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  CONFLICT ANALYSIS
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Conflict Early Warning and Early Response

Violent conflicts are among the greatest threats to human security in Africa. Wars in Africa have inflicted massive destruction upon the continent’s infrastructure, both human and physical, displaced millions of people, disrupted livelihoods, and seriously damaged the environment. According to World Bank estimates, in the 1990s violent conflicts in Africa consistently led to a net loss of 2 per cent economic growth annually.Although it is generally acknowledged that conflicts can be prevented, or at least ameliorated, this requires great sophistication in diagnosing conflict-prone situations.


The adage that “prevention is better than cure” is now seriously being applied in preventing violent conflicts in Africa. This change of approach in promoting peace and security in Africa is also influenced by the stark reality that the cost of preventing conflicts is small compared to the enormous costs of armed conflicts and the uncertain business of reconstructing war-torn societies. In realisation of this, the African Union has taken steps to promote peace and security in Africa by establishing the Peace and Security Council, whose mandate includes serving as an “early warning arrangement to facilitate timely and efficient response to conflict and crisis situations in Africa.”

 

ISS focus on Early Warning and Early Response

Since 1998, the ISS, through the African Security Analysis Programme (ASAP), has been collecting and analysing information to identify and understand the various threats to human security in Africa. At the heart of ASAP’s approach is the belief that early warning and conflict analysis must be regarded as more than just the provision and sharing of information; it requires the formulation as well as adequate communication of analysis and the identification of plausible policy options to relevant decision-makers.


The overall objective of ASAP is to contribute to African and international efforts in the prevention, management and resolution of African conflicts and crisis situations by providing independent, timely and in-depth analysis of threats to human security in Africa. It is in this context that ASAP is assisting decision-makers, donors and other stakeholders to devise informed policies for effective, timely and relevant analysis, and options for action.


DOCUMENTS



  •   19 Mar 2009: Madagascar's Rajoelina Takes Office. Interview with Dr David Zounmenou, ISS. Station: SAfm; Programme: PM Live; Time: 05:43:40 PM; Duration: 00:08:34  (podcast)

  • 19 Mar 2009: ISS Today: Madagascar: What Now?

  • 17 Mar 2009: AU PSC 180th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on Madagascar  (PDF 76kb)

  • 17 Mar 2009: AU PSC 180th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la Situation à Madagascar  (PDF 76kb)

  • 10 Mar 2009: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Double Political Assassination in Guinea Bissau: What Does the Future Hold?

  • 04 Mar 2009: ISS Today: Double Political Assassinations in Guinea Bissau: What Future for the Country?

  • 03 Mar 2009: AU PSC 174th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on the Situation in Guinea Bissau  (PDF 84kb)

  • 03 Mar 2009: AU PSC 174th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la Situation en en République de Guinée Bissau  (PDF 76kb)

  •   02 Mar 2009: Will Vote Stop Comoros Coups? Interview with Chrysantus Ayangafac, Senior Researcher, ISS Addis Ababa. Station: The Media Line; Time: 12:00:00AM; Duration: 00:06:00  (podcast)

  •   02 Mar 2009: Guinea Bissau President Assassinated. CNBC Interview with Dr David Zounmenou, Senior Researcher, ISS  (wmv video)

  • 27 Feb 2009: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Developments in South Sudan

  • 24 Feb 2009: ISS Today: The Changing Geo-Political Situation in Eastern DRC and the Impact on Stability in the Region

  • 13 Feb 2009: ISS Today: Madagascar Again Engulfed by Political Violence

  • 12 Feb 2009: ISS Today: The Value of Life in Kenya

  • Situation Report:  11 Feb 2009: Africa 2008–2009: Retrospective Look at the Past Year and Forecast for the New Year  (PDF 224kb)

  • 23 Jan 2009: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: A Bridge too Far? Making Sense of Complex Developments in the DRC

  • 21 Jan 2009: ISS Conference, Pretoria: Unpacking the Somali Conflict

  • 16 Jan 2009: ISS Today: Casting Lead and Breaking Rules in Gaza

  • 06 Jan 2009: ISS Today: Guinea’s Military Coup a Blessing in Disguise?

  • 09 Dec 2008: ISS Today: Understanding Domination and Popular Inaction Under Repressive Regimes in Africa

  • 08 Dec 2008: Summary Report: ISS Seminar on Western Sahara: Understanding the Roots of the Conflict and Suggesting a Way Out  (PDF 48kb)

  • 08 Dec 2008: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Western Sahara: Understanding the Roots of the Conflict and Suggesting a Way Out

  • 04 Dec 2008: ISS Briefing, Pretoria: Update on Events in Nigeria

  • Situation Report:  01 Dec 2008: Ethiopia and Eritrea in Turmoil: Implications for Peace and Security in a Troubled Region, Jonathan Ewing  (PDF 104kb)

  • 27 Nov 2008: ISS Today: The Army of Guinea Bissau a Threat to Stability

  • 25 Nov 2008: CRU Policy Brief: Reinforcing Efforts to Seize the Fleeting Window of Opportunity in North Kivu, Henri Boshoff and Sylvie More  (PDF 129kb)

  •   19 Nov 2008: DRC Rebel Leader Laurent Nkunda Ready to Cooperate with UN. Interview with Henri Boshoff, ISS Military Analyst  (wmv video)

