by Frank James

President-elect Barack Obama is due to make a major speech on the economy today at George Mason University in Northern Virginia just outside Washington, D.C.

It is essentially a call for support of what is expected to be a huge economic stimulus package he hopes to get enacted in the first few months of his presidency. He warns that if an economic stimulus isn't passed quickly enough, it may come too late to stave off a dramatic decline not of just the economy but the nation too.

His presidential transition office has released excerpts:

I don't believe it's too late to change course, but it will be if we don't take dramatic action as soon as possible. If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years. The unemployment rate could reach double digits. Our economy could fall $1 trillion short of its full capacity, which translates into more than $12,000 in lost income for a family of four. We could lose a generation of potential and promise, as more young Americans are forced to forgo dreams of college or the chance to train for the jobs of the future. And our nation could lose the competitive edge that has served as a foundation for our strength and standing in the world.

There is no doubt that the cost of this plan will be considerable. It will certainly add to the budget deficit in the short-term. But equally certain are the consequences of doing too little or nothing at all, for that will lead to an even greater deficit of jobs, incomes, and confidence in our economy. It is true that we cannot depend on government alone to create jobs or long-term growth, but at this particular moment, only government can provide the short-term boost necessary to lift us from a recession this deep and severe. Only government can break the vicious cycles that are crippling our economy - where a lack of spending leads to lost jobs which leads to even less spending; where an inability to lend and borrow stops growth and leads to even less credit.

By Peter Wallsten and updated at 4:05 pm with Bush statement

Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor and brother of President Bush, has decided not to run for the U.S. Senate, ending weeks of speculation that he would preserve a Bush family power center in the nation's capital.

Unlike his older brother, Jeb Bush (pictured at left in an AP photo by John Raoux) left office with high approval ratings and a reputation as a master of policy. He was considered the GOP's strongest contender for the open seat being vacated by Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.).

He spent much of this day calling friends and supporters to give them the news, according to one Republican close to the Bush family.

"There was a lot of support, and support from interesting places," Bush said in an interview, "but this would have been a bit detour in my life."

Republicans from Washington to Miami and Texas - including Bush's father, former President George H.W. Bush, had hoped that the younger Bush would jump into the race.

Former President Bush told Fox News over the weekend that he saw the Florida Senate seat as a possible precursor to another family member winning the White House in the future.

"After thoughtful consideration, I have decided not to run for the United States Senate in 2010,'' Bush said in a statement released by his office this afternoon. ""While the opportunity to serve my state and country during these turbulent and dynamic times is compelling, now is not the right time to return to elected office.''

(Jeb Bush sits fourth from the right, rear row, in this Bush family photo taken at Camp David at Christmas. President Bush sits in the middle, their mother and father, the former president, to the left of the president. White House photo by Eric Draper.)

by Mark Silva

Will the new senator from New York, Sen. Clinton, please rise to take the oath of office?

Bill Clinton, that is.

Caretaker, for the seat of his wife, the former first lady, Hillary Clinton, leaving the Senate to become secretary of state in the administration of Barack Obama.

That's one of the scenarios floating in New York, where Gov. David Paterson is presented with a difficult choice in the appointment of a successor to Hillary Clinton. So much attention has focused lately on Caroline Kennedy, daughter of President John F. Kennedy, for the appointment that the governor is said to be growing weary.

Some caretaker agreeing to serve only the remainder of Clinton's term, someone such as the former president, say, or former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo "could have an immediate impact for New York in the Senate while letting the large field of hopefuls duke it out in 2010,'' according to three Democratic Party advisers close to the discussion with Paterson's inner circle on this issue, as cited by the Associated Press.

(Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) appeared with her husband, former President Bill Clinton, during an October campaign rally in Scranton, Pa. (AP Photo by Jimmy Ma)

by Mark Silva

There may be more than a few complications with Gov. Rod Blagojevich's appointment of Roland Burris to the open Senate seat of President-elect Barack Obama:

1) The Senate's Democrats say they will refuse to seat Burris -- not because of anything wrong with the former state attorney general; to the contrary. It's not about Burris, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says -- it's about Blagojevich, who is under arrest by federal authorities for allegedly trying to sell Obama's seat.

2) The Illinois secretary of state, Jesse White, says he will not certify the governor's appointment. So, if it is not duly certified, there really is no appointment.

This is the form the Senate requires in matters such as this:

CERTIFICATE OF APPOINTMENT
To the President of the Senate of the United States:

I__ J__,
Secretary of State.

3) The rest of the economy may be hurting, but a whole new raft of lawyers may have just found some gainful new employment.

by Mark Silva

Is the New York Daily News attempting to "sandbag'' Caroline Kennedy with its transcriptual-reality reporting on the words of the woman seeking appointment to the U.S. Senate from New York?

""I'm really coming into this as somebody who isn't, you know, part of the system, who obviously, you know, stands for the values of, you know, the Democratic Party," Kennedy told the Daily News in one of the interviews that the daughter of President John F. Kennedy conducted with the media over the weekend.

"I know how important it is to, you know, to be my own person. And, you know, and that would be obviously true with my relationship with the mayor."

The Daily News' own columnist, Michael Goodwin, already is wishing Kennedy out of the running for Gov. David Paterson's appointment of a successor to Sen. Hillary Clinton, who will step aside to become secretary of state in the Obama administration, should the Senate confirm her, as expected. "Goodnight, Caroline,'' the columnist writes.

But News owner Mort Zuckerman insisted this morning that his paper is not "sandbagging'' Kennedy.

The candidate's words bear reporting, Zuckerman suggested in one of his frequent appearances on MSNBC's Morning Joe. He suggested that the interview was reminiscent of one that the candidate's uncle, Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, gave to Roger Mudd in 1979 when the correspondent went asking why Kennedy should be president - he couldn't really articulate an answer.

by Mark Silva

It could have been a certain candidate for vice president's inability to name any newspapers that she reads. Or it could have been those thousands of dollars of campaign-purchased designer-wear that the self-styled "soccer mom'' from Alaska wore on the campaign trail.

It could have been a winning candidate for president's portrayal of working class voters as "bitter,'' or the suggestion of this African-American candidate this his own beloved grandmother was "a typical white person.''

It could have been the Republican presidential nominee's admission, many months before claiming the party's nomination, that "the issue of economics is something that I've never really understood as well as I should,'' or his sudden "suspension'' of his campaign late in the contest to return to Washington to attend to an economic meltdown. David Letterman said it didn't meet "the smell test.''

It could have been the once-leading Democratic candidate's recollection of her landing in Bosnia under "sniper fire.'' Anyone can get tired campaigning late at night, her husband, the former president explained - raising certain questions about the way that "3 am telephone call'' might be handled at the White House.

Or perhaps it was the Beverly Hills reunion that a former presidential hopeful and former nominee for vice president had with the woman, a former campaign aide, with whom he had an affair while his wife was battling cancer.

Somewhere along the road to the White House, someone committed the "gaffe of the year'' in the campaign just concluded.

For the sake of the campaign cycle, we'll accept an extended period of time for that "year'' under consideration - reaching back to, say, April of 2007, when the eventual Republican nominee responded to a voter's question about sending "an airmail message'' to Iran with a whimsical recital of the Beach Boys' Barbara Ann... "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb...''

And we'll ask you, in the remaining days of this tumultuous year, to tell us how you rank the Top Five Gaffes of the Year. We offer these five for your consideration, and welcome your suggestions for any others, here in the Swamp. See our candidates below the fold, rank them, feel free to offer your own alternatives and come back on New Year's Day for a read-out on the year's rankings.

by Mark Silva

In that limited gene pool that has fueled American politics for several decades now - the Kennedy, Clinton and Bush clans - Caroline Kennedy maintains that she represents an "unconventional choice'' for the New York Senate seat of Hillary Clinton.

"I am an unconventional choice,'' the 51-year-old daughter of President John F. Kennedy told the Associated Press, in her debut on the "sit-down interview'' circuit as she seeks the seat that Clinton is forfeiting to serve as secretary of state for President-elect Barack Obama. "I understand that,'' Kennedy told the AP. "I haven't pursued the traditional path. But I think that in our public life today, we're starting to see there are many ways into public life and public service.''

She is a mother of three, an attorney, best-selling author and activist for education reform. Her children, she says, have been her highest priority for the past two decades. The nation's economic crisis, she says, will consume leaders for years.

"This is going to be a multiyear effort to fix this economic crisis. So in order to be effective, I would plan to stay at it," Kennedy said in an interview at the Gee Whiz diner not far from the World Trade Center in New York. "Between bites of a grilled cheese and bacon sandwich,'' the AP's Larry Neumeister reports, "Kennedy said the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and her work for Barack Obama's presidential campaign inspired her to act on her public service impulses.''

She has asked New York Gov. David Paterson to appoint her to the Senate seat that Clinton will leave if she is confirmed as secretary of state. ""He encouraged me,'' she said. "He said he has a lot of qualified candidates.''

by Mark Silva

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Yes, Virginia, there is a Republican Party.

For all the celebration of the electoral landslide that will land President-elect Barack Obama in the White House in January - for all the victories won by Democrats in states that had not voted that way in many years (such as Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana), all three victories in the states where two-for-three is usually good enough (in Ohio, Pennsylvania and here in Florida) - the Republican Party has not been defeated.

Rather, it is in retreat.

For the moment, at this holiday lull between campaign and inaugural and legislative seasons, the best the party can offer is a firewall against the agenda of Obama and his party in the Senate, where the Democrats still stand shy of the 60 seats needed to overrule the opposition. That power was exerted in dramatic form earlier this month by Sen. Richard Shelby and friends, standing in the way of an auto-industry bailout that ultimately the White House had to handle - with a lame-duck President Bush relying on his own executive authority to carry out a bailout that his own party would not buy.

Fractured, but not defeated.

This party will regroup and rebuild in places such as Florida, where the former governor, Jeb Bush, is said to be giving serious consideration to seeking the open Senate seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez, an Orlando Republican who has fallen from favor and is stepping down in 2010 after only one term. The GOP will be particularly concerned about protecting that 40-vote firewall that Sen. Saxby Chambliss of Georgia vowed to maintain in his own hard-fought runoff reelection, and they can start here.

For anyone who has known Jeb Bush a long time, the thought of him even thinking of the Senate came as a surprise - he is the chief executive's chief executive, not the go-along, get-along sort of compromiser that life in a legislature requires. Yet anyone who has known him also knows that he takes his politics, and more importantly, public policy, seriously. He sees a certain void in his party at the moment: An absence of someone in Washington with a pulpit to advance the opposition's cause in a reasoned and methodical manner. It's said he will let everyone know his intentions in the New Year.

Should he run, it won't be a runaway contest. One of the state's leading Democrats, the elected Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, also is eyeing the contest. Here in Florida, more than a few people would look at any contest between Sink and Bush as a rematch - her husband, Tampa attorney Bill McBride, challenged Bush in his reelection in 2002. McBride lost. Sink, a retired and successful banking executive, went on to win her own statewide office. She is undefeated - something that Bush cannot say (he lost his first bid for the governor's office, in 1994, to the incumbent Gov. Lawton Chiles.)

It may well take a Bush, however, or a popular Gov. Charlie Crist, to hold Florida's one Republican Senate seat in two years. It also could take a Sink to deny them.

In the meantime, the Republican Party stands in retreat - looking something like that sun over the far shore of the Ochlockonee River as it wends into the Gulf of Mexico, where the smoke of a slow, controlled burn in the Apalachicola Forest rises.

The GOP is going through that controlled burn at the moment.

But remember, Virginia, there still is a Republican Party.

by Mike Dorning and James Janega

Barack Obama told reporters today to wait until he's out of town on Christmas vacation in Hawaii for answers to questions on his advisers' dealings with Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

Asked at a press conference moments ago about how he squared his commitment to transparency in government with the tight-lipped response he and his advisers have had to questions about their dealings with the scandal-tarnished governor, Obama said that it has been "frustrating" to maintain silence but that the questions will be answered next week--which happens to be when he will be in Hawaii on break.

"It's a little bit frustrating. There has been a little bit of speculation in the press that I would like to correct immediately. We are abiding by the request of the U.S. Attorney's office," Obama said. "But it's not going to be that long. By next week, you guys will have the answers to all of your questions."

As Obama spoke, his political advisor David Axelrod and chief of staff designate Rahm Emanuel watched from the margins of the room. Axelrod stood motionless, hands on hips, a frown partially hidden by his moustache and his attention laser-focused on Obama as he spoke. Emanuel, who was checking a message on his Blackberry when the question was asked, smiled in faint amusement, put the Blackberry away and watched the rest of Obama's response with his legs crossed at his ankles, arms crossed and a single finger pressed across his lips. He was still smiling.

by Mark Silva

Sarah Palin, Republican governor of Alaska, says she has wondered how long Rod Blagojevich, Democratic governor of Illinois, thought he might "get away with'' an alleged scheme to sell the Senate seat of President-elect Barack Obama of Illinois.

"Now is the time, not just for governors, but, for all elected officials to try and start shoring up some trust with the electorate,'' Palin, the Republican Party's losing vice presidential nominee this year, says in an interview airing this evening on FOX News Channel's On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.

"You cannot be in this business to get rich...can't be in this business with anything but a servant's heart,'' Palin tells Van Susteren in the matter of Blagojevich. "I'm wondering how long the guy thought he was gonna get away with it."

Palin also says she has apologized to the pastor of her church in Wasilla, Ala., which burned down - if the "suspicious'' incident had anything to do with controversy that she stirred with her campaign. The church had fielded threats in the past, she says.

"I'll leave it to the pastor to speak to,'' Palin says in the FOX interview. "I apologized to the assistant pastor letting him know that if there's anything that I've done to draw negative attention to the church.''

This was a dangerous fire, she notes.

"There was a group of women... There were children in the church,'' she says. "They were the ones who first discerned that there was an obvious problem with the fire alarms going off and looking down the hall and seeing fire... It became pretty obvious near the very beginning of this whole episode that this was suspicious because there were just too many things taking place that evening."

by Bob Secter

Rahm Emanuel, President-elect Barack Obama's pick to be White House chief of staff, had conversations with Gov. Rod Blagojevich's administration about who would replace Obama in the U.S. Senate, the Chicago Tribune has learned.

The revelation does not suggest Obama's new gatekeeper was involved in any talk of dealmaking involving the seat. But it does help fill in the gaps surrounding a question that Obama was unable or unwilling to answer this week: Did anyone on his staff have contact with Blagojevich about his choice for the Senate seat?

Blagojevich and John Harris, his former chief of staff, face federal charges in an alleged shakedown involving the vacant Senate seat, which Illinois law grants the governor sole authority to fill.

Obama said Thursday he had never spoken to Blagojevich about the Senate vacancy and was "confident that no representatives" of his had engaged in any dealmaking over the seat with the governor or his team. He also pledged Thursday that in the "next few days" he would explain what contacts his staff may have had with the governor's office about the Senate vacancy.

Emanuel, who has long been close to both Blagojevich and Obama, has refused to respond to questions about any involvement he may have had with the Blagojevich camp over the Senate pick. A spokeswoman for Emanuel also declined to comment Friday.

One source confirmed that communications between Emanuel and the Blagojevich administration were captured on court-approved wiretaps.

Another source said that contact between the Obama camp and the governor's administration regarding the Senate seat began the Saturday before the Nov. 4 election, when Emanuel made a call to the cell phone of Harris. The conversation took place around the same time press reports surfaced about Emanuel being approached about taking the high-level White House post should Obama win.

Emanuel delivered a list of candidates who would be "acceptable" to Obama, the source said. On the list were Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett, Illinois Veterans Affairs director Tammy Duckworth, state Comptroller Dan Hynes and U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky of Chicago, the source said. All are Democrats.

(Photo of White House Chief of Staff-designate Rahm Emanuel at a news conference in Chicago last week by Charles Dharapak / AP)

by Mark Silva

Could President-elect Barack Obama be one of the cleanest politicians from one of the dirtiest states in America?

To hear a prominent FBI agent tell it, Illinois is hard in the running for the latter category:

"If it isn't the most corrupt state in the United States, it's certainly one hell of a competitor," said Robert Grant, special agent in charge of Chicago's FBI office, after the arrest of Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, accused of trying to sell an appointment to the vacant Senate seat that Obama has left behind. "Even the most cynical agents in our office were shocked."

Indeed, as the Tribune Washington Bureau's David Savage reports, Americans can trace the origin of popular elections of U.S. senators to a scandal in Illinois that involved, of course, selling an appointive Senate seat.

The way a federal affidavit tells it, Blagojevich had upped the ante considerably since the days of Chicago's "Blond Boss,'' ousted from the Senate in 1912. Nearly a century later, a federal affidavit claims, Illinois' governor was taped on a telephone call the day before the election of Illinois' junior senator to the presidency calling the Senate seat "a [expletive] valuable thing. You just don't give it away for nothing."

Obama, for his part, maintains that he had never discussed the appointment of his replacement with Blagojevich, portrayed by federal prosecutors as offering the seat to the highest bidder in the land of Lincoln.

