Strategic Geography and the Changing Middle East: Concepts, Definitions, and Parameters

What Is Strategic Geography?

Strategic geography refers to the control of, or access to, spatial areas (land, water, and air, including outer space) that has an impact either positive or negative on the security and economic prosperity of nations. It embraces all dimensions of geography, which includes both physical and human geography. This is a more focused definition than the classical concepts of geopolitics succinctly defined by Saul Cohen as "the relation of international political power to the geographical setting." 22 It has a more specific meaning in that it is more directed at the tactical elements of geography that contribute to grand strategy.

The physical geography of a region generally changes very slowly, though some features change at different rates than others. Over centuries topographical features such as mountains, lakes, rivers, and shore lines can be altered significantly, with far-reaching consequences, and the climate of a region can change, often more rapidly than its topography. Continents that today are separated by oceans were once joined; rivers once flowed across what is now the Sahara; during the last ice age much of the northern hemisphere was uninhabited; and the great forests that covered India, Europe, and parts of the Middle East are no more. Some physical changes can occur within decades, such as the depletion of natural resources, and some can happen over ten to fifteen years, which is the approximate time range covered in this study. There could be significant physical changes in the Middle East if major water projects are developed that will literally change the physical landscape.

The human geography of a region - which can and does change very rapidly, depending upon a number of factors - can be broken down into dozens of subcategories. For our purposes we will focus on three of them. Political geography describes the control and organization of territory, including people and assets. Economic geography refers to the infrastructure and industrial and rural facilities that contribute to the economy of a region, including roads, ports, airports, pipelines, energy utilities, factories, farms, and patterns of trade. Military geography concerns the deployment and power projection of military assets as they relate to space, time, and distance and the impact that physical constraints have upon both offensive and defensive military operations.

Political geography can be radically changed overnight as a result of war, revolution, or other political upheavals. The breakup of the Soviet Union with its impact on the political borders of Eurasia is the most dramatic and important instance in recent years but it is not the only example. The 1947 partition of India and the 1971 creation of Bangladesh radically changed the political configuration of the subcontinent. In 1967 Israel's military victory over the Arabs changed the political map of the Middle East for thirty years. Richard Nixon's historic visit to China in February 1972 changed the political balance with the Soviet Union overnight. An influx of refugees or mass migration of people can alter the political map of a region very rapidly. A second exodus of Palestinians to Lebanon in the 1970s was one of the precursors of a fifteen-year civil war.

The economic geography of a region or country or city can change radically in positive and negative ways as a result of innovative technologies and new market conditions. Venetian traders must have been appalled the day it was announced that the Portuguese had pioneered a route to the Spice Islands via Africa. The impact of the Suez Canal on international commerce was enormous. Yet in the 1970s the closure of the canal owing to war and the appearance around the same time of supertankers too large to use it showed how alternative commercial routes can frequently be developed if the economics are right. The mining of phosphates by Israel and Jordan along the Dead Sea coupled with a reduction in the flow of water from the north created a land mass that divides the Dead Sea. A proposed canal from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea along the Jordan-Israel border could restore the Dead Sea to its traditional shape and radically change the commerce of what is now a desert region. In Central Asia and the Caucasus decisions about the laying of oil and natural gas pipelines will have a profound impact on regional economies in the decades ahead. Some countries will benefit while others will not, and this will have political consequences.

Military geography has been strongly influenced over the centuries by developments in technology. Ports and routes that were essential for navies during the age of sail ceased to be important once steamships dominated fleets, and instead coal bunker ports and access to coal supplies became critical. But in less than sixty years oil had replaced coal as the best fuel for ship propulsion and a new set of logistical priorities to provide oil for ships became important. Britain's interest in the Persian Gulf evolved rapidly in the early twentieth century because of its desire to control Mesopotamian oil and not be dependent on the United States. 23 In the 1950s the development of nuclear propulsion for ships virtually eliminated the need for overseas base access for U.S. nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers.

In more recent years, aircraft, missiles, and new types of ground vehicles have radically altered the importance of traditional geographical constraints upon military power projection. Most dramatically, the use of outer space to manage battlefield communications has made former barriers to military operations less significant. On the other hand, equipped with Stinger surface-to-air missiles, Afghani resistance fighters were able to defeat the Soviet army by exploiting terrain and the vulnerability of modern armed forces to wars of attrition.