23 October 2006: Ending the UN Arms Embargo Against Somalia Could be Disastrous

For some time now the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Somalia has been calling for the removal of the United Nations (UN) Security Council arms embargo against the territory of Somalia. This appeal became more insistent after the occupation of the port city of Kismayo by the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) in late September 2006.

The TFG was established in June 2004, but has struggled since then to establish any form of governmental influence over the troubled Horn of Africa territory. The UIC is a militia that has its roots in an Islamist judicial system and is largely funded by influential elements of business elite in Somalia. The UIC took control of Somalia's capital, Mogadishu by force of arms in June 2006, and since then has extended its control over other strategic areas in the south and centre of the country.

Since June 2006, external parties, such as the League of Arab States and the United States government, have been facilitating peace talks between the TFG and the UIC, however, there has been no significant positive outcome. Given this state of affairs, would it be prudent to lift the arms embargo against Somalia?

In 1992, as a result of civil war, the collapse of the Somali state, and associated humanitarian disaster, the UN Security Council imposed an arms embargo against the territory of Somalia. In 1993 the UN deployed a peace enforcement mission, which during its two years of existence proved to be largely ineffective. Between 1992 and 2002 there were sporadic violent inter-group conflict and substantial violations of the arms embargo by states and non-state actors.

In September 2002, the UN Secretary-General established a panel of experts (which was later renamed the Monitoring Group) to investigate violations of the embargo against Somalia. According to the reports of the panel of experts / Monitoring Group, weapons and military-related equipment had been transferred to the Somali factions in violation of the UN arms embargo, particularly by neighbouring states such as Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea, as well as by other states (mainly in Eastern Europe) and individual arms brokers.

Despite the violations of the arms embargo, the trade in arms with individuals and groups in Somalia has been restricted (to some degree) due to its illegal nature. In general, the major arms producing countries have overtly respected the arms embargo. However, the removal of this coercive diplomacy instrument would result in the transfer of substantial consignments of arms and military-related material to this territory, particularly since Somalia is increasingly been perceived as one of the new frontiers in the “war on terror”. It is highly likely that such arms transfers will exacerbate tensions between the TFG and UIC, undermine the fragile peace talks and prolong the political stalemate indefinitely, increasing the likelihood of the resumption of widespread violent conflict.

Guy Lamb, Arms Management Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria) Office

http://www.sudantribune.com/recherche.php3?recherche=somalia+%2Barms

Somalia is awash with arms - http://www.somalilandtimes.net/2003/90/9014.shtml

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