California 2009 ballot propositions

Six statewide ballot propositions will be on a special May 19, 2009 election ballot in California. The ballot measures were voted onto the ballot in a special legislative session in Sacramento the week of February 16th as a negotiated effort between Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Democratic majority in the California State Legislature and a handful of Republican legislators.,

Although the six ballot propositions (1A through 1F) are intended to close an approximately $42 billion budget gap, the California Legislative Analyst's Office, an agency of the state government, said in early March that tax revenues flowing into the state treasury are "well below" the projections it used earlier in the year, and that California's government now faces an additional $8 billion gap in addition to the earlier $42 billion gap.

Several statewide ballot propositions that were discussed as possible contenders for a 2009 statewide ballot will instead be on the 2010 California ballot.

On May 19 ballot

See also: May 19, 2009 ballot measures in California

Proposition	Description
Proposition 1A	Prop 1A combines a 4-year tax hike of about $16 billion with a state spending cap
Proposition 1B	Modification of California Proposition 98 (1998) to free up money for state's budget overruns.
Proposition 1C	Sell rights to future lottery proceeds as a way of raising some cash now for state budget.
Proposition 1D	Asks voters to approve taking money from Prop 10 in 1998 for purposes not allowed in that 1998 vote.
Proposition 1E	Asks voters to take money from Prop 63 for purposes not allowed in that 2004 vote.
Proposition 1F	No pay raises for state legislators in years when there is a state budget deficit

Public opinion polling

• The Field Poll conducted a public opinion research survey between February 20 and March 1 to assess the current state of public opinion regarding the six budget-related measures on the May 19 ballot. A Sacramento Bee report notes that the poll question on Prop 1A "omitted the fact that it would trigger $16 billion in tax hikes.",

• A Public Policy Institute of California poll that concluded in late March showed declining support for 5 of the 6 budget measures. Mark Baldassare of PPIC characterized the poll results as indicating, "Voters' disappointment with the state's elected leaders is deep, and the temptation to send a message by voting down these propositions is strong.",

• On April 20-21, SurveyUSA conducted a poll of 1,300 California adults for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. 15% of the registered voters they spoke with had already cast their vote. They concluded, "As early voting begins on six state of California ballot propositions, opposition is growing to 5 of the 6 measures."

• Field conducted a second poll between April 16-26 that indicates that "voters strongly oppose" five of the six budget measures on the May 19 ballot, including Prop 1A. According to Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo, "The majority of voters just doesn't believe what is being sold to them. The skepticism extends up and down the ballot. Voters feel the Legislature isn't doing its job, hasn't been able to work with the governor and is just passing these things on to them."

• PPIC conducted its second poll on the propositions between April 27-May 4. This poll shows growing opposition to five of the six measures. Worse news, from the point-of-view of supporters, is the poll's finding that "the more voters learn about the measures, the more likely they are to want to vote them down."

Prop	Pollster	Conducted	Likely voters	Pollster	Conducted	Outcome	Pollster	Conducted	Outcome
1A	Field	February 20-March 1	57% yes/21% no	PPIC	Late March	39% yes/46% no	SurveyUSA	April 20-21	29% yes/42% no
1B	Field	February 20-March 1	53% yes/30% no	PPIC	Late March	44% yes/41% no	SurveyUSA	April 20-21	42% yes/37% no
1C	Field	February 20-March 1	47% yes/39% no	PPIC	Late March	37% yes/50% no	SurveyUSA	April 20-21	23% yes/41% no
1D	Field	February 20-March 1	48% yes/36% no	PPIC	Late March	39% yes/46% no	SurveyUSA	April 20-21	37% yes/39% no
1E	Field	February 20-March 1	57% yes/23% no	PPIC	Late March	47% yes/37% no	SurveyUSA	April 20-21	32% yes/41% no
1F	Field	February 20-March 1	77% yes/13% no	PPIC	Late March	81% yes/13% no	SurveyUSA	April 20-21	32% yes/34% no

Voter turnout predictions

• In contrast to the 78% voter turnout in November 2008 in San Mateo County, elections manager David Tom says he expects a much lower turnout for the May 19 election, in the vicinity of 30-35%.

• Ventura County Assistant Registrar of Voters Tracy Saucedo said on May 15 that about a third of voters who had been issued mail-in ballots had returned them, or about 13% of Ventura County's 422,342 registered voters. This rate of voting is about the same as the June 2008 ballot proposition election, in which a total of 29.5% of voters in the county ultimately voted.

Not on 2009 ballot

Other ballot propositions that had been under discussion but which will not be on the May ballot are:

• California Senate Constitutional Amendment 13 (2009)
• California Assembly Bill 583 (2009)
• California End the Two-Thirds Requirement Amendment (2010)
• California Assembly Bill 220 (2009).

The Maldonado amendments

Interview with Maldonado

State senator Abel Maldonado wanted three new constitutional amendments in exchange for his vote on a budget package that includes $14.3 billion in tax increases. One of these amendments will appear on the May 2009 ballot, and two will be on the June 8, 2010 ballot.

The three propositions Maldonado negotiated for are:

• California Proposition 1F (May 2009)
• California No Pay for No Budget (2009)
• California Top Two Primary (2010).

External links

• Complete official California Voter Guide to all seven statewide propositions
• Secretary of State's list of the 7 ballot measures
• California Secretary of State's announcement about May 19 ballot measures
• Current California initiatives
• At last: A budget deal
• AM Alert: The Coming Ballot Fight

Additional reading

• Smart Voter page on the six May 19 ballot propositions
• Stakes high for cluster of budget initiatives
• Strange times for Democrats looking at May 19 vote