  • 18 Nov 2008: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: A New War in the Democratic Republic of Congo

  •   13 Nov 2008: UN Peacekeepers Struggling to Protect DRC Civilians. Interview with Henri Boshoff, ISS Military Analyst  (wmv video)

  •   11 Nov 2008: Update on the Situation in the DRC. Interview with Henri Boshoff, ISS Military Analyst. Station: SAfm; Programme: Morning Talk; Time: 10:13:01 AM; Duration: 00:10:32  (podcast)

  •   10 Nov 2008: Analysis of the Situation in Zimbabwe and the DRC. Interview with Richard Cornwell, ISS Senior Research Fellow. Station: 702/Cape Talk; Programme: The Midday Report; Time: 12:08:30 PM; Duration: 00:05:56  (podcast)

  • 09 Nov 2008: Communiqué: SADC Extraordinary Summit on the Situation in the DRC and Zimbabwe, Sandton  (PDF 129kb)

  • 31 Oct 2008: ISS Today: Goma to Fall to Nkunda Forces?

  • 31 Oct 2008: AU PSC 155th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on the DRC  (PDF 26kb)

  • 31 Oct 2008: AU PSC 155th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la Situation en RDC  (PDF 26kb)

  • 29 Oct 2008: IGAD: Declaration of the 13th Extra-Ordinary Assembly of Heads of State and Government on the Situation in Somalia  (PDF 22kb)

  •   29 Oct 2008: Fighting has Escalated in Eastern Part of DRC Against Rebel Troops: Interview with Henri Boshoff, ISS Military Analyst  (podcast)

  • 20 Oct 2008: Communiqué of the Extra-ordinary Summit of the SADC Organ Troika of Heads of State and Government, Swaziland  (PDF 53kb)

  • 26 Sep 2008: ISS Today: A New War in Eastern DRC?

  • 24 Sep 2008: Communiqué of the Extra-ordinary Meeting of the IGAD Council of Ministers, New York  (PDF 24kb)

  • 23 Sep 2008: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Georgia War 2008 and its Effects on European Security Architecture

  • 19 Sep 2008: ISS Today: Trouble in Nigeria? Between an Oil War and a Succession Battle

  • Situation Report:  15 Sep 2008: The Eritrea - Djibouti Border Dispute, Berouk Mesfin  (PDF 243kb)

  • 18 Aug 2008: ISS Briefing, Cape Town: The Role of UN Peacekeepers in Re-Arming Rebel Groups in the DRC

  • 17 Aug 2008: Communiqué of the Extraordinary Summit of the SADC Organ of Heads of State and Government, Sandton  (PDF 18kb)

  • 15 Aug 2008: ISS Today: Is a Military Coup an Answer to the Political Crisis in Mauritania?

  • 14 Aug 2008: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: How to Achieve a Lasting Peace in the Niger Delta

  • 01 Aug 2008: ISS Today: Hopes for a Settlement in Somalia Fade

  • WMV  11 Jul 2008: Burundi's Government Accuses Rebels of Plotting Fresh Violence: Interview with Henri Boshoff, ISS Military Analyst  (wmv video)

  • WMV  02 Jul 2008: Fighting in Niger Between Rebels vs Soldiers Continues: Interview with David Zounmenou, ISS Senior Researcher; Station: SABC Africa; Programme: 180 Degrees Live In Africa; Time: 8:50:37 AM  (wmv video)

  • MP3  30 Jun 2008: The Role of the Army in Zimbabwe: Interview with Henri Boshoff, ISS Military Analyst: Station: 702; Programme: CTN The Midday Report; Time: 12:22:13 PM; Duration: 00:03:54  (mp3 audio)

  • WMV  29 Jun 2008: Whither Zimbabwe? Interview with Richard Cornwell, ISS Senior Research Fellow

  • 29 Jun 2008: AU PSC 140th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on the Situation at the Border Between Djibouti and Eritrea  (PDF 32kb)

  • 29 Jun 2008: AU PSC 140th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la situation à la frontière entre la République de Djibouti et l’Etat d’Erythrée  (PDF 32kb)

  • 29 Jun 2008: AU PSC 138th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur les situations de conflit et post-conflit en Afrique  (PDF 46kb)

  • 23 Jun 2008: AU Statement on the Situation in Zimbabwe  (PDF 30kb)

  • MP3  10 Jun 2008: US, Europe Push For UN Security Council Discussion On Zimbabwe: Interview with Chris Maroleng, ISS Senior Researcher: Station: VOA News; Duration: 00:01:31  (mp3 audio)

  • 05 Jun 2008: ISS Today: Chad-Sudan Proxy Wars Could Lead to Overt Confrontation

  • 08 May 2008: ISS Today: Eritrea - Dangerous Games

  •   30 Apr 2008: Ivory Coast Coming to Terms with Civil War: Interview with David Zounmenou, ISS Senior Researcher: Station: CNBC Africa; Programme: Business AM; Time: 06:30:00 AM; Duration: 00:06:57  (wmv video)

  • 30 Apr 2008: AU PSC 124th Ordinary Session: Report on the Comoros  (PDF 78kb)

  • 30 Apr 2008: AU PSC 124th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on the Comoros  (PDF 40kb)

  • 30 Apr 2008: AU PSC 124th Ordinary Session (Français): Rapport sur les Comores  (PDF 86kb)

