Jan Cienski's Notebook:

Poles not surprised by missile defense decision

The decision by the Obama administration to pull the plug on the missile defense shield program did not cause much surprise in Poland, where the government has long been aware of the new administration’s lack of enthusiasm for the project.

“I would not call what happened today a defeat for Poland,” said Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister. The defense shield program, agreed to by Poland last August during the war between Russia and Georgia, would have seen a 10-missile interceptor base built in the north of the country.

However for Poland the key was that the base would permanently base U.S. troops on its soil. Poles had been unconvinced by the U.S. argument that the system was needed to protect Europe from a possible attack from a rogue state like Iran. “Iran is no enemy of ours,” said a Polish official recently. Instead, Poland saw the base as a way of beefing up its security against a possible threat from a resurgent Russia.

Although Poland has been a member of NATO since 1999, the Atlantic alliance has no bases on the territory of the former Soviet satellite. Poles are hoping that the U.S. will still base some soldiers in Poland, despite Washington’s change of focus. After speaking with Obama, Tusk said he hoped for an “exclusive” relationship with the U.S.

Obama in Poland

Barrack Obama’s grinning face peered from the front pages of most Polish newspapers this morning and many Polish television stations broadcast the inauguration live, with commentary by panellists who noted the pomp and precision of the ceremonies.

There were no parties on the grey streets of the Polish capital, but Poles are looking to the new administration with realism, expecting that Mr Obama will be so preoccupied with economic crisis and wars that he will have little time and energy for central Europe.

The most visible commentary came from Radoslaw Sikorski, the foreign minister, who penned an article in the Gazeta Wyborcza daily headlined: “Good Luck, Mr President.”

“We are ready to support the new US administration everywhere that our interests coincide and our potential allows,” he wrote, adding that Warsaw was particularly interested in maintaining the strategic relationship between the two countries, particularly with respect to the planned missile defence shield, elements of which may be located on Polish territory.

In that he was backed by Lech Kaczynski, Poland’s president, who said he hoped Mr Obama would quickly realise that the shield was “crucial”.

In a break with the relief felt across much of Europe over George W. Bush’s departure, Mr Kaczynski said he was, “filled with respect” for the outgoing president.

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Why Poland

I got to Poland in 2003, where I work for the Financial Times. I've been a correspondent in the U.S. and in Russia and Central Asia, and have covered stories in places like Zimbabwe and Israel as well.

Poland has been an enormously interesting beat, as I've watched it join the EU in 2004, and begin to take its place among the rest of the nations in Europe after a very long absence. I write mainly about politics and economics, and try to look for angles that will illuminate the enormous changes that Poland is undergoing. A few months ago, I did something on the disappearance of the iconic "Maluch" car, a 600cc-engined Fiat, which had helped motorise Poland in the 1970s, and is now being supplanted with modern used cars imported from Germany.

The next year promises to be very interesting as well, with Poland in place to be one of the only economies in Europe to show any economic growth at all.  That doesn't mean that there will not be severe economic pain as joblessness rises, and important parts of the economy like housing and car manufacturing decline sharply.

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