The world is as we preceive it.
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Posted by Shmuelpro // Tue, Jan 3, 2006 7:01 AM
Industry Feeling Presence of the 800-Pound Google
Just five years ago, Microsoft Corp. was considered the Big Bad Wolf of the media business.
Armed with a stockpile of cash and the Windows operating system that dominates office computing, Bill Gates' company was expected to huff and puff its way into America's living rooms as well, with video game consoles, home networking systems and TV set-top boxes.
But today, there's a different wolf at the door. Although Microsoft is still flush with $40 billion in cash, it is Google Inc. that the media industry fears most. So intense is Google-fueled paranoia, in fact, that industry watchers believe the Internet search giant could drive profound changes in the media, entertainment and technology landscape in 2006.
Already, old media are investing heavily in new-media ventures. Newspapers like this one are defending their bread-and-butter income — classified advertising — by stepping up their Web offerings. Media conglomerates such as News Corp. are buying Web properties like MySpace.com that connect them to young audiences, who are forsaking television and radio in favor of the Internet.
This year, new media could return the favor by investing in old media — the folks who know the most about producing entertainment content.
Here are some predictions for the media industry for 2006, based on interviews with industry analysts, executives and investors, along with a little intuition.
Cheap PCs, anyone?
Google will unveil its own low-price personal computer or other device that connects to the Internet.
Sources say Google has been in negotiations with Wal-Mart Stores Inc., among other retailers, to sell a Google PC. The machine would run an operating system created by Google, not Microsoft's Windows, which is one reason it would be so cheap — perhaps as little as a couple of hundred dollars.
Bear Stearns analysts speculated in a research report last month that consumers would soon see something called "Google Cubes" — a small hardware box that could allow users to move songs, videos and other digital files between their computers and TV sets.
Larry Page, Google's co-founder and president of products, will give a keynote address Friday at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Analysts suspect that Page will use the opportunity either to show off a Google computing device or announce a partnership with a big retailer to sell such a machine.
And that's not the only Google theory out there. Content producers wonder whether Google's push into video search will unravel the economics that make Hollywood hum. If viewers can find and legally download an episode of "Seinfeld" through Google, will that cut into cable and network television's profits?
And what if Google, after equipping cities, starting with San Francisco, with Wi-Fi wireless technology, starts to offer pay-TV service for free?
Still, to date, the company's $123-billion stock market value is based almost entirely on its dominance of one business: global text searches on the Web. Some investors worry that Page and co-founder Sergey Brin could be done in by their penchant for seeing themselves as do-gooders rather than profiteers. But those naysayers are in the minority. Most industry executives and Wall Street analysts believe that Google's search engine business is robust enough to give the young billionaires two or three years of wiggle room to build nifty services first and worry about making money on them later.
Microsoft comes out swinging
When Microsoft lost its yearlong battle to replace Google as the provider of advertisements on Time Warner Inc.'s AOL Search last month, one analyst described the defeat as "the death knell" for MSN, Microsoft's Internet service.
Within days, speculation was rampant that Microsoft, determined to keep itself in the game, had offered to buy Yahoo Inc. for $80 billion. If rumors were to be believed, the Microsoft bid — a premium of more than 30% over the Web giant's current market value — was rejected by Yahoo as too low.
Will Microsoft spend $90 billion or more to buy Yahoo or, alternatively, AOL parent Time Warner? Maybe not, especially when the software giant could buy Barry Diller's IAC/InterActiveCorp at a fraction of the price. If owned by Microsoft, Diller's collection of websites such as Ask Jeeves, Expedia, HSN.com, LendingTree and Ticketmaster could help drive traffic to MSN.
Icahn retreats
Wall Street sources said that upon learning of the Google-AOL alliance, bankers at Lazard Ltd. who represented financier Carl Icahn asked Gates to join their team.
The hope was that Microsoft would aid Icahn in his proxy battle to unseat the Time Warner board, split up the company and win control of AOL.
Most media experts, however, are betting that the opposite will occur: Icahn, lacking support from the entertainment giant's institutional investors, will fold his cards in defeat even before Time Warner's annual meeting this spring.
It seems like a long shot that Microsoft would throw its lot in with a likely loser. Still, by year's end, with its Windows operating system buffeted by a low-cost or free Google alternative, Microsoft may think twice about not having pursued a jewel like Time Warner.
