved incredibly lucrative. The price of Yukos stock soared 1,377 percent over two years. Since Khodorkovsky held 36 percent of the company, his own wealth zoomed too. Then, global oil prices climbed toward $30 a barrel, and Yukos was bulging with cash. Khodorkovsky has endowed Open Russia with about $16 million. At a dinner Wednesday night, he was hosted by one of the leading scholars of Russian history in the United States, Librarian of Congress James H. Billington, who called Khodorkovsky a "visionary." "It's not often," Billington said, "you get someone who has done well and wants to do good." Khodorkovsky's new foundation has named former secretary of state Henry Kissinger and Lord Rothschild, the British philanthropist, to its board. Khodorkovsky's oil company had earlier donated $1 million to an Open World exchange program -- inspired and championed by Billington -- that brings young Russian leaders to the United States on short-term visits. At the Library of Congress, under the painted silk ceiling panels of the Members Room of the Thomas Jefferson Building, Khodorkovsky mingled with a crowd of businessmen, Russia specialists, members of Congress and government officials. Khodorkovsky's makeover has been "a big success," said Rothschild, surveying the meeting of new Russian money and the Washington establishment. "It's been enormously to his advantage to change." Khodorkovsky has also sponsored a permanent, rotating exhibition of Russian artworks at Somerset House, a museum in London. Billington published his classic work, "The Icon and the Axe," an interpretive history of Russian thought and culture, in 1966. The Soviet Union was just beginning a long period of stagnation. Khodorkovsky was 3 years old when the book came out. He was among the first generation to go into business when it became possible to do so in the Gorbachev years. Almost all the successful oligarchs were very young, and one of the puzzles of the new Russia's first decade is why the older factory directors did not become the wealthiest tycoons. "They didn't change," Khodorkovsky said. "We are ready to change. . . . Maybe this is a feature of our age, because things first began changing in the country when we were very young. We lived in a country that was undergoing change, and we were changing along with it." Khodorkovsky said he wants to expose Russians to the West so they won't give up on the efforts of the last decade to build a market democracy, a task still unfinished. Within Russia, Khodorkovsky has targeted his philanthropy at education, taking up a role similar to that first assumed by financier George Soros with his Open Society Institute in the years after the Soviet collapse. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also vowed to cement ties to the West, although critics say that at home he has tried to roll back the institutions of democracy and civil society, such as a free press. In casting his lot with the United States, Putin also faces resistance from the military and security agencies, which still harbor great suspicions about the West. "We want to see a healthy civil society develop in Russia, and not just in abstract terms," Khodorkovsky said. "We fully realize that life is easier if such a thing exists. . . . For us this is a sober business decision." Sober business and a steely determination may be good explanations for Khodorkovsky's survival. Two years ago, Putin said there would be no more oligarchs "as a class." Two of the most prominent tycoons of the Yeltsin era, Boris Berezovsky and Vladimir Gusinsky, were forced out of the country under pressure from the Kremlin. Putin made a quiet deal with the remaining oligarchs: They could keep their winnings from the rapacious 1990s, but they had to keep their noses out of politics -- and out of his Kremlin. Khodorkovsky accepted those terms, and thrived. He has used his mountain of cash for a string of acquisitions abroad, and now has his eye set on expanding further into other energy fields, including natural gas and electricity. He favors speedy entry of Russia into the World Trade Organization. He's an apostle of shipping more Russian oil to the United States, despite huge and costly transport problems, to offset supplies from the Middle East. Nonetheless, nasty corporate spats are still sometimes settled in Moscow by masked men carrying guns. A top executive for another oil company was kidnapped this month. Disputes still persist over property rights, although Putin has pushed through many new laws. Recently there were news leaks of a possible Kremlin plan to somehow confiscate mineral rights granted to private companies. Khodorkovsky said he visited the Kremlin to inquire, and was assured it wouldn't happen. "I think property in Russia is sufficiently well protected," he said, drawing out the word carefully and slowly. "More than individual rights. I think our problem lies with the creation of a civil society. Concerning property rights there is a consensus. It may not be a consensus among the population at large, but certainly among the elite it is a consensus." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 04:17:34 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:17:34 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9Ec-0006SH-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:17:34 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9EO-0002H5-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:17:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9DE-0002Gw-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:16:08 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8PAEQk13690 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:14:26 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8PAEON13628 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:14:24 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US legitimation crisis: Dynegy Thread-Index: AcJkfGOZBdCAAdBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US legitimation crisis: Dynegy Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:17:33 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:17:33 +0300 SEC Fines Dynegy $3 Million in Probe of Deals By Peter Behr Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday, September 25, 2002; Page E03 Dynegy Inc. was fined $3 million by the Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday in a settlement of SEC charges that it defrauded investors by overstating its cash position by $300 million last year and by inflating its earnings through sham "round-trip" energy trades. The SEC enforcement action against the Houston energy company parallels ongoing federal investigations of energy-trading companies, including Enron Corp., whose businesses surged at the end of the 1990s with the spread of electricity deregulation. Enron's energy trades are being investigated by a federal grand jury in San Francisco. A Senate subcommittee has accused Enron of similar deceptive statements about its cash flow. The $300 million overstatement of Dynegy's cash flow, according to the SEC, resulted from a complex energy deal called Project Alpha. In its public financial statements, Dynegy initially accounted for the cash as the front end of an multiyear energy trade. "In reality, the $300 million was a loan masquerading as operating cash flow," the SEC said yesterday. "As a result, Dynegy investors were deceived," said Harold F. Degenhardt, head of the SEC's Fort Worth office. Dynegy also received a $79 million tax benefit by claiming large financial losses on the initial energy trades in the Alpha transaction, the SEC said. The company, which settled the SEC charges without admitting or denying the agency's findings, overstated its cash flow from operations by 37 percent and its net income by 12 percent last year, the SEC said. Project Alpha's funds came from Citigroup, which also arranged similar disputed energy transactions with Enron that should have been declared as loans, according to a Senate subcommittee. Degenhardt said the SEC continues to investigate individuals and "third parties" involved in the Dynegy transactions. Dynegy previously announced that it will restate earnings for 2001 and 2002 after correcting the accounting treatment of Project Alpha and the round-trip trades. Energy trading has all but disappeared since Enron's bankruptcy filing last year as investors have fled from Dynegy and other Enron competitors. Dynegy shares closed at $1.20 yesterday, up 3 cents but far below their 52-week high of $46.94, reached last November during the company's failed attempt to acquire Enron. The stock losses and trading investigations swept out key Dynegy leaders. Founder and chief executive Charles L. Watson resigned in May, followed the next month by Chief Financial Officer Robert D. Doty Jr. SEC Enforcement Director Stephen M. Cutler said the $3 million fine was based on Dynegy's failure to fully cooperate with the agency in its initial investigation. The SEC indicated the fine could have been more had the company not begun assisting the inquiry. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 04:20:35 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:20:35 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9HX-0006SZ-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:20:35 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9HH-0002Hm-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:20:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9Gq-0002Hd-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:19:53 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8PAIBJ18281 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:18:11 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8PAI9N18208 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:18:09 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US legitimation crisis: asbestosis Thread-Index: AcJkfOmHBdCAB9BmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US legitimation crisis: asbestosis Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:21:17 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:21:17 +0300 For Asbestos Victims, Compensation Remains Elusive By Albert B. Crenshaw Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday, September 25, 2002; Page E01 Last September, Dale Dahlke, a 53-year-old electrician and cost estimator at the Puget Sound Naval Shipyard, began to feel short of breath playing in his usual recreation-league basketball games. Always athletic and rarely sick, he thought he might have a cold. Eight months later he was dead. The "cold" turned out to be an array of asbestos-related ailments, including mesothelioma -- a form of cancer that emerges long after its victim has been exposed to asbestos but kills with gruesome speed. In building Navy ships, Dahlke spent hours in cramped spaces where asbestos had been used to make the ships fireproof. Before he died, he sued 11 companies that he thought were responsible for his asbestos exposure. Now it appears that his widow will receive relatively little in compensation. For nearly 15 years after the courts, industry and victims' attorneys reached an agreement on how to compensate the tens of thousands of people exposed to asbestos through their jobs, the compensation problem seems to be getting worse, not better. In recent years, dozens of companies, including all 11 that Dahlke sued, have filed for bankruptcy protection in the face of a flood of new asbestos cases -- though almost all of them are still operating. Hundreds of other corporations are defendants, too, as tens of thousands of new claimants, many of whom show no symptoms of illness, sue because they fear they may get sick. The result is the product-liability case that will not end. And with so many cases and so many bankruptcies, victims are having trouble collecting for their injuries. The bankruptcy filing provides some protection from existing lawsuit judgments, and many companies are turning to trusts to settle claims. Thus, lawyers say, Dahlke's widow, Charisse, can expect only about 15 percent of the $1 million or so that her husband could have received had he filed suit before the bankruptcies. As the number of cases has grown and major defendants have filed for bankruptcy, aggressive trial lawyers have sued companies far removed from manufacturing asbestos. The potential liability for U.S. business is estimated at more than $200 billion. That's comparable to what the savings and loan debacle of the 1980s cost the government. And insurers, who may pay one-third of the total, say it will be more costly than all their 9/11 terrorism claims. The nation's court system is clogged as a consequence. A giant consolidated case involving about two dozen defendant companies and 5,000 claimants went to trial yesterday in West Virginia, after some 200 companies reached settlements following a failed attempt last week to get the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene. Another case involving 40 defendant companies and 1,300 claimants is scheduled for trial next month in Virginia after the state Supreme Court refused to block it. Congress long rejected calls for a legislative solution. But the Senate Judiciary Committee has scheduled a hearing today that some hope will call attention to the dimensions of the problem. "The last best hope here is the U.S. Congress," said Steven Kazan, an Oakland, Calif.-based lawyer who represents clients with mesothelioma, a cancer found mostly in people exposed to asbestos. Kazan and some other trial lawyers have split with their colleagues in the plaintiffs bar and sided with business groups out of fear the pot of available money will be too small to help their clients. Michael Baroody, executive vice president of the National Association of Manufacturers, said that it needed to be understood that victims include not only those injured by asbestos but also "workers who find their jobs lost" as their employers fail and people investing for retirement who see "the value of those investments diluted if not evaporated by asbestos liability." The pending claims are "an anchor" weighing down the manufacturing sector of the economy and slowing the overall recovery, Baroody said. Proponents of change would like to see some provision made for claimants who have evidence of asbestos exposure, but little apparent injury. One proposal is for courts to create registries or "inactive dockets" through which claims could be preserved but not addressed until the people actually become sick. But Fred Baron, of the Dallas law firm of Baron & Budd, who has been filing asbestos cases since 1973 and who opposes congressional action, noted that repeated efforts in Congress to limit or federalize asbestos claims have failed. Baron said the corporations are "allied with a few lawyers who represent a few cases." "Their complaint is not with the tort system, their complaint is with the bankruptcy situation," he said. "When a company goes into Chapter 11 for reorganization, the amount of money to pay claims gets consumed in large part by low-end claims. "The bottom line is, asbestos companies don't want to pay claims. Lawyers for mesothelioma victims want them to get more of the pot. Those two groups have kind of banded together." The explosion of asbestos claims in the past few years is a shock to many experts, who had calculated that most victims of the 40-year-old occupational disease would be dead or compensated by now. By some estimates, 30 million tons of asbestos -- silicate minerals resistant to heat and fire -- were used in industrial sites, homes, schools, shipyards and commercial buildings in the United States during the past century. Because of its heat-resistant qualities, asbestos was used in thousands of consumer, industrial, maritime, automotive, scientific and building products. Though it remains legal, the use of asbestos has fallen drastically. The first company to file for bankruptcy protection from asbestos claims was Johns-Manville in 1982. The total is now more than 60, many in the past few years. Among them are such well-known names as Owens Corning and W.R. Grace. There are currently more than 200,000 asbestos-injury cases pending in state and federal courts. Some 60,000 of these were filed in 2000 alone, up from an average of 20,000 new claims annually in the early 1990s. The Manville Trust, a mechanism set up in the 1980s to pay claims against Johns-Manville, has seen the number of claims against the company almost double in 2000 compared with 1999, then almost double again last year, according to David Austern, president of the Claims Resolution Management Corp., which administers payments from the trust. The trust has recorded 600,000 claims so far, and the total could eventually hit as many as 2.7 million, he said. Johns-Manville's dominance in the asbestos industry was so complete that almost everyone with an asbestos injury has a claim against it. So its numbers are regarded as representative of the claims universe. At the same time, the mix of claims has been shifting. The number of mesothelioma cancer cases has remained steady at about 2,000 cases a year, with cases of asbestosis and other non-malignant lung ailments taking a greater share. The ratio of non-malignant to malignant injury claims has risen from 88 to 12 in 1999 to 95 to 5 this year, Austern said. "The entire increase in total claims filing is attributable to non-malignant claims," he said. Just the specter of asbestos is enough to send a company's stock tumbling. Last month, the shares of papermaker MeadWestvaco Corp. plunged in one day after the firm announced it faced some 500 asbestos injury lawsuits involving about 6,000 plaintiffs. Halliburton Co., which was run by Vice President Cheney, saw its stock price drop dramatically last December when it announced it faced asbestos liabilities. While the search for a solution continues, so does the parade of big court cases. Corporations complain that they do not get fair treatment in giant cases such as the one starting in West Virginia because jurors cannot possibly sort out who is to blame for what. Such cases allow those who are not sick to "leverage" the claims of the truly sick to inflate their own claims, the companies argue. They also complain about "forum shopping" by trial lawyers seeking friendly juries. Juries in Mississippi, for example, have returned 20 verdicts of $9 million or more since 1995, and at least seven were for more than $100 million. Of 403 plaintiffs involved in litigation against GAF Corp., more than half were from Texas. Jefferson County, Miss., is sometimes called a "magic jurisdiction" for plaintiffs. Its population is about 9,700, but 21,000 plaintiffs filed asbestos claims there between 1995 and 2000. Claimants and their attorneys reply that consolidated trials are the most efficient way to deal with what one court called the "elephantine mass of asbestos litigation." And they say that dividing the cases up is a tactic designed to make lawsuits more expensive and harder for plaintiffs to pursue. Outside the courtroom, the Manville trust is paying about 5 cents on the dollar for claims filed against it, and Austern said no other trust set up by a bankrupt company has paid more than 20 percent. He noted that injured individuals often file claims against more than one trust. The Manville trust earlier this month reached agreement with its plaintiffs on a new formula that "raises significantly the amount of money that will be paid the mesothelioma victims, and commensurately reduces the amount paid" to those with non-malignant ailments. It also raises the amount paid to lung cancer victims and requires that "greater and more extensive medical documentation must be filed with each claim." Many of the lowest-level claims will be barred entirely, he said. "This distribution process is probably going to be a template for many other future bankruptcies," Austern said. "We have always been the coal mine canary for the way these things work." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 04:22:39 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:22:39 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9JX-0006Sn-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:22:39 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9JF-0002KO-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:22:21 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9I8-0002IA-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:21:12 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8PAJU520166 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:19:30 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8PAJTN20092 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:19:29 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US economy: poverty rising Thread-Index: AcJkfRjfBdCADNBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US economy: poverty rising Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:22:37 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:22:37 +0300 Number of People Living in Poverty Increases in U.S. By ROBERT PEAR New York Times, September 25 2002 WASHINGTON, Sept. 24 - The proportion of Americans living in poverty rose significantly last year, increasing for the first time in eight years, the Census Bureau reported today. At the same time, the bureau said that the income of middle-class households fell for the first time since the last recession ended, in 1991. The Census Bureau's annual report on income and poverty provided stark evidence that the weakening economy had begun to affect large segments of the population, regardless of race, region or class. Daniel H. Weinberg, chief of income and poverty statistics at the Census Bureau, said the recession that began in March 2001 had reduced the earnings of millions of Americans. The report also suggested that the gap between rich and poor continued to grow. All regions except the Northeast experienced a decline in household income, the bureau reported. For blacks, it was the first significant decline in two decades; non-Hispanic whites saw a slight decline. Even the incomes of Asians and Pacific Islanders, a group that achieved high levels of prosperity in the 1990's, went down significantly last year. "The decline was widespread," Mr. Weinberg said. The Census Bureau said the number of poor Americans rose last year to 32.9 million, an increase of 1.3 million, while the proportion living in poverty rose to 11.7 percent, from 11.3 percent in 2000. Median household income fell to $42,228 in 2001, a decline of $934 or 2.2 percent from the prior year. The number of households with income above the median is the same as the number below it. A family of four was classified as poor if it had cash income less than $18,104 last year. The official poverty levels, updated each year to reflect changes in the Consumer Price Index, were $14,128 for a family of three, $11,569 for a married couple and $9,039 for an individual. The bureau's report is likely to provide fodder for the Congressional campaigns. The White House said the increase in poverty resulted, in part, from an economic slowdown that began under President Bill Clinton. But Democrats said the data showed the failure of President Bush's economic policies and his tendency to neglect the economy. Mr. Bush said today that he remained optimistic. "When you combine the productivity of the American people with low interest rates and low inflation, those are the ingredients for growth," Mr. Bush said. But Senator Paul S. Sarbanes, Democrat of Maryland, said the administration should "start paying attention to the economic situation." Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, the House Democratic leader, expressed amazement that Mr. Bush, after being in office for 20 months, was still blaming his predecessor. Rudolph G. Penner, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office, said: "The increase in poverty is most certainly a result of the recession. The slow recovery, the slow rate of growth, has been very disappointing. Whether that has a political impact this fall depends on whether the election hinges on national conditions or focuses on local issues." Although the poverty rate, the proportion of the population living in poverty, rose four-tenths of a percentage point last year, it was still lower than in most of the last two decades. The poverty rate exceeded 12 percent every year from 1980 to 1998. As the economy grew from 1993 to 2000, the rate plunged, to 11.3 percent from 15.1 percent, and the poverty rolls were reduced by 7.7 million people, to 31.6 million. The latest recession showed an unusual pattern, seeming to raise poverty rates among whites more than among minority groups, Mr. Weinberg said. Increases in poverty last year were concentrated in the suburbs, in the South and among non-Hispanic whites, the Census Bureau said. Indeed, non-Hispanic whites were the only racial group for whom the poverty rate showed a significant increase, to 7.8 percent in 2001, from 7.4 percent in 2000. Poverty rates for minority groups were once much higher. But last year, the bureau said, they remained "at historic lows" for blacks (22.7 percent), Hispanics (21.4 percent) and Asian Americans (10.2 percent). With its usual caution, the Census Bureau said the data did not conclusively show a year-to-year increase in income inequality. But the numbers showed a clear trend in that direction over the last 15 years. The most affluent fifth of the population received half of all household income last year, up from 45 percent in 1985. The poorest fifth received 3.5 percent of total household income, down from 4 percent in 1985. Average income for the top 5 percent of households rose by $1,000 last year, to $260,464, but the average declined or stayed about the same for most other income brackets. Robert Greenstein, executive director of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal research institute, said, "The census data show that income inequality either set a record in 2001 or tied for the highest level on record." Median earnings increased 3.5 percent for women last year, but did not change for men, so women gained relative to men. "The real median earnings of women age 15 and older who worked full time year-round increased for the fifth consecutive year, rising to $29,215 - a 3.5 percent increase between 2000 and 2001," Mr. Weinberg said. The comparable figure for men was unchanged at $38,275. So the female-to-male earnings ratio reached a high of 0.76. The previous high was 0.74, first recorded in 1996. Democrats said the data supported their contention that Congress should increase spending on social welfare programs, resisted by many Republicans. But Wade F. Horn, the administration's welfare director, said the number of poor children was much lower than in 1996, when Congress overhauled the welfare law to impose strict work requirements. Of the 32.9 million poor people in the United States last year, 11.7 million were under 18, and 3.4 million were 65 or older. Poverty rates for children, 16.3 percent, and the elderly, 10.1 percent, were virtually unchanged from 2000. But the poverty rate for people 18 to 64 rose a half percentage point, to 10.1 percent. Median household income for blacks fell last year by $1,025, or 3.4 percent, to $29,470. Median income of Hispanics, at $33,565, was virtually unchanged. But household income fell by 1.3 percent for non-Hispanic whites, to $46,305, and by 6.4 percent for Asian Americans, to $53,635. The Census Bureau report also included these findings: =B6There were 6.8 million poor families last year, up from 6.4 million in 2000. The poverty rate for families rose to 9.2 percent, from a 26-year low of 8.7 percent in 2000. =B6The rate in the South rose to 13.5 percent, from 12.8 percent in 2000. The South is home to more than 40 percent of all the nation's poor, and it accounted for more than half of the national increase in the number of poor last year. =B6The poverty rate for the suburbs rose to 8.2 percent last year, from 7.8 percent in 2000. The number of poor people in suburban areas rose by 700,000, to 12 million. There was virtually no change in the rates in central cities (16.5 percent) and outside metropolitan areas (14.2 percent). The bureau said the number of "severely poor" rose to 13.4 million last year, from 12.6 million in 2000. People are considered to be severely poor if their family incomes are less than half of the official poverty level. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 04:23:45 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:23:45 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9Kb-0006Ui-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:23:45 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9KD-0002OX-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:23:21 -0600 Received: from maynard.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.243]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9Jt-0002LX-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:23:01 -0600 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by maynard.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 17u9Jr-0000Dg-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 06:23:00 -0400 Message-ID: <046f01c2647b$f904edc0$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: References: <5.1.0.14.2.20020925072517.00abda38@pop.freeserve.net> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Subject: [A-List] Anyone seen this? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 06:11:50 -0400 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 06:11:50 -0400 The claim that this is groundbreaking seems a bit much. "State capitalism" indeed! Stan Class Theory and History: Capitalism and Communism in the USSR Stephen A. Resnick and Richard D. Wolff Class Theory and History takes an ambitious and ground-breaking look at the entire history of the Soviet Union and presents a new kind of analysis of the history of the USSR: examining its birth, evolution, and death in class terms. Utilizing the class analytics they have developed over the last three decades, Resnick and Wolff formulate the most fully developed economic theory of communism now available, and use that theory to answer the question: did communism ever exist in the USSR and if so, where, why and for how long? Their initial, and controversial, conclusion: Soviet industry never established a communist class structure. This conclusion then leads to the hypothesis that the twentieth century's defining struggle was not between communism in the USSR and capitalism in the United States, but rather between their respective state and private capitalisms. Combining class theory and Soviet history, the book yields key lessons for the future of private capitalism, state capitalism and communism. "A very ambitious and interesting book on a very important topic." -Howard Sherman, author of Reinventing Marxism "Using a version of Marx's theory of class to explain the rise and fall of the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union as evidence for the validity of this theory, Resnick and Wolff succeed in providing us with an original and fascinating account of both. Whether one agrees or disagrees with their results, no future work on either of these important subjects will be able to ignore the sheer creative verve and intellectual rigor with which they lay out their arguments. Very highly recommended." -Bertell Ollman, editor of Market Socialism: The Debate Among Socialists "A stunning achievement! Resnick and Wolff have extended their path breaking work in Knowledge and Class to a full-fledged class analysis of the rise and fall of the Soviet Union. Building on the clearest analysis of class in the Marxian tradition, Resnick and Wolff provide a comprehensive analysis of the core contradictions in pre-Soviet Russia and the Soviet Union. This is a work that all those concerned with the Soviet experience, the nature of class, and the possibilities of fundamental social change will have to contend with." -Victor D. Lippit, editor of Radical Political Economy: Explorations in Alternative Economic Analysis "Class Theory and History both follows in the best Marxian tradition's footsteps and develops new important insights. Building upon a notion of class whose pivot is the production and distribution of surplus, the authors offer a stimulating and original interpretation of the USSR's birth, development, and fall. This is class analysis at its best, a work which, deserves the widest circulation." -Guglielmo Carchedi author of For Another Europe: A Class Analysis of European Economic Integration Table of Contents: Introduction PART I. COMMUNISM 1.A General Class Theory 2.The Many Forms of Communism PART II. STATE CAPITALISM 3.A Class Theory of State Capitalism 4. Debates over State Capitalism PART III. THE RISE AND FALL OF THE USSR 5.Class Structures and Tensions Before 1917 6.Revolution, War Communism, and the Aftermath 7. Revolution, Class, and the Soviet Household 8. The New Economic Policies of the 1920s 9.The Transformations of the 1930s 10.Class Contradictions and the Collapse References HB ISBN: 0-415-93317-X $ 85.00 [Can. $128.00] PB ISN: 0-415-93318-8 $ 24.95 [Can. $37.95] Published by ROUTLEDGE 29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE To order toll free (credit cards accepted): U.S. customers call: 1-800-634-7064 FAX: 1-800-248-4724 Canada customers call: 877-226-2237 FAX 416-299-7531 See also: www.routledge-ny.com "People say, how can I help in this war on terror? How can I fight evil? You can do so by mentoring a child, by going into a shut-in's house and say I love you." -George W. Bush, September 19, 2002 http://www.softskull.com/cgi-bin/SoftCart.100.exe/store/goff/hideous_dream. html?E+scstore From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 04:31:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:31:38 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9SE-0006Vj-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:31:38 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9Rw-0002PT-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:31:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17u9RM-0002PK-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 04:30:44 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8PAT2G30968 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:29:02 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8PAT1N30906 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:29:01 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message Subject: RE: [A-List] Anyone seen this? MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: [A-List] Anyone seen this? Thread-Index: AcJkfd00YeoWwWVdTiKhTx2aRSHIfgAAB2EQ From: "Keaney Michael" To: Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:32:10 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 13:32:10 +0300 The claim that this is groundbreaking seems a bit much. "State capitalism" indeed! Stan ------ Yes it was forwarded earlier to the list. After a brief flutter interest died, although personally I think that there is space here for a serious consideration of this work, including why, at this particular time, Resnick and Wolff and others of their ilk should be choosing to spend so much time and effort flogging this decomposed horse. Michael From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 06:34:13 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 06:34:13 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uBMp-0007PA-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 06:34:11 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uBMT-0003Dt-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 06:33:49 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uBKz-0003DV-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 06:32:17 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8PCUYT30638 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 15:30:34 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8PCUWN30519 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 15:30:32 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Majordomo file: list 'guardian-weekly' file 'gw-international/2002.9.29/200209260602' Thread-Index: AcJkjz+cWkWw5le7QV2gW8hF8wrvqAAAC/qQ From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] China/US tensions: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 15:33:41 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 15:33:41 +0300 Beijing stumped for an answer to Washington's 'new imperialism' Inside Asia John Gittings John Gittings It is an awful prospect for President Jiang Zemin - far worse than a mass strike by laid-off workers, violent peasant protests at taxation, or any domestic upset that might disturb the run-up to the Communist party congress on November 16. There is Jiang next month, heading for George Bush's ranch at Crawford, Texas, to enjoy a "finger-licking good" barbecue. The Chinese leader has polished his quotations from the Gettysburg Address and even plans to sing a song. Then just as the Air China No 1 jet sets course across the Pacific, the news flash arrives: Mr Bush has declared "regime change" on Iraq; US planes are bombing Baghdad and special forces are already dropping on selected targets. What is Jiang to do - carry on to the US but call off the ranch visit, or head directly south for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) meeting in Mexico? More difficult still, what is he to say - denounce US unilateralism, call weakly on both sides to show restraint, or . . . just say nothing? It may not come to such a perplexing pass. This month, when Bush appeared to put the matter in the hands of the UN security council, Beijing breathed a sigh of relief. China was even more relieved when Iraq invited the inspectors back in. The Chinese foreign minister, Tang Jiaxuan, said that was what the world had been waiting for. Perhaps the Iraqi question will somehow be resolved after all without war. Now, as Bush hardens his line again and seems prepared to stop the inspectors if need be and go it alone, the question has returned. Last week the Chinese prime minister, Zhu Rongji - who happened to be in Vienna, where the International Atomic Energy Agency, home of the inspectors, is based - spelt out the clearest Chinese position so far. Iraq's "sovereignty, territorial integrity and rational concerns about security should be respected", he said. It was crucial for the inspectors to go back as soon as possible to establish whether Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. "Without irrefutable evidence there should be no use of force, and any major action in this regard should be based on UN authorisation," Mr Zhu stressed. On the face of it, this commits China to oppose unequivocally any US resort to unilateral war unless President Saddam Hussein misplays his hand very badly by prevaricating with the inspectors. Silence, on this reading, would not be an option for Beijing if it came to the worst. However, Zhu did not explicitly oppose the new tougher resolution on Iraq that Bush is now pushing: at a press conference he refused to speculate on the subject. Such a resolution, if passed, could then provide a legitimate mandate, acceptable to Beijing, for the use of force. Twelve years ago, when the US last made war on Iraq, Beijing took this course of action by abstaining on the UN resolution that authorised the the use of force. Beijing's reward was further moves by Washington to normalise relations post-Tiananmen Square. The then foreign minister, Qian Qichen, came to Washington and stood by the president's side at the White House. As James Mann describes it in About Face, his study of the US-China relationship, the US helped China on its "long march to respectability". So what is the price today of Chinese abstention at the security council and acquiescence in a US war - or is it a deal too far? One view is that Jiang has no alternative, having already committed himself to a foreign strategy which - in spite of such upsets as the Belgrade embassy bombing and the spy-plane crisis - is firmly based upon building a long-term partnership with the US. His strategy, on this reading, has been reinforced post-September 11 by a shared interest in the "war against terror". Indeed China has already received a down-payment from the US for its support, in Washington's agreement to list the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement (Etim) as a terrorist organisation. The small number of terrorist incidents in China's northwest region of Xinjiang have been lumped together and blamed on Etim, which is said to have links with al-Qaida. Despite US denials, this gives Beijing a green light to crack down without risk of serious criticism as and when it chooses in Xinjiang. Uighur exiles are dismayed at the US decision, which seems to buy a highly dubious Chinese case - though Washington analysts insist their conclusion was reached independently. China's real aim, argues the exile spokesman Turdi Ghoja, is to isolate the voices of those Uighurs abroad who were beginning to gain US sympathy. It is only two years since Beijing denied there was a separatist movement in Xinjiang and blamed the "200 acts of violence" now attributed to Etim on a variety of groups and individuals. Now the Chinese seek eagerly to "share their secret with the world". More cynical observers say that the US would have to do more to buy Chinese neutrality - such as backing off the warmer line that the Bush administration has adopted towards the Taiwanese government. These hard choices, both for the US and for China, will be avoided if the Iraq crisis does not come to war or if, as already suggested, Saddam gives Bush a pretext for action that also satisfies Beijing. Yet the underlying problem for Beijing remains: how should Chinese foreign policy be structured in the new unipolar world? In the words of one well-known Chinese analyst, Professor Jin Canrong of the People's University, it is a world where it now appears that "the US is seeking absolute domination within the international arena". How far should Beijing accommodate the "new imperialists"? Will this strengthen or weaken China's own claim to be a world power? And how will Chinese public opinion (no longer to be ignored) react? For the most part the media have so far avoided any in-depth analysis of US motives and aims. It seems better, as far as possible, not to mention the war - but the questions will not go away. The Guardian Weekly 26-9-2002, page 6 From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 07:52:59 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 07:52:59 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uCb3-0000L3-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 07:52:57 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uCac-0003pc-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 07:52:30 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uCXy-0003ny-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 07:49:46 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8PDm0W16805 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 16:48:00 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8PDlwN16743 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 16:47:58 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US imperialism: Anatol Lieven analysis Thread-Index: AcJkmjmKBdCATNBmEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Anatol Lieven analysis Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 16:51:07 +0300 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 16:51:07 +0300 The Push for War Anatol Lieven London Review of Books Vol 24, No 19 3 October 2002 The most surprising thing about the Bush Administration's plan to invade Iraq is not that it is destructive of international order; or wicked, when we consider the role the US (and Britain) have played, and continue to play, in the Middle East; or opposed by the great majority of the international community; or seemingly contrary to some of the basic needs of the war against terrorism. It is all of these things, but they are of no great concern to the hardline nationalists in the Administration. This group has suffered at least a temporary check as a result of the British insistence on UN involvement, and Saddam Hussein's agreement to weapons inspections. They are, however, still determined on war - and their power within the Administration and in the US security policy world means that they are very likely to get their way. Even the Washington Post has joined the radical rightist media in supporting war. The most surprising thing about the push for war is that it is so profoundly reckless. If I had to put money on it, I'd say that the odds on quick success in destroying the Iraqi regime may be as high as 5/1 or more, given US military superiority, the vile nature of Saddam Hussein's rule, the unreliability of Baghdad's missiles, and the deep divisions in the Arab world. But at first sight, the longer-term gains for the US look pretty limited, whereas the consequences of failure would be catastrophic. A general Middle Eastern conflagration and the collapse of more pro-Western Arab states would lose us the war against terrorism, doom untold thousands of Western civilians to death in coming decades, and plunge the world economy into depression. These risks are not only to American (and British) lives and interests, but to the political future of the Administration. If the war goes badly wrong, it will be more generally excoriated than any within living memory, and its members will be finished politically - finished for good. If no other fear moved these people, you'd have thought this one would. This war plan is not like the intervention in Vietnam, which at the start was supported by a consensus of both political parties, the Pentagon, the security establishment and the media. It is true that today - for reasons to which I shall return - the Democrats are mostly sitting on the fence; but a large part of the old Republican security establishment has denounced the idea and the Pentagon has made its deep unhappiness very clear. The Administration has therefore been warned of the dangers. And while a new attack by al-Qaida during the war would help consolidate anti-Muslim American nationalism, the Administration would also be widely accused of having neglected the hunt for the perpetrators of 11 September in order to pursue an irrelevant vendetta. As far as the Israeli lobby is concerned, a disaster in the Middle East might be the one thing that would at last bring a discussion of its calamitous role into the open in the US. With the exception of Donald Rumsfeld, who conveniently did his military service in the gap between the Korean and Vietnam Wars, neither Bush nor any of the other prime movers of this war served in the military. Of course, General Colin Powell served in Vietnam, but he is well known to be extremely dubious about attacking Iraq. All the others did everything possible to avoid service. If the war goes wrong, the 'chicken hawk' charge will be used against them with devastating political effect. Vietnam veterans, both Democrat and Republican, have already started to raise this issue, stirred up in part by the insulting language used by Richard Perle and his school about the caution of the professional military. As a recent letter to the Washington Post put it, 'the men described as chicken hawks avoided military service during the Vietnam War while supporting that war politically. They are not accused of lacking experience and judgment compared to military men. They are accused of hypocrisy and cowardice.' Given the political risks of failure - to themselves, above all - why are they doing this? And, more broadly, what has bred this reckless spirit? To understand the Administration's motivation, it is necessary to appreciate the breathtaking scope of the domestic and global ambitions which the dominant neo-conservative nationalists hope to further by means of war, and which go way beyond their publicly stated goals. There are of course different groups within this camp: some are more favourable to Israel, others less hostile to China; not all would support the most radical aspects of the programme. However, the basic and generally agreed plan is unilateral world domination through absolute military superiority, and this has been consistently advocated and worked on by the group of intellectuals close to Dick Cheney and Richard Perle since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. This basic goal is shared by Colin Powell and the rest of the security establishment. It was, after all, Powell who, as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declared in 1992 that the US requires sufficient power 'to deter any challenger from ever dreaming of challenging us on the world stage'. However, the idea of pre-emptive defence, now official doctrine, takes this a leap further, much further than Powell would wish to go. In principle, it can be used to justify the destruction of any other state if it even seems that that state might in future be able to challenge the US. When these ideas were first aired by Paul Wolfowitz and others after the end of the Cold War, they met with general criticism, even from conservatives. Today, thanks to the ascendancy of the radical nationalists in the Administration and the effect of the 11 September attacks on the American psyche, they have a major influence on US policy. To understand the genesis of this extraordinary ambition, it is also necessary to grasp the moral, cultural and intellectual world of American nationalism in which it has taken shape. This nationalism existed long before last September, but it has been inflamed by those attacks and, equally dangerously, it has become even more entwined with the nationalism of the Israeli Right. To take the geopolitical goals first. As with National Missile Defense, the publicly expressed motive for war with Iraq functions mainly as a tool to gain the necessary public support for an operation the real goals of which are far wider. The indifference of the US public to serious discussion of foreign or security affairs, and the negligence and ideological rigidity of the US media and policy community make searching debate on such issues extremely difficult, and allow such manipulation to succeed. The immediate goal is indeed to eliminate Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. There is little real fear, however, that Saddam Hussein will give those weapons to terrorists to use against the United States - though a more genuine fear that he might conceivably do so in the case of Israel. Nor is there any serious prospect that he would use them himself in an unprovoked attack on the US or Israel, because immediate annihilation would follow. The banal propaganda portrayal of Saddam as a crazed and suicidal dictator plays well on the American street, but I don't believe that it is a view shared by the Administration. Rather, their intention is partly to retain an absolute certainty of being able to defend the Gulf against an Iraqi attack, but, more important, to retain for the US and Israel a free hand for intervention in the Middle East as a whole. >From the point of view of Israel, the Israeli lobby and their representatives in the Administration, the apparent benefits of such a free hand are clear enough. For the group around Cheney, the single most important consideration is guaranteed and unrestricted access to cheap oil, controlled as far as possible at its source. To destroy and occupy the existing Iraqi state and dominate the region militarily would remove even the present limited threat from Opec, greatly reduce the chance of a new oil shock, and eliminate the need to woo and invest in Russia as an alternative source of energy. It would also critically undermine the steps already taken towards the development of alternative sources of energy. So far, these have been pitifully few. All the same, 11 September brought new strength to the security arguments for reducing dependence on imported oil, and as alternative technologies develop, they could become a real threat to the oil lobby - which, like the Israeli lobby, is deeply intertwined with the Bush Administration. War with Iraq can therefore be seen as a satisfactory outcome for both lobbies. Much more important for the future of mankind, it is also part of what is in essence a strategy to use American military force to permit the continued offloading onto the rest of the world of the ecological costs of the existing US economy - without the need for any short-term sacrifices on the part of US capitalism, the US political elite or US voters. The same goes for the war against al-Qaida and its allies: the plan for the destruction of the existing Iraqi regime is related to this struggle, but not as it has been presented publicly. Links between Baghdad and al-Qaida are unproven and inherently improbable: what the Administration hopes is that by crushing another middle-sized state at minimal military cost, all the other states in the Muslim world will be terrified into full co-operation in tracking down and handing over suspected terrorists, and into forsaking the Palestinian cause. Iran for its part can either be frightened into abandoning both its nuclear programme and its support for the Palestinians, or see its nuclear facilities destroyed by bombardment. The idea, in other words, is to scare these states not only into helping with the hunt for al-Qaida, but into capitulating to the US and, more important, Israeli agendas in the Middle East. This was brought out in the notorious paper on Saudi Arabia presented by Laurent Murawiec of the Rand Corporation to Richard Perle's Defense Policy Board. Murawiec advocated sending the Saudis an ultimatum demanding not only that their police force co-operate fully with US authorities, but also the suppression of public criticism of the US and Israel within Saudi Arabia - something that would be impossible for any Arab state. Despite this, the demand for the suppression of anti-Israeli publications, broadcasts and activities has been widely echoed in the US media. 'The road to Middle East peace lies through Baghdad' is a line that's peddled by the Bush Administration and the Israeli lobby. It is just possible that some members of the Administration really believe that by destroying Israel's most powerful remaining enemy they will gain such credit with Israelis and the Israeli lobby that they will be able to press compromises on Israel. But this is certainly not what public statements by members of the Administration - let alone those of its Likud allies in Israel - suggest. Rumsfeld recently described the Jewish settlements as legitimate products of Israeli military victory; the Republican Majority Leader in the House, Dick Armey (a sceptic as regards war with Iraq), has advocated the ethnic cleansing ('transfer') of the Palestinians across the Jordan; and in 1996 Richard Perle and Douglas Feith (now a senior official at the Pentagon) advised Binyamin Netanyahu to abandon the Oslo Peace Process and return to military repression of the Palestinians. It's far more probable, therefore, that most members of the Bush and Sharon Administrations hope that the crushing of Iraq will so demoralise the Palestinians, and so reduce wider Arab support for them, that it will be possible to force them to accept a Bantustan settlement bearing no resemblance to independent statehood and bringing with it no possibility of economic growth and prosperity. How intelligent men can believe that this will work, given the history of the past fifty years, is astonishing. After all, the Israelis have defeated Arab states five times with no diminution of Palestinian nationalism or Arab sympathy for it. But the dominant groups in the present Administrations in both Washington and Jerusalem are 'realists' to the core, which, as so often, means that they take an extremely unreal view of the rest of the world, and are insensitive to the point of autism when it comes to the character and motivations of others. They are obsessed by power, by the division of the world into friends and enemies (and often, into their own country and the rest of the world) and by the belief that any demonstration of 'weakness' immediately leads to more radical approaches by the 'enemy'. Sharon and his supporters don't doubt that it was the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon - rather than the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories - which led to the latest Intifada. The 'offensive realists' in Washington are convinced that it was Reagan's harsh stance and acceleration of the arms race against the Soviet Union which brought about that state's collapse. And both are convinced that the continued existence of Saddam Hussein's regime of itself suggests dangerous US weakness and cowardice, thus emboldening enemies of the US and Israel across the Middle East and beyond. >From the point of view of the Arab-Israeli conflict, war with Iraq also has some of the character of a Flucht nach vorn - an 'escape forwards' - on the part of the US Administration. On the one hand, it has become clear that the conflict is integrally linked to everything else that happens in the Middle East, and therefore cannot simply be ignored, as the Bush Administration tried to do during its first year in office. On the other hand, even those members of the American political elite who have some understanding of the situation and a concern for justice are terrified of confronting Israel and the Israeli lobby in the ways which would be necessary to bring any chance of peace. When the US demands 'democracy' in the Palestinian territories before it will re-engage in the peace process it is in part, and fairly cynically, trying to get out of this trap. However, when it comes to the new rhetoric of 'democratising' the Arab world as a whole, the agenda is much broader and more worrying; and because the rhetoric is attractive to many liberals we must examine this agenda very carefully. Belief in the spread of democracy through American power isn't usually consciously insincere. On the contrary, it is inseparable from American national messianism and the wider 'American creed'. However, this same messianism has also proved immensely useful in destroying or crippling rivals of the United States, the Soviet Union being the outstanding example. The planned war against Iraq is not after all intended only to remove Saddam Hussein, but to destroy the structure of the Sunni-dominated Arab nationalist Iraqi state as it has existed since that country's inception. The 'democracy' which replaces it will presumably resemble that of Afghanistan - a ramshackle coalition of ethnic groups and warlords, utterly dependent on US military power and utterly subservient to US (and Israeli) wishes. Similarly, if after Saddam's regime is destroyed, Saudi Arabia fails to bow to US wishes and is attacked in its turn, then - to judge by the thoughts circulating in Washington think-tanks - the goal would be not just to remove the Saudi regime and eliminate Wahabism as a state ideology: it would be to destroy and partition the Saudi state. The Gulf oilfields would be put under US military occupation, and the region run by some client emir; Mecca and the Hejaz might well be returned to the Hashemite dynasty of Jordan, its rulers before the conquest by Ibn Saud in 1924; or, to put it differently, the British imperial programme of 1919 would be resurrected (though, if the Hashemites have any sense, they would reject what would without question be a long-term death sentence). Beyond lies China. When the Bush Administration came to power, its major security focus was not the Middle East. There, its initial policy was benign neglect ('benign' at any rate in the case of Israel). The greatest fears of right-wing nationalist gurus such as Robert Kagan concerned the future emergence of China as a superpower rival - fears lent a certain credibility by China's sheer size and the growth of its economy. As declared in the famous strategy document drawn up by Paul Wolfowitz in the last year of the first Bush Administration - and effectively proclaimed official policy by Bush Jr in his West Point speech in June - the guiding purpose of US strategy after the end of the Cold War should be to prevent the emergence of any 'peer competitor'anywhere in the world. What radical US nationalists have in mind is either to 'contain' China by overwhelming military force and the creation of a ring of American allies; or, in the case of the real radicals, to destroy the Chinese Communist state as the Soviet Union was destroyed. As with the Soviet Union, this would presumably involve breaking up China by 'liberating' Tibet and other areas, and under the guise of 'democracy', crippling the central Chinese Administration and its capacity to develop either its economy or its Army. To judge by the right-wing nationalist media in the US, this hostility to China has survived 11 September, although in a mitigated form. If the US can demonstrate overwhelming military superiority in the Middle East, there will certainly be groups in the Republican Party who will be emboldened to push for a much tougher line on China. Above all, of course, they support formal independence for Taiwan. Another US military victory will certainly help to persuade these groups that for the moment the US has nothing to fear from the Chinese Navy or Air Force, and that in the event of a Taiwanese declaration of independence, the island can be defended with relative impunity. Meanwhile, a drastic humiliation of China over Taiwan might well be seen as a key stepping-stone to the overthrow of Communism and the crippling of the Chinese state system. At present these are only long-term ambitions - or dreams. They are certainly not shared even by a majority of the Administration, and are unlikely to be implemented in any systematic way. On the other hand, it's worth bearing in mind that the dominant groups in this Administration have now openly abandoned the underlying strategy and philosophy of the Clinton Administration, which was to integrate the other major states of the world in a rule-based liberal capitalist order, thereby reducing the threat of rivalry between them. This tendency is not dead. In fact, it is strongly represented by Colin Powell, and by lesser figures such as Richard Haass. But their more powerful nationalist rivals are in the meantime publicly committed to preventing by every possible means the emergence of any serious rival or combination of rivals to the US, anywhere in the world, and to opposing not just any rival would-be world hegemon, but even the ability of other states to play the role of great power within their own regions. Under the guise of National Missile Defense, the Administration - or elements within it - even dreams of extending US military hegemony beyond the bounds of the Earth itself (an ambition clearly indicated in the official paper on Defense Planning Guidance for the 2004-09 Fiscal Years , issued this year by Rumsfeld's office). And while this web of ambition is megalomaniac, it is not simply fantasy. Given America's overwhelming superiority, it might well work for decades until a mixture of terrorism and the unbearable social, political and environmental costs of US economic domination put paid to the present order of the world. As things stand, the American people would never knowingly support such a programme - nor for that matter would the US military. Even after 11 September, this is not by historical standards a militarist country; and whatever the increasingly open imperialism of the nationalist think-tank class, neither the military nor the mass of the population wishes to see itself as imperialist. The fear of casualties and of long-term overseas military entanglements remains intense. And all opinion polls suggest that the majority of the American public, insofar as it considers these issues at all, is far more interested than this Administration in co-operation with allies. Besides, if the US economy continues to stagnate or falls sharply, the Republicans will most probably not even be in power after 2004. As more companies collapse, the Administration's links to corrupt business oligarchies will become more and more controversial. Further economic decline combined with bloated military spending would sooner or later bring on the full consequences of the stripping of the public finances caused by this Administration's military spending and its tax cuts for the rich. At that point, the financial basis of Social Security would come into question, and the Republican vote among the 'middle classes' could shatter. It is only to a minimal degree within the power of any US administration to stimulate economic growth. And even if growth resumes, the transformation of the economy is almost certain to continue. This will mean the incomes of the 'middle classes' (which in American terminology includes the working proletariat) will continue to decline and the gap between them and the plutocracy will continue to increase. High military spending can correct this trend to some extent, but because of the changed nature of weaponry, to a much lesser extent than was the case in the 19th and most of the 20th centuries. All other things being equal, this should result in a considerable shift of the electorate to the left. But all other things are not equal. Two strategies in particular would give the Republicans the chance not only of winning in 2004, but of repeating Roosevelt's success for the Democrats in the 1930s and becoming the natural party of government for the foreseeable future. The first is the classic modern strategy of an endangered right-wing oligarchy, which is to divert mass discontent into nationalism. The second, which is specifically American, is to take the Jewish vote away from its traditional home in the Democratic Party, by demonstrating categorical Republican commitment not just to Israel's defence but to its regional ambitions. This is connected both to the rightward shift in Israel, and to the increasingly close links between the Republicans and Likud, through figures like Perle and Feith. It marks a radical change from the old Republican Party of Eisenhower, Nixon and Bush p=E8re, which was far more independent of Israel than the Democrats. Of key importance here has been the growing alliance between the Christian Right - closely linked to the old White South - and the Israeli lobby, or at least its hardline Likud elements. When this alliance began to take shape some years back, it seemed a most improbable combination. After all, the Christian Right and the White South were once havens of anti-semitic conspiracy theories. On the other hand, the Old Testament aspects of fundamentalist Christianity had created certain sympathies for Judaism and Israel from as far back as the US's 17th-century origins. For Christian fundamentalists today the influence of millenarian thought is equally important in shaping support for Israel: the existence of the Israeli state is seen as a necessary prelude to the arrival of the Antichrist, the Apocalypse and the rule of Christ and His Saints. But above all, perhaps, this coming together of the fundamentalist Right and hardline Zionism is natural, because they share many hatreds. The Christian Right has always hated the United Nations, partly on straight nationalist grounds, but also because of bizarre fears of world government by the Antichrist. They have hated Europeans on religious grounds as decadent atheists, on class grounds as associates of the hated 'East Coast elites', and on nationalist grounds as critics of unconstrained American power. Both sides share an instinctive love of military force. Both see themselves as historical victims. This may seem strange in the case of the American Rightists, but it isn't if one considers both the White South's history of defeat, and the Christian Right's sense since the 1960s of defeat and embattlement by the forces of irreligion and cultural change. Finally, and most dangerously, both are conditioned to see themselves as defenders of 'civilisation' against 'savages' - a distinction always perceived on the Christian Right as in the main racially defined. It is no longer possible in America to speak openly in these terms of American blacks, Asians and Latinos - but since 11 September at least, it has been entirely possible to do so about Arabs and Muslims. Even in the 2000 elections, the Republicans were able to take a large part of the white working-class vote away from Gore by appealing to cultural populism - and especially to those opposed to gun control and environmental protection. Despite the real class identity and cultural interests of the Republican elite, they seem able to convince many workers that they are natural allies against the culturally alien and supercilious 'East Coast elites' represented as supporting Gore. These populist values are closely linked to the traditional values of hardline nationalism. They are what the historian Walter Russell Mead and others have called 'Jacksonian' values, after President Andrew Jackson's populist nationalism of the 1830s. As Mead has indicated, 11 September has immensely increased the value of this line to Republicans. If on top of this the Republicans can permanently woo the Jewish vote away from the Democrats - a process which purely class interests would suggest and which has been progressing slowly but steadily since Reagan's day - there is a good chance of their crippling the Democrats for a generation or more. Deprived of much of their financial support and their intellectual backbone, the Democrats could be reduced to a coalition of the declining unionised white working class, blacks and Latinos. And not only do these groups on the whole dislike and distrust each other, but the more the Democrats are seen as minority dominated, the more whites will tend to flee to the Republicans. Already, the anti-semitism of some black leaders in the Democratic Party has contributed to driving many Jews towards the Republicans; and thanks to their allegiance to Israel, the liberal Jewish intelligentsia has moved a long way from their previous internationalism. This shift is highly visible in previously liberal and relatively internationalist journals such as the New Republic and Atlantic Monthly, and maybe even in the New Yorker . Indeed, it is no exaggeration to say that as a result the internationalist position in the Democratic Party and the US as a whole has been eviscerated. The Democrats are well aware of this threat to their electorate. The Party as a whole has always been strongly committed to Israel. On Iraq and the war against terrorism, its approach seems to be to avoid at all costs seeming 'unpatriotic'. If they can avoid being hammered by the Republicans on the charge of 'weakness' and lack of patriotism, then they can still hope to win the 2004 elections on the basis of economic discontent. The consequence, however, is that the Party has become largely invisible in the debate about Iraq; the Democrats are merely increasing their reputation for passionless feebleness; whereas the Republican nationalists are full of passionate intensity - the passion which in November 2000 helped them pressure the courts over the Florida vote and in effect steal the election. It is this passion which gives the nationalist Right so much of its strength; and in setting out the hopes and plans of the groupings which dominate the Bush Administration, I don't want to give the impression that everything is simply a matter of conscious and cynical manipulation in their own narrow interests. Schematic approaches of this kind have bedevilled all too much of the reporting of nationalism and national conflict. This is odd and depressing, because in recent decades the historiography of pre-1914 German nationalism - to take only one example - has seen an approach based on ideas of class manipulation give way to an infinitely more subtle analysis which emphasises the role of socio-economic and cultural change, unconscious identifications, and interpenetrating political influences from above and below. To understand the radical nationalist Right in the US, and the dominant forces in the Bush Administration, it is necessary first of all to understand their absolute and absolutely sincere identification of themselves with the United States, to the point where the presence of any other group in government is seen as a usurpation, as profoundly and inherently illegitimate and 'un-American'. As far as the hardline elements of the US security establishment and military industrial complex are concerned, they are the product of the Cold War, and were shaped by that struggle and the paranoia and fanaticism it bred. In typical fashion for security elites, they also became conditioned over the decades to see themselves not just as tougher, braver, wiser and more knowledgeable than their ignorant, innocent compatriots, but as the only force standing between their country and destruction. The Cold War led to the creation of governmental, economic and intellectual structures in the US which require for their survival a belief in the existence of powerful national enemies - not just terrorists, but enemy states. As a result, in their analyses and propaganda they instinctively generate the necessary image of an enemy. Once again, however, it would be unwise to see this as a conscious process. For the Cold War also continued, fostered and legitimised a very old discourse of nationalist hatred in the US, ostensibly directed against the Communists and their allies but usually with a very strong colouring of ethnic chauvinism. On the other hand, the roots of the hysteria of the Right go far beyond nationalism and national security. Their pathological hatred for the Clinton Administration cannot adequately be explained in terms of national security or even in rational political or economic terms, for after a very brief period of semi-radicalism (almost entirely limited to the failed attempt at health reform), Clinton devoted himself in a Blairite way to adopting large parts of the Republican socio-economic agenda. Rather, Clinton, his wife, his personal style, his personal background and some of his closest followers were all seen as culturally and therefore nationally alien, mainly because associated with the counter-culture of the 1960s and 1970s. The modern incarnation of this spirit can indeed be seen above all as a reaction to the double defeat of the Right in the Vietnam War - a defeat which, they may hope, victory in Iraq and a new wave of conservative nationalism at home could cancel out once and for all. In Vietnam, unprecedented military defeat coincided with the appearance of a modern culture which traditionalist Americans found alien, immoral and hateful beyond description. As was widely remarked at the time of Newt Gingrich's attempted 'Republican Revolution' of the mid-1990s, one way of looking at the hardline Republicans - especially from the Religious Right - is to see them as motivated by a classical nationalist desire for a return to a Golden Age, in their case the pre-Vietnam days of the 1950s. None of these fantasies is characteristic of the American people as a whole. But the intense solipsism of that people, its general ignorance of the world beyond America's shores, coupled with the effects of 11 September, have left tremendous political spaces in which groups possessed by the fantasies and ambitions sketched out here can seek their objectives. Or to put it another way: the great majority of the American people are not nearly as militarist, imperialist or aggressive as their German equivalents in 1914; but most German people in 1914 would at least have been able to find France on a map. The younger intelligentsia meanwhile has also been stripped of any real knowledge of the outside world by academic neglect of history and regional studies in favour of disciplines which are often no more than a crass projection of American assumptions and prejudices (Rational Choice Theory is the worst example). This has reduced still further their capacity for serious analysis of their own country and its actions. Together with the defection of its strongest internationalist elements, this leaves the intelligentsia vulnerable to the appeal of nationalist messianism dressed up in the supposedly benevolent clothing of 'democratisation'. Twice now in the past decade, the overwhelming military and economic dominance of the US has given it the chance to lead the rest of the world by example and consensus. It could have adopted (and to a very limited degree under Clinton did adopt) a strategy in which this dominance would be softened and legitimised by economic and ecological generosity and responsibility, by geopolitical restraint, and by 'a decent respect to the opinion of mankind', as the US Declaration of Independence has it. The first occasion was the collapse of the Soviet superpower enemy and of Communism as an ideology. The second was the threat displayed by al-Qaida. Both chances have been lost - the first in part, the second it seems conclusively. What we see now is the tragedy of a great country, with noble impulses, successful institutions, magnificent historical achievements and immense energies, which has become a menace to itself and to mankind. Anatol Lieven, a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC, is the author of Chechnya and Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 08:38:59 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 08:38:59 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uDJb-0000jB-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 08:38:59 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uDJ3-0004FT-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 08:38:26 -0600 Received: from pes.comsats.net.pk ([210.56.15.10]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uDID-0004Ct-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 08:37:34 -0600 Received: from pes (210-56-15-220.Dialup.Peshawar.comsats.net.pk [210.56.15.220] (may be forged)) by pes.comsats.net.pk (8.11.6+Sun/8.11.6) with SMTP id g8PFYxh16493 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 20:34:59 +0500 (PKT) Message-ID: <013801c264a1$2c586ce0$dc0f38d2@pes.comsats.net.pk> From: "Tariq" To: References: Subject: Re: [A-List] New Labour watch: David Miliband MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 19:12:21 +0500 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 19:12:21 +0500 Dear Keaney Michael, Presently I am required to design a residential school that aims at generating leaders for the community in all walks of life. If David Miliband has the vision as Catherine MacLeod suggests I would like to have a direct discourse with the British School Minister. Would you please let me have his e-mail address. Thanks and regards. Tariq Peshawar ---------------------- "Keaney Michael" writes: New Labour watch: David Miliband Does this mean he studied under "Rudi" Dornbusch? That might explain a few things. Why education reform is at the heart of Labour's agenda CATHERINE MacLEOD finds out what drives the English schools minister The Herald, 20 September 2002 DAVID Miliband is only 37, but has already been tipped as a potential successor to Tony Blair - although no-one knows better than he what a poisoned chalice that can be. Even his critics credit him with "tremendous intellect, a wide and serious grasp of political issues, and the ability to go far". The journey north is a mark of his confidence and style. Having spent seven years heading Tony Blair's policy unit he is well acquainted with the pitfalls lying in wait for a visiting London politician. But Mr Miliband knows more about Scotland than he lets on. Not only did he keep abreast of the devolution process when he was in Downing Street, he is well connected within the Scottish Labour party. Personal experience, as well as an impressive grasp of the history, education policy, and politics, underpin Mr Miliband's determination to revolutionise English education. The MP for the working class constituency of South Shields in the north-east of England since last year's general election, he and his younger brother Ed, who has recently moved on from the Treasury, where he was Gordon Brown's special adviser, were the sons of Ralph Miliband, one of the most influential socialist thinkers of the last century. Mr Miliband is well educated himself - from a north London comprehensive, where he became a life-long Arsenal supporter, he took a first in politics, philosophy, and economics at Oxford, and later a masters degree at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. With an almost evangelical commitment, he talks about creating a system fit for the educational needs of children from all sorts of backgrounds. Convinced that the system particularly fails the two-thirds of children from the bottom and middle social rungs, he has ambitious plans to create a different philosophy of state education. "I'm absolutely convinced that children of South Shields have got the brains to go to university, to get good jobs, to develop themselves to become not just productive members of the economy but of the community. But they haven't been given the opportunities." "I went to a comprehensive school and the great triumph was that all sorts of kids were there, 64 languages and all the rest of it. That was a huge step forward from the 11-plus, but I think all the attention was paid to who came in at the school gate. "It wasn't about what went on in the classroom. You see, to me, comprehensive education means all-embracing, serving all talents, all aptitudes, and if you don't focus on what goes on in the classroom, you can't do that." Mr Miliband does not underestimate the scale of the challenge but he believes education reform is at the heart of domestic and international progress. "What is interesting now, and why I'm passionate about this job, is that where people talk about how to change the world they talk about education." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 08:39:13 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 08:39:13 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uDJp-0000jU-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 08:39:13 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uDJZ-0004Fo-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 08:38:57 -0600 Received: from pes.comsats.net.pk ([210.56.15.10]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uDIC-0004Cs-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 08:37:34 -0600 Received: from pes (210-56-15-220.Dialup.Peshawar.comsats.net.pk [210.56.15.220] (may be forged)) by pes.comsats.net.pk (8.11.6+Sun/8.11.6) with SMTP id g8PFYrh16474 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 20:34:53 +0500 (PKT) Message-ID: <013601c264a1$292b21c0$dc0f38d2@pes.comsats.net.pk> From: "Tariq" To: References: Subject: Re: [A-List] UK pensions crisis: work till you drop MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 18:50:33 +0500 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 18:50:33 +0500 Dear keaney Michael, I often enjoy reading your posts. This one about UK govt's plan to raise retirement age to 70 is rather interesting. In Pakistan, in order to enhance prospects for employment they often bring the retiring age down from 60. However, that for judges was raised to 65 and now to 68. Some say, it was the present regime's ploy to bribe the judges into acquisence. People in the West keep chasing an apparition called standard of life, in which spend their entire life. Will they halt to enjoy life at all? Tariq From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 11:12:17 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 11:12:17 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uFhw-0001dB-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 11:12:16 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uFcG-0004zF-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 11:06:24 -0600 Received: from mta5.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.241]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uFbB-0004yy-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 11:05:17 -0600 Received: from sabri ([66.124.235.137]) by mta5.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H3000KXM7GSXW@mta5.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 10:05:16 -0700 (PDT) From: Sabri Oncu To: PEN-L , ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] The real foe is Middle Eastern tyranny Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 10:07:52 -0700 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 10:07:52 -0700 Michael Ledeen of the American Enterprise Institute argues the US should also be seeking change in Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia. The real foe is Middle Eastern tyranny By Michael Ledeen Financial Times, September 23 2002 The debate over the coming war is a classic case of focusing so narrowly on a single tree that the forest vanishes from view. Our leaders are so deeply engaged in the case against Saddam Hussein that they have lost sight of the broader terrorist threat. And this, in turn, threatens their strategy for the war itself. The terror network - from al-Qaeda to Hizbollah, from Islamic Jihad to Hamas and various Palestinian Liberation Organisation groups - is as potent as it is because of the support given by four tyrannical regimes, which I term the "terror masters": Iran, Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia. Without the support of those regimes, the terrorists would be gravely weakened and would become easy prey. The Middle East phase of the war against terrorism must focus on these regimes and, while each country requires a different strategy, our most lethal weapon will be the people who suffer under the four tyrants. Ever since President George W. Bush's "axis of evil" speech, the terror masters have been organising a common front against the US and its allies. Wherever we strike first, we are almost certain to find all the others retaliating. It is dangerous to believe we shall have the luxury of dealing with them one by one; we shall find ourselves in a regional conflict as soon as we move. Of the four terror states, the most important is Iran, which invented modern Islamic terrorism at the time of the Khomeini revolution of 1979. Iran created, trained, protected, funded and supported the world's most deadly terrorist group - Hizbollah - and has been a pillar of support for the others, including al-Qaeda. But terrorism is virtually the only success of the Islamic Republic; it has ruined the country and earned the hatred of the overwhelming majority of Iranians. In what must be something of a record, even for a failed tyranny, the regime recently conducted a poll that showed 90 per cent of Iranians strongly critical of the regime. Hardly a week goes by without violent demonstrations in a big city, ironically driven by the disillusioned former supporters of the "reformist" President Mohammad Khatami, who has proved powerless. The regime, knowing it can no longer rely on its military and paramilitary forces to suppress the demonstrations, is constantly importing new thugs, restructuring the armed forces and shifting commanders from region to region. Iran is in a similar condition to Yugoslavia in the last days of Slobodan Milosevic, Poland and Czechoslovakia in the last days of the Soviet empire, and the Philippines in the last days of Ferdinand Marcos. One does not need a military assault to bring down the regime; it should be sufficient to support the Iranian people themselves, who want to be free of the mullahcracy that has oppressed them. As in these other cases, the US could simply provide opposition groups with funding and technical support and encourage them through broadcasts. It would be very difficult for the Syrians, Saudis and Iraqis to fight the Iranian people on behalf of a failed regime. By contrast, if we begin with a military attack on Iraq, it will be much easier for the terrorists and armed forces at the disposal of the Syrian, Saudi and Iranian regimes to find ways to kill US and British soldiers on Iraqi soil and elsewhere. The fall of the radical Islamic Republic would eliminate the terrorists' greatest source of support and the subsequent joy of the Iranian people would cut the heart out of Islamic fundamentalism, demonstrating to an entire generation of Muslims that such regimes fail utterly, whether in their (Iranian) Shiite or (Afghan) Sunni versions. And the successful overthrow of the Tehran regime would inspire great public support for similar revolutions in Baghdad and Damascus, which is precisely what we want. We shall have far greater success if we arrive as credible liberators than if we come as invaders; and it would be well to show the Iraqis - who have twice been betrayed by feckless US presidents in the past decade - that this time we know what we are doing. As for Saudi Arabia, while there are certainly pro-western members of the royal family, this fossilised remnant of an outmoded medieval culture must stop funding the global organisation of radical mosques and religious schools in which the next generation of terrorists is being brainwashed and recruited. And the royal family must cease to support terrorist activities against their nominal friends in the west. It will probably be easier to convince them of the colossal error of their ways once we have shown our power and determination elsewhere in the region; and indeed they already seem to understand that they need to co-operate to escape a certain doom. It sounds an enormously ambitious mission; but there is no escape, for the terror masters are bound together in a common enterprise by their shared hatred of us. It is a mission altogether worthy of the world's lone superpower. As President Ronald Reagan once remarked, the US is too great a country to settle for small dreams. The writer is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute andauthor of 'The War Against the Terror Masters' From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 11:20:47 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 11:20:47 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uFq9-0001ft-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 11:20:45 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uFpj-00052z-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 11:20:19 -0600 Received: from mta5.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.241]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uFoU-00052m-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 11:19:02 -0600 Received: from sabri ([66.124.235.137]) by mta5.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H3000K8Z83QYC@mta5.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 10:19:02 -0700 (PDT) From: Sabri Oncu To: ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] US state: ruling class split Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 10:21:38 -0700 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 10:21:38 -0700 >From a speech made by the former Vice-President of > the United States to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco http://www.commonwealthclub.org/ The above is the website of the said club. I came across their site about a year ago, while I was reading about the recent history of the US-Japan relationship. Can be a useful source of information for researchers interested in studying the US ruling class split, as well as many other topics. Sabri From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Wed Sep 25 11:24:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 11:24:38 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uFtu-0001i4-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 11:24:38 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uFtc-00058D-00; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 11:24:20 -0600 Received: from mta5.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.241]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uFtC-000584-00 for ; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 11:23:54 -0600 Received: from sabri ([66.124.235.137]) by mta5.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H3000KLX8BTZF@mta5.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Wed, 25 Sep 2002 10:23:54 -0700 (PDT) From: Sabri Oncu To: PEN-L , ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Turkey warns of action if Kurds form state Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 10:26:29 -0700 Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2002 10:26:29 -0700 Turkey warns of action if Kurds form state By David Gardner and Quentin Peel in London FT.com site; Sep 24, 2002 Turkey will not stand by if a Kurdish state emerges in the north of Iraq as a result of US or international military action to topple Saddam Hussein, a senior Turkish official said on Tuesday. Ankara fears any assault on the Baghdad regime could lead to Iraq fragmenting, and the conversion of the de facto Kurdish entity just south of the Turkish border with Iraq into a state that would encourage Turkey's Kurds to relaunch their campaign for autonomy. "We will not tolerate in any way the formation of a new state in northern Iraq," Sukru Sina Gurel, Turkish foreign minister and deputy prime minister told the FT in an interview in London. Mr Gurel said he had spelt this out in meetings last week with Colin Powell, US secretary of state, and vice-president Dick Cheney. "Of course the Americans understand our position," he said. Turkey's anxiety about what might happen if the fall of the Baghdad dictatorship led to Iraqi partition into a Kurdish north, Sunni Muslim centre and Shi'ite Muslim south has grown along with the likelihood of a war across its borders. Last month Sabahattin Cakmakoglu, Turkey's defence minister, threatened to put troops into northern Iraq to forestall the Kurds consolidating power there. Mr Gurel said on Tuesday he was making "our position as a government clear" - after what Mr Cakmakoglu said. The foreign minister would not be drawn on whether Turkey could accept the formalisation of Kurdish autonomy within Iraq. http://search.ft.com/search/article.html?id=020924005045&query=tu rkey&vsc_appId=totalSearch&state=Form From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 02:34:15 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 02:34:15 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uU6B-0005X3-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 02:34:15 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uU0K-0001W5-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 02:28:12 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uTya-0001Vv-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 02:26:24 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q8Oab29499 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:24:36 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q8OZN29420 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:24:35 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: [A-List] The real foe is Middle Eastern tyranny Thread-Index: AcJktlPLXhVnvU+PQdeg1/AUXHnOpgAaYi0g From: "Keaney Michael" To: Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: regime change Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:27:49 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:27:49 +0300 Sabri writes: Michael Ledeen of the American Enterprise Institute argues the US should also be seeking change in Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia. ----- The AEI and its representatives in the present US administration (Rumsfeld, Cheney, Bolton, Perle, Wolfowitz, etc.) are well acquainted with the concept of regime change. Since most of these guys began "public life" as far back as the Nixon administration they have had long enough to refine the tools of "regime change" from overt invasion (Grenada) to backing fifth columnists (Nicaragua, Venezuela) to "making the economy scream" (Chile and Britain, among others). While the very public snubbing of German defence minister Peter Struck by Donald Rumsfeld received wide notice in the press, much less noticed was a comment by Struck quoted in last Friday's Financial Times, which is a remarkable thing for any leading politician of a leading Western liberal democracy to say: "Peter Struck, defence minister, complained on election night of Washington's "massive involvement" in the closing stages of the campaign." See http://search.ft.com/search/article.html?id=3D020923005332&query=3DGerman= +defence+minister&vsc_appId=3DtotalSearch&offset=3D0&resultsToShow=3D10&v= sc_subjectConcept=3D&vsc_companyConcept=3D&state=3DMore&vsc_publicationGr= oups=3DFTFT&searchCat=3D0 This is hardly news to anyone even remotely following elections in Western Europe over the last 50 years, but for someone in Struck's position to be so candid is interesting, to say the least. I imagine that Blair and Schr=F6der will have lots to discuss about accelerating EU integration, including dismantling the stability and growth pact and making it as easy as possible for Britain to enter the eurozone in order that the Policy Network triumvirate of Blair-Schr=F6der-Persson and their assorted allies elsewhere get to work forging an EU counterweight to the US. The US administration is already at work sabotaging this, of course, in its brazen courting of Chirac, whose ego needs no encouragement. Michael Keaney From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:00:20 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:00:20 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUVQ-0005eQ-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:00:20 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUUH-0001en-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 02:59:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUT5-0001ee-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 02:57:55 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q8u8p28731 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:56:08 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q8u6N28669 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:56:06 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US imperialism: Ivory Coast Thread-Index: AcJlOqFKBpkJ7dErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Ivory Coast Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:59:20 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:59:20 +0300 Given the proprietorial manner in which the French state and Chirac treat francophone Africa, this is a surprising development. Even more surprising is the apparent involvement of British troops -- as if they didn't have enough to do just now. What to make of all this? Don't say that there's oil here somewhere. Special forces fly in as crisis builds up CAMERON SIMPSON The Herald, 26 September 2002 BRITISH and US forces flew to the rescue yesterday of westerners trapped in a deadly uprising in the Ivory Coast. Gun battles between loyalist troops and rebel soldiers continued in the the West African country's second city, Bouake, as the uprising entered its sixth day after a failed coup by ex-soldiers left at least 270 dead. The Pentagon deployed about 200 soldiers, mostly special forces, in two planes which touched down in Yamoussoukro, Ivory Coast's capital. Officials said about 300 Americans were in Bouake, a city of 500,000 held by rebels since a failed coup last Thursday. "Our idea is to get as many out as possible," said Richard Buangan, an American diplomat. About 100 French soldiers went to the rescue of 200 foreigners, including children, seeking shelter at a mission school on the outskirts of Bouake. The students and teachers of the International Christian Academy later left in a convoy of 10 to 12 cars bound for Yamoussoukro. Children in the convoy swung flags out car windows as the convoy headed to safety. British troops were sent to the former French colony to work with embassy staff on plans to evacuate nationals from the country if it becomes necessary. About 500 Britons live in the Ivory Coast but most are in the cities of Abidjan and Yamoussoukro. The Ministry of Defence said "a small team - less than 10" was on its way to assess security, but stressed no evacuation of the British citizens was being planned. A foreign office spokeswoman said: "Our advice to those in Abidjan at the moment is to live as normal a life as possible but to be alert and to observe the curfew." She said Britons living in northern towns controlled by rebels should be more cautious. "There are about a dozen Britons in Bouake and Korhogo. We're advising them to stay indoors and monitor local media." The rush to rescue westerners intensified as the uprising entered its sixth day after the failed coup by a core group of 750-800 ex-soldiers angry over their dismissal from the army for suspected disloyalty. About 20,000 French and thousands of other westerners live in Ivory Coast, the economic power house of former French West Africa. Beside Bouake, the rebels also took control of a northern opposition stronghold, Korhogo, during the uprising, the country's worst crisis since its first coup in 1999 which shattered stability in the once-prosperous nation. At least 270 people died just in the first days of the uprising, though no foreigners have been reported killed. Some 200 protesters yesterday threw stones at the French embassy, demanding it turn over an opposition leader with a northern, Muslim base of support who is being sheltered by the mission. They then marched on the embassy of predominantly Muslim Burkina Faso, scaling the walls to pull down and tear up the country's flag. President Laurent Gbagbo has pledged a full-scale battle to rout the rebels from Bouake and Korhogo. Military leaders say only concern for civilians has stalled the assault on Bouake. In Bouake, tense residents reached by telephone said rebels still controlled the city. Water and electricity had been cut since the weekend, most shops were shuttered, and prices of food and fuel were skyrocketing, they said. Few braved the rebel barricades thrown up across the city. "Everyone is at home. We're running out of everything," said one frightened Ivorian woman. "We are scared." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:04:08 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:04:08 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUZ5-0005ek-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:04:07 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUY9-0001fR-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:03:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUWQ-0001fI-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:01:22 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q8xZZ00415 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:59:35 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q8xWN32744 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:59:32 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK state: London mayoral election Thread-Index: AcJlOxvlBpkJ9tErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK state: London mayoral election Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:02:46 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:02:46 +0300 More strikes likely as Tube shutdown fails to end pay row By Matthew Beard The Independent, 26 September 2002 Millions of London commuters endured torturous journeys to work yesterday after a rail workers' strike paralysed the Underground for more than 24 hours. Only 15 of London Underground's 600 drivers turned up for work in support of the joint action by the Aslef and RMT unions, resulting in a total shutdown of the network. The pay dispute is likely to lead to a further 24-hour strike next Tuesday. The RMT and Aslef unions have rejected a three per cent pay rise for 18,500 LU employees and the unions are also demanding additional benefits, such as improved pensions and travel concessions on mainline railways. The industrial action, caused heavy congestion on the capital's streets. Huge traffic jams built up on all roads to the capital as an estimated 50,000 extra cars took to the road. The congestion was worsened when three heavy goods vehicles crashed at the junction of the M1 and M25, causing an 11-mile tailback. There was intense competition in bus queues and police officers patrolled bus stops in Shepherd's Bush and Hammersmith to maintain public order. Other commuters abandoned public transport and walked or cycled to work. As they sat simmering in their cars, the travelling public heard that there had been little, if any, progress in the dispute. LU insists it has no more money for a rise above three per cent and stressed that the unions' mandate was undermined by the fact that only 3,000 union members voted to strike, while others were not involved in the dispute, did not return ballot papers or voted against the action. Gerard Vickers, 43, a driver and RMT member, said his pay was about to rise to =A331,274 but added that the 3 per cent pay offer was "mingy". "[It] is not enough when you put it into the context of the conditions of service. We work most bank holidays, weekends and extremely unsocial hours in a dirty and hostile environment. This package has been imposed upon us." The RMT general secretary, Bob Crow, and the leader of Aslef, Mick Rix, joined an early-morning picket line in Golders Green, north-west London, and blamed London Underground for not accepting mediation. Mr Crow said: "The strike has been absolutely solid, with RMT members standing shoulder to shoulder with their colleagues from Aslef. "LU has no excuse not to come to mediation with us. We hope they will now see sense, but if they do not, then next week's strike will go ahead." Mr Rix, asked whether his union could maintain public support for the strike, said: "Once they start to know the truth about what has taken place, that there has been no meeting in five weeks, I think the public will understand." Mr Rix said more than 40 complaints of racial discrimination had been received from members since 2000. He claimed three black workers had been suspended because they had made complaints to "very white managers". The action was condemned by ministers and business leaders. The Secretary of State for Transport, Alistair Darling, said: "This strike is completely unnecessary and damaging. It is causing inconvenience to hundreds of thousands of passengers and businesses. "This is not the way to deal with these issues in this day and age. London Underground have already increased pay by 3 per cent on top of a significant increase last year. If the RMT and Aslef remain unhappy they should talk to management, not go on strike." The financial analysts Tenon have estimated the cost to London businesses of yesterday's stoppage at =A360m in lost output from workers who arrived late or abandoned work for the day. Digby Jones, director general of the Confederation of British Industry, said the strike would cause "huge damage" to businesses and to Britain's image. But the Mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that he backed the workers' right to strike. He said: "If you have got a management that won't negotiate, the only thing a workforce can do is strike." Mr Jones also attacked Mr Livingstone for failing to condemn the strike and warned that he was losing the confidence of London businesses. Mr Livingstone blamed LU for refusing to take part in further negotiations. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:06:13 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:06:13 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUb7-0005ey-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:06:13 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUa7-0001gJ-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:05:11 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUXS-0001fT-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:02:26 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q90dF01646 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:00:39 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q90bN01584 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:00:37 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK labour militancy & public order Thread-Index: AcJlO0MWBpkJ/NErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK labour militancy & public order Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:03:52 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:03:52 +0300 Crisis for Labour as strikes hit thousands By Jo Dillon, Political Correspondent and Andrew Johnson Independent on Sunday, 22 September 2002 Train passengers in the north of England faced chaos and disruption yesterday after conductors walked out in the latest 24-hour strike over pay. London commuters, meanwhile, are preparing to deal with a fresh burst of misery as members of Aslef get ready to bring the Underground to a halt for 24 hours from Tuesday evening. As talks with the Fire Brigade reach an impasse and council workers employed by private firms also consider strike action, Britain is facing its worst period of industrial relations since Tony Blair first came to power. This was the 19th one-day action by members of the Rail, Maritime and Transport Union in their nine-month dispute with Arriva Trains Northern. Station and retail staff also walked out in a separate pay dispute. The union general secretary, Bob Crow, said: "Arriva must understand that the RMT will no longer tolerate what are among the lowest pay rates in the rail industry." He also claimed Arriva had bullied union members from the beginning of the dispute. But Arriva'smanaging director, Euan Cameron, said: "A number of good offers have been put on the table and it is time for the RMT to take stock of the situation." The latest in the series of Tube strikes follows the rejection by the train-drivers' union, Aslef, of a 3 per cent pay offer. Another 24-hour stoppage is planned for 1 October. The Fire Brigades Union, meanwhile, has called for a ballot of its members for strike action, following a "derisory" 4 per cent pay offer from local authority employers. It would mark the first national walk-out in 25 years by Britain's 55,000 firefighters. Council workers employed by private firms also begin voting on industrial action tomorrow. The GMB general union is to ballot 300,000 people who work in local authority positions but are paid by private contractors. They aim to bring an end to a two-tier system that has allowed discrepancies of pay and conditions among co-workers. The dispute comes as the Government made it clear it is determined to press ahead with plans to give the private sector a bigger role in running public services, despite trade union calls for private finance initiatives to be halted. The GMB's general secretary, John Edmonds, said: "We still hope to sit down with ministers to resolve this issue but the fact is that our members feel neither Government nor the employers are listening to their concerns." A Downing Street spokesman said: "It is not our policy to comment on individual disputes other than to say we wish to see the minimum disruption to the public and constantly urge all sides to work together." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:08:17 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:08:17 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUd7-0005gv-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:08:17 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUc1-0001gq-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:07:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUaf-0001gg-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:05:45 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q93ww05644 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:03:58 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q93uN05582 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:03:56 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: EU stability & growth pact: France Thread-Index: AcJlO7l/BpkKAtErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] EU stability & growth pact: France Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:07:10 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:07:10 +0300 France goes it alone with spending plan By John Lichfield The Independent, 26 September 2002 The French national budget for next year, tabled yesterday, defies even the more relaxed rules on public finances in the eurozone proposed by Brussels on Tuesday. The European Commission wants countries belonging to the single currency to reduce their budget deficits in yearly steps to nothing by 2006 (instead of 2004 as originally agreed). But the French government has proposed a deficit of EUR44.6bn (=A328bn) or 2.6 per cent of GDP, the same as this year. Its projections are based on a forecast that the French economy will grow at 2.5 per cent next year, which is seen as wildly optimistic by non-government economists. In other words, France also risks breaking the annual eurozone deficit ceiling of 3 per cent of GDP, regarded as sacrosanct by Brussels, the European Central Bank and, officially, by the French government itself. The Prime Minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, who will defend his choices in a television interview tonight, has tried to keep all of the seemingly contradictory election promises made by President Jacques Chirac last spring. He has reduced income taxes and social charges on business and increased spending on the police and defence, but made no significant cuts in other parts of the government machine. Business leaders had hoped the 2003 budget would signal the government's willingness to take on the public service unions and allow "natural wastage" of state jobs. Five years ago, the Socialist-led government of Lionel Jospin was told there were 500,000 unnecessary posts on the public payroll. Although 58,000 civil servants are due to retire next year, the government is proposing a cut of only 1,089 jobs. Mr Raffarin is determined to avoid conflict with unions and public workers this autumn and winter. Business leaders and right-wing economists fear he has jettisoned the aim of leading a radical government prepared to suffer the pain of reforming the economy and state. ----- 'Big three' nations accused of bullying over currency pact By Stephen Castle in Brussels The Independent, 26 September 2002 A damaging rift opened in the European Union yesterday as smaller states angrily denounced a decision to relax Europe's single currency rules to suit more powerful nations unable to balance their budgets. Finance ministers and central bankers in Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland protested over Tuesday's announcement by the European Commission which gives France, Italy, Germany and Portugal until 2006 to balance their budgets, a two-year extension. The decision is seen as an acceptance of the inevitable: that the eurozone's big economies are stuck in the doldrums and have no realistic prospect of getting their public finances into shape by 2004. The concession opens the way for France and Italy further to weaken the rules laid down in the Stability and Growth Pact, designed to sustain confidence in the euro. Paris wants it to allow governments to stimulate their economies in times of sluggish growth - something that would be welcomed by the Treasury in Britain, which sees the rigidities of the pact as an impediment to entering the eurozone. But the Commission's announcement prompted protests from nations which have taken unpopular decisions to meet their commitments. They argue that the delay of Europe's balanced-budget deadline to 2006 may lead to higher inflation, prevent lower interest rates and test the credibility of the euro. Didier Reynders, Belgium's Finance Minister, argued: "If next year or in 2004 the German, Italian or French budgets should again veer away from an equilibrium, I think we would not only put at risk the pact but the legitimate confidence of investors and consumers in the evolution of the European Union." The Austrian Finance Minister, Karl-Heinz Grasser, said: "If one now postpones this [deadline] to 2006, that would be a wrong signal. A 'two-class' system with large euro states that don't have budget discipline and small states that maintain their discipline would not be acceptable." Opponents of the change will be outgunned because the three countries that stand to benefit from the concession - France, Italy and Germany - make up almost three quarters of the eurozone economy. Under the stability pact all governments are obliged to bring budgets close to balance in the "medium term". An initial target date of 2002 had already been postponed by two years before the surprise decision to move it to 2006. In exchange for the concession Brussels says it will expect countries that are still some way from balance to reduce their structural deficit by a minimum of 0.5 percentage points a year. Commission officials insist the centrepiece of the stability pact - under which countries with budget deficits higher than 3 per cent of gross domestic product face massive fines - remains intact. But it is under strain. Portugal broke the ceiling last year with a 4.1 per cent deficit and France and Germany are in danger of going above 3 per cent this year. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:11:08 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:11:08 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUfs-0005hC-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:11:08 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUev-0001jn-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:10:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUcy-0001je-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:08:08 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q96Lm07947 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:06:21 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q96JN07815 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:06:19 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Britain/US split: Iraq Thread-Index: AcJlPA7hBpkKB9ErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Britain/US split: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:09:34 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:09:34 +0300 Britain fights to restrain US over combative UN resolution By David Usborne in New York Andrew Grice and Ben Russell The Independent, 26 September 2002 The common front between Britain and the United States against Iraq was under strain last night as crucial differences emerged over a new UN resolution aimed at resolving the crisis. Britain has mounted a behind-the-scenes effort to dissuade the White House from seeking a resolution on Iraq that would be so belligerent as to make its passage through the UN Security Council virtually impossible. President George Bush was expected to sign a draft text for the Security Council's consideration last night or today. But there is anxiety in London that it may overstep what other members, notably France and Russia, would find palatable. Tony Blair is determined to secure the unanimous backing of the five permanent members of the Council. He believes that abstentions when demands were last made on Iraq made it easier for Saddam Hussein to flout the UN's will. Britain is prepared to co-sponsor with the US a tough resolution saying that President Saddam must give UN inspectors full and unfettered access to any sites in Iraq they wish to visit. But divisions have emerged with the Bush administration about how specific the threat of military action should be. One draft warns that any "failure" to comply will result in "international action" under Chapter VII of the UN charter, which provides for military intervention to enforce decisions. However, Britain believes that Russia holds the key to winning unanimous support and is unlikely to back such an open threat of war. London may propose a less explicit motion in the hope of bringing Moscow onside. Russia's doubts were displayed yesterday when its Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov, dismissed the "propaganda furore" surrounding the British government's dossier on Iraqi weapons and said the return of the inspectors was the priority. Diplomats at UN headquarters in New York warned that an overly aggressive draft resolution could quickly doom all hope of seeing a return of the arms inspectors to Iraq. Such an outcome would have unprecedented diplomatic consequences and leave the US free to pursue war, giving Mr Blair an agonising dilemma over whether to join military action. "The most crucial task is to get something that all five countries can agree on," one British source said last night. Britain hopes that agreement with the US can be reached by the weekend. A possible compromise is a text that makes it clear to Iraq that war will be the consequence of not co-operating over inspections but which does not seem to give America a pretext at the first sign of trouble. "In no way can it contain triggers that would allow one member state to rush off to war," one Western diplomat warned. Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, insisted last night that Britain and America already had "ample power" to justify military strikes. He told the Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee: "We do not regard it as absolutely essential that there should be a new Security Council resolution - we regard it as desirable." Mr Straw is to visit key states in the Gulf, including Iran,after next week's Labour Party conference in an attempt to build support for military action. ----- Peter Carrington: Regime change is all very well, but who will replace Saddam? The Independent, 26 September 2002 There is no doubt that Iraq possesses biological and chemical weapons. It may well be that it is a country on the road to possessing nuclear weapons - and the means of delivering them. If it is not at present, then I am quite sure that Saddam Hussein will go on trying to do so. There is no question that the Iraqi regime is thoroughly unpleasant, has been aggressive on two occasions against its neighbours, is brutally oppressive to its own people and, as long as it has these weapons of mass destruction, can in no sense be relied upon not to use them. We are all equally agreed that Saddam Hussein is a thoroughly unpleasant character, unscrupulous and cruel and, at the same time, a cunning and devious politician. I have met him on two occasions and, to say the least of it, I did not come away with a very favourable impression. It is equally true that Iraq is in breach of a number of United Nations Security Council resolutions, not least the obligation to accept United Nations weapons inspectors and disarmament, although it must be said - it is not in mitigation - that it is not alone in ignoring UN resolutions. That I would say is common ground. The question is this: what should we do about it? I am sure that it was right for the United States to go to the United Nations Security Council. I am equally sure that the Prime Minister played a part in achieving that result, and I applaud him for it. Unilateral action taken by the United States would have caused the greatest possible division - not just in the Arab world but also in Europe and elsewhere. The consequences would have been far-reaching. The fact that Iraq has now said that the UN weapons inspectors can now return is not in itself enough. We have seen the impediments, prevarications, and obstacles that the Iraqis have put previously in the way of the weapons inspectors. It is fair to assume that Saddam Hussein will use exactly the same delaying tactics again. Indeed, there are already indications of qualifications about what the weapons inspectors can or cannot see. I believe, therefore, that the United States is right in insisting upon a new UN resolution that will not just place an obligation on the Iraqis to facilitate the work of the inspectors but will also place an obligation on them to disarm and impose a time limit and provisions for taking action if they do not comply. We have seen too much delay and obstruction. I hope and I believe that such a resolution will gain the support of members of the Security Council. It may well be that as a result there will be a change of regime in Iraq, which, of course, is much to be hoped for. But if that does not happen, I am not clear what the United States' position is. It speaks of the imperative of a change of regime. But how will it bring that about, and on what basis? If the weapons inspectors have done their job properly and the weapons of mass destruction currently in the hands of the Iraqis have disappeared, Saddam Hussein does not cease to be a threat to the people of Iraq but he ceases to be a threat to his neighbours. It is on the basis of his possession of these weapons that we are now concerned. On what basis should he be removed? If he were to be removed, who would take his place? Would it be a government appointed by the United States? It is almost impossible to see how a fair, democratic election could take place in Iraq at present. The country is split religiously and racially. There are no obvious opposition leaders. Those questions need to be asked and answered. One might go further. If Saddam Hussein has no weapons of mass destruction, he is no more dangerous to the rest of the world than are other dictators and despots who oppress their citizens. Robert Mugabe immediately comes to mind. He is no threat to our security, but he is inflicting on his fellow citizens cruelties, discrimination and hardship. So far as I know, no one has yet suggested a compulsory change of his regime by force or otherwise. Would not such an action on the part of the United States set a precedent that would be very difficult to accept in other cases? It seems to me that these are very important issues, and I hope that the Government will think very carefully before accepting proposals for a change of regime of that kind. But on the issue of the inspectors and a new Security Council resolution, I am wholly on the side of the United States. Lord Carrington was Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs (1979-82), Secretary of State for Defence (1974) and Secretary General of Nato (1984-88). The above text is based on remarks he made in the House of Lords during Wednesday's debate on Iraq's intention to develop and use weapons of mass destruction From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:28:10 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:28:10 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUwM-0005lr-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:28:10 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUqX-0001kp-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:22:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUp6-0001kg-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:20:40 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9IrV21735 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:18:53 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9IpN21673 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:18:51 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Russia/US tensions: Iraq Thread-Index: AcJlPc8YBpkKDNErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Russia/US tensions: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:22:06 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:22:06 +0300 Following the earlier reportage of the brazen hustling for contracts by US companies: see http://lists.econ.utah.edu/pipermail/a-list/2002-September/020705.html Russia fears US oil companies will take over world's second-biggest reserves By Andrew Buncombe in Washington The Independent, 26 September 2002 Oil companies from around the world are manoeuvring for the multibillion-dollar bonanza that would follow the ousting of Saddam Hussein. Russia is so concerned that it has been holding secretive talks with the Iraqi opposition to shore up its economic interests in the country which still owes Moscow $7bn dollars from Soviet times. With the second-biggest reserves in the world, Iraq's underdeveloped oilfields have become a key negotiating chip and a backdrop to talks between the US and the other permanent members of the UN Security Council - all of which have major economic stakes in regime change in Iraq. It has also given fuel to critics of America's war plans who say the desire for regime change is at least partly driven by economics. Oil industry experts say there is growing concern that America would dominate the Iraqi oil industry after Saddam. As a result, a number of oil companies have reportedly held talks with the Iraqi opposition to ensure they are involved in any future deals. The Independent has learnt that the Russian government - which is friendly towards Iraq - recently dispatched a diplomat to hold talks with a senior official from the Iraqi National Congress (INC), the US-backed opposition umbrella group. At that meeting in Washington on 29 August - the first for seven years - the diplomat expressed worries that Russia would be kept out of the oil markets by the US. James Woolsey, a former director of the CIA and a commentator on the relationship between oil and global security, told The Washington Post: "It's pretty straightforward. France and Russia have oil companies and interests in Iraq. They should be told that if they are of assistance in moving Iraq toward decent government we'll do the best we can to ensure the new government and American companies work closely with them. "If they throw in their lot with Saddam it will be difficult to the point of impossible to persuade the new Iraqi government to work with them." Iraq has confirmed oil reserves of 112 billion barrels, second only to Saudi Arabia, with perhaps double that in undiscovered reserves. With sanctions in place, the current production is just 2.8 million barrels a day - a capacity it struggles to reach because of deteriorating equipment. Under the United Nations' oil-for-food programme, it exports about one million barrels a day. Since 1998, two subsidiaries of Houston-based Halliburton, the company previously headed by the US Vice-President, Dick Cheney, have done $24m (=A315.3m) of business to repair Iraqi oil pipelines under the UN programme. Experts say that given sufficient further foreign investment, Iraq could be producing a total of 6 million barrels a day within five years, making it the world's third biggest producer behind Russia and Saudi Arabia. But which companies will benefit from these rich pickings? Since the end of the Gulf War, companies from more than a dozen nations - including Britain - have had discussions with Iraq about developing oilfields. In 1997, Russia's Lukoil negotiated a $4bn deal to develop the West Qurna oilfield while last year another Russian company, Slavneft, signed a $42m (=A327m) deal to drill in Tuba. The French TotalFinaElf company has negotiated the rights for the vast Majnoon oilfield, which is near the Iranian border. It is unclear whether such deals would be honoured by a post-Saddam Iraqi government. Faisal Qaragholi, an official with the INC, said that all such deals would be reviewed. "If the deal [helps] the Iraqi people then it will be carried on, if it does not, it will be renegotiated," he said. The INC's chairman, Ahmed Chalabi, believes the US should head a consortium to develop Iraq's oil. "American companies will have a big shot at Iraqi oil," he said. Such comments horrify the Russian government, which as a major oil exporter has much to lose should America assume a dominant position in Iraq's oil industry. Thane Gustafson, senior director with the Cambridge Energy Associates (Cera) consultants, said the issue was almost certainly a factor in Russia's negotiations with the US about a new UN resolution over weapons inspectors. "Oil is bound to be on [President Vladimir] Putin's mind because of the importance of oil exports," he said. "It's bound to worry Putin. He would probably prefer things pretty much as they are now." Russia's concern led it to dispatch Andrew Kroshkin, a diplomat, to hold talks with the INC's Washington director, Entifadh Qanbar. Mr Qanbar said that during the two-hour meeting at the INC office, Mr Kroshkin said the Iraq policy of Russia - which has estimated debts of $100bn (=A364m) - was "100 per made by money". "He told me that he had been told that if the Americans overthrow Iraq they will not let the Russians do business in Iraq," he said. "We have seen this in the Balkans. He wanted to say that Russia's dealings with Iraq are based on historical and economic relations, not on relations with Saddam." The importance of Iraqi oil is also to be discussed next week at a US-Russian energy summit in Houston at which more than 100 US and Russian energy companies are expected to be represented. In this environment, it is likely that most leading oil companies are actively trying to position themselves to operate in Iraq if Saddam is overthrown. The US oil giants ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco both refused to say whether they had been holding talks with Iraqi opposition. Both said, however, that they would be interested in operating in Iraq if sanctions permitted. A spokesman for Royal Dutch Shell, the British-Dutch company which held discussions with President Saddam about developing the Ratawi oilfield several years ago, said it had not approached the INC. But if sanctions were lifted, the company would be interested in dealing with Iraq, he said. James Lucier, an oil analyst with Prudential Securities, said: "There's no real upside for American oil companies to take a very aggressive stance at this stage. There'll be plenty of time in the future." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:29:14 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:29:14 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUxO-0005mA-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:29:14 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUwK-0001op-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:28:08 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUuk-0001oY-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:26:30 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9OhG26801 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:24:43 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9OfN26693 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:24:41 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Global Economy: IMF gloom Thread-Index: AcJlPp9oBpkKHNErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Global Economy: IMF gloom Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:27:55 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:27:55 +0300 IMF alarm over global economy Double dip: Serious downside risk, warns World Economic Report in gloomiest assessment for years By Rupert Cornwell in Washington The Independent, 26 September 2002 In its gloomiest assessment of the global economy for many years, the International Monetary Fund slashed its forecasts for growth in almost every major industrial country yesterday, and warned that things could easily get worse still. Warning that the downside risks were "serious", Kenneth Rogoff, the IMF's research director, listed a host of factors, which alone or in combination could derail the fund's already modest expectations. They include a further tumble in stock prices, a fizzling of the current recovery, the banking crisis in Japan and economic turmoil in Latin America =AD not to mention a possible war in Iraq. The fund calculates that a year-long $5 increase in the price of a barrel of oil would shave 0.3 per cent off global growth. But a $15 spike, similar to what happened when Iraq was driven from Kuwait in 1991, would reduce output by 1 per cent if sustained for a full year. Worse still, a full-scale war could trigger a chain reaction. As the Fund's World Economic Outlook warns, a conflict "would increase the likelihood of other risks to growth occurring and exacerbate their impact". As it is, the IMF expects the world economy to expand by just 3.7 per cent next year, compared with the 4 per cent forecast last April. US growth has been downgraded to 2.6 per cent from 3.4 per cent. Growth in the euro-area is put at 2.3 per cent, down from the 2.9 per cent predicted in April. Forecasts for the UK have been scaled back to 1.7 per cent for this year, and 2.4 per cent for 2003. Mr Rogoff warned that though he did not expect "the Japan scenario" =AD where a decade-long deflation is expected to see the economy contract 0.5 per cent this year =AD to spread elsewhere, the risks between inflation and generalised deflation "were more balanced than at any time since the war". As it was, price inflation in the industrialised world, forecast at 1.4 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent for 2003, was "a modern era low, effectively equivalent to zero inflation". Addressing the recent decline in equity markets, the report says they could fall further, especially if fresh accounting scandals crop up in the US and elsewhere. If share prices tumble further, or even remain around their current levels, economic growth will drop as well. Further sell-offs on Wall Street could also trigger a new bout of dollar weakness. Despite its recent weakness, the currency was still overvalued =AD a fact reflected in the massive US trade deficit, now equivalent to almost 5 per cent of GDP. "The question is not whether the deficit will be sustained at the present level forever =AD it will not =AD but more when and how the eventual adjustment takes place," the report argues. "An abrupt and disruptive adjustment [to both the trade deficit and the value of the US dollar] remains a significant risk." Mr Rogoff then repeated the fund's equally longstanding complaints over Europe, citing the inflexible labour markets and an ageing population which in the IMF's view prevent the EU from realising its "enormous potential for growth". Over the next decade, he declared, Europe "had to decide whether it wanted to be a locomotive for the world economy, or just a caboose [a guard's van at the back of a train]". But a more immediate danger lies in the mounting turmoil in Latin America. Argentina, gripped by "an unprecedented and tragic crisis" in Mr Rogoff's words was facing a 16 per cent slump in its GDP this year =AD a collapse twice as great as during the Great Depression. The crisis now threatens to spill over into Brazil, Latin America's largest economy ahead of next month's presidential election at which the left-wing Workers' Party is the favourite to win. A new $30bn IMF standby facility this summer has failed to restore market confidence. Foreign creditors are rushing to pull out money and the real, Brazil's currency, has lost 40 per cent of its value against the dollar this year, bringing closer the risk of an Argentine-style default on Brazil's huge foreign debt. Were a second d=E9b=E2cle to happen, specialists warn the impact on the fund's credibility could be devastating. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:30:07 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:30:07 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUyF-0005mY-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:30:07 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUsT-0001ne-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:24:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUpx-0001kr-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:21:33 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9JkA22063 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:19:46 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9JiN21946 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:19:44 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US imperialism: unilateralism and ICC Thread-Index: AcJlPe6PBpkKEdErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: unilateralism and ICC Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:22:58 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:22:58 +0300 Bush gathers support for international court veto By Sonya Ross in Washington The Independent, 26 September 2002 Twelve nations have agreed to a request by the United States not to turn over American peace-keepers to a new international criminal court. Pierre-Richard Prosper, the US ambassador-at-large for war crimes issues, did not name the 12 countries but the State Department said Micronesia signed an agreement yesterday, joining Romania, Israel, East Timor, the Marshall Islands, Afghanistan, Honduras, Uzbekistan, Mauritania, Dominican Republic, Palau and Tajikistan. Mr Prosper said yesterday that the American campaign to reach more one-on-one pacts would yield "quite a handful of agreements in coming days and weeks. A lot of states are coming forward, and don't see our agreements as a problem." The International Criminal Court was set up to prosecute those accused of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes committed after 1 July. It will intervene only when a country is unable or lacks the political will to try a suspect. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:31:08 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:31:08 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUzE-0005mj-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:31:08 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUyH-0001rz-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:30:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUwu-0001rp-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:28:44 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9QvH29134 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:26:57 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9QtN29072 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:26:55 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK productivity miracle Thread-Index: AcJlPu85BpkKKNErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK productivity miracle Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:30:09 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:30:09 +0300 Time is money, and we want both Work-life balance week means nothing to those who need it most Melissa Benn Thursday September 26, 2002 The Guardian Britain is the hardest working nation in Europe with nearly four million of us putting in up to 50 hours or more a week at work. And yet - funny this - the buzz words of our time are increasingly "work-life balance", an American-sounding concept with a new age element that disguises some sensible British-style objectives. No one should be selling his or her soul to the company; most people have a home life that needs nurturing and if they don't they should get one or at least find a hobby to absorb them. Being against work-life balance would be a bit like being against summer or good sex. Perhaps that is why this year's WLB week, which kicked off on Monday with a lunch at Claridges, has attracted a formidable array of corporate and government backers including lead sponsor BT and the minister responsible for work-life balance, Alan Johnson. (Who knew we had a work-life balance minister?) But scrolling down the glossy programme for this week of celebration of all things balanced, some stubborn voice in me will not quieten. It is partly the voice of history. Dig beneath the ghastly new "win/win" language of polibiz ("people, progress, profit...") that permeates discussion of the workplace and one finds some fundamental principles. First, no one should be forced to work long hours to make a decent living. The history of the trade union movement is, in part, the history of battles for a shorter working week, from the struggle for the 10 and then the eight-hour day in the 19th century to modern European workers' campaigns for the 35-hour week. To fully grasp the nitty-gritty of the current debate, you would do better to turn from upbeat WLB brochures to the press releases of the TUC, which has long campaigned on the problem of Britain's ever-lengthening work week and has recently pointed out how little impact the limited introduction of flexible working has had on our working time. Earlier this year the TUC led the campaign to oppose an extension of the right to opt-out of the EU working time directive. A CBI survey in 2001 found that the opt-out provision has been used by up to 71% of workers in larger companies. But the story of modern work is also the story of women's massed entry into the workforce. It is well to remember recent history here, too, lest anyone should think that important initiatives such as flexitime, term-time working, job sharing and the like were all the brainchild of a human resources manager. Numerous women in the 1970s and 1980s, from trade unionists to Labour party activists to members of voluntary sector bodies such as the National Council for Civil Liberties, pioneered new family-friendly work patterns. It is hard to imagine now just how daring some of those proposals looked only 10 or 15 years ago. And it is getting harder to remember how much resistance there was from employers, trade unions and political parties. The official take on working time, exemplified by WLB and the government, is that it can and should be depoliticised: it denies that there should ever, God forbid, be a conflict of interest between employers and their employees or that employees should have creative ideas of their own about how work should be run. Instead, official arguments for WLB, flexecutives and the rest are couched in terms of the economic benefits to business. Profit margins up! Absenteeism down! But trade union involvement in the meaning and future of work, and pay, is becoming more not less vital, as this summers' strikes over low pay in the public sector showed. The WLB movement is just as careful to couch everything in courteous gender neutral terms. But the way we organise working time cuts deep into the way we organise family life and vice versa. Too many families still divide along man/work, women/life fault lines. He does the stressful, but often highly rewarded, 48 or 68 hours a week while she takes up the endless slack at home, constrained by family responsibilities and often the poorer for it. The Equal Opportunities Commission says half of British women have a disposable income of less than =A3100 a week. Still, seeing this is WLB week, why not dream a little? Dream of a radically shorter working week, particularly for men. (Cynics would do well to remember that national output remained steady during the 1974 three-day week.) We can dream too of a different organisation of duties and pleasures within the home, the release of creative energies for the many who are imprisoned - and no, that's not too strong a term - in caring for the young, the sick and the old. So how about following up WLB with a DDW (Domestic Democracy Week) to run over the week, say, of December 23 to December 27? Would Sainsbury's or Ikea sponsor this one? From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:32:09 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:32:09 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV0D-0005mu-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:32:09 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUuP-0001oB-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:26:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUsy-0001o1-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:24:40 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9Mr224848 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:22:53 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9MpN24733 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:22:51 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US state: ruling class split Thread-Index: AcJlPl3WBpkKF9ErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US state: ruling class split Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:26:05 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:26:05 +0300 Democrat leader rages at Bush's 'patriot' claim By Andrew Buncombe The Independent, 26 September 2002 Tom Daschle, the most senior Democrat on Capitol Hill, launched an impassioned attack on President George Bush yesterday, accusing him of politicising the debate over Iraq and of making offensive comments about Democrats. Mr Daschle, the US equivalent of Leader of the Opposition, demanded Mr Bush apologise after the President said Democrats were not "interested in the security of the American people". "You tell those who fought in Vietnam and in World War Two they're not interested in the security of the American people," said Mr Daschle, his voice breaking with emotion. "That is outrageous." Speaking from the Senate floor, he added: "We ought not to politicise this war. We ought not to politicise the rhetoric about life and death. "It's not too late to forget the pollsters, forget the campaign and fund-raisers, forget making accusations about how interested in national security Democrats are, and let's get this job done right." The mild-mannered Mr Daschle spoke out after Mr Bush said this week that "the Senate is more interested in special interests in Washington and not interested in the security of the American people". The President's spokesman yesterday said Mr Bush stood by his comments. Mr Daschle's comments follow criticism from the former vice-president Al Gore, who said Mr Bush had squandering sympathy towards the US and failed to recognise the diplomatic fall-out that would follow war on Iraq. ------ Daschle lashes out at White House over Iraq By FT.com staff Published: September 25 2002 20:57 | Last Updated: September 25 2002 20:57 Tom Daschle, US senate majority leader, demanded an apology from the White House on Wednesday morning for suggesting that legislators in the Democratic party who oppose war in Iraq are indifferent to national security issues. "We ought not to politicise" such urgent foreign policy matters, particularly in criticising political opponents for opposition to war, an angry Mr Daschle told fellow senators. An animated Mr Daschle also demanded that President George W. Bush apologise to Democratic senators who are war veterans, citing several of them by name. News reports have said that Mr Bush and Dick Cheney, US vice-president, have suggested at recent campaign rallies that Democrats who oppose a first-strike attack on Iraq do not care about national security. Mr Daschle made his comments amid floor debates about Iraq and homeland security. The Wednesday morning speech marks a departure from the Senate's quieter public discussion over Iraq thus far. Robert Byrd, the most senior Democratic senator, called the implication "despicable." But Phil Gramm, a Texas Republican who is retiring at the end of this year, called the suggestions that the White House is politicising the war "a pretty serious accusation." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:32:23 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:32:23 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV0R-0005n2-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:32:23 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUzP-0001sM-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:31:19 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uUw5-0001qA-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:27:53 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9Q6Y28096 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:26:06 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9Q4N28034 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:26:04 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK labour militancy & public order Thread-Index: AcJlPtFEBpkKItErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK labour militancy & public order Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:29:19 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:29:19 +0300 Majority backs fire strikes and wants PFI halted Alan Travis and Kevin Maguire Thursday September 26, 2002 The Guardian An overwhelming majority of the public believes firefighters would be justified in striking over pay and support a moratorium on the government's private finance initiative, according to this month's Guardian/ICM opinion poll. The results will make uncomfortable reading in Downing Street as the prime minister prepares to confront fire crews and struggles to avert an embarrassing defeat over public services at next week's Labour conference. Senior advisers to Mr Blair and chancellor Gordon Brown are to hold talks with union leaders today and tomorrow in a desperate attempt to persuade them to water down opposition to the use of private finance to improve public services, including health, education and transport. With the poll finding overwhelming support for the unions' call for a halt on new contracts in which private companies are asked to run public services, Downing Street will fear a hardening of the resolve of union leaders. In a direct rejection of one of Mr Blair's most cherished policies a surprising 63% of voters say they support the demand for a full review of how such public-private partnerships are working ahead of any more contracts being awarded. The issue is expected to emerge in Blackpool next week as the second most important flashpoint after Iraq, with Mr Blair and Mr Brown in danger of being defeated. Two of Britain's biggest unions, Unison and the GMB, with the backing of a third, the TGWU, have submitted motions demanding a moratorium on new PFI deals ahead of a full review and study into public alternatives. The poll shows support for a moratorium is fairly solid across the political spectrum with 65% of Labour voters supporting the idea, 70% of Liberal Democrats and even 61% of Conservative voters. When it comes to the growing wave of public sector disputes over pay, voters are very selective about which groups they are prepared to support. But the strong backing for firefighters claiming a 40% increase will concern a prime minister ready to deploy troops in ageing Green Goddess tenders from the end of October to answer emergency calls. As the Fire Brigades Union prepares to start balloting 52,000 members tomorrow, the poll uncovered strong support from the public, with 68% saying strike action would be justified. Even 63% of Tory voters would support them going on strike. Elsewhere in the public sector a majority of all voters, 56%, would also support a pay campaign by teachers but London Underground workers, who yesterday shut down the capital's tube network for the fourth time in 18 months, gain far less sympathy. Only a third of voters believe their 24-hour walkouts over pay are justified while 40% believe they are wrong to close down the underground. The prime minister's and chancellor's advisers are expected to sound out union leaders on a possible PFI deal based on stronger protection for the pay and conditions of staff employed or transferred to private firms. Party managers in Labour's Old Queen Street headquarters have helped generate eight emergency pro-PFI resolutions from constituency parties as a counterweight to the hostile union motions. Resolutions with near identical wording supportive of the leadership line, welcoming "additional" private investment, were tabled this month. PFI is virtually certain to be selected as an issue for debate in a special ballot when the conference opens on Sunday and a party fixer said the intention was to "swamp" union leaders with constituency delegates at meetings called to draw up a potential composite motion representing all views. But Dave Prentis, Unison general secretary, yesterday wrote to constituency parties asking for their support to oppose PFI. "There is widespread concern that PFI is inherently flawed and we believe it is now time for the government to review its position and explore other funding options," he said. * ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18 and over by telephone between September 20-22, 2002. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:35:29 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:35:29 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV3R-0005nJ-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:35:29 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV2A-0001sx-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:34:10 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV0M-0001so-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:32:18 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9UVn01413 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:30:31 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9UTN01349 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:30:29 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: The Policy Network Thread-Index: AcJlP287BpkKLtErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] The Policy Network Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:33:44 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:33:44 +0300 Continuing the eternally recurrent rehabilitation of Peter Mandelson, the ever-dependable Guardian makes its contribution... What Peter did next In January last year, the controversial architect of New Labour was forced to resign from the cabinet a second time. So how is he coping in the wilderness? Could he make one more comeback? How close is he really to Tony Blair? And what on earth is he doing in Kuala Lumpur? Ian Katz followed Peter Mandelson from south-east Asia to Hartlepool via a Surrey hotel in search of some answers Thursday September 26, 2002 The Guardian The right honourable member for Hartlepool's visit to Malaysia does not get off to an auspicious start. According to the itinerary, his first meeting is with members of the Backbenchers' Club. The notes explain that the club is for government MPs only and that "its leading members are influential and their views widely reported". But when we arrive at the slightly shabby parliament building in Kuala Lumpur, there is just one backbencher waiting, and he looks decidedly uncomfortable. He explains that he has been having trouble rounding up his colleagues: "I'm very embarrassed. There may only be one other person." Counting the British high commissioner and one of his officials, there are four of us here to see one mid-level Malaysian MP. The high commissioner, a scholarly gnome of a man, looks painfully embarrassed, but his visitor is unfazed. He leans back in a black armchair and begins telling the member for Batu about the time he met the Malaysian prime minister in London. As most Malaysians do, Peter Mandelson knowingly refers to Dr Mahathir Mohamed as "Dr M". He is wearing a broad, dark pinstripe suit and shiny black brogues. His recently blow-dried black hair is being bufetted gently by the air-conditioning in the gloomy meeting room. The conversation turns to Iraq and Mandelson makes a robust argument for action against "Saddam Hoooosein". He speaks in a creamy, slightly nasal voice, meticulously assembling long, clause-laden but somehow grammatical sentences as though giving dictation. He uses his hands sparingly to underline his points; when he wants to distil a thought from the conversation, he wiggles the fingers on one hand as though to pluck the idea from the ether. After an hour or so, he expertly winds up the meeting, declaring: "We've arrived at more of a common position than seemed likely at the beginning of this conversation." As we walk out through the parliament building, he quizzes a second Malaysian official who has joined the meeting late about the koi carp in an indoor pond below. The Malaysian answers his questions, then sidles over to me and whispers: "Who is that man?" If this is a lower-key start to his tour than he was expecting, the member for Hartlepool isn't letting on. He has before him a packed schedule: lunch with advisers to the prime minister designate, a speech on the world post-September 11, a dinner with "senior commentators, businessmen and politicians", another speech, this time on "Britain and the euro", a meeting with the UN's special representative on Burma, and assorted media interviews. And that's just the Malaysian leg of this tour; he's already been to Indonesia, where he met the vice-president and the minister of defence, and after this he will head to Thailand where he will see the prime minister and assorted bigwigs. What is Mandelson up to, 6,557 miles from Westminster? Ask him and he talks about being "a member of the House of Commons, a parliamentarian... with an interest in world affairs." He wants to learn about south-east Asia, and the only way to do that is by "breathing in its atmosphere, meeting its politicians and using your eyes and ears". And while he's about it, he says, he tries to "put something back in" by "promoting the UK, and its political and trade and investment interests". But that doesn't explain why so many of the region's leading political figures are willing to find a space in their diaries for him, or why dozens of senior diplomats will show up for his speech on the world after 9/11, or why he will spend much of his visit putting the Anglo-American case for military action against Iraq. The reason south-east Asia gives a fig what the member for Hartlepool thinks, of course, is that they think he knows what Tony Blair thinks. But pinning down the precise status of Mandelson's trip, the extent to which he is representing the prime minister, is a tricky business. And that's the way it's meant to be: Mandelson knows he needs to exploit his access to the prime-ministerial ear in order to be treated as anything more than a political has-been - but also that flaunting it could cause severe embarrassment to his old friend. The delicacy of this balancing act has already been highlighted in Indonesia where the British embassy triggered a minor political storm by describing Mandelson on its website as Tony Blair's "special emissary". Now Mandelson is being strenuously careful not to overstate his role: "I'm explaining British policy, I'm explaining government thinking, I'm describing the position of the prime minister but I'm not sent on behalf of the government... I am qualified to describe the prime minister's thinking, because I know what it is, and I faithfully represent it, I never deviate from it." Even if you did not know of Mandelson's peculiar form of power-by-proxy, he has extraordinary presence. He is taller than you imagine - perhaps 6ft 1in - and there's a curious stillness about him that seems to amplify his gravitas. And after his speech at Kuala Lumpur's Institute of Strategic and International Studies, we are treated to a powerful reminder of his finely honed political skills. We are pulling away from the building in the high commissioner's heavily air-conditioned Daimler when a man in a suit walks towards the car smiling. In one movement, Mandelson is out of the car and shaking his hand like an old friend. The high commissioner is impressed: the man is Tunku Imran, a prominent businessman and son of one of Malyasia's senior royals. "I didn't know you'd met," he says, as Mandelson gets back into the car. The member for Hartlepool grins: "I've never seen him before in my life." After two days watching Mandelson preach the gospel of military intervention in Iraq to Kuala Lumpur's (deeply sceptical) opinion formers and journalists, you can't help feeling like you are watching a Premiership footballer who has been consigned through some administrative calumny to the Dr Marten's League. By the end of the high commissioner's dinner, the newspaper proprietor has reached a similar conclusion. "When are you going to be back in government?" he asks, as Mandelson evinces unconvincing embarrassment. "You should be secretary of state for foreign affairs. I met that man Cook - you'd be much better than him." The conventional wisdom, of course, is that there is no route back to ministerial office for Mandelson. As Patrick Wintour wrote memorably in this newspaper on the morning after his second resignation: "Even Jesus Christ did not earn a second resurrection." But some who have watched Mandelson's progress since last January doubt he believes the doors to Whitehall will remain shut forever. Why else would he beat this thankless path around the world, faithfully disseminating the word of his former master? (The register of member's interests records at least 15 foreign trips since August 2001.) Why would he throw himself with such gusto into the prosaic business of a constituency MP, or sustain such a prolific output of wonkish articles and pronouncements, when he could be off developing a more glamorous and lucrative career? When I ask him directly, Mandelson insists that he has no hope of returning to government. Somewhat less convincingly, he adds that he is quite happy being an MP and that he doesn't know what he wants to do next. "I've never had a great career gameplan, things have always turned up." He is packing as we talk in his hotel room. I spot a paperback copy of Donald Macintyre's biography of him in his suitcase, and a second nearby. I teasingly ask whether he needs them to look up the details of his own life and he replies that they make a good gift during his travels. Mandelson can be an infuriating interviewee. Switch on a tape recorder, and he suddenly clicks into "professional politician" mode, measuring each word as though he is speaking on live television. He speaks unnaturally slowly, parsing each sentence for any potential news value, and intercepting anything remotely interesting or controversial before it reaches his lips. I ask him whether he has had any contact with Downing Street during the week he has been travelling in Asia. He pauses for several seconds before answering: "No." This is a classic Mandelson response. If the true answer is "no", then his dramatic pause will encourage me to think he is more plugged in than he is; if the true answer is "yes", then he has managed to imply that it might be, but that propriety prevents him from acknowleging the fact. Why did it take him so long to answer, I ask? "Because I had to think about where you were coming from." (Later in London we will have another similar exchange. I will ask him, a week or so before its scheduled publication, whether he has seen the government's dossier on Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction, and he will reply: "It depends what you mean by seen.") By the end of this first interview Mandelson is tetchy and unforthcoming. But by late afternoon he is in a puckish mood. A Malaysian businessman has sent him a basket of mangosteens, a fruit for which he has developed a particular enthusiasm, and he wants to have a "fruit party" by the high commissioner's swimming pool. As we swim slow breastroke lengths of the pool, he is suddenly disarmingly candid. I ask why he has not broken out of the Westminster orbit to try something different and he says no one has offered him a job, before adding: "And I am a politician. And with all my failings and frailties I think I'm a pretty good one." He says he feels he has been able to carve out an international role of his own, whereas if he was similarly active in domestic politics he would quickly run into trouble. I suggest that he seems to have recreated a facsimile of the ministerial life he craves, and he shakes his head a little sadly. "No, being a minister is about making decisions. I know, I've been a minister." It is one of those beautiful, crystalline English autumn days and 30 or so policy wonks, ministers and apparatchiks from several European countries have gathered in a Surrey hotel for a two day third way think-fest. Apart from Alan Milburn, the boyish-looking secretary of state for health, they are the sort of people you dimly feel you should recognise but can't quite place. Perhaps you have seen them in the background of pictures of other, higher profile, political figures. I ask one of the organisers to point out some of the big-hitters to me. "That," she says pointing to a well-dressed man with silvering hair, "is Jens Stoltenberg, the former Norwegian prime minister. And you see that guy behind him? That's one of his advisers." Compared to everyone else in the room - all the men are wearing suits - Mandelson is almost ostentatiously underdressed in chinos, a Ralph Lauren polo shirt with rolled up sleeves and a rather extraordinary pair of black rubber trainers that look as though they have been designed for windsurfing. "I got them in Jakarta," he volunteers when I ask about them. "You missed a great meeting with the Thai prime minister. It was a work of art." Who was the artist? "He thought he was. I also had a great meeting with the deputy leader of the left party. He's a terrific Blairite character. I'm going to help him a lot." Mandelson is in his element here, among the third way faithful. His chairmanship of the Policy Network, an international think-tank backed by Blair and Gerhard Schroder, is part of a broader effort by Labour's Great Communicator to rebrand himself as the party's Philosopher King. Perhaps in the same cause, he has published an updated version of his New Labour tract, The Blair Revolution, and a stream of sober, closely argued newspaper articles on subjects such as public spending, industrial relations, education policy and the euro. And, unlike many of the thinkers orbiting Downing Street, people still take notice of what Mandelson thinks: in the first six months of this year, his name appeared in more newspaper headlines than most members of the cabinet (as many of the reports, of course, relating his to latest putative career move, as his latest political pronouncement). What does all this sound and fury signify, I wonder, if he does not believe he can return to government? "That's what no one understands. They see all this activity and they don't understand." He says he's not sure himself, that he simply came to the conclusion that "for me writing a serious speech or an article is much more rewarding than what I could earn... I thought it might be different but it isn't. Perhaps it wouldn't be the same if people ignored me, or if I didn't get any attention for my views, or if I felt I couldn't make a speech and be listened to, but I've never found that and although out of government all I have is my words, my words remain very important to me." It is all a long way from the first dark days after his resignation over his alleged lobbying efforts for the Hinduja brothers who were seeking British citizenship. Back then, reeling with a combination of shock and a vague, giddy sense of liberation, rebuilding his political career seemed a wildly improbable idea. "You just have a tremendous sense of being on your own, that you have to rely on your own devices... Suddenly your diary is empty, the things that you were looking forward to doing, or the things that you weren't looking forward to doing, evaporate instantly." Somehow, he says, he managed to keep it together. Then, three days after his resignation, came the call that changed everything. Two of his former Cabinet Office officials rang to say that they could confirm his version of events. To add a Shakespearean touch to this plot twist, it emerged that one of them had been trying to contact him - and the prime minister's office - even as the Downing Street machine was shuffling him towards the gallows. "I thought then, 'I made a terrible mistake, I should have stayed, I should have fought I should have stood up for myself...' They rang the Cabinet Office, they rang No 10, they rang all the officials, they rang the machine but the machine either didn't want to know or was so confused it didn't know how to deal with them. When they talked to me on the Friday, I turned, I turned from a position of being quite reconciled to walking away from politics, accepting that my ministerial, and indeed my parliamentary career, were over because it had already been made clear to me that it would probably be a good idea if I didn't stand at the next election." Who told him that? He pauses just long enough to imply it was the prime minister before continuing: "It doesn't matter who... when they [the officials] spoke to me . . . all the fight came back into me." Later, I ask whether he thinks Blair has been a loyal friend. "He's been a good friend. He's helped me. He's sustained me. He's got me over the worst just as I would expect him to do because, more than anything else, he has a cast-iron decency to him. This whole situation has been almost as difficult for him as it has been for me and I would like to think that we have helped each other in coping with it." Mandelson is sitting in a small, glass-walled office in Hartlepool's modern civic centre. A woman in a nurse's uniform is telling him about her daughter's disastrous holiday to Lanzarote: first, she and her boyfriend had been burgled, then the boyfriend had been arrested by Spanish police, who suspected him of faking the original theft. "It's like one of those holidays from hell - you hear about them on TV but you don't expect them to happen." Mandelson assiduously notes down the details, sounds concerned and promises that his office will contact the British consul on the island. Earlier he has been through a similar routine with a squat man who has a problem with water-voles at the end of his garden, a 90-year-old woman who can't get a place in an old-age home, and a couple who think they are paying too much council tax for their mobile home. "Pretty much par for the course," Mandelson sighs as he heads home for a two-hour respite before his next engagement. It's been a fairly typical day in the constituency life of Peter Mandelson MP. It began with the opening of a Sure Start centre, part of a government initiative to provide childcare and other services to parents under the same roof. There he posed obligingly on a toy aeroplane for the photographer from the local paper, sang Bah Bah Black Sheep with a group of four-year-olds, cut an orange and purple ribbon (thoughtfully holding his position, as though in suspended animation, for a few extra seconds to help the photographers), and gave a brief speech about exemplary cooperation and "improving the life chances for the young in our town". Later he chaired a meeting of the Hartlepool Partnership - an umbrella group of the 30 or so people running agencies or major institutions in the town. After each official delivered his jargon-laden presentation - "the increasing focus is on the alignment of the strategy and action plans under the community partnership umbrella" - Mandelson was ready with an incisive question and a word or two of encouragement. Next to him, Stuart Drummond, the former mascot of the town's football team who was elected mayor last June, picked his fingernails and played with an elastic band, giving a passable impression of a Harry Enfield character. Mandelson holds the monkey mayor in thinly veiled - very thinly veiled - contempt. After the town's police commander announced his determination to reduce the area's shoplifting rate "to no more than twice the national average", Mandelson took a deep breath and, without making eye-contact, asked the mayor if he wanted to add anything. Drummond mumbled something into his chest. Perhaps because we still think of him as the southern apparatchik parachuted into a safe northern seat - an image reinforced in perpetuity by the apocryphal guacamole story - Mandelson seems surprisingly at ease in this down-at-heel former steel town where unemployment is twice the national average and Roy Hattersley was once rejected as a Labour candidate because his Sheffield roots qualified him as an outsider. Unlike his old boss, he doesn't modulate his (curiously posh) accent to minimise the audible culture gap. There was a genuine warmth towards him at the opening of the Sure Start centre that made his mugging at toddlers and serial baby-kissing seem somehow more genuine than a routine display of "retail politics". If the improbable alliance between town and politician was a somewhat provisional marriage of convenience during its early days, it was cemented last June by his emphatic re-election. "When you've tripped up politically, you go back to your base, you get another mandate and renew your political lease of life. I felt able, with the backing of the town and my electorate, to hold my head high in politics again. It restored my self-esteem and my confidence." If the call from his officials on the Friday following his resignation was a first turning point in his life after cabinet, this was a second: "Up until then I was on probation. I was very unsure of myself. You know, there were people who were looking for a great story on election night - those who stayed up for Portillo in 97, I felt, were staying up for Mandelson in 2001. And they didn't get the result they wanted." We are talking in the kitchen of Mandelson's constituency home, a cosy Victorian semi decorated with political momentos and family photographs. On one wall there's a framed spoof front page of the Guardian produced by the paper's political staff for his 40th birthday. On another there's a cartoon of Mandelson conducting a sullen old-Labour orchestra. Like the doctor who knows too much about the surgery he is about to undergo, Mandelson has a keen understanding of the journalist's need for "colour". "Had a good snoop around yet?" he asks after leaving me alone for a few minutes. "Have you seen the young Alastair Campbell? He's above the stairs with Neil Kinnock." He produces a bottle of Tyrconnell Irish whiskey - his favourite, he says. The label says: "Specially brewed by his friends in Ireland for the Right Honourable Peter Mandelson, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland 1999-2001." He pours two large measures and sprawls across an armchair. I tell him I am bemused by the animosity he seems to evoke in people. On one Sunday, a week or so earlier, one newspaper reported that Tony Booth, Cherie Blair's father loathed him, while another reported that Amicus leader Derek Simpson, given a choice between sharing a desert island with Margaret Thatcher and his fellow Labour party member, Mandelson, had chosen Thatcher. Suddenly a flash of anger crosses his face. "I've never met Derek Simpson in my life. He doesn't know me. And I think that Derek Simpson is on a learning curve. I think he is evolving and I should think he, in years to come, will be in a different place from where he is now." (Suggesting that someone is "on a learning curve" is a particularly Mandelsonian, velvet-gloved insult; earlier, when I ask how the "monkey mayor" is doing, he replies that he, too, is "on a learning curve".) I tell him I am bemused by the gap between his private persona (warm, funny, charming) and his public image (cold, scheming, ruthless). Why does he have quite so many enemies, even now that he is out of government? He talks about his uncompromising New Labour advocacy, about years of bruising battles to modernise the party, about the legacy of bitterness they inevitably left in the likes of Simpson and Booth. And then there's the particular animus (a closer relation of envy, perhaps) that derives from his perceived role as Blair's Rasputin, courtier-in-chief. "There will no doubt be some people who think that I've got too much influence, that I've had too much power, that it's an unaccountable power, that I'm a backroom boy who is able to pull the strings, that I was the man behind Kinnock and I was the man behind Blair, and they didn't like it. A lot of it is to do with what they read in the newspapers. I mean, people genuinely believe that I write the newspapers." Our conversation is interrupted by a phone call. The caller seems worried about something. Mandelson is comforting: "Tony was quite sort of positive about you this week." Afterwards I ask who was on the line. "No one," he snaps. It's a classic Mandelson moment: the casually flaunted access followed by the show of ostentatious discretion. Our conversation resumes. Mandelson is plainly frustrated by the longevity of his 80s image, by the way it has dogged his later political career. He feels people have forgotten what a mess the Labour party was in when he began his great modernising heave, forgotten that he had no choice back then but to play hard and mean. "All this stuff was born when I was communications director, when I really was chasing Militant, when I really was being thrown into battle against the Benns and the Livingstones and the Derek Hattons of this world, when I was at the cutting-edge of change in the party, and was uncompromising and didn't equivocate and didn't zigzag and I didn't grease around because I felt it was too important. And probably I also didn't think ahead. I didn't think that one day I would be a politician standing in my own right needing support, needing the political base that any politician requires. I didn't make that calculation. I wasn't thinking in personal terms. I wasn't thinking of myself as an MP, as a politician, as someone who needed to garner support in the parliamentary Labour party, who needed a base in cabinet, who needed to get a circle of friends around him. I just didn't think in those terms. And in pure political terms that's a failing. "If I could turn the clock back, perhaps I would be more muted, perhaps I would be the one who allowed everyone to leave a conversation with them thinking that I agreed with them, perhaps I would have been the one who everyone thought was on their side, but I wasn't that sort of politician." I wonder if the battles he had to fight back then - and the reputation he acquired in the process - had made it impossible ultimately for him to thrive as a top-table politician. He insists that they hadn't, that he had simply had to "climb over a higher bar, but I climbed over that bar". He is intensely proud of the achievements of his time in ministerial office, though amazingly his stints at the DTI and Hillsborough - his brief sorties from the shadows - totalled only 18 months. He recalls the time he had to go to the House of Commons to seek powers to dissolve the Northern Ireland assembly. It had been one of the toughest moments of his political life, acutely disappointing after all the hope created by the Good Friday agreement, but afterwards Tony Benn, no less, had come up to him and told him it was the best handling of a statement by a minister he could remember. "To those who say that I pull the strings or I'm good with the media or, you know, I'm good behind stage but not front of house, I say, when I was a minister, when I was tested, I didn't let people down. I did carry the day and I was able to navigate my way through some very difficult situations, but all the time I was doing so knowing that I carried this baggage with me from the past. It was almost as if I was having to doubly justify, to doubly perform, because I had a lot in the past to live down with people, with some people." He is talking more freely now than at any time in the four days (over three weeks) I have spent with him and I wonder if the whiskey is having an effect. He pours two more large ones. We talk more about the persistence of the Prince of Darkness image. I tell him some people have suggested to me that his sexuality has fed in, almost certainly unconsciously, to the demonology. Almost instantly, he clicks back into "politician on camera" mode: "I have absolutely no idea what people think and say and it's entirely a matter for them." Mandelson's homosexuality is a no-go area ringed with motion detectors and electric fencing. When Matthew Parris mentioned it on Newsnight, Mandelson memorably unleashed a broadside at the BBC so fierce that a memo was circulated round the corporation warning that "under no circumstances whatsoever should allegations about the private life of Peter Mandelson be repeated on any broadcast". The asiduousness with which Mandelson attempts to keep reference to his sexuality out of the public domain can seem slightly puzzling given both the widespread public awareness of his sexuality and his almost camp openness with a wide circle of acquaintances. A recent example of the kind of evasion he is prepared to deploy in that cause was the homepage entry of his website which declared: "It is always a relief to swap congested London for the calm of Hartlepool with my family." Might not the vigilance with which he has policed this perimeter have become counter-productive, creating the impression that he considered being gay a dark secret that had to be hidden? There is some evidence that Tony Blair takes this view; in his biography, Macintyre describes how after Mandelson's first resignation from government, the prime minister wrote a memo for him with several suggestions on how to rebuild his political career - one of them was that he should be open about his relationship with Reinaldo Avila da Silva. In fact, those close to him advance more nuanced arguments for his decision to keep the closet door publicly closed. He believes, they say, that any gay politician who publicly aknowedges his or her sexuality will come to be defined by it, as Alan Duncan has been, and that opening the door in any way to that area of his life would embolden the press to be still more intrusive. But when I press him on this, wondering if he has paid a price for his studied reticence, he pauses for several seconds then replies with an emphatic roadblock: "I regard my private life as my own. There is very little of it left. There is very little aspect of my life that hasn't been disseminated, dissected. You live with that. I don't complain about it. I don't cry about it. But what there is of it left I'll keep it that way thank you." Another strand of his identity that seems to have been almost airbrushed from the public Mandelson is his Jewish background. He's not technically Jewish - his mother was a gentile - but his father was. At least one person has pointed out to me the overlap between much of the negative imagery applied to Mandelson and some well-worn anti-semitic stereotypes. But Mandelson is having none of this. He doesn't really think of himself as Jewish, he says, except "when Israel is under attack or hard done by. Is that a bad thing to say? You see, I'm not Jewish, I wasn't brought up as Jewish, I was brought up in Christain assembly at school and in a church scout troop." But wasn't his father the advertising director of the Jewish Chronicle? "He wasn't very Jewish either. [He] never took me to a synagogue." Mandelson has begun changing into a more casual outfit for his dinner engagement - a speech at a fundraiser for a charity set up by a friend who lost a child. "Would it embarrass you if I changed my clothes? Would it shock you?" He's standing there in a shirt, socks and underpants; it's a piece of conspicuous intimacy reminiscent of Mo Mowlam's habit of removing her wig while chatting to journalists. I turn the conversation to his once famously busy social life. He insists the idea that he was ever a social butterfly - a favourite charge of some of his more hair-shirted fellow Labourites - was preposterous. "Rubbish, absolute rubbish, absolute rubbish. I was working like a dog for the election of the Labour party," he says, ennunciating each word slowly as though to absorb his irritation. "I mean, really, you think I had time to go out on the town? I got up in the morning very early and dealt with what had to be dealt with in the Labour party. I worked all day for Labour's election. I went to bed when I could, dog tired, and slept like a log." But to the extent that he ever had an active social life, he certainly doesn't have one now, he says. Why, I wonder? "I don't feel social, I don't feel..." He stops and asks: "Do you want to know a secret?" Then, in a stage whisper he mouths: "Nobody invites me any more." I wonder if he is happy. "I'm happy, yes, but not fulfilled," he declares. "I am on an even keel. I enjoy my life but I'm understretched. I love my constituency, I love being in parliament, I like doing what I can for my constituents. But could I do more? Look, when you've run a department of 7,000 civil servants, as I did at the DTI, or did what I did in Northern Ireland, day in, day out, you know, I have to admit my life is very different." The neatness of his self-analysis makes me wonder if he has seen a psychonalayst. He hasn't, he says, "but I suppose that when you have seen so much print swimming around you analysing you, telling you what you think, what you believe... it does make you wonder sometimes who you are, what motivates you, how you got into the position that you have. But it lasts for a few minutes. I'm not a self-indulgent person. If I'd been more preoccupied with myself, I wouldn't have made the mistakes I had." I ask what he thinks his weaknesses are and he begins listing them, apparently thinking as he goes rather than reeling off a sanitised off-the-shelf response. "I'm too categorical, too black and white, too tough with people in my personal dealings sometimes, when people leave me, they know where I stand but they're less sure I'm interested in what their views are. I'm too embattled - you give me an issue and I'll battle on it." He pauses for a few seconds: "I am what I am and I can't change. It would have been so much easier and simpler if I had been different. I don't know why I wasn't different. I don't know whether it was part of my experience, my upbringing, my chemistry, but I pick fights even when I don't mean to... even when I don't realise I am, I seem to be picking fights. And I can be warm and I love people and I can be funny and I can be relaxed, intensely relaxed, but then the next minute I'm reacting." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:38:07 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:38:07 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV5z-0005pK-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:38:07 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV53-0001tr-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:37:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV3u-0001ta-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:35:59 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9YBX05089 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:34:11 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9Y8N04891 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:34:08 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US economy: poverty rising Thread-Index: AcJlP/EzBpkKNNErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US economy: poverty rising Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:37:22 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:37:22 +0300 Whites join slide into poverty as US incomes fall Matthew Engel in Washington Thursday September 26, 2002 The Guardian The number of US citizens living in poverty has increased for the first time for eight years, according to official figures published yesterday. The census bureau said 32.9m were living below the poverty line, an increase of 1.3m, bringing the total to 11.7% of the population. Perhaps more tellingly for the White House six weeks before the mid-term elections, the median household income has also fallen, by 2.2%. The figures are the latest in a series of economic statistics which have ranged from bad to terrible for the Bush administration. Since George Bush entered office 20 months ago the Dow Jones index has fallen by a quarter, wrecking many pension plans, unemployment has risen by a third, and the budget surplus has lurched into deficit. All these are issues which resound across Middle America, and the president's Democrat opponents are desperate to talk about them in the election campaign, if they can change the subject from Iraq. "This [information] is a year old, so the reality now is probably worse," Wendell Primus, of the Centre on Budget and Policy Priorities, said. "If history repeats itself, poverty is likely to keep rising in the recession, with income also falling across the board." The official poverty line is an annual income of $18,104 (=A312,400) for a family of four. This is a crude measure, because actual poverty depends heavily on housing costs, which are far higher in the big cities. "The reality would depend very much on rent, which could form 40-50% of that sort of income in a city," Dr Primus said. "People are not as poor as the Third World, but in places like rural Tennessee the huts are pretty decrepit. At that level there is barely enough for the necessities of life." Poverty is especially prevelant in parts of Mr Bush's own state, Texas, and a BBC News night programme tonight will reveal the poorest town in the country, on the official figures, to be El Cenizo, near Laredo, on the Texas-Mexico border. El Cenizo, which has an official population of 3,500, has probably twice that number in reality because of the many illegal migrants in the area awaiting a deal between the US and Mexico to regularise their position. Francisco Montoya, an odd-job man, told the programme he was existing on about $200 a month plus $150 in food stamps to feed a family of five. "Life is very hard for those of us who don't have access to good jobs," his wife, Fausta, said. Despite the fierce climate the Montoyas' shack has no air conditioning, no heating and a leaking roof. None the less their car, which does not work, has a tattered US flag on it. Incomes are still substantially higher than across the border. The quality of life is not necessarily better: El Cerizo has no emergency services. "We are a forgotten city," said the mayor, Flora Barton. Analysis of the bureau's figures, however, shows that although the poverty rate for non-Hispanic whites is still about a third of those for Hispanic and Black Americans, which remain above 21%, the biggest increase occurred among white families. The evidence of a growing gap between the richest Americans and the poorest is further electoral ammunition for the Democrats. John Sweeney, president of the AFL-CIO labour federation, said it was "a shameful commentary on this nation... while executives cut deals to pay themselves millions in perks." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:40:08 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:40:08 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV7w-0005pZ-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:40:08 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV70-0001xL-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:39:10 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV56-0001uE-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:37:12 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9ZPA06454 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:35:25 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9ZLN06314 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:35:21 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Germany: coalition negotiations Thread-Index: AcJlQBxABpkKOtErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Germany: coalition negotiations Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:38:35 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:38:35 +0300 German Greens start to reap poll rewards John Hooper in Berlin Thursday September 26, 2002 The Guardian Gerhard Schr=F6der's Social Democrats opened talks with the Greens yesterday on the shape and programme of their new coalition government. The Greens, who played a crucial role in securing victory for the centre-left at last Sunday's general election, went into the negotiations with a far stronger hand than four years ago when the 'red-green' experiment was launched after the ousting of Helmut Kohl. It was unclear whether the Greens would get a fourth seat in the cabinet. There have been indications that they might prefer to secure more power and funding for the ministries they already control. Joschka Fischer, the party's most experienced and charismatic figure, is certain to remain in the foreign ministry. And no signs of imminent change have emerged at either the environment ministry, headed by J=FCrgen Trittin, or the food, farming and consumer protection 'super-ministry', run by Renate K=FCnast. The first likely sticking point for the coalition may be military conscription. With a majority of just nine seats, the two parties must reach a clear understanding to forestall a backbench rebellion that could bring down the government. The Greens want to start building a volunteer army. But the Social Democrat (SPD) defence minister, Peter Stuck, was reported yesterday to be insisting that the coalition pact include a commitment to retain conscription. No official deadline has been set for the conclusion of negotiations, but both sides were aiming to finish before October 18, when the Greens begin a special delegate conference at which the rank and file membership could endorse the coalition pact. In an interview with Stern magazine yesterday, the governor of Lower Saxony, Sigmar Gabriel, an influential figure in the SPD, said a central aim of the new government should be to get non-wage labour costs below 40%. The burden of employers' social security contributions holds down profits and deters bosses from hiring staff Unemployment, running at almost 10%, was a central theme of the election, which Mr Schr=F6der came within a whisker of losing. Mr Gabriel, who is close to the chancellor, said the result of the election was a "yellow card" for both the parties in government. =B7 The US defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, denied snubbing the German defence minister, Peter Stuck, by walking out before his speech at a Nato meeting on Tuesday. He also took a swipe at Berlin's efforts to mend the rift with the US over Mr Schr=F6der's anti-war rhetoric, saying : "We do have a saying in America: if you're in a hole, stop digging." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:42:11 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:42:11 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV9v-0005pn-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:42:11 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV8z-0001xm-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:41:13 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV5s-0001uL-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:38:01 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9aDh07601 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:36:13 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9aCN07539 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:36:12 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK eurozone membership: US view Thread-Index: AcJlQDsXBpkKQNErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK eurozone membership: US view Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:39:27 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:39:27 +0300 Greenspan says City has thrived outside euro Charlotte Denny Thursday September 26, 2002 The Guardian Alan Greenspan said yesterday that the launch of the euro has failed to dent London's position as one of the world's two pre-eminent financial centres. Anti-euro campaigners seized on his remarks as proof that the world's most powerful central banker believes Britain is thriving outside the single currency. Speaking at the opening of the refurbished Treasury building, Mr Greenspan said predictions that Frankfurt would steal a chunk of the City's business had not come to pass. "London has stayed on top in the provision of financial services despite the emergence of the euro, which some expected would divert a significant share of foreign exchange trading to a single centre on the continent. "London remains, with New York, at the top of the world's financial pyramid." "Alan Greenspan is right. The City is thriving outside the euro but giving up the pound would put this success at risk," said George Eustice, campaign director of the No campaign. Pro-euro groups said joining would enhance the City's role. The impact of membership on the square mile is one of Gordon Brown's five entry tests. Mr Greenspan is in London to receive an honorary knighthood for contributing to economic stability. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:44:11 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:44:11 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVBr-0005q1-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:44:11 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVAr-0001yJ-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:43:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uV8k-0001xo-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:40:59 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9dB411299 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:39:11 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9d8N11049 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:39:08 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Britain/US split: Germany Thread-Index: AcJlQKN+BpkKRtErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Britain/US split: Germany Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:42:22 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:42:22 +0300 Dunno who this guy is, don't go for his pseudo-epic romantic prose style, but it is an expression of a growing body of opinion within the UK state apparatus (broadly conceived) vis a vis Germany and the US.=20 Enlist in Schr=F6der's army Germany has shaken off its guilt and accepted its destiny: to be a force for good outside its own frontiers Hywel Williams Thursday September 26, 2002 The Guardian How should we deal with Germany? The German question is and always will be the story of Europe itself, for the continent's largest single nation is also its heart and its destiny. Finding an answer has been the diplomatic preoccupation and the political fear driving other Europeans ever since the Hohenstaufen dynasty broke out of Swabia and established an imperial style in the 12th century. Europe's history is just one long knock-on Teutonic effect. It was outsiders - whether impressed or terrified - who framed the German question's terms. But Germans themselves, from Goethe to Grass, have formulated their own interrogation. There's an anxiety that haunts the national soul and asks: what does it mean to be a good German? The country has always luxuriated in exploration of national identity - a game which the newly introspective English now play as well. At least the general election has thrown up one answer. Goodness here means turning Berlin into a rock on the Bushite path to Baghdad. Gerhard Schr=F6der's victory re-states the German question as a common and positive European one. His opposition to the American imperial adventurism has brought into focus a strong German identity - one which serves peace not war. To the German problem of the 20th century's first half, the century's second half threw up another difficulty. The militarism yielded to the disabling guilt of the defeated. De-militarised and then Nato-fied, Germany's western half went for the gold of an economic miracle - and a quiet democratic dullness. Pacifism became a dominant strand - and this itself built on an old German tradition of quietism in politics. Obedience was owed to the powers that be - meanwhile it was best to lead a quiet life. Order was all. It's the argument used by Luther when he urged the German princes to put down the peasant's revolt as ruthlessly as possible. Even to Germans themselves the idea that Germany could be a force for good outside her own frontiers seemed suspect. This was a country that - hanging its head in shame - punched way below its weight. Its stance was that of a self-confessed Frankenstein's monster, which had to ask for its own chains lest it lash out. This view of Germany's need for self-imposed tutelage was very much that of Helmut Kohl and it worked as one element of that Franco-German motor which was the EU's rationale. Reunification changed everything. On the right the critique now is of Germany's economic strains - its problems with pensions and restrictive labour laws. But, culturally speaking, Germany has reawakened with a healthy political structure. And it has reclaimed the German liberal tradition in a way that is assertive and purposeful rather than quietist. Germany is now the real challenger to the Blair picture of Europeans as America's dependent cousins. The Mitterand-Kohl partnership was a powerful driving force - and one that saw Britain on the European margins. It was an alliance of two flawed giants who had lived with war. But the Chirac-Schr=F6der relationship has nothing of the same warmth or intensity of purpose. Schr=F6der is strikingly free of war guilt, while Chirac's readiness to play the American game shows his readiness to embrace the dominant force of the moment. Mr Blair will have his war. But those who are sickened by his shallow ease with mass destruction should enrol in Schr=F6der's army. And, in doing, so we can hark back as well as look forward. "How dreadful the state of Paris is! Surely that Sodom and Gomorrah as Papa called it deserves to be crushed": Queen Victoria's letter to her daughter Vicky, crown princess of Prussia, may not have been in the best of taste as Paris lay crushed by the Prussian army in 1870-1. But it is a reminder of how - until the 20th-century deflection of the current - it was a sense of German affinities that ruled English hearts and minds. France was the country with a tradition of military takeover and political instability, while Prussia was an English-Victorian mirror: Protestant, cultured, industrious. Liberals in particular admired the Bismarckian settlement for its example of an activist state at work with its welfare reforms. It was an admiration that survived the 1871 unification - and the arrival in united Germany of the Catholic south. Mr Blair will use all his black arts of persuasion to bring Schr=F6der on board. But Schr=F6der has all the look about him of a landesvater - a politician whose fatherland has found a leader. That slim majority was gained by a kind of magic as he worked the issue of the German flood. And he has became the spokesman for a common European order, one which is now threatened by the Blair-Bush axis. The German question of old has now been replaced by the American question - one unstable empire has displaced another. Mr Blair finds his leader across the ocean; the rest of us will look beyond the Rhine. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:46:43 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:46:43 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVEJ-0005s9-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:46:43 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVCn-0001yq-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:45:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVAv-0001yg-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:43:13 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9fQX14327 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:41:26 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9fON14261 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:41:24 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: World Bank: aid policy Thread-Index: AcJlQPUkBpkKTNErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] World Bank: aid policy Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:44:39 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:44:39 +0300 Ending the unilateral approach to aid By James Wolfensohn Financial Times: September 26 2002 In developing countries, foreign aid arrives with the best intentions but often with too little co-ordination among donors. The result can be a raw deal for both the recipients of aid and the taxpayers who fund it. Take the west African nation of Guinea, where the cost of building a primary school can range from $130 to as much as $878 a square metre, depending on the donor country managing the project. For the same amount, one donor could build seven times more schools than another. Development and finance ministers arriving in Washington this weekend for the World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings will confront this issue as they discuss a new Bank study that calls on the donor community to make foreign aid more effective by improving the local, national and global co-ordination of their efforts. In recent years, actions by donors and the international community have given rise to a new sense of optimism for worldwide development efforts. Both rich and poor countries have signed up to a common vision of halving world poverty by 2015 by reaching the Millennium Development Goals. And there are many signs that donors are making aid more effective by improving co-ordination of often fragmented programmes. In Bosnia, donors cut in half the cost of building a bridge through better knowledge-sharing about procurement practices. In Ghana, a common donor approach sparked crucial improvements in the country's primary healthcare programme. In India, a united donor front on important education policy issues led to big reforms in teacher training and financing. More plans are afoot to increase the impact of donor programmes. In Brazil, the World Bank has joined other donors in pooling health efforts. And in Mali and Uganda, donors recently agreed to joint supervision of projects. Yet despite these efforts, the donor community has a long way to go in reducing the burden of varying timetables and reporting required by different donor agencies. As the Bank study points out, too many rich countries are using their aid programmes to satisfy domestic interests, tying aid to national procurement, or are "planting flags" on isolated projects in the developing world, only to see their foreign assistance used less effectively because of a lack of co-ordination. Each donor country holding its own national account for foreign aid is one thing but failing to co-ordinate with other donors is another. The end result is a country such as Tanzania, which until a few years ago had to fill in 2,400 quarterly reports and host 1,000 visits a year from different donors. Today, there are more than 63,000 aid projects under way in the developing world, often with different procurement policies, different evaluation standards and different environmental and social standards. This places an unacceptable burden on developing countries that lack the administrative capacity to handle these demands. If donors can align their efforts and cut down on this fragmentation of programmes, the result will yield many millions of aid dollars that could be put to better use building schools and health clinics and providing clean water for poor communities. If, as a global donor community, we can get our act together, we shall serve so much better those people in developing countries who now want to lead their own development efforts. The reality is that not enough of these projects are co-ordinated in a way that might add up to a meaningful development strategy. Instead, we have a kind of development unilateralism where 10 different donors may be running education projects in one country but none is building roads. Often, donors run parallel projects even in the same district - fragmenting assistance into multiple high-cost aid boutiques. This fragmentation of donors' efforts has long plagued the effectiveness of aid. Many of the failures blamed on borrowing countries in fact represent the failure of donors to co-ordinate their efforts. If the international community aims to meet the Millennium Development Goal of halving global poverty by 2015, we must all improve the effectiveness of our aid by improving co-ordination among donor agencies, multilateral institutions, civil society and the private sector. We must take off the flags, stop the politicisation, overcome donors' prejudices and stereotypes and accept that no one has a monopoly on experience or skills in implementation. This is even more important now that the US and Europe have declared a commitment to increasing their level of aid. Development multilateralism will also achieve better development results. Last spring, a programme was launched to fast-track 18 developing countries with plans in place for universal primary education - one that would mean about 17m children having the chance to go to school for the first time. The Education for All Fast-Track Initiative is everything donors have asked for - based on sound national poverty strategies and education reforms, measurable, accountable and focused on results. But it also requires that donors sign up to a common framework and a common approach. Taking the flags off programmes may prove daunting even for those who press for development results. Yet we owe it to the poor to do better than that. At the same time, we owe it to taxpayers in rich countries to make aid less about turf and planting flags and more about reaching the poor in the most effective way possible. The writer is president of the World Bank From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:53:11 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:53:11 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVKZ-0005uL-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:53:11 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVEj-0001zN-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:47:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVCQ-0001ys-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:44:46 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9gxL15881 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:42:59 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9gvN15819 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:42:57 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: EU stability and growth pact Thread-Index: AcJlQSxoBpkKUtErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] EU stability and growth pact Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:46:12 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:46:12 +0300 Brussels plan upsets smaller countries By George Parker in Strasbourg, Ian Bickerton in Amsterdam and Tony Major in Frankfurt Financial Times: September 26 2002 Anger erupted across Europe on Wednesday over plans to allow France, Germany and Italy an extra two years to balance their budgets, in one of the most serious disputes since the launch of the euro. Some smaller EU countries, which have already taken painful measures to eliminate their deficits, are upset over proposals to give the euro's three biggest economies until 2006 to do the same. They claimed the European Commission plan showed that there was one rule for the big countries and another for the rest, and that it damaged the budgetary discipline underpinning the euro. Although markets have so far reacted calmly, many believe the euro could be damaged if respect for the budgetary rules in the EU's stability and growth pact breaks down. On Wednesday France published its budget for 2003, with tax cutting plans that clearly break its commitment to achieve a balanced budget in 2004. Italy's budget next Monday is also expected to signal a postponement in the target date for scrapping its deficit. Although both countries are suffering from sluggish growth, many EU members believe Paris and Rome are flouting the stability pact by pushing through election pledges to cut taxes. The Netherlands, Austria and Spain were among those criticising the Commission's plan to delay until 2006 their target dates for balanced budgets. Hans Hoogervorst, Dutch finance minister, said there was a danger that the closing date for balancing budgets would become "a moving target", subject to further change at the whim of larger member states. Karl-Heinz Grasser, Austrian finance minister, said: "A 'two-class' system with large euro states that don't have budget discipline and small states that maintain their discipline would not be acceptable." Spain said the decision should not have been made before consultation with member states. The issue is likely to lead to a heated discussion at the next meeting of EU finance ministers on October 8. The danger, recognised privately by the Commission, is that the leeway given to the biggest EU economies could result in other countries concluding that it is all right to relax fiscal discipline. The result could be that the European Central Bank is forced to raise interest rates. The markets believe a relaxation of the target date for cutting deficits would allow some governments to reflate their economies. It is understood that Romano Prodi, Commission president, personally ordered the retreat to 2006, fearing that it would be impossible to defend the 2004 date in the face of intense pressure from the bigger EU economies. "It was clear that some of the countries' budgets were slipping," said one Prodi ally. "What would have been the point of us being the last men standing, only to be washed away further down the line?" Mr Prodi and Pedro Solbes, EU monetary affairs commissioner, have proposed measures to ensure the new deadline is respected, demanding that each of the four laggards makes annual cuts in its structural deficit of at least 0.5 per cent. The main rules of the stability pact - that countries must run balanced budgets in the medium term and must not exceed a deficit of 3 per cent of GDP - remain intact. Portugal is so far the only country to have breached the deficit ceiling. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:55:13 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:55:13 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVMX-0005uZ-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:55:13 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVLV-00021y-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:54:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVKD-000214-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:52:49 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9p2i27407 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:51:02 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9p1N27345 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:51:01 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: EU integration struggles: CAP Thread-Index: AcJlQkzMBpkKX9ErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] EU integration struggles: CAP Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:54:16 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:54:16 +0300 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR: CAP is something we can be proud of By Herve Gaymard Financial Times; Sep 23, 2002 >From Mr Herv=FD Gaymard and others. Sir, Certain critics blame many of Europe's difficulties - and the world's - on the common agricultural policy. The media often take these criticisms on board without appropriate detachment. The CAP is accused of encouraging overproduction. This is not fair. Butter mountains are things of the past. The CAP has been able to control production and at the same time allow ever-increasing levels of imports. The European Union is a big importer of agri-food products. We are far from being "fortress Europe". Storage, when it occurs, is for strictly sanitary reasons or for dealing with limited cyclical situations. It is also claimed that the CAP , with its emphasis on production, encourages pollution. Let us not forget that, when Europe adopted the model in the 1960s, it was primarily to feed the population of a continent that was not self-sufficient. Production for its own sake is something else. Improvement of Europe's competitiveness came at this price. But today rational agricultural practices are developing and it is more than 10 years since the EU developed agri-environmental measures, confirmed by decisions taken in the context of Agenda 2000. Since the 1992 reform, followed by Agenda 2000, the changeover to sustainable agriculture has been steady, maintaining market competitiveness and contributing to the protection of the rural environment, while seeking to respond better to consumer demands. It has also been said that the CAP was responsible for the BSE (mad cow disease) crisis. In reality, it was a lack of, rather than excess, European policy that favoured its spread. Quality has continued to improve over recent decades. Food is safer now than 20 years ago. It is consumer reaction that has become stronger and that is good. It is also widely asserted that the CAP costs Europe too much. But the financial framework agreed in Berlin has been largely respected and support for agriculture amounts to less than 1 per cent of total public expenditure by the EU and member states, compared with 1.5 per cent in the US. Some also claim that the CAP is responsible for causing hunger in developing countries. Nothing could be further from the truth. Agriculture in some of these countries, particularly in Africa, is primarily concerned with promoting self-sufficiency in food. This is seriously undermined by destruction of traditional agriculture in favour of cash crops, which encourages an increase in imports and in the indebtedness of these states. Production of crops such as cocoa and coffee depends on the markets for primary products, which have nothing to do with the CAP. Let us stop the false accusations. Let us be justifiably proud of the progress made over the last 40 years. Together we can build a future for our agriculture. We wish to make a constructive contribution that respects the programme agreed in Berlin. First, let us tackle the problems that exist in a number of production systems and correct the imbalances. Let us also reaffirm that farmers should be able to live on the price paid for their products and to absorb the costs arising from environmental requirements, food safety and food quality. Then let us reconcile farmers and society, a task that needs sufficient numbers of contented producers with confidence in the future to ensure the economic balance of all our territories and to maintain the diversity of our landscapes. Last, let us put in place an ambitious policy for rural development and agri-environmental incentives that is less bureaucratic and more effective. Above all, let us be proud of building together an agricultural policy that meets our vision for our European civilisation. This is what we call our European model of agriculture, as validated in Berlin. For us, agricultural products are more than marketable goods. They are the fruits of a love of the land that has developed over many generations. For us, Europe could never be a fortress isolated from the rest of the world. Europe should be proud of its model of rural civilisation, which it should do more to explain and share with others. It has been able to show the way through its "Everything but Arms" initiative, which other countries would do well to copy. Farmers must not become the "variable adjustment" of a dehumanised world. We see them as full participants in our society. Yes, our ambition for Europe is a modern agriculture in which people and the land will play a part. Only by respecting these principles can we give tomorrow's enlarged Europe the agricultural policy it needs. Fernand Boden Miguel Arias Canete Armando Jos=FD Cordeiro Sevinate Pinto Herv=FD Gaymard Jos=FD Happart Wilhelm Molterer Joe Walsh The above are ministers of agriculture for, respectively, Luxembourg, Spain, Portugal, France, Wallonia (Belgium), Austria and the Republic of Ireland ----- LEADER: EU farm folly Financial Times; Sep 24, 2002 Diehard defenders of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy have long lived in a world of their own. Now, it appears, they inhabit another planet. That is the only charitable explanation for the recent apologia for the CAP written by seven EU farm ministers and published in the FT and other European newspapers. The French-led initiative aims to rally opposition to European Commission proposals to reallocate - but not reduce - farm spending. However, its arguments are so flimsy and muddled, and its factual misrepresentations so egregious, that it seems likely to have the reverse of the intended effect. The authors say farm support has a bigger share of public expenditure in the US than in the EU. The comparison is flawed. Not only do farm subsidies still eat up almost half the EU budget; much of the CAP 's cost is in inflated prices to consumers. When these are included, EU support to farmers, as a proportion of gross domestic product, is twice the US level. The ministers claim permanent EU food "mountains" are a thing of the past. It is true the decade-old McSharry reforms went some way to tackle the problem by paying some farmers not to produce. However, the reforms did not end structural surpluses, notably of dairy products and sugar. The EU's "solution" is to export its surpluses at heavily subsidised prices, depressing markets elsewhere, above all in developing nations. Every reputable study has found that ending the practice would increase farmers' incomes in poor countries. For the ministers to confuse the damage inflicted by EU dumping with third world hunger, then to pin the blame on poor countries for daring to produce cash crops, is a breathtaking distortion. In truth, the CAP is an extravagant folly that neither Europe nor the rest of the world can afford. It is a serious obstacle to EU enlargement, to the Doha trade round and to global economic development. It has also failed to meet even its own stated goals, enriching big farmers and agribusinesses at the expense of the small producers it is popularly supposed to help. Inexplicably, opponents of the Commission's reform proposals appear bent on making things even worse. The proposals would switch more spending from production aids into rural development - a policy that has been found to raise farmers' incomes by twice as much as price supports. Of course, Brussels' plan falls far short of the radical liberalisation EU agriculture urgently needs. But the farm ministers' refusal to recognise even what is in their constituents' interests raises disturbing questions about their grasp on reality. Perhaps it really is true that those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first send mad. ----- Fischler defends farm reforms By Michael Mann, Brussels Financial Times; Sep 24, 2002 Franz Fischler, the European Union's farm commissioner, yesterday hit back at a group of countries opposed to his blueprint for reforming the Common Agricultural Policy. Mr Fischler said he shared the view that the CAP had achieved "outstanding results" and should not be held responsible for problems such as third-world poverty and environmental damage. However, he urged ministers to act now to adapt the CAP to the numerous challenges it faces. On Monday, seven European ministers published a letter in the FT rejecting the myriad criticisms of the policy - which costs the EU more than EUR40bn (=FD26bn, $39.3bn) a year - and putting down a clear marker of opposition to Mr Fischler's plans for radical CAP reform. "We should not miss this opportunity," Mr Fischler told the monthly meeting of EU farm ministers. "We must not wait until events overtake us and the scope which we have gets tighter." Pointing to global trade liberalisation talks, the approaching enlargement of the EU and the renegotiation of the EU budget after 2006, Mr Fischler said it would be harder to guarantee the future of the CAP if ministers did not take the chance for reform offered by the radical proposals he unveiled in July. His plans have won broad support from a group of mainly northern member states, who fear the cost of subsidies could spiral out of control when the EU expands in 2004. However, the rightwing French government has dug in its heels, insisting there is no need for reform before 2006 when the EU's budget is up for renegotiation. Yesterday, Herv=FD Gaymard, French farm minister, claimed the letter had merely been an attempt to set out a "general vision" for the CAP, and had nothing to do with the current debate over the review of the policy. Mr Fischler's plans would sever the link between direct subsidies to farmers and what they produce, force farmers to meet tighter quality and environmental standards and gradually skim off 20 per cent of direct subsidy payments into a rural development fund. No single farmer could receive more than EUR300,000 in aid. ----- LETTERS TO THE EDITOR: Taxed three times over By Graham Wynne Financial Times; Sep 25, 2002 >From Mr Graham Wynne. Sir, How disappointing that seven European agriculture ministers fail to see the problems caused by the common agricultural policy. They make scant reference to the environmental impact of the CAP's outdated approach. Environmental payments account for only 7 per cent of CAP budgets: hardly a "changeover to sustainable agriculture". No wonder farmland bird populations have crashed, agricultural groundwater abstraction exceeds recharge rates in southern Europe and 16 per cent of Europe's land is eroded. Farmers wishing to protect the environment frequently have to do so at their own expense, and all too often the taxpayer picks up the bill for the consequences of unsustainable farming policies. Unless farming ministers support reforms that will deliver a greener, less bureaucratic and more equitable CAP , we will continue to face declining wildlife, bankrupt farmers, and challenges from a population tired of paying three times for the CAP: once in taxes, once at the till, and once more for environmental damage. Graham Wynne, Chief Executive, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Sandy, Bedfordshire, UK ----- LETTERS TO THE EDITOR: Ministers must be more open to CAP changes By Karl Erik Olsson Financial Times; Sep 26, 2002 >From Karl Erik Olsson MEP. Sir, Seven European Union agriculture ministers are proud of the common agricultural policy (Letters, September 23) and deny the need for reform. I fully agree that the CAP has been in many respects successful. However, I also take the view that it is no longer in touch with today's market and production realities. To suggest that the CAP is not responsible for overproduction and problems in developing countries is telling part of the story. A small amount of overproduction on a large domestic market makes for a significant distortion on the relatively small world market. But developing countries need both export markets and good prices. A transmissible disease such as BSE (mad cow disease) is not caused by a policy. But a policy focused primarily on producers and quantity induces the whole industry to pay too little attention to quality and safety. Therefore the focus has to be switched to consumers and to quality. "Food is more than marketable goods," the ministers state. That is indeed correct but society also has a role to play in defining the kind of food that is in daily demand throughout the EU. It can never be totally left to the market. If the CAP, as it was explicitly intended to do, increases production, it also encourages increased use of fertilisers and pesticides and causes increased run-off of nitrates and phosphates into water sources. We need to find a way to move towards integrated production where the negative environmental impact can be minimised while the sustainable production of raw materials for food, fuel and fibres is maximised on a more balanced global market. Let us be proud of the progress made by the CAP but now we have to realise that time has changed and so must the policy. Constructive contributions are needed from all parts of the political spectrum. Production support must be reduced but farmers should be paid for the work they do to maintain the natural and cultural environment and to preserve our European rural landscape. Globalisation is here to stay and we shall all be more and more dependent on the world market. To help developing countries, and for our own sake, we must, together with big players such as the US, cease distorting the world market. Enlargement of the EU is a historic challenge. It must not fail. Agriculture is even more important in the candidate countries where the production potential per capita is much higher than in the 15. Fairer World Trade Organisation rules will give us all the chance to sell our produce on a properly functioning world market. This will also improve the food supply for the world's growing population. Our ministerial friends would serve their EU consumers and farmers better if they were more open to future changes in the CAP. Karl Erik Olsson, (Former Swedish Minister of Agriculture) European Parliament 1047 Brussels, Belgium From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:55:16 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:55:16 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVMa-0005uh-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:55:16 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVGj-0001zu-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:49:13 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVFD-0001zk-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:47:39 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9jp518770 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:45:52 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9jkN18389 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:45:46 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Germany & the imperialist chain: Deutsche Bank Thread-Index: AcJlQZFVBpkKWdErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Germany & the imperialist chain: Deutsche Bank Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:49:01 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:49:01 +0300 There is a better way to manage debt crises By Josef Ackermann Financial Times: September 26 2002 The world has got better at preventing financial crises. Governments have improved data transparency, emerging market countries have strengthened their debt management and the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are now better equipped to assess financial sector stability. But crisis prevention is not enough, as the financial collapse in Argentina makes clear. Better crisis management is also needed. Deciding on the best way forward should be a priority at this weekend's IMF annual meeting. The private sector plays its part in crisis resolution. Of course, private investors must bear the consequences of their own investment decisions. But to resolve debt crises effectively, we need procedures for intensive dialogue between debtor countries and creditors. Although the IMF is usually involved, debt restructuring must ultimately be agreed between those two parties. For the borrower to impose conditions is unacceptable. Debt restructuring must be orderly and quick. This is in the interests of both borrowers and creditors. However, the right tools are required, in particular collective action clauses in bond contracts. This is central to the contractual approach to debt restructuring and has the support of the Institute of International Finance and the Group of Seven leading industrial nations. Collective action clauses, which under English law have been incorporated into bonds since the end of the 19th century, are a market-based instrument for overcoming obstacles to debt rescheduling. There is now a consensus that such clauses should become the global market standard. This responds to a fundamental shift away from syndicated loans towards bonds in emerging market debt. As the use of bonds has grown, the number, diversity and anonymity of creditors have grown. As a result, it has become much more difficult to co-ordinate divergent interests, making delays to debt restructuring more likely. The shift to bonds also increases the risk that individual creditors, such as "vulture funds", will hold up debt restructuring by taking legal action. A delay will hit a debtor country's credit rating and depress bond prices further. In practice, these problems have proved surmountable; recent debt restructuring exercises had participation rates of more than 90 per cent of creditors. Still, the multiplicity of investors and the potential for litigation create too much uncertainty. Collective action clauses would help tackle this problem by making possible a majority debt rescheduling agreement that was binding on all bondholders. They provide certainty in cases where debt restructuring is unavoidable. Creditors benefit from an orderly procedure, while borrowers can prevent the crisis from deteriorating further - and for everyone the whole process is shorter. Governments and international financial institutions generally agree that collective action clauses have advantages. And yet they are also working on a kind of international bankruptcy law for governments, the so-called sovereign debt restructuring mechanism. The IMF and some G7 governments are devoting considerable effort to developing proposals outlined recently by Anne Krueger, the IMF's deputy managing director. However, collective action clauses would be just as effective. It is now up to the private sector to flesh out precisely how collective action clauses could work in practice. We also need to ensure that they are quickly adopted around the world. The faster this happens, the sooner the majority of debt outstanding will include collective action clauses. Academic studies suggest that governments with a good credit rating would not see the terms on which they borrow deteriorate as a result of collective action clauses. Still, borrowers appear reluctant to accept the use of such clauses as a binding market standard. All advanced countries should agree to include collective action clauses in future bond contracts, following the example of the members of the European Union. That would help turn them into a market standard. There is widespread agreement on the usefulness of collective action clauses. Governments and international financial institutions cannot afford to waste any more time. The writer is chairman of the group executive committee of Deutsche Bank From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 03:58:13 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:58:13 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVPR-0005uy-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:58:13 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVOP-000251-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:57:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVMw-00024s-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:55:38 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9rpd30180 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:53:51 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9rnN30118 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:53:49 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Pakistan: following Ataturk model? Thread-Index: AcJlQrDYBpkKZNErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Pakistan: following Ataturk model? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:57:03 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:57:03 +0300 Musharraf wrestles with a Turkish solution By K Gajendra Singh Asia Times, September 26 2002 At his very first press conference after taking over as Pakistan's chief executive on October 12, 1999, General Pervez Musharraf spotted some journalists from Turkey. Musharraf, speaking in fluent Turkish, told them he was a great admirer of Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic and its first president. "As a model, Kemal Ataturk did a great deal for Turkey. I have his biography. We will see what I can do for Pakistan." Not only is he more at home with Turkish than Pakistan's national language, Urdu, Musharraf also admires Turkey's generals and the country's political model, having spent his most impressionable school years in the early 1950s in Ankara, where his father was posted as a junior diplomat. Ataturk's legend of forging a new, vibrant, modern and secular Turkey out of the ashes of the decaying deadwood of the Ottoman Empire left an indelible mark on young Pervez, as evidenced by his remarks at the press conference and his subsequent actions as leader of Pakistan. However, following his statements lauding Ataturk, the Jamaat-i-Islami, the largest of Pakistan's religious parties, immediately expressed its opposition to the secular ideology of Kemalism being used to buttress Musharraf's position. As a result, Musharraf now also highlights the aborted vision for Pakistan of Qaid-e-Azam Mohammed Ali Jinnah, the country's founding father and first leader after independence in 1947. Early days Pervez Musharraf was born on August 11, 1943, in an old haveli (mansion) in Neharvali Street behind the Golcha cinema in Delhi. When he was four years old his family - mother and father and two brothers (his father hugging a box stuffed with thousands of rupees) - migrated to Karachi in the new Pakistan soon after it won independence from Britain in August, 1947. Non-Punjabi speaking immigrants from India (Urdu was the home language of the Musharrafs) are now mostly concentrated in the ghettoes of Karachi and nearby Hyderabad, and are known as Mohajirs (a name preferred by them to that of "refugee") and they form over 8 percent of the population. They have been openly discriminated against by the ruling Punjabi elite and have, therefore, established a political organization of Urdu-speaking migrants, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), in Karachi, whose leader, Altaf Hussain, now lives in London. Starting with president Iskender Mirza, who was exiled by General Ayub Khan after the 1958 coup, the tradition of exiling political leaders has been kept up. Former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif are the latest examples. The Mohajirs, led by the Karachi-born Jinnah of the Ismaili Bohra community, who built up his legal practice and political career in Bombay, now Mumbai, were primarily responsible for the creation of Pakistan. Being generally better educated, they had formed the ruling group in Pakistan's then capital city of Karachi before the new capital and power center was built up in the north in Islamabad in the heartland of the Punjabis, who form about 60 percent of the population. After a stay of six years in Ankara, where Pervez learned to speak and write Turkish fluently, he completed his further education in English medium schools in Karachi and Lahore. He joined the Pakistan Military Academy in 1962 and finished second in the class after Quli Khan. The military has always been a coveted profession in Pakistan, but its officer class has traditionally been dominated by Punjabis, with the Mohajirs actively discriminated against. Nevertheless, Musharraf proved himself loyal and diligent, especially with regard to Pakistan's anti-India policy. Other members of the Musharraf family have sought greener pastures, though. Except for his married daughter, Ayla, an architect, who lives in Karachi, the oldest brother, Javed, is an economist with the International Fund for Agricultural Development in Rome. Another brother, Dr Naved Musharraf, is based in Illinois, US, and is married to a Filipino. Musharraf's son, Bilal, an actuary, is settled in Boston, US, and even his father and mother, who passed away a few months after Musharraf took power, had become naturalized US citizens. Raised by parents who were moderately religious, modern and almost secular in outlook, and well educated (his mother had a masters degree in literature from Delhi and had worked for the International Labor Organization in Karachi), Pervez was reinforced in these tendencies during his Ankara stay. Outgoing and extrovert, Musharraf is a caring family man, but somewhat authoritarian. After a normal retirement as a lieutenant-general, Musharraf would have perhaps divided his time between Pakistan and the US. Even now, when on official visits, he spends time with Bilal in Boston, while still utilizing the time to promote Pakistan. Destiny's wheel But destiny had other plans for Musharraf. Two things happened that catapulted him to the top of the heap. A thoughtless and erratic prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, who twice came into power in the musical chairs with Benazir Bhutto - conducted by the Pakistan military after the air crash death of dictator General Zia ul-Haq in 1988 - started to go haywire after his 1997 election victory. After winning a two-thirds majority, despite an abysmal turnout of less than 30 percent, Sharif amended the constitution, stripping the president of the power to dismiss the government and made his power to appoint military service chiefs and provincial governors contingent on the "advice" of the prime minister. Worse, in a rush of blood, he forced General Musharraf's predecessor as head of the army, General Jahangir Karamat, an able and apolitical general, to resign. Karamat, after a lecture at the Pakistan Defense Academy, had expressed the need for a National Security Council (NSC) in view of the introduction of nuclear weapons into Pakistan's arsenal. Sharif, whose family is of Indian Punjab origin and now settled in Lahore, was a small-time businessman. He was groomed (along with many other middle class Punjabis) by General Zia (also from Indian Punjab) as a reliable rival to the Sindhi Benazir Bhutto, and other feudal political leaders. Sharif had promoted Musharraf in October 1998 to General and chief of Army staff, thinking that being a Mohajir without a Punjabi support base he would have no Bonapartist ambitions. Perhaps Musharraf would have faded away after completing his term. But at a time when the economic situation at home was dismal, in another rush of blood and hoping to gain absolute power and earn popularity, Sharif dismissed Musharraf and attempted to replace him on October 12, 1999, with a family loyalist, the Director General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Lieutenant-General Ziauddin. Although Musharraf was out of the country at the time, the army moved quickly to depose Sharif in a bloodless coup. Two days before the coup, the Washington Post had noted that "analysts said Sharif has little idea how to restore confidence in a government that has lost credibility at home and abroad - this deeply unpopular government is facing its worst crisis since early 1997". One of the reasons that Sharif wanted to get rid of Musharraf was because he had led the Pakistani forces in the debacle at Kargil, in the summer of 1999. Infiltrators from Pakistan occupied positions on the Indian side of the Line of Control in the remote, mountainous area of Kashmir near Kargil, threatening the ability of India to supply its forces on the Siachen Glacier. Serious fighting flared in the Kargil sector, but the infiltrators withdrew following a meeting between Sharif and then president Bill Clinton in July. Sharif was severely embarrassed by the incident, although Sharif appeared to be in the loop and would have happily reaped the benefit of popularity if the adventure had succeeded. After Musharraf took over, Sharif was charged with attempted murder and other crimes. A Gallup Poll taken a day after Musharraf seized power revealed that most Pakistanis wanted an unelected, interim government of "clean technocrats" to rule for at least two years. Even Benazir Bhutto said, "He [Musharraf] was a professional soldier and I thought he was very courageous and brave. He'd been a commando and one who is a commando can take tremendous risks and think afterwards." A Pakistani editorial welcomed the coup, "This is perfectly understandable. The political record of the last decade of 'democracy' is dismal. Benazir Bhutto blundered from pillar to post during 1988-90. Nawaz Sharif plundered Pakistan (1990-93) as if there were no tomorrow. Then Benazir was caught, along with her husband, with her hands in the till instead of on the steering wheel. So Sharif returned to lord it over a bankrupt country. Then, obsessed with power, and emboldened by an illusion of invincibility, he went for the army's jugular and paid the price for his recklessness." Turkish connection It comes as no surprise that that Musharraf visited Ankara within days of taking power, in November, 1999, to take up a pre-coup invitation from Turkey's military chief of general staff, who happened to be away when the Pakistani general turned up. But Musharraf s main objective was to confer with General Kenan Evren, who had seized power in 1980. Yet Musharraf found himself a most unwelcome guest because both President Suleyman Demirel and Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, now rehabilitated and back in power, had been imprisoned and debarred from politics after Evren's coup. They advised Musharraf to restore democracy at the earliest possible chance. The influential Turkish Daily News, close to Demirel, castigated the visit as "untimely and unnecessary so soon after grabbing power and jailing elected prime minister Nawaz Sharif. The coup in Pakistan or one in any other country can never be accepted. Despite the role of the military in public life in Turkey the general failed to realize the sensitivity Turks feel towards coups and authoritarian rule. He seemed to forget that Turks have now found out that coups have not solved the problems of the country and that, to the contrary, they have further complicated things. The way the general praised former coup leader General Evren was unnecessary." So Musharraf met his old friends in Ankara and lunched with the chief of protocol, an old school mate. Musharraf did concede before leaving that all countries must find their own solutions. Turkish political model The fascination of the Pakistani military with the Turkish military's institutionalized role in politics through a National Security Council (NSC) is abiding. It stems from the days of General Zia ul-Haq, if not earlier, with close interaction between the military brass as Cold War allies of the US. Many senior Pakistani generals have been posted as ambassadors to Ankara. Zia ul-Haq had wanted to create an NSC in the 1980s, but he was dissuaded from doing so. President Farooq Leghari, under military prodding, had even issued a decree in January 1997 creating an NSC on the Turkish pattern, but Sharif, on being elected in 1997, allowed it to lapse. Following the Turkish coup in 1960, the 1961constitution transformed the earlier innocuous National Defense High Council into the National Security Council. The president of the republic, instead of the prime minister, was made its chairperson, and the "representatives" of the army, navy, air force and the gendarmerie became its members, apart from the prime minister and four other ministers. The council now became a constitutional body and offered "information" to the Council of Ministers (cabinet) concerning the internal and the external security of the country. After constitutional amendments following the 1971-73 military intervention, it submitted its "recommendations" to the Council of Ministers. The 1982 constitution, a less liberal product and the result of the 1980-1983 military intervention, further strengthened the NSC's role by obliging the Council of Ministers to give priority to its recommendations. Threats from the military members of the NSC had made premier Demirel resign in 1971, and the first-ever Islamist premier, Necmettin Erbakan, was forced to leave in 1997, thus avoiding direct military takeovers. The Turkish armed forces enjoy total autonomy in their affairs. Their Chief of General Staff (CGS) ranks after only the prime minister, and along with the president forms the troika that rules the country. Since the 1960 coup, Turkish politicians have slowly worked out a modus vivendi with military leaders, with incremental assertion of civilian supremacy. Since 1923, except for President Celal Bayar (ousted in the 1960 coup), all Turkish presidents had been retired military chiefs. But first Turgut Ozal (1989-1993) and then Demirel (1993-2000) strengthened civilian ascendancy by getting themselves elected as president. The current President, Necdet Sezer, is a former chairman of the Supreme Court. In Pakistan, the position of the army's CGS, originally based on the British colonial pattern but modified after 55 years of experience since independence in 1947, during which the military has directly governed for more than half the period, is even more decisive and certainly more arbitrary than the Turkish equivalent. In mooting an NSC in 1998, with a say for the armed forces in decision-making, then Pakistan army chief of staff Jehangir Karamat was only stating a political reality which might have avoided unsavory confrontation. It would have legalized the de facto position of the military and made its role more predictable and even accountable. Sharif was not amused, and Karamat requested early retirement, which was instantly approved. After the 1971 Turkish coup, with the top military command channeled into the NSC, putsches by colonels, tried a few times in the 1960s, disappeared in Turkey. The 1971 intervention was a result of pressure from middle level officers. Like Turkish politicians, Pakistanis will have to slowly work out a modus vivendi with military leaders for an incremental assertion of civilian supremacy. This does not mean irrational dismissals, such as those of Karamat (although he technically retired) and Musharraf. But while the Turkish armed forces, a bastion of secularism, annually expel officers suspected of any Islamic proclivities, Pakistan's armed forces and the ISI have become "Islamized" at the lower and middle levels, and even higher. In the short term, Musharraf is following General Evren's "Qaida" (primer). So soon after becoming the chief executive he created the NSC (now to have 12 members), heavily weighted in favor of the military, and formed a cabinet of technocrats. Before the 1980 Turkish coup, political leaders such as premier Demirel and the leader of the opposition, Ecevit, and others, totally abdicated their political responsibilities. They went though hundreds of rounds of voting without electing a new president. Nearly a thousand Turks were killed in six months in left against right violence prior to the coup. So General Evren barred Demirel, Ecevit and others from politics, and closed their parties. Similarly, Musharraf has kept Benazir Bhutto out of politics on corruption charges, and in a deal exiled Sharif to Saudi Arabia in 2000. Benazir could be arrested if she enters Pakistan, although she still threatens from time to time to fight the October elections. Her nomination papers for the polls have been rejected by the courts. Musharraf's army constituency >From the outset, Musharraf has made no secret of using referendums or amending the constitution to institutionalize the military's role in decision-making and to prolong and strengthen his hold over power. General Evren had established a committee of experts to recommend a new constitution, the approval of which by referendum also granted him a seven-year term. Musharraf has also chopped and changed the 1973 constitution, but the referendum in April this year to grant himself five more years as head of state was not a neat exercise (accusations of rigging). He could have done better. In the final analysis, Musharraf is a representative of the armed forces, the most powerful and best organized entity in Pakistan, with the ISI doing its dirty work most of the time. This is his internal constituency which he must cultivate and guard. To date, he has succeeded in legalizing the military's takeover in 1999 - the coup was endorsed by the Supreme Court on the condition that elections be held within three years - and he has institutionalized its voice through the NSC. His mentor, General Evren, after heading the NSC for two years, had himself elected as president in a referendum for a new constitution. A yes for the constitution was also a yes for another seven years for him. To make it further sure, he forbade any discussion of the vote on the constitution for many weeks earlier. In the end, General Evren was head of state for nine years. Musharraf has hinted that if his version of "refined democracy" is not introduced, he would be willing to continue. Pakistan's democracy Throughout the Cold War, the so-called democracy in Pakistan was basically a Western media myth to put its ally on a par with India, which sat in the other camp. Barring perhaps Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (1972-77), after the military had been totally discredited in 1971 when Bangladesh was carved from its soil, the Pakistan armed forces have been de jure or de facto rulers of the country. In the 11 years between General Zia's death in 1988 and Musharraf's takeover, Benazir Bhutto and Sharif were eased in and out of power whenever they tried to interfere with the military's autonomy or agenda, or their control of nuclear arms, or the policy on Kashmir and foreign affairs. Constantly squabbling with each other, they nevertheless remained busy amassing huge fortunes by corrupt means. The two politicians had the opportunity and political support to lay the foundations for democracy, but instead they chose despotic ways to steamroller the institutions that provided the checks and balances in the state. This highlights the inability of Pakistan in general to accept the give and take of a democratic administration. For all the good copy that Benazir still provides the Western media, she was perhaps one of the most incompetent administrators in Pakistan's history, with her husband, "Mr 10 percent" Ali Zardari, making it worse. She played a seminal role in 1996 in promoting the stranglehold in Pakistan of the Jamaat-i-Islami and other fundamentalist groups, now hiding and biding their time in Pakistan and Afghanistan; they are deeply entrenched in the Pakistan armed forces, the ISI and the establishment, with the potential for implosion. Tacitly approved by the US and with support from Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, Pakistan created the Taliban and other jihadis to provide peace and security in Afghanistan so that US oil giants could lay a pipeline from Central Asia to South Asia. Despite the ban by the Taliban on growing opium, jihadis, resurgent warlords and drug barons on both sides of the non-enforceable Durand line that separates Pakistan and Afghanistan financed themselves by the cultivation and export of opium (75 percent of world production) and heroin. Too many vested interests in and outside of Pakistan, especially in the military, benefited from this lucrative arrangement. Pakistan is now deeply infected with the virus of Islamic fundamentalism. The sympathizers of democracy cannot wish it away with the wave of a magic wand as the country has pursued the path of Sharia law, religious intolerance and authoritarian regimes. A constitution does not a democracy make. Even Turkey, perhaps the only Muslim democracy, 80 years after Ataturk's sweeping reforms with a secular constitution in place since 1923, gets wobbly from time to time. Even its moderate Islamic parties have to be banned regularly. Its armed forces, a bastion of secularism, are ever watchful. Pakistan polity In any case, Pakistan began with weak grassroots political organizations, with the British-era civil servants strengthening the bureaucracy's control over the polity and decision-making of the country. Subsequently, the bureaucracy called for the military's help, but soon the tail was wagging the dog. In the first seven years of Pakistan's existence, nine provincial governments were dismissed. From 1951 to 1958 there was only one army commander in chief, two governor generals, but seven prime ministers. The politicians had wanted to further strengthen relations with the British, their erstwhile rulers, but General Ayub Khan - encouraged by the US military - formed closer cooperation with the Pentagon. And in 1958 the military took over power, with Ayub Khan exiling the governor general, Iskender Mirza, to London. A mere colonel at partition in 1947, with experience mostly of staff jobs, Ayub Khan became a general after only four years. Later, he promoted himself to field marshal. Ayub Khan eased out officers who did not fit into the Anglo-Saxon scheme to use Pakistan's strategic position against the evolving Cold War confrontation with the communist block. General Zia ul-Haq, meanwhile, was a cunning schemer, veritably a mullah in uniform who, while posted in Amman, helped plan the expulsion of Yasser Arafat and the Palestine Liberation Organization from Jordan in the 1970s. But he is more remembered for having prayed at all the mosques of Amman, if not in the whole of Jordan. He seduced the north Indian media with his gifts of tikka kebabs, and planned Operation Topaz, which in 1989 fueled insurgency inside Indian Kashmir, while at the same time trying to calm the Indians with his goodwill visits to promote cricket contacts between the countries. His Islamization of the country made the situation for women and minorities untenable, while the judicial killing of former leader Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1977 turned General Zia into a pariah. But the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan made him a US darling, restoring and fatally strengthening the Pakistan military's link with the Pentagon. This made the Pakistani military and the ISI's hold pervasive, omnipotent and omniscient. This defense alliance, the seeds of which were planted by Ayub Khan, and the symbiotic relationship between the ISI and the CIA bolstered by General Zia, was never really dismantled and is unlikely to be disentangled. Pakistan's external constituency: The US The form of government in a country has seldom bothered the US in the pursuit of its national interests. Otherwise, why would it embrace Pakistan, or say Egypt, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia or any of the other kingdoms and sheikhdoms and repressive regimes around the world, and shun democratic India? Beginning with Ayub Khan's unofficial visit to the US, the foundations for bilateral cooperation in the military field were laid. These have survived through thick and thin, like a bad marriage where neither side can let go, and despite bad patches, such as the takeovers by Zia ul-Haq and Musharraf. Like the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, September 11 revived the necessity, if not the passion of the 1980s, for Pakistan and the US to fully embrace one another. A divorce now, as naive Indian policymakers and media propose, is wishful thinking in the extreme. The US needed Pakistan to protect itself from a backlash of its earlier Afghan policies of creating the mujahideen and supporting the jihad in Afghanistan. Now, Washington desperately needed to stop Pakistan's nuclear bombs or material from falling into jihadi hands, and to eliminate, or at least curtail, further damage to US interests. The US and others in the West will make pro forma noises in favor of democracy, but there appears to be no alternative to the Musharraf regime. Look at the options. Forget about any democratic government now, when the battle with the jihadis in the country has only just begun. Musharraf: Cool, calculating commando Musharraf, with his elite commando training, is cool and calculating. He has handled difficult and complex situations well. And in terms of intelligence, opportunism and dedication, he is professionally far ahead of the bluff and bumbling Ayub Khan. Zia ul-Haq reversed human rights progress and irreparably damaged Pakistan's polity. And there is not much to write about the befuddled General Yahya Khan, who presided over the breakaway of Bangladesh in 1971. Musharraf seized on the invitation in June 2001 of Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to hold talks and, prodded and blessed by the US, he anointed himself president of Pakistan for five years (possibly not for the last time), while retaining the all-powerful army chief post. He thus became the first Mohajir head of state of Pakistan. Some of his loyal generals absented themselves from the swearing-in ceremony. They were taken care of when he lined up with the US in its war against terrorism after September 11. In July 2001, the Indian media and policymakers foolishly thought that an emperor-like treatment would soften Musharraf on Kashmir. But after his initial charm offensive it was clear that for the Mohajir president, the first priority was to establish credibility and consolidate his position within the Pakistan armed forces, its people, Kashmiri secessionists (by meeting All-Hurriyat Conference leaders for tea in the Pakistan High Commission in Delhi) and the jihadis. Thus, the centrality of the Kashmir dispute in relations with India was maintained, which sent his popularity back home soaring. After the unraveling of its two-decade Afghan policy, Pakistan could not let go on Kashmir. The nuclear threat option remains the only gain from the US exploitation of Pakistan in its proxy war with the USSR in Afghanistan, which has left behind millions of heroin addicts, a Kalashnikov culture and a bankrupt economy. Musharraf has tried to reform the economy and reduce corruption. And while he might have gotten rid of or relocated unreliable and Islamist generals (some before his Indian visit, others after September 11), in such situations the toss up is either thakt (throne) or takhta (noose). Ataturk as a model Ataturk boldly carried out modern Western-style reforms against religious obscurantism and dogma and forged the remnants of the Ottoman Empire with a 99 percent Muslim population into the secular Republic of Turkey, in the 1920s. He kept his ambitions in check, did not claim former Ottoman provinces lost in World War I, and concentrated on building a new Turkey from the bottom up. Musharraf, a child of these times, has stepped down, after September 11, from the fundamentalist tiger he was riding and had helped nurture, and which is now baying and conspiring for his blood and that of his US allies. Delhi-born Musharraf's family comes from east Uttar Pradesh (India). Blue-eyed Ataturk was born in Salonika (Greece) and his family came from Macedonia. Ataturk was able to rally the world war-weary Turks, whose land had been occupied by foreigners. At first he battled the Ottoman Sultan's forces sent to kill him and then vanquished friend turned foe rebel Ethem and his ragtag army, which had helped fight off invading Greeks who had almost reached Ankara. This was something like the various jihadi forces and foot-loose groups that Musharraf now faces. Later, Ataturk ruthlessly crushed religious revolts led by feudal Kurdish chiefs and others. And to fulfill his destiny, he even neutralized his earlier nationalist comrades, who were in favor of continuing with the Caliphate. Musharraf, too, has succeeded in sidelining many unreliable generals. But the question remains, has he done enough? Despite his belief in his avowed destiny, his proclaimed good luck in escaping helicopter mishaps, not being in the plane crash that killed Zia and victory in the standoff with Sharif, his position remains precarious, internally and externally. Joining the coalition against terror has helped prop up the external sector, but fundamental weaknesses in Pakistan's economy have been aggravated, and quite clearly he is not fully in command on the home front, with such things as suicide bombers killing foreigners and Christians and senior officials being assassinated apparently beyond his control. He is now tightening up, as with the recent arrests of ranking al-Qaeda members in Karachi. But whether his childhood Ataturk-inspired dream will come true is another matter. Perhaps Musharraf is not ruthless enough, like Ataturk, or maybe there are just too many cards stacked against him. K Gajendra Singh, Indian ambassador (retired), served as ambassador to Turkey from August 1992 to April 1996. Prior to that, he served terms as ambassador to Jordan, Romania and Senegal.=20 From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 04:00:14 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 04:00:14 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVRO-0005vQ-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 04:00:14 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVQN-00028J-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:59:11 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVOA-000253-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:56:54 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9t7l31469 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:55:07 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9t5N31405 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:55:05 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Indonesia: sugar industry demise Thread-Index: AcJlQt5hBpkKatErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Indonesia: sugar industry demise Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:58:20 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:58:20 +0300 How the mighty Indonesian sugar industry fell By Bill Guerin Asia Times, September 26 2002 Thousands of Javanese sugarcane farmers staged a massive rally in Jakarta on Tuesday demanding protection from the glut of cheap imported sugar that has threatened their very existence. The Java sugar industry in its colonial-era heyday was a mighty agricultural and industrial enterprise and by the late 19th century Indonesia was in the forefront of the world's sugar producers, beaten only by Cuba. How the mighty have fallen. High input costs, poor management practices, inefficient government policies and a steady stream of cheaper imports mean that the angry farmers are being driven out of a basic industry built by their forefathers. The country has been a net importer of sugar since the 1960s and now ranks as one of the world's biggest importers. Indonesia's annual consumption of sugar is about 3.3 million tons. Annual imports went down from 2.1 million tons in 1999 to 1.2 million tons in 2000 and about 1.6 million last year. It will likely import 1.5 million tons this year, mainly from Thailand. There are a mere 174 tons in stock, which will improve when the season kicks off in two months time. Total sugar production is currently 1.7 million tons. Manufacture of sugar in Indonesia in the early days was almost exclusively confined to Java, with its rich volcanic soils and a vast supply of labor. The factories and their mainly Dutch owners and managers dominated the Javanese countryside and set in place agricultural systems in the Dutch mode. Sugar brought work opportunities galore but many small landholders became victims as the factory managers embarked on a lengthy program to grab peasant land for cane production. They also took over what had been the state's function to recruit labor for the planting, harvesting and haulage of cane. >From then onward the state-owned enterprises and factories dominated the country's sugar industry until, in 1957, the industry was nationalized and regulated. A day before the farmers came to town, Minister of Trade and Industry Rini M Soewandi issued a new decree regulating sugar imports in a bid to redress the price imbalances. Only state-owned plantation companies (PTPNs) will be allowed to import white sugar and imports of both raw and refined sugar will be approved only for manufacturers who use sugar as raw material in their production processes. Though one of the world's top sugar importers, Indonesia applies the lowest import tariffs, a modest 25 percent duty on white sugar and 20 percent on raw sugar, levels set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its Letter of Intent. Thailand and the Philippines, for example, impose an import duty of almost 100 percent. The European Union imposes a massive 240 percent import duty and the United States slams a 150 percent duty on sugar. In 1998, the Indonesian government set a zero duty on sugar at the behest of the IMF but in 2000 new rates were implemented. President Megawati Sukarnoputri, in Rome in June for an international food security conference, reportedly agreed to increase import tariffs again on all food and agricultural commodities in the near term. However, Soewandi has rejected the demands for tariff hikes on the grounds that raising the import duties would boost sugar prices at home and burden consumers. Minister for Agriculture Bungaran Saragih also says there is no need to raise the tariff on sugar because it is already high enough, in principle, to assist farmers. Bungaran says sugar prices in the domestic market had to be increased so that farmers would have sufficient incentive to plant sugarcane. "We'll also help push up sugar prices on the domestic market to encourage local sugarcane farmers to plant more crops," he said. The Indonesian Sugar Association wants a new import duty of at least 95 percent but Soewandi is fearful that this could lead to even more rampant smuggling of the white gold. There are some 400,000 hectares of sugarcane plantations in Indonesia and almost three-quarters of this on Java, although productivity in Sumatra, at eight tons a hectare, outstrips that in most Javanese plantations, which average only between four and five tons per hectare. Ten years ago more than half of Java's cane was irrigated, but this acreage has substantially diminished, reflecting a shift to the cultivation of more profitable crops. Farmers have switched to higher-profit, shorter-duration food crops. Sugarcane has had to compete with other crops, especially rice. Relatively less attractive returns compared with other crops have discouraged many farmers from growing cane, leaving factories without sufficient raw materials to operate at capacity. That said, sugarcane cultivation in the major producing islands is still a very significant economic enterprise, and encompasses more than one-third of the total land area. About 70 percent of the sugarcane areas are cultivated by farmers with small-to-medium-sized holdings. The remainder is grown on the sugar-factory plantations, where the dominant form of sugarcane cultivation is plantation-style. Farmers have a different system, that of Kelompok Tani, where small groups are responsible for at least 20 hectares of land and coordinate the supply of cane to the mills. Many cane farmers have production-sharing agreements with the state sugar mills whereby up to 65 percent of the sugar produced by the mill is returned to the farmers as payment in kind. Others just sell their cane and are paid based on the current official procurement price. Farmers in this scheme get 90 percent of their payment in cash and 10 percent in kind. The government also subsidizes cane farmers by authorizing mills to pay the farmers based on the volume of raw cane they bring to the mill and on the extraction yields of their cane. Only 12 of 59 sugar mills nationwide are operating efficiently and 12 more have already been shut down. Ninety percent of mills are publicly owned. About 90 percent of sugar is used directly by households and 10 percent by industries. Imported refined sugar is largely for industrial use. The Indonesian mills produce a plantation-grade raw sugar called SHS I quality, which, because it is cheaper than refined sugar, has enjoyed an increased domestic demand. However, the food, beverage and pharmaceutical industries need a higher quality of refined industrial grade that is largely met by imports. According to the Indonesian Food and Beverage Producers Association, local sugar quality is not suitable for these products. The local refining industry rests with a single refinery, in West Java, which began operations in 1997. It can produce only 150,000 tons of refined sugar per year. The high incidence of smuggling of sugar and under-invoicing of consignments into Indonesia has, in addition to ensuring declining returns to sugar farmers, made it difficult to attract investment for more modern sugar refining plants. Increasing sugar production is far from easy. The state-run sugar mills lack decent equipment and the ongoing shortages of cane supply and poor-quality cane have caused many mills in Java to close. This in turn has led to a much-reduced cane-harvesting area. Private sugar mills account for only 35 percent of total sugar production and, while they have better yields that the state-run mills, they suffer disrupted harvests and milling operations because of widespread land-ownership disputes with locals. Distribution is done by private mills through large distributors and by state mills through a tender process. The whole system is antiquated and does not meet the needs of an equitable system of distributing the sugar from Java across the country. One case illustrates the point. East Java needs some 396,000 tons of sugar a year, but produces about 700,000 tons annually. This year the province's Governor Imam Utomo, backed up by the East Java military district command, the police and the public prosecutor's office, issued a ban on the import of raw sugar to address the imbalances. The National Sugar Council (DGN, or Dewan Gula Nasional) has failed to live up to expectations that it would help improve the efficiency and productivity of the sugar industry and improve farmer's competitive position in the global marketplace. A Rp23 billion (more than US$2.5 million at current rates) credit line for cane farmers a couple of seasons ago proved to be of little help. The idea was that mills and farmers would somehow work together to improve deteriorating husbandry practices and the financial difficulties faced by the sugar industry would be attenuated by the credit program. Thus, it was hoped, the quality of cane would be improved and milling operations would be more efficient. The small domestic production base cannot cope with the rapidly increasing direct domestic consumption backed by an equally fast-growing food-processing industry, and the upshot is that domestic sugar cannot hope to compete in price and quality with imports. With world sugar prices relatively low, sugar can be imported and sold at retail below the price of the domestically produced sugar. The government and sugar producers complain of unfair trading and even of "dumping" of sugar by other countries into the Indonesian market. There may be some truth in this but the lower efficiency and higher cost of domestic sugar production and milling in Indonesia are prime factors in the market price distortions. Breakthroughs in rice production in the early 1980s led to a rapid increase in agricultural productivity and farm incomes. Not only could Indonesia feed itself, but millions of farm families were at last able to break out of a subsistence existence. Later, labor-intensive, export-oriented industrialization was the main engine of growth until the 1997 financial crisis. Rising labor demand in the industrial and services sectors created jobs for the poor, boosted real wages and caused wholesale reductions in poverty. The substantial downsizing of the sugar industry in Java, which has enraged the farmers, is down to the ongoing economic reforms, the liberalization of sugar imports, and the continuing reduction in the land planted with sugar as farmers switch to other crops. The debate on whether or not to raise import tariffs (Indonesia's World Trade Organization deal allows for imposition of tariffs of up to 110 percent) is now likely to be colored and heightened by anti-IMF posturing on the premise that Indonesia's farm import liberalization was forced upon it by the agency, but the buck must surely stop at the government's door. The government alone must implement policies that will ensure adequate supplies of sugar at prices affordable to the community at large. Sustainability of production and the availability of employment opportunities in a Java that is getting poorer and poorer would seem to be laudable goals. The government needs to tackle, head on, the corruption and collusion that infest the customs service. Hiking the tariffs will play straight into the hands of corrupt customs officials and smugglers, while at the same time ensuring prohibitively high sugar prices for consumers. With nearly half of the country's 100 million-strong labor force either out of work or underemployed, the challenge is immense and heightened by the fact that between 60 and 70 percent of the country's 210 million people live and work in the countryside, making the agricultural sector the biggest employer. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, a well-known economist, has noted that there is too much price distortion and government intervention in the agricultural sector. "The government needs to redefine its policy towards the agricultural sector but it should not be a tradeoff vis-a-vis the manufacturing and service sectors," she said. Given endemic corruption at all levels in the government bureaucracy, there are fears that any new money diverted to promoting agriculture could end up in the pockets of bureaucrats who still exert considerable influence in the villages of Java and the rest of the vast archipelago. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 04:02:09 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 04:02:09 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVTF-0005vf-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 04:02:09 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVSH-00028q-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 04:01:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVQ3-00028L-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 03:58:52 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8Q9v3K01261 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:57:04 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8Q9v1N01195 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 12:57:01 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US legitimation crisis: Tyco Thread-Index: AcJlQyN+BpkKcNErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US legitimation crisis: Tyco Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 13:00:16 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 13:00:16 +0300 Tyco Rewarded an Executive During a Grand Jury Inquiry By GRETCHEN MORGENSON with ANDREW ROSS SORKIN New York Times, September 26 2002 Tyco International agreed to pay a severance package of $44.8 million in cash to Mark H. Swartz, its chief financial officer, while he was under investigation by a grand jury in Manhattan that later indicted him on fraud charges. A copy of the Aug. 1 agreement was obtained yesterday from a person close to the investigation of Mr. Swartz and L. Dennis Kozlowski, Tyco's former chief executive. It was approved on Aug. 14 by two board members serving on Tyco's compensation committee. The amount paid to Mr. Swartz was not disclosed to shareholders, though the complex formula that Tyco used to devise his exit agreement was outlined in a document attached to its most recent quarterly filing. The agreement was struck the same day that Mr. Swartz resigned from Tyco at the behest of Edward D. Breen, the executive brought in to run the company after Mr. Kozlowski was indicted by the grand jury on tax evasion charges in June. Those charges were expanded on Sept. 12 when Robert M. Morgenthau, the Manhattan district attorney, announced indictments against Mr. Kozlowski and Mr. Swartz, arguing that they had reaped $600 million through racketeering that involving stock fraud, unauthorized bonuses and loans. The disclosure of such a generous exit package for an executive who Tyco knew was under criminal investigation is expected to raise questions among shareholders, who bid up the stock yesterday after Mr. Breen outlined his plan to restore investor confidence. At the time of the Swartz deal, Tyco was still reeling from the initial indictment of Mr. Kozlowski and had acknowledged that it would have to work hard to repair its image among investors as a company with a complacent board. The details of the payment are bound to come as yet another unwelcome surprise to Tyco shareholders already disturbed by the revelation of one hidden scandal after another. "To make a cash settlement of $44 million plus stock to somebody known to be under criminal investigation is highly questionable," Mr. Morgenthau said. "It is also inconsistent with what the company did with Kozlowski - they are not paying him anything. Kozlowski and Swartz were 2-to-1 partners on all deals, so why is Swartz being treated differently?" He was referring to the routine arrangement at Tyco in which Mr. Kozlowski got bonuses or other remuneration twice as large as Mr. Swartz's. A spokesman for Tyco said that Mr. Swartz was treated differently from Mr. Kozlowski because he had been more cooperative in the internal inquiry than had Mr. Kozlowski and because Mr. Swartz played a significant role in helping the company sell shares in its financing subsidiary, CIT, to the public on June 2. Under the agreement, Mr. Swartz received the following amounts: $10.4 million from a deferred compensation plan, $24.5 million from an executive life insurance plan, nearly $9.1 million in a lump sum that represented three times the combined value of his salary and his highest proxy bonus, plus $756,250 from a consulting agreement. The agreement also allowed Mr. Swartz to receive 702,533 shares of Tyco stock, worth $9 million on the date of the deal, and 2.03 million in unvested stock options. Beyond that, he got six years of medical and dental benefits and payments to cover his state and local income taxes. Under the terms of Mr. Swartz's package, Tyco cannot sue him for return of the money; instead, Mr. Swartz and Tyco are required to resolve any disputes over the package through arbitration. Tyco said that it planned to bring an arbitration proceeding against Mr. Swartz. The breakdown of the $44.8 million the company agreed to pay to Mr. Swartz was not disclosed by Tyco in its quarterly filing submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Aug. 9. Nor were the details made public in the report issued last week that was included in a so-called 8-K filing with the S.E.C. by the law firm of Boies, Schiller & Flexner. The firm was hired to conduct an internal investigation into the practices of Tyco executives. Walter Montgomery, a spokesman for Tyco, said: "The 8-K focused on who did what improperly, when and with what effect. It did not focus on negotiations with individuals." The company believes, he said, that it fulfilled its reporting requirements by including a copy of Mr. Swartz's severance agreement in the quarterly filing on Aug. 9. "We paid over money due to him under various agreements including a deferred compensation agreement," Mr. Montgomery said. "We paid only approximately one-third of what he was entitled to under existing agreements with the company. And we reserve the right to go after that one-third." Signatures of Stephen W. Foss and W. Peter Slusser, members of the compensation committee, appear on the Aug. 14 agreement approving the details of Mr. Swartz's severance. Paul Verkyil, a lawyer at Boies, Schiller, signed the agreement as a representative for Tyco. Securities lawyers said that approval of the severance package by Mr. Foss and Mr. Slusser may give the S.E.C. room to expand the civil suit it filed against Mr. Kozlowski, Mr. Swartz and Mark Belnick, the company's chief counsel, on Sept. 12 by including the two board members as well. At the same time, the approval by the directors may give Mr. Swartz a defense against some of the S.E.C.'s arguments that the case involved "egregious, self-serving and clandestine misconduct." Phone calls to Mr. Foss and Mr. Slusser were not returned. Charles Stillman, the lawyer representing Mr. Swartz, declined to comment. Separately, the Tyco board came under fire yesterday from Mark Connolly, New Hampshire's director of securities regulation. In a letter to Mr. Breen, Mr. Connolly called on Tyco's board to resign. "It is disingenuous to believe that the same board that breached its fiduciary duties in exercising oversight responsibility over certain wayward employees is the best arbiter of appropriate corporate governance," he wrote. Mr. Foss and Mr. Slusser are among 9 board members of a total of 11 who voted two weeks ago not to renominate themselves for election as directors next year. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 04:05:09 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 04:05:09 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVW9-0005vw-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 04:05:09 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVVB-00029Q-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 04:04:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVTm-00029H-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 04:02:42 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8QA0tb05326 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 13:00:55 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8QA0rN05263 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 13:00:53 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Belgium: confronting colonial past Thread-Index: AcJlQ61aBpkKdtErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Belgium: confronting colonial past Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 13:04:07 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 13:04:07 +0300 The recent flurry of "interest" in the Stalin era, prompted in part by Martin Amis's narcissistic treatment of the purges, is helpfully put into perspective by developments like this, of which there are too few. Belgium Confronts Its Heart of Darkness By ALAN RIDING New York Times, September 26 2002 PARIS - No less than other European powers, Belgium proclaimed its colonial mission to be that of spreading civilization. But while Britain and France, say, had global empires, Belgium's attention was focused overwhelmingly on the vast, resource-rich Central African territory of Congo, 75 times larger than Belgium itself. The deal was implicit: in exchange for extracting immense wealth from its colony, Belgium offered schools, roads, Christianity and, yes, civilization. Yet Belgium's pride in its colonial past has always been shadowed by a darker history, one marked by two decades of perhaps the cruelest rule ever inflicted on a colonized people and, a half-century later, by a violent intervention in Congolese politics after the country's independence in 1960. This history, long buried, neither taught in schools nor mentioned in public, is now beginning to surface. In February, Belgium admitted participating in the 1961 assassination of Patrice Lumumba, Congo's first Prime Minister, and apologized for it. The motivation for the crime was to avoid losing control over Congo's resources, but Belgium steadfastly denied any involvement until new evidence collected by a parliamentary commission last year confirmed the direct role of Belgian agents in carrying out and covering up the murder. Now fresh light may be thrown on an earlier, still darker, period of Belgium's reign over Congo. In anticipation of a major exhibition scheduled for fall 2004, the Royal Museum for Central Africa in Tervuren, near Brussels, is sponsoring the first far-reaching review of Belgium's colonial past, including the period from 1885 to 1908 when, as the personal property of King Leopold II, the Congo Free State is believed to have suffered violence and exploitation that cost millions of lives. Guido Gryseels, the director of the government-owned museum, says the purpose of the study is not to pass judgment but to provide information about a neglected past. In addition, he says, the study will address more than the political aspects of colonialism. It will also look at the period through the prisms of Central Africa's history, anthropology, zoology and geology, disciplines that form part of the museum's permanent scientific mission. Yet the initiative is daring, since it raises the broader question of a country's continuing responsibility for unsavory actions carried out in its name generations or even centuries earlier. These range from promotion of the slave trade and annexation of territories to colonial repression and ransacking of natural resources. Further, while the study is not subject to Belgian government control, it will be financed by the taxpayer, which makes intense public debate of its findings even more likely. So far, no other former colonial power has shown an appetite for looking back with a critical eye, even though the colonial records of, say, the British in India, the French in Algeria, the Dutch in Indonesia and the Portuguese in Angola all contain examples of human rights abuses and excessive use of force. Interestingly, Mr. Gryseels said he had received strong expressions of support for his project from foreign historians and social scientists. Maria Misra, a lecturer in modern history at Oxford University, believes that Britain, for one, should follow Belgium's example. "The point of cataloging Britain's imperial crimes is not to trash our forebears," she wrote in The Guardian of London, "but to remind rulers that even the best-run empires are cruel and violent, not just the Belgian Congo. Overwhelming power, combined with boundless superiority, will produce atrocities - even among the well-intentioned." The strong emotional attachment of some former colonial administrators to prized former colonies, however, can pose a problem. "Every time Belgian ex-colonials hear criticism of what happened under King Leopold, they see it as a criticism of colonialism in general," Mr. Gryseels explained. "A lot of Belgians worked hard in developing the infrastucture, building roads, organizing school systems, and they feel they did a good job and it is very unfair that the whole thing is being criticized in a very one-sided way." A case against King Leopold, though, was already being made a century ago. In 1899, Joseph Conrad published "Heart of Darkness," in which he exposed the horrors of Congo. In 1904, a British shipping agent, Edmund Morel, formed the Congo Reform Association, which publicized the human toll of Leopold's rule. Finally, under British pressure, Leopold sold Congo to Belgium in 1908. In 1919, a Belgian commission estimated that Congo's population was half what it was in 1879. But all this was expurgated from Belgium's official memory. "My generation was brought up with the view that Belgium brought civilization to Congo, that we did nothing but good out there," said Mr. Gryseels, 49, who attended high school in the late 1960's. "I don't think that during my entire education I ever heard a critical word about our colonial past." By the time he took charge of the museum a year ago, however, attitudes were changing. Belgian intellectuals were conversant with a four-volume account of Leopold's Congo by the respected Belgian historian Jules Marchal as well as with other new histories of Europe's appropriation of Africa. But no book had the impact of Adam Hochschild's "King Leopold's Ghost: A Story of Greed, Terror and Heroism in Colonial Africa" (Houghton Mifflin, 1998), which appeared in translation in Belgium in 1999. In it, Mr. Hochschild describes how, along with the uncounted thousands who died of disease and famine, many Congolese were killed by Leopold's agents for failing to meet production quotas for ivory and rubber, the territory's principal sources of wealth before its diamonds, copper and zinc were discovered. Mr. Hochschild estimates the total death toll during the Leopold period at 10 million. Leopold himself never visited Congo, but it fed him the income to build palaces, monuments and museums and to buy expensive clothes and villas for his teenage mistress. In 1897, he built the Museum of the Congo - later the Museum of the Belgian Congo, today the Royal Museum for Central Africa - to house an exhibition devoted to animals, plants, ethnographical objects, sculptures and scenes of African life. The show's popularity led to the building's conversion into a permanent museum linked to an institute for scientific research. "Today we have very fine collections, but the museum has remained almost unchanged for over 40 years," Mr. Gryseels said, "so it needs all sorts of change, first of all the message, which is still very colonial and provides the Belgian view of Africa before 1960 and is not very much related to the Africa of today." At the museum's entrance, for instance, a large statue of a white colonial and two kneeling Africans still stands, accompanied by the inscription, "Belgium brings civilization to the Congo." As part of a reorganization of the museum in preparation for the 2004 exhibition, Mr. Gryseels decided to take a fresh look at Belgium's colonial past. The study, which begins this fall, will be carried out by a scientific commission led by the Belgian historian Jean-Luc Vellut and will address Belgium's entire colonial past, not just the Leopold period. To ensure objectivity, working groups will also include American and African scholars. Now, Mr. Gryseels acknowledged, the museum is ill prepared to address the questions raised by Mr. Hochschild and other recent authors. "When you visit our museum, you don't find any information about the allegations made in these books," he said. "So we thought it was important to present the different views of historians on that period and provide scientific information so that a visitor can make up his own mind." He does not expect the study and exhibition to lead to a fresh apology to Congo, however. "A lot of very positive things happened during the real period of colonization after 1908," he said. "Also, I don't think one should look at the past with the moral standards of today. After all, early in the last century, children of 6 or 7 were working 17 hours a day in Belgian factories. We should look at it with the moral standards of those periods." But, Mr. Gryseels was asked, was he shocked when he read Mr. Hochschild's book? "Yes, I was," he said softly. "Obviously, it hits pretty hard. Especially since I am from a generation that was brought up with a very positive and flattering view of our colonial activities. I am from a generation that sold calendars and New Year's cards to help missionaries in Central Africa. And when you read all these revelations, they're pretty hard hitting." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 04:17:09 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 04:17:09 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVhl-00060H-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 04:17:09 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVgn-0002DZ-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 04:16:09 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uVfA-0002DQ-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 04:14:29 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8QACft17716 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 13:12:41 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8QACeN17625 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 13:12:40 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK sub-imperialism: US view Thread-Index: AcJlRVMMBpkKfNErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK sub-imperialism: US view Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 13:15:55 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 13:15:55 +0300 Dominique Moisi is the sort of Enarque that gives the French state its deservedly bad name. He writes regularly for the Financial Times, contributing the usual mixture of inconsequential in-flight magazine-type "analysis" of current events tinged with a Francophile gloss, together with the occasional strategic barb lobbed at precisely-selected targets. He was the co-author of a dreadful book with former foreign minister Hubert Vedrine, in which the "socialist" Vedrine outlined his "vision" of French foreign policy. Tony Judt reviewed it for NYRB and highlighted all the usual failings of this vision, not least Vedrine's profound appreciation of his own wisdom, a trait common among Enarques. Now Moisi has shifted a bit, being rather less admiring of Vedrine and noticeably more toadying towards the new French foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin. Moisi thinks it wonderful that Schr=F6der is being snubbed by Washington while Chirac struts the world stage with the imprimatur of Dubya. Meanwhile Moisi makes public the French foreign policy goal of one sub-imperialist appealing to another: Britain and France as "the two responsible" members of the EU. Quel mairde! NEWS ANALYSIS Tony Blair's Role: Statesman, or Poodle? By WARREN HOGE New York Times, September 26 2002 LONDON, Sept. 25 - When President Bush had a problem this month making his case on Iraq to the Europeans, the man he sought out was Tony Blair, Britain's prime minister. When Chancellor Gerhard Schr=F6der of Germany had a problem this week with Washington about Iraq, he too went to see Mr. Blair. The two events seemed to confirm that Mr. Blair has secured his long-sought role for Britain as bridge between Europe and the United States and to validate his view that he could at once be a good Atlanticist and a trusted European. But it is a precarious position at the moment. Suspicions are rampant in the 15-nation European Union over Mr. Blair's closeness to Washington and even at home the British press has regularly portrayed him as "Bush's poodle." The extent of his real influence with an independent-minded administration in Washington often appears limited. The British prime minister is pushing hard to insist that any military action in Iraq happen only with United Nations backing, but the Bush administration continues to insist it will act unilaterally if necessary. "I think the view on the Continent is still very much that he is someone who is being ridiculously pro-American," said Charles Grant, head of the London-based Center for European Reform. "The people I meet there and in Labor Party circles here think that the poodle reference is too strong, but they think that he is more supportive than he need be." At stake is Mr. Blair's ambition to be a strong leader in Europe and his conviction, despite misgivings at home, that Britain's place is unquestioningly at the side of America. Squaring that circle has been the central mission of his time in office. Europeans who eyed him warily because of his closeness to Mr. Bush give him credit these days for helping steer the administration toward cooperation with the United Nations. But that credit is conditional. "Most people I know would say that Blair's length of rope or, if you like, his amount of leeway is directly tied to the evidence of how much moderating influence he can continue to exert in Washington," said John Palmer, a Briton who heads the European Policy Center in Brussels. In a daylong debate in the House of Commons on Tuesday following the release of an intelligence report on Saddam Hussein's weapons buildup, even speakers supporting Mr. Blair tied their backing to an understanding that Britain would not join the United States in any military action that was not endorsed by the Security Council. Among Britain's European allies, Germany, for one, reacted dismissively today to the British report. Uwe-Karsten Heye, the government spokesman, said "An initial reading of the papers has not found anything yet, but perhaps it lies in the details." Mr. Blair was the European leader who rallied support for the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 and was Washington's staunchest ally in the war in Afghanistan. Those campaigns were less risky than his current solidarity with Washington in a less-popular cause. "I can see no circumstances under which Blair and the British government will not be fighting along with the Americans, and that will make the Europeans angry," said Dana Allin, senior fellow for trans-Atlantic affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. But Chris Patten, a Briton who is the European Union's commissioner for external relations, said he thought Mr. Blair's current approach would gain European favor even if it ended in force. Speaking from Strasbourg, he said of Mr. Blair: "He is being very firm about the importance of working through the U.N. If you go through the U.N. and you still don't get compliance from Iraq, what are you left with? Writing a letter to The Times? Running with a petition up the High Street? That is a reasonable position for Europe, and if he can keep articulating that, he will have no trouble straddling the Atlantic." Mr. Blair left the House last night to meet with newly re-elected Chancellor Schr=F6der at 10 Downing Street to help mend relations with the United States that have been described by the administration as poisoned. Mr. Schr=F6der achieved his wafer-thin margin of victory partly through an antiwar campaign that was critical of Mr. Bush's Iraq plans. Mr. Schr=F6der's trip marked a break with a German tradition of post-election travel to Paris, illustrating Britain's pivotal role as Washington's closest partner and suggesting possible new trans-Atlantic alignments. "Since the French priority is to reinforce links with the U.S. that had been endangered in the past few months, what Blair is doing is not necessarily bad for us," said Dominique Mo=EFsi, deputy director of the French Institute for International Relations. "It is discreetly satisfying for us to see the state of affairs between Germany and the U.S. because the Americans cannot have two crises, one with France and one with Germany, and now the Germans have taken over and that is good," he said. French unease at Britain's Atlanticist role is tempered by military ties within the European Union formed in St.-Malo, France, in 1998. Mr. Blair accepted a long-standing French proposal calling for a European military force under the aegis of the European Union capable of conducting military operations independently of NATO. "Since St.-Malo, there is a feeling that we are the two responsible countries in Europe, the only ones who know what war is about," Mr. Mo=EFsi said. "It is competition, but positive competition." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 05:48:16 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 05:48:16 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uX7w-0006MK-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 05:48:16 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uX6x-0002fI-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 05:47:15 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uX5e-0002f9-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 05:45:54 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8QBi6u29704 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 14:44:06 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8QBi4N29620 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 14:44:04 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: EU: The Policy Network Thread-Index: AcJlUhgvBpkKjdErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] EU: The Policy Network Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 14:47:19 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 14:47:19 +0300 I realise A-listers are very busy and all that, but if you are attending the British Labour Party conference next week you might want to stop by at this little shindig, featuring some superstars and rising talents of the European "left". The Future of the European Left - 30 Sept. 2002 -Policy Network Labour Party Conference fringe meeting Monday 30 Sept. 2002, 1-3pm, Lancaster Suite, Cliffs Hotel, Queens Promenade, Blackpool. by: Policy Network date: 30 Sep 2002 'The Future of the European Left' Discussion to be chaired by Peter Mandelson MP. Speakers include: Pascal Lamy; Dominique Strauss-Kahn; Dick Benschop. Policy Network Labour Party Conference fringe meeting on Monday 30 Sept. 2002, 1-3pm. Venue: Lancaster Suite, Cliffs Hotel, Queens Promenade, Blackpool. http://www.policy-network.org/show_art.phtml?art_id=3D1&art_date=3D2002-0= 9-30 From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 06:08:42 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 06:08:42 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uXRi-0006RP-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 06:08:42 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uXR0-0002lS-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 06:07:58 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uXQ0-0002lJ-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 06:06:56 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8QC58918971 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 15:05:08 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8QC57N18907 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 15:05:07 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message Subject: RE: [A-List] New Labour watch: David Miliband MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: [A-List] New Labour watch: David Miliband Thread-Index: AcJkokQorPlwjIkESCaqceR4Dddn0gAsmbjQ From: "Keaney Michael" To: Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 15:08:22 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 15:08:22 +0300 Tariq writes: If David Miliband has the vision as Catherine MacLeod suggests I would like to have a direct discourse with the British School Minister. Would you please let me have his e-mail address. ----- Unfortunately (?) I don't have David Miliband's contact details, beyond the usual House of Commons address (London SW1A 4AA). However his personal assistant in constituency work is deputy leader of South Tyneside council, John Temple. He can be contacted at Cllr.John.Temple@s-tyneside-mbc.gov.uk Perhaps he would be able to give you direct contact to Miliband. Best, Michael From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 08:44:17 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 08:44:17 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uZsG-0000Sz-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 08:44:16 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uZrD-0003sb-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 08:43:11 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uZpt-0003sS-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 08:41:49 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8QEe1X05359 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 17:40:01 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8QEdxN05295 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 17:39:59 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Britain/US split: The Policy Network & Japan Thread-Index: AcJlaqtoBpkKwtErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Britain/US split: The Policy Network & Japan Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 17:43:15 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 17:43:15 +0300 What to make of this? It's no surprise that Peter Mandelson retains privileged access to Tony, and that Tony uses his "talents" for various purposes. However since having resigned a second time Mandelson seems to have become something of a globetrotter, having "just happened" to be in Syria last January when Bashar Assad invited him for tea, and then turning up in Washington for the infamous State of the Union speech en route to addressing the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. Now he is a "special emissary" to the Far East, esp. Japan. What could he be doing there? It just so happens we have some leads tucked away in our A-list archive. Firstly, earlier this year a high-powered UK government team went out to Japan to tout the glories of PPPs, which the Koizumi government is flirting with. See http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2002w26/msg00068.htm The second reason that such high-level but discreet British courting of Japan should be taking place relates to European efforts to enlist a (far from reluctant) Japan in an alliance designed to countervail US power. Japanese capital investing in Britain precisely because of its EU membership is now bemoaning the UK's non-entry into the eurozone, thanks to the over-valued sterling exchange rate. Toyota, Nissan and Honda have all made representations to Tony, and Toyota very pointedly switched production to a new plant in northern France last year, rather than expand production in Derby. Tony got the message and awarded regional development assistance to Nissan so that it would keep its production facilities in north east England. However British interests, in the form of the CBI, have been courting Japanese help in pushing for a non-US global business model: See http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2002w29/msg00023.htm So Mandelson's present activities occur within a context that highlights the efforts being made by various British actors on behalf of the dominant power bloc to extricate the UK from US hegemony. And simultaneously open up some tasty markets for these very same interests. I'll be posting more on the UK Japan 21st Century Group in due course. Mandelson role as Blair's 'emissary' to Asia criticised By Paul Waugh Deputy Political Editor The Independent, 31 August 2002 Peter Mandelson, the former Northern Ireland Secretary, was the subject of fresh controversy yesterday after he was described by the Foreign Office as Tony Blair's "special emissary to East Asia". The Liberal Democrats and the Tories called on Downing Street to clarify what appeared to be a new government role for Mr Mandelson two years after he left the Cabinet. The Hartlepool MP's status was questioned when he gave a speech in Jakarta yesterday denouncing American proposals to topple Saddam Hussein as a "recipe for chaos". According to the Foreign Office's website on Indonesia, Mr Mandelson was making a trip as "Tony Blair's Special Emissary to East Asia". Although senior government sources denied that he had been given any such role, opposition parties demanded a full explanation from Downing Street. The row follows similar concerns over the status of Lord Levy, Labour's chief fundraiser and Mr Blair's personal envoy in the Middle East. Mr Mandelson was appointed earlier this year as chairman of the UK-Japan 21st Century Group. Mr Blair wrote in a parliamentary answer that he had appointed his former minister to the post, but Downing Street was later forced to retract the claim. A senior Government source said: "Peter Mandelson was not there in any official or unofficial role. He is not an envoy of the Prime Minister." But Michael Ancram, the shadow Foreign Secretary, wrote to the Prime Minister to ask what accountability Mr Mandelson would have to Parliament. "The Prime Minister will never learn. Here's a man forced out twice from ministerial positions for his behaviour, now acting as a special emissary in the Far East," he said. "Many will take this as confirmation that only Tony's cronies are eligible for such high-ranking Foreign Office roles." Norman Baker, the Liberal Democrat MP for Lewes who precipitated Mr Mandelson's second cabinet resignation, called for an inquiry into his UK-Japan role earlier this year. "The Foreign Office website has let the cat out of the bag. If the Prime Minister wants to appoint people to represent him then that is his right, but let's have Peter Mandelson answer questions in the Commons as to exactly what he is doing." It was "unhelpful" to have a parallel arrangement in which Downing Street appointees cut across the work of the Foreign Office, he said. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 09:30:19 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 09:30:19 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uaam-0000qj-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 09:30:16 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uaZi-0004Dc-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 09:29:10 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uaY5-0004DT-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 09:27:29 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8QFPfU29994 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 18:25:41 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8QFPdN29921 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 18:25:39 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Germany & the imperialist chain: capital markets Thread-Index: AcJlcQ0KBpkK1dErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Germany & the imperialist chain: capital markets Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 18:28:55 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 18:28:55 +0300 Corporate Germany divided Listed companies tend to outperform unlisted businesses and the economy as a whole Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Weekly, 20 September 2002 A deep rift is running through corporate Germany. On the one side are the listed companies that, on the whole, are highly stable, operate profitably, and continue to create jobs. On the other side is the rest of corporate Germany - partnerships and limited liability companies that are controlled by families, founders or partners. These companies lack the sting of the capital markets, the allegedly oh-so damaging hectic of daily stock valuations and quarterly reports. They represent the "Mittelstand" which politicians uniformly hail as the mythical source of employment and all economic good. Yet it is here that insolvencies, low profitability and sales difficulties pile up, and that job creation has slowed. The German economy as a whole would boast 900,000 jobs more than it does today if all companies had created as many jobs as the listed companies - and that despite continuing job cuts in the public sector. Unemployment has risen above 4 million again; layoffs at Dax blue-chip companies have been making the headlines, as have greedy managers and their all-too generous pay packages. Every week, new scandals and bankruptcies seem to widen the cracks in the foundation of capitalism. Like no other factor, announcements of layoffs at companies like Deutsche Telekom, Siemens and Bayer are adding to the public unease. How can an economic system survive that allows managers to pad their pockets while mass unemployment is rising, many are asking themselves. Thanks to their size, their international recognition and continuously available share price information, the Dax companies are in danger of becoming symbols of this "cut-throat capitalism." As always, reality is somewhat more complex. The most prominent listed companies are not the tip of an iceberg; they do not epitomize the problems of the German corporate sector as a whole. Three aspects highlight the deep cleft between "listed Germany" and the unlisted rest: First, listed companies grow faster and export more than the German economy as a whole. Second, they create markedly more jobs. Third, they are more stable and less threatened by bankruptcy and financial difficulties. Between 1997 and 2001, the German economy grew by 9.2 percent (on the basis of gross value added). The public sector made a negative contribution, with a decline of 1.7 percent. The private economy grew by 10 percent, although the years 1998, 1999 and 2001 were marked by subdued growth. The brief upswing in 2000, when the economy grew by 3.6 percent, contributed almost half of overall growth during this period. Germany's listed companies, however, showed a different development. Their net earnings - after depreciation and taxes - initially pointed steeply upward, with profits nearly tripling between 1997 and 2000. Even though earnings collapsed in 2001, the profits of Germany's listed companies grew faster between 1997 and 2001 than the German economy as a whole. An overall increase of 26 percent is equivalent to average annual earnings growth of 5.9 percent - excellent growth, if at the price of high volatility. The better results achieved by listed companies have nothing to do with the fact that capital received a larger share of the economic pie. Despite relatively strong swings, income from entrepreneurial activities overall rose by just 0.4 percent between 1997 and 2001. While the owners of listed companies got a good deal, the risk-return ratio for Germany's other companies and entrepreneurs is poor - not a promising basis for start-ups that do not have recourse to stock market financing. An oft-cited suspicion is that high profitability is possible only if strong productivity growth is coupled with job losses. Economics is seen as a game in which there has to be at least one loser - shareholders versus employees with a (suspected) home advantage for the former. But the reality is different. Between 1997 and 2001, employment in Germany rose by 2.5 percent to 34.8 million, although public-sector employment dropped by nearly 10 percent during that period. While non-listed companies extended their payrolls by 6.7 percent, listed companies took on 10 percent more workers during this period - not including their foreign workforce. If the private economy as a whole had created as many jobs as listed companies, Germany would have had 35.6 million jobs in 2001 - enough to bring unemployment down to 3.2 million. Interestingly, the best performer overall has been the much-maligned Neuer Markt technology segment. Here, the average company today employs four times as many workers as in 1997. Together with the large number of flotations in this segment, employment at Neuer Markt companies thus rose from 39,000 in 1997 to 230,000 in 2001. All else being equal, two Neuer Markt segments could thus have fulfilled Chancellor Gerhard Schr=F6der's promise to take 500,000 names off the jobless rolls. What's more, the average position created on the Neuer Markt since 1997 cost just Euro 8,000 ($7,830), compared to Euro 36,000 for a position in an eastern German job creation scheme. Even in 2001, a year in which Neuer Markt companies posted a combined loss of about Euro 4 billion, each position there cost just Euro 17,420. Listed companies such as those on the Neuer Markt create plenty of jobs, even if their profitability is below target. This is part of the concept of promoting young companies - for the business idea to bear fruit companies must first invest in the necessary infrastructure. The failure of individual businesses is not an embarrassment, but an integral and necessary part of the process. And while the number of insolvencies continues to reach new records in Germany, listed companies outside the tech sector have a surprising longevity. Of the 100 companies listed in the Dax blue-chip and MDax mid-cap indices, just four went bankrupt between 1997 and 2001. Germany's listed companies perform markedly better than the rest of corporate Germany. But what can be done to improve the performance of companies that are not listed on the stock exchange? The sting of the capital markets, which is often maligned as an incentive for short-term, flash-in-the-pan efforts, does prompt small miracles. And despite Germany's high wage costs, overregulation, shortage of qualified workers and high taxes, listed companies do well on world markets. Economic policy should therefore focus on three key measures: First, a change in corporate taxation to render stock market listings more attractive for Mittelstand companies. Second, Germany's state governments should privatize their ample remaining industrial holdings. Third, rather than intervening directly - as in the case of Mobilcom - government should strengthen such market-based, highly successful and flexible job machines as the Neuer Markt. Suitable incentives would include special write-downs on share price losses resulting from investments in Neuer Markt listings. The real economic successes of listed companies are in danger of being overlooked amid the current capital market crisis, one of the worst in decades. But listed companies are doing better than many other parts of the economy. Hence our conclusion: Despite a dramatic loss of faith in the capital market, Germany must not give up encouraging popular capitalism. More reliance on capital markets is not the problem, but has to be part of the answer. This article was taken from a collection of essays (in German) by Werner G. Seifert, CEO of Deutsche B=F6rse AG, Frankfurt, and Hans-Joachim Voth, Associate Professor of Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona, and Associate Director at the Centre for History and Economics, King's College, Cambridge From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 10:09:32 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 10:09:32 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ubCO-000106-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 10:09:08 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ubBe-0004R2-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 10:08:22 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ubB4-0004Pv-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 10:07:46 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8QG5wX22085 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 19:05:58 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8QG5uN21957 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 19:05:56 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Global Economy: death of Washington consensus? Thread-Index: AcJldq1KBpkK3tErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Global Economy: death of Washington consensus? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 19:09:12 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 19:09:12 +0300 IMF's 'Consensus' Policies Fraying By Paul Blustein Washington Post Staff Writer Thursday, September 26, 2002; Page E01 In moments of candor, the anti-globalization activists planning to storm Washington streets Friday and Saturday admit that their movement is struggling to regain momentum in the wake of last year's terrorist attacks, which dampened the appeal of militant protest and diverted attention from issues such as Third World debt cancellation. But here is the irony: While the wind may have gone from the protesters' sails, the same might be said of the free-market economic dogma promoted during much of the past couple of decades by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the institutions whose meetings this weekend are the activists' target. Thanks to anemic growth, economic crises and stubbornly high poverty rates in a number of countries that pursued IMF and World Bank-backed programs, a sense of disillusionment is spreading with the "Washington consensus," the package of policies long touted by U.S. policymakers and international lenders as keys to prosperity for the world's poor. The main elements of the consensus include policies aimed at curbing inflation, opening markets, dismantling government controls and privatizing state enterprises. The disgruntlement is manifesting itself politically in countries such as Brazil, where after eight years of rule by a government that embraced economic orthodoxy, a left-wing presidential candidate, former factory worker Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, has taken a commanding lead in next month's election. But perhaps most telling is the letdown expressed by a chorus of voices from within the economic establishment -- experts who once championed the Washington consensus. A particularly rude shock for them was the recent economic collapse in Argentina, because the Argentine government was once viewed as a star pupil of the IMF and the World Bank. Now, although mainstream economists still believe in the general wisdom of the policies they espoused, many contend that at the very least, Washington's prescriptions ought to be pushed less aggressively -- a view that has caused the fund and the bank to change their approaches in some significant ways. "It's disingenuous to negate the magnitude of the disappointment," said Ricardo Hausman, a Harvard University professor who recalled that as chief economist of the Inter-American Development Bank from 1994 to 2000, he helped convince countries that they stood to reap enormous gains by reducing the role of government in their economies and lowering barriers to trade and investment. "I fully participated in the hope, so I'm fully a participant in the disappointment." Consider some numbers for Latin America, Hausman said: Despite the adoption of extensive free-market reforms in many Latin nations, gross domestic product per average working-age person in the region has fallen 5 percent since 1998, while during the same period the comparable figure for the United States has risen 5.2 percent. "Even our star reformer, Chile, is up only 3 percent," Hausman said, which shows that instead of catching up with America as promised, "we are further and further behind." Such criticism of economic orthodoxy heartens anti-globalization activists. Although the movement has long enjoyed support from a handful of dissident economists, its leaders are now seizing upon evidence that the weight of respectable opinion is shifting toward their position. Soren Ambrose, a leader of the Fifty Years Is Enough network aimed at abolishing the IMF and World Bank, cited with relish a recent New York Times column by Princeton professor Paul Krugman, who wrote that he had once "bought into much though not all of the Washington consensus" and that "my confidence that we've been giving good advice is way down." At a news conference earlier this month to announce plans for demonstrations at the IMF-World Bank meetings, activists displayed a chart with data from a book by William Easterly, a former World Bank economist, showing that while the bank's adjustment loans were going up, economic progress in the countries receiving them was headed in the opposite direction. It would be grossly misleading to suggest that mainstream economists are abandoning their long-held beliefs and turning in favor of heavy-handed state intervention and trade protectionism. Little controversy exists among economists and policymakers over the necessity of taming inflation to foster healthy economic growth, for example, or the long-term benefits of free markets for spurring job creation. In some ways, the consensus on the benefits of free trade is stronger than ever; many African governments, and the aid group Oxfam, have taken up the rallying cry that the most pressing need for developing countries is to secure unfettered access for their products in rich countries' markets, which are often blocked or distorted by import barriers and subsidies for farm products. But much doubt has arisen over whether governments in the developing world are being prodded to move too hastily on the free-market path, because so many countries that have taken the plunge have ended up battered by speculative attacks in financial markets, or disappointed by the absence of foreign investors, or mired in corruption scandals over privatization schemes that enriched insiders. The diminished faith in the reform programs undertaken by developing countries has even infected the Cato Institute, whose scholars are renowned for their fervent advocacy of free markets. "Globalization has turned out to be a lot harder than a lot of us thought it would be," said Brink Lindsey, a Cato trade specialist. "In the early '90s, there was the sense that if you just opened your markets, and stabilized prices, and privatized industries, foreign investors would come to your door and you could enjoy rapid catch-up growth rates. And what has become painfully clear is that life is much more complicated than that." Globalization's staunch defenders point to evidence indicating that countries are well advised to open their markets. Studies by two World Bank researchers, David Dollar and Art Kraay, show that the developing world's "globalizers" -- defined as countries that have increased trade the most relative to their national income -- have enjoyed much faster growth in recent years than non-globalizers. But many economists find this argument unpersuasive, because it relies on including two giant, fast-growing countries -- China and India -- in the ranks of the globalizers, even though both the Chinese and Indian governments keep their economies closed in many important respects, and India's growth spurt began several years before it started opening up. "The irony is, China and India are hardly paradigmatic open-market economies," said Nancy Birdsall, president of the Center for Global Development and a former official at the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. Other defenders of the Washington consensus contend that countries such as Argentina run into trouble because they fail to implement sound policies rigorously enough, or because additional reforms are needed -- most notably the establishment of institutions necessary to make markets work properly, such as a decent legal and judiciary system that protects property rights. Without such institutions, after all, investors -- both foreign and domestic -- will be reluctant to sink money into productive enterprises. "Issues such as the rule of law, making contracts enforceable, reducing corruption -- these haven't been emphasized enough," said John Taylor, the U.S. Treasury undersecretary for international affairs. But these defenses of the free-market model leave some experts cold. "It's like telling countries, 'If you would only fix everything, you would grow,' " Birdsall said. "Well, I think that's a discouraging message for Brazil and Argentina, let alone Malawi. . . . Latin America had deep reforms in many respects; it has a serious web of sensible regulatory arrangements; it did a lot of privatization -- and it's going nowhere." Wherever the blame belongs for past failings, the IMF and World Bank say they have learned important lessons and have been altering their advice and lending practices accordingly. The crises in Asia's "tiger" economies, for example, showed how developing countries that allow an inflow of foreign money into their financial markets are vulnerable to disastrous, panicky withdrawals, especially if they haven't developed sound banking systems first. So instead of pressing governments to open their financial systems as it used to, the IMF now counsels that "there is no need to rush," said Horst Koehler, the fund's managing director. As for the World Bank, "We went beyond the Washington consensus long ago," said the bank's chief economist, Nicholas Stern. The bank, he noted, puts much more emphasis than it used to on helping countries develop institutions, and it is encouraging governments that borrow its money to draft their own, comprehensive "poverty reduction strategies," so that they establish "ownership" over their policies instead of grudgingly accepting recipes dictated from Washington. Still, skepticism abounds that the erstwhile practitioners of the Washington consensus have fine-tuned it so adroitly. "This is very dangerous. You don't want to throw the baby out with the bath water," Hausman said. "But you don't know how to distinguish the baby from the bath water." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 10:39:50 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 10:39:50 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ubfu-00019h-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 10:39:38 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ubfc-0004ei-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 10:39:20 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ubfD-0004eZ-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 10:38:55 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8QGb6804730 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 19:37:06 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8QGb4N04668 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 19:37:04 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK-Japan 21st Century Group Thread-Index: AcJlewdFBpkK79ErEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK-Japan 21st Century Group Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 19:40:21 +0300 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 19:40:21 +0300 The UK-Japan 21st Century Group is not the most high-profile foreign policy initiative to have captured the headlines in recent years. Largely because it doesn't capture any headlines. Until now, that is, as it is made public that Peter Mandelson is Tony Blair's "special emissary" to the Far East (i.e., Japan) and has been made chairman of the UK-Japan 21st Century Group, in addition to his responsibilities as chairman of the Policy Network, the pan-European social democratic "think tank" that is coordinating (or trying to coordinate) European integration along Third Wayish lines. UKJ21, as it might be abbreviated, was established in 1985 by Thatcher and Nakasone, as part of Thatcher's efforts to revitalise the British economy (then suffering record unemployment) by attracting as much inward investment as possible. The Japanese were only too willing to oblige, largely because of the main selling point (ironically) used by Thatcher: access to Europe. Thus auto manufacturers, electronics companies and consumer goods manufacturers rolled up, took some of the state's financial largesse and set up shop in some of the less salubrious parts of the UK where Thatcher's "industrial policy" had been to destroy whatever industry had been there. Since that time circumstances have changed, and Japanese investors can be more reassured that they have a pro-EU government at the UK end, although non-membership of the eurozone is a problem. As stated previously, that has risked provoking Japanese capital flight from Britain, as other EU countries, notably France, have reversed their economic nationalism of the 1980s and now compete to attract inward investment. Toyota chose to establish a new plant in Northern France rather than expand its existing Derby production last year, while Toshiba closed its UK operations entirely. Thus the UK government needs to keep stroking its ally, offering reassurance about its pro-eurozone intentions and offering scraps including regional development assistance to Nissan. The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has a web page posted since 1998 outlining the agreement with Britain. http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/uk/agenda21.html More news as it emerges. Michael Keaney From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 11:35:40 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:35:40 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ucY6-0001iZ-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:35:38 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ucXp-0004x6-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:35:21 -0600 Received: from maynard.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.243]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ucXD-0004wx-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:34:43 -0600 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by maynard.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 17ucXA-0002tc-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 13:34:40 -0400 Message-ID: <057001c26581$64449d00$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: References: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Subject: [A-List] Some guidance please Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 13:23:09 -0400 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 13:23:09 -0400 I'm working on a "corporate campaign" strategy here, and we need to assess whether a couple of companies have any of the prognostic indicators of an eventual Enron-style scandal. Any help on what indices I might consult, and what I should be looking for, would be very helpful. Thanks. Stan From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 17:53:51 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 17:53:51 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uiS7-0003W8-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 17:53:51 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uiRp-0007EJ-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 17:53:33 -0600 Received: from mta6.snfc21.pbi.net ([206.13.28.240]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uiRC-0007DM-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 17:52:54 -0600 Received: from sabri ([66.124.235.137]) by mta6.snfc21.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H32004OTL05SD@mta6.snfc21.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 16:52:53 -0700 (PDT) From: Sabri Oncu To: ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Some guidance please Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 16:55:29 -0700 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 16:55:29 -0700 > I'm working on a "corporate campaign" strategy here, > and we need to assess whether a couple of companies > have any of the prognostic indicators of an eventual > Enron-style scandal. > > Any help on what indices I might consult, and what I > should be looking for, would be very helpful. > > Thanks. > > Stan Stan, One very fruitful area to look into in this regard is energy companies. I would look at Dynergy and El Paso to start with. Some key words would be "round trip trades", "special purpose entities", "energy derivatives" and the like. There is an economist at the Haas School by the name of Severin Borenstein: http://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/borenstein.html http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/borenste/ and he has some papers on energy markets that may be useful. Also check http://paleale.eecs.berkeley.edu/ucei/ the home page of University of California Energy Institute. This testimony may be useful to determine what to look for: http://www.senate.gov/~gov_affairs/012402turner.htm Of course, energy is just one area. I would pay attention to investment banks too. GE and GE Capital Services may also be interesting to look at. Best, Sabri From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Thu Sep 26 18:11:43 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 18:11:43 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uijP-0003ZK-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 18:11:43 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uij4-0007Ne-00; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 18:11:22 -0600 Received: from maynard.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.243]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uiie-0007NV-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 18:10:56 -0600 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by maynard.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 17uiiS-0004V2-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 20:10:44 -0400 Message-ID: <05fd01c265b8$b52fed00$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: References: Subject: Re: [A-List] Some guidance please MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 19:59:09 -0400 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 19:59:09 -0400 They're both energy companies. Duke Power and Progress Energy. Thanks, comrade. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Sabri Oncu" To: "ALIST" Sent: Thursday, September 26, 2002 7:55 PM Subject: [A-List] Some guidance please > > I'm working on a "corporate campaign" strategy here, > > and we need to assess whether a couple of companies > > have any of the prognostic indicators of an eventual > > Enron-style scandal. > > > > Any help on what indices I might consult, and what I > > should be looking for, would be very helpful. > > > > Thanks. > > > > Stan > > Stan, > > One very fruitful area to look into in this regard is energy > companies. I would look at Dynergy and El Paso to start with. > Some key words would be "round trip trades", "special purpose > entities", "energy derivatives" and the like. > > There is an economist at the Haas School by the name of Severin > Borenstein: > > http://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/borenstein.html > http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/borenste/ > > and he has some papers on energy markets that may be useful. Also > check > > http://paleale.eecs.berkeley.edu/ucei/ > > the home page of University of California Energy Institute. This > testimony may be useful to determine what to look for: > > http://www.senate.gov/~gov_affairs/012402turner.htm > > Of course, energy is just one area. I would pay attention to > investment banks too. GE and GE Capital Services may also be > interesting to look at. > > Best, > > Sabri > > From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 04:55:45 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 04:55:45 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17usmf-0006Gf-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 04:55:45 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17usmL-0002v5-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 04:55:25 -0600 Received: from outbound.mailmty.avantel.net.mx ([200.38.95.244] helo=smtpout1-1.mailmty.avantel.net.mx) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ubju-0004fl-00 for ; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 10:43:46 -0600 Received: from mara ([148.240.236.231]) by smtpout1.mailmty.avantel.net.mx (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 1.4 (built Aug 5 2002)) with SMTP id <0H3200M670ZXD3@smtpout1.mailmty.avantel.net.mx> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:40:48 -0500 (CDT) From: mara la madrid To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Message-id: <001401c2657b$19e33a60$e7ecf094@mara> MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2615.200 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Content-type: multipart/alternative; boundary="Boundary_(ID_Xt5r6YSg9JK+biOGYGUJMA)" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Firmas al presidente uruguayo por una mujer desaparecida WWW.JUANGELMAN.ORG Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Reply-To: mara la madrid List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:38:08 -0500 Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:38:08 -0500 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. --Boundary_(ID_Xt5r6YSg9JK+biOGYGUJMA) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: quoted-printable Estimados amig@s:=20 Se ha iniciado una campa=F1a internacional de recolecci=F3n de firmas al = pie de una carta dirigida al presidente uruguayo Jorge Batlle, = solicit=E1ndole que favorezca el hallazgo de los restos de Mar=EDa = Claudia Garc=EDa Irureta Goyena de Gelman, asesinada en 1977 en = Montevideo por represores de la dictadura militar del Uruguay para = robarle su hija reci=E9n nacida. Esta es una de las acciones que = acompa=F1an una denuncia penal que con el mismo fin se ha iniciado ante = un tribunal de Montevideo. Se ha abierto una p=E1gina web para la recolecci=F3n de estas firmas: = www.juangelman.org y les rogamos que contribuyan con las de ustedes, asi = como que distribuyan este correo electr=F3nico entre sus corresponsales. = En la p=E1gina web mencionada hay informaci=F3n sobre el caso. Muchas gracias. Juan Gelman =20 Dear friends: An international campaign of signatures in a letter addressed to = Uruguayan president Jorge Batlle has began. The letter asks Dr. Batlle = to take steps to find the remains of Mar=EDa Claudia Garc=EDa Irureta = Goyena de Gelman, murdered in Montevideo by the security forces of the = Uruguayan dictatorship; it happened in 1977 and that crime was = perpetrated to steal her two-months-old little baby. The letter is one = of the actions that support the proceedings initiated before a criminal = court of Montevideo to find Mar=EDa Claudia=B4s body. Please, open the www.juangelman.org website to add your signature and = send this e-mail to your friends and correspondents. You can find = information about the case in the website. Thank you very much. Juan Gelman =20 --Boundary_(ID_Xt5r6YSg9JK+biOGYGUJMA) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: quoted-printable
Estimados amig@s:=20

Se ha=20 iniciado una campa=F1a internacional de recolecci=F3n de firmas al pie = de una carta=20 dirigida al presidente uruguayo Jorge Batlle, solicit=E1ndole que = favorezca el=20 hallazgo de los restos de Mar=EDa Claudia=20 Garc=EDa Irureta Goyena de Gelman, asesinada en 1977 en Montevideo = por=20 represores de la dictadura militar del Uruguay para robarle su hija = reci=E9n=20 nacida. Esta es una de las acciones que acompa=F1an una denuncia penal = que con el=20 mismo fin se ha iniciado ante un tribunal de = Montevideo.

Se ha=20 abierto una p=E1gina web para la recolecci=F3n de estas firmas: www.juangelman.org y les = rogamos que=20 contribuyan con las de ustedes, asi como que distribuyan este = correo=20 electr=F3nico entre sus corresponsales. En la p=E1gina web = mencionada hay=20 informaci=F3n sobre el caso.

 Muchas = gracias.

 Juan Gelman

 

Dear=20 friends:

An=20 international campaign of signatures in a letter addressed to Uruguayan=20 president Jorge Batlle has began. The letter asks Dr. Batlle to take = steps to=20 find the remains of Mar=EDa Claudia Garc=EDa Irureta Goyena de=20 Gelman, murdered in Montevideo by the security forces of the = Uruguayan=20 dictatorship; it happened in 1977 and that crime was perpetrated to = steal her=20 two-months-old little baby. The letter is one of the actions that = support the=20 proceedings initiated before a criminal court of Montevideo to find = Mar=EDa=20 Claudia=B4s body.

Please,=20 open the www.juangelman.org = website to=20 add your signature and send this e-mail to your friends and=20 correspondents. You can find information about the case in = the=20 website.

Thank=20 you very much.

Juan=20 Gelman

 

--Boundary_(ID_Xt5r6YSg9JK+biOGYGUJMA)-- From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 05:18:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:18:36 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ut8l-0006Lm-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:18:35 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ut8Y-00032P-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:18:22 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ut7c-00032G-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:17:24 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBFVS26233 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:15:31 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBFTN26167 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:15:29 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK economy: GDP growth miracle Thread-Index: AcJmF0bfJyoh3NIfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK economy: GDP growth miracle Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:18:50 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:18:50 +0300 Can't cook, won't clean: workers buy home services By Paul Peachey The Independent, 27 September 2002 Washing and cooking are dead; long live the lifestyle manager. The response of the young urban professional to increasing office hours and a hectic lifestyle is to ditch the housework, according to a new study. Money spent by affluent workers on cleaners, laundry services, delivered gourmet meals and a host of other personal services is set to rise sharply over the next five years, according to market analyst Datamonitor. Large City firms are including the services of lifestyle managers on new contracts as a lure to potential employees instead of offering extra cash, according to researchers. The lifestyle manager sorts out everyday tasks such as cleaning and travel arrangements to save time for workers putting in long hours at the office. While basic chores are most in demand, the so-called concierge services have also reported customers requesting a Cornish language teacher and a tantric sex tutor. The trend, which has spread from the United States, comes as unions have targeted leading financial institutions, claiming many were forcing staff into working excessive hours. Dominik Nosalik, analyst for Datamonitor, said: "It's very much targeted at the busy executive who has a lot of cash and not a lot of time." However, the survey indicated the trend was not just about workers with no time, pointing to the anticipated rise of the "service junkie". Researchers blamed a skills shortage in cooking and cleaning as well as fewer hours spent at home by high-earning dual income families. The study of workers in seven European countries predicted that 16 per cent of households would employ cleaners by 2006, compared with 10 per cent in 2001. Home laundry services, only used by a few people, are expected to increase sharply by 17 per cent a year, according to the study. It also found that while nearly three-quarters of Europeans had used a home meal delivery service at least once in 2001 that figure was expected to rise by five per cent a year until 2006. Both men and women were said to use the services equally. One anticipated growth area is among groups of young workers sharing a home because of the problems of high property prices. TenUK, a London-based company with members paying between =A350 and =A3150 a month, has seen its business expand rapidly with 7,000 households now using its services. Chief executive Alex Cheatle said: "We do this to make people's lives easier by allowing them to delegate to us anything they don't have the energy, expertise or time to manage themselves." He said about half of the requests were for domestic chores such as the hiring of tradesmen. "Once we were asked to hire a tarantula, which we did. The difficult things are quite easy to sort out," he said. Rob Crouch, who has his own design company, said he has used the service for 18 months as an alternative to employing a personal assistant. Mr Crouch, 32, of Islington, north London, has also used it to buy a car and for building work at his home. "Employing a tradesman can be a worry. This takes away that slight concern even though I could probably have got the same builder out of the phone book," he said. The analysis also highlighted the growth of gourmet food services. Y-Cook, based in London, specialises in home deliveries for small dinner parties and exhausted workers unwilling to cook when they return home. Managing director Charlie Hastie said: "The idea is not for foie gras and truffles but meals for people who work hard, don't have much time and have got bored of eating pizza." From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 05:20:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:20:37 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utAj-0006M0-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:20:37 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utAU-000333-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:20:22 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17ut9m-00032u-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:19:38 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBHjk27996 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:17:45 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBHhN27934 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:17:43 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Tariq Ali on al-Jazeera Thread-Index: AcJmF5a3Jyoh4tIfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Tariq Ali on al-Jazeera Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:21:04 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:21:04 +0300 Diary Tariq Ali London Review of Books, Vol 24 No 16 22 August 2002 In Cairo and Abu Dhabi, the two Arab capitals I have visited this year, street and palace are for once in harmony. A pre-emptive strike against Saddam Hussein on the grounds that he might, at some point in the future, authorise the production of nuclear weapons, would be, for the people of the region, a classic display of imperial double-standards. They know that the only country which possesses both nuclear and chemical weapons is Israel. Arab public opinion has not been so united for decades. And a cable television station, al-Jazeera ('the Peninsula'), has played a crucial part in both promoting and symbolising this unity. It has raised mass consciousness in the region, by providing a ruthless analysis of what is wrong with the Arab world. Unity was the recurring theme of the nationalist period of Arab political history. First there was Nasser and his dream of a united Arab republic. Then defeat in war. Then the laments of exiled poets - Nizar Qabbani from Syria, Mahmoud Darwish from Palestine and Muthaffar al-Nawab from Iraq. The Egyptian diva Um Kalthoum sang their poetry and was revered. Then darkness. The 1991 Gulf War demoralised and atomised the Arab world. Secular dissenters continued to meet in the cafes of Damascus, Baghdad, Beirut and Cairo, but could speak only in whispers. Elsewhere, mosques became the organising centres for a confessional resistance to the New Order and the Great Satan that underpinned it. The state media networks continued to broadcast propaganda of the crudest kind; criticism of government was unheard of. Then, in 1996, al-Jazeera arrived. It is, as Mohammed el-Nawawy and Adel Iskandar explain in their new book,* a TV news channel that defies taboos and prohibitions. Arab viewers abandoned the state networks overnight and al-Jazeera's newsreaders and talk-show hosts became instant celebrities. Nothing like this had been witnessed since the early 1960s, when nationalist radio stations in Cairo, Baghdad and Damascus issued daily incitements to listeners to topple every crowned head in the region. The Jordanian King was nearly overthrown and the Saudi monarchy seriously destabilised. In both countries Western aid helped to crush the nationalist revolts. Al-Jazeera has no such ambitions: the men running the channel are only too aware that a crowned head, the eccentric Emir of Qatar, provides the funds and the headquarters for their operation. The Emir has also allowed the US to construct the largest military base in the region, which boasts a recently completed 13,000 foot runway to handle heavy bombers. Iraq will no doubt be attacked from this base while on al-Jazeera commentators denounce US aggression. The idea of a semi-independent Arab TV network was first suggested by BBC World Service journalists and supported by the Foreign Office. A deal was signed with Orbit Radio and Television Service to provide a news programme in Arabic for Orbit's Middle East channel. But Orbit was Saudi-owned, and its financiers were unwilling to allow news bulletins critical of the Saudi Kingdom. The project collapsed in April 1996 after footage of a public execution was broadcast. The BBC retired hurt and the Arab journalists who had been made redundant began to search for a new home. They were lucky. Their quest coincided with a change of rulers in the tiny state of Qatar. In 1995, the old Emir, a traditionalist, was deposed by his son, Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, who promised to modernise the statelet. Starting with a dramatic gesture, he abolished the Ministry of Information. When informed of the collapse of the BBC venture, he offered the journalists a headquarters in Doha and $140 million to restart operations. Sheikh Hamad's father and grandfather had together owned 452 cars, including ones hand-built for them. A TV station must have seemed cheap by comparison, and has given the Sheikhdom more visibility and prestige than it has ever had. Encouraged by the response to his action, Hamad allowed women to vote and to stand as candidates against men in municipal elections in 1999. This was a shot across the Saudi bows and was recognised as such. Virtually none of the journalists who came to work for the new channel was a local. The Syrian-born Faisal al-Kasim, al-Jazeera's most controversial host and now one of the most respected journalists in the Arab world, studied drama at Hull and spent a decade as the anchor of the BBC's Arabic Service. His show, The Opposite Direction, features political debates and confrontations conducted with an intensity rarely seen on Western networks. When I met him in Abu Dhabi he had just finished an interview with the local paper and was fending off other journalists and well-wishers. I asked whether the complaints about his show had started to drop away: 'They never stop,' he replied. 'People can't believe that I choose the guests and the subjects. No authority has ever tried to influence or censor me and I have much more freedom than I ever did at the BBC.' In the early days, the Qatari Government received at least one official complaint about the channel every day from fellow Arab Governments - five hundred in the first year alone. Gaddafi withdrew his Ambassador from Qatar after the station broadcast an interview with a Libyan opposition leader; Iraq complained when the channel revealed the amount of money that had been spent on Saddam Hussein's birthday celebrations; Tunisia was angry at having been accused of human rights violations; Iranian newspapers resented 'slurs' against Ayatollah Khomeini; Algeria cut off the electricity in several cities to prevent its citizens from watching a programme that accused its Army of complicity in several massacres; Arafat objected to Hamas leaders being interviewed, and Hamas was angered by the appearance of Israeli politicians and generals on The Opposite Direction. The Saudi and Egyptian Governments were enraged at criticisms made by dissidents on al-Jazeera. As loyal allies, both countries have had a relatively good press in the West. Before 11 September it required the death of a Westerner in Saudi Arabia to focus attention on the Kingdom, but the furore never lasted long. Over the last decade, the Saudis have spent hundreds of millions of pounds to keep Western and Arab media empires and their employees on side. Al-Jazeera's broadsides were viewed as treachery. Riyadh and Cairo put massive pressure on Qatar to muzzle the station, but the Emir ignored the protests and his Government denied that the channel was the instrument of Qatari foreign policy. During its early years, al-Jazeera was warmly welcomed in Washington and Jerusalem. Thomas Friedman, the New York Times columnist, celebrated the birth of the station with a bucketful of praise: it marked, he said, the dawn of Arab freedom. Ehud Ya'ari was similarly praising two years ago in the Jerusalem Report: 'Out of a modest, low-rise prefab, five minutes' drive from the Emir's diwan, the tiny Sheikhdom of Qatar is now producing a commodity much in demand in the Arab world: freedom.' The channel's 'powerful video signals', he continued, 'are gradually changing the cultural and political order in the Middle East'. What happened last September put a stop to these eulogies, especially after al-Jazeera broadcast interviews with bin Laden and his Egyptian deputy, al-Zawahiri. The bin Laden interviews were banned on Western TV on the spurious grounds that they might contain coded instructions for future terrorist hits. In fact, it was because bin Laden's soft features undermined the portrayal of him as evil incarnate. A senior TV producer in Berlin complained to me last October that his ten-year-old son, after seeing bin Laden on the news, had remarked: 'Papa, he looks like Jesus.' Qatar now came under very heavy pressure to do something about al-Jazeera. Maureen Quinn, the US Ambassador, delivered a strongly worded complaint to the Foreign Minister. It had little impact. In October, Colin Powell was sent to browbeat the Emir, who once again defended the freedom of the press and stressed that the state could not interfere with what he described as a 'private commercial operation'. US officials who met al-Jazeera executives were heard politely and told that the channel would be delighted to interview the American President or his nominees: Condoleezza Rice, Tony Blair and Colin Powell were allowed unlimited time to explain their point of view. The effect of these broadcasts on Arab public opinion was non-existent. When the bombing of Afghanistan began, al-Jazeera was the only TV network sending out regular reports. And so began its dazzling ascent. Its footage was eagerly sought, bought, carefully edited and shown on CNN, BBC and every major European network. Then the building in Kabul it was using as a temporary studio was bombed, just as a BBC journalist using its facilities had begun to broadcast a live report. He hit the floor and we witnessed the 'accidental bombing' live on our TV screens. When a Belgrade TV station was targeted by Nato forces in 1999, Clinton and Blair admitted the bombing was deliberate, and justified it on the grounds that 'deliberate misinformation' was being broadcast. Qatar could hardly be categorised as an enemy and so the spin-doctors were far more careful when it came to explaining the bombing in Kabul: the building was targeted, they claimed, because of 'reports' that it had housed al-Qaida suspects, and they hadn't known that it was al-Jazeera's base. It is on the second front of the 'war against terror', however, that al-Jazeera's coverage has made the most significant impact. After Israeli tanks entered Nablus earlier this month, the channel broadcast a story about the following incident (the description here comes from LAW, a Palestinian human rights organisation): Khaled Sif (41), who is married and has four children, received a call on his cellular phone. In order to get a better signal he went to the balcony. The moment he reached the balcony, Israeli forces shot him in the head and killed him. After he heard the shot, Muhammad Faroniya, who is married and has six children, went to the balcony. Israeli forces opened fire and also shot Muhammad Faroniya, wounding him in his chest and abdomen. Mahmoud Faroniya, Muhammad's brother, tried to save his brother, but Israeli forces pointed their guns at him and he was prevented from doing so. Muhammad bled to death. According to eyewitnesses, Israeli forces deliberately left Muhammad Faroniya bleeding for ninety minutes. The daily coverage on al-Jazeera of stories such as this one stands in contrast to what is shown in Europe, let alone the United States. CNN established its reputation during the Gulf War through the work of its correspondent, Peter Arnett, who remained in Baghdad and whose reports of civilian casualties and the bombing of non-military targets enraged the US, with the result that Western Governments are now much more careful to control access to information during times of conflict. They also try hard to stop anyone else covering the stories they are trying to suppress. Having failed to curb al-Jazeera's influence, however, the US is now going to try to mimic its success. With a war in Iraq seemingly imminent - a war about which the West is profoundly divided, and for which there is no support at all in the Arab world - there are plans to launch a satellite channel in Arabic funded by the US Information Service, to which can be added the expertise of CNN and BBC World. The Israelis have already launched their own version, with little effect. The notion that the Arabs are brainwashed and all that is needed to set them right is regular doses of Bush and Blair is to ignore every reality of the region. But the plot is far advanced. 'What will they name their channel,' I asked Faisal al-Kasim. 'The Empire?' 'No', he said. 'They have a name for it already. Al-Haqiqat.' That translates neatly into Russian as 'Pravda'. Footnotes * Al-Jazeera: How the Free Arab News Network Scooped the World and Changed the Middle East (Westview, 228 pp., =A316.99, 19 July, 0 8133 4017 9). From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 05:21:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:21:37 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utBh-0006MB-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:21:37 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utBS-00033e-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:21:22 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utB2-00033V-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:20:56 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBJ3i29014 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:19:03 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBJ2N28952 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:19:02 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK labour militancy & public order Thread-Index: AcJmF8YfJyoh6NIfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK labour militancy & public order Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:22:23 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:22:23 +0300 Strike cover puts airport fire safety 'in danger' By Barrie Clement Transport Editor The Independent, 27 September 2002 The Government is determined that air travel should continue as normal during threatened fire strikes next month despite admitting yesterday that emergency cover at airports will be "much more limited". Fifty-year-old Green Goddess fire engines, crewed by soldiers with as little as five weeks' training, will provide back-up to airport fire services in the event of a major disaster. Today ballot papers will be sent out to the 50,000 members of local authority fire brigades who are expected to vote overwhelmingly for national stoppages over pay. Andy Gilchrist, general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union, said: "It is clear that adequate fire cover at airports cannot be provided during strikes. Anyone claiming otherwise will be putting the safety of passengers at risk." Officials at the Civil Aviation Authority have expressed concern about contingency plans for the threatened. They have called on senior fire officers at Britain's airports to draw up strategies to cope. While fire services at airports, which are not involved in the dispute, must be able to deal with most potential accidents involving aircraft, local brigades are expected to provide support during major incidents. A spokesman for the CAA said the onus was on airports to meet regulations and that it was monitoring the situation. An official at the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister admitted that the back-up service provided by the Green Goddesses was "much more limited" than that provided by local authority brigades. However, ministers are determined to ensure that air travel continues. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 05:24:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:24:36 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utEa-0006OB-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:24:36 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utEL-0003AD-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:24:21 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utD5-00038Y-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:23:03 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBLAR31107 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:21:10 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBL9N31034 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:21:09 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: France: Socialist Party recriminations Thread-Index: AcJmGBEoJyoh79IfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] France: Socialist Party recriminations Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:24:29 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:24:29 +0300 Jospin's silence is broken by his wife By John Lichfield in Paris The Independent, 27 September 2002 Five months ago, the Socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin, beaten in the first round of the presidential election, vanished from French politics. Since then, he has not said a word in public. To the consternation of some of his former colleagues, the wounded Jospin silence has finally been broken - not by Monsieur but by Madame. Sylviane Agacinski, a respected writer and philosophy teacher, has published her diary of her husband's disastrous campaign and the first weeks of self-imposed exile in his holiday home on the Ile de R=E9, near La Rochelle. There is nothing especially startling in the book. Ms Agacinski is extremely rude about the eventual victor, President Jacques Chirac. She says his "cynical" law and order campaign helped the far right. She criticises voters for their lack of judgement in choosing a man with such a dishonest record. She also criticises the left, which she says prefers "powerless rebellion" to the messy compromise of government, and blames the media for ruining her husband's chances by presenting an artificially defeatist picture of France. The publication of the book, Journal Interrompu (Interrupted Diary), has been taken by senior figures on the left and by some of the press as a sign that Mr Jospin is planning a comeback. One Socialist said he was convinced that, Napoleon-like, Mr Jospin was awaiting the moment when he would be recalled. "He wants to be wanted again and he is convinced that the time will come." But Ms Agacinski denies the book was published with any such intentions. Mr Jospin came third in the first round of the election on 21 April, behind Mr Chirac and the far-right leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen. In an interview with Le Monde, his wife said he still feels betrayed by the hundred of thousands of left-wing supporters who failed to vote. "People come up to him on the street and say, 'Come back, we need you.' He tells them, 'I was there on 21 April. It was you who weren't there.'" From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 05:27:36 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:27:36 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utHU-0006OS-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:27:36 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utHG-0003Au-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:27:22 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utGJ-0003Al-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:26:24 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBOV400951 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:24:31 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBOSN00823 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:24:28 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Germany: new economy bull Thread-Index: AcJmGIhLJyoh9tIfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Germany: new economy bull Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:27:49 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:27:49 +0300 Scandals and bankruptcies destroy Germany's Neuer Markt By Rachel Stevenson The Independent, 27 September 2002 The German stock exchange, Deutsche B=F6rse, will scrap its ailing Neuer Markt technology index by the end of the year after bankruptcies and insider-dealing scandals destroyed investor confidence and the credibility of the index. The Neuer Markt was established five years ago with the aim of rivalling New York's Nasdaq index, which lists high-risk, high-growth technology stocks and took off during the dot.com boom. Many other countries set up similar indices as the demand to invest in technology stocks took hold. At the Neuer Markt's height, shares would rise by as much as 70 per cent on their first day of trading on the index. The Neuer Markt, however, has been beset by more serious problems than the bursting of the technology bubble. A number of companies listed on the exchange have gone bankrupt, directors have been charged with insider dealing and fraud, and accounts have been questioned. The value of companies on the Neuer Markt rose to EUR440bn (=A3276bn) at its peak in March 2000 but has fallen by 95 per cent since then. Alastair Duffy, manager of Aegon Asset Management's European smaller companies fund, said the index was killed by the bad reputation of its stocks. "High-growth companies that needed a lot of finance would look for a listing on Neuer Markt - it was a high-profile index. But companies listed on it have had issues with fraud, directors being jailed, and some of the business models have been very suspect. It became the last place you would want to list a business because of the negative associations." The decision to discontinue Neuer Markt is part of a wider shake-up of the way in which German companies are listed. Companies wanting to trade on the German indices will have to comply with a set of vigorous reporting standards before they can seek a listing. Instead of trading through a stand-alone index, technology stocks will be brought in to the main exchange where companies will be divided by sector. A segment for small to mid-cap companies will sit underneath the DAX, Germany's equivalent to the FTSE 100. Volker Potthoff, a director at Deutsche B=F6rse, said: "We will safeguard maximum transparency with clear rules and provide a consistent index world to support their investment decisions." A spokesman for the London Stock Exchange yesterday said it was fully committed to its technology index, Techmark. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 05:29:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:29:33 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utJN-0006Og-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:29:33 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utJB-0003BY-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:29:21 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utHt-0003BM-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:28:01 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBQ8h01962 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:26:08 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBQ5N01840 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:26:05 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Britain/US split: Iraq Thread-Index: AcJmGMIcJyoh/NIfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Britain/US split: Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:29:26 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:29:26 +0300 We are sleepwalking into a reckless war of aggression Britain must loosen what is now a profoundly dangerous alliance Seumas Milne Friday September 27, 2002 The Guardian The world is now undergoing a crash course of political education in the new realities of global power. In case anyone was still in any doubt about what they might mean, the Bush doctrine (set out last Friday in the US National Security Strategy) laid bare the ground rules of the new imperium. The US will in future brook no rival in power or military prowess, will spread still further its network of garrison bases in every continent, and will use its armed might to promote a "single sustainable model for national success" (its own), through unilateral pre-emptive attacks if necessary. In the following week, Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld accused the German chancellor of "poisoning" relations by daring to win an election with a declaration of foreign policy independence. Even the Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy felt moved to accuse the US of "imperialism". But it has been Al Gore, winner of the largest number of votes in the last US presidential election, who blurted out the unvarnished truth: that the overweening recklessness of the US government has fostered fear across the world, not at what "terrorists are going to do, but at what we are going to do". Some, however, are having trouble keeping up. In parliament, many MPs seem determined to sleepwalk into a war of aggression, hiding behind the fiction that all will be resolved if United Nations weapons inspectors are allowed to go in and finish the disarmament of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. Tony Blair was at pains to soothe their anxieties on Tuesday, as he will be next week at the Labour conference in Blackpool. The aim, he assured them, was simply to get rid of weapons of mass destruction under the auspices of the UN. If the regime changed as a byproduct, so much the better. But yes, Saddam Hussein could save himself by compliance. It's only necessary to listen briefly to the chorus of administration voices in Washington insisting on the exact opposite, however, to realise this is a fraud - and that Blair knows it. From the president downwards, they have made utterly clear that regime change remains their policy, and force their favoured method - with or without a UN resolution and whether or not Saddam complies with inspections. And they are the ones making the decisions. What is actually happening is that Blair, as Bush's senior international salesman, is providing political cover for a policy which is opposed throughout the world, using the time-honoured New Labour methods of spin and "sequencing": drawing his government and MPs into a succession of positions intended to lock them into acceptance of the final outcome. So while Rumsfeld - the man who as President Reagan's envoy came to Baghdad in March 1984 to offer US support to Saddam, on the same day Iraq launched a chemical weapons attack on Iranian troops - rages on about a "decapitation strategy" for his former allies, Blair has been busy promoting Britain's dossier of assertion, conjecture and intelligence speculation to soften up public opinion for war. There is nothing whatever in the dossier, as the former Tory foreign secretary Malcolm Rifkind said this week, to suggest that Iraq is any more of a threat than it was in the days when the US and Britain were arming it - in fact the opposite, as would be expected after 12 years of sanctions and seven years' weapons inspections. But more importantly, the Iraqi government's announcement that it intends to allow UN inspectors free and unfettered access has already stolen the dossier's rather modest thunder. After all, it should soon be possible to put its claims seriously to the test. That is presumably why Bush immediately threatened to veto the inspectors' return without a new, more aggressive UN resolution and why Condoleezza Rice has been trying to revive discredited claims of links between Iraq and al-Qaida. In spite of Russia's insistence yesterday that inspectors can go back without a new UN resolution, Blair at least is convinced that support can be won for a more hawkish form of words. Given the threats and bribes that are routinely used to corral crucial votes - and the carve-up of Iraq's oil that the US has been dangling in front of Russia and France - that seems entirely possible. What is highly unlikely, though, is that any resolution will be passed explicitly authorising invasion, occupation and regime change - in violation of the UN charter - which is what is actually intended. Expect, instead, some implied threat of force, which could then be used to create provocations, trigger an attack and be claimed as UN authorised. But it would be nothing of the sort. Nor would it reflect the genuine will of the international community, but only further serve to discredit the UN as a cipher for American power, to be used or discarded as and when convenient. That process was accelerated this week when the only Middle Eastern state with an advanced programme of weapons of mass destruction - nuclear-armed Israel - refused to comply with a UN security council resolution demanding an immediate end to its destruction of Palestinian compounds in Ramallah because it said it was "one-sided". No action is expected. But then Israel is a serial flouter of UN security council resolutions - and some resolutions are treated more seriously than others. The planned US invasion of Iraq will increase the threat of war throughout the world. By legitimising pre-emptive attacks, it will lower the threshold for the use of force and make aggression by powerful states more likely. It will encourage nuclear proliferation, as states rush to get hold of some protective deterrent. It will damage the fabric of international law and multilateral treaties. It will encourage terrorism by pouring oil on the flames of anti-western rage. It also risks creating a humanitarian disaster in Iraq - on top of the terrible human toll exacted by sanctions. Nor is it easy to believe that a US-orchestrated regime change in Iraq will lead to democracy, or that the US would be likely to accept the kind of government free elections might produce. The last time Britain and the US called the shots in Baghdad, in 1958, there were 10,000 political prisoners, parties were banned, the press was censored and torture was commonplace. For the US, this war is not mainly about Iraq at all, but about the implementation of its new doctrine and the reconstruction of the entire region. For Tony Blair, it is about his "article of faith" in the centrality of the American relationship and the need to pay a "blood price" to maintain it. For the British people, across the political spectrum, it should highlight the moral and democratic necessity of starting to loosen what has become a profoundly dangerous alliance. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 05:35:43 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:35:43 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utPL-0006Pj-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:35:43 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utP0-0003CP-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:35:23 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utOb-0003CG-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:34:57 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBX3r09549 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:33:03 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBX2N09485 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:33:02 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK corporate state: PPPs Thread-Index: AcJmGbraJyoiA9IfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK corporate state: PPPs Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:36:24 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:36:24 +0300 While Blair and Brown stand firm opposing the left opposition to PPPs, even Polly Toynbee senses that there is an increasingly gaping credibility gap between Blair's rhetoric and the reality as it manifests itself to workers unfortunate enough to be part of those organisations "transferred" to the private sector, and the service users unfortunate enough to become "customers". This has the potential to become Blair's poll tax, since he is showing remarkably similar stubborn traits as his predecessor. Of course Blair is probably much more aware, unlike Thatcher, of other forces circling him and which need to be assuaged in his delicate game of brinkmanship. Namely, those financial interests and industrial groups (potential Labour Party donors) that need to be kept sweet until UK eurozone membership is made reality. See http://www.columbia.edu/~lnp3/msg20080.html Blair: don't defy me on PFI deals Michael White and David Walker Friday September 27, 2002 The Guardian Tony Blair today warns increasingly vocal Labour critics of his sweeping changes to public services that they risk becoming "prisoners" of an outdated model of the welfare state created by the party's heroic generation after 1945. In a full-blooded defence of the private finance initiative (PFI) strategy, made today in the Guardian on the eve of next week's turbulent Labour conference, the prime minister insists that the role of private finance in modernising the public sector must grow if voters are to get the schools, hospitals and public transport they expect. Urging MPs, activists and unions to embrace change, he writes: "Where we have been reformers, we have left great legacies. But Labour's failure in the 1960s and 1970s to reform industrial relations and the conduct of strikes aided the return of the Tories and their destructive policies" - a renewed threat under Iain Duncan Smith's leadership, ministers believe. Mr Blair's 10,000-word, personal essay of political philosophy comes in a Fabian Society pamphlet called The Courage of Our Convictions. It is intended to persuade wavering delegates that, apart from Iraq, the domestic reform agenda is his first priority. Changes to how such services as the NHS work - to become more consumer-orientated and efficient - are as important as the extra billions which Gordon Brown's spending review is pouring into health and education, Mr Blair believes. "We reject the pessimists and the Tories who believe increasing investment would only be pouring more money into a bottomless pit. Their option is privatised services for the better off and cheap 'safety net' public services for the poor," Mr Blair writes. The prime minister's challenge came as his chief lieutenants in the cabinet, the chancellor and John Prescott, rejected trade union calls, to be debated at the Blackpool conference, for a moratorium on new PFI projects for 12 weeks while the national audit office conducts a rapid value-for-money review on private sector deals. Unions fear such deals will erode jobs and services. Rejecting claims that PFI is the equivalent of Tory-style privatisation, the chancellor accused his critics of "ideological dogma" that would leave hospitals half-built and children at risk. He told them: "There will be no moratorium, for 12 weeks or 12 months. The idea that you can have a moratorium is completely unacceptable." At his side, Mr Prescott, the unions' best friend in cabinet, denounced "unjustified" attacks on PFI and the parallel public/private partnership (PPP) for the London Underground, using techniques which he said have been greatly improved since 1997. "PPP and PFI are nothing to be scared of. They are just a different way of providing a public service. PPPs are an essential part of the story and they are here to stay," the deputy prime minister said at a hastily convened press conference during the Commonwealth finance ministers' meeting in London. Unions reacted with anger. John Edmonds of the GMB, whose members are frontline public sector workers, asked: "What is Gordon Brown afraid of? If he genuinely believes that PFI is the way forward, why will he not allow a short independent review by the NAO?" But the measure of Downing Street's concern about the damage which an adverse vote on PFI next week could do to public confidence - already highly critical, according to yesterday's Guardian/ICM poll - came in Mr Blair's renewed plea for trust and patience. While promising security of working conditions and better pay - now rapidly rising, he notes - to public sector staff, Mr Blair adds: "We reject also the view, held by some on the left, that a Labour government's role is simply to defend existing services, not to extend choice or accountability but simply pour in more money." Mr Brown and Mr Prescott, who published a dossier of PFI achievements in London, said that total public sector investment, long-neglected in Britain, had risen from =A322bn under the Tories to =A335.9bn this year and =A346.6bn by 2005-6, including an eventual 100 PFI hospitals and 550 new or improved schools. Old-fashioned public investment had been badly run, late in delivery and expensive, they insisted. "Our reforms ensure private contractors are now bound into long-term maintenance contracts and shoulder responsibility for the quality of work," Mr Brown said. Mr Blair took a longer, sweeping view when he quoted "heroes and heroines" from Labour's pantheon - from Nye Bevan on the left to Tony Crosland on the right - to demand change. "It is time to acknowledge the 1945 settlement was a product of its time and we must not be a prisoner of it. "Labour created the NHS, the welfare state and expanded educational opportunity. These are our crown jewels and prize achievements, built by our political heroes and heroines. So it's understandable that to suggest they are no longer always good enough and must be radically reformed can touch raw nerves." ----- Blair's case for radical change In this political pamphlet the prime minister presents his vision of social justice and the way to achieve it Friday September 27, 2002 The Guardian Reform of the public services is the route to social justice This is a political pamphlet not a policy document. As we step up the pace of reform it is right we continue to state confidently the political case for change. Underlying it is a single message: radical reform is the route to social justice. We favour true equality: equal worth and equal opportunity, not a crude equality of outcome focused on incomes alone. Strong, public services - universal but personalised - are fundamental to this vision of a fairer, more prosperous society. But only if we make the necessary changes to our public services will we be able to say this Labour government lived up to the high ideals and practical achievements of the government of 1945. Time to move beyond 1945 It is time to acknowledge that the 1945 settlement was a product of its time and we must not be a prisoner of it. Labour created the NHS, the welfare state and expanded educational opportunity. These are our crown jewels and prize achievements, built by our political heroes and heroines. So it's understandable that to suggest they are no longer always good enough and must be radically reformed can touch raw nerves. Not good enough Let us start with a blunt truth. Our public services, despite the heroic efforts of dedicated public servants and some outstanding successes, are not all of the quality a nation like Britain needs. Too many criminals still go undetected and unpunished. While half of our 16-year-olds achieve good qualifications, half do not - and tens of thousands of young people leave school each year with barely any at all. The NHS has recovered from the crisis of the early 1990s but maximum waiting times remain too long and standards of service too uneven. Our public transport system requires sustained investment and improvement. Post-Fordist services The 1945 settlement was the social equivalent of mass production, largely state-directed and managed, built on a paternalist relationship between state and individual, one of donor and recipient. Individual aspirations were often weak, and personal preferences were a low or non-existent priority. This is no longer true yet too often old assumptions prevail. Today's population generally enjoy choice, equality, opportunity and autonomy on a scale never previously experienced. A new balance We strongly believe in the continuing need for collective provision. Crime and the fear of crime will only be tackled if we have a fully modernised police force and criminal justice system - there is no private market solution. We reject totally, as inefficient and unfair, a rightwing philosophy of market choice for a few and "sink services" for the many. But if we want to do more, to achieve a more equal society and more opportunity for those most in need, then we need to transform standards. Now is the time to advance our vision. We have the potential to settle the political contours for generations to come; to establish a new consensus that shifts the gravity of British politics decisively in a progressive direction. Lessons from Labour history Where we have been reformers, we have left great legacies. But Labour's failure in the 1960s and 1970s to reform industrial relations and the conduct of strikes aided the return of the Tories and their destructive policies. So too with Labour's failure in the 1970s to respond to the aspirations of many council tenants to own their own homes, which opened the way not just to "right to buy" but to a wholesale Tory attack on local government. Our task is to give modern expression to our values in a time of new and unprecedented aspirations, declining deference and increasing choice, of diverse needs and greater personal autonomy. We do so with Tony Crosland's concluding words to The Future of Socialism in mind: "Socialist aspirations were first formulated over 100 years ago. Some remain urgently relevant ... but of course new issues, not then foreseen, and increasingly important as the old evils are conquered, have arisen since; and they may be slightly significant for welfare, freedom, and social justice." That is the same reform imperative we confront today. Lessons from Europe Social democratic parties and governments across Europe are wrestling with the challenge of public service modernisation, and progressing with bold policies to meet it. Sweden, Denmark, Spain and the Netherlands are promoting greater choice within public health and education and enforcing steadily higher national standards, including shorter maximum waiting times for hospital treatment and new rights for patients to access the private sector and go abroad where these times are not met. All European countries are seeking to promote a wider diversity of pathways and institutions within health and education. Reformist centre-left parties have nothing to fear from breaking down monolithic "one size fits all" structures in the public services, when these are an obstacle to higher standards and aspirations. Like us, other centre-left governments regard the restructuring of public services as vital to meeting traditional commitments to equality of opportunity and social justice. Reform not abolition Reform is not a disguise for dismantling collective provision or declining employment standards. The commitment of public service staff is key to the delivery of high quality public services. We welcome developments in the NHS where the vast majority of staff who work for private finance initiative (PFI) contractors in new hospitals will in future remain employed on NHS terms and conditions. Local government staff who transfer to private contractors will have their terms and conditions fully protected and new recruits will be employed on broadly comparable terms. This government will continue to safeguard employee interests through mandatory consultation and through dialogue with our colleagues in the public sector unions. Private finance Each public-private partnership (PPP) is considered on its merits. PPPs can help drive up cost efficiencies and encourage innovation in public service delivery. Public sector organisations are rightly encouraged to bid for management contracts, as they will with the new arrangements envisaged for failing schools and hospitals, but it is wrong to rule out the private sector if we are serious about innovation and improvement. Neither is a PPP a form of surrogate privatisation as critics have alleged. With PPP most of the assets either remain or ultimately revert to the public sector: the government is not "selling off" hospitals or schools. The public sector continues to define the facilities it wants and to set and monitor service standards. It also retains the right to intervene if necessary to guarantee equity of access to services. PFI has a central role to play in modernising the infrastructure of the NHS - but as an addition, not an alternative, to the public sector capital programme. PFI is allowing more new NHS buildings to be built more quickly, providing high quality, patient-focused services out of modern, purpose-designed buildings. It has delivered on time and within budget - something that public sector-led investment projects seldom managed to achieve. The national audit office examined existing PFI schemes and found they will all deliver value for money. The tube The PPP provides the best solution for London. Its long-term engineering contracts have secured an unprecedented commitment to fund the upgrades required - with a total expenditure of over =A39bn in the first 7.5 years alone. Strong incentives (and penalties) are in place to ensure that improvements are delivered on time and to budget. And independent evaluations have judged the contracts good value for money compared to the alternative of managing the work within the public sector. Private prisons Here private sector engagement has been beneficial not only in the value for money of individual projects, but also in precipitating improvements in the way public prisons are operated. As a result the public sector has raised its game significantly, to the point where the Prison Service has been able to win back business from the private sector. Time We are going to make significant improvements in the health service; but we are not going to complete its renewal within the term of this parliament. It takes three years to train a nurse, around seven years to train a doctor and yet longer for a combination of training and experience to produce a competent consultant. Neither is it possible to upgrade the rail system quickly; infrastructure projects take years to complete. We have to be honest in accepting that increased investment alone will not solve the problems we face. The challenge for us is to combine investment and reform in an indissoluble union, public service by public service. Labour's four principles of reform 1. National standards For the first time, we have established a national framework of standards with floor targets beneath which no public service should fall. Accountable public bodies must uphold these standards, with effective intervention powers in cases of failure. These national standards are essential to break down regional and local disparities in access to provision and to ensure poor quality provision is tackled. Some people argue that national standards are unnecessary. I say that without them we sacrifice equality and fail to guarantee quality. As we invest, standards must rise and the definition of minimum acceptable standards needs to rise sharply. In health we are setting steadily more demanding targets for reducing maximum waiting times for hospital treatment, reducing the maximum for inpatients from 18 months last year to six months by 2005. It is essential that even shorter maximum waiting times are achieved and enforced nationally, with whatever redress is necessary for those not treated in time by their local NHS suppliers. A similar approach to basic national standards is being taken in the public transport and criminal justice sectors. 