Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

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Pledged Delegate margins in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. Obama won the delegate count in the darkest purple states by the largest margins, while Clinton won the delegate count in the darkest green states by the largest margins. They tied in MO and NH.

Popular Vote margins in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. The darkest purple states voted for Obama by the largest margins, while the darkest green states voted for Clinton by the largest margins. (Popular vote winners and delegate winners differ in four states: NH, NV, MO, and TX.)

The 2008 Democratic primaries are the selection process by which members of the United States Democratic Party choose their candidate for the 2008 U.S. Presidential election. The Democratic candidate for President will be selected through a series of primaries and caucuses culminating in the 2008 Democratic National Convention scheduled from Monday, August 25, through Thursday, August 28, 2008, in Denver, Colorado.

In order to secure the nomination at the convention, a candidate must receive at least 2,023½ votes from delegates (a simple majority of the 4,046 delegate votes, bearing in mind half-votes from Democrats Abroad).

[edit] Candidates and results

Main articles: United States Democratic presidential candidates, 2008 and Results of the 2008 Democratic Party presidential primaries

Notes for the following table:

• Delegate counts:
  • The pledged delegate estimates come from the sum of the states listed in the Chronicle section later in this article
  • The source for superdelegate estimates is the 2008 Democratic Convention Watch blog^[1]
• Ordering:
  • The candidates are ordered by pledged delegate count and then alphabetically by last name
  • To re-sort this table, click on the double-arrow symbol at the top of a column

Candidate	Current or Recent Office	Home State	Pledged Delegate Vote Estimate[2]	Superdelegate Vote Estimate[1]	Total Vote Estimate	Campaign Status	Links
Obama, BarackBarack Obama	U.S. Senator	Illinois	1,415½ 53%	221 47%	1,636½ 52%	Current	campaign article campaign website
Clinton, HillaryHillary Clinton	U.S. Senator	New York	1,253½ 47%	245 53%	1,498½ 48%	Current	campaign article campaign website
Edwards, JohnJohn Edwards	Former U.S. Senator	North Carolina	18 <1%	0	18 <1%	Suspended January 30, 2008	campaign article campaign website
Biden, JoeJoe Biden	U.S. Senator	Delaware	0	0	0	Withdrew January 3, 2008	campaign article campaign website
Dodd, ChristopherChris Dodd	U.S. Senator	Connecticut	0	0	0	Withdrew January 3, 2008 Endorsed Obama February 26, 2008	campaign article campaign website
Gravel, MikeMike Gravel	Former U.S. Senator	Alaska	0	0	0	Endorsed Green Party candidate Jesse Johnson March 13, 2008,[3][4] joined Libertarian Party on March 25, 2008[5]	campaign article campaign website
Kucinich, DennisDennis Kucinich	U.S. Representative	Ohio	0	0	0	Withdrew January 23, 2008	campaign article campaign website
Richardson, BillBill Richardson	Governor	New Mexico	0	0	0	Withdrew January 10, 2008 Endorsed Obama March 21, 2008	campaign article campaign website

[edit] Delegate system

Delegates are the people who will decide the nomination at the Democratic National Convention. Delegates from the fifty US states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico have a single vote each, while some delegates from American Samoa, the Virgin Islands, Guam and Democrats Abroad have half a vote each. Thus, the total number of delegates is slightly higher than the total number of available delegate votes (4,046).^[6]

[edit] Pledged delegates

Democratic candidates campaign for the nomination in a series of primary elections and caucus events. The results from these primaries and caucuses determine the number of pledged delegates committed to vote for each candidate at the Democratic National Convention. Pledged delegates are allocated to each of the fifty US states following two main criteria: (1) the proportion of votes each state gave to the Democratic candidate in the last three presidential elections, and (2) the percentage of votes each state has in the United States Electoral College. In addition, fixed numbers of delegates are allocated to the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Democrats Abroad under the party's Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention.^[7] Pledged delegates reflect the preferences of voters but are not actually legally bound to vote for the candidate they represent. However, since candidates may remove delegates who they feel may be disloyal, the delegates generally vote as pledged.^[8] In 2008, a total of 3,253 pledged delegate votes will be awarded through the primaries and caucuses.