What do you think will happen if Google unviels an OS?
do you think they will have powerfull enough programming tools to support it?
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I read some time ago that google is aiming to buy an island with shape of the letter G.. If that so; I think Microsoft should be looking for continants with the letters Microsoft!
Google is growing very fast, this is a fact.. but soon they will slow down, it's the first basic rule of business, more or less; I don't expect the Google buzz thing to last!
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Setting aside fair use (couldn't we have just had a paragraph quoted and not the whole article?) the whole thing is funny because web sites have missed this is a prediction, and are quoting it as fact.
What makes me laugh is "an operating system created by Google"
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behold my friend, it's gonna be another Linux distribution.
how many yet?
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They will, but not an os just a set top box for your tv or pc to plug directly into Google. A web Based TV.
The programming tools exist (html,ajax,flash, java,javascript,asp.net etc..) I would not call it a OS (yet).
Google is as we speak placing large protected 40 ft long container boxes all over the country that each have enough computing power for a small city. The grid is being built. They are buying up fiber faster then you can say “Don’t be evil”! However I think they will plummet.
Their sole business model is advertising. They are biting the hands that once fed them. They seem to be dispersing themselves to widely. All great empires come to and end and I think we will see allot of that end happen in 2006-07.
The thing is how could MS crush Google or slow them down. Honestly if I was BillG I would give Vista away for free and build in a advertising support system, this would be worth more to MS then the OS cost's it self, and successfully cool goggles heals quite rapidly. If you don’t want ad’s then buy the pro version.
The usual internet consumer would take the ad supported version, giving MS a vehicle for delivery much larger and powerful then Googles. Then if anyone cry’s about it (MS monopoly etc..) Point to Google and their plans. Google wants to own the internet, be the sole ISP, and only access to it.
I for one would have no problem seeing ad’s in a free OS. As long as it did not hinder me too much.
MS needs to find way’s to take away Googles revenue, if they don’t Google will win and MS will loose, but big!
Why aren’t the MS people out making deals with the media companies? The media companies need another choice, I think we can safely say Google has a monopoly or 2 going on and if not yet will have soon.
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 | Sourcecode wrote:
They will, but not an os just a set top box for your tv or pc to plug directly into Google. A web Based TV. |
Web-TV. been there. done that. flopped totally.
I don't think Google is dumb enough to fish for the tech-phobic market.
That's a small, stingy and quickly
saturated market which probably can't be sold to using the name
"google", since they don't know a search engine from a rotary engine.
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| Heywood_J wrote:
Web-TV. been there. done that. flopped totally.
I don't think Google is dumb enough to fish for the tech-phobic market. That's a small, stingy and quickly saturated market which probably can't be sold to using the name "google", since they don't know a search engine from a rotary engine.
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Umm, may have worded that wrong. A small web device that can connect to the web via a PC, TV, etc.. On this device you can store your data, and have that accessible to you from anywhere, share with friends or family etc.. basically a tiny web server, and an access to the net it self.
Not just web TV, and much more powerful / useful. The principle use for a home computer (for average Joe) today is internet, email, and information. Plug and play anything you want. Google knows how to build machines look at the Pizza Box…
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Google box
Think of this as your personnel information assistant. Pushing an email to you where ever you are, gathering your requested information off the net for you, alerting when new things happen. Either presenting this to you on your device of choice or speaking it. Voice controlled, translation, and much, much more for the low price of 199.99$ The Google Box. In stores Christmas 2006…
Very low power consumption, batteries not included…
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| Sourcecode wrote:
Google box
Think of this as your personnel information assistant. Pushing an email to you where ever you are, gathering your requested information off the net for you, alerting when new things happen. Either presenting this to you on your device of choice or speaking it. Voice controlled, translation, and much, much more for the low price of 199.99$ The Google Box. In stores Christmas 2006…
Very low power consumption, batteries not included… |
Would need something better than "personal information assistant", that isn't going to sell into trailers (if you will forgive the stereotype).
Now if this sat between my receiver and my TV, and overlaid the TV signal with a new email alert, that might almost be interesting.
But I doubt it. google may have the data, but they don't have support staff and keeping that non-evil would be hard. And who would they market it to? Us? No, we have PCs for that.
