[A-List] Iraq

[Bob Enoch <bobenoch@xxxxxxx>]

I think it is time to mention the dangers of under-estimating the Enemy in
Iraq.
We know that the Empire is there for the oil, and  that  they must therefore
stay,(if they can).
Given that these facts are entirely apparent in Baghdad, if not in Boise;
 how is it possible that the Empire could have been sufficiently stupid  (
or incompetent, isolated, arrogant, ignorant, etc. etc.)
to imagine that they could rob Iraq, and suspend its' sovereignty without,
at some point, facing an insurrection?

Since they did provoke this  confrontation with the Mahdi militia, I
conclude that they believe that their chances of smashing al-Sadr now are
better than they will be later. Since each month that passes makes it even
clearer that the promises which produced the Shia sufferance of
the occupation were a lie, I think they are right.
And since almost every decision taken
by the Coalition gauleiters from the beginning has contributed to
"instability" and "chaos", I daringly conclude that their intent was to
foster "instability', and "chaos" in which to conduct their attempt to
divide and rule.
In other words; knowing from the outset just what they intended to do to the
Iraqis, and having a pretty solid idea of how the Iraqis were likely to feel
about it , they are attempting to induce the inevitable rebellion
prematurely, while there remains a chance that al-Dawa, and al-Sistani might
stay out of it.
I forget which Roman consular was quoted as saying that while it is a fine
thing if your subject peoples can be brought to love you, it is more
important that they be taught to fear you.

Since the first ploy is not, and never was an option, and since the Iraqis
do not yet display fear ,  it follows that the current period is about
"teaching"
them.
I note that Iraq imports over half of its' food, and that its distribution
is controlled by the Coalition, a powerful weapon which they are using now
in Fallujah.
On the Israeli model.
There are other elements of that model available too.(I hope al-Sadr isn't
spending too much time in any one place. )

Now, I must register my disclaimer;
I am NOT saying that the Empire is omniscient, or invincible, or that they
are in complete control of events, or that they will succeed in "pacifying"
Iraq.

My point is that the circumstances to be faced by an occupier in Iraq are
and were wholly predictable, and we should beware of assuming that they have
no strategy, no plan, and indeed, that their affairs have somehow been
entrusted to a collection of Homer Simpsons.
("They want us out? Doh!)

Bob