"Gov. Blagojevich has been arrested in the middle of what we can only describe as a political corruption crime spree," U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald said at a news conference. He said the governor's conduct would make [ Abraham] Lincoln roll over in his grave."

Worse than Louisiana, where a congressman lost his seat after investigators found cash stuffed in his freezer? Louisiana and Illinois have at least this in common: Two former governors, imprisoned, seeking clemency from the president of the United States.

Fomer Democratic Gov. Edwin Edwards of Louisiana, sentenced to 10 years in prison on racketeering charges in 2001, is seeking a shortened prison term. -- he has applied to the Justice Department's Office of the Pardon Attorney for a commutation of his sentence.

Former Republican Gov. George Ryan of Illinois, who started serving a 6½-year prison sentence last year after a federal racketeering and fraud conviction, is seeking a pardon. And his supporters are pressing President George W. Bush, who has been more selective than most presidents in modern times with his pardon power, for relief.

Ironically, Blagojevich, a Democrat, is among those calling for a Ryan pardon: "I always err on the side of compassion," Blagojevich said during a Thanksgiving stop at the Chicago Christian Industrial League. "I think people make mistakes. George Ryan has paid a significant price for those mistakes. And if President Bush makes that decision, I think it would be a fine decision.''

Caroline Kennedy waves to the crowd after stumping for then Sen. Barack Obama at the Wilkes University student center in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., Sunday, Nov. 2, 2008. (AP Photo/Kristen Mullen, The Citizens' Voice)

by Frank James

It's easy to understand some of what must be tugging on Caroline Kennedy, President John F. Kennedy's daughter who, according to reports, is considering seeking the Senate seat from New York being vacated by Sen. Hillary Clinton, President-elect Barack Obama's choice to be his secretary of state.

A Kennedy has served in the Senate since 1952 when her father was first elected to the body, with only a brief interruption after JFK was elected president.

But her uncle, Sen. Edward Kennedy has an incurable brain cancer and is 76. The easiest way to ensure that the Kennedy Senate tradition continues would be for her to have New York Gov. David Patterson appoint her to fill the seat.

Of course, the seat being vacated by Clinton was once occupied by Kennedy's other uncle, Robert F. Kennedy, so that's quite possibly another draw.

by John McCormick and Mike Dorning

As he hosted a gala celebration for some of his earliest and most loyal financial supporters Thursday evening, President-elect Barack Obama's aides released new information showing the magnitude of their feat: They raised nearly $1 billion for his campaign and other election-related efforts.

The stunning total includes already recorded and estimated fundraising for his campaign, national convention, transition and upcoming inauguration.

That sets a new and dramatically higher bar for future presidential candidates, radically changing the financial definition of a serious bid for the White House.

Roughly three-quarters of the money Obama raised was directly channeled to his campaign, a marathon that lasted nearly two years and ushered in an unprecedented level of national fundraising using old-school techniques as well as a cutting-edge, Internet-based operation.

A disclosure report filed late Thursday showed Obama raised $111 million from Oct. 16 through Nov. 24.

That brings his campaign total receipts to $770 million, easily more than the combined fundraising for the 2004 election by President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts.

By Andrew Zajac

Most of the attention paid to the Justice Department these days focuses on its future in a new administration, presumably under the leadership of Eric Holder, President-elect Obama's pick for Attorney General to replace caretaker AG Michael Mukasey.

Holder will have his plate full restoring morale in the 110,000-employee agency plagued by scandal, including the unprecedented firings of nine U.S. attorneys and politicized hiring for civil service posts.

He also may inherit an unpleasant reminder of the partisan handiwork he'll be trying to undo.

by Mark Silva

All politics really are local, Nielsen suggests.

With a look at the overall TV campaign ad-buys of the Obama and McCain campaigns. (This doesn't account for the ads placed by the political parties or supporting organizations, as if this number is not big enough.)

President-elect Barack Obama placed 155 percent more "spot" TV ads in local media markets than Sen. John McCain did during their general election contest (early June through early November), according to Nielsen

It's not really surprising, in that the real contest for the presidency was waged in a dwindling number of battleground states that began with about 16 or 17 and shrunk to a handful in the final days. The deluge of ad-buys came in Ohio, Florida and the like.

This is Nielsen's tally:

SPOT TV BUYS (6/08 to 11/08):

OBAMA - 419,667

MCCAIN- 269,992

Yet the Republican nominee kept pace with Obama in cable and broadcast network TV ad buys if one looks back as far as January: (Going back to January, the two candidates aired a total of about 850,000 TV ads.)

CABLE AND NETWORK TV BUYS (1/08 to 11/08):

OBAMA - 3004

MCCAIN - 2868

by Mark Silva

How quickly we forget the last election:

Someone already has Iowa on his mind, or at least his itinerary.

Bobby Jindal, the young Republican governor of Louisiana, is making a traditional pilgrimage some 37 months away from the next Iowa caucuses. But really, things are more urgent than they seem: The Republican Party's Straw Polll in Ames is only 32 months away -- as our colleague Andrew Malcolm at The Ticket notes.

Jindal appeared at a fundraiser for the Iowa Family Policy Center at the Sheraton Hotel in West Des Moines. "The 37-year-old Jindal made light of the occasion, of course, joking to some 800 curious listeners that it was way too soon to be making political speeches,'' Malcolm notes, with MSNBC's First Read attributing this suggestion to Jindal: "You might want to consider getting involved in some kind of recovery program.''

"But, of course, that's exactly what he was doing anyway in the form of speaking about family,'' the Ticket adds of a party undergoing its own post-election recovery program. "As a parent," said Jindal, knowing his conservative audience had precisely the same feelings, "I'm acutely aware of the overall coarsening of our culture in many ways."

And he did add this:

"'Whether you voted for him or not," Jindal said of the incoming president, Democrat Barack Obama, "whether you supported the new leaders of Congress or not, they're our president. They're our Congress. They need our prayers. They need our support."

(Photo of Gov. Bobby Jindal and family by Associated Press.)

by Josh Drobnyk

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell today reiterated his pledge to stay in Harrisburg until 2011, saying that public officials make "an implied promise" to serve out their terms when they seek election.

So does the same go for, say, a certain senator from New York, who could well be offered the chance to leave her job mid-term? Rendell was asked.

Not quite, he responded.

"I think the senators don't have the type of executive responsibility that a governor has," Rendell said. "You are electing a governor or mayor to run things. I don't mean to demean what senators do, but it is pretty easy to raise your right hand or press that button to vote. It is a little different than running the state or running the city."

Rendell, for the record, said Sen. Hillary Clinton would "be good for any job out there in the field of government or politics."

"If it is New York's loss in one sense, because she has been a great senator, New York will gain because of the things she will do to repair this country's relationship with the world," he said.

He said he has yet to talk with Clinton about her potential appointment as secretary of state, but that she plans to come to the late Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll's memorial at the end of the week.He said the two were close friends. Knoll died last week at 78 after a four-month bout with cancer.

by Rick Pearson and Bob Secter

Barack Obama won election to the Illinois Senate in 1996 with no help from Richard Daley. The Chicago mayor offered no assistance to Obama in 2000 when he ran unsuccessfully for Congress. Most of Daley's friends, family and associates backed a different candidate in 2004 when Obama won the U.S. Senate primary.

Yet to have heard Obama's rivals on the presidential campaign trail tell it over the last many months, the two Chicago Democrats have been virtually joined at the hip for years.

There may be no more enduring caricature in politics than that of the Chicago machine led by a powerful mayor with life or death say over the careers of an army of the city's elected officials. But that simplistic image never really applied to the complex, cordial but historically less than intimate political relationship between the men who are now Chicago's two most prominent Democrats.

Before Obama hit the political big time four years ago, he was largely irrelevant to Daley and even bucked the mayor's perceived interests on occasion without repercussions. For the most part, Daley's interests were more parochial than Springfield or Washington.

While Obama never relied on city patronage workers passing out palm cards, his ascension as an outsider was aided by powerful people who also were key players inside Daley's sphere of influence. And as Obama gained prominence, the interests of the next Oval Office occupant and the current inhabitant of the fifth floor of City Hall have grown closer.

See the rest of the story on Obama and Daley in today's Tribune and here:

by Andrew Zajac

Senate Democrats face long odds to reach the 60 seats they crave to make their majority filibuster-proof, but you wouldn't know it from the intensity of the rhetoric in the run-up to the Dec. 2 run-off election in Georgia for the seat currently held by Republican Saxby Chambliss.

Chambliss was the top vote-getter but he fell just short of the 50 percent required for an outright win, so he's matched up against Democrat Jim Martin, whose party is still smarting from the hardball and some say below-the-belt tactics the GOP employed to dispatch the then-incumbent, Max Cleland, in 2002.

President-elect Barack Obama in Chicago's Grant Park on Election Night. (Chicago Tribune photo by Nuccio DiNuzzio.)

by Frank James

It's the morning after one of the most memorable days in American history and we're still too close to it to have as much perspective as we would like.

President-elect Obama. It still seems unreal to many of us that the nation will have a president who is African-American come January 20.

But the realities of what Obama faces are daunting: an economy in recession, two wars, an existential terrorist threat, an energy crisis, global warming, belligerent nation states with leaders who will indeed test him, a deeply divided nation.

Obama knows many of the details of what he faces. But so much is unknowable.

We can only hope that he's the right leader for the moment because many Americans have the sense that we have to get the next four years mostly right or face the real prospect of becoming a superpower in the declining phase of its trajectory.

Your thoughts?

By Andrew Zajac

The Swamp offers this thought to cheer, or perhaps depress, students of the American political process now on the verge of a lull in the action after one of the longest presidential campaigns in U.S. history:

If John McCain wins, you're likely looking at a campaign to succeed him begin soon after he's sworn in, like maybe right after the dancing stops at the inaugural balls.

by Jason George

WASILLA, Alaska -- Stopping for a coffee at the Mocha Moose, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin told reporters she's not sure if she'll have a role in national politics if she and Sen. John McCain don't win today's election.

"You know if there is a role in national politics, it won't be so much partisan," she said, 15 minutes after voting at the Wasilla City Hall where she once served as mayor.

"My efforts have always been here in the state of Alaska to get everybody to unite and work together," she added. "It certainly would a uniter type of roll"

Asked if she had any regrets in this campaign, Palin first said wished she had "more hours in the day so we could've gotten around to more areas of our country." She then seemed to find her preferred answer: blaming the media.

Palin said she was disappointed with much of the reporting about her.

"The state of journalism today, the world, for the blogosphere, the 2-3-hour news cycles, where just too much is reported based on gossip and innuendo and things taken out of context," she said.

She then suggested that her next role might be righting the wrongs she sees in journalism.

"I'd like to help in that effort also because I have great respect for the world for journalism."

She then said no more questions and left.

by Frank James

The highly regarded Ohio Poll sponsored by the University of Cincinnati predicts that Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, will win Ohio.

If Obama does beat Sen. John McCain in Ohio, it would represent a seismic shift in presidential politics since no Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio.

President Bush relied on Ohio to deliver the votes that allowed him to defeat Sen. John Kerry in 2004 and give him a second term. If Obama wins Ohio, it's difficult to see McCain winning in enough other places to capture 270 Electoral College votes and it could point to an Electoral College landslide and a relatively early call of the presidential race tomorrow evening.

An excerpt from their press release:

Cincinnati, OH--The final Ohio Poll for the 2008 election season finds Senator Barack Obama likely towin Ohio's 20 electoral votes.

In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 2.7 percent.

by Andrew Zajac

Companies affiliated with the family of Gene and Nora Lum, who were convicted of making illegal campaign contributions in a Democratic fundraising scandal a decade ago have donated at least $4,800 to the campaigns of Michael Brown, a candidate for Washington D.C. city council, who pleaded guilty in the same scandal.

Brown, the son of the late Ron Brown, a Clinton administration Commerce Secretary and one-time head of the Democratic National Committee, is seeking an at-large seat on the 13-member DC council.

by Frank James

Sen. John McCain has gone after Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic nominee's use of the words "spread the wealth" when the senator from Illinois explained his tax plan to Joe "the Plumber" Wurzelbacher.

I just happened to be reading over the weekend an interesting New York Times Magazine piece by writer David Leonhardt from August on Obama's economic philosophy and came across the phrase "spreading the wealth," a usage which predated Obama's Joe-the-Plumber encounter.

Obama is quoted using the words in the article. Instead they were used by a NYT magazine editor who wrote a subhead that appeared over part five of the article, a lengthy passage describing a key piece of Obama's plan, the idea that he wants to use the tax code to reverse some of the growing income inequality that has become more pronounced in the last decade which has seen the rich get richer as the middle class and the poor have seen their incomes stagnate.

by Frank James

Political analyst Charlie Cook is about the closest Washington political culture has to the opera's singing fat lady. (Don't read too much into that Charlie.) He tends to be right so he tends to be listened to.

So his column in the National Journal yesterday was really noteworthy because he came as close to saying the presidential race is over as you can without saying it's over.

For a political analyst, the normal posture this time of year is much like a baseball umpire's: hunched over, peering carefully as the ball approaches the plate, watching for whether it breaks left or right, whether it's coming in high or low. But, these days, we analysts are more like outfielders, watching in awe as a ball seems on a trajectory to not only clear the fence but very likely land in the upper deck.

by Frank James

OK, I'll admit I didn't know there was a legal sub-specialty field called fashion law but evidently there is.

Susan Scafidi, a legal scholar in that field and a visiting professor at the Fordham University Law School, has an observation on the news that the Republican National Committee paid $150,000 to outfit Gov. Sarah Palin, Sen. John McCain's vice presidential running mate.

"In our image-based society, the packaging of a candidate requires strategic spending on visuals, from stage makeup to backdrops to podiums at a flattering height -- and yes, costumes. As a result, it's difficult to argue that the RNC's purchase of clothing for Sarah Palin is an inappropriate expenditure on items for personal use, especially if they really do go to charity after the campaign. Still, given that neither party has given its male candidates a wardrobe makeover, the $150,000 spent at Saks and Neimans reinforces the unfortunate impression that Governor Palin is merely the conservatives' favorite dress-up doll."

Scafidi obviously knows a sound-bite when she sees it.

by Christi Parsons and Frank James

RICHMOND, VA -- At his press conference in Richmond today, Sen. Barack Obama hit two interesting points: he answered the Joe Biden question about whether the world would test him if he were president, and he spoke to the economic points Sen. John McCain is raising in New Hampshire today.

"Sometimes Joe engages in rhetorical flourishes," Obama said of his vice presidential running mate. "But his core point was that the next administration is going to be tested, regardless of who it is. The next administration is going to inherit a whole host of really big problems... The president is going to be tested... the question is whether the next president will meet that test."

by Mark Silva

Yes, Virginia, there is a "South Park Republican.''

And, yes, Democrats are paying the closest attention to The Colbert Report.

Nielsen's IAG Service, which tracks the "engagement'' of vieweres in a a TV show - how much content people can recall after watching it - has found that, among cable TV vewers, Republicans are most engaged with the Comedy Central program, South Park. And the show that Democrats are watching most closely is Comedy Central's Colbert Report.

At the same time, the cable programs with the highest engagement scores have a bipartisan appeal - which goes to figure, wider announcement, more engagement.

The Cleaner, on Arts and Entertainment, has the highest "bipartisan engagement,'' followed by Bravo's Real Housewives of Orange County and the Food Channel's Next Food Network Star.''

by Frank James

Rush Limbaugh took after Christopher Buckley for supporting Sen. Barack Obama. The radio man ridiculed the son of conservative icon William Buckley for the compliments Buckley paid Obama's mind.

by Frank James

So many critics have spent the last week or so demolishing the McCain-Palin line of attack that Sen. Barack Obama wants to give "welfare" in the form of tax credits to people who don't pay income taxes, you would think the Republican ticket would've given up on that one and moved on to another attack line.

You would be wrong.

Stand-ins for Barack Obama and John McCain during final preparations for the presidential debate at Hofstra University, October 15, 2008 in Hempstead, N.Y. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

by Frank James

If there's anything to be thankful for today, it must surely be that we have reached the end of the the line with the last of the three presidential debates between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain occurring tonight.

The first two debates were so uninspiring, despite all the advance hype, it would be foolish to hold out hope that tonight's debate at 9 p.m. ET at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y. will be any different.

Yes, McCain, the Republican nominee, is promising to come out swinging since he has fallen steadily behind his Democratic rival in the polls.

But the senator from Arizona has seen the same polls everyone else has, the ones that say his favorability ratings have declined versus Obama in recent weeks. The drop correlates with McCain and his running mate Gov. Sarah Palin's attacks on the Democrat over William Ayers, the former 1960s radical who Obama once served with on a education foundation board's.

That means McCain must walk a tightrope as he tries one last time in a debate setting to raise doubts in voters' minds about Obama without turning off independent and undecided voters.

Also, tonight's format is going to have the men sharing a table with CBS News' Bob Schieffer. That physical arrangement likely will make it more difficult for McCain to be slash at Obama.

For his part, Obama just has to continue to remain cool, which shouldn't be any problem for him. According to polls, he won the two previous debates and his calm, collected demeanor are largely responsible for that. He appears unflappable, unexcited at a time when the economy has left many others anxious, feeling unmoored.

