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Employment Situation

The granddaddy of monthly economic reports is the federal reading on the employment situation. To call this a single report is deceptive. It actually has a bunch of moving parts that, on their own or as a group, can move stock and bond markets.

It's easy to think of the report in four parts. The first is non-farm payrolls, which tracks the month-over-month change in the number of jobs in the U.S. that don't involve milking cows or picking lettuce. Then comes the unemployment rate, which is the percentage of unemployed people as it relates to the total workforce.

The third component is the average hourly earnings change, which tracks how much more or less money U.S. workers are making. Finally, there's the average work week, which counts the number of hours non-farmers work.

Like most data reports, the unemployment one has its flaws. For one thing, it tracks non-farm payrolls, which means that a lot of folks who work off the land -- or, more to the point, are not currently working off the land -- are excluded. Also, if you¿re a consultant or small-business owner (a big part of the current economy), you¿re not counted. On the flip side, you can be double-counted if you hold down two jobs. That's one of the reasons why it's common to see non-farm payrolls drop (suggesting higher unemployment) but the unemployment rate shrinking (suggesting higher employment).

The impact of the Employment Situation report often depends on the mood of the markets. Take the wage component. If stock and bond traders are worried about inflation, an unexpected rise in hourly earnings suggests wage inflation and, ergo, can scare people. But, that same spike could be welcome if traders are more worried about a slowdown in consumer spending. Higher earnings mean more spending power.

Look for the employment report on the first Friday of every month at 8:30 a.m. EST.