2. Devolution to the front line National standards are a way of ensuring minimum thresholds of provision but not enough to achieve universal excellence. For that to happen power must be devolved and consumer pressure brought to bear at local level. Headteachers, GPs, nurses, police superintendents, hospital chief executives must be in real charge of their organisations, empowered to innovate to meet local demands. We recognise and understand the need to let go and release the energy and commitment that pervades so many public service organisations. I readily accept that there may be tension between guaranteed national standards, the machinery to underpin and enforce them, and the freedom necessary for local autonomy and diversity to flourish. In many areas this tension is marginal or non-existent, because guaranteed national standards are achieved and taken for granted. However, I recognise that the red tape surrounding accountability regimes can be unnecessarily burdensome and restrictive. Hence our intention to extend "earned autonomy": a right for the successful who are achieving good standards to manage their affairs and innovate with greater freedom from central oversight and red tape. Foundation hospitals, and the reduced Ofsted obligations on highly rated schools, are examples of this. 3. Reform of the professions There is something special about public service. At its best the notion of public service embodies vital qualities - loyalty, altruism, dedication, long-term relationships with users, a sense of pride. It is an ethos that is the motivating force to make a nurse stay late with a patient in distress. It is the same ethos that makes a teacher strive over many years to improve the chances of a child who finds learning difficult. And the public know too that they are more than consumers of public servants. A patient in accident and emergency demanding his hand is stitched up acts as a consumer fuming at the delay. But when he sees a ghastly car crash victim rush past him on a trolley he acts as a citizen, understanding that a more urgent case comes first. I believe that only if we give our public servants the tools to respond to new demands will we be able to bolster the ethos we all believe in. So a modernised workforce is essential to providing modern public services. It means better pay and conditions. This year and last, public sector salaries were growing at a faster rate than private sector salaries for the first time in 20 years. We are introducing a range of bursaries, grants and raising starting pay for teachers, doctors and nurses. In return we expect high standards of professional engagement. We seek a new flexibility in the professions that break down old working practices, old demarcations. This means tackling the outdated systems and practices that demoralise staff, prevent them using their skills to the full and which undermine their efforts to improve. 4. Choice We need far more choice - not only between public service suppliers but also within each public service. Schools We need far more schools which parents want to choose. Hence our desire to see successful schools expand and take over weak or failing schools. New legislation to encourage successful schools to expand, and to facilitate school takeovers and new federations, will allow steadily more parents to secure their school of choice. So too will the establishment of city academies in areas of poor achievement. Hence also our policy for every secondary school - not a minority as in the past - to develop a distinctive character and become a real centre of specialist excellence, in addition to its teaching of the full national curriculum. These "specialist schools" - with specialisms in areas including enterprise, modern languages, sport, technology and the arts - will account for more than half of all secondary schools by 2005, generating a greater capacity to choose between schools. We want every secondary school on a clear ladder of improvement, becoming specialist not merely in a technical sense but with a character and an ethos that is distinctive and that focuses on the talent and potential of each child. Health Greater choice between NHS-funded suppliers is also needed, to satisfy individual requirements and to meet guaranteed waiting times for operations where local suppliers are unable to do so. Heart surgery patients now have a wider choice of treatment - in hospitals nationwide, in the private sector, and even abroad - if they have been waiting more than six months, and we intend to spread this policy across the NHS. New free-standing diagnostic and treatment centres, specialising in particular conditions such as cataracts, will enhance choice. By 2005 all patients will be able to book a convenient time and place for their treatment when they are referred to hospital by a GP. The mixed economy We are keen to engage more private hospitals and overseas suppliers, and more voluntary or private sector managers of schools, to provide state-funded services as long as this remains within a national framework guaranteeing access to all on the basis of need and the capacity to benefit, not the ability to pay. In health and schooling, collective funding through taxation is the fairest and most efficient way of providing a universal service. But that does not mean that all healthcare provision and schools have to be owned and controlled directly by the state. In Germany around 40%, Belgium around 60% and in the Netherlands over 80% of hospitals providing public healthcare are independent not-for-profits, similar to the foundation hospitals we are now proposing here. Similarly, a wide diversity of excellent schools, with real autonomy, can make a real contribution to higher standards and wider opportunities for the many. Conclusion: the progressive prize We reject the pessimists and the Tories who believe increasing investment would only be pouring more money into a bottomless pit. Their option is privatised services for the better off and cheap "safety net" public services for the poor. Their goal is a smaller state with an ever-decreasing share of national income invested in public services. We reject also the view, held by some on the left, that a Labour government's role is simply to defend existing services, not to extend choice or accountability but simply pour in more money. They share - although they would never admit it - the right's pessimistic view that our public services cannot fully meet people's needs and aspirations. They believe that the best way to defend those working in the public service and to secure their futures is to defend the status quo and veto reform. This approach urges higher public spending to address the worst shortcomings of current provision, but would leave arcane structures in the public sector largely unchanged. The opportunity for the centre-left in British politics to shape the destiny of the country has never been greater. But if the right is able to claim through our inability to reform these institutions or promote choice for the individual citizen that public services are inherently flawed, we will see support for them wither and the clamour for private provision increase. It will mean a further assault on the public realm. By contrast, if we are bold enough in our mission to reform we will rehabilitate public services after two decades of neglect, mark not merely a new advance for progressive politics but realise Labour's historic values. World class public services have always defined New Labour's purpose, infused our ambition, and fuelled our optimism about what we can achieve for Britain in the 21st century. This is an edited version of The Courage of our Convictions: Why Reform of the Public Services is the Route to Social Justice published next week by the Fabian Society, =A36.95, =A31 p&p, from 11, Dartmouth Street, London SW1H 9BN ----- If you're so sure, prove it So Blair is convinced: privatisation of public services makes financial sense. Then why is he so afraid of a review? Polly Toynbee Friday September 27, 2002 The Guardian A gathering storm at the Labour party conference centres less on Iraq than on a parochial matter - PFIs, the 500 private finance initiatives that give companies long contracts to run public services. Frantic attempts to head off a rebellion include Tony Blair's Fabian pamphlet - The Courage of our Convictions, published today. But it may do more harm than good. It trumpets the success of PFI deals with a casual indifference to the dividing line between the public and the private that will alarm his party. The conference motion calls for a moratorium on further PFIs, pending an independent review of their success and a study of public alternatives. This battle over PFIs breaks out amid a growing threat of strikes, but the government seems to have no strategy for encouraging the reasonable unions, in order to head off the unreasonable. The anti-PFI argument is gaining ground: in yesterday's Guardian/ICM opinion poll, 63% support a review of PFIs. Public suspicion of the Enron-style PFI off-the-books accounting runs deep. Contracts that are unbreakable for 30 years, all on the never-never, just don't look prudent. People read of the new Edinburgh Royal Infirmary costing =A330m a year at today's prices for the next 30 years, reaching a total of =A3900m, when it could all have been built for =A3180m up front. They are shocked by Andersen accounting that leaves generations in debt for assets health economists reckon they will no longer need. Multiple business scandals and a mighty market crash make this no time to talk up the virtues of the private sector. There was a hint of desperation in the chancellor's Times article yesterday when he claimed that a moratorium on PFIs means "building sites would be left empty; thousands of construction workers would be left without jobs." Of course the motion only intends a moratorium on "future" PFIs. What was needed from both chancellor and prime minister was a tough demolition of the growing belief that PFIs are poor value for money. Talk to most hospital managers or local government officers drawing up PFI deals and (off the record) they shrug with a grim despair. They had no choice, it was PFI or nothing: asked if it's good value, they tend to laugh drily and say they will be gone when the pigeons come home to roost. Now was the moment for the government to come up with cast-iron proof. Where is the gain? The chancellor used to reply "transfer of risk", but that was noticeably missing from his article. Too fresh in public memory are British Energy, British Rail, the passport agency, air traffic control, the criminal records bureau, the Royal Armouries Museum - all risks that were transferred straight back to the public purse. The conference motion wants an independent review to examine value-for-money and to test it against public sector alternatives on a level playing field. The most serious accusation against PFIs is the deep damage privatisation does to the poorest and weakest workers, a major cause of growing inequality. (Though Blair writes blithely that income inequality does not matter.) Cleaning hospitals and school kitchens, sweeping streets and emptying dustbins, most of the profit has been made by screwing down wages: official figures show 51% of contracted-out workers took real cuts in pay. A Labour government should have put this right at once. So far they offer only vague assurance that private contractors will offer conditions "broadly comparable, taking account of local market conditions". That these are weasel words is proved by the government's refusal to promise PFI workers should have "no less favourable terms", with "robust enforcement". The suspicion is that they know very well that profits from PFIs depend on treating the workforce in ways the state itself dare not. A clash looks inevitable: the clever money is on the unions, and the Tories will chortle happily. If the government were less pig-headed, they could offer a cast-iron guarantee on contracted-out workers rights and agree to a PFIreview in exchange for the unions shelving the moratorium. If the PFI figures really are robust, why fear an independent review? And then the same hard question should be put to the firefighters, whose ballot papers for a strike go out today: they are refusing to join a review of both their pay formula and working practices, unchanged for 30 years. Meanwhile the wise heads of the TUC sit in silence while Bob Crow and Mick Rix bring the country to a halt in a bad cause: Crow says his men on =A331,000 should get twice or thrice that sum. A collision between government and unions could be avoided if the government took a strong lead. That has to begin with taking low pay seriously. If they had a genuine commitment to raise up the poorest workers, they would arm themselves against unreasonable demands from those on median or above earnings (the firefighters want 40%). A strategy for greater equality would offer a framework of social justice against which to measure each new set of pay claims. That also requires wise trade unionists to express their own disapproval of bad claims. (Off the record, they are venomous about the wreckers.) Instead, here is the prime minister's pamphlet, a lazy document, airy on hard evidence, long on verbiage. What was needed was a tightly argued refutation of the opponents of PFI and a strong promise to protect the rights of vulnerable workers. Without that, his calls for flexibility in working practices sound like code for terrible pay and conditions. "Choice" in education reads as a code word for selection between his city academies, specialist schools and bog standards until the day when every school is excellent. In health, he extols the way social democratic traditions across the channel have espoused private health provision in their mix to deliver more choice: to his own party that sounds like a threat not a promise. He is right to warn that if the public services don't deliver, their destiny is privatisation under the Tories. Yet after 10,000 words he has failed to explain to the very good public service managers how and why private management delivers better. His "private" has a magic aura as if it were fairy dust to sprinkle on any public sector failure. Where is the evidence? In "edubusiness", Nord Anglia failed badly in Hackney. What of the West Coast mainline disaster? But it is not just a lack of evidence, the gaping hole in Courage of our Convictions is the convictions themselves. There is no understanding of the value of the public sphere just because it is public. There is no warmth that recognises the affection people feel for public institutions, the trust and pride felt by stake-holding citizens who are not mere customers. As for the value of the private, if the government has hard proof that it does better, let them bring their facts for public scrutiny to the review the Labour conference will call for. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 05:39:35 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:39:35 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utT5-0006Rm-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:39:35 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utSr-0003Gs-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:39:21 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utSS-0003Gj-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:38:56 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBb2h13730 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:37:02 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBb0N13545 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:37:00 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US imperialism: Chad Thread-Index: AcJmGkiTJyoiCNIfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US imperialism: Chad Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:40:21 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:40:21 +0300 Chad oil pipeline under attack for harming the poor Paul Brown, environment correspondent Friday September 27, 2002 The Guardian Africa's largest development project, a 650-mile, =A32.8bn oil pipeline between Chad and Cameroon, is being criticised for damaging the interests of the poor - the people it was supposed to help. Embarrassed World Bank officials have already admitted that the notoriously corrupt Chad government has spent the first =A310m of grant money it received from the consortium on arms for its security forces rather than on the educational and development projects for which the money was intended. The project, which will provide income of almost =A33bn for the US oil giant Exxon, has been criticised by human rights and environment groups. Archbishop Desmond Tutu, the Nobel peace prize winner from South Africa, said: "The Chad/Cameroon project is not the help we asked for or needed. In the absence of the rule of law and respect for human rights and the environment, financing of large-scale oil development is destroying the environment and us." Bank officials accept that the project remains "high risk" because of the poor human rights and environment record of both Chad and Cameroon. At the Earth summit in Johannesburg a month ago, the pipeline was held up by the US as a blueprint for Africa - private money providing jobs and development. Chad should get =A340m a year from the project, in effect doubling the government's income, and Cameroon =A312m. At its meeting this weekend, exactly two years after the project was approved, the bank directors will be told the Chad government has been warned about its conduct and officials now have high hopes the revenues will be spent correctly. A coalition of environment, religious and development groups have produced two reports showing that so far the construction of the pipeline has damaged the interests of people along its entire length: water supplies have been damaged, pygmies have lost hunting lands, farmers have lost land and crops and an influx of immigrant workers has brought child prostitution and spread Aids. The development has also caused inflation, doubling the price of basic foods and so causing malnutrition among the poor. Two years ago the bank's internal report on the project said there was a 50% chance of failure in the project's social and environmental objectives, but the directors, including Clare Short, the development secretary, voted to go ahead. This was despite the fact that Shell and Elf, two of the members of the original pipeline consortium, had decided to pull out because they feared the sort of problems that have occurred in neighbouring Nigeria's Ogoni delta field. Currently 300 wells are being drilled in the Doba fields of southern Chad. The pipeline will take the oil 15 miles out to sea where a floating storage vessel will load 225,000 barrels a day into tankers. Oil should begin to flow in 2004. The report by human rights groups says: "The World Bank's wilful naivete concerning endemic corruption, the lack of basic democratic rights and the violation of human rights in both Chad and Cameroon has contributed to the high-risk situation the project faces now." The World Bank put in less than =A3150m but without its support the European Investment Bank would not have put in a similar amount and nor would other banks have given financial support to Exxon, Petronas and Chevron. Ted Ahlers, the bank's director of operations for Africa, said Chad's spending of the first instalment of money on arms "was not a good thing and not in the spirit of the agreement". He conceded that there were environmental and health problems as a result of "such a big construction". From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 05:42:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:42:38 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utW2-0006S3-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:42:38 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utVl-0003HZ-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:42:21 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utUm-0003HQ-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:41:20 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBdRM15638 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:39:27 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBdPN15517 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:39:25 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: BP watch: China Thread-Index: AcJmGp8jJyoiD9IfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] BP watch: China Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:42:46 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:42:46 +0300 =A35.5bn gas deal boosts BP John Aglionby in Jakarta and Terry Macalister Friday September 27, 2002 The Guardian BP's goal of becoming a significant player in the fast expanding Chinese energy market received a boost yesterday when a consortium it is leading signed a =A35.5bn deal to supply liquified natural gas (LNG) to Fujian province over 25 years. BP is involved in a second gas scheme for the Guangdong region and is opening 700 petrol stations in China in joint ventures with oil companies PetroChina and Sinopec, in which it has equity stakes. Lord Browne, chief executive of BP, said China was a vital market for his company because it was the second biggest energy consumer after the US. "Gas - the world's cleanest fossil fuel - currently accounts for just over 2% of China's energy consumption and the Fujian and Guangdong LNG terminals will play pivotal roles in achieving China's goal of a fourfold increase in natural gas consumption by 2010." BP has a 49.6% stake in the consortium which includes Pertamina, Indonesia's state oil company, and British Gas, with an 11% share. It will supply 2.6m tonnes a year from the Tangguh field in Indonesia's eastern province of Papua. Construction of the plant which will cost BP about =A31.3bn, is expected to begin in the second half of next year. The first shipment to Fujian is due in the first quarter of 2007. The consortium failed in a direct bid to win the more lucrative =A38.4bn contract to supply gas to Guangdong province. That prize went to Australia, though BP is one of the six equal equity partners. Many analysts believe Indonesia lost that contract because of concerns about the security situation in Papua, a restive province where there is an active, albeit poorly organised, separatist movement. On August 31 two Americans and an Indonesian from the American mining company Freeport McMoran were killed and 12 people were injured when their convoy was ambushed north of the town of Timika. BP's operations area, in Bintuni Bay, is several hundred miles from there and Indonesia's energy and mineral resources minister, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, insisted yesterday that neither he nor the Chinese had any fears about security. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 05:44:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:44:38 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utXy-0006SH-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:44:38 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utXi-0003IO-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:44:22 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utWs-0003I7-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:43:30 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBfbQ19014 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:41:37 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBfZN18952 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:41:35 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK state: Labour Party Thread-Index: AcJmGuxVJyoiFdIfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK state: Labour Party Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:44:56 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:44:56 +0300 The party's over Labour's support for the 1991 Gulf war caused thousands of party activists to tear up their membership cards. Is history about to repeat itself? Paul Whiteley and Patrick Seyd Friday September 27, 2002 The Guardian Each year since 1997 the Labour party has been losing a substantial number of members. In that year membership was just over 400,000 whereas by 2002, as the recently published NEC report shows, it had fallen to around 270,000. It cannot be long before it falls below a quarter of a million. Equally, the party is facing severe financial problems with an annual deficit of =A39m. David Triesman, the general secretary, has had to appeal to trade union leaders and party members to donate funds to fend off a cashflow crisis. In part, this financial crisis is clearly caused by the loss of members. Ten years ago we conducted the only national survey that has ever been done of Labour party ex-members or "exitors" as we called them. These were party members who had left the party in the previous year, and the main aim of the survey was to find out why they had left, in some cases after many years of membership. We asked 1,100 respondents to explain their most important reason for leaving the party. They gave a variety of answers, but the great majority could be grouped into one of six categories. As the table shows, the smallest category consisted of respondents who left because they felt that the party had abandoned socialism. Another group left because they had problems with their local party involving things like internal feuding. A third left because of dissatisfaction with the national party and its leadership. Quite a large group left for personal reasons such as moving house, or "getting too old"; and there was also a group who left because they felt that the party had sacrificed its principles in the interests of electoral success. The largest group of exitors, however, left because of a variety of different policy disagreements but one reason given clearly dominated this category. Half of those who left for policy reasons cited the Gulf war as the cause of their departure, which made up 13% of the entire sample of exitors. This is a substantial figure if put into the context of the numbers who have left since 1997. In that context it would represent about 17,000 individuals. These members opposed the war and felt strongly enough about Labour's support for it that they tore up their party card. This was surprising because the war had widespread support throughout the world and among the public in Britain. An analysis showed these Gulf war exitors to be more middle class and educated than members who left for other reasons. They tended to be more female, which is consistent with other evidence that women in particular dislike war. Perhaps, not surprisingly, many of them were Guardian readers and by the standards of the Labour party as a whole they tended to be fairly affluent. Now another Gulf war looms, but the context has changed dramatically since the previous one. Many, including Mo Mowlam in the pages of this newspaper, believe that the United States is now the aggressor and is using the rhetoric of the war against terrorism to seize control of important Middle Eastern oilfields. If so, it seems reasonable to conclude that opposition to the war in Labour's grassroots is now likely to be much greater than it was 10 years ago. If the first Gulf war produced mass defections from the Labour party, then the second is likely to produce a massive crisis in the grassroots party if Britain continues to uncritically support the US. Our survey evidence suggests that the present policy is likely to produce a full-scale row at the party conference for the first time in many years. Moreover, such a row is likely to be worse if there is an attempt to stage-manage or suppress the debate on this issue. The Labour party has always had a group of pacifists who oppose war under any circumstances, but opponents of the current policy go well beyond this group. A wide spectrum of opinion within the party has yet to be convinced that supporting a unilateralist, rightwing American administration is in Britain's national interest. The annual conference is still technically the sovereign policymaking body of the Labour party. In a debate on the Iraq crisis, party members can call for a card vote, and that will demonstrate the true levels of opposition to the policy in the party. Moreover, the arrival of a new generation of union leaders means that the party hierarchy is going to find it difficult to persuade the trade unions to fight off this challenge on its behalf. The possibility of mass heckling and a walkout by delegates during the leader's speech cannot be ruled out if attempts are made to control the debate too tightly. If Blair continues with his current war policy and the inevitable row results then it would have two significant effects. The short-term effect would be in the opinion polls, since the public would interpret the row as a failure of leadership and it is well known that voters punish party divisions of this kind. The longer term effects would also be damaging: there is likely to be a significant haemorrhaging of the membership, much larger than the loss in 1992. This in turn will have both financial and electoral consequences. The party will lose significant amounts of money at a time when it is already in financial difficulties and its electoral prospects will be greatly weakened in the future by the lack of campaign volunteers on the ground. In the long run, the road to Baghdad may leave the Labour party bankrupt and in opposition. =B7 Paul Whiteley is professor of government at the University of Essex and Patrick Seyd is professor of politics at the University of Sheffield From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 05:49:45 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:49:45 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utcv-0006UZ-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:49:45 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utcX-0003JB-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:49:21 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utba-0003J2-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:48:23 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBkTD22272 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:46:29 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBkRN22210 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:46:27 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Brazil: Lula good for capital? Thread-Index: AcJmG5rTJyoiG9IfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] Brazil: Lula good for capital? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:49:49 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:49:49 +0300 Lula falls foul of a foreign fantasy By Kenneth Maxwell Financial Times: September 27 2002 In Latin America "magical realism" has faded as a literary fad. But when it comes to Brazil, fanstasy reigns supreme within the International Monetary Fund and on Wall Street. How else can you explain the demonisation of Luiz In=E1cio Lula da Silva, presidential candidate of the Workers' party, or the ridiculous, "Lula-meter" invented by Goldman Sachs last June to predict the value of the Brazilian currency against his standing in the public opinion polls. The "Lula-meter" was thankfully locked away from public view. But wherever it is, it must be ticking away furiously. With barely a week to go to the first round of the Brazilian election, Mr da Silva is in striking distance of an outright victory. Jos=E9 Serra, the government candidate, who remains Wall Street's favourite, languishes a full 25 points behind Mr da Silva in the polls. And Anthony Garotinho, the former governor of Rio de Janeiro, is chipping away at Mr Serra's chance of even reaching the second round. Mr Serra has run a negative campaign. This has done little to improve his standing so far, but it did succeed in eliminating two of his main rivals. If Mr Serra makes it to a second round, he will try to destroy Mr da Silva's image as an affable moderate by running television clips of the "old" radical in meetings with Hugo Ch=E1vez, the volatile Venezuelan president, and with Fidel Castro, the Cuban leader. But the red flags and red stars of Mr da Silva's Workers' party notwithstanding, someone should tell Wall Street and the IMF that the cold war is long over. In fact, they should pray that Mr da Silva gains an outright victory next Sunday. With the real in free fall, the last thing Brazil and the international financial system needs is a scorched-earth campaign stretching to a second-round vote on October 27. It is hardly something the IMF, with its $30bn Brazil bailout package at stake, should be hoping for. Solid public support is critical for any Brazilian president, and a relentlessly negative campaign will only weaken the capacity of either candidate to govern effectively in 2003. The truth is that Brazil's current vulnerability has been created under IMF guidance. Risk premiums were bound to rise at a time of electoral uncertainty, increasing risk aversion among investors and a weaker global economy. Under these circumstances, interest payments tied to the value of the real or indexed to the dollar were bound to be difficult to bear regardless of whether Brazil maintained a primary budget surplus of 3.75 per cent. To blame all this on Mr da Silva is ludicrous. Mr da Silva has run for the presidency four times. He has learned from past failures, as has the Workers' party (PT). The PT has used the past decade to modernise its ideology and move towards the political centre. For 20 years, party members have been elected to the state and local offices. They know that efficient and honest administration is more important than strident partisanship. The PT has quietly formed alliances with other parties and during the campaign has reassured the military. It has maintained an open link to President Fernando Henrique Cardoso. If Mr da Silva does win in the first round, Mr Cardoso is likely to ensure a smooth transition and to work with him to deal with the financial crisis. It is very much in Mr Cardoso's interests to do so since he does not want to step down from office in the midst of an economic meltdown, with his reputation as a statesman destroyed. A da Silva presidency can also expect more or less the same support from a solid centre-left coalition in Congress as a Serra presidency. Wall Street analysts and IMF bureaucrats should leave Brazilian politics to its 115m voters and stop confusing fact and fantasy. The writer is director of the Latin America programme at the Council on Foreign Relations. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 05:53:35 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:53:35 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utgd-0006Wc-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:53:35 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utgQ-0003MK-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:53:22 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utfD-0003Jm-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:52:08 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBoE725333 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:50:14 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBoCN25269 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:50:12 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: UK corporate state: PPPs in disarray Thread-Index: AcJmHCD9JyoiIdIfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] UK corporate state: PPPs in disarray Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:53:34 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:53:34 +0300 In addition to Polly Toynbee, here's another Blairite cheerleader who has enthused over PPPs now recognising that their political liabilities far outweigh whatever assets they may possess financially. Nicholas Timmins: The private argument Financial Times: September 27 2002 Gordon Brown, the UK chancellor, on Thursday presented the first of nine regional surveys showing the strengths of the government's private finance initiative. It was a case of slamming the stable door after the horse had bolted. In political terms the government has been losing the argument over the private financing of public facilities and services since the 1997 election. It has swung between making false arguments for the PFI - that without private sector borrowing new hospitals, roads, prisons and schools would never have been built - to the only valid one: that the PFI offers more efficient management and will produce better value for money in the long run. It has repeatedly made its arguments by assertion rather than on the evidence and, to date, has notably failed to take on the critics over the detail of their case. There is now, for example, scarcely a doctor in the country who does not believe that the PFI is anything other than a rip-off, after the British Medical Journal, three years ago, concluded in a series of papers that PFI stood for "perfidious financial idiocy". Its analysis was a mix of valid criticism, tendentious argument and some plain errors of fact. Despite active encouragement from the BMJ, no one in government or among the PFI contractors was prepared to assemble a detailed rebuttal. The argument was lost by default. Equally, what little independent analysis of the PFI that the Treasury has commissioned and published has been sketchy and unconvincing. Those looking for an objective assessment of the strengths and weaknesses have been left to rely on the painstaking work of the National Audit Office and the odd foray into the mine-field of PFI by Commons committees. For this dithering the government has paid a heavy price. Not only is it set for an embarrassing - though largely irrelevant - defeat at next week's Labour party conference over unions' demand for a moratorium on privately financed projections. It is also losing public support. An ICM/Guardian poll on Thursday showed 63 per cent of voters, and a majority from all political parties, backed the unions' stance. And yet, ask the opinion of parents with children in a new, privately financed school or patients in a new PFI hospital, or even prisoners in a new PFI prison, and the overwhelming majority would take the new facility over the old any day. The case the government has failed to make convincingly is that these new facilities also represent good long-term value for money to the taxpayer. In truth, when the contracts for these services run for 20 or 30 years, it is too soon for a definitive answer. >From early experience it is plain that the PFI has a mixed record. Its success varies from case to case and sector by sector, depending on how well the contract has been drawn. Hospitals and schools are now being built on time and are properly maintained for the first time in postwar history. PFI prisons have won praise from the prisons inspectorate. Road projects have worked well. Ministry of Defence projects have a mixed record. Privately financed information technology has been plagued by problems. The government has discovered that there are some risks that it simply cannot shift to the private sector - and that when it gets that wrong it pays not just a political price but a financial one. The whole initiative has also been tarnished by the battle over London Underground. Even some of the banks and contractors involved in the PFI believe that the partial privatisation of the Tube is a bridge too far. On Thursday Mr Brown launched a fightback of sorts. But his report again failed to tackle the weaknesses identified even by non-ideological critics. After five years of procrastination the government faces an uphill battle. For that it has only itself to blame. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 06:01:44 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 06:01:44 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utoW-0006XL-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 06:01:44 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utoE-0003Sv-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 06:01:27 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utnB-0003Sm-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 06:00:21 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBwRD31798 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:58:27 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBwON31559 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:58:24 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US/China tensions: spy ship Thread-Index: AcJmHUXmJyoiL9IfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US/China tensions: spy ship Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 15:01:45 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 15:01:45 +0300 China Complains About U.S. Surveillance Ship By ERIK ECKHOLM New York Times, September 27 2002 BEIJING, Sept. 26 - A spokeswoman for the Chinese government complained today that an American naval ship - one described by the Pentagon as an oceanographic research vessel - had violated international law by operating inside China's 200-nautical-mile economic zone. "The U.S. naval ship Bowditch was operating in China's exclusive economic zone in contravention of the international law of the sea," said the spokeswoman, Zhang Qiyue, in response to questions at a previously scheduled press briefing today. "China has already made many representations towards the U.S. side." According to widely accepted maritime law, national territory extends 12 miles off shore, but countries have control over natural resources and commercial activities within 200 miles of their coasts. Ms. Zhang would not specify what activities by the American vessel might have violated those standards. The United States asserts a right of free passage for ships beyond the 12-mile territorial limit. A Pentagon spokesman said the Bowditch is a Navy ship staffed by civilians and was conducting military oceanographic surveillance. That is accepted practice within the 200-mile economic zone off China's coast, he said. Only commercial activities - mining or fishing, for example - would be controlled within the economic zone; transit and surveillance are allowed, in the American view. The Pentagon spokesman dismissed reports from a Hong Kong newspaper that the Bowditch had collided with a Chinese fishing boat on Sept. 19 in the Yellow Sea, about 60 miles off China's coast. Ms. Zhang refused to confirm the report, and the mild tone of her rebuke suggested that Beijing does not plan to make a major issue of the incident. The American Embassy here refused to comment on the matter. Last year, a collision between an American reconnaissance plane and a Chinese military jet off southern China led to serious tensions. The Chinese pilot was killed and the American crew was detained for 11 days after their damaged plane made an emergency landing at a Chinese military base on Hainan Island. Since the incident, American planes and ships have continued to engage in reconnaissance, but well beyond the 12-mile frontier. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 06:02:56 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 06:02:56 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utpg-0006XW-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 06:02:56 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utkJ-0003Pf-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:57:23 -0600 Received: from keryx.evtek.fi ([195.148.144.8] ident=root) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utjd-0003PR-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 05:56:41 -0600 Received: (from root@localhost) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) id g8RBshX28581 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:54:43 +0300 Received: from exch.evtek.fi (exch.evtek.fi [195.148.144.26]) by keryx.evtek.fi (8.11.4/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g8RBseN28519 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:54:40 +0300 content-class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 X-scanner: scanned by Inflex 1.0.10 - (http://pldaniels.com/inflex/) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.0.5762.3 Message-ID: X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: US ideological state apparatus: campus McCarthyism Thread-Index: AcJmHMDIJyoiKNIfEdaZBQAQWtb4aQ== From: "Keaney Michael" To: "A-List (E-mail)" Subject: [A-List] US ideological state apparatus: campus McCarthyism Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:58:02 +0300 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 14:58:02 +0300 Web Site Fuels Debate on Campus Anti-Semitism By TAMAR LEWIN New York Times, September 27 2002 [A] Web site started last week by a pro-Israel research and policy group, citing eight professors and 14 universities for their views on Palestinian rights or political Islam, has opened a new chapter in a growing debate over campus anti-Semitism. In a show of solidarity with those named on the Web site, nearly 100 outraged professors nationwide - Jews and non-Jews, English professors and Middle East specialists - have responded to the site by asking to be added to the list. The Web site, Campus Watch (www.campus-watch.org), with "dossiers" on individuals and institutions and requests for further submissions, is a project of the Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum, whose director, Daniel Pipes, has long argued that Americans have not paid sufficient attention to the dangers of political Islam. The professors who were named include two from Columbia, Hamid Dabashi and Joseph Massad, and one each from Berkeley, Georgetown, Northeastern, the University of Michigan, the State University of New York at Binghamton and the University of Chicago. Those named have differing interests, and differing academic status: John Esposito of Georgetown, for example, is interested primarily in political Islam, and considered a leading scholar in the field, whereas some others are young professors known mostly for criticizing Israel. The appearance of the Web site, just a day after Harvard's president, Lawrence H. Summers, made a widely publicized speech on campus anti-Semitism, is another indication of the tensions on campuses over the developments in the Middle East. Some of those who asked to be added to the site said they were showing solidarity in opposing what they see as an assault on academic freedom. Others were more interested in showing that mainstream Middle Eastern scholars shared the views criticized on the Web site. Mr. Pipes said the Web site was no threat to free speech. "We're engaged in a battle over ideas," he said. "To bring in this notion of academic freedom is nonsense. No one is interfering with their right to say anything they want." The response from Judith Butler, a comparative literature professor at Berkeley, circulated on the Internet, providing boilerplate for many other professors: "I have recently learned that your organization is compiling dossiers on professors at U.S. academic institutions who oppose the Israeli occupation and its brutality, actively support Palestinian rights of self-determination as well as a more informed and intelligent view of Islam than is currently represented in the U.S. media. I would be enormously honored to be counted among those who actively hold these positions and would like to be included in the list of those who are struggling for justice." Those named on the site said they were heartened by the support. "It's a new genre springing up, and I'm especially glad that it includes Jewish scholars," said Professor Dabashi, who heads Columbia's department of Middle Eastern and Asian language and cultures. "This is about McCarthyism, freedom of expression. It's very important that it not be made into a Jewish-Muslim kind of thing. I am most concerned for my Jewish students, that they might feel that they shouldn't take my class, that the atmosphere would be intimidating, or that they couldn't express their opinions." He and others named on the site have been deluged with negative e-mails. Many academics see Campus Watch as an effort to chill free speech about the Middle East, and are particularly perturbed by the "Keep Us Informed" section, inviting the submission of "reports on Middle East-related scholarship, lectures, classes, demonstrations and other activities" - in other words, they say, inviting students to turn in their professors. "It's that whole mode of terror by association, with the cold war language of dossiers, and we're watching you," said Ammiel Alcalay, a Hebrew professor at Queens College. "It's not so intimidating for people like me, with tenure, but it makes graduate students and untenured professors very nervous, and makes it even harder to talk about Israel." Mr. Pipes said he had hoped the Web site would inspire new dialogue on Middle Eastern policy. "We weren't trying to rile people," he said. "For me, `dossier' was just a French word for file. Maybe that word could be changed, if it is obscuring our argument, which is that Middle Eastern studies at most universities present only one interpretation, a left-leaning one that offers only groupthink on the subject of terrorism and intolerance." He said the site was getting 3,500 hits a day, and had received hundreds of negative responses, including about 88 from academics asking to be added to the list - a reaction he took as further evidence that the field of Middle Eastern studies is monopolized by one viewpoint. Many academics say that Campus Watch has added to a sense that those in the field of Middle East studies are under siege. "Last year, Martin Kramer wrote a book arguing against federal funding for Middle Eastern studies in universities, and that scared people," said Lisa Anderson, dean of Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, and soon to be head of the Middle East Studies Association. "Daniel Pipes and Martin Kramer are part of the same group. Meanwhile, there's concern that the rhetoric around the Arab-Israel conflict is becoming increasingly associated with anti-Semitic sentiments, and that's scaring people too." The universities on the Campus Watch site include Harvard, Columbia, Stanford, New York University and Berkeley, and others less prominent, where Middle Eastern tensions have erupted, including Concordia College in Montreal, where a recent fracas forced the cancellation of a speech by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 06:11:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 06:11:37 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17uty5-0006aC-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 06:11:37 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utxq-0003Yg-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 06:11:22 -0600 Received: from cmailg2.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.195.172]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17utxM-0003YX-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 06:10:53 -0600 Received: from [195.92.168.141] (helo=tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk) by cmailg2.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17utxM-0006bn-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 13:10:52 +0100 Received: from modem-2798.wolf.dialup.pol.co.uk ([81.76.138.238] helo=mjones.tiscali.co.uk) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17utxK-0008MY-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 13:10:51 +0100 Message-Id: <5.1.0.14.2.20020927093125.027fab58@pop.tiscali.co.uk> X-Sender: markjones011@tiscali.co.uk@pop.tiscali.co.uk X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: Mark Jones Subject: Re: [A-List] Britain/US split: Germany In-Reply-To: Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 09:35:25 +0100 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 09:35:25 +0100 At 26/09/2002 10:42, Michael K wrote apropos Hywel Williams: >Dunno who this guy is, don't go for his pseudo-epic romantic prose style, >but it is an expression of a growing body of opinion within the UK state >apparatus (broadly conceived) vis a vis Germany and the US. Here's another recent sample of Hywel Williams prosing it up (and I agree with every word--and what's truly amazing is that Williams was once chief Whitehall adviser to none other than Tory neanderthal John Redwood when the latter was Secretary for Wales in John Major's govt. Makes you think, eh?) Mark A land built on blood The English murdered peoples, languages and laws. And they hate everything that reminds them of the fact Hywel Williams Wednesday August 21, 2002 The Guardian England: the land the Angles and the Saxons made for us. England is ours because she is tolerant and decent. Sheltered in her deep peace, she is averse to ideological hatred. That consensus view is both intellectual and popular. And the television histories do not disturb this self-congratulatory picture. Schama and Starkey, like their predecessors Macaulay, Gilbert and Sullivan, are celebrators of a happy land on its smooth and ever-vertical, ethical ascent. The latest example of tolerance - so superficially benign - comes with the news that Kernewek (Cornish) is set to become an official minority language. After a two-year inquiry the government extends its approval to a language once spoken by a whole people - and then picked off by cultural genocide. Kernewek, having been a threat, is now a cutesy delight for tourists. Nobody does repressive liberalism quite like the English. England is soaked in blood. Stride across the once-killing fields and you might hear the cries of the buried and defeated. Our official histories do a good job of explaining Cavaliers and Puritans, turbulent barons and Tolpuddle martyrs, invading Normans and Hereward the Wake. Saxon freedom fighters can indeed be quite the thing, romantic as an East Anglian maquis. Jutes and Danes can be admitted to the story too, since men in boats suit the maritime race. Shame about the pillage, but still, they all loved their freedom and isn't that always the individualistic English way? What cultural authorities we have all agree. It was natural for the English soil to start with Anglo-Saxons. But what came before is ignored. This is when the voices begin to be alien and the virtuous story is soiled by guilt. What capitalism did with the history of economics, the English have done with the history of Britain. What was once contentious has been turned into a natural order, something which can't even be questioned because it's a fact. But England was made by murder into a land for the English. Hypocrisy, violence and charm are for the foreign observer the three keys to the English way. The hypocrisy begins with the history and its cover-up of violence. It's still a shock for the English to be told that they're invaders, and that their Teutonic language has nothing in common with the native tongue of southern Britain. The idea of early-medieval peaceful assimilation is a base myth, and one shamefully upheld by many an Anglo-Celtic, Uncle Tom historian. But cross Offa's Dyke and there is hardly any evidence of inter-breeding with the Saxons who came, killed and then pushed the British to the west across the Severn and to the north to Strathclyde. The campaign was a relentless millennium-and-a-half affair, a murder of languages, laws and peoples. And what was crushed by the English was a continental civilisation. So successful was the genocide that we now know little of that original British language. But it did have affinities with the language of the Gauls in northern France. Just as Gallic evolved into French, so British evolved into our Celtic languages. Which is why French and Welsh have common features: both pitw in Welsh and the French petit mean the same. These are haunting linguistic patterns, but they also have a political consequence. The dominant English "scepticism" about Europe is founded on fear, not on the pound. Why should the English help to put together what they themselves tore apart? The English refusal to assimilate explains the country's colonial success. But it's not a quality to be shared. The non-assimilating others are viewed as difficult, irrational and stubborn. Part of the English dumbness about Welsh is explained by the fact that the language is a continuous reproach. Even the most diligently anti-colonial are shown up by its survival. For the language is an eloquent witness to the ethnic cleansing skeletons in the ancestral cupboard. Welsh gives most English liberals an irritating touch of the mauvaise foi . Still, since the natives will insist on hanging around, there are stratagems to be adopted. Once the genocide's over, why not switch on the charm? This is a particularly lethal weapon since charm is the English velvet around the furious fist. Turn the natives into delightfully folksy characters who dance jigs and sing sweet sad songs. This view of the Celtic as a mystical twilight imputes some of English culture's worst characteristics to the conquered. Kipling and Tolkien illustrate that quality in English letters which is always saying: "There are pixies at the bottom of our garden, so let's away and play." John Bull, once he's beaten you up, can turn into a fairy. Some of the conquered are ready to play the fey game too. Yeats's dabbling with the occult confirmed an English view of Irish instability. Wales's National Eisteddfod, with all those druids in white boots, is complicit in a similar game of self-alienation. Of all the English fables, it is the one that the English told about their own history which consoled them the most. But if history can be literature, literary myth is not the same as history's chastening truths. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 15:52:39 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 15:52:39 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17v32N-0002oF-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 15:52:39 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17v328-00080b-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 15:52:24 -0600 Received: from shawidc-mo1.cg.shawcable.net ([24.71.223.10] helo=pd6mo1so.prod.shaw.ca) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17v31h-00080M-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 15:51:58 -0600 Received: from pd4mr3so.prod.shaw.ca (pd4mr3so-qfe3.prod.shaw.ca [10.0.141.214]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with ESMTP id <0H3400MIAA08JD@l-daemon>; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 15:50:33 -0600 (MDT) Received: from pn2ml6so.prod.shaw.ca (pn2ml6so-qfe0.prod.shaw.ca [10.0.121.150]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.6 (built Apr 26 2002)) with ESMTP id <0H3400HEBA1RCK@l-daemon>; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 15:51:27 -0600 (MDT) Received: from cr185582a (h24-83-31-41.vc.shawcable.net [24.83.31.41]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with SMTP id <0H3400K2MA1P5F@l-daemon>; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 15:51:27 -0600 (MDT) From: Macdonald Stainsby To: Rad Green , a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Cc: Leninist International Message-id: <008701c26671$9e6a4f20$291f5318@vc.shawcable.net> MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4522.1200 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Al Gore against the War... Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 15:02:48 -0700 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 15:02:48 -0700 Fwd by Rita Barouch: Gore - Iraq and the War On Terrorism [complete] At the request of many, here now is the entire transcript of Al Gore's Anti-War Speech (www.algore04.com) , so you can read it in its full length; the media have, except for selected excerpts, ignored its full import almost completely. Gore won the popular vote, and presumably speaks for a majority constituency. This should make it a piece that should be available to that constituency and everyone else through the media, but not so. Please forward this email to as many people as possible: Monday, September 23rd, 2002 2:12 PM PST San Francisco Iraq and the War On Terrorism (Remarks as prepared) By Al Gore INTRODUCTION Like all Americans I have been wrestling with the question of what our country needs to do to defend itself from the kind of intense, focused and enabled hatred that brought about September 11th, and which at this moment must be presumed to be gathering force for yet another attack. I'm speaking today in an effort to recommend a specific course of action for our country which I believe would be preferable to the course recommended by President Bush. Specifically, I am deeply concerned that the policy we are presently following with respect to Iraq has the potential to seriously damage our ability to win the war against terrorism and to weaken our ability to lead the world in this new century. FIRST THING FIRST: WAR ON TERRORISM To begin with, I believe we should focus our efforts first and foremost against those who attacked us on September 11th and have thus far gotten away with it. The vast majority of those who sponsored, planned and implemented the cold blooded murder of more than 3,000 Americans are still at large, still neither located nor apprehended, much less punished and neutralized. I do not believe that we should allow ourselves to be distracted from this urgent task simply because it is proving to be more difficult and lengthy than predicted. Great nations persevere and then prevail. They do not jump from one unfinished task to another. We are perfectly capable of staying the course in our war against Osama Bin Laden and his terrorist network, while simultaneously taking those steps necessary to build an international coalition to join us in taking on Saddam Hussein in a timely fashion. I don't think that we should allow anything to diminish our focus on avenging the 3,000 Americans who were murdered and dismantling the network of terrorists who we know to be responsible for it. The fact that we don't know where they are should not cause us to focus instead on some other enemy whose location may be easier to identify. Nevertheless, President Bush is telling us that the most urgent requirement of the moment - - right now - - is not to redouble our efforts against Al Qaeda, not to stabilize the nation of Afghanistan after driving his host government from power, but instead to shift our focus and concentrate on immediately launching a new war against Saddam Hussein. And he is proclaiming a new, uniquely American right to pre-emptively attack whomsoever he may deem represents a potential future threat. Moreover, he is demanding in this high political season that Congress speedily affirm that he has the necessary authority to proceed immediately against Iraq and for that matter any other nation in the region, regardless of subsequent developments or circumstances. The timing of this sudden burst of urgency to take up this cause as America's new top priority, displacing the war against Osama Bin Laden, was explained by the White House Chief of Staff in his now well known statement that "from an advertising point of view, you don't launch a new product line until after labor day." Nevertheless, Iraq does pose a serious threat to the stability of the Persian Gulf and we should organize an international coalition to eliminate his access to weapons of mass destruction. Iraq's search for weapons of mass destruction has proven impossible to completely deter and we should assume that it will continue for as long as Saddam is in power. Moreover, no international law can prevent the United States from taking actions to protect its vital interests, when it is manifestly clear that there is a choice to be made between law and survival. I believe, however, that such a choice is not presented in the case of Iraq. Indeed, should we decide to proceed, that action can be justified within the framework of international law rather than outside it. In fact, though a new UN resolution may be helpful in building international consensus, the existing resolutions from 1991 are sufficient from a legal standpoint. We also need to look at the relationship between our national goal of regime change in Iraq and our goal of victory in the war against terror. In the case of Iraq, it would be more difficult for the United States to succeed alone, but still possible. By contrast, the war against terror manifestly requires broad and continuous international cooperation. Our ability to secure this kind of cooperation can be severely damaged by unilateral action against Iraq. If the Administration has reason to believe otherwise, it ought to share those reasons with the Congress - - since it is asking Congress to endorse action that might well impair a more urgent task: continuing to disrupt and destroy the international terror network. I was one of the few Democrats in the U.S. Senate who supported the war resolution in 1991. And I felt betrayed by the first Bush administration's hasty departure from the battlefield, even as Saddam began to renew his persecution of the Kurds of the North and the Shiites of the South - - groups we had encouraged to rise up against Saddam. It is worth noting, however, that the conditions in 1991 when that resolution was debated in Congress were very different from the conditions this year as Congress prepares to debate a new resolution. Then, Saddam had sent his armies across an international border to invade Kuwait and annex its territory. This year, 11 years later, there is no such invasion; instead we are prepared to cross an international border to change the government of Iraq. However justified our proposed action may be, this change in role nevertheless has consequences for world opinion and can affect the war against terrorism if we proceed unilaterally. Secondly, in 1991, the first President Bush patiently and skillfully built a broad international coalition. His task was easier than that confronted his son, in part because of Saddam's invasion of Kuwait. Nevertheless, every Arab nation except Jordan supported our military efforts and some of them supplied troops. Our allies in Europe and Asia supported the coalition without exception. Yet this year, by contrast, many of our allies in Europe and Asia are thus far opposed to what President Bush is doing and the few who support us condition their support on the passage of a new U.N. resolution. Third, in 1991, a strong United Nations resolution was in place before the Congressional debate ever began; this year although we have residual authority based on resolutions dating back to the first war in Iraq, we have nevertheless begun to seek a new United Nations resolution and have thus far failed to secure one. Fourth, the coalition assembled in 1991 paid all of the significant costs of the war, while this time, the American taxpayers will be asked to shoulder hundreds of billions of dollars in costs on our own. Fifth, President George H. W. Bush purposely waited until after the mid-term elections of 1990 to push for a vote at the beginning of the new Congress in January of 1991. President George W. Bush, by contrast, is pushing for a vote in this Congress immediately before the election. Rather than making efforts to dispel concern at home an abroad about the role of politics in the timing of his policy, the President is publicly taunting Democrats with the political consequences of a "no" vote - - even as the Republican National Committee runs pre-packaged advertising based on the same theme - - in keeping with the political strategy clearly described in a White House aide's misplaced computer disk, which advised Republican operatives that their principal game plan for success in the election a few weeks away was to "focus on the war." Vice President Cheney, meanwhile indignantly described suggestions of political motivation "reprehensible." The following week he took his discussion of war strategy to the Rush Limbaugh show. The foreshortening of deliberation in the Congress robs the country of the time it needs for careful analysis of what may lie before it. Such consideration is all the more important because of the Administration's failure thus far to lay out an assessment of how it thinks the course of a war will run - - even while it has given free run to persons both within and close to the administration to suggest that this will be an easy conquest. Neither has the Administration said much to clarify its idea of what is to follow regime change or of the degree of engagement it is prepared to accept for the United States in Iraq in the months and years after a regime change has taken place. By shifting from his early focus after September 11th on war against terrorism to war against Iraq, the President has manifestly disposed of the sympathy, good will and solidarity compiled by America and transformed it into a sense of deep misgiving and even hostility. In just one year, the President has somehow squandered the international outpouring of sympathy, goodwill and solidarity that followed the attacks of September 11th and converted it into anger and apprehension aimed much more at the United States than at the terrorist network - - much as we manage to squander in one year's time the largest budget surpluses in history and convert them into massive fiscal deficits. He has compounded this by asserting a new doctrine - - of preemption. The doctrine of preemption is based on the idea that in the era of proliferating WMD, and against the background of a sophisticated terrorist threat, the United States cannot wait for proof of a fully established mortal threat, but should rather act at any point to cut that short. The problem with preemption is that in the first instance it is not needed in order to give the United States the means to act in its own defense against terrorism in general or Iraq in particular. But that is a relatively minor issue compared to the longer-term consequences that can be foreseen for this doctrine. To begin with, the doctrine is presented in open-ended terms, which means that if Iraq if the first point of application, it is not necessarily the last. In fact, the very logic of the concept suggests a string of military engagements against a succession of sovereign states: Syria, Libya, North Korea, Iran, etc., wherever the combination exists of an interest in weapons of mass destruction together with an ongoing role as host to or participant in terrorist operations. It means also that if the Congress approves the Iraq resolution just proposed by the Administration it is simultaneously creating the precedent for preemptive action anywhere, anytime this or any future president so decides. The Bush Administration may now be realizing that national and international cohesion are strategic assets. But it is a lesson long delayed and clearly not uniformly and consistently accepted by senior members of the cabinet. >From the outset, the Administration has operated in a manner calculated to please the portion of its base that occupies the far right, at the expense of solidarity among Americans and between America and her allies. On the domestic front, the Administration, having delayed many months before conceding the need to create an institution outside the White House to manage homeland defense, has been willing to see progress on the new department held up, for the sake of an effort to coerce the Congress into stripping civil service protections from tens of thousands of federal employees. Far more damaging, however, is the Administration's attack on fundamental constitutional rights. The idea that an American citizen can be imprisoned without recourse to judicial process or remedies, and that this can be done on the say-so of the President or those acting in his name, is beyond the pale. Regarding other countries, the Administration's disdain for the views of others is well documented and need not be reviewed here. It is more important to note the consequences of an emerging national strategy that not only celebrates American strengths, but appears to be glorifying the notion of dominance. If what America represents to the world is leadership in a commonwealth of equals, then our friends are legion; if what we represent to the world is empire, then it is our enemies who will be legion. At this fateful juncture in our history it is vital that we see clearly who are our enemies, and that we deal with them. It is also important, however, that in the process we preserve not only ourselves as individuals, but our nature as a people dedicated to the rule of law. DANGERS OF ABANDONING IRAQ Moreover, if we quickly succeed in a war against the weakened and depleted fourth rate military of Iraq and then quickly abandon that nation as President Bush has abandoned Afghanistan after quickly defeating a fifth rate military there, the resulting chaos could easily pose a far greater danger to the United States than we presently face from Saddam. We know that he has stored secret supplies of biological and chemical weapons throughout his country. We have no evidence, however, that he has shared any of those weapons with terrorist group. However, if Iraq came to resemble Afghanistan - - with no central authority but instead local and regional warlords with porous borders and infiltrating members of Al Qaeda than these widely dispersed supplies of weapons of mass destruction might well come into the hands of terrorist groups. If we end the war in Iraq, the way we ended the war in Afghanistan, we could easily be worse off than we are today. When Secretary Rumsfield was asked recently about what our responsibility for restabilizing Iraq would be in an aftermath of an invasion, he said, "that's for the Iraqis to come together and decide." During one of the campaign debates in 2000 when then Governor Bush was asked if America should engage in any sort of "nation building" in the aftermath of a war in which we have involved our troops, he stated gave the purist expression of what is now a Bush doctrine: "I don't think so. I think what we need to do is convince people who live in the lands they live in to build the nations. Maybe I'm missing something here. We're going to have a kind of nation building corps in America? Absolutely not." The events of the last 85 years provide ample evidence that our approach to winning the peace that follows war is almost as important as winning the war itself. The absence of enlightened nation building after World War I led directly to the conditions which made Germany vulnerable to fascism and the rise to Adolph Hitler and made all of Europe vulnerable to his evil designs. By contrast the enlightened vision embodied in the Marshall plan, NATO, and the other nation building efforts in the aftermath of World War II led directly to the conditions that fostered prosperity and peace for most the years since this city gave birth to the United Nations. Two decades ago, when the Soviet Union claimed the right to launch a pre-emptive war in Afghanistan, we properly encouraged and then supported the resistance movement which, a decade later, succeeded in defeating the Soviet Army's efforts. Unfortunately, when the Russians left, we abandoned the Afghans and the lack of any coherent nation building program led directly to the conditions which fostered Al Qaeda terrorist bases and Osama Bin Laden's plotting against the World Trade Center. Incredibly, after defeating the Taliban rather easily, and despite pledges from President Bush that we would never again abandon Afghanistan we have done precisely that. And now the Taliban and Al Qaeda are quickly moving back to take up residence there again. A mere two years after we abandoned Afghanistan the first time, Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Following a brilliant military campaign, the U.S. abandoned the effort to destroy Saddam's military prematurely and allowed him to remain in power. What is a potentially even more serious consequence of this push to begin a new war as quickly as possible is the damage it can do not just to America's prospects to winning the war against terrorism but to America's prospects for continuing the historic leadership we began providing to the world 57 years ago, right here in this city by the bay. WHAT CONGRESS SHOULD DO I believe, therefore, that the resolution that the President has asked Congress to pass is much too broad in the authorities it grants, and needs to be narrowed. The President should be authorized to take action to deal with Saddam Hussein as being in material breach of the terms of the truce and therefore a continuing threat to the security of the region. To this should be added that his continued pursuit of weapons of mass destruction is potentially a threat to the vital interests of the United States. But Congress should also urge the President to make every effort to obtain a fresh demand from the Security Council for prompt, unconditional compliance by Iraq within a definite period of time. If the Council will not provide such language, then other choices remain open, but in any event the President should be urged to take the time to assemble the broadest possible international support for his course of action. Anticipating that the President will still move toward unilateral action, the Congress should establish now what the administration's thinking is regarding the aftermath of a US attack for the purpose of regime change. Specifically, Congress should establish why the president believes that unilateral action will not severely damage the fight against terrorist networks, and that preparations are in place to deal with the effects of chemical and biological attacks against our allies, our forces in the field, and even the home-front. The resolution should also require commitments from the President that action in Iraq will not be permitted to distract from continuing and improving work to reconstruct Afghanistan, an that the United States will commit to stay the course for the reconstruction of Iraq. The Congressional resolution should make explicitly clear that authorities for taking these actions are to be presented as derivatives from existing Security Council resolutions and from international law: not requiring any formal new doctrine of pre-emption, which remains to be discussed subsequently in view of its gravity. PRE-EMPTION DOCTRINE Last week President Bush added a troubling new element to this debate by proposing a broad new strategic doctrine that goes far beyond issues related to Iraq and would effect the basic relationship between the United States and the rest of the world community. Article 51 of the United Nations charter recognizes the right of any nation to defend itself, including the right in some circumstances to take pre-emptive actions in order to deal with imminent threats. President Bush now asserts that we will take pre-emptive action even if we take the threat we perceive is not imminent. If other nations assert the same right then the rule of law will quickly be replaced by the reign of fear - - any nation that perceives circumstances that could eventually lead to an imminent threat would be justified under this approach in taking military action against another nation. An unspoken part of this new doctrine appears to be that we claim this right for ourselves - - and only for ourselves. It is, in that sense, part of a broader strategy to replace ideas like deterrence and containment with what some in the administration "dominance." This is because President Bush is presenting us with a proposition that contains within itself one of the most fateful decisions in our history: a decision to abandon what we have thought was America's mission in the world - - a world in which nations are guided by a common ethic codified in the form of international law - - if we want to survive. AMERICA'S MISSION IN THE WORLD We have faced such a choice once before, at the end of the second World War. At that moment, America's power in comparison to the rest of the world was if anything greater than it is now, and the temptation was clearly to use that power to assure ourselves that there would be no competitor and no threat to our security for the foreseeable future. The choice we made, however, was to become a co-founder of what we now think of as the post-war era, based on the concepts of collective security and defense, manifested first of all in the United Nations. Through all the dangerous years that followed, when we understood that the defense of freedom required the readiness to put the existence of the nation itself into the balance, we never abandoned our belief that what we were struggling to achieve was not bounded by our own physical security, but extended to the unmet hopes of humankind. The issue before us is whether we now face circumstances so dire and so novel that we must choose one objective over the other. So it is reasonable to conclude that we face a problem that is severe, chronic, and likely to become worse over time. But is a general doctrine of pre-emption necessary in order to deal with this problem? With respect to weapons of mass destruction, the answer is clearly not. The Clinton Administration launched a massive series of air strikes against Iraq for the state purpose of setting back his capacity to pursue weapons of mass destruction. There was no perceived need for new doctrine or new authorities to do so. The limiting factor was the state of our knowledge concerning the whereabouts of some assets, and a concern for limiting consequences to the civilian populace, which in some instances might well have suffered greatly. Does Saddam Hussein present an imminent threat, and if he did would the United States be free to act without international permission? If he presents an imminent threat we would be free to act under generally accepted understandings of article 51 of the UN Charter which reserves for member states the right to act in self-defense. If Saddam Hussein does not present an imminent threat, then is it justifiable for the Administration to be seeking by every means to precipitate a confrontation, to find a cause for war, and to attack? There is a case to be made that further delay only works to Saddam Hussein's advantage, and that the clock should be seen to have been running on the issue of compliance for a decade: therefore not needing to be reset again to the starting point. But to the extent that we have any concern for international support, whether for its political or material value, hurrying the process will be costly. Even those who now agree that Saddam Hussein must go, may divide deeply over the wisdom of presenting the United States as impatient for war. At the same time, the concept of pre-emption is accessible to other countries. There are plenty of potential imitators: India/Pakistan; China/Taiwan; not to forget Israel/Iraq or Israel/Iran. Russia has already cited it in anticipation of a possible military push into Georgia, on grounds that this state has not done enough to block the operations of Chechen rebels. What this doctrine does is to destroy the goal of a world in which states consider themselves subject to law, particularly in the matter of standards for the use of violence against each other. That concept would be displaced by the notion that there is no law but the discretion of the President of the United States. I believe that we can effectively defend ourselves abroad and at home without dimming our principles. Indeed, I believe that our success in defending ourselves depends precisely on not giving up what we stand for. ------------------------------------------- Macdonald Stainsby http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/listinfo/rad-green http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/listinfo/leninist-international -- In the contradiction lies the hope. --Bertholt Brecht From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Fri Sep 27 19:40:35 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 19:40:35 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17v6ax-0003k4-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 19:40:35 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17v6am-0001OQ-00; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 19:40:24 -0600 Received: from mta7.pltn13.pbi.net ([64.164.98.8]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17v6aM-0001OH-00 for ; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 19:39:58 -0600 Received: from sabri ([66.124.235.137]) by mta7.pltn13.pbi.