[edit] Superdelegates

Main article: Democratic Party (United States) superdelegates, 2008

There are currently a total of 793 unpledged delegates (known as superdelegates) who are free to vote for any candidate at the convention. Superdelegate votes are given equal weight to the votes of pledged delegates. Superdelegates are members of the United States House of Representatives and Senate, state and territorial governors, members of the Democratic National Committee, distinguished party leaders, and add-on delegates selected by the state parties. They represent over 19 percent of the total 4,046 delegates.

The number and composition of superdelegates can change right up to the start of the Democratic National Convention. The total number of superdelegate votes at the start of the primary season in October 2007 stood at 850. Various events such as deaths, elections, and disqualifications have brought the total to its current state. Further changes are likely, given that Democrats may win any of four currently open seats in Congress during special elections scheduled prior to the Convention and that 55 currently unseated Florida and Michigan superdelegates may be seated.

While officially uncommitted until the convention, the superdelegates may publicly endorse a candidate at any time. The presidential candidates compete heavily for these endorsements. News organizations survey the superdelegates periodically throughout the election season and try to calculate how many have committed to each of the candidates. The media often include these superdelegate estimates in their reporting on the race, leading to differing delegate counts from various news sources.

[edit] Delegate selection rules

Under the Democratic Party's Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention,^[9] delegates are awarded by proportional representation, with a minimum 15% threshold required in order to receive delegates. Each state party is required to publish its own state level delegate selection plan, indicating how the state will select delegates at the congressional and statewide level, how the delegation will implement the party's affirmative action policy, and how the delegation will ensure an equal balance between women and men. Those plans were adopted at state conventions and forwarded to the national party in mid-2007.

In most state caucuses, the viability threshold must be met at each level in the process, from the precinct level upwards. This puts enormous pressure on the remaining candidates to gain the support of voters whose chosen candidates fall below the 15% mark.^[10][11] The focus on viability is designed to weed out small, divisive factions from gaining delegates to disrupt the national convention. However, this can result in candidates gaining viability in some precincts but not in others, and a complicated "caucus math" is required to allocate delegates to the county and state conventions for each precinct.^[12] In the primaries, the viability threshold is set based on statewide and congressional district votes. At-large and PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) delegates are allocated based on statewide votes, while district-level delegates are allocated by district votes.^[13]

Although journalists at several news outlets^[14][15] have indicated that Puerto Rico's 63 delegates will all be awarded to a single candidate rather than proportionally, the party's Delegate Selection Plan states that delegates are to be allocated in a manner similar to other state caucuses.^[16] The Washington Post Fact Checker has determined that the "winner take all" Puerto Rican primary is a myth.^[17] The misconception is derived from the fact that by the time Puerto Rico votes, late in the primary season, there is often only one candidate still on the ballot.

[edit] Reporting delegate totals

There is no easy answer to the question, What's the current count? Each of the major news organizations keeps a count of delegate votes, while the campaigns keep their own numbers. Rarely do these totals coincide. Some online sources use an aggregate of sources, leading to even more confusion in delegate vote totals. We may not know the actual result until the votes are cast at the Democratic National Convention.