Tonight's debate comes against a backdrop of the still uncertain financial markets, an economy widely believed to be in recession, and coordinated measures by policymakers in the world's leading economies, including the U.S., to restore confidence in the banking systems.

by Frank James

The McCain campaign has a new negative web ad which seeks to further its effort to fuel questions in some voters' minds about Sen. Barack Obama. It's all a part of the "who is the real Obama?" theme the Republican nominee's campaign has been frenetically pushing in recent days.

The ad's thrust is that Obama knew Ayers better than the Democratic nominee has let on. Of course, the conclusion it hopes voters will reach through this allegation is that Obama hasn't been forthcoming on his ties to Ayers so how could he possibly be trusted in the Oval Office?

There's no news in the ad. The only news is that the McCain campaign is spending another day on this as economic anxieties continue to dominate voters' concerns.

Maybe the McCain campaign is hoping voters will transfer their worries about the economy to Obama and McCain's stock will rise as voters head into polling places a few weeks from now.

These web ads are made in part so journalists like me will pick them up and run with them, since we're suckers for them, which helps to spread them. So it's mission accomplished for the McCain people.

Here's the ad's transcript:

Script For "Ayers" (WEB :90)

When their relationship became an issue, Obama just responded, "This is a guy who lives in my neighborhood."

by Frank James

A lot of people thought last night's debate was really bad. Among them: Jim VanderHei and John Harris, the journalists who run the Politico.

A large excerpt:

With the country at one of its most interesting--not to mention terrifying--moments in a generation, John McCain and Barack Obama met in Nashville for what was surely one of the dullest and was definitely the least satisfying presidential debate in memory.

But the Belmont University showdown was something entirely different. Place the gravity of the moment next to the blah-blah-blah artifice of the rhetoric and overall insubstantiality of the evening and this is what you get: The worst presidential debate ever.

No wonder my eyes were crossing about halfway through. Actually, they started crossing earlier than that.

The writers fault the Commission on Presidential debates:

It would be hard to cook up a duller way of debating than we witnessed last night. The commission allowed the cautious handlers of the presidential campaigns to negotiate a format designed to limit improvisation, intellectual engagement and truth-telling.

It's not Brokaw's fault. Or Jim Lehrer's or Gwen Ifill's. The problem is the commission that has been invested with pseudo-constitutional status to run the debates but in fact weakly defers to candidates and clings to antiquated formats. No serious candidate would skip a debate. So the commission should use its leverage to insist that the debates are interesting to voters, rather than safe for candidates. Allow moderators to be more aggressive - and call-out candidates for lame answers- and then allow the candidates to go at it over the issues that matter most without time constraints.

by Frank James

by Frank James

The second presidential debate between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain comes at a time in the race when the Democratic presidential nominee has taken a significant lead in national polls though it's still in the single digits.

As the two men meet in Nashville at Belmont University tonight, their backdrop is a nation of rising economic worries, with companies shedding jobs, rising housing foreclosures, tight credit markets and declining values on Wall Street .

Thus, the economy will likely be the debate's main focus though not exclusively.

The debate, which starts at 9 pm ET, will be take the form of a town-hall meeting. This is McCain's favorite format so that would argue for him having a lot of confidence tonight. But Obama has done town-hall meetings too, so the format shouldn't necessarily give the Republican nominee that big an advantage.

So what are five things Obama and McCain need to do tonight besides avoiding any obvious gaffes?

-- Obama will help himself hugely if he connects with the voters in the room and the greater television audience beyond. He's no Bill Clinton, he's not warm and folksy by nature. But if he can make a connection tonight, that could help him win over some undecided voters. Look for him to approach members of the audience tonight as he answers their questions in an attempt to show he feels their pain. As he tries to make that connection, however, Obama can't shift too much. By most polls, he won the first debate. Clearly what he's doing is working. So he doesn't need to make any major changes since one of his strengths is his calm and collected demeanor. In 2000, Al Gore made the respect of markedly changing his approach from one debate to the next, which turned a lot of voters off.

-- Both candidates have to present a credible approach for reviving the financial markets and the overall economy that goes beyond the recently passed $700 billion bailout legislation. In the last debate, they allowed it to become a competition over their respective campaigns' economic talking points which got lost in the weeds. Without getting too granular, they need to tick off a few major points about what they would do. But most importantly, they need to project confidence and courage about the economy. McCain particularly has to do more to convince voters that he's got real answers for the current economic plight since as economic concerns have risen, his polling numbers have fallen.

by Frank James

Sen. John McCain continued his try and sow seeds of doubt about Sen. Barack Obama in voters' minds. He was doing so much sowing in Albuquerque, New Mexico he was a veritable Johnny Appleseed of questions about Obama, indignantly asking not only where his rival came from but where he would lead the country.

It was pretty hard-hitting and if it was any indication of what we can expect tomorrow at the second presidential debate, then that event has the potential to be pretty heated.

Here's some of what McCain said:

SEN. MCCAIN: My friends, I set out on my own campaign for president many months ago. I promised at the beginning to be straight with the American people, knowing that even those who don't agree with me on everything would expect at least that much. I didn't just show up out of nowhere. (Cheers.) After all, America knows me. You know my strengths and my faults. You know my story and my convictions....

by Frank James

A clearly buoyant Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin sat for an interview with Fox News's Carl Cameron in the wake of her vice presidential debate with Sen. Joe Biden which she survived quite well, especially since the expectations for her were pretty much at sea level.

Palin had great things to say about her first and perhaps last meeting with Biden. Listening to what she told Cameron, last night's debate was definitely good times. Here's an excerpt from the rush transcript provided by Fox News with the time codes. I haven't cleaned it up:

PALIN: 11: 00:10 There was a lot of eye contact and it was pleasant and it was, "Hey you know we're both in this together. We both understand what each other would be going through at this time." 11:00:19 Kinda wondering what's coming next, what Gwen is gonna ask us next. 11:00:23 So that connection, it was some good chemistry, and again at least I had a ball. It was fun.

But while she had good things to say about Biden, she wasn't showing Katie Couric a whole lot of love. Indeed, speaking of herself in the third person, she said the Palin in the Couric interviews was "annoyed" by the way Couric asked questions and followups.

Here's another excerpt:

PALIN: 11:04:41 Ok I'll tell you honestly the Sarah Palin in those interviews is a little bit annoyed because it's like, man, no matter what you say you're going to get clobbered. 11:04:49 If you choose to answer a question you are going to get clobbered on the answer. 11:04:53 If you choose to try and pivot and go on to another subject that you believe that Americans want to hear about you get clobbered for that too. 11:05:00 But in those Katie Couric interviews I did feel that there were a lot of things that she was missing in terms of an opportunity to ask what a V.P. candidate stands for. 11:05:09 What the values are represented in our ticket. I wanted to talk about Barack Obama increasing taxes which would lead to killing jobs. 11:05:18 I wanted to talk about his proprosal to increase government spending by another trillion dolars. Some of his comments that he has made about the war that I think may, in my world disqualifies someone from consideration as the next commander in chief. 11:05:32 Some of his comments about Afghanistan and what we are doing there supposedly -- just air raiding villages and killing civilians. That's reckless. 11:05:41 I wanted to talk about things like that. So I guess I have to apologize about being a little annoyed but that is also an indication of being outside that Washington elite, outside of the media elite also and just wanted to talk to Americans without the filter and let them know what we stand for. 11:05:55"

by Frank James

Our Media Curves research friends got real-time responses from more than a thousand self-identified Democrats, Republicans and independents last night during the vice presidential debate between Sen. Joe Biden an Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

The respondents responding by cell-phone in real-time indicated that Biden won on the issues that were tested with the all important independent group time and again. Here are some of the results.

Palin bingo. Why didn't we think of that? Someone has created bingo cards that contain a lot of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's favorite words and phrases like "hockey mom, maverick and glass ceiling." This could be fun.

A similar board could be made for Sen. Joe Biden, of course with some of his favorite words and phrases like "literally, ladies and gentleman, judgment and John" meaning McCain.

By Andrew Zajac

One of the weird little ironies in the massive failure of political leadership in Monday's defeat of the Wall Street bailout package involves the role of Republican Minority Leader John Boehner.

After striking a deal with Democrats, Boehner was unable to deliver his caucus. Somewhere, Vernal Riffe and Corwin Nixon are groaning and rolling their eyes.

Boehner has spent the last 17 years in the House, but he cut his political teeth in the Ohio House of Representatives under legendary Democratic Speaker Riffe and Minority Leader Nixon, a canny survivor of numerous plots against him by his own colleagues.

If Boehner learned nothing else from them, he should have learned how to count votes.

by Frank James

A new TV ad from Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign strives to tie Sen. Barack Obama to the nation's current economic anxiety by linking him to the subprime mortgage crisis which helped trigger the current financial quagmire by claiming that while the Republican nominee tried to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac the Democrat stood by "silent."

Called "Rein In," as in rein-them-in, the ad even features video of former President Bill Clinton blaming Democrats for impeding reform of the two government-sponsored enterprises that were taken over by the federal government a few weeks ago after they faced insolvency.

Here's the ad's transcript:

ANNCR: John McCain fought to rein in Fannie and Freddie.

JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

by Frank James

Take it for what it's worth, but according to the traders at Intrade Sen. Barack Obama now has a better than 63 percent chance of becoming president compared with Sen. John McCain's just over 36 percent chance of winning the White House.

Obama's trading chart with Monday's close.

McCain's trading chart with Monday's close.

By Andrew Zajac

Democrats in Ohio, already rolling a stone uphill in trying to deliver the Buckeye state for Barack Obama, aren't helping the cause with a series of self-inflicted wounds.

The latest is installing term-limited House Minority Leader Joyce Beatty in a ginned-up $320,000 per year job at Ohio State University. That's roughly quadruple her legislative salary and is more than several Ohio university presidents earn.

by John McCormick and Frank James

Sen. Barack Obama spoke to reporters on his plane today as he left Washington and headed south so he would be in place for tonight's scheduled presidential debate at the University of Mississippi, which now appears on again with recent word that Sen. John McCain apparently will attend after all.

Obama made a statement which lasted three minutes total as he stood in the middle of Row 14:

He said he has been talking today to Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Sen. Chris Dodd and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson ... "Over the last 24 hours, I've also had a few conversations with Republicans who are involved in the process."

"I am optimistic that we can get something done. I think that there is real progress being made this morning and last night and I think it's important that the markets seem to be staying relatively calm at this point. And at this point, my strong sense is that the best thing that I can do, rather than to inject presidential politics into some delicate negotiations, is to go down to Mississippi and explain to the American people what is going on and my vision for leading the country over the next four years. I'm looking forward to the debate and look forward after the debate to coming back to Washington and hopefully getting a package done."

Then he took questions:

Q: Has anything happened since the White House meeting to make you more optimistic?

OBAMA: "They're still working it through. Keep in mind that some of these proposals were very rough and sketchy, in outline form. So, I'll leave it up to people who are experts in the markets to make an assessment as to what's going to work. But I think what's important is just making sure that everybody in America knows that the parties are serious about getting something done."

by Frank James, updated at 12:45 pm

Sen. Barack Obama has a knack for having momentous events in his presidential campaign fall on important historic events.

His convention acceptance speech occurred on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.'s famous 1963 "I Have a Dream" speech.

And today, the scheduled date for the first presidential debate between Obama and Sen. John McCain is the 48th anniversary of President John Kennedy's famed 1960 debate with Vice President Richard Nixon in Chicago.

Of course, we're not sure if today's planned debate will actually happen since McCain has made the debate hostage to the negotiations over the proposed $700 billion Wall Street bailout occurring in Washington. At this stage it looks like it may not be Obama-McCain. More like Obama-empty chair.

-------------------------

Updated: Now we know that the debate will occur, at least if McCain doesn't change his mind again. McCain is headed to south and is scheduled to be in Oxford, Mississippi for his 3 pm walkthrough and mic check. So there won't be an empty chair after all, though it was fun for a while to consider the possibility

University of Mississippi students Tyler Craft (R) and Mario Hilliard (L), stand-in for John McCain and Barack Obama in rehearsals for tomorrow's scheduled presidential debate in Oxford, Mississippi. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/WireImage)

by Julia Keller

Snacks? Check. Beverages? Chilling. Sofa cushions? Plumped.

But hold on there--what if there's no debate?

For the folks who planned debate parties Friday night, for those who eagerly invited friends over to cheer and hiss at the appropriate moments, the news that the debate might be postponed creates the classic host's dilemma:

Cancel the whole thing or soldier on?

If you select the latter, what can you offer your guests--primed as they are to scream, holler, jump, gesticulate wildly and utter phrases such as, "He's a total moron!" at the screen at regular intervals--in lieu of the McCain-Obama verbal smackdown?

How do you satisfy a crowd hungry for argument, for controversy, for a good, old-fashioned metaphorical head-butt between two men in nice suits?

You can't just depend on the guests themselves to mix it up. Presumably, the friends you admit into your home are all like-minded politically: You're all nuts for Obama or you're all over the moon for McCain. So you can't depend on getting a lively skirmish going over the election.

What's left? What can you hurl at a crowd that's as ravenous for debate as a Doberman for a wad of raw hamburger? (Don't say "Cubs v. Sox." That's so 2005.)

To save your gathering, we've come up with some contentious topics guaranteed to turn your living room into a brawling, bad-tempered nest of ferociously feuding friends:

by Frank James

Used to be talking down the economy was something government officials weren't supposed to do, especially senior U.S. officials.

Conservatives often bashed liberals who they frequently perceived as trying to talk the economy into recession for political reasons. And on occasion liberals even attacked conservatives for allegedly cynically talking down the economy for the same reasons.

Now its open season on the economy. Everyone seems to be talking it down, particularly those top government officials who are usually so guarded in their public comments they won't even discuss in detail U.S. policy towards the value of the dollar for fear of affecting markets.

From President Bush, to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr. to Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, the message is the economy will essentially go down the tubes if Congress don't pass the $700 billion bailout "national rescue plan" quick, fast and in a hurry.

Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin even raised the stakes yesterday when she warned the nation could slide into a "depression" if the Bush Administration package weren't passed. Think about that for a moment--a would-be vice president during a hotly contested presidential race raising the specter of the D word.

Question: Are top federal officials (and those who would like to join that group) exacerbating the problem with their doom and gloom warnings?

As many have said in recent weeks, trust or faith, as in "full faith and credit" is a big part of what makes the U.S. economy possible. So much of what makes the economy work, consumer spending, is psychological. The president understands this. That's why in the weekend after the 9/11 attacks, he told Americans to continue shopping.

It could be argued that in his push to stampede Congress into passing its proposal quickly, Bush and other officials are eroding much of any trust that may be left in the U.S. economy.

It's hard to have keep one's faith in the economy up and not think about going into survivalist mode with larder stocked and shotgun loaded when you've got the president of the U.S. on prime time TV saying:

As a result, our entire economy is in danger... More banks could fail, including some in your community. The stock market would drop even more, which would reduce the value of your retirement account. The value of your home could plummet. Foreclosures would rise dramatically. And if you own a business or a farm, you would find it harder and more expensive to get credit. More businesses would close their doors, and millions of Americans could lose their jobs. Even if you have good credit history, it would be more difficult for you to get the loans you need to buy a car or send your children to college. And ultimately, our country could experience a long and painful recession.

This is clearly not a time for happy talk about the economy. But whatever happened to those fears about not talking down the economy? So much for we have nothing to fear but fear itself.

by Andrew Zajac

All over New York, investment bankers are preparing to open tins of cat food for supper tonight and what does some jokester do but make light of their plight.

Some people have no shame:

URGEN MESSAGE FROM NIGERIA, ER, AMERICA

Yours Faithfully Minister of Treasury Paulson

by Frank James

OK, so I'm late to the party on Chris Rock's appearance on David Letterman Monday night in which the comedian took out after former President Bill Clinton for not doing enough to promote Sen. Barack Obama's presidential candidacy. I only caught up with it today.

But I'm sure others haven't seen it, so that's my excuse for putting up today.

Anyway, the former president spent many minutes lauding Sen. Joe Biden and, of course, threw his wife's name in the conversation fairly frequently. He did say he supported Obama and that he thought in the end Obama would win because of the general desire for change.

But he definitely didn't do as much drum banging for Obama as he could have which Rock pointed out.

"Is that me or did he not want to say the name Barack Obama?" Rock asked Letterman.

He also has a great Sarah Palin-Michael Vick joke.

For those who've already seen this, good for you. But for those who haven't, I bet you'll get a laugh out of it.

Rock, who in the 1990s starred on Comedy Central's "Politically Incorrect," conceptual predecessor to the Daily Show with Jon Stewart and the Colbert Show, definitely keeps alive the spirit of that old show.

The Democratic National Committee's anti-McCain press kit lampooning his defense of Bermuda as a tax haven. Photo provided by the DNC.

by Frank James

Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign and the Democratic National Committee launched a coordinated campaign yesterday to zing Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain for comments he made that were supportive of Bermuda as an off-shore tax-haven.

The goal: to portray McCain as a friend to wealthy corporate CEOs and tax avoiders to weaken the Arizona Republican's claim to be a populist reformer. It was an obvious attempt to tap into the growing hostility towards Wall Street among voters.