  • 30 Apr 2008: AU PSC 124th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la situation aux Comores  (PDF 46kb)

  • 28 Apr 2008: ISS Expert Roundtable, Yaoundé: The Central Africa Region Security Complex: Policy Options and Recommendations, 28-29 April 2008

  • MP3  03 Apr 2008: Cease-Fire Deal Reached Between Mali Government, Tuareg Fighters: Interview with David Zounmenou, ISS Senior Researcher: Station: VOA News; Duration: 00:02:14  (mp3 audio)

  • 25 Mar 2008: ISS Today: Burkina Faso Riots Over Basic Commodity Prices Threatens Political Stability

  • 14 Mar 2008: AU PSC 115th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on the Situation in Kenya  (PDF 24kb)

  • 14 Mar 2008: AU PSC 115th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la Situation au Kenya  (PDF 29kb)

  • Situation Report:  05 Mar 2008: Situation Critical: The Anjouan Political Crisis, Chrysantus Ayangafac  (PDF 327kb)

  • 05 Mar 2008: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Chad and Sudan – Conflict Without Borders

  • 01 Mar 2008: ISS Paper 160: The African Standby Force. An Update on Progress, Jakkie Cilliers

  • 29 Feb 2008: ISS Seminar, Cape Town: Africa 2008: Prospects for Prosperity and Peace?

  • 28 Feb 2008: ISS Today: Who Will Save Chad From This Agony?

  • 26 Feb 2008: ISS Seminar, Addis Ababa: The Chadian Political Crisis: Opportunities and Challenges for Peace

  • 18 Feb 2008: AU PSC 110th Ordinary Session: Report on Chad  (PDF 51kb)

  • 18 Feb 2008: AU PSC 110th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on the Situation in Chad  (PDF 23kb)

  • 18 Feb 2008: AU PSC 110th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la situation au Tchad  (PDF 28kb)

  • 18 Feb 2008: AU PSC 110th Ordinary Session (Français): Rapport sur la Situation au Tchad  (PDF 41kb)

  • 21 Jan 2008: AU PSC 109th Ordinary Session: Statement on the Situation in Kenya  (PDF 21kb)

  • 21 Jan 2008: AU PSC 109th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la Situation au Kenya  (PDF 23kb)

  • 18 Jan 2008: ISS Seminar, Addis Ababa: A Critical Analysis of the Political Crisis in Kenya

  • 18 Jan 2008: AU PSC 105th Ordinary Session: Report on Somalia  (PDF 76kb)

  • 18 Jan 2008: AU PSC 105th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on Somalia  (PDF 31kb)

  • 18 Jan 2008: AU PSC 105th Ordinary Session (Français): Rapport sur la Situation en Somalie  (PDF 87kb)

  • 18 Jan 2008: AU PSC 105th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la Situation en Somalie  (PDF 33kb)

  • Situation Report:  05 Dec 2007: Chad: Wading Through a Domestic Political Crisis in a Turbulent Region, Paul-Simon Handy  (PDF 279kb)

  • 03 Dec 2007: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Western Sahara: Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel?

  • 01 Dec 2007: The Anatomy of Conflicts in the East African Community (EAC): Linking Security With Development, Dr Annie Barbara Chikwanha, ISS  (PDF 132kb)

  • Essay:  01 Dec 2007: The United Nations - African Union Mission in Darfur: Implications and Prospects for Success, Sarah E Kreps  (ASR vol 16 no 4)

  • 01 Nov 2007: South African Army Vision 2020: Security Challenges Shaping the Future South African Army, edited by Len le Roux

  • 10 Oct 2007: AU PSC 95th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on the Situation in the Comoros  (PDF 27kb)

  • 10 Oct 2007: AU PSC 95th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la Situation aux Comores  (PDF 150kb)

  • 08 Oct 2007: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Current European Security Concerns

  • 17 Sep 2007: ISS Today: Ethiopia and Eritrea: Bordering on Disaster

  • 11 Sep 2007: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: The Central African Republic and the Conflict in Darfur: Analysing a Conflict System and its Impact on the Region

  • 06 Sep 2007: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: The Insecurty in Eastern DRC

  • Situation Report:  03 Sep 2007: Trouble in Eastern DRC: The Nkunda Factor, Stephanie Wolters  (PDF 161kb)

  • Feature:  01 Sep 2007: Whose Responsibility to Protect? Reflection on the Dynamics of an ‘Abandoned Disorder’ in Somalia, Sadiki Koko

  • Africa Watch:  01 Sep 2007: Trends and markers: Global Peace Index

  • Essay:  01 Sep 2007: The Pitfalls of Action and Inaction: Civilian Protection in MONUC’s Peacekeeping Operations, Joshua Marks

  • Africa Watch:  01 Sep 2007: Security Alerts and their Impacts on Africa, Wafula Okumu

  • Essay:  01 Sep 2007: Peace, Security and the African Peer Review Mechanism: Are the Tools up to the Task?, Steven Gruzd

  • Commentary:  01 Sep 2007: Historical Duty or Pragmatic Interest? Notes on EU and AU Security Issues, Norbert Tóth

  • Editorial:  01 Sep 2007: Conflict Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect in Africa, Kenneth Mpyisi and Tim Murithi

  • Essay:  01 Sep 2007: Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Mechanisms in West Africa: A Critical Assessment of Progress, Issaka K Souaré

