Bush Finds WMDs in Iraq, Umm, or WMHs

By Robert Dreyfuss

President Bush finally found the long-missing Weapons of Mass Humiliation in Iraq. Iraqis, millions of them, are wearing them on their feet. Not exactly WMDs, but WMHs will have to do.

Unfortunately, Bush discovered the WMHs when a pair of them sailed past his head at a press conference in Baghdad. The hurler, Muntader al-Zaidi, is already a hero in Iraq, and beyond.

I hope I don't get in trouble with the Secret Service by saying that I, too, found satisfaction in the display of anger toward Bush, whose reckless war costs hundreds of thousands of lives and destroyed an entire nation. What Zaidi did was to put an exclamation point on Bush's war, fittingly -- and, given the fact that the smoothly bipartisan, rancorless Barack Obama isn't likely to investigate the crimes of the Bush adminstration in Iraq, it might be all we get before Bush rides off into the Texas sunset.

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December 15, 2008

Scowcroft, Gates, Jones: Go Slow on Iraq

By Robert Dreyfuss

When it comes to predictions about Obama's Iraq policy, we can discount the supercilious Rush Limbaugh, who "predicted in a speech last week that Democrats will back down from their pledge to rapidly withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq." But it's harder to ignore what Brent Scowcroft, Robert Gates, and James Jones are saying.

Let's start with Scowcroft. The ultimate Republican realist, who distinguished himself in 2002 by writing a Wall Street Journal op-ed saying bluntly that the United States should not attack Iraq, has had Obama's ear on national security matters for a while now. In a speech at the end of October, Scowcroft laid down a marker on Iraq, supporting limited troop withdrawals but urging caution -- exactly the sort of caution that will be urged on Obama from Gates and the generals:

Progress is being made. But it's a very fragile process. ... And it's getting to that point now that I think it is reversible, and so I think while the U.S. can probably begin to reduce some troops as the security situation improves, we have to be very careful about pulling out before we have a situation there that is clearly able to be sustained by the local system. And therefore, I would caution against a withdrawal of the United States according to a calendar, rather than according to the situation on the ground.

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December 11, 2008

Obama's Ross: Our Loss

By Robert Dreyfuss

There's a lot of buzz -- much of it generated by AIPAC, WINEP, and other parts of the Israel lobby, and a lot of it, no doubt, by Ross himself -- that hawkish Dennis Ross is going to get a big job in Hillary Clinton's State Department.

It's an insider battle, one that I've chronicled since last summer, between Obama's more dovish Middle East advisers and hawks such as Ross. Among the doves: Dan Kurtzer, Dan Shapiro, and the once-upon-a-time exiled-from-Obamaland folks such as Zbigniew Brzezinski and Robert Malley, who may be back in Obama's good graces. But Ross is, according to insiders, making a comeback.

A blog at Politico reports that "Obama backers concerned with Israel, are carefully eyeing the interplay between two of his most important advisers on the Middle East," Ross and Kurtzer, an Orthodox Jew who served as US ambassador to both Israel and Egypt.

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December 10, 2008

Did ISI Do It, Or Didn't They?

By Robert Dreyfuss

The lead story in today's New York Times reports a definitive connection between the Lashkar-e Taiba ("Army of the Pure") terrorist group and Pakistan's ISI intelligence service. The Times points out, though, that there is no evidence that ISI was involved in the planning of the attack--yet. Here are two important quotes from the article, both from U.S. officials, who points out that ISI provided funding and training for Lashkar:

"It goes beyond information sharing to include some funding and training. And these are not rogue ISI elements. What's going on is done in a fairly disciplined way."

But:

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December 8, 2008

John Bolton Reads 'Em and Weeps

By Robert Dreyfuss

It was an extraordinary scene at the American Enterprise Institute on Tuesday, where John Bolton read 'em and wept. There is, he said, no way to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

His conclusion, stunning in its finality: "We are going to have to deal with a nuclear Iran."

