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Rudy Giuliani Tuesday October 9, 2007
Giuliani Joins Values Voter Summit
Is Rudy Giuliani reading--and reacting--to God-o-Meter? Just as his GOM reading was on a glide path to 0 for inspiring a third party threat from the Christian Right and for telling religious conservatives to respect him for being honest about his socially liberal positions, America's Mayor cranks it up to 5 by accepting the Family Research Council's invitation to speak at its Washington Values Voters Summit later this month.
Giuliani is the last A-list Republican candidate to accept the invitation from DC's top Christian Right lobby--Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, and John McCain and most second-tier GOPers will be there. How he finishes in the straw poll to be conducted at the summit may shed some light on the Republican primary's big unanswered question: will a chunk of religious conservatives warm to Rudy if he doesn't completely ignore them? A respectable finish in the straw poll would undermine the third party threat, but a washout could revive questions about his viability and provide another boost to rivals like Mike Huckabee.
Filed Under: evangelical, Family Research Council, Giuliani, McCain, Romney, Thompson
posted by Dan Gilgoff @10:10am Permalink 
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Barack Obama Monday October 8, 2007
Obama: How I Came to Jesus
God-o-Meter may have joshed Barack Obama for laying his faith-friendly message on so thick--his campaign is now on a "40 Days of Faith and Family" tour of South Carolina--but make no mistake: Obama is courting religious voters more strenuously than any Democratic White House hopeful in recent memory (with only Hillary Clinton touching him in this cylce). That includes doing what many Democrats in Washington are still afraid of: pursuing the white evangelicals who comprise the GOP's base. Yesterday, Obama gave what sounded to God-o-Meter like a testimonial about his born-again experience before a crowd of nearly 5,000 at the evangelical Redemption World Outreach Center in Greenville, South Carolina (audio here).
Speaking for 15 minutes, Obama characterized his post-college community organizing work in Chicago as "casting about... to see how I could participate in building God’s kingdom" and told how, after his organizing introduced him to various Christian ministries, "I accepted Jesus Christ in my life." This comes after a week in which his campaign hosted “What’s Faith Got to Do With It?” forums in a half-dozen South Carolina counties. If Obama manages to deprive Clinton of the nomination, could it be that that a Democrat would owe his primary victory largely to--gasp!--religious voters? God-o-Meter thinks so, and can't believe this could be true so soon after the 2004 Democratic contenders all but ignored the faith vote.
Filed Under: Democrat, evangelical, Obama, South Carolina
posted by Dan Gilgoff @ 8:04pm Permalink Email This Add to:
Rudy Giuliani Monday October 8, 2007
Third Party Threat Against Giuliani Gets Teeth
Ever since top-tier Christian Right leaders floated a plan to coalesce behind a third party candidate in the event that socially liberal Rudy Giuliani is the GOP nominee, God-o-Meter has been wondering: with all the talk of the declining influence of graying Christian Right titans like James Dobson, how much teeth does that threat really have? Will in-the-pews evangelicals and other conservative rank-and-file Christians follow the decrees of the political activists who purport to speak for them? A new Rasumussen poll suggests that many would.
The poll found that 27-percent of GOP voters say they'd support a third party candidate over Giuliani if the that candidate is backed by "Christian conservative leaders." That would seem a death blow for Giuliani in the general election match-up, when, according to the poll, Hillary Clinton would take 46-percent of the vote, Giuliani would get 30-percent, and the third-party option would pick up 14-percent.
Rasumussen warns that early polls tend to exaggerate the eventual popularity of third party candidates. Still, in a close national election--and God-o-Meter realizes we haven't seen one of those since 2004 and, before that, 2000--even a much smaller defection of pro-life voters could make it a lot easier for Clinton, or any other Democrat, to cruise to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Filed Under: abortion, Clinton, Giuliani, Republican, third party
posted by Dan Gilgoff @10:24am Permalink Email This Add to:
Mitt Romney Friday October 5, 2007
Romney's Mormon Speech is Written (May Need Editing)
God-o-Meter tips its needle to Robert Novak for exposing Romney's "The only people who ask about my Mormonism are reporters" line as the malarkey it is. Novak notes that Romney is asked about his Mormonism by practically every audience he appears before. No surprise there. But Novak also delivers two big new revelations: 1) Romney's much-awaited "Mormon speech" has already been written, though "90 percent of it could still be changed" and 2) Romney has avoided delivering said speech because he's "stalling," having "not determined how to deal with" the Mormon question. Does Novak's news change Romney's God-o-Meter rating? No. Does Novak's past prescience and highly placed sources put God-o-Meter on the lookout for a more robust effort from Team Romney to confront national jitters about a Mormon in the White House? You bet.
