2024 United States presidential election
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538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win | |||||||
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  2024 electoral map, based on 2020 census | |||||||
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 2024 U.S. presidential election | |
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The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post-2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden stated in January 2022 his intent to run for reelection to a second term, with Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[2] As of November 2022[update], Biden has not yet committed to a reelection campaign.[3] After repeatedly suggesting he would run, former president Donald Trump announced his candidacy for president for a second nonconsecutive term on November 15, 2022.[4]
In the United States, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held by the major parties to determine their nominees. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.
Similarly, the general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[5] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.
Effects of the 2020 census
The election has been the early subject of attention by analysts and commentators, as it will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College, which will follow the 2020 United States census.[6][7] This realignment of electoral college votes will remain consistent through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[8]
The House of Representatives will have redistributed the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 census, and the states will conduct a redistricting cycle in 2021 and 2022, where congressional and state legislative districts will be redrawn. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have bipartisan or nonpartisan redistricting commissions). The party that wins a presidential election often experiences a coattail effect, which helps other candidates of that party win elections.[9] In 2020, although its nominee Joe Biden won the presidential election, the Democratic Party did not flip any state legislature chambers and in fact lost both New Hampshire legislative chambers and the Montana governorship. This allowed the Republican Party to have redistricting control of seats in New Hampshire,[10][11] which had the potential to lead to gerrymandering that will stay in effect until the 2030 census, similar to the REDMAP project after the 2010 census.[11][12][13]
Candidate eligibility
Section 1 of Article Two of the United States Constitution specifies that the president must be at least 35 years of age, a natural-born US citizen, and been a resident of the US for 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids anyone from being elected president more than twice. Both incumbent president Biden and former president Donald Trump are eligible to seek a second term. If Trump is elected, he would be the first president since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to win a second non-consecutive term.[14]
Potential campaign issues
Economy
As of October 17, 2022, a New York Times/Sienna College poll shows Americans are most concerned about the state of the economy and the rate of inflation, and 49% of likely voters intend to vote for Republicans and 45% for Democrats in the 2022 congressional elections. The percentage of voters who consider the economy the most important issue increased to 44%, from 36% in July.[15]
COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic left behind significant economic effects which could persist into the 2024 presidential election. The high visibility governors received during their responses to the pandemic has been viewed as having given them a boost in possible 2024 contention, in contrast to the significant advantage senators have had in recent cycles.[16]
Abortion
The Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision in June 2022, which overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision and permitted U.S. states to fully ban abortion for the first time in nearly 50 years, has made abortion a more significant issue. In the 2024 election, the topic of abortion is expected to play a role in the Republican primary. Potential candidates are divided on the matter, with former Vice President Mike Pence supporting a nationwide ban on abortion, whereas other potential candidates have struck a moderate tone and suggested that the matter should remain the decision of state governments.[17]
Crime
As of November 2022, rising criminal activity and gun violence has put a stress on communities, law enforcement and political parties. The 2024 field is projected to respond to rising crime rates differently on partisan lines.[18] President Biden has advocated for an assault weapons ban, as well as federal funding to train and deploy more police.[19][20]
Election process
Donald Trump did not concede defeat to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, citing unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud. Republican officials in the Trump administration and in Congress have supported attempts to overturn the election.[21][22] Trump continues to deny the results of the election as of 2022[update].[23][24] Both Biden and Trump have indicated that they intend to run for president in 2024, suggesting a potential rematch of the 2020 election.[25]
Concerns have been raised by election security experts that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify election results. In the 2022 United States elections, the majority of Republican candidates in five battleground states falsely claimed or implied that the 2020 presidential election was illegitimate.[26] Election legitimacy was a major political issue during the 2022 elections, and it is credited for a strong Democratic performance that year.[27][28]
Democratic Party
Incumbent president Joe Biden declared his intent in January 2022 to run for re-election, keeping vice president Kamala Harris as his running mate.[2] However, on September 15, he said in a CBS 60 Minutes interview that he has not yet committed to run.[29] In a private conversation with civil rights activist Al Sharpton on October 3, he reportedly said he is seeking re-election.[30] On October 11, he said in an interview on CNN that he would decide whether or not to run after the 2022 midterm elections.[31] He is the oldest person to assume the office at age 78,[32] and he would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would be 86 at the end of his second term. During late 2021, as Biden was suffering from low approval ratings in the polls, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election.[33] If this occurs, Vice President Harris and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg could be considered likely candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination, both having run for president in 2020.[34][35] Some prominent Democrats have publicly urged Biden not to run, including U.S. Representatives Dean Phillips and Carolyn Maloney and former U.S. Representative and 2022 South Carolina gubernatorial nominee Joe Cunningham, though Maloney later apologized and said that Biden should run again.[36][37] There is speculation that Biden will face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[38][39] If Biden is not the presidential nominee in 2024, it will be the first election since 1968 in which an eligible[a] incumbent president was not the eventual nominee of their party after Lyndon B. Johnson.
