Report: Entire world to blog within 12 months
Yes folks, it’s true. A couple of days ago the CEO of Technorati posted on his blog that over 50 million blogs exist (Technorati new slogan: one site to rate them all, one site to find them, one site to track them all, and in the darkness bind them), and its growing rapidly. Sifry states “Frankly, I can’t possibly imagine it continuing to grow at this pace - after all, there are only so many human beings in the world! It has to slow down.” He’s wrong, people. Dead wrong.
Here’s my blog growth chart, which clearly proves it:
(if the above image is cropped, click here to see the whole thing)
For you “math hounds” who want “statistics” to “prove” the curve, it’s really simple. In fact, these estimates may be conservative. Over the next 6 months, the “blogosphere” will grow at a mere 11% per month (well below) it’s pace this year. However, by next March, in an effort to remain competitive, the US and UK will put out a blogging mandate, and we’ll see a 50% bump by end of April. India will soon follow, and the number of blogs will double on a monthly basis through June. Then China comes fully online in a pre-Olympic rush, and we’ll see a tripling of blogs. And on August 13th, 2007, the blogosphere will declare war on the physical world (sponsored by Second Life), and most of the Earth will be overcome by grey goo.
Now not everyone believes Sifry’s numbers, and Om Malik even went so far as to do some research on the matter (btw, Om, who’s Dave Fifry?), but I think we all know there is just no way to keep up with the blogosphere… Dead or not.
The interesting part, as I see it is the upcoming “blogospace war.” While 100 million users on Myspace (as of this week) seems impressive, I agree with Nate’s comment: WTF? I mean, Pete Cashmore observed 170,000 new users in less than a day, but that’s just getting warmed up. A fight is a-brewin’ (off-topic, am I the only one who saw Nick’s comment that Google doesn’t plan ‘to cover MySpace with ads’ and thought, “thank goodness, cuz nobody wants an ugly MySpace page”?)
And then AOL will buy whomever’s left standing, because what the heck else are they going to do, more chat?