There are several reasons for this discrepancy. First, some news sources include only pledged delegates in their total count, while others include superdelegates. Second, estimates of superdelegate votes are unreliable and are subject to change. Third, pledged delegates in many states are selected at county or state conventions late in the process; thus, the initial primary and caucus results provide only a projection of pledged delegates, highlighted by the discrepancies with the Iowa county convention results. Fourth, in the days after an election, results in individual precincts may be delayed, and news organizations may project the winners of those precincts based on statistical analysis or may wait for confirmed results. The Democratic nominating process is a byzantine system that has evolved over time, and in close races, it can be difficult under the current system to know who is leading in the delegate count.^[18]

This article uses pledged delegate estimates from the respective Wikipedia articles of each state primary or caucus. Reliable sources appropriate to each state's individual process are found in those articles. The Not Yet Assigned columns in the tables below reflect pledged delegates that these sources have not yet allocated to any candidates. For superdelegate vote estimates, this article uses the Democratic Convention Watch blog.^[1] A periodically updated article on the blog also provides a comparison of the delegate totals from several different sources (CBS, CNN, NBC, Associated Press, and The Green Papers).

[edit] Brokered convention

In most modern United States presidential primaries, the Democratic nominee is known well in advance of the official nomination at the Democratic National Convention. Typically, a presumptive nominee emerges when one candidate receives a majority of the available pledged delegates and superdelegates, and all other candidates drop out of the race.

If no candidate receives a clear majority of delegates, the party may head into the convention without a nominee. This is known as a brokered convention. The nominee is then determined by a series of floor votes at the convention, which may be preceded by negotiations among the party leaders and candidates. Pledged delegates and superdelegates may switch their support, and negotiations continue until one candidate receives a majority of votes. The last brokered Democratic convention was in 1952.

Sometimes the term “brokered convention” is used loosely to refer to any process by which party leaders negotiate among themselves to bring an end to the nominating process. For example, in 2008, if neither of the candidates were to receive a majority of delegates by the final primaries on June 3, party leaders could step in to broker a deal by which superdelegates could come together to provide clear support for a candidate before the August 25 convention.

[edit] Chronicle

See also: Results of the 2008 Democratic Party presidential primaries, Barack Obama presidential campaign, 2008, and Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2008

Notes for the tables in this section:

• Votes to the Convention column:
  • The source for delegation sizes is the Democratic National Committee's official Call for the 2008 Democratic National Convention.^[19] Specific sources are present for Florida and Michigan. Very recent changes not already in the official source are indicated by the footnotes.
• Pledged Delegate Votes Estimate column:
  • The source is each state's primary or caucus article. Click on the Specific Election (link) column to see the sources used in those articles.
  • The candidate with the highest popular vote is highlighted. Note that in some cases, this may be different than the candidate with the greatest number of delegates.

[edit] Early campaigning

The race for the 2008 presidential nomination began in earnest after the 2006 midterm elections. Between November 2006 and February 2007, eight major candidates opened their campaigns—Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, and Tom Vilsack—joining Mike Gravel, who had announced his candidacy in April 2006. Potential candidates John Kerry, Al Gore, Russ Feingold, Evan Bayh, Tom Daschle, Wesley Clark, Mark Warner, and Al Sharpton reportedly considered running but ultimately declined to seek the nomination. Vilsack dropped out in February 2007.

In the first three months of 2007, Clinton and Obama raised more than $20 million each and Edwards raised more than $12 million.^[20] The three candidates quickly became the frontrunners for the nomination,^[21] a status they held all the way through the end of 2007. At the end of the year, December 31, Clinton held a substantial lead in superdelegates, and she was leading in the national polls with 42% of likely voters, over Obama, 23%, and Edwards, 16%.^[22] However, Edwards and Obama remained close in state polls for the early contests, including the Iowa caucuses, where the final polling average had Obama leading narrowly, 31%, over Clinton, 30%, Edwards, 26%, Biden, 5%, and Richardson, 5%.^[23]

[edit] January 2008

Following tradition, the 2008 primary calendar began with the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. The Nevada caucus and the South Carolina primary were the third and fourth contests sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee. Under the national committee's rules, no state was allowed to hold primaries or caucuses before February 5 with the exceptions of these four states.^[24] Michigan and Florida also held early primaries, but under the existing rules, their delegates will not be seated and will not vote at the convention.

The following table shows the pledged delegate votes awarded in the first four contests recognized by the DNC.

