I’ve been thinking a bit about this series, and decided if I was really going to make a point (or just be funny, either is good with me), I needed to “break out” of the overly techie terminology.  Not to say it won’t be back as soon as next week, but I realized if I were to challenge dear mom on, say FTP, she’d have no idea.  But then again, I don’t think there’s as much ooh-la-la about FTP these days as there is, say, bookmarkletting or blogmobbing (don’t worry mom, neither are words).

Also, I asked Mom to describe some of her research ‘paths’ and included them here.  Without further adieu, awaaaay-we-go!

I assume tht Social Networking is exactly what it says….networking in order to be able to socialize, meet someone?, not a dating service though. Perhaps a way for people to be able to socialize on-line since they don’t seem to be able to do this in person. Skills have increased on-line rather than in person. Does that seem a tad judgemental? considering that I haven’t even researched the topic…

The funny thing (well, for me, that is), is Mom isn’t nearly as critical of things as I am!  Ain’t that a hoot?

Whoops!! First two choices on Google refer to ‘wiki’ and we all now know
what that means, don’t we?

Notice how a bit of research into Wiking has soured my Mom on anything-wiki?  I’ll give her the heads-up that Wikipedia is worth checking out, for the most part…

From The Social Software Weblog: Now here’s something I find interesting.
I’m reading a short piece on a patent on social networking granted. I cannot
believe that the internet/computer world, whatever you want to call it, has
become so specialized that I’m having trouble understanding the whole piece.
OK, I just got it. My guess is partially correct, the part that I’m missing
is ‘relationships within social networks’.

Wait!! From Orgnet.com: After reading this, I’m not sure why this social
networking even exists. What is the purpose of it? Is it just fancy
terminology for something that has always existed?

See?  Mom’s got google skills and whatnot! 

From Technorati: OK, I was right originally.

Okay, good job Mom.  Next question was: “can you find a social network that appeals to you?”

No, I wouldn’t use something like this. I have a hard time using ‘instant’
friendships or anything like that. I would rather meet someone, even on the
other side of world, in a more natural way. So I’m not looking for one that
I would use because I wouldn’t use one.

Fair enough.  So I followed up with: “what about Eons.com?” (for those who don’t know, Eons is a social network for, the 50-plus, and I don’t mean you tubbies out there)

Obviously this is a site that I would read and go back to, but I doubt that I would reach out to meet someone because that’s not my style. I might go to some events if they held alot of interest for me.

Well, there you have it.  My poor delusional mother just wants to make “real” friends, not these “virtual” ones.  That is just so nineties of her.  Mom - get with the program - nobody needs to “meet” people anymore.  GOSH!

Yes folks, it’s true.  A couple of days ago the CEO of Technorati posted on his blog that over 50 million blogs exist (Technorati new slogan: one site to rate them all, one site to find them, one site to track them all, and in the darkness bind them), and its growing rapidly.  Sifry states “Frankly, I can’t possibly imagine it continuing to grow at this pace - after all, there are only so many human beings in the world! It has to slow down.”  He’s wrong, people. Dead wrong. 

Here’s my blog growth chart, which clearly proves it:

(if the above image is cropped, click here to see the whole thing)

For you “math hounds” who want “statistics” to “prove” the curve, it’s really simple.  In fact, these estimates may be conservative.  Over the next 6 months, the “blogosphere” will grow at a mere 11% per month (well below) it’s pace this year.  However, by next March, in an effort to remain competitive, the US and UK will put out a blogging mandate, and we’ll see a 50% bump by end of April.  India will soon follow, and the number of blogs will double on a monthly basis through June.  Then China comes fully online in a pre-Olympic rush, and we’ll see a tripling of blogs.  And on August 13th, 2007, the blogosphere will declare war on the physical world (sponsored by Second Life), and most of the Earth will be overcome by grey goo.

Now not everyone believes Sifry’s numbers, and Om Malik even went so far as to do some research on the matter (btw, Om, who’s Dave Fifry?), but I think we all know there is just no way to keep up with the blogosphere… Dead or not.

