[A-List] Russia: bitter fruits of shock therapy

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Another A-List world exclusive of sorts occurred on 24 February when Mark
Jones wrote:

"I can't do justice to this right now becaus eof lack of time, but the idea
that Putin is 'moreconciliatory' to the US than is France, over Iraq--or
that Putin is more of a realist about Russia's status as a banana--seemes to
me to be wrong. There is huge loathing, hatred and bitterness to/for the USA
not only among the Russian masses, but more importantly, among the political
elites and the s-called oligarchs. There is an intense and widespread desire
for historical revenge, and this is ahred by Putin (despite his seeming
pro-US moves like his unprecedented willingness to admit US troops/bases
into Rusia's Central Asian "backyard")."

See http://lists.econ.utah.edu/pipermail/a-list/2003-February/023879.html

While other newspapers have reported on the Russian government's threat to
veto a second resolution on Iraq, this report is the most specific about the
underlying reasons for this position, citing explicitly the experience of
the 1990s.

------

Russia warns against imposing regime change
By Stefan Wagstyl in London and Andrew Jack in Moscow
Financial Times: March 5 2003

Russia on Tuesday warned the US and UK against planning regime change in
Iraq and repeating the bitter experiences of the former Soviet Union in
trying to force a new political order on the world.

"We are concerned about plans to impose democratic values upon entire
peoples by force... The Soviet Union had its own deplorable record of
imposing regimes of its liking and we all know the results," said Igor
Ivanov, the Russian foreign minister, in exclusive comments to the Financial
Times.

"The forced 'export of democracy' is likely to meet the same fate as the
'export of revolution'," he said.

"Unfortunately, experiments of this kind bear very high costs, especially
for those peoples on which they are conducted."

Mr Ivanov was speaking during a visit to London, where he met Jack Straw,
the British foreign secretary, to discuss the Iraq crisis.

He said the US and the UK had changed the focus of their arguments from the
United Nations-approved aim of disarming Iraq to changing the regime in Iraq
and launching democratic changes in the Arab world. Attempts to impose
political systems on Arab states would "play into the hands of extremists
acting under radical Islamic slogans", said Mr Ivanov.

He repeated earlier hints that Russia would be ready to use its UN Security
Council veto to stop any new resolution authorising the use of force. Russia
would block any resolution that would "directly or indirectly" justify the
use of force.

Arms inspectors were now working without any obstacles and should be allowed
to continue, he said.

Russia would support the use of force only as a last resort, when no other
means existed to eliminate a threat to international peace and security.
"This is not the case with Iraq right now."

But Mr Ivanov tempered his tough line with conciliatory remarks emphasising
that all Security Council members shared the same aim of disarming Iraq and
having reliable guarantees that it would never again possess weapons of mass
destruction. The preservation of unity on the council was vital to securing
Iraq's co-operation.

Meanwhile in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin lent support to the Turkish
parliament's decision to block US use of its military bases, in a further
indication of his opposition to a war on Iraq. In comments to the Russian
cabinet, Mr Putin signalled that the parliamentary vote was "the most
important development of the past week".

Russia has been sending out a wide range of signals on its stance, with Mr
Putin earlier this year saying that he could shift closer to the "tougher
measures" of the US position if Saddam Hussein blocked weapons inspectors.

However, in the past few weeks he has allied Russia increasingly with France
and Germany, stressing its opposition to war, a prolongation of weapons
inspections and the need for diplomatic and political means to resolve the
crisis.