Obama won the Iowa caucuses with 38% of the vote, over Edwards, 30%, and Clinton, 29%. His victory brought him to national prominence as many voters tuned in to the race for the first time. In a speech that evening, he defined change as the primary theme of his campaign and said, "On this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn't do."^[28] The delegate count was virtually tied, but Clinton’s surprising third-place finish in the popular vote damaged her image as the "inevitable" nominee.^[29] However, she remained upbeat, saying "This race begins tonight and ends when Democrats throughout America have their say. Our campaign was built for a marathon."^[29] The following day, reports described "panic" among some Clinton donors,^[30][31] and rumors of a staff shake-up began to circulate.^[32] Biden and Dodd withdrew from the race.

After Obama's upset win in Iowa, it appeared to many political observers that he would ride a wave of momentum through the New Hampshire primaries and then onward to win the Democratic nomination. Elegies were published on the Clinton campaign,^[33] as Obama surged to a roughly 10-point lead in the New Hampshire polls.^[34] However, the race turned quickly in the days before the primary, and the polls were slow to register a reversal toward Clinton. On January 5, Edwards sided with Obama against Clinton in a televised debate.^[35] In one noted exchange, Edwards said that Clinton could not bring about change, while he and Obama could: "Any time you speak out powerfully for change, the forces for status quo attack." Clinton passionately retorted, "Making change is not about what you believe; it's not about a speech you make. It's about working hard. I'm not just running on a promise for change. I'm running on 35 years of change. What we need is somebody who can deliver change. We don't need to be raising false hopes."^[36] It came to be seen as the defining statement for her candidacy. The morning before the primary, Clinton became "visibly emotional" in response to a friendly question from a voter.^[37] Video of the moment was replayed on cable news television throughout the day, accompanied by pundit commentary that ranged from sympathetic to callous in tone. Voters rallied to Clinton's defense, and she won a surprising three-percent victory over Obama in the popular vote. They tied in the delegate count. Richardson withdrew from the race on January 10.

Momentum shifted in Clinton's favor, and she won the popular vote in the Nevada caucuses eleven days later, despite Obama's endorsement from the influential Culinary Workers Union. However, Obama ran strongly in rural areas throughout the state and beat Clinton in the delegate count. Edwards's support collapsed in Nevada, as voters coalesced around the two apparent frontrunners. Dennis Kucinich withdrew from the race. In the following week, issues of race came to the fore as campaigning began for the South Carolina primary, the first to feature a large proportion of African Americans in the Democratic electorate. Behind in the state polls, Hillary Clinton left to campaign in some Super Tuesday states,^[38] while her husband, former president Bill Clinton, stayed in South Carolina and engaged in a series of exchanges with Obama.^[39] CBS News reported, "By injecting himself into the Democratic primary campaign with a series of inflammatory and negative statements, Bill Clinton may have helped his wife's presidential hopes in the long term but at the cost of his reputation with a group of voters [African Americans] that have long been one of his strongest bases of political support."^[40] Obama won by a more than two-to-one margin over Clinton, gaining 55 percent of the vote to her 27 percent and Edwards's 18 percent.^[41] The day of the primary, Bill Clinton compared Obama's expected win to Jesse Jackson's victory in the 1988 South Carolina primary. His comments were widely criticized as an apparent attempt to dismiss the primary results and marginalize Obama by implying that he was "the black candidate."^[42] The momentum generated by Obama's larger-than-expected win in South Carolina was deflated somewhat by the win Clinton claimed in the nullifed Florida primary the following week. John Edwards suspended his candidacy on January 30, leaving Obama and Clinton in a head-to-head match-up. Neither candidate had a clear advantage heading into the Super Tuesday primaries, with 23 states and territories and 1,681 delegates at stake and more media attention than any primary election day in American history.