The Obama campaign released a TV ad based on an article that appeared in Bermuda's Royal Gazette newspaper chronicling McCain's visit last year to the British colony.

The Arizona Senator, who spent three days on the Island this week meeting business and political leaders, said he understood the concerns of the insurance and reinsurance sectors about draft legislation proposing a clampdown on US business operations in so-called tax havens.

He told The Royal Gazette: "The industry, the re-insurance that's had such phenomenal success has been good for both nations. I would oppose any measures that would upset that."

McCain later received campaign contributions from insurance interests the Obama campaign links to that visit.

by Frank James

George Will, the nation's best-known conservative columnist and Chicago Cubs fan, may not be cutting an ad for Sen. Barack Obama but in his column today, he sure does seem to be expressing more confidence in the Democratic presidential nominee than in the Republican one, fellow conservative Sen. John McCain.

In his column today, Will repeated the criticism he made on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" that McCain's attack last week on Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Chris Cox was unpresidential and unbecoming.

Will attributes McCain's call to fire Cox, to McCain's personality which the columnist clearly doesn't believe is the most even-tempered, to say the least:

In any case, McCain's smear -- that Cox "betrayed the public's trust" -- is a harbinger of a McCain presidency. For McCain, politics is always operatic, pitting people who agree with him against those who are "corrupt" or "betray the public's trust," two categories that seem to be exhaustive -- there are no other people. McCain's Manichaean worldview drove him to his signature legislative achievement, the McCain-Feingold law's restrictions on campaigning. Today, his campaign is creatively finding interstices in laws intended to restrict campaign giving and spending.

A "smear" as "harbinger of a McCain presidency?" With those words, Will certainly isn't giving the McCain campaign anything it can use in an ad. That's pretty caustic stuff.

Will ends his column with these words:

It is arguable that, because of his inexperience, Obama is not ready for the presidency. It is arguable that McCain, because of his boiling moralism and bottomless reservoir of certitudes, is not suited to the presidency. Unreadiness can be corrected, although perhaps at great cost, by experience. Can a dismaying temperament be fixed?

While the columnist doesn't answer that question, he makes it pretty clear what side he comes down on.

Meanwhile, he indicates that Obama's defect--his relative lack of experience in national and foreign policy--is remediable by time. Not a full-throated endorsement but still rather striking coming from one of the nation's leading conservative writers.

by Andrew Zajac

Charles Black Jr., a top adviser to the McCain campaign, has been the subject of unflattering ads in recent days by the Barack Obama campaign connected to his lobbying for Chinese and Russian oil companies.

But Black's largely-overlooked lobbying for a Russian think tank closely linked to the Kremlin may be more intriguing, and more instructive in understanding the limitations of current lobbyist disclosure laws.

In 2005, Black (pictured with McCain, left, aboard McCain's campaign plane in an AP photo by Mary Altaffer) signed up to lobby for the awkwardly named Center of the Development of Information Society, headed at the time, by Leonid Reiman, the telecom minister for then-president Vladimir Putin.

Black's firm, BKSH & Associates Worldwide, was paid $50,000 for eight months work, but it's not clear from disclosure what, if anything, the firm did for the money.

by Frank James

The Bush Administration wants to get $700 billion, no strings attached, to buy up the bad assets of Wall Street financial institutions. Congress wants to attach strings.

That's pretty much where things stand as the week begins. The clash of the Washington titans, that is, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr. and the Democrats who control the Congress is about to begin in earnest.

On the Sunday talk shows, Paulson said the Bush Administration's rescue proposal is needed NOW, so Congress shouldn't bog things down by trying to expand the plan by adding direct relief for regular taxpayers.

Here's an exchange he had with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday:

MR. WALLACE: All right. Your immediate challenge now is to get this through Congress. And Democrats are saying, wait a minute. If you're going to bail out Wall Street, you've got to bail out Main Street.

We've had a lot of efforts, and I would sure -- I would be very, very surprised and disappointed if, at a time when the government owns a lot of these securities, we won't have more leverage to do that. And that should be a big focus.

by Frank James

Factcheck.org has caught Sen. Barack Obama seriously distorting Sen. John McCain's position on Social Security personal accounts as well as important details about Republican proposals for such accounts, all apparently to scare seniors out of their wits about the Republican nominee.

Factcheck.org reports the following in a summary of its analysis of charges Obama made while campaigning in Florida today:

In Daytona Beach, Obama said that "if my opponent had his way, the millions of Floridians who rely on it would've had their Social Security tied up in the stock market this week." He referred to "elderly women" at risk of poverty, and said families would be scrambling to support "grandmothers and grandfathers."

Obama would have been correct to say that many workers under age 58 would have had some portion of their Social Security benefits affected by the current market turmoil - if they had chosen to participate. And market drops would be a worry for those who retire in future decades. But current retirees would not have been affected.

In his more detailed analysis, Brooks Jackson also wrote that McCain hasn't made Social Security private accounts a central part of his campaign:

While McCain has voted in favor creating private Social Security accounts in the past, and endorsed Bush's 2005 proposal (which never came to a vote in Congress), he is not making a strong push for them as part of his campaign. In fact, a search for the term "Social Security" on the McCain-Palin Web site brings up the following: "No documents were found."

by Frank James

Senators John McCain and Barack Obama will be on the cover of October's Field & Stream magazine. ("McCain vs Obama: We question the candidates on guns and conservation" the teaser on the front tells us.)

I think I can guess which candidate most of Field & Stream's readers, those people in deer-hunting country clinging to their guns and religion, would tend towards. It'd be the one who picked a running mate who knows how to field dress a moose, but again that's only an educated guess.

I love the cover's main headline, "Find Your Bull." It obviously isn't meant to apply to the 2008 presidential campaign but could. And on a few different levels.

by Frank James (corrected from an earlier version which wrongly said Biden's remarks were made today. He made them yesterday.)

Sen. Joe "Working-Class Hero" Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, said yesterday in an interview we missed in real time that he's against the AIG bailout.

He made his emphatic point on the "Today" show to Meredith Viera.

VIEIRA: Let's start with AIG. You just heard Senator McCain say under his watch no bailout. What do you say?

BIDEN: No, I don't think they should be bailed out by the federal government. I'll tell you what we should do. We should try to correct the problems that caused this. And what's caused this? The profligate tax cuts to the very, very wealthy that John wants to continue. What's caused this is the failure to have regulation so that, in fact -- John talks about these CEOs getting these big bailout packages. Well, why didn't he support the legislation we have been proposing that says that if you're going to declare bankruptcy, you've got to throw the CEO in the mix as well as everybody else? Why didn't he support the proposals that we have to allow in bankruptcy a federal bankruptcy judge to renegotiate the principal of your mortgage? Why didn't he do something to help the middle-class people who are hurting very badly? Is their government and it's this government's policies that have caused them to get in great trouble.

by Frank James

Want to see how no misstep by the opponent escapes the keen opposition eyes in a presidential race?

Sen. Barack Obama put out a statement today on the AIG mess in which he said, in part:

"The fact that we have reached a point where the Federal Reserve felt it had to take this unprecedented step with the American Insurance Group is the final verdict on the failed economic philosophy of the last eight years.

Little problem with that which was pounced on by the Republican National Committee:

How can Barack Obama claim to know economic fundamentals when he doesn't even know what AIG is? This is the sort of economic naïveté that Americans cannot afford in a commander-in-chief.

Not sure I see the connection between misspeaking and economic naivite and competency to be commander-in-chief. If anyone else sees it, please chime in.

Plus, this was a statement written by someone in the campaign. Maybe Obama dictated it. More evidence for why we all would benefit from a good proofreaders.

Anyway, the RNC for its part provided a link to the offending Obama statement. The problem for the RNC is that the Obama campaign cleaned up the quote so now it says "International" where it before said "Insurance."

This is why most of us just say AIG and leave it there.

by Frank James

Feisty back-and-forth today between Senators John McCain, Barack Obama and the Republican National Committee. It came after the Republican presidential nominee suggested that a commission be set up to study how the Great Wall Street Meltdown happened.

That brought this dismissive response from Obama:

"This morning, instead of offering up concrete plans to solve these issues, Senator McCain offered up the oldest Washington stunt in the book -- you pass the buck to a commission to study the problem. (cheers, applause.) But here's the thing: This isn't 9/11. We know how we got into this mess. What we need now is leadership that gets us out. I'll provide it; John McCain won't. And that's the choice for Americans in this election." (Cheers, applause.)

That apparently drew blood because the RNC didn't let that one go. They issued the following statement:

"Obama has supported creating several commissions and applauded their results during his short career political career. Yet even on an issue as important as the country's economy, Obama is now putting politics first. In typical Washington fashion, Obama would rather attack John McCain than welcome a good bipartisan idea. Obama's attack is another example of his 'I-know-best' attitude that rejects the sort of consensus-building, open-minded leadership Washington needs." - Alex Conant, RNC spokesman

In 2006, Obama Supported An Ethics Commission. "Obama's plan also proposes a new ethics monitoring system, with an independent commission staffed with former judges and former members of Congress." (Marianne Means, "Congress Must Take Down 'For Sale' Sign," The Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 3/5/06)

by Frank James

New Jersey has been reliably Democratic in recent presidential elections. But the latest polling suggests it may not be so safely blue this time around.

Quinnipiac University's Polling Institute has a new poll that indicates that Sen. Barack Obama is essentially tied with Sen. John McCain right now, with Obama at 48 percent and McCain at 45 percent of likely voters in New Jersey.

The Quinnipiac pollsters write:

Fueled by a surge of support from white voters, Republican Sen. John McCain has narrowed a 10-point gap and now trails Democratic Sen. Barack Obama 48 - 45 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

But white women back McCain 50 - 42 percent, compared to 46 - 44 percent for Obama Aug. 13. Independent voters shift from 45 - 42 percent for Obama to 47 - 43 percent for McCain.

So it's white flight from the African-American guy, according to this poll. That's so New Jersey.

by Bay Fang

It was a forum on foreign policy, but one of the five secretaries of state on stage chose to make political news. In answer to a student question about whether electing the first African American president would send a message to other countries, Colin Powell, President Bush's first Secretary of State - and the first African American to hold the position - said it would be "electrifying."

He added, "I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for yet," saying he wanted to study their platforms and hear the debates before making a decision.

Speaking at an event at the George Washington University alongside four other former Secretaries of State, Powell elaborated that Sen. McCain had been a close friend and colleague for 25 years, but that he did not want to vote for him solely on the basis of their friendship, just as he did not want to vote for Obama just because he was a fellow African American.

A four-star general who served as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff before he became the 65th Secretary of State, Powell's endorsement is coveted by both parties. Although he remains a Republican, he has been critical of President Bush's handling of Iraq, and has said he would not have agreed with the decision to go to war had he known the evidence against Saddam Hussein was exaggerated. He has also voiced opposition to the Bush administration's treatment of prisoners at Guantanamo Bay.

by Frank James

Randall Kennedy, a Harvard University law professor, an African American and an Obama supporter (many will see that as redundant) has a really honest piece in the Washington Post in which he ruminates about his potential response should the Democratic presidential nominee loses.

If Obama loses, I personally will feel disappointed, frustrated, hurt. I'll conclude that a fabulous opportunity has been lost. I'll believe that American voters have made a huge mistake. And I'll think that an important ingredient of their error is racial prejudice -- not the hateful, snarling, open bigotry that terrorized my parents in their youth, but rather a vague, sophisticated, low-key prejudice that is chameleonlike in its ability to adapt to new surroundings and to hide even from those firmly in its grip.

I hope that I'll take to heart the wisdom offered by two of my students. "Obama losing," one wrote, "would be hurtful, but it still spells substantial progress. . . . Change WILL come -- the wheels have been set in motion." Declared the second: "Sometimes you have to believe in the change before it comes (and in the face of its apparent defeat) for the change to be possible."

by Frank James

Karl Rove was asked this morning on Fox New Sunday about truth in advertising, specifically campaign advertising and he had something unexpected to say.

He said Obama's campaign had ranged too far from the truth in at least one of its TV ads, the one in which it accused Sen. John McCain of being out of touch because he admitted to not knowing how to use e-mail. That was predictably Rovian.

But here was the surprise. Rove went on to say McCain's campaign had veered too far from the truth as well in attacking Obama.

According to Rove:

McCain has gone, in some of his ads, similarly gone one step too far in sort of attributing to Obama things that are, you know, beyond the 100% truth test.

This prompted a response from Democratic National Committee spokesman Damien LaVera:

"When Karl Rove says your campaign is dishonest, maybe its time to reevaluate."

Rove won't be written out of the Republican Party, however, for what he said. Far from it.

He still managed to stick the knife in Obama. And, here's what's really weird--he did it by doing the very thing he was decrying generally, by not telling the truth.

Rove continued the crocodile-tear outrage over Obama's "lipstick-in-a-pig" comment.

Then, in trying to make lemons out of lemonade, the architect of President Bush's two successful White House runs said the reason McCain doesn't use e-mail is because of his prisoner-of-war injuries. What?

This is a creative excuse not even McCain has offered. Instead, the senator from Arizona has indicated using e-mails or the Internet was something he just hadn't gotten around to.

Here's a large excerpt from a July 18, 2008 story from the Telegraph, a British newspaper:

...In facing Barack Obama, an opponent who is 25 years his junior and has made powerful use of the internet in his campaign, he is battling against claims he is stuck in the past.

by Frank James

The Planned Parenthood Action Fund is striking back at Sen. John McCain's controversial anti-Obama TV ad in which the McCain campaign misleadingly suggested that the Democratic presidential nominee, as a state lawmaker, supported the teaching of "comprehensive sex education" to kindergartners.

The PPAF is retaliating with its own ad in which it says the legislation Obama supported was actually an effort to teach young children to protect themselves from sexual predators.

As we reported earlier in The Swamp and as other journalists have said as well, the Illinois legislation called for the age-appropriate teaching of young children to instruct them on the difference between good touching and bad touching.

So the McCain ad distorts the legislation and the nature of Obama's support.

The ad says in part:

"Doesn't McCain want our children to protect themselves from sex offenders? Or after 26 years in Washington is he just another politician who will say anything to get elected?"

PPAF is calling to the McCain campaign to take the offending ad down.

Here's a snippet from PPAF's press release:

The Planned Parenthood Action Fund calls on the McCain-Palin campaign to immediately pull down their dishonest ad attacking Senator Barack Obama for supporting a bill intended to help protect children from sexual predators. The ad is doubly misleading because it misrepresents the substance of the bill. In 2003, Planned Parenthood worked with Illinois state legislators to introduce the bill highlighted in Senator McCain's negative ad.

The Planned Parenthood Action Fund also released it's own ad in response to the McCain campaign's false and dishonest attack ad against Sen. Obama. The ad, called "Another Politician," sets the record straight on Obama's support for a bill intended to help children recognize inappropriate touching and highlights John McCain's propensity to play loose with the facts.

by Frank James

Among the areas we can expect the Obama campaign and Democrats to come out swinging on today is on Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's answer, during her ABC News interview with Charles Gibson, that the U.S. has the right to launch military attacks against al Qaeda amd the Taliban inside Pakistan without prior approval of that nation's government.

Here's her exchange with Gibson:

GIBSON: Do we have the right to be making cross-border attacks into Pakistan from Afghanistan, with or without the approval of the Pakistani government?

PALIN: I believe that America has to exercise all options in order to stop the terrorists who are hell bent on destroying America and our allies. We have got to have all options out there on the table.

Sounds like a yes to me.

Now, during a August 2007 foreign-policy speech, Obama said:

I understand that President Musharraf has his own challenges. But let me make this clear. There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans. They are plotting to strike again. It was a terrible mistake to fail to act when we had a chance to take out an al Qaeda leadership meeting in 2005. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will.

Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Chicago Tribune photo by Michael Tercha.)

by Rick Pearson

Illinois' Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich admits he can't field dress a moose and his hunting targets tend to be more along the lines of state legislators in his own party who don't trust him.

But Blagojevich, who supports favorite son U.S. Sen. Barack Obama for president, today criticized Democrats for belittling the experience of Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, and took a jab at the work of legislators who run for executive positions.

Blagojevich, who has acknowledged in the past voting for Ronald Reagan for president, appeared on WGN-AM's Spike O'Dell show in Chicago this morning where he said he was a committed Obama supporter and predicted the Illinois senator would do "great things for America.

But Blagojevich, who said he spent two summers after high school working on the Alaska pipeline, readily defended the executive experience that governors have in contrast to legislators when it comes to being presidential material.

"I would hope the Democrats wouldn't say that about a governor," Blagojevich, a former state legislator and congressman, told O'Dell of criticism that the first-term Palin lacks experience.

"The reality is, governors every day have to make decisions for better or for worse. That's part of the job. It's an executive position. And it's a position that is like what you're going to do when you're president. Legislators, they do different things. They debate and they pass their bills back and forth," he said.

