View source for North American Free Trade Agreement

=== Canada ===
{{Expand section|date=September 2018}}

====Historical context====
[[File:Obama, Peña y Harper. IX Cumbre de Líderes de América del Norte.jpg|upright=1.15|thumb|Obama, Peña Nieto and Harper at the IX [[North American Leaders' Summit]] (informally known as the ''Three Amigos Summit'') in [[Toluca]]]]

In 2008, Canadian [[export]]s to the United States and Mexico were at $381.3 billion, with [[import]]s at $245.1 billion.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.naftanow.org/facts/ |title=NAFTA – Fast Facts: North American Free Trade Agreement |publisher=NAFTANow.org |date=April 4, 2012 |access-date=October 26, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131030003118/http://www.naftanow.org/facts/ |archive-date=October 30, 2013 |url-status=dead }}</ref> According to a 2004 article by [[University of Toronto]] economist [[Daniel Trefler]], NAFTA produced a significant net benefit to Canada in 2003, with long-term [[productivity]] increasing by up to 15 percent in industries that experienced the deepest [[tariff]] cuts.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Trefler|first=Daniel|date=Sep 2004|title=The Long and Short of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement|journal=American Economic Review|language=en|volume=94|issue=4|pages=870–895|doi=10.1257/0002828042002633|url=http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/6721/1/The_Long_and_Short_of_the_Canada-U.S._Free_Trade_Agreement.pdf}}</ref> While the contraction of low-productivity plants reduced [[employment]] (up to 12 percent of existing positions), these job losses lasted less than a decade; overall, unemployment in Canada has fallen since the passage of the act. Commenting on this [[trade-off]], Trefler said that the critical question in [[trade policy]] is to understand "how freer trade can be implemented in an industrialized economy in a way that recognizes both the long-run gains and the short-term adjustment costs borne by workers and others".<ref>{{cite book|last1=Bernstein|first1=William J.|title=A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World|publisher=[[Grove Press]]|date=16 May 2009}}</ref>

A study in 2007 found that NAFTA had "a substantial impact on international [[Volume (finance)|trade volumes]], but a modest effect on prices and welfare".<ref name=":1">{{Cite journal|last=Romalis|first=John|date=2007-07-12|title=NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade|journal=Review of Economics and Statistics|volume=89|issue=3|pages=416–35|doi=10.1162/rest.89.3.416|s2cid=57562094|issn=0034-6535|url=http://www.nber.org/papers/w11059.pdf}}</ref>

According to a 2012 study, with reduced NAFTA trade tariffs, trade with the United States and Mexico only increased by a modest 11% in Canada compared to an increase of 41% for the U.S. and 118% for Mexico.<ref name=":2">{{Cite journal|last1=Caliendo|first1=Lorenzo|last2=Parro|first2=Fernando|date=2015-01-01|title=Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA|journal=The Review of Economic Studies|language=en|volume=82|issue=1|pages=1–44|doi=10.1093/restud/rdu035|issn=0034-6527|citeseerx=10.1.1.189.1365|s2cid=20591348}}</ref>{{rp|3}} Moreover, the U.S. and Mexico benefited more from the tariff reductions component, with welfare increases of 0.08% and 1.31%, respectively, with Canada experiencing a decrease of 0.06%.<ref name=":2"/>{{rp|4}}

====Current issues====
According to a 2017 report by the New York City based public policy think tank report, [[Council on Foreign Relations]] (CFR), bilateral trade in agricultural products tripled in size from 1994 to 2017 and is considered to be one of the largest economic effects of NAFTA on U.S.-Canada trade with Canada becoming the U.S. agricultural sectors' leading importer.<ref name="CFR_Sergie_2018">{{cite web|last1=McBride|first1=James|last2=Sergie|first2=Mohammed Aly|title=NAFTA's Economic Impact|url=http://www.cfr.org/trade/naftas-economic-impact/p15790|publisher=[[Council on Foreign Relations]] (CFR) think tank|access-date=September 3, 2018|orig-year=February 14, 2014|date=2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170516093105/http://www.cfr.org/trade/naftas-economic-impact/p15790|archive-date=May 16, 2017|url-status=dead}}</ref> Canadian fears of losing manufacturing jobs to the United States did not materialize with manufacturing employment holding "steady". However, with Canada's labour productivity levels at 72% of U.S. levels, the hopes of closing the "productivity gap" between the two countries were also not realized.<ref name="CFR_Sergie_2018"/>

According to a 2018 [[Sierra Club]] report, Canada's commitments under NAFTA and the [[Paris agreement]] conflicted. The Paris commitments were voluntary, and NAFTA's were compulsory.<ref>{{cite web|title=NAFTA and Climate Report 2018|url=https://www.sierraclub.org/sites/www.sierraclub.org/files/uploads-wysiwig/NAFTA%20and%20Climate%20Report%202018.pdf|publisher=[[Sierra Club]]}}</ref>

According to a 2018 report by Gordon Laxter published by the [[Council of Canadians]], NAFTA's Article 605, energy proportionality rule ensures that Americans had "virtually unlimited first access to most of Canada's oil and natural gas" and Canada could not reduce oil, natural gas and electricity exports (74% its oil and 52% its natural gas) to the U.S., even if Canada was experiencing shortages. These provisions that seemed logical when NAFTA was signed in 1993 are no longer appropriate.<ref name="canadians_2018">{{cite web|url=https://canadians.org/sites/default/files/publications/report-nafta-energy-laxer-0118.pdf |title=Escaping Mandatory Oil Exports: Why Canada needs to dump NAFTA's energy proportionality rule |first=Gordon |last=Laxer |pages=28 }}</ref>{{rp|4}} The Council of Canadians promoted environmental protection and was against NAFTA's role in encouraging development of the [[tar sands]] and [[fracking]].<ref name="canadians_2018"/>

US President Donald Trump, angered by Canada's dairy tax of "almost 300%", threatened to leave Canada out of the NAFTA.<ref name=":16">{{Cite news|url=https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2018/09/08/the-coddling-of-the-canadian-cow-farmer|title=The coddling of the Canadian cow farmer|newspaper=The Economist|access-date=2018-09-12|language=en}}</ref> Since 1972, Canada has been operating on a "[[Supply management (Canada)|supply management]]" system, which the United States is attempting to pressure it out of, specifically focusing on the dairy industry. However, this has not yet taken place, as Quebec, which holds approximately half the country's dairy farms, still supports supply management.<ref name=":16" />