[A-List] Will The US And Russia Go To War Over Caucasus,Caspian Sea Basin?

[Rick Rozoff <r_rozoff@xxxxxxxxx>]

1) South Ossetian Leader Fears Invasion From Georgia
2-3) Casus Belli?: Four Georgia Security Personnel
Killed On Abkhaz Border, Russian Troops Intervene
4) Colin Powell Is 'Thankful' To Putin For Agreeing To
Vacate South Caucasus, Leaving Area Free For US, NATO,
Western Oil Companies
5) Georgia's 'New' Crusader Flag To Fly Over EU
Headquarters
6) Latest Sorosite-State Department 'People Power'
Operation Targets Adjaria For 'Regime Change'
7) Letter From A Pakistani Friend On The Caucasus
Crisis
8) Commentary: Will The US And Russia Quarrel Over
Georgia?
9) US Military Trains Azerbaijani Navy To Patrol
Caspian Sea, Guard Oil Wells





1)
http://www.rferl.org/newsline/2-tca.asp

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
January 27, 2004

SOUTH OSSETIAN LEADERS FEAR NEW GEORGIAN AGGRESSION 


Eduard Kokoyty, president of the unrecognized Republic
of South Ossetia, has expressed concern that the
Georgian authorities are preparing to launch a
military campaign under the pretext of a crackdown on
smuggling in an attempt to bring his breakaway
republic back under the control of the central
Georgian government, Caucasus Press and Interfax
reported on 26 January. South Ossetian parliament
speaker Stanislav Kochiev similarly told the head of
the OSCE office in Tskhinvali, Gancho Ganchev, that
recent predictions by President Saakashvili and
Georgian Patriarch Ilia II that Georgia's territorial
unity will soon be restored have triggered alarm among
the population of South Ossetia, Interfax reported on
26 January. LF 
------------------------------------------------------
2)
http://www.rferl.org/newsline/2-tca.asp

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
January 27, 2004

SIX KILLED IN SHOOTOUT IN WESTERN GEORGIA 


Four Georgian police officers were killed on 26
January and seven more injured when an unidentified
armed group attacked a police patrol post in
Tsalendjikha Raion, Georgian media reported. Two of
the attackers also died in the exchange of fire, one
of whom was subsequently identified as a resident of
Abkhazia's Gali Raion. Caucasus Press claimed the
attackers were members of a Georgian-Abkhaz criminal
gang. Georgian Interior Minister Giorgi Baramidze, who
will travel to western Georgia on 27 January to
investigate the incident, linked the attack to a
recently launched Georgian crackdown on smuggling
across the internal border between the unrecognized
Republic of Abkhazia and Georgia. LF 
------------------------------------------------------
3)
http://www.interfax.com/com?item=Geor&pg=0&id=5683382&req=

Interfax (Russia)
January 27, 2004

4 Georgian policemen killed in Georgian-Abkhaz
conflict zone 

Zugdidi. (Interfax-AVN) - Four Georgian policemen died
in an exchange of fire with unidentified gunmen Monday
night in the Zugdidi district bordering on the
self-proclaimed republic of Abkhazia. 

"A group of gunmen attacked two police posts in the
Georgian- Abkhaz conflict zone in the Zugdidi district
killing four police officers," district police chief
Kakha Rapala told reporters on Tuesday. 

He said the personnel of the posts operated in the
12-kilometer security zone that has separated the
Georgian and Abkhaz sides after the armed conflict of
1992-1993. 

Rapala said that the exchange of fire stropped only
after an armored personnel carrier with Russian
peacekeepers arrived at the clash site. 

"At the sight of the combat vehicle of Russian
peacekeepers the attackers stopped fighting and fled,"
he said. 

The attackers numbering about 10 persons had entered
the Zugdidi district from Abkhazia. 

"Two attackers were also killed in the skirmish. When
they are identified we will be able to say something
more definite about the group's nature and
affiliation," Rapala said. 
A criminal case was opened and an investigation
launched, he said.
------------------------------------------------------
4)
http://www.geotimes.ge/gtnews.php?cat1=1#4565

Daily Georgia Times
January 27, 2004

Powell is thankful to Russia for willingness to talk
over Russian military bases in Georgia

-Powell expressed gratitude to the Russian President
and the Foreign Minister for their willingness to hold
negotiations on the issue of Russian military bases in
Georgia. 