[edit] Nullified primaries

Main articles: Florida Democratic primary, 2008 and Michigan Democratic primary, 2008

In August 2006, the Democratic National Committee adopted a proposal by its Rules and Bylaws Committee stating that only the four states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina would be permitted to hold primaries or caucuses before February 5, 2008.^[43]

In May 2007, the Florida Legislature passed a bill that moved the date of the state's primary to January 29, 2008, setting up a confrontation with the DNC.^[44] This caused a chain reaction that moved many other states' primaries and caucuses to earlier dates. In response, the DNC ruled that Florida's 185 pledged delegates and 26 superdelegates would not be seated at the Democratic National Convention, or, if seated, would not be able to vote.^[45] In October 2007, Democrats from Florida's congressional delegation filed a federal lawsuit against the DNC to force a recognition of its delegates, but the suit was unsuccessful.^[46][43] The presidential candidates promised not to campaign in Florida.

Meanwhile, Michigan moved its primary to January 15, 2008, also in violation of party rules. In October 2007, Obama, Richardson, Biden, and Edwards withdrew their names from the Michigan primary ballot, under pressure from the DNC and voters in Iowa and New Hampshire.^[47] Kucinich unsuccessfully sought to remove his name from the ballot,^[48] whereas Clinton and Dodd opted to remain on the ballot.^[49] In December 2007, the DNC ruled that Michigan’s 128 pledged delegates and 29 superdelegates would not count in the nominating contest unless it were held on a later date.^[50] The Michigan Democratic party responded with a press release noting that the primary would proceed with Clinton, Dodd, Gravel, and Kucinich on the ballot. Supporters of Biden, Edwards, Richardson, and Obama were urged to vote "uncommitted" instead of writing in their candidates’ names because write-in votes for those candidates would not be counted.^[51]

None of the top candidates campaigned in Florida or Michigan. The events were described in the media as "beauty contests,"^[56][57] and voter turnout in both states was relatively low when compared with record-high turnout in other states.^[58] Nevertheless, Clinton claimed wins in Florida and Michigan, and she flew to Fort Lauderdale on the night of the Florida election to thank supporters for what she called a "tremendous victory."^[59] If the Florida results were to stand, Clinton would receive a net delegate gain of 38 pledged delegates. If the Michigan results were to stand and the “uncommitted” delegates awarded to Obama, Clinton would receive a net delegate gain of 18 pledged delegates.

As the primaries continued, various groups tried to negotiate a resolution to the standoff between the DNC and the state parties. The Clinton campaign advocated first for the results to stand and then for a new round of voting to take place in Michigan and Florida, while the Obama campaign deferred the matter to the DNC, while expressing a wish that the delegations be seated in some form.^[60][61] On all sides, Democrats worried that a failure to resolve the problem could lead to a rules or credential fight at the convention and low Democratic turnout in the general election in November.^[56]

[edit] Super Tuesday

Main article: Super Tuesday (2008)

Traditionally, the Tuesday on which the greatest number of states hold primary elections is known as Super Tuesday. In 2007, many states moved their primaries or caucuses early in the calendar to have greater influence over the race. As February 5 was the earliest date allowed by the Democratic National Committee, 23 states and territories moved their elections to that date. This year's Super Tuesday became the date of the nation's first quasi-national primary. It was dubbed "Super Duper Tuesday"^[62] or "Tsunami Tuesday,"^[63] among other names.

After Obama's win in South Carolina on January 26, he received high-profile endorsements from Caroline Kennedy, daughter of former President John F. Kennedy,^[64] as well as Senator Ted Kennedy, the former President's brother.^[65] Ted Kennedy's endorsement was considered "the biggest Democratic endorsement Obama could possibly get short of Bill Clinton or Al Gore."^[66] On January 31, Obama and Clinton met for the first time in a one-on-one debate, and they struck a friendly tone, seeking to put the racially-charged comments of the previous week behind them.^[67] Obama surged nationally in the polls and held campaign rallies that drew audiences of more than 15,000 people in several states.^[68][69][70]

A total of 1,681 pledged delegate votes were at stake in the states that voted on February 5. The following table shows the pledged delegate votes awarded in the Super Tuesday states.

