[A-List] UK state: EU vs. US crunch time

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Coming soon: the moment when Blair must choose between Europe and the US
By Rupert Cornwell
The Independent
23 January 2003

The Bush administration brushed aside European calls for a postponement of
an attack on Iraq yesterday, declaring that United Nations weapons
inspections would not work.

The President told Iraqi commanders they would be tried as war criminals if
they used weapons of mass destruction against invading US troops.

Such fierce talk makes life more uncomfortable for Britain and Tony Blair,
bringing nearer the moment when that consummate rider of two horses may
finally have to choose between the US and Europe.

Last night, as Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, arrived in Washington for
talks with Colin Powell, the Secretary of State, British diplomats were
saying, in effect, no problem. But even they could not ignore the insistence
of France, Germany and others that the inspectors must be given the time to
do their job and that any use of force against Saddam Hussein had to be
backed by a second Security Council resolution.

General Powell had seemed the closest to a sympathiser among Mr Bush's top
advisers. But even he signalled yesterday he had lost patience. "The
question isn't how much longer do you need for inspections to work.
Inspections will not work."

Hours later, Mr Bush stepped up the rhetoric. "We must not be fooled as in
the past," he said in remarks aimed at friends abroad as much as at a
cheering audience in St Louis. "He wants to play a game. But for the sake of
peace we must not let him. The resolutions of the Security Council will be
enforced."

He issued a separate warning to President Saddam and the "killers" in
Baghdad. Should the US go to war, he said, there would be "serious
consequences" for any Iraqi general or soldier who used weapons of mass
destruction on US troops. "My advice is, don't follow that order ­ or when
Iraq is liberated you will be tried and prosecuted as a war criminal."

But around the world, even in the US itself, opposition was growing to the
hard line in Washington and London. At a meeting of Nato ambassadors, France
and Germany blocked a decision on whether to authorise support measures in
any US-led war against Iraq. "The arguments were flying," one diplomat said.

Germany's Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, stated for the first time that
Germany would not back an Iraq war resolution in the Security Council, where
it takes over the rotating presidency next month. From Russia, a permanent
member of the council that opposes military action, came a report that the
US and Britain had already decided on mid-February to begin military action.

Although that date is at the earliest end of the likely spectrum, up to
150,000 American troops will be deployed by then, ready to attack.
Ratcheting up the pressure, Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, has
ordered two more aircraft carrier battle groups to the Gulf, bringing to
four the number based near Iraq.

Mr Bush's speech was part of an orchestrated campaign to meet the central
domestic criticism of his Iraq policy: that for all the belligerence, he has
not made the case for war.

If a crucial moment looms for Britain, Mr Bush has unfamiliar problems of
his own. A Washington Post­ABC News poll yesterday showed the approval
rating of a man who was until recently the most popular president in modern
history continuing to decline, to below 60 per cent from more than 90 per
cent after 11 September.

Worries about Iraq and the flagging US economy are starting to outweigh
support for his conduct of the "war on terrorism". Mirroring opinion in
Europe, seven out of 10 Americans believe the inspectors should be given
several months more to complete their work.

Washington is fighting back with its own PR ahead of the UN inspectors'
report to the Security Council on Monday. The White House has issued a
report called Apparatus of Lies, laying bare Baghdad's "brutal record of
deceit".

On Tuesday, Mr Bush will deliver his verdict in his State of the Union
address. Three days later, Tony Blair goes to Camp David, where a final
decision for war may be taken. That is, if it hasn't been taken already.