(GT News) On January 26, U.S. Secretary of State Colin
Powell held a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister
Igor Ivanov in Moscow. 
The officials addressed the situation in Georgia,
including in breakaway Abkhazia, and the issue of
Russian military bases on the territory of Georgia. 
“We have agreed with the Georgian leadership that as
soon as the process of the nation of the new Georgian
government is completed, we will resume the activities
of the working group, including the group to deal with
the issue of military bases, to find solutions which
will be acceptable to both sides,” Igor Ivanov said at
a joint news briefing with Colin Powell on Monday. 
The U.S. Secretary of State said the United States’
interest in Georgia is to help the country build a
solid democracy. 
“Russia and the US can cooperate without any
complications. Our military presence there was to help
the Georgians deal with terrorist threats that existed
in Georgia,” Colin Powell said at the news briefing. 
Powell expressed gratitude to the Russian President
and the Foreign Minister for their willingness to hold
negotiations on the issue of Russian military bases in
Georgia. 
The U.S. Secretary of State and the Russian Foreign
Minister attended the inauguration ceremony of the new
President of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili on January 25
in Tbilisi. 
------------------------------------------------------
5)
http://www.geotimes.ge/gtnews.php?cat1=1#4566

Georgian Daily Times
January 27, 2004

Georgia’s new state flag to be erected at the building
of European Union

(GT News) On January 28, Georgia’s new president
Mikhail Saakashvili will replace the Georgia’s old
flag with the new state flag (five-cross flag approved
by the parliament on January 14, 2004) at the building
of European Union in Strasburg 
On January 26, five-cross flag was erected on the top
of the Georgian embassy in European Council. 
On January 28, Georgia’s new president Mikhail
Saakashvili is planning to make a report at the winter
session of Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly. 
Georgian MPs: Elene Tevdoradze, Natela
Patarkalishvili, Armaz Akhvlediani and Givi Shugharov
are attending the session of Council of Europe
Parliamentary Assembly which is held in Strasburg on
January 26-30. 
------------------------------------------------------
6)
http://www.geotimes.ge/gtnews.php?cat1=1#4564

Daily Georgian Times
January 27, 2004

New organization "Democratic Adjara" established 

(GT News) On January 27, the establishing meeting of
the new organization "Democratic Adjara" will be held
at the Tbilisi Philharmonic hall. 
New public movement is led by one of the members of
the United Democrats Edward Surmanidze. 
The key aim of the organization will be the conducting
elections and changing the government in the Adjara
Autonomous Republic. 
Surmanidze became MP in 1999 through the list of
Abashidze’s Democratic Revival party. Later he left
Abashidze’s party and became the member of the
Citizens’ Union, which was led by ex-President
Shevardnadze. 
The office of Democratic Adjara is also planned to be
opened in Adjarian capital Batumi. 
------------------------------------------------------
7)
[From a friend, Tari M., in Peshawar, Pakistan.]

Dear Rick,
           Your message regarding the happenings in
Georgia during the past few days is alarming. I am
saving it to my archives, since we may need to refer
to it again - soon. I read the message more than once
to get its full impact. I view these events as the
start of a new era, more qualitative in form than
[even] the aggression against Afghanistan and Iraq. 
 
The curent Georgian President asking all his people to
get military trarning is going to solve one serious
problem of the US, the shortage of manpower for her
empire, and there will be no more body bags landing at
US bases. He added,  'Preparation includes the
formation of a strong army, fleet" -- surely the fleet
will sail the Black Sea. 
 
President Putin appears to to be awaiting instructions
to vacate Moscow soon, after his Caucasus bases.  
 
"This is not an area where there should be competition
between the United States and any of your neighbors,"
says Saakashvilli'; surely Russia is not showing any
stomach for competition....
  
I wonder where is this row of surrendering leaders is
going to end.

Yours Sincerely, 
Tariq
------------------------------------------------------
8)
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?msg_id=3852127

Russian Information Agency (Novosti)
January 27, 2004

WILL RUSSIA AND THE USA QUARREL OVER GEORGIA? 

-It is a fact that the Transcaucasus region is where
the geostrategic interests of Russia and the USA
cross. The two countries' struggle for control over
the energy resources of the Caspian Sea and ways to
transport them has tightened the Caucasian knot in
world politics. The Transcaucasus, including Georgia,
is one of the geopolitical areas that determine the
balance of forces on the planet. 
-One indisputable US priority in the region is to
establish control over the strategic energy ellipse
that embraces 16 states, including part of Georgian
territory. The ellipse includes the whole of the
Caspian Sea and about 90% of Iran's territory that
links the Sea with the Persian Gulf and the Indian
Ocean. Prominent US political scientist Zbigniew
Brzezinski labelled the region the "Eurasian Balkans,"
which points to the key role of the Caucasus and
Transcaucasus in controlling Eurasia. Moreover, the
author of "The Grand Chessboard" thinks this is the
centre of world power. 
-US policy in the region focuses on financial
assistance to the Transcaucasian and Central Asian
countries in a bid to encourage them to sell their oil
and gas on the world markets bypassing Russia. 
-The rivalry of the leading world powers in the
Transcaucasus will grow stronger in the near future.
The developments we are witnessing now are only the
prelude to the main geopolitical game in the region. 