  • 13 Aug 2007: AU PSC 87th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on the Situation in the Comoros  (PDF 22kb)

  • 01 Aug 2007: ISS Paper 149: The Hybrid Operation for Darfur, A Critical Review of the Concept of the Mechanism, Festus Aboagye

  • 27 Jul 2007: ISS Today: Niger: Making Sense of the New Tuareg Rebellion

  • 18 Jul 2007: AU PSC 80th Ordinary Session: Report on Somalia  (PDF 55kb)

  • 18 Jul 2007: AU PSC 80th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on Somalia  (PDF 24kb)

  • 18 Jul 2007: AU PSC 80th Ordinary Session (Français): Rapport sur la Situation en Somalie  (PDF 60kb)

  • 18 Jul 2007: AU PSC 80th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la Situation en Somalie  (PDF 30kb)

  • 03 Jul 2007: ISS Expert Forum, Nairobi: Enhancing Human Security in Eastern Africa: Insecurity and Conflict in the Horn of Africa. Implications on Business and Tourism in Kenya, Nairobi, 3-4 July 2007

  • 01 Jul 2007: ISS Paper 148: Negotiating the North/South conflict, Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement, Leslie Anne Schafer

  • 29 Jun 2007: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Zimbabwe: Reflections on Today, Tomorrow and Some Parting Thoughts

  • 28 Jun 2007: ISS Today: Ethiopia: Winning “Hearts and Minds” in Somalia?

  • 22 Jun 2007: AU PSC 79th Ordinary Session: Report on the Hybrid Operation in Darfur  (PDF 250kb)

  • 22 Jun 2007: AU PSC 79th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on the Situation in Darfur  (PDF 28kb)

  • 22 Jun 2007: AU PSC 79th Ordinary Session (Français): Rapport sur l'Operation Hybride au Darfour  (PDF 257kb)

  • 22 Jun 2007: AU PSC 79th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la Situation au Darfour  (PDF 35kb)

  • 19 Jun 2007: ISS Today: Congo's Self-Exiled Bemba Plans July Return

  • 14 Jun 2007: ISS Today: Coup Plot In Zimbabwe

  • 31 May 2007: Presentation by Jakkie Cilliers at the ISS/HSF Public Forum on Africa's Security Questions, Nairobi  (PDF 307kb)

  • 30 May 2007: ISS/HSF Public Forum, Nairobi: Africa’s Security Questions: Issues for the 21st Century

  • 30 May 2007: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Zimbabwe: Prospects for the Future

  • 23 May 2007: 8th Meeting of the Africa Partnership Forum, Berlin: Report on Peace and Security in Africa  (PDF 213kb)

  • 04 May 2007: Report on ISS/IGD Public Seminar, Pretoria: "Zimbabwe at the Crossroads"  (PDF 42kb)

  • 04 May 2007: ISS/IGD Seminar, Pretoria: Zimbabwe at the Crossroads?

  • 01 May 2007: Gambella: The Impact of Local Conflict on Regional Security, Medhane Tadesse (ISS/CPRD Paper)  (PDF 1.69MB)

  • 01 May 2007: Beja: Local Conflict, Marginalisation, and the Threat to Regional Security, John Young (ISS/CPRD Paper)  (PDF 1.37MB)

  • 01 May 2007: Afar: The Impact of Local Conflict on Regional Stability, Tadesse Berhe and Yonas Adaye (ISS/CPRD Paper)  (PDF 1.3MB)

  • 25 Apr 2007: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Somalia: A Civil War Reignited?

  • 24 Apr 2007: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: An Assessment of the Situation in the Great Lakes Region With Special Focus on the DRC

  • 10 Apr 2007: AU PSC 76th Ordinary Session: Report on Developments in Mauritania  (PDF 156kb)

  • 10 Apr 2007: AU PSC 76th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on the Situation in Mauritania  (PDF 22kb)

  • 10 Apr 2007: AU PSC 76th Ordinary Session (Français): Rapport sur l'Evolution de la Situation en Mauritanie  (PDF 149kb)

  • 10 Apr 2007: AU PSC 76th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la situation en Mauritanie  (PDF 24kb)

  • Situation Report:  05 Apr 2007: The Niger Delta Crisis and its Implications for Nigeria’s 2007 Elections, Dr Ike Okonta  (PDF 175kb)

  • 05 Apr 2007: AU PSC 75th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on Darfur  (PDF 41kb)

  • 05 Apr 2007: AU PSC 75th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la situation au Darfur  (PDF 42kb)

  • 02 Apr 2007: ISS Today: Guns Silent in Mogadishu, Hundreds Thought Dead

  • 30 Mar 2007: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: The Kinshasa Crisis

  • 29 Mar 2007: Communiqué: SADC Extraordinary Summit on the Situation in Zimbabwe, Dar es Salaam, 28-29 March 2007  (PDF 779kb)

  • 29 Mar 2007: AU PSC 74th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on the Situation in Côte d'Ivoire  (PDF 51kb)

  • 29 Mar 2007: AU PSC 74th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la situation en Côte d'Ivoire  (PDF 48kb)

  • 07 Mar 2007: Sudan: Report of the High-Level UN Mission on the Situation of Human Rights in Darfur  (PDF 194kb)

  • 12 Feb 2007: AU PSC 70th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on the Relations Between Chad and Sudan  (PDF 59kb)