Filed Under: Mormonism, Republican, Romney
posted by Dan Gilgoff @ 3:55pm Permalink Email This Add to:
Rudy Giuliani Friday October 5, 2007
Giuliani on Evangelical Threat: Don't Worry, Be Honest
With Focus on the Family's James Dobson going public yesterday with his threat to back a third-party candidate against Rudy Giuliani, the press corps accompanying the ex-Mayor is obsessively asking him about his troubles with the Christian Right. Giuliani appeared to brush them aside: “I don’t worry a lot.... Political pluses and minuses are not one of the things to worry about." Asked whether evangelicals would be as important in the '08 presidential race as in previous cycles, Giuliani turned Yogi Berra philosophical: "You know when we’ll find out who is going to be influential in this year’s election? When it’s over.”
But Giulianis' more telling remark, the one that's become his familiar refrain, appears calibrated for Christian ears. "[M]aybe people of faith can respect someone who is honest with them," he told reporters. "With me, you know what you’re going to get.” After the alleged deceptions of Larry Craig, David Vitter, Mark Foley--God-o-Meter could go on (and on) but its space is limited--could this simple pledge of honesty have special resonance among religious voters? God-o-Meter is not naive; it knows the message's appeal will be somewhat limited. But it also knows that the Giuliani doesn't have to win the evangelical vote to seal up his party's nomination. He just has to not lose it entirely.
Filed Under: David Vitter, Dobson, evangelical, Giuliani, Larry Craig, Mark Foley
posted by Dan Gilgoff @11:23am Permalink Email This Add to:
Barack Obama Friday October 5, 2007
More Subtlety From Obama: "40 Days of Faith and Family"
Fresh from its 10-day Iowa "faith tour", God-o-Meter learns that the Obama campaign is ratcheting up faith-based outreach in South Carolina with a "40 Days of Faith and Family" road show there. Photos from the events, conducted by Obama's faith outreach staff, are being posted on the campaign's People of Faith for Barack Obama page as they happen. Could this be Obama's way of distinguishing himself from Hillary Clinton within the South Carolina's black community, which accounts for half of Democratic primary voters in the Palmetto State? An article in The State notes that 66-percent of South Carolina blacks say their religion means a great deal to them. But The State also notes that Obama split his time last Sunday morning between a black church and a conservative white Baptist congregation. He elicited only polite applause from the Baptists, but God-o-Meter is nonetheless impressed. After all, it asks, would reaction be even that enthusiastic were Hillary to show up one Sunday?
Filed Under: African Americans, Baptist, Democrat, Obama, South Carolina
posted by Dan Gilgoff @ 1:08am Permalink Email This Add to:
Rudy Giuliani Thursday October 4, 2007
Giuliani to Christian Right: At Least I'm Honest
Rudy Giuliani has put God-o-Meter in a tight spot. On one hand, this morning’s New York Times reports that the pro-choice, pro-gay rights ex-mayor has been reaching out to more than a dozen key evangelical figures, trying to allay fears about his liberal social issue stances. That would seem to nudge God-o-Meter’s needle up. On the other hand, Giuliani is telling them that he won’t change his views—even as he pledges to appoint conservative judges and to leave current abortion restrictions alone—and that they should respect him for at least being forthright with them. That would seem to jerk God-o-Meter’s needle down.
God-o-Meter has decided on the latter course because A) it has seen almost no evidence that Giuliani is aggressively courting Christian Right leaders (that lack of evidence was corroborated yesterday in The Hill) and B) his apparent overtures to conservative Christian figures don't seem to be getting him anywhere. To wit: The Associated Press has St. Louis Archbishop Raymond Burke saying that he'd deny Giuliani the Eucharist because of his support for abortion rights. Focus on the Family's James Dobson, for his part, is reaffirming his intention to back a third-party candidate should Giuliani win the nomination. The Giuliani strategy isn't about reaching out to such figures--it's about hoping that they matter a lot less than they used to.
Filed Under: abortion, Catholocism, Dobson, Eucharist, Giuliani, Republican
posted by Dan Gilgoff @ 5:11pm Permalink Email This Add to:
Mike Huckabee Wednesday October 3, 2007
Huckabee Seals Up More Christian Right Support
As possible Republican contenders like Newt Gingrich have stayed out of the presidential race and as Fred Thompson has declined to voice clear support for causes like a constitutional ban on gay marriage and 2005’s Terri Schiavo congressional intervention, God-o-Meter has learned that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is picking up new support among Christian Right activists. God-o-Meter has learned that prominent evangelical conservatives like Mat Staver, chairman of Liberty Council, and author and radio host Janet Folger have contacted Huckabee to announce that they will endorse him.
Many of the social conservatives galvanizing around Huckabee, including Staver, are treating Mitt Romney as their second choice, vowing to support him should the GOP nomination battle turn into a fight between Romney and ex-New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
“I was waiting to see what Thompson would do, but he opposed the Federal Marriage Amendment and frankly hasn’t done anything to excite the conservative base,” Staver says. “Everybody likes Huckabee, but the big question was whether he could win. Now people think if they can get behind him, he can win.”