Republican Party
Donald Trump was defeated by Biden in 2020 and is currently eligible to run again in 2024. He is seeking to become the second president to serve two non-consecutive terms, after only Grover Cleveland (who did so by winning the 1892 United States presidential election).[40][41] and is now considered the early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination with his announcement for his 2024 campaign on November 15, 2022.[42] However, there are multiple factors working against Trump: the hearings held by the United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack have damaged public opinion towards him,[43][44] Florida Governor Ron DeSantis raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022,[45] and in 2022 the FBI searched Trump's estate at Mar-a-Lago.[46][47]
Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[48][49]
Libertarian Party
Publicly expressed interest
As of November 2022,[update] the following individuals have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.
- Justin Amash, United States Representative from MI-03 (2011–2021),[b] member of the Michigan House of Representatives from the 72nd district (2009–2011)[50]
- Dave Smith, comedian and political commentator[51]
Independents, other third parties, or party unknown
Candidates
Declared intent to run
As of November 2022,[update] the following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.
- Howard Stern, radio host[52]
- Kanye West, rapper and businessman, independent candidate for president in 2020[53]
Publicly expressed interest
As of November 2022,[update] the following individuals have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.
- Andrew Yang, businessman, Democratic candidate for president in 2020 and candidate for New York City mayor in 2021, founder and co-chair of the Forward Party[54]
Declined to be candidates
- Mark Cuban, investor and entrepreneur[55]
- Dwayne Johnson, actor and businessman[56][better source needed][57]
Vice presidential speculation
Stern has said that actor Bradley Cooper will be his running mate,[58] although Cooper has not publicly spoken about Stern's claim.
General election polling
- Biden vs. Trump
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/Undecided [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | September 18 – October 26, 2022 | November 1, 2022 | 44.5% | 44.3% | 11.2% | Biden +0.2 |
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léger | November 11–13, 2022 | 1,007 (A) | – | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 2, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | – | 39% | 44% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | October 27–31, 2022 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Benenson Strategy Group | October 27–30, 2022 | 1,000 (V) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights | October 24–26, 2022 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | October 22–26, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Suffolk University | October 19–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Emerson College | October 18–19, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | October 13–17, 2022 | 1,209 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | October 12–17, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris | October 12–13, 2022 | 2,010 (RV) | – | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 12, 2022 | 1,110 (LV) | – | 40% | 41% | 19% |
| Siena College/The New York Times | October 9–12, 2022 | 792 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| John Zogby Strategies | October 5, 2022 | 1,006 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 2–3, 2022 | 1,128 (LV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | September 23–27, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | September 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Emerson College | September 20–21, 2022 | 1,368 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | September 18–21, 2022 | 908 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Premise | September 16–19, 2022 | 1,703 (A) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Echelon Insights | September 16–19, 2022 | 1,056 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Refield & Wilton Strategies | September 14–15, 2022 | 1,163 (LV) | – | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Marquette University | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,282 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
| Siena College/The New York Times | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,399 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Harvard/Harris | September 7–8, 2022 | 1,854 (RV) | – | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 1,228 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | September 2–6, 2022 | 1,247 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Premise | September 2–5, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 28, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | August 17–25, 2022 | 1,313 (RV) | – | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Emerson College | August 23–24, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | August 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Echelon Insights | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | August 18–22, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | August 17, 2022 | 1,156 (LV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | July 28 – August 1, 2022 | 1,152 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | July 29, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | – | 35% | 42% | 23% |
| Harvard/Harris | July 27–28, 2022 | 1,885 (RV) | – | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 26–27, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Suffolk University | July 22–25, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Emerson College | July 19–20, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights | July 15–18, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 11–14, 2022 | 1,085 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 48% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | July 9, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | – | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | July 8–11, 2022 | 1,261 (RV) | – | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| The New York Times/Siena College | July 5–7, 2022 | 849 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 41% | 14% |
