British scientists are predicting global warming will stall over the next few years before returning with record-setting temperatures after 2009.
From 2010, they warn that every year has at least a 50-per-cent chance of being warmer than 1998, the warmest on record.
Researchers at England's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter say their study is based on new computer models for predicting climate change.
The study, appearing in the current issue of the journal Science, is the first to incorporate information about the actual state of the ocean and the atmosphere, rather than the approximate ones most models use.
For the latest models, they added the effects of natural climate changes, such as the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, fluctuations in ocean circulation and anomalies in ocean heat.
In general, climate models have focused on the impact of factors such as solar radiation, atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases.
Researchers believe with the new information, they can now make the most detailed forecast of global warming's impact on weather around the world.
The climate models used by scientists normally cover a century. This one spans 2006 to 2015. Covering nearly a decade is an innovation that will allow more precision, said the study team, led by Doug Smith of the Hadley Centre.
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