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| blowdart wrote:
Would need something better than "personal information assistant", that isn't going to sell into trailers (if you will forgive the stereotype).
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oop's didn't catch that one, and thanks for the correction on the spelling.
| blowdart wrote:
Now if this sat between my receiver and my TV, and overlaid the TV signal with a new email alert, that might almost be interesting.
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It can do much more then that...
| blowdart wrote:
But I doubt it. google may have the data, but they don't have support staff and keeping that non-evil would be hard. And who would they market it to? Us? No, we have PCs for that.
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I have a couple PC's but still have a dvd player, nintendo, xbox yadda yadaa yadaa...
Just imagine being able to chat with a neighbor and be online at the same time. VOIP, + Collaborative browsing ? Plug in your numeric cameras flash card and your photos are accessible to your family? Sounds great to me. 199.99 $ Mark me down for 2 !! Though, I only need one for my household as it’s network aware…
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| Sourcecode wrote:
Just imagine being able to chat with a neighbor and be online at the same time. VOIP, + Collaborative browsing ? |
VOIP? Now there's an idea, although last time I played with it search indexing sound files was pretty crappy.
I can see it now though, you're talking to your granny when suddenly;
granny : now you're sure you have clean underwear on?
you : yes gran (rolling your eyes)
bing bing bing
this googletalk call is sponsored by
Ann Summers underwear
bing bing bing
granny : what was that?
you : errr
More seriously the suggested technology is great, but really, would your mother actually care? would it sell to her? it's doubtful, and for those of us who know what voice over ip actually is, well we're already computer aware, and probably have better services for photo sharing, collaberation and so on already.
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| blowdart wrote:
VOIP? Now there's an idea, although last time I played with it search indexing sound files was pretty crappy.
I can see it now though, you're talking to your granny when suddenly;
granny : now you're sure you have clean underwear on?
you : yes gran (rolling your eyes)
bing bing bing
this googletalk call is sponsored by
Ann Summers underwear
bing bing bing
granny : what was that?
you : errr
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ROFL
| blowdart wrote:
More seriously the suggested technology is great, but really, would your mother actually care? would it sell to her? it's doubtful, and for those of us who know what voice over ip actually is, well we're already computer aware, and probably have better services for photo sharing, collaberation and so on already.
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If your granny can watch "All My Children, or Andy Griffith" she can do this. However it's more likely the target market here is you, your kid's and your parents/siblings etc.. Granny is just one generation to high.
This is more then a set of services this is a tiny web server on your domain hooked up to high speed access.
WWW.Google.Blowdart.GOG
You don't have to re-touch photos, just plug in the flash card set your sharing preferences and good to go. I have not seen a service as easy as that. It takes collaboration to new heights (which have always been a problem). Pushing play listed music to your devices or work computer. All the services are in the box and auto updated to the latest builds.
A low cost internet solution for all. Computer prices have come down but still not that cheap.
Of course we are just envisioning this thing and it may or [edit] may not be real, but; it is possible today. You could think of a ton’s of services to plunk into the thing. Heck you could get the Channle9 show pushed directly to your 107cm plasma home system, or news feeds in the toilet .
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I suppose I’m just thinking if Google wants to continue the momentum they are at, they need a big ground breaking technology.
Ad’s won’t cut it anymore, but with a medium as we talk about here, pay for web “2.0” services would give them their second long tail business model, and successfully carry them through the next wave of technology innovation.
[Edit]
Where by web 2.0 services would pay for distribution and or consumers would pay for access.
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Why Cant Microsoft and Google just get along?, Make Microsoft Google and make every human on this earth happy 
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| blowdart wrote:
What makes me laugh is "an operating system created by Google"
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remember this sample mockup?
http://www.channel9.ca/new/googlewebtop/start2.htm
i think if they ever get the UI together (aka like picasa) - no pun intended ms will have alot to worry about
remember - google doesnt really want to sell you ads - it wants to be the gateway to the things you need want and like
content and services - based on above - wouldnt be intrusive
add to that they will most likely be free - as google would make their money through partners and advertisers they have brought in / connected you to (like you wanted) and not the consumer nickel dime game on top of a 500$ OS that cant serve webpages to more than 2 concurrent users (like MS does it)
I really hope they do it - so
a) Vista will have a WAY lower price - 50 to 90$
b) Office will have a way lower price - 50 to 90$
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