| Harvard/Harris | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,308 (RV) | – | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Emerson College | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 39% | 44% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | June 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Echelon Insights | June 17–20, 2022 | 1,030 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | June 15, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | – | 38% | 41% | 21% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 10–13, 2022 | 1,243 (RV) | – | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 30, 2022 | 1,173 (LV) | – | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Emerson College | May 24–25, 2022 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights | May 20–23, 2022 | 1,020 (LV) | – | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | May 19–22, 2022 | 1,360 (RV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Harvard/Harris | May 18–19, 2022 | 1,963 (RV) | – | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 17, 2022 | 1,120 (LV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 28 – May 2, 2022 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 50% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 1, 2022 | 1,096 (LV) | – | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Emerson College | April 25–26, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | April 22–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Morning Consult | April 22–25, 2022 | 2,004 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | April 21–23, 2022 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | April 19–22, 2022 | 1,187 (RV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris | April 20–21, 2022 | 1,966 (RV) | – | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights | April 18–20, 2022 | 1,001 (LV) | – | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | April 18, 2022 | 1,500 (LV) | – | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | March 31 – April 4, 2022 | 1,233 (RV) | – | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | April 3, 2022 | 1,205 (LV) | – | 38% | 43% | 19% |
| Marquette Law School | March 14–24, 2022 | 1,004 (A) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris | March 23–24, 2022 | 1,990 (RV) | – | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | March 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Echelon Insights | March 18–21, 2022 | 1,050 (RV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | March 15–21, 2022 | 873 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | March 20, 2022 | 1,193 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Emerson College | March 18–20, 2022 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | March 10–14, 2022 | 1,225 (RV) | – | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | March 8, 2022 | 1,194 (LV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 2–7, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 45% | 45% | 9% |
| Schoen Cooperman Research | March 2–6, 2022 | 800 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | February 24–27, 2022 | 1,532 (A) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| NewsNation | February 23–24, 2022 | 1,046 (RV) | – | 37% | 41% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris | February 23–24, 2022 | 2,026 (RV) | – | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights | February 19–23, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | February 23, 2022 | 1,367 (LV) | – | 42% | 38% | 20% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | February 16–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Emerson College | February 19–20, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | February 6, 2022 | 1,406 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | January 20–24, 2022 | 1,568 (A) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Morning Consult | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights | January 21–23, 2022 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Marquette Law School[e] | January 10–21, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | – | 43% | 33% | 24% |
| Harvard/Harris | January 19–20, 2022 | 1,815 (RV) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | January 13–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | January 8–9, 2022 | 1,430 (LV) | – | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| PMC/John Bolton Super Pac | January 6, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 5, 2022 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | December 17–19, 2021 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | December 18, 2021 | 1,411 (LV) | – | 34% | 39% | 27% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | December 9–13, 2021 | 1,558 (A) | – | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights | December 9–13, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | December 5, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | – | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports | November 22–23, 2021 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 45% | 23% |
| Wall Street Journal | November 16–22, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 46% | 45% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[permanent dead link] | November 12–18, 2021 | 1,013 (RV) | – | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | November 11–16, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | November 15, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 35% | 41% | 24% |
| Marquette Law School[f] | November 1–10, 2021 | 1,004 (A) | – | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | November 4–8, 2021 | 1,673 (A) | – | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| Suffolk University | November 3–5, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Emerson College | November 3–4, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | October 31, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | – | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris | October 26–28, 2021 | 1,578 (LV) | – | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | October 19–21, 2021 | 1,704 (A) | – | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Echelon Insights | October 15–19, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | October 17, 2021 | 1,366 (LV) | – | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Selzer and Company/Grinnell College | October 13–17, 2021 | 745 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 40% | 19% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | October 4–6, 2021 | 1,345 (LV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights | September 17–23, 2021 | 1,005 (RV) | – | 50% | 39% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 21–22, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | September 19–20, 2021 | 1,330 (LV) | – | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | September 9–14, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | September 4–5, 2021 | 1,357 (LV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Emerson College | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 16–17, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 43% | 20% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | July 30 – August 2, 2021 | 1,552 (A) | – | 47% | 37% | 16% |
| PMC/John Bolton Super Pac | July 8, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 22–24, 2021 | 1,592 (A) | – | 47% | 35% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | May 24–26, 2021 | 1,588 (A) | – | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | May 11–13, 2021 | 1,561 (A) | – | 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,106 (A) | – | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| PMC/John Bolton Super Pac | April 3–7, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 42% | 12% |
- Biden vs. Trump with Liz Cheney as an independent
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Liz Cheney Independent |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premise | September 2–5, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 37% | 42% | 21% | – |