The interesting part, as I see it is the upcoming “blogospace war.”  While 100 million users on Myspace (as of this week) seems impressive, I agree with Nate’s comment: WTF?  I mean, Pete Cashmore observed 170,000 new users in less than a day, but that’s just getting warmed up.  A fight is a-brewin’  (off-topic, am I the only one who saw Nick’s comment that Google doesn’t plan ‘to cover MySpace with ads’ and thought, “thank goodness, cuz nobody wants an ugly MySpace page”?)

And then AOL will buy whomever’s left standing, because what the heck else are they going to do, more chat?

Just saw today on Richard MacManus’ blog that the Web is (sorta) 15 years old today.  Congrats WWW, well done. I think it’s especially exciting to reminisce about the days before Web 1.0 and 2.0.  Back when you could see a TV commercial for, say, Advil or McDonald’s, and no URL showed up (how did they manage to sell products or disseminate information?).  Back when sharing a photo was done through the mail.  It got me thinking about what the next few years might look like (with a few more details than I read here).

For one, I think this era of “Web 2.0″ will last for a while, and could even span a couple of bubbles.  Part of the reason I believe this is because the term is so nebulous, few people can truly define it (although there have been numerous mediocre attempts).  Going along with this is the fact that the term spans so many types of technologies, many of which have little to do with each other (sure, you can link up podcasting with social networking, but they are not inherently related technologies).  As a result, we are using a catch-all phrase to follow multiple trends.  I liked Michael’s take on my Ask Skeptic’s Mom’s series to summarize.  I don’t think it’s hard to envision several mini-bubbles/booms occurring over the next 2-5 years, all surrounding ‘Web 2.0′ as a concept.

A second prediction I have is much of the popularity of sites like MySpace and FaceBook will wane.  Why?  Think of them like a dance club.  Someone opens something new and exciting.  The social leaders (equivalent of thought leaders) find it, go there.  It gets all hot and steamy for a while, and magically it ‘tips‘ into becoming the hot spot (Skeptic on Malcolm: tipping point: worth reading on an airplane. blink: “cliff’s notes worthy”. gladwell’s blog: a little long to read on a regular basis).  Eventually what happens?  The place is no longer full of the cool kids, but the wannabes.  Lots of bridge and tunnel.  This is, in my opinion, extremely important, especially to you VCs who look at funding these companies - there is virtually no switching cost to get out of either site.  In fact, you want to know someone with a good idea?  They have a new social networking site that allows users to import their entire MySpace domain all at once. 

Thirdly, I believe the launch of Windows Vista (including ultra-premium, high-octane, and diesel versions, but not the one with techron) will have a dramatic bolstering effect to Web 2.0 services.  When all the 2.0 engineers around the world (yes, believe it or not it spans beyond the US) can implement their cool ideas without even needing hosting or (ahem) domain names, I think we will see a virtual onslaught of gadgets and widgets and koodgets and konfabsters and all that, you know, stuff (why did we need new terms for software?).  I also think it’s extremely plausible that this push will help get some actual 2.0 business in place, using simple software licensing, distribution, pay-per-use, or even shareware models (as opposed to facing ridiculously hard marketing challenges).

Fourth and final (for now) is Adsense will get un-broken.  There’s no question in my mind that Adsense is the closest thing to a ‘new economy’ we’ve ever had.  It is a cash-printing machine that basically saved Google from going out of business (word on the street is they almost ran outta dough paying hosting fees and rent back in the day).  But right now it basically screwing up the Internet (sound familiar? well, then you’ve been reading here for quite some time, thanks a bunch!) in a variety of ways.  But I think it’ll get fixed (not like spayed, which would be bad) in the next, say, 3 years.  Could be much sooner, but since they aren’t really incented to do anything about it, I can’t see Larry or Sergey rushing the engineering team to fix it.  Not when they have tons and tons of useless endeavours to push forward with!

So thanks again, Tim, for giving us the Wonderful World of Webbery, I think we all appreciate it, a lot of the time.  Well, other than the senators (yes, it’s the YouTube video of the Daily Show, but some people haven’t seen it yet, so there’s a handy link, since I generally think actually linking to things is more helpful than, you know, not linking to things) who attempt to regulate it all, but they are just elected officials…