[A-List] Re: [TNF] Saddam

["G. Daniel Bugel-Shunra" <daniel@xxxxxxxxxx>]

HCKL> Iraq will lose this battle of 2003, but the Iraqi War may not
HCKL> end. Suppose instead of fleeing Iraq as a refugee, as demanded
HCKL> by Bush, Saddam, after all resistance crumbles, escapes to a
HCKL> neutral nation or even a nation hostile the US, to set up an
HCKL> Iraqi government in exile, as MacArthur escaped from the
HCKL> Philippines to Australia, or General De Gaul setting up in
HCKL> London with Allied support. The US

The UN, you mean...

HCKL> may continue to recognize Saddam, whose popularity polls are
HCKL> ahead of Bushes, as head of the sole legitimate government of
HCKL> Iraq, and the unilateral US/UK action as being a violation of
HCKL> the UN Charter.

Interesting scenario, but quite unlikely. The role of that
organization seems to be over.

I think that quashing the UN was one of the major objectives of this
administration. The UN was never popular here, as Americans have
always perceived the notion of a 'world government', perceived as
telling them "what to do", as an insult to their freedom. Making the
UN irrelevant is entirely consistent with the previous (un)diplomatic
efforts of this administration (Kyoto, International Court of Justice,
tariffs, missile treaty with Russia, etc.).

HCKL> Suppose Saddam goes to Russia, France, North Korea, Cuba, or
HCKL> some Arabic nation, to continue to carry on war with guerilla
HCKL> forces for years. Would Bush demand Russia to turn over Saddam
HCKL> or face an invasion? It's going to be an interesting month.
HCKL> Saddam may survive more than one Bush.

If he survives, it is more likely that it will be like Idi Amin.
Nobody will follow a Saddam once he looses his leverage over the
people. But I agree that the resentment created by the massive
killings of the Gulf Blitz and by the continued presence of US forces
on Arab soil will indeed lead to a very long conflict, which won't end
until the Americans leave. I wouldn't be surprised if after the US
departure, Iraq would be ruled by someone like Bin Laden.

And I have no illusions about that conflict being limited to local
guerilla warfare only. 9/11 was just a foretaste of the insecurity
that Americans can start to expect.

I also wonder how long North Korea is going to sit and wait, before it
makes a preemptive strike. Wouldn't now be the best timing for them?

I wished that at least the Europeans would be sane enough to put up
some real obstacles to the US war effort. Threatening with a veto in a
security council declared irrelevant is just a symbolic act. How
terribly disappointing.

It feels as if Mesopotamia was not just the cradle of civilization,
but will also be it's grave.

Daniel

--
G. Daniel Bugel-Shunra
e-mail: daniel@shunra.net

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