On election night, both Obama and Clinton claimed victories. In the popular vote, Obama won 13 states and territories to Clinton's 10, including states like Idaho and Georgia where he won by very wide margins. His wins in Connecticut and Missouri were considered upsets. However, Clinton won the large electoral prizes of California and Massachusetts, where some analysts had expected the Kennedy endorsements might carry Obama to victory. Although Obama gained significant ground from where he was polling in mid-January, it was not enough to close the gap in those states. In exit polls, Obama gained the overwhelming support of African American voters, and he strengthened his base among college-educated voters and voters younger than 45. Clinton found significant support among white women, Latinos, and voters over the age of 65. Obama ran strongest in caucus states, Rocky Mountain states, the South and the Midwest. Clinton ran strongest in the Northeast, the Southwest, and the states adjacent to Arkansas, where she served as first lady. When the delegate counting was finished, Obama won an estimated 847 pledged delegates to Clinton's 834. Early in the primary season, many observers had predicted that the nomination would be over after Super Tuesday, but the general verdict on election night was that the candidates had drawn to a virtual tie and that the race for the Democratic presidential nomination would not likely be settled for a month, at least.^[71]

[edit] February

In the following week, it became clear that a "tie" on Super Tuesday left Obama better positioned for the upcoming contests in February, where the demographics of several large states seemed to favor him.^[72] The day after Super Tuesday, February 6, Clinton announced that she had personally loaned her campaign $5 million in January.^[71] The news came as a surprise and set off another round of news stories about Clinton donors and supporters concerned about the campaign's strategy. It was particularly striking in contrast to Obama's announcement that he had raised a record-high $32 million in January, tapping 170,000 new contributors.^[73] It became clear that Obama's financial advantage had allowed him to organize and compete in a broader set of states on Super Tuesday, an advantage which was likely to continue in the coming weeks and months. Clinton's supporters responded by raising $6 million online in 36 hours, but Obama's campaign upped the ante, announcing their own total of $7.5 million in 36 hours and starting a new goal of reaching 500,000 new contributors in 2008 by the end of February.^[74]

As expected, Obama swept the three nominating events on February 9, which were thought to favor him based on the results in similar states that had voted previously. He then scored a convincing win in Maine, where Clinton had hoped to hold her ground.^[77] The same day, Clinton's campaign announced the resignation of campaign advisor Patty Solis Doyle. Obama's momentum carried through the following week, as he scored large delegate gains in the Potomac Primaries, taking the lead in the nationwide popular vote, even under the projection most favorable to Clinton, with Florida and Michigan included. NBC News declared him "Mr. Frontrunner" on February 13.^[78] Clinton attempted a comeback win in the demographically more favorable state of Wisconsin, but Obama won again by a larger margin than expected. In a span of 11 days, he swept 11 contests and extended his pledged delegate lead by 120. At the end of the month, Obama had 1,192 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1,035. He also began to close the gap in superdelegates, although Clinton still led among superdelegates, 240 to 191.^[79] Clinton's campaign tried to downplay the results of the February contests, and the candidate refused to acknowledge the losses in her speeches on election nights. Her advisers acknowledged that she would need big wins in the upcoming states to turn the race around.

[edit] March

With four states and 370 delegates at stake, March 4 was dubbed "Mini-Super Tuesday" or "Super Tuesday 2.0." Just as Obama had been favored in the mid-February states, Clinton was favored in Ohio, with its high proportion of working-class white voters and older voters, and Texas, with its high proportion of Latino voters. Exit polls in previous states showed that all three groups were a part of Clinton's base. In mid-February, Clinton held a 10-point lead in Texas and a 20-point lead in Ohio in RealClearPolitics polling averages.^[80] The Clinton campaign set its sights on the Ohio-Texas "firewall," counting on a clear March 4 win to change the narrative and turn around her campaign for the nomination. Meanwhile, Obama hoped to score a win in one or both states that might be enough to knock Clinton out of the race. By February 25, they were in a statistical dead heat in Texas, according to a CNN poll.^[81]

