[A-List] Iraq: the blowback begins

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

A new war beyond the war
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
Asia Times, March 21 2003

KARACHI - When the dust settles in Iraq, it could simply be the prelude to a
much longer and less defined war involving any number of militant groups in
addition to al-Qaeda.

These new battles against the interests of the US and its allies can be
expected to be of two types. The first will involve planned attacks by
militant organizations such as al-Qaeda; the second will be independent
assaults perpetrated by disgruntled elements drawn from the masses of the
Muslim world.

There is no dispute that the US has the overwhelming military might to crush
Saddam Hussein into submission, but such a one-sided and "unauthorized"
attack in the sense that it does not have United Nations backing is sure to
stir the Muslim world.

The most expected reaction is attacks by al-Qaeda. Individual groups with no
affiliation to al-Qaeda can also be expected to take action, notably in
Afghanistan and Israel.

Isolated incidents are also anticipated, as evidenced by the recent killing
of US and Canadian citizens in Yemen, where a Yemeni oil worker shot dead
his American supervisor, a Canadian and a Yemeni before killing himself on
Tuesday. The assailant is reported to have no links with any group.

Within the US, the country is on a high state of alert for the activation of
al-Qaeda cells. Another pressure point is sure to be Israel. The Lebanese
Shi'ite Hezbollah has already publicly stated that it plans attacks on
Israel. Although there is no hard link between al-Qaeda and Hezbollah on the
one side and with the Iraqi regime on the other, reports have emerged of the
Iraqi leadership providing Hezbollah with arms. There have also been reports
that al-Qaeda leader Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi is in southern Lebanon under the
protection of the Hezbollah. If Hezbollah indeed carries out its threats,
Israeli retaliation can be expected, possibly against Lebanon and even
Syria.

And in Afghanistan, where the snow has started to melt, heralding the
traditional beginning of military action in the strife-torn country, the
ever-growing resistance movement of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the Hezb-i-Islami
(HIA), will be stepping up its resistance to the presence of foreign troops
in the country.

Reports emerging from Afghanistan say that the HIA has held back its
activities in the past 15 days on the instructions of Hekmatyar to wait for
the attack on Iraq to begin. The HIA now includes Uzbek, Chechen and Arab
commanders, as well as two legendary mujahideen leaders of the anti-Soviet
resistance movement of the 1980s, Mullah Saifullah Mansoor and Maulana
Jalaluddin Haqqani, as well as a representative of Ismail Khan, the powerful
governor of Herat province who has not disguised his friendly terms with
anti-US forces in Afghanistan.

Apparently, a "post snow-fall strategy" has been devised that will include
attacks not only in the south and the southeast of the country, but also in
the capital Kabul and northern Afghanistan.

News reports on Thursday say that fierce fighting has in fact started in the
cities on Khost, Kunhar, Kandahar and Jalalabad. In response, about 1,000 US
troops have launched a raid on villages in the southeast in the biggest US
operation in just over a year.

Helicopters ferried troops from the US Army's 82nd Airborne Division to the
remote, mountainous area, according to US military officials in Washington.
They confirmed in a statement that the operation, code-named "Valiant
Strike", began with an early morning air assault near Kandahar, the former
spiritual headquarters of the Taliban.

Further afield, the situation in countries like Yemen, Egypt, Jordan,
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia could become critical as anti-US sentiments run
high in these nations. For example, in Karachi, the largest city of the
Muslim world, the artery that leads to the US consulate and the residence of
the US consul general has been completely shut down for fear of suicide
attacks.