More warming threats
It could be a matter of national security
May 15, 2007
Last month, 11 retired admirals and generals issued a
report saying that global warming poses real problems for national security. It
recommended that intelligence agencies devote a National Intelligence
Estimate, their premier product, to this issue. Now the House has passed an
intelligence authorization bill with a provision for that estimate. Despite
Republican objections, that approach makes sense. This is not a new idea. The propensity of humans to fight over resources is
as old as the species. And there's no real question that climate change will
bring with it exactly the kinds of extreme weather conditions - flooding,
droughts, and the spread of deserts, to name a few - that exacerbate existing
conflicts and create new ones. So our intelligence efforts and military
strategy must include this element.
The idea received support from the retired officers' report and also from
J.M. McConnell, the director of national intelligence, who told Congress it's
"entirely appropriate" for the National Intelligence Council to do an
assessment of the "geopolitical and security implications" of climate change. Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.) put in a
free-standing bill to require a National Intelligence Estimate. Some of its
provisions ended up in the overall intelligence authorization bill; that
language survived a Republican effort to strip it out. Whether it finally
passes both houses as a separate bill or as part of the authorization bill,
this idea deserves to become national policy.
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