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built May 7 2001)) with SMTP id <0H3400AHVKMLJS@mta7.pltn13.pbi.net> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Fri, 27 Sep 2002 18:39:57 -0700 (PDT) From: Sabri Oncu To: ALIST Message-id: MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Importance: Normal X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-priority: Normal Subject: [A-List] Some guidance please Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 18:42:33 -0700 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 18:42:33 -0700 Stan wrote: > They're both energy companies. Duke Power ...... "You got The Right One, baby!" > Thanks, comrade. You are very welcome. Sabri From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 04:51:34 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 04:51:34 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vFCA-0005sI-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 04:51:34 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vFC0-00046y-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 04:51:24 -0600 Received: from web20710.mail.yahoo.com ([216.136.226.183]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vFBD-00046p-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 04:50:35 -0600 Message-ID: <20020928105035.8206.qmail@web20710.mail.yahoo.com> Received: from [195.92.194.14] by web20710.mail.yahoo.com via HTTP; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:50:35 BST From: =?iso-8859-1?q?Bob=20Pitt?= To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Subject: [A-List] What Next? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:50:35 +0100 (BST) Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:50:35 +0100 (BST) Dave Renton on the future of the internet John Sullivan on the banning of Batasuna Rod Quinn on the first Palestinian Intifada Norm Dixon on how the US armed Saddam Hussein Vladimir Derer on the Labour Party NEC elections Jim Mortimer on Communist/Labour MP Shapurji Saklatvala Martin Sullivan on the London mayoral election Letters about the French elections, the fall of Militant, the Socialist Alliance The usual sort of thing Plus recent additions to the SOCIALIST HISTORY section 2 articles by POUM leader Andrés Nin on the Spanish Revolution and Civil War And to the NEW INTERVENTIONS section Jim Higgins on 1956 And All That __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Everything you'll ever need on one web page from News and Sport to Email and Music Charts http://uk.my.yahoo.com From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 05:11:34 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 05:11:34 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vFVW-0005xN-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 05:11:34 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vFVM-0004GN-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 05:11:24 -0600 Received: from web20708.mail.yahoo.com ([216.136.226.181]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vFUP-0004G8-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 05:10:25 -0600 Message-ID: <20020928111025.46761.qmail@web20708.mail.yahoo.com> Received: from [195.92.194.14] by web20708.mail.yahoo.com via HTTP; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:10:25 BST From: =?iso-8859-1?q?Bob=20Pitt?= To: a-list MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Subject: [A-List] What Next? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:10:25 +0100 (BST) Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:10:25 +0100 (BST) What Next? No.24 now online http://mysite.freeserve.com/whatnext Dave Renton on the future of the internet John Sullivan on the banning of Batasuna Rod Quinn on the first Palestinian Intifada Norm Dixon on how the US armed Saddam Hussein Vladimir Derer on the Labour Party NEC elections Jim Mortimer on Communist/Labour MP Shapurji Saklatvala Martin Sullivan on the London mayoral election Letters about the French elections, the fall of Militant, the Socialist Alliance The usual sort of thing Plus recent additions to the SOCIALIST HISTORY section 2 articles by POUM leader Andrés Nin on the Spanish Revolution and Civil War And to the NEW INTERVENTIONS section Jim Higgins on 1956 And All That __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Everything you'll ever need on one web page from News and Sport to Email and Music Charts http://uk.my.yahoo.com From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 05:12:37 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 05:12:37 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vFWX-0005xY-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 05:12:37 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vFWJ-0004H1-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 05:12:23 -0600 Received: from web20704.mail.yahoo.com ([216.136.226.177]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vFUw-0004GE-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 05:10:58 -0600 Message-ID: <20020928111057.72662.qmail@web20704.mail.yahoo.com> Received: from [195.92.194.14] by web20704.mail.yahoo.com via HTTP; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:10:57 BST From: =?iso-8859-1?q?Bob=20Pitt?= To: a-list MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Subject: [A-List] What Next? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:10:57 +0100 (BST) Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:10:57 +0100 (BST) What Next? No.24 now online http://mysite.freeserve.com/whatnext Dave Renton on the future of the internet John Sullivan on the banning of Batasuna Rod Quinn on the first Palestinian Intifada Norm Dixon on how the US armed Saddam Hussein Vladimir Derer on the Labour Party NEC elections Jim Mortimer on Communist/Labour MP Shapurji Saklatvala Martin Sullivan on the London mayoral election Letters about the French elections, the fall of Militant, the Socialist Alliance The usual sort of thing Plus recent additions to the SOCIALIST HISTORY section 2 articles by POUM leader Andrés Nin on the Spanish Revolution and Civil War And to the NEW INTERVENTIONS section Jim Higgins on 1956 And All That __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Everything you'll ever need on one web page from News and Sport to Email and Music Charts http://uk.my.yahoo.com From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 07:26:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:26:33 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vHc8-0007yM-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:26:32 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vHbt-0005Cr-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:26:17 -0600 Received: from cmailg1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.195.171]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vHaI-0005CT-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:24:38 -0600 Received: from [195.92.168.141] (helo=tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk) by cmailg1.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vHaF-0002nw-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:24:35 +0100 Received: from modem-2422.tiger.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.136.217.118] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vHaD-0007Zx-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:24:33 +0100 From: "Mark Jones" To: Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Importance: Normal Subject: [A-List] Assia Times: After Saddam: Fledgling states, oceans of oil Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:23:43 +0100 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:23:43 +0100 By Francesco Sisci BEIJING - The ongoing controversy between the United States and its allies over whether to make war on Iraq is in many respects out of date. The war is already on, and the real issue is not whether to wage it but how to win it. The war began the moment the United States declared that it was going to overthrow Saddam Hussein. It was already bombing Iraq's two no-fly zones but, most important, it was cordoning off Saddam politically and preparing for his demise. To stop the war after months of relentless propaganda against Saddam's government would be to lose the war. In fact, Saddam would be emboldened to step up his rearmament campaign. More important, backing off now would give greater sway to the anti-US hardliners in Saudi Arabia and Iran. And in fact the real target of the war on Iraq is not Iraq itself but Saudi Arabia. By toppling Saddam, the United States will gain control of the Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil reserves, shielding itself from the Saudi threat of raising oil prices and thus choking the already shaky Western economies. As well, with its hands on Kuwaiti and Iraqi oil, Washington will be in a better position to influence the power struggle in Saudi Arabia over the succession, and to make sure the anti-US elements there who armed and supported al-Qaeda's terrorists are eliminated. Iran would also feel the pinch of the US presence in Iraq, though here it is more difficult to assess whether the moderates would be able to use this new US presence to increase the pace of reforms, or whether the radicals would successfully wave the flag of a US threat. The unanswered question is: Couldn't Saudi Arabia be pressured into toeing the US line without waging a risky war on Iraq? The United States in effect controls Saudi security; it should have been easier to use existing US clout to force the Saudis' hand than to start a war with Iraq. The latter course holds a huge number of risks, including the fate of the Kurds in northern Iraq, the Shi'ites in the south and the tribes loyal to Saddam in the center. Even with Saddam gone that picture will remain the same and it is not clear how it will be solved (see War on Iraq: Costs and consequences, September 19). It is not very clear why the US chose what appears to be the most difficult track of doing in Saddam and thus putting indirect pressure on the Saudis, rather than pressuring the Saudis directly. The US choice appears to be similar to that made in Afghanistan. The invasion there put pressure on Pakistan, which was, with Saudi Arabia, the greatest supporter of the Taliban regime. Pakistan understood the new tune and, thanks partly to various and diverse demands from China and India, decided to sing along, cutting off its aid to the al-Qaeda fighters. The US strategy on Iraq appears the same: topple Saddam, install a new leader, and force Saudis to follow along. If it is going to win the ongoing war, the United States must understand that Iraq could be more complicated than Afghanistan, for several reasons. War on Iraq could irk Muslim sensibilities by bringing infidels arguably too close to the holy ground of Mecca. Furthermore, this could give Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon the opportunity to reoccupy the Palestinian territories and prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state. This would further inflame Arab and Muslim sentiments, which have been the hotbed and the fuel of the anti-US terrorist actions. It might well be that in the short term after the war nothing will happen, because the Arab states will feel subdued. But it is hard to believe that those inflamed sentiments would not burst forth some time in the future with a new wave of terrorism. To prevent this, a Palestinian state must be established. The Afghans, after the US-led war in their country, have been provided aid and greater hope for peace and development; in other words they now have something to lose, new pressure points the US can use to manage them. The Palestinians must be given something to lose as well, ie, a state and hope for development. If they have nothing they simply can't be managed, other than by eliminating the problem by wiping them out. But this is not possible because of the ethical values shared by the US and the Israelis. Not only that, but while it might be possible to conceive of erasing the Chechens as they have few brethren outside Chechnya, the Palestinians have Arab brethren all over the Middle East and Africa who are already simmering over the plight of the Palestinians. The creation of a Palestinian state should thus be the cornerstone of the peace settlement after the war on Iraq. This more than anything else would give clout to the new US presence in the Persian Gulf region and could help win over the Saudis and Iranians. To achieve this end, as many US analysts have already pointed out, the United States must be prepared for a long-term involvement in the region. States are not born out of thin air, and here we are thinking of a whole new geography for the Middle East and Central Asia. This means that the US could be there for decades to bolster the existence of the fledgling states born of the war. But this US presence in the area won't be without rewards - there is the oil issue. After the war the US can think of controlling directly or indirectly most of the Gulf's oil. Moreover, with its foothold in Central Asia, which is not limited to Afghanistan but also includes a few ex-Soviet republics in Central Asia and the Caucasus, the US will have a big say on oil there too. Some 30 years after the oil shock that brought the West to its knees, the power of Western oil companies will be vindicated. It could well be the resurrection of the Seven Sisters - the seven mega-corporations that dominate the global oil industry (Exxon, Gulf, Texaco, Mobil, Socal, BP and Shell) - although some of their names and profiles have changed. The Western hold on oil will be the last straw for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which is already weakened by years of division. The West will be able to maintain the price of oil at the level fit for the varying economic needs of development. This hold can't last forever and the lessons of the past should not be ignored. The lesson of the 1970s was that the best way to control oil prices to decrease dependence on it. The West has to develop different sources of energy that are not dependent on oil, and possibly in the future not even dependent on natural gas. Fuel cells could greatly help, and this technology could be marketable in 20 years, the time frame in which the US could hold full control of the Middle East and Central Asia. The 20-year horizon for control of oil and development of new energy technologies could also provide a long-term safety grid for economic development, now deprived of the bubble dream of the "new economy". In the short term the toppling of Saddam, the creation of a Palestinian state, the emergence of a new, moderate Iran, a decrease in oil prices, new military spending and a new feeling of safety in the West could help trigger an economic recovery some time in 2004. Still remaining to be tackled would be the possible widespread resentment among the Arabs, who will have to tolerate a greater US presence in the region, and discontent among the Europeans, who will feel they were forced into joining the United States in another ill-conceived war. These two problems loom very large in the second half of 2003 and early 2004 even if the war itself goes perfectly well. Moreover, if the US is bogged down for decades in the region, its control of the region's oil will be good for China, but not as good for Russia. It will be good for China because while the US is preoccupied with the Middle East it will have no desire to get involved in the even messier picture of China, which will carry on with its economic development and reforms without fear of the United States. The US control of oil and parallel development of alternative fuels is fully consistent with the interests of the Chinese, who are net oil importers and therefore keen on a low oil price. It's a different story for Russia, which is a net oil exporter. Its oil policies will have to be in tune with US decisions, as Washington can always play its Middle East oil card against Russia. The practical choice for Russia, then, will be to toe the US economic line even more closely. The payoff for Moscow for swallowing its pride would be to have its oil companies among the new Seven Sisters, which in a few years could bring about a new isolation of China. In this scenario, China could find itself out of the energy loop and dependent for oil and technology on the goodwill of the United States and its partners. China has perhaps a couple of years to forestall such a predicament by proving that it does not want to be America's enemy or even its adversary, but a partner. The alternative, counting on some of America's plans to go awry, could lead China down a long and lonely road. (©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.) From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 07:28:06 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:28:06 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vHdd-00084o-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:28:06 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vHdM-0005DM-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:27:48 -0600 Received: from cmailg7.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.195.177]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vHaQ-0005CZ-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:24:46 -0600 Received: from [195.92.168.141] (helo=tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk) by cmailg7.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vHaP-00070a-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:24:45 +0100 Received: from modem-2422.tiger.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.136.217.118] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vHaM-0007Zx-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:24:43 +0100 From: "Mark Jones" To: "a-list" Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Importance: Normal Subject: [A-List] Asia Times: US vs China: A new Cold War? Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:23:52 +0100 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:23:52 +0100 By Jing-dong Yuan MONTEREY, California - On September 20, the George W Bush administration released the National Security Strategy of the United States. A comprehensive document laying out America's foreign and security policy in the wake of last September's terrorist attacks, it vows to prevent the emergence of any future competitors, commits the US to use its military, political, and economic resources to encourage open societies and democracy, and reorients US military strategy toward preemptive actions. Analysts have likened this document to NSC-68, the blueprint by the Harry Truman administration declaring the onset of the Cold War. Nice comparison. But the circumstances are so different. In the now famous "X" article published in Foreign Affairs in 1947, George Kennan, one of the postwar architects of US foreign policy, proposed that Washington adopt a strategy of containment against the perceived Soviet expansion beyond Eastern Europe. With the declaration of the Truman Doctrine and the introduction of the Marshall Plan, the US embarked on a global crusade against the Soviet Union on the ideological, political, and economic fronts. The Cold War ensued. The United States was facing a formidable foe at the time. The Soviet Union controlled most of Eastern and Central Europe, had deployed predominant conventional forces against war-ravaged Western Europe, and was competing for influence vis-a-vis the US in the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, Indochina, and the Caribbean. With the Soviet Union achieving parity and even numerical superiority in strategic nuclear weapons in the 1970s, the challenge to US security and global interests were unprecedented and the stakes huge. But the United States is facing no such foes today. The Cold War has been over for 13 years. Given its weak economy, low military morale, and endemic ethnic problems, Russia no longer poses - nor is it willing to pose - a serious challenge to US interests. Instead, the Vladimir Putin government is seeking a new type of strategic relationship with the United States. This has been clearly demonstrated by Russia's mild reactions toward the US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, its acquiescence in US military presence in Central Asia in the anti-terrorism campaign, and the signing the Moscow Treaty. Who, then, is the potential challenger? The attention turns to China. Indeed, while the document emphasizes that the United States "welcomes the emergence of a strong, peaceful, and prosperous China", it also admonishes Beijing not to pursue "advanced military capabilities that can threaten its neighbors in the Asia-Pacific region". As if to warn Beijing against even contemplating launching any credible threat to the US, the document states: "Our forces will be strong enough to dissuade potential adversaries from pursuing a military buildup in hopes of surpassing, or equaling, the power of the United States." This seems to be in line with the conclusion of a July Department of Defense (DOD) report assessing China's military capabilities. The DOD report highlights a number of key findings. First, actual annual Chinese defense spending is estimated at US$65 billion, much higher than Beijing's official figure of $20 billion. Compared with Taiwan's defense budget, which has been declining over the past few years, China's defense expenditure has seen double-digit increases over a decade. In a drawn-out arms race across the Taiwan Strait, Beijing could conceivably outspend Taipei. Second, the report identifies a doctrinal shift in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) toward preemption and surprise. Compensating for equipment and technical deficiencies, the PLA is paying greater attention to asymmetrical warfare to explore enemy weakness. It now emphasizes the importance of information and electronic warfare. It also is interested in the development of ASAT (anti-satellite) capability. Third, Chinese ballistic missiles remain a credible and most threatening instrument of deterrent and coercion against Taiwan. They also serve to dissuade the United States from intervention in a Taiwan crisis and raise the cost of such intervention. However, such assessments miss several important points. First, Beijing does not have the intention, let alone capabilities, to challenge US interests. While rhetorically extolling the virtue of multipolarity and a fair and equitable international political and economic order, China knows well - and is resigned to the reality - that the United States' prominent position will continue for at least several more decades. At the same time, China has benefited from, and continues to thrive on, the existing international political and economic arrangements. China is a nuclear power and one of the five veto-holding United Nations Security Council permanent members. These titles bestow power and prestige. China's economic development is contingent upon access to markets, capital, and technology transfers. Indeed, China is the largest recipient country of international financial assistance and of foreign direct investment. Second, China's military capabilities, while growing and improving, are a generation - if not more - behind those of the powerful US military in terms of equipment, power projection, and C4I (command, control, communications, computers and intelligence). One can use purchasing-power parity to tabulate a higher defense expenditure figure for the PLA, but the hard reality is that the Chinese military remains hamstrung by the inability of the domestic defense industry to provide advanced weapons systems, lack of sufficient training, and almost no combat experience under modern, high-tech environment. China's acquisitions of Russian weaponry are of great concern; at the same time, they also demonstrate China's own weakness. Third, Beijing will likely remain inward-looking for the foreseeable future as the country undergoes significant changes with the leadership transition, major socioeconomic adjustments imposed upon by its accession to the World Trade Organization, and growing challenges of good governance, accountability, and institution building. With the exception of Taiwan, China's energies will be largely consumed in addressing these domestic issues. If anything, the White House document may be seen by Beijing as a further indication of US suspicion of and hostility toward China. What China worries about is how a militarily strong, diplomatically arrogant, and politically and ideologically threatening United States can pose a serious threat to its vital interests. These would include US military strategy, its Taiwan policy, and its overall approach toward China. On March 9, the Los Angeles Times reported the leaked US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) that contains contingency plans to use nuclear weapons against China and six other countries. For Beijing, the revelation of the targeting list raises a serious issue about US trustworthiness: China and the United States signed a de-targeting agreement in 1997. Even before the Los Angeles Times leak, Chinese strategic analysts had already been aware of what they considered to be fundamental shifts in the post-Cold War US strategic posture. The so-called new strategic triad of offensive systems (nuclear and non-nuclear), active and passive defenses, and the defense-industrial infrastructure and shift from deterrence to preemption represent the core of the US military strategy. This new strategic posture would thus enable the United States to reserve massive retaliatory capabilities (even after the significant reduction of its strategic nuclear force) against the other major nuclear powers, to confront and neutralize threats from the so-called "rogue" states through its missile defense systems, and to deal with any potential opponents effectively by applying precision-guided munitions. The ultimate aim, according to Chinese analysts, is to maintain US military dominance and seek absolute security. However, what has fundamentally changed is the premise upon which nuclear weapons are to be used. The threshold for nuclear use has been lowered and, in contravention to its 1978 pledge and its negative security assurance (NSA) commitment not to use nuclear weapons against NPT NNWS (Non-Proliferation Treaty, Non-Nuclear Weapon Storage) signatory states, the new posture suggests the use of nuclear weapons against hardened, difficult-to-penetrate targets, as retaliation against WMD (weapons of mass destruction) use, and as responses in certain circumstances. Indeed, what worries China the most is nuclear use "in the event of surprising military developments", including a war between China and Taiwan. This only convinces Beijing the high likelihood of US military intervention in the event that the mainland must use force to resolve the Taiwan issue. US policy toward Taiwan is a serious concern for China. From Washington's standpoint, how to enable Taiwan to defend itself against growing Chinese military coercion remains a critical component of overall US strategy in East Asia. That strategy envisages strong alliance relationships, forward US military presence, and forestalling the rise of any major power that may challenge vital US interests. Within this broader context, the ability and resolve to help Taiwan defend itself not only fulfills key US obligations and commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act but also demonstrates the resolve and credibility of its commitments to allies and friends. Indeed, President Bush has moved away from a Taiwan policy anchored in "strategic ambiguity". Administration officials have emphasized US obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act, a strong preference for peaceful resolution of the issue, and explicit opposition to coercion and the use of force. In April 2001, the Bush administration approved the largest arms sales to Taiwan in more than a decade. Taiwanese Defense Minister Tang Yaoming was granted permission to travel to the United States last March and met with high-ranking US officials. The US and Taiwan are also engaged in substantive discussions on boosting bilateral defense cooperation. All of these developments add substance to Bush's controversial statement that the United States would do "whatever it takes" to help Taiwan defend itself. Finally, the overall US China policy remains ambivalent. On the one hand, the Bush administration has dropped the "strategic competitor" rhetoric and adopted a policy of engaging China where it must but confronting the latter where it must. On the other hand, the United States has been less sensitive to core Chinese interests such as Taiwan and unnecessarily provokes Beijing. While seeking and praising China's cooperation in anti-terrorism, Washington's post-September 11 policy toward South and Central Asia also worries Beijing. China is particularly concerned that prolonged US military operations may set precedents for future interference in domestic affairs and the further erosion of the UN's authority. Expanded and permanent US military presence closer to China's doorstep could be seen by Beijing as an apparent if not real encirclement. The US National Security Strategy sets the broad outline for America's role and objectives in the world. The global geo-strategic environment has changed and the United States must adapt to lead, not to imagine and create enemies. The US could use its enormous resources to bring stability; but it could also abuse them to alienate and anger others. The least that the Bush administration could and must do is to avoid a self-fulfilling prophecy of treating and turning China into a post-Cold War Soviet Union. That would be the worst outcome for the United States and the world as well. (Dr Jing-dong Yuan is a senior research associate at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, where he also teaches Chinese politics and Northeast Asia security and arms-control issues.) From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 07:29:48 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:29:48 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vHfF-000896-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:29:45 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vHey-0005Du-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:29:28 -0600 Received: from cmailm4.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.193.211]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vHau-0005Ci-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:25:16 -0600 Received: from [195.92.168.141] (helo=tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk) by cmailm4.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vHas-0004GC-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:25:14 +0100 Received: from modem-2422.tiger.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.136.217.118] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vHak-0007Zx-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:25:06 +0100 From: "Mark Jones" To: "a-list" Cc: "pen-l" Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Importance: Normal Subject: [A-List] Asia Times: TWO CENTS' WORTH Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:24:02 +0100 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:24:02 +0100 Crippling debt and bankrupt solutions By Henry C K Liu Sovereign debts in local currency usually do not carry any default risk since the issuing government has the authority to issue money in domestic currency to repay its domestic debts. The only risk in excessive domestic sovereign debt comes from inflation. Investors in domestic-currency government bonds face only an interest rate risk, not default risk. Thus sovereign debts' default risks are exclusively linked to foreign-currency debts and their impact on currency exchange rates. For this reason, any government that takes on foreign debt is recklessly exposing its economy to unnecessary risk from external sources. If foreign debt is used to finance exports, a trade deficit will be deadly. But even the benefit from a trade surplus will first go to the foreign lenders, and the rest will have to be invested in foreign assets to defend the exchange rate of the local currency, with little benefit left for the domestic economy, particularly if global competition for export markets requires suppression of domestic wages under a race-to-the-bottom syndrome. That is why all foreign debts will inevitably become unsustainable and turn into distressed debts that cannot be cured by the debtor governments. A movement to tackle distressed sovereign dollar debts, particularly of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC), through an international bankruptcy regime has gained momentum in neo-liberal circles in recent years. A decade after feeble and ineffective attempts to resolve the Latin American sovereign dollar debt crises that developed in the 1980s, John Williamson of the Institute of International Economics (who coined the term "Washington consensus") proposed in 1992 an international legal mechanism for the revision of sovereign debt contracts "parallel to the Chapter 11 proceedings under the US bankruptcy law". After the 1994 Mexican financial crisis, a Bondholders Council was proposed to negotiate the restructure of dollar government bonds, together with changes in future bond covenants to permit a majority to alter terms of repayment to avoid a country default. Sovereign debt restructuring exercises have now become more complex and less manageable than in the 1970s and 1980s. The principal sources of financing then were syndicated loans floated typically as Eurodollar bonds, managed by a lead manager with the support of a relatively small group of other creditor banks. Even in the Korean and Brazilian debt restructuring in the 1990s, the tasks of aggregating loans and arriving at a common action were relatively simple. Liberalization of capital markets has led to a proliferation of credit instruments whose management and control has become a major policy challenge. Claims held in a variety of jurisdictions, by diverse groups of creditors and in varying ranges of securities, currencies and instruments (from sovereign bonds, syndicated loans, mutual funds, trade finance, distress debts investment and debt derivatives) are virtually impossible to aggregate and consequently collective action becomes much more difficult, if not impossible. In the face of this complexity, an enforceable and credible debt reorganization needs the sanction of an international treaty. The essence of the proposed IMF/Krueger Plan claims to be the introduction of changes in International Monetary Fund Articles of Agreement that would permit a "super majority" (analogous to the select committee of creditors under Chapter 11) to take collective action to make the terms of the agreement binding on the rest of the participants and permit the sanction of a collective action clause to form an integral part of future loan agreements, which would expedite the restructuring process, thereby gaining valuable time for the debtor. Wall Street is reported to be against the concept of super majority. Former Harvard (now Columbia) economist Jeffrey Sachs, having landed Russia in gangster capitalism with his shock-treatment approach to instant reform, called in 1995 for the provision to transitional economies the basic protections available to corporate borrowers in the United States, and proposed an International Bankruptcy Court. While then US Treasury secretary Robert Rubin was sympathetic, his deputy, Lawrence Summers, criticized the corporate analogy as potentially misleading on two grounds: first because "the decision of a state to suspend its debt service is at least partly volitional", meaning politically motivated rather than financially based, and second because "the safeguards against moral hazard built into domestic bankruptcy codes cannot be applied to sovereign debtors". The moral hazard problem permeating the system threatens to contaminate the gains of liberalized capital movements to make dreaded reintroduction of control of capital flow a rational alternative, as entertained by defecting Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) neo-liberal economist Paul Krugman in 1998. US aversion to any independent international mechanism that would arrive at legally binding decisions puts it strongly in favor of a voluntary private contractual approach on any issue, including restructuring sovereign debts (RSD). The US approach to RSD in HIPCs is in sharp contrast to its domestic laws concerning bankruptcy-insolvency, which provide decidedly more enlightened support and protection to corporate and municipal debtors, a heritage dating back to its debt-ridden colonial days. What all these neo-liberal RSD proposals fail to acknowledge is the fact that a government is not a corporation, former US president Ronald Reagan's anti-statist rhetorical assertions notwithstanding. Governments are not instituted merely to make profit for their power-brokering shareholders at the expense of the general population. A government belongs to the people, not a few special interest shareholders. Its job is to safeguard and improve the lives of the people by maintaining a safe and fair society with sustainable economic growth. Government cannot be run like a corporation, by externalizing the social costs of its actions to non-market sectors of the economy through failed market fundamentalism. Some governments do externalize such social costs to weaker nations through globalization, a policy historically known as imperialism. Getting government off the back of the people and the market is a euphemism for gangster capitalism, which can thrive on Wall Street as well as in post-Soviet Russia. In a market economy, the prime purpose of government credit is to stimulate employment and economic growth within a context of enlightened economic nationalism. Thus IMF insistence on fiscal austerity, increasing unemployment with an aim to service government foreign debt better, is irrational and self-defeating. Full employment with a fair and progressive tax structure strengthens sovereign credit rating through improved tax revenue with which to service sovereign debt, including foreign debt, even assuming that any government has any rational basis to incur foreign debt to begin with. Supply-siders mistakenly fixate on capital investment by focusing on corporate profits through layoffs and corporate tax reduction, sapping aggregate demand in the process and landing the global economy in overcapacity as a result. When Walter Wriston of Citibank asserted three decades ago that countries do not go bankrupt, he was right on target. What Wriston failed to anticipate when he catapulted his bank into the largest international financial institution in the world by recycling petro-dollars in 1973 was that while countries do not go bankrupt, they can certainly default on their foreign-currency debts, as history has plainly shown. The term "bankruptcy" can be traced back to Renaissance Italy, where private banking flourished by financing international trade and sovereign ambitions and, over time, evolved into modern financial institutions. A businessman unable to pay his debts then would have his trading bench destroyed and his collaterallized inventory foreclosed by his creditors. "Broken bench", banca rotta in Italian, gave rise to the word "bankruptcy". The primary focus of bankruptcy was on recovering the creditors' exposure, not the welfare of the debtor. In old England, for example, penalties for bankruptcy could be draconian and ranged from debtors' prison to the death penalty. To this day, British bankruptcy laws are much more pro-creditor than those of the United States. Even in the US, early bankruptcy laws, while relatively pro-debtor as natural in a debtor nation, were temporary measures taken during bad economic times. Historically, when economic conditions improved, bankruptcy laws were repealed. Even now, bankruptcy laws are periodically amended to meet changing economic conditions and political weather. Sovereigns do not go bankrupt. Impaired sovereign credit merely makes the next round of borrowing more costly or unavailable, which may serve as an effective cure for the neo-liberal financial market fundamentalist virus of foreign debts to finance exports under conditions of global overcapacity. RSD proposals are fancy pro-creditor gimmicks to keep HIPCs from invalidating debts saddled with serious lender liability issues. The Bankruptcy Act of 1898 was the first piece of US legislation to extend protection to corporations from creditors and served as the foundation of today's Chapter 11 of the bankruptcy code. There have been many acts and revisions (Bankruptcy Act of 1933 and 1934 during the Great Depression, Chandler Act of 1938, 1978, the first major overhaul since the Chandler Act, 1980 Bankruptcy Tax Act, 1984 amendments to the 1978 Act, the 1994 overhaul of the 1978 Act). >From there the bankruptcy regime has evolved under case law, and as of 2002, new legislation is pending in Congress to make it more difficult for consumers to file a Chapter 7 bankruptcy (complete debt dismissal) and force them into Chapter 13 (reorganization) repayment plan. Recent scandals of corporate fraud have given impetus to passage of the new revised code. Top management of the 25 biggest recent US corporate bankruptcies walked off with US$3.3 billion from insider share sales, severance payoffs and other rewards while their shareholders were left with substantial or total loss. When creditors suffer a loan loss, it is known in the trade as a haircut. It is an interesting image when one considers the fact that even after a person is dead, as bankrupt is financially dead, his or her hair will continue to grow for some period even in the grave. The IMF proposals appear to straddle the gray area between a default (ie, an involuntary haircut resulting in a reduction in net present value of debt) and a fully cooperative resolution (ie, a negotiated and voluntary haircut). The view the United States takes on the matter will determine which approach shall prevail. It is one of the ironies of the global debt regime that the world's largest debtor nation (the US) should have the most say about how others outside its borders must repay their debts on terms much harsher than within its borders. Bankruptcy in the US today seeks the dual purpose of helping the debtor as well as the creditor by finding a happy medium where the debtor can comfortably meet his installment obligation and the creditors can recoup as much of their principal as possible. The main emphasis is on rehabilitating the distressed debtor with court protection from predatory foreclosure by individual creditors, so that creditors collectively can maximize their recovery through orderly reorganization of the debtor finances. In general, a debtor does not need bankruptcy if there are no assets that creditors with judgments can attach, or the debtor's assets are exempt by law from seizure. This is generally the case in most HIPC distressed sovereign debts. Thus the application of a bankruptcy mechanism to sovereign foreign debt is fundamentally flawed. The worst that could happen to a sovereign in default would be lack of access to more foreign debt, a development that in fact would be salutary for most nations that have since learned from experience the evils of foreign debt. Chapter 11 allows the corporate debtor to continue core business activities under court protection while reorganizing it's finances so that it may continue to pay it's retained employees, reduce immediate obligations to it's creditors and salvage the salvageable for it's shareholders. Under this chapter, the debtor retains possession of his assets and continues operation with DIP (debtor-in-possession) financing: new loans which are senior to all pre-bankruptcy obligations, to meet administrative expenses. The order of priming after DIP financing places secured creditors first, unsecured creditors next and equity owners last. In other words, if there is not enough money to pay secured and unsecured creditors, the equity owners (original shareholders) will be wiped out entirely. Obviously, a nation with distressed sovereign debt cannot be liquidated and taken from its people by private foreign lenders. That is why nations do not go bankrupt. And that is why Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings will not work in sovereign foreign debt resolution. At the heart of Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code is an automatic stay of creditor actions against a debtor and a court-supervised preparation, confirmation and implementation of a plan of reorganization. This process is underwritten by the debtor-in-possession principle under which the debtor keeps control and possession of its assets. The logic of developing a reorganization plan is straightforward. Since the value of an ongoing concern is greater than if its assets were liquidated in a fire sale, it stands to reason that it is more efficient to reorganize than to liquidate during financial distress, since reorganization can preserve jobs and assets. Thus the international counterpart of the bankruptcy vehicle must also warrant the development of a reorganization plan that safeguards domestic development and social objectives and priorities. In practice, however, the focus of sovereign foreign debt restructuring has been to sanction officially the protection of foreign creditors, permitting them to exit non-performing loans at least cost while leaving the sovereign debtor with drastically scaled-down social and development goals and programs, usually under an IMF/creditor-sanctioned program of austere adjustment. Sovereigns that unwisely assume foreign debt can and often do face foreign-currency liquidity problems and financial conditions analogous to insolvency but they cannot be subject to liquidation of assets as provided for in national bankruptcy laws. Sovereign debt problems cannot therefore be resolved in the same manner as corporate debt. Sovereigns cannot have a liquidation value: in case of default on foreign loans, creditor recovery value would depend on a large number of intangibles, including the sovereign's capacity to generate future foreign-exchange earnings and its political/strategic importance to the official creditor community. The theory behind Chapter 11 is that an ongoing business is of greater value than if it is foreclosed on and assets liquidated at its worst financial phase. After a successful Chapter 11 reorganization, the business can continue with a restructured debt load and operate more efficiently than before and in doing so preserve jobs and asset value. Repayment of debts is made from future profits, proceeds from sale of some non-core assets, mergers or recapitalization. The shareholders will end up owning a small company or a company with only negative asset after debt obligations. Would citizens of HIPC after RSD through bankruptcy end up owning a smaller nation? Municipality bankruptcy is handled by Chapter 9 of the US bankruptcy code. The first municipal bankruptcy legislation was enacted in 1934 during the Great Depression, Public Law No 251, 48 Stat 798 (1934). Although Congress took care to draft the legislation so as not to interfere with the sovereign powers of the states as guaranteed by the Tenth Amendment to the constitution, the Supreme Court held the 1934 Act unconstitutional as an improper interference with the sovereignty of the states: Ashton v. Cameron County Water Improvement District (1936). Congress enacted a revised Municipal Bankruptcy Act in 1937, which was upheld by the Supreme Court in United States v. Bekins (1938). The law has been amended several times since 1937, most recently in 1994 (amending section 109(c)) as part of the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 1994. In the more than 60 years since Congress established a federal mechanism for the resolution of municipal debts, there have been fewer than 500 municipal bankruptcy petitions filed. Although Chapter 9 cases are rare, a filing by a large municipality can, like the 1994 filing by Orange county, California, involve huge sums in municipal debt. The December 6, 1994, declaration of bankruptcy was brought about by $1.7 billion in losses sustained by the 170-member municipal investment pool managed by Robert L Citron, the former county treasurer. Citron, who managed the pool "successfully" for more than two decades, used a high-risk strategy of investing in derivatives, reverse repos (repurchase agreements) and leveraging that had generated extraordinarily high returns until the crash. Responding to the pressure to keep interest earnings high, Citron, guided by his investment bankers, speculated on interest rates remaining stable or decreasing and he sought to maximize his gains by aggressive use of leverage, borrowing against the assets of the portfolio. Citron's strategy fell apart when interest rates began to rise and a substantial pool participant requested a return of its capital and interest. Within two months, one of the wealthiest local governments in the United States filed for bankruptcy, primarily to keep pool participants from draining the fund and thereby worsening the problem. The bankruptcy disrupted the national municipal bond market, cost local governments around the United States hundreds of millions of dollars in higher interest costs, and has spawned widespread retraining for municipal finance officers and the revision or creation of hundreds of new municipal investment guidelines and policies. The sudden evaporation of public wealth forced drastic cuts of social services and investment all over the country. Merrill Lynch had a two-decade relationship with Orange county. While it claimed that it warned Citron many times regarding the dangers of leverage (Merrill continues to defend the prudence of using derivatives and reverse repos to this day), it never informed the Board of Supervisors of its alleged concerns. Nor did Merrill's alleged concerns deter it from underwriting an additional $600 million bond issue for the county with all of the questionable practices fully in effect. The county sued Merrill Lynch for $2 billion for its contribution to the bankruptcy. In his letter to Judge J Stephen Czuleger requesting leniency (printed in the Orange County Register, November 19, 1996), Citron states that he knew nothing about derivatives until Michael Stamenson and Charles Clough of Merrill Lynch told him that the instruments could earn pool participants a safe return with higher yield. If rich and sophisticated Orange county of California could be misled by Merrill, what chance would HIPCs have? Public entrepreneurship is a management approach developed by the reinventing-government movement, part of the decades-long rise of neo-liberal market fundamentalism. Reinvention is a response to more than two decades of conservative attacks on the efficacy of government. The Proposition 13 property-tax revolt in California in the early 1970s started a relentless public, media-fueled campaign for government to do more with less. The administrations of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher escalated those demands for smaller, cheaper government to the international level and forced many public officials around the world to search desperately for a way out of the resultant fiscal crisis they faced. For many, the answer was simply wholesale privatization of state monopolies, public utilities and services. For others, it was a time of giddy receptivity to the promise of speculative manipulation disguised as creative management innovation. The proposals for the privatization of social security and the liberalization on speculative investing of private and public pension funds were part of this development. Reinvention attempted to provide risky strategies for improving public management in its time of fiscal crisis, including a recommendation that managers act entrepreneurially, taking risks that frequently ended in systemic disaster. The transformation of traditional bureaucracy into agile, anticipatory, problem-solving entities is what reinventionists call "entrepreneurial government". French economist Jean Baptiste Say (1767-1832) developed the concept of entrepreneurship in the early 19th century as the shifting of resources out of an area of lower and into an area of higher productivity and greater yield. Say was unconcerned about whether higher yield represents greater social good. Nor was he concerned with the macro effect of the externalized cost of higher yield. Nor did he emphasize the high risk and failure rate entrepreneurs face. Accordingly, the entrepreneurial public manager strives to use resources in new ways to increase efficiency and effectiveness, taking risks that drastically increase the prospect of failed government. Instead of regulating the market, government began participating in speculation in the market, leading to disastrous results. Many governments in emerging economies, including those of Hong Kong and Singapore, continue to practice entrepreneurial government, most visibly with investment policies concerning their foreign exchange reserves. Hong Kong's Cyberport and the Disneyland project are potential examples of government entrepreneurship gone wrong. Also, public and private pension funds managed by professionals wielding disproportionate market power in effect dilute market discipline. The deregulated market is no longer driven by millions of individual investors each making independent decisions based on self-interest, but by a handful of powerful fund managers who lead and manipulate the market to gain trading advantages through daily volatility they engineer. Reinvention argues that entrepreneurs are not risk-takers, but opportunity-seekers. They fondly embrace the characterization of a successful entrepreneur as one who defines risk and then confines it, pinpoints opportunity and then exploits it. They ignore the natural odds of thousands of failures for every successful example in entrepreneurship. Any organization can be structured to encourage or deter entrepreneurial behavior, and government organizations have no business trying to profit from systemic instability it must create in order to succeed. Yet public administration practitioners have jumped on the reinvention bandwagon with irrational exuberance. Bill Clinton and Al Gore campaigned on reinvention in 1992 and 1996. Former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani prided himself as a reinvention mayor. In early 1993, president Clinton gave vice president Gore the assignment of applying its concepts to the federal government. Many government leaders around the world, ever so eager for US ideological approval, were affected by this dubious US trend and promptly pushed their countries into financial crisis. The purpose of Chapter 9 of the US Bankruptcy Code is to provide a financially distressed reinvented municipality protection from its creditors while it develops and negotiates a plan for adjusting its debts. Reorganization of the debts of a municipality is typically accomplished either by extending debt maturities, reducing the near-term payment of principal or interest, or refinancing the debt by obtaining a new loan backed by new taxes and budgetary austerity. Although similar to other chapters in some respects, Chapter 9 is significantly different in that there is no provision in the law for liquidation of the assets of the municipality and distribution of the proceeds to creditors. Such a liquidation or dissolution would undoubtedly violate the Tenth Amendment to the US constitution and the reservation to the states of sovereignty over their internal affairs. Thus Chapter 9 is more applicable to HIPC sovereign debt restructuring, yet neo-liberals seem to prefer Chapter 11, which could lead to outright foreign control over the internal political affairs and economic policies of the debtor nation. Chapter 9 acknowledges the fundamental importance of enabling local governments to continue to provide essential services to residents without interruption or harassment from its creditors. Accordingly, a central feature of this chapter is that only the debtor can file for bankruptcy. No involuntary bankruptcy petition from creditors can be entertained under Chapter 9. Further protection is provided to the municipalities by forbidding courts and judges from exercising any influence on the political or governmental powers of the municipality (since it is accountable to the electors), or on any of its property or revenues or enjoyment of any of its income-producing assets. The process is also transparent and democratic in permitting interested parties such as municipal employees and their unions a role in a negotiated resolution of the problem. These protections are not available to HIPC debt resolution in IMF proposals. Before 1970, 90 percent of international transactions were by trade, and only 10 percent by capital flows. Today, despite a vast increase in global trade, that ratio has been reversed, with 90 percent of transactions by financial flows not directly related to trade in goods and services. Most of these flows take the form of highly volatile stocks and bonds trades, mergers and acquisition transactions, foreign direct investment and short-term loans, made incalculably complex and opaque by the use of structured finance (derivatives). Exchange-rate regimes, either pegged and floating, in unregulated global financial markets are the center of the problem. Until recently, the IMF has championed many pegged regimes as a way to ensure currency stability, albeit at a cost of independent monetary policy. Pegged exchange rates have led to financial crises, as in Asia and Russia in 1997-98, Brazil at the end of 1998, Turkey and Argentina in 2001 and Brazil again in 2002. These were all situations where it was clear that the fixed exchange rate could not hold, yet the international banks lent foreign-currency loans with IMF blessing, even to sustain already collapsing currencies. These foreign-currency loans led to predictable financial crises, by forcing countries to drain their foreign-exchange reserves. A profitable carry trade opportunity presents itself wherever exchange rates are fixed and interest-rate differentials emerge between two currencies. Then it is possible to borrow in the low-interest-rate currency and lend profitably in the high-interest-rate currency with no risk other than that of a failure in the fixed exchange rate. It is a profit that is subsidized by the high-interest-rate currency's central bank. Yet when large numbers of market participants catch on to the game, the fixed exchange rate cannot hold. When a central bank defends a fixed exchange rate under these conditions, it is in essence giving money free to all comers. And the money given away is in the form of foreign currency that the central bank cannot print. The British Treasury gave George Soros a windfall speculative profit of $2 billion in a matter of days in 1992 by trying to defend the over-valued British pound. Six years later, in 1998, Soros lost $2 billion of his investors' money when Russia defaulted on its sovereign debt. The Russian default also brought down LTCM, the world's largest and most profitable hedge fund up to its sudden collapse. Fixed exchange rates allow all governments to borrow from any bank or in capital/debt markets anywhere in the world where money is cheapest, with the full credit backing of their central banks. With this new competition for funds, international financial markets can force each nation to get their monetary and fiscal houses in order according to international standards set by the Group of Seven (G7) if they want to receive foreign loans with the lowest interest rates. These interlinked capital/debt markets penalize any nation with budget deficits or that permits hints of inflation by simply selling off its currency, robbing it of its sovereign authority to exercise monetary and fiscal policies in its national interest, for example, providing government credit to fight unemployment and support national industrial policy. Domestic development is sacrificed to support neo-liberal globalization, a process that allows unregulated markets to reduce poor nations to permanent indentured-servant status. On April 18, Senators Joseph Biden and Rick Santorum and Congressmen Chris Smith and John LaFalce introduced companion bills in the House of Representatives and the Senate called the "Debt Relief Enhancement Act of 2002", S 2210 and HR 4524. These bills seek to amend the existing HIPC debt initiative of the IMF and World Bank with more generous terms, relieving qualified countries from having to pay more than 5 percent of its budget on debt service annually (10 percent if the country has no health crisis) from the level of over 60 percent in many countries. This would nearly double current debt relief by cutting an additional $1 billion in debt service payments. HIPCs alone are making payments on an estimated debt of more than $220 billion at exorbitant interest rates. When other very low-income countries such as Nigeria, Bangladesh, Haiti, Peru, and the Philippines are included, the total is more than $350 billion. The Senate version of the bill would require that HIPC debt relief not be conditioned on certain policy measures often associated with "structural adjustment programs" including user fees on health care and education, the forced privatization of water, policies that degrade the environment or weaken labor standards. While this bill is a step in the right direction, it is merely a drop in the bucket. Bank of International Settlement (BIS) regulations and the way that financial market liberalization has been expedited have exposed vulnerable countries to massive amounts of short-term foreign debt. IMF intervention, in situations where the panic is just starting, has often inflamed the panic or exacerbated it rather than calmed it. In Indonesia, the IMF forced the closure of 16 commercial banks on November 1, 1997. The absence of deposit insurance set off a banking panic that set the country on political fire. IMF bailout loans not only did not prevent capital outflow, such loan often made it possible for capital to flee safely. Even in the Mexican bailout, where the US Treasury put in the most money, it did not stop the panic through a return of so-called "confidence", which all monetarists talk about though few can identify what it is. The bailout money merely funded the outflow of previously trapped short-term capital. The bailouts - $57 billion for South Korea, $41 billion for Brazil, $22 billion in the July 1998 program for Russia, the Mexican bailout - all went to finance the immediate outflow of financial capital. The new IMF $30 billion Brazilian bailout is no different. The money all went directly to the international creditors while imposing austerity on the local economies. The conventional syndicated loan takes shape in stages. The first stage is where the borrower issues a mandate letter authorizing a lead bank to arrange the loan on its behalf. In this role, the lead bank advises and negotiates with the borrower to establish the terms of the facility and then provides a term sheet to selected institutions with which it wishes to share the loan. It will act in ensuring that the borrower compiles an information memorandum about its financial circumstances and relays this information to interested syndicate members. These memoranda are normally based on the forward-looking information provided by the borrower and are usually subject to disclaimers. The position of the lead bank in this situation, in negotiating the terms of the loan agreement with other lenders, is that of an agent acting for the borrowers. In a syndicated loan, a number of lenders each agree to contribute a proportion of the loan through a single agreement. In a structural sense, there will normally be a pool of lenders (of which the lead manager is one), an agent for the loan, and inevitably a separate security agent who holds the security. This security agent will in almost all cases be a subsidiary of the lead bank. In a participation, one lead bank will agree to take all of the direct loan at risk and lend the full debt amount. The lead bank will (often before drawdown but not always) seek participants to share either the risk or the funding. A participating financial institution will either take a funding or a non-funding liability. Where a participant is taking a funding liability it will be required to make advances to the lead bank matching an agreed proportion of the debt. It is not uncommon for participants to take a risk-only position, that is, that they will provide a contractual promise, letter of credit or bank guarantee to the lead lending bank. Funds are then payable to the debt provider upon default. Participation can either be disclosed or undisclosed. Certain lenders take positions in undisclosed participation. There are a number of retail banks that, having moved to securitized products, now find that they have an appetite for use of their capital but not having retained teams with the required corporate management for syndicated loans. Time has shown this to be often an unwise decision both for the individual bank and for the system. On September 30, 1996, Congress passed and the president signed into law a new statute, PL 104-208, that definitively establishes the standards for lender liability under the Superfund law, ie, the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). One wonders why the IMF does not look to this legislation to extend lender liability to HIPC debt issues. Many of these concepts and ideas provided the impetus for discussions and negotiations on RSD during the 1970s in the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and at the Conference on International Economic Cooperation in Paris (1975-76). UNCTAD IV in 1976 provided the basis for decisions leading to the adoption of the first multilaterally agreed framework for the reorganization of official debt (Trade and Development Board resolution 222(XXI) of September 1980). This consensus resolution provides that international action should be expeditious and timely; enhance the development prospects of the country bearing in mind its agreed priorities and internationally agreed objectives; aim at restoring debtor countries' capacity to service its debt in both short term and long term and protect the interests of creditors and debtors equitably. The "Operational Framework" accompanying the resolution establishes a number of guiding principles for the application of "common features" for debt reorganization. These include the principle that debt relief can be initiated only at the discretion of the debtor; and the recognition that debt problem may "vary from acute balance-of-payments difficulties requiring immediate action to longer-term situations relating to structural, financial and transfer of resources problem requiring appropriate longer-term measures". Existence of externalities such as, for example, global consequences of unsustainable exploitation of natural resources to fund debt repayments or spillover/contagion effects on the international financial system of sovereign debt crises have been an important contributory factor in extending the search for solutions to debt problems beyond a particular sovereign's servicing difficulties. Growing concern in the creditor community about the long-term viability of existing ad hoc and voluntary arrangements is perhaps the main reason for the IMF supporting the creation of independent machinery endowed with judicial powers to impose solutions on debtors and creditors alike. New legal strategies by individual creditors now pose serious threats to voluntary debt-restructuring exercises. By threatening interruption to the scheduled payments under restructuring plans, holdouts (as in the recent cases of some of Congo's and Peru's creditors) can nullify agreed arrangements and succeed in extracting full payments on its debts. The present rules of engagement would therefore give the IMF a prominent role, by virtue of its earlier involvement and claims as a preferred creditor. The IMF also would assume for itself the role of analyzing the sustainability of debt, and be the likely lender of last resort in the standstill phase and during the post-restructuring period. Although the IMF/Krueger plan formally eschews a role for the IMF in the setting up of the mechanism (eg in the establishment of legal structures for debt reorganization), in the decision on initiating RSD, on whether or not to invoke and sanction a standstill (including imposing capital controls and a moratorium on debt service payments) and indeed in the design of a restructuring plan, it will in practice continue to have a decisive say at virtually all stages of the exercise. The IMF now concedes that temporary controls may be necessary if a sovereign default threatens capital flight, undermining the country's ability to return to generalized debt servicing. But the advantages of controls have to be weighed against the risk that they might broaden a sovereign debt crisis to potentially solvent private firms. In any event, IMF insists that controls should be accompanied by policies that would allow them to be lifted as soon as possible. Countries should not be encouraged to leave them in place longer than they are needed. Emerging markets have not performed well in recent years. Investment flows going through these markets have declined sharply; net private capital flows dropped from an average of $154 billion per year from 1992 through 1997 to $50 billion per year from 1998 through 2000. Most sovereign foreign debts are unsustainable and restructuring often only postpones or exacerbates the problem. Ideally sovereign foreign debt should not be allowed to exist. The neo-liberal aim of reforming the sovereign debt restructuring process is to maintain the incentives of sovereign governments to pay their debts in full and on time. Those incentives, primarily the benefit of continued access to foreign capital at market interest rates, may not be in a country's national interest. Proposals to have sovereign borrowers and their creditors put a package of new clauses into their debt contracts amounts to proposals of prenuptial agreements in marriages between parties of uneven wealth, usually to the disadvantage of the poorer party. Such clauses represent a decentralized, market-oriented approach to reform that deepens the root causes for the needs of reform. These proposals for reform of the sovereign debt restructuring process should be exposed as an integral part of a broader strategy toward emerging markets to keep poor countries permanently chained to the tyranny of foreign debt and condemn them to the slavery of export to service such debt. Foreign debt in the existing international financial architecture is in essence highway robbery of the poor countries by the rich in the form of predatory lending. Collective sovereign foreign debt default in a massive debtor revolt is the only rational solution, and lender liability action against foreign lenders is the only way out for the world's indebted poor. A class-action suit claiming lender liability should be instituted at the World Court on behalf of the world's poor. Even if a judgment against the transnational banks is uncollectable, such a judgment will have value in future debt negotiations. Transnational banks will face regulatory and licensing problems in debtor jurisdictions with an unresolved judgment around their necks. It is time that HIPCs exercised some debtor power. Remember, financial power under finance capitalism is not a function of how much you own, but how much you owe. Henry C K Liu is chairman of the New York-based Liu Investment Group. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 07:40:56 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:40:56 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vHq3-0008Cd-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:40:55 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vHph-0005Hz-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:40:33 -0600 Received: from cmailm3.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.193.19]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vHnJ-0005FS-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 07:38:06 -0600 Received: from [195.92.168.141] (helo=tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk) by cmailm3.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vHnI-0001Uv-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:38:04 +0100 Received: from modem-2422.tiger.