| Echelon Insights | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 38% | 41% | 12% | 9% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | August 18–22, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 32% | 40% | 11% | 17% |
- Biden vs. Trump vs. Matthew McConaughey
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Matthew McConaughey |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group | August 5–8, 2022 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 39% | 14% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights | June 17–20, 2022 | 1,030 (RV) | – | 39% | 40% | 11% | 9% |
- Biden vs. Trump vs. Andrew Yang
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Andrew Yang Forward |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 39% | 8% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights | October 15–19, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 44% | 40% | 5% | 11% |
- Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léger | November 11–13, 2022 | 1,007 (A) | – | 33% | 35% | 32% |
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Marquette University | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,282 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 38% | 19% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 1,228 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | July 28 – August 1, 2022 | 1,152 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights | July 15–18, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | – | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 28 – May 2, 2022 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 46% | 19% |
| Marquette Law School | March 14–24, 2022 | 1,004 (A) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 33% | 29% |
| Morning Consult | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 39% | 17% |
| Marquette Law School[g] | January 10–21, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | – | 41% | 33% | 26% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | – | 43% | 36% | 21% |
| Emerson College | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights | April 16–23, 2021 | 1,043 (RV) | – | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,105 (A) | – | 41% | 25% | 34% |
- Biden vs. DeSantis with Trump as an independent
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Donald Trump Independent |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 23% | 21% | 10% |
- Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 33% | 28% |
| Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,107 (A) | – | 44% | 19% | 37% |
- Biden vs. Ted Cruz
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ted Cruz Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 37% | 20% |
| Morning Consult | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 39% | 16% |
| Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,105 (A) | – | 46% | 24% | 30% |
- Biden vs. Mitt Romney
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Mitt Romney Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Echelon Insights | March 18–21, 2022 | 1,050 (RV) | – | 41% | 35% | 24% |
| Emerson College | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 42% | 23% | 35% |
- Biden vs. Mike Pence
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Mike Pence Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| Marquette Law School | March 14–24, 2022 | 1,004 (A) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 33% | 29% |
| Morning Consult | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
- Biden vs. Liz Cheney
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Liz Cheney Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Premise | September 2–5, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 42% | 58% | – |
- Biden vs. Marco Rubio
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Marco Rubio Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
- Biden vs. Josh Hawley
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Josh Hawley Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 31% | 31% |
- Biden vs. Tom Cotton
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Tom Cotton Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 31% | 32% |
- Biden vs. Tim Scott
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Tim Scott Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 32% | 31% |
- Biden vs. Kristi Noem
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Kristi Noem Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 31% | 32% |
- Biden vs. Larry Hogan
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Larry Hogan Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 28% | 37% |
- Biden vs. Rick Scott
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Rick Scott Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 33% | 29% |
- Biden vs. Mike Pompeo
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Mike Pompeo Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 32% | 29% |
- Biden vs. Chris Christie
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Chris Christie Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 30% | 31% |
- Biden vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Generic Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | April 22–25, 2022 | 2,004 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 39% | 46% | 15% |
| Morning Consult | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 37% | 46% | 17% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 2, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | – | 38% | 45% | 17% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | October 12–17, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 42% | 51% | 7% |
| Harvard/Harris | October 12–13, 2022 | 2,010 (RV) | – | 38% | 49% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 12, 2022 | 1,110 (LV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 2–3, 2022 | 1,128 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | September 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 42% | 51% | 7% |
| Refield & Wilton Strategies | September 14–15, 2022 | 1,163 (LV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Harvard/Harris | September 7–8, 2022 | 1,854 (RV) | – | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 28, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | – | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | August 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 51% | 6% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | August 17, 2022 | 1,156 (LV) | – | 37% | 43% | 20% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | July 28 – August 1, 2022 | 1,152 (RV) | – | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | July 29, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | – | 36% | 42% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris | July 27–28, 2022 | 1,885 (RV) | – | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights | July 15–18, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | July 9, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | – | 39% | 43% | 18% |