In the last week of February, Clinton's campaign seemed to be back on its feet. A Saturday Night Live sketch mocked the media for its supposedly biased coverage in favor of Obama, and Clinton used the sketch to argue that Obama had not received proper scrutiny. The media responded by taking a more critical look at Obama's campaign.^[82] Meanwhile, Obama supporter and former fundraiser Tony Rezko went on trial in a political corruption case in Chicago. While Obama was not implicated, questions remained about how forthcoming he had been about his relationship with Rezko.^[82] Controversy also erupted when it was reported in the Canadian press that Obama economic advisor Austan Goolsbee had privately offered assurances that Obama's anti-NAFTA rhetoric on the campaign trail was exaggerated. Obama's campaign denied the substance of the report, but their response was muddled by a series of missteps and may have hurt the candidate's standing with Ohio voters.^[83] Clinton launched a five-point attack on Obama's qualifications, "unleashing what one Clinton aide called a 'kitchen sink' fusillade," according to the New York Times.^[84] Perhaps the most damaging component was a campaign ad that aired in Texas, using the imagery of the White House "red phone" to suggest that Obama would not be prepared to handle a crisis as commander-in-chief when a phone call comes in to the White House at 3 a.m. The ad drew significant media attention in the four days before the election.^[85]

On election night, Clinton scored convincing wins in Ohio and Rhode Island. She narrowly won the Texas primary, while losing the Texas caucus. She pitched her wins that night as a comeback: "For everyone here in Ohio and across America who's ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out, and for everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up, and for everyone who works hard and never gives up, this one is for you."^[88]

Obama focused on the "delegate math." He won the total delegate count in Texas, and he stayed close to Clinton on the delegate count in Ohio. "No matter what happens tonight," he said, "we have nearly the same delegate lead that we did this morning, and we are on our way to winning this nomination."^[89] After winning contests in Wyoming and Mississippi the following week, Obama erased Clinton's March 4 gains. On March 15, he increased his lead by 10 delegates at the Iowa county conventions, when former supporters of withdrawn candidates switched their support to him.

After the March contests, the Democratic race entered a six-week period with no upcoming contests until April 22. As the campaigns settled in for the long haul, advisors for both candidates escalated their rhetoric and stepped up attacks in their daily conference calls. News reports described the tenor as increasingly "rancorous" and "vitriolic."^[90][91]

On March 14, clips of controversial sermons from Obama's former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, resurfaced on YouTube and received heavy airtime on cable news television. Among other things, Wright said, "God damn America for treating our citizens as less than human. God damn America for as long as she acts like she is God and she is supreme." Four days later, Obama responded to the controversy in a 37-minute speech, speaking openly about race and religion in the United States. He denounced Wright's remarks while refusing to condemn the pastor himself, and he attempted to pivot from the immediate circumstances to address the larger theme of "A More Perfect Union." The speech was regarded as "breathtakingly unconventional" in its political strategy and tone,^[92] and it received generally positive reviews in the press. The New York Times weighed in with an editorial: "Senator Barack Obama, who has not faced such tests of character this year, faced one on Tuesday. It is hard to imagine how he could have handled it better."^[93] Ten days later, the speech had been watched at least 3.4 million times on YouTube.^[94]

On March 21, former primary candidate Bill Richardson endorsed Barack Obama, a move that drew intense criticism from Clinton allies, including James Carville's Eastertime comparison of Richardson with Judas Iscariot.^[95]

