David L. Stern's Notebook:

Manas airbase stays open to US

And in the end, it did indeed come down to money.

Western news agencies report today that Kyrgyz and U.S. officials have reached an agreement to allow American troops to continue using Manas airbase, just outside the capital Bishkek. Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev, you will recall, announced in February that his central Asian state was closing the base to Americans, who used it as a transit and refueling point for operations in Afghanistan. Bakiev gave the U.S. six months to pack up and leave, and as recently as a week ago western publications were reporting that the Kyrgyz were standing fast by their deadline.

But today a member of the Kyrgyz parliament told reporters that a deal had been brokered — signed just yesterday, actually. Now it will be submitted to parliament for ratification. This shouldn't be too much of a worry since Bakiev's party controls all but a few seats there.

The new agreement reportedly increases the rent from $17.5 million to $60 million, plus tens of millions of dollars more to upgrade the international airport where the base is located, as well as money for "economic development" and to battle terrorism and narcotics trafficking.

The base will also probably shrink its footprint. At the moment the base is home to some 1,000 troops — mostly American, but with contingents from other NATO countries — and about 15,000 troops and 500 tons of cargo pass through it every month. So far there is no mention in reports that the troop numbers will decrease. But cargo will be limited to "non-military."

Russia's reaction to this is anybody's guess. Bakiev made his original announcement during an official visit to Moscow, after meeting with his Russian counterpart Dmitri Medvedev. The Russians also revealed at the time that they were providing Kyrgyzstan with some $2 billion in aid. Numerous observers believed that the Kremlin was paying the Kyrgyz to kick the Americans out.

So was it, in the end, all just a dog and pony show to get Washington to cough up more cash? Who knows? But it seems unlikely that Moscow would go along with this just so that the Kyrgyz could deposit $60 million more in their bank account. And it seems unlikely that the Russians would not want to wring some sort of concessions from the Obama administration in return for their cooperation.
 

In Georgia, "Misha" is hanging on

TBILISI — Georgian opposition leaders have given President Mikheil Saakashvili 24 hours to offer his resignation. Something tells me that they won’t get what they’re demanding — at least, not in the time frame they’ve laid down.

The take-away from the country’s long-awaited April 9 anti-government demonstration is this: Saakashvili is deeply unpopular among a large portion of the population. But how unpopular? And how far are they willing to take this?

(Most people, friends and foes alike, refer to him simply as “Misha,” short for Mikheil. Georgia has a population of only five million. Politics here tend to the intimacy of an extended family — and the brutality as well.)

The protest did not produce the 150,000 protesters that opposition leaders promised. Still, the 30-40,000 who did turn out were highly motivated, and seemed to originate from a wide cross-section of society. Spirits were high as the demonstrators marched down Rustaveli boulevard, Tbilisi’s majestic main thoroughfare. Some carried placards bearing a photo one of Saakashvili’s best-forgotten moments from last year’s war over South Ossetia — when he leapt under bodyguards, face twisted in fear, as a Russian bomber swooped overhead.

The rap sheet against Misha is long, and even those who support him (or at least think that he should remain in office) acknowledge that he has committed major blunders. Georgia is not as free as it could be. Saakashvili’s behavior is erratic, impulsive and sometimes outright bizarre. The war last year was a disaster, pitting an unprepared Georgian army against a Russian military machine that is many times stronger even in its present weakened condition. The economy is suffering, despite the billions that the West has poured into the country.

Still is the situation that Saakashvili is merely disliked, or that the opposition is actually popular? There is a difference. And the reality right now seems to lean more towards the first option than the second. Georgia’s opposition — a motley collection if there ever was one — is indeed at the moment united. But just barely. And even if they remain together for long enough to push the president out of office, most likely this unity will not last for many moments after the door slams.

“Many of you don’t like those who are standing together with us today, and I don’t like many of them, but we gathered to achieve a common goal, and our goal is the resignation of Saakashvili and the saving of Georgia,” said Salome Zurabishvili, former foreign minister under Saakashvili and now leader of her own opposition political party, Georgia’s Way.