In so saying, Bolton -- among the hawkiest of hawks from the now neoconservative-movement-in-exile -- broke ranks with many of his neocon colleagues. Most of them haven't given up on stopping Iran, as evidenced by a raft of new reports from neocon-linked thinktanks. And they're busily calling for stepped-up sanctions, making bellicose threats, and warning of military action by the United States and Israel. But Bolton is folding his cards.

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December 5, 2008

Obama's Gaffe on India

By Robert Dreyfuss

It was, at least, a semi-gaffe.

Asked about India's response to the terror attacks, Obama had this to say:

"Sovereign nations obviously have a right to protect themselves.... Beyond that I do not want to comment on the specific situation that has taken place in South Asia right now. It is important for us to let the investigators do their job to make determination as to who is responsible for carrying out this heinous act. My administration will remain steadfast in support to India's efforts to catch the perpetrators of this terrible act and bring them to justice and I expect that the world community will feel the same way."

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December 3, 2008

He's Baaaaack! Holbrooke, that is.

By Robert Dreyfuss

The other shoe is dropping. Now that Hillary is feathering her nest at State, it seems likely that a flock of Democratic hawks -- or are they vultures? -- will be settling in, too. First among firsts is, yes, Richard Holbrooke.

Earlier it was conventional wisdom that Holbrook had been exiled from Obamaland, but his close ties to Hillary make it a sure bet that he'll be back. The Post reports today that Holbooke will get the ultrasensitive portfolio for South Asia including Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India:

President -elect Barack Obama is seriously considering giving former ambassador Richard Holbrooke a key role in handling diplomacy in south Asia, a move that would put one of America's most prominent international troubleshooters in the middle of trying to resolve the thorny and interrelated problems surrounding India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, according to several sources familiar with the transition.

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December 3, 2008

Obama's New Team at State, Defense, NSC

By Robert Dreyfuss

The Wall Street Journal, evidently keen readers of this blog, devoted an editorial on Friday to my criticism of Barack Obama's foreign policy team. Its November 28 editorial, entitled "Obama's War Cabinet," quoted thus from a piece I posted here last week. The Journal began:

The names floated for Barack Obama's national security team "are drawn exclusively from conservative, centrist and pro-military circles without even a single -- yes, not one! -- chosen to represent the antiwar wing of the Democratic party." In his plaintive post this week on the Nation magazine's Web site, Robert Dreyfuss indulges in the political left's wonderful talent for overstatement. But who are we to interfere with his despair?

Despair might be too strong a word. But certainly glum fits. As the Journal gloats:

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December 1, 2008

Mumbai Terror Could Cascade Across Region

By Robert Dreyfuss

The bloody terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India, have the potential to cascade across the region. If Pakistan's army and intelligence service, which have long supported anti-India terrorist groups, are deemed responsible for the attacks, the results could be catastrophic.

In 2001, an attack on the Indian parliament, carried out by Pakistan-based Islamist terrorists, brought the two countries to the brink of nuclear war.

This time, even if it doesn't go that far, the results could be far deadlier than the attacks themselves, which killed more than a hundred people. The assault could upend the peace process now underway between Pakistan and India. That, in turn, would strengthen the hand of Pakistan's military establishment, which is already brooding about the new civilian government that replaced President Musharraf, the army dictator. And the army could use the renewed tension to redouble its alliance with radical-right, anti-Indian Muslim groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan. By doing so, the idea of negotiations between various Islamists components of the Taliban movement, on one hand, and the civilian governments of President Karzai in Afghanistan and President Zardari in Pakistan, on the other, might be put on indefinite hold.

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November 28, 2008

The US-Iraq Deal Doesn't Bode Well

By Robert Dreyfuss

Secular and nationalist opponents of the Baghdad regime of Nouri al-Maliki failed, and spectacularly so, to block the US-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), and their failure is not a surprise. The ruling alliance of Shiite religious parties and Kurds, who moved forward with the tacit support of Iran, steamrollered opposition to the accord, which passed with at least 144 votes out of 198 members of parliament in attendance.

"A huge number of members left the country, supposedly on hajj [to Mecca] or for other reasons," said a leading Iraqi insider.

But, although the vote is a victory for Maliki, it says little about the future stability and security of the Iraqi state. And it says even less about the future of US-Iraq relations.

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November 27, 2008