WITH less than 60 days to go before world leaders meet in Copenhagen to thrash out a new global climate deal, how do the chips already on the table stack up?

Not very well, according to the latest estimate of the carbon cuts promised by rich nations, which shows that the pledges made so far fall short of what is needed to avoid dangerous climate change.

The promises were analysed by the World Resources Institute (WRI), an environmental think tank in Washington DC (see map). Together, the nations concerned account for 98 per cent of emissions from the developed world. Their pledges would result in emissions dropping by 10 to 24 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020.

This is less than the 25 to 40 per cent cut that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates developed nations need to make to prevent atmospheric carbon dioxide levels exceeding 450 parts per million. Even if this were achieved, there is a more than 50:50 chance that the planet will warm by more than 2 °C. Higher concentrations and warmer temperatures are widely predicted to trigger severe environmental impacts, including drought and sea level rises that will displace millions of people.

"The reductions will not be enough to meet IPCC recommendations," says Jennifer Morgan, director of the WRI's climate and energy programme. "We urge industrialised countries to bring forward more ambitious pledges."

Among other things, the analysis highlights the importance of the precise wording of governments' pledges. Russia's statement in June 2009 that it will reduce emissions to 10 to 15 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 equates to roughly a 40 per cent increase in emissions compared to 2007 levels, for example.

Malte Meinshausen of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany says that even the WRI's gloomy picture may be too optimistic. He points out that the WRI's figures include the impact of "soft" pledges like US policies on energy efficiency. Analyses that consider only emissions targets indicate the developed world will cut emissions by no more than 16 per cent by 2020. There is a gap between the level of ambition of the developed nations and the IPCC recommendations, says Meinshausen.

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