[edit] April and beyond

Democrats vote in Washington's 43rd Legislative District Caucus, April 5, 2008

As the race continues to Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina, many observers have concluded that Clinton has little chance to overcome Obama's lead in pledged delegates.^[96] Even if Clinton succeeds in changing the dynamics of the race, there are not enough pledged delegates remaining for her to catch up under most realistic scenarios.^[97] Some analysts believe Clinton could still win the nomination by raising doubts about Obama’s electability, fighting for Michigan and Florida delegates to be seated at the convention, and convincing superdelegates to support her despite her expected loss in the pledged delegate vote.^[98] However, the window of opportunity for re-votes in Michigan and Florida appears to have closed,^[97] and House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who will chair the Democratic National Convention, has said that it would be harmful to the party if superdelegates were to overturn the result of the pledged delegate vote.^[99] Clinton may appeal to the DNC's credential committee in July to have the Michigan and Florida delegations seated in some form, but even under a favorable seating arrangement, her net gain of 56 pledged delegates would not be enough to overcome Obama's current lead of 162 pledged delegates.^[100] She would still need to win the remaining contests by a very wide margin or rely on superdelegates to win the nomination.

Complicating the equation for Democrats, presidential candidate John McCain clinched the Republican nomination on March 4. While Obama and Clinton are engaged with the Democratic primary, McCain is free to define his candidacy for the general election largely unchallenged. Some Democrats have expressed concern that Clinton is staying in the race when they feel she has little chance to win the nomination, but a much greater chance to damage Obama's candidacy in the general election. However, others have defended Clinton's right to continue on to Pennsylvania, arguing that a sustained campaign is good for the Democratic Party and that Clinton still has a realistic shot at the nomination.^[101]

The following table shows the pledged delegates available in the states yet to vote. Additional voting is possible but unlikely in Florida, subject to the agreement of the state party, state legislature, the DNC, and the two campaigns.^[102] There will be no re-vote in Michigan. A proposal for a June 3 re-vote failed in the state legislature, and the Michigan Democratic Party has declared all other proposals "not practical".^[103]

[edit] Voter turnout

Democratic primary turnout exceeded Republican turnout in most states through March 4 (when John McCain clinched the Republican nomination). The six exceptions were Arizona, McCain's home state; Florida and Michigan, where Democratic primaries were nullified; and Alabama, Alaska, and Utah, where Democratic voter registration is extremely low.

Voter turnout was at historically high levels in the 2008 primaries and caucuses, with many contests setting all-time records for turnout. Voter turnout on Super Tuesday was at 27% of eligible citizens, breaking the previous record of 25.9% set in 1972.^[106] Turnout was higher among Democrats than Republicans, with Democratic turnout surpassing Republican turnout even in traditionally red states where the number of registered Democrats is proportionally low.^[107] Many states reported high levels of Democratic voter registration in the weeks before primaries.^[108] From January 3 through February 5, Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout, 19.1 million to 13.1 million.^[109]

In the first five weeks of 2008, 'voter turnout' was a phrase that was used almost exclusively in connection with the Democratic Party. There were routine stories of precincts running short on ballots, poll hours being extended, and voters packing haunch to paunch inside community centers and local churches. Crowd sizes were described, often with growing awe, as 'staggering,' 'record breaking,' or 'unprecedented.'

– Kent Garber, U.S. News & World Report^[109]

The high Democratic turnout has been attributed to several factors:^[110][111]

• media interest and voter excitement generated by the first viable African American and female presidential contenders.
• the compressed primary calendar, which has given voters in more states an opportunity to participate in the nomination.
• the first close nomination race since 1992 on the Democratic side.
• dissatisfaction with presidential candidates on the Republican side and the early emergence of John McCain as the presumptive nominee.
• open primaries in some states, which have allowed Republicans and independent voters to participate in Democratic contests.
• dissatisfaction with President George W. Bush and Iraq War policy.

[edit] Detailed results

Main article: Results of the 2008 Democratic Party presidential primaries

[edit] Opinion polling

Main articles: Statewide opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2008 and Nationwide opinion polling for the Democratic Party 2008 presidential candidates

[edit] See also

• Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

[edit] Notes and references

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Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

v • d • e United States presidential elections

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