  • 12 Feb 2007: AU PSC 70th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur les relations entre le Soudan et le Tchad  (PDF 52kb)

  • 28 Jan 2007: Communiqué on Somalia by the Extra-Ordinary Meeting of the IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government, Addis Ababa  (PDF 18kb)

  • 19 Jan 2007: AU PSC 69th Ordinary Session: Report on the Situation in Somalia  (PDF 55kb)

  • 19 Jan 2007: AU PSC 69th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on Somalia  (PDF 27kb)

  • 19 Jan 2007: AU PSC 69th Ordinary Session (Français): Rapport sur la Situation in Somalie  (PDF 59kb)

  • 19 Jan 2007: AU PSC 69th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué sur la Situation en Somalie  (PDF 35kb)

  • 15 Jan 2007: ISS Today: Chad Army, Rebels Dispute Control Of Remote Town

  • 08 Jan 2007: ISS Today: Somalia: What Now?

  • 05 Jan 2007: ISS Today: Darfur, Four Years On: Prospects for Sudan in 2007

  • 05 Jan 2007: Communiqué of the International Contact Group on Somalia, Nairobi  (PDF 18kb)

  • 27 Dec 2006: Joint Communiqué of the AU, Arab League and IGAD on the Current Situation in Somalia  (PDF 22kb)

  • 27 Dec 2006: Joint Communiqué of the AU, Arab League and IGAD on the Current Situation in Somalia  (PDF 25kb)

  • 27 Dec 2006: Joint AU / LAS / IGAD Communiqué (French): Communiqué Conjoint de l'UA, la LEA et l'IGAD sur la Situation Actuelle en Somalie  (PDF 20kb)

  • 13 Dec 2006: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Democratic Republic of Congo: The Congolese Transition 2002-2006

  • 07 Dec 2006: ISS Today: Congo's Kabila Vows War on Graft, End to Violence

  • 30 Nov 2006: AU PSC 66th Ordinary Session, Heads of State Level: Communiqué on Darfur  (PDF 21kb)

  • 30 Nov 2006: AU PSC 66th Ordinary Session, Heads of State Level (Français): Communiqué sur la situation au Darfour  (PDF 24kb)

  • 27 Nov 2006: ISS Today: Chad: Déby’s Last Stand?

  • 15 Nov 2006: ISS Today: Central African Republic’s Debacle: Who Will Fight The Rebels?

  • 14 Nov 2006: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Understanding the Dynamics of West Africa’s Post-Cold War Security Complex: The Côte d’Ivoire Debacle

  • 14 Nov 2006: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Burundi: From Civil War to Conditional Peace, 14 and 15 November 2006, Royal Netherlands Embassy Pretoria

  • 13 Nov 2006: ISS Today: Gunfire, Explosions Heard in Congo's Capital City

  • 09 Nov 2006: AU PSC 65th Ordinary Sesssion: Report on the Implementation of the Burundi Cease-Fire Agreement  (PDF 39kb)

  • 09 Nov 2006: AU PSC 65th Ordinary Sesssion: Communiqué on Burundi  (PDF 24kb)

  • 09 Nov 2006: AU PSC 65th Ordinary Sesssion (Français): Rapport sur la Mise en Œuvre de l'Accord Global de Cessez-le-Feu au Burundi  (PDF 34kb)

  • 09 Nov 2006: AU PSC 65th Ordinary Sesssion (Français): Communiqué au Burundi  (PDF 25kb)

  • 08 Nov 2006: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Emergence of Islamic Courts Union in Somalia: Implications for Peace and Security in the Horn of Africa

  • 30 Oct 2006: ISS Today: Somalia – Carry on Talking

  • 17 Oct 2006: AU PSC 64th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on the Situation in Côte d'Ivoire  (PDF 156kb)

  • 01 Oct 2006: DRC: FAST Country Risk Profile 2006  (PDF 293kb)

    •   (Also available on SwissPeace)

  • 01 Oct 2006: Burundi: FAST Country Risk Profile 2006  (PDF 1.06MB)

    •   (Also available on SwissPeace)

  • 20 Sep 2006: ISS Today: Somalia - Pyromaniac Diplomacy?

  • 05 Sep 2006: Communiqué Issued by the Extra-Ordinary Summit of IGAD Heads of State and Government on Somalia, Nairobi  (PDF 21kb)

  • Situation Report:  04 Sep 2006: Darfur and the Battle for Khartoum, Mariam Jooma  (PDF 175kb)

  • 11 Aug 2006: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Burundi Update: Negotiations Between the Government and Palipehutu-FNL

  • 02 Aug 2006: ISS Today: Somali Islamists Suspect Arch-Foe Ethiopia in Minister’s Killing

  • 01 Aug 2006: Monitoring Fragile Ceasefires: The Challenges and Dilemmas of the Role of AMIS Commander S. Appiah-Mensah  (PDF 421kb)

  • 31 Jul 2006: Somalia: FAST Semi-Annual Risk Assessment, February - July 2006  (PDF 474kb)

    •   (Also available on SwissPeace)

  • 24 Jul 2006: AU PSC 59th Ordinary Session: Statement on the Situation in Somalia  (PDF 20kb)

  • 24 Jul 2006: AU PSC 59th Ordinary Session (Français): Déclaration sur la Situation en Somalie  (PDF 25kb)