| Harvard/Harris | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,308 (RV) | – | 39% | 45% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | June 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | June 15, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | – | 37% | 43% | 20% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 30, 2022 | 1,173 (LV) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Harvard/Harris | May 18–19, 2022 | 1,963 (RV) | – | 40% | 47% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 17, 2022 | 1,120 (LV) | – | 37% | 44% | 19% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 1, 2022 | 1,096 (LV) | – | 39% | 43% | 18% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | April 22–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| Harvard/Harris | April 20–21, 2022 | 1,966 (RV) | – | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights | April 18–20, 2022 | 1,001 (LV) | – | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | April 18, 2022 | 1,500 (LV) | – | 39% | 45% | 16% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | April 3, 2022 | 1,205 (LV) | – | 35% | 44% | 21% |
| Harvard/Harris | March 23–24, 2022 | 1,990 (RV) | – | 38% | 49% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | March 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | March 20, 2022 | 1,193 (LV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | March 8, 2022 | 1,194 (LV) | – | 37% | 42% | 21% |
| Schoen Cooperman Research | March 2–6, 2022 | 800 (LV) | – | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Harvard/Harris | February 23–24, 2022 | 2,026 (RV) | – | 39% | 51% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | February 23, 2022 | 1,367 (LV) | – | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | February 16–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | February 6, 2022 | 1,406 (RV) | – | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Harvard/Harris | January 19–20, 2022 | 1,815 (RV) | – | 39% | 49% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | January 13–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 40% | 51% | 9% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | January 8–9, 2022 | 1,430 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | December 5, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | – | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | – | 41% | 50% | 9% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | November 11–16, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | November 15, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 33% | 42% | 25% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | October 14–18, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 21–22, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 52% | 9% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | September 9–14, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | July 29 – August 3, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Echelon Insights | June 18–22, 2021 | 1,001 (RV) | – | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | June 16–20, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | May 12–18, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pence
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Mike Pence Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | June 18–22, 2021 | 1,001 (RV) | – | 45% | 36% | 19% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard/Harris | September 7–8, 2022 | 1,854 (RV) | – | 41% | 38% | 21% |
| Harvard/Harris | July 27–28, 2022 | 1,885 (RV) | – | 41% | 40% | 19% |
| Echelon Insights | July 15–18, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Harvard/Harris | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,308 (RV) | – | 39% | 37% | 23% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Harvard/Harris | May 18–19, 2022 | 1,963 (RV) | – | 41% | 38% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris | April 20–21, 2022 | 1,966 (RV) | – | 42% | 38% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris | March 23–24, 2022 | 1,990 (RV) | – | 40% | 38% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris | February 23–24, 2022 | 2,026 (RV) | – | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris | January 19–20, 2022 | 1,815 (RV) | – | 39% | 40% | 21% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | – | 42% | 37% | 21% |
| Harvard/Harris | October 26–28, 2021 | 1,578 (RV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Echelon Insights | April 16–23, 2021 | 1,043 (RV) | – | 43% | 31% | 26% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pompeo
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Mike Pompeo Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard/Harris | October 26–28, 2021 | 1,578 (RV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Tim Scott
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Tim Scott Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard/Harris | October 26–28, 2021 | 1,578 (RV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
- Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | April 22–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 39% | 49% | 12% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | – | 37% | 48% | 15% |
- Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | March 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| Schoen Cooperman Research | March 2–6, 2022 | 800 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | February 16–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Echelon Insights | January 21–23, 2022 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | January 13–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 41% | 51% | 8% |
- Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Bernie Sanders Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | July 19–20, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Morning Consult | April 22–25, 2022 | 2,004 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
- Phil Murphy vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Phil Murphy Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | April 22–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 33% | 49% | 18% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Rose Institute | October 11–26, 2022 | 5,050 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 51% | – |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
- Jerome Segal vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Jerome Segal Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies | October 5, 2022 | 1,006 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
- Mark Cuban vs. Elon Musk
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Mark Cuban |
Elon Musk |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | May 24–25, 2022 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 20% | 29% | 50% |
Timeline
See also
Notes
- ^ Under the 22nd Amendment, incumbent (and former) Presidents since 1951 have been ineligible for reelection after two elected terms (or one elected term and more than half of another term).
- ^ Amash served as a Republican from 2011 to 2019, then as an Independent from July 2019 to April 2020, and as a Libertarian from then until the end of his term in 2021.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Archived November 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
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