"But governors make decisions, and I think it's a tactical mistake for the Democrats to question Gov. Palin's experience when she's been a governor of a state," he said. "I don't think the size of the state is relevant. It's the kinds of decisions you have to make as governor. They (Democrats) should focus on the issues and why the policies of President Bush ought to be changed and I think that's what will help Obama win."

by Frank James

ST. PAUL, Minn. -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was a huge magnet for TV viewers, attracting nearly as many eyeballs as Sen. Barack Obama did on the last day of the Democratic convention, according to Nielsen, the audience-measurement agency.

Here's a thumbnail provided by Nielsen:

The Sarah Palin speech generated 37.2 million viewers, just 1.1 million viewers short of Barack Obama's record-breaking speech on Day 4 of the Democratic Convention. The Palin speech was carried on only six networks while the Obama speech was carried on ten (including BET, TV One, Univision and Telemundo).

Palin attracted a large female audience (19.5 million women, or 4.9 million more than Day 3 of the Democratic Convention).

Ratings for viewers 55+ (25.2) continue to be about ten times higher than for teens (2.2)
Day 3 for the GOP attracted more Hispanic viewers (1.4 million) than Day 3 of the Democratic Convention (1.2 million), even though Univision and Telemundo did not carry the speech.

The question now is: will Sen. John McCain be able to come anywhere close to Palin and Obama's viewership tonight when he accepts the Republican presidential nomination here in St. Paul, Minn.?

by Frank James

ST. PAUL, Minn. -- E-mails written by the Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, to a subordinate should raise questions about her judgment in the mind of any objective person.

Of course, such people are likely in the minority among the Republican delegates at the Excel Energy Center just as they were likely in the minority at last week's Democratic convention in Denver.

In any event, Palin wrote e-mails to Walt Monegan, the man who was then Alaska's public-safety commissioner in which she clearly expressed her dissatisfaction that Moneghan didn't crack down harder on her ex brother-in-law, a trooper, who was in a spat with the Palin family and had been involved in a custody tussle with Palin's sister.

The Washington Post got to see some of the e-mails Palin sent Monegan as part of what's being called Troopergate. It's hard to come away with anything less than the sense that she wanted something bad to happen to Mike Wooten, her former brother-in-law.

This snippet is from the Post's story:

"This trooper is still out on the street, in fact he's been promoted," said a Feb. 7, 2007, e-mail sent from Palin's personal Yahoo account and written to give Monegan permission to speak on a violent-crime bill before the state legislature.

"It was a joke, the whole year long 'investigation' of him," the e-mail said. "This is the same trooper who's out there today telling people the new administration is going to destroy the trooper organization, and that he'd 'never work for that b****', Palin'.)"

Palin and her staff have thrown up the defense that the governor and her family never directed anyone to discipline Wooten. They have said this with a straight face, presumably.

This and other e-mails clearly indicate she was unhappy with the way Wooten had been handled. She was telling this to a subordinate who was above Wooten in the law-enforcement food chain.

Subordinates tend to want to make their bosses happy because they know there can be nasty consequences if they don't.

by Frank James updated at 9:00 pm

Peggy Noonan has written an explanation to her "It's over" comment which can be found on the Wall Street Journal site. Bottom line: she wasn't referring to Sen. John McCain's presidential aspirations in the wake of his selecting Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his running mate.

Noonan says that when she, Republican political consultant Mike Murphy and NBC political analyst Chuck Todd were caught by an open microphone criticizing McCain's campaign, her "It's over" comment had a different context.

She was referring to the linkage between what the Republican base thinks and what the American people think.

Here's a lengthy snippet of her explanation:

Well, I just got mugged by the nature of modern media, and I wish it weren't my fault, but it is. Readers deserve an explanation, so I'm putting a new top on today's column and, with the forbearance of the Journal, here it is.

When the segment was over and MSNBC was in commercial, Todd, Murphy and I continued our conversation, talking about the Palin choice overall. We were speaking informally, with some passion -- and into live mics. An audio tape of that conversation was sent, how or by whom I don't know, onto the internet. And within three hours I was receiving it from friends far and wide, asking me why I thought the McCain campaign is "over", as it says in the transcript of the conversation. Here I must plead some confusion. In our off-air conversation, I got on the subject of the leaders of the Republican party assuming, now, that whatever the base of the Republican party thinks is what America thinks. I made the case that this is no longer true, that party leaders seem to me stuck in the assumptions of 1988 and 1994, the assumptions that reigned when they were young and coming up. "The first lesson they learned is the one they remember," I said to Todd -- and I'm pretty certain that is a direct quote. But, I argued, that's over, those assumptions are yesterday, the party can no longer assume that its base is utterly in line with the thinking of the American people. And when I said, "It's over!" -- and I said it more than once -- that is what I was referring to. I am pretty certain that is exactly what Todd and Murphy understood I was referring to. In the truncated version of the conversation, on the Web, it appears I am saying the McCain campaign is over. I did not say it, and do not think it. In fact, at an on-the-record press symposium on the campaign on Monday, when all of those on the panel were pressed to predict who would win, I said that I didn't know, but that we just might find "This IS a country for old men." That is, McCain may well win. I do not think the campaign is over, I do not think this is settled, and did not suggest, back to the Todd-Murphy conversation, that "It's over."

by Mark Silva and updated twice

BLOOMINGTON, Minn. -- Scratch two from the lineup of speakers at the increasingly uncertain Republican National Convention because of the onslaught of Hurricane Gustav:

President Bush and Vice President Cheney.

"Due to Hurricane Gustav, President Bush is unlikely to travel to Minnesota for the convention,'' White House spokesman Scott Stanzel told the Tribune this morning. "The White House is working on alternate plans, and we'll provide more information as we have it." Press Secretary Dana Perino added later in word to the White House pool that Bush will not appear at the convention.

The vice president "will not attend'' the convention, spokeswoman Megan Mitchell says. Cheney will remain in Washington with the president.

But First Lady Laura Bush still plans to attend, Perino said.

The president and vice president were slated to speak on opening night of the convention Monday.

The president spoke with New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin and let him know he was "getting ready to go through this with him,'' Perino added this morning. Nagin said the forecast didn't look good but he was pleased with the coordination of FEMA and Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, Perino said.

Equpment for the emergency is at an "unprecedented'' level, Nagin told Bush and the police are "strong.'' Nagin issued his own public warning from the podium today: Any looters caught taking advantage of the evacuation or emergency will go straigjht to Angola -- by which he means "the big house'' prison in Louisiana -- not the city jail.

Nagin reported that people appear to be heeding the order for evacuation and that the elderly are being looked after, Perino reported.

For Bush, the threat of another hurricane on the Gulf Coast three years after Katrina devastated the coast and New Orleans is too serious a situation to be taking part in a party celebration. He already has delcared states of disasters in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas to enable authorities to draw money for evacuation and preparation.

The president had been returning to Washington from vacation at his Texas ranch when Katrina struck. He had made a flight to California to speak there, and made a low overflight of the disaster area of New Orleans as he returned East -- the photo released by the White House of the president at the window of Air Force One meant to show concern became a symbol instead of his remoteness from the emergency.

Gustav, after reaching Category Four strength on Saturday, had returned to a Category Three storm this morning, with sustained winds of 120 mph. This was part of the 10 am ET bulletin from the National Hurricane Center: Katrina grew and subsided as well, and made landfall as a Three.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER. BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES ...85 KM.. .FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED 8-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 54 MPH... 86 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH...

DNC billboard that will greet Republicans attending next week's national party convention in St. Paul, Minn.

by Frank James

DENVER -- It's standard operating procedure for the each major political party to have a skunk-at-the-picnic operation at the opposing party's convention.

This week, high-profile Republicans, like Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty have been in Denver, attempting to spoil the festivities by attacking what they see as the vulnerabilities of the Democratic presidential nominee, Sen. Barack Obama.

Next week, will be the Democrats' turn in St. Paul and they're telling us what they're plans are. One big difference is that will be appreciated by footsore reporters is that the Democrats plan on setting up their anti-McCain war room across the street from the Xcel Center where the GOP convention will be held. The GOP's anti-Obama war room was about a mile away from the Pepsi Center.

Here's what we've received in an e-mail from a Democratic operative.

We're going to have these billboards and bus shelter ads throughout the Twin Cities. We'll also have a "More of the Same Media Center" set up across the street from the Xcel Center and a mobile billboard that will stalk McCain's stops on the run up to the convention. Any chance you can do a post on it?

-- Daily press conference with top notch national and local surrogates (with breakfast!). We'll have a satellite truck on hand to beam it all across the country.

by Frank James

DENVER -- Sen. Barack Obama got himself motivated for tonight's big presidential speech at Invesco Field by playing some hoops. Matthew Mosk of the Washington Post was the print pool reporter and wrote that no news was made:

No news

Obama gave a quick wave and a "hey guys, how ya doin'" on the way out the door.

by Frank James, updated at 6:49 PM

6:49 pm -- The deed is almost done. Clinton moves that a voice vote be taken and that the roll call be stopped. The crowd seconds. Nancy Pelosi asks for the ayes, and slams the gavel down before the nos can be heard. It's official.

6:46 PM -- Mayor Richard Daley is at the mike and Chicagoans are holding their breath since the mayor is not the best speaker. Illinois yields to New York. Sen. Hillary Clinton enters the hall with Sen. Charles Schumer at her side. The crowd sees her on the screen and cheers lustily. Senate Speaker Sidney Sheldon has the mike and hands off to Clinton who gets a loud ovation. Clinton speaks and says "in the spirit of unity, with faith in the party let's declare in one voice right here right now that Barack Obama is our candidate."

6:39 pm -- New Jersey cast all 127 of its votes for Barack Obama. New Mexico is the only state between us and Sen. Hillary Clinton who is to make a dramatic call for the convention to nominate Obama. Wait, New Mexico is yielding to Illinois which passed earlier. So it will take a little while longer to get to New York.

6:24 pm -- We're getting close, we're up to Minnesota, home of the winning ladies Duluth hockey team. Photographers are packed in around the New York delegation, waiting for the moment when Sen. Hillary Clinton asks for the roll call to be stopped and that a voice vote of the convention give the nomination to Sen. Barack Obama.

--------------------------------------------

I'm in the Pepsi Center now and the roll call of the states has started at the Democratic National Convention.

A Democratic source tells me that when the roll call gets to New York, Sen. Hillary Clinton will ask the convention chair that the convention approve the nomination of Sen. Barack Obama by acclamation. That's the deal that's been reached.

If it goes according to plan, it should be a pretty dramatic moment. California passing in the roll call was part of the plan. Arkansas's unanimous vote was apparently also part of the plan. That was a special moment since Clinton was once the long-time first lady of that state.

by Frank James

Nature never takes a holiday. It is no respecter of human calendars. Thus we have Tropical Storm Gustav which is churning through the Caribbean and headed according to hurricane experts into the Gulf of Mexico.

The storm has already claimed victims in Haiti and is raising concerns that it will become a category 3 hurricane before making landfall anywhere between the Florida panhandle and Texa's Gulf Coast. New Orleans, ravaged by Hurricane Katrina three years ago, is smack in the middle of the possible cone of probability and reports there indicate that worries there are rising.

Much of the city still bears the scars of the flooding that occurred as a consequence of levee failures after Katrina. And ever since the Army Corps of Engineers started the levee rebuilding project, there have been concerns in New Orleans and beyond about the adequacy of those efforts.

Beyond the anxiety Gustav is causing on the Gulf Coast, it is also jangling political nerves. With the storm on track to make landfall somewhere on the U.S.'s southern coast early next week, it could hit just as the Republican National Convention begins in St. Paul, Minn.

A category 3 storm striking the Gulf Coast would obviously divert attention from the politics of the moment, meaning the Republican convention. It's one thing to have to deal with Democratic attacks during a convention. Having to compete with a hurricane is completely of another magnitude.

Much of the national media will be decamping Denver where we've been covering the Democratic National Convention and heading to St. Paul for the GOP's big event. But if Gustav turns into a major storm, the best laid plans will have to change. Many a journalist here will be headed to the Gulf Coast.

Obviously, a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast would be a stark reminder of the Bush Administration's failed response to Katrina just as Republicans are trying to turn the page and to get voters thinking about Sen. John McCain.

Already, Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, who is scheduled to speak at next week's convention said he won't attend if his state is under attack from Gustav. Other Republican officals from the Gulf Coast region may have to make similar declarations.

by Dahleen Glanton

DENVER--Following reports of divisions within the Illinois delegation, Mayor Richard Daley Tuesday made a plea to state delegates to come together and support Barack Obama.

"We are cheerleaders for Barack Obama. That's why we are here," Daley told members of the Illinois delegation during a private reception that was attended by Michelle Obama. "We cannot allow anyone to divide us when it comes to the general election."

Daley acknowledged Clinton supporters saying, "Let's give tribute to them. They worked hard."

The mayor's remarks came a day after reports that Illinois State Senate President Emil Jones, a mentor to Obama, called an African-American Clinton delegate an "Uncle Tom." Jones has vehemently denied it.

Michelle Obama, who came on stage after Daley had spoken, told delegates that the campaign would "need Illinois like nobody's business," adding that the Republicans already have begun firing up their attacks.

"It's already gotten ugly. The higher Barack rises, the more mud will be slung. They are piling it on even while we're here," she said.

Though the campaign is confident it will carry Illinois, she said, they are not taking anything for granted.

In the coming months, she said, she will travel to battleground states such as Michigan, Iowa and Minnesota, and she urged Illinois supporters to make day trips to those states to knock on doors.

"Our opponents are trying to portray us as different, as something to be feared," she said.

"We need people who know us to speak on our behalf," she said. "You are more compelling than any attack ad that can be put on television."

by Frank James

In a few hours, Michelle Obama, the would-be first lady of the U.S., will make the most important speech of her life as she introduces herself, her husband and her family to the nation from the grandest stage she has yet occupied, the podium of the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

It's an understatement to say she has been controversial. There was her comment about being proud for the first time in her adult life because of the public's reaction to her husband Sen. Barack Obama's presidential candidacy.

There's the Harvard-trained lawyer with the great job at the University of Chicago Hospitals who got the big pay raise after her husband became a U.S. senator. There's the demeanor which seems to tell the world she's not going to lose much sleep one way or the other over what it thinks of her.

This has led to her being caricatured, especially by conservatives. Some have even called her an anti-white black militant. Those who say that of her probably have probably never met an anti-white black militant.

Still, this is the context she speaks within tonight. It's too much to ask of any one speech that it completely reorder the way many Americans already think about her. Even her husband, when he gave his famous convention speech in 2004, didn't have to remake himself on the national stage since most people didn't know him. He was, for most, a blank slate.

Likely the best this wife and mother can hope for is to show the side of her so many people find charming and impressive, to show her smarts but also a sense of humor, to show humility and to give people who don't know her a reason to like her and some of those who already have a negative opinion of her to change their minds, to give her a second chance. She has to give Americans a way to imagine her in the White House, and to be OK with that thought.

My colleague, Dahleen Glanton, wrote an excellent piece that appeared in today's Chicago Tribune that examines what Mrs. Obama needs to do tonight.

DENVER -- Michelle Obama likes to describe herself in simple terms--a mother, a lawyer and a wife who grew up in a blue-collar family in a Chicago working-class neighborhood.

by Rick Pearson

DENVER--An African-American woman who is an Illinois delegate for Sen. Hillary Clinton maintained today that Senate President Emil Jones, a mentor of Sen. Barack Obama, called her an "Uncle Tom" at the Illinois hotel for the Democratic National Convention.

Earlier today, Jones, a veteran African-American legislator who is resigning at the end of his term in January, denied using the racial slur and said he referred to Clinton delegate Delmarie Cobb as among the "Doubting Thomases" who should embrace Obama's candidacy as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

"Clearly that's not what he said," Cobb said, adding that Jones shouted the slur to her across the lobby of the Marriott hotel the delegation is staying at on Saturday night.

"When I went back to him and asked what he said--I said, 'Excuse me, what did you say?--he grabbed me by the shoulders and laughed," she said. "He didn't say anything. I asked, 'Did you call me an Uncle Tom?' He never said anything. At that point, I proceeded to call him a few things. Then I walked away."

Cobb said the comments from Jones reflect the pressures that have been placed on African-American women who backed Clinton's candidacy against Obama in the extended Democratic primary season.

"There's this feeling out here that we've somehow betrayed the race," Cobb said. "The attitude (from Obama supporters) is that they're going to beat you into submission and make you admit you were wrong for supporting Hillary."

She said, as she did in the 1988 contest, she evaluated which candidate had the best record for advancing the causes of African Americans. A decade ago, she said, it was Rev. Jesse Jackson.

(Photo by AP)

by Rick Pearson

DENVER--Already shunned for a national nominating convention speaking role by home-state Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign, Gov. Rod Blagojevich won't attend the Illinois Democratic delegation's opening breakfast Monday and may miss later podium appearances by three potential rivals.

Sources close to Blagojevich, who were not authorized to speak about his schedule, said Sunday that the governor was considering traveling to Denver either Monday night or Tuesday, following a possible news conference in Illinois.

The Democratic National Convention's opening theme is Obama's life story, in part delivered through narratives by a host of Illinois characters.

Michelle Obama, the candidate's wife, will be the featured act, speaking after a lineup that includes her brother, Oregon State basketball coach and Chicago native Craig Robinson.