  • Situation Report:  17 Jul 2006: Sudan: Eighteen Months After the CPA, Mariam Jooma  (PDF 126kb)

  • 17 Jul 2006: ISS Today: Somali Government Says it Will Form Team to Meet Islamists

  • 10 Jul 2006: ISS Today: Burundi: Ceasefire Negotiations Delayed to 13 July

  • 01 Jul 2006: DRC/Kivu FAST Semi-Annual Risk Assessment, Dec 2005 - Jun 2006  (PDF 559kb)

  • 29 Jun 2006: ISS Today: UN Wants to go to Darfur now to help African Union

  • 27 Jun 2006: ISS Today: Equatorial Guinea: Dogs of War Shown as Braying Asses

  • 27 Jun 2006: AU PSC 58th Ordinary Session: Report on the Situation in Darfur  (PDF 91kb)

  • 27 Jun 2006: AU PSC 58th Ordinary Session: Communiqué on Darfur  (PDF 25kb)

  • 27 Jun 2006: AU PSC 58th Ordinary Session (Français): Report on the Situation in Darfur  (PDF 136kb)

  • 27 Jun 2006: AU PSC 58th Ordinary Session (Français): Communiqué on Darfur  (PDF 26kb)

  • 19 Jun 2006: ISS Today: SLM’s Minawi Threatens to Quit Darfur Peace Deal

  • 19 Jun 2006: Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement  (PDF 214kb)

  • 16 Jun 2006: Joint Communiqué Agreed bt the UN Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council, Addis Ababa  (PDF 77kb)

  • 13 Jun 2006: IGAD: Communiqué of the Extra-Ordinary Session of the IGAD Council of Ministers on the Somali Reconciliation Process, Nairobi, 13 June 2006  (PDF 21kb)

  • 12 Jun 2006: ISS Today: Sudan ‘Exporting War’, Says Chad

  • 01 Jun 2006: Rwanda: FAST Semi-Annual Risk Assessment, Nov 2005 - May 2006  (PDF 190kb)

  • 01 Jun 2006: ISS Today: US Moves Diplomat Critical of Somali Warlord Aid

  • 24 May 2006: ISS Today: LRA Leader to Surrender or Face Regional Force

  • 23 May 2006: ISS Today: Former Kenyan President Calls for Peace Initiative in Ethiopia Between the Government and Oromo Liberation Front

  • 03 May 2006: ISS Today: Chad Vote Goes Ahead Despite Rebel Threat, Boycott

  • 13 Apr 2006: 'Conflict Early Warning Systems and Support of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in Sudan'. Paper Presented at the Conference on Early Warning Systems ‘Conflicts are Preventable, Peace is Sustainable, Khartoum, 10-13 April 2006, Jakkie Cilliers  (PDF 94kb)

  • 29 Mar 2006: ISS Today: Blasts in Ethiopian Capital Kill One, Injure Several

  • 16 Mar 2006: ISS Today: Chad: Government Foiled Coup Attempt by Soldiers

  • 14 Mar 2006: ISS Today: AU Tables Ceasfire Plan for Darfur

  • 10 Mar 2006: ISS Today: Nigeria: Militants Fight Military

  • Feature:  01 Mar 2006: The Somali Conflict: Root Causes, Obstacles and Peace-Building Strategies, Afyare Abdi Elmi and Abdullahi Barise  (ASR vol 15 no 1)

  • 01 Mar 2006: ISS Paper 123: Civilian (in)Security in the Darfur Region of Sudan, Patrick Rankhumise

  • Essay:  01 Mar 2006: An Analysis and Comparison of Armed Groups in Somalia, Anthony Vinci  (ASR vol 15 no 1)

  • 22 Feb 2006: ISS Today: Nigeria: Nine taken Hostage by Armed Militants in Niger Delta

  • 16 Feb 2006: ISS Today: Uganda: Gunmen Shoot at Museveni Convoy

  • 14 Feb 2006: ISS Today: Chad: Rebel Leader Demands Change, by Force if Necessary  (first edition of ISS Today)

  • Commentary:  01 Sep 2005: Zimbabwe: Governance Through Military Operations, Martin Rupiya  (ASR vol 14 no 3 2005)

  • Commentary:  01 Sep 2005: Zimbabwe. Beyond the Democratic Impasse, Cheryl Hendricks  (ASR vol 14 no 3 2005)

  • Essay:  01 Sep 2005: Zimbabwe's Zezuru Sum Game. The basis for the security dilemma in which the political elite finds itself, Chris Maroleng  (ASR vol 14 no 3 2005)

  • Feature:  01 Sep 2005: The Land is the Economy. Revisiting the Land Question in Zimbabwe, Lloyd Sachikonye  (ASR vol 14 no 3 2005)

  • Africa Watch:  01 Sep 2005: The Dynastic Succession in Togo. Continental and Regional Implications, Paul Simon Handy  (ASR vol 14 no 3 2005)

  • Africa Watch:  01 Sep 2005: Sudan: All Quiet on the Eastern Front?, Richard Cornwell  (ASR vol 14 no 3 2005)

  • Trends and Markers:  01 Sep 2005: Some Facts About Zimbabwe  (ASR vol 14 no 3 2005)

  • Africa Watch:  01 Sep 2005: A Place to Call Home? Forced Repatriation of Refugees in Rwanda, Mariam Jooma  (ASR vol 14 no 3 2005)

