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With the stimulus deal done, a potential showdown looms

Fractious stimulus battle could have consequences for future legislation

By Janet Hook | Washington Bureau

1:10 AM CST, February 16, 2009

WASHINGTON — The monthlong struggle over the stimulus plan left behind a smoking battlefield of partisanship, but it also set the stage for a political collision on a scale seldom seen in Washington — a showdown on even more divisive issues that could foreshadow the future of the two major political parties.

Against the background of the worst economic crisis in three-quarters of a century, Congress passed the $787 billion economic recovery bill without a single GOP vote in the House and only three Republican votes in the Senate, the bare minimum to avoid a paralyzing filibuster.

In effect, the Republicans seemed to bet the future on a daring but precarious gambit: By unflinchingly opposing a popular president on the issue Americans care most about, they hope to place responsibility for reviving the economy squarely on President Barack Obama's back. If his prescriptions fail — or succeed but carry unwelcome side effects such as inflation or higher taxes — the GOP could say "We told you so."

If the president succeeds, or if the economy remains mired down but voters decide Republicans placed partisan gamesmanship ahead of the public interest, the result could be long-term trouble for the party — especially its conservative core, which has shaped the present strategy.

Democrats, meanwhile, displayed an unusual level of unity with a political calculation of their own: that voters would give them credit for championing the idea of bipartisanship and not hold it against them if they failed to achieve it.

In the case of the stimulus bill, Democrats used their solid majority to roll over House Republicans and yielded no more than necessary to garner three critical GOP votes in the Senate.

But if Democrats won the opening battle on the stimulus plan, the outcome of the war lies in tougher struggles just ahead: First is Obama's plan — promised for this week — to use the government to help struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure.

Next, Obama will follow up on a blueprint for reviving the moribund financial system, a task that is expected to require vast new amounts of taxpayer dollars to help deeply unpopular banks and Wall Street financial institutions.

Still farther down the road lies the president's promise to tackle such massive and controversial issues as health care, climate change and energy.

On each of those issues, the stakes will likely be higher because of the polarization displayed on the stimulus bill.

"It is not a good omen," said G. Calvin Mackenzie, a Colby College scholar of the presidency. "Pulling in Republican votes [on health and energy initiatives] will be as hard as what he's facing now. They worked the Hill; they tried open hands to the Republicans and still couldn't get the votes."

But a senior administration official was optimistic that future legislative battles will be more bipartisan and open because other issues will not require the fast-track, urgent action needed for the economic recovery bill.

"Republican leaders forced members to vote against their districts and to reject hundreds of billions in tax cuts [in the stimulus bill]," said the official, who asked for anonymity because he is not authorized to discuss administration strategy publicly. "They used up a lot of chits."

But Republican leaders expressed satisfaction with their decision to make the stimulus plan an almost entirely Democratic formulation.

"There is a high level of comfort among House and Senate Republicans with where we are politically on this issue," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky).

Through it all, Obama may have failed to win support from Republicans, and the opening rollout of his fiscal policy gave the stock market the jitters, but he was retaining the support of the public. A recent Gallup poll found that 67 percent of Americans approved of the way he was handling the economic stimulus bill; only 31 percent approved of Republicans' performance.

Rep. Edward Markey (D-Mass.), a senior member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, predicts Democrats will have more success attracting Republican support if their initiatives are presented as individual proposals rather than sweeping packages like the stimulus bill. He pointed to the January vote to expand children's health insurance coverage, which garnered support from 40 Republicans.

And GOP leader McConnell left himself and his party some leeway, arguing that his party's strategy in the future will be dictated by whether Obama and congressional Democrats are more receptive to GOP views than they were on the economic recovery plan.

"Obviously the president concluded it was easier to pick off a couple Republicans" rather than make big concessions to Republicans, McConnell said. "If he tries to go down the genuine middle, we're willing to engage."

jhook@tribune.com