Hardly words to inspire confidence.

Georgia is a country that is as unpredictable as it is beautiful. At the moment it may seem Misha is not going anywhere — but stranger things have happened. And in Georgia these kinds of events take on a life and momentum of their own, the longer they go on. Hardly anyone believed that Saakashvili and his allies Zurab Zhvania and Nino Burjanadze would drive Eduard Shevardnadze from office, when they began protests that culminated in the 2003 Rose Revolution.

Some leaders of today’s demonstration have promised to camp out in front of parliament until Misha steps down. The question is: what if they ultimately succeed?

Some more photos of the protest:

Ukraine: Watch this space

Last week saw a flurry of activity in Ukraine, which may lead to bigger developments on a number of fronts.

First, the country’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, voted overwhelmingly to hold presidential elections on October 25 — instead of January, next year, as had been expected. President Viktor Yushchenko had been pushing for the January date, and may still challenge the scheduling in court. But then he also made noises that he would accept an October vote if parliamentary elections were also moved up and held at the same time. And he said he would announce soon whether or not he would run — still an incredible prospect, given his approval ratings hover around 2 percent.

Then the main opposition party, the Party of Regions, in parliament formed a human wall around the speaker’s podium and barricaded doors to block passage of a new reform program, which needs to be accepted for Ukraine to restart a desperately needed, and oft-delayed, IMF bailout plan. Party of Regions officials say the government’s program is poorly conceived and not comprehensive enough. IMF officials are due to visit Kiev again this week.

And on Friday, POR held a demonstration on Kiev’s central Independence Square. Possibly 10,000 assembled, and party leader Viktor Yanukovich spoke. The size of the gathering was not so much an indication of POR’s popularity, as much as their organizational abilities.

In Ukrainian politics — which at the moment seems to resemble more the clown interlude between the main acts than it does an actual circus — Party of Regions is as despised and discredited as the other two main political groupings, Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine and the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko.

Elections, economy, demonstrations — events in Ukraine are converging for what could be a fun-filled spring.

The part about the taxi drivers is a bit optimistic ...

This appeared on a web page devoted to Makeevka, Ukraine, where I just visited for a story on the steel industry. This description gives an idea of the incredible perils I face in working here. (The boldface type appears in the original):

The address system of Makeevka city is the most complicated in Ukraine. For example there are 157 streets of identical names in various parts of the city, 65 streets repeating 3 times, 12 streets repeating 4 times, 8 streets repeating 5 times and even streets repeating 6 times (Oktyabrskaya Str.) and 1 street repeating 8 times (Stepnaya Str.). There are also duplicate houses numbers on same streets, various combinations of same addresses and chaotic houses numeration in Makeevka city of Ukraine. So the only people in Makeevka who understand the city address specificity fully are local taxi drivers.

What was she thinking?

Yulia Tymoshenko, the Ukrainian prime minister, recently published an op-ed piece on the Web site of the British newspaper The Guardian, telling the Brits… that they should look to France for leadership in the European Union.

It starts:

“Since the end of the first world war, France has consistently risen to the challenge of restructuring Europe in times of crisis... If we are to see a stronger Europe emerge from today's challenges, visionary French leadership is needed again.”

And ends:

“As at so many times before, now — with all of our economies in peril — is a moment for decisive French leadership.”

What seems to be a sincere call for French action, and a warning against French isolationism (on the eve of a meeting with the French leadership) seems to have gone a bit astray, to say the least. Telling the Brits, in a British newspaper, that they should look to their rivals across the channel for leadership has struck a few nerves.

Brits are known for their sense of humor, as well as their French-bashing and Euro-bashing sentiments (even in a liberal newspaper like the Guardian). Both are in excellent display in the comment space below Tymoshenko’s piece. Even if you don’t agree with some of the British-centric views, read it anyways. I assure you you’ll get a good laugh. Just an example:

“I assume that you were writing two articles for two newspapers but got them mixed up. Where's the article saying that "we need British leadership" gone? La Figaro?

They'll love that.”

David L.'s Links:

More Dispatches:

• Latest