  • Situation Report:  23 Aug 2005: Feeding the Peace: Challenges Facing Human Security in Post-Garang South Sudan, Mariam Jooma  (PDF 475kb)

  • 07 Jul 2005: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Operation Murambatsvina: The Role of Zimbabwe's Defence and Security Services

  • Africa Watch:  01 Jun 2005: Zimbabwe. More of the Same?, Richard Cornwell and Chris Maroleng  (ASR vol 14 no 2 2005)

  • 01 Jun 2005: Monograph No 118: Local Catalysts, Global Reactions. Cycles of Conflict in the Mano River, Taya Weiss

  • 01 Jun 2005: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: The Russian Front During World War II and Russia on Global Security

  • 01 Jun 2005: From the Ground Up. Land Rights, Conflict and Peace in Sub-Saharan Africa, Chris Huggins, Jenny Clover (eds)

  • 19 May 2005: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Is Ituri on the Road to Stability? An Update on the Current Security Situation in the District

  • 13 May 2005: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Demarcation: Ethiopia’s Defiance, its Threats of War and the Responsibility of the International Community

  • Situation Report:  12 May 2005: Is Ituri on the Road to Stability? An Update on the Current Security Situation in the District, Stephanie Wolters  (PDF 459kb)

  • 28 Apr 2005: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Establishing the Continental Early Warning System for the African Union

  • Africa Watch:  01 Mar 2005: Togo: Or Not To Go?, Richard Cornwell  (ASR vol 14 no 1 2005)

  • 16 Feb 2005: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Burundi: The Road to Elections

  • 13 Dec 2004: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Zimbabwe - Imagining the Future

  • Essay:  01 Dec 2004: Rethinking Conflict Trajectories. South Africa and Kenya Revisited, Kisiangani Emmanuel N  (ASR vol 13 no 4 2004)

  • Africa Watch:  01 Dec 2004: Guinea-Bissau: Between Conflict and Democracy, Patrícia Magalhães Ferreira  (ASR vol 13 no 4 2004)

  • Commentary:  01 Dec 2004: Consolidating Peace and Security in Africa. Recommendations to the (UK) Commission for Africa, Jakkie Cilliers  (ASR vol 13 no 4 2004)

  • Commentary:  01 Dec 2004: Assessing the Stability Pack for the Great Lakes Region, Martin R Rupiya  (ASR vol 13 no 4 2004)

  • 16 Nov 2004: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Sudan: Darfur Update

  • Situation Report:  01 Nov 2004: Zimbabwe, Reaping the Harvest?, Chris Maroleng  (PDF 442kb)

  • Situation Report:  01 Nov 2004: São Tomé and Príncípe Update, Gerhard Seibert  (PDF 98kb)

  • 05 Oct 2004: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: DRC: Chaos in the Kivus?

  • 01 Oct 2004: ISS Paper 94: Continuing Instability in the Kivus: Testing the DRC Transition to the Limit, Stephanie Wolters

  • 01 Aug 2004: Monograph No 102: Supporting Sustainable Livelihoods. A Critical Review of Assistance in Post-Conflict Situations, Jenny Clover And Richard Cornwell

  • Situation Report:  01 Jul 2004: Insecurity in South Sudan: A Threat to the IGAD Peace Process  (PDF 80kb)

  • 10 Jun 2004: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: DRC: The Battle for Bukavu

  • Situation Report:  01 Jun 2004: War, Peace and Diamonds in Angola: Popular Perceptions of the Diamond Industry in the Lundas, Justin Pearce  (PDF 86kb)

  • 07 May 2004: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Democratic Republic of Congo: Update on the Situation in the Kivus

  • 04 May 2004: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Democratic Republic of Congo: Update on Ituri

  • Situation Report:  01 May 2004: Update on the DRC Transition: The Case of the Kivu Provinces, Hans Romkema  (PDF 59kb)

  • Situation Report:  01 Apr 2004: São Tomé and Príncípe Update, Gerhard Seibert  (PDF 97kb)

  • 01 Apr 2004: ISS Paper 88: Hawks, Doves or Penguins? A Critical Review of the SADC Military Intervention in the DRC

  • Situation Report:  01 Apr 2004: Challenges to a Durable Peace in Burundi, Jan van Eck  (PDF 47kb)

  • 31 Mar 2004: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Update on Burundi: Challenges Facing the Burundian Peace Process

  • 16 Mar 2004: Report of the UN Secretary-General on Burundi  (PDF 1.21MB)

  • 01 Mar 2004: Monograph No 99: Behind the Violence. The War in Northern Uganda, Zachary Lomo and Lucy Hovil

  • Situation Report:  13 Jan 2004: Ethiopian-Eritrean Relations: Reading the Balance Sheet, Solomon A Dersso  (PDF)

  • 03 Dec 2003: ISS Book Launch and Discussion: The Battle for Zimbabwe Pretoria

  • 26 Nov 2003: ISS Seminar: Update on Zimbabwe - postponed Pretoria

  • 04 Nov 2003: ISS Seminar: Are land invasions a catalyst for farm attacks? Pretoria

  • 01 Nov 2003: ISS Paper 82: Liberating Liberia: Charles Taylor and the Rebels Who Unseated Him, Nicole Itano