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.136.217.118] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vHnG-00040Z-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:38:03 +0100 From: "Mark Jones" To: "a-list" Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Importance: Normal Subject: [A-List] Asia Times: Middle East Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:37:14 +0100 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 14:37:14 +0100 Bush shoots his Weapon of Mass Democracy By Jim Lobe WASHINGTON - The normally cool - if not coldly analytical - Anthony Cordesman was uncharacteristically heated as he warmed to his subject. "It may be excusable as a fantasy of some Israelis reacting to the trauma of the second Intifada. As American policy, however, it crosses the line between neo-conservative and neo-crazy." Cordesman, a Mideast specialist at the conservative Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, was speaking about the latest rationale offered with increasing insistence by forces both within the administration of President George W Bush and outside it for invading Iraq: the notion that ousting President Saddam Hussein would result in a flourishing of democracy, not just in Iraq, but through the entire Middle East. Hailed by some commentators as the new "Wilsonian" thrust of Bush's foreign policy, the idea has been gradually embraced by the administration itself. Just last week, Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, told the Financial Times that the US military should be seen as "liberators" when it moves on Iraq, and that the administration was devoted to "democratization, or the march of freedom in the Muslim world". Vice President Dick Cheney has said much the same thing in recent weeks. The idea is meant above all to appeal to the more idealistic instincts of the US public. In that respect, it counter-balances the arguably baser reasons that have been more frequently invoked by leaders to justify waging war on a foreign country and ousting its leader: that Saddam has the means, and the intent, to launch a devastating nuclear, biological or chemical attack on the United States at any moment, or, in a more sinister vein, that he is the secret puppeteer behind Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda. The Wilsonian rationale, which takes its name from former president Woodrow Wilson - ironically a champion of international law whose aim in World War I was to "make the world safe for democracy" - has been championed almost since last year's September 11 terrorist attacks by a small group of neo-conservatives with close ties to the right-wing Likud Party in Israel. The group, which is concentrated at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a major think tank whose ranks include, among others, Cheney's wife Lynne and the chairman of Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld's Defense Policy Board, Richard Perle, has long argued for extending the war on terrorism far beyond Afghanistan and al-Qaeda to Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestine Authority of Yasser Arafat and even Washington's long-time ally, Saudi Arabia. "What [the Bush administration] has in mind is a broad vision," says Meyrav Wurmser, who directs Mideast policy at the Hudson Institute but works closely with Perle, "which really involves changing the character of the Middle East." If Saddam can be overthrown in an overwhelming show of force, the argument goes, then all of the autocracies that have dominated the Arab world, resisting democratic reform and peace with Israel, will themselves totter and collapse to popular pressures, creating a domino effect from Iran in the east, clear across North Africa as far as Libya. The idea has been strongly embraced by Israel's Likud. In testimony before Congress two weeks ago, for example, former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu waxed eloquent for hours before a mostly fawning group of lawmakers. "So I think that the choice of going after Iraq is like removing a brick that holds a lot of other bricks and might cause this structure to crumble," he said, focusing particularly on Iran, which he said was ready for a new revolution. The former prime minister, a frequent guest at AEI, even cited the great German philosopher Immanuel Kant to support his view that an across-the-board democratization of the region was the only way to guarantee peace between Israel and its neighbors. Netanyahu's focus on Iran as the next target for the war on terror echoed the views of Perle's AEI colleague Michael Ledeen, once an anti-terrorism adviser to the administration of former president Ronald Reagan, who helped broker the original arms-for-weapons deal that underpinned what became the Iran-Contra affair. Since the Teheran government was rocked by spontaneous protests one year ago, Ledeen has repeatedly written that Iran is ripe for a pro-US revolution, even suggesting in newspaper articles this month that Iran might even precede Iraq as a target, presumably for covert action. "With a triumph in Iran, the democratic revolution would quickly gain allies in Syria and Iraq and transform our war against Saddam Hussein from a primarily military operation to a war of national liberation against a hated regime. This war cannot be limited to national theaters," cautioned Ledeen, who is also a founder and board member of another neo-conservative group, the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs. "We face a regional challenge and must respond accordingly. We are the one truly revolutionary country on earth, which is both the reason for which we were attacked in the first place and the reason we will successfully transform the lives of millions of people throughout the Middle East." What makes this ambition and line of reasoning so interesting is not only its origin among outspoken "Likudniks" who have long opposed not only the Oslo accords but the whole "land for peace" formula that has formed the basis of US Mideast policy since 1967. It is also the contrast between the hopes expressed on behalf of the Arabs and Muslims who are supposed to benefit from this policy and the contempt in which the same beneficiaries are held by their self-described champions. Another AEI scholar, former CIA officer Reuel Marc Gerecht, who takes the same line on democratization, has repeatedly argued that power and force are the only language understood in the Muslim world. Months ago, for example, as Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon moved to re-occupy West Bank towns and cities, Gerecht exulted, "The tougher Sharon becomes, the stronger our image will be in the Middle East." Netanyahu echoed that view before Congress: the political culture in the region's societies "is not one of respecting force; it is worshipping force, and the determination, resolution of the United States in applying it". This, indeed, may be the other side of the democratization coin, according to a number of observers. There is "something hypocritical about the belief in democratization when it is expounded by people who also hold the belief in the clash of civilizations, who were insisting a few months ago that there are regions of the world, particularly the Islamic regions, in which culture makes freedom impossible", noted the normally neo-conservative New Republic recently. As for Cordesman and other Mideast experts, both the people who now champion democratization as the rationale for war against Iraq and the vehemence with which they continue to attack Arab and Islamic societies "threaten to turn 'democratization' into a four-letter word". (Inter Press Service) From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 08:13:30 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 08:13:30 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vILa-0008S4-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 08:13:30 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vILS-0005Sq-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 08:13:22 -0600 Received: from smtp6.mindspring.com ([207.69.200.110]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vIJq-0005Se-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 08:11:42 -0600 Received: from user-2ive67r.dialup.mindspring.com ([165.247.24.251] helo=mindspring.com) by smtp6.mindspring.com with esmtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 17vIJn-0001ks-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 10:11:39 -0400 Message-ID: <3D95B892.4C320374@mindspring.com> From: "Henry C.K. Liu" X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (WinNT; U) X-Accept-Language: en,zh,zh-CN,zh-TW MIME-Version: 1.0 To: "pkt@csf.colorado.edu" , "gang8@yahoogroups.com" , The New Forum , "a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu" Content-Type: text/plain; charset=big5 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Subject: [A-List] Restructuring Sovereign Debt Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 10:11:30 -0400 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 10:11:30 -0400 Amid massive protest during the annual meeting of the IMF/World Bank in Washington D.C. this week, the article attached below on Restructuring Sovereign Debt may be of interest. Henry C.K. Liu http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/DI28Dj01.html From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 09:56:13 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 09:56:13 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vJwr-0000jb-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 09:56:05 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vJwE-0006C8-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 09:55:26 -0600 Received: from f51.law3.hotmail.com ([209.185.241.51] helo=hotmail.com) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vJvh-0006Bc-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 09:54:53 -0600 Received: from mail pickup service by hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 08:54:22 -0700 Received: from 208.187.165.93 by lw3fd.law3.hotmail.msn.com with HTTP; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 15:54:22 GMT X-Originating-IP: [208.187.165.93] From: "Seth Sandronsky" To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu, pen-l@galaxy.csuchico.edu Bcc: Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed Message-ID: X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Sep 2002 15:54:22.0992 (UTC) FILETIME=[50542900:01C26707] Subject: [A-List] Subject: 350,000 March in London against attack on Iraq Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 15:54:22 +0000 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 15:54:22 +0000 Sept. 28, 2002 9 a.m. PST All, I just received this report on a big protest in London against a U.S. assault on Iraq. Seth Sandronsky Historic Anti-War March in London On-the-spot report by Bob Wing *Bob Wing is the editor of War Times. He is currently in London in transit to Palestine. London, Sept. 28 Tony Blair may be President Bush's only European ally in his drive for war on Iraq. But the people of the UK today forcibly demonstrated their opposition to forcible regime change. This afternoon, at least 350,000 people from all over the United Kingdom descended upon the corridors of power for a massive and peaceful "Don't Attack Iraq/Freedom for Palestine" march and rally. As I file this report at 4 p.m., less than half the march, which commenced at 12:30 p.m., has arrived at the Hyde Park Rally. The action was the largest of its kind in the UK in 30 years. It was dramatic, and so large that it was truly impossible to guage its size. Certainly it numbered in the hundreds of thousands of people of every ethnicity, age and class. Recent polls show that 70 percent opposed Britain joining a U.S.-led military action. "There is not just opposition to the prospect of war--there is boiling anger," asserts Andrew Murray, chair of the Stop the War Coalition. The turnout was a shot across the bow of Prime Minister Tony Blair and a preview of next weeks Labor Party Conference. The demonstration was jointly sponsored by the Stop the War Coalition and the Muslim Association of Britain. It was endorsed by 12 national trade unions, numerous Muslim and anti-racist organizations, Members of Parliament and the Mayor of London. Organizers have called for another massive "Don't Attack Iraq Day" for Oct. 31. "Opposition to this war in this country is the most incredible coalition I have ever seen," says Jeremy Corbyn, a Labor MP. "Since Sept. 11, Islamophobia has spread across the UK and activated the Muslim and South Asian populations," said Asad Rehman, national organizer for the Stop the War Coalition and chairman of the Newham Monitoring Project. South Asians are the largest group of color in the UK, numbering about 15 percent in London alone. "I didn't go on earlier demonstrations but I am now because the countdown to war has started and I find it terrifying," explained march Jemma Redgrave. Robert "3-D" Del Naja of the pop group Massive Attack says "I am marching because I feel very disheartened about our government and the way it reacts to America and American foreign policy." Meanwhile, in Parliament, Labor Party members are staging a revolt against Blair's Iraq policy. They warn that the 56-strong rebellion of this week is just a warm up. Blair also faces powerful opposition at next week's national Labor Party conference. Charles Kennedy, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, the third largest in the UK, declared his opposition to what he called the U.S.'s "imperialist" policy. -- You are currently subscribed to this list as: ssandron@hotmail.com To unsubscribe, please click here: http://www.mailermailer.com/x?u=6110830,$1$60n4y$VeKBfiz5w5q7ULfqMN2IG0 If this message was forwarded to you and you would like to subscribe, please click here: http://www.mailermailer.com/x?oid=05376w Email list management powered by http://MailerMailer.com _________________________________________________________________ Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 10:23:21 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 10:23:21 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vKMj-0000pW-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 10:22:49 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vKMI-0006Iq-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 10:22:22 -0600 Received: from maynard.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.243]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vKL6-0006IO-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 10:21:08 -0600 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by maynard.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 17vKL6-0002Ka-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:21:08 -0400 Message-ID: <073001c26709$4a839860$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: References: Subject: Re: [A-List] Subject: 350,000 March in London against attack on Iraq MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:08:28 -0400 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:08:28 -0400 Let's hope complacent American "progressives" can wake up and participate in the anti-war demo in DC, October 26th. A similar showing would be helpful. Also, US voters can go to Michael Moore's web site, where we are signing a petition saying, "We are registered to vote, we will show up at the polls, and we will abstain in any race where a Democrat supports the war." http://www.michaelmoore.com/ Sorry if this qualifies as cross-posting. "People say, how can I help in this war on terror? How can I fight evil? You can do so by mentoring a child, by going into a shut-in's house and say I love you." -George W. Bush, September 19, 2002 From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 10:52:39 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 10:52:39 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vKpZ-0000yH-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 10:52:37 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vKpO-0006UE-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 10:52:26 -0600 Received: from f3.law3.hotmail.com ([209.185.241.3] helo=hotmail.com) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vKo2-0006U2-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 10:51:02 -0600 Received: from mail pickup service by hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 09:50:32 -0700 Received: from 208.187.165.93 by lw3fd.law3.hotmail.msn.com with HTTP; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 16:50:31 GMT X-Originating-IP: [208.187.165.93] From: "Seth Sandronsky" To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Bcc: Subject: [A-List] Subject: 350,000 March in London against attack on Iraq Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed Message-ID: X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Sep 2002 16:50:32.0194 (UTC) FILETIME=[28879620:01C2670F] Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 16:50:31 +0000 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 16:50:31 +0000 Sept. 28, 2002 There's an anti-war protest today in downtown San Francisco. More below on upcoming peace protests in Sacrament and Davis, CA. Seth From: "Sac-Yolo Peace Action" To: sypeaceact@jps.net Subject: Peace Action Alert Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 17:50:51 -0700 IMPORTANT! URGENT! Congress will probably vote on the war resolution the week of September 30, so it is important to take action this week: Call Rep. Matsui 916 498-5600, and tell him to oppose the war! Other Representatives and Senators Boxer and Feinstein: Call TOLL FREE - 1-800-839-5276. Tell them - No War On Iraq! (Call 6 AM to 2 PM our time, weekdays.) SACRAMENTO PEACE EVENTS THIS WEEK Sat. Sept 28, 11:30am-1:30pm, Vigil at Fulton and Marconi Tuesday; October 1, 2002 9am-5:30pm -- Join Veterans for Peace at Rep. Matsui's office, 501 I Street (5th & I), downtown Sacramento. We will be vigiling in front of the building and ask groups and individuals to come and deliver messages to Matsui's office to tell him to publicly oppose the war on Iraq AND to support ending the sanctions and current bombing. Other Congressional leaders have come out against the war, but Matsui has yet to take a position. Please come to the press conferences which will be held at 11am and 5pm. Info: 916 448-7157. Tuesday, Oct. 1, 4-6pm, 16th and J, regular Tuesday vigil (we want to be both at 16th & J AND at 5th & I, so please come to one of these!) Wednesday, October 2, Rush Hour vigils downtown Sacramento 7:30am - 8:30am 5th & J AND 16th & W 4:30pm - 5:30pm 5th & I AND 3rd and P Thursday, Oct. 3, Gloria LaRiva on the Cuban Five, 7 PM, Coloma Comm Center,. Ph 455-1396. Saturday, Oct 5, 9:30am - 4pm Teach-in on Palestine and its struggle for Peace & Justice, Newman Center, 5900 Newman Court (off Carlson Dr., north of CSUS) Saturday, Oct 5th, 11:30am-1:30pm, Vigil in front of Arden Mall, Arden at Heritage. DAVIS VIGILING AND TABLING: Every Saturday, vigil at 11A to noon, G St Plaza, 2d and 3d streets; tabling at Farmer's Market. Contact by email: CTMP@aol.com In event of a new war on Iraq, please come at 4PM to 16th and J streets, Sacramento. For more details 916 448-7157; sypeaceact@jps.net; www.sacpeace.org ------------------------------------- Sacramento-Yolo Peace Action 909 12th St., # 118 Sacramento, CA 95814 (916) 448-7157 phone (916) 448-7159 fax sypeaceact@jps.net www.sacpeace.org -------------------------------------- [A-List] Subject: 350,000 March in London against attack on Iraq bon moun a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 10:22:01 2002 Let's hope complacent American "progressives" can wake up and participate in the anti-war demo in DC, October 26th. A similar showing would be helpful. Also, US voters can go to Michael Moore's web site, where we are signing a petition saying, "We are registered to vote, we will show up at the polls, and we will abstain in any race where a Democrat supports the war." http://www.michaelmoore.com/ Sorry if this qualifies as cross-posting. "People say, how can I help in this war on terror? How can I fight evil? You can do so by mentoring a child, by going into a shut-in's house and say I love you." -George W. Bush, September 19, 2002 Try a free six-month subscription to Because People Matter, or send $15 for a one-year subscription to: BPM, 403 21st Street, Sacramento, CA 95814. (Sorry, we don't yet have a presence on the web.) _________________________________________________________________ Join the world’s largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. http://www.hotmail.com From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 11:02:32 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:02:32 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vKz9-00010p-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:02:31 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vKyz-0006bL-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:02:21 -0600 Received: from cmailg6.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.195.176]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vKxq-0006bC-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:01:10 -0600 Received: from [195.92.168.141] (helo=tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk) by cmailg6.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vKxp-0007Xo-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 18:01:09 +0100 Received: from modem-2801.zebra.dialup.pol.co.uk ([81.76.154.241] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vKxn-0006aD-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 18:01:08 +0100 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] Subject: 350,000 March in London against attack on Iraq Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Importance: Normal In-Reply-To: Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 18:00:24 +0100 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 18:00:24 +0100 The BBC at 15:38: Tens of thousands of people are taking part in a protest against military action in Iraq which organisers say is one of Europe's biggest anti-war rallies. Organisers say there is growing opposition to Prime Minister Tony Blair's stance on Iraq. We can't consider murdering another 100,000 Iraqis simply to pursue America's interest in oil Film director Ken Loach They say 400,000 people will have joined in the march from the Embankment past Parliament and up Whitehall to a rally in Hyde Park by the end of Saturday. Police say they have so far counted more than 150,000 people and there have been two arrests for minor public order offences. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2285861.stm CNN at 14:29: LONDON, England -- Anti-war demonstrators are marching through London calling on Britain to abandon military plans for Iraq. Organisers had said it would be one of the largest anti-war protests ever to be held in Europe but early police estimates indicated up to 40,000 had turned up rather than the 100,000 hoped for. U.S. President George W. Bush, supported by UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, is leading the call for a new U.N. Security Council resolution that would threaten military action against Iraq unless it complies with demands on re-admitting weapons inspectors. They want President Saddam Hussein to let in the inspectors so they can locate and destroy any weapons of mass destruction accumulated since 1998 inspectors were last in the country. Earlier this week Blair presented a dossier of evidence he says shows Iraq is a threat to the international community. http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/europe/09/28/london.march/index.html From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 11:20:34 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:20:34 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vLGc-00015S-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:20:34 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vLGQ-0006g9-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:20:22 -0600 Received: from maynard.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.243]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vLFY-0006fs-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:19:28 -0600 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by maynard.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 17vLFX-0006BR-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 13:19:27 -0400 Message-ID: <074e01c26711$6f2e3780$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: References: Subject: Re: [A-List] Subject: 350,000 March in London against attack on Iraq MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 13:06:46 -0400 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 13:06:46 -0400 >From substantial first hand experience, I can say without reservation that the best way to estimate the size of any progressive public actions is to take the NYT or CNN or any other US press organ's numbers and multiply them by 3-5. They are very hardheaded about this, even when people show them photographic evidence to the contrary. Whose press is it, after all? From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 11:51:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:51:33 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vLkb-0001LR-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:51:33 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vLkT-0006qe-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:51:25 -0600 Received: from shawidc-mo1.cg.shawcable.net ([24.71.223.10] helo=pd5mo2so.prod.shaw.ca) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vLk1-0006qV-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:50:58 -0600 Received: from pd3mr2so.prod.shaw.ca (pd3mr2so-ser.prod.shaw.ca [10.0.141.178]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with ESMTP id <0H3500IA3TK3AV@l-daemon> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:50:27 -0600 (MDT) Received: from pn2ml2so.prod.shaw.ca (pn2ml2so-qfe0.prod.shaw.ca [10.0.121.146]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with ESMTP id <0H3500ACCTK3Z6@l-daemon> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:50:27 -0600 (MDT) Received: from cr185582a (h24-83-31-41.vc.shawcable.net [24.83.31.41]) by l-daemon (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 HotFix 0.8 (built May 12 2002)) with SMTP id <0H3500DGRTK3YL@l-daemon> for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:50:27 -0600 (MDT) From: Macdonald Stainsby Subject: Re: [A-List] Restructuring Sovereign Debt To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu Message-id: <027401c26719$2110fd00$291f5318@vc.shawcable.net> MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4522.1200 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Content-type: text/plain; charset=big5 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-priority: Normal References: <3D95B892.4C320374@mindspring.com> Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:01:53 -0700 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:01:53 -0700 ----- Original Message ----- From: "Henry C.K. Liu" > Amid massive protest during the annual meeting of the IMF/World Bank in > Washington D.C. this week, 3-5000 people is not massive. Let's not talk like the Comintern about things we have lost. Right now, the "anti-globalisation" movement is in trouble, and we must face the problem so as to defeat it. Macdonald From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 12:13:32 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:13:32 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vM5s-0001Qw-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:13:32 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vM5j-00076S-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:13:23 -0600 Received: from cmailg1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.195.171]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vM57-00076F-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:12:45 -0600 Received: from [195.92.168.141] (helo=tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk) by cmailg1.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vM55-0002O4-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 19:12:43 +0100 Received: from modem-459.snake.dialup.pol.co.uk ([62.137.113.203] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vM55-000335-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 19:12:43 +0100 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] Subject: 350,000 March in London against attack on Iraq Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Importance: Normal In-Reply-To: <074e01c26711$6f2e3780$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 19:11:58 +0100 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 19:11:58 +0100 But it's pretty indicative of what's happening to the US 'free press' when CNN says 40k and the Beeb says 400k. Mark PS I was there. I have no idea at all how many people there were, but the parade took hours to pass. I stood in Whitehall and watched. > -----Original Message----- > From: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu > [mailto:a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu]On Behalf Of bon moun > Sent: Saturday, September 28, 2002 6:07 PM > To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu > Subject: Re: [A-List] Subject: 350,000 March in London against attack on > Iraq > > > From substantial first hand experience, I can say without reservation that > the best way to estimate the size of any progressive public actions is to > take the NYT or CNN or any other US press organ's numbers and > multiply them > by 3-5. They are very hardheaded about this, even when people show them > photographic evidence to the contrary. > > Whose press is it, after all? > > From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 13:22:42 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 13:22:42 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vNAo-0001iC-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 13:22:42 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vNAV-0007Q9-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 13:22:23 -0600 Received: from simla.colostate.edu ([129.82.103.72]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vN9h-0007Q0-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 13:21:33 -0600 Received: from holly.ColoState.EDU (holly.acns.colostate.edu [129.82.100.76]) by simla.ColoState.EDU (AIX4.3/8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id NAA103888 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 13:21:32 -0600 Received: from webmail.colostate.edu (csunts4.acns.colostate.edu [129.82.100.135]) by holly.ColoState.EDU (AIX4.3/8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id NAA287248 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 13:21:32 -0600 X-WebMail-UserID: sholden@holly.colostate.edu From: steve To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-EXP32-SerialNo: 00003291, 00003429, 00003578 Subject: RE: [A-List] Subject: 350,000 March in London against attack on Iraq Message-ID: <3D964B12@webmail.colostate.edu> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="ISO-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Mailer: WebMail (Hydra) SMTP v3.61 Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 13:21:32 -0600 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 13:21:32 -0600 On Saturday at 3:15 EST both CNN and BBC are in agreement: http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/europe/09/28/london.march/index.html <..> Police told CNN that it was estimated that 150,000 had taken part while the organisers said the attendance was double that. As the protesters held a rally in London's Hyde Park, thousands of flag-waving, whistle-blowing demonstrators took to the streets of Rome. Italy's far-left Communist Refoundation party, which organised the event, said more than 100,000 people joined the march. Police did not immediately give any estimates. <..> http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2285861.stm <..> Organisers said 400,000 people joined in the march from the Embankment to a rally in Hyde Park on Saturday. Police said they had counted more than 150,000 people and there had been two arrests for minor public order offences. <..> >===== Original Message From a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu ===== >But it's pretty indicative of what's happening to the US 'free press' when >CNN says 40k and the Beeb says 400k. > >Mark >PS I was there. I have no idea at all how many people there were, but the >parade took hours to pass. I stood in Whitehall and watched. > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu >> [mailto:a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu]On Behalf Of bon moun >> Sent: Saturday, September 28, 2002 6:07 PM >> To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu >> Subject: Re: [A-List] Subject: 350,000 March in London against attack on >> Iraq >> >> >> From substantial first hand experience, I can say without reservation that >> the best way to estimate the size of any progressive public actions is to >> take the NYT or CNN or any other US press organ's numbers and >> multiply them >> by 3-5. They are very hardheaded about this, even when people show them >> photographic evidence to the contrary. >> >> Whose press is it, after all? From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 19:04:31 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 19:04:31 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vSVb-00035c-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 19:04:31 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vSVT-0000sL-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 19:04:23 -0600 Received: from maynard.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.243]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vSUB-0000sC-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 19:03:03 -0600 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by maynard.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 17vSU4-0002C7-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 21:02:56 -0400 Message-ID: <076301c26752$26a4a9e0$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: References: <3D964B12@webmail.colostate.edu> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Subject: [A-List] Congress flooded with calls against war Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 20:49:54 -0400 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 20:49:54 -0400 http://www.democracynow.org/CongressCalls.htm Republican and Democratic Senate offices report "overwhelming" opposition from their constituents to war with Iraq. This comes as Congress prepares to pass a war resolution granting President Bush sweeping powers to invade Iraq. The national news radio show Democracy Now! conducted an informal survey on Thursday of 70 Republican and Democratic Senate offices. Of the 26 offices which responded to our inquires, 22 reported an overwhelming majority - in some cases up to 99 percent -- of constituents opposed war in Iraq; three said the response was split and just one office reported a majority called backing the war. Among the findings: Democrats * Wisconsin Sen. Herb Kohl: Aides say they are receiving 1,000-2,000 calls per week with the overwhelming number opposed to an attack on Iraq. * Washington Sen. Patty Murray: Over 5,000 letters and phone calls were received last week on Iraq, aides say. Only about 100 came from constituents who supported an attack. * California Sen. Dianne Feinstein: Staff in her San Francisco office reported about 200 calls a day with 99 percent of the callers opposing the war. * New Mexico Sen. Jeff Bingaman: The D.C. office has been receiving at least 1,300 calls a day with about 70 percent opposed to war. Republicans * North Carolina Sen.Jesse Helms: Staff declined to give figures but said the "majority is against" when it comes to calls on Iraq. * Nebraska Sen. Charles Hegal: According to aides, constituents favor diplomacy over war at a rate of 5 to 1. * Virginia Sen. John Warner: About 150 constituents a day are calling into the D.C. offices. "A very small minority supported military action," said one aide. "It's extraordinary that, as Senators work with the Bush Administration to draft a war resolution, their constituents are expressing overwhelming opposition an attack against Iraq," said Amy Goodman, the host of Democracy Now! "Unfortunately we are hearing very little about this in the media. These calls represent the silenced majority, not the silent majority." Democracy Now is a daily nationwide news show based in New York. It is broadcast on over 130 public radio and television stations around the country. For more information email mail@democracynow.org From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 19:53:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 19:53:33 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vTH3-0003JO-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 19:53:33 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vTGu-0001D6-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 19:53:24 -0600 Received: from mclean.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.57]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vTFh-00017i-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 19:52:10 -0600 Received: from user-2ivecil.dialup.mindspring.com ([165.247.50.85] helo=mindspring.com) by mclean.mail.mindspring.net with esmtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 17vTFh-00024Y-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 21:52:10 -0400 Message-ID: <3D965CB8.E7B263A8@mindspring.com> From: "Henry C.K. Liu" X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (WinNT; U) X-Accept-Language: en,zh,zh-CN,zh-TW MIME-Version: 1.0 To: pkt@csf.colorado.edu CC: gang8@yahoogroups.com, "a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu" , The New Forum References: <3D95B892.4C320374@mindspring.com> <000501c26706$eb4186c0$6f34fea9@GunnarTomasson> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=big5 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Subject: [A-List] Re: [gang8] Restructuring Sovereign Debt Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 21:51:58 -0400 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 21:51:58 -0400 Gunnar: Thank you for your comments. If creditors want to elevate the argument to a higher plane, it will lead to the issue of lender liability. Brazil, for example, aided by its international bankers, used its foreign loans to speculate on Korean government bonds, which forced Rubin to get the Fed to ease on US banks capital requirements to roll over Koean non-perfoming sovereign loans and reclassified them as performing longer term loans, to prevent contagion of Brazil from the Korean financial crisis in December 1997. Although greatly diluted, lender liability issues in Super fund cleanup has wide support in congress. A case can be made that preditary lending in the past 2 decades in the Third World has caused much economic and environmental damage and incidious poverty and social deterioration. Restoring Third World conditions to pre-debt period would require hundreds of billion of dollars which the banks must be made to should a significant share. The IMF is of course a creditor's instrument, which is alright, except that the IMF pretends to be an objective, neutral body. What is needed is a debtors' institution to represent debtor interst. Henry Gunnar Tomasson wrote: > Henry: Thanks for a very informative article. Briefly, re. the > following: Foreign debt in the existing international financial > architecture is in essence highway robbery of the poor countries by > the rich in the form of predatory lending. Collective sovereign > foreign debt default in a massive debtor revolt is the only rational > solution, and lender liability action against foreign lenders is the > only way out for the world's indebted poor. Comment: This mirrors > Keynes' remarks in Tract on Monetary Reform to the effect that debt > cancellation is the technically appropriate solution to unsustainable > levels of debt. But, Keynes added, the solution is unlikely ever to be > adopted in the real world where creditors, when faced with a > technically irrefutable argument, will move the debate to what they > consider a higher "moral" plane - namely, sanctity of contract etc. At > the IMF in 1976, I did a back-of-the-envelope study of the burgeoning > debt loads of major Third World and Eastern European Debtors and > concluded that "possible repayment difficulties" might undermine the > "medium-term" stability of post-Bretton Woods world monetary > arrangements. As it happens, my boss - who later joined the Institute > for International Finance in Washington - had lunch with Citibank's > Senior Vice President for International Operations within a day or two > after receiving my memorandum on the subject matter. On return, he > advised me, "Gunnar, you're all wet." All of which suggests that, with > the debate moving onto the plane of "morality", the question arises > why IMF resources should be used to shield financial market > participants from the consequences of their own mistakes - that of > making massive loans to sovereign borrowers who obviously were headed > for medium-term insolvency? Gunnar > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Henry C.K. Liu > To: pkt@csf.colorado.edu ; gang8@yahoogroups.com ; The New > Forum ; a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu > Sent: Saturday, September 28, 2002 10:11 AM > Subject: [gang8] Restructuring Sovereign Debt > Amid massive protest during the annual meeting of the > IMF/World Bank in > Washington D.C. this week, the article attached below on > Restructuring > Sovereign Debt may be of interest. > > Henry C.K. Liu > > http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/DI28Dj01.html > > > > Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ADVERTISEMENT > > The gang8 list is devoted to Creditary Economics. > To unsubscribe, email: gang8-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of > Service. > From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sat Sep 28 23:06:33 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 23:06:33 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vWHp-00042h-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 23:06:33 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vWHg-0002A9-00; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 23:06:24 -0600 Received: from nwkea-mail-1.sun.com ([192.18.42.13]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vWGH-00029x-00 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 23:04:57 -0600 Received: from hsoak01a.ebay.sun.com ([129.149.70.1]) by nwkea-mail-1.sun.com (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3) with ESMTP id WAA03754 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 22:04:18 -0700 (PDT) Received: from minna.forte.com (minna [129.149.74.18]) by hsoak01a.ebay.sun.com (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3/ENSMAIL,v2.2) with ESMTP id WAA19295 for ; Sat, 28 Sep 2002 22:04:17 -0700 (PDT) Message-Id: <4.3.2.7.1.20020928212628.00ba4e70@hsoak01a.ebay.sun.com> X-Sender: joannab@hsoak01a.ebay.sun.com X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 4.3.2 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu From: joanna bujes Subject: Re: [A-List] Re: [gang8] Restructuring Sovereign Debt In-Reply-To: <3D965CB8.E7B263A8@mindspring.com> References: <3D95B892.4C320374@mindspring.com> <000501c26706$eb4186c0$6f34fea9@GunnarTomasson> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 21:28:32 -0700 Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 21:28:32 -0700 At 09:51 PM 09/28/2002 -0400, you wrote: >All of which suggests that, with > > the debate moving onto the plane of "morality", the question arises > > why IMF resources should be used to shield financial market > > participants from the consequences of their own mistakes - that of > > making massive loans to sovereign borrowers who obviously were headed > > for medium-term insolvency? Gunnar Because, quite contrary to the myth that capitalists get to keep their profits because they "risk" capital, losses are to be socialized and profits privatized. That's the real magic formula of capitalism. That's the "morality" of the affair. Worked for the S & L crisis! Joanna From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sun Sep 29 03:31:31 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sun, 29 Sep 2002 03:31:31 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vaQF-00055d-00 for ; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 03:31:31 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vaQ8-0003Wp-00; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 03:31:24 -0600 Received: from smtp02.iprimus.net.au ([210.50.76.70]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vaPJ-0003Wg-00 for ; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 03:30:33 -0600 Received: from iprimus.com.au ([210.50.171.129]) by smtp02.iprimus.net.au with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.4617); Sun, 29 Sep 2002 19:30:22 +1000 Message-ID: <3D96C7F5.2549A168@iprimus.com.au> From: Rob Schaap X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 (Macintosh; U; PPC) X-Accept-Language: en MIME-Version: 1.0 To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu References: Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Sep 2002 09:30:23.0480 (UTC) FILETIME=[D61F5F80:01C2679A] Subject: [A-List] Global Economy: Oil dynamics Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sun, 29 Sep 2002 19:29:22 +1000 Date: Sun, 29 Sep 2002 19:29:22 +1000 http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020927-fri.html#anchor0 Sept 27, 2002 Global: A World with Two Swing Oil Producers? Eric Chaney (Paris) How Do Producers Rank in the Global Oil Market? Although Russia is now competing with Saudi Arabia for the first place as the world's biggest oil producer, the real market power of producers is linked to the size of their reserves, since oil is a non-renewable resource. Ranked according to the size of their "proven" reserves, Saudi Arabia wins this contest without any ambiguity, holding 25% of world reserves as they were reported at the end of 2000. For the sake of comparison, the Russian Federation held only 4.6% of all reserves on the same measure. Interestingly, Iraq comes in second, with 10.8% of world reserves. Of course, "proven reserves" is a soft concept, to say the least. Over the years, the search for new profitable oil fields (intense when oil prices are high, less so when prices are depressed) increases the size of "proven reserves," with one exception -- you guessed it, Iraq. As a result of more than ten years of embargo, oil field exploration was almost insignificant in Iraq. Although hard evidence is by definition impossible to show, many analysts think that Iraq's reserves are actually much bigger than what is suggested by the "proven reserves" statistics. It is fair to say that, even though Saudi Arabia probably remains the world champion, the gap with Iraq is not as wide as it looks. In other words, Iraq is potentially a challenger to Saudi Arabia as the biggest holder of easily workable oil reserves. Iraq Ranks Second in Both Reserves and Duration Another way to gauge the market power of producers is to take a long forward-looking view and see who will eventually win the battle for full monopoly, as, progressively, countries endowed with small reserves or pumping existing reserves at fast pace (as Russia is doing now), end up with no profitable oil left in their fields. "Profitable" is an important qualification: since there are substitutes for oil, at some stage, reserves will not be worth being extracted, as oil will prove more expensive than substitutes. Based on current levels of production, four countries stand out with more than 80 years of production: Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Once again, Iraq ranks second. Which Countries Can Afford Long-Term Strategies? However, reserves and their life expectancy are not the only parameters entering into the market power equation. For oil-dependent economies where per-capita income is mainly generated by oil production, long-term strategies are all the easier to implement where the population is small. In theory at least, once should assume that the time preference, or the discount rate, producer X would use to evaluate the present value of its future production is inversely proportional to its reserves per capita. Looking at oil wealth per capita shows that three small Gulf countries clearly stand out: Kuwait, the Emirates, and Qatar. Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Iraq are lagging behind, but are nevertheless richly endowed, compared with most oil producers. If these countries follow an optimal production path over time, they should be interested in producing less today in order to benefit from higher revenues at higher prices tomorrow, when their competitors will run out of ammunition. Doing so would give them more market power in so much as they would be able to increase or decrease production as prices rise or drop, without inflicting too much harm on their populations. Size Still Matters A low time preference is still not a sufficient condition for being a significant swing producer. Qatar, for instance, ranks very high on both duration and oil wealth per capita. However, Qatar holds only 1.3% of world reserves and thus cannot qualify for the role of swing producer. Intuitively, a swing producer must have both very large reserves and a low time preference rate, i.e., a high oil wealth per-capita ratio. Not surprisingly, Saudi Arabia is again in the top tier under these criteria, together with Kuwait and the Emirates. It happens that the two latter countries are small Gulf states bordering the vast Saudi kingdom. It does not take a Ph.D. in geopolitics to realise that these three countries actually form a coherent entity, which is, currently, the only real world swing producer, having considerable market power at its disposal. A second group of countries appears in this analysis: Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, and Qatar. Since Iraq is unlikely to form a coalition with Venezuela or Iran for obvious geographical, historical, and religious reasons, Iraq looks condemned to play only a secondary role -- unless its reserves are much bigger than assumed in the "proven reserves" statistics. If Iraq's reserves were twice as big as reported, an hypothesis many oil experts would not reject, Iraq would move very close to our first-tier group and easily qualify as a potential swing producer. A world with two swing producers would certainly be different. In theory at least, the optimal strategy of each would be to form a cartel with the other in order to extract a higher scarcity rent from oil-addicted consumers. The equilibrium price would then be higher than previously. In our oil scenarios, we have implicitly assumed that this case is unlikely. Assuming that the two swing producers, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, would compete for market power by increasing their respective market shares, the new equilibrium in oil markets would be reached at significantly lower prices. Therefore, financial markets have some reason to toy with the idea that oil prices might well collapse once the dust settles. However, as we pointed out in our September 25 Global Economic Forum dispatch, "New Oil Games," the "two competing swing producers" scenario is not the only possible outcome of the current tensions between the Western world and Iraq. Putting all one's eggs in one basket, however comfortable it might seem, is a dangerous strategy. From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sun Sep 29 05:40:38 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sun, 29 Sep 2002 05:40:38 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vcRC-0005an-00 for ; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 05:40:38 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vcQz-0004Bx-00; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 05:40:25 -0600 Received: from cmailg1.svr.pol.co.uk ([195.92.195.171]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vcQ1-0004Bo-00 for ; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 05:39:25 -0600 Received: from [195.92.168.141] (helo=tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk) by cmailg1.svr.pol.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vcQ0-0000KS-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 12:39:24 +0100 Received: from modem-3868.wolf.dialup.pol.co.uk ([81.76.143.28] helo=aidanjones) by tmailb1.svr.pol.co.uk with smtp (Exim 3.35 #1) id 17vcPx-00086s-00 for a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 12:39:22 +0100 From: "Mark Jones" To: Subject: RE: [A-List] Global Economy: Oil dynamics Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Importance: Normal In-Reply-To: <3D96C7F5.2549A168@iprimus.com.au> Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sun, 29 Sep 2002 12:38:38 +0100 Date: Sun, 29 Sep 2002 12:38:38 +0100 It's a little scary to see Morgan Stanley saying the same things five years down the line that we've been arguing on the Crashlist and the A-List for so long, but then they are teetering on the abyss themselves so I guess it was time to wake up. Mark > -----Original Message----- > From: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu > [mailto:a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu]On Behalf Of Rob Schaap > Sent: Sunday, September 29, 2002 10:29 AM > To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu > Subject: [A-List] Global Economy: Oil dynamics > > > http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020927-fri.html#anchor0 > Sept 27, 2002 Global: A World with Two Swing Oil Producers? > Eric Chaney (Paris) > > How Do Producers Rank in the Global Oil Market? > > Although Russia is now competing with > Saudi Arabia for the first place as the world's biggest oil producer, > the real market power of producers is linked to the size of their > reserves, since oil is a non-renewable resource. Ranked according to > the size of their "proven" reserves, Saudi Arabia wins this contest > without any ambiguity, holding 25% of world reserves as they were > reported at the end of 2000. For the sake of comparison, the Russian > Federation held only 4.6% of all reserves on the same measure. > Interestingly, Iraq comes in second, with 10.8% of world reserves. Of > course, "proven reserves" is a soft concept, to say the least. Over the > years, the search for new profitable oil fields > (intense when oil prices are high, less so when prices are depressed) > increases the size of "proven reserves," with one exception -- you > guessed it, Iraq. As a result of more than ten years of embargo, oil > field exploration was almost insignificant in Iraq. Although hard > evidence is by definition impossible to show, many analysts think that > Iraq's reserves are actually much bigger than what is suggested by the > "proven reserves" statistics. It is fair to say that, even though Saudi > Arabia probably remains the world champion, the gap with Iraq is not as > wide as it looks. In other words, Iraq is potentially a challenger to > Saudi Arabia as the biggest holder of easily workable oil reserves. > > Iraq Ranks Second in Both Reserves and Duration > > Another way to gauge the market power of > producers is to take a long forward-looking view and see who will > eventually win the battle for full monopoly, as, progressively, > countries endowed with small reserves or pumping existing reserves at > fast pace (as Russia is doing now), end up with no profitable oil left > in their fields. "Profitable" is an important qualification: since > there are substitutes for oil, at some stage, reserves will not be worth > being extracted, as oil will prove more expensive than substitutes. > Based on current levels of production, four countries stand out with > more than 80 years of production: Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab > Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Once again, Iraq ranks second. > > Which Countries Can Afford Long-Term Strategies? > > However, reserves and their life > expectancy are not the only parameters entering into the market power > equation. For oil-dependent economies where per-capita income is mainly > generated by oil production, long-term strategies are all the easier to > implement where the population is small. In theory at least, once > should assume that the time preference, or the discount rate, producer X > would use to evaluate the present value of its future production is > inversely proportional to its reserves per capita. Looking at oil > wealth per capita shows that three small Gulf countries clearly stand > out: Kuwait, the Emirates, and Qatar. Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Iraq are > lagging behind, but are nevertheless richly endowed, compared with most > oil producers. If these countries follow an optimal production path > over time, they should be interested in producing less today in order to > benefit from higher revenues at higher prices tomorrow, when their > competitors will run out of ammunition. Doing so would give them more > market power in so much as they would be able to increase or decrease > production as prices rise > or drop, without inflicting too much harm on their populations. > > Size Still Matters > > A low time preference is still not a > sufficient condition for being a significant swing producer. Qatar, for > instance, ranks very high on both duration and oil wealth per capita. > However, Qatar holds only 1.3% of > world reserves and thus cannot qualify for the role of swing producer. > Intuitively, a swing producer must have both very large reserves and a > low time preference rate, i.e., a high oil wealth per-capita ratio. Not > surprisingly, Saudi Arabia is again in the top tier under these > criteria, together with Kuwait and the Emirates. It happens that the > two latter countries are small Gulf states bordering the vast Saudi > kingdom. It does not take a Ph.D. in geopolitics to realise that these > three countries actually form a coherent entity, which is, currently, > the only real world swing producer, having considerable market power at > its disposal. > > A second group of countries appears in > this analysis: Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, and Qatar. Since Iraq is unlikely > to form a coalition with Venezuela or Iran for obvious geographical, > historical, and religious > reasons, Iraq looks condemned to play only a secondary role -- unless > its reserves are much bigger than assumed in the "proven reserves" > statistics. If Iraq's reserves were twice as big as reported, an > hypothesis many oil experts would not reject, Iraq would move very close > to our first-tier group and easily qualify as a potential swing > producer. > > A world with two swing producers would > certainly be different. In theory at least, the optimal strategy of > each would be to form a cartel with the other in order to extract a > higher scarcity rent from oil-addicted > consumers. The equilibrium price would then be higher than previously. > In our oil scenarios, we have implicitly assumed that this case is > unlikely. Assuming that the two swing producers, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, > would compete for market power by increasing their respective market > shares, the new equilibrium in oil markets would be reached at > significantly lower prices. Therefore, financial markets have some > reason to toy with the idea that oil prices might well collapse once the > dust settles. > > However, as we pointed out in our > September 25 Global Economic Forum dispatch, "New Oil Games," the "two > competing swing producers" scenario is not the only possible outcome of > the current tensions between the Western world and Iraq. Putting all > one's eggs in one basket, however comfortable it might seem, is a > dangerous strategy. > From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sun Sep 29 07:43:17 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sun, 29 Sep 2002 07:43:17 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17veLs-0007VH-00 for ; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 07:43:16 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17veLb-00058Q-00; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 07:42:59 -0600 Received: from maynard.mail.mindspring.net ([207.69.200.243]) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17veIn-00058B-00 for ; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 07:40:05 -0600 Received: from user-0c8ha0b.cable.mindspring.com ([24.136.168.11] helo=ms481691) by maynard.mail.mindspring.net with smtp (Exim 3.33 #1) id 17veIk-0003Mv-00; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 09:40:02 -0400 Message-ID: <078b01c267bb$dd70d5e0$0300a8c0@earthlink.net> From: "bon moun" To: References: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600 Subject: [A-List] War resistance building Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sun, 29 Sep 2002 09:26:41 -0400 Date: Sun, 29 Sep 2002 09:26:41 -0400 San Francisco anti-war protest draws thousands ...more than 3,000 protesters filled the city streets in a march and rally for peace in the Middle East. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2002/09/28/state2 011EDT0117.DTL [London] Protesters stage anti-war rally Organisers said 400,000 people joined in the march from the Embankment to a rally in Hyde Park on Saturday. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/2285861.stm ACLU chief, 6 others arrested at [Phoenix] protest Hundreds of people in Phoenix [1500] and Flagstaff [500] protested the possible U.S. invasion of Iraq and President Bush's visit to the state Friday. Grass-roots protests challenge push to strike Iraq Nashville, Tenn., 300 opponents gathered Bellingham, Wash., weekly anti-war vigils are drawing more participants. San Luis Obispo, Calif., 225 protesters marched through city streets last Saturday. More than 100 Christian theologians, ethicists and professors have signed petitions against the war. http://www.sacbee.com/24hour/nation/story/551782p-4352956c.html Rome protesters blow against the winds of war Thousands [50-100,000] of flag-waving, whistle-blowing demonstrators took to the streets of Rome on Saturday calling for peace with Iraq. http://famulus.msnbc.com/FamulusIntl/reuters09-28-085127.asp?reg=MIDEAST Portland [Maine] Police Arrest 14 Anti-War Marchers Portland police arrested 14 people Thursday night during a demonstration in which more than 100 people protested against possible U.S. military action in Iraq. http://www.commondreams.org/headlines02/0927-02.htm [Denver] Protesters take to the streets As President Bush entered a downtown Denver hotel, [1500-2500] anti-war demonstrators massed outside the Denver City and County Building to demand that the United States stay out of Iraq. http://rockymountainnews.com/drmn/election/article/0,1299,DRMN_36_1445407,0 0.html "People say, how can I help in this war on terror? How can I fight evil? You can do so by mentoring a child, by going into a shut-in's house and say I love you." -George W. Bush, September 19, 2002 http://www.softskull.com/cgi-bin/SoftCart.100.exe/store/goff/hideous_dream. html?E+scstore From a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Sun Sep 29 13:11:46 2002 Return-path: Envelope-to: archive@archives.econ.utah.edu Delivery-date: Sun, 29 Sep 2002 13:11:46 -0600 Received: from [128.110.171.164] (helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by archives.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vjTm-0000vT-00 for ; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 13:11:46 -0600 Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=lists.econ.utah.edu) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vjTS-0007JK-00; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 13:11:26 -0600 Received: from [128.121.244.232] (helo=wwpublish.com) by lists.econ.utah.edu with esmtp (Exim 3.35 #1 (Debian)) id 17vjSE-0007JB-00 for ; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 13:10:10 -0600 Received: from [66.65.52.169] (HELO station2) by wwpublish.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 4.0b6) with ESMTP id 1031601; Sun, 29 Sep 2002 15:10:07 -0400 Message-ID: <026c01c267eb$d2703660$6601a8c0@station2> From: "Gary Wilson" To: "ALIST" Cc: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 Subject: [A-List] WHY BUSH'S PREEMPTIVE WAR IS ILLEGAL: Attorneys speak out Sender: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu Errors-To: a-list-admin@lists.econ.utah.edu X-BeenThere: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.11 Precedence: bulk Reply-To: a-list@lists.econ.utah.edu List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Id: The A-List List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: X-Original-Date: Sun, 29 Sep 2002 15:10:05 -0400 Date: Sun, 29 Sep 2002 15:10:05 -0400 GEORGE BUSH PLANS HIGH CRIMES AND MISDEMEANORS: Why We Are Marching on October 26th By Carl Messineo and Mara Verheyden-Hilliard [The authors, attorneys and co-founders of the Partnership for Civil Justice - LDEF, are members of the national steering committee of the A.N.S.W.E.R. (Act Now to Stop War & End Racism) Coalition.] George W. Bush has declared his intention to wage a 'preemptive' war against Iraq and is now seeking to strong-arm the international community, the U.N., and the Congress into support and submission. As members of Congress rush to show their obedience and member states of the U.N. line up to receive the anticipated spoils of war, the administration is now waging a campaign to convince the people of the United States to fall into step and finance with money and blood this war brought for conquest on behalf of the corporate and oil interests that make up Bush's true constituency. Bush's preemptive war is a war of aggression. The U.S. policy supporting the war is not the rule of law, but the rule of force. But no U.N. resolution and no Congressional resolution can legalize an illegal war. With pen to paper and votes of support, they can only commit to wilful ratification, complicity and responsibility for illegal acts by endorsing a criminal enterprise. A war of aggression violates the United States Constitution, the United Nations Charter, and the principles of the Nuremberg Tribunal. It violates the collective law of humanity that recognizes the immeasurable harm and unconscionable human suffering when a country engages in wars of aggression to advance its government's perceived national interests. THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY: BLUEPRINT FOR GLOBAL EMPIRE On September 20, 2002, the Bush Administration issued its blueprint for global domination and ceaseless military interventions, in its comprehensive policy statement entitled "The National Security Strategy of the United States." The National Security Strategy sets forth the U.S. military-industrial complex's ambition for the U.S. to remain the world's superpower with global political, economic and military dominance. The stated policy of the U.S. is "dissuading military competition" (See source I) and preventing any other world entity or union of states "from pursuing a military build-up in hopes of surpassing, or equaling, the power of the United States." (See source II) The strategic plan elevates free trade and free markets to be "a moral principle . . . real freedom" (See source III) and endorses a comprehensive global conquest strategy utilizing the World Trade Organization, the Free Trade Act of the Americas, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, among other mechanisms. The Washington Post reports that the National Security Strategy gives the United States "a nearly messianic role" in its quest for global dominance. (See source IV) The National Security Strategy confirms and elaborates what was reflected in the January 2002 Nuclear Posture Review, that the Bush Administration maintains a policy of preemptive warfare contemplating the use of non-conventional weapons of mass destruction as a first strike measure. (See source V) TURNING LOGIC ON ITS HEAD Bush's preemptive war policy is a war without just cause. Under international law and centuries of common legal usage, a preemptive war may be justified as an act of self defense only where there exists a genuine and imminent threat of physical attack. Bush's preemptive war against Iraq doesn't even purport to preempt a physical attack. It purports to preempt a threat that is neither issued nor posed. Iraq is not issuing threats of attack against the United States. It is only the United States which threatens war. It is not a war for disarmament. It is the U.S. which has stockpiled nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. It is the U.S. which is directly threatening to use these weapons against another country. It is the U.S. which has bombed Iraq relentlessly for more than ten years, killing scores of innocent civilians. The Bush Administration turns logic on its head, twisting reality in order to create the pretext for its war of aggression. The Administration claims that the necessary prerequisite of an imminent threat of attack can be found in the fact that there is no evidence of an imminent threat, and therefore the threat is even more sinister as a hidden threat. The lack of a threat becomes the threat, which becomes cause for war. By the U.S. Government's own claims, it destroyed 80% of Iraq's weapons capability in the earlier Gulf War, and subsequently destroyed 90% of the remaining capacity through the weapons inspections process. There has been no evidence that Iraq is capable of an attack on the U.S., let alone possessing the intention of carrying out such an attack. BUSH'S PROPOSED WAR AND CURRENT THREATS VIOLATE THE U.S. CONSTITUTION, THE U.N. CHARTER AND INTERNATIONAL LAW Bush's preemptive war policy and proposed attack on Iraq cannot be justified under any form of established law. The preemptive war policy and Bush's threatened new military assault on Iraq violates U.S. domestic law and international law. The warmongering, preparations for war, and threats of violence coming from Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice and other White House and Pentagon hawks, are in and of themselves violations of international law and constitute crimes against peace. Article VI of the U.S. Constitution establishes that ratified treaties, such as the U.N. Charter, are the "supreme law of the land." The Article 1 of the U.N. Charter establishes "The purposes of the United Nations are . . . To maintain international peace and sovereignty, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removals of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace and to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace . . ." Article 2 states that all member states "shall act in accordance with the following Principles" ". . . All members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered. "All members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations . . ." Under this framework, acts of aggression, such as Bush's threatened attack, are to be suppressed and force is used only as a last and unavoidable resort. The U.N. Charter was enacted in 1945 in the aftermath of the devastation and suffering of World War II. The Charter was enacted to bring an end to acts of aggression, "to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war, which twice in our lifetime has brought untold sorrow to mankind." Disputes which might lead to a breach of the peace are required to be resolved *by peaceful means.* Chapter VI of the U.N. Charter, "Pacific Settlement of Disputes," requires countries to "first of all, seek a resolution by negotiation, enquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, resort to regional agencies or arrangements, or other peaceful means of their own choice." NO RESOLUTION BY THE U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL CAN LEGALIZE A PREEMPTIVE WAR OR FIRST STRIKE PLAN Bush has asked the U.N. Security Council to support execution of Bush's policy of a potentially nuclear "preemptive" war, as if that Council could endorse a war of aggression. The Security Council lacks the legal authority to grant such permission. The Security Council, by affirmative vote or by acquiescence to U.S. policy, cannot abrogate its own mandate. No collective action by the fifteen permanent and temporary members of the Security Council can lawfully violate the Charter which is the sole source of their collective authority. This is made clear in the U.N. Charter itself, which provides in Article 24, that "In discharging these duties the Security Council *shall act in accordance with the Purposes and Principles of the United Nations*." While there are, of course, procedures by which collective use of force may be authorized by the Security Council to maintain or restore international peace and security (Articles 41 and 42) those procedures may not be used to endorse aggression in violation of the primary purposes of the U.N. Charter. Article 51 of the U.N. Charter acknowledges the right to self-defense ?if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security." None of the provisions allow for authorization for Bush's war plans and first strike strategies. Any resolution authorizing a preemptive war of aggression is *ultra vires*, or null and void as beyond the authority of the Council to enact. The very issuance of the Bush doctrine of preemptive warfare and also the threat to wage war against Iraq are, each, a violation of international law as a crime against peace, which is defined in the Nuremberg Charter as the "Planning, preparation, initiation or waging of a war of aggression or a war in violation of international treaties, agreements or assurances." RESPONSIBILITY FOR WAR CRIMES Neither Congress nor the President has the right to engage the U.S. in a war of aggression and any vote of endorsement, far from legalizing or legitimizing global war plans, serves only as ratification of war crimes. Under the principles of universal accountability established at Nuremberg, "The fact that a person who committed an act which constitutes a crime under international law acted as Head of State or responsible Government official does not relieve him from responsibility under international law." (See source VI) The execution of economic sanctions by the Bush I, Bush II and Clinton Administrations, which has caused the deaths of over one million people, primarily children and their grandparents, is likewise sanctionable as a crime against humanity under the Nuremberg Charter and under the International Criminal Court Statute as "the intentional infliction of conditions of life, . . . the deprivation of access of food to medicine, calculated to bring about the destruction of a part of a population. (See source VII) The Bush Administration has rejected the International Criminal Court treaty signed by over 130 countries. This rejection is an admission of the administration's consciousness of guilt and of criminal intentions. The Bush administration acts with a conscious disregard of humanitarian laws and a stated intention to avoid accountability for their crimes under international law prohibiting crimes against the peace, war crimes and crimes against humanity. The National Security Strategy promulgated by the Bush administration states that the United States "will take the actions necessary to ensure that our efforts to meet our global security commitments and protect Americans are not impaired by the potential for investigations, inquiry or prosecution by the International Criminal Court (ICC), whose jurisdiction does not extend to Americans and which we do not accept." (See source VIII) ENDLESS WAR, AGGRESSION AND TERROR Once this policy of preemptive wars of aggression is invoked by the Bush Administration to justify unprovoked attacks against the centers of population in Iraq, the doctrine will be used by the hawks in the administration time and time again, and will also be adopted by nations and individuals internationally as a justification for the preemptive use of catastrophic violence against centers of population worldwide. The legitimization of preemptive wars of aggression will be used to justify attacks against U.S. centers of population, and will bring greater violent retribution upon the cities and people of the United States for actions that the government is taking in their names, without their informed consent. The risk of suffering harm because of this doctrine is, of course, not distributed equally among all residents of the United States. Those who will lose their lives fighting in wars of aggression will be the young, disproportionately persons of color, and those who must enlist in the U.S. military because of bleak economic opportunity. Those who derive their wealth and security from the transactions of war, from increased oil profits caused by global instability or conquest of oil rich regions, and from the constant re-building and re-arming necessary to conduct endless wars against countless peoples premised on imperceptible threats -- they will have the means to acquire seclusion, protection and greater safety. Preemptive war will not stop with Iraq. Constant military interventions worldwide are necessary to enforce Bush?s stated policy of global economic, political and military domination. Just four days after the September 11th attacks, the CIA presented its "Worldwide Attack Matrix" identifying scores of countries that the CIA wanted permission to attack. Bush approved the CIA wish list, and authorized immediate covert and lethal CIA operations in over sixty nations. (See source IX) TAKING TO THE STREETS As the U.S. moves at breakneck pace in execution of its stated policy of global domination and overt military interventions, the need for the people to take action is urgent. Congress will not stop this policy of aggressive warfare and global domination. Many in Congress are well served with the tithing of the war profiteers and their corporate sponsors who see U.S. military domination as a way to enforce their interests, to exploit human labor at starvation wages overseas and to drive down wages domestically, to mine vast sources of environmental resources globally, and to impose and expand the reach of their "free" markets. The U.S. Constitutional framework provides that, regardless of who temporarily holds office, all power remains in the hands of the people. It is time now for the people to take the reins of power back from those who have stated their intention to act in violation of all laws that humankind has struggled to create to end global conflagration and prohibit wars of aggression. When law will not restrain the government, the people must. We must take to the streets in mass numbers in organized and spontaneous acts of resistance. The message must be clearly conveyed that if the Bush administration refuses to be accountable to U.S. domestic law, to the U.N. Charter, to international law, to all known standards of just conduct, then the people of conscience within the United States will rise up to demand accountability. And the message must be sent that the people of the U.S. will not allow the Bush administration to spend the blood of the people of the United States and the people of Iraq who are not our enemies, in a needless war for oil. -SEPTEMBER, 2002 The authors, Carl Messineo and Mara Verheyden-Hilliard, constitutional law and human rights lawyers, are the co-founders of the Partnership for Civil Justice Legal Defense and Education Fund, a public interest legal organization in Washington, D.C., and authors of the forthcoming book "Empire at Home: George W. Bush and John Ashcroft v. the Bill of Rights." FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT: Partnership for Civil Justice LDEF 1901 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W. Suite 607 Washington, D.C. 20006 (202) 530-5630 http://www.civil-rights.net For a formatted, printable version of this article, go to http://www.civil-rights.net/webdocs/illegal_war.pdf (acrobat reader required) To join the OCTOBER 26 NATIONAL MARCH ON WASHINGTON DC & joint action in San Francisco to Stop the War Against Iraq Before It Starts, and to learn more about anti-war resources, visit http://www.InternationalANSWER.org and see below for more information. -------------------- SOURCES for "George Bush Plans High Crimes and Misdemeanors" I) National Security Strategy of the United States, September 2002, page 29. II) National Security Strategy of the United States, September 2002, page 30. III) National Security Strategy of the United States, September 2002, page 18. IV) Karen DeYoung and Mike Allen, The Washington Post, "Bush Shifts Strategy from Deterrence to Dominance," September 21, 2001, A1. V) Walter Pincus, The Washington Post, "U.S. Nuclear Arms Stance Modified by Policy Study," March 23, 2002, A14; Thomas E. Ricks and Vernon Loeb, The Washington Post, "Bush Developing Military Policy of Striking First," June 10, 2002, A1. VI) Principle III, Principles of International Law Recognized in the Charter of the Nuremberg Tribunal and in the Judgment of the Tribunal (Adopted by the International Law Commission of the United States, 1950). VII) International Criminal Court Statute, Article 7, paragraph 2. VIII) National Security Strategy of the United States, September 2002, page 31. IX) Bob Woodward and Dan Balz, The Washington Post, "At Camp David, Advice and Dissent," January 31, 2002, A1; Bob Woodward, The Washington Post, "President Broadens Anti-Hussein Order," June 16, 2002, A1. -------------------- Momentum is building for the October 26 National March in Washington DC & joint action in San Francisco. For the growing list of ENDORSERS, go to http://www.internationalanswer.org/campaigns/o26/endorsers.html BUSES, VANS and CAR CARAVANS are coming to DC from a growing list of cities: http://www.internationalanswer.org/campaigns/o26/index.html (updated frequently) HELP GET THE WORD OUT! Download flyer at: http://www.internationalanswer.org/pdf/o2602flyer.pdf FOR MORE INFORMATION about Oct. 26 email dc@internationalanswer.org or call 202-332-5757 or 415-821-6545.