At a gathering of religious conservatives last weekend in Salt Lake City under the auspices of the secretive Council for National Policy, Staver and Folger made a presentation on Huckabee’s behalf. They urged evangelical leaders to coalesce around Huckabee rather than back a rival plan to draft a third-party candidate in the event that Giuliani, an enemy of the Christian Right because of past support for abortion right and gay rights, clinch the Republican nomination.
“Support for Romney’s leveled off and Fred Thompson’s flip-flop on the marriage amendment to the U.S. Constitution took the wind out of his sails,” says a prominent social conservative who attended the Council for National Policy meeting. “Of late, Huckabee has done well.”
Among those at the session where both the Huckabee and the third-party strategies were discussed was Focus on the Family founder James Dobson, perhaps the country’s most influential social conservative, who has ruled out supporting Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson, but has left the door open to a Romney or Huckabee endorsement.
Many Christian conservative activists said the turning points for Huckabee were his second place finish in August’s Ames straw poll and his performance at last month’s “Values Voters” debate in Florida. Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuiani, and John McCain all declined to appear at the forum.
“Huckabee cleaned house at the Values Voter debate,” says Folger, referring to a straw poll that night in which Huckabee won 63-percent of the vote.
Phil Burress, an evangelical activist in Ohio who led the successful charge to ban same-sex marriage in his state in the 2004 election, says he is still undecided but that he is “leaning” toward Huckabee.
“I was in the Thompson camp until he came up with this concoction of every state having its own marriage laws,” says Burress. “The fact that he wasn’t gaining in the polls or raising much money has certainly been the drawback of Huckabee till now… he has a track record of always being solid on the family issues.”
Filed Under: Christian Right, Huckabee, Republican
posted by Dan Gilgoff @ 8:36pm Permalink Email This Add to:
Mitt Romney Wednesday October 3, 2007
Romney Gets No Love From Protestant Churchgoers
If a Republican candidate's God-o-Meter rating is way up high, it must mean he's getting the job done, right? Wrong. Case in point: a new analysis from the Gallup Poll shows that Mitt Romney's strong Mormon identification (keeping God-o-Meter's needle up) continues to be a drag among a constituency he sorely needs to win the GOP nomination: churchgoing Protestants. Gallup shows Romney with a net favorability rating of +3 among churchgoing Protestants, with 32-percent holding a favorable opinion of him and 29-percent holding an unfavorable one. Compare that to socially liberal Rudy Giuliani's +19 favorability rating or Fred Thompson's +25 rating among the same voters--not to mention Barack Obama's +10 rating--and the magnitude of Romney's problem becomes as clear as a God-o-Meter reading.
"Even if Romney eventually wins the Iowa caucus or the New Hampshire primary," Gallup notes, "his candidacy could stall in the subsequent southern state primaries and caucuses unless he can improve his standing among religious Protestants."
To the extent that a silver lining exists for Romney, it's that a plurality of churchgoing Protestants--39-percent--have no opinion of him. He'll have to do quite a sales job among those undecideds to make it to the general. But God-o-Meter must note that a certain Democratic frontrunner also has her work cut out for her: Hillary Clinton has a net favorability rating of -11-percent (yes, that's negative eleven percent) among Protestant churchgoers, with only 3-percent undecided. She may not need to change too many Protestant minds to get her party's primary nod. But the general election could be another story.
Filed Under: Mormonism, poll, Protestants, Romney
posted by Dan Gilgoff @11:33am Permalink Email This Add to:
Rudy Giuliani Monday October 1, 2007
Dobson & Co. Mull 3rd-Party Candidate
As January's Iowa caucuses inch ever closer, Focus on the Family's James Dobson is in takedown mode. Just over a week ago, God-o-Meter watched him throw a wet blanket on Fred Thompson. This weekend, he reportedly drove 600 miles from Focus's Colorado Springs headquarters to Salt Lake City to promote the idea that the Christian Right should consider pushing a third-party candidate at a top-secret gathering of conservative Christian activists. Dobson and others promoted the plan as a contingency should the pro-choice, pro-gay rights Rudy Giuliani clinch the GOP presidential nomination. Sure, polls show rank-and-file evangelicals backing Giuliani for the moment. But Dobson may be looking to teach the GOP a lesson on Election Day 2008 by dampening evangelical turnout enough to deprive Giuliani of the White House. And God-o-Meter has learned that Dobson wasn't the only VIP at this weekend's conservative confab in Salt Lake. Mitt Romney showed up, too, trying to capitalize on continuing evangelical disillusionment over the GOP field by making another pitch for their support.
Filed Under: Dobson, Giuliani, Romney
posted by Dan Gilgoff @11:53pm Permalink Email This Add to:
About Beliefnet: God-o-Meter
The God-o-Meter (pronounced Gah-DOM-meter) scientifically measures factors such as rate of God-talk, effectiveness—saying God wants a capital gains tax cut doesn't guarantee a high rating—and other top-secret criteria. Click a candidate's head to get his or her latest God-o-Meter reading and blog post. And check back often. With so much happening on the campaign trail, God-o-Meter is constantly recalibrating!
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