And there's the Illinois Democratic up-and-comers, seeking their moment on a convention stage that vaulted Obama to political stardom four years ago. Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan, Comptroller Dan Hynes and Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, possible contenders for governor in 2010, are scheduled to speak as are U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. and former Obama state Senate colleague, Chicago City Clerk Miguel del Valle.

by Rick Pearson

DENVER--Sure there's all that talk that Sen. Joe Biden brings to Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign some gravitas on the issues of foreign affairs and national security. But the choice of Biden as Obama's running mate also reflects some of the synergy among the Illinois senator's senior strategists.

One of Biden's top advisers for his short-lived 2008 presidential campaign was David Wilhelm, an ex-Chicagoan who formerly chaired the Democratic National Committee and was the 1992 campaign manager for Bill Clinton.

Wilhelm, who is a superdelegate from Ohio, also was Biden's Iowa campaign director in the Delaware senator's ill-fated 1988 presidential run. This time around, after Biden dropped from the race, Wilhelm jumped to the Obama camp in February this year, serving as a strategist and wooer of superdelegates in the extended primary battle against Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York.

Wilhelm also was a key player in the first political campaign for Obama campaign manager David Axelrod, the 1984 U.S. Senate race in which Paul Simon defeated Republican incumbent Charles Percy. Wilhelm and Axelrod worked together on Clinton's presidential campaign. And Wilhelm also ran the 1989 and 1991 campaigns of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, one of Axelrod's major political clients.

And who served as a political director of Biden's brief 1988 campaign? Bill Daley, the brother of the Chicago mayor, who went on to become a commerce secretary under Clinton and is now exploring a potential 2010 run for Illinois governor.

by Frank James

Senators Barack Obama and Joe Biden appeared in Springfield, Ill. today to introduce their new presidential ticket, with Obama, the all-but-official Democratic presidential nominee, making a strong case for why he made Biden his vice presidential pick and Biden making the case that Obama was just the candidate to bring change to Washington.

Before an enthusiastic crowd of thousands of supporters on a stiflingly hot summer day, on the steps of the old State Capitol where Abraham Lincoln once served as a lawmaker, Obama painted a portrait of Biden as a man whose great personal strength which allowed him to survive adversity and faced down tyrants would make him a great vice president.

Obama emphasized the foreign policy credentials that the senator from Delaware is known for, trying to draw the contrast between the Bush Administration's foreign policy of the past eight years and Biden's approach.

Over the last eight years, he has been a powerful critic of the catastrophic Bush-McCain foreign policy, and a voice for a new direction that takes the fight to the terrorists and ends the war in Iraq responsibly. He recently went to Georgia, where he met quietly with the President and came back with a call for aid and a tough message for Russia.

Joe Biden is what so many others pretend to be - a statesman with sound judgment who doesn't have to hide behind bluster to keep America strong.

But the senator from Illinois also ticked off many of Biden's domestic accomplishments, including legislation to better protect women from domestic violence and to place more police on the streets of U.S. cities, the latter which Obama said helped lead to a significant decline in the crime rate in the 1990s.

All the while, Obama painted Biden as a fighter with a common touch. The fighter part was important since many Democrats have believed that Obama needed a running mate who could go hammer and tongs after Sen. John McCain, a long-time friend of Biden's.

Obama referred to Biden as "stiil that scrappy kid from Scranton who beat the odds," and a "dedicated family man and committed Catholic who knows every conductor on that Amtrak train to Wilmington. That's the kind of fighter who I want by my side in the months and years to come."

by Frank James

Sen. Barack Obama returns to Springfield, Ill. today to, we assume, once again channel the spirit of Abraham Lincoln (he certainly can't be meaning to channel the spirit of the Illinois state legislature), this time to announce his choice of vice presidential running mate, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware.

Springfield, of course, is where Obama officially announced his audacious run for the White House in February 2007. Then, he was the upstart going after the hands-down favorite for the Democratic presidential nomination, Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Today, however, the 47-year-old Obama strides into Springfield, a political Colossus towering over his party as he prepares to head for Denver to accept his party's nomination for the presidency.

The challenge facing Obama, as he and Biden get ready to bask in the cheers of adoring Democrats in Springfield today, is how does he deal with the very strong argument that his choice of Biden underscores the experience gap between Obama and Sen. John McCain?

What's more, the nation has run a similar experiment over the last almost eight years with the initially less experienced President Bush and the much more experienced Vice President Cheney. Judging from the opinion polls, many Americans don't particularly like the way that experiment worked out.

Meanwhile, the choice of Biden, who's been in the Senate since 1972, steps on Obama's central message of "change." It would have been harder for Obama to find a more old-Washington insider if he had tried.

Still, Democrats here in Denver where I'm at appear to be accepting the Biden all right. On the rental-car shuttle bus last night, when I told some California delegates who didn't know the news that Biden was the choice, they seemed perfectly fine with it. They liked that Biden knows how to give as well as he gets.

by The Swamp team

With so much attention on whom Sen. Barack Obama is going to choose as his vice presidential running mate, we thought we'd try to monitor the rumors and speculation and try to separate the wheat from the chaff.

UPDATE:

Finally, perhaps a little wheat as we reach 9 p.m. in the East. NBC News is reporting, citing sources, that Sen. Evan Bayh and Gov. Tim Kaine are out of the running. These two were, of course, the hot picks for much of the early selection process.

If the report is true, it would seem to point to two possible scenarios: That the job really is Sen. Joe Biden's (with perhaps Gov. Kathleen Sebelius on the rail) -- or there will be a surprise, out of nowhere, pick such as Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Tex) or even, dare we say, Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) or Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY.).

Politico reported Friday that Clinton had not even been vetted by the Obama camp, to which the Obama campaign responded by saying Clinton has been the most heavily vetted candidate in American history.

So we might know a little more than we did before. And if you have stock in Bayh or Kaine, might be time to dump it.

Got your phone charged?

UPDATE:

Our colleagues at Word on the Street, RedEye's pop culture dictionary blog, have a new word referring to the great wait for Obama's announcement: techulation.

"I'm tired of waiting," they say. "Rather, I'm tired of hearing about the waiting. When will Sen. Obama announce the winner of the veepstakes, the search for his wingman?

"While we wait, techulation is the endless speculation of when Obama will text America about his VP choice."

UPDATE:

What's Obama up to? It just hit 6 p.m. in the East. Now, speculation, inevitably, has turned to this evening, with the idea that the electronic puff of white smoke may come during prime-time. Does the campaign get a rate break if it texts after 8?

The Swamp spoke to political strategist Sarah Flowers, who orchestrates Democratic media campaigns, to try and understand the Obama strategy:

"The Obama team is using the vice-presidential pick to extend and tee up the coverage of the convention," Flowers said. "By letting speculation slowly ramp up, they are gaining better control of the message and the ability focus the coverage going into those critical days in Denver. This strategy also enables them to block McCain out, making it difficult for him to garner positive press attention for a longer stretch of time."

So that plan, from the Obama point of view, may be to try and create a seamless flow of coverage from the announcement to the rally in Springfield, Ill. Saturday, to the start of the convention Monday.

But all it means for us is that we have to keep taking our Blackberrys everywhere--and we mean everywhere.

UPDATE: With no real news to report, ABC has resorted to writing about cute little children who sold lemonade to reporters staked out in front of the home of Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.). Apparently the kids, who were selling the drinks at a dollar a pop, made a killing.

UPDATE: To pass the time, here is New York Times columnist David Brooks on Joe Biden and why he might help with Obama's problem attacting white, blue-collar voters:

Barack Obama has decided upon a vice-presidential running mate. And while I don't know who it is as I write, for the good of the country, I hope he picked Joe Biden.

Biden's weaknesses are on the surface. He has said a number of idiotic things over the years and, in the days following his selection, those snippets would be aired again and again.

But that won't hurt all that much because voters are smart enough to forgive the genuine flaws of genuine people. And over the long haul, Biden provides what Obama needs:

Working-Class Roots. Biden is a lunch-bucket Democrat. His father was rich when he was young -- played polo, cavorted on yachts, drove luxury cars. But through a series of bad personal and business decisions, he was broke by the time Joe Jr. came along. They lived with their in-laws in Scranton, Pa., then moved to a dingy working-class area in Wilmington, Del. At one point, the elder Biden cleaned boilers during the week and sold pennants and knickknacks at a farmer's market on the weekends.

His son was raised with a fierce working-class pride -- no one is better than anyone else. Once, when Joe Sr. was working for a car dealership, the owner threw a Christmas party for the staff. Just as the dancing was to begin, the owner scattered silver dollars on the floor and watched from above as the mechanics and salesmen scrambled about for them. Joe Sr. quit that job on the spot.

Even today, after serving for decades in the world's most pompous workplace, Senator Biden retains an ostentatiously unpretentious manner. He campaigns with an army of Bidens who seem to emerge by the dozens from the old neighborhood in Scranton. He has disdain for privilege and for limousine liberals -- the mark of an honest, working-class Democrat.

Democrats in general, and Obama in particular, have trouble connecting with working-class voters, especially Catholic ones. Biden would be the bridge.

Read the rest here.

UPDATE: Well, 3 p.m. came and went and no announcement. It must have been like those text hoaxes detailed below.

Our national security correspondent, Aamer Madhani, reports that he has not been vetted and is not a serious candidate for the job. And if chosen, he will decline.

That's all the news we have at the moment.

So, it's getting late on a Friday afternoon and part of the talk around here is why Obama is waiting so long to make the announcement. What is the media strategy at work here now? When will he pull the trigger? Conventional wisdom had him announcing the choice this morning.

Now, we are entering the weekend news cycle, when many Americans do things other than read newspapers, surf the web or watch cable news. Has Obama made a mistake in waiting this long? Weigh in below.

by Frank James

Democrats have a new ad in which they ridicule Sen. John McCain for not knowing how many houses he owns. The Democratic National Committee give us some people-on-the-street interviews in which people say, not surprisingly, they know how many homes they have. Or don't have.

If you're part of the campaign team for the all-but-official Republican presidential nominee, you have to be worried that these sorts of ads could play out for weeks and really change the way voters see your candidate.

If the DNC and Sen. Barack Obama keep hammering on the houses, the fear has to be that instead of voters seeing a straight-talking war hero and maverick politician whenever they see McCain they'll instead see that guy who doesn't know how many houses he has.

We can expect that we will be hearing about McCain's house doubts aplenty from the podium of the Democratic National Convention next week.

Who knows, Obama may even work it into his acceptance speech. This is unquestionably a major headache for McCain's communications people.

by Frank James

Like many a Washington journalist, I enjoy few things more than a good knock-down, drag-out partisan fight between presidential campaigns. And that's what we have now with the punching, and counterpunching between the Team McCain and Team Obama over housing.

It was all brought on by Politico's Mike Allen, the hardest working reporter in Washington, who asked Sen. John McCain what we all assumed before now was a simple question with a simple answer: how many houses do you own? to which the senator, stunningly, responded with uncertainty, saying he would have to ask his staff.

This of course was the equivalent of leading with your chin and Sen. Barack Obama tried to take advantage of the opportunity to land a hay maker, after which the McCain campaign responded with a flurry of its own punches intended to put Obama on the ropes, including the patented Tony Rezko uppercut, first used with great effect by Sen. Hillary Clinton in a primary debate.

But, let's face it, this is essentially one of the silliest fights of this campaign season yet. Both men are wealthy, with McCain having the good fortune (and let's underscore fortune) of marrying a brewery heiress.

Meanwhile the Obamas, though nowhere near as loaded as the McCains, have become wealthy by dint of the senator becoming a best-selling author of autobiographies.

So here we have two wealthy candidates trying to convince voters, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck, that the other is so flush that he is out-of-touch with them. It's hard to picture either man shopping, let alone working, in a Wal-Mart.

Does Lewis Black even have to write material with this going on?

But then, as I write this, I'm starting to think that maybe it does matter. Here's how.

by Frank James

Mocking Sen. Barack Obama's celebrity and the quasi-religious fervor he has inspired in some voters, the Republican National Committee is reprising its popular ad called "The One," this time with "The One - The Road to Denver," an obvious reference to next week's Democratic National Convention at which the senator from Illinois will become, if all goes to plan, the first African-American to receive a major political party's presidential nomination.

When something's working in politics, you tend to see more of it. And from the latest polls, it appears that what Sen. John McCain's campaign as well as the RNC have been doing to make Obama less appealing appears to be working.

So we'll probably be seeing even more sequels to "The One" before it's all said and done in November.

by Frank James

The Federal Elections Commission voted six-zip today to ratify Sen. John McCain's position that he didn't pledge public-campaign funds to get a bank loan that helped keep his campaign afloat earlier in the election cycle. .

McCain, one of the author's of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance legislation, agreed to accept public financing for the general election. That means that after the Republican National Convention he will receive $84 million in public financing.

Before than however, McCain has been raising and spending as much campaign cash as possible.

At one stage when his campaign was really struggling for funds last year, McCain received bank loans to help keep his campaign afloat.

The Democratic National Committee alleged that McCain had used the promise of campaign funds as collateral and that by doing so he had broken the law. Not only that, if McCain had indeed pledged those future public campaign funds as collateral, he would be required to abide by federal campaign spending limits.

But the FEC, which is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, followed the recommendation of its legal counsel whose conclusion was that McCain hadn't really pledged the public funds as collateral, after all, at least not according to a 2003 precedent set when the commission ruled on a situation involving former congressman and presidential candidate Dick Gephardt.

According to the FEC's lawyers' memo to the commission:

... Senator McCain did not pledge public funds for security for private financing and may withdraw from the Matching Payment Program. Both the bridge loan regulation at 11 C.F.R. § 9035.1(c)(3) and the bank loan regulation at 11 C.F.R. § 100.82 contemplate an unambiguous pledge of the funds as collateral and some provision in the loan agreement for the funds to be made available to the lender for purposes of retiring the debt. Here, neither the original agreement nor the "in-out-in" provision unquestionably pledges funds nor provides for any funds to be made available to Fidelity and Trust Bank. Consequently, Senator McCain never reached the "point of no return" for withdrawal from the Matching Payment Program.

In sum, we conclude that the Matching Payment Act permits withdrawal unless the candidate has actually received public funds or pledged them as security for private financing. We recommend that the Commission determine that Senator McCain may withdraw from the Matching Payment Program because he did not receive public funds nor pledge public funds as security for private financing.

by Evan Halper

Gee, they're just like many married couples, minus the celebrity and millions of dollars. Sometimes they forget to mention to each other that they're going on national TV to say something important.

With California's Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger now scheduled for a prominent speaking slot at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, rumors abound that California First Lady Maria Shriver may make her own prime-time appearance -- with her family's Democrats in Denver next week. (This report about Gov. Schwarzenegger and First Lady Shriver, pictured here in an AP photo, comes to you from the L.A. Times' Top of the Ticket.)

The governor appeared ready to put that rumor to rest during an interview with The Los Angeles Times on Tuesday. "I have not heard her at all mention that," Schwarzenegger said. "So I doubt it."

Well, as her husband, he would know. Right?

"Not necessarily," the governor said.

"Remember, the last time she went to endorse [Barack] Obama, she did it in a way driving up from Palm Springs, she calls me and said, 'I just talked to Oprah and she's there and blah, blah, blah and said what do you think? And I said, 'Go ahead. Do it.'

And she endorsed Obama at a Los Angeles rally.

"Those things happen as much as me going to The Tonight Show and announcing my [gubernatorial] candidacy where she maybe is, you know, I come home and she is flipping out over that."

"It is kind of more," the governor said, pausing a moment for the right English word -- "casual.''

by Frank James

More bad news for Sen. Barack Obama's campaign on the polling front. The latest George Washington University-Battleground 2008 Poll done jointly by Republican and Democratic pollsters shows that Sen. John McCain has managed to move independent voters to him to such a degree that he now leads Obama by 10 percent. Back in May, Obama led with independents by 14 percent.

Obviously, this is a huge swing. Republican pollster Brian Tringali and his Democratic counterpart Celinda Lake suggested, at a National Press Club event this morning, that some of it may be due to both Democratic and Republican candidates solidifying their respective bases, reducing the size of independent constituency in the electorate. (You can watch a recording the Tringali and Lake's event on C-Span's website.)

The Battleground 2008 poll has the race overall essentially tied with McCain at 47 percent and Obama at 46 percent. Back in May, Obama had a three percentage point lead on McCain, basically tied at that point too.

Here is a piece of the analysis (read spin) by Republican pollsters Tringali and Brian Nienaber of the Tarrance Group:

by Frank James

The Democratic National Committee has an answer for the Republican National Committee's "Obama energy-plan" tire gauges. Those tire gauges, of course, were the Republicans' way of belittling and making sport of Sen. Barack Obama's comment that millions of barrels of oil could be saved--as much as could be extracted from off-shore drilling--if Americans made sure their vehicle tires were properly inflated.

The RNC tire gauges were first distributed to reporters, than used as a fund-raising tool on the RNC site.

The Democrats have come back with a press kit that includes a couple of campaign buttons, a bumper sticker and a rubbery little toy oil drum that bear the message "Exxon McCain '08, the obvious message being that McCain is a flunky for the oil industry. The kit is timed to counter Sen. John McCain's visit to a Gulf of Mexico oil platform today.

The DNC sees the oil can as a twofer: it not only pushes their "ExXon McCain line but is also meant to tweak the McCain candidate for limiting media access to the candidate who heretofore was famously known for his bull sessions with reporters which would continue to the point of exhaustion--theirs not his.

This from their press release:

Your friends at the Democratic National Committee are delighted to provide you with a complimentary Exxon-McCain '08 campaign kit.

Since we know how stressful it has been to watch your access to the candidate diminish under Steve Schmidt's new rules, we hope you'll accept this oil barrel-shaped stress ball along with some additional Exxon-McCain '08 paraphernalia. It is the least we can do.

by Frank James

What to make of this dust-up over whether Sen. John McCain was or wasn't in the "cone of silence" before he went on stage for the civil forum on the presidency at Saddleback Church Saturday night?

For those who aren't aware of the controversy, some of Sen.Barack Obama's people have reportedly suggested that McCain, who took the stage second, may have heard the questions Rev. Rick Warren asked Obama who appeared first by virtue of a coin toss. He was supposed to be in a "cone of silence" but wasn't is the suggestion.

The implication of course is that the reason McCain performed so well, delivering crisp, punchy answers with compelling anecdotes compared with Obama's more cerebral, cool and abstract responses, was because the senator from Arizona allegedly had an unfair advantage.

The McCain campaign denies that the all-but-official Republican nominee had such an advantage and they are pretty upset at insinuations that he did.

I don't know if McCain cheated (seems like we should take his campaign at its word unless evidence to the contrary emerges) but it doesn't seem that he would have had to.

Anyone who has listened to McCain's speeches or town hall appearances from the last year recognized much of the material the Republican used as straight from the campaign stump.

McCain frequently appeared to be responding to the questions, the general shape of which both campaigns were informed of beforehand, then plucking the appropriate pieces of his stump schtick from memory and plugging them in.

by Frank James

Here's a way of analyzing campaign contributions that makes for sort of a dog-bites-man story--Republican Sen. John McCain has received much more in campaign contributions from professional sports-teams owners and their families than Sen. Barack Obama, according to a story in Politico.com.

McCain has raked in $3.2 miliion from sports team owners, more than five times the amount Obama received.

This seems unsurprising since sports-teams owners are obviously very wealthy businesspeople who inhabit a world populated mainly by individuals who appreciate candidates with low-tax, light-regulation stances.

The relevant point is made by Bob Johnson, owner of the NBA Charlotte Bobcats and a former Hillary Clinton supporter who, after she quit the campaign, starting contributing hugely to Obama.

"I don't think there's any correlation between being a sports owner and supporting John McCain. I think there's a correlation between being a businessman and supporting John McCain," said Johnson.

As for the owners of the Bobcats' NBA opponents, Johnson said they seldom talk politics, except to joke about it. "Some NBA owners are Republicans. Some NBA owners are Democrats," he said. "But one thing they have in common is they're all businessmen."

by Frank James

Slate's often provocative media critic Jack Shafer provokes again, questioning why 15,000 reporters are going to the political conventions which he says are news-free gatherings. Shafer comes to bury conventions, not to praise them.

With just one exception over the last three decades, the two major parties have known the identity of their likely presidential candidate weeks or even months before gaveling their national political conventions open. For that reason, one way to improve coverage of the four-day, quadrennial conventions of Republicans and Democrats would be for the TV networks to assign sportscasters like Bob Costas, Joe Morgan, and John Madden instead of political journalists to report on the gatherings. They know how to make a game with a foregone conclusion seem entertaining.

A still better way to improve convention coverage would be to withdraw all reporters and force the curious to rely on a C-SPAN feed: Unless a brokered convention threatens to break out, these political gatherings tend to produce very little real news. Yet the networks, the newspapers, the magazines, and the Web sites continue to insist on sending battalions of reporters to sift for itsy specks of information. According to Forbes, 15,000 pressies are expected to attend each of the conventions. Slate, I'm embarrassed to admit, is sending a team of eight to Denver and six to St. Paul. Attention! Don Graham! We're spending your cash like it's Zimbabwean bank notes!

One argument for covering the quadrennial party conventions is that they are the largest gatherings of politicians and activists that occur, thus making it one stop shopping for political reporters where a lot of useful connections can be made with party officials and others from around the nation.

by Frank James

Florida, with its 27 electoral votes, is the fourth richest prize available to the presidential candidates, trailing only California, Texas and New York. Importantly, it is the only potential swing state among them.

Couple that knowledge with how fiendishly close the election was in 2000 and how only a few hundred Florida votes shifted history's course and one would assume that Florida would be the place where both candidates would be currently waging the TV ad air war in earnest. But you would be wrong to assume that.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, while Sen. Barack Obama has run thousands of local TV ads in Florida, 9,785 to be exact, McCain hasn't run any local ads. Zilch. Zippo. Nada.

In Florida's living rooms, the presidential contest so far has been a landslide -- Barack Obama, 9,785; John McCain, zero.

Sen. McCain does get some exposure to Florida television viewers through national buys on NBC during the Olympics and on cable news channels.

by Matthew Hay Brown, updated with Boehner aide response

House Minority Leader John Boehner used some vivid language last week to describe the political consequences House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would face for refusing to hold a vote on expanding offshore drilling.

Now Pelosi's top deputy is urging him to take it back.

Boehner, who has joined the Republican protest demanding that Pelosi call the House back from the August recess to vote on a GOP energy bill, was asked Friday about the possibility of a special session in which Democrats focused on other issues, such as children's health insurance, without tackling drilling.

"She's gonna bring us back and not deal with it?" asked the Ohio Republican, as quoted by Politico. "The American people are gonna hang her."

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, who has enjoyed a cordial relationship with Boehner, said he was "disappointed" by the "inappropriate comments."

"Republicans are clearly frustrated that the American public is not buying their Johnny-one-note energy policies of the past, but such comments are harmful to a useful debate over our nation's future," the Maryland Democrat said. "I hope the Minority Leader will apologize for his remarks, and work with Democrats in a bipartisan, constructive manner to increase our domestic oil supply, invest in renewable energy and end our dependence on foreign oil."

A spokesman for Boehner said today that the minority leader had "used a figure of speech to reflect the frustration Americans feel every time they fill up at the pump."

by Frank James

It seems everything has a Washington connection, even Isaac Hayes who died yesterday at age 65.

For instance Hayes, an American original of a singer, songwriter and self-styled Black Moses, gave an important endorsement to Rep. Steve Cohen, the white lawmaker who represents Memphis and handily beat a black attorney in last week's Democratic primary.

Cohen, who received 79 percent of the vote in his mostly black district, obviously didn't need Hayes's hot-buttered soul of an endorsement to win, but it certainly didn't hurt. A local Memphis news station did a segment on Hayes's endorsement.

Meanwhile, earlier this year the presidential campaign of Sen. Barack Obama was fond of using the 1960s classic r&b song "Hold On, I'm Coming" which became was a hit for the singing duo, Sam and Dave. Hayes co-wrote that song with its unique origin.

During a recording session, Hayes was getting impatient waiting for his songwriting partner, David Porter, to return from the restroom and began yelling for him to hurry up. "Hold on, I'm coming" Porter shouted back. A hit was born.

Anyway, the Obama liked that song a lot. Obama's supporters enjoyed changing the lyrics to "Hold On, Obama's Coming."

But Sam Moore, half of Sam and Dave and the song's owner, didn't like the Obama's campaign use of it, so he asked them to cease and desist from using it which they did.

Maybe Hayes's "Hyperbolicsyllabicsesquedalymistic" is still available?

In any event, rest in peace Black Moses. Your funky, lush music provided a partial soundtrack for the lives of millions.

by Mark Silva

They turned out today, some who have trod the presidential nominating path and some who haven't, at the historic homestead of Adlai Stevenson II, to take stock of what has happened to the presidential nominating process and "the profound changes in the way America selects its presidential candidates.''

Sens. George McGovern, Richard Lugar and Adlai Stevenson III joined the Rev. Jesse Jackson, Alderman Edward Burke and Rep. John B. Anderson in Mettawa, Ill., in a talk moderated by presidential historian Richard Norton Smith at the inauguration of the Adlai Stevenson Center for Democracy.

The talk was followed by a "Grand Jollification" (19th Century parlance for a political celebration). The center, dedicated to enhancing democracy worldwide by assembling practitioners and veterans of politics, is named for the Illinois governor from 1949-53 who ran for president as a Democrat in 1952 and '56 and served as U.S. representative to the United Nations from 1961 until his death in 1965.

"For Adlai Stevenson II, democracy was not a means to acquiring and retaining power, said his son and center chairman, Stevenson III. "It was a means of empowering the people with truth. Trust the people with the truth, he said, trust their decency and good sense. What wins is more important than who wins.''

Words worth considering today.

The center is housed in a home built by the former governor in 1938. In 1969, it was sold to Jane and Edison Dick, longtime friends of the Stevensons. They donated the estate to the Lake County Forest Preserves in 1974. Restored with a grant from the state, it is a designated Illinois Historic Site and on the National Register of Historic Places. For more on the Stevenson Center, see their Web-site here.

by Mark Silva

The Yippies are at bat this afternoon in Denver.

Or at least a gang calling themselves Yippies Colorada is getting ready to hoist some 42-inch inflatable baseball bats, red, white and blue with obligatory peace symbols. They're planning some "street theater'' for the sort of demonostrations that could come in handy at the Democratic National Convention at month's end, they say. Their rallying cry: "Make fun, not war.''

The so-called peace bats are offered as nonviolent alternative to the sticks used to beat back demonstrators at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago 40 years ago.

"If the police used peace bats instead of billy clubs, no one would get hurt and the laughter and merriment that would ensue would be sure to cripple any thoughts of real violence on both sides,'' the group says in a statement. These also should serve as an alternative to the militant groups threatening disruptions in Denver, they say: "Most activists want peaceful, nonviolent protests where nobody gets hurt.''
.
""The peace bat allows you to make your point without making a mark," says Private Lee Pat McGroin, "national Yippie trendmonger" for the Western Region.

Of course, the rhetoric has not been scaled back. Yippie Pieman Aron Kay, of Brooklyn, known for placing pies in the faces of celebrities, suggests of the convention: "Once again, the rich orgy of affluence tries to give us another snow job. It's the same regurgitated circus that we get every four years, a liberal façade called 'Yippie Presents: America Up for Grabs.' No matter what, we still have to take on the bad clowns and the bad circus being perpetrated by corporate cartel. Are we Obamanable or will we suffer under four years of Elmer Fudd McCain?"

The street theater starts at 3:30 pm local time at the Tivoli Student Union Building, according to the Yippies.

by Matthew Hay Brown

The recent exchange of letters between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Minority Leader John Boehner occasioned by the debate over drilling has been typical for the two leaders when they have been divided over an issue.

Less so is the gambit by Boehner today.

The Ohio Republican and his colleagues in the GOP House leadership are bypassing their Democratic counterparts with a letter sent directly to the majority party's rank-and-file. They're asking Democrats to join the Republicans who have been staging a floor protest this week in calling on Pelosi to reconvene Congress for a vote on "increasing American-made energy."

"Since Last Friday, House Republicans have stood with the American people in an unprecedented nationwide protest against Speaker Pelosi's decision to adjourn the House for the rest of the summer without a vote on the energy solutions Americans are demanding," Boehner said. He said he would return to Washington tomorrow to join the protest.

"Republicans will not rest until the American people have been heard and Speaker Pelosi has allowed an up-or-down vote on the energy reforms our nation needs," he said.

Republicans, who have been giving speeches in the dimmed House chamber since last week, want to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the Outer Continental Shelf to oil and gas exploration.

Democrats, who have dismissed the revolt as a stunt, say oil companies should focus first on developing the tens of millions of acres on which they already have permission to drill. They also want President Bush to release supplies from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Both sides acknowledge that there is little they can do to reduce prices at the pump in the short term. The text of the Republican letter follows.

by Frank James

Sen. Barack Obama is a "first-class arsonist?"

That incendiary description was how he was described by Rev. Richard Land, the well-known evangelical leader, who was interviewed by National Public Radio's Mara Liasson for a piece on evangelicals and the presidential election.

Land was saying that the Democratic senator from Illinois was viewed by some evangelicals who view their choice of presidential candidates this year as a pick-your-poison opportunity since Sen. John McCain has not been a favorite of theirs either.

"What I hear a lot from Southern Baptist pastors and lay people ... is a variation of this sort of theme: 'John McCain was not my first choice, John McCain was not my second choice, but I'll take a third class fireman over a first class arsonist.' And when it comes to the issue of life, when it comes to the issue of marriage, they perceive Barack Obama as a first class arsonist," Land said.

These preachers sure do use language colorfully, don't they? And it's an interesting choice of words that a black politician would be likened to an arsonist and the white politician a fire-fighter. Kind of conjures up a riot image, doesn't it? Wonder if that was intentional or not?

Anyway, Land is most assuredly talking about white evangelicals. Black evangelicals come at Obama differently. I haven't seen any numbers but black evangelicals' support for Obama probably mirrors the 90 percent support African-Americans are giving him generally.

I know some black evangelicals in a Midwestern swing state, for instance, who would be as conservative on abortion and gay marriage as anyone Land referred to.

But they recently went to an Obama fundraiser whose price of admission was a few thousand dollars for a couple and gladly paid it. They were very impressed with the surrogate the campaign sent--Michelle Obama.

by Frank James

Obama tire gauge, please meet the McCain light switch.

Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign has spent much of the last few days making sport of Sen. Barack Obama's suggestion that Americans could reduce the nation's demand for oil by making sure their tires are properly inflated.

Hey, all's fair in love, war and politics, right?

But at an April campaign appearance, Mccain provided his own helpful tips on conserving energy:

And I'm sorry to tell you that the price of oil -- as far as I can tell -- is not gonna go down anytime soon until we eliminate our dependency on it.

We can do that as a nation -- we can turn out the lights five minutes earlier, we don't have to drive the extra block.

Does that mean we'd have to sit in the dark for five minutes and always walk the last block to our destination? Just asking.

Maybe Obama's campaign should run over to Home Depot and buy a supply of light switches to send to reporters all over town the way to McCain campaign sent out those tire gauges to mock Obama. Just a thought.

By the way, unless I missed it, Democratic opposition researchers really fell down on the job on this one. Had to rely on the Jed Report blog.

by Chris Jones

If Barack Obama wins the presidency, Second City might well find itself the quasi-official White House comedy troupe.

The Obama campaign, and the Obamas themselves, have been enamored of the Chicago-based theater ever since the 2007 mainstage revue "Between Barack and a Hard Place" cast Hillary Clinton as an unloved, hard-nosed pol unable to compete with a charming, chameleonic rival whom even Abraham Lincoln loved to call B.O.

That show, a huge hit, was also notable for the love ballad "Where Was This Al Gore Before?," replete with the memorable rhyming of "Tipper" and "zipper."

Most of the senior staffers of the Obama campaign, including chief strategist David Axelrod, came to the show.

So did Michelle Obama and Maya Soetoro-Ng, Sen. Obama's half-sister. The pair laughed uproariously all night long...

(For the rest, go to the Theater Loop blog by Chris Jones.)

by Matthew Hay Brown

The lights have been dimmed and Congress has gone home, but a couple dozen House Republicans continued their floor protest today of what they're calling the "Pelosi shutdown" - the decision by Democrats last week to adjourn for the previously scheduled August recess without voting on opening new areas to drilling.

"What heartens me as I hear the speeches of the men and women gathered around me is that I know in my heart we are speaking and giving voice to the will of the overwhelming majority of the American people who want this Congress to return to Washington, D.C., and give the American people more access to American oil," said Rep. Mike Pence, an Indiana Republican.

"I'm absolutely confident that, if this Congress were brought back to Washington, D.C., and given an opportunity to vote on giving more access to the American people of American oil, that there is a bipartisan majority in the Congress that would pass that measure."

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has labeled calls to open more domestic areas for drilling "a hoax." Democrats have pushed Bush to release supply from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and say oil companies should explore the tens of millions of acres on which they already hold drilling leases before they are given new areas are opened up.

"Democrats offered a real solution to high energy prices that would bring immediate relief within 10 days by forcing the President to free our oil from the nation's stockpile," Pelosi said. "The Republicans propose to give away public lands to Big Oil, which will not immediately reduce the price at the pump and save Americans only 2 cents 10 years from now. This Republican hoax is unworthy of the serious debate we must have to reduce the price at the pump and promote energy independence."

by Mark Silva

Now that Sen. Barack Obama is assured of his party's nomination for president, he is calling on the Democratic National Committee to count the full votes of the disputed delegations from Florida and Michigan, which had been contested during the primaries.

"In just a few weeks, our party will convene in Denver for our National Convention,'' Obama wrote to his party's credentials committee today. "This will be an historic event that will showcase our vision for changing the direction of our country.

"The delegates and alternates who gather on Monday, August 25 will reflect the talent, energy and rich diversity of our Democratic Party. The delegates will come from all 56 states and territories. As these delegates go about the important business of the Convention, I believe Party unity calls for the delegates from Florida and Michigan to be able to participate fully alongside the delegates from the other states and territories. Accordingly, I ask that the Credentials Committee, when it meets on August 24 to approve the delegates for the National Convention, pass a resolution that would entitle each delegate from Florida and Michigan to cast a full vote.''

The party originally had stripped the two states of their delegates for holding primary elections before Feb. 5, in violation of party rules.Obama's erstwhile rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, had sought a full count of all the Florida and Michigan delegates - despite the fact that Obama's name had not appeared on the Michigan ballot and the two had not contested Florida's vote.

In a compromise move by the committee in May, the party decided to allot each Florida and Michigan delegate a half-vote. Obama's move now virtually guarantees a full count. The three co-chairs of the partyis credentials committee issued a statement today calling the Florida and Michigan question a "top priority... As always our goal is to ensure a fair process and a unified Democratic Party so that we can win in November," wrote Alexis Herman, James Roosevelt Jr. and Eliseo Roques-Arroyo.

Obama wrote to the three:

"As a candidate for the nomination, I supported the DNC's efforts to establish and enforce a schedule for primaries and caucuses that would broaden the opportunity for Democrats from all regions of the country and all backgrounds and walks of life to have a meaningful voice. An unprecedented number of voters participated in our Democratic nominating process. We all owe a debt of gratitude to Governor Dean for his principled leadership during this long and challenging process.

"As we prepare to come together in Denver, however, we must be - and will be - united in our determination to change the course of our nation. To that end, Democrats in Florida and Michigan must know that they are full partners and colleagues in our historic mission to reshape Washington and lead our country in a new direction.''

By Andrew Zajac

Ohio Democrats dodged a bullet earlier this summer when they quickly got rid of Marc Dann, their scandal-soiled attorney general.

Now an even bigger projectile is heading their way.

Last Monday, more than 200 federal agents conducted simultaneous raids of various offices and homes in and around Cuyahoga County, the mother lode of Democratic voters in the state.

by Paul West

An adviser to John McCain's campaign sums up 2008 this way: Republicans are "not going to elect dogcatchers, but we may have the presidency."

Pity those Republicans running in the other election, the one in the shadow of the McCain-Obama contest. Their party is in the grip of a full-fledged Bush depression, and there's no sign of turning a corner any time soon.

Deep and prolonged dissatisfaction with President Bush's performance has been amplified by pessimism about a sour national economy and high food and fuel prices. Every opinion survey shows American voters tilting against the GOP and saying Congress should stay in Democratic hands under the next president.

At the moment, this downbeat mood is hitting Republican candidates where it hurts most: in their campaign accounts.

"It is the worst fundraising that I have ever seen," said Paul Wilson, a veteran Republican media consultant. "Candidates who were at $700,000 last time are now at $100,000. Those who should be at $350,000 to $500,000 are at $70,000."

The Walmart store on the 4700 block of North Ave. (Chicago Tribune Photo by Charles Cherney)

by Frank James

One of the day's best stories is The Wall Street Journal's report that Wal-Mart is telling its managers and supervisors that a presidential victory by Sen. Barack Obama could hurt the company, giving the labor movement new life and spurring unionizing efforts at the nation's largest retailer.

In recent weeks, thousands of Wal-Mart store managers and department heads have been summoned to mandatory meetings at which the retailer stresses the downside for workers if stores were to be unionized.

According to about a dozen Wal-Mart employees who attended such meetings in seven states, Wal-Mart executives claim that employees at unionized stores would have to pay hefty union dues while getting nothing in return, and may have to go on strike without compensation. Also, unionization could mean fewer jobs as labor costs rise.

There are several interesting things about this. One aspect not covered the story is the whole question of why Wal-Mart, as a retailer, would act in a way that could turn off many of its customers. After all, a lot of Democrats likely shop at Wal-Mart.

Most retailers are skittish about taking public stands that could potentially turn off shoppers. But that obviously isn't the case here. There appears to be little of the expected concern on Wal-Mart's part about the possible blowback in terms of lost sales.

Perhaps the company has determined that it's prices are so competitive and it has such market dominance in so many places, that it's unlikely to suffer any significant sales losses from antagonized Democrats who may have no other retail options in many of those local markets.

by Frank James

Maybe the economy will pick up during the rest of the year. Optimism is healthy, isn't it?

But the economy certainly had a poor first half in 2008, growing 1.9 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said this morning.

And it actually contracted during the 2007 fourth quarter by 0.2 percent, based on the agency's revised data.

The only good news seemed to be that matters could have been worse, significantly worse. The economic stimulus checks pumped out by the U.S. Treasury earlier this year boosted second-quarter growth. But that was a temporary fix.

The other factor pushing economic growth was the relatively weak dollar which kept U.S. exports humming.

But there were other bad economic data today. The Labor Department reported that the number of U.S. workers filing unemployment claims last week was 448,000, a five-year high.

And here's one many if not most American workers can relate to: wages and salaries rose only 0.7 percent in the second quarter. Benefit costs rose less than that.

One might think such data would be difficult to put a positive spin on. Anyone thinking that would be underestimating the Bush White House.

President Bush said the following to a group of coal industry executives today:

"I want to remind you a few months ago there were predictions that the economy would shrink this quarter, not grow. But in fact, the opposite has happened. As a matter of fact, it's more than double the rate we saw in the first quarter; that's positive."

And this:

"[W]e saw the slowdown early." "And that's why we passed the stimulus package.

by Rick Pearson

RACINE, Wis.--Presumptive Republican nominee John McCain's campaign accused Democratic rival Barack Obama of injecting "the race card" into the presidential contest on Thursday, further spiraling the negativity over the fight for the White House.

With the Arizona senator campaigning in Wisconsin, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis, accused Obama, an African-American senator from Illinois, of bringing race into the contest during comments the Democrat made during visits on Wednesday in Missouri.

"Barack Obama has played the race card, and he played it from the bottom of the deck. It's divisive, negative, shameful and wrong," Davis said in a statement.

Specifically, McCain's campaign cited remarks that Obama made in which he accused the Republicans of trying to make the public "scared" and portray him as "risky."

"You know, he's not patriotic enough," Obama said, according to a transcript cited by the McCain camp. "He's got a funny name. You know, he doesn't look like all those other presidents on those dollar bills, you know. He's risky. That's essentially the argument they're making."

The McCain campaign has ratcheted up the heat of the campaign in recent days through an intensifying rhetoric and TV ads critical criticizing Obama and likening him to a celebrities such as Paris Hilton and Brittany Spears, prompting the Democrat to ridicule McCain's effort and question whether that's all the Republican have to offer.

by Sabrina Fang

by Jill Zuckman and updated

With a new television spot comparing Barack Obama to bubble-gum celebrities Britney Spears and Paris Hilton, John McCain is launching a new campaign aimed at portraying Obama as an international star without the heft necessary to become the American commander in chief.

A 30-second television ad that hit the airwaves Wednesday calls Obama "the biggest celebrity in the world," then asks ominously, "Is he ready to lead?"

McCain's strategy is to leverage the enthusiastic crowds and personal charisma that have created excitement around Obama's campaign and use this celebrity to raise questions about Obama's depth. Framing Obama this way also allows the McCain campaign to highlight what some view as Obama's presumptuousness and inability to relate to ordinary people.

Over the past week, McCain has begun sharpening his message against Obama. He suggested that Obama would be willing to lose the Iraq War in order to win the election. He ran a television ad blaming Obama for high gas prices and criticized him for skipping a meeting with injured U.S. troops in Germany because he couldn't bring television cameras along.

All of these charges were hotly disputed by the Obama campaign, and all have been criticized by independent fact-checking organizations. "Sen. McCain is an honorable man who is increasingly running a dishonorable campaign," said Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor. "He said he wanted a civil campaign about the issues. I think a lot of people are wondering what happened to him."

The harsher attacks create some risk for McCain, analysts said, because he may come off as overly negative. But McCain appears to be gambling that the public's image of him is firmly set and that its doubts mostly relate to Obama, who has been on the national stage a much shorter time.

But even some Republicans question the tenor of the critiques. "The point of this campaign is not about personalities, it's about the contrast on the issues," said David Winston, a Republican pollster. "Where's McCain on taxes, where's Obama on taxes? That's a good contrast for McCain. If he focuses on the personality side, he's not arguing from his strong suit."

Jill Zuckman writes for the Chicago Tribune. Read the full story about the Obama celebrity ad at ChicagoTribune.com.

by Jill Zuckman

MT. CLEMENS, Mich. -- With its pounding beat and desperate lyrics, "Eight Mile" by Detroit rap artist Eminem isn't just a song. It's an ode to the highway that serves as a physical and psychological divider between poor African-Americans in Detroit and their white, blue-collar neighbors in Macomb County, as well as a more affluent crowd in Oakland County.

Now, some Democrats fear, Eight Mile Road could symbolize the presidential election in Michigan as voters choose between Barack Obama, an African-American Democrat, and John McCain, a white Republican. This normally reliable state for Democrats may not be so reliable this year as issues of race and class cloud the election and voters say they still know little about the Democratic nominee because of a botched primary that kept him away.

The Midwestern states are a high priority for both campaigns, with states like Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin potentially in play. Pennsylvania could be a battleground too. And Democratic and Republican analysts say Michigan could be the toughest of all for Obama, requiring him to spend more time and money here to shore up support.

Michelle Brasza, a kindergarten teacher and mother of three who usually votes Democratic, said this year she can't decide whom to support.

"I feel like I don't know Obama. I feel like he just popped up out of nowhere," said Brasza, who lives in Macomb County, the original home of the so-called Reagan Democrats and a swing section of the state. "I haven't heard of him. I think he's only been a senator for four years, if my memory is correct, and that makes me nervous."

Brasza said she feels more comfortable with McCain because of his experience and is familiar with him from his years on the national stage. "I have this little battle going on in my mind," she said.

A stew of complex issues in Michigan could tilt the race either way. The state has lost 400,000 manufacturing jobs since 2000 and its unemployment is highest in the country. Ford Motor Co. last week reported its biggest quarterly loss ever. General Motors has announced a restructuring that will cut more jobs in Michigan, as well as eliminate health benefits for current retirees.

At the same time, voters are furious about a sex scandal involving the Democratic mayor of Detroit and corruption charges against much of the Detroit City Council. The Democratic governor, Jennifer Granholm, is unpopular, too, facing low approval ratings for her handling of the economy.

by Andrew Zajac

What is it about Democratic Ways and Means Committee chairmen?

The current ethics fix Charles Rangel finds himself in recalls the downfall of Chicago's Dan Rostenkowski, who in 1996 was sentenced to 17 months in prison on various corruption counts including fraud and embezzlement.

Rangel (pictured here) is a long way from being accused of a crime -- he brought his purported peccadillos to the House ethics committee and that may be the end of the story, since the ethics panel is better known for wrist-slapping than for requesting criminal investigations.

Still, there's a similarity here in the larger-than-life personas of the two men and in their roots in corruption-fueled big city machine politics. And in the piddling scale of their transgressions relative to their massive clout.

by Paul West

This year's election promises to be one of the great experiments in U.S. history.

Is the country ready for an African American president? No one knows for sure. It's increasingly clear, though, that the '08 vote will be a referendum on the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas.

Inevitably, racial attitudes are going to influence that choice. But there is growing evidence that race is losing its potency as a determining factor in U.S. politics.

Some of it comes from a pair of statewide elections in 2006. Both featured breakthrough tries by black Democrats who, in effect, were trailblazers for Barack
Obama. And top Obama strategists were involved in each one.

Sen. John McCain greets a veteran, Friday, July 25, 2008, at the American GI Forum Convention in Denver. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

by Frank James

The "audacity of hopelessness" is an obvious play on the title of Sen. Barack Obama's autobiography "The Audacity of Hope" and it was used today by Sen. John McCain.

The all-but-official Republican nominee used the line to describe Obama's opposition to the surge of U.S. military forces in Iraq. It came in a speech the senator from Arizona delivered to the American GI Forum in Denver today.

Fortunately, Senator Obama failed, not our military. We rejected the audacity of hopelessness, and we were right. Violence in Iraq fell to such low levels for such a long time that Senator Obama, detecting the success he never believed possible, falsely claimed that he had always predicted it.

Expect to hear this line more since it uses a slight variation on Obama's own language to skewer him.

McCain is actually not the first to use the expression. In March, New York Times columnist David Brooks used to describe the desperation he smelled coming from the presidential campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton. And before that, it was the headline on a Frank Rich column in February that also examined Clinton's declining fortunes.

by Frank James

The Republican National Committee e-mailed a transcript from an MSNBC report this afternoon by correspondent Andrea Mitchell.

The RNC wanted people to focus on the part of Mitchell's report where she said that the Pentagon told Sen. Barack Obama's campaign that the presidential candidate could visit wounded soldiers at Landsthul Medical Center if he only brought a single Senate aide but no campaign staff in order to keep the event from being a political one.

The RNC obviously wants to put Obama on the defensive for allowing this seemingly minor condition to prevent his visit.

But that's not the only noteworthy part of what Mitchell reported. She also said that Obama campaign people were angry at the Pentagon for creating a fuss about an event whose details the campaign thought they had finalized more or less

ANDREA MITCHELL: "Spin from both sides: the Pentagon would have told you that these are rules that everyone follows. That he was welcomed, he could have gone if he had gone with just a Senate aide, but that no campaign aides could go with him. Privately, some people are suggesting that one of the issues was a general - Scott Gration -- who travels with him who's a campaign aide and retired Air Force general and that the general was told that he could not use his privilege as a retired member of the military to accompany Senator Obama because he is now joined the political campaign.

... So that may have been one of the stumbling blocks. ... The Obama people certainly feel resentful. They had a planned event. They were planning to leave the press corps on the tarmac and go in themselves, and that they feel the pentagon made it difficult and reminded them of the rules, about which they didn't need to be reminded having just come from a similar visit in Iraq. But whatever the result, they feel that they have been treated badly by the Pentagon, and that is certainly creating some bad blood."

Question: which side needs the other more? It would seem the campaign needs the Pentagon (surely the senator's schedulers will want to get him onto military bases or into hospitals before the campaign is over) more than the Pentagon needs the campaign. So this is one where the Pentagon probably has the greater leverage.

by David Nitkin

Barack Obama boiled his campaign down to one word: "Change." John McCain hasn't quite hit on a similar same concise message.

"Country first" reads the latest slogan on his Web site.

If the Arizona senator is looking for something different, he could go with the more complex suggestion in the sign shown above.

Don Murphy, a former Maryland state delegate and longtime McCain supporter, greeted the presumptive Republican nominee at Baltimore Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport this week, with a sign spelling out McCain's name in numeric code.

The system, Murphy said, was used by McCain and other POWs to communicate while imprisoned in Vietnam. In the code, the alphabet is broken into groups of letters. The letter M is the second letter in the third group, so it is represented in the code by "3-2." "C" is the third letter in the first group. And so on.

Getting off his airplane, McCain got a thrill out of seeing the sign, and immediately began tapping out his name, Murphy told The Sun of Baltimore this week.

Murphy said later that he should have given the placard to McCain as a gift. But he only thought of that later.

by Frank James

Candy Crowley of CNN interviewed Sen. Barack Obama before he left Berlin for Paris. Among her questions: Why are we in Berlin with a little more than three months before the election? And what message are American voters supposed to draw from this?

Part of Obama's answer was this:

"If we have more NATO troops in Afghanistan, then that's potentially fewer American troops over the long term, which means we're spending fewer billions of dollars, which means we can invest those billions of dollars in making sure we're providing tax cuts to middle class families who are struggling with higher gas prices that will have an impact on our economy."

It's hard to go wrong in the swing states with the argument that you have a strategy for lowering their taxes.

Of course, the European governments might have to raise taxes to fund the type of expanded military and nation-building role Obama wants them to play in Afghanistan. Which is one of the reasons NATO nations haven't committed more to the cause and why Obama, if he becomes president, is going to find himself challenged in getting significant boosts in troops and other assistance to Afghanistan.

by Katie Fretland

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visits New Zealand today, where a group of students who oppose the Iraq War have offered a $3,700 reward to anyone who makes a citizen's arrest of her.

The Auckland University Students' Association charges that Rice oversaw "the illegal invasion and continued occupation" of Iraq," AP reports.

Rice plans to meet with Prime Minister Helen Clark and Foreign Minister Winston Peters during her first trip to New Zealand, following a Southeast Asian security forum in Singapore.

Rice said during a press conference today that protests are part of Democracy.

"Student protests are particularly a long honored tradition in democratic society," Rice said. "I can only say that the United States has done everything that it can to end this war on terror, to live up to our international and national laws and obligations."

Law enforcement officials in Auckland said that they are aware of the citizen's arrest plan and will stop anyone who tries to cross police lines.

The AP contributed to this report.

by Matthew Hay Brown

On Wednesday, Rep. Chris Van Hollen and Sen. Charles Schumer, the chairmen of the Democrats' House and Senate campaign operations, warned supporters against "irrational exuberance" over the party's prospects in November.