  • 01 Nov 2003: ISS Paper 81: Coup d’État in São Tomé and Príncipe: Domestic Causes, the Role of Oil and former ‘Buffalo’ Battalion Soldiers, Gerhard Seibert

  • Situation Report:  13 Oct 2003: Fiddling While Zimbabwe Burns, Chris Maroleng  (PDF 106kb)

  • 10 Oct 2003: ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Coup d'Etat in São Tomé and Príncipe: Domestic causes, the role of oil and former ‘Buffalo’ Battalion Soldiers

  • Situation Report:  10 Oct 2003: Coup d’état in São Tomé and Príncipe: Domestic Causes, the Role of Oil and Former “Buffalo” Battalion Soldiers, Gerhard Seibert  (PDF)

  • 08 Sep 2003: Liberia: Peace at Last?, Jan Hennop  (PDF 184kb)

  • 01 Sep 2003: Monograph No 87: Zimbabwe's Turmoil. Problems and Prospects, edited by Richard Cornwell

  • 01 Aug 2003: ISS Paper 77: Cabinda: Notes on a Soon-To-Be-forgotten War, João Gomes Porto

  • Situation Report:  01 Jul 2003: Sao Tomé and Principe Update, Johann Smith  (PDF)

  • 24 Jun 2003: Interview with Dr Ghazi Salahudin Atabani, Presidential Advisor for Peace, Government of Sudan  (PDF)

  • 17 Jun 2003: Zimbabwe's Turmoil: Problems and Prospects  (PDF)

  • 01 Jun 2003: Sudan: Interview with Martin Kenyi and Garhoth Garkuoth of the Sudan Defence Force  (PDF)

  • 31 May 2003: Sudan - Interview with Dr Lam Akol of the Justice Party  (PDF)

  • 01 May 2003: CAR - Bozizé Replaces Patassé, Richard Cornwell

  • Situation Report:  01 Apr 2003: Western Sahara - Oil on Troubled Waters

  • 01 Apr 2003: Tension in Ituri - An Update on the DRC, Henri Boshoff  (PDF)

  • 01 Apr 2003: Burundi - Fragile Communities Shattered by Years of War, Jenny Clover

  • 07 Mar 2003: Sudan and her Neighbours

  • 12 Feb 2003: Great Lakes Update

  • 01 Dec 2002: Searching for Peace in the Democratic Republic of the Congo  (PDF 129kb)

  • 01 Sep 2002: The Peace Dividend in Angola: Strategic Implications for the Okavango Basin Cooperation

  • 01 Sep 2002: Scarcity and Surfeit. The Ecology of Africa’s Conflicts, J Lind, K Sturman (eds)

  • 30 Jul 2002: A 90-Day Plan to Bring Peace to the DRC? An Analysis of the Pretoria Agreement of 30 July 2002  (PDF)

  • 01 Jun 2002: Angola: Once Again Facing the Difficult Challenges of Peace: A Case for Cautious Optimism, Business in Africa Magazine, June 2002

  • 01 May 2002: ISS Paper 57: Diamonds and Other Precious Stones in Armed Conflicts and Law Enforcement Co-Operation in Southern Africa, Charles Goredema Charles Goredema

  • 01 Mar 2002: Death of Savimbi Renews Hope for Peace in Angola - And yet, can the Black Cockerel Fly?

  • 01 Dec 2001: Peace, Human Security and Conflict Prevention in Africa. Proceedings of the UNESCO-ISS Expert Meeting held in Pretoria, 23-24 July 2001

  • 01 Nov 2000: Angola's War Economy. The Role of Oil and Diamonds, J Cilliers, C Dietrich (eds)

  • 09 May 2000: Security in Africa. Paper by Jakkie Cilliers at the Ministerial Conference on Security, Stability, Development and Co-operation in Africa (CSSDCA), Abuja, 8-9 May 2000  (PDF 46kb)

  • 01 Sep 1999: ISS Paper 41: Congo-Brazzaville - The Deep End of the Pool, Hannelie De Beer and Richard Cornwell

  • 01 Jun 1998: ISS Paper 32: Angola - At the Precipice, Jakkie Potgieter and Richard Cornwell

  • 01 Apr 1998: ISS Paper 30: Angola - Endgame or Stalemate? Richard Cornwell and Jakkie Potgieter

  • 01 Feb 1998: Monograph No 19: SADC and Sub-Regional Security: Unde Venis Et Quo Vadis, Mark Malan

  • 01 Aug 1997: ISS Paper 24: US Response to African Crises: An Overview and Preliminary Analysis of the ACRI, Mark Malan

  • 01 Apr 1997: ISS Paper 20: Don't Hold the African Crisis Response Force Hostage to Unrealistic Demands, Rocky Williams

  • 01 Feb 1997: ISS Paper 15: Some Reflections on the Crisis in Zaire, Hussein Solomon

  • 01 Oct 1996: Monograph No 6: Sink or Swim? Water, Resource Security and State Co-Operation, Edited by Hussein Solomon

  • 01 Jul 1996: Monograph No 5: New Partners in Peace: Towards a Southern African Peacekeeping Capacity, Edited by Mark Malan

  • 01 Feb 1996: ISS Paper 1: Early Warning and Conflict in Africa, William Nhara

  • 01 Dec 1985: Counter-Insurgency in Rhodesia, Jakkie Cilliers  (out of print)

  • Sudan - The Conflict in Darfur



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