In one of his recent interviews with Russian
television's First Channel, US Secretary of State
Colin Powell said the goal of the US military presence
in Georgia was to help it ensure security in the
Pankisi Gorge. He stressed that there were no plans to
squeeze or throw anybody out of it. 

He was not telling the truth, though. It is a fact
that the Transcaucasus region is where the
geostrategic interests of Russia and the USA cross.
The two countries' struggle for control over the
energy resources of the Caspian Sea and ways to
transport them has tightened the Caucasian knot in
world politics. The Transcaucasus, including Georgia,
is one of the geopolitical areas that determine the
balance of forces on the planet. Russia has a rather
strong historical position in the region. 

A Terek settlement built in the 16th century at the
request of the North Caucasian rulers became one of
the first Russian fortresses in the region. Numerous
Adyg, Kabardin, Avar and other embassies came there to
seek Russia's protection from the Turks and Persians,
who forced the Caucasian ethnic groups into the
mountains. In the second half of the 18th century,
Georgian kings willingly agreed to rapprochement with
the Russian Empire, which they saw as a powerful ally
in the struggle against the Turks and Persians. Russia
did not conquer lands, oust the local population or
force Russification on them in its advance to the
Caucasus. No other country in the world has Russia's
experience in Caucasian policy. Moreover, the
bloodless advance of the Russians to the Caucasus is a
unique case in western Europe history. 

The visit of President Mikhail Saakashvili to Russia,
planned for early February, will become his first
official foreign engagement. This means that Tbilisi
views Moscow as a key player in the region. 

One indisputable US priority in the region is to
establish control over the strategic energy ellipse
that embraces 16 states, including part of Georgian
territory. The ellipse includes the whole of the
Caspian Sea and about 90% of Iran's territory that
links the Sea with the Persian Gulf and the Indian
Ocean. Prominent US political scientist Zbigniew
Brzezinski labelled the region the "Eurasian Balkans,"
which points to the key role of the Caucasus and
Transcaucasus in controlling Eurasia. Moreover, the
author of "The Grand Chessboard" thinks this is the
centre of world power. 

The USA cannot accept its energy dependence on other
players on the world scene, knowing that the price of
such dependence may prove to be too high. According to
the spring 2001 report of the Council on International
Relations, the USA has come too close to the brink of
the most serious energy crisis in its history.
Moreover, the USA has barely 3-5 years to solve its
energy problem. The authors of the report conclude
that America cannot attain energy independence. 

US policy in the region focuses on financial
assistance to the Transcaucasian and Central Asian
countries in a bid to encourage them to sell their oil
and gas on the world markets bypassing Russia. In
other words, the USA wants to preclude Russia's
monopoly on oil transportation. 

John Rockefeller used to say that he who controls oil
transport also controls oil production and refining.
This is especially true of the Caspian oil fields,
which are located far away from the oceanic
transportation routes. Russia's main geopolitical
advantage in the transportation of Caspian oil is that
it has the world's largest pipeline system. The output
of the fuel and energy complex exported by pipelines
accounts for 30% of Russia's trade. The overall length
of Russian mainlines is 217,000 kilometres and
Tengiz-Novorossiisk pipeline is the main export route
for Caspian oil. 

The rivalry of the leading world powers in the
Transcaucasus will grow stronger in the near future.
The developments we are witnessing now are only the
prelude to the main geopolitical game in the region.
However, it would be better for everyone concerned if
the sides did not view it as the endgame, where
victory for one side means defeat for the other. 

Moscow, Washington and Tbilisi must understand an
essential truth: when there is no stability and peace
in the Caucasus, no one in the triangle will gain what
it wants. For the USA, this means Caspian oil. So far,
investors are not convinced by projects to develop and
transport it, simply because of the lack of regional
stability. The main goals of Russia and Georgia are to
defeat separatism and preserve their territorial
integrity. And the main goal of everyone is to
eliminate international terrorism in the region. 

However, these goals can only be attained through
close co-operation between Moscow, Washington and
Tbilisi. The understanding of this may yet encourage
the sides to stabilise their relations and smooth over
the sharp angles in their triangle. 
------------------------------------------------------
8)
http://www.interfax.com/com?item=Azer&pg=0&id=5683379&req=

Interfax (Russia)
January 27, 2004

U.S. trains Azerbaijani Navy to protect oil wells 

Baku. (Interfax-Azerbaijan) - The U.S. is training the
Azerbaijani Navy to protect offshore oil
infrastructure, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry press
service said Monday. 

These training programs are part of the
U.S.-Azerbaijani cooperation plan, one of the purposes
of which is to train the Azerbaijani Navy to protect
oil and gas platforms and floating drilling units, the
press service said. 

The training will last until February 6. It involves
45 Azerbaijani naval officers and 18 U.S. servicemen. 

The first training exercises as part of the plan were
conducted in Baku in August 2003. 


 


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