Population growth
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Population growth is the change in population over time, and can be quantified as the change in the number of individuals in a population using "per unit time" for measurement. The term population growth can technically refer to any species, but almost always refers to humans, and it is often used informally for the more specific demographic term population growth rate (see below), and is often used to refer specifically to the growth of the population of the world.
Simple models of population growth include the Malthusian Growth Model and the logistic model.
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[edit] Population growth rate
In demographics and ecology, Population growth rate (PGR) is the fractional rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases. Specifically, PGR ordinarily refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula:
(In the limit of a sufficiently small time period.)
The above formula can be expanded to: growth rate = crude birth rate - crude death rate + net immigration rate, or ∆P/P = (B/P) - (D/P) + (I/P) - (E/P), where P is the total population, B is the number of births, D is the number of deaths, I is the number of immigrants, and E is the number of emigrants.
This formula allows for the identification of the source of population growth, whether due to natural increase or an increase in the net immigration rate. Natural increase is an increase in the native-born population, stemming from either a higher birth rate, a lower death rate, or a combination of the two. Net immigration rate is the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants.
The most common way to express population growth is as a ratio, not as a rate. The change in population over a unit time period is expressed as a percentage of the population at the beginning of the time period. That is:
A positive growth ratio (or rate) indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth ratio (or rate) indicates population decline. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of people at the two times -- net difference between births, deaths and migration is zero. However, a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times. [1] Equivalently, percent death rate = the average number of deaths in a year for every 100 people in the total population.
A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than one indicates that the population of women is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of women is decreasing.
[edit] Human population growth rate
Globally, the growth rate of the human population has been steadily declining since peaking in 1962 and 1963 at 2.20% per annum. In 2007 the growth rate was 1.19% per annum. The last one hundred years have seen a rapid increase in population due to medical advances and massive increase in agricultural productivity[3] made possible by the Green Revolution.[4][5][6]
The actual annual growth in the number of humans fell from its peak of 87.5 million per annum in 1989, to a low of 76.4 million per annum in 2002, at which it stabilised and has started to slowly rise again to 79.4 million per annum in 2007, and 80.2 million per annum in 2009. Growth remains high in the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.[7] According to projections by the U.S. Census Bureau, the annual world population growth will peak in 2011 at 80.9 million.[8]
Some countries experience negative population growth, especially in Eastern Europe (mainly due to low fertility rates and emigration). In Southern Africa, growth is slowing due to the high number of HIV-related deaths. Some Western Europe countries might also encounter negative population growth.[9] Japan's population began decreasing in 2005 [10]
[edit] Excessive growth and decline
Main articles: Overpopulation and population decline
Population exceeding the carrying capacity of an area or environment is called overpopulation. It may be caused by growth in population or by reduction in capacity. Spikes in human population can cause problems such as pollution and traffic congestion, these might be resolved or worsened by technological and economic changes. Conversely, such areas may be considered "underpopulated" if the population is not large enough to maintain an economic system (see population decline).
[edit] Population growth rate in the United States
The US Census projects that the population will increase from 281.4 million in 2000 to 439.1 million in 2050. Population growth in the United States is unique in all the world. It is a country with a high Human Development Index (HDI) and is one of the world's wealthiest countries. The overwhelming number of countries with high HDI also have sub-replacement total fertility rates (Israel and Saudi Arabia are big exceptions). The United States has replacement total fertility rate, and in addition has high immigration, both legal and illegal. As a result the population growth rate is projected to remain constant for many years and a lower growth rate is expected to follow. The change of growth rate relative to Latin America and Caribbean is shown in the graph.
[edit] See also
- Carrying capacity
- Demographic economics
- Demographic transition
- Density dependent inhibition
- Exponential growth
- Family planning
- Green Revolution
- Natalism and Antinatalism
- Overpopulation
- Urban sprawl
- Population pyramid
- Population decline
- Immigration
- Immigration reduction
- World population
- World population estimates
- Zero population growth
- Logistic function - concept related to logistic model
- Ronald Fisher - who referred to the population growth rate as the Malthusian Parameter
- List of countries by fertility rate
- List of countries by population growth rate
[edit] References
- ^ Association of Public Health Epidemiologists in Ontario
- ^ Population growth rate
- ^ BBC NEWS | The end of India's green revolution?
- ^ Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy
- ^ Rising food prices curb aid to global poor
- ^ Record rise in wheat price prompts UN official to warn that surge in food prices may trigger social unrest in developing countries
- ^ Ron Nielsen, The little green handbook, Picador, New York (2006) ISBN 0312425813
- ^ http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpop.html
- ^ UN population projections
- ^ Japan sees biggest population fall
[edit] External links
- World population growth rates 1950-2050
- UN University annual "State of the Future" report, including updates on Millennium Project goals including balancing global population growth & resources
- BBC News - Birth rate 'harms poverty goals' - 08/12/06
- Trend of growth rate